Relevant bibliographies by topics / Trade shock

Academic literature on the topic 'Trade shock'

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Published: 10 December 2022
Last updated: 10 March 2023

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Journal articles on the topic "Trade shock"

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Lee, Sin Yee, Zulkefly Abdul Karim, Norlin Khalid, and Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi. "The Spillover Effects of Chinese Shocks on the Belt and Road Initiative Economies: New Evidence Using Panel Vector Autoregression." Mathematics 10, no. 14 (July 11, 2022): 2414. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math10142414.

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This paper investigates the spillover effects of Chinese real and monetary sector shocks on the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) economies. The study adopted a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) estimation technique to analyse the dynamic propagation of Chinese shocks in the real sector (gross domestic product (GDP) and trade openness (OPEN)) and monetary sector (nominal interest rate (NIR)) for a sample of 50 BRI countries from 2000 to 2017. The main results revealed that Chinese income shocks positively spill over to all macroeconomic variables except BRI countries’ consumer price index (CPI). However, the Chinese trade openness shock only has a temporary positive spillover to BRI international trade and a temporary negative spillover on its monetary policy. In addition, the Chinese monetary policy shock has a negative spillover on GDP and a positive spillover on CPI in BRI economies. Chinese shocks, however, do not constitute a significant source of variation in any interest variable. As explained by the Chinese income shock, the BRI interest rate is the highest percentage of variable variation accumulated over time. Further, the highest variation of Chinese trade shock is BRI trade openness, and lastly, the highest variation of Chinese interest rate shock is CPI in BRI economies. The beggar-thy-neighbour effect may dominate the positive trade effect and is a negative impact of the Chinese shocks. Hence, BRI economies should alleviate the adverse shocks since the upcoming rapid growth from the Chinese has disturbed the BRI economies. Our results reveal the importance of Chinese development on BRI partners’ economies and the significance of Chinese shocks in real and monetary sectors in assisting policymakers in designing international and monetary policy for BRI economies.
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Baek, Jeongho, and Hong-Youl Kim. "Analyzing the Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Trade Balance: New Evidence from Korea-China Trade." Korea International Trade Research Institute 18, no. 4 (August 31, 2022): 111–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.16980/jitc.18.4.202208.111.

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Purpose - The primary contribution of this paper is to investigate the impacts of oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks on three measures of South Korea’s trade balance oil, non-oil, and total trade balance with its top trading partner China. Design/Methodology/Approach - In order to investigate how trade balance is influenced by three types of oil price shocks, we used a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR). Also, Impulse Response Function (IRF) was used to calculate degree of the trade balance response to the oil price shock. Findings - We discover that aggregate demand shocks have the greatest impact on Korea’s trade balances, while oil supply shocks have negligible impacts. Additionally, the overall impact of the three oil shocks on Korea’s trade balances with China appears to rely on the response of the non-oil trade balance. Research Implications - This outcome explains why the roles of the different shock components of crude oil prices should be accounted for when modeling the nexus between oil price shocks and Korea’s balance of trade
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Novy, Dennis, and Alan M. Taylor. "Trade and Uncertainty." Review of Economics and Statistics 102, no. 4 (October 2020): 749–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00885.

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We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the idea of uncertainty shocks with international trade. Firms order inputs from home and foreign suppliers. In response to an uncertainty shock firms disproportionately cut orders of foreign inputs due to higher fixed costs. In the aggregate, this leads to a bigger contraction in international trade flows than in domestic activity, a magnification effect. We confront the model with newly compiled US import and industrial production data. Our results help to explain the Great Trade Collapse of 2008–2009.
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O., Saibu M. "Sectoral Output Responses to Trade Openness, Oil Price and Policy Shocks in Nigeria: A CVAR Approach." Journal of Social and Development Sciences 1, no. 2 (March 15, 2011): 48–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jsds.v1i2.627.

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This study investigated the relative effectiveness of trade and policy shocks on sectoral output growth in a small open Nigerian economy. It is a country-specific, time series study verifies whether there is difference in the effect of sectoral output response to policy shocks in Nigeria. A CVAR model was specified to assess the effects of policy shocks on real aggregate and sectoral output measures. The model included oil price shock and an interactive term of trade openness as measures of supply and external shocks to the economy. The empirical results showed that there was remarkably difference in sectoral output responses to policy distortion. The effects of monetary policy shocks were positive and significant on manufacturing, service and industrial sector while fiscal policy shock was only significant and positive on agricultural output growth. The result further showed that international oil price shock and trade openness had pronounced negative effects on both sectoral and aggregate outputs. In addition, oil and trade openness’ negative effects overwhelmed the positive effects of fiscal and monetary policy shocks. The policy implication of the finding is that the effectiveness of domestic macroeconomic policy is constrained by the external shocks from both oil price and trade openness. Thus, confirming the open economic version of policy ineffectiveness proposition of the New classical macroeconomic in Nigeria
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Sun, Yiping, Chengjun Wu, Xiaoming Zhu, and Pingguan Bian. "China’s Accession to the WTO as a Shock to Residents’ Health—A Difference-in-Difference Approach." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 22 (November 9, 2022): 14728. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192214728.

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The impact of regional trade shocks on population health has been a topic of interest in health economics in recent years. Unfortunately, there are few studies directly discussing the impact of regional trade shocks caused by China’s WTO accession on the health of Chinese residents, which is essential to explore the connection between a country´s opening to international trade and the health of its residents. Taking China’s accession to the WTO as a quasi-natural experiment, based on the micro individual samples of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) from 1993 to 2011, this paper, for the first time, studies the impact of regional tariff uncertainty caused by China’s accession to the WTO on the health of Chinese residents and its mechanisms by adopting the Difference-in-Difference (DID) model. The study finds that compared with the areas initially facing low tariff uncertainty, the areas with high initial tariff uncertainty have a greater negative impact on the health of residents after China acceded to WTO, which means that the trade shock caused damage to the health of residents. After a series of tests on the effectiveness and robustness of DID, this conclusion is still valid. The impact of the trade shock on residents’ health varies with the type of residence, gender, and geographical location, and there is a nonlinear relationship. Further mechanism tests show that the trade shock has worsened the health status of residents through rural migration channels, working hours channels, and pollution emission channels. This study provides micro evidence for objectively evaluating the health effects of trade shock and has important implication for considering the health loss of Chinese residents in the process of trade liberalization.
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Szomolányi, Karol, Martin Lukáčik, and Adriana Lukáčiková. "Impact of Terms-of-Trade on Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Croatia in the Short Run." Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy 63, no. 1 (March 1, 2017): 3–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/ngoe-2017-0001.

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AbstractThe terms-of-trade shocks are not main source of business cycles in three post-communist countries (i.e., Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Croatia). The zero or negative reactions of the trade balance in terms-of-trade positive shocks in the countries exhibit the Obstfeld-Svensson-Razin effect, according to which the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler positive effect on terms-of-trade indicates that the smaller the trade balance, the more persistent the terms-of-trade shock is. The conclusions come from the structural vector autoregressive analysis of the cyclical components of terms-of-trade, trade balance, output, consumption, and investment in three post-communist countries.
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Malhotra, Rohit. "“Asymmetric Export Volatility Shock Behaviour” of Lower Middle Income (LMI) Countries in South East Asia During COVID-19 Pandemic." Transnational Marketing Journal 9, no. 2 (September 13, 2021): 195–218. http://dx.doi.org/10.33182/tmj.v9i2.1559.

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COVID-19 Pandemic still affecting all countries. South Asian economies and that particularly India is no exception. Because of this “uncertainty shock”, India’s GDP has contracted by 3.1percent in the last quarter of 2020. The present empirical work covers broadly the “asymmetric spillover and related noisy shocks” surrounded with trade (export) volatility about LMI nations in “two phases” i.e. in terms of considering the During pandemic phase (DC) the period from April 2019 till June 2020 and Pre-pandemic phase (PC) from April 2013 till November 2020. A comparative trade volatility asymmetries analysis were applied using a nonlinear volatility function i.e. exponential weighted moving average (EWMA), and identification of noisy behaviour after the initial post-recovery for empirical evidence. The empirical findings discovered that there were “extended” non-smooth and noisy “shock propagation” post initial recovery across two phases by the use of VAR and VECM outcomes. Bangladesh and Pakistan were stronger “Noisy shock contributors” while Nepal and Sri Lanka were turned out to be the strongest “Noisy shock receivers”. This “noisy” behaviour implies “uncertainty” and chaos on the international trade front resulting in higherthan expected volatility in trade figures and in-built destabilized momentum in the impulses. The results also relate to the possible opportunities of intra-regional trade convergence as a policy imperative.
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Setiastuti, Sekar Utami. "TIME-VARYING MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY TO A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIA." Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 20, no. 2 (October 31, 2017): 129–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v20i2.809.

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This paper studies macroeconomic impacts of global economic policy uncertainty shocks to a small open economy. To that end, I use monthly Indonesian data along with a measure of global economic policy uncertainty developed by Baker et al. (2016) and Davis (2016) and estimate a time-varying parameter Bayesian structural VAR with non-recursive identification using framework proposed by Canova and Pérez Forero (2015). I find that global economic policy uncertainty shocks lead to a reduction in prices, interest rate, and trade balance in all global events included in the estimation. The impact on output, however, largely varies across events. A surprise movement of global economic policy uncertainty triggers a contraction in output around the 2008 global financial crisis but, following the 2016 US presidential election, output reacts positively to the shock. Despite these notable variations in the responses of output, the proportion of the forecast error variance of output due to the shock is very small and decreases rapidly over time—which indicates that the shock presents an inconsequential effect to output. Nonetheless, the proportion of the forecast error variance of trade balance due to the shock is considerably higher than the forecast error variance of output and inflation. This further suggests that, via international trade, a global economic policy uncertainty shock could still pose harm for Indonesia.
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Di Tella, Rafael, and Dani Rodrik. "Labour Market Shocks and the Demand for Trade Protection: Evidence from Online Surveys." Economic Journal 130, no. 628 (January 22, 2020): 1008–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa006.

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Abstract We study preferences for government action in response to layoffs resulting from different types of labour-market shocks. We consider: technological change, a demand shift, bad management and three kinds of international outsourcing. Support for government intervention rises sharply in response to shocks and is heavily biased towards trade protection. Trade shocks generate more demand for protectionism and, among trade shocks, outsourcing to a developing country elicits greater demand for protectionism. The ‘bad management’ shock is the only scenario that induces a desired increase in compensatory transfers. Trump supporters are more protectionist than Clinton supporters, but preferences seem easy to manipulate: Clinton supporters primed with trade shocks are as protectionist as baseline Trump voters. Highlighting labour abuses in the exporting country increases the demand for trade protection by Clinton supporters but not Trump supporters.
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Yoon, Jai Hyung, and Francis In Yoon. "Terms of Trade, Intermediate Goods and International Real Business Cycles: Australia Case." International Studies Review 5, no. 2 (September 28, 2004): 95–111. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/2667078x-00502006.

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This paper examines whether a two-sector business cycle model with intermediate and import goods successfully replicates stylized facts of the international real business cycle in a small open economy. Our model incorporates the neoclassical framework, with productivity shocks in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, terms of trade shock, import goods and intermediate goods. Our model is able to mimic the important features of business cycles in Australia. The productivity shock of the non-manufacturing sector has a dominant role in a small open economy's business cycle. The productivity shock of the non-manufacturing sector increases imports more than exports.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Trade shock"

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Viaro, Arthur Augusto. "The impact of trade shock exposure on child labor and schooling in Brazil." Universidade de São Paulo, 2017. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12138/tde-26092017-101518/.

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Child labor is still a relevant problem in developing countries and understanding the way that households respond in terms of children\'s time allocation to labor market incentives has relevant policy implications. In this paper, I explore a plausibly exogenous trade-induced labor market shock to assess how changes in returns to work affect children\'s time allocation in Brazil. To provide a good proxy for distinctly exogenous changes to the returns to adult labor as well as returns to the child labor I propose a strategy that distinguish between employment shocks that differentially affect adults and children. The results suggest an asymmetric impact on household decisions about children\'s time allocation that depend upon the source of the shock. First, larger import competition shocks concentrated on adult workers decrease the share of children that attend school, while an adverse shock concentrated on child workers has a positive effect on schooling, but the estimates are not statistically significant. On the other hand, both shocks decrease the share of working children. However, shocks on adults increase idleness, while shocks on children increase full-time schooling. I provide evidence that poverty and employment composition pattern are two possible mechanisms behind the results. I also find that adverse shocks on children have positive effects on math scores in a standardized national exam (Saeb) and stronger effects for children living in rural areas.
Trabalho infantil ainda é um problema relevante nos países em desenvolvimento e entender o modo como as famílias respondem a incentivos no mercado de trabalho decidindo como alocar o tempo das crianças tem importantes implicações em termos de política. Neste trabalho, eu exploro um choque plausivelmente exógeno sobre o mercado de trabalho causado pelo comércio internacional para avaliar como mudanças no retorno do trabalho afetam a alocação de tempo das crianças no Brasil. Para medir mudanças exógenas sobre os retornos do trabalho adulto e infantil, eu proponho uma estratégia que distingue entre choques no emprego que afetam diferentemente adultos e crianças. Os resultados sugerem um efeito assimétrico sobre as decisões das famílias com relação à alocação de tempo das crianças a depender da fonte do choque. Primeiramente, choques de importação sobre os trabalhadores adultos diminuem a proporção de crianças na escola, enquanto choques adversos sobre as crianças que trabalham têm um efeito positivo sobre a escolaridade, mas as estimativas não são estatisticamente significantes. Por outro lado, ambos os choques diminuem a proporção de crianças trabalhando. Entretanto, choques sobre os adultos aumentam a ociosidade, enquanto choques sobre as crianças aumentam a dedicação exclusiva aos estudos. Eu forneço evidências de que a pobreza e a composição do emprego são dois possíveis mecanismos por trás dos resultados. Eu encontro ainda que choques adversos nas crianças possuem efeitos positivos sobre a proficiência em matemática no exame nacional de avaliação do ensino básico (Saeb) e que os efeitos são mais fortes em crianças que moram nas áreas rurais
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Dahan, Victor Barbosa. "Does trade credit respond to negative shocks to customer firms?" reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/22980.

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Submitted by Victor Dahan (victordahan@gmail.com) on 2018-04-27T18:12:07Z No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertaçao victor dahan.pdf: 830090 bytes, checksum: abd452449e803a9e167656fbab4240bf (MD5)
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We investigate how the provision of trade credit by suppliers reacts when their customer firms suffer an adverse shock. We exploit an exogenous adverse shock to firms in the Brazilian food industry caused by the public announcement of a fraud investigation named Operation Weak Flesh. Using a within-firm differences-in-differences identification strategy, we found that customers suffered a negative impact of around 20 to 30% in their accounts payable, while suppliers reduced their credit provision by around 5 to 6%. The evidence suggests that suppliers would rather shield themselves against increased risks in the supply chain than try to save their customers and their relationship with them.
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Taylor, Paul. "Responding to the shock of the new : trade, technology, and the changing production axis in film, television, and new media /." Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 1998. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/6202.

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Choe, Kwang Yoon. "Differential impacts of oil price shock on small vs. large firms as a source of real effect on the economy /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 2002. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p3060091.

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OLIVEIRA, SARA BROLHATO DE. "FIRM DYNAMICS IN BRAZIL: TRADE SHOCKS, RESOURCE MISALLOCATION AND LIFE CYCLE GROWTH." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2018. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=36197@1.

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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO
COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR
CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO
FUNDAÇÃO DE APOIO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DO RIO DE JANEIRO
PROGRAMA DE SUPORTE À PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO DE INSTS. DE ENSINO
BOLSA NOTA 10
Esta tese contém três ensaios sobre dinâmica de firmas. O primeiro ensaio avalia os efeitos de choques de oferta e demanda sobre a dinâmica de firmas e seleção no Brasil. Exploramos o fato de que o crescimento recente da China não apenas aumentou o nível de competição via importações, mas também aumentou a demanda por exportações de bens primários, um fator especialmente relevante para países em desenvolvimento. Nossos resultados mostram que firmas afetadas pelo aumento de competição proveniente de importações chinesas apresentam um aumento na probabilidade de sair do mercado, enquanto firmas em indústrias beneficiadas pela demanda por exportações para a China têm uma menor probabilidade de saída. Em ambos os casos, esses efeitos estão concentrados em firmas com um menor número de trabalhadores. O segundo ensaio descreve a relação entre a má alocação de energia e a má alocação de recursos no setor de manufaturas brasileiro, e quantifica em que medida distorções que afetam o uso eficiente de energia resultam em perdas de produto agregado. Nós encontramos que as duas medidas de má alocação são positivamente relacionadas nos setores, sugerindo que a energia é um importante componente da eficiência alocativa de recursos. Nós mostramos que a realocação de recursos entre firmas de um mesmo setor levaria a ganhos agregados significativos. Entretanto, distorções de capital são responsáveis pela maior parte dos ganhos potenciais pela realocação de recursos. O terceiro ensaio compara a dinâmica do ciclo de vida em manufaturas e serviços e encontra que o crescimento ao longo do ciclo de vida é menor para firmas do setor de serviços, mesmo controlando pelo seu tamanho inicial. Nós mostramos que esse menor crescimento ocorre devido ao padrão de seleção e à fraca relação existente entre produtividade e tamanho das firmas em serviços. Finalmente, nós investigamos o papel de duas possíveis explicações para os resultados encontrados: distorções relacionadas ao ciclo de vida e custos de monitoramento.
This thesis consists of three essays on firm dynamics. The first essay evaluates the effects of supply and demand shocks on firm dynamics and selection in Brazil. We explore the fact that China’s recent growth has led not only to an increase in import competition, but also to higher export demand for commodities, which is especially relevant in developing countries. We find that firms facing greater competition from Chinese imports suffer from an increase in exit probability, while firms in industries benefiting from increased export demand have lower probability of exit. In both cases, these effects are concentrated among smaller firms. In the second article, we describe the relationship between energy misallocation and resource misallocation across manufacturing industries in Brazil, and quantify the extent to which distortions affecting energy use result in output losses at the aggregate level. We find that these two measures of misallocation are positively related across industries, which suggests that energy is an important component of resource allocation efficiency. We show that reallocating resources between firms would result in substantial aggregate output gains. However, capital distortions account for most of the potential gains in manufacturing from reallocating resources between firms. The third essay compares firm life cycle dynamics in manufacturing and services, and finds that life-cycle growth is slower for service firms, even when controlling for initial size. We show that this result arises because of the selection pattern and weaker relationship between productivity and size in service industries. Finally, we assess the role of two potential explanations for these results: age-related distortions and monitoring costs.
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Lombardo, Giovanni. "Monopolistics distortion and the real effects of monetary shocks." Thesis, University of York, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.323504.

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Liu, Xinman. "Trade linkages and growth in South Africa: an SVAR analysis." Master's thesis, Faculty of Commerce, 2019. https://hdl.handle.net/11427/31614.

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This paper investigates the vulnerability of South Africa to the shocks that originate from its major trading partners over time using a structural vector autoregressive framework. We examine the impact of shocks emanating from the EU, the US, China, Japan, India and Brazil on South Africa’s output growth through both direct and indirect trade linkages, by considering the changing trade patterns from 1996 to 2017. The results suggest that the South African economy has become more integrated with emerging economies. Furthermore, China has increased its impact on the output growth of the other sample economies through trade linkages, which implies that developments in China are of increasing importance to other economies. The US and the EU are still dominated in propagating shocks despite their declining impact on the output growth of other economies in this sample.
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Tsheko, B. O. "Analysing the impact of international trade policy shocks on the economy of Botswana." Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.493364.

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Pinat, Magali. "Global linkages, trade network and development." Thesis, Paris 1, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PA01E031/document.

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Cette thèse doctorale étudie l’impact des effets de réseau sur le commerce et la finance internationale. Le premier chapitre évalue le rôle que joue la centralité des partenaires commerciaux dans la diffusion des connaissances et conclut que l’importation de biens provenant de partenaires situés au cœur du réseau est génératrice de croissance économique. Le deuxième chapitre étudie le rôle des communautés de commerce dans la vitesse d’adoption de nouvelles technologies et établit que la diffusion des idées est encouragée au sein des pays appartenant à la même communauté. Le troisième chapitre souligne le rôle que jouent les partenaires financiers dans le choix d’investir dans une nouvelle destination et montre que les pays sont plus susceptibles d’investir dans un nouveau pays si un de leurs partenaires actuels y a déjà investi. Le quatrième chapitre évalue l’impact de l’importation des produits à risque et estime qu’une augmentation d’un pourcent des importations de produits fragiles provenant d’un pays touché par une catastrophe naturelle est associée à une réduction de 0,7 pourcent des exportations nationales
This doctoral dissertation investigates the impact of networks effects on international trade and finance. The first chapter estimates the role a trade partners’ centrality plays in the diffusion of knowledge and finds that importing from countries at the core of the network leads to a significant increase in economic growth. The second chapter investigates the role of clusters in the speed of technology adoption and concludes that the diffusion of ideas is fostered among countries belonging to the same cluster. The third chapter emphasizes the role of current partners in choosing a destination for new investments and finds that countries are more likely to invest in a new destination if one of their existing partners have already made some investments in the location. The fourth chapter evaluates the impact of importing risky products on the economy and finds that the elasticity of a country’s exports with respect to its import share of fragile products from a partner impacted by a natural disaster is -0.7 percent
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Mendis, Chandima. "Monetary consequences of terms of trade shocks and capital flows in small open economics." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.365576.

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Books on the topic "Trade shock"

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Rhodes, Ron. Oil shock. Eugene, Or: Harvest House Publishers, 2010.

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Raghavan, Mala, Faisal Khan, and Evelyn S. Devadason. China and ASEAN: Pivoting Trade and Shock Transmission. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-1618-1.

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Lower, Milton D. Industrial import shock: Staff report. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 1985.

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Karlsson, Christer. High rate innovation: Japanese culture shock to Europe. Brussels: European Institute For Advanced Studies in Management, 1988.

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Enrico, Labriola, ed. Petrolio shock: La crisi energetica dalle guerre di Bush alla polveriera iraniana. Roma: Castelvecchi, 2009.

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Catania, Gabriele. Petrolio shock: La crisi energetica dalle guerre di Bush alla polveriera iraniana. Roma: Castelvecchi, 2009.

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Fund, International Monetary, ed. Shock versus gradualism in models of rational expectations: The case of trade liberalization. Washington, D.C: International Monetary Fund, 1997.

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Cha, Baekin. Dynamic effects of a terms-of-trade shock on a small open economy. Kowloon, Hong Kong: City Polytechnic of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, 1993.

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Kanovsky, Eliyahu. Another oil shock in the 1990's?: A dissenting view. Washington, D.C: Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1987.

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Commission, United States International Trade. Shock absorbers and parts, components, and subassemblies thereof from Brazil: Determination of the Commission in investigation no. 731-TA-421 (preliminary) under the Tariff act of 1930, together with the information obtained in the investigation. Washington, D.C: U.S. International Trade Commission, 1988.

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Book chapters on the topic "Trade shock"

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Mokhtarzadeh, Fatemeh. "A global vector autoregression model for softwood lumber trade." In International trade in forest products: lumber trade disputes, models and examples, 174–93. Wallingford: CABI, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781789248234.0174.

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Abstract A novel econometric approach is developed in this chapter, namely, the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model. It provides a comprehensive framework for analyzing the country-level impacts of various domestic, foreign, and/or global shocks on softwood lumber trade. The GVAR approach is applied to Canada-U.S. trade in softwood lumber and used to analyze the effect of external shocks on Canadian lumber prices. Findings indicate that Canada's export prices are positively correlated to U.S. housing starts and real GDP. Further, using impulse response functions, it is used to examine the effects on regional lumber export prices in Canada of: (1) a change in U.S. housing starts; (2) a reduction in U.S. GDP by one standard deviation; (3) a COVID-19 induced decline in U.S. GDP (of three standard deviations); (4) an increase in global oil prices; and, in the Appendix, (5) an increase in the long-term interest rate. Price impacts vary a great deal by Canadian region depending on the type of shock, with the propagation mechanism in Alberta significantly different from that in other regions. For example, with an oil price shock and because Alberta is a major exporter of oil, the lumber export price remains high even as the shock dissipates over time.
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Mokhtarzadeh, Fatemeh. "A global vector autoregression model for softwood lumber trade." In International trade in forest products: lumber trade disputes, models and examples, 174–93. Wallingford: CABI, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781789248234.0008.

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Abstract A novel econometric approach is developed in this chapter, namely, the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model. It provides a comprehensive framework for analyzing the country-level impacts of various domestic, foreign, and/or global shocks on softwood lumber trade. The GVAR approach is applied to Canada-U.S. trade in softwood lumber and used to analyze the effect of external shocks on Canadian lumber prices. Findings indicate that Canada's export prices are positively correlated to U.S. housing starts and real GDP. Further, using impulse response functions, it is used to examine the effects on regional lumber export prices in Canada of: (1) a change in U.S. housing starts; (2) a reduction in U.S. GDP by one standard deviation; (3) a COVID-19 induced decline in U.S. GDP (of three standard deviations); (4) an increase in global oil prices; and, in the Appendix, (5) an increase in the long-term interest rate. Price impacts vary a great deal by Canadian region depending on the type of shock, with the propagation mechanism in Alberta significantly different from that in other regions. For example, with an oil price shock and because Alberta is a major exporter of oil, the lumber export price remains high even as the shock dissipates over time.
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Ioannou, Gregoris. "Cyprus. Shock and Resilience." In Employment, Trade Unionism, and Class, 94–115. New York: Routledge, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780429031168-5-7.

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Raghavan, Mala, Faisal Khan, and Evelyn S. Devadason. "Interdependent Trade Relationship." In China and ASEAN: Pivoting Trade and Shock Transmission, 9–22. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-1618-1_2.

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Raghavan, Mala, Faisal Khan, and Evelyn S. Devadason. "Trade Shocks and Resiliency." In China and ASEAN: Pivoting Trade and Shock Transmission, 23–61. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-1618-1_3.

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Raghavan, Mala, Faisal Khan, and Evelyn S. Devadason. "China in ASEAN." In China and ASEAN: Pivoting Trade and Shock Transmission, 1–7. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-1618-1_1.

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Raghavan, Mala, Faisal Khan, and Evelyn S. Devadason. "Vulnerability of the Food Sector." In China and ASEAN: Pivoting Trade and Shock Transmission, 63–89. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-1618-1_4.

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Raghavan, Mala, Faisal Khan, and Evelyn S. Devadason. "Conclusion." In China and ASEAN: Pivoting Trade and Shock Transmission, 91–98. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-1618-1_5.

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Argy, Victor E. "Policy design in the face of a terms of trade shock." In The International Adjustment Process, 151–75. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-0871-0_10.

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Splinter, Melody, and Jeroen Klomp. "Do Sanctions Cause Economic Growth Collapses?" In NL ARMS, 115–32. The Hague: T.M.C. Asser Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-6265-471-6_7.

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AbstractThis chapter explores whether economic sanctions are able to trigger sudden economic growth collapses. The primarily aim of economic sanctions is to cause a political or behavioural change by imposing serious restrictions on important economic activities undertaken by the target country. In particular, the basic idea is that sanctions cause a large adverse and sudden shock to the target’s economy. It assumes that when this shock is severe enough, the target country is more willing to cooperate. The findings reported in this chapter clearly demonstrate that economic sanctions have a significant positive effect on the likelihood of a growth deceleration in the first three years after the first threat signals or actual imposition. It turns out that not all sanctions are equally successful in creating a sudden economic shock. In particular, trade sanctions, multilateral sanctions, and sanctions aimed at the business sector are the most harmful for the economy of the target country.
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Conference papers on the topic "Trade shock"

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Algan, Neşe, Harun Bal, and Koray Yıldırım. "Foreign Trade and Hysteresis Effect: An Essay on Foreign Trade Flows in the Turkish Economy." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c14.02634.

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There is a wide literature that temporary shocks in real exchange rates and volatility will cause structural breaks in foreign trade. As a result of temporary shocks in real exchange rates, the real exchange rate elasticity of imports decreases. The decrease in the sensitivity of the import volume to real exchange rates and the failure to return to its former levels after the temporary shock is expressed as the hysteresis situation. In case the exchange rates return to their previous levels after the temporary shock, the main dynamic of hysteresis is that the firms exhibit the behavior of staying in the market due to sunk costs. In the study, foreign trade flows in the Turkish economy were analyzed for the period 2003Q1-2021Q2 by using the asymmetry hypothesis in order to test the hysteresis effects. According to the findings obtained from the asymmetry hypothesis, the absence of a decrease in the import volume during the period of depreciation of the domestic currency indicates the existence of the hysteresis effect. The fact that the firms exhibited the behavior of staying in the market in exchange rate depreciation in the Turkish economy means that sunk costs are extremely effective in hysteresis. Based on this information, as a solution to the hysteresis effects in foreign trade flows in the Turkish economy at the point of policymaking, reducing the sunk costs in market entry to reasonable levels and ensuring stability in exchange rates come to the fore as suggestions in terms of hysteresis.
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Olsman, Noah, Carmen Amo Alonso, and John C. Doyle. "Architecture and Trade-offs in the Heat Shock Response System." In 2018 IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC). IEEE, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/cdc.2018.8619129.

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Jia, Qingwei, Guoxiao Guo, and Jie Yu. "Position-Error-Based Shock Protection in HDDs." In ASME 2013 Conference on Information Storage and Processing Systems. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/isps2013-2911.

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This paper studies off-track write protection in HDDs. The system data integrity requirement is formulated based on the head/media and data track pitch configurations and a servo-mechanical system track misregistration (TMR) under various conditions. A write fault protection scheme is formulated based on position estimation through the current and predicted future PES (position error signal). The write fault trigger threshold determination and its impact on the system trade-offs are qualitatively discussed. The shock protection method applies to both conventional magnetic recording (CMR) and shingled magnetic recording (SMR).
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Henmi, Hiroki, and Susumu Kobayashi. "Oblique Shock Reflection Over a Soft Reflecting Surface." In ASME 2017 Fluids Engineering Division Summer Meeting. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/fedsm2017-69502.

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In this study, we conducted experiments using a shock tube to investigate how the thickness of soft reflecting material affects the reflected shock wave of oblique shock reflection. Results indicated that transition to Mach reflection (MR) is delayed when the reflecting surface is silicone, compared with that when the surface is rigid. Regarding the influence of reflecting material thickness, no remarkable difference was observed between 1mm and 10mm thickness, due to the trade-off of reflecting wedge angle and material thickness. No significant difference was observed regarding the influence of silicone on wave configuration.
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Aşık, Bekir. "The Effects of Structural Shocks on Turkish Economy." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c05.01165.

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This paper investigates the role of the real business cycle dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with different shocks for a small open economy. The main goal of this study is to compare the effects of different structural shocks on the macroeconomic fluctuations of Turkey. Different types of shocks are employed, such as temporary shocks, trend growth shocks, and world interest rate shock as driving forces. In addition to investigating the effects of different shocks, we consider the effects of working capital requirements and spread as friction. Variance decompositions are computed to assess the role of shocks in macroeconomic fluctuations. I fit the model to the data using Bayesian techniques to determine which shock has the most impact on the business cycles of Turkish economy over the period from the first quarter of 1988 to the last quarter of 2012. The main findings are: (1) output, consumption, and investment growth are mostly driven by the trend growth shocks and temporary shocks are less important. (2) Trade balance growth are driven by world interest rate shocks. (3) Real business model is not successful to replicate the some of the key features of economic fluctuations.
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BARVE, SUKRATU, RAJNEESH SHARMA, AMOLKUMAR BHOYAR, P. N. VERMA, and K. D. DHOTE. "WAVE FRONT CAPTURING USING DETONATION SHOCK DYNAMICS." In 32ND INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON BALLISTICS. Destech Publications, Inc., 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.12783/ballistics22/36057.

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High fidelity fluid dynamics based combustion models for reactive media can be implemented by way of simulations but require significantly large CPU effort. The Detonation Shock Dynamics (DSD) models offer a simpler alternative. The challenge presented while implementing DSD equations is mostly computational. Accuracy, simulation time and spatial resolution considerations turn out to counteract each other and a tradeoff is necessitated. We present simulation results obtained for a single detonation point using the level set method for DSD and describe an example of such a trade-off. We demonstrate that curvature dependence and independence of detonation velocity affects this trade-off. We then address the hydro-code results using a test case with five detonation points. The times of arrival of the detonation front at certain locations (gauge points) are taken to represent the shape of the detonation front. Times of arrival obtained using hydro-code are compared with those obtained by the level set method which has been optimized for the three considerations above. The shape of the front gets similarly reproduced in both cases, but the level set method over predicts the time of arrival up to 10 percent. We conclude that more efficient computing hardware needs to employed for DSD simulations and the level set method would serve as a quicker means for preliminary checks of detonation point arrangements. We also suggest a method for accommodating time delays at detonation points. The initial scalar field is assumed to be a combination of Gaussian functions centered at the detonation points. This is taken to represent the detonation at certain lead time which is accommodated for in the algorithm. This lead time is reduced if any delay is to be accommodated. The above method for accommodating time delay has a limitation. The initial radius cannot be made smaller that the radius set by the standard decay constant of the initial Gaussian profiles of the scalar field. The accommodated delay cannot be longer than this radius divided by detonation speed to be employed. We offer a work-around involving a construction of suitably located secondary detonation points.
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Ružić, Ivan, and Petra Popek Biškupec. "ASSESSMENT OF THE PANDEMIC SHOCK ON THE TOURISM SECTOR - THE CASE OF CROATIA." In The Sixth International Scientific Conference - TOURISM CHALLENGES AMID COVID-19, Thematic Proceedings. FACULTY OF HOTEL MANAGEMENT AND TOURISM IN VRNJAČKA BANJA UNIVERSITY OF KRAGUJEVAC, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.52370/tisc21247ir.

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Due to the pandemic crisis, the decline in cross-border travel has caused deterioration of consumption and induced the collapse of domestic consumption. Finally, the drop of the consumption in travel service affected the travel trade balance and caused decline of the economy. The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of the pandemic shock on the touristic sector in Croatia and to measure the effect of this negative trend. The research will be conducted using the SVAR model to disclose pandemic shock. The analysis considers the effect of the pandemic shock on the performance of the tourism sector, what is approximated by CROBEX turist index. Also, the analysis tests the impact of pandemic shock on turnover of the hotel industry. The results confirm the large-scale shock in the touristic sector and implicate the importance of measuring shock in assessing future trends and proposing measures for economic recovery in Croatia.
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Harada, Y., Y. Itoh, Y. Kojima, and F. Ono. "Testing Method of Spalling Resistance for Thermal Barrier Coating by Thermal Cycle and Thermal Shock." In ITSC2009, edited by B. R. Marple, M. M. Hyland, Y. C. Lau, C. J. Li, R. S. Lima, and G. Montavon. ASM International, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.31399/asm.cp.itsc2009p0997.

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Abstract “Testing Method for Thermal Cycle and Thermal Shock Resistance of Thermal Barrier Coating (TBC)” is a Japanese Industrial Standard (JIS) newly established by the Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry in 2008, after deliberations by Japanese Industrial Standards Committee, in accordance with the Industrial Standardization Law. The standard specifies a testing method that evaluates the spalling resistance of TBCs based on operating conditions in gas turbines. This paper provides an overview of the standard along with examples of its use.
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Yoon, Jeong H., and Dennis Hong. "Design of a Novel Torsional Spring for the Next Generation Compliant Actuators." In ASME 2018 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2018-86374.

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Series Elastic Actuators (SEA) are one of the most widely studied compliant actuators in anthropomorphic robots and prostheses. However, due to the nature of its unique configuration, an unavoidable trade-off has to be made between compliance and bandwidth performance. In this paper, we show that by adopting a hypocycloid mechanism in rotary actuator designs, compliance and high force control bandwidth can be achieved at the same time, while reaping all the benefits of energy storage and shock absorption characteristics of mechanical springs.
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Jennions, I. K., and J. J. Adamczyk. "Evaluation of the Interaction Losses in a Transonic Turbine HP Rotor / LP Vane Configuration." In ASME 1995 International Gas Turbine and Aeroengine Congress and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/95-gt-299.

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Transonic turbine rotors produce shock waves, wakes, tip leakage flows and other secondary flows that the downstream stators have to ingest. While the physics of wake ingestion and shock interaction have been studied quite extensively, few ideas for reducing the aerodynamic interaction losses have been forthcoming. This paper aims to extend previously reported work performed by GE Aircraft Engines in this area. It reports on both average-passage (steady) and unsteady 3D numerical simulations of a candidate design to shed light on the interaction loss mechanisms and evaluate the design. The results from these simulations are first shown against test data for a Baseline configuration to engender confidence in the numerical approach. Simulations with the proposed newly designed rotor are then performed to show the trade-offs that are being made in such designs. The new rotor does improve the overall efficiency of the group and physical explanations are presented based on examining entropy production.
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Reports on the topic "Trade shock"

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Greenland, Andrew, and John Lopresti. Trade Policy as an Exogenous Shock: Focusing on the Specifics. W.E. Upjohn Institute, June 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.17848/wp21-349.

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Wagner, Alexander, Richard Zeckhauser, and Alexandre Ziegler. Company Stock Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes and Trade. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, February 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w23152.

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Avila-Montealegre, Oscar, and Carter Mix. Common Trade Exposure and Business Cycle Comovement. Banco de la República de Colombia, December 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.1149.

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A large empirical literature has shown that countries that trade more with each other have more correlated business cycles. We show that previous estimates of this relationship are biased upward because they ignore common trade exposure to other countries. When we account for common trade exposure to foreign business cycles, we find that (1) the effect of bilateral trade on business cycle comovement falls by roughly 25 percent and (2) common exposure is a significant driver of business cycle comovement. A standard international real business cycle model is qualitatively consistent with these facts but fails to reproduce their magnitudes. Past studies have used models that allow for productivity shock transmission through trade to strengthen the relationship between trade and comovement. We find that productivity shock transmission increases business cycle comovement largely because of a country-pair's common trade exposure to other countries rather than because of bilateral trade. When we allow for stronger transmission between small open economies than other country-pairs, comovement increases both from bilateral trade and common exposure, similar to the data.
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Autor, David, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson. The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, January 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w21906.

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Rodrik, Dani. Making Sense of the Soviet Trade Shock in Eastern Europe: A Framework and Some Estimates. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, June 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w4112.

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Autor, David, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson. Trading Places: Mobility Responses of Native and Foreign-Born Adults to the China Trade Shock. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, January 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w30904.

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Alviarez, Vanessa, Michele Fioretti, Ken Kikkawa, and Monica Morlacco. Two-Sided Market Power in Firm-to-Firm Trade. Inter-American Development Bank, August 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003493.

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Firms in global value chains (GVCs) are granular and exert bargaining power over the terms of trade. We show that these features are crucial to understanding the well-established variation in prices and pass-through across importers and exporters. We develop a novel theory of prices in GVCs, which tractably nests a wide range of bilateral concentration and bargaining power configurations. We test and evaluate the models predictions using a novel dataset merging transaction-level U.S. import data with balance sheet data for both U.S. importers and foreign exporters. Our pricing framework enhances traditional frameworks in the literature in accurately predicting price changes following a tariff shock. The results shed light on the role of firms in determining the tariff pass-through onto import prices.
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Giordano, Paolo, and Kathia Michalczewsky. The fallout of the war in Ukraine on Latin America and the Caribbean. Inter-American Development Bank, January 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004336.

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a major shock to the global economy, which is unfolding as Latin America and the Caribbean is still recovering from the pandemic. It may slow growth and result in a sizeable food security shock for some countries of the region. Whereas the direct trade impact is expected to be limited, the indirect fallout is poised to be very relevant, if heterogenous across countries.
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Burriel, Pablo, Iván Kataryniuk, Carlos Moreno Pérez, and Francesca Viani. New supply bottlenecks index based on newspaper data. Madrid: Banco de España, January 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.53479/25166.

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We develop a new monthly indicator of supply bottlenecks using newspaper articles. The supply bottlenecks index (SBI) provides a consistent narrative of supply issues related to wars, natural disasters, strikes and, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. Innovations in the SBI have important macroeconomic implications: an increase in the SBI functions as a cost-push shock, decreasing industrial production and employment, and pushing prices up, so that monetary policy faces important trade-offs.
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Sabates-Wheeler, Rachel, and Carolina Szyp. Key Considerations for Targeting Social Assistance in Situations of Protracted Crises. Institute of Development Studies (IDS), March 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.19088/basic.2022.012.

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Targeting social assistance in situations of protracted conflict, protracted displacement, or recurrent climate shock, so that it reaches those most in need rapidly, effectively and without doing further harm, has historically been one of the most complex technical and political challenges for development and humanitarian programmes. Trade-offs involving costs beyond the economic – such as risks of exclusion and concerns over protection – raise questions about who to target, how to target and whether to target at all (i.e. through universal coverage or lotteries) would lead to better impacts in contexts where systems of state provision are often damaged or non-existent. The multiplicity of actors involved in delivering social assistance in crisis situations, with their own targeting cultures and mandates, can result in uncoordinated patchy and limited assistance, often overlooking equity concerns. Drawing on a range of literature, in this paper we examine the key considerations and dilemmas for targeting social assistance in protracted crises, including shock contexts, targeting methods, exclusion and protection risks, national and international actors’ politics, and technologies. Our purpose is to draw out lessons to better inform targeting of future social assistance programming across the humanitarian-development nexus.
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