Dissertations / Theses: 'Transmission of shocks'

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Unalmis, Deren. "Essays on the transmission of shocks : The role of financial contagion, and oil price shocks." Thesis, University of York, 2009. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.507483.

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Hansson, Denise. "Housing Finance and the Transmission of Mortgage Spread Shocks." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-415538.

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Credit market frictions, captured by mortgage spreads, are potentially an equally important driver behind mortgage rate innovations as monetary policy. Possibly a significant driver of business cycles. Yet, the effect of such shocks on the economy has barely received any attention in empirical research. By estimating a SVAR for 12 EU countries, I find that mortgage spread shocks have a significant effect on GDP, consumption, residential investment and house prices. The magnitude of their effects is comparable to a monetary policy shock. I also find that the transmission mechanism of such shocks is influenced by mortgage market characteristics. A high mortgage debt-to-GDP ratio and widespread use of mortgage equity withdrawal, compared to a lower ratio and less or no use, potentially imply a stronger response in house prices and residential investment of 0.5 and 1 percent respectively.

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Vinas, Frédéric. "Three essays on the transmission of financial shocks to the real economy." Thesis, Paris 1, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PA01E032.

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Cette thèse en finance s'intéresse à la transmission de chocs financiers à l'économie réelle. Dans une première partie, avec Mathias Lé, nous analysons le lien entre le secteur bancaire et l'économie réelle de 1989 à 2012. Les questions posées sont : quel est l'usage du crédit bancaire par les firmes ? Comment cet usage change-t-il en fonction des caractéristiques des firmes ? Ce travail montre que plus l'entreprise est petite, plus le crédit bancaire est utilisé pour financer l'investissement ; plus l'entreprise est grande, plus il est utilisé pour financer les besoins en liquidité. Ainsi l'article fournit une grille de lecture des effets réels potentiels en période de rationnement du crédit. Pourquoi cette différence dans l'usage du crédit ? L'article propose plusieurs pistes en réponse. La deuxième partie de cette thèse s'intéresse aux canaux de transmission de chocs financiers avec une approche par business models bancaires. Les questions sont : en période de crise financière, certains business models sont-ils plus résilients ? Quels sont les canaux de fragilités par business models ? L'article montre que le risque de liquidité n'est pas uniformément réparti entre business models. Dès lors ne pas prendre en compte cette hétérogénéité dans la réglementation conduit à une réglementation centrée sur des exigences en capital et au développement de fragilités financières. Dans la dernière partie de cette thèse, je propose un modèle théorique analysant l'impact de la décision publique sur l'amplitude des chocs financiers. L'article montre la réglementation comme un outil du décideur politique pour calibrer l'arbitrage entre croissance et stabilité financière
This thesis in Finance analyzes the transmission of financial shocks to the real economy. First we analyze, with Mathias Lé, the bank-firm relationship. The addressed questions are: what is the role of bank credit ? How does this role change with firm features ? The results show that the smaller the firm, the higher the use of bank credit to fund investment. The higher the firm size, the higher the use of bank credit to fund liquidity needs. But why such a discrepancy ? The paper proposes several answers. All in all, this work provides a framework to analyze potential real effects of credit rationing, by firm size. The second part of the thesis analyzes the transmission channels of financial shocks with a bank business model approach. The addressed questions are: are some business models more resilient in financial crisis ? What are the fragility channels by business models ? The paper shows that the liquidity risk is not uniformly distributed across business models. Thus, not considering such heterogeneity in the definition of the regulation leads to (I) concentrate the regulation on capital requirements (like in Basel I & II) and (II) it enables the development of financial fragilities. Eventually, the paper shows the complementarity between the separation of banking activities and a liquidity regulation. Third, I propose a model to highlight the impact of regulation choice on the magnitude of financial shocks. The paper shows the regulation as a tool of the policy maker to arbitrate between growth and financial stability. Thus, in a low growth period, the policy maker seeking a new electoral mandate has incentives to loosen the financial regulation

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Sloan, Andrew Stephen. "Regional macroeconomic dynamics in Britain : investigating structural heterogeneity in transmission of shocks." Thesis, University of Hull, 2009. http://hydra.hull.ac.uk/resources/hull:1672.

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This thesis is a study of the macrodynamics of the British regions. It reports the existence of heterogeneity in British regional macrodynamics and furthermore demonstrates, through three related research programmes, for the first time how differences in short run and long run dynamics of the regions are related to structural factors reflecting their different industrial composition.

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Jebabli, Ikram. "Essays on the transmission of shocks between financial, energy and food markets : transmission channels, measurement, effets and management." Thesis, Université Clermont Auvergne‎ (2017-2020), 2017. http://theses.bu.uca.fr/nondiff/2017CLFAD007_JEBABLI.pdf.

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Cette thèse par essais a pour objectif de contribuer à une meilleure compréhension de la transmission au marché alimentaire des chocs provenant des marchés financier et énergétique. Le premier essai étudie l’efficience du marché alimentaire. Le deuxième essai examine les transmissions de rendements et de volatilités entre les trois marchés. Quant au troisième essai, il s’intéresse à l’analyse de la dépendance extrême entre ces marchés. Nos principaux résultats permettent de souligner l’impact de la crise financière de 2007-2008 et la financiarisation des marchés de commodités dans l’intensification aussi bien des transmissions de volatilités et de prix que des dépendances (notamment les dépendances de queue) entre ces marchés. Ils permettent également de souligner l’efficacité de la couverture du risque par la construction de portefeuilles diversifiés incluant les commodités alimentaires
The aim of this three essays thesis is to contribute to a better understanding of the transmission of shocks from energy and financial markets to food market commodities. The first essay investigates the efficiency of food market. The second essay studies returns and volatilities transmission between the three markets. Extreme dependence between these markets is analyzed in the third essay. Our main results underline the impact of the 2007-2008 financial crisis in the intensification of returns and volatilities spillovers between these markets as well as tail dependencies (namely tail dependencies). They allow also underlining hedge effectiveness by the construction of diversified portfolios including food commodities

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Muir, Jonathan A. "Societal Shocks as Social Determinants of Health." The Ohio State University, 2021. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1615597384677722.

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Fischer, Manfred M., Florian Huber, and Michael Pfarrhofer. "The regional transmission of uncertainty shocks on income inequality in the United States." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2019. http://epub.wu.ac.at/6774/1/2018%2D01%2D10_FischerHuberPfarrhofer_Inequality.pdf.

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This paper explores the relationship between household income inequality and macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States. Using a novel large-scale macroeconometric model, we shed light on regional disparities of inequality responses to a national uncertainty shock. The results suggest that income inequality decreases in most states, with a pronounced degree of heterogeneity in terms of the dynamic responses. By contrast, some few states, mostly located in the Midwest, display increasing levels of income inequality over time. Forecast error variance and historical decompositions highlight the importance of uncertainty shocks in explaining income inequality in most regions considered. Finally, we explain differences in the responses of income inequality by means of a simple regression analysis. These regressions reveal that the income composition as well as labor market fundamentals determine the directional pattern of the dynamic responses.
Series: Working Papers in Regional Science

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Abou-Zaid, Ahmed S. "The transmission of U.S. financial and monetary shocks to emerging MENA stock markets /." Available to subscribers only, 2008. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1564026641&sid=11&Fmt=2&clientId=1509&RQT=309&VName=PQD.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Southern Illinois University Carbondale, 2008.
"Department of Economics." Keywords: Monetary shocks, MENA, Middle East and North Africa, Emerging markets, Shocks, Monetary announcements, Pass through Includes bibliographical references (p. 77-83). Also available online.

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Lukmanova, Elizaveta, and Katrin Rabitsch. "New VAR evidence on monetary transmission channels: temporary interest rate versus inflation target shocks." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2018. http://epub.wu.ac.at/6681/1/wp274.pdf.

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We augment a standard monetary VAR on output growth, inflation and the nominal interest rate with the central bank's inflation target, which we estimate from a New Keynesian DSGE model. Inflation target shocks give rise to a simultaneous increase in inflation and the nominal interest rate in the short run, at no output expense, which stands at the center of an active current debate on the Neo-Fisher effect. In addition, accounting for persistent monetary policy changes reflected in inflation target changes improves identification of a standard temporary nominal interest rate shock in that it strongly alleviates the price puzzle.
Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

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Fischer, Manfred M., Florian Huber, and Michael Pfarrhofer. "The transmission of uncertainty shocks on income inequality: State-level evidence from the United States." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2018. http://epub.wu.ac.at/6368/1/us%2Dstates_uncertainty.pdf.

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In this paper, we explore the relationship between state-level household income inequality and macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States. Using a novel large-scale macroeconometric model, we shed light on regional disparities of inequality responses to a national uncertainty shock. The results suggest that income inequality decreases in most states, with a pronounced degree of heterogeneity in terms of shapes and magnitudes of the dynamic responses. By contrast, some few states, mostly located in the West and South census region, display increasing levels of income inequality over time. We find that this directional pattern in responses is mainly driven by the income composition and labor market fundamentals. In addition, forecast error variance decompositions allow for a quantitative assessment of the importance of uncertainty shocks in explaining income inequality. The findings highlight that volatility shocks account for a considerable fraction of forecast error variance for most states considered. Finally, a regression-based analysis sheds light on the driving forces behind differences in state-specific inequality responses.
Series: Working Papers in Regional Science

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Shin, Hyun Joon. "Data-oriented study of the international transmission of monetary policy shocks : the case of Korea /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 2000. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9999314.

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Hassouneh, Islam. "An assessment of the impacts of recent food market shocks on food prices using price transmission analysis." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/81564.

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Los mercados mundiales agroalimentarios se han visto recientemente afectados por shocks importantes tales como crisis alimentarias y el estallido del mercado de los biocombustibles. La presente tesis contribuye de forma significativa a la literatura existente sobre la transmisión de precios, analizando los impactos que estos shocks de mercado han tenido sobre los niveles de precios de los alimentos y la estabilidad de los mismos. Para ello se aplican modelos de econometría de series temporales recientemente desarrollados. La tesis estudia tres cuestiones principales en tres artículos científicos, que constituyen el elemento central de la misma. En el primer artículo, un modelo de corrección del error de cambio de régimen se aplica a series de precios mensuales para determinar el impacto de la crisis de la EEB sobre la dinámica de los precios del bovino a lo largo de la cadena comercial en España. Diferentes regímenes dentro del modelo representan diferentes comportamientos de precios ante distintas condiciones de mercado. Para esclarecer si el efecto de la EEB sobre la transmisión vertical de precios depende de la magnitud de la crisis, se construye un índice de información sobre la EEB que se utiliza para determinar el cambio de régimen. Los resultados sugieren que la crisis de la EEB afecta a los productores de carne y a los minoristas de forma diferente. Mientras que los precios al consumo no se ajustan ante la crisis, los precios al ganadero sí que lo hacen. La magnitud del ajuste depende de la magnitud de la crisis de la EEB. En el segundo artículo, un modelo bivariante de corrección del error de transición suave se aplica al estudio de los precios mensuales de las aves de corral para analizar los efectos que la gripe aviar ha tenido sobre la transmisión de los precios a lo largo de la cadena comercial de aves en Egipto. Al igual que en el artículo anterior, se construye un índice para reflejar el nivel de información que los consumidores tienen sobre la crisis, el cual se utiliza en el modelo como variable de transición entre distintos regímenes. Si bien los índices de información se han utilizado ampliamente para estudiar los impactos de las crisis alimentarias en los países desarrollados, este trabajo es el primero en utilizarlos para estudiar los efectos de estas crisis en países en vías de desarrollo. Nuestros resultados sugieren que los ajustes de precios ante desequilibrios del mercado dependen de la magnitud de la crisis de la gripe aviar. Además, estos ajustes tienen consecuencias muy diferentes para el equilibrio del mercado: durante la crisis los minoristas utilizan su poder de mercado para aumentar los márgenes de comercialización. Por el contrario, los márgenes del mayorista disminuyen. Los resultados también sugieren que los índices de información sobre las crisis contribuyen a una mejor comprensión de los efectos económicos de las mismas en los países en desarrollo.
Food markets worldwide have been strongly affected by recent shocks such as food scares and the outbreak of the biofuels market. The present thesis makes a significant contribution to the existing literature on price transmission by shedding light on the impacts that these food market shocks have had on food price levels and stability. To do so, recent developments in time series econometrics are applied. Three specific objectives have been pursued in three papers that constitute the main body of the dissertation. In the first paper, a regime-switching vector error correction model is applied to monthly price data to assess the impact of BSE outbreaks on price relationships and patterns of transmission among farm and retail markets for bovine in Spain. Different regimes within the model represent different price behavior under different market conditions. To evaluate whether different magnitudes of the BSE food scare elicit different food price responses, a BSE food scare information index is developed and used as the variable determining regime-switching. Results suggest that BSE scares affect beef producers and retailers differently. While consumer prices are not found to respond to BSE scares, producer prices are adjusted as a response to the crisis. The magnitude of the adjustment is found to depend on the magnitude of the food scare. In the second paper, a bivariate smooth transition vector error correction model is applied to monthly poultry price data to analyze the effects that avian influenza has had on price transmission along the Egyptian poultry marketing chain. As in the previous paper, in order to reflect consumer awareness of the crisis, an avian influenza food scare information index is developed and used within the model as a transition variable. While food scare information indices have been used to assess the economic impacts of food scares on developed countries, ours is the first attempt to use them in the context of a developing country. Our results show that price responses to deviations from the market equilibrium parity depend on the magnitude of the avian influenza crisis. Further, these adjustments are found to have very different implications for market equilibrium: during the crisis retailers use their market power to increase marketing margins. In contrast, wholesaler margins are found to decline. Results also suggest that food safety information indices contribute to a better understanding of the economic effects of food scare crises in developing countries. In the last paper, error correction models estimated both using multivariate local linear regression and conventional parametric techniques are applied to assess price linkages and price transmission patterns between food and energy prices in Spain. More specifically, the models study the links between biodiesel, sunflower and crude oil prices. Results suggest the existence of a longrun, equilibrium relationship between the three prices studied. Biodiesel is the only variable that adjusts to deviations from this long-run relationship. Local linear regression techniques show that the speed of adjustment of biodiesel prices is faster when biodiesel is relatively cheap than when it is expensive. Energy prices are found to influence sunflower oil prices through short-run price dynamics.

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Kganetsano, Tshokologo A. "The transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Botswana." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2007. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/7988.

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Macroeconomic stability is one of the most important national objectives in any country. However, economies are often subjected to a number of shocks (internal and external), which can be destabilising, produce volatility and make it difficult to achieve and maintain economic stability. Consequently, various policies are used to help deal with the various shocks that may affect the economy. Of all the available policies, monetary policy appears to have been ever more at the centre of macroeconomic policymaking. Meanwhile, for monetary policy to be effective, there is a need for a better understanding of the transmission mechanism, i.e., the process through which monetary policy decisions are transmitted into changes in real output and inflation. Whereas extensive research on the transmission mechanism has been conducted in developed countries, such work in developing countries, especially in Africa is lacking. This could be due to the fact that it was not long time ago, around the 1990s that countries in Africa started adopting the more modem central bank operations in a market-based economic and financial system characterised by indirect monetary policy. Such operations require an understanding of the transmission mechanism. Lack of empirical analysis of the monetary transmission mechanism in Botswana and developing countries of Africa in general, is the main motivating factor behind this thesis. The main objective of this thesis is, therefore, to estimate the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Botswana. Three different, but complementary techniques (the Narrative Approach, Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis and the Structural Approach involving the estimation of a small structural model for Botswana economy) are used. Results from these methods tell a consistent story and indicate that monetary policy in Botswana affects real output and inflation through the interest rate channel, while the exchange rate channel is not operational. The credit channel is also active but not strong. The structural approach also indicates that devaluation is contractionary in Botswana, but more research is necessary before firmer conclusions could be made.

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Charleroy, Rémy. "External shocks and monetary policy in emerging countries." Thesis, Paris 1, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015PA010031.

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Chocs externes et politique monétaire dans les pays émergents
We investigate the conditional correlation between exchange rate and inﬂation by using a multivariate BEKK GARCH model. This framework is tested on 20 emerging countries independently of each other and it allows one to consider the macroeconomic variables as having a nonlinear relationship over time. We show that the less credible a country is in applying an IT framework because of its monetary objectives or its interventions in the foreign exchange rate markets, the higher the interactions between both variables are. We also show that the adoption of an inﬂation target allows the decoupling of variables when the inﬂation volatility increases, and that the estimated central bank’s reaction function explains the diminution in conditional correlation when the exchange rate or both variables volatility augments. By analyzing the evolution of exchange rate pass-through we investigate the degree of vulnerability of macroeconomic variables in BRICS since the mid-1990s when they experience an external shock. Wefocus our study on the two main theories that explain the reduction of macroeconomic variables volatility: the ”good policy” theory with the adoption by central banks of an inﬂation targeting framework coupled with a ﬂexible exchange rate regime and the ”good luck” theory with the reduction of external shock persistence. The distinction between the theories is made by testing several time-varying parameters vector autoregressive models with diﬀerent priors on VAR parameters for the structural changes and on the variance-covariance matrix for the stochastic volatility. Among other results, we conclude that the ”good luck” theory seems to be the dominant factor that explain the reduction in the vulnerabilities of BRICS to an external shock and that the 2008 ﬁnancial crisis does not lead to a signiﬁcant increase in the ERPT compared to previous crisis. The recent ﬁnancial crisis has heightened the interest in the impact of ﬁnancial sector developments on the macroeconomic condition of countries. By employing a rolling-window Vector Auto-Regressive method based on monthly data for a time span between January 2001 and March 2013, this article sets up a comprehensive ﬁnancial conditions index for a set of major emerging countries. The index sheds light on the various triggers of ﬁnancial crises during this period and captures both domestic developments as well as global spillover eﬀects. Index dynamics exhibit an overall abrupt slowdown due to the 2007-2008 ﬁnancial crisis, precipitated primarily through a global liquidity squeeze and overall ﬁnancial sector strain. In some countries, rising volatility of ﬁnancial conditions thereafter has substantially been sparked by nominal eﬀective exchange rate movements. Tested on its forecasting applicability, the inclusion of macroeconomic and ﬁnancial variables enables the index to also perform well as a leading indicator for business cycles

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Brunelin, Stéphanie. "Essays on food security in sub-Saharan Africa : The role of food prices and climate shocks." Phd thesis, Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I, 2014. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01011786.

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La crise alimentaire de 2008 a suscité un regain d'intérêt pour les questions agricoles et de sécurité alimentaire dans les pays en développement. Partant du constat que près de 27% de la population d'Afrique Sub-saharienne souffre de malnutrition, cette thèse a pour objectif de contribuer à une meilleure compréhension des causes complexes de l'insécurité alimentaire. Le premier chapitre étudie les mécanismes de transmission des variations du prix mondial du riz aux prix domestiques dans trois pays ouest-africain: le Sénégal, le Tchad et le Mali. Les résultats indiquent que le prix du riz importé à Dakar et le prix du riz local à Bamako répondent de façon asymétrique aux variations du prix mondial. Le chapitre 2 teste la présence d'obstacles aux échanges agricoles entre pays d'Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre. Il ressort de l'analyse que le passage des frontières est coûteux. Toutefois, le coût associé au passage de la frontière est plus faible entre pays membre d'une même union économique et monétaire. Le chapitre 3 a pour objectif le renforcement des systèmes d'alertes précoces des crises alimentaires existants au Sahel. Il montre qu'il est possible d'anticiper les crises de prix avec six mois d'avance en analysant les mouvements passés des prix des céréales. Enfin, le chapitre 4 s'intéresse à la vulnérabilité des ménages face aux chocs pluviométriques. Il révèle que les ménages ruraux au Burkina Faso n'ont pas la capacité d'assurer ou d'absorber ces chocs climatiques.

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Badolo, Félix. "Chocs de prix, vulnérabilité climatique et sécurité alimentaire dans les pays en développement." Thesis, Clermont-Ferrand 1, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013CLF10416/document.

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Sur la période 2006-2008, les prix de la plupart des produits agricoles ont connu une hausse spectaculaire. Un des facteurs explicatifs de cette flambée des prix est le changement climatique. En effet, l’instabilité pluviométrique et les températures extrêmes affectent négativement les récoltes agricoles et entraînent une baisse de l’offre alimentaire sur les marchés internationaux qui contribue à la hausse des prix agricoles. La flambée des prix agricoles et le changement climatique soulèvent de sérieuses préoccupations en ce qui concerne l’inflation et le bien être des populations dans le monde et surtout dans les pays pauvres dépendants des marchés internationaux. Dans un premier chapitre, nous montrons à partir de modèles économétriques sur séries temporelles que la hausse du prix du pétrole et les fluctuations du dollar américain sont les principaux facteurs de la hausse des prix internationaux agricoles. Dans un deuxième chapitre, à l’aide d’un modèle de cointégration non linéaire, nous mettons en évidence le fait que les hausses du prix du riz sur le marché international se transmettent plus rapidement aux marchés intérieurs du Burkina Faso que les baisses. Dans un troisième chapitre, nous montrons que la hausse du prix international du riz a un effet négatif sur la pauvreté et les inégalités de revenu au Burkina Faso. Le quatrième chapitre met en évidence l’effet négatif et significatif de la variabilité climatique sur la sécurité alimentaire dans les pays en développement. Cet effet apparait plus élevé dans les pays africains. Il ressort de cette thèse que les pays en développement et plus particulièrement les pays africains sont fortement vulnérables aux chocs de prix alimentaires et au changement climatique. Cette vulnérabilité s’explique par le fait que ces pays dépendent des importations alimentaires et ont un secteur agricole sensible au climat. Des initiatives de protection sociale des populations pauvres sont nécessaires compte tenu de l’accès limité à la nourriture engendré par la flambée des prix alimentaires. Des investissements viables pour une croissance agricole soutenue sont aussi nécessaires. Il peut s’agir d’investissements pour l’amélioration des infrastructures rurales et des services agricoles ainsi que pour la recherche de nouvelles pratiques agricoles moins sensibles aux aléas climatiques
Over the period 2006-2008, the prices of most of agricultural commodities considerably increased. One of the explanatory factors of this surge in prices is climate change. Indeed, rainfall instability and extreme temperatures negatively affect agricultural crops and lead to reduced food supply in international markets, which contributes to the rise in food prices. Soaring food prices and climate change raise serious concerns regarding inflation and welfare of households in the world and especially in poor countries that depend on food imports. In a first chapter, using econometric models applied to temporal series, we show that rising oil prices and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar are the main causes of the rise in world food prices. In a second chapter, using the threshold cointegration tests, we highlight the fact that the imported rice prices in the local markets of Burkina Faso respond more rapidly to increases than to decreases in the world price. In a third chapter, we show that the increase in the world rice price has a negative effect on poverty and income inequality in Burkina Faso. The effect is lower in the rice-producing areas but remains negative. The fourth chapter highlights the significant and negative effect of climate variability on food security in developing countries. The effect is higher in African countries than in other countries. The main message of this thesis is that developing countries and especially African countries are highly vulnerable to food price shocks and to climate change. This vulnerability might be explained by the fact that these countries depend on food imports and have an agricultural sector sensitive to climate variability. Initiatives for the social protection of poor households are required due to limited food access caused by soaring food prices. Investments for sustained agricultural growth are also required. These are for example investments for the improvement of rural infrastructure and agricultural services as well as development of new agricultural practices less sensitive to climate

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Nzengue, Pegnet Christian. "Le canal du capital bancaire, voie de transmission des chocs réels et financiers." Thesis, Bordeaux 4, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012BOR40011/document.

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Cette thèse est consacrée à l'étude de la transmission des chocs réels et financiers en Europe, en traitant le canal du capital bancaire. La démarche suivie consiste à combiner des approches théoriques et empiriques de façon à mettre en évidence empiriquement l'hétérogénéité de transmission au niveau européen et l'ampleur du canal du capital bancaire. Le premier chapitre consiste à faire un tour d’horizon sur les fonds propres et la structure financière des banques, tout en analysant leur impact au niveau micro et macroéconomique. D'après l’analyse de la littérature relative à ce champ, le processus de transmission semble bien influencé par la spécificité des banques et leur niveau de fonds propres réglementaires. La contrainte exercée sur ces derniers détermine l’ampleur de la transmission des chocs. Le deuxième chapitre est consacré à l'étude des déterminants de la réaction des banques face à un choc. D'après les résultats, le niveau ex ante des fonds propres mais également les différentes composantes du capital réglementaire influencent la réaction des banques. Le troisième chapitre analyse les effets de Bâle I et II sur le mécanisme de transmission des chocs à partir d’un modèle d’équilibre général. Les résultats des simulations montrent que la prise en compte simultanée d’un canal du capital bancaire et d’un mécanisme d’accélérateur financier amplifie la propagation des chocs monétaires à travers un effet prime de liquidité. Le dernier chapitre est consacré à examiner un aspect particulier de la réglementation prudentielle : la résolution des défaillances des institutions financières. L’accent est mis sur les banques d’importance systémique. L’analyse des politiques de résolution adoptées montre que ces dernières ne permettent pas de réduire le risque moral. Aussi, pour prévenir de leur défaut, des règles de fermeture sont mises en place. À cette fin, une modélisation théorique conduit à conclure que des sanctions monétaires, couplées à une surveillance accrue peuvent limiter les incitations des banques à prendre des risques excessifs. Cette présente thèse a apporté de nouveaux résultats par rapport à la littérature et elle a montré le rôle à court et long terme des différents éléments de la structure du bilan des banques résultant de l'estimation du modèle VECM
In this thesis, we study the transmission of real and financial shocks in Europe focusing on the bank capital channel. In our approach, we consider both theoretical and empirical issues. The ai mis to empirically emphasize the heteregeneity in the transmission of shocks at a European level and the extent of the bank capital channel. In Chapter 1, we do a survey on the structure of bank capital and balance sheet to analyse their impact at micro and macro levels. Considering the existing literature on bank capital and transmission channel, the transmission process seems to be influenced by banks’ specificities and by their level of regulatory capital. Regulatory constraint on bank capital determines the magnitude of the transmission of shocks. In Chapter 2, we study the determinants of banks’ reaction to a shock. Or results show that, the ex ante level of capital and the various components of regulatory capital significantly impact banks’ behaviour. In Chapter 3, we focus on the impact of Basel I and II regulatory frameworks on the transmission of shocks from a general equilibrium model. The simulation results point out that considering simultaneously the bank capital channel and the financial accelerator mechanism increases the propagation of monetary shocks through the liquidity premium effect. In Chapter 4, we examine a singular aspect of the prudential regulation : the resolution of failing financial institutions. We focus on the systemic importance banks. Current policy statements have not reduced moral hazard behaviour of such financial institutions. Thus, to prevent the catastrophic consequences of their failure, bankruptcy laws have been adopted. Considering a theoretical model, we conclude that monetary sanctions, strengthen by stronger monitoring pressures may limit banks’ incentives to take excessive risks. This thesis provides new results to the existing literature. It emphasizes the role of the several components of bank balance sheet structure in both short and long runs, resulting from an estimated VECM

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Huber, Florian, Manfred M. Fischer, and Philipp Piribauer. "The role of US based FDI flows for global output dynamics." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2017. http://epub.wu.ac.at/5427/3/wp239.pdf.

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This paper uses a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to analyze the relationship between FDI inflows and output dynamics in a multi-country context. The GVAR model enables us to make two important contributions: First, to model international linkages among a large number of countries, which is a key asset given the diversity of countries involved, and second, to model foreign direct investment and output dynamics jointly. The country-specific small-dimensional vector autoregressive submodels are estimated utilizing a Bayesian version of the model coupled with stochastic search variable selection priors to account for model uncertainty. Using a sample of 15 emerging and advanced economies over the period 1998:Q1 to 2012:Q4, we find that US outbound FDI exerts a positive long-term effect on output. Asian and Latin American economies tend to react faster and also stronger than Western European countries. Forecast error variance decompositions indicate that FDI plays a prominent role in explaining GDP fluctuations, especially in emerging market economies. Our findings provide evidence for policy makers to design macroeconomic policies to attract FDI inflows in the respective countries.
Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

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Murgo, Daniel O. "Essays On Political Economy." FIU Digital Commons, 2010. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/149.

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The first chapter analizes conditional assistance programs. They generate conflicting relationships between international financial institutions (IFIs) and member countries. The experience of IFIs with conditionality in the 1990s led them to allow countries more latitude in the design of their reform programs. A reformist government does not need conditionality and it is useless if it does not want to reform. A government that faces opposition may use conditionality and the help of pro-reform lobbies as a lever to counteract anti-reform groups and succeed in implementing reforms. The second chapter analizes economies saddled with taxes and regulations. I consider an economy in which many taxes, subsidies, and other distortionary restrictions are in place simultaneously. If I start from an inefficient laissez-faire equilibrium because of some domestic distortion, a small trade tax or subsidy can yield a first-order welfare improvement, even if the instrument itself creates distortions of its own. This may result in "welfare paradoxes". The purpose of the chapter is to quantify the welfare effects of changes in tax rates in a small open economy. I conduct the simulation in the context of an intertemporal utility maximization framework. I apply numerical methods to the model developed by Karayalcin. I introduce changes in the tax rates and quantify both the impact on welfare, consumption and foreign assets, and the path to the new steady-state values. The third chapter studies the role of stock markets and adjustment costs in the international transmission of supply shocks. The analysis of the transmission of a positive supply shock that originates in one of the countries shows that on impact the shock leads to an inmediate stock market boom enjoying the technological advance, while the other country suffers from depress stock market prices as demand for its equity declines. A period of adjustment begins culminating in a steady state capital and output level that is identical to the one before the shock. The the capital stock of one country undergoes a non-monotonic adjustment. The model is tested with plausible values of the variables and the numeric results confirm the predictions of the theory.

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Martínez, Alfonso Laneydi. "Cambios en la transmisión de shocks desde Estados Unidos hacia América Latina y el Caribe a raíz de la crisis : vulnerabilidades y desafíos." Thesis, Sorbonne Paris Cité, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015USPCA089/document.

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Traditionnellement, les mouvements cycliques de l’économie Etats-Unienne ont été déterminants dans la croissance globale, et particulièrement dans l´Amérique Latine et la Caraïbe, étant donné le rôle indiscutable joué par ce pays en tant que moteur de l’économie internationale depuis la fin de la Seconde guerre mondiale. Le début du XXIe siècle et spécialement la récente crise économique (2007-2009) à donné lieu à un intense débat international autour du découplage («decoupling» en anglais). Les épisodes relativement courts de désynchronisation économique dans certains zones géographiques durant la crise a été sans précédent, et a ouvert une fenêtre pour l'étude de l'impact (présent et/ou en devenir) des changements géoéconomiques et géopolitiques récents sur la scène internationale. Cette thèse cherche évaluer les changements dans la transmission de chocs des Etats Unis vers l’Amérique Latine et la Caraïbe, à la lumière de la récente crise économique internationale. Les Etats-Unis maintiennent une double dimension ou une dualité dans son importance économique pour l'Amérique Latine et les Caraïbes: d'abord, en tant que principal acteur de l'hémisphère et le principal partenaire commercial, et d'autre part, pour leur rôle dans l'architecture monétaire et financière internationale. La préservation de son hégémonie économique sur la région repose principalement sur ce dernier pilier, sur lequel la région a peu de capacité d'influence. Cela confirme encore la centralité économique des États-Unis dans la région, en dépit des changements majeurs dans les dynamiques économiques bilatérales, basées sur l´influence, de plus en plus hétérogènes, des chocs originaires de ce pays
Historically, United States has been considered the undisputed engine of the world economy; therefore, the cyclical movements of its economy have been crucial to global growth, particularly to Latin America and the Caribbean. Since the beginning of XXI century, particularly following the recent economic crisis (2007-2009), a number of major changes has emerged, in the global geopolitical and geo-economic context; marked by new dynamics of "North-South” and "South –South” interrelations. These changes in conjunction with the emergence of the international debate on the theory of “decoupling", has opened a window to study the influence of the context of the recent global crisis on the economic synchronization and the transmission of shocks from United States to Latin America and the Caribbean. This research assesses the changes in the transmission of economic shocks from US to the region, in the context of the recent international crisis. Major changes are verified in the relative importance of the trade channel that links United States to Latin America and the Caribbean due to a substantial increase in the commercial ties of the region with China; at the same time, the reinforcement of the monetary and financial channel in the transmission of shocks. The role of the United States in the current international monetary and financial architecture continues to be the essential foundation that preserves its economic centrality to Latin America and the Caribbean, in an increasingly heterogeneous region in its responses to shocks originated in the US economy
Históricamente, Estados Unidos ha sido considerado el motor indiscutible de la economía mundial, así,los movimientos cíclicos de su economía han sido determinantes en el crecimiento global y, en particular, en América Latina y el Caribe. Desde inicios del siglo XXI y, en particular, a raíz de la recientecrisis económica (2007-2009), han emergido un conjunto de cambios trascendentales en el contexto geopolítico y geoeconómico mundial; a raíz de nuevas dinámicas de interrelación “Norte-Sur” y “Sur-Sur”. Dichos cambios, unidos a la emergencia del debate internacional sobre la teoría del “desacoplamiento”, han abierto una ventana al estudio de la influencia del contexto de la reciente crisis económica internacional sobre la sincronización económica y la transmisión de shocks desde Estados Unidos hacia América Latina y el Caribe. La presente investigación evalúa cambios en la transmisión de shocks desde Estados Unidos hacia la región en el contexto de la reciente crisis económica internacional.Se verifican modificaciones en la relevancia relativa del canal comercial en la transmisión desde Estados Unidos hacia América Latina y el Caribe debido al incremento sustancial de los vínculos comerciales con China; al mismo tiempo y un reforzamiento del canal monetario-financiero en la transmisión de shocks. El rol de Estados Unidos en la actual arquitectura monetario-financiera internacional se erige en el pilar fundamental que continúa privilegiando su centralidad económica en una región cada vez más heterogénea en su respuesta shocks originados en este país

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Majoul, Amira. "Transmission du cycle économique des Etats Unis au reste du monde : le cas des pays émergents." Thesis, Lyon 2, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014LYO22002/document.

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La question de la transmission internationale des cycles a reçu une attention considérable en raison de l’intensification de la globalisation économique et financière. La problématique générale de cette thèse s’inscrit dans le prolongement de la littérature consacrée à cette question. Plus précisément, elle focalise son attention sur l’analyse de la transmission du cycle des Etats-Unis sur les pays émergents. Elle comporte trois chapitres. Le premier, en se basant sur une nouvelle approche économétrique en termes de modèle Global VAR, s’attache à étudier l’effet des chocs provenant des Etats-Unis sur les pays émergents. Il confirme l’idée que les Etats-Unis jouent un rôle important dans la transmission des cycles économiques étant donné leur poids dans l’économie mondiale. Le second chapitre propose d’étudier la transmission financière des Etats-Unis en s’intéressant à la crise des subprimes sur ces pays. L’estimation du modèle switch à probabilité variée développée indique que la persistance des stress financiers, le durcissement des conditions du crédit et l’augmentation du risque de non-solvabilité bancaire ont été les causes fondamentales de la transmission financière. La volatilité de l’indice boursier américain a été le facteur clé de la contamination avec tous les pays étudiés. Le troisième chapitre est consacré à étudier si les pays émergents sont en mesure d’adopter des politiques budgétaires contracycliques pouvant atténuer les chocs provenant de l’extérieur. En utilisant le modèle à seuil avec transition lisse en panel (le modèle PSTR), ce chapitre confirme que la politique budgétaire dans les pays émergents est procyclique en période de ralentissement économique et aussi lorsque la dette publique dépasse le seuil critique. De ce fait, une solide position budgétaire est fondamentale pour assurer la stabilité macroéconomique
The issue of international transmission cycles has considerably received attention due to the increasing economic and financial globalization. Our thesis is in line with the literature dedicated to this question. More specifically, we focusour attention on the analysis of the transmission cycle of the United States to emerging countries. It consists of three chapters. The first one, based on a new econometric approach in terms of Global VAR model, aims to study the effect of shocks from the U.S. to emerging countries. The main resultconfirms the idea that the United States plays an important role in the transmission of economic cycles given their weight in the world economy. The second chapter proposes to study the financial transmission of the United States by focusing on the subprime crisis on these countries. The estimation of time varyingtransitionprobability (TVTP) Markov switchingmodel indicates that the persistence of financial stress, the tightening of the conditions of the credit and the increase of the risk of Banking solvency constitute the major determinants of the financial transmission. The US stock market volatility is the key factor transmission channel for all the studied countries. The third chapter is devoted to investigate whether emerging countries are able to adopt countercyclical fiscal policies to mitigate the impact from outside. Using the threshold model with smooth transition panel ( the PSTR model ), this chapter confirms that fiscal policy in emerging countries is procyclicalin the slowdown periodand also when public debt exceeds the critical threshold. Therefore, a strong fiscal position is fundamental to ensure macroeconomic stability

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PESCE, ANTONIO. "ESSAY ON ECONOMIC CYCLES IN EMERGING AND ADVANCED COUNTRIES:SYNCHRONIZATION, INTERNATIONAL SPILLOVERS AND THE DECOUPLING HYPOTHESIS." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/4375.

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Questo lavoro contribuisce al dibattito sul “decoupling delle Economie emergenti (EE) rispetto alle Economie Avanzate (EA)” rispondendo principalmente alle seguenti domande: “La vulnerabilità delle EE a schock esterni (siano essi reali o del credito) provenienti dalle EA è cambiata nel tempo? E’ cresciuta o si è ridotta, come implica l’ipotesi del decoupling?” Al fine di misurare l’impatto che un eventuale schock esterno avrebbe esercitato sulle EE in diversi periodi degli ultimi decenni, sono stati eseguiti esperimenti di analisi controfattuale utilizzando un modello econometrico Time Varying Panel VAR con coefficienti fattorizzati. Le analisi mostrano che negli ultimi trenta anni le EE sono diventate meno vulnerabili a shock provenienti dalle EA, siano essi di natura reale o shock del credito. Sebbene questo risultato supporti l’idea del decoupling, è importante notare che la resilienza delle EE a shock esterni è evoluta nel tempo in maniera non progressiva ma piuttosto evidenziando fasi di più forte resilienza seguite da fasi di minore resilienza e vice versa; un “sentiero a onde” non ancora pienamente considerato nella letteratura economica. Le EE sono inoltre risultate più vulnerabili a shock del credito rispetto a shock reali; questa maggiore vulnerabilità relativa ha raggiunto il suo picco negli anni più recenti.
This work aims to contribute towards the debate on “decoupling of Emerging Economies (EEs) from the Advanced Economies (AEs)” by addressing the following main questions: “Has the EEs’ vulnerability to external shocks (both real and credit shocks) coming from AEs changed over time? If so, has it grown or decreased, as the decoupling hypothesis claims?” In order to measure the impact that external shocks would have on the EEs’ GDP growth in different periods of last decades, counterfactual experiments were performed using an econometric Time Varying Panel VAR model with factorized coefficients. The analyses show that over the last thirty years EEs have become less vulnerable to shocks spreading from the AEs. Despite this represents evidence in favour of the decoupling hypothesis, it is important to note that EEs’ resilience to external shocks has changed in a non-progressive manner over time, with phases of greater resilience followed by others of lower resilience, and vice versa; this outlines a “wave-like” path whose evidence has yet been fully analyzed in the economic literature. Moreover, the EEs have shown to be more vulnerable to credit shocks than to real ones; this greater relative vulnerability has reached its peak in the most recent years.

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Moleka, Elvis Musango. "Inflation dynamics and its effects on monetary policy rules." Thesis, University of Bath, 2015. https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.687344.

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This thesis examines dynamic relationships between inflation and monetary policy in a sample of African economies using quarterly data over the period 1980:01 to 2012:04. The literature on inflation dynamics and monetary policy focuses on developed economies, with little attention devoted to the African economies, which is potentially explained by the fact that in the past monetary policy played second fiddle because of fiscal policy dominance following episodes of high inflation and stabilization policies that occurred in the 1980's. This thesis fills an important gap in assessing African's monetary policy. The thesis predominantly uses the Vector-Autoregression (VAR) framework to examine the monetary policy frameworks of the African economies. The thesis finds that an interest rate shock on average explain a more significant proportion of the variance in the output gap and inflation than the exchange rate, in terms of analysing the decomposition of shocks to the economy. This shows a shift in the monetary policy focus away from exchange rate management to interest rate targeting as the African economies have become more market oriented. The monetary policy reveal strong asymmetric responses with respect to the macroeconomic variables when inflation exceeds its threshold value. The analysis suggests that monetary policy in the African economies is regime-dependent, propagated through the inflation thresholds, such that the authorities strongly implement policy changes when inflation goes beyond a certain threshold. The thesis reveals that by taking into account the prior belief of the monetary authorities, it helps produce better estimates of the performance of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, as it combines prior information with the sampling information which is contained in the data. The overall novelty of the thesis is that some African economies are adopting inflation targeting policies instead of exchange rate management. It is imperative that the subsequent inflation targeting frameworks will achieve monetary policy objectives for the African economies and the use of interest rate management should be continued.

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Peabody, Alan Bowe. "Applying shock damping to the problem of transmission line cascades." Thesis, McGill University, 2004. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=84308.

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Early in the 20th Century, the design and construction of high-voltage overhead electric power lines began. In the nearly 100 years since those first lines were built, the progressive collapse of large numbers of structures has been a continuing problem. These large progressive collapses are known today as cascades.
While not all structural failures result in cascades, longitudinal cascades begin with a failure in the structural system that maintains tension in the overhead wires. These failures are represented most simply by a broken wire. Broken wires cause dynamic loads on the towers much higher than the intact wire tensions.
This research tests the hypothesis that adding supplemental springs and mechanical dampers to electric transmission towers can help control the dynamic forces on towers that lead to cascades. Two new methods of incorporating springs and dampers into towers were invented: the "post spring-damper" and the "rotating crossarm spring-damper." A case study modeling a typical 230 kV line using the finite element dynamics program ADINA (ADINA 2003) was used to test these two new methods.
Both the post spring-damper and the rotating crossarm spring-damper proved to be effective. They substantially reduce the peak dynamic loads while dissipating a large fraction of the total energy released by broken wires.

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Keegan, Sean J. "The relationship between muscle activity and shock transmission during treadmill running." Virtual Press, 2000. http://liblink.bsu.edu/uhtbin/catkey/1177977.

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Ground contact results in the generation of a heel-strike transient that propagates through the musculoskeletal system. The inability to attenuate the heel-strike-induced shock wave is a possible factor in the development of various gait pathologies and overuse-type injuries, such as knee osteoarthrosis, stress fractures, and low back pain. It is hypothesized that prolonged running will result in increased shock transmission at the tibia and sacroiliac joint during conditions of controlled velocity/stride mechanics. Subjects performed an extended running trial for 25-minutes at 75% HRReserve. EMG data of the vastus medialis, vastus lateralis, and tibialis anterior and accelerometer data from the tibial tuberosity and sacrum were recorded at one-minute intervals. Accelerometer data at the tibial tuberosity did show a significant increase during the run protocol. Linear regression of EMG frequency and tibial shock also demonstrated a significant relationship. An extended running protocol will lead to increases in tibia shock acceleration independent of stride mechanics.
School of Physical Education

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Elder, David James, and d. elder@crc-acs com au. "Optimisation of parametric equations for shock transmission through surface ships from underwater explosions." RMIT University. Aerospace, Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering, 2006. http://adt.lib.rmit.edu.au/adt/public/adt-VIT20080212.105012.

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Currently shock effects on surface ships can be determined by full scale shock trials, Finite Element Analysis or semi empirical methods that reduce the analytical problem to a limited number of degrees of freedom and include hull configurations, construction methods and materials in an empirical way to determine any debilitating effects that an explosion may have on the ship. This research has been undertaken to better understand the effect of hull shape on surface ships' shock response to external underwater explosions (UNDEX). The study is within the semi empirical method category of computations. A set of simple closed-form equations has been developed that accurately predicts the magnitude of dynamic excitation of different 2- D rigid-hull shapes subject to far-field UNDEX events. This research was primarily focused on the affects of 2-D rigid hull shapes and their contribution to global ship motions. A section of the thesis,

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Dawson-Scully, Ken. "Protective effects of heat shock on synaptic transmission in the flight system of Locusta migratoria." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1998. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp01/MQ28190.pdf.

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Härmark, Johan. "Structural studies of microbubbles and molecular chaperones using transmission electron microscopy." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Strukturell bioteknik, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-186882.

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Ultrasound contrast agents (CAs) are typically used in clinic for perfusion studies (blood flow through a specific region) and border delineating (differentiate borders between tissue structures) during cardiac imaging. The CAs used during ultrasound imaging usually consist of gas filled microbubbles (MBs) (diameter 1-5 μm) that are injected intravenously into the circulatory system. This thesis partially involves a novel polymer-shelled ultrasound CA that consists of air filled MBs stabilized by a polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) shell. These MBs could be coupled with superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles (SPIONs) in order to serve as a combined CA for ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging. The first three papers (Paper A-C) in this thesis investigate the structural characteristic and the elimination process of the CA. In Paper A, two types (PVA Type A and PVA Type B) of the novel CA were analyzed using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) images of thin sectioned MBs. The images demonstrated that the SPIONs were either attached to the PVA shell surface (PVA Type A) or embedded in the shell (PVA Type B). The average shell thickness of the MBs was determined in Paper B by introducing a model that calculated the shell thickness from TEM images of cross-sectioned MBs. The shell thickness of PVA Type A was determined to 651 nm, whereas the shell thickness of PVA Type B was calculated to 637 nm. In Paper C, a prolonged blood elimination time was obtained for PVA-shelled MBs compared to the lipid-shelled CA SonoVue used in clinic. In addition, TEM analyzed tissue sections showed that the PVA-shelled MBs were recognized by the macrophage system. However, structurally intact MBs were still found in the circulation 24 h post injection. These studies illustrate that the PVA-shelled MBs are stable and offer large chemical variability, which make them suitable as CA for multimodal imaging. This thesis also involves studies (Paper D-E) of the molecular chaperones (Hsp21 and DNAJB6). The small heat shock protein Hsp21 effectively protects other proteins from unfolding and aggregation during stress. This chaperone ability requires oligomerization of the protein. In Paper D, cryo-electron microscopy together with complementary structural methods, obtained a structure model which showed that the Hsp21 dodecamer (12-mer) is kept together by paired C-terminal interactions.The human protein DNAJB6 functions as a very efficient suppressor of polyglutamine (polyQ) and amyloid-β42 (Aβ42) aggregation. Aggregation of these peptides are associated with development of Huntington’s (polyQ) and Alzheimer’s (Aβ42) disease. In Paper E, a reconstructed map of this highly dynamic protein is presented, showing an oligomer with two-fold symmetry, indicating that the oligomers are assembled by two subunits.

QC 20160527

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Mariano, Silvio Luiz. "Analise numerica e experimental do indice de vibro-impacto em alavancas de transmissão mecanica." [s.n.], 2005. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/264950.

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Orientador: Janito Vaqueiro Ferreira
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Eletrica
Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-04T09:11:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Mariano_SilvioLuiz_M.pdf: 10538477 bytes, checksum: b5e594a3783a5571c8face1a74dae202 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005
Resumo: Este trabalho apresenta a análise numérica e experimental do índice de vibro-impacto em alavancas de transmissão mecânica. Foram desenvolvidos modelos de alavanca que consideram não-linearidades na estrutura. Métodos para quantificação do vibro-impacto foram obtidos na literatura e implementados para o levantamento de curvas, as quais indicam a variação do índice de Vibro-impacto com relação à variação dos parâmetros dos modelos desenvolvidos. A técnica da Transformada de Hilbert também foi implementada para levantamento das forças não-lineares atuantes nos modelos. Foram utilizadas três bancadas para identificação das forças não-lineares atuantes e validação da técnica salientada, que utiliza sinais de força, deslocamento, velocidade e aceleração. As curvas de rigidez não-Hnear foram identificadas coerentemente, as quais tiveram validação pelo levantamento da rigidez das mesmas bancadas por medições estáticas. Dois modelos numéricos de alavanca, utilizando massas concentradas, foram estudados. Nestes identificaram-se curvas de força não-Hnear e levantaram-se curvas de sensibilidade do índice de Vibro-impacto à variação dos parâmetros dos modelos. Mostrou-se que a técnica da Transformada de Hilbert pode ser utilizada para a identificação de sistemas não-lineares e que o estudo de sensibilidade em modelos de vibro-impacto pode ser obtido sem muita dificuldade
Abstract: This work presents a study about a numerical and experimental vibro-impact level analisys in mechanical gearshift levers. It was developed gearshift lever models which consider nonlinearities in the structure. Methods to vibro-impact quantification were obtained in the available literature and were implemented to obtain curves which show the vibro-impact level change with the modification of the parameters of the developed models. Hubert Transform techniques were also implemented to obtain nonlinear forces implemented on the models. To verify the efficiency of these techniques, three test rigs with nonlinearities were developed and the nonlinear forces were identified. The techniques need the displacement, velocity and acceleration signals to calculate the forces. The nonlinear forces curves were identified and validated with the static forces measured. Two models of gearshift levers were developed, using lumped masses. In these models the nonlinear forces curves and the sensibility to the vibro-impact level with modifications in the model parameters were obtained. It was showed that the Hubert Transform techniques are reliable to identify nonlinear systems and that the sensibility study in vibro-impact can be obtained easily
Mestrado
Mecanica dos Sólidos e Projeto Mecanico
Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

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Chaswal, Vibhor. "A study of Laser Shock Peening on Fatigue behavior of IN718Plus Superalloy: Simulations and Experiments." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2013. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1368027477.

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Engammare, Juliette. "Familles de part et d'autre de l'écran : fiction, expérience et transmission." Thesis, Sorbonne Paris Cité, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017USPCA176.

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Ce travail est une confrontation. Une rencontre entre familles réelles et familles fictionnelles par écran interposé, afin de comprendre comment l’expérience fictionnelle interagit avec l’expérience de la vie. À cet effet, nous avons mené une enquête auprès de sept familles du Nord-Pas-de-Calais et avons choisi trois séries significatives en matière de représentations familiales, fortement plébiscitées par toutes les chaînes du groupe M6 et dont les circonstances de diffusion les réunissent à plus d’un titre : La petite maison dans la prairie (NBC, 1974-1984), Malcolm in the middle (FOX, 2000-2006) et Desperate Housewives (ABC, 2004-2012). Les résultats de l’enquête montrent que ces trois séries constituent une ressource permanente curative, qui sert de point de départ à une construction, voire une reconstruction de soi, que la nostalgie apparaît comme un moteur d’action, lequel amène à la composition singulière de situations, de décors de scène, de décoration d’intérieur, de pratiques variées et à la confection d’un patrimoine familial. Pour le dire autrement,l’expérience de la fiction rappelle constamment l’expérience de la vie et provoque, déclenche,de nouvelles expériences que souvent, les familles s’assurent de se transmettre de génération en génération. L’attachement à la fiction est un attachement à la vie personnelle et la chaîne joue un rôle sensible dans ce processus
This work proposes to implement a confrontation between real families and fictional familiesby interposing a screen in between them in order to understand how a fictional experienceinteracts with life experience. We have interviewed seven families from the Nord-Pas-de-Calais region of France. We have chosen three shows that are integral in familyrepresentation. They enjoy great popularity on the M6 TV group’s various channels andexhibit similar airing strategies: The Little House on the Prairie (NBC, 1974-1984), Malcomin the Middle (FOX, 2000-2006) and Desperate Housewives (ABC, 2004-2012). The ideathat we offer is that these three shows establish a permanent curative resource which is thebase of the individual’s self-construction. We may also go as far as to call it a reconstructionof oneself. Nostalgia seems to inspire action which leads to the construction of situations, setdesign, interior decoration, various practices and the creation of a family heritage. In otherwords: the experience of fiction serves as a constant reminder of the experience of life whichtriggers and inspires new experiences that families often pass down from generation togeneration. The shows in this corpus play a role in the creation of one’s family-relatedidentity and memories. An attachment towards fiction equates to an attachment to personallife. The network’s part in this process is substantial

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32

Monteiro, Janaína Munuera. "Imunolocalização das Heat Shock Proteins (HSPs) 60 e 70 na placenta bovina." Universidade de São Paulo, 2005. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/10/10132/tde-27062006-105146/.

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As Heat Shock Proteins (HSPs) ou proteínas do choque térmico são encontradas em todas as células e são classificadas de acordo com seu peso molecular. Dentre elas encontram-se as de 27, 60, 70, 90 e 110 kDa, sendo as mais estudadas no contexto da reprodução as da família 60 e 70. Essas proteínas são ditas como chaperoninas, em razão do seu importante papel no dobramento e desdobramento de outras proteínas celulares sem alterar sua conformação final, e são expressas frente a qualquer tipo de estresse como calor, vírus, bactéria, hormônios, diferenciação celular, etc, e influenciam nas respostas imune inata e adquirida. A placenta também expressa essas proteínas, uma vez que é um órgão de intenso estresse e diferenciação celular durante toda a gestação. Nesse estudo, busca-se avaliar a expressão ou não dessas proteínas na placenta bovina e para isso foram utilizadas 30 amostras de diferentes animais em estágios distintos de gestação, fixadas em formol tamponado a 10% e processadas pela técnica de imuno-istoquímica. O mesmo numero de amostras foi também processado para a análise de imuno-microscopia eletrônica de transmissão pelas técnicas de \"freeze-substitution\" e marcação por pós-embebição. Na imuno-istoquímica, as HSPs 60 e 70 foram localizadas nos trofoblastos, epitélio materno e células binucleadas. A expressão da HSP 60 foi maior no início declinando no segundo e terceiro terço. Já a expressão da HSP 70 manteve-se praticamente constante, evidenciando a forte expressão dessa proteína durante todo o período. Na análise de imuno-microscopia eletrônica de transmissão, ambas as famílias foram localizadas nas células binucleadas (núcleo, citoplasma e vesículas) e epitélio materno (núcleo e citoplasma) em todos os terços gestacionais. O perfil das proteínas estudadas na placenta bovina foi diferente quando comparada à placenta humana, pois nesta última, a intensidade da expressão para a HSP 70 diminuiu com o decorrer da gestação enquanto para a HSP 60 foi constante durante todo a gestação. Provavelmente essas diferenças podem estar relacionadas ao fato dessas amostras terem sido coletadas de mulheres com gravidez interrompidas e também pelo tipo de placentação distinta. A bovinocultura de corte é de extrema importância para a econômica para o Brasil e se faz necessário o conhecimento de fatores que possam melhorar suas características reprodutivas. Dessa forma os resultados obtidos nesse estudo contribuirão certamente de subsídio para experimentos futuros sobre o papel das Heat Shock Proteins na placenta bovina.
Heat Shock Proteins (HSP) can be found in any kind of cell. These proteins are classified according to their molecular weight and their known families include the HSP 27, 60, 70, 90 and 110 kDa. Among these, HSP 60 and 70 are the ones of interest in reproduction. They were known as chaperonines because of their capacity to fold and unfold other proteins into the cell, without changing their own conformation. They are expressed during several stress conditions likes virus and bacteria infections, hormones, heat, cellular differentiation, etc, and also take part signalizing for innate and acquired immune responses. Heat shock proteins are expressed in several tissues and organs, including the placenta. In this study we have evaluated the expression of these proteins in the bovine placenta, using thirty samples from different animais with distinct gestational periods, fixed in 10% formalin and processed for immunohistochemistry. The same numbers of samples were processed for immunoelectron microscopy using freeze-substitution and post embedding labeling techniques. The immunohistochemistry results show the expression of HSP 60 and 70 in trophoblasts, maternal epithelia and binucleated cells. The HSP 60 expression was higher in the beginning of gestation, becoming lower during the second and third trimester. Heat shock protein 70 expression were practically constant throughout the gestation. The immunoelectron microscopy analysis revealed that both HSP 60 and 70 were located in the cytoplasm and nucleio binucleated cells and maternal epithelia from the beginning to the end of pregnancy. The immunolocalization of HSP 60 and 70 in the bovine placenta were distinct from the ones found in studies on women, probably due to the differences of the placentation type and to the fact that those samples were collected from abnormal or discontinuous pregnancy. Beef production in Brazil is an important economical activity and studies to improve the bovine reproductive characteristics are necessary and must be expended, therefore our results certainly contributes for further studies on HSP function during pregnancy in this species.

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33

Biasi, Pasqualalberto. "Modeling of the explosive phase change during a BLEVE event." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2022.

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A Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE) is a physical explosion caused by the sudden bursting of a vessel containing a superheated liquid. The scientific community describes the BLEVE as a physical explosion and is trying to develop models to predict the strength of the shock waves generated. Taking into account the data provided by the experimental campaign on the BLEVE water, this paper focuses on the causes that may lead to the formation of the second external pressure peak. Many authors assume that this peak is influenced by the liquid/vapour phase transition that occurs in the tank after the sudden pressure drop. Using Scilab, a numerical model is created that can solve Euler's equations for the shock tube problem, simulating only the behavior of the vapour phase. The quality of the model is tested taking into account data obtained experimentally in laboratory-scale tests. Then, based on the EVUT (equal-velocity-unequal-temperature) model proposed in the literature, the boiling phenomenon caused by the sudden pressure drop is analysed. The "relaxation time model" is discussed for modelling the source terms. Using the developed model, the effects of boiling on the density, velocity and internal pressure profiles are investigated. Finally, the model is discussed by comparing it with the experimental data from the E27 test of the water BLEVE campaign

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34

Saïd, Didier. "Étude théorique et numérique des vibrations de structures soumises à des chocs pyrotechniques." Cachan, Ecole normale supérieure, 1998. http://www.theses.fr/1998DENS0020.

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L'étude s'inscrit dans le cadre de la prévision des niveaux vibratoires induits par les chocs pyrotechniques lors de la phase de séparation des étages du lanceur Ariane 5, et plus particulièrement de la prévision des niveaux vibratoires dans la case a équipements. On développe une approche simplifiée permettant de déterminer la réponse dynamique de la structure à partir du calcul de matrices de rigidité dynamique exactes. Cette approche est réservée a des structures de type guides d'ondes dans lesquelles la direction de propagation des ondes est connue. On s'intéresse également a la prise en compte de liaisons entre structures ; on montre qu'il est possible de déterminer la matrice de rigidité dynamique des liaisons a partir de la connaissance des coefficients de réflexion et de transmission des ondes et des relations force-déplacement dans les éléments relies a la liaison.

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35

Hollweg, Claire Honoré. "Essays on the transmission of economic shocks." Thesis, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2440/85927.

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This thesis explores the transmission of economic shocks. Although the thesis is structured as four stand-alone chapters, the common theme throughout is identifying the impact of economic shocks: either idiosyncratic shocks at the household-level, macroeconomic shocks emanating from foreign countries and transmitted through global markets, or countries’ own macroeconomic policy changes (for example, structural reforms or trade reforms). Each chapter applies a different empirical methodology, including structural estimation, reduced form instrumental variables estimation, and growth accounting. Finally, each chapter utilizes a different dataset and country sample selection. While one chapter uses a micro dataset from household-level surveys, others use cross-country datasets at the aggregate country level. Both developed and developing countries are considered in the analyses. The thesis begins by exploring the relationship between idiosyncratic income changes and consumption changes of Australian households over the period 2001-2009. A major contribution to the literature is the use of the Household Income and Labor Dynamics of Australia dataset that includes panels on both consumption and income data. For the entire sample of Australian households, nearly full consumption smoothing exists against transitory shocks. Although less consumption smoothing exists against permanent shocks, Australian households still achieve a high degree of consumption smoothing against highly persistent shocks, particularly when compared to households in the United States. Durable purchases, female labor supply, and taxes and transfers are all found to act as consumption-smoothing mechanisms. The thesis then explores the impact of structural reforms on a comprehensive list of macro-level labor-market outcomes, including the unemployment rate, employment levels, average wage index, and labor force participation rates. After documenting the average trends across countries in the labor-market outcomes up to ten years on either side of each country’s reform year, fixed-effects ordinary least squares as well as instrumental variables regressions are performed to account for likely endogeneity of structural reforms to labor-market outcomes. Overall the results suggest that structural reforms lead to positive outcomes for labor, particularly for informal workers. Redistributive effects in favor of workers, along the lines of the Stolper-Samuelson effect, may be at work. The thesis then explores the impact of trade liberalization on macroeconomic estimates of productivity using Brazil as a case study. Trade and economic reforms can affect the price of capital goods relative to other tradable and especially non-tradable goods. If the price of capital investments rises more than the price of all goods and services in the economy, mismeasurement of the price of capital caused by the divergence in these relative prices would result in an overestimated capital stock and underestimated TFP. This chapter overcomes this bias by constructing a capital price index using international trade data on capital goods’ unit values then adjusts the index to reflect domestic Brazilian prices. A significant recovery between 1992 and 2006 is observed, highlighting the important role of the price deflator in growth accounting. The final chapter of this thesis proposes a methodology to measure the vulnerability of a country through exports to fluctuations in the economic activity of foreign markets. Export vulnerability depends first on the overall level of export exposure, measured as the share of exports to a foreign market in gross domestic product, and second on the sensitivity of exports to fluctuations in foreign gross domestic product. This sensitivity is captured by estimating origin-destination specific elasticities of exports with respect to changes in foreign gross domestic product using a gravity model of trade. Although the results suggest differences in elasticity estimates across regions as well as product categories, the principal source of international heterogeneity in export vulnerability results from differences in export exposure to global markets.
Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Economics, 2014

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36

"The transmission of global liquidity shocks in China." 2012. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5549219.

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This paper investigates the role of the global excess liquidity for macroeconomic variables, especially asset prices and external imbalance in China. We estimate structural VAR model and find evidence that the surge in global liquidity has limited effects on China's price level, output and asset prices. By inspecting the structural decomposition, we find that global output and inflation shocks affect domestic macroeconomic fluctuation. Using sign restrictions, we estimate the impacts of three structural shocks in driving the external imbalance and find that the global excess liquidity is a relevant factor while the shock to financial market may be a more important role in explaining the external imbalance than productivity shock.
Sun, Yun.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 57-63).
Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web.
Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1
Chapter 1.1. --- Introduction --- p.2
Chapter 1.2. --- Theoretical background --- p.6
Chapter 2. --- Data and methodology --- p.14
Chapter 2.1. --- Data description --- p.14
Chapter 2.2. --- Methodology --- p.16
Chapter 3. --- Results and Interpretation --- p.21
Chapter 3.1. --- Domestic SVAR results --- p.21
Chapter 3.2. --- A global SVAR analysis for China --- p.35
Chapter 4. --- Three structural shocks and global imbalance --- p.47
Chapter 4.1. --- Sign restrictions analysis --- p.47
Chapter 4.2. --- Empirical Evidence --- p.50
Chapter 5. --- Conclusion --- p.54
Chapter A. --- Data --- p.64

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37

"The transmission of US monetary policy shocks to China." 2012. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5549657.

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在全球化和改革開放的進程中，中國在各方面巳經取得了長足的進步，另一方面，外來衝擊也更容易侵入。在本文中我們主要關注世界上最大的兩個經濟體，中國和美國，通過貨幣政策所產生的聯繫。我們建立了若干個VAR 模型來分析美國貨幣政策的改變對於中國的影響以及意義。
我們發現，匯率波動是最主要的傳導渠道。基於這一點，文中的分析被劃分為兩個子時間段，以2005 年7 月的匯率改革為分隔點。在兩個時間段中，擴張性的美國貨幣政策衝擊都會引起流入中國的國際資本顯著增加，並以非FDI 的“熱錢"流入為主。在匯率改革之前，這一資本流入主要引起不可貿易品的需求增加，從而其相對價格提高，引起實際匯率升值，而對於經常賬戶和貿易收支的影響較小。相比之下，在匯率改革之後，這一資本流入引起的實際匯率升值主要通過名義匯率的調整來實現。雖然國內通貨膨脹壓力降低，實際匯率波幅也沒有顯著上升，但是由於名義匯率變化對於出口的傳遞程度較高，貿易收支在短期內會明顯惡化。
為了增強分析的有效性和魯棒性，我們修改了VAR 的結構來觀察這一傳導機制隨著時間的演進。結果證明了最主要的轉折點出現在匯改附近，同時變量之間逐年的動態闕係也證明了以上的結論。
這些結果表明，在名義匯率和經常賬戶的穩定性，以及國內通貨膨脹的穩定性之間，存在著一個權衡關係。雖然對於浮動匯率制是否會帶來更高的實際匯率波動性本文並未發現很強的證據，但是我們觀察到它導致了經常賬戶更加劇烈的波動。在某些情況下，名義匯率升值甚至可以引起短暫的通貨緊縮現象，這在固定匯率制下是不會出現的。因此，邁向浮動匯率制的副作用不可被完全忽略，其中隱含的風險也在一定程度上說明了“浮動恐懼"這一普遍現象的合理性。
On the transition path to a more globalized and open economy, China has witnessed a great progress in many aspects; meanwhile, external shocks are more likely to invade. In this work we focus on the connection between two largest economies, China and the US, through the channel of monetary policy innovations. Several structural VAR models are developed to analyze what a change in monetary policy stance of US implies for the Chinese economy and why this is important.
The principal transmission channel is through adjustment in exchange rates. We divide our analysis into two sub-periods based on the exchange rate reform in July 2005. Across both periods following an expansionary US monetary policy shock there is a burst of capital inflows concentrated within the first year that are dominated by non-FDI inflows, i.e., “hot money“. Before the exchange rate reform, these capital inflows lead to a rise in the demand for non-tradable goods, driving up their relative price, thereby achieving a real exchange rate appreciation. The effect on trade balance is relatively small.
Comparatively, after the exchange rate reform, real exchange rate appreciates due to the surge of capital inflows more through changes in nominal exchange rate. The inflationary pressure is alleviated significantly, and the short-run volatility of real exchange rate slightly increases. However, the pass-through of nominal exchange rate changes into exports is much higher, resulting in a short-run deterioration in trade balance severely.
To verify the validity and enhance the robustness of our analysis, we revise the identifying VARs to investigate the evolution of transmission over time. We show that the most significant turning point of the transmission channel coincides with the exchange rate reform, and comparison among dynamics of variables on a year-by-year basis confirms the previous conclusions.
It seems that there is a trade-off between the stability of nominal exchange rate and the current account, on the one hand, and the stabilization of inflation, on the other hand. Although we find only weak evidence that a more free-floating nominal exchange rate will lead to higher volatility in the real exchange rate, it may introduce higher short-run volatility in the current account. In some cases the appreciation in nominal exchange rate even generates a transitory deflationary effect that is absent under the pegged system. Therefore, the side effects of stepping toward a flexible exchange rate regime must be considered; the potential risk it involves justifies the “fear of floating“ to some extent.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Yang, Minmin.
Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 101-110).
Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web.
Abstract also in Chinese.
Abstract --- p.i
Acknowledgement --- p.v
Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1
Chapter 1.1 --- Motivation --- p.1
Chapter 1.2 --- Contributions and Major Findings --- p.5
Chapter 1.3 --- Organization of the Thesis --- p.7
Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.9
Chapter 2.1 --- Open Economy Theories --- p.9
Chapter 2.2 --- Empirical Research on International Transmission --- p.13
Chapter 2.3 --- China as an Open Economy --- p.15
Chapter 3 --- Theory --- p.18
Chapter 3.1 --- Traditional Theory --- p.18
Chapter 3.1.1 --- Transmission under Fixed Exchange Rate Regime --- p.19
Chapter 3.1.2 --- Transmission under Flexible Exchange Rate Regime --- p.25
Chapter 3.2 --- Specific Issues in China --- p.27
Chapter 3.2.1 --- Capital Control --- p.28
Chapter 3.2.2 --- Sterilization --- p.29
Chapter 3.2.3 --- Pass-through of Nominal Exchange Rate to Trade --- p.30
Chapter 3.3 --- Summary --- p.36
Chapter 4 --- Data and Methodology --- p.38
Chapter 4.1 --- Vector Autoregression --- p.38
Chapter 4.2 --- VARs models for the transmission of US monetary policy shocks to China --- p.41
Chapter 4.2.1 --- Benchmark VAR to IdentifyMonetary Policy Shocks in the US --- p.41
Chapter 4.2.2 --- Extend the Benchmark VAR to Include Chinese Variables --- p.45
Chapter 4.3 --- Data --- p.50
Chapter 5 --- Empirical Results --- p.57
Chapter 5.1 --- Overview --- p.57
Chapter 5.2 --- Transmission before the Exchange Rate reform --- p.59
Chapter 5.2.1 --- Capital Inflows --- p.59
Chapter 5.2.2 --- Exchange Rates and Prices --- p.62
Chapter 5.2.3 --- Trade and the Current Account --- p.64
Chapter 5.3 --- Transmission after the Exchange Rate Reform --- p.66
Chapter 5.3.1 --- Capital Inflows --- p.67
Chapter 5.3.2 --- Exchange Rates and Prices --- p.67
Chapter 5.3.3 --- Trade and the Current Account --- p.69
Chapter 5.4 --- Specific Issues in China --- p.70
Chapter 5.4.1 --- Capital Control --- p.71
Chapter 5.4.2 --- Sterilization --- p.71
Chapter 5.4.3 --- Pass-through of Nominal Exchange Rate to Trade --- p.72
Chapter 5.5 --- Summary --- p.77
Chapter 6 --- Robustness: Structural Break in the Transmission --- p.79
Chapter 6.1 --- Methodology --- p.80
Chapter 6.2 --- Empirical Results --- p.87
Chapter 6.3 --- Summary --- p.91
Chapter 7 --- Conclusion and Future Work --- p.92
Bibliography --- p.101

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38

Sundberg, Mark. "The international transmission of macroeconomic shocks among Pacific Basin countries." 1991. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/27452432.html.

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39

Zheng, Jasmine Shuwei. "Fiscal policy, monetary policy and the transmission mechanism of shocks." Phd thesis, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/156069.

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This thesis focuses on the three central themes that have dominated the world economy in recent decades. First, in each of the localized financial crises that have taken place in the world economy, policymakers around the world have reduced policy interest rates to help stimulate the economy. The recent subprime mortgage crisis and the subsequent Great Recession resulted in the reduction of policy interest rates in many advanced economies to historically low levels. Second, governments around the world have implemented huge fiscal stimulus packages. Third, emerging market economies and countries such as Australia, with close trade linkages to China, have remained resilient. The severity of the crisis of 2007-2011 and the resilience displayed by some economies have resulted in renewed interest among policymakers in investigating the transmission mechanism channels of economic shocks, fiscal and monetary policies. There are three main objectives in this thesis. The first objective is to examine the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on the US economy. Chapter 2 uses the Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) methodology to estimate the impact of fiscal and monetary policy shocks on the US economy. The second objective of the thesis is to investigate the asymmetry in the effects of conventional monetary policy on the economy dependent on financial stress conditions. A Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model is used to analyze the effects of monetary policy on the US economy during periods of low and high financial stress, specifying a financial stress index as the threshold variable. The third objective of the thesis is to study the transmission of economic shocks from the US and Chinese economies to the Australian economy. Chapter 4 in this thesis uses a FAVAR approach and a large dataset of 414 macroeconomic variables to analyze the international transmission mechanisms between the Australian economy and the US and Chinese economies. Overall, this thesis finds evidence suggesting that fiscal and monetary policies can be effective and potent in helping the US economy recover from a financial crisis. This thesis finds that government spending plays an important role compared to other policy levers. The effects of a government spending shock last for a longer period of time and explain more variability in the macroeconomic variables in the US economy, with some crowding-out effects in the medium term. Analyzing the impact of monetary policy on the US economy in during financial regimes provides further insights. The impact of monetary policy on the US economy is found to be greater during periods of high financial stress when the size of the shock is larger. There is also evidence of a cost channel effect during periods of high financial stress which suggests that there is a short run inflation-output trade off during financial crises. The FAVAR model developed to analyze the international transmission of economic shocks from the US and China to Australia suggests that the US economy continues to play an important role in the Australian economy, despite the increase in trade linkages between Australia and China.

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40

Yu, Chin-Ying, and 余芝穎. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: The case of Taiwan." Thesis, 2004. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/43654411101759567515.

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碩士
國立清華大學
經濟學系
92
This study examines the international transmission of the U.S. monetary shocks on the real economy of Taiwan for the flexible exchange rate period. One novel feature of our study is that we not only use the traditional vector autoregression model (VAR) but also the semi-structural VAR model. First, U.S. expansionary monetary policy shocks will worsen U.S. trade balance in the short run while the long run improvement of U.S. trade balance is caused by the lasting improvement in U.S. export. Second, as to the international transmission of U.S. monetary shocks, the U.S. monetary expansion shocks lead to booms in Taiwan. Both trade balance channel and real interest rate channel play important roles in the transmission. Overall, the results from VAR model are similar to that from the semi-structural model. The evidence about the international transmission mechanism appears to be consistent with the prediction of both Mundell-Flemming-Dornbusch (MFD) model and the intertemporal current account model.

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41

CHEN, HSIAO-YUN, and 陳筱昀. "Confidence and the Transmission of Government Spending Shocks: Evidence from Taiwan." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/97639532652332747316.

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碩士
國立臺北大學
經濟學系
101
This paper mainly discusses about when Taiwan is facing the financial fluctuations shocks, government implements an expansionary fiscal policy to stimulate economic recovery, whether the confidence of private sector plays an important role in the transmission of fiscal policy. This paper according to the research opinions by Bachmann and Sims (2011), that extends to develop a small open economy SVAR model by setting limits about "the indirect effect of government spending shocks on output that operates through confidence", to isolate the role of confidence in the transmission of fiscal policy. Finally, compared with the impulse response results between the restricted confidence model and the unrestricted one, to investigate about the difference of the economic effect of fiscal policy whether the existence of the confidence or not. This paper researches by using the quarterly data from Q1 2001 to 2012 Q1, the empirical results show that whether the confidence of consumer or firms, both has a significant and positive impact on fiscal policy. On the other hand, the indirect output effect that operates through confidence has a synergistic effect on the effect of government spending on output. With the government spending shocks that operate through confidence, it will bring about consumer and business confidence index rises, private consumption, private investment and gross domestic product increases, exchange rate appreciates and the trade balance improves. In addition, according to the composition of government spending, we can know that the impact of government spending shocks on government investment spending is relatively larger than on government consumption spending. As the result, we can show that government investment spending is the main source of expenditure of expansionary fiscal policy. The empirical results are consistent with the purposes of that government increases spending and publicly motivates people with confidence to stimulate private consumption and investment during the recession.

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42

Varela, Ana Cristina dos Reis Mendes. "Confidence and the transmission of government expenditure shocks: the case of Portugal." Master's thesis, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/22246.

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This thesis investigates the confidence channel through which shifts in government expenditure can affect the Portuguese economic activity, using a linear structural Vector Autoregressive model from 1995 to 2016. The impulse responses are constructed to analyze the impact of government spending measures on output, in a model where confidence is not included, to isolate the direct effect of government expenditure on output, and in a model with confidence, to account for an indirect effect through confidence. Overall, the findings suggest that neither consumer confidence nor business confidence play a crucial role in the propagation of public spending shocks into output.

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43

IlabacaTurri, Sebastián Alberto. "Commodity prices Shocks in Chile : local effects on poverty, and transmission mechanisms." Tesis, 2016. http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/145385.

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TESIS PARA OPTAR AL GRADO DE Magister en Análisis Económico
The commoditypricesshocksatthebeginningof2000'shadimportante ectsinChile,where one ofthemostrelevantshockwasonmetal-miningproducts.Thisinvestigationexaminesthe localeconomicimpactonpovertyofthemetal-miningcommoditypricesboomforthecountry, and thetransmissionmechanismsofthosee ects.Weusehouseholddatabetween1998-2013to create apaneldataatmunicipalitylevel,andexploitthedi erencesinmunicipalitiesexposure to changeinprices.Theresultsshowsareductioninpovertyratesassociatedwiththepositive terms oftradeshock,wherethemagnitudedependsontheexposurelevel.Countiesbelongingto the 95thpercentileoftheexposurelevelhadonaverageapovertyreductionof1.95percentage points(pp)duetotheshock.Wealsoexaminethelabormarketstransmissionmechanisms, nding thattheshockgeneratesanincreaseinunskilledworkersemploymentandwages.On average,forthelattergroupofmunicipalitiesthecommodityshockproduceanincreaseof1.07% in unskilledmetal-miningemployment,and6.69%inunskilledworkerswages

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Bae, Gunho. "The effects of monetary policy shocks in Japan and international transmission of economic disturbances." 1995. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/38059081.html.

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Barrela, Rodrigo Duarte. "Consumer interest rate and noise shocks in monetary policy." Master's thesis, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/66380.

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The present paper analyzes the differences between shocks to the monetary policy and the consumer interest rates in a context without perfect information where the agents observe only a noisy signal on their interest rate, thus resorting to a signal extraction problem before making their consumption decisions. The results show that non-monetary policy rate shocks – here designated as transmission mechanism shocks – are more important in determining economic fluctuations vis-à-vis monetary policy shocks. Noise is not impactful, thus not very important in determining consumers’s decisions. The results call for policymakers’ special attention when designing macroprudential policies that affect the transmission mechanism of interest rates

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Ziaul, Haque Qazi. "The Role of Monetary Shocks in the U.S Business Cycle." Thesis, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2440/108120.

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This item is only available electronically.
ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to illustrate how the basic Real Business Cycle (RBC) model can be modified to incorporate money in an attempt to construct monetary business cycle models of the U.S. economy. This is done for one case where money enters the model as direct lump-sum transfers to households and for the other case where money injections enter the economy through the financial system. Interestingly, the two channels generate very different responses to a money growth shock. In the first case, a positive money growth shock increases nominal interest rates and depresses economic activity, which is called the anticipated inflation effect. However, the popular consensus among economists is that nominal interest rates fall after a positive monetary shock. This motivates the construction of our second model where it is conjectured that the banking sector plays an important role in the monetary transmission mechanism and money is injected into the model through financial intermediaries. It is observed in this model that a positive monetary shock reduces interest rates and stimulates economic activity, which is called the liquidity effect. Furthermore, the statistics generated by the models show that monetary shocks have no effect on real variables when money enters as direct lump-sum transfers to households. On the contrary, such shocks have significant real impact when money enters through the financial system. Taken together, this implies that how money enters into the model significantly matters for the impact of monetary shocks and such shocks entering through financial intermediaries may be important in determining the cyclical fluctuations of the U.S. economy.
Thesis (B.Ec.(Hons)) -- University of Adelaide, School of Economics, 2017

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Pereira, Nuno André Mendes. "The effects of monetary policy shocks on consumption: a decomposition of the transmission channels for Portuguese households." Master's thesis, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/127194.

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In this study I use a combination of household level data from the 2ndwave of the HFCS with high-frequency data regarding changes in asset prices during events of monetary pol-icy communication to evaluate the effects of monetary shocks on households’ consumption expenditures in Portugal. I find that wealthy Hand-to-Mouth, i.e., households that are financially constrained but possess a significant amount of illiquid wealth, are the group with the most significant reaction to a negative monetary shock. In addition, Portugal displays a high home ownership rate, a fact that correlates with housing being the strongest transmission channel.

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Tan, Kang Yong. "Essays on learning in international macroeconomics." Phd thesis, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/6965.

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The objective of this thesis is to explore the implications of learning as an alter- native expectations formation mechanism in international macroeconomics. The first part of the thesis (Chapters 2 to 4) deals with the e¤ects of adaptive learning(Evans and Honkapohja, 2001) in the transmission of policy changes and shocks within and across borders. In particular, learning has been introduced to two major workhorse open economy models: the Mundell-Fleming Dornbusch and the McKibbin-Sachs Global (MSG3) models. The second part of the thesis (Chapters 5 to 6) begins by examining the learning behavior of international creditors about the credibility of an exchange rate regime using a game theoretic approach to reputation. Using the Pooled Mean Group methodology, this part also conducts an empirical analysis to investigate the inter-relationship between sovereign yield spreads and exchange rate regime during the pre-World War One era...

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Doojav, Gan-Ochir. "A small open economy modelling: A Bayesian DSGE approach." Phd thesis, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/101520.

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Examining the business cycle and the monetary transmission mechanism in a small open economy based on the macroeconomic models is vital for successfully implementing forward-looking and counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies. In the context, this thesis focuses on the importance of various modelling implications (i.e., frictions and shocks) in developing empirically viable small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. The thesis comprises three self-contained chapters on formulating, estimating and evaluating the DSGE models using Bayesian methods and data for Australia and the United States (US) (or G7 for Chapter 2), as well as a general thesis introduction and conclusion. Chapter 2 investigates the quantitative role of a cost channel of monetary policy and an uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) modification in an estimated small open economy DSGE model. For this purpose, a small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model developed by Justiniano and Preston (2010a) (i.e., benchmark model for the thesis) is augmented to incorporate the cost channel and the UIP modification based on a forward premium puzzle. The empirical analysis shows that introducing the cost channel and the UIP modification into the estimated model improves its ability to fit business cycle properties of key macroeconomic variables and to account for the empirical evidence on the monetary transmission mechanism. Chapter 3 assesses the importance of news shocks in a small open economy DSGE model for analysing business cycle properties of macroeconomic aggregates, including labour market variables. To this end, the model in Chapter 2 is enlarged in Chapter 3 to include (i) the theory of invoulntary unemployment proposed by Galí (2011), (ii) an endogenous preference shifter, similar to that used by Galí et al. (2011), and (iii) both news (anticipated) and unanticipated components in each structural shock. The results show that the estimated model is able to qualitatively replicate the existing VAR-based results (e.g., Kosaka 2013, Kamber et al. 2014 and Theodoridis and Zanetti 2014) on news driven business cycles, and the presence of news shocks has the potential to improve the model fit. Another important finding is that news shocks have been the main drivers of the Australian business cycle in the inflation-targeting period. Chapter 4 examines the significance of financial frictions and shocks in a small open economy DSGE model for explaining macroeconomic fluctuations. In doing so, Chapter 4 has further extended the model in Chapter 3 to a rich DSGE model in the two-country setting with involuntary unemployment, financial frictions and shocks. The main results include (i) the presence of financial accelerator improves the model fit, (ii) the financial accelerator amplifies and propagates the effects of monetary policy shocks on output, but dampens the effects of technology and labour supply shocks in Australia and the US, and (iii) financial shocks (i.e., shocks to the credit spread) are important for explaining investment and output fluctuations in both countries. Finally, this thesis provides implications for designing macroeconomic policies and building empirically viable open economy DSGE models to analyse the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and the business cycle.

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Veselý, Vladimír. "Jak nízká inflace v eurozóně ovlivňuje inflaci v České republice?" Master's thesis, 2016. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-351887.

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The goal of this thesis is to identify domestic and foreign shocks that mostly explain variation in the Czech price level. This goal is accomplished by the use of structural vector autoregression. As the Czech Republic is considered to be a small open economy, it is crucial to include foreign variables into the model which are represented by shocks in euro zone. Furthermore, a block exogeneity restriction is imposed because it is unlikely that shocks in the Czech economy can influence macroeconomic development in euro zone. The results of the thesis indicate that foreign shocks explain 70% variability in Czech price level out of which 50% is explained by euro zone's price level shocks. It is likely that in near future Czech economy will experience deflation for a while. Nevertheless, by 2018 Czech inflation rate should be in 1-3% band.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Transmission of shocks'

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