Books: 'Trend and cycle decomposition'

1

Morley, James Christopher. A steady-state approach to trend/cycle decomposition. [St. Louis, Mo.]: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2004.

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2

Lippi, Marco. Diffusion of technical change and the decomposition of output into trend and cycle. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 1993.

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3

Zarnowitz, Victor. Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2002.

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4

Aguiar, Mark. Emerging market business cycles: The cycle is the trend. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.

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5

Bee Dagum, Estela, and Silvia Bianconcini. Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31822-6.

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6

Campbell, Sean D. A trend and variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio in housing markets. Washington, D.C: Federal Reserve Board, 2006.

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7

Quah, Danny. One business cycle and one trend from (many,) many disaggregates. Stockholm: Stockholm University,Institute for International Economic Studies, 1993.

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8

Schweitzer, Mark E. The UK labour force participation rate: Business cycle and trend influences. London: Bank of England, 2004.

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9

Laramie, Anthony J. Taxation, the rate of depreciation, the trend and the business cycle. [Edinburgh]: Heriot-Watt University, Dept. of Economics, 1992.

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10

Davies, Roy O. The innovative rate and Kalecki's theory of trend, unemployment and the business cycle. London: International Centre for Economics and Related Disciplines, 1988.

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11

Lettau, Martin. Understanding trend and cycle in asset values: Reevaluating the wealth effect on consumption. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2003.

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12

Lettau, Martin. Understanding trend and cycle in asset values: Bulls, bears and the wealth effect on consumption. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 2001.

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13

Laramie, Anthony J. A note on Kalecki's theory of the trend, unemployment and the business cycle: Implications for tax policy. [Edinburgh]: Heriot-Watt University, Dept. of Economics, 1995.

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14

French, Mark W. A nonlinear look at trend mfp grwoth and the business cycle: Result from a hybrid kalman/markov switching model. Washington, D.C: Federal Reserve Board, 2005.

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15

Smyth, C. E. Decreasing uncertainty in CBM-CFS3 estimates of forest soil carbon sources and sinks through use of long-term data from the Canadian Intersite Decomposition Experiment. Victoria, B.C: Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, 2010.

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16

Andrle, Michal, Andrew Berg, R. Armando Morales, Rafael Portillo, and Jan Vlcek. On the Sources of Inflation in Kenya. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198785811.003.0015.

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The authors develop a semi-structural, New Keynesian open-economy model with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics to study the sources of inflation in Kenya in recent years. They filter international and Kenyan data through the model to recover a model-based decomposition of most variables into trends (or potential values) and temporary movements (or gaps), including for the international and domestic relative price of food. The filtration exercise helps recover the sequence of domestic and foreign macroeconomic shocks that account for business cycle dynamics in Kenya over the last few years, with a special emphasis on the various factors (international food prices, monetary policy) driving inflation. The authors find that while imported food price shocks have been an important source of inflation, both in 2008 and more recently, accommodating monetary policy has also played a role, most notably through its effect on the nominal exchange rate.

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17

Dagum, Estela Bee, and Silvia Bianconcini. Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation. Springer London, Limited, 2016.

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18

Dagum, Estela Bee, and Silvia Bianconcini. Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation. Springer, 2018.

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19

Dagum, Estela Bee, and Silvia Bianconcini. Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation. Springer International Publishing AG, 2016.

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20

Schweitzer, Mark E. The UK labour force participation rate: business cycle and trend influences. London [Bank of England], 2004.

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21

Bluedorn, John C., and Daniel Leigh. Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence from the Views of International Forecasters. International Monetary Fund, 2018.

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22

Bluedorn, John C., and Daniel Leigh. Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence from the Views of International Forecasters. International Monetary Fund, 2018.

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23

Bluedorn, John C., and Daniel Leigh. Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence from the Views of International Forecasters. International Monetary Fund, 2018.

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24

Voisin, Claire. Decomposition of the Diagonal. Princeton University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691160504.003.0003.

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This chapter explains the method initiated by Bloch and Srinivas, which leads to statements of the following: if a smooth projective variety has trivial Chow groups of k-cycles homologous to 0 for k ≤ c − 1, then its transcendental cohomology has geometric coniveau ≤ c. This result is a vast generalization of Mumford's theorem. A major open problem is the converse of this result. It turns out that statements of this kind are a consequence of a general spreading principle for rational equivalence. Consider a smooth projective family X → B and a cycle Z → B, everything defined over C; then, if at the very general point b ∈ B, the restricted cycle Z𝒳b ⊂ X𝒳b is rationally equivalent to 0, there exist a dense Zariski open set U ⊂ B and an integer N such that NZsubscript U is rationally equivalent to 0 on Xsubscript U.

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25

Amra, Rashaad, Marek Hanusch, and Charl Jooste. When the Cycle Becomes the Trend: The Emerging Market Experience with Fiscal Policy During the Last Commodity Super Cycle. World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8712.

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26

Wu, Tommy, Wei Liao, and Dong He. Hong Kong's Growth Synchronization with China and the U. S.: A Trend and Cycle Analysis. International Monetary Fund, 2015.

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27

Wu, Tommy, Wei Liao, and Dong He. Hong Kong's Growth Synchronization with China and the U. S.: A Trend and Cycle Analysis. International Monetary Fund, 2015.

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28

Kumar, Abhishek, Sushanta Mallick, and Kunal Sen. Effects of productivity growth on domestic savings across countries: Disentangling the roles of trend and cycle. UNU-WIDER, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.35188/unu-wider/2020/912-9.

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Resource mobilization continues to be an important policy challenge for developing economies, raising questions as to what determines differences in saving behaviour across countries. Using a panel of 47 economies with at least 40 years of continuous time series data, we causally identify, using a range of approaches, that higher productivity growth leads to greater savings, thereby contributing to higher investment. The dynamics of such productivity shocks have been disentangled into trend and cyclical shocks to uncover that cyclical productivity shocks tend to have a strong positive effect on saving rates. Comparing two countries with different levels of productivity (high and low) in a counterfactual analysis, this result remains robust, and we reconfirm that large declines in productivity shocks were associated with large decline in saving rates. Countries should focus on promoting policies to boost productivity growth and thereby achieve higher savings instead of focusing on savings-induced policies alone.

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29

U. S Forest U.S Forest Service and Department of Agriculture, United States. Wood Decomposition and Its Role in the Forest Carbon Cycle : the FACE Wood Decomposition Experiment: The Dead Wood Detrital Pool Is Typically Classified into Standing-Dead and Downed-dead Material. Independently Published, 2022.

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30

Voisin, Claire. On the Chow ring of K3 surfaces and hyper-Kahler manifolds. Princeton University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691160504.003.0005.

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This chapter considers varieties whose Chow ring has special properties. This includes abelian varieties, K3 surfaces, and Calabi–Yau hypersurfaces in projective space. For K3 surfaces S, it was discovered that they have a canonical 0-cycle o of degree 1 with the property that the product of two divisors of S is a multiple of o in CH₀(S). This result would later be extended to Calabi–Yau hypersurfaces in projective space. The chapter also considers a decomposition in CH(X × X × X)ℚ of the small diagonal Δ‎ ⊂ X × X × X that was established for K3 surfaces, and is partially extended to Calabi–Yau hypersurfaces. Finally, the chapter uses this decomposition and the spreading principle to show that for families π‎ : X → B of smooth projective K3 surfaces, there is a decomposition isomorphism that is multiplicative over a nonempty Zariski dense open set of B.

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31

van Leeuwen, Richard. A Thousand and One Nights and the Novel. Edited by Waïl S. Hassan. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199349791.013.5.

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This chapter examines the influence of Alf layla wa layla (A Thousand and One Nights), the ingenious Arabic cycle of stories, on the development of the novel as a literary genre. It shows that the Nights helped shape the European novel in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. The chapter first explains how the French translation of the Nights and its popularity in Europe led to its incorporation in world literature, creating an enduring taste for “Orientalism” in many forms. It then considers how the Nights became integrated in modern Arabic literature and how Arabic novels inspired by it were used to criticize social conditions, dictatorial authority, and the lack of freedom of expression. It also discusses the Nights as a source of innovation for the trend of magical realism, as well as its role in the interaction between the Arab world and the West.

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32

West, Steven. Scream. Liverpool University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3828/liverpool/9781911325277.001.0001.

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Wes Craven's Scream (1996) emerged at the point where the early Eighties American slasher cycle had effectively morphed into the post-Fatal Attraction trend for Hollywood thrillers that incorporated key slasher movie tropes. Scream emerged as a spiritual successor to Wes Craven's unpopular but critically praised previous film New Nightmare (1994), which evolved from his frustration at having lost creative control over his most popular creation, Freddy Krueger, and rebirthed the character in a postmodern context. Scream appropriates many of the concepts, conceits, and in-jokes inherent in New Nightmare, albeit in a much more commercial context that did not alienate teenage audiences who were not around to see the movies that were being referenced. This book offers a full exploration of Scream, including its structure, its many reference points (such as the prominent use of Halloween as a kind of sacred text), its marketing (“the new thriller from Wes Craven” — not a horror film), and legacy for horror cinema in the new millennium.

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33

Pulakos, Elaine D., and Mariangela Battista, eds. Performance Management Transformation. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190942878.001.0001.

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No other talent process has been the subject of such great debate and emotion as performance management (PM). For decades, different strategies have been tried to improve PM processes, yielding an endless cycle of reform to capture the next “flavor-of-the-day” PM trend. The past 5 years, however, have brought novel thinking that is different from past trends. Companies are reducing their formal processes, driving performance-based cultures, and embedding effective PM behavior into daily work rather than relying on annual reviews to drive these. Through case studies provided from leading organizations, this book illustrates the range of PM processes that companies are using today. These show a shift away from adopting someone else’s best practice; instead, companies are designing bespoke PM processes that fit their specific strategy, climate, and needs. Leading PM thought leaders offer their views about the state of PM today, what we have learned and where we need to focus future efforts, including provocative new research that shows what matters most in driving high performance. This book is a call to action for talent management professionals to go beyond traditional best practice and provide thought leadership in designing PM processes and systems that will enhance both individual and organizational performance.

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34

Fensholt, Rasmus, Cheikh Mbow, Martin Brandt, and Kjeld Rasmussen. Desertification and Re-Greening of the Sahel. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.553.

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In the past 50 years, human activities and climatic variability have caused major environmental changes in the semi-arid Sahelian zone and desertification/degradation of arable lands is of major concern for livelihoods and food security. In the wake of the Sahel droughts in the early 1970s and 1980s, the UN focused on the problem of desertification by organizing the UN Conference on Desertification (UNCOD) in Nairobi in 1976. This fuelled a significant increase in the often alarmist popular accounts of desertification as well as scientific efforts in providing an understanding of the mechanisms involved. The global interest in the subject led to the nomination of desertification as focal point for one of three international environmental conventions: the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), emerging from the Rio conference in 1992. This implied that substantial efforts were made to quantify the extent of desertification and to understand its causes. Desertification is a complex and multi-faceted phenomenon aggravating poverty that can be seen as both a cause and a consequence of land resource depletion. As reflected in its definition adopted by the UNCCD, desertification is “land degradation in arid, semi-arid[,] and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climate variation and human activities” (UN, 1992). While desertification was seen as a phenomenon of relevance to drylands globally, the Sahel-Sudan region remained a region of specific interest and a significant amount of scientific efforts have been invested to provide an empirically supported understanding of both climatic and anthropogenic factors involved. Despite decades of intensive research on human–environmental systems in the Sahel, there is no overall consensus about the severity of desertification and the scientific literature is characterized by a range of conflicting observations and interpretations of the environmental conditions in the region. Earth Observation (EO) studies generally show a positive trend in rainfall and vegetation greenness over the last decades for the majority of the Sahel and this has been interpreted as an increase in biomass and contradicts narratives of a vicious cycle of widespread degradation caused by human overuse and climate change. Even though an increase in vegetation greenness, as observed from EO data, can be confirmed by ground observations, long-term assessments of biodiversity at finer spatial scales highlight a negative trend in species diversity in several studies and overall it remains unclear if the observed positive trends provide an environmental improvement with positive effects on people’s livelihood.

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35

Andeweg, Rudy B., Robert Elgie, Ludger Helms, Juliet Kaarbo, and Ferdinand Müller-Rommel, eds. The Oxford Handbook of Political Executives. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198809296.001.0001.

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The existence of a political executive is a key feature of any political system: from eminently democratic regimes to totalitarian dictatorships, and every shade in between. In recent decades the long-term trend of putting constitutional and democratic constraints on the political executive is reversed. In addition to an autocratic turn in some countries, internationalization, securitization and a growing need for coordination shift the balance between governments and other political institutions. This re-empowerment of the political executive has contributed to its rediscovery in political science. As the 37 chapters in this volume demonstrate, the past two decades have seen an impressive outpouring of research on political executives. Edited and written by 49 of the most distinguished scholars in the field, this Oxford Handbook of Political Executives combines substantive stocktaking with setting new agendas for the next generation of political executive research. The book is organized around five themes. Part I, Theorizing and Researching Political Executives is devoted to the theoretical and methodological approaches in the study of political executives. Part II looks at The Composition and Life Cycle of Political Executives, from the formation to the termination of successive governments. Part III discusses The Dynamics and Developments within the Executive, such as hierarchical relations and internal political processes. Part IV focusses on The Dynamics and Developments between the Executive and the Broader Political Context, including interactions with the bureaucracy and parliament. Part V is devoted to Political Executives Beyond the Democratic Nation State, such as the European Union and autocratic regimes.

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36

Richard, Kreindler, Wolff Reinmar, and Rieder Markus S. Commercial Arbitration in Germany. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/law/9780199676811.001.0001.

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This book provides a detailed commentary on and analysis of German arbitration law and practice. This title covers both domestic and international arbitration in all its stages. The work details the legal framework for German-related arbitration and provides practical guidance on the appropriate choices, with a specific focus on particularities of German law and practice. The book navigates along the life cycle of an arbitration, commencing with the arbitration agreement, continuing with the arbitral tribunal, the arbitral proceedings and interim relief, and concluding with the arbitral award including its recognition and enforcement. At each stage, the work combines exhaustive legal analysis, clear and concise presentation, and a practical and accessible approach. Arbitration in Germany continues to grow as the country builds on its reputation as a suitable venue for international arbitration. This trend is reflected in the increasing relevance of the German Institution of Arbitration (DIS), which currently has more than 1,150 members domestically and overseas, including numerous major trade organizations and chambers of commerce, leading German companies, judges, lawyers and academics. The number of arbitration cases under the DIS Rules has more than doubled since 2005 while statistics of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) show that Germany is the fifth most frequently chosen place of arbitration and German law is the fourth most frequently chosen law. Even where the place of arbitration is outside Germany, German arbitration law plays an increasingly important role for the recognition and enforcement of awards. This particular significance is highlighted by Germany's strong export-oriented economy and is mirrored in the fact that German parties are the second most frequently encountered nationality among parties in ICC arbitrations worldwide.

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37

Goswami, B. N., and Soumi Chakravorty. Dynamics of the Indian Summer Monsoon Climate. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.613.

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Lifeline for about one-sixth of the world’s population in the subcontinent, the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is an integral part of the annual cycle of the winds (reversal of winds with seasons), coupled with a strong annual cycle of precipitation (wet summer and dry winter). For over a century, high socioeconomic impacts of ISM rainfall (ISMR) in the region have driven scientists to attempt to predict the year-to-year variations of ISM rainfall. A remarkably stable phenomenon, making its appearance every year without fail, the ISM climate exhibits a rather small year-to-year variation (the standard deviation of the seasonal mean being 10% of the long-term mean), but it has proven to be an extremely challenging system to predict. Even the most skillful, sophisticated models are barely useful with skill significantly below the potential limit on predictability. Understanding what drives the mean ISM climate and its variability on different timescales is, therefore, critical to advancing skills in predicting the monsoon. A conceptual ISM model helps explain what maintains not only the mean ISM but also its variability on interannual and longer timescales.The annual ISM precipitation cycle can be described as a manifestation of the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) or the zonally oriented cloud (rain) band characterized by a sudden “onset.” The other important feature of ISM is the deep overturning meridional (regional Hadley circulation) that is associated with it, driven primarily by the latent heat release associated with the ISM (ITCZ) precipitation. The dynamics of the monsoon climate, therefore, is an extension of the dynamics of the ITCZ. The classical land–sea surface temperature gradient model of ISM may explain the seasonal reversal of the surface winds, but it fails to explain the onset and the deep vertical structure of the ISM circulation. While the surface temperature over land cools after the onset, reversing the north–south surface temperature gradient and making it inadequate to sustain the monsoon after onset, it is the tropospheric temperature gradient that becomes positive at the time of onset and remains strongly positive thereafter, maintaining the monsoon. The change in sign of the tropospheric temperature (TT) gradient is dynamically responsible for a symmetric instability, leading to the onset and subsequent northward progression of the ITCZ. The unified ISM model in terms of the TT gradient provides a platform to understand the drivers of ISM variability by identifying processes that affect TT in the north and the south and influence the gradient.The predictability of the seasonal mean ISM is limited by interactions of the annual cycle and higher frequency monsoon variability within the season. The monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) has a seminal role in influencing the seasonal mean and its interannual variability. While ISM climate on long timescales (e.g., multimillennium) largely follows the solar forcing, on shorter timescales the ISM variability is governed by the internal dynamics arising from ocean–atmosphere–land interactions, regional as well as remote, together with teleconnections with other climate modes. Also important is the role of anthropogenic forcing, such as the greenhouse gases and aerosols versus the natural multidecadal variability in the context of the recent six-decade long decreasing trend of ISM rainfall.

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38

Yang, Kun. Observed Regional Climate Change in Tibet over the Last Decades. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.587.

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The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is subjected to strong interactions among the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and biosphere. The Plateau exerts huge thermal forcing on the mid-troposphere over the mid-latitude of the Northern Hemisphere during spring and summer. This region also contains the headwaters of major rivers in Asia and provides a large portion of the water resources used for economic activities in adjacent regions. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the TP has undergone evident climate changes, with overall surface air warming and moistening, solar dimming, and decrease in wind speed. Surface warming, which depends on elevation and its horizontal pattern (warming in most of the TP but cooling in the westernmost TP), was consistent with glacial changes. Accompanying the warming was air moistening, with a sudden increase in precipitable water in 1998. Both triggered more deep clouds, which resulted in solar dimming. Surface wind speed declined from the 1970s and started to recover in 2002, as a result of atmospheric circulation adjustment caused by the differential surface warming between Asian high latitudes and low latitudes.The climate changes over the TP have changed energy and water cycles and has thus reshaped the local environment. Thermal forcing over the TP has weakened. The warming and decrease in wind speed lowered the Bowen ratio and has led to less surface sensible heating. Atmospheric radiative cooling has been enhanced, mainly through outgoing longwave emission from the warming planetary system and slightly enhanced solar radiation reflection. The trend in both energy terms has contributed to the weakening of thermal forcing over the Plateau. The water cycle has been significantly altered by the climate changes. The monsoon-impacted region (i.e., the southern and eastern regions of the TP) has received less precipitation, more evaporation, less soil moisture and less runoff, which has resulted in the general shrinkage of lakes and pools in this region, although glacier melt has increased. The region dominated by westerlies (i.e., central, northern and western regions of the TP) received more precipitation, more evaporation, more soil moisture and more runoff, which together with more glacier melt resulted in the general expansion of lakes in this region. The overall wetting in the TP is due to both the warmer and moister conditions at the surface, which increased convective available potential energy and may eventually depend on decadal variability of atmospheric circulations such as Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation and an intensified Siberian High. The drying process in the southern region is perhaps related to the expansion of Hadley circulation. All these processes have not been well understood.

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Books on the topic 'Trend and cycle decomposition'

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