Journal articles: 'Trade flows'

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Gil‐Pareja, Salvador, Rafael Llorca‐Vivero, and Jordi Paniagua. "Trade law and trade flows." World Economy 43, no. 3 (December 18, 2019): 681–704. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/twec.12886.

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Bown, Chad P., and Kara M. Reynolds. "Trade flows and trade disputes." Review of International Organizations 10, no. 2 (November 9, 2014): 145–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11558-014-9208-2.

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Fall, Moussa K. "Trade Flows Versus Capital Flows: Are China’s Trade Surpluses Overestimated?" International Economic Journal 31, no. 3 (July 3, 2017): 448–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2017.1354905.

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Carol, Anionwu. "Trade Liberalization and Trade Flows in Nigeria: An Aggregated Analysis." International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development Volume-2, Issue-6 (October 31, 2018): 1507–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.31142/ijtsrd18911.

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Yetman, James. "CURRENCY UNIONS, TRADE FLOWS AND CAPITAL FLOWS." Pacific Economic Review 12, no. 2 (May 2007): 189–204. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00346.x.

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Mansfield, Edward D., and Jon C. Pevehouse. "Trade Blocs, Trade Flows, and International Conflict." International Organization 54, no. 4 (2000): 775–808. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/002081800551361.

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The relationship between foreign trade and political conflict has been a persistent source of controversy among scholars of international relations. Existing empirical studies of this topic have focused on the effects of trade flows on conflict, but they have largely ignored the institutional context in which trade is conducted. In this article we present some initial quantitative results pertaining to the influence on military disputes of preferential trading arrangements (PTAs), a broad class of commercial institutions that includes free trade areas, common markets, and customs unions. We argue that parties to the same PTA are less prone to disputes than other states and that hostilities between PTA members are less likely to occur as trade flows rise between them. Moreover, we maintain that heightened commerce is more likely to inhibit conflict between states that belong to the same preferential grouping than between states that do not. Our results accord with this argument. Based on an analysis of the period since World War II, we find that trade flows have relatively little effect on the likelihood of disputes between states that do not participate in the same PTA. Within PTAs, however, there is a strong, inverse relationship between commerce and conflict. Parties to such an arrangement are less likely to engage in hostilities than other states, and the likelihood of a military dispute dips markedly as trade increases between them.

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Carter, David B., and Paul Poast. "Barriers to Trade: How Border Walls Affect Trade Relations." International Organization 74, no. 1 (December 23, 2019): 165–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0020818319000353.

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AbstractSince trade must cross borders, to what extent do border walls affect trade flows? We argue that border walls can reduce trade flows. Even if the objective is to only stem illicit flows, border walls heighten “border effects” that can also inhibit legal cross-border flows. Using a gravity model of trade that reflects recent developments in both economic theory and econometrics, we find that the creation of a wall is associated with a reduction in legal trade flows between neighboring countries. We provide a battery of evidence that suggests this reduction is not simply a function of worsening bilateral relations. Our findings have implications for understanding how governments have taken measures to assert sovereign control of their borders in an age of increasing economic globalization.

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Ferguson, Shon M., and Johan Gars. "Measuring the impact of agricultural production shocks on international trade flows." European Review of Agricultural Economics 47, no. 3 (April 26, 2019): 1094–132. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbz013.

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Abstract The purpose of this study is to measure the sensitivity of traded quantities and trade unit values to agricultural production shocks. We develop a general equilibrium model of trade in which production shocks in exporting countries affect both traded quantities and trade unit values. The model includes per-unit trade costs and develops a methodology to quantify their size exploiting the trade unit value data. Using bilateral trade flow data for a large sample of countries and agricultural commodities, we find that the intensive margin of trade is relatively inelastic to production shocks, with a 1 per cent increase in production leading to a 0.5 per cent increase in exports. We also find that per-unit trade costs are large, comprising 15–20 per cent of import unit values on average. Overall, our results suggest that there is room for improving trade as a mechanism for coping with food production volatility.

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Choi, Myoung Shik. "A Predictive Effect of Exchange Rates on Value-Added Free Trade." Sustainability 12, no. 21 (November 3, 2020): 9146. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12219146.

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The study investigates a predictive exchange rate effect on value-added trade flows on global value chains. We theoretically review the role of exchange rates on international trade based on insular, open, and global value chained economies. This paper empirically confirms a retro forecasting rule of the exchange rate on exports and trade balance using the value-added data for the period from 1995 to 2015. The first result is that real effective exchange rates have predictive elasticity information for the value-added trade flows. The second is that exchange rates have two practical effects on trade flows. The value-added exchange rate hurts the value-added trade balance due to increased intermediate trades, but the exchange rate has a positive effect on the gross trade balance. We would expect that value-added exports with trade balance can be improved in all sample countries when the value-added exchange rate is increasing. The main contribution is further evidence on distinguishing the currency depreciation on the value-added trade from the depreciation on the gross trade to achieve higher growth.

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Jošić, Hrvoje, and Maja Bašić. "Trade creation and trade diversion effects from Croatia’s CEFTA and EU membership." Ekonomski pregled 72, no. 4 (2021): 489–521. http://dx.doi.org/10.32910/ep.72.4.1.

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This paper provides a detailed empirical study of trade creation and trade diversion effects arising from Croatia's two regional trade agreements, the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) and the European Union (the EU). It offers a foundation for discussion about future trade policies in terms of benefits and drawbacks from those regional trade agreements. Croatia’s imports, exports and total trade flows with 180 trading partner countries were examined for the period of 2000 – 2016. Cross-country panel regression using gravity model of international trade assessed pooled OLS, fixed and random effects, as well as more robust Tobit and PPML estimator models. The random effects model found positive effects of Croatia-CEFTA integration evident in trade creation in imports, exports and total trade flows. Croatia-EU integration exhibits no significant effect of trade creation in neither imports, exports nor total trade flows. Nonetheless, there is a trade diversion effect in cases of imports and total trade flows. In the Tobit model CEFTA created trade in imports, exports and total trade flows, while the EU diverted trade in imports and total trade flows. Finally, the robust PPML estimator found that: (1) CEFTA membership created trade in imports, exports and total trade flows, and (2) the EU membership diverted trade in imports and exports, and created trade in total trade flows.

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Nankwenya, Bonface, Alexander Phiri, Abdi Khalil Edriss, Emmanuel Kaunda, Horace Phiri, and Sloans Chimatiro. "Determinants of Fish Trade Flows in Africa." Journal of Sustainable Development 11, no. 3 (May 30, 2018): 123. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/jsd.v11n3p123.

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Given that fish and fishery products are ranked among the most traded food commodities globally, with developing countries accounting for the bulk of the world’s fish exports, the analysis of fish trade flows is of key importance for any policy measure in the fisheries sector. This study evaluates the determinants of fish trade flows by applying the generalized gravity model. Using panel data covering a period of 14 years for 54 African countries, the gravity model is estimated using the Tobit regression to overcome estimation challenges in the presence of zero trade observations. The results suggest that a 1% increase in exporters’ GDP, importers’ GDP, population, exporters’ fish production, and countries sharing a common border increased fish trade flows by 8%, 14 %, 4%, 36% and 60%, respectively. On the other hand, importers’ fish production, and distance reduced fish trade flows by 5% and 17%, respectively. The results further shows that the belonging to ECOWAS, EAC, SADC and AMU has significantly enhanced intra-fish trade flows thereby contributing to gross trade creation for fish. The results indicate that the current demand for fish is very high such that current production is unable to meet the consumption needs. This calls for consolidated efforts in investment and development of the aquaculture sector as an alternative to the dwindling fish supplies from the wild environment. The findings also demonstrate the need for regional blocs to improve the transport networks on the continent by, among others, adopting a regional cooperation strategy centered on infrastructure development.

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Thu, Nguyen, and Tran Thanh. "Trade facilitation performance influences on ASEAN trade flows." Ekonomski horizonti 23, no. 3 (2021): 265–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/ekonhor2103275n.

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The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) considers trade facilitation as a driving force in forming a single market and a single production base. This paper constructs an ASEAN scorecard for measuring the performance of trade facilitation strategic plans by ASEAN member states. Next, a structural gravity model is used in the paper in order to estimate the trade facilitation performance influence on ASEAN trade flows. The fact that the indicator of easing Nontariff Barriers (NTBs) and institutional coordination, on the one hand, and the ASEAN member states' engagement indicator, on the other, had the highest enforcement scores in ASEAN in the period 2017-2019. Those two indicators also exert the biggest influence on ASEAN trade flows, especially ASEAN extra-regional trade.

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Adewuyi, Adeolu O., and Godwin Akpokodje. "Impact of Trade Reform on Nigeria's Trade Flows." International Trade Journal 24, no. 4 (October 14, 2010): 411–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2010.513642.

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14

Lewis, Logan T. "How Important Are Trade Prices for Trade Flows?" IMF Economic Review 65, no. 3 (August 2017): 471–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41308-017-0037-1.

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Mutreja, Piyusha, B. Ravikumar, Raymond Riezman, and Michael Sposi. "Price equalization, trade flows, and barriers to trade." European Economic Review 70 (August 2014): 383–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2014.05.005.

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Konar, M., Z. Hussein, N. Hanasaki, D. L. Mauzerall, and I. Rodriguez-Iturbe. "Virtual water trade flows and savings under climate change." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17, no. 8 (August 15, 2013): 3219–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3219-2013.

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Abstract. The international trade of food commodities links water and food systems, with important implications for both water and food security. The embodied water resources associated with food trade are referred to as "virtual water trade". We present the first study of the impact of climate change on global virtual water trade flows and associated savings for the year 2030. In order to project virtual water trade and savings under climate change, it is essential to obtain projections of both bilateral crop trade and the virtual water content of crops in each country of production. We use the Global Trade Analysis Project model to estimate bilateral crop trade under changes in agricultural productivity for rice, soy, and wheat. We use the H08 global hydrologic model to determine the impact of climatic changes to crop evapotranspiration for rice, soy, and wheat in each country of production. Then, we combine projections of bilateral crop trade with estimates of virtual water content to obtain virtual water trade flows under climate change. We find that the total volume of virtual water trade is likely to go down under climate change, due to decreased crop trade from higher crop prices under scenarios of declining crop yields and due to decreased virtual water content under high agricultural productivity scenarios. However, the staple food trade is projected to save more water across most climate change scenarios, largely because the wheat trade re-organizes into a structure where large volumes of wheat are traded from relatively water-efficient exporters to less efficient importers.

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Vebiyanto, Sony, and Hastarini Dwi Atmanti. "Impact of ASEAN Plus Five Free Trade Area: Trade Creation and Trade Diversion." Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan 20, no. 2 (January 15, 2023): 145–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.29259/jep.v20i2.18718.

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One of the ways to reduce international trade barriers is through the Free Trade Area (FTA). Collectively, ASEAN already has five FTAs with trading partners outside Southeast Asia. This study intends to analyze the effect of free trade agreements between ASEAN and China, South Korea, Japan, India, and Australia – New Zealand (ASEAN+5 FTA). The implications of an FTA are explained using the concepts of trade creation and trade diversion through economic integration. The trade gravity model is expanded with three dummy variables to determine whether trade creation and trade diversion occur in the formation of each of these FTAs. Static panel data regression is used to analyze the effect of Free Trade Agreements on intra-regional trade flows, export flows to non-members, and import flows from non-FTA members. The fixed effect model is applied to overcome endogeneity problems, while the PPML estimator is chosen to get the best estimation results amid heteroscedasticity and zero trade flow problems that usually occur in trade flows. Estimation results show that the trade creation effect occurs only in ACFTA and AIFTA, while other FTAs harm member countries through trade diversion. Therefore, further evaluation and efforts regarding the use of FTAs are needed to achieve the goals of FTAs.

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Bombardini, Matilde, Giovanni Gallipoli, and Germán Pupato. "Skill Dispersion and Trade Flows." American Economic Review 102, no. 5 (August 1, 2012): 2327–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.5.2327.

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Is skill dispersion a source of comparative advantage? In this paper we use microdata from the International Adult Literacy Survey to show that the effect of skill dispersion on trade flows is quantitatively similar to that of the aggregate endowment of human capital. In particular we investigate, and find support for, the hypothesis that countries with a more dispersed skill distribution specialize in industries characterized by lower complementarity of workers' skills. The result is robust to the introduction of controls for alternative sources of comparative advantage, as well as to alternative measures of industry-level skill complementarity. (JEL F14, F16, J24, J31)

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Blonigen, Bruce A., and Wesley W. Wilson. "Port Efficiency and Trade Flows*." Review of International Economics 16, no. 1 (December 28, 2007): 21–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2007.00723.x.

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Srivastava, Rajendra K., and Robert T. Green. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade Flows." Journal of Business 59, no. 4 (January 1986): 623. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/296358.

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Seyoum, Belay, and Juan Ramirez. "Economic freedom and trade flows." Journal of Economic Studies 46, no. 4 (August 5, 2019): 985–1006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-12-2017-0378.

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Purpose Economic freedom is the fundamental right of every person in a free society to control his/her own labor and property without government intervention beyond what is necessary to protect and maintain freedom itself. The purpose of this paper is to examine the association between economic freedom, inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade flows. Design/methodology/approach The authors test a moderated mediation model of the effects of economic freedom on trade flows with the objective of exploring the mediation effects of FDI and the moderating effects of government stability. Findings Based on a sample of 155 countries from different geographical areas, the study shows that economic freedom is associated with inward FDI, which, in turn, predicted trade flows. Furthermore, government stability moderated the relationship between economic freedom and FDI. Originality/value This study goes beyond the traditional focus on the macro determinants of trade flows and explores the link between economic freedom and trade flows, and the roles of inward FDI and political stability in the context of this relationship. It also provides a novel methodological approach to examine this relationship.

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Blomqvist, Hans C. "Explaining Trade Flows of Singapore." Asian Economic Journal 18, no. 1 (March 2004): 25–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8381.2004.00180.x.

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HOGUE, CHERYL. "TRADE ADVICE FLOWS ONCE MORE." Chemical & Engineering News 81, no. 29 (July 21, 2003): 21–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/cen-v081n029.p021.

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Cheung, Yin-Wong, Menzie D. Chinn, and XingWang Qian. "Are Chinese trade flows different?" Journal of International Money and Finance 31, no. 8 (December 2012): 2127–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.05.004.

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Neven, Damien J., and Lars-Hendrik Röller. "European integration and trade flows." European Economic Review 35, no. 6 (August 1991): 1295–309. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(91)90120-8.

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Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen. "Determinants of international trade flows." Journal of Development Economics 20, no. 1 (January 1986): 107–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(86)90007-6.

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Ebell, Monique. "Assessing the Impact of Trade Agreements on Trade." National Institute Economic Review 238 (November 2016): R31—R42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002795011623800113.

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One of the key issues facing the UK in the wake of the advisory referendum result to leave the European Union is the precise nature of its relationship with the European Union. At one extreme would be continued membership in the European Economic Area, including membership in the single market. Other options would be either no free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU at all or a less comprehensive FTA which stops short of single market membership. This paper compares the ability of EEA membership and less comprehensive FTAs to generate trade in goods and services. We investigate this question using empirical gravity model methodology and the most recent available data from 42 countries. We use recently developed econometric methods to deal with observations of zero trade flows and issues connected with endogeneity. The main finding is that while EEA membership is associated with substantial and statistically significant increases in bilateral services trade flows, membership in less comprehensive FTAs is not associated with any significant increase in bilateral services trade. For goods, EEA membership is associated with larger bilateral trade flows than are less comprehensive FTAs. These results suggest that it might be difficult to replace, on an exit from a European Union, lost trade flows with the EU by means of shallower FTAs with the EU or with third countries.

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Kikerkova, Irena, Elena Makrevska Disoska, Katerina Toshevska-Trpchevska, and Jasna Tonovska. "DETERMINANTS OF THE BILATERAL TRADE FLOWS OF NORTH MACEDONIA– A GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH." DIEM: Dubrovnik International Economic Meeting 6, no. 1 (September 2021): 98–107. http://dx.doi.org/10.17818/diem/2021/1.10.

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The paper makes an indetail overview of the structure of the trade exchange of goods of Macedonia and explores the determinants of its bilateral trade flows using the gravity model. The analysis includes data on 40 trade partners of Macedonia in the period from 2005-2019. The used variables in the model are: GDP per capita difference, population, distance and relative endowments of factors of production (capital, land and labour). In most of the analyzed regressions the coefficients on determinants such as GDP per capita difference and population are positive and their impact upon the bilateral trade (as dependent variable) is statistically significant. Intensity of Macedonian trade decreases in regard of the distance from a trade partner and increases in partner’s size – the country tends to trade more with lager countries. In our analysis we included three dummy variables such as: membership in the EU and in CEFTA-2006 and common language. The impact of the possible membership in the EU is clearly positive and statistically significant. Being a candidate country for full EU membership, Macedonia trades more with EU trade partners rather than with the neibouring countries, members of CEFTA-2006. Keywords: bilateral trade, gravity model, trade partners, Republic of North Macedonia, European Union, CEFTA-2006

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Lee, Jong-Wha, and Phillip Swagel. "Trade Barriers and Trade Flows Across Countries and Industries." International Finance Discussion Paper 1994, no. 476 (July 1994): 1–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/ifdp.1994.476.

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Nordås, Hildegunn K., and Dorothée Rouzet. "The Impact of Services Trade Restrictiveness on Trade Flows." World Economy 40, no. 6 (July 27, 2016): 1155–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/twec.12424.

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Lee, Jong-Wha, and Phillip Swagel. "Trade Barriers and Trade Flows across Countries and Industries." Review of Economics and Statistics 79, no. 3 (August 1997): 372–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/003465300556968.

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Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, Anamaria Sova, and Robert Sova. "Trade flows and trade specialisation: The case of China." China Economic Review 34 (July 2015): 261–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2015.03.010.

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Stojadinović-Jovanović, Sandra, Bojan Krstić, and Vladimir Radivojević. "New approach to trade and its coverage." Ekonomika 66, no. 3 (2020): 27–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/ekonomika2003027s.

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Contemporary trade flows increasingly take place via foreign direct investment flows, consequently we can no longer analyze them only classically, and through the prism of the existing methodology and statistic coverage. Therefore, the purpose of the paper is to point out the need for the new approach to trade flows and their coverage. The research has led to the setting up of a proposal for the new trade coverage, which, by including the primary trading channel, complements the existing, classic approach to trade flows and leads to more realistic trade picture. Only a real picture of trade flows may be adequate guidance to the economic and trade policy makers of the country in conducting these policies and making adequate strategic trade decisions.

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Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm. "Effect of Aid-for-Trade Flows on Investment-Oriented Remittance Flows." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 16, no. 2 (February 10, 2023): 110. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16020110.

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Despite the voluminous literature on the effect of aid-for-trade (AfT) flows on recipient countries’ trade performance, little is known about the relationship between AfT flows and other capital flows to developing countries. This paper contributes to the literature by exploring the effect of AfT inflows on investment-oriented remittance inflows, notably through the channel of trade costs. Using an unbalanced panel data set of 106 countries over the period 2002–2019 and the two-step system generalized method of moments, the empirical analysis establishes several outcomes. AfT flows exert a positive effect on investment-oriented remittance flows, where the magnitude of this positive effect is higher in least-developed countries and in remittance-dependent countries than in other countries. AfT flows stimulate investment-oriented remittance flows in countries that face higher trade costs. The analysis shows that AfT flows could be important leverages for stimulating investment-oriented remittance flows and could promote the development of the private sector in beneficiary countries.

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Delera, Michele, and Neil Foster-McGregor. "On PTAs and Bilateral Trade: Is GVC Trade Sensitive to the Breadth of Trade Policy Cooperation?" Economies 8, no. 4 (October 15, 2020): 84. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/economies8040084.

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We study the relationship between the scope of trade policy cooperation and bilateral trade flows with a particular focus on global value chain (GVC) trade using data on the core and non-core provisions included in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). We find that broader PTAs have a larger impact on trade flows involving intermediates relative to flows involving all products, suggesting that GVC trade is particularly sensitive to the scope of trade policy cooperation. We also investigate different dimensions of heterogeneity in PTAs. We find that core provisions tend to drive the effect of PTAs on the level of GVC trade and that PTAs are particularly effective in raising the level of GVC trade between developing economies. We explore these issues using a sample of 189 countries over the period 1990–2015, with data obtained from the latest release of the EORA multi-regional input–output tables and UN-COMTRADE data.

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CHEN, NATALIE, and DENNIS NOVY. "On the measurement of trade costs: direct vs. indirect approaches to quantifying standards and technical regulations." World Trade Review 11, no. 3 (July 2012): 401–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1474745612000183.

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AbstractIn this article, we review the literature on the measurement of trade costs in international trade with a special emphasis on non-tariff measures and in particular on standards and technical regulations. We distinguish ‘direct’ from ‘indirect’ approaches. The direct approach collects observable data or proxy variables on trade cost components which are then typically used as regressors in a gravity equation of trade. Instead, the indirect approach infers the extent of trade impediments from trade flows. It compares actual trade flows to the trade flows predicted by a hypothetical frictionless benchmark scenario based on a micro-founded trade model, attributing the deviation of actual from predicted trade flows to trade frictions. We argue that economists and policy-makers can gain useful insights from both approaches.

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Morrow, James D., Randolph M. Siverson, and Tressa E. Tabares. "The Political Determinants of International Trade: The Major Powers, 1907–1990." American Political Science Review 92, no. 3 (September 1998): 649–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2585487.

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We test three arguments about the effect of international politics on trade flows. The first argument states that trade flows are greater between states with similar interests than those with dissimilar interests, the second that trade flows are greater in democratic dyads than nondemocratic dyads, and the third that trade flows are greater between allies. We examine trade flows between the major powers from 1907 to 1990. This period provides variation on all three independent variables of interest and allows us to separate the three arguments empirically. We estimate a gravity model of trade with the above political variables added. Our results demonstrate that joint democracy and common interests increase trade in a dyad, but alliances generally do not, even when controlling for polarity of the system.

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Freeman, Richard B. "People Flows in Globalization." Journal of Economic Perspectives 20, no. 2 (May 1, 2006): 145–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.20.2.145.

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The policy debate over globalization in the past decade has largely bypassed the international mobility of labor. Restrict trade and cries of protectionism resound. Suggest linking labor standards to trade and it's protectionism in disguise. Limit capital flows and the International Monetary Fund is on your back. But restrict people flows? That's just an accepted exercise of national sovereignty! During the last few decades, when most countries reduced barriers to trade in goods and services and liberalized financial capital markets, most also sought to limit immigration. In this essay, I examine what we know about the causes and consequences of immigration. I argue that people flows are fundamental to creating a global economy and that the interplay among immigration, capital and trade is essential to understanding the way globalization affects economies. I consider ways to reduce barriers to immigration that could improve the well-being of workers around the world.

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KRPEC, OLDRICH, and VLADAN HODULAK. "War and international trade: Impact of trade disruption on international trade patterns and economic development." Brazilian Journal of Political Economy 39, no. 1 (March 2019): 152–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0101-35172019-2854.

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ABSTRACT The disruptions of trade flows due to military conflicts leads to changes in economic structures of countries, to the subsequent changes in trade policies, and to the changes of established trade patterns with impact on position of countries in international trade system. This paper deals with three modern time’s conflicts: Napoleonic Wars, WWI and WWII. We argue that the changes resulting from the disruption of trade flows itself, leads to changes and shifts which are relatively permanent, independent on outcomes of the conflicts for individual countries, and do significantly affect regions which did not take part in the conflict.

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Ramaswamy, Sunder, Abishek Choutagunta, and Santosh Kumar Sahu. "Evaluating Asian Free Trade Agreements: What Does Gravity Model Tell Us?" Foreign Trade Review 56, no. 1 (November 2, 2020): 60–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0015732520961330.

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This paper evaluates the performance of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) by analysing the determinants of trade flows of Asian economies for a panel of 31 countries during 2007–2014 using a Gravity model. The estimated results suggest that certain FTAs negatively contribute to trade flows across the region and, that GDP and population, among other factors, can explain total trade flows. This study also finds that trade costs using distance as a proxy has a significant and negative effect on trade. Our results are in-line with the expectations which can be drawn by looking at trends of trade flows in Asia. Thus, a case is attempted for smoothening trade-flows across the region by reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers, pumping in investments on transport infrastructure and improving productivity of the partners as a whole which has positive effects on GDP and thus trade. JEL Codes: F13, F14, C23

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Liu, Jing, Yu Zhang, and Zhongbo Yu. "Evaluation of Physical and Economic Water-Saving Efficiency for Virtual Water Flows Related to Inter-Regional Crop Trade in China." Sustainability 10, no. 11 (November 21, 2018): 4308. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10114308.

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If products were traded from regions with relatively high water productivity to regions with relatively low water productivity, water saving could be achieved. In this study, two indices—physical water-saving efficiency (volume of water savings per cubic meter of virtual water flows) and economic water-saving efficiency (value of water savings per cubic meter of virtual water flows considering water right trading)—were proposed to analyze the efficiency of inter-regional virtual water flows related to crop trade in China. Results indicated that the volume of inter-regional virtual water flows was 1.61 × 109 m3, more than 90% of which was occupied by oil-bearing crops, cereals, and beans. In terms of physical efficiency, only cereals and vegetables presented negative values. All kinds of crop trades were economically efficient, while most crops’ economic water-saving efficiency was less than 10 × 103 Yuan/m3. The application of advanced water-saving technologies, the cultivation of new crop varieties, the adjustment of regional cropping patterns, or consumption and trade patterns, could contribute to more water savings and higher physical water-saving efficiency, while the possible social, economic, and environmental tradeoffs should be considered simultaneously. Water right trading and virtual water compensation could contribute to sustainable water consumption, and full-cost pricing should be adapted in the future.

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Lohi, Julie. "The Implications of HO and IRS Theories in Bilateral Trade Flows within Sub-Saharan Africa." Global Economy Journal 13, no. 2 (June 2013): 175–202. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/gej-2012-0020.

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Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries tend to trade less among themselves. This article analyzes the driving forces of bilateral trades within the SSA region. To do so, I use the gravity equations from Evenett and Keller (2002) and study what trade theories, the Heckscher–Ohlin theory of factor abundance or the increasing return to scale theory of product differentiation, account for the bilateral trade flows within this region. My results indicate that trades within this region do not arise from factor abundance or product differentiation. Trade policies that are aimed to promote trade within the region (i.e. FTA, custom unions) are likely to fail, because SSA countries produce similar homogeneous products. The key factor for economic success from international trade for the SSA region relies on how to manufacture products in different varieties and how to export their comparative advantage goods outside the region.

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Sheikh, Muhammad Ramzan, Imran Sharif Chaudhry, Naila Gul, and Muhammad Hanif Akhtar. "Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Flows: A Panel Data Analysis." Review of Economics and Development Studies 4, no. 2 (December 30, 2018): 247–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.26710/reads.v4i2.409.

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This study analyzes the institutional determinants of bilateral trade flows and homogeneity effect for Pakistan with ECO countries by using panel data for years 2003-2014. Gravity trade model is estimated through panel least squares technique. Impact of institutions is very important for international trade as international businesses involve many governance systems. The results show that average impact of institutional quality and bilateral trade flows is positive. Moreover, institutional homogeneity effect exhibits that bilateral trade flows are positively related with the governance similarity. Thus, institutional quality and institutional homogeneity has dominant impact on the bilateral trade flows.

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Knuth, Melinda J., Hayk Khachatryan, Charles R. Hall, Marco A. Palma, Alan W. Hodges, Ariana P. Torres, and Robin G. Brumfield. "Trade Flows within the United States Nursery Industry in 2018." Journal of Environmental Horticulture 39, no. 2 (June 1, 2021): 77–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.24266/0738-2898-39.2.77.

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Abstract This study is a continuation of the series of summaries by the Green Industry Research Consortium examining the regional trade flows in the U.S. nursery industry. This detailed analysis of green industry regional trade flows in eight U.S. regions compares 2018 data with those of the 2008 and 2013 national survey estimates of origin and destination (OD) information to sales data. Specifically, we discuss: 1) regional annual sales reported by the green industry firms in 2018, 2) the percentage distribution of OD trade flows by regions and states, 3) differences in the percentage distribution of OD trade flows during the 5-year period by region (2013 to 2018), and 4) differences in the percentage distribution of OD trade flows during the 10-year period by region (2008 to 2018) for both intra-state (within home state) and inter-regional (between states) trade flows. The OD trade flow results were compared with those of 2008 and 2013. The results show considerable changes in intra-state and inter-regional trade flows from 2013 to 2018. From 2008 to 2018, only the Southcentral region increased in the proportion of sales within the region. Implications for relevant green industry stakeholders are discussed.

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MELTZER, JOSHUA P. "Governing Digital Trade." World Trade Review 18, S1 (April 2019): S23—S48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1474745618000502.

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AbstractAs global data flows and digital technologies transform international trade, governments and regulators have to determine how to benefit from these developments while maintaining the integrity of their domestic regulations. Currently, governments are increasingly restricting global data flows and requiring data localization, undermining the economic benefits of digital trade. To address this trend will require a system of digital trade governance that has two key elements. One element is new digital trade rules, some of which exist in the WTO and others which are being developed in free trade agreements. The other is international regulatory cooperation to develop standards and mutual recognition agreements in areas such as privacy and consumer protection that gives domestic regulators confidence that allowing data to leave their jurisdiction will not undermine achievement of domestic regulatory goals. In the absence of such regulatory cooperation, governments are likely to continue to restrict data flows, relying on the exceptions provisions to their digital trade commitments.

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Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm. "Effect of Aid for Trade Unpredictability on Trade Policy in Recipient-Countries." Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice 19, no. 2 (October 14, 2019): 177–203. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0976747919876708.

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This article examines the effect of the unpredictability of Aid for Trade (AfT) flows on trade policy in 124 recipient-countries, of which 42 are least developed countries (LDCs), over the period 2002–2016. The analysis shows that while AfT flows exert a positive effect on trade policy liberalisation, AfT unpredictability induces the adoption of restrictive trade policies. These results apply to LDCs and other countries, although the magnitude of the negative effect of AfT unpredictability on trade policy liberalisation is higher for LDCs than for other countries. Furthermore, AfT unpredictability reduces the positive trade policy liberalisation effect of AfT flows. JEL: F13, F14, F35

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Ramirez-Vallejo, J., and P. Rogers. "Virtual water flows and trade liberalization." Water Science and Technology 49, no. 7 (April 1, 2004): 25–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2004.0407.

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The linkages between agricultural trade and water resources need to be identified and analyzed to better understand the potential impacts that a full liberalization, or lack thereof, will have on water resources. This paper examines trade of virtual water embodied in agricultural products for most countries of the world. The main purpose of the paper, however, is to examine the impact of trade liberalization on virtual-water trade in the future. Based on a simulation of global agricultural trade, a scenario of full liberalization of agriculture was used to assess the net effect of virtual water flows from the relocation of meat and cereals’ trade. The paper also identifies the main reasons behind the changes in the magnitude and direction of the net virtual water trade over time, and shows that virtual water trade flows are independent of water resource endowments, contrary to what the Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem states. Finally, based on a formal model, some input demand functions at the country level are estimated. The estimates of the income and agricultural support elasticities of demand for import of virtual water have the expected sign, and are statistically significant. Variables found to have some explanatory power of the variance of virtual water imports are average income; population; agriculture as value added; irrigated area, and exports of goods and services.

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Benzarti, Youssef, and Alisa Tazhitdinova. "Do Value-Added Taxes Affect International Trade Flows? Evidence from 30 Years of Tax Reforms." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 13, no. 4 (November 1, 2021): 469–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pol.20190492.

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This paper uses all value-added tax (VAT) changes across EU Member States from 1988 to 2016 to estimate the effect of VATs on trade flows. We find small elasticities of trade flows with respect to VATs, even when VAT changes are large. These elasticities are substantially smaller than the elasticities of trade flows with respect to tariffs estimated in the trade literature. This finding holds across different time periods, countries, and types of reforms. Our results imply that VATs are unlikely to distort trade flows. (JEL F13, F14, H25, H87)

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Tsurumi, Tetsuya, Shunsuke Managi, and Akira Hibiki. "Do Environmental Regulations Increase Bilateral Trade Flows?" B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy 15, no. 4 (October 1, 2015): 1549–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/bejeap-2014-0164.

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Abstract The argument that stringent environmental regulations are generally thought to harm export flows is crucial when determining policy recommendations related to environmental preservation and international competitiveness. By using bilateral trade data, we examine the relationships between trade flows and various environmental stringency indices. Previous studies have used energy intensity, abatement cost intensity, and survey indices for regulations as proxies for the strictness of environmental policy. However, they have overlooked the indirect effect of environmental regulations on trade flows. If the strong version of the Porter hypothesis is confirmed, we need to consider the effect of environmental regulation on gross domestic product (GDP), because GDP induced by environmental regulation affects trade flows. The present study clarifies the effects of regulation on trade flows by distinguishing between the indirect and direct effects. Our results indicate an observed non-negligible indirect effect of regulation, implying that the overall effect of appropriate regulation benefits trade flows.

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Hooton, Christopher. "Patterns in International Digital Trade Flows." International Journal of Interdisciplinary Global Studies 14, no. 1 (2019): 37–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.18848/2324-755x/cgp/v14i01/37-54.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Trade flows'

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