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Published: 25 May 2024

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1

Wijnbergen, Sweder van. Trade reform, policy uncertainty, and the current account. Washington, DC (1818 H St. NW, Washington 20433): World Bank, 1990.

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2

Ndou, Eliphas, and Thabo Mokoena. Inequality, Output-Inflation Trade-Off and Economic Policy Uncertainty. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19803-9.

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3

Arvan, Lanny David. Flexibility versus commitment in strategic trade policy under uncertainty: A model of endogenous policy leadership. [Urbana, Ill.]: College of Commerce and Business Administration, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1990.

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4

Uncertainty and the theory of international trade. Chur [Switzerland]: Harwood Academic Publishers, 1987.

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5

Feenstra, Robert C. Distributing the gains from trade with incomplete information. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1990.

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6

Managing risk and uncertainty in international trade: Canada's natural gas exports. Boulder, Colo: Westview Press, 1986.

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7

Hausmann, Ricardo. Facing oil uncertainty in Venezuela: An optimal spending rule with liquidity constraints and adjustment costs. Washington, D.C: Dept. of Economic and Social Development, Inter-American Development Bank, 1992.

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8

Raquel, Fernandez. Why is trade reform so unpopular?: On status quo bias in policy reforms. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1990.

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9

Markaz al-Imārāt lil-Dirāsāt wa-al-Buḥūth al-Istirātījīyah. and ECSSR's Energy Conference (8th : 2002 : Abu Dhabi), eds. Risk and uncertainty in the changing global energy market: Implications for the Gulf. Abu Dhabi: Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research, 2004.

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10

Associates, Cambridge Energy Research. Uncertainty in chilean energy markets: Regulatory changes and the effects of the argentinean crisis. Cambridge, Mass: CERA, 2002.

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11

Office, General Accounting. General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade: Agriculture Department's projected benefits are subject to some uncertainty : report to the Chairman, Committee on Agriculture, House of Representatives. Washington, D.C: The Office, 1994.

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12

Office, General Accounting. Air pollution: Uncertainty exists in radon measurements : report to the chairman, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, House of Representatives. Washington, D.C: GAO, 1989.

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13

Office, General Accounting. International aviation: Airline alliances produce benefits, but effect on competition is uncertain : report to Congressional requesters. Washington, D.C: The Office, 1995.

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14

Wheeler, Winslow T. Military reform: An uneven history and an uncertain future. Stanford, Calif: Stanford University Press, 2009.

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15

Office, General Accounting. World Trade Organization: Cancun Ministerial fails to move global trade negotiations forward; next steps uncertain : report to the Chairman, Committee on Finance, U.S. Senate, and to the Chairman, Committee on Ways and Means, House of Representatives. Washington, D.C: GAO, 2004.

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16

Office, General Accounting. International trade: Long-term viability of U.S.-European Union aircraft agreement uncertain : report to the Honorable Richard Gephardt, Majority Leader, House of Representatives. Washington, D.C: The Office, 1994.

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17

Office, General Accounting. International trade: Long-term viability of U.S.-European Union aircraft agreement uncertain : report to the Honorable Richard Gephardt, Majority Leader, House of Representatives. Washington, D.C: The Office, 1994.

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18

Office, General Accounting. International trade: Long-term viability of U.S.-European Union aircraft agreement uncertain : report to the Honorable Richard Gephardt, Majority Leader, House of Representatives. Washington, D.C: The Office, 1994.

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19

Office, General Accounting. International trade: Long-term viability of U.S.-European Union aircraft agreement uncertain : report to the Honorable Richard Gephardt, Majority Leader, House of Representatives. Washington, D.C: The Office, 1994.

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20

Office, General Accounting. International trade: Long-term viability of U.S.-European Union aircraft agreement uncertain : report to the Honorable Richard Gephardt, Majority Leader, House of Representatives. Washington, D.C: The Office, 1994.

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21

Office, General Accounting. International trade: Long-term viability of U.S.-European Union aircraft agreement uncertain : report to the Honorable Richard Gephardt, Majority Leader, House of Representatives. Washington, D.C: The Office, 1994.

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22

Office, General Accounting. International trade: Long-term viability of U.S.-European Union aircraft agreement uncertain : report to the Honorable Richard Gephardt, Majority Leader, House of Representatives. Washington, D.C: The Office, 1994.

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23

Office, General Accounting. Uranium enrichment: Unresolved trade issues leave uncertain future for U.S. uranium industry : report to the ranking minority member, Subcommittee on Nuclear Regulation, Committee on Environment and Public Works, U.S. Senate. Washington, D.C: GAO, 1992.

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24

1945-, Gilbert Richard J., and Jacquemin Alexis, eds. Barriers to entry and strategic competition. London: Routledge, 2001.

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25

Grinols, E. Uncertainty and the Theory of International Trade. Taylor & Francis Group, 2014.

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26

Grinols, E. Uncertainty and the Theory of International Trade. Taylor & Francis Group, 2013.

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27

Grinols, E. Uncertainty and the Theory of International Trade. Taylor & Francis Group, 2013.

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28

Grinols, E. Uncertainty and the Theory of International Trade. Taylor & Francis Group, 2013.

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29

Grinols, E. Uncertainty and the Theory of International Trade. Taylor & Francis Group, 2013.

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30

Grinols, E. Uncertainty and the Theory of International Trade. Taylor & Francis Group, 2013.

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31

Osnago, Alberto, Roberta Piermartini, and Nadia Rocha. The Heterogeneous Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty: How Much Do Trade Commitments Boost Trade? World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8567.

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32

Constantinescu, Cristina, Aaditya Mattoo, and Michele Ruta. Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Global Value Chains: Some Facts, Many Questions. World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9048.

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33

Winberg, Alan R. Managing Risk and Uncertainty in International Trade. Taylor & Francis Group, 2023.

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34

Mokoena, Thabo, and Eliphas Ndou. Inequality, Output-Inflation Trade-Off and Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence From South Africa. Palgrave Macmillan, 2019.

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35

Mokoena, Thabo, and Eliphas Ndou. Inequality, Output-Inflation Trade-Off and Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from South Africa. Springer International Publishing AG, 2020.

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36

Cebreros, Alfonso, Alejandrina Salcedo, Daniel Chiquiar, and Aldo Heffner-Rodríguez. Trade Policy Uncertainty and its Effect on Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from Mexico. Banco de México, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.36095/banxico/di.2020.14.

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This paper investigates whether "trade policy uncertainty" (TPU), even absent changes in actual policy, may have an adverse effect on foreign direct investment. The paper focuses on the case of Mexico, where we observe a plausibly sharp and exogenous increase in TPU vis-à-vis a large trading partner beginning in the second half of 2016. To test this hypothesis, we use data from Google Trends to construct a TPU index and argue that this index adequately captures both time series and cross-sectional variation in TPU across states in Mexico. We exploit this variation to identify the effect of increased uncertainty on FDI flows. We find that the increase in TPU was associated with a negative effect on FDI inflows, with the effect being driven by the negative impact that TPU had on FDI in export oriented states.
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37

Navigating Uncertainty: Towards a Post-Brexit Trade and Development Agenda. Commonwealth Secretariat, 2018.

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38

Grinols, E. Uncertainty and the Theory of International Trade\: Harwood Fundamentals of Applied Economics. Taylor & Francis, 2002.

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39

Marino, Domenico, Francesco Carlo Morabito, and Jaime Gil-Lafuente. Economy, Business and Uncertainty: New Ideas for a Euro-Mediterranean Industrial Policy. Springer, 2019.

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40

Marino, Domenico, Francesco Carlo Morabito, and Jaime Gil-Lafuente. Economy, Business and Uncertainty: New Ideas for a Euro-Mediterranean Industrial Policy. Springer, 2018.

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41

Managing Risk and Uncertainty in International Trade: Canada's Natural Gas Exports. Taylor & Francis Group, 2020.

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42

Winberg, Alan R. Managing Risk and Uncertainty in International Trade: Canada's Natural Gas Exports. Taylor & Francis Group, 2020.

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43

Ries, Charles, Marco Hafner, Clement Fays, and Erez Yerushalmi. The End of the Beginning: Assessing the potential economic implications of prolonged UK–EU trade policy uncertainty. RAND Corporation, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.7249/rr4265.

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44

Guisinger, Alexandra. The Changing Landscape of Trade and Trade Knowledge. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190651824.003.0002.

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Because Americans’ understanding of their own and others’ connections to trade underpins their beliefs about trade’s costs and benefits, chapter 2 investigates what Americans know—or think they know—about trade and trade policy. It examines how trade has reshaped post-NAFTA America and argues that the new economic conditions of post-industrial America require expanding our analysis of factors shaping trade preferences beyond the traditional categories of skill level and industry. Additionally, the chapter identifies new sources of information uncertainty and in doing so provides a series of tables and figures detailing the changing composition of the U.S. economy and manufacturing; the changing influence of trade and specific trading relationships; and the convergence of major political parties’ policies. Furthermore, by analysing voters’ knowledge of roll call votes on a range of issues, the chapter offers a comparison of the political salience of trade with other important ideological and economic issues.
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45

Tosun, Jale. Energy Policy. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.174.

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Energy policy comprises rules concerning energy sources; energy efficiency; energy prices; energy from abroad; energy infrastructure; and climate and environmental aspects of energy production, utilization, and transit. The main theme in energy policy concerns the trade-offs between affordable, secure, and clean energy. Energy policy is a cross-sectoral—or boundary-spanning—policy area, which means that energy policy has implications for or is affected by decisions taken in adjacent policy areas such as those addressing agriculture, climate, development, economy, environment, external relations, and public health. The cross-sectoral character of energy policy is reflected in how it is proposed, adopted, implemented, and evaluated. Putting an energy policy issue on the political agenda can be attained easily, while the diversity of interests of the actor groups that are potentially affected by the proposal can complicate the policy process. The implementation depends on whether the energy policy measure in question is of a local, national, or international nature; and to what extent the implementation entails joint efforts by state and non-state actors. As with policy instruments adopted in any other policy area, the evaluation of an energy policy’s success is likely to vary across the different actor groups involved.The analytical perspectives on energy policy depend on the energy source of interest. Research concentrating on fossil energy sources (i.e., coal, oil, and natural gas) has traditionally adopted the analytical lens of international relations and international political economy. A similar research interest can be observed for studies of unconventional fossil energy sources (i.e., oil shale, oil sands, and shale gas) and nuclear power, although the centrality of risk and uncertainty in the analytical frameworks adopted help to connect these topics more directly with the public policy literature. The energy policy issue that has been on the research agendas of all political science subfields—including comparative politics—is renewable energy. Questions concerning the supply and management of energy infrastructure have received attention from public administration scholars.
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46

Post Carbon Cities Planning For Energy And Climate Uncertainty A Guidebook On Peak Oil And Global Warming For Local Governments. Post Carbon Press, 2008.

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47

Busch, Marc L., and Edward D. Mansfield. Trade: Determinants of Policies. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.013.350.

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A survey of the literature on trade has revealed that it is becoming more difficult for elected officials resist protectionist pressures by citing constraints imposed by global pacts and supply free trade. There are two main reasons why. First, the literature on the design and politics of international institutions increasingly emphasizes how they build in slack that can undermine government claims of being constrained. Second, as states accede to an ever-growing list of overlapping international institutions, there is often a choice among, or uncertainty over, which institution’s obligations apply. Where this situation creates more policy space for government officials, it also will make it more difficult for them to credibly tie their hands and supply free trade in the face of interest group pressures for protection. Currently, the literature is somewhat at a turning point. Questions about the design and politics of international institutions, and the growing thickness of the market for them, are very much in vogue. These questions have profound implications for the supply of free trade. The credibility of elected officials’ hands-tying strategies is likely undermined where institutions anticipate the political reactions of their members, or where members can shop for different rules on trade to accommodate domestic preferences. The irony is that the proliferation of international institutions may lead scholars of trade policy to renew their focus on domestic interest groups.
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48

Guisinger, Alexandra. Community and Trade Preferences. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190651824.003.0005.

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This chapter describes the impact on trade preference of two aspects of a community that, according to the model of preference formation proposed, influence individuals’ information-gathering costs: the concentration of import-competing jobs and residential turnover. Chapters 5 argues that the extent and effectiveness of this incorporation of sociotropic considerations depends greatly on how easily individuals can tap into community concerns. In our post-NAFTA economy, diminished concentrations of import-competing industries and increased community turnover have muddied traditional sources of local information about economic impacts and increased the difficulty of individuals’ determining what is best for their community. Using three decades of survey data, chapter 5 shows the strong impact of high residential turnover and low import-competing employment concentration on increased uncertainty about benefits of trade at the regional level and lower levels of support for trade protection. Analysis of voters’ knowledge of roll call (recorded) vote during the 109th Congress finds that these community factors relate to the political salience of trade policy in communities. The chapter concludes with illustrations from Texas and New York about how politicians in low information districts are able to take stances regarding trade in opposition to the majority of their constituents.
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49

Vanke, Jeffrey. 6. Charles de Gaulle’s Uncertain Idea of Europe. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/hepl/9780199570829.003.0007.

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This chapter examines how policy towards the European Economic Community (EEC) fitted in with French leader Charles de Gaulle's broader European and international objectives and how the international constraints on his certain vision of France gave rise to his evolving, uncertain idea of Europe. Having denounced the Treaty of Rome before coming to power in 1958, de Gaulle ensured the EEC's survival by undertaking financial reforms in France and warding off Britain's effort to negotiate a wider free trade area. He linked these initiatives to implementation of the common agricultural policy (CAP). The chapter also considers de Gaulle's proposal for an independent and intergovernmental European Union and his role in the so-called Empty Chair Crisis of 1965–6. Finally, it discusses the impact of de Gaulle on the course of European integration.
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50

Lissner, Rebecca. Wars of Revelation. Oxford University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197583180.001.0001.

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More than seventy-five years since the end of World War II, military interventions—rather than major wars—have emerged as a defining feature of contemporary geopolitics. Yet, for all the fierce policy debates over interventions and their lessons, scholars have largely ignored the systematic linkages between these smaller-scale wars and transformations in the grand strategies of states that prosecute them. Wars of Revelation develops a new theory—the informational theory of strategic adjustment—to explain why military interventions can be crucibles of grand strategy. It argues that, by prosecuting a military intervention, states glean rich and rare information about adversaries’ capabilities and intentions, as well as their own military power and cost tolerance. The uniquely costly nature of warfighting renders this data particularly credible. Amidst background conditions of intense interstate competition and pervasive uncertainty, states face strong incentives to reassess their grand strategies in light of this new information. This process of grand-strategic updating begins with a reassessment of the strategic assumptions directly tested on the battlefield, but it doesn’t end there. Indeed, the grand strategic effects of military interventions are far-reaching because information conveyed via warfighting is widely extrapolated to related strategic assessments. Wars of Revelation demonstrates the plausibility of the informational theory of strategic adjustment in three historically detailed case studies that trace the evolution of American grand strategy over the course of the Cold War and into the early post-Cold War era: the Korean, Vietnam, and First Gulf Wars.
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