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Viaro, Arthur Augusto. "The impact of trade shock exposure on child labor and schooling in Brazil." Universidade de São Paulo, 2017. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12138/tde-26092017-101518/.
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Child labor is still a relevant problem in developing countries and understanding the way that households respond in terms of children\'s time allocation to labor market incentives has relevant policy implications. In this paper, I explore a plausibly exogenous trade-induced labor market shock to assess how changes in returns to work affect children\'s time allocation in Brazil. To provide a good proxy for distinctly exogenous changes to the returns to adult labor as well as returns to the child labor I propose a strategy that distinguish between employment shocks that differentially affect adults and children. The results suggest an asymmetric impact on household decisions about children\'s time allocation that depend upon the source of the shock. First, larger import competition shocks concentrated on adult workers decrease the share of children that attend school, while an adverse shock concentrated on child workers has a positive effect on schooling, but the estimates are not statistically significant. On the other hand, both shocks decrease the share of working children. However, shocks on adults increase idleness, while shocks on children increase full-time schooling. I provide evidence that poverty and employment composition pattern are two possible mechanisms behind the results. I also find that adverse shocks on children have positive effects on math scores in a standardized national exam (Saeb) and stronger effects for children living in rural areas.Trabalho infantil ainda é um problema relevante nos países em desenvolvimento e entender o modo como as famílias respondem a incentivos no mercado de trabalho decidindo como alocar o tempo das crianças tem importantes implicações em termos de política. Neste trabalho, eu exploro um choque plausivelmente exógeno sobre o mercado de trabalho causado pelo comércio internacional para avaliar como mudanças no retorno do trabalho afetam a alocação de tempo das crianças no Brasil. Para medir mudanças exógenas sobre os retornos do trabalho adulto e infantil, eu proponho uma estratégia que distingue entre choques no emprego que afetam diferentemente adultos e crianças. Os resultados sugerem um efeito assimétrico sobre as decisões das famílias com relação à alocação de tempo das crianças a depender da fonte do choque. Primeiramente, choques de importação sobre os trabalhadores adultos diminuem a proporção de crianças na escola, enquanto choques adversos sobre as crianças que trabalham têm um efeito positivo sobre a escolaridade, mas as estimativas não são estatisticamente significantes. Por outro lado, ambos os choques diminuem a proporção de crianças trabalhando. Entretanto, choques sobre os adultos aumentam a ociosidade, enquanto choques sobre as crianças aumentam a dedicação exclusiva aos estudos. Eu forneço evidências de que a pobreza e a composição do emprego são dois possíveis mecanismos por trás dos resultados. Eu encontro ainda que choques adversos nas crianças possuem efeitos positivos sobre a proficiência em matemática no exame nacional de avaliação do ensino básico (Saeb) e que os efeitos são mais fortes em crianças que moram nas áreas rurais
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Dahan, Victor Barbosa. "Does trade credit respond to negative shocks to customer firms?" reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/22980.
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We investigate how the provision of trade credit by suppliers reacts when their customer firms suffer an adverse shock. We exploit an exogenous adverse shock to firms in the Brazilian food industry caused by the public announcement of a fraud investigation named Operation Weak Flesh. Using a within-firm differences-in-differences identification strategy, we found that customers suffered a negative impact of around 20 to 30% in their accounts payable, while suppliers reduced their credit provision by around 5 to 6%. The evidence suggests that suppliers would rather shield themselves against increased risks in the supply chain than try to save their customers and their relationship with them.
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Taylor, Paul. "Responding to the shock of the new : trade, technology, and the changing production axis in film, television, and new media /." Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 1998. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/6202.
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Choe, Kwang Yoon. "Differential impacts of oil price shock on small vs. large firms as a source of real effect on the economy /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 2002. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p3060091.
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OLIVEIRA, SARA BROLHATO DE. "FIRM DYNAMICS IN BRAZIL: TRADE SHOCKS, RESOURCE MISALLOCATION AND LIFE CYCLE GROWTH." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2018. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=36197@1.
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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIROCOORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR
CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO
FUNDAÇÃO DE APOIO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DO RIO DE JANEIRO
PROGRAMA DE SUPORTE À PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO DE INSTS. DE ENSINO
BOLSA NOTA 10
Esta tese contém três ensaios sobre dinâmica de firmas. O primeiro ensaio avalia os efeitos de choques de oferta e demanda sobre a dinâmica de firmas e seleção no Brasil. Exploramos o fato de que o crescimento recente da China não apenas aumentou o nível de competição via importações, mas também aumentou a demanda por exportações de bens primários, um fator especialmente relevante para países em desenvolvimento. Nossos resultados mostram que firmas afetadas pelo aumento de competição proveniente de importações chinesas apresentam um aumento na probabilidade de sair do mercado, enquanto firmas em indústrias beneficiadas pela demanda por exportações para a China têm uma menor probabilidade de saída. Em ambos os casos, esses efeitos estão concentrados em firmas com um menor número de trabalhadores. O segundo ensaio descreve a relação entre a má alocação de energia e a má alocação de recursos no setor de manufaturas brasileiro, e quantifica em que medida distorções que afetam o uso eficiente de energia resultam em perdas de produto agregado. Nós encontramos que as duas medidas de má alocação são positivamente relacionadas nos setores, sugerindo que a energia é um importante componente da eficiência alocativa de recursos. Nós mostramos que a realocação de recursos entre firmas de um mesmo setor levaria a ganhos agregados significativos. Entretanto, distorções de capital são responsáveis pela maior parte dos ganhos potenciais pela realocação de recursos. O terceiro ensaio compara a dinâmica do ciclo de vida em manufaturas e serviços e encontra que o crescimento ao longo do ciclo de vida é menor para firmas do setor de serviços, mesmo controlando pelo seu tamanho inicial. Nós mostramos que esse menor crescimento ocorre devido ao padrão de seleção e à fraca relação existente entre produtividade e tamanho das firmas em serviços. Finalmente, nós investigamos o papel de duas possíveis explicações para os resultados encontrados: distorções relacionadas ao ciclo de vida e custos de monitoramento.
This thesis consists of three essays on firm dynamics. The first essay evaluates the effects of supply and demand shocks on firm dynamics and selection in Brazil. We explore the fact that China’s recent growth has led not only to an increase in import competition, but also to higher export demand for commodities, which is especially relevant in developing countries. We find that firms facing greater competition from Chinese imports suffer from an increase in exit probability, while firms in industries benefiting from increased export demand have lower probability of exit. In both cases, these effects are concentrated among smaller firms. In the second article, we describe the relationship between energy misallocation and resource misallocation across manufacturing industries in Brazil, and quantify the extent to which distortions affecting energy use result in output losses at the aggregate level. We find that these two measures of misallocation are positively related across industries, which suggests that energy is an important component of resource allocation efficiency. We show that reallocating resources between firms would result in substantial aggregate output gains. However, capital distortions account for most of the potential gains in manufacturing from reallocating resources between firms. The third essay compares firm life cycle dynamics in manufacturing and services, and finds that life-cycle growth is slower for service firms, even when controlling for initial size. We show that this result arises because of the selection pattern and weaker relationship between productivity and size in service industries. Finally, we assess the role of two potential explanations for these results: age-related distortions and monitoring costs.
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Lombardo, Giovanni. "Monopolistics distortion and the real effects of monetary shocks." Thesis, University of York, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.323504.
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Liu, Xinman. "Trade linkages and growth in South Africa: an SVAR analysis." Master's thesis, Faculty of Commerce, 2019. https://hdl.handle.net/11427/31614.
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This paper investigates the vulnerability of South Africa to the shocks that originate from its major trading partners over time using a structural vector autoregressive framework. We examine the impact of shocks emanating from the EU, the US, China, Japan, India and Brazil on South Africa’s output growth through both direct and indirect trade linkages, by considering the changing trade patterns from 1996 to 2017. The results suggest that the South African economy has become more integrated with emerging economies. Furthermore, China has increased its impact on the output growth of the other sample economies through trade linkages, which implies that developments in China are of increasing importance to other economies. The US and the EU are still dominated in propagating shocks despite their declining impact on the output growth of other economies in this sample.
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Tsheko, B. O. "Analysing the impact of international trade policy shocks on the economy of Botswana." Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.493364.
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Pinat, Magali. "Global linkages, trade network and development." Thesis, Paris 1, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PA01E031/document.
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Cette thèse doctorale étudie l’impact des effets de réseau sur le commerce et la finance internationale. Le premier chapitre évalue le rôle que joue la centralité des partenaires commerciaux dans la diffusion des connaissances et conclut que l’importation de biens provenant de partenaires situés au cœur du réseau est génératrice de croissance économique. Le deuxième chapitre étudie le rôle des communautés de commerce dans la vitesse d’adoption de nouvelles technologies et établit que la diffusion des idées est encouragée au sein des pays appartenant à la même communauté. Le troisième chapitre souligne le rôle que jouent les partenaires financiers dans le choix d’investir dans une nouvelle destination et montre que les pays sont plus susceptibles d’investir dans un nouveau pays si un de leurs partenaires actuels y a déjà investi. Le quatrième chapitre évalue l’impact de l’importation des produits à risque et estime qu’une augmentation d’un pourcent des importations de produits fragiles provenant d’un pays touché par une catastrophe naturelle est associée à une réduction de 0,7 pourcent des exportations nationalesThis doctoral dissertation investigates the impact of networks effects on international trade and finance. The first chapter estimates the role a trade partners’ centrality plays in the diffusion of knowledge and finds that importing from countries at the core of the network leads to a significant increase in economic growth. The second chapter investigates the role of clusters in the speed of technology adoption and concludes that the diffusion of ideas is fostered among countries belonging to the same cluster. The third chapter emphasizes the role of current partners in choosing a destination for new investments and finds that countries are more likely to invest in a new destination if one of their existing partners have already made some investments in the location. The fourth chapter evaluates the impact of importing risky products on the economy and finds that the elasticity of a country’s exports with respect to its import share of fragile products from a partner impacted by a natural disaster is -0.7 percent
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Mendis, Chandima. "Monetary consequences of terms of trade shocks and capital flows in small open economics." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.365576.
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Hove, Seedwell. "Essays on monetary policy, institutions and terms of trade shocks in emerging market economies." Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/11544.
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Includes abstract.Includes bibliographical references.
This thesis focuses on two important features of emerging market economies: institutional weaknesses and the exposure to commodity terms of trade shocks and how they shape the macroeconomic dynamics and the conduct of monetary policy. These issues are discussed in three essays. The first essay empirically evaluates the role of institutional structures in inflation targeting in emerging market economies (EMEs). The second essay theoretically investigates the appropriate monetary policy responses to commodity terms of trade shocks using a multi-sector New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Finally, the third essay empirically analyses the responses of different monetary policy regimes to commodity terms of trade shocks in emerging market economies.
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De, Waal Annari, and Waal Annari De. "The impact of global economic shocks on South Africa amid time-varying trade linkages." Thesis, University of Pretoria, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/40261.
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Trade of South Africa with the rest of the world has changed substantially since the mid-1990s.
The United States (US), which used to be the main trading partner of South Africa, is now only
the third largest trading partner of the country. South African trade with Germany, Japan and
the United Kingdom (UK) are also lower. The key reason is the emergence of China in the
world economy. South Africa did not trade with China before 1993, but from 2009 China
became the main trading partner of the country. Globalisation and China’s emergence have
influenced the trade linkages of many other countries in the world. To incorporate the changes
in global trade linkages, the foreign variables of all the models in the study are compiled with
trade-weighted three-year moving average data.
The foremost objective of the thesis is to determine how the changes in trade linkages affect the
transmission of economic shocks originating in the rest of the world on South Africa. The global
vector autoregression (GVAR) approach is used since one of its advantages is the incorporation
of global trade linkages, which facilitates the analysis of the transmission of shocks from one
country to another.
As a GVAR model combines many individual country models, the study first estimates such a
country-specific model for South Africa to determine whether it displays the expected impact of domestic shocks on the economy. This type of model is known as a vector error correction
model (VECM) with domestic variables and weakly exogenous (X) foreign (*) variables, denoted
by VECX*. The results from the VECX* for South Africa are in line with expectations, showing
the effective transmission of monetary policy.
The study then examines the impact of international shocks on the South African economy with
a GVAR model. The GVAR, which incorporates country-specific VECX* models for 33
countries, is solved for all 33 countries using global trade weight matrices at different dates. The
results indicate that over time South Africa is much more vulnerable to GDP shocks to the
Chinese economy, and less vulnerable to GDP shocks to the US economy. These trends are
however not confined to South Africa, and as such highlights the increased risk to the South
African economy and many other economies, should China experience slower GDP growth.
Finally, the thesis determines whether the forecasting performance of GVAR models is superior
to that of a country-specific VECX* model. The study compares the out-of-sample forecasts of
two key South African variables (real GDP and inflation) for five types of models: a VECX*, a
customised small GVAR for South Africa, the more general 33-country GVAR, simple
autoregressive models and random walk models. Better forecasts of both the GVAR models
compared to the VECX* model at forecast horizons of more than four quarters show that,
despite the complicated nature of the GVAR model with the inclusion of many countries and
global trade linkages, the additional information is useful for forecasting domestic variablesThesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2013.
gm2014
Economics
unrestricted
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DE, SANTIS ROBERTA, and SANTIS Roberta DE. "Trade as international transmission mechanism of shocks: The case of Central Eastern European Countries." Doctoral thesis, La Sapienza, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/11573/916890.
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Soedomo, Sudarsono. "Effects of monetary shocks on the dynamics of stumpage price and timber harvest /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 2003. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p3099639.
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Lee, Byung Rhae. "Monetary policy and the effects of oil price shocks on the Japanese economy /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 1998. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9924898.
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Boman, Viktor. "The impact from oil price shocks on the Trade Balance : The case of the two Nordic brothers." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-161058.
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This paper investigates the relationship between oil price shocks on two measures of oil importers and exporter´s trade balances, namely the Merchandise Trade balance and Non-oil trade balance. The paper also aims to analyse whether oil price fluctuation tend to explain a smaller or larger part of the variability on the Trade and Non-oil trade balance. The short-run dynamics running from the oil price to overall and non-oil trade balance are investigated using a Impulse Response function, Granger causality test and Forecast error variance decomposition test(FEVD) with quarterly data spanning between Q1 1995 to Q4 2018. Two Nordic countries distinguishable in their terms of oil characteristic are regarded in this analysis. Sweden as an oil importer and Norway as oil exporter. Furthermore, a subperiod estimation are performed by splitting the time series into two subperiod, and thereby be able to perform a FEVD test to see whether the share of oil regarding its influence on the trade balance are decreasing over time.
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Batiste, Jorge Chami. "Foreign indebtedness and macroeconomic external adjustment : Brazil's industrial strategy and policy responses to external shocks in the 1970s and 1980s." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1989. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.276742.
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Munoz-Giro, Juan Enrique. "A general equilibrium analysis of temporary terms-of-trade shocks in a developing economy : coffee in Costa Rica /." The Ohio State University, 1993. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1487843688960815.
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Park, Jung Wook. "Oil price shocks and stock market behavior empirical evidence for the U.S. and European Countries /." Diss., Columbia, Mo. : University of Missouri-Columbia, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10355/4886.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2007.The entire dissertation/thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file (which also appears in the research.pdf); a non-technical general description, or public abstract, appears in the public.pdf file. Title from title screen of research.pdf file (viewed on September 28, 2007) Vita. Includes bibliographical references.
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Bourgeon, Pauline. "Essays on the impact of shocks on international flows and productivity." Thesis, Paris 1, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PA01E023.
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Cette thèse aborde différentes thématiques dans le champ de l’économie internationale et de la macroéconomie. Les travaux de recherche développés dans cette thèse étudient l’impact des chocs de différentes natures sur les flux de migrations internationales, de commerce international et sur la croissance de la productivité. Le premier chapitre s’intéresse à l’évolution des flux migratoires en réaction à des chocs conjoncturels. L’estimation du modèle à partir des données nous permet de conclure qu’à la fois les chocs structurels et les chocs conjoncturels influent les flux de migration. Une augmentation de 10% du salaire du pays de destination conduirait à une augmentation du flux migratoire vers ce pays de destination de près de 8%, toutes choses égales par ailleurs. Le second chapitre étudie dans quelles mesures les chocs financiers affectent le niveau des exportations des entreprises, avec un focus particulier sur les entreprises qui exportent vers des destinations lointaines. Nous trouvons que les entreprises qui font face à des frictions financières exportent entre 4% et 10% de moins que celles qui ne sont pas soumises à ces frictions. Nos résultats montrent également que parmi les exportateurs en difficulté financière, ceux qui exportent vers des destinations lointaines réduisent encore davantage leurs exportations. Dans le chapitre trois, nous étudions comment les frictions financières peuvent conduire à des distorsions dans l’allocation des ressources. Nos résultats suggèrent que dans les pays développés financièrement, les capitaux ne permettent pas forcément une amélioration de l’allocation efficace du travail entre les firmesThis thesis covers various issues in international economics and macroeconomics.It studies the role of several types of shocks on international migration, firms’ export strategies and sectoral productivity growth. The three chapters exploit different sources of data and use recent econometrics approaches to deal with these issues.Chapter one contributes to the literature on international migration by looking at the role of short-run fluctuations as determinants of the location choice of the migrants. We find evidence that business cycles and employment rates at destination affect the intensity of gross bilateral flows.Chapter two investigates how financial frictions impact firms’ foreign sales, especially for firms that export to long distance export markets. We find that firmsfacing financial frictions export from 4 to 10% less than the ones without anyfinancial constraints. Our results also suggest that amongst exporters facing financial difficulties, those who export to faraway destinations reduce their exportsales more.Chapter three investigates how financial frictions affect the efficiency with which labor allocates across firms within a sector. Results suggest that an increase intangibility decreases the productivity growth rate of an industry located in highly financially developed country and this lower productivity growth rate is largely explained by the reallocation of labour across firms within the sector
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Kraybill, David S. "A computable general equilibrium analysis of regional impacts of macro-shocks in the 1980S." Diss., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/53561.
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The purpose of this study is assess the domestic regional impacts of changes in federal fiscal policies and the nation's trade deficit. An attempt is made to fill a gap in the literature of regional economics by providing an explanation of how economic changes at national and international levels are transmitted to regions, and by providing general-equilibrium estimates of the effects of these changes. The level of regional economic activity is assumed to be linked to the federal budget through federal purchases of goods and services, through intergovernmental transfers, and through net transfers to households. Domestic regions are linked to the balance of trade through shifts in exports and imports and through shifts in net income transfers from abroad.
An interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is constructed and calibrated for Virginia and the rest of the United States (ROUS). Scenarios approximating federal fiscal policies and the trade deficit during the period 1981-85 are introduced, and the model is solved to obtain a new equilibrium. As a result of these shocks, it is concluded: (a) that the magnitude of sectoral effects differed in Virginia versus ROUS, (b) that in contrast to non-rural sectors, rural sectors in Virginia experienced slower growth in value added, (c) that investment in Virginia and in ROUS increased in response to the net inflow of savings from abroad, but the increase was mitigated by the rise in federal spending, and (d) that a tariff increase on the output of the apparel and textile industry would increase output in that industry in Virginia but would decrease it in other industries if the economy were fully employed.Ph. D.
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Siddig, Khalid Hassan Ali. "Macroeconomy and agriculture in Sudan analysis of trade policies, external shocks, and economic bans in a computable general equilibrium approach." Weikersheim Margraf, 2009. http://d-nb.info/997918276/04.
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Mobarhan, Majid Ghayour. "Biochemical and dietary features of patients at coronary risk : a focus on trace element and antioxidant status and heat shock protein antibody titres." Thesis, University of Surrey, 2004. http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/844247/.
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Coronary heart disease (CHD) is a common multi-factorial disease. It is influenced by dietary factors, and inflammatory markers appear to predict outcomes. The dietary intake of patients at coronary risk and controls was assessed by food frequency questionnaire. Dietary macro- and micronutrient intake was related to plasma antibody titres to heat shock proteins. Dyslipidaemic patients (n=238) were recruited from the Lipid Clinics of a local NHS hospital, Guildford. Demographic features, including the prevalence of CHD risk factors such as hypertension and obesity, were typical of a Lipid Clinic population. Controls (n=189) were recruited from hospital and university employees. The dyslipidaemic patients were found to have a significantly higher dietary intake of protein (p < 0.05), starch (p < 0.05), fibre (p < 0.05), total fat (p < 0.05), selenium (p < 0.05), zinc (p < 0.01) and a higher dietary zinc/ copper ratio, compared to controls. These patients also had significantly higher serum copper (p < 0.001), copper/caeruloplasmin ratio (p < 0.01) and selenium (p < 0.05) concentrations and lower GPx (p < 0.001) and zinc/ copper ratio (p < 0.05) than controls. Serum selenium concentrations decreased with accumulating features of the metabolic syndrome within the dyslipidaemic subjects (p < 0.05). Among dyslipidaemia; obesity and the presence of the metabolic syndrome contributed significantly to serum C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations. CRP concentrations increased with accumulating features of the metabolic syndrome (p < 0.01). Although antibody titres to Hsp-60, -65 and -70 were higher in the dyslipidaemic patients (p < 0.02), little of the variation in antibody titres could be explained by classical CHD risk factors. Dietary total fat (p < 0.01), vitamin E (p < 0.05) and C (p < 0.01) were major determinants of titres to Hsp-60, dietary vitamin C (p < 0.01), and vitamin E (p < 0.05) were major determinants of titres to Hsp-65 (p < 0.01), and dietary total fat was a determinant of titres to Hsp-70 (p < 0.05). Treatment of dyslipidaemic patients with statins reduced titres to Hsp-60 (p < 0.05), -65 (p < 0.01) and -70 (p < 0.01), and was also associated with a reduction in serum zinc (p < 0.05), copper (p < 0.01), caeruloplasmin (p < 0.05) and CRP (P < 0.05).
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Naqvi, Asjad, and Irene Monasterolo. "Natural Disasters, Cascading Losses, and Economic Complexity: A Multi-layer Behavioral Network Approach." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2019. http://epub.wu.ac.at/6914/1/WP_24.pdf.
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Assessing the short-term socio-economic impacts of climate-led disasters on food trade networks requires new bottom-up models and vulnerability metrics rooted in complexity theory. Indeed, such shocks could generate cascading socio-economic losses across the networks layers where emerging agents¿ responses could trigger tipping points. We contribute to address this research gap by developing a multi-layer behavioral network methodology composed of multiple spatially-explicit layers populated by heterogeneous interacting agents. Then, by introducing a new multi-layer risk measure called vulnerability rank, or VRank, we quantify the stress in the aftermath of a
shock. Our approach allows us to analyze both the supply- and the demand-side dimensions of the shock by quantifying short-term behavioral responses, the transmission channels across the layers, the conditions for reaching tipping points, and the feedback on macroeconomic indicators. By simulating a stylized two-layer supply-side production and demand-side household network model we find that, (i) socio-economic vulnerability to climate-led disasters is cyclical, (ii) the distribution of shocks depends critically on the network structure, and on the speed of supply-side and demand-side responses. Our results suggest that such a multi-layer framework could provide a comprehensive picture of how climate-led shocks cascade and how indirect losses can be measured. This is crucial to inform effective post-disaster policies aimed to build food trade network resilience to climate-led shocks, in particular in more agriculture-dependent bread-basket regions.Series: Ecological Economic Papers
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Jansson, Tor Walter Kristian. "The finance-growth nexus in Britain, 1850-1913." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2018. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/279082.
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This thesis argues that the financial sector played a positive, but limited role in British economic growth from 1850 to 1913. It examines empirically the role played by different types of financial institutions: commercial banks, stock markets and merchant banks. To this end, the thesis uses recently developed time series and dynamic panel methods for the econometric analysis, alongside new data on different parts of the financial system. The results suggest that at a national level, the growth of commercial banks had a limited impact on British economic development over the long run, and stock markets had no impact. However, changes in bank lending influenced economic growth to a significant extent in the short term. Growing conservatism in bank lending practices did not significantly increase credit constraints, as had been previously suspected. Findings from new geographically disaggregated data indicate that the spread of bank offices improved the economic performance of English and Welsh counties. Increased concentration of the banking industry did not hinder economic growth, a result that challenges widespread suggestions in the relevant literature. Moreover, the development of provincial stock exchanges – exchanges outside London - did not influence county-level economic growth, contrary to the view that they were important for the expansion of local industry. Finally, this thesis is the first to assess econometrically the role of merchant banks. It demonstrates that their trade financing activities were beneficial not only for the growth of British international trade, but also for that of the domestic economy.
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Estrades, Carmen. "Une analyse de l'impact de chocs extérieurs et de réformes de politique commerciale sur la pauvreté et l’inégalité en Uruguay." Thesis, Bordeaux 4, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012BOR40029/document.
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L'objectif de cette thèse est d'évaluer différents chocs extérieurs et des réformes de politique commerciale sur une petite économie ouverte comme l'Uruguay, en mettant l’accent sur la compréhension des canaux de transmission des chocs vers la répartition des revenus et la pauvreté. Plus précisément, j'évalue deux chocs externes –la récente crise financière et une augmentation des prix alimentaires et pétroliers- et une réforme de politique commerciale: la négociation d'un accord de libre-échange entre le Mercosur et l'Union Européenne. Pour ce faire, j’applique différents modèles d'équilibre général (EGC): deux modèles statiques uni-pays et un modèle global dynamique, MIRAGE-HH, qui comprend une désagrégation des ménages. Les modèles EGC sont combinées avec des techniques de microsimulation: microsimulation non-paramétrique et méthode «micro-accounting». Comme les chocs extérieurs peuvent avoir un impact négatif sur la pauvreté en Uruguay, j’évalue aussi les options politiques visant à atténuer cet impact négatif. Les résultats montrent que les canaux de transmission des réformes de politique commerciale et des chocs extérieurs sont divers et complexes et ils peuvent avoir des effets opposés sur la pauvreté. Ils mettent également en évidence le fait que l'impact sur les différents groupes de population n'est pas uniforme. Dans certains cas, les chocs positifs sur l'économie peuvent encore nuire à des groupes de population. Dans la plupart des cas, les groupes affectés négativement sont les populations déjà vulnérables ayant peu de ressources pour faire face à ces chocs. Pour cette raison, il est important d'évaluer aussi des réponses politiques pour éviter cet impact négatif sur les pauvresThe aim of this dissertation is to evaluate different external shocks and trade policies on a small open economy such as Uruguay, making an emphasis in understanding the channels of transmission of the shocks to income distribution and poverty in the country. Specifically, I evaluate two external shocks –the recent financial crisis and an increase in food and oil prices- and one trade policy –the negotiation of a free trade agreement between MERCOSUR (conformed by Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) and the European Union. For doing so, I apply different general equilibrium models: two different static single country models and one global dynamic model, MIRAGE-HH, which includes household disaggregation. The CGE models are combined with microsimulation techniques: non-parametric microsimulations and micro-accounting methods. Results show that the channels of transmission of trade policies and external shocks are diverse and complex and they may have opposite effects on welfare and poverty. They also highlight the fact that the impact on different population groups is not even. In some cases, positive shocks on the economy may still harm population groups. In most cases,iiithey are the already vulnerable population who count with fewer resources to counteract negative shocks. For this reason, it is important to also evaluate policy responses to prevent this negative impact on the poor
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Brunelin, Stéphanie. "Essays on food security in sub-Saharan Africa : The role of food prices and climate shocks." Phd thesis, Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I, 2014. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01011786.
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La crise alimentaire de 2008 a suscité un regain d'intérêt pour les questions agricoles et de sécurité alimentaire dans les pays en développement. Partant du constat que près de 27% de la population d'Afrique Sub-saharienne souffre de malnutrition, cette thèse a pour objectif de contribuer à une meilleure compréhension des causes complexes de l'insécurité alimentaire. Le premier chapitre étudie les mécanismes de transmission des variations du prix mondial du riz aux prix domestiques dans trois pays ouest-africain: le Sénégal, le Tchad et le Mali. Les résultats indiquent que le prix du riz importé à Dakar et le prix du riz local à Bamako répondent de façon asymétrique aux variations du prix mondial. Le chapitre 2 teste la présence d'obstacles aux échanges agricoles entre pays d'Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre. Il ressort de l'analyse que le passage des frontières est coûteux. Toutefois, le coût associé au passage de la frontière est plus faible entre pays membre d'une même union économique et monétaire. Le chapitre 3 a pour objectif le renforcement des systèmes d'alertes précoces des crises alimentaires existants au Sahel. Il montre qu'il est possible d'anticiper les crises de prix avec six mois d'avance en analysant les mouvements passés des prix des céréales. Enfin, le chapitre 4 s'intéresse à la vulnérabilité des ménages face aux chocs pluviométriques. Il révèle que les ménages ruraux au Burkina Faso n'ont pas la capacité d'assurer ou d'absorber ces chocs climatiques.
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Bianca, Ana Lúcia de Souza Leão. "Macroeconomia da composição do comércio exterior." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/15980.
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The global financial crisis occurred in 2008, it is widely discussed within the idiosyncrasies caused by external shocks, including the liquidity shocks and terms of trade. In this paper, we analyze the characteristics of the composition of Brazilian foreign trade and its effects on the domestic macro economy through a DSGE model for Brazil. For this, it sought to calibrate this model and analyze the impact of liquidity shocks and terms of trade in the main macroeconomic variables. The model results suggest that financial crises can generate substantial effects on emerging economies such as in Brazil, and the dynamics of these effects will it also depend on the composition of the trade balance of the country.
A crise financeira mundial, ocorrida em 2008, é amplamente discutida no âmbito das idiossincrasias causadas por choques externos, dentre eles os choques de liquidez e dos termos de troca. No presente trabalho, analisamos as particularidades da composição do comércio exterior brasileiro e seus efeitos sobre a macroeconomia doméstica, através de um modelo DSGE para o Brasil. Para tanto, buscou-se calibrar este modelo e analisar os impactos dos choques de liquidez e dos termos de troca nas principais variáveis macroeconômicas. Os resultados do modelo sugerem que crises financeiras podem gerar efeitos substanciais em economias emergentes, como no caso brasileiro, e a dinâmica desses efeitos dependerá também da composição da balança comercial do país.
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PIRIU, ANDREEA ALEXANDRA. "ESSAYS ON GLOBALISATION: EFFECTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIVIDUALS." Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Milano, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/2434/728739.
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This thesis studies the effects of import competition from China and Eastern Europe
on the health and fertility decisions of German individuals working in manufacturing.
Individuals are matched with separate measures of exposure to competition from China
and Eastern Europe, respectively. To isolate exogenous supply shocks from the origin,
instrumental variables for competition from each of China and Eastern Europe are constructed.
Results in Chapter 1 suggest that higher import competition worsens individual health via
job displacement, wage decline, shortened employment duration, increased reliance on
welfare and less future orientation, with Chinese import competition affecting individuals
twice as much. Health declines as individuals increase their visits to the doctor, exercise
less frequently and have a higher probability of developing chronic illness. Also, there is
some evidence that individuals do not tend to become disabled but may be slowly pushed
into chronic illness.
Findings in Chapter 2 show that import competition negatively affects the individual’s
probability of having children via reduced earnings, lower satisfaction with personal
income and shortened employment duration. The chapter then investigates effects of
import exposure by gender. Results show that male and female fertility choices differ
upon rising import competition. Higher import exposure lowers female earnings and
job autonomy, which in turn generates a lower opportunity cost of work, to the point
where having children would become a more rewarding alternative for female workers.
By contrast, increased import exposure negatively affects male workers’ fertility through
reduced earnings and employment duration.
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Wakeford, Jeremy J. "Socioeconomic implications of global oil depletion for South Africa : vulnerabilities, impacts and transition to sustainability." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/71729.
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Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Oil is the quintessential resource in the modern industrial economy. It accounts for a third of world primary energy, fuels 95% of global transport systems, sustains a highly mechanised agribusiness and food distribution industry, and provides the feedstock for a staggering array of petrochemical products. Historically, global economic growth has been closely coupled with consumption of energy in general and oil in particular. Yet oil is a finite resource subject to depletion, which has profound implications for the long-term sustainability of industrial civilisation. This dissertation addresses a serious dearth of attention given to this vital subject within South African energy, economic and policy discourses. The overarching aims are to understand the implications of global oil depletion for socioeconomic welfare in South Africa and to propose viable strategies and policies for mitigating and adapting to potential negative impacts. A comparative evaluation of three fields of study found that neoclassical economics is limited by its monistic and reductionist approach and its failure to adequately incorporate energy into its key theoretical models, whereas ecological economics and the socioecological systems approach together provide an appropriate, holistic lens for analysing the role of energy in socioeconomic systems. In this view, energy is the master resource: it is a pre-requisite for economic activity and societal complexity. A review of the literature on global oil depletion finds that a peak and decline in world oil production appears imminent, while world oil exports most likely peaked in 2005. Moreover, the energy return on (energy) investment (EROI) for global oil production is on a declining trend. The world oil peak thus marks the end of the era of cheap and abundant oil. Increasing oil scarcity will likely be reflected in oil prices following a rising trend with heightened volatility. While there are many potential substitutes for oil, all have significant limitations, most have lower EROI than oil, and it may take decades to scale them up sufficiently. Many aspects of the South African socioeconomic system are either directly or indirectly dependent on petroleum fuels, while structural features of the economy and society render them vulnerable to external shocks. Historical evidence and empirical models suggest that oil price and supply shocks will have debilitating socioeconomic impacts. Under business-as-usual policies and behaviours, future oil scarcity will likely lead at best to a gradual contraction in the economy with rising unemployment and inflation, and at worst to systemic collapse of interconnected critical infrastructure systems. A comprehensive range of mitigation measures are proposed, including accelerated investments in renewable energy and electrified mass transport, agro-ecological farming, greening the economy, monetary system reform, and rationing schemes to protect the most vulnerable members of society. Together these measures can build resilience to shocks and gradually decouple economic activity from petroleum consumption. A successful societal transition from a fossil fuel based industrial regime to a sustainable socioeconomic regime requires purposive government intervention, the promotion of sustainability-oriented innovations in technology and institutions, and the political will to surmount obstacles such as powerful vested interests and socio-technical lock-in.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Olie is die kern-hulpmiddel in die moderne bedryfsgerigte ekonomie. Dit is verantwoordelik vir ’n derde van die wêreld se primêre energie, verskaf die aandrywing vir 95% van alle vervoerstelsels, onderhou ’n hoogs gemeganiseerde landboubedryf en voedselverspreidingsnywerheid, en voorsien die voerstof vir ’n verstommende reeks petrochemiese produkte. Histories beskou, is globale ekonomiese groei ten nouste gekoppel aan die verbruik van energie oor die algemeen en aan olie in die besonder. Tog is olie ’n beperkte hulpbron wat onderworpe is aan uitputting en lediging, en dit hou gevolglik onmeetlike implikasies vir die algemene langtermyn volhoubaarheid van nywerhede in. Dié verhandeling neem die ernstige gebrek aan aandag binne Suid-Afrikaanse diskoerse oor energie, ekonomie en beleidsrigtings wat betref hierdie lewensbelangrike onderwerp, in oënskou. Die oorkoepelende doelwitte is om die implikasies van globale olie-uitputting op sosio-ekonomiese welvaart in Suid-Afrika te begryp, en om lewensvatbare strategieë en beleidsrigtings voor te stel waarvolgens potensiële negatiewe invloede getemper en by aangepas kan word. ’n Vergelykende evaluering van drie studieterreine het bevind neoklassieke ekonomie is beperk weens sy monistiese en verlagingsbenadering en sy mislukking om energie doelmatig in te sluit by sy sleutel teoretiese modelle, terwyl die benaderings van die ekologiese ekonomie en die sosio-ekologiese stelsels saam ’n toepaslike holistiese lens bied vir die analisering van die rol van energie in sosio-ekonomiese stelsels. In dié opsig is energie die meester-hulpmiddel: dit is ’n voorvereiste vir ekonomiese bedrywigheid en gemeenskapsverbondenheid. ’n Oorsig van die literatuur oor globale olie-lediging toon dat ’n toppunt en daling in wêreldolieproduksie onvermydelik blyk te wees – globale olie-uitvoer het na alle waarskynlikheid sy toppunt in 2005 bereik. Voorts toon die energie-opbrengs op (energie) investering, ofte wel EROI, ten opsigte van wêreldolieproduksie ’n dalende tendens. Die wêreldolie-toppunt dui dus op die einde van die era van goedkoop en oorvloedige olie. Toenemende olieskaarste sal waarskynlik blyk uit oliepryse wat ’n stygende tendens volg gepaard met verskerpte veranderlikheid. Hoewel daar talle potensiële plaasvervangers vir olie bestaan, het almal beduidende beperkinge, die meeste se EROI is laer as olie s’n en dit kan dekades duur alvorens hulle genoegsaam opgegradeer sal kan word. Vele aspekte van die Suid-Afrikaanse sosio-ekonomiese stelsel is of direk of indirek afhanklik van petroleum-brandstowwe, terwyl strukturele kenmerke van die ekonomie en samelewing hulle kwesbaar vir eksterne skokke laat. Lesse uit die verlede en empiriese modelle dui daarop dat die olieprys en skokke rondom die voorsiening daarvan verlammende sosio-ekonomiese impakte en invloede tot gevolg sal hê. Onder ’n sake-soos-gewoonlik-beleid en optrede, sal toekomstige olieskaarste, optimisties beskou, waarskynlik aanleiding gee tot geleidelike inkrimping van die ekonomie met gepaardgaande stygende werkloosheid en inflasie – pessimisties beskou, kan dit die sistematiese ineenstorting van kritiesbelangrike en onderling verbonde infrastruktuurstelsels beteken. ’n Omvattende reeks verligtingsmaatreëls word voorgestel, insluitende versnelde investering in hernubare energie en geëlektrifiseerde massavervoer, agro-ekologiese landbou, vergroening van die ekonomie, monetêre stelselhervorming en rantsoeneringskemas om die mees kwesbare lede van die samelewing te beskerm. Saam kan dié maatreëls veerkragtigheid vestig teen skokke en ekonomiese bedrywigheid geleidelik van petroleumverbruik losmaak. ’n Geslaagde samelewingsoorgang van ’n fossielbrandstof-gebaseerde nywerheidsbestel na ’n volhoubare sosio-ekonomiese bestel vereis doelmatige regeringsintervensie, die bevordering van volhoubaar-georiënteerde innovasies in
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Jurdi, Doureige. "Essays on volatility and liquidity in financial markets." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2012. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/61103/1/Doureige_Jurdi_Thesis.pdf.
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The price formation of financial assets is a complex process. It extends beyond the standard economic paradigm of supply and demand to the understanding of the dynamic behavior of price variability, the price impact of information, and the implications of trading behavior of market participants on prices. In this thesis, I study aggregate market and individual assets volatility, liquidity dimensions, and causes of mispricing for US equities over a recent sample period. How volatility forecasts are modeled, what determines intradaily jumps and causes changes in intradaily volatility and what drives the premium of traded equity indexes? Are they induced, for example, by the information content of lagged volatility and return parameters or by macroeconomic news, changes in liquidity and volatility? Besides satisfying our intellectual curiosity, answers to these questions are of direct importance to investors developing trading strategies, policy makers evaluating macroeconomic policies and to arbitrageurs exploiting mispricing in exchange-traded funds. Results show that the leverage effect and lagged absolute returns improve forecasts of continuous components of daily realized volatility as well as jumps. Implied volatility does not subsume the information content of lagged returns in forecasting realized volatility and its components. The reported results are linked to the heterogeneous market hypothesis and demonstrate the validity of extending the hypothesis to returns. Depth shocks, signed order flow, the number of trades, and resiliency are the most important determinants of intradaily volatility. In contrast, spread shock and resiliency are predictive of signed intradaily jumps. There are fewer macroeconomic news announcement surprises that cause extreme price movements or jumps than those that elevate intradaily volatility. Finally, the premium of exchange-traded funds is significantly associated with momentum in net asset value and a number of liquidity parameters including the spread, traded volume, and illiquidity. The mispricing of industry exchange traded funds suggest that limits to arbitrage are driven by potential illiquidity.
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Meddah, Hayette. "On the choice of exchange rate regimes : the case of primary commodity exporting countries." Thesis, Lyon 2, 2010. http://www.theses.fr/2010LYO22019.
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La première partie de la thèse se compose d'une recherche empirique visant à examiner si les producteurs de produits primaires s'adaptent mieux après un choc d'offre sous un régime de taux de change flottant. À l'aide d'un modèle VAR, j'ai trouvé que les régimes de taux de change flexible n'effectuent pas mieux à isoler l'économie des chocs externes. Par conséquent, la deuxième partie de la thèse vise à établir ou non si les régimes de taux de change fournissent certains avantages pour les pays exportateurs de produits primaires tels que le fait d'attirer les investissements directs a l'étranger. À l'aide de différentes estimations économétriques, les résultats montrent que les régimes de taux de change influencent les investissements directs à l'étranger et en particulier, les régimes de change fixes plutôt que les régimes plus flexiblesThe first part of dissertation consists of an empirical research aiming at investigating whether primary commodity producers perform better after a real shock with floating exchange rate regimes. Using a VAR model I found that flexible exchange rate regimes do not perform better at insulating the output from external shocks. Therefore, the second part of the dissertation aims at establishing whether or not exchange rate regimes provide certain benefit for those countries such as attracting foreign direct investments. Using panel data estimation techniques, I found that exchange rate regimes matters in attracting FDI and in particular fixed regimes rather than flexible regimes
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Zouri, Stéphane. "La Communauté économique des États de l'Afrique de l'Ouest est-elle une zone monétaire optimale ?" Thesis, Paris 1, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020PA01E020.
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Cette thèse de Doctorat étudie de manière empirique l’optimalité monétaire dans la CEDEAO. Elle est subdivisée en 4 chapitres et s’inscrit dans une démarche dynamique de la théorie des Zones Monétaires Optimales (ZMO). Le chapitre 1 montre que la théorie traditionnelle des ZMO ne permet pas de porter un jugement crédible et tranché sur la capacité des États ouest africains à former un espace monétaire optimal. En outre, il souligne l’ambiguïté des résultats obtenus dans les précédents travaux empiriques. Toutefois, ces travaux datent et la majorité d’entre eux sont statiques et omettent les changements structurels susceptibles d’intervenir dans la zone. Le chapitre 2 analyse le degré d’asymétrie des chocs au sein de la CEDEAO. Nous montrons que les économies de la région sont marquées par des degrés d’asymétries relativement élevés. Toutefois, nous soulignons la nécessité d’une analyse dynamique des chocs car une union monétaire qui est considérée dès le départ comme coûteuse peut au fil du temps devenir bénéfique. Le chapitre 3 identifie les déterminants de la synchronisation des cycles économiques dans la CEDEAO. Nous montrons que le commerce bilatéral et l’intégration financière sont des déterminants de la synchronisation des cycles économiques dans la région. De plus, nous montrons que la monnaie unique augmente la synchronisation des cycles économiques via les échanges bilatéraux. Le chapitre 4 analyse les mécanismes de lissage des revenus et de la consommation au sein de la CEDEAO. Nous montrons que l’aide publique au développement et l’épargne brute permettent de lisser les chocs asymétriques entre les pays de la CEDEAO. En outre, nous montrons que même si le degré de partage des risques a augmenté au fil du temps, il reste faible. Ainsi, la création d’un fonds budgétaire pourrait fournir un outil supplémentaire pour atténuer les chocs asymétriques dans la régionThis Ph.D. dissertation empirically investigates the optimality of a single currency in ECOWAS. It is subdivided into 4 chapters and is part of a dynamic approach to the theory of Optimum Currency Area (OCA). Chapter 1 shows that the traditional theory of OCA has not made it possible to make a credible and decisive judgement on the ability of West African states to form an OCA. In addition, it highlights the ambiguity of the results obtained in previous empirical works. However, these works are dated and the majority of them are static and omit the structural changes likely to occur in the area. Chapter 2 analyzes the degree of asymmetry of shocks within ECOWAS. We show that the economies of the region are marked by relatively high degrees of asymmetry. However, we stress the need to take into account the dynamic aspect of shocks, since a monetary union considered from the outset as costly can over time become beneficial. Chapter 3 identifies the determinants of synchronization of business cycles in ECOWAS. We show that bilateral trade and financial integration are determinants of the synchronization of business cycles in the region. In addition, we show that single currency increases the synchronization of business cycles through bilateral trade. Chapter 4 explores income and consumption smoothing patterns among ECOWAS. We show that official development assistance and gross savings smooth out asymmetric shocks between ECOWAS countries. Moreover, we show that even if the degree of risksharing has increased over time, it has remains limited. Thus, the creation of a supranational fiscal could provide an additional tool to mitigate asymmetric shocks in the region
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Hollweg, Claire Honoré. "Essays on the transmission of economic shocks." Thesis, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2440/85927.
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This thesis explores the transmission of economic shocks. Although the thesis is structured as four stand-alone chapters, the common theme throughout is identifying the impact of economic shocks: either idiosyncratic shocks at the household-level, macroeconomic shocks emanating from foreign countries and transmitted through global markets, or countries’ own macroeconomic policy changes (for example, structural reforms or trade reforms). Each chapter applies a different empirical methodology, including structural estimation, reduced form instrumental variables estimation, and growth accounting. Finally, each chapter utilizes a different dataset and country sample selection. While one chapter uses a micro dataset from household-level surveys, others use cross-country datasets at the aggregate country level. Both developed and developing countries are considered in the analyses. The thesis begins by exploring the relationship between idiosyncratic income changes and consumption changes of Australian households over the period 2001-2009. A major contribution to the literature is the use of the Household Income and Labor Dynamics of Australia dataset that includes panels on both consumption and income data. For the entire sample of Australian households, nearly full consumption smoothing exists against transitory shocks. Although less consumption smoothing exists against permanent shocks, Australian households still achieve a high degree of consumption smoothing against highly persistent shocks, particularly when compared to households in the United States. Durable purchases, female labor supply, and taxes and transfers are all found to act as consumption-smoothing mechanisms. The thesis then explores the impact of structural reforms on a comprehensive list of macro-level labor-market outcomes, including the unemployment rate, employment levels, average wage index, and labor force participation rates. After documenting the average trends across countries in the labor-market outcomes up to ten years on either side of each country’s reform year, fixed-effects ordinary least squares as well as instrumental variables regressions are performed to account for likely endogeneity of structural reforms to labor-market outcomes. Overall the results suggest that structural reforms lead to positive outcomes for labor, particularly for informal workers. Redistributive effects in favor of workers, along the lines of the Stolper-Samuelson effect, may be at work. The thesis then explores the impact of trade liberalization on macroeconomic estimates of productivity using Brazil as a case study. Trade and economic reforms can affect the price of capital goods relative to other tradable and especially non-tradable goods. If the price of capital investments rises more than the price of all goods and services in the economy, mismeasurement of the price of capital caused by the divergence in these relative prices would result in an overestimated capital stock and underestimated TFP. This chapter overcomes this bias by constructing a capital price index using international trade data on capital goods’ unit values then adjusts the index to reflect domestic Brazilian prices. A significant recovery between 1992 and 2006 is observed, highlighting the important role of the price deflator in growth accounting. The final chapter of this thesis proposes a methodology to measure the vulnerability of a country through exports to fluctuations in the economic activity of foreign markets. Export vulnerability depends first on the overall level of export exposure, measured as the share of exports to a foreign market in gross domestic product, and second on the sensitivity of exports to fluctuations in foreign gross domestic product. This sensitivity is captured by estimating origin-destination specific elasticities of exports with respect to changes in foreign gross domestic product using a gravity model of trade. Although the results suggest differences in elasticity estimates across regions as well as product categories, the principal source of international heterogeneity in export vulnerability results from differences in export exposure to global markets.Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Economics, 2014
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Tsai, Yun-tzu, and 蔡芸姿. "The Impact of Terms of Trade Shocks in Taiwan." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/20260549985615308766.
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碩士國立中山大學
經濟學研究所
104
The terms of trade of Taiwan has declined since 1998. This paper constructs a DSGE model, calibrated to Taiwanese economy, to study the macroeconomic effects of terms of trade (TOT) shocks. It finds that a negative TOT shock has negative effect on overall output, consumption, investment, and it reduces wage rates of both non-traded and traded goods sectors. The paper also quantifies the extent to which improvement in TFP of the traded goods sector can compensate the negative effects of the TOT shocks. On average, TFP of the traded goods sector needs to improve by about 3 percent per year to offset the output loss attributable to negative TOT shocks from 1998 to 2014.
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Al, Jabri SAN. "Essays on fiscal policy, external balance, and trade linkages of the Omani economy." Thesis, 2020. https://eprints.utas.edu.au/38419/1/Al_Jabri_whole_thesis.pdf.
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For many developing oil exporting economies, oil revenue contributes to a relatively high percentage of government revenue and to the value of export commodities. The high dependency on oil revenue has raised concern about the impact of oil price shocks on these economies and their vulnerability to oil price fluctuations. In the modern Omani economy, petroleum is a vital economic sector. In 2018, the petroleum sector contributed (i) 40.8% to Omani real gross domestic product (GDP), (ii) 65.3% to Omani’s total exports, and (iii) 78.2% to Omani’s government revenue (NCSI, 2019). A survey by the Central Bank of Oman highlighted a drastic fall in oil prices could be a threat to financial stability in Oman (CBO, 2016b).
The first essay of this thesis studies the impact of oil price shocks on fiscal policy and real GDP in the Sultanate of Oman. It employs a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model with quarterly frequency data from 1989Q4 to 2016Q4. Impulse responses, variance decomposition analysis, and historical decomposition show that an oil price shock can have a significant impact on government revenue and GDP. An oil price shock explains around 22% and 46% of the variation in the government revenue and GDP, respectively. Decomposing the government revenue and GDP further into petroleum and non-petroleum related components, we find that an oil price shock explains around 26% of the variation in petroleum revenue and 90% of the petroleum-GDP. Petroleum and non-petroleum GDP respond positively to oil price shocks, while they respond negatively to oil price volatility. Government expenditure is not affected by oil prices, but it is affected by government revenue. This result demonstrates that government revenue is the channel through which oil price shocks impact government expenditure. The results also illustrate that the Omani government uses its reserve fund, and local and international debt to smooth, and reduce the impact of oil price fluctuations.
The second essay examines the Twin Deficits Hypothesis on the relationship between fiscal and trade balances for Oman, where the fiscal balance heavily relies on oil export revenue. According to the twin deficit hypothesis, the casual effects run from fiscal balance to trade balance. For example, a rise in the budget deficit through tax cuts or government expenditure increases, raises the domestic absorption through import expansions, leading to current account deficit. Therefore, the Twin Deficit Hypothesis may hold for countries where the government expenditure is largely funded through tax revenue. Compared to that, for oil-reliant economies like Oman, taxes contributed only 9.18% of the government revenue in 2018 while oil contributed 78.24% of the revenue. In this paper, we use the SVAR model and a Structural Vector Error Correction (SVECM) model to assess the relationship between Oman’s fiscal and trade balances in the short and long-run. The results show that in the short run, Oman’s trade balance and fiscal balance are mostly determined by oil price movements, where both balances respond positively to oil price shocks and negatively to oil price volatility shocks. The trade balance’s response to oil price shocks is quantitatively larger compared to fiscal balance, while fiscal balance’s response to oil price volatility shocks is larger than trade balance. The fiscal balance responds positively and is statistically significant to trade balance shocks, while the responses of the trade balance to the fiscal balance shocks are statistically insignificant. In the long-run, oil price shocks have a statistically significant positive impact on fiscal revenue, exports, and imports. These results provide strong evidence that in Oman, the casual effect runs from the trade balance to the fiscal balance. In comparison, the fiscal balance is more endogenous, and the Omani government is able to adjust the fiscal policy in response to fluctuations in the oil price and trade balance, thus contradicting the traditional twin deficit hypothesis. We argue that for an oil-dependent small open economy, like Oman, policies that help to diversify away from depending heavily on oil revenue would help the economy to absorb international oil price shocks more effectively.
The third essay of the thesis investigates the impact of the global shocks on the Omani economy through trade linkages using the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model. The main objective is to assess the impact of shocks originating from Oman’s main trading partners, namely China, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and the United States. To our knowledge, this is the first study to use the GVAR model to assess shock transmissions to Oman. The GVAR framework allows us to present augmented VAR models that include both domestic and foreign variables such as output, inflation, short-term and long-term interest rates, and exchange rates along with oil price as a global variable. The period of study is from 1989Q4 to 2016Q4. The GVAR model enables us to carry out a rich analysis of the direct and indirect impact of shocks from Oman’s trading partners on its real GDP, petroleum GDP, and non-petroleum GDP. In addition, the use of different trade weights enables us to account for the changing trade patterns over time. The empirical results highlight that any unexpected shocks originating from East Asian economies will have a significant impact on the Omani economy. The impact of China is growing over time and currently has the largest effect, while the impact of Japan is declining. In general, the impact of the United States is modest and similar across times. The trade concentration and over-reliance on a particular destination and commodity could be risky for Oman and thus the Omani government should consider diversifying its trade relation and the composite of products that it exports.
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Mohottala, Arjuna Wickramachchi. "Economic Adjustment in Small Open Economies to External Shocks Arising from the Carry Trade, Trade Liberalisation and Remittance Flows." Phd thesis, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/117068.
Full textAbstract:
In recent years the vulnerability of both advanced and emerging small open economies to external shocks has attracted significant attention. Among these types of shocks, three shocks emanating from sudden movements of exchange rates, financial flows such as workers' remittances and trade liberalisation are identified to be of particular importance. This thesis is composed of three independent essays that investigate the macroeconomic impacts on small open economies from these three shocks spanning two geographic locations. First, Chapter 2, explores the macroeconomic effects of the unwinding of the carry trade using the example of the JPY/AUD carry trade and the Australia's macroeconomy. A nonlinear threshold VAR model was used to capture the asymmetric effects of normal sized and large shocks to capturing the unwinding of the carry trade. The results show that in a high pressure regime where it is likely for the carry trade to unwind, a fall in Australia's relative interest rate, combined with a reduction in commodity prices lead the economy to favourably respond to a fall in commodity prices, boosting Australia's production. This result confirms that the carry trade collapse and subsequent stimulus to exports was beneficial to Australia's growth when international financial markets were at their most stressed. Chapter 3 presents evidence on whether two regional trade agreements (RTAs) in South Asia, the South Asian Preferential Trading Arrangement (SAPTA) and the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) have bolstered intra-regional exports. The results suggest that the two RTAs have not had a significant impact on the region as a whole. SAPTA has not had any significant effect on intra-regional exports except for Bhutan which experienced a reduction in of export growth to the region. SAFTA has failed to have any significant impact on any of the partner countries. In contrast, the results show a different picture for country specific bilateral export growth. Almost all countries have had mixed fortunes in their bilateral export growth in adopting the two RTAs. Notwithstanding, post-2006, intra-regional exports have significantly benefitted from openness to trade and a reduction in overall tariff levels of South Asian partner countries. Chapter 4 investigates whether the steady inflow of workers' remittances to South Asia have resulted in an appreciation in the respective country's real effective exchange rate (REER), working through data since 1980. In addition, the research examines the factors contributing to the remittance flows into South Asia. The results show that income differentials have played a key role in the country-specific determinants of remittance flows. While mixed reactions to the real interest rate differentials were observed across the South Asian countries, an appreciation of the nominal exchange rates has continued to attract remittance flows to India, the Maldives and Pakistan.
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Puttnerová, Marie. "Global and regional shocks in the European integration process." Master's thesis, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-91762.
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Medina, Quispe Pamela Milagros. "Essays in Firm Responses to Demand and Competition Shocks." Diss., 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10161/12904.
Full textAbstract:
The aim of this dissertation is to examine, model and estimate firm responses to
demand shocks by focusing on specific industries where demand shocks are well
identified. Combining reduced-form evidence and structural analysis, this dissertation
extends the economic literature by focusing on within-firm responses of firms
to two important demand shocks that are identifiable in empirical settings. First,
I focus on how firms respond to a decrease in effective demand due to competition
shocks coming from globalization. By considering China's accession to the World
Trade Organization in 2001 and its impact on the apparel industry, the aim of these
chapters is to answer how firms react to the increase in Chinese import competition,
what is the mechanism behind these responses, and how important they are in explaining
the survival of the Peruvian apparel industry. Second, I study how suppliers'
survival probability relates to the sudden disruption of their main customer-supplier
relationships with downstream manufacturers, conditional on suppliers' own idiosyncratic
characteristics such as physical productivity.
Dissertation
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Zhu, Shushuai. "Effects of economic shocks, trade liberalization, and recycling polices on the global forest sector /." 2001. http://www.library.wisc.edu/databases/connect/dissertations.html.
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Khan, F. "Essays on the transmission of international shocks in east Asian economies." Thesis, 2021. https://eprints.utas.edu.au/37935/1/Khan_whole_thesis.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
Growing economic integration and trade liberalization have increased economic openness and created interdependencies among various regions and economies. These developments changed the structure of global trade over time, along with the significance of channels through which economic shocks permeate globally. Over the last 20 years, the transmission mechanisms have widely evolved due to prominent changes in trade patterns between Asia and the rest of the world. The evolution of economic linkages across emerging Asian economies is prominent and has gained global importance due to its widespread implications for global markets.
Therefore, there is a growing interest in modelling the changing influence of economic shocks emanating from major economies in the Asian region. However, due to rapidly changing policies, economic landscapes and short data samples, modelling the macroeconomic relationships in the small open economies of Asia is complex and provides significant limitations for implementing traditional econometric frameworks. This dissertation consists of three distinct essays that attempt to illustrate the evolution of international transmission mechanisms.
In the first essay, we investigate the effects of the increasing importance of ASEAN-4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) and NIE-4 (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) economies in global trade for the transmission of shocks using a structural VAR framework. We specifically account for time variation, using the changing trade links to provide a means of identifying the propagation of economic shocks and spillovers across the US, EU and the Asia Pacific economies from 1978-2015. We analyse the evolution of changing trade patterns on the direct and indirect effects of a shock via fluctuations of output growth in the major trading partners of ASEAN-4 and NIE-4. The results show evidence of China’s emergence as a major driver of growth in Asian markets.
The identification mechanism highlights the relative importance of changing trade relationships versus changing shocks in propagating shocks between global markets and the selected Asian economies. The results show that the international transmission mechanisms have changed substantially over the sample period.
Understanding fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates is fundamental in understanding the dynamics of business cycles for decision making. Particularly, due to the changing nature of economic and financial linkages in global markets, it is important to assess the implications of global and regional shocks on cyclic movements across emerging Asian economies. Therefore, in the second essay we examine the degree of business cycle fluctuations across emerging Asian countries and the growth driver (G4) economies namely US, EU, Japan and China. We adopt a multilateral latent factor model to study the time-varying nature of common world components in macroeconomic aggregates (output, exchange rate, inflation and interest rate) in a set of 14 countries over the period 1979-2018. The dynamic latent factor model enables us to examine the commonalities in economic activity across emerging Asian markets and the G4 in synchrony across the fundamental macroeconomic aggregates. We focus on the changing role of the world, region and country-specific factors to explain international business cycle synchrony across Asian economies. We assess the significance of each component over seven distinct time periods, to illustrate their dynamic features in determining the cyclical movements of fundamental macro-aggregates. Our findings illustrate the increasing importance of a common world factor in determining fluctuations in the aggregates in most of the sample economies. In addition, the results show that the volatility in economic activity attributable to region-specific factors is not significant in most cases. More specifically, we observe a decline in the regional volatility for most of emerging Asian countries in output, exchange rate and interest rate; however, there is a little evidence of inflation synchrony in ASEAN economies over time.
We find that the cyclical output movements in both the G4 and emerging Asian economies have become more synchronised over the period 2000-2018. On average, the common world factor accounted for 48% of the variation in the output growth of ASEAN and NIE regions. Similarly, the contribution of the common component to inflation and exchange rate have become more pronounced for most of the sample economies over time. In addition, more than 50% of the variation in the interest rate is attributed to a common shock in advanced countries except for the US, whereas for the Asian region it has only increased for Malaysia, Thailand and Korea in the past 20 years.
In the third and final essay, we assess how economic and financial shocks propagate across small open East Asian economies during the post liberalization period. We examine the evolution of economic shocks across the NIE and ASEAN regions for the period 1980-2016, effectively linking the sample economies in a global framework. We demonstrate the implications of international shocks with alternative trade weights, incorporating the shift in global economic patterns over the past two decades. The approach specifically allows us to examine how responses of the NIE and ASEAN regions to exogenous shocks have altered over time. We find that the influence of Chinese-generated shocks on the Asian markets has magnified, while those of the EA and Japan have declined over time. Our findings indicate that the US economy is still the most important growth driver of Asian markets, but its influence is reducing slowly over time. We also analyse the dynamic responses of the ASEAN-4 and NIE-4 economies to a global oil price shock, the US interest rate and equity price shock. The results emphasize the changing role of economic and financial channels in the transmission mechanism of shocks across emerging Asia.
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Agarwal, Vishesh. "The effects of political shocks on international trade: evidence from China and major partners, 1998-2018." Phd thesis, 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/264611.
Full textAbstract:
The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of political cooperation and conflict between countries on international trade in the context of China's rapid emergence as a global economic and trading power. The study develops a game-theoretical framework in which a bi-directional relationship exists between trade and conflict. The theoretical framework is used as a basis to identify the short- and long-term effects of moderate shocks in political conflict on merchandise goods trade between China and major trading partners between 1998-2018 using vector-auto-regression (VAR) models. The analysis is complemented by an examination of the effects of political shocks on trade disaggregated by product-type. The results suggest that although trade ties are not independent of conflict, they have not been affected by conflict significantly in this period, and the effects of political conflict on trade vary by product-type. The maintenance of a combination of healthy trade and low levels of conflict requires continued rules-based engagement between China and its trading partners to mitigate the extent to which political conflict has spill over consequences on trade ties.
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Αναστασίου, Αθανάσιος. "Οικονομική και Νομισματική Ένωση (ΟΝΕ) και μακροοικονομική προσαρμογή στις χώρες-μέλη της Ε.Ε." Thesis, 2009. http://nemertes.lis.upatras.gr/jspui/handle/10889/2826.
Full textAbstract:
Σκοπός της διατριβής είναι να εξετάσει θέματα που άπτονται της Οικονομικής και Νομισματικής Ένωσης (ΟΝΕ).
Στο πρώτο κεφάλαιο, αρχικά, παρουσιάζουμε την θεωρητική και εμπειρική βιβλιογραφία που έχει αναπτυχθεί πάνω στο θέμα της ανεξαρτησίας των Κεντρικών Τραπεζών και ποιοι παράγοντες επηρεάζουν τη σχέση της με το πραγματικό προϊόν, την απασχόληση και τον πληθωρισμό και γίνεται αναφορά των επιχειρημάτων που απορρέουν μέσα από αυτές.
Στο δεύτερο κεφάλαιο, αρχικά επιχειρούμε να μελετήσουμε τις στρατηγικές αλληλεξαρτήσεις μεταξύ των φορέων άσκησης νομισματικής και δημοσιονομικής πολιτικής μέσα σε μια νομισματική ένωση κάτω από διαφορετικά θεσμικά καθεστώτα, και στη συνέχεια εξετάζουμε το ρόλο των ασυμμετριών στις διαταραχές καθώς η νομισματική πολιτική μέσα σε μια νομισματική ένωση έχει σταθεροποιητικές επιδράσεις μόνο σε αθροιστικές μεταβλητές. Το τρίτο κεφάλαιο εστιάζεται στην διευρυμένη Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση (ΕΕ) και ειδικότερα επιχειρούμε να μελετήσουμε το βαθμό ετερογένειας ανάμεσα στις οικονομίες των 27 χωρών-μελών. Επίσης εξετάζουμε τον βαθμό συγχρονισμού των οικονομικών τους κύκλων και τη συμμετρία των διαταραχών. Ο βαθμός ετερογένειας μετριέται με βάση συντελεστές Theil, ενώ χρησιμοποιούμε στοιχεία τόσο για το συνολικό χρονικό διάστημα 1995.1-2005.4 όσο και για δύο επιμέρους περιόδους, 1995.1-2000.4 και 2000.1-2005.4 (προ και μετά την υιοθέτηση του ενιαίου νομίσματος). Για τη μέτρηση του βαθμού συμμετρίας των μακροοικονομικών διαταραχών μεταξύ των χωρών-μελών στην ΕΕ-27 χρησιμοποιούμε μεθοδολογία SVAR διαχωρίζοντας τις διαταραχές σε διαταραχές ζήτησης και διαταραχές προσφοράς.Στο τέταρτο κεφάλαιο εξετάζουμε τη σχέση μεταξύ συμμετρίας των μακροοικονομικών διαταραχών και ενοποίησης του εμπορίου, είτε όταν αυτή αφορά το συνολικό εμπόριο είτε όταν αφορά το ενδοκλαδικό εμπόριο χρησιμοποιώντας στοιχεία για την περίοδο 1995q1-2005q4. Η ένταση του συνολικού εμπορίου μεταξύ δύο χωρών μετριέται ως ο λόγος του αθροίσματος των διμερών εξαγωγών και εισαγωγών προς το άθροισμα των συνολικών εισαγωγών και εξαγωγών των εν λόγω χωρών, ενώ για το ενδοκλαδικό εμπόριο υπολογίζουμε δείκτες Grubel-Lloyd.The purpose of the thesis is to examine issues related to European Monetary Union (EMU). Firstly, in Chapter one we present the analytical and empirical literature which has been developed on Central Bank Independence issue and the factors that affect its relationship with real output, employment and inflation. In Chapter two, we study the structural interdependencies between the monetary and fiscal authorities in a monetary union under different regimes, and also we examine the role of shock asymmetries as monetary policy in a monetary union has stabilized effects only on aggregated variables. The third Chapter focuses on the enlarged European Union (E.U.) and specifically we study the degree of heterogeneity among the 27 member-countries. Also, we examine the degree of business cycle synchronization and the shock symmetry. The degree of heterogeneity is measured by Theil coefficients, and we use data not only for the period 1995.1-2005.4 but also for the two sub-periods 1995.1-2000.4 και 2000.1-2005.4 (pre and post the circulation of single currency). We use the SVAR methodology in order to measure the degree of macroeconomic shocks among the EU-27 member-states by separating shocks in demand and supply shocks. In Chapter four we examine the relationship between shock symmetry and trade integration, either it is related to total trade either to intra-industry trade by using data for the period 1995q1-2005q4. The trade intensity between two countries is measured as the ratio of the sum of imports and exports to the sum of total exports and imports of two countries, while we take the Grubel-Lloyd indexes to measure the intra-industry trade.
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Gruen, David William Roy. "Macroeconomic adjustment to external shocks : essays on the behaviour of individuals and markets." Phd thesis, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/128762.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis consists of three distinct sections. The first two sections
present theoretical models of the response of private agents to an
unanticipated terms of trade shock and to changes in government net
saving, respectively. The third section examines the joint behaviour of
interest rates and the exchange rate. The link between the sections is that
they were all motivated by the response of the Australian macro economy
to the 1985/86 adverse terms of trade shock, and by the government's
reaction to that shock.
The first section of the thesis (Chapter Two) analyses the impact on the
current account of a permanent terms of trade deterioration in a model in
which an immortal intertemporally optimizing household is assumed to
exhibit an explicit sensitivity to falling consumption levels. When the
household is sufficiently sensitive, it is optimal for its consumption to be
continuous over time and then the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect
holds, i.e., following the trade shock, the current account deteriorates. It
is argued that this model is more realistic than earlier models which
predict a current account improvement in response to a permanent
adverse trade shock.
The second section of the thesis consists of two sub-sections which are both
concerned with the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis. The first subsection
(Chapter Three) reports the results of two surveys. Over six
hundred economics students were asked to estimate the level of
outstanding Australian Federal government debt, and eleven academic
economists were asked to predict the proportion of students with 'a rough
idea of the amount of this debt' (in a sense defined precisely). Student
knowledge is very meagre and the average academic overestimates it fivefold. The relevance of these results for the Ricardian equivalence
hypothesis is discussed.
The second sub-section (Chapter Four) develops a model of an immortal,
intertemporally optimizing consumer who is ignorant of the link between
bonds and future taxes. The consumer is exposed either to the changing
level of Federal government debt in Australia or in the U.S. over the
twenty five years, 1963 - 1987. "Best" estimates of the cost of ignorance are
about $A2 per annum for an Australian consumer or about $7 per annum
for a U.S. consumer - i.e., less than 0.1% of annual income in both
instances. When uncertainty about future income and the existence of
progressive taxes are included in the model, these estimates are
substantially reduced - even from this 0.1% level. It may therefore be
optimal for consumers to ignore the link between bonds and future taxes.
The final section of the thesis (Chapter Five) examines the large shortterm
real interest differential between Australia and the US since late
1984. The chapter provides a detailed examination of an arbitrage
condition for a representative US investor. There is some evidence for a
risk premium until late 1985. The chapter also examines the possibilities
that either the foreign exchange market is inefficient or that the market
has continually and rationally expected real depreciation of the $A, but
that such depreciation has not yet occured.
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Peluffo, Cecilia. "Costos de movilidad intersectorial del empleo, shocks comerciales y tecnológicos: resultados para Argentina en base a un modelo estructural." Tesis, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10915/31767.
Full textAbstract:
A partir de un modelo de ajuste dinámico en el mercado laboral se estiman costos de movilidad intersectorial del empleo para Argentina durante el período 1996-2009, siguiendo la metodología desarrollada en Artuç, Chaudhuri and McLaren (2010). Considerando los parámetros estimados se computan simulaciones para evaluar el impacto potencial de shocks comerciales y tecnológicos sobre la asignación sectorial del empleo, los salarios sectoriales y el bienestar de los trabajadores. Nuestros resultados indican la presencia de altos costos de ajuste en el empleo, lo que implica un ajuste lento en el mercado de trabajo como respuesta a shocks tecnológicos y comerciales. Encontramos que los costos son mayores para los trabajadores no calificados respecto de los trabajadores semi calificados, no difieren entre el sector del país que comprende al Gran Buenos Aires y la Región pampeana respecto al resto del país y presentan una estructura sectorial similar a la hallada por Artuç et al. (2010) para Estados Unidos.This paper estimates workers’ intersectoral switching costs based on a dynamic model of labor adjustment using data for Argentina (1996-2009). The estimated parameters are incorporated into a neoclassical model of trade to simulate the dynamic equilibrium impact (on welfare, wages and labor allocation) of trade shocks and technological changes. The approach used in this paper follows the method developed in Artuç, Chaudhuri and McLaren (2010). Our estimates show that Argentinian workers face high average intersectoral adjustment costs. This result suggests that the adjustment of the labor market in response to shocks is slow.