Relevant bibliographies by topics / Trade shocks

Academic literature on the topic 'Trade shocks'

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Published: 11 March 2023

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Journal articles on the topic "Trade shocks"

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Baek, Jeongho, and Hong-Youl Kim. "Analyzing the Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Trade Balance: New Evidence from Korea-China Trade." Korea International Trade Research Institute 18, no. 4 (August 31, 2022): 111–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.16980/jitc.18.4.202208.111.

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Purpose - The primary contribution of this paper is to investigate the impacts of oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks on three measures of South Korea’s trade balance oil, non-oil, and total trade balance with its top trading partner China. Design/Methodology/Approach - In order to investigate how trade balance is influenced by three types of oil price shocks, we used a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR). Also, Impulse Response Function (IRF) was used to calculate degree of the trade balance response to the oil price shock. Findings - We discover that aggregate demand shocks have the greatest impact on Korea’s trade balances, while oil supply shocks have negligible impacts. Additionally, the overall impact of the three oil shocks on Korea’s trade balances with China appears to rely on the response of the non-oil trade balance. Research Implications - This outcome explains why the roles of the different shock components of crude oil prices should be accounted for when modeling the nexus between oil price shocks and Korea’s balance of trade
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Lee, Sin Yee, Zulkefly Abdul Karim, Norlin Khalid, and Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi. "The Spillover Effects of Chinese Shocks on the Belt and Road Initiative Economies: New Evidence Using Panel Vector Autoregression." Mathematics 10, no. 14 (July 11, 2022): 2414. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math10142414.

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This paper investigates the spillover effects of Chinese real and monetary sector shocks on the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) economies. The study adopted a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) estimation technique to analyse the dynamic propagation of Chinese shocks in the real sector (gross domestic product (GDP) and trade openness (OPEN)) and monetary sector (nominal interest rate (NIR)) for a sample of 50 BRI countries from 2000 to 2017. The main results revealed that Chinese income shocks positively spill over to all macroeconomic variables except BRI countries’ consumer price index (CPI). However, the Chinese trade openness shock only has a temporary positive spillover to BRI international trade and a temporary negative spillover on its monetary policy. In addition, the Chinese monetary policy shock has a negative spillover on GDP and a positive spillover on CPI in BRI economies. Chinese shocks, however, do not constitute a significant source of variation in any interest variable. As explained by the Chinese income shock, the BRI interest rate is the highest percentage of variable variation accumulated over time. Further, the highest variation of Chinese trade shock is BRI trade openness, and lastly, the highest variation of Chinese interest rate shock is CPI in BRI economies. The beggar-thy-neighbour effect may dominate the positive trade effect and is a negative impact of the Chinese shocks. Hence, BRI economies should alleviate the adverse shocks since the upcoming rapid growth from the Chinese has disturbed the BRI economies. Our results reveal the importance of Chinese development on BRI partners’ economies and the significance of Chinese shocks in real and monetary sectors in assisting policymakers in designing international and monetary policy for BRI economies.
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Novy, Dennis, and Alan M. Taylor. "Trade and Uncertainty." Review of Economics and Statistics 102, no. 4 (October 2020): 749–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00885.

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We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the idea of uncertainty shocks with international trade. Firms order inputs from home and foreign suppliers. In response to an uncertainty shock firms disproportionately cut orders of foreign inputs due to higher fixed costs. In the aggregate, this leads to a bigger contraction in international trade flows than in domestic activity, a magnification effect. We confront the model with newly compiled US import and industrial production data. Our results help to explain the Great Trade Collapse of 2008–2009.
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O., Saibu M. "Sectoral Output Responses to Trade Openness, Oil Price and Policy Shocks in Nigeria: A CVAR Approach." Journal of Social and Development Sciences 1, no. 2 (March 15, 2011): 48–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jsds.v1i2.627.

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This study investigated the relative effectiveness of trade and policy shocks on sectoral output growth in a small open Nigerian economy. It is a country-specific, time series study verifies whether there is difference in the effect of sectoral output response to policy shocks in Nigeria. A CVAR model was specified to assess the effects of policy shocks on real aggregate and sectoral output measures. The model included oil price shock and an interactive term of trade openness as measures of supply and external shocks to the economy. The empirical results showed that there was remarkably difference in sectoral output responses to policy distortion. The effects of monetary policy shocks were positive and significant on manufacturing, service and industrial sector while fiscal policy shock was only significant and positive on agricultural output growth. The result further showed that international oil price shock and trade openness had pronounced negative effects on both sectoral and aggregate outputs. In addition, oil and trade openness’ negative effects overwhelmed the positive effects of fiscal and monetary policy shocks. The policy implication of the finding is that the effectiveness of domestic macroeconomic policy is constrained by the external shocks from both oil price and trade openness. Thus, confirming the open economic version of policy ineffectiveness proposition of the New classical macroeconomic in Nigeria
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Di Tella, Rafael, and Dani Rodrik. "Labour Market Shocks and the Demand for Trade Protection: Evidence from Online Surveys." Economic Journal 130, no. 628 (January 22, 2020): 1008–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa006.

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Abstract We study preferences for government action in response to layoffs resulting from different types of labour-market shocks. We consider: technological change, a demand shift, bad management and three kinds of international outsourcing. Support for government intervention rises sharply in response to shocks and is heavily biased towards trade protection. Trade shocks generate more demand for protectionism and, among trade shocks, outsourcing to a developing country elicits greater demand for protectionism. The ‘bad management’ shock is the only scenario that induces a desired increase in compensatory transfers. Trump supporters are more protectionist than Clinton supporters, but preferences seem easy to manipulate: Clinton supporters primed with trade shocks are as protectionist as baseline Trump voters. Highlighting labour abuses in the exporting country increases the demand for trade protection by Clinton supporters but not Trump supporters.
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Raghavan, Mala, and Evelyn S. Devadason. "How Resilient Is ASEAN-5 to Trade Shocks? A Comparison of Regional and Global Shocks." Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 12, no. 1 (January 2020): 93–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0974910120906239.

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This article studies the resilience of the ASEAN region to external shocks amid the unfolding effects of the USA–China trade war. It investigates and compares the effects of regional (ASEAN) and global (USA, China) shocks on ASEAN-5 using a Structural VAR (SVAR) framework. To identify the propagation of economic shocks and spillovers on ASEAN-5, the changing trade links between the economies considered are used to account for time variations spanning the period 1978Q1–2018Q2. Three major results follow from the analyses on trade links and output multiplier effects. First, the response of ASEAN-5 to shocks from the USA and China were more pronounced than regional shocks for the period after the Asian financial crisis. Second, the increasing cumulative impact of China’s shock on ASEAN was congruous to the growing trade links and trade intensities between ASEAN and China. Third, the USA and China were dominant growth drivers for the weaker trade-linked ASEAN partners. Taken together, the results suggest that global shocks matter for the region, and the economic resilience of the region to global shocks depends on indirect effects apart from the direct trade links.
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Dix-Carneiro, Rafael, João Paulo Pessoa, Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, and Sharon Traiberman. "Globalization, Trade Imbalances and Labor Market Adjustment." International Finance Discussion Paper 2021, no. 1310 (February 10, 2021): 1–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/ifdp.2021.1310.

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We study the role of global trade imbalances in shaping the adjustment dynamics in response to trade shocks. We build and estimate a general equilibrium, multi-country, multi-sector model of trade with two key ingredients: (a) Consumption-saving decisions in each country commanded by representative households, leading to endogenous trade imbalances; (b) labor market frictions across and within sectors, leading to unemployment dynamics and sluggish transitions to shocks. We use the estimated model to study the behavior of labor markets in response to globalization shocks, including shocks to technology, trade costs, and inter-temporal preferences (savings gluts). We find that modeling trade imbalances changes both qualitatively and quantitatively the short- and long-run implications of globalization shocks for labor reallocation and unemployment dynamics. In a series of empirical applications, we study the labor market effects of shocks accrued to the global economy, their implications for the gains from trade, and we revisit the "China Shock" through the lens of our model. We show that the US enjoys a 2.2 percent gain in response to globalization shocks. These gains would have been 73 percent larger in the absence of the global savings glut, but they would have been 40 percent smaller in a balanced-trade world.
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Ferguson, Shon M., and Johan Gars. "Measuring the impact of agricultural production shocks on international trade flows." European Review of Agricultural Economics 47, no. 3 (April 26, 2019): 1094–132. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbz013.

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Abstract The purpose of this study is to measure the sensitivity of traded quantities and trade unit values to agricultural production shocks. We develop a general equilibrium model of trade in which production shocks in exporting countries affect both traded quantities and trade unit values. The model includes per-unit trade costs and develops a methodology to quantify their size exploiting the trade unit value data. Using bilateral trade flow data for a large sample of countries and agricultural commodities, we find that the intensive margin of trade is relatively inelastic to production shocks, with a 1 per cent increase in production leading to a 0.5 per cent increase in exports. We also find that per-unit trade costs are large, comprising 15–20 per cent of import unit values on average. Overall, our results suggest that there is room for improving trade as a mechanism for coping with food production volatility.
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Szomolányi, Karol, Martin Lukáčik, and Adriana Lukáčiková. "Impact of Terms-of-Trade on Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Croatia in the Short Run." Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy 63, no. 1 (March 1, 2017): 3–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/ngoe-2017-0001.

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AbstractThe terms-of-trade shocks are not main source of business cycles in three post-communist countries (i.e., Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Croatia). The zero or negative reactions of the trade balance in terms-of-trade positive shocks in the countries exhibit the Obstfeld-Svensson-Razin effect, according to which the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler positive effect on terms-of-trade indicates that the smaller the trade balance, the more persistent the terms-of-trade shock is. The conclusions come from the structural vector autoregressive analysis of the cyclical components of terms-of-trade, trade balance, output, consumption, and investment in three post-communist countries.
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Caselli, Francesco, Miklós Koren, Milan Lisicky, and Silvana Tenreyro. "Diversification Through Trade*." Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, no. 1 (September 19, 2019): 449–502. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz028.

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Abstract A widely held view is that openness to international trade leads to higher income volatility, as trade increases specialization and hence exposure to sector-specific shocks. Contrary to this common wisdom, we argue that when country-wide shocks are important, openness to international trade can lower income volatility by reducing exposure to domestic shocks and allowing countries to diversify the sources of demand and supply across countries. Using a quantitative model of trade, we assess the importance of the two mechanisms (sectoral specialization and cross-country diversification) and show that in recent decades international trade has reduced economic volatility for most countries.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Trade shocks"

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Vivoli, Arianna. "Trade shocks and economic development Three essays on the effects of international trade shocks on labour market outcomes and firm performances." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Trento, 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/11572/350519.

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This thesis analyses the impact of three different trade shocks on labour market outcomes and firms’ performance. The first chapter evaluates the impact of an increase in import competition on employment, gender employment gap and structural transformation in Ethiopia over the 1994-2013 period. In the second chapter, the objective is to investigate the changes in the Egyptian trade policies on wages and job stability, with a panel dataset covering a 20 years period (1998-2018); the last chapter examines the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic on firms with different modes of internationalization, in terms of changes in sales and in business strategies. By exploiting three different very rich micro-level datasets, we study trade shocks under three different perspectives: a worker-level perspective, a firm-level perspective and a local labour market perspective. What emerges is that the impact of trade shocks is ultimately an empirical question, and that the direction of results greatly depends on the economic context under analysis. When trade liberalization is implemented in countries whose structural transformation process is still at an early stage, as in the Ethiopian case, this can harm rather than benefit their economies. On the other hand, the evidence in the third chapter suggests that being interconnected in the international market can help firms mitigating the shock, not only when the shock is domestic or idiosyncratic, but also, as in the case of Covid-19, when the it affects the whole global economy.
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Dahan, Victor Barbosa. "Does trade credit respond to negative shocks to customer firms?" reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/22980.

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We investigate how the provision of trade credit by suppliers reacts when their customer firms suffer an adverse shock. We exploit an exogenous adverse shock to firms in the Brazilian food industry caused by the public announcement of a fraud investigation named Operation Weak Flesh. Using a within-firm differences-in-differences identification strategy, we found that customers suffered a negative impact of around 20 to 30% in their accounts payable, while suppliers reduced their credit provision by around 5 to 6%. The evidence suggests that suppliers would rather shield themselves against increased risks in the supply chain than try to save their customers and their relationship with them.
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Lombardo, Giovanni. "Monopolistics distortion and the real effects of monetary shocks." Thesis, University of York, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.323504.

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OLIVEIRA, SARA BROLHATO DE. "FIRM DYNAMICS IN BRAZIL: TRADE SHOCKS, RESOURCE MISALLOCATION AND LIFE CYCLE GROWTH." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2018. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=36197@1.

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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO
COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR
CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO
FUNDAÇÃO DE APOIO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DO RIO DE JANEIRO
PROGRAMA DE SUPORTE À PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO DE INSTS. DE ENSINO
BOLSA NOTA 10
Esta tese contém três ensaios sobre dinâmica de firmas. O primeiro ensaio avalia os efeitos de choques de oferta e demanda sobre a dinâmica de firmas e seleção no Brasil. Exploramos o fato de que o crescimento recente da China não apenas aumentou o nível de competição via importações, mas também aumentou a demanda por exportações de bens primários, um fator especialmente relevante para países em desenvolvimento. Nossos resultados mostram que firmas afetadas pelo aumento de competição proveniente de importações chinesas apresentam um aumento na probabilidade de sair do mercado, enquanto firmas em indústrias beneficiadas pela demanda por exportações para a China têm uma menor probabilidade de saída. Em ambos os casos, esses efeitos estão concentrados em firmas com um menor número de trabalhadores. O segundo ensaio descreve a relação entre a má alocação de energia e a má alocação de recursos no setor de manufaturas brasileiro, e quantifica em que medida distorções que afetam o uso eficiente de energia resultam em perdas de produto agregado. Nós encontramos que as duas medidas de má alocação são positivamente relacionadas nos setores, sugerindo que a energia é um importante componente da eficiência alocativa de recursos. Nós mostramos que a realocação de recursos entre firmas de um mesmo setor levaria a ganhos agregados significativos. Entretanto, distorções de capital são responsáveis pela maior parte dos ganhos potenciais pela realocação de recursos. O terceiro ensaio compara a dinâmica do ciclo de vida em manufaturas e serviços e encontra que o crescimento ao longo do ciclo de vida é menor para firmas do setor de serviços, mesmo controlando pelo seu tamanho inicial. Nós mostramos que esse menor crescimento ocorre devido ao padrão de seleção e à fraca relação existente entre produtividade e tamanho das firmas em serviços. Finalmente, nós investigamos o papel de duas possíveis explicações para os resultados encontrados: distorções relacionadas ao ciclo de vida e custos de monitoramento.
This thesis consists of three essays on firm dynamics. The first essay evaluates the effects of supply and demand shocks on firm dynamics and selection in Brazil. We explore the fact that China’s recent growth has led not only to an increase in import competition, but also to higher export demand for commodities, which is especially relevant in developing countries. We find that firms facing greater competition from Chinese imports suffer from an increase in exit probability, while firms in industries benefiting from increased export demand have lower probability of exit. In both cases, these effects are concentrated among smaller firms. In the second article, we describe the relationship between energy misallocation and resource misallocation across manufacturing industries in Brazil, and quantify the extent to which distortions affecting energy use result in output losses at the aggregate level. We find that these two measures of misallocation are positively related across industries, which suggests that energy is an important component of resource allocation efficiency. We show that reallocating resources between firms would result in substantial aggregate output gains. However, capital distortions account for most of the potential gains in manufacturing from reallocating resources between firms. The third essay compares firm life cycle dynamics in manufacturing and services, and finds that life-cycle growth is slower for service firms, even when controlling for initial size. We show that this result arises because of the selection pattern and weaker relationship between productivity and size in service industries. Finally, we assess the role of two potential explanations for these results: age-related distortions and monitoring costs.
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Ahmed, Saira. "Essays in trade, taxation and external shocks in a small open economy." Thesis, IMT Alti Studi Lucca, 2010. http://e-theses.imtlucca.it/52/1/Saira_Ahmed_phdthesis.pdf.

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This paper aims to looks at the impact of food and financial crisis in Pakistan. We use a linked computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model to study the decline in exports, rise in import price of food and increase in remittances during the crises period. Our results reveal that the decline in exports was particularly harsh for the high income earners however led to an increased availability of food supply domestically which ultimately increased food consumption. On the contrary, import price of food led to a general increase in prices across the board, which drastically deteriorated the consumption and nutritional status of the poor. The persistent increase in remittances during the times of high food inflation provided some relief with poverty increasing less than half of what it would have been otherwise. The paper also discusses the policy response required in order to cushion the impact of future crises.
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Tsheko, B. O. "Analysing the impact of international trade policy shocks on the economy of Botswana." Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.493364.

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Liu, Xinman. "Trade linkages and growth in South Africa: an SVAR analysis." Master's thesis, Faculty of Commerce, 2019. https://hdl.handle.net/11427/31614.

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This paper investigates the vulnerability of South Africa to the shocks that originate from its major trading partners over time using a structural vector autoregressive framework. We examine the impact of shocks emanating from the EU, the US, China, Japan, India and Brazil on South Africa’s output growth through both direct and indirect trade linkages, by considering the changing trade patterns from 1996 to 2017. The results suggest that the South African economy has become more integrated with emerging economies. Furthermore, China has increased its impact on the output growth of the other sample economies through trade linkages, which implies that developments in China are of increasing importance to other economies. The US and the EU are still dominated in propagating shocks despite their declining impact on the output growth of other economies in this sample.
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Mendis, Chandima. "Monetary consequences of terms of trade shocks and capital flows in small open economics." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.365576.

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Hove, Seedwell. "Essays on monetary policy, institutions and terms of trade shocks in emerging market economies." Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/11544.

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This thesis focuses on two important features of emerging market economies: institutional weaknesses and the exposure to commodity terms of trade shocks and how they shape the macroeconomic dynamics and the conduct of monetary policy. These issues are discussed in three essays. The first essay empirically evaluates the role of institutional structures in inflation targeting in emerging market economies (EMEs). The second essay theoretically investigates the appropriate monetary policy responses to commodity terms of trade shocks using a multi-sector New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Finally, the third essay empirically analyses the responses of different monetary policy regimes to commodity terms of trade shocks in emerging market economies.
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De, Waal Annari, and Waal Annari De. "The impact of global economic shocks on South Africa amid time-varying trade linkages." Thesis, University of Pretoria, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/40261.

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Trade of South Africa with the rest of the world has changed substantially since the mid-1990s. The United States (US), which used to be the main trading partner of South Africa, is now only the third largest trading partner of the country. South African trade with Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom (UK) are also lower. The key reason is the emergence of China in the world economy. South Africa did not trade with China before 1993, but from 2009 China became the main trading partner of the country. Globalisation and China’s emergence have influenced the trade linkages of many other countries in the world. To incorporate the changes in global trade linkages, the foreign variables of all the models in the study are compiled with trade-weighted three-year moving average data. The foremost objective of the thesis is to determine how the changes in trade linkages affect the transmission of economic shocks originating in the rest of the world on South Africa. The global vector autoregression (GVAR) approach is used since one of its advantages is the incorporation of global trade linkages, which facilitates the analysis of the transmission of shocks from one country to another. As a GVAR model combines many individual country models, the study first estimates such a country-specific model for South Africa to determine whether it displays the expected impact of domestic shocks on the economy. This type of model is known as a vector error correction model (VECM) with domestic variables and weakly exogenous (X) foreign (*) variables, denoted by VECX*. The results from the VECX* for South Africa are in line with expectations, showing the effective transmission of monetary policy. The study then examines the impact of international shocks on the South African economy with a GVAR model. The GVAR, which incorporates country-specific VECX* models for 33 countries, is solved for all 33 countries using global trade weight matrices at different dates. The results indicate that over time South Africa is much more vulnerable to GDP shocks to the Chinese economy, and less vulnerable to GDP shocks to the US economy. These trends are however not confined to South Africa, and as such highlights the increased risk to the South African economy and many other economies, should China experience slower GDP growth. Finally, the thesis determines whether the forecasting performance of GVAR models is superior to that of a country-specific VECX* model. The study compares the out-of-sample forecasts of two key South African variables (real GDP and inflation) for five types of models: a VECX*, a customised small GVAR for South Africa, the more general 33-country GVAR, simple autoregressive models and random walk models. Better forecasts of both the GVAR models compared to the VECX* model at forecast horizons of more than four quarters show that, despite the complicated nature of the GVAR model with the inclusion of many countries and global trade linkages, the additional information is useful for forecasting domestic variables
Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2013.
gm2014
Economics
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Books on the topic "Trade shocks"

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Paul, Collier, and Gunning Jan, eds. Trade shocks in developing countries. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999.

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Kehoe, Timothy Jerome. Are shocks to the terms of trade shocks to productivity? Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2007.

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Cameron, Stephen. Trade shocks and labor adjustment: Theory. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2007.

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Cameron, Stephen V. Trade shocks and labor adjustment: Theory. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2007.

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Leger, Lawrence A. Trade shocks and the UK poll tax. Loughborough, Leics: Department of Economics, Loughborough Universi ty of Technology, 1991.

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Erceg, Christopher J. Expansionary fiscal shocks and the trade deficit. Washington, D.C: Federal Reserve Board, 2005.

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Andersen, Torben M. Persistent terms of trade effects of nominal shocks. Amsterdam: De Nederlandsche Bank NV, 1999.

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Gaisford, James D. Trade shocks, congested adjustment and anti-surge measurements. Loughborough: Loughborough University, Department of Economics, 1998.

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Cashin, Paul. Terms of trade shocks and the current account. [Washington, D.C.]: International Monetary Fund, Research Department, 1998.

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Artuç, Erhan. Trade shocks and labor adjustment: A structural empirical approach. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2007.

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Book chapters on the topic "Trade shocks"

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Raghavan, Mala, Faisal Khan, and Evelyn S. Devadason. "Trade Shocks and Resiliency." In China and ASEAN: Pivoting Trade and Shock Transmission, 23–61. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-1618-1_3.

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Taghawi-Nejad, Davoud. "Technology Shocks and Trade in a Network." In Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 101–12. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-13947-5_9.

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Söderström, Hans Tson. "Union Militancy, External Shocks and the Accommodation Dilemma." In Trade Unions, Wage Formation and Macroeconomic Stability, 193–209. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-08596-5_12.

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Mokhtarzadeh, Fatemeh. "A global vector autoregression model for softwood lumber trade." In International trade in forest products: lumber trade disputes, models and examples, 174–93. Wallingford: CABI, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781789248234.0174.

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Abstract A novel econometric approach is developed in this chapter, namely, the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model. It provides a comprehensive framework for analyzing the country-level impacts of various domestic, foreign, and/or global shocks on softwood lumber trade. The GVAR approach is applied to Canada-U.S. trade in softwood lumber and used to analyze the effect of external shocks on Canadian lumber prices. Findings indicate that Canada's export prices are positively correlated to U.S. housing starts and real GDP. Further, using impulse response functions, it is used to examine the effects on regional lumber export prices in Canada of: (1) a change in U.S. housing starts; (2) a reduction in U.S. GDP by one standard deviation; (3) a COVID-19 induced decline in U.S. GDP (of three standard deviations); (4) an increase in global oil prices; and, in the Appendix, (5) an increase in the long-term interest rate. Price impacts vary a great deal by Canadian region depending on the type of shock, with the propagation mechanism in Alberta significantly different from that in other regions. For example, with an oil price shock and because Alberta is a major exporter of oil, the lumber export price remains high even as the shock dissipates over time.
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Mokhtarzadeh, Fatemeh. "A global vector autoregression model for softwood lumber trade." In International trade in forest products: lumber trade disputes, models and examples, 174–93. Wallingford: CABI, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781789248234.0008.

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Abstract A novel econometric approach is developed in this chapter, namely, the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model. It provides a comprehensive framework for analyzing the country-level impacts of various domestic, foreign, and/or global shocks on softwood lumber trade. The GVAR approach is applied to Canada-U.S. trade in softwood lumber and used to analyze the effect of external shocks on Canadian lumber prices. Findings indicate that Canada's export prices are positively correlated to U.S. housing starts and real GDP. Further, using impulse response functions, it is used to examine the effects on regional lumber export prices in Canada of: (1) a change in U.S. housing starts; (2) a reduction in U.S. GDP by one standard deviation; (3) a COVID-19 induced decline in U.S. GDP (of three standard deviations); (4) an increase in global oil prices; and, in the Appendix, (5) an increase in the long-term interest rate. Price impacts vary a great deal by Canadian region depending on the type of shock, with the propagation mechanism in Alberta significantly different from that in other regions. For example, with an oil price shock and because Alberta is a major exporter of oil, the lumber export price remains high even as the shock dissipates over time.
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Geda, Alemayehu. "The Effect on Africa of External Shocks Generated in Developed Countries." In Finance and Trade in Africa, 292–323. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230502543_7.

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Gumata, Nombulelo, and Eliphas Ndou. "Income Tax Shocks and the Inflation-Output Volatility Trade-Offs." In Labour Market and Fiscal Policy Adjustments to Shocks, 421–32. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-66520-7_29.

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Gumata, Nombulelo, and Eliphas Ndou. "Trade-Openness, Consumer Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Depreciation Shocks." In Capital Flows, Credit Markets and Growth in South Africa, 69–85. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30888-9_4.

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Ndou, Eliphas, and Thabo Mokoena. "Do Positive Bank Concentration Shocks Impact Employment in South Africa?" In Inequality, Output-Inflation Trade-Off and Economic Policy Uncertainty, 281–90. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19803-9_18.

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De Bruyne, Guido, and Edmund Phelps. "Comment on H. Tson Söderström,“Union Militancy, External Shocks and the Accommodation Dilemma”." In Trade Unions, Wage Formation and Macroeconomic Stability, 210–14. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-08596-5_13.

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Conference papers on the topic "Trade shocks"

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Algan, Neşe, Harun Bal, and Koray Yıldırım. "Foreign Trade and Hysteresis Effect: An Essay on Foreign Trade Flows in the Turkish Economy." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c14.02634.

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There is a wide literature that temporary shocks in real exchange rates and volatility will cause structural breaks in foreign trade. As a result of temporary shocks in real exchange rates, the real exchange rate elasticity of imports decreases. The decrease in the sensitivity of the import volume to real exchange rates and the failure to return to its former levels after the temporary shock is expressed as the hysteresis situation. In case the exchange rates return to their previous levels after the temporary shock, the main dynamic of hysteresis is that the firms exhibit the behavior of staying in the market due to sunk costs. In the study, foreign trade flows in the Turkish economy were analyzed for the period 2003Q1-2021Q2 by using the asymmetry hypothesis in order to test the hysteresis effects. According to the findings obtained from the asymmetry hypothesis, the absence of a decrease in the import volume during the period of depreciation of the domestic currency indicates the existence of the hysteresis effect. The fact that the firms exhibited the behavior of staying in the market in exchange rate depreciation in the Turkish economy means that sunk costs are extremely effective in hysteresis. Based on this information, as a solution to the hysteresis effects in foreign trade flows in the Turkish economy at the point of policymaking, reducing the sunk costs in market entry to reasonable levels and ensuring stability in exchange rates come to the fore as suggestions in terms of hysteresis.
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Strojny, Jacek. "The impact of terms of trade shocks on Baltic countries’ agricultural industry." In 20th International Scientific Conference "Economic Science for Rural Development 2019". Latvia University of Life Sciences and Technologies. Faculty of Economics and Social Development, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.22616/esrd.2019.049.

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"Trade strategies to mitigate the global impact of regional wheat production shocks." In 24th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2021.b5.golding.

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Aşık, Bekir. "The Effects of Structural Shocks on Turkish Economy." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c05.01165.

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This paper investigates the role of the real business cycle dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with different shocks for a small open economy. The main goal of this study is to compare the effects of different structural shocks on the macroeconomic fluctuations of Turkey. Different types of shocks are employed, such as temporary shocks, trend growth shocks, and world interest rate shock as driving forces. In addition to investigating the effects of different shocks, we consider the effects of working capital requirements and spread as friction. Variance decompositions are computed to assess the role of shocks in macroeconomic fluctuations. I fit the model to the data using Bayesian techniques to determine which shock has the most impact on the business cycles of Turkish economy over the period from the first quarter of 1988 to the last quarter of 2012. The main findings are: (1) output, consumption, and investment growth are mostly driven by the trend growth shocks and temporary shocks are less important. (2) Trade balance growth are driven by world interest rate shocks. (3) Real business model is not successful to replicate the some of the key features of economic fluctuations.
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Lu, Yaxian, and Jin Shuang. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Shocks on Prices of China - ASEAN Free Trade Area." In 4th International Symposium on Business Corporation and Development in South-East and South Asia under B&R Initiative (ISBCD 2019). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.200708.067.

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Al-Malk, Afnan, Jean-Francois Maystadt, and Maurizio Zanardi. "The Gravity of Distance: Evidence from a Trade Embargo." In Qatar University Annual Research Forum & Exhibition. Qatar University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.29117/quarfe.2021.0171.

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On June 5, 2017, an airspace blockade was imposed on the State of Qatar by four of its neighbors: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Egypt. We study the exogenous increase in air transportation costs with non-blockading countries to examine the effect of increased travel distance on bilateral trade. Based on a gravity model estimated with a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood, we find a distance elasticity of trade between -0.3 and -0.5. Our findings revise downwards cross-sectional estimates of the distance elasticity of trade and confirm more recent estimates exploiting similar time-varying shocks to distance.
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Khachaturian, Raisa. "SUPPLY-DEMAND SHOCKS AND GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TO PANDEMIC ISSUES (EXAMPLE OF GEORGIA)." In Proceedings of the XXIII International Scientific and Practical Conference. RS Global Sp. z O.O., 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.31435/rsglobal_conf/25112020/7240.

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In this article, it is discussed the main threats and consequences of the cause of the modern economic crisis - the coronavirus pandemic - that have affected the macroeconomic situation in different countries and regions of the world. The focus is on the radical international economic changes that have caused supply and demand shocks, which have conditioned the structural nature of the crisis. The negative consequences of the pandemic in different sectors of the world are analyzed and general tendencies related to foreign trade, protectionism, employment, fiscal, monetary and other policies are listed. It describes the anti-crisis economic plan developed by the Georgian government and provides examples related to corporate tax shelters. Finally, the conclusion stresses that the priority of the post-crisis economic plan should be to position the country well after the end of the pandemic, as well as to overcome macroeconomic problems such as current account deficits, public debt, unemployment and poverty, rapid economic growth, competitiveness and etc.
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Jalil Alghaliby, Abdulhussein. "Monetary Reform and Change the Foreign Exchange Rate Against the Iraqi Dinar (Analytical Study of Economic Shocks, Trade and Foreign Reserves)." In 11th International Conference of Economic and Administrative Reform: Necessities and Challenges. University of Human Development, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21928/uhdicearnc/22.

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Taking a quick look at Iraqi trade, we find that it was characterized by the concentration of exports on oil, and the high percentage of its contribution to the gross domestic product. Iraqi trade with Turkey and Iran were studied as a sample of Iraq's trading partners, after 2003. The value of imports from Turkey increased and the Iraqi market's ranking in the scale of absorbing Turkish exports moved from rank (9) in 2004 to rank (2) in 2013. This was accompanied by the depreciation of the Turkish Lira. While trade with Iran in 2018 accounted for (14.5%) of the total Iraqi imports and amounted to (6.1%) of the total Iranian exports, the value of the Iranian Riyal witnessed a significant decline, and the depreciation of the Turkish Lira and the Iranian Riyal coincided with the increase in the value of the Dinar, which supported the competitiveness of their goods In the Iraqi market, at the expense of the local product, the commercial conflict between them became most intense in the Iraqi arena for control of this market. As for the position of the accumulation of foreign reserves and the foreign exchange rate against the Dinar, the ratios of accumulation of reserves were in a decline during the studied period that was divided into three periods, The decision to change the exchange rate came at the end of 2020, and it is a correct decision, albeit late in time and large in proportion. Accordingly, it is necessary to maintain the new exchange rate and not to retreat from it, as it will entail many problems.
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Jalil Alghaliby, Abdulhussein. "Monetary Reform and Change the Foreign Exchange Rate Against the Iraqi Dinar (Analytical Study of Economic Shocks, Trade and Foreign Reserves)." In 11th International Conference of Economic and Administrative Reform: Necessities and Challenges. University of Human Development, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21928/icearnc/22.

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Taking a quick look at Iraqi trade, we find that it was characterized by the concentration of exports on oil, and the high percentage of its contribution to the gross domestic product. Iraqi trade with Turkey and Iran were studied as a sample of Iraq's trading partners, after 2003. The value of imports from Turkey increased and the Iraqi market's ranking in the scale of absorbing Turkish exports moved from rank (9) in 2004 to rank (2) in 2013. This was accompanied by the depreciation of the Turkish Lira. While trade with Iran in 2018 accounted for (14.5%) of the total Iraqi imports and amounted to (6.1%) of the total Iranian exports, the value of the Iranian Riyal witnessed a significant decline, and the depreciation of the Turkish Lira and the Iranian Riyal coincided with the increase in the value of the Dinar, which supported the competitiveness of their goods In the Iraqi market, at the expense of the local product, the commercial conflict between them became most intense in the Iraqi arena for control of this market. As for the position of the accumulation of foreign reserves and the foreign exchange rate against the Dinar, the ratios of accumulation of reserves were in a decline during the studied period that was divided into three periods, The decision to change the exchange rate came at the end of 2020, and it is a correct decision, albeit late in time and large in proportion. Accordingly, it is necessary to maintain the new exchange rate and not to retreat from it, as it will entail many problems.
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Beder, Burak, and Sunay Çıralı. "The Relationship of Renewable Energy with Foreign Trade Balance and The Economic Growth: An Analysis in the Context of Turkey and The European Union." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c14.02680.

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Historically, most of the energy need is provided by carbon-intensive primary energy sources. Especially, since the 1970s, this circumstance has exposed two major issues. Firstly, primary energy sources are one of the most significant contributors to climate change since they significantly increase greenhouse gas emissions. Secondly, the fact that primary energy sources are non-renewable, and their limited reserves have recently caused unexpected price movements in energy prices. This situation creates conditions that cause crises, jeopardizes the security of energy supply, and threatens production and social living. In this context, the increased awareness of climate change and the energy shocks experienced put renewable energy sources instead of primary energy sources on the agenda. Renewable energy sources are particularly substantial for Turkey and the European Union (EU). Because Turkey and the EU meet most of their energy needs through imports. By being directly affected by rapid fluctuations in the pricing of energy resources, this circumstance can cause countries to experience issues such as foreign trade imbalance, energy supply security, inflation, and economic slowdown. In this scenario, it is crucial for Turkey and the EU to adopt renewable energy sources to continue economic growth. The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between the installed renewable energy power capacity of electricity generation with foreign trade balance and the economic growth of Turkey and EU countries from 2000 to 2020. In this context, it is intended to conduct a Panel Granger Causality test using data gathered from the IRENA and World Bank databases.
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Reports on the topic "Trade shocks"

1

Kehoe, Timothy, and Kim Ruhl. Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity? Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, May 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w13111.

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Cameron, Stephen, Shubham Chaudhuri, and John McLaren. Trade Shocks and Labor Adjustment: Theory. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w13463.

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Kaminsky, Graciela. Terms of Trade Shocks and Fiscal Cycles. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, February 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w15780.

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Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie, and Martín Uribe. How Important Are Terms Of Trade Shocks? Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, June 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w21253.

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Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, Mauricio Ulate, and José Vásquez. New-Keynesian Trade: Understanding the Employment and Welfare Effects of Trade Shocks. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w27905.

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Baldwin, Richard, and Paul Krugman. Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchage Rate Shocks. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, September 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w2017.

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Waugh, Michael. The Consumption Response to Trade Shocks: Evidence from the US-China Trade War. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w26353.

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Eriksson, Katherine, Katheryn Russ, Jay Shambaugh, and Minfei Xu. Trade Shocks and the Shifting Landscape of U.S. Manufacturing. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, March 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w25646.

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Artuc, Erhan, Shubham Chaudhuri, and John McLaren. Trade Shocks and Labor Adjustment: A Structural Empirical Approach. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w13465.

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Dippel, Christian, Robert Gold, and Stephan Heblich. Globalization and Its (Dis-)Content: Trade Shocks and Voting Behavior. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, December 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w21812.

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