Academic literature on the topic 'Transitory period'

Schrand and Walther's (2000) archival evidence suggests that managers strategically disclose prior-period benchmarks in current earnings announcements, which, in turn, influences investors' judgments. Using a controlled experimental setting, I present evidence confirming that a transparent description of a transitory prior-period gain or loss affects how investors apply prior-period earnings when evaluating currentperiod earnings. I also provide evidence that this effect is likely to be unintentional on the part of investors, resulting from limitations in their memory for the prior-period event. Overall, the experimental results suggest that a quantitative description of the transitory prior-period gain or loss in a current earnings announcement helps investors to evaluate company performance. The results also highlight the need for consistency in reporting non-GAAP financial performance measures.

Earnings represent information which very paid attention by users of financial statements. Some research was examined the ability of earnings to forecast future earnings which only focused to aggregate earnings. Some literature mention that reported earnings number contain permanent and transitory earnings component which can be used to forecast future earnings and future cash flow. Permanent earnings is earnings related to core activity of the firms which always happened each every period, while transitory earnings are earnings do not relate with core activity of the firms and is not expected to happened in next period. This research empirically examines the level of accuracy model with permanent, transitory, and aggregate earnings component to forecast future earnings of the firms

Background: The risk of developing stroke after retinal artery occlusion was reported to be increased. The aim of our study was to assess the rate of strokes/transitory ischemic attacks after retinal artery occlusion in a European population and to identify the risk groups. Methods: All patients, diagnosed with branch or central retinal artery occlusion at our outpatient department since 2014, were asked to participate in this prospective case–control study. At the initial examination, the medical history was documented and 1 year after retinal artery occlusion, patients were called by telephone interview for assessment of the rate of strokes/transitory ischemic attack in the follow-up period. Results: In all, 30 eyes of 30 patients could be included. Among these, six patients had a stroke, one a transitory ischemic attack, and one an amaurosis fugax in the medical history before retinal artery occlusion. In the period 1 year after retinal artery occlusion, one patient had a re-stroke and one patient had a transitory ischemic attack, with amaurosis fugax in the medical history. Rates of strokes/transitory ischemic attack before and after retinal artery occlusion did not show significant differences between branch and central artery occlusion. Conclusion: The number of strokes/transitory ischemic attacks within the first year is relatively low after retinal artery occlusion and patients that already had a previous stroke, transitory ischemic attack, and/or amaurosis fugax before retinal artery occlusion seem to have a higher risk for a cerebrovascular event after retinal artery occlusion.

A total of 105 children with neonatal transitory hypothyrosis were observed from birth till the age of 3-5 years. Control group consisted of 81 children with normal thyroid function during the neonatal period. Unfavorable perinatal factors (complications of pregnancy and labor, maternal chronic diseases) contributed to the development of transitory hypothyrosis. A history of neonatal transitory hypothyrosis has a negative impact on subsequent physical, nervous, mental, and speech development of children and their health status during the first year of life and in preschool age. An unfavorable individual prognosis as regards further nervous and mental development, made on the basis of an original table of prognostic coefficients, can be sufficient for prescribing thyroid hormone preparations to neonates with transitory hypothyrosis.

We investigate whether investors price losses conditional on the likelihood of the firm's return to profitability, consistent with the abandonment option hypothesis (Hayn 1995). We first develop a loss-reversal model to define subsamples of persistent and transitory losses. We find that on average investors price transitory losses positively over the sample period, as if a transitory loss indicates a low likelihood of exercising the abandonment option. We also observe that early in the sample period investors do not price persistent losses, as predicted by the abandonment option hypothesis. By contrast, later in the sample period, larger persistent losses correspond to higher returns, inconsistent with the prediction of the abandonment option hypothesis. To understand why we observe a change in the valuation of persistent losses over the sample period, we study their components and establish the key role of R&D for their valuation. We find that investors do not price persistent losses without an R&D component, consistent with these losses indicating financial distress and a higher likelihood of exercising the abandonment option. However, when persistent losses contain R&D, investors separately value the R&D component as an asset and the non-R&D component as if it is a transitory loss. Thus, investors do not consider losses to be homogeneous, but consider the causes and nature of the loss to assess its long-term implications for firm value.

This paper examines how the professional forecasters comprising the Blue Chip Economic Consensus view shocks to GDP. I use an unobserved components model of the forecast revisions to identify forecasters' perceptions of permanent and transitory shocks to GDP. The model indicates forecasters: attribute about two-thirds of the variance in current-period revisions to permanent shocks; view the relative importance of permanent shocks similar to the estimates of some simple univariate econometric models; see high-frequency indicators of economic activity as being informative about both permanent and transitory shocks; and react to incoming data differently during periods of economic weakness. (JEL C51, C53, E23, E27, E32, E37)

Abstract W Persei is a massive, luminous and large red supergiant located relatively nearby. W Persei is a probable SN-II progenitor. We analyzed ∼120 yr of photometry from the AAVSO database. The analysis was conducted in the period analysis software Peranso where the CLEANest power spectrum and WWZ-wavelet programs were utilized. Two dominant periods of P = 532 ± 68 days and P = 2922 ± 140 days are found. Intermediate and transitory periods are also uncovered along with period events such as a significant increase in the long-period, period-merging and period-splitting. Using Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite observations, stochastic ∼0.3–0.8 mmag light variability on timescales of ∼0.3 day appears present. The physical causes of these variations is discussed.

To investigate how kindergarteners cognitively developed in a family with an adult who experienced recurrent versus transitory food insecurity, a sample of 1,040 kindergarteners (mean age = 5.6 years) from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 2010-2011 was analyzed using multilevel growth modeling. Results indicated that kindergarteners from homes with an adult who experienced recurrent food insecurity (twice within a 24-month period; n = 490) initially had slower growth in reading relative to their counterparts who were in homes with an adult who was food insecure only once over the same time period ( n = 550). However, this initial disadvantage diminished over time. As a result, the recurrent group’s reading trajectory converged with that of their transitory peers by second grade. These findings highlight the value of adopting more temporal view of food insecurity and its developmental consequences.

Orientadores: Desanka Dragosavac, Luciana Castilho de Figueiredo
Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas
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Resumo: OBJETIVO: Estudo de coorte retrospectivo realizado com o objetivo de verificar a presença de Disfunção Transitória da Troca Gasosa (DTTG) no pós-operatório de cirurgia cardíaca e determinar se esse transtorno está relacionado a eventos cardiorrespiratórios. MÉTODOS: Foram incluídos 942 pacientes consecutivos submetidos à cirurgia cardíaca e procedimentos cardíacos, encaminhados para a UTI, entre junho de 2007 e novembro de 2011. RESULTADOS: A Síndrome do Desconforto Respiratório Agudo (SDRA) foi observada em 15 pacientes (2%), apresentaram Disfunção Transitória da Troca Gasosa (DTTG) leve 199 (27.75%) pacientes, DTTG moderada em 402 (56.1%) pacientes e DTTG grave em 39 (5.4%) pacientes. A presença de hipertensão arterial e choque cardiogênico foram associadas ao surgimento de DTTG moderada no período pós-operatório (p=0.02 e p=0.019, respectivamente) e foram considerados fatores de risco para esta disfunção (p=0.0023 e p=0.0017, respectivamente). A presença de diabetes mellitus também foi considerada um fator de risco para DTTG (p=0.03). Houve correlação entre a presença de pneumonia e a presença de DTTG moderada em 8.9% dos casos (p = 0.001). A presença de DTTG grave foi associada a pacientes que necessitaram de terapia de substituição renal (p=0.0005), hemoterapia (p=0.0001), nutrição enteral (p=0.0012), ou arritmia cardíaca (0.0451). CONCLUSÕES: A presença de hipertensão pré-operatória e choque cardiogênico foram associados com a ocorrência de DTTG pós-operatória. Os fatores de risco pré-operatórios foram hipertensão, choque cardiogênico e diabetes. No pós-operatório, a pneumonia, pneumonia associada à ventilação (PAV), terapia de substituição renal, hemoterapia e arritmia cardíaca foram associados com o aparecimento de certo grau de DTTG, que foi fator de risco para reintubação, pneumonia, PAV e terapia de substituição renal no pós-operatório de cirurgia cardíaca e procedimentos cardíacos
Abstract: OBJECTIVE: A retrospective cohort study was preformed aiming to verify the presence of transient dysfunction of gas exchange (TDGE) in the postoperative period of cardiac surgery and determine if this disorder is linked to cardiorespiratory events. METHODS: We included 942 consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery and cardiac procedures who were referred to the ICU between June 2007 and November 2011. RESULTS: Fifteen patients had acute respiratory distress syndrome (2%), 199 (27.75%) had mild TDGE, 402 (56.1%) had moderate TDGE, and 39 (5.4%) had severe TDGE. Hypertension and cardiogenic shock were associated with the emergence of moderate TDGE postoperatively (p = 0.02 and p = 0.019, respectively) and were risk factors for this dysfunction (p = 0.0023 and p = 0.0017, respectively). Diabetes mellitus was also a risk factor for TDGE (p = 0.03). Pneumonia was present in 8.9% of cases and correlated with the presence of moderate TDGE (p = 0.001). Severe TDGE was associated with patients who had had renal replacement therapy (p = 0.0005), hemotherapy (p = 0.0001), enteral nutrition (p = 0.0012), or cardiac arrhythmia (0.0451). CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative hypertension and cardiogenic shock were associated with the occurrence of postoperative TDGE. The preoperative risk factors included hypertension, cardiogenic shock, and diabetes. Postoperatively, pneumonia, VAP, renal replacement therapy, hemotherapy, and cardiac arrhythmia were associated with the appearance of some degree of TDGE, which was a risk factor for reintubation, pneumonia, VAP, and renal replacement therapy in the postoperative period of cardiac surgery and cardiac procedures
Doutorado
Fisiopatologia Cirúrgica
Doutora em Ciências

Au debut de 1943, les forces italo-allemandes quitterent la libye, les anglais et les francais y installerent les administrations militaires. La lutte pour la liberation de la libye prit une autre forme. La question libyenne, qui fait partie du probleme des anciennes colonies italiennes en afrique, fut soulevee dans les reunions successives des ministres des affaires etrangeres des grandes puissances. Du fait de leurs divergences, la question fut soumise en 1949 a l'assemblee generale des nations unies. Lors de la 3eme session de cette assemblee, la commission generale demanda l'inscription de la question libyenne a son ordre du jour. Pendant cette session, l'accord (bevin-storza) conclu entre l'angleterre et l'italie, fut rejete le 17 mai 1949. La grande bretagne alors annonca qu'elle avait accorde une autonomie partielle a la cyrenaique. Le 21 novembre 1949 la 4eme session de l'assemblee generale decida que la libye devait etre unifiee et proclamee independante avant le 1er janvier 1952. Le roi idris as-senoussi proclama l'independance de la libye le 24 decembre 1951
At the beginning of 1943 when the italo-german forces left libya, the english and the french established military administrations in their place. The struggle for the liberation of libya then took another form. The libyan issue, which formed part of the problem of former italian colonies in africa, was raised at successive meetings of foreign ministers of the great powers. As a result of their divergent views the issue was submitted to the general assembly of the united nations in 1949: during the 3rd session of the assembly the general commission asked that the libyan issue be put on the agenda. On the 17th of may 1949, the rejected the agreement (bevin-storza) signed between england and italy. Following the rejection britain announced that she had granted partial autonomy to cyrenaica. The 4th session of the general assembly held on 21st november 1949 decided that libya be unified and proclaimed independent before the 1st of january 1952. King idris as-senoussi proclaimed the independence of libya on the 24th of december 1951

The physical demands (high-intensity running and sprinting) of football match-play place footballers at increased risk of hamstring injuries. Some of the negative effects of a hamstring injury such as neuromuscular deficits and a decrease in performance are already known. While previous injury and age are known risk factors for future hamstring injuries, their relationship with the changes in eccentric hamstring strength and performance during the offseason in semi-professional footballers have not been studied. Moreover, a variety of resistance training interventions aiming at improving physical performance and strength are available in the literature, with inertial flywheel resistance training arising lately and providing promising results. The thesis aimed to firstly compare the use of inertial flywheel with gravity-dependent resistance training for improving physical performance and thigh muscle strength and, secondly, to test how previous injury, age and the off-season period affects physical performance and eccentric hamstring strength in semi-professional and amateur footballers
Les demandes condicionals (carreres a alta-intensitat i esprints) dels futbolistes en un partit es relacionen amb un increment del risc de lesions de la musculatura isquiosural. Alguns dels efectes negatius relacionats aquestes lesions són els dèficits neuromusculars i la reducció del rendiment. La història de lesió i l’edat són factors de risc per futures lesions, tot i que la relació amb la força excèntrica i el rendiment durant el període transitori en futbolistes semiprofessionals no s’ha estudiat detalladament. Existeixen diferents mètodes d’entrenament per poder millorar el rendiment i la força, on l’entrenament amb màquines inercials està donant resultats interessants. Els objectius de la tesi són, comparar l’ús de l’entrenament amb màquines inercials amb l’entrenament amb mètodes gravitacionals per la millora del rendiment físic i la força; i avaluar si la lesió prèvia, l’edat i el període transitori afecten el rendiment i la força excèntrica isquiosural en futbolistes semiprofessionals i amateurs
Programa de Doctorat en Biologia Molecular, Biomedicina i Salut

La gouvernance directe par une administration internationale tend à créer une vague contestation locale au state-building conduit de l'extérieur. Dans ce contexte, nos recherches au Kosovo et au Timor-Leste démontrent que la réponse politique, soit la gouvernance directe des "États effondrés", ne semble pas à même de répondre aux défis sociaux posés par la reconstruction des capacités étatiques dans un contexte post-conflit. En d'autres mots, la gouvernance directe par une administration internationale est difficilement compatible avec l'objectif de créer et d'assurer la légitimité d'un projet de state-building conduit de l'extérieur. Si les aspects propres à la légitimité sont initialement mis de côté lors de la conception de la mission et la conduite du state-building sur le terrain, ils tendent néanmoins à réaffirmer leur présence et leur importance au cours de l'intervention. Que ce soit au Kosovo ou au Timor-Leste, l'ONU s'est rapidement retrouvée conronté à une crise de légitimité quant à sa présence sur le terrain. En effet, la légitimité initiale de l'intervention et de l'intervenant s'est rapidement évanouie avec l'exercise du mandat d'administration directe sur le terrain. La contestation sans précédents des acteurs locaux sur le terrain n'a d'égal que le niveau d'autorité effective exercée par l'administration internationale. Cette étude a démontré notamment que le Kosovo et le Timor-Leste représentent des tentatives sans précédents de state-building international, notamment en ce qui a trait à l'autorité déployée sur le terrain par l'acteur international. Dans ce contexte, certains mécanismes de responsabilisation de l'intervenant s'avèrent nécessaires
Direct governance by an international administration tends to create a social backlash in a state-building context. In this regard, the contemporary international administration seems directly related to the mainstream conception of the state, state collapse and state-building. The political response, namely direct governance of “collapsed states,” seems unfit to correctly address the social challenges of postwar state-building. In other words, direct governance of war-torn territories is hardly compatible with the objective of fostering and nurturing legitimacy in an externally-led state-building project. The legitimacy aspects pertaining to state-building, if initially discarded in the setting-up and exercise of the peace mission’s mandate, will find a way to reaffirm themselves throughout the mission. In Kosovo as in Timor-Leste, the UN found itself embroiled in a deep legitimacy crises. Indeed, the missions’ legitimacy quickly withered away with the actual exercise of authority by the mission. The unprecedented contestation and resistance to the UN found in Kosovo and Timor-Leste is correlated with the equally unprecedented level of authority endowed to the peace mission, which translated into direct governance of the territories. This study has demonstrated that both Kosovo and Timor-Leste represent truly unprecedented attempts of state-building, not because of their mandate, but, more importantly, because their mandate has been translated into effective authority on the ground. In this context, accountability mechanisms can be instrumental in assuring a certain degree of trust between the international presence and the local population

Orientador: Roger William Fernandes Moreira
Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Odontologia de Piracicaba
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Resumo: O presente estudo retrospectivo teve por objetivo avaliar a complexidade dos traumatismos faciais decorrentes de acidente de trânsito considerando diagnóstico, tratamento e complicações e relacioná-los com o uso de dispositivos de segurança. Os dados foram coletados dos prontuários do arquivo da Área de Cirurgia Buco-Maxilo-Facial da Faculdade de Odontologia de Piracicaba/Unicamp no período de 1999 a 2007. A amostra foi de 657 pacientes dos quais 76,7% foram vítimas de acidente automobilístico e 23,3% de acidente motociclístico. Pacientes do gênero masculino e na faixa etária de 18 a 30 anos (63,7%) sofreram um maior número de acidentes de trânsito. Quanto à utilização do dispositivo de segurança de trânsito foi mais freqüente no gênero masculino e entre os motociclistas (73,8%). O tipo de trauma facial mais freqüente foram as fraturas ósseas (68,6%) localizadas no terço médio e na mandíbula. Em relação aos traumas associados à outros órgãos observou-se uma maior associação entre os traumas faciais e traumas ortopédicos, verificando-se uma maior freqüência (60,7%) em pacientes que não estavam utilizando nenhum tipo de dispositivos de segurança. O tratamento conservador foi o mais aplicado em 70,5% dos pacientes e a infecção foi a complicação mais freqüente. Os acidentes de trânsito ocorreram com maior freqüência nos pacientes adultos jovens do gênero masculino e os traumas de face associados a de outros órgãos quando as vítimas não estavam utilizando dispositivo de segurança. Dessa forma as campanhas educacionais e preventivas devem ser direcionadas para este público
Abstract: This retrospective study had as aim to evaluate the complexity of facial trauma due to traffic accident, considering diagnosis, treatment and complications and to relate them to the use of safety tools. The data were collected from the patient files of the department of Oral and Maxillo Facial Surgery in the Piracicaba/Unicamp Dental School in the period of 1999 to 2007. The sample consisted of 657 patients from wich 76,7% were car accident victms and 23,3% were motorcycle accident victms. Male Patients in the age range of 18 to 30 years old (63,7%) suffered a higher number of traffic accidents. Regarding to the use of traffic safety tools, the frequency was higher for male motorcycle users (73,8%). The most frequent types of facial trauma were bone fracture (68, 6%) located in the middle third of the face and mandible. Regarding to the trauma associated to other organs, it was observed a higher association between facial trauma and orthopedic trauma, with a higher frequency (60, 6%) in patients without safety traffic tools. The most applied treatment was the conservative in 70,5% of the patients and infection was the most frequent complication. The traffic accidents happened in a higher frequency in male young adults and the facial trauma associated to other organs occurred when the victims did not used safety tolls. Thus, preventive and educational campaigns should be targeted to this public
Doutorado
Cirurgia e Traumatologia Buco-Maxilo-Faciais
Doutor em Clínica Odontológica

L'étude cinétique d'une réaction catalytique permet une meilleure compréhension du mécanisme réactionnel et du fonctionnement du catalyseur. Elle est nécessaire pour le dimensionnement des réacteurs et des procédés. Les modèles micro-cinétiques sont constitués d'une séquence d'étapes élémentaires sans hypothèses sur les étapes cinétiquement déterminantes. Ces modèles sont applicables sur des plages de conditions opératoires plus larges que celles des modèles plus classiques de type Langmuir-Hinshelwood (LH) ou d'Hougen-Watson. Lorsqu'ils sont implémentés dans un modèle de réacteur, ils permettent d'obtenir une plus grande précision vis-à-vis du dimensionnement du catalyseur et du réacteur. Cependant, cette approche nécessite un nombre d'expériences plus élevé pour estimer les nombreux paramètres cinétiques qui le constituent. Ce travail de thèse porte sur le développement de modèles micro-cinétiques de systèmes catalytiques en exploitant les informations obtenues lorsque le catalyseur fonctionne en régime transitoire. En effet, l'expérimentation en régime transitoire, en comparaison avec celle classiquement réalisée en régime stationnaire, permet d'accéder à plus d'informations par une meilleure sensibilisation des réactions mises en jeu. Les études cinétiques en régime permanent sont plutôt adaptées pour des modèles cinétiques globaux qui considèrent un nombre limité d'étapes cinétiquement déterminantes (en général une seule). De ce fait, la compréhension du mécanisme réactionnel [1], la connaissance du nombre de types de sites actifs mis en jeu ou encore la détermination des vitesses de réaction des étapes élémentaires restent imprécises. Afin d'accéder aux différentes vitesses de réaction des étapes élémentaires, il est nécessaire de réaliser un grand nombre d'expériences en régime permanent, ce qui est très coûteux en temps et en argent. L'expérimentation en régime transitoire est donc une alternative qui permet d'accéder à des informations cinétiques détaillées dans un délai plus rapide. Cependant, l'interprétation des expériences est plus fastidieuse puisqu'elle nécessite le développement de modèles dynamiques de réacteur. Ces études consistent à réaliser des perturbations sous forme de pulses, d'échelons ou bien d'oscillations périodiques d'un certain nombre de paramètres d'état tels que la concentration des réactifs, la pression ou encore la température. Dans ces travaux, des oscillations périodiques de concentration sont réalisées en entrée de réacteur. Ce choix permet de réaliser des variations autour de l'état stationnaire, dans des conditions proches des celles utilisées dans l'industrie. La mise en place et la validation de cette méthodologie ont été réalisées pour un système catalytique réactionnel d'intérêt industriel : l'hydrogénation sélective de l'acétylène. Cette réaction a lieu en phase gaz au contact d'un catalyseur solide et présente l'avantage de mettre en jeu peu de composés facilement analysables. Une voie importante pour la production d'éthylène est le vapocraquage. L'éthylène produit par ce procédé contient de faibles quantités d'acétylène qu'il faut éliminer car il constitue un poison pour les procédés catalytiques en aval. Cette élimination se fait par l'hydrogénation sélective de l'acétylène, en présence d'éthylène, en employant un catalyseur à base de palladium. C'est une réaction rapide dont le mécanisme réactionnel n'est pas encore complètement connu.La cinétique transitoire permet non seulement d'étudier les réactions chimiques mais également de caractériser le transport des réactifs et des produits, de l'échelle du lit catalytique à l'échelle des pores du catalyseur. Un modèle de réacteur incluant un modèle cinétique a été développé pour expliquer les données expérimentales obtenues sur un réacteur pilote. Des manipulations en régime transitoires et une modélisation dynamique de l'unité pilote incluant un modèle micro-cinétique sont réalisées [etc...]
Kinetic experiments performed under stationary conditions mainly give information on the rate determining step. Numerous experiments must be done to estimate a limited number of parameters. Unsteady-state experiments, on the other hand, give more detailed information about the kinetics of the different elementary steps with a small number of experiments. In order to work under dynamic conditions, a perturbation of a process variable (concentration, pressure, temperature, etc.) is introduced at the reactor entrance (pulse, step, oscillation ...). This study explores periodic sinusoidal variations of the flow to obtain kinetics for heterogeneous catalytic processes. The kinetic information is contained in the phase lag and the gain change of the oscillations. The oscillations can be kept small and can be performed around steady-state operation, thus studying the kinetics under relevant conditions. First a model able to directly estimate the gain and phase lag has been created. Secondly, simple cases of adsorption have been performed in order to validate the model and to test the experimental set up. To finish, the approach has been applied to the selective hydrogenation of acetylene. Kinetic modeling was carried out in both stationary and dynamic conditions in order to compared the two methodologies

Dopo più di quarant’anni di tentativi tesi alla realizzazione di un titolo di protezione brevettuale “comunitario”, nel 2012 sono stati emanati due regolamenti, il n. 1257/2012 e il n. 1260/2012, attuativi di una cooperazione rafforzata tra ventisei Stati membri dell’Unione europea: essi creano un brevetto europeo con effetto unitario e ne disciplinano il regime di traduzione applicabile. L’anno successivo, venticinque Stati membri hanno firmato un accordo istitutivo del Tribunale unificato dei brevetti. I summenzionati strumenti normativi costituiscono il c.d. “pacchetto brevetti”, che entrerà in vigore una volta che almeno tredici Stati membri, tra cui Germania, Francia e Regno Unito, avranno ratificato l’Accordo. Rispetto al panorama attuale, caratterizzato da una frammentazione normativa e giurisdizionale, tale nuova architettura porterà indubbiamente notevoli vantaggi. Da un lato, infatti, i regolamenti europei introducono un “nuovo brevetto” che estende la sua efficacia oltre i confini nazionali; la portata della protezione e gli effetti saranno infatti uniformi in tutto il territorio degli Stati membri partecipanti. Dall’altro, il Tribunale unificato, competente a giudicare quasi tutte le controversie in materia brevettuale, si sostituirà ai giudici nazionali, garantendo l’uniformità della giurisdizione e delle decisioni. Tuttavia, il risultato ottenuto con il “pacchetto brevetti” non sembra essere adeguato agli obiettivi di unitarietà che le istituzioni europee e gli Stati membri si erano prefissati. Si tratta infatti di un quadro normativo complesso, che combina il diritto dell’Unione europea, il diritto internazionale (in particolare l’Accordo sul Tribunale unificato e la Convenzione sul brevetto europeo), e il diritto nazionale degli Stati membri, a cui gli atti citati rinviano in diverse occasioni, e che istituisce due strumenti, il brevetto europeo con effetto unitario e il Tribunale unificato dei brevetti, dalla natura assai controversa. Per tale ragione, la nuova normativa solleva molteplici questioni di natura costituzionale, in ordine alla compatibilità del nuovo sistema con l’ordinamento giuridico dell’Unione europea. Uno dei profili problematici di particolare interesse riguarda la cooperazione rafforzata in tema di tutela brevettuale unitaria, che sembra essere stata instaurata per eludere il dissenso di Italia e Spagna in relazione al regime linguistico applicabile. Inoltre, nei due regolamenti europei manca una vera e propria disciplina sostanziale, sollevando pertanto dei dubbi sull’effettiva “unitarietà” del nuovo brevetto. Infine, alcune caratteristiche del Tribunale unificato, quali la sua particolare struttura, il riparto interno delle competenze, il regime linguistico e la previsione di un periodo transitorio in cui è possibile ancora adire il giudice nazionale, si pongono in contrasto con il fine di unificazione giurisdizionale. A tali considerazioni si aggiunge che la decisione del Regno Unito di uscire dall’Unione europea potrebbe compromettere l’entrata in vigore del “pacchetto brevetti”. Obiettivo del presente lavoro è quello di analizzare in modo organico l’intera disciplina, nell’ottica di verificarne l’effettiva compatibilità con l’ordinamento dell’Unione europea. Solamente attraverso un approccio sistematico fondato sui principi e sugli strumenti dell’UE, si possono superare le attuali criticità che emergono dal “pacchetto brevetti”, nell’ottica di un effettivo miglioramento di tale nuova disciplina e del conseguente raggiungimento di una reale unitarietà nella tutela brevettuale.

El concepto de responsabilidad social que emergió en el mundo de las empresas ha trascendido al resto de organizaciones, las cuales son impulsadas por la sociedad a cumplir responsabilidades éticas que van más allá de los requerimientos legales o las necesidades de posicionamiento de sus marcas. La Universidad de La Salle, como ente universitario, pero además como organización católica y social, debe ir más allá de la responsabilidad social y transitar hacia la construcción de “valor social compartido” en donde además de procurar mejores condiciones económicas, sociales y medioambientales en su entorno, se pueda contribuir a la co-creación de valor a partir de la satisfacción de necesidades de los diversos grupos de interés. Este autodiagnóstico busca establecer el estado del ejercicio de la responsabilidad social de la Universidad de La Salle a 2015 para tener elementos de juicio que le permitan tomar decisiones, así como emprender los proyectos y programas necesarios

Este libro de ningún modo puede entenderse como la recopilación de escuelas universales de pensamiento o como la descripción de las escuelas de pensamiento propias de la Universidad de La Salle, pero sí se configura como una muestra de las múltiples entradas a la compleja oportunidad de transitar por los distintos niveles y posibilidades del pensar deliberado, del pensar que al construirse genera aprendizajes significativos que, a su vez, desestructuran estos pensamientos y los interpelan para que sean mejor pensados al ser repensados. En este sentido, el texto contiene un conjunto rizomático de evidencias del pensar en colectivo y del pensar desde la diversidad; del pensar deliberadamente en sintonía con los otros co-pensantes, sin que ineludiblemente se daban encontrar en el mismo dial. En correspondencia con lo expresado, el texto se estructura a partir de un conjunto de secciones imbricadas que, en el devenir del proceso, se asumieron como nodos problematizadores. De este modo el lector se encontrará con múltiples horizontes de sentido, diferentes formas de ver, atípicas maneras de co-ordinar y variadas formas de tratar complejos temas y problemas

This chapter examines how Toomer's interest in class-conscious radical politics was at best transitory and immature. Drawing on his early left-wing journalism, correspondence, handwritten 1936 autobiography, and psychoanalytic records from the late 1940s, the chapter argues that Toomer not only held strongly left-wing views during the Cane period but also remained in some respects a man of the left throughout his life. It also proposes that his social constructionist view of race, usually attributed to his situation as a light-skinned black man able to “pass,” is also traceable to his awareness of race as a product of capitalist exploitation and state-sanctioned racial violence—ideas that are allegorically displayed in his poem Banking Coal.

By the 1970s, concern that world hunger was increasing had energized the efforts of scholars, government officials, and those attentive to humanitarian concerns to focus on “food security” as the concept best suited to concert efforts to reduce global hunger. The problem was there was little agreement of what the term meant and how it could be used as an objective of policy; Simon Maxwell and Timothy Frankenberger unearthed two hundred separable definitions of the term. This chapter describes the evolution of food security thinking during the period 1970–90, from concern about the imbalance between existing food stocks and surging demand to concern about the difficulty in identifying the transitory and chronic causes of households being unable to gain secure access to the food they needed.

This paper estimates the output cost of fighting inflation—the sacrifice ratio—for the South African economy using quarterly data spanning the period 1998Q1–2019Q3. To compute the sacrifice ratio, the structural vector autoregressive model developed by Cecchetti and Rich (2001) based on Cecchetti (1994) is employed. Our findings show us a small sacrifice ratio, which lies within the range 0.00002–0.231 per cent with an average of 0.031 per cent, indicating a low level of output to be sacrificed while fighting inflation. Hence, the reserve bank is recommended to sustain an inflation rate within the target range and reap the benefits of a predictable and stable price path, as restrictive monetary policy has only a transitory effect on real variables like output.

This chapter discusses the 1950–64 period, during which Italy’s convergence to the productivity frontier proceeded at the fastest pace in its history. This burst of catch-up growth—the so-called ‘economic miracle’, which radically transformed Italian society—was driven by TFP growth. Though largely unreformed, the country’s economic institutions sustained structural change, technology absorption and adaptation, and intense capital accumulation. The weakness of this transitory growth model—for which the unlimited supply of labour from the agricultural sector was a critical condition—emerged when the North-West approached full employment. In 1962–4 an ambitious attempt to reform Italy’s economic institutions was defeated, also through means—including the threat of a coup d’état (Piano Solo)—that revealed the persisting profound inefficiency of its political institutions. The synchrony between the country’s progress through the stages of its development and the evolution of its economic institutions was thus broken.

This chapter discusses the classification of types of censorship as they have developed since 1945. Censorship of history has been practiced in all modes, genres, fields, categories, and periods of history, and in all countries. To begin with, it ranges over all modes of the historiographical operation. Pre-censorship, often invisible to the public, attempts to regulate research: archives are cleansed or kept secret, and manuscripts are rewritten without authorial consent. Meanwhile, post-censorship means that publications are banned, their authorship is deleted or changed without authorial consent, that lectures are boycotted, or the content of teaching courses is improperly interfered with. The importance of the censorship of history clearly varies according to whether a given political regime is dictatorial, democratic, or transitory between both. The chapter also analyzes the relationships between censorship and epistemology, truth and ethics.

AbstractThe chapter looks at the governance of migrant mobility in Greece in the period 2015–2018. It investigates how Greece managed migrant trajectories, with particular attention to irregular migrants and asylum seekers who entered through the land and sea borders, after the EU-Turkey Statement of March 2016. Building on empirical research conducted in the framework of the CeasEVAL project, with migrants and asylum seekers who crossed the external borders of Greece, the chapter contributes new findings to the growing field of research on borders and bordering practices and how they impact the (im)mobility trajectories of people on the move. As the findings suggest, the governance of migrants’ mobility sought not only to deter entry or provoke onward movement, but also to produce containment and divergence, both geographical and in terms of access to services. Mobility was regulated and controlled internally through the construction of administrative and legal barriers that in turn resulted in the inclusion/exclusion from key services, including asylum and accommodation. Reception conditions –particularly access to, or lack of accommodation– can define secondary movement, either by provoking or by deterring it. Thus, internal barriers can function as a key driver for the desire to undertake transitory movement, posing a challenge to the Schengen space.

AbstractThis final chapter summarizes the main contributions of the book and provides some ideas on carrying forward the research and action research agenda presented in this book. The peri-urban requires concerted engagement and new, transformative, policy approaches. Continued reliance on formal policy approaches is likely to have only a limited impact or even to be counterproductive. Strong partnerships across academics and civil society organizations are required in order to create a stronger scientific discourse on the peri-urban, as well as to catalyze changes within and beyond peri-urban spaces. While selective state apathy towards the peri-urban needs correction, the messy and transitory nature of peri-urban spaces will require engagements across a wide spectrum of actors beyond the state. An understanding of these approaches is necessary before prescribing “policy reforms” for the peri-urban.

This chapter discusses the reception of the ECHR in Russian and Ukraine. Topics covered include the accession and ratification of the ECHR in both countries, the status of ECHR in national law, an overview of the activity of the Court, and the Court's case law and its effect on the national legal order. Despite the similar starting point for the reception of the ECHR in Russia and Ukraine, the later developments are marked by numerous divergences. The development in Russia, after a period of instability in the 1990s, led to the reestablishment of a more authoritarian rule under President Putin. Internally, Russia is struggling with the consequences of the war in Chechnya, but externally it takes a leading role in world politics and, with newly acquired self-confidence, starts to close the doors for criticism from abroad. In contrast, the transitory period in Ukraine continues.

This chapter discusses the phenomenon of ‘occupation’. Occupation refers to this particular phase in international armed conflict (IAC) where a belligerent has overpowered the adverse party and taken control of enemy territories, but the final outcome of the war has not yet been decided. Occupation is thus a transition phase between the end of active hostilities and formal conclusion of the conflict. It is a period where foreign armed forces are responsible for the administration of territories belonging to the defeated state. During this transitory period towards peace, international law seeks to ensure that the rights of the territorial state are not infringed and that local populations are protected against any risk of abuse by potentially hostile authorities. The chapter then looks at the sources, scope, and substance of the law of occupation. While relevant rules mainly fall under international humanitarian law (IHL), it is recognized today that human rights law is also applicable during occupation.

Abstract This chapter shows how anti-base activists take advantage of volatility, rather than stasis, in the local life surrounding U.S. military bases. It is not the unvarying presence of military bases, but rather major disruptions to the status quo at long-standing bases, that sparks mobilization. When major changes occur to long-standing bases, such as expansion, relocation, reduction, and closure, the American military monolith—as well as the quotidian life built around it—is suddenly rendered fluid. For base opponents, this sudden volatility presents both a threat that disrupts the normality in base towns and opportunities for oppositional mobilization. As the disruption of normality begins, activists are able to exploit a window of opportunity before the disruption becomes a possible new normal. During this transitory period, anti-base mobilization peaks. Notable cases include Camp Humphreys in Korea and Camp Schwab in Japan.

This chapter analyses the implementation of the Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) of January 2020 (Withdrawal Agreement—WA) during the transition period in 2020 up to the first quarter of 2021. While formally transitory, the WA governs continuing bonds which will endure for decades. The chapter focuses on two fields in which this particularly prevalent, Part Two of the WA and the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland. Both manage permanent situations, the need to protect the reliance of EU citizens on the durability of their rights after moving to the UK or from the UK into the EU, and the need to manage the hybridity of Northern Ireland between Ireland and the UK. Implementing those remnants of EU membership constitutes a permanent struggle. This chapter elaborates the ensuing difficulties and concludes with practical proposals for how to alleviate negative repercussion.

In this chapter, untimely age is hypervisible as shape-shifting: Black embodiment appears to shift from one mode to another and, specifically, age appears to shift from one transitory moment to the next, rather than transform over a long developmental or biological period of time. Black age is linked to the shifting appearance of the commodity and its value, which is expressed in an “age-shifting” performance in Harriet Beecher Stowe’s Uncle Tom’s Cabin (1852). “Value” overrides hierarchal differences between both gender and age. The logic of horizontal kinship is germane to Jordan Peele’s 2017 film, Get Out, in which the shared dispossession of the black adult son and the black mother re-emerges through a body-snatching act that leads to the recommodification and untimeliness of black embodiment. As this chapter argues, shifting is thinkable in relation to body-snatching, which is figurative of the unseen side of social domination. Together, the shape-shifter and the body-snatcher mutually illustrate the condition of black hypervisibility, and a related condition of simultaneously seeing remnants of the discarded past within the shifting dynamism of the historical present.

Over the past several years, the live-streaming of digital games has experienced a vast increase in popularity, coinciding with the rise of eSports as an entertainment medium. For a rapidly growing audience, streamed content provides material from an ever-increasing roster of games, tournaments, and special events. Recently, streaming platforms, game developers, and professional players have experimented with the inclusion of viewer interaction through mechanisms such as chat, broadcast messages, donations, and voting systems. With the advent of these mechanisms, the concept of game viewership has entered a transitory period; while still largely focused on consumption, for many spectators, the viewing experience is no longer an entirely passive act. The idea of interactive spectatorship (the authors refer to it as Spectator-players) carries the potential for audience members to engage with content at a much deeper level, participating actively in a novel form of entertainment and contributing to an enriched gaming community. This novel form of gaming interaction poses interesting challenges for game designers, as it requires design considerations to meet the needs of players, passive viewers, and active audience members alike. In this paper, the authors examine the opportunities and challenges presented by the design of interactive spectator experiences. Ultimately, they propose a series of design guidelines aimed at the exploration of development in the area of interactive spectator experiences.

This paper presents a brief synopsis of the Miocene Epoch, an important transitory chapter in the history of the Earth. It was during the Miocene that the major continents and oceans attained a “modern” configuration in terms of paleogeography and tectonics, oceanic ventilation and circulation, ocean chemistry, and faunal and floral assemblages. It also was during the Miocene that global climate fully transitioned into its current icehouse state, including marked growth of the Antarctic ice sheet and initiation of the Arctic ice cap. Long-term global cooling was controlled by a number of factors including tectonics, the large-scale changes in the distribution of flora, particularly the expansion of grasslands, and by fluctuating orbital parameters of the Earth. This global cooling trend was briefly interrupted by a short period of warming in the middle Miocene. Miocene sea-level changes consisted of a number of glacio-eustatic third-order (1–5 million year [m.y.] duration) cycles superposed upon three longer-term, second-order (5–20 m.y. duration) supercycles. Development of large-scale tropical carbonate systems in the Miocene was relegated to three main geographic regions: the circum-Caribbean, Mediterranean, and Indo-Pacific. In addition, a pronounced cool-water platform system developed along the southern margin of Australia. Miocene reefal buildups were dominated by tropical to subtropical framework assemblages consisting primarily of large scleractinian corals, encrusting red algae, and rhodoliths (free-living coralline red algae) that grew on platform margins and interiors or on isolated atolls. Miocene carbonates were deposited in a variety of oceanic and structural settings and constitute important petroleum reservoirs, particularly in Southeast Asia. Deep-water terrigenous clastic sediments of Miocene age are also important petroleum reservoirs in some regions. In addition, the Miocene interval contains numerous prolific petroleum source rocks, most composed of Type III (gas-prone) kerogen.

Transportation is a sector of activity in permanent change. From airplanes to cars, trains and boats all forms of transportation aim at meeting personal or business needs of displacement of persons and goods. Those needs include safety, reliability, on time with the best effectiveness, and finally, providing the best price. This paper aims at studying car transportation’s consequences regarding last developments that culminate in the self-driving cars. This study analyses the impact of such changes at social and industrial level, considering also the coexistence of traditional cars and self-driving cars in diverse aspects. The authors aim to establish a proficient debate on such important changes for the near future, to create awareness of the potential consequences of such societal and business revolution and generate some conclusions addressing these complex challenges for the years to come. This paper also issues some recommendations for the coexistence of self-driving, autonomous and traditional cars during the transitory period.

The dual adjustment approach enables us to consider separate dual co-movements of permanent and transitory components of time series variables and hence the possibility of dual adjustment. The common {filtered} trend concept is developed within the framework of dual adjustment approach and a simple test for the existence of such relationship is suggested for nonstationary macroeconomic variables. This paper investigates the dual adjustment with an application to the private sector fixed capital investment function by using the Turkish data over the 1963-2017 period. Our results indicated that private sector fixed capital investment and income, public sector fixed capital investment and macroeconomic instability are not cointegrated and hence they have spurious relationship. In contrast, according to the dual adjustment approach, these variables have a long run relationship. Additionally, it is shown that there are dual relationships between permanent and temporary components of private sector fixed capital investment and income. Furthermore, it is shown that there is no long run relationship between private sector fixed capital investments and public sector fixed capital investments but they are negatively related in the short run. In addition, it is concluded that macroeconomic instability is detrimental for private sector fixed capital investments only in the long run.

Smartphone is emerging as the most popular electronic media in the last few years. With many high performance chips integrated inside, such mobile electronic system is already capable of performing a series of sophisticated computing which can only be carried out by a desktop computer before. Meanwhile, the large amount of heat released from the high flux heat generation also caused evident thermal discomfort to the users. As a remedy, the recently proposed method of using low melting point metal to absorb the transitory heat from the device opens a promising approach for keeping smartphone cool. To push forward the development of this new thermal management method, the present study is dedicated to present a comprehensive analysis on the cooling capacity of the metal phase change material for the thermal management of mobile phone subject to various running states, especially those when extremely long conversation time up to a half hour or longer occurs. A three dimensional phase change heat transfer model was established to simulate several typical continuous or transient heating cases often encountered in reality. It can be found that, through an optimum design among the geometric sizes of the cooling modular, the chip structures as well as the utilized amount of the metal phase change material, the method is highly useful for cooling the mobile phone running even under an unconventionally long communication period. Further, improvement for a better and compact thermal management through material innovation was also suggested.

Fashion designer is one of dominate role in a fashion luxury brand. There are many cases that luxury fashion brand via recruiting a creative designer to revive their commercial empire. For example, Tom Ford capitalizes on ten years to make nearly bankrupt Gucci resurge, even become a bellwether that value 4.3 billion market cap in the luxury industry[1]. But, that is not mean every designer could be lucky to cooperate with a brand that match his or her design style, such as the transitory cooperation of Kalvin Klein and Raf Simons. Thus, except the cooperation situation of designer and company, the other critical factor to determinate one designer whether match a brand is the balance between design and marketing. This report examines the plight of fashion luxury brand when designer changing. And explore how to remedy the loosing of brand core competitiveness and discuss a sires of reasons why new design concept useless for sales improvement, also, how to utilize marketing strategy such as visual communication to maintain brand equity. In this paper, the author conducted a series of comprehensive methodologies such as content analysis, historical research and case study to probe the role of designer for luxury brands and describes that marketing strategy might contribute to protect brand value in the period of brand upgrading. The research finding that, whilst designer changing, the visual marketing could be an effective method to help luxury fashion brand tide over difficulties, whole visual presenting of brand could maintain the impression in customer mind.

The COVID-19 pandemic has arguably caused the biggest disruption to the museum and heritage sector since the Second World War. All over the world, museums have had to close, some never to reopen, and many have had to suspend their operations for prolonged periods. However, the disruption has also invited – sometimes forced – substantial changes in the way museums perceive themselves and their interactions with their audiences. This has included an increased focus on digital offers, a reconsideration of the human relationships with external as well as internal stakeholders, new ways to guarantee the preservation, documentation and availability of collections and revised financial and sustainability planning. Some of these changes will be transitory, while others are likely to leave permanent footprints on the identity of museums and the way they operate even after the emergency has passed. This conference will highlight and discuss some of the initiatives and innovations that emerged from the past year, with particular attention to curatorship, conservation, learning and participation, and documentation and research. Critical perspectives, as well as case studies are invited to focus on the long-term impact of the pandemic and on the way the identity of music museums, their value and relevance to society and research, and their ways of operating internally and externally may have been transformed. CIMCIM 2021 Conference Organising Committee Gabriele Rossi Rognoni (Royal College of Music, London, UK) Mimi Waitzman (Horniman Museum and Gardens, London, UK) Marie Martens (The Danish Music Museum, Copenhagen, Denmark) Arnold Myers (University of Edinburgh and Royal Conservatoire of Scotland, Glasgow, UK) Jen Schnitker (Metropolitan Museum of Art, New York, USA)

Com a crescente disseminação do Building Information Modelling (BIM) no Brasil, a academia passou a discutir e aprimorar suas grades visando a inserção da metodologia nos cursos de Arquitetura e Engenharia. A graduação em Engenharia Civil da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), campus Macaé, capacita profissionais para atuar nos mais diversos setores desta área de conhecimento, apresentando um caráter generalista desde sua concepção. Entretanto, o curso conta somente com uma disciplina eletiva com enfoque no paradigma BIM, intitulada “Introdução ao BIM”. Portanto, o objetivo desta pesquisa é apresentar uma avaliação da grade curricular do curso e o potencial alinhamento com a metodologia BIM. O trabalho é fruto da pesquisa de conclusão de curso para obtenção do título de Engenheiro Civil. A análise geral do Projeto Pedagógico do Curso (PPC) foi realizada mediante a aplicação do método desenvolvido pela professora Checcucci (2014). Esta divide-se entre as matérias do Núcleo Básico (em que as disciplinas são lecionadas em conjunto com a Engenharia de Produção e Engenharia Mecânica), Núcleo Profissionalizante e Núcleo Específico. Este último apresenta uma segmentação em cinco eixos temáticos, são eles: Sistemas Estruturais; Sistemas Hidrológicos e Saneamento; Sistemas Geomecânicos; Sistemas de Construção Civil; e Sistemas de Transportes e Logística. De modo a facilitar a leitura da grade e torná-la mais harmônica, a mesma foi reformulada e representada no programa Microsoft Excel. Posteriormente, foi realizado um reagrupamento das disciplinas por cores, utilizando os quadros referentes às cargas horárias e código de 8 cores que separa o núcleo comum e os eixos temáticos que compõem o núcleo profissionalizante. O próximo passo foi a identificação quantitativa e qualitativa das disciplinas que efetivamente apresentam interação com o BIM. Inicialmente, foram removidos todos os componentes curriculares que não possuem qualquer interface com o BIM, sendo mantidos somente aqueles que apresentam potencial para trabalhar algum de seus conceitos, a depender do enfoque conferido pelo professor, ou que possui interface clara com o BIM. Por fim, com as análises efetuadas e as disciplinas classificadas, foi possível gerar um quantitativo de todas as componentes curriculares que possuem conexões com o BIM. Observou-se que de 27 matérias do Núcleo Básico, 13 têm possíveis interações com o BIM, e dessas 13 disciplinas, 4 apresentam interações claras. Já no eixo temático de Sistemas Estruturais todas as 10 disciplinas possuem vínculos com a metodologia, e somente 4 possuem conexões claras. Em Sistemas Hidrológicos e Saneamento, de 5 disciplinas somente 1 exibe possíveis relações com o BIM. O eixo temático de Sistemas Geomecânicos, conta com 5 disciplinas, dentre as quais 2 expõem possíveis elos com o BIM. Das 8 disciplinas de Sistemas de Construção Civil, 7 manifestam possíveis associações e 6 demonstram ligações claras com o BIM. No eixo temático de Sistemas de Transportes e Logística, nenhuma das 3 componentes curriculares apresentam relação com a metodologia. Por fim, a disciplina do TCC não possui diretrizes e ementas específicas, permitindo que todos os aspectos relativos ao BIM abordados, cabendo ao discente e ao seu orientador definirem qual linha de pesquisa pretendem adotar. Podemos concluir, portanto, que é viável inserir a metodologia BIM já no primeiro período do núcleo de conteúdos básicos, trabalhando conceitos que envolvem colaboração, programação e informática que intrínsecos à utilização dos softwares, além da introdução à modelagem BIM. As 4 disciplinas, a saber: “Introdução à Engenharia”, “Sistemas Projetivos”, “Engenharia e Sustentabilidade” e “Desenho Computacional”, revelam que é possível debater assuntos que permeiam o BIM de forma clara já nos períodos iniciais do curso. É importante ressaltar a disciplina “Introdução à Engenharia”, como a única da grade em que é possível transitar por todos os conceitos que regem o paradigma BIM. Entretanto, o fato de ser uma disciplina com baixa carga horária e presente no 1º período de integração curricular, pode dificultar a absorção por parte dos alunos sobre todas as vantagens que o BIM pode proporcionar. Além disso, se trata de uma disciplina que é lecionada em conjunto com todos os alunos que adentram o curso de Engenharia da UFRJ Macaé (Civil, Mecânica e Produção). Conclui-se, também, que mais da metade das disciplinas que compõem o núcleo profissionalizante podem trabalhar os aspectos do BIM, permeando sobre diversos conceitos, etapas e projetos. Vale destacar que a única disciplina na qual foi encontrada relação com a etapa de demolição e requalificação da edificação, foi “Engenharia e Sustentabilidade”, mostrando que esse é um aspecto pouco abordado na grade curricular. A etapa do uso (operação e manutenção) pode ser abordada na disciplina “Edificações II”, ao introduzir o tema de patologia da construção, e também na disciplina de “Engenharia Portuária e Costeira”, sob o enfoque da operação de portos. Todas as disciplinas do Eixo de Sistemas Estruturais possuem ao menos uma interface com o BIM, nas quais é possível trabalhar todos os seus conceitos, podendo passar pelas etapas de projetação, planejamento e construção. Vale ressaltar que este é o eixo do ciclo de profissionalização com a maior carga horária da grade. O Eixo dos Sistemas de Construção Civil é o que possui mais disciplinas e maior carga horária com interface clara com o paradigma BIM. Todos os conceitos estão contemplados nessas disciplinas, salientando que o BIM pode oferecer uma contribuição importante ao desenvolvimento de profissionais com ampla visão sobre os processos que envolvem sua atuação. A disciplina “Desenho Técnico Aplicado à Engenharia Civil” deve ser a responsável por discutir e apresentar as funcionalidades de um software BIM específico, proporcionando ao aluno o desenvolvimento dos diversos tipos de projetos. Sendo assim, é possível trabalhar todas as disciplinas de projeto BIM nas disciplinas já existentes na grade. Por fim, em termos quantitativos, a carga horária de disciplinas com interface clara com o BIM (780 horas) representam 23% da carga horária total de disciplinas obrigatórias (3390 horas), e 30,6% (630 horas) dos Ciclos Profissionalizante e Específico (2055 horas). Apresentação no YouTube: https://youtu.be/bKOnE0OqJhs

Contrary to the opinions expressed by many commentators, the recent price spike in agricultural commodities is a transitory phenomenon. Using projections from SIMPLE – a global model of the farm and food system – we argue that, in the long run, food prices will most likely resume their historical downward trend. We begin with an evaluation of the historical period 1961 to 2006 wherein the growth in agricultural productivity outpaced that of global crop demand, the latter being fueled by rising population and incomes. As a consequence, we observed a historical decline in global crop prices, which the SIMPLE model faithfully reproduces. Moving forward to 2051, we establish a set of projections in global crop prices given expected developments in population, incomes, agricultural productivity and biofuel use. We project that global crop prices will continue their long run decline in the coming decades, albeit at a slower pace. However, we recognize that, under some circumstances, global crop prices could still increase by mid-century. To formally assess the likelihood of future price changes, we conduct Monte Carlo simulations given distributions in the growth rates of both drivers and economic responses. Results show that 72% of the realizations produce price declines from 2006 to 2051. Keywords: crop commodity prices, long run projections, population growth, income growth, biofuels, crop productivity JEL: Q11, Q12, Q18

El avance hacia la descarbonización de la mano de nuevas tecnologías ha llevado a las principales economías mundiales a demandar un suministro confiable de minerales críticos como cobre, litio, níquel, cobalto, tierras raras, entre otros. Esto representa una oportunidad única para los países de América Latina y el Caribe (ALC) de sacar ventaja de su rica dotación de recursos minerales. Pero capturar las oportunidades implica no sólo asegurar el abastecimiento de los minerales, sino también de hacerlo de forma responsable y sostenible. El estudio “Bases para impulsar una minería sostenible y responsable: Una ventana para dar un salto de prosperidad en el siglo XXI” del BID buscó generar una primera aproximación hacia una minería sostenible y responsable, especialmente para el caso del cobre. Esta se define como aquella que es capaz de generar valor a través de dinámicas de acción colectiva que minimizan los daños ambientales y fortalecen las distintas formas de capital necesarias para crear valor económico, social y ambiental sostenible para las generaciones actuales y futuras. Para ello, se generó un marco conceptual para evaluar el estado de madurez del sector, identificar brechas y transitar hacia una minería sostenible y responsable, identificando cinco pilares estratégicos y catorce líneas de acción para lograrlo. Este documento sintetiza la aplicación de dicho marco para el caso de Ecuador.

América Latina y el Caribe (ALC) fue una de las regiones más castigadas por la pandemia de COVID-19. A fin de mitigar los efectos de la pandemia, los gobiernos han utilizado principalmente dos instrumentos con el objetivo de facilitar el acceso de empresas y personas a la financiación bancaria: esquemas de garantías estatales y programas de moratorias o refinanciación de deudas bancarias. Los programas de moratoria y reestructuración crediticia se concibieron como una forma de alivio crediticio transitorio para empresas y familias. Estos programas se basaron principalmente en la excepción regulatoria sobre clasificación y aprovisionamiento de deudores, por lo que se aprobaron normas que permitían extender los plazos de pagos o reprogramar deudas, sin que ello tuviera impacto en la clasificación crediticia del cliente ni en el aprovisionamiento de la cartera. A diferencia de los esquemas de garantías estatales, los programas de moratoria implicaron un esfuerzo para los bancos, pero no tuvieron consecuencias directas para las arcas de los fiscos. Esta publicación presenta el análisis y conclusiones de un estudio sobre programas de moratoria y reprogramación crediticia en tiempos de COVID-19 en ALC. Se presentan aspectos generales de los programas de moratoria crediticia implementados y se analizan el contexto previo a su implementación, sus principales características generales y sus principales resultados e impacto potencial. Asimismo, se estudian los aspectos relevantes identificados y se identifican buenas prácticas para el diseño e implementación de programas de moratoria de créditos.

El sistema financiero colombiano no ha sufrido mayores traumatismos estructurales durante estos meses de profunda contracción económica, y ha continuado prestando con normalidad sus funciones básicas, facilitando la respuesta de la economía a condiciones extremas. Ello es el resultado de la solidez de las entidades financieras al inicio de la crisis, reflejada en elevados indicadores de liquidez y solvencia, y de la oportuna respuesta de distintas entidades. El Banco de la República redujo 250 puntos sus tasas de interés de política, hasta 1,75%, el menor nivel desde la creación del nuevo Banco independiente en 1991, y otorgó amplia liquidez transitoria y permanente, tanto en pesos como en moneda extranjera. Por su parte, la Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia adoptó medidas prudenciales para facilitar cambios en las condiciones de los créditos vigentes y reglas transitorias de calificación y constitución de provisiones. Finalmente, el Gobierno Nacional expandió las transferencias y los programas de créditos garantizados a la economía. El acervo de crédito real (i.e. descontando la inflación) en la economía supera hoy en 4% el de hace 12 meses, con crecimientos especialmente marcados en la cartera de vivienda (5,6%) y comercial (4,7%) (2,3% en consumo y -0,1% en microcrédito), pero ha habido cambios importantes en el tiempo. En los meses iniciales de la cuarentena las firmas elevaron fuertemente sus demandas por liquidez, y los consumidores las redujeron, mientras que en los meses recientes la dinámica del crédito a las firmas ha tendido a desacelerarse, y la del crédito a los consumidores y a la vivienda ha crecido. El sistema financiero ha respondido satisfactoriamente a la evolución de la demanda relativa de cada grupo o sector, y el crédito posiblemente crecerá a tasas altas en 2021 si el PIB crece a tasas cercanas a 4,6% como lo espera el equipo técnico del Banco, pero los pronósticos son altamente inciertos. Luego de la fuerte cuarentena implementada por las autoridades en Colombia, las turbulencias observadas en marzo y comienzos de abril, evidentes en el enrojecimiento repentino de variables macroeconómicas en el mapa de riesgos del Gráfico A , y la caída en los precios del petróleo y el carbón (nótese las altas volatilidades registradas en la región de riesgo de mercado del Gráfico A), los mercados financieros locales se estabilizaron con relativa rapidez. En esta estabilización tuvo un papel determinante la respuesta de política creíble y sostenida del Banco de la República en lo referente a la provisión de liquidez, con una fuerte expansión de operaciones repo (y variaciones en montos, plazos, contrapartes e instrumentos admisibles), la compra definitiva de deuda pública y privada, y la reducción del encaje de los bancos. En este sentido, hoy se observa abundante liquidez agregada y mejoras importantes en la posición de liquidez de los fondos de inversión colectiva. En este contexto, el principal factor de incertidumbre para la estabilidad financiera en el corto plazo continúa siendo el alto grado de incertidumbre que rodea a la calidad de la cartera. En primer lugar, es incierta la trayectoria futura del número de contagiados y fallecidos como consecuencia del virus y la eventual necesidad de medidas sanitarias adicionales. Por tal razón, también existe incertidumbre sobre la senda de recuperación de la economía en el corto y mediano plazo. En segundo lugar, es incierto el grado en que el choque actual se reflejará en la calidad de la cartera una vez se materialice el riesgo en los estados financieros. De momento, el mapa de riesgos (Gráfico B) indica que la cartera vencida y la cartera riesgosa no han mostrado mayores deterioros, pero la experiencia histórica indica que períodos de fuerte desaceleración económica tienden a coincidir eventualmente con aumentos de la cartera vencida: los cálculos incluidos en este reporte sugieren que el impacto de la recesión sobre la calidad del crédito en el corto plazo podría ser significativo. Ello es particularmente preocupante teniendo en cuenta que la rentabilidad de los establecimientos de crédito ha venido reduciéndose en meses recientes, lo cual podría afectar su capacidad para otorgar crédito al sector real de la economía. Con el fin de adoptar un enfoque prospectivo de cara a las vulnerabilidades identificadas, este reporte presenta varios ejercicios de sensibilidad (stress tests) que evalúan la resiliencia de la liquidez y la solvencia de los establecimientos de crédito y de los fondos de inversión colectiva ante escenarios hipotéticos que buscan aproximarse a una versión extrema de las condiciones económicas actuales. Los resultados sugieren que, en tales escenarios, se observarían fuertes impactos sobre el volumen de crédito y la rentabilidad de los establecimientos de crédito, aunque los indicadores agregados de solvencia total y básica permanecerían en niveles superiores a los límites regulatorios durante el horizonte de los ejercicios. Al tiempo, los ejercicios resaltan la alta capacidad que tiene la liquidez del sistema para enfrentar escenarios adversos. En cumplimiento de sus objetivos constitucionales y en coordinación con la red de seguridad del sistema financiero, el Banco de la República continuará monitoreando de cerca el panorama de estabilidad financiera en esta coyuntura y tomará aquellas decisiones que sean necesarias para garantizar el adecuado funcionamiento de la economía, facilitar los flujos de recursos suficientes de crédito y liquidez, y promover el buen funcionamiento del sistema de pagos. Juan José Echavarría Gerente General

1.1 Resumen macroeconómico En el segundo trimestre la economía enfrentó varios choques, principalmente de oferta y de costos, la mayoría de los cuales no fueron anticipados, o los previstos fueron más persistentes de lo esperado, y que en conjunto interrumpieron la recuperación de la actividad económica observada a comienzos de año y llevaron la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta. La inflación básica (sin alimentos ni regulados: SAR) aumentó, pero se mantuvo baja y acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico. A comienzos de abril se inició una tercera ola de pandemia, más acentuada y prolongada que la anterior, con un elevado costo en vidas humanas y algún impacto negativo en la recuperación económica. Entre mayo y mediados de junio los bloqueos de las carreteras y los problemas de orden público tuvieron un fuerte efecto negativo sobre la actividad económica y la inflación. Se estima que la magnitud de estos dos choques combinados habría generado una caída en niveles en el producto interno bruto (PIB) con respecto al primer trimestre del año. Adicionalmente, los bloqueos causaron un aumento significativo de los precios de los alimentos. A estos choques se sumaron los efectos acumulados de la disrupción global en algunas cadenas de valor y el incremento en los fletes internacionales que desde finales de 2020 vienen generando restricciones de oferta y aumentos de costos. Todos estos factores, que afectaron principalmente el índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) de bienes y de alimentos, explicaron la mayor parte del error de pronóstico del equipo técnico y el aumento de la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta del 3 %. El incremento en la inflación básica y de los precios de los regulados fue acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico, y se explica principalmente por la eliminación de varios alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. A todo esto se suma la mayor percepción de riesgo soberano y las presiones al alza que esto implica sobre el costo de financiamiento externo y la tasa de cambio. A pesar de los fuertes choques negativos, el crecimiento económico esperado para la primera mitad del año (9,1%), es significativamente mayor que lo proyectado en el informe de abril (7,1%), signo de una economía más dinámica que se recuperaría más rápido de lo previsto. Desde finales de 2020 las diferentes cifras de actividad económica han mostrado un crecimiento mayor que el esperado. Esto sugiere que los efectos negativos sobre el producto de las recurrentes olas de contagio estarían siendo cada vez menos fuertes y duraderos. No obstante, la tercera ola de contagio del Covid-19, y en mayor medida los bloqueos a las vías y los problemas de orden público, habrían generado una caída del PIB durante el segundo trimestre, frente al primero. Pese a lo anterior, los datos del índice de seguimiento a la economía (ISE) de abril y mayo han resultado mayores que lo esperado, y las nuevas cifras de actividad económica sectoriales sugieren que el impacto negativo de la pandemia sobre el producto se sigue moderando, en un entorno de menores restricciones a la movilidad y de mayor avance en el ritmo de vacunación. Los registros de transporte de carga (junio) y la demanda de energía no regulada (julio), entre otros, indican una recuperación importante después de los bloqueos en mayo. Con todo lo anterior, el incremento anual del PIB del segundo trimestre se habría situado alrededor del 17,3 % (antes 15,8 %), explicado en gran parte por una base baja de comparación. Para todo 2021 el equipo técnico incrementó su proyección de crecimiento desde un 6 % hasta el 7,5 %. Este pronóstico, que está rodeado de una incertidumbre inusualmente elevada, supone que no se presentarán problemas de orden público y que posibles nuevas olas de contagio del Covid-19 no tendrán efectos negativos adicionales sobre la actividad económica. Frente al pronóstico del informe pasado, la recuperación de la demanda externa, los niveles de precios de algunos bienes básicos que exporta el país y la dinámica de las remesas de trabajadores han sido mejores que las esperadas y seguirían impulsando la recuperación del ingreso nacional en lo que resta del año. A esto se sumaría la aún amplia liquidez internacional, la aceleración en el proceso de vacunación y las bajas tasas de interés, factores que continuarían favoreciendo la actividad económica. La mejor dinámica del primer semestre, que llevó a una revisión al alza en el crecimiento de todos los componentes del gasto, continuaría hacia adelante y, antes de lo esperado en abril, la economía recuperaría los niveles de producción de 2019 a finales de 2021. El pronóstico continúa incluyendo efectos de corto plazo sobre la demanda agregada de una reforma tributaria de magnitud similar a la proyectada por el Gobierno. Con todo eso, en el escenario central de este informe, el pronóstico de crecimiento para 2021 es del 7,5 % y para 2022 del 3,1 %. A pesar de esto, el nivel de la actividad económica seguiría siendo inferior a su potencial. La mejora en estas proyecciones, sin embargo, está rodeada de una alta incertidumbre. En junio la inflación anual (3,63 %) aumentó más de lo esperado debido al comportamiento del grupo de alimentos, mientras que la inflación básica (1,87 %) fue similar a la proyectada. En lo que resta del año el mayor nivel del IPC de alimentos persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta. A finales de 2022 la inflación total y básica retornarían a tasas cercanas al 3 %, en un entorno de desaceleración del IPC de alimentos y de menores excesos de capacidad productiva. En los meses recientes el aumento en los precios internacionales de los fletes y de los bienes agrícolas, y las mayores exportaciones de carne y el ciclo ganadero han ejercido presiones al alza sobre el precio de los alimentos, principalmente de los procesados. A estas fuerzas persistentes se sumaron los bloqueos de las vías nacionales y los problemas de orden público en varias ciudades registrados en mayo y parte de junio, los cuales se reflejaron en una fuerte restricción en la oferta y en un aumento anual no esperado del IPC de alimentos (8,52 %). El grupo de regulados (5,93 %) también se aceleró, debido a la baja base de comparación en los precios de la gasolina y a la disolución de parte de los alivios a las tarifas de servicios públicos otorgados en 2020. Como se proyectaba, la inflación SAR repuntó al 1,87 %, debido a la reactivación de los impuestos indirectos de algunos bienes y servicios eliminados un año atrás, y por las presiones al alza que ejercieron los alimentos sobre las comidas fuera del hogar (CFH), entre otros. En lo que resta del año se espera que el aumento en los alimentos perecederos se revierta, siempre y cuando no se registren nuevos bloqueos duraderos a las vías nacionales. El mayor nivel de precios de los alimentos procesados persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta a finales de año. La inflación SAR continuaría con una tendencia creciente, en la medida en que los excesos de capacidad productiva se sigan cerrando y registraría un aumento transitorio en marzo de 2022, debido principalmente al restablecimiento del impuesto al consumo en las CFH. Con todo esto, para finales de 2021 y 2022 se estima una inflación total del 4,1 % y 3,1 %, y una inflación básica del 2,6 % y 3,2 %, respectivamente. El comportamiento conjunto de los precios del IPC SAR, junto con continuas sorpresas al alza en la actividad económica, son interpretados por el equipo técnico como señales de amplios excesos de capacidad productiva de la economía. Estos persistirían en los siguientes dos años, al final de los cuales la brecha del producto se cerraría. El mayor crecimiento económico sugiere una brecha del producto menos negativa que la estimada hace un trimestre. Sin embargo, el comportamiento de la inflación básica, especialmente en servicios, indica que el PIB potencial se ha recuperado de forma sorpresiva y que los excesos de capacidad siguen siendo amplios, con una demanda agregada afectada de forma persistente. Esta interpretación encuentra soporte en el mercado laboral, en donde persiste un desempleo alto y la recuperación de los empleos perdidos se estancó. Adicionalmente, los aumentos en la inflación en buena medida están explicados por choques de oferta y de costos y por la disolución de algunos alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. Los pronósticos de crecimiento y de inflación descritos son coherentes con una brecha del producto que se cierra más rápido y es menos negativa en todo el horizonte de pronóstico con respecto al informe de abril. No obstante, la incertidumbre sobre los excesos de capacidad es muy alta y es un riesgo sobre el pronóstico. Las perspectivas de las cuentas fiscales de Colombia se deterioraron, Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings (S&P) y Fitch Ratings (Fitch) redujeron su calificación crediticia, los bloqueos y problemas de orden público afectaron el producto y el país enfrentó una nueva ola de contagios de Covid-19 más acentuada y prolongada que las pasadas. Todo lo anterior se ha reflejado en un aumento de las primas de riesgo y en una depreciación del peso frente al dólar. Esto ha ocurrido en un entorno favorable de ingresos externos. Los precios internacionales del petróleo, del café y de otros bienes básicos que exporta el país aumentaron y han contribuido a la recuperación de los términos de intercambio y del ingreso nacional, y han mitigado las presiones al alza sobre las primas de riesgo y la tasa de cambio. En el presente informe se incrementó el precio esperado del petróleo para 2021 a USD 68 por barril (antes USD 61 bl) y para 2022 a USD 66 bl (antes USD 60 bl). Esta mayor senda presenta una convergencia hacia precios menores que los observados recientemente, como resultado de una mayor oferta mundial esperada de petróleo, la cual más que compensaría el incremento en la demanda de este bien básico. Por ende, se supone que el aumento reciente de los precios tiene un carácter transitorio. En el escenario macroeconómico actual se espera que las condiciones financieras internacionales sean algo menos favorables, a pesar de la mejora en los ingresos externos por cuenta de una mayor demanda y unos precios del petróleo y de otros productos de exportación más altos. Frente al informe de abril el crecimiento de la demanda externa fue mejor que el esperado, y las proyecciones para 2021 y 2022 aumentaron del 5,2 % al 6,0 % y del 3,4 % al 3,5 %, respectivamente. En lo corrido del año las cifras de actividad económica muestran una demanda externa más dinámica de la esperada. En los Estados Unidos y China la recuperación del producto ha sido más rápida que la registrada en los países de la región. En estos últimos la reactivación económica ha estado limitada por los rebrotes del Covid-19, las limitaciones en la oferta de vacunas y el poco espacio fiscal para enfrentar la pandemia, entre otros factores. La buena dinámica en el comercio externo de bienes se ha dado en un entorno de deterioro en las cadenas de valor y de un aumento importante en los precios de las materias primas y en el costo de los fletes. En los Estados Unidos la inflación sorprendió al alza y su valor observado y esperado se mantiene por encima de la meta, al tiempo que se incrementó la proyección de crecimiento económico. Con esto, el inicio de la normalización de la política monetaria en ese país se daría antes de lo proyectado. En este informe se estima que el primer incremento en la tasa de interés de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos se dé a finales de 2022 (antes del primer trimestre de 2023). Para Colombia se supone una mayor prima de riesgo frente al informe de abril y se sigue esperando que presente una tendencia creciente, dada la acumulación de deuda pública y externa del país. Todo esto contribuiría a un incremento en el costo del financiamiento externo en el horizonte de pronóstico. La postura expansiva de la política monetaria sigue soportando unas condiciones financieras internas favorables. En el segundo trimestre la tasa de interés interbancaria y el índice bancario de referencia (IBR) se han mantenido acordes con la tasa de interés de política. Las tasas de interés promedio de captación y crédito continuaron históricamente bajas, a pesar de algunos incrementos observados a finales de junio. La cartera en moneda nacional detuvo su desaceleración anual y, entre marzo y junio, el crédito a los hogares se aceleró, principalmente para compra de vivienda. La recuperación de la cartera comercial y de los desembolsos a ese sector fue importante, y se alcanzó de nuevo el elevado saldo observado un año atrás, cuando las empresas requirieron niveles significativos de liquidez para enfrentar los efectos económicos de la pandemia. El riesgo de crédito aumentó, las provisiones se mantienes altas y algunos bancos han retirado de su balance una parte de su cartera vencida. No obstante, las utilidades del sistema financiero se han recuperado y sus niveles de liquidez y solvencia se mantienen por encima del mínimo regulatorio. A partir de este informe se implementará una nueva metodología para cuantificar y comunicar la incertidumbre que rodea los pronósticos del escenario macroeconómico central, en un entorno de política monetaria activa. Esta metodología se conoce como densidades predictivas (DP) y se explica en detalle en el Recuadro 1. Partiendo del balance de riesgos que contiene los principales factores que, de acuerdo con el juicio del equipo técnico, podrían afectar a la economía en el horizonte de pronóstico, la metodología DP produce distribuciones de probabilidad sobre el pronóstico de las principales variables (v. g.: crecimiento, inflación). Estas distribuciones reflejan el resultado de los posibles choques (a variables externas, precios y actividad económica) que podría recibir la economía y su transmisión, considerando la estructura económica y la respuesta de política monetaria en el futuro. En este sentido, permiten cuantificar la incertidumbre alrededor del pronóstico y su sesgo. El ejercicio DP muestra un sesgo a la baja en el crecimiento económico y en la brecha del producto, y al alza en la inflación. El balance de riesgos indica que las disyuntivas para la política monetaria serán potencialmente más complejas que lo contemplado en el pasado. Por el lado de las condiciones de financiamiento externo, se considera que el mayor riesgo es que se tornen un poco menos favorables, en un escenario en el cual la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos incremente con mayor prontitud su tasa de interés. Esto último, ante un crecimiento económico y del empleo mayor que el esperado en los Estados Unidos que genere presiones significativas sobre la inflación de ese país. A esto se suma la incertidumbre sobre el panorama fiscal en Colombia y sus efectos sobre la prima de riesgo y el costo del financiamiento externo. En el caso del crecimiento, la mayoría de los riesgos son a la baja, destacándose los efectos de la incertidumbre política y fiscal sobre las decisiones de consumo e inversión, la aparición de nuevas olas de contagio de la pandemia del Covid-19 y sus impactos sobre la actividad económica. En el caso de la inflación, se incorporó el riesgo de una mayor persistencia de los choques asociados con la disrupción de las cadenas de valor, mayores precios internacionales de las materias primas y de los alimentos, y una recuperación más lenta que la esperada de la cadena agrícola nacional afectada por los pasados bloqueos a las vías. Estos riesgos presionarían al alza principalmente los precios de los alimentos y de los bienes. Como principal riesgo a la baja se incluyó un alza de los arriendos menor que el esperado en el escenario central, explicada por una demanda débil y por una mayor oferta en 2022 dadas las altas ventas de vivienda observadas en el presente año. Con todo, el crecimiento económico presenta un sesgo a la baja y, con el 90 % de confianza, se encontraría entre un 6,1 % y 9,1 % para 2021 y entre el 0,5 % y 4,1 % para 2022. La brecha del producto tendría un sesgo a la baja, principalmente en 2022. El sesgo de la inflación es al alza, y se encontraría entre el 3,7 % y 4,9 % en 2021, y el 2,2 % y 4,7 % en 2022, con un 90 % de probabilidad. 1.2 Decisión de política monetaria En las reuniones de junio y julio la JDBR decidió mantener la tasa de política monetaria inalterada en 1,75 %.

El País Vasco ha construido de forma proactiva una estrategia territorial centrada en la industria a lo largo de varias décadas. Ahora se enfrenta al reto de construir sobre esta base para mantener y aumentar su competitividad inclusiva en el contexto de las transiciones demográfico-social; energético-ambiental; y tecnológico-digital. Este trabajo plantea que lo hace desde una base sólida pero que tendrá que reforzar su modelo de competitividad inclusiva adoptando una estrategia para la recuperación socio económica que incluya también la sostenibilidad medioambiental. Será necesario trabajar en aspectos clave de la estrategia relativos a la especialización económica y científico-tecnológica, las infraestructuras físicas, las capacidades de las personas y en intensificar la colaboración entre los actores del territorio, centrándose cada uno en la aportación de valor distintiva que podría desarrollar de cara a las transiciones. La estrategia compartida debe transitar de la triple hélice a la cuarta, reforzando el papel de los emprendedores y la sociedad civil, entre otros. Por último será necesario desarrollar una capacidad anticipatoria que permita desarrollar una estrategia innovadora a largo plazo que transcienda los ciclos electorales.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.