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Journal articles on the topic 'Trade Policy Uncertainty'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 25 May 2024

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1

Limão, Nuno, and Giovanni Maggi. "Uncertainty and Trade Agreements." American Economic Journal: Microeconomics 7, no. 4 (November 1, 2015): 1–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mic.20130163.

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We explore conditions under which trade agreements can provide gains by reducing trade policy uncertainty. Given the degree of income risk aversion, this is more likely when economies are more open, export supply elasticities are lower, and economies more specialized. Governments have stronger incentives to sign trade agreements when the trading environment is more uncertain. As exogenous trade costs decline, the gains from reducing tariff uncertainty become more important relative to reducing average tariff levels. We also develop a simple “sufficient statistic” approach to quantify the gains from managing trade policy uncertainty, and examine the impact of ex ante investments on such gains. (JEL D81, F13)

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2

Qiu, Larry D. "Strategic Trade Policy Under Uncertainty." Review of International Economics 3, no. 1 (February 1995): 75–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.1995.tb00053.x.

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3

Ruhl, Kim J. "Trade Dynamics under Policy Uncertainty." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 93, no. 2 (December 21, 2010): 450–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aaq161.

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4

Zhao, Xiaotao, and Xiaoping Chen. "Inventory Management with Trade Policy Uncertainty." China & World Economy 30, no. 5 (September 2022): 128–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12440.

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5

Gervais, Jean-Philippe. "Production uncertainty and trade policy commitment." Journal of International Trade & Economic Development 10, no. 1 (January 2001): 1–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09638190010015241.

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6

Rodrigue, Joel, Qing Shi, and Yong Tan. "Trade policy uncertainty & resource misallocation." European Economic Review 164 (May 2024): 104720. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104720.

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7

Dong, Jia. "Research on Economic Policy Uncertainty and Import Trade." Frontiers in Business, Economics and Management 7, no. 1 (January 3, 2023): 235–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.54097/fbem.v7i1.4176.

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This paper uses the economic policy uncertainty and total import volume of 20 countries including the United States and China and the European Union from 2007 to 2021 and related data, and uses a fixed-effect model to study the impact of economic policy uncertainty on import trade. The results show that internal economic policy uncertainty significantly inhibits import trade, while global economic policy uncertainty has no significant impact on import trade. Maintaining good international relations with other countries and avoiding trade frictions is a Sensible way to promote import trade.

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8

Zhang, Xinmei. "A Nonlinear Stochastic Matrix Model for the Analysis of the Association between International Trade Growth and Environmental Change." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2022 (June 28, 2022): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/9153383.

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This study uses a nonlinear stochastic matrix for an in-depth analysis of the association between international trade growth and environmental change. First, for a class of uncertain stochastic nonlinear time-lag systems, this study investigates its time-lag-related robust stochastic stabilization problem. A memory-free state feedback controller for the system is then obtained to ensure the effectiveness of the system performance. This makes the system more general and the corresponding theoretical results less conservative. Finally, numerical examples are given to further verify the validity and feasibility of the results. The “tariff measure” based on the magnitude of adverse changes in trade policy is not an accurate measure of trade policy uncertainty; the stochastic volatility method measures trade policy uncertainty by including tariff fluctuations that have been communicated in advance in the trade policy uncertainty indicator and fail to identify the different commodities that occur during the current trade friction. The trade policy uncertainty index constructed through textual analysis of newspapers can better reflect the trade policy uncertainty during this trade friction between China and the United States, and the rich time-varying nature can also reflect the alternating changes of tension and détente in economic and trade relations over some time. The analysis of the mechanism reveals that exporters have fewer emission reduction facilities than nonexporters but significantly lower energy consumption intensity for coal and water than nonexporters, reasoning that the mechanism by which exporters are more environmentally friendly than nonexporters lies in their cleaner energy use mix. Following the conclusions of this study, relevant policy recommendations are put forward, specifically the use of more efficient energy sources in the production process and more investment in energy efficiency and emission reduction to combat pollution.

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9

Zhang, Ruxu, and Yahui Qu. "The Impact of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Trade Margins of China’s Export to the U.S." Sustainability 14, no. 22 (November 15, 2022): 15101. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su142215101.

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Since the subprime crisis, the U.S. has begun to adjust its international trade policies due to the worldwide economic slowdown, leaving its trading partners facing great uncertainty in trade policy. In this study, we developed a panel model to empirically analyze the impact of U.S. trade policy uncertainty on the extensive margin, intensive margin, price margin, and quantity margin of Chinese exports of U.S. goods. We found that U.S. trade policy uncertainty is also a trade barrier for China’s export trade. The extensive margin, intensive margin, price margin, and quantity margin of Chinese exports to the U.S. are all adversely connected with U.S. trade policy uncertainty. The increase in U.S. trade policy uncertainty significantly inhibits the increase in the extensive margin, intensive margin, and quantity margin of China’s exports to America, and the degree of inhibition of the quantity margin is five times that of the extensive margin. Increased U.S. trade policy uncertainty also restrains the increase in the price margin of Chinese exports to America, but this is not statistically significant. In this study, we emphasize the significant impact that U.S. trade policy uncertainty has had on the trade margins of Chinese exports of goods to America. To stabilize China’s exports to the United States, China should increase support for export enterprises’ technological R&D and innovation, expand bilateral or multilateral free trade agreements with other countries, and so on.

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10

Abaidoo, Rexford. "Policy uncertainty and dynamics of international trade." Journal of Financial Economic Policy 11, no. 1 (April 1, 2019): 101–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jfep-02-2018-0034.

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PurposeThis study aims to empirically examine how economic policy uncertainty emanating from three major global economic blocks (the US, the Chinese and the European Union) and volatility in global oil prices influence international trade.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses quarterly data spanning the period between 1995 and 2014 in an autoregressive distributed lag framework.FindingsThis study finds that economic policy uncertainty conditions associated with the US and the Chinese economies tend to have significant negative or constraining impact on key components of international trade. Further analysis suggests that between the two leading economies (the US and the Chinese economies), economic policy uncertainty emanating from the US economy tend to have much more constraining impact on dynamics of international trade than the Chinese economy all things being equal.Practical implicationsThis study’s findings carry significant strategic planning and policy implications for international trade dependent firms or corporations and economies. For instance, for multi-national corporations or firms whose products and services depend heavily on cross-border trade, understanding and taking into consideration prevailing economic policy dynamics emanating from the US and the Chinese economies in product and services demand forecast, and other strategic moves could be critical in minimizing potential adverse effects on projected performance or growth targets.Originality/valueThe uniqueness of this study’s approach stems from its assessment of how perception of uncertainty among economic agents about economic policies originating from three noted global economic blocks impacts international trade. In other words, instead of traditional factors or conditions surmised to influence variability in trend associated with international trade found in related studies, this study rather examines how perceptions of uncertainty about prevailing or yet to be enacted economic policy within specific global economic block impacts international trade.

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11

Wang, Hui, Huayu Shen, Xiaoyi Tang, Zuofeng Wu, and Shuming Ma. "Trade policy uncertainty and firm risk taking." Economic Analysis and Policy 70 (June 2021): 351–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.03.007.

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12

Caldara, Dario, Matteo Iacoviello, Patrick Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, and Andrea Raffo. "The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty." International Finance Discussion Paper 2019, no. 1256 (September 2019): 1–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/ifdp.2019.1256.

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13

Tam, Pui Sun. "Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty." Applied Economics 50, no. 34-35 (February 12, 2018): 3718–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1436151.

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Caldara, Dario, Matteo Iacoviello, Patrick Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, and Andrea Raffo. "The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty." Journal of Monetary Economics 109 (January 2020): 38–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.11.002.

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15

Ongan, Serdar, and Ismet Gocer. "The US-China trade war with increasing trade policy uncertainty." Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies 13, no. 2 (October 22, 2020): 87–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jcefts-01-2020-0002.

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Purpose This study aims to examine the impacts of changing US trade policy uncertainty (henceforth, TPU Index) on US bilateral trade balance with China from a nonlinear methodology perspective. Design/methodology/approach The nonlinear auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, recently developed by Shin et al. (2014), is applied. This model decomposes the TPU Index series into its increases (TPU+) and decreases (TPU−) and creates two new TPU Index series. Findings Empirical findings indicate that increases in the TPU Index improve the US bilateral trade balance only in the short-run (no long-run impact). However, decreases in the TPU Index worsen the US trade balance in the short run but improve it in the long run. Apart from these effects detected on US–China bilateral trade balances, this empirical study draws the conclusion that changing trade policy uncertainty plays a significant determining role for bilateral trade volumes. Originality/value Decomposed TPU index with the nonlinear ARDL model enables us to examine the separate impacts of the changes in TPU+ and TPU− indexes on US bilateral trade balance with China. Therefore, this model may discover potentially concealed-hidden true impacts of TPU index on US bilateral trade balance with this country.

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16

Handley, Kyle, and Nuno Limão. "Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 7, no. 4 (November 1, 2015): 189–222. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pol.20140068.

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In a dynamic model with sunk export costs, a firm's export investment is lower under trade policy uncertainty, and credible preferential trade agreements (PTAs) increase trade even if current tariffs are low. Exploring Portugal's accession to the European Community as a policy uncertainty shock we find that the trade reform accounted for a large fraction of Portuguese exporting firms' entry and sales; the accession removed uncertainty about future EC trade policies; and this uncertainty channel accounted for a large fraction of the predicted growth. Our approach can be applied to other PTAs and sources of policy uncertainty. (JEL D22, F12, F14, F15, G31, L11)

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17

Li, Weihan. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Enterprise Inventory Management Behavior." Frontiers in Business, Economics and Management 7, no. 3 (February 23, 2023): 25–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.54097/fbem.v7i3.5272.

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This paper takes the Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) granted by the United States after China's accession to the WTO as a quasi-natural experiment, and systematically examines the impact of changes in trade policy uncertainty on the inventory management behavior of enterprises using the method of multiple differences. This paper finds that the decline of trade policy uncertainty has significantly reduced the quantity of enterprise inventory, especially those exporting to the United States. From the perspective of trade policy changes, this paper provides a new explanation for understanding the dynamic changes in the quantity of Chinese enterprise inventory in recent years, and also helps to systematically evaluate the economic effects of trade policy uncertainty changes.

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18

Park, Heedae, and Jiyoung An. "The Effect of Trade Agreements on Korea’s Bilateral Trade Volume: Mitigating the Impact of Economic Uncertainty in Trading Countries." Journal of Korea Trade 27, no. 5 (October 31, 2023): 153–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.35611/jkt.2023.27.5.153.

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Purpose - This research empirically analyzes the influence of economic policy uncertainty and free trade agreements (FTAs) on bilateral trade volumes between Korea and its trading partners. The study investigates whether fluctuations in the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPUI) for both Korea and its trading partners significantly impact trade volumes and whether the implementation of FTAs mitigates these effects. Design/methodology - The study employs dynamic panel data analysis using the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) estimation method to achieve its research objectives. It utilizes country-month-level panel data, including the EPUI, trade volume between Korea and its trading partner countries, and other pertinent variables. The use of system GMM allows for the control of potential endogeneity issues and the incorporation of country-specific and time-specific effects. Findings - The analysis yields significant results regarding the impact of economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports and imports, particularly before the implementation of FTAs. An increase in the EPUI of trading partners leads to a notable increase in Korea's exports to them. Conversely, an increase in Korea's EPUI negatively affects its imports from trading partners. However, post-FTA implemen- tation, the influence of each country's EPUI on trade volume is neutralized, with no significant difference observed. Originality/value - This research contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the interaction effects between economic policy uncertainty and FTAs on bilateral trade volumes. The study's uniqueness lies in its examination of how FTAs mitigate the impact of economic uncertainty on trade relations between countries. The findings underscore the importance of trade agreements as mechanisms to address economic risks and promote international trade relations. In a world where global market uncertainties persist, these insights can aid policymakers in Korea and other countries in enhancing their trade cooperation strategies and navigating challenges posed by evolving economic landscapes.

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19

Lin, Bo, Liu Yuan, and Bo Lu. "How Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Supply Chain Efficiency: A Case Study of Listed Companies of Chinese Port Industry." Sustainability 15, no. 9 (April 24, 2023): 7140. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su15097140.

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This paper uses a data sample from listed companies in the national port industry from 2007 to 2020 to systematically explore the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the supply chain efficiency of listed companies in the national port industry and its mechanism based on the events of Sino–US trade policy changes. It is found that the increase in trade policy uncertainty significantly reduces the enterprises’ supply chain efficiency. The further influence channel test shows that the increase of trade policy uncertainty inhibits the improvement of enterprises’ supply chain efficiency by reducing the export quantity and technological innovation channel of enterprises. From the perspective of trade policy changes, this paper provides a new explanation for understanding the dynamic changes in the supply chain efficiency of Chinese enterprises in recent years and enriches relevant research on evaluating the economic effects of trade policy uncertainty.

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20

Sun, Yiping, Xiangyi Li, Tengyuan Zhang, and Jiawei Fu. "Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Exacerbate Environmental Pollution?—Evidence from Chinese Cities." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 4 (February 14, 2022): 2150. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19042150.

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Although the relationship between trade and environment has been widely discussed in past studies, trade policy has been in a state of continuous change in recent years. Previous studies have focused on the impact of trade opening or liberalization on the environment, ignoring discussion of the dynamic changes of trade policy. Therefore, it is very important to explore the connection between trade policy changes and environmental pollution for future environmental protection. In order to realize the in-depth study of this mechanism, the paper will try to solve the following three problems: (1) What is the relationship between change in trade policy uncertainty and China’s environmental pollution? (2) What is the mechanism by which trade uncertainty changes environmental pollution? (3) Due to China’s vast territory and regional differences, will changes in trade policy uncertainty have heterogeneous effects due to regional differences? To solve these problems, based on China’s accession to the WTO at the end of 2001, this paper, for the first time, uses PM2.5 concentration data of 246 prefecture-level cities in China to explore the impact of trade policy uncertainty on China’s environmental pollution, then we make an in-depth analysis of the impact path and heterogeneity of urban spatial distribution and city size. We found that, after China’s accession to the WTO, the growth rate of PM2.5 concentration reduced in cities with lower trade policy uncertainty and the inhibition effect was different due to the spatial distribution of city size. A further mechanism test shows that reduction in trade policy uncertainty can improve environmental pollution through industrial, structural and technological effects.

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21

Zhou, Yuan, and Yao Ji. "Trade Policy Uncertainty, Innovation and Total Factor Productivity." Sustainability 14, no. 1 (December 27, 2021): 266. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14010266.

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This paper explores the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) shock on China’s total factor productivity. Using economic panel data for China, OECD countries, Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR, and Singapore from the period 2003–2019, in this paper, we treat U.S.–China trade frictional events in 2016 and 2017 as a quasi-experiment to study the impact of TPU surge on China’s TFP under the synthetic control method (SCM) and generalized synthetic control method (GSCM), treating the OECD countries, Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR, and Singapore as a control group. We found that TPU surge has a significantly negative causal effect on China’s TFP. SCM analysis, taking 2016 (2017) as the policy implementation time, showed that the average TFP loss borne by China due to trade policy uncertainty in 2017 and 2018 was 2.7% (3.5%). The VAR model showed that China’s trade policy uncertainty reduces China’s TFP through two channels: the shrinking channel of domestic R&D innovation, and the shrinking channel of the domestic sector’s use of foreign patents. This conclusion is robust according to the GSCM. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to examine the long-term technological impact of TPU surge during U.S.–China trade frictional events. Our findings suggest that trade friction harms technological progress, and reducing TPU can significantly enhance innovation and TFP.

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22

Zareen, Sajida, and Dr Amjid Amin. "IMPACT OF POLICY UNCERTAINTY ON TRADE AND WELFARE EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN AND CHINA." Journal of Pakistan-China Studies (JPCS) 3, no. 1 (December 1, 2022): 18–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.55733/jpcs.v3i1.44.

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The impact of policy uncertainty on exports and imports (trade) between Pakistan and China is estimated in this study and the impact of trade on economic welfare is analyzed. Secondary data from 1972 to 2018 is taken from WDI. Pooled OLS is applied to achieve the study objectives. The impact of change in Policy Uncertainty (PU) between Pakistan and China is negative and significant. It is concluded that when policy uncertainty increases exports and imports (trade) between Pakistan and the China decreases because the trading partner of the home country feels insecure about their exported and imported products which affects the exports and imports (trade) negatively. ARMA Likelihood model is applied to check the impact of trade on economic welfare of the country. Results show that the impact is positive and significant. It is recommended that exports to Pakistan will increase if policy uncertainty is removed. Reducing tariff policy uncertainty will increase the competitiveness of Pakistan and China due to which the quality of production will be increased and Trade will improve.

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YAMAN SONGUR, Demet. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Import? Evidence from Panel Data Analysis." Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi 29, no. 2 (June 25, 2022): 281–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.1053116.

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Uncertainty in the economy can have an impact on macroeconomic variables such as foreign trade and exchange rates. With the advancement of globalization and the increasing interdependence of economies, international trade is strongly affected by the uncertainty in the economy. Although there is no consensus in the literature regarding the effects of economic policy uncertainty on foreign trade, the general view emerged as a result of studies is that uncertainty suppresses trade flows. The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the imports of 18 countries by using panel data techniques using annual data for the period 1997-2019. The country group discussed in the analysis was chosen considering the lack of access to data. The results show that economic policy uncertainty affects imports negatively in all countries examined in the period under review. Key Words: Economic Policy Uncertainty, Import, Panel Data Analysis JEL Classification: C33, D81, F14

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CASSING, J. H., A. L. HILLMAN, and N. V. LONG. "RISK AVERSION, TERMS OF TRADE UNCERTAINTY AND SOCIAL-CONSENSUS TRADE POLICY *." Oxford Economic Papers 38, no. 2 (July 1986): 234–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a041738.

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25

Kuznecova, G. "World Trade Under International Financial Uncertainty." Scientific Research and Development. Economics of the Firm 12, no. 3 (September 25, 2023): 33–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/2306-627x-2023-12-3-33-39.

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The article examines the relationship and interdependence of the main vectors of development of international trade and policy in the monetary sphere. It is noted that despite the general state of uncertainty characteristic of the last three years, starting from the era of covid, the future development of international economic relations will be determined by the dual impact of digitalization processes, including finance, and the climate agenda. Separately, the impact on the current state of international trade of the spread of the platform infrastructure created by the digital giants of the Megacap - 8 group, as well as the activities of mega-global financial corporations, is considered. Particular emphasis is placed on the ambiguity of the consequences of the widespread use of blockchain technology, the positive aspects of which are certainly recognized. It is concluded that the modern transformation of the field of finance and monetary policy is becoming one of the most important factors influencing the course of world trade. However, given that the results of this impact are still unclear, the main direction of the policy of states and international organizations should be to combine efforts to create acceptable regulatory mechanisms.

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Sudsawasd, Sasatra, and Robert E. Moore. "Investment under Trade Policy Uncertainty: an Empirical Investigation*." Review of International Economics 14, no. 2 (May 2006): 316–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2006.00578.x.

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27

Handley, Kyle. "Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence." Journal of International Economics 94, no. 1 (September 2014): 50–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.05.005.

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Imbruno, Michele. "Importing under trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China." Journal of Comparative Economics 47, no. 4 (December 2019): 806–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2019.06.004.

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Qamruzzaman, Md. "Clarifying the nexus between Trade Policy Uncertainty, Economic Policy Uncertainty, FDI and Renewable Energy Demand." International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 14, no. 2 (March 15, 2024): 367–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.15470.

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: As the world becomes increasingly aware of the need to shift towards sustainable energy sources, China and the United States are two global superpowers leading this transition. With growing populations and increasing demand for energy, these countries have recognized the importance of renewable energy in meeting their needs while reducing carbon emissions. The motivation of the study is to evaluate the impact of trade policy uncertainty on renewal energy demean in the USA and China for the period 2000-2021 by employing linear and nonlinear assessment. The test statistics derived through the cointegration test by following Bayer-Hancked and Makki's cointegration established a long-run tie in the empirical equation. Moreover, the long-run linkage was revealed with symmetry and asymmetry investigation. Referring to the coefficients of linear assessment, the study established that uncertainties have a detrimental role in clean energy demand in the long- and short-run assessment. The asymmetric association between uncertainties and REC has been documented through the execution of a standard weld test with the null of symmetry. The directional causality test established a unidirectional linkage between trade policy uncertainty and REC [TPU<- ->REC], and a bidirectional linkage between economic policy uncertainty and REC [EPU<- ->REC].

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Shabbir, Muhammad Nadir, Wang Liyong, and Muhammad Usman Arshad. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Medical Innovation: Evidence from Developing Nations." Economies 10, no. 9 (September 14, 2022): 224. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/economies10090224.

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This study explores the influence of trade policy uncertainty on medical innovation investment in developing nations from 1980 to 2020, with a focus on the period of COVID-19. We used exogenous and heterogeneous exposure to trade-policy-uncertainty resolutions from developing countries’ trade policy adjustments, which reduced tariff hikes on imported goods in a double difference-in-differences method. ARDL with PVAR has been studied for long-run and short-run analyses. The findings revealed that reducing tariff uncertainty boosts innovation beyond patent filings and margin reaction and exports. Long-term impacts of sectoral innovation patterns, governmental changes, and foreign technology entering developing nations have little effect on the findings. This paper also shows a long-term link between medical innovation, trade policy uncertainty, and research-and-development spending. Innovation’s negative response to the innovation shock and research and development’s positive response corroborates bidirectional and unidirectional causality. This study contributes to medical innovation and policy uncertainty in terms of developing countries and, most importantly, in trends of medical innovation, contemporaneous policy uncertainty given the inflow of foreign technology, and the importance of that technology recent times.

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Ahmad, Saad, Nuno Limão, Sarah Oliver, and Serge Shikher. "Brexit Uncertainty and Its (Dis)Service Effects." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 15, no. 4 (November 1, 2023): 459–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200808.

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We estimate the impact of increased policy uncertainty from Brexit on UK trade in services. We apply an uncertainty-augmented gravity equation to UK services trade with the European Union at the industry level from 2016:I to 2018:IV. By exploiting the variation in the probability of Brexit from prediction markets interacted with a new trade policy risk measure across service industries, we identify a significant negative impact of the threat of Brexit on trade values and participation. The increased probability of Brexit in this period lowered services exports by at least 20 log points. (JEL F13, F14, F15)

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Hu, Xixi, and Jing Yu. "Research on the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on China's ICT Service Export." BCP Business & Management 20 (June 28, 2022): 544–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.54691/bcpbm.v20i.1030.

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In recent years, economic policy uncertainty has been a hot topic in the world, and the development level of service trade is one of the symbols to measure a country's economic strength. Nowadays, the world economy is transforming to the globalization of digital economy, in which information and communication technology (ICT) plays an important role in the process of digital development. Taking service trade as the starting point, using the economic policy uncertainty index and taking the data of China's ICT service exports from 2001 to 2019 as a sample, this paper studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on China's ICT service exports. The study found that China's economic policy uncertainty is conducive to the export of ICT services, while the global economic policy uncertainty has a restraining effect on it. Based on this, this paper puts forward policy suggestions on China's ICT service trade from the perspective of strengthening multilateral cooperation and increasing policy support of exporting countries.

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Ai, Qingsong. "The Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Export Enterprises' Innovation." Transactions on Economics, Business and Management Research 6 (May 13, 2024): 134–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.62051/9k5cvj49.

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In the context of the complex and variable global trade environment, the importance of cultivating new competitive advantages for foreign trade is gradually highlighted. This directly concerns the development quality of our country's trade and is the necessary path for enterprises to achieve innovative development. Clarifying the main position of enterprises in technological innovation is key to constructing a high-quality development pattern. However, due to objective factors, such as adjustments in the international environment and the presence of emergencies, the uncertainty of our country's trade policy has significantly increased, bringing new challenges to the innovation activities of export enterprises. It is essential to analyze from different angles and explore the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the innovation of export enterprises. During the development process of enterprises, the uncertainty of trade policy represents facing higher market impacts and cost pressures. It can also inspire the innovation motivation of enterprises, prompting them to seek new competitive advantages. For the government, how to create favorable conditions for enterprise innovation while ensuring the stability of trade policy is also an important topic. Therefore, this paper's research helps enterprises better understand the impact of trade policy uncertainty on their innovation activities, thus formulating more reasonable and effective innovation strategies; it also provides useful references for the government in policy-making, helping to create more favorable conditions for the innovative development of our country's export enterprises in a complex and variable international environment.

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Simbolon, Putu George Matthew, and Angel Damayanti. "Indonesian Trade Policy in Adjusting the 2020 WTO’s Trade Policy Review." Jurnal Hubungan Internasional 12, no. 1 (June 9, 2023): 76–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jhi.v12i1.18038.

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This article analyzes the Trade Policy Review Body (TPRB) review of Indonesia in 2020, mainly in the agricultural sector, and how Indonesian compliance with the WTO Agreement is helpful for the Trade Policy Review Mechanism (TPRM). This study uses the normative method by gathering primary and secondary legal sources. The 2020 TPRB review perceives that Indonesia has applied untransparent safeguard measures related to its agricultural products, prohibited subsidies, and quantitative restrictions on other WTO member states. However, the Job Creation Law, launched in 2020, can be viewed as a proportional law as it puts imported products in an equivalent position with domestic agriculture or food products. The discussions reveal that Law No 11/2020 aims to balance its national interest with the WTO Agreement and the TPRB review of Indonesian trade policy, mainly in agriculture. With such legal certainty, this article recommends that Indonesia consider the TPRB review in good faith by invoking transparent safeguards, reducing its export subsidies on agricultural products, conducting a persistent report to the Committee on Agriculture, and protecting its public health and morals. The Indonesian government should also conduct text mining to determine its trade policies and deal with international trade uncertainty.

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Yan, Huan, Weiguo Xiao, Qi Deng, and Sisi Xiong. "Analysis of the Impact of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on China Based on Bayesian VAR Model." Journal of Mathematics 2022 (March 24, 2022): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/7124997.

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Using a set of Chinese economic data and a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model, this study empirically analyzes the spillover effects of U.S. trade policy uncertainty on the output, consumption, investment, and net export in China. The results find that U.S. trade policy uncertainty is an important factor influencing China’s real economy. Specifically, an increase in U.S. trade policy uncertainty has a significant negative effect on China’s output, consumption, and net export in the short and long run, but it will have a negative impact on investment in the short run and a positive impact in the medium and long run.

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Shaikh, Imlak. "On the relation between purchasing manager’s index and trade policy uncertainty: evidence from China, Japan and the USA." Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies 14, no. 2 (February 26, 2021): 202–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jcefts-10-2020-0068.

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Purpose Trade uncertainty does influence the firm’s new investment, profitability and supply chain finance. Consequently, it results in decreased consumption and low consumer confidence and eventually disrupts global economic activity. This paper aims to propose a model to uncover the effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the real economic activity and economy’s health measured in terms of the purchasing manager’s index (PMI). Design/methodology/approach This study uses the PMI, trade policy uncertainty index, economic policy uncertainty index and short-term interest rate. The relation between economic activity and uncertainty was studied using nested regression and vector autoregressive model. Findings The empirical results show that PMI of China and Japan were more responsive to the TPU of the USA and remained more fluctuating during the year 2018–2019. Importantly, this paper notices that the US’s PMI reached a low historically subject to its own trade policy and tension with China. Overall, TPU has shown more pronounced effects on PMI across China, Japan and the USA, followed by important economic and political events and major trade tariff uncertainty deals. Practical implications The empirical outcome holds some practical implications trade uncertainty affects not only the economic health of the economy but also market participants, global investors and international political environment, recent trade barriers, tariff wars and ambiguity raise question about free and fair global trade and competitiveness of the member country of the world trade organization. Originality/value The work is a novel that attempts to explain economic activity and supply chain through PMI. Unlike conventional economic indicators, e.g. gross domestic product, producer price index, consumer price index, employment, etc. PMI measures manufacturing industries’ overall status concerning the number of orders, inventory levels, productions, supplier deliveries and employment.

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Zhao, Tingting. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Manufacturing Value-added Exports." Engineering Economics 33, no. 1 (February 28, 2022): 103–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.33.1.27373.

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This study explores the effects of increased economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in both importing and exporting countries on manufacturing value-added exports. The results show that increased EPU of both importing and exporting countries would result in decreases in manufacturing value-added trade flows, and the negative effect of exporters' EPU is larger than that of importers' EPU. Our results also provide evidence on the influence channels: increased EPU of exporting countries affects manufacturing value-added trade flows primarily through the cost to export, while increased EPU of importing countries primarily through market demand. This conclusion is robust to a series of robustness checks.

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Baek, Jungho. "Oil Prices, World Trade Policy Uncertainty, and the Trade Balance: The Case of Korea." Commodities 2, no. 3 (June 26, 2023): 188–200. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/commodities2030012.

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This article studies the asymmetric effects that the price of crude oil has on Korean exports to and imports from its largest partners—China, the U.S., and Japan—controlling for world trade policy uncertainty. The results support the evidence of the long-run asymmetry of oil prices for Korea’s exports to Japan, and imports from China and Japan. However, there is no evidence of the short-run asymmetry of oil prices. Finally, world trade policy uncertainty appears to be more important for determining Korea’s bilateral trade in the short run than in the long run.

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Handley, Kyle, and Nuno Limão. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States." American Economic Review 107, no. 9 (September 1, 2017): 2731–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20141419.

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We examine the impact of policy uncertainty on trade, prices, and real income through firm entry investments in general equilibrium. We estimate and quantify the impact of trade policy on China's export boom to the United States following its 2001 WTO accession. We find the accession reduced the US threat of a trade war, which can account for over one-third of that export growth in the period 2000– 2005. Reduced policy uncertainty lowered US prices and increased its consumers' income by the equivalent of a 13-percentage-point permanent tariff decrease. These findings provide evidence of large effects of policy uncertainty on economic activity and the importance of agreements for reducing it. (JEL D72, F13, F14, O19, P33)

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Liu, Dajun, Xiugang Zhu, and Huiru Yu. "Economic policy uncertainty, intra-industry trade, and China’s mechanical and electrical product exports." PLOS ONE 19, no. 1 (January 18, 2024): e0290866. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0290866.

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Economic policy uncertainty has had an important impact on trade and sustainable economic development. Especially in some specific industries, uncertainty has increased dramatically. The extant related literature mainly analyzes the nexus between uncertainty and trade across different industries and focuses less on a specific industry. Using Chinese customs data on HS 8-digit products over the period of 2000–2013, this paper first investigates the impact of both foreign economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and domestic intra-industry trade on China’s mechanical and electrical product exports to 23 trading partners and applies pooled OLS regressions to conduct an empirical study. This paper finds that EPU has a significant inhibition effect on mechanical and electrical product exports; conversely, intra-industry trade can both significantly promote exports and alleviate the inhibition effect of EPU. In addition, the export impact of EPU varied with different trade patterns. It can significantly inhibit processing exports, while it has no effect on ordinary exports. The results of this paper indicate that in the context of increasing uncertainty, our findings could have far-reaching policy implications for China to build a new development pattern of domestic and international dual circulation.

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Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Jungho Baek. "Whose Policy Uncertainty Matters in the Trade between Korea and the U.S.?" Journal of Risk and Financial Management 14, no. 11 (November 1, 2021): 520. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14110520.

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Since the introduction of the news-based policy uncertainty measure, a few studies have looked at its impact on trade flows by using panel models and aggregate trade data. In this paper we consider the short-run and long-run response of 61 2-digit U.S. exporting industries to Korea and 49 2-digit Korean exporting industries to the U.S. to policy uncertainty measures of the U.S. and Korea. We find that both measures have short-run effects on exports of almost one-third of industries in either direction. In the long run, however, while nine U.S. exporting industries (with a trade share of 9%) are negatively affected by the Korean uncertainty measure, only five industries (with 6% export share) are affected by the U.S. uncertainty measure. As for the Korean exporting industries, we find that three industries with a 31% export share are affected positively by the Korean uncertainty measure and six industries with a 7% export share are affected positively by the U.S. uncertainty measure.

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Ongan, Serdar, and Ismet Gocer. "Does trade policy related uncertainty affect international trade? Evidence from the US-China commodity trade." China Economic Journal 13, no. 3 (June 30, 2020): 364–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2020.1786618.

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Sun, Ting-Ting, Chi-Wei Su, Nawazish Mirza, and Muhammad Umar. "How does trade policy uncertainty affect agriculture commodity prices?" Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 66 (April 2021): 101514. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101514.

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初, 新宇. "Trade Policy Uncertainty, Resource Allocation and Total Factor Productivity." Sustainable Development 11, no. 02 (2021): 215–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/sd.2021.112024.

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Adjei, Frederick, and Mavis Adjei. "Trade Policy Uncertainty, Market Return, and Expected Return Predictability." Journal of Finance and Economics 9, no. 3 (June 15, 2021): 106–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.12691/jfe-9-3-2.

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Suwanprasert, Wisarut. "The international spillover effects of US trade policy uncertainty." Economics Letters 212 (March 2022): 110286. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110286.

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Kongsted, Hans Christian. "Trade policy dynamics, entry costs, and exchange rate uncertainty." Journal of International Trade & Economic Development 21, no. 2 (April 2012): 197–216. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09638191003599527.

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Caglayan, Mustafa. "Uncertainty Resolution and Strategic Trade Policy in Oligopolistic Industries." Review of International Economics 8, no. 2 (May 2000): 311–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-9396.00223.

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Song, Kaiyi, Wei Dai, and Yuanchao Bian. "Trade policy uncertainty and environmental performance of Chinese enterprises." Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 64 (March 2023): 73–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2022.12.002.

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Steinberg, Joseph B. "Brexit and the macroeconomic impact of trade policy uncertainty." Journal of International Economics 117 (March 2019): 175–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.01.009.

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