Journal articles on the topic 'Trade diversion effect'
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1
Freckleton, Marie, and Patrice Whitely. "Can trade agreements among small countries create trade?" International Journal of Development Issues 19, no. 2 (April 16, 2020): 205–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijdi-06-2019-0110.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of a regional trade agreement among a group of small island developing states on trade creation and trade diversion. Design/methodology/approach An augmented gravity model and panel data are used to estimate the trade creation and trade diversion effects. The generalized method of moments technique is used to account for possible endogeneity. Country pair and time fixed effects are also included. Findings The regional trade agreement had a positive effect on intra-regional trade creation, but there was no significant diversion of imports from extra-regional trade partners. Practical implications Small developing economies can benefit from regional trade agreements (RTAs) among themselves. The trade diversion effects of such agreements are likely to be limited. Originality/value To the best of authors’ knowledge, this is the only paper which investigates the impact of RTAs among small island developing states.
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Xiang, Hongjin, Zheng Zhan, and Mingyong Lai. "The trade destruction effect and trade diversion effect of RMB appreciation." Frontiers of Economics in China 6, no. 3 (August 19, 2011): 479–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11459-011-0143-3.
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Deng, Chuang. "Analysis of Trade Diversion Effect Under Sino-us Trade Friction - Taking Developing Countries and Developed Countries As Examples." E3S Web of Conferences 275 (2021): 01031. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202127501031.
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Under the background of sino-us trade friction, what kind of trade diversion effect will china produce to the third country market. Based on the monthly import and export data of China and its 11 major trading partners from January 2014 to December 2019, this paper analyzes the trade diversion of sino-us trade frictions to China’s neighboring countries by using the double-difference and panel quantile methods, and through the selection of developing countries and developed countries as a control group for the spillover effects of trade transfer analysis. Empirical analysis: under the background of China’s trade frictions, China’s imports and exports to the United States have been significantly negatively affected, the trade conflict between China and the United States has a significant trade diversion effect on the third country, and the spillover effect on the developing country is larger and longer-term than that on the developed country.
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Jošić, Hrvoje, and Maja Bašić. "Trade creation and trade diversion effects from Croatia’s CEFTA and EU membership." Ekonomski pregled 72, no. 4 (2021): 489–521. http://dx.doi.org/10.32910/ep.72.4.1.
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This paper provides a detailed empirical study of trade creation and trade diversion effects arising from Croatia's two regional trade agreements, the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) and the European Union (the EU). It offers a foundation for discussion about future trade policies in terms of benefits and drawbacks from those regional trade agreements. Croatia’s imports, exports and total trade flows with 180 trading partner countries were examined for the period of 2000 – 2016. Cross-country panel regression using gravity model of international trade assessed pooled OLS, fixed and random effects, as well as more robust Tobit and PPML estimator models. The random effects model found positive effects of Croatia-CEFTA integration evident in trade creation in imports, exports and total trade flows. Croatia-EU integration exhibits no significant effect of trade creation in neither imports, exports nor total trade flows. Nonetheless, there is a trade diversion effect in cases of imports and total trade flows. In the Tobit model CEFTA created trade in imports, exports and total trade flows, while the EU diverted trade in imports and total trade flows. Finally, the robust PPML estimator found that: (1) CEFTA membership created trade in imports, exports and total trade flows, and (2) the EU membership diverted trade in imports and exports, and created trade in total trade flows.
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Gaurav, Kumar, and Nalin Bharti. "Some Common Lessons from Uncommon FTAs." South Asia Economic Journal 20, no. 1 (March 2019): 138–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1391561418824479.
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The present study endeavours to observe the trade creation and trade diversion effects of three free trade agreements (FTAs) in Asia, namely, India–Japan CEPA (IJCEPA), India–Sri Lanka FTA (ISFTA), and India–Bhutan FTA (IBFTA). The article aims to evaluate three uncommon FTAs that include developing–developed, developing–developing and developing–least developed countries. The objective is to evaluate the effects of these FTAs on exports and draw lessons for both the contracting parties and for other economies to commence FTAs that promote trade liberalization. This paper also aims to debunk the myth that FTAs between developing-least developed countries is not beneficial for the developing or least developed counterpart. The study applies augmented gravity model to capture the trade creation and trade diversion effects. The results confirm that ISFTA and IBFTA have trade creation effect, while in case of IJCEPA, there is trade diversion. These bilateral agreements can open the ways for multilateral trade liberalization in the long-run. JEL : F10, F13, F14
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Nawaz Hakro, Ahmed, and Syed Hasanat Shah. "Economic Rationale, Trade Impact and Extent of Antidumping – A Case Study of Pakistan." LAHORE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS 12, no. 1 (January 1, 2007): 79–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.35536/lje.2007.v12.i1.a4.
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This paper has analyzed the economic and political justification, trade impact and extent of antidumping measures initiated by Pakistan. Screening models for anti-predatory behaviour, Herfindahl-Hireshmann Index (HHI) for concentration and descriptive statistical measures are used to test the antidumping (AD) behaviour. The results are consistent with the earlier literature that AD duties have both a trade reduction and diversion effect. It is evident from the results in half of the cases studied that an economic rationale has been followed in the application of AD duties in Pakistan. Although the number of AD cases is limited, Pakistan has emerged as one of the intensive users of AD, relative to its total import share. It is also evident from the fact that intensive use of AD reduces trade and increases trade barriers, similarly, trade diversion reduces the chances of trade reduction. The key message emerging from this research is that trade diversion persists and in some cases trade diversion is substantial and it offsets the effect of AD measures on named countries to the benefit of non-named countries.
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Mareta, Bernadheta Mia Tri. "The Impact of ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Agreements on Indonesian Export of Manufacturing Goods." ETIKONOMI 17, no. 2 (August 10, 2018): 161–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.15408/etk.v17i2.7342.
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Along with an attempt to promote the export performance of manufacturing goods, the number of investigation about the potential benefit or harm of free trade agreements is still weak in Indonesia. This paper highlights the effect of ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Agreement (AKFTA) on Indonesian export of manufacturing products since AKFTA as one of the significant initiatives in Southeast Asia is expected to boost Indonesian export. By using augmented gravity models with panel data, this paper investigates the presence of trade creation and trade diversion effects on Indonesian export with 20 trading partners, covering a 26-year period from 1990-2015. Fixed effects with least square dummy variable (LSDV) models are applied to tackle the endogeneity problems of FTA by controlling the unobserved heterogeneity. The results showed that trade diversion outweighs trade creation effects in almost all categories, confirming a decrease in export from member to non-member countries.DOI: 10.15408/etk.v17i2.7342
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Ji, Seongtae, and JeongHo Yoo. "A study on the changes of agricultural import structure according to implementation of FTAs in South Korea." Journal of Korea Trade 22, no. 1 (March 5, 2018): 2–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jkt-01-2018-0001.
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Purpose South Korea has signed and implemented 15 free trade agreements (FTAs) with 52 countries. More than 80 percent of imports of agricultural products came from FTA partner countries in 2015. We can say that South Korea entered the era of an opening in agricultural import sector. It means that FTA is an important factor in causing changes in agricultural imports. As a result of the implementation of the FTA, tariff cuts and other changes in trade conditions could lead to an increase in imports of agricultural products from FTA partner country or diversity of partners. South Korea has implemented 15 FTAs so far, each with a different period of implementation, different scale of trade, and different major trade items. This means that each FTA will have a different size and type of impact on the changes in the import structure. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to analyze how the FTA actually affected agricultural imports and what type of impact each FTA had. Especially, the authors focused on the effects of trade creation and diversion to analyze the patterns of structural changes in the import of agricultural products according to the implementation of FTAs. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the authors analyzed both trade creation and trade diversion effect through the poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood method based on the previous research gravity model of Magee (2008, p. 353) and Yang and Martinez-Zarzoso (2014, p. 144). The biggest improvement compared to the standard gravity model is that all variables such as GDP, population, and distance are removed. This model cannot be regarded as a gravity model because the basic parameters of gravity model such as GDP, population, distance are excluded, but it can be said that the fixed effect variables replace the basic parameter of the gravity model. Findings According to the analysis, the authors found that the effects of trade creation were apparent in the early stages of FTA implementation before 2011 and the effect of the trade transition was seen in the mid-FTA transition period after 2011. The authors also clarified the pattern of structural changes in the agricultural imports of each FTAs. It is shown that the change in agricultural import structures was more apparent in major FTAs like the Korea-ASEAN, Korea-EU, and Korea-US FTA. In other words, the effects of trade creation and trade diversion in these FTAs were found to be statistically significant. Research limitations/implications The limitations of this study are as follows. First, as multiple FTAs are implemented simultaneously, the effects of individual FTA can be offset. Second, the FTA effect of each item was not reflected, because it was analyzed based on the amount of imports by country. Third, the effect of the trade between the partners was not reflected. Therefore, future studies need to add or supplement these limitations. Practical implications This paper demonstrated through an empirical analysis that the FTA directly affects changes in agricultural import structure. And it proved that the period of FTA implementation, items imported from FTA partner countries, and the size of imports affected the structure of agricultural imports. Of course, changes in the domestic consumption patterns, changes in the supply and demand, conditions of quarantine inspection, and preference of importers are also factors that affect the structure of agricultural imports. It is expected that the effect of trade creation and the effect of trade diversion in agricultural import will be more significant when tariff rates are further decreased due to FTA implementation and domestic demand of agricultural product rises as a result of an economic recovery. As the FTA directly affects changes in agricultural imports, it should be carefully dealt with when signing a new FTA or improving the existing ones. And appropriate measures should be taken to minimize damages to the domestic agricultural sector due to changes in the import structure of agricultural products. Originality/value This paper fulfils an identified need to do research what kinds of effect occurred after FTA implementation in the agricultural sector. An empirical analysis was conducted on the effects of trade creation and diversion of agricultural products, based on the actual results of bilateral trade between the 50 major importers of agricultural products, including the 30 FTA partner countries.
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Jungu Kang, Seung-jin Shim, and 김태진. "Trade Creation and Diversion Effect of Korea-China FTA on Service Trade in Value Added." KUKJE KYUNGJE YONGU 23, no. 1 (March 2017): 1–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.17298/kky.2017.23.1.001.
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Tien, Thinh Bui, and Hung Tran Van. "Assessing economic development through trade relations and educational markets integration (the case of Vietnam within ACFTA)." E3S Web of Conferences 210 (2020): 13016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202021013016.
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This paper applies the gravity model of trade with panel database to assess the impact of ACFTA on the export and import of ACFTA’s members from 2001 to 2018. The database was taken from World Bank Database, International Trade Center and CEPII Research and Expertise on The World Economy. The estimation results review that ACFTA has positive trade creation and trade diversion effect on the export of all ACFTA’s members including Vietnam, ACFTA does play a pivotal role in the intra – regional export and extra – regional export of Vietnam and other ACFTA’s members. Furthermore, within the scope of the paper, compared to other FTA of ASEAN, the magnitude of trade creation of ACFTA is considerably large. This is consistent with the fact that China is gradually becoming a fundamental trade partner with ASEAN and Vietnam in particular. Contrary to the positive effect of ACFTA on members’ export, the estimation results show that ACFTA is causing negative trade diversion effect on the import of ASEAN members within ACFTA including Vietnam. This is in line with the fact that ASEAN and Vietnam in particular have been running trade deficit with China since 2010 at the expense of import from other trading partners, and the trade deficit has been increasing since ACFTA came into full effect.
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Khorana, Sangeeta, and Badri G. Narayanan. "Modelling Effects of Tariff Liberalisation on India’s Key Export Sectors: Analysis of the EU–India Free Trade Agreement." Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research 11, no. 1 (February 2017): 1–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0973801016676016.
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Trade agreements are increasingly being negotiated between developed and emerging economy partners. An example is the EU–India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) for which negotiations began in 2007. There has been a debate on the potential effects of the proposed FTA and how this can impact on India’s key export sectors. Our study addresses this aspect from a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling perspective. Using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) framework, we analyse trade and welfare impacts of the proposed FTA between the EU and India. Two scenarios are modelled: first, complete and immediate elimination of tariff on all goods traded and second, selective tariff elimination on textiles, wearing apparel and leather goods—products in which India has a comparative advantage. Results under both scenarios show that India enjoys positive welfare effects though there is a possibility of trade diversion. Under scenario 1, India loses due to a negative terms of trade (ToT) effect. Under scenario 2, with selective sectoral liberalisation, gains are mainly concentrated in the textiles, wearing apparel and leather sectors. There is a positive output effect from change in demand for factors of production, suggesting that the proposed FTA could lead to relocation of labour-intensive production to India. JEL Classification: F15, F47, F62
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Jordaan, Andre Cillie, and Patrick Kanda. "Analysing the trade effects of the EU-SA & SADC trading agreements: a panel data approach." South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences 14, no. 2 (June 6, 2011): 229–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/sajems.v14i2.56.
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This study investigates the trade effects of the EU-SA and SADC preferential trade agreements of which South Africa is a member. Using a panel data estimation of the gravity model of bilateral trade and based on data from 1994 to 2008, the study finds the EU-SA preferential trade agreement to have a significant trade expansion effect. The study further reveals that an informative conclusion on trade effects of the SADC preferential trade agreement can only be reached once the agreement has been fully operational. The study also recommends that trade policy in South Africa should increasingly be geared towards broad-based multilateral liberalisation. In addition, South Africa should promote regional economic stability and development through supporting regional trade agreements initiatives. Keywords: Trade creation, trade diversion, preferential trade agreement, panel data estimation, gravity model of bilateral trade
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Susanto, Dwi, C. Parr Rosson, and Flynn J. Adcock. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the North American Free Trade Agreement: The Case of the Agricultural Sector." Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 39, no. 1 (April 2007): 121–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1074070800022793.
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This paper examines the effect of the U.S.-Mexico trade agreement under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The results suggest that U.S. agricultural imports from Mexico have been responsive to tariff rate reductions applied to Mexican products. A one percentage point decrease in tariff rates is associated with an increase in U.S. agricultural imports from Mexico by 5.31% in the first 6 years of NAFTA and by 2.62% in the last 6 years of NAFTA. U.S. imports from Mexico have also been attributable to the pre-NAFTA tariff rates. Overall, the results indicate that the U.S-Mexico trade agreement under NAFTA has been trade creating rather than trade diverting.
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Nur Mahdi, Naufal, Suharno, and Rita Nurmalina. "TRADE CREATION DAN TRADE DIVERSION ATAS PEMBERLAKUAN ACFTA TERHADAP PERDAGANGAN HORTIKULTURA INDONESIA." Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan 15, no. 1 (July 15, 2021): 51–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v15i1.489.
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Abstrak
Dampak positif seharusnya diperoleh subsektor hortikultura Indonesia atas implementasi ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA). Namun demikian, subsektor hortikultura Indonesia belum memberikan kinerja yang berarti ketika impor produk hortikultura meningkat melalui tahapan penurunan tarif ACFTA dalam program The Early Harvest Program (EHP). Studi ini meneliti keragaan impor hortikultura Indonesia dengan menggunakan deskriptif analisis. Studi ini juga menganalisis daya saing produk hortikultura negara ASEAN-5 dengan China serta dampak kreasi perdagangan dan diversi perdagangan atas pemberlakuan ACFTA terhadap impor produk hortikultura Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode RSCA (Revealed Symetric Comparative Advantage) dan metode ekonometrik melalui pendekatan model gravitasi dengan data panel dari tahun 2001-2018. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa berdasarkan nilai RSCA, Indonesia tidak berdaya saing pada kedua jenis produk hortikultura tersebut. Model gravitasi juga menunjukkan bahwa negara anggota ACFTA mampu memanfaatkan perjanjian regional ini dengan ditandai tingginya nilai impor hortikultura Indonesia terutama dari China. Ini menandakan bahwa pelaksanaan ACFTA telah menciptakan efek penciptaan perdagangan dengan meningkatkan perdagangan intra-regional antara negara anggota ACFTA, namun tidak menyebabkan pengalihan perdagangan dengan negara non-anggota (perdagangan dengan negara non anggota tidak mengalami penurunan). Oleh karena itu, diperlukan langkah kebijakan peningkatan daya saing melalui perbaikan komponen manajerial dan teknologi seiring terbukanya pasar di kawasan ini bagi UMKM Indonesia.
Kata Kunci: Data Panel, Daya Saing, Integrasi Ekonomi, Model Gravitasi, RSCA
Abstract
The positive impact of the implementation of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) on the indonesia’s horticulture sub-sector should be obtained. However, the Indonesian horticulture sub-sector has not shown significant performance when import of horticultural products has increased through the ACFTA tariff reduction stages in The Early Harvest Programm (EHP). This study examines the performance of Indonesian horticultural imports using descriptive analysis. It also analyzes the competitiveness of horticultural products of ASEAN-5 countries with China as well as the impact of trade creation and trade diversion of the implementation of ACFTA on imports of Indonesian horticultural products. It uses the RSCA (Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage) index and the gravity model using panel data from 2001-2018. It shows that Indonesia is not competitive in both types of horticultural products (RSCA <0). The gravity model also indicates that ACFTA member countries have taken advantage of this regional agreement, marked by the high value of Indonesian horticultural imports, especially from China. This shows that the implementation of the ACFTA has created a trade creation effect by increasing intra-regional trade between ACFTA member countries, but has not led to a diversion of trade with non-member countries (trade with non-member countries has not decreased). Therefore, it is necessary to make policy strategies to increase competitiveness through improvements in managerial and technological components in line with the opening of the market in this region to Indonesian MSMEs.
Keywords: Competitiveness, Economic Integration, Gravity Model, Panel Data, RSCA
JEL Classification: F15, F17, Q17
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Lubin, Mawar. "THE EFFECT OF MULTILATERALISM, REGIONALISM, AND OPEN REGIONALISM TOWARDS EXPORTS: ASEAN-5 STUDY CASE." Journal of Developing Economies 1, no. 2 (February 21, 2017): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.20473/jde.v1i2.3293.
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Conceptually elimination or reduction of trade barriers through a Regional Trading Arrangement would increase export and import in the region. Trade diversion would take effect and make member countries buy each other goods and services that become cheaper. Open regionalism is another regionalism concept in which the parties involved promise to extend lower tariffs concession not only to member countries but also to other trading parters. This will hinder member countries to reap the benefit of trade diversion. This study examines the effect of Regionalism (afterAFTA was fully effective) and Open Regionalism (after Open Regionalism was fully effective for more developed APEC members) on ASEAN-5 countries’ export. Using ARIMAX model, the results show that regionalism has a significant yet negative effect on Malaysia and The Philippines and a positive significant effect on Singapore, whereas it is not significant for Indonesia and Thailand’s exports. Open regionalism is shown to be not significant for Indonesia, Thailand, and The Philippines exports but it has a negative significant impact for Singapore and Malaysia’s exports.
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Jagdambe, Subhash, and Shaikh Mohd Mouzam. "Evaluating the Trade, Revenue and Welfare Implication of Plantation Crops under ASEAN–India FTA." Journal of Asian Economic Integration 1, no. 2 (September 2019): 224–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2631684619882864.
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This article examines the impact of ASEAN–India Free Trade Agreement on India’s special products categories, namely, coffee, tea and pepper based on partial equilibrium model. The Software for Market Analysis and Restrictive Trade (SMART) model has been used to estimate the trade creation (TC) and trade diversion (TD) effect, revenue effect and welfare effect for the above-mentioned commodities. The results from the SMART simulation analysis indicate that the increase in trade for both the scenarios is mainly driven by TC rather than TD. Further, the study also assesses how the total trade effect is distributed across the major ASEAN countries for each commodity and found that Indonesia and Vietnam are the biggest gainers in terms of TC effect in both the scenarios. JEL Classification: F13, F15, Q1
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Nowbutsing, Baboo M. "Winners and Losers in Customs Unions: An Experimental Investigation." Journal of Education and Vocational Research 2, no. 2 (August 15, 2011): 49–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jevr.v2i2.25.
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In the context of a Competitive Ricardian Model (CRM), one can ask whether it is possible to relate winners and losers from a CU based on comparative advantage considerations. This was pursued by Venables (2003), who showed that careful consideration of a country’s comparative advantage – with the rest of the world relative to that with its partners in the CU- yields predictions about winners and losers. Starting from initial tariff equilibrium, in a 3 country model with a continuum of goods, he shows that a country with ‘extreme’ comparative advantage will be more vulnerable to trade diversion. In this experiment, the 3 x 3 Competitive Ricardian Model (CRM) in two scenarios multiple import tariffs and a customs union. We fully characterise the equilibrium under both. Starting from a tariff distorted situation, we find that when a customs union is formed there is an increase in trade flows among members; a rise in individual consumption of some goods; a clear terms of trade effect and the existence of trade diversion. Our experimental results support the simulation findings of Venables (2003), who showed that countries which have ‘extreme’ comparative advantage in a customs union will generally be more vulnerable to trade diversion.
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Gurova, I. "Theoretical model of the Trade integration in the CiS region." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 1 (January 20, 2014): 130–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2014-1-130-143.
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The paper analyzes the main tenets of economic integration theory in order to reveal the features of the CIS regional integration and propose approaches of its theoretical model development. Quantitative methods have been used to assess the effects of creation and trade diversion, the relationship between bilateral exports, investment and technology exchange. It is established that the integration of the CIS deviates from the traditional model. At the lower stage it is accompanied by deepening cooperation in various sectors that have an effect on trade integration. Thus in contrast to the model of the European Union, it is a “non-linear” one. It is argued that the integration policy in the CIS region must be changed: more attention should be paid to the investment and trade agenda instead of trade.
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Burfisher, Mary E., Sherman Robinson, and Karen Thierfelder. "The Impact of NAFTA on the United States." Journal of Economic Perspectives 15, no. 1 (February 1, 2001): 125–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.15.1.125.
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We describe the main economic arguments posed for and against the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) during the U.S. policy debate. To evaluate these arguments, we analyze recent trade data and survey post-NAFTA studies. We find that both the U.S. and Mexico benefit from NAFTA, with much larger relative benefits for Mexico. NAFTA also has had little effect on the U.S. labor market. These results confirm the consensus opinion of economists at the time of the debate. Finally, studies find that trade creation greatly exceeds trade diversion in the region under NAFTA, especially in intermediate goods.
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Mandal, Avijit. "Welfare Effect of Free Trade Agreements: A Theoretical Note." Foreign Trade Review 54, no. 2 (March 17, 2019): 115–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0015732519831806.
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Kemp and Wan (1976, Journal of International Economics, 6(1), 95–97) show that customs unions can be welfare enhancing if the imports from the rest of the world (ROW) by the union members are fixed both before and after the formation of the union. This note extends their argument to the case of (a) two small open economies (SOEs) joining a free trade agreement (FTA) and (b) a single SOE joining a pre-existing FTA among similar economies. The particular compensation principle considered is the one suggested by Grinols (1981, Journal of International Economics, 11(2), 259–266). According to this argument, welfare gain is ensured if tariff revenue rises in the post-FTA situation. For our case, this compensation principle translates to the following: welfare gain can be ensured only when import from ROW (with whom the FTA was not signed) rises. Since this will amount to a (meaningless) negative trade diversion effect in the context of the FTA, the source of any such revenue rise has to be external. The general conclusion of the article is therefore that it may be impossible for an FTA per se to ensure increased welfare for SOEs. JEL Codes: F13, F15
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Amir, Faizal, and Idah Zuhroh. "THE IMPACTS OF AFTA-COMMON EFFECTIVE PREFERENTIAL TARIFFS ON THE TRADE DIVERSION AND TRADE CREATION OF SYNTHETIC RUBBER AND FACTICE FROM OIL IN INDONESIA." Muhammadiyah International Journal of Economics and Business 1, no. 1 (December 10, 2018): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.23917/mijeb.v1i1.7299.
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Rubber and its products are one of the exported commodities listed in Indonesia’s ten primary exported commodities (Ministry of Trade 2015). Different from other rubber products, the impor of synthetic rubber and factice from oil have increased significantly since the establishment of the AFTA-CEPT with approximately 7 thousand registered products in the Inclusion List (IL) in 2002. This study aimed to analyze the competitiveness of synthetic rubber and factice krom oil among the members of AFTA countries and analyze the impacts of trade creation and Trade diversion on the implementation of the CEPT-AFTA on synthetic rubber and factice oil krom Indonesia, particularly in the 11 countries of origin of imports during the period from 2001 to 2013 by using a gravity model, which was analyzed using static data panel. Based on the results of RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage), the competitiveness of synthetic rubber and factice oil from Indonesia is very low among four ASEAN countries, while Thailand is the top exporting countries in ASEAN region. The results of the panel data analysis showing variables which have positive influence are Indonesia’s real GDP and real GDP of the country of origin of imports, while variables with negative effect are economic distance and Indonesia’s real exchange rate compared to the country of origin of imports. The implementation of AFTA-CEPT brought against Trade diversion and creation of synthetic rubber and factice oil from Indonesia will have impacts on the existence of trade creation because part of the domestic production of synthetic rubber Ana factice oil from Indonesia will be replaced with imports from member countries and there is on trade diversion.
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Wan, Yang, Changyou Sun, and Donald L. Grebner. "Analysis of Import Demand for Wooden Beds in the U.S." Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 42, no. 4 (November 2010): 643–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1074070800003862.
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The market of wooden beds in the U.S. has been flooded with imports from China and Vietnam in recent years. Static and dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System models are used to assess the import demand for wooden beds from the top seven supplying countries. The analyses reveal that the antidumping investigation on China has some temporary trade depression effect on China, but trade diversion occurs to Vietnam, Indonesia, Canada, and Brazil. The formal implementation of antidumping duties since 2005 has not shown any significant effect on the trade pattern. U.S. consumers spend more on beds from newly industrialized countries and there are moderate degrees of substitution among wooden beds from most countries.
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Goulard, Sebastien. "The Impact of the US–China Trade War on the European Union." Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 12, no. 1 (January 2020): 56–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0974910119896642.
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Since April 2018, the USA and China have been engaged in a trade war. Because of the importance of these two countries in world trade, this dispute does affect not only the Chinese and American economies but also the entire world. Several studies have shown the impact of this dispute on different countries in Asia, but little was done to study the effect on European Union (EU) member states. The trade war between the USA and China should not let us forget the trade disputes between Washington and Brussels on one hand and EU–China trade differences on the other hand. This article will take stock of European policy towards the USA and China in this trade war; we will study the consequences of the US–China trade war on the exchanges between Europe and China and analyze the possible diversion created by this trade war for the European market.
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Mukherjee, Deeparghya. "Services traded for intermediate and final usage." Journal of Economic Studies 45, no. 3 (August 13, 2018): 459–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-11-2016-0237.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate and assess the trends of bilateral services trade in the world segmented by trade for final consumption and intermediate usage across several service sectors. The differential trends, if any, are studied while examining the role of free trade agreements which have a chapter on services trade as well as the role of services trade restrictions. The study unravels differences across service sectors in this respect. Design/methodology/approach The author uses an augmented gravity model to address the above using OECD- World Trade Organization (WTO) TiVA data for bilateral trade in intermediates and final products (October 2015 release) and World Bank Services Trade Restrictions Index (STRI). The poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation technique is used in light of the structure of the data. Trade creating and diverting effects are identified controlling for time and country-time specific effects. The following sectors are specifically looked at: total business sector services, computer and related services, financial intermediation, post and telecommunication, transport and storage, R&D and other business services, hotels and restaurants, construction, and wholesale and retail trade. Findings First, services free trade agreements (FTAs) have had a trade creating impact with no trade diverting impact for services trade in aggregate with stronger effects on services traded for intermediate usage. Second, financial intermediation and post and telecommunication have been left unaffected by services FTAs. While no trade diversion is concluded for any sector, R&D and other business services, transport and storage and wholesale retail trade show maximum trade creation effects in response to FTAs. Third, trade restrictions of mainly OECD countries are responsible for lowering exports for most sectors. Finally, in terms of policy implications, at a general level, the author does not find a significant difference in the author’s results for services traded for intermediate usage or final consumption except for a stronger effect of FTAs on intermediate services trade. Hence, the policies to foster services trade on both counts are concluded to be the same and deal with behind-the-border policies of domestic industrial policy reforms like national treatment of foreign firms, licensing requirements, FDI policies, etc. Research limitations/implications Statistics for services trade are limited. The data are only available for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011. Additionally, the conclusions on services trade restrictions are based on statistics for 2011 alone, since this is the only year for which the statistics are available. A complete time series for the entire sample period would increase robustness of the study with a better time variant version of the trade restrictiveness variable. Finally, in the construction of the OECD-WTO-TiVA database of a world IO table, there may have been approximations in constructing statistics for services traded for intermediate usage and final consumption. The results remain sensitive to the same but this is the best possible statistics available for the purposes. Originality/value This is the first study which looks at services trade segmented by trade for final consumption and intermediate usage taking advantage of the available data for a number of service sectors. The role of restrictions is also studied for the first time segmented by trade in intermediates and final consumption. The stronger effects of FTAs on intermediate services trade as well as financial intermediation and post and telecommunication services being insulated from effects of FTAs are important findings, especially since services are mainly thought to be traded for final consumption. Similar trends of results for services traded for intermediate usage and final consumption and restrictions affecting exports from exporter countries and imports by importer countries highlight the importance of behind-the-border domestic policies in facilitating or inhibiting services trade on both counts and more importantly for intermediate usage which, in turn, would improve goods tradability.
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Sakanko, Musa Abdullahi, and David Joseph. "Trade Openness And Inflation: Empirical Explanation Of The Nexus In Nigeria." International Journal of social Sciences and Economic Review 1, no. 2 (October 19, 2019): 35–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.36923/ijsser.v1i2.33.
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Purpose of the study: The study aims is to examine the effect of trade openness on inflation rate in Nigeria.
Methodology: Time series data were collected from secondary sources. EViews10 (statistical software for data analysis) ware employed to analyze the data collected.
Findings: The results revealed a cointegrating and one-way Granger causality between inflation rate, and trade openness. In addition, both the short-run and the long-run results demonstrate a significant and negative relationship between inflation rate and trade openness in Nigeria.
Application: The study is paramount to the government and policymakers in dealing and taking a decision regarding consumer price index and trade openness in Nigeria. We conclude that the government should work towards full diversification and diversion of the economy from oil export, control, and management of the degree of trade liberalization and the extent to which goods enter the country, and the control of money supplied.
Novelty/Originality: The study accorded to debate on the inflation rate, and trade openness in Nigeria looking, at both short-run and long-run effects, before few accessible studies focused on impact, and trade openness was not measured as the value of net export divided by gross domestic product. Finally, the paper contributed to the scanty of the literature.
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Wan, Yang, Changyou Sun, and Donald L. Grebner. "Intervention analysis of the antidumping investigation on wooden bedroom furniture imports from China." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40, no. 7 (July 2010): 1434–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/x10-078.
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In recent years, the annual imports of wooden bedroom furniture by the United States have been over five billion dollars, with more than two billion dollars of that coming from China. This trend led to an antidumping action against China in October 2003. Since January 2005, antidumping duties of 0.83% to 198.08% have been imposed on individual Chinese firms. To assess the impact of this antidumping action, intervention analysis was employed to examine the import values of four furniture commodities and the prices of two of them over 1997–2008. China and six other major competing countries were included in the analysis. With regard to import values from China, significant trade investigation effects were identified: the petition announcement generated a positive impact in March 2004; the preliminary less-than-fair-value (LTFV) determination had a negative impact from July to December 2004. However, the final implementation did not show any expected trade duty effect. The aggregate impact of the antidumping action on import values from China over 2003–2008 was approximately equivalent to a 1-month import reduction. The impact on the unit prices for China was insignificant. For the six competing countries, intervention analyses revealed that the antidumping action generated a positive trade diversion effect, with the magnitude smaller than the trade depression effect on China.
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Alhayat, Aditya Paramita. "EFEKTIVITAS TINDAKAN ANTI DUMPING INDONESIA 1996-2010." Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan 8, no. 2 (December 31, 2014): 247–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v8i2.95.
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Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mempelajari secara empiris dampak tindakan anti-dumping Indonesia terhadap kinerja impor produk terkait pada periode 1996-2010. Dengan menggunakan model regresi Lee, Park, dan Cui yang dikembangkan pada tahun 2013 ,dampak tindakan anti-dumping dapat dibedakan menjadi efek restriksi dan efek pengalihan perdagangan. Hasil empiris menunjukkan bahwa tindakan anti-dumping tidak efektif dalam memberikan efek restriksi perdagangan dari negara yang menjadi target anti-dumping. Bahkan, impor dari negara yang bukan menjadi target anti-dumping meningkat secara definitif pada tahun ditetapkannya anti-dumping. Secara agregat, efek netto restriksi dan pengalihan perdagangan terbukti mampu menekan impor pada periode investigasi anti-dumping, namun pada periode sesudahnya impor kembali meningkat. Penelitian ini merekomendasikan agar pemerintah mempertimbangkan instrumen kebijakan tindakan pengamanan perdagangan lain yang dapat menekan impor dengan lebih efektif dan bersifat jangka panjang. This study aims to investigate the effects of Indonesia’s anti-dumping actions on import performance of related products during 1996-2010. Utilizing the Lee, Park, dan Cui regression model developed in 2013, the effects of anti-dumping actions can be distinguished into two effects, namely trade restriction and trade diversion. The study shows that anti-dumping measures are not effective in providing trade restriction effect to the targeted countries. In fact, imports from non-targeted countries definitively increased in the year when anti-dumping measures was being set up. The net effects of anti-dumping action are proven to reduce imports during the investigation period, but imports continued to rise afterwards. The study recommends the government to consider other trade remedies policy which could give significant and long term trade restriction effect.
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Izotov, Dmitriy. "Trade Integration in the Asia-Pacific Region: Decomposition of Effects." Spatial Economics 17, no. 1 (2021): 66–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/se.2021.1.066-096.
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The article uses international statistics to make a comparative assessment of the effects of integration within the Asia-Pacific region, the Western and Eastern macro-zones of the Asia-Pacific region, in terms of the contribution of the processes of globalization and regionalization in 1994–2018 due to trade agreements and their expansion. The resulting assessment of the effects of integration indicated a greater contribution of the globalization process to the growth of trade in the Asia-Pacific region (APR), especially for the countries of the Eastern macro-zone. It was found that in the Eastern macro-zone, the impact of trade agreements hindered the positive effects of integration. The author discovers fundamental differences between the effects occurring from expanding trade agreements. The process of globalization prevailed over regionalization only in the exporting countries of the Eastern macro-zone; the effects from regionalization were stronger for the importing countries compared to the exporters, which indicates the manifestation of the effect of trade diversion in the Eastern macro-zone. Obtained estimates indicate that from 1994 to 2018, the globalization process acted as a necessary condition for the expansion of trade in both the APR as a whole and in its Western macro-zone, while the process of regionalization played an important supporting role. In the Eastern macro-zone the positive effects of globalization compensated for the ambiguous effects of the regionalization, which, possibly, was the reason for the unsuccessful attempts to create trade mega-formats within this macro-zone. At the same time, the Eastern macro-zone countries that were expanding trade agreements (based at the economic framework) have achieved noticeable increase in trade interactions, especially exports. This is why it is assumed that the quality of the trade agreements, which affects the impact from their realization, is crucial as the assessment of the effects from proliferation of trade agreements demonstrate implicit discrimination of the countries that implement moderate policy of reducing trade barriers through trade agreements. Given the small size of domestic markets, the APR countries implementing such policy can only rely on the effects from globalization, which tend to diminish over time
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Salam, Aziza Rahmaniar, and Bambang Sumarjono. "KAJIAN HARMONISASI TARIF BEA MASUK DALAM KAITANNYA DENGAN PENGEMBANGAN INDUSTRI ORIENTASI EKSPOR." Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan 1, no. 1 (January 23, 2018): 68–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v1i1.294.
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Dalam rangka untuk mendorong pengembangan industry dalam negeri , pemerintah telah menerbitkan berbagai kebijakan antara lain kebijakan tariff bea masuk. Kebijakan tariff bea masuk ini mengacu pada komitmen internasional (WTO, APEC, AFTA, ASEAN-CHINA) maupun nasional . Pada saat ini Indonesia menerapkan program Harmonisasi Tarif Bea Masuk yang dimulai sejak 1 Januari 2005. Program ini diharapkan dapat mendorong peningkatan daya saing produk dalam negeri, Untuk itu perlu dilakukan kajian harmonisasi tariff bea masuk dalam kaitannya dengan pengembangan industry orientasi ekspor, khususnya industry keramik yang dalam beberapa tahun terakhir mendapat tantangan yang cukup besar dalam meningkatkan daya saingnya.Data yang digunakan dalam kajian ini adalah data primer dan data sekunder. Selanjutnya data-data tersebut diolah dan dianalisis untuk melihat tingkat daya saingnya berdasarkan trend ekspor, ISP, RCA, dan AR. Selain itu juga dilihat dampak harmonisasi tariff bea masuk terhadap kinerja industry, trade creation, trade diversion, penerimaan pemerintah dari tariff, dan welfare.Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa Program Harmonisasi tariff bea masuk ini ternyata cukup efektif untuk mengendalikan impor produk keramik saniter dan tableware yang diindikasikan dengan adanya penurunan volume impor masing-masing sebesar-12,7% dan-20,8%. Namun demikian, harmonisasi tariff bea masuk tahun 2005 berdampak pada trade creation effect sebesar –US$ 8,4 juta, bertambahnya penerimaan negara sebesar US$ 2,7 juta, namun menimbulkan dampak berkurangnya welfare sebesar US$ 1 juta.
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Lee, John E., and Kenneth Baum. "Implications of low-input farming systems for the U.S. position in world agriculture." American Journal of Alternative Agriculture 4, no. 3-4 (December 1989): 144–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0889189300002988.
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AbstractThe adoption of sustainable farming system practices by U.S. producers could affect the international competitive position of many agricultural commodities, including livestock. The adoption of such practices over the next several decades will depend on commodity policy legislation, environmental regulation, commodity price and acreage diversion incentives, and the success of ongoing GATT negotiations and trade liberalization. However, the extent and magnitude of these effects are dependent on the internalization and recognition of social costs of agricultural production by farmers and explicit tradeoffs between environmental degradation and agricultural profitability. Environmental externalities include soil loss, surface and ground water contamination by agricultural residuals, loss of wildlife habitat, and diminished aesthetic amenities. In effect, both public and private concerns about the marginal social environmental costs associated with production, when present, will influence the shape and location of commodity supply curves and the U.S. export capability. In turn, these supply curves, which define the production capacity of the U.S. to meet domestic and export demand, will determine our comparative competitive positions for different commodities in world markets.
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Song, Jian, Yun Yang, Xiaomin Sun, Jin Lin, Ming Wu, Jianfeng Wu, and Jichun Wu. "Basin-scale multi-objective simulation-optimization modeling for conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater in northwest China." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24, no. 5 (May 8, 2020): 2323–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2323-2020.
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Abstract. In the arid inland basins of China, the long-term unregulated agricultural irrigation from surface water diversion and groundwater abstraction has caused the unsustainability of water resources and the degradation of ecosystems. This requires the integrated management of surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) at basin scale to achieve scientific decisions which support sustainable water resource allocation in China. This study developed a novel multi-objective simulation-optimization (S-O) modeling framework. The optimization framework integrated a new epsilon multi-objective memetic algorithm (ε-MOMA) with a MODFLOW-NWT model to implement real-world decision-making for water resource management while pondering the complicated groundwater–lake–river interaction in an arid inland basin. Then the optimization technique was validated through the SW–GW management in Yanqi Basin (YB), a typical arid region with intensive agricultural irrigation in northwest China. The management model, involving the maximization of total water supply rate, groundwater storage, surface runoff inflow to the terminal lake, and the minimization of water delivery cost, was proposed to explore the trade-offs between socioeconomic and environmental factors. It is shown that the trade-off surface can be achieved in the four-dimensional objective space by optimizing spatial groundwater abstraction in the irrigation districts and surface water diversion in the river. The Pareto-optimal solutions avoid the prevalence of decision bias caused by the low-dimensional optimization formulation. Decision-makers are then able to identify their desired water management schemes with preferred objectives and achieve maximal socioeconomic and ecological benefits simultaneously. Moreover, three representative runoff scenarios in relation to climate change were specified to quantify the effect of decreasing river runoff on the water management in YB. Results show that runoff depletion would have a great negative impact on the management objectives. Therefore, the integrated SW and GW management is of critical importance for the fragile ecosystem in YB under changing climatic conditions.
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Peterson, G. L., T. B. Whitaker, R. J. Stefanski, E. V. Podleckis, J. G. Phillips, J. S. Wu, and W. H. Martinez. "A Risk Assessment Model for Importation of United States Milling Wheat Containing Tilletia contraversa." Plant Disease 93, no. 6 (June 2009): 560–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1094/pdis-93-6-0560.
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Dwarf bunt of wheat, caused by the fungus Tilletia contraversa, is a pathogen historically limited in distribution by its very specific climatic requirements for establishment. In an effort to both address the need for adequate protection and eliminate unwarranted trade barriers, a number of countries have examined restrictions on importing milling wheat containing teliospores of T. contraversa. Pest risk analysis (PRA), under the guidelines of the World Trade Organization and Food and Agriculture Organization, has become an internationally accepted process for evaluating such issues. As a component of a dwarf bunt PRA, our objective was to develop a quantitative mathematical model to evaluate and communicate the potential risk of dwarf bunt establishment from the importation of U.S. milling wheat containing teliospores of T. contraversa. A T. contraversa–risk model (TCK-risk model) was developed using new data, historic literature, and industry statistics to estimate teliospore diversion from transport and milling processes, spore contamination levels, grain handling, and end-product usage. A climatic model was developed to identify potential regions where the environment was favorable for disease development. The likelihood of disease establishment and wheat yield loss was determined using the model to conduct Monte Carlo simulations of 100,000 wheat shipping-years. The model is dynamic in that individual components can be easily updated or modified in order to determine the effect of numerous scenarios (e.g., climate changes, shipping tonnage, contamination levels, mitigation strategies) on the probability of dwarf bunt establishment. TCK-risk model evaluation scenarios previously conducted for the People's Republic of China, Brazil, Mexico, and Peru are presented as examples.
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Colin Koh-King Wong, Venus Khim-Sen Liew, and Mohammad Affendy Arip. "The Impact Of ASEAN Free Trade Area On Intra-Asean Manufacturing Trade." International Journal of Business and Society 18, no. 3 (December 31, 2017): 633–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.33736/ijbs.3155.2017.
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This study investigates the effects of ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) agreement on the bilateral manufacturing trade between the 10 member countries of ASEAN and 39 of their trading partners. The period ofstudy covers 1995 to 2014. Results obtained from panel data analysis of the gravity model with random effectsshow that the economic sizes, populations, relative endowments, common language and geographical factors like distance, island, landlocked and neighbour are significant determinants of the bilateral manufacturing trade for ASEAN member countries. Moreover, results obtained from the fixed effects model in this study suggests that AFTA has generatedpure trade creation effects in terms of exports. Ontop of that, AFTA has resulted in larger magnitude of trade creation effects in imports than import diversion effects. Overall, AFTA promotes trades among ASEAN member countries through the elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers, for bringing aboutpure trade creation effects in terms of exports as well as imports and also trade diversion effects in terms of imports. In sum, this study with more recent data set covering more ASEAN trading partners shows empirical evidence to justify the success of AFTA arrangement.
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Koo, Won W., P. Lynn Kennedy, and Anatoliy Skripnitchenko. "Regional Preferential Trade Agreements: Trade Creation and Diversion Effects*." Review of Agricultural Economics 28, no. 3 (September 2006): 408–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9353.2006.00306.x.
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Dai, Mian, Yoto V. Yotov, and Thomas Zylkin. "On the trade-diversion effects of free trade agreements." Economics Letters 122, no. 2 (February 2014): 321–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2013.12.024.
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Backus, Margot Gayle, and Spurgeon Thompson. "‘If you shoulder a rifle […] let it be for Ireland’: James Connolly's War on War." Modernist Cultures 13, no. 3 (August 2018): 364–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.3366/mod.2018.0217.
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As virtually all Europe's major socialist parties re-aligned with their own national governments with the outbreak of World War I, Irish socialist and trade unionist James Connolly found himself internationally isolated by his vociferous opposition to the war. Within Ireland, however, Connolly's energetic and relentless calls to interrupt the imperial transportation and communications networks on which the ‘carnival of murder’ in Europe relied had the converse effect, drawing him into alignment with certain strains of Irish nationalism. Connolly and other socialist republican stalwarts like Helena Molony and Michael Mallin made common cause with advanced Irish nationalism, the one other constituency unamenable to fighting for England under any circumstances. This centripetal gathering together of two minority constituencies – both intrinsically opposed, if not to the war itself, certainly to Irish Party leader John Redmond's offering up of the Irish Volunteers as British cannon fodder – accounts for the “remarkably diverse” social and ideological character of the small executive body responsible for the planning of the Easter Rising: the Irish Republican Brotherhood's military council. In effect, the ideological composition of the body that planned the Easter Rising was shaped by the war's systematic diversion of all individuals and ideologies that could be co-opted by British imperialism through any possible argument or material inducement. Although the majority of those who participated in the Rising did not share Connolly's anti-war, pro-socialist agenda, the Easter 1916 Uprising can nonetheless be understood as, among other things, a near letter-perfect instantiation of Connolly's most steadfast principle: that it was the responsibility of every European socialist to throw onto the gears of the imperialist war machine every wrench on which they could lay their hands.
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Khurana, Richa, and D. K. Nauriyal. "ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement: Evaluating Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects." Journal of East-West Business 23, no. 3 (June 15, 2017): 283–307. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10669868.2017.1322548.
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Sumaila, U. R., D. Zeller, L. Hood, M. L. D. Palomares, Y. Li, and D. Pauly. "Illicit trade in marine fish catch and its effects on ecosystems and people worldwide." Science Advances 6, no. 9 (February 2020): eaaz3801. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz3801.
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Illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing is widespread; it is therefore likely that illicit trade in marine fish catch is also common worldwide. We combine ecological-economic databases to estimate the magnitude of illicit trade in marine fish catch and its impacts on people. Globally, between 8 and 14 million metric tons of unreported catches are potentially traded illicitly yearly, suggesting gross revenues of US$9 to US$17 billion associated with these catches. Estimated loss in annual economic impact due to the diversion of fish from the legitimate trade system is US$26 to US$50 billion, while losses to countries’ tax revenues are between US$2 and US$4 billion. Country-by-country estimates of these losses are provided in the Supplementary Materials. We find substantial likely economic effects of illicit trade in marine fish catch, suggesting that bold policies and actions by both public and private actors are needed to curb this illicit trade.
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Karemera, David, Viceola D. Sykes, and Lucy J. Reuben. "Trade Creation, Trade Diversion effects of NAFTA on vegetable and fruit trade flows." World Review of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development 3, no. 2 (2007): 142. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/wremsd.2007.013608.
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Deme, Mamit, and Estrella R. Ndrianasy. "Trade-creation and trade-diversion effects of regional trade arrangements: low-income countries." Applied Economics 49, no. 22 (October 31, 2016): 2188–202. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1234700.
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Carter, Colin A., and Caroline Gunning-Trant. "U.S. trade remedy law and agriculture: trade diversion and investigation effects." Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique 43, no. 1 (January 19, 2010): 97–126. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5982.2009.01565.x.
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Plusnin, Roman. "Effects of trade creation and trade diversion in the Finland’s import." Contemporary Europe 18, no. 4 (July 1, 2018): 136–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.15211/soveurope42018136145.
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Grossman, Gene M., and Giovanni Maggi. "Diversity and Trade." American Economic Review 90, no. 5 (December 1, 2000): 1255–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.90.5.1255.
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We develop a competitive model of trade between countries with similar aggregate factor endowments. The trade pattern reflects differences in the distribution of talent across the labor forces of the two countries. The country with a relatively homogeneous population exports the good produced by a technology with complementarities between tasks. The country with a more diverse workforce exports the good for which individual success is more important. Imperfect observability of talent strengthens the forces of comparative advantage. Finally, we examine the effects of trade on income distribution and the composition of firms in each industry. (JEL F11, D51)
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Lambert, David, and Shahera McKoy. "Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Preferential Trade Associations on Agricultural and Food Trade." Journal of Agricultural Economics 60, no. 1 (February 2009): 17–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-9552.2008.00184.x.
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KAREMERA, DAVID, and WON W. KOO. "TRADE CREATION AND DIVERSION EFFECTS OF THE U.S.-CANADIAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT." Contemporary Economic Policy 12, no. 1 (January 1994): 12–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7287.1994.tb00408.x.
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de Boyrie, Maria E., and Mordechai Kreinin. "Regional Integration in Latin America." Global Economy Journal 16, no. 2 (May 11, 2016): 293–311. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/gej-2015-0066.
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This paper assesses the welfare effects of integration in Latin America. It estimates trade creation and diversion of: 1) integration of the four Mercosur countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay) and 2) amalgamation of Mercosur with the Andean group (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru). The method used to proxy trade creation is the change in total imports of a country from before to after integration, while trade diversion is proxied by the change in the country’s external imports between the two periods. A “control country” approach is used to hold constant the effects on imports of factors other than integration, such as income and price changes. With some exceptions Latin American integration was found beneficial to welfare in that trade creation exceeded trade diversion.
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Alkhateeb, Tarek Tawfik Yousef, and Haider Mahmood. "Energy Consumption and Trade Openness Nexus in Egypt: Asymmetry Analysis." Energies 12, no. 10 (May 27, 2019): 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12102018.
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Trade openness may support the economic growth of any country but its environmental effects due to increasing energy consumption cannot be ignored. This research hypothesizes the asymmetrical effects of both economic growth and trade openness on the energy consumption of Egypt from 1971–2014. Our estimates suggest that both economic growth and trade openness have asymmetrical effects on the energy consumption in both long and short runs because magnitude of the effects are found unequal. Both increasing and decreasing economic growth have positive effects on the energy consumption in the long and short runs except an insignificant effect of decreasing economic growth in the short run. Increasing and decreasing trade openness have also positive effects on the energy consumption in the long and short runs except an insignificant effect of decreasing trade openness in the long run. The increasing energy consumption, as results of increasing economic growth and/or trade openness, may have environmental consequence. Therefore, we recommend the Egyptian government to diversify the energy consumption from fossil fuel sources.
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Urata, Shujiro, and Misa Okabe. "Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Regional Trade Agreements: A Product-level Analysis." World Economy 37, no. 2 (July 15, 2013): 267–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/twec.12099.
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Handoyo, Rossanto Dwi, Lilik Sugiharti, and Miguel Angel Esquivias Padilla. "TRADE CREATION AND TRADE DIVERSION EFFECTS: THE CASE OF THE ASEAN PLUS SIX FREE TRADE AREA." Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 24, no. 1 (April 14, 2021): 93–118. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v24i1.1163.
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This study examines whether trade agreements promoted under the ASEAN+6 over the period 2007-2017 supported trade creation and/or trade diversion effects within three export product groups, namely, manufactured goods, primary products, and natural resources-based goods. Using a gravity model, we note that primary products offer pure trade creation (greater intra-bloc and extra-bloc trade). Manufactured products experienced trade creation in intra-bloc and extrabloc exports, while natural resources-based goods show trade creation in intraregional exports and trade creation in imports from extra-bloc.
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KUO, KUO-HSING, and CHENG-TE LEE. "TECHNOLOGY ADVANTAGE, HETEROGENEOUS TALENT AND TRADE." Singapore Economic Review 63, no. 05 (December 2018): 1307–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217590816500119.
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This paper will setup a trade model to explore the impact of the diversity of talent distribution and the technology difference on the pattern of trade (POT) and income inequality of an economy. We find that not only the diversity effect but also the technology effect can matter for the pattern of POT. We demonstrate that, in the free-trade equilibrium, if the technology effect dominates the diversity effect then the country with a more (less) diverse distribution of talent may export the goods produced by a technology with supermodularity (submodularity). In addition, we prove that the relative technology difference will affect income inequality. If the technological advance for the submodular sector S is better than for the supermodular sector C, then income inequality would increase.