Academic literature on the topic 'Tracking experts'

In visual object tracking, by reasonably fusing multiple experts, ensemble framework typically achieves superior performance compared to the individual experts. However, the necessity of parallelly running all the experts in most existing ensemble frameworks heavily limits their efficiency. In this paper, we propose POST, a POlicy-based Switch Tracker for robust and efficient visual tracking. The proposed POST tracker consists of multiple weak but complementary experts (trackers) and adaptively assigns one suitable expert for tracking in each frame. By formulating this expert switch in consecutive frames as a decision-making problem, we learn an agent via reinforcement learning to directly decide which expert to handle the current frame without running others. In this way, the proposed POST tracker maintains the performance merit of multiple diverse models while favorably ensuring the tracking efficiency. Extensive ablation studies and experimental comparisons against state-of-the-art trackers on 5 prevalent benchmarks verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Objective: We sought to investigate whether expert–novice differences in visual search behavior found in other domains also apply to accident scenes and the emergency response domain. Background: Emergency service professionals typically arrive at accidents only after being dispatched when a civilian witness has called an emergency dispatch number. Differences in visual search behavior between the civilian witness (usually a novice in terms of emergency response) and the professional first responders (experts at emergency response) could thus result in the experts being given insufficient or erroneous information, which would lead them to arrive unprepared for the actual situation. Method: A between-subjects, controlled eye-tracking experiment with 20 novices and 17 experts (rescue and ambulance service personnel) was conducted to explore expert–novice differences in visual search of accident and control images. Results: The results showed that the experts spent more time looking at task-relevant areas of the accident images than novices did, as predicted by the information reduction hypothesis. The longer time was due to longer fixation durations rather than a larger fixation count. Conclusion: Expert–novice differences in visual search are present in the emergency domain. Given that this domain is essential to saving lives and also relies heavily on novices as the first link in the chain of response, such differences deserve further exploration. Application: Visual search behavior from experts can be used for training purposes. Eye-tracking studies of novices can be used to inform the design of emergency dispatch interviews.

Background: Up-to-date guidance on comprehensive study identification for systematic reviews is crucial. According to current recommendations, systematic searching should combine electronic database searching with supplementary search methods. One such supplementary search method is citation tracking. It aims at collecting directly and/or indirectly cited and citing references from "seed references”. Tailored and evidence-guided recommendations concerning the use of citation tracking are strongly needed. Objective: We intend to develop recommendations for the use of citation tracking in health-related systematic literature searching. Our study will be guided by the following research questions: What are the benefits of citation tracking for health-related systematic literature searching? Which perspectives and experiences do experts in the field of literature retrieval methods have with regard to citation tracking in health-related systematic literature searching? Methods: Our study will have two parts: a scoping review and an expert survey. The scoping review aims at identifying methodological studies on benefits or problems of citation tracking in health-related systematic literature searching with no restrictions on study design, language, and publication date. We will perform database searching in MEDLINE, The Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Web of Science Core Collection, two information science databases, and free web searching. Two reviewers will independently assess full texts of selected abstracts. We will conduct direct backward and forward citation tracking on included articles. The results of the scoping review will inform our expert survey through which we aim to learn about experts΄ perspectives and experiences. We will narratively synthesize the results and derive recommendations for performing health-related systematic reviews.

We used mouse tracking to compare the performance of bilinguals and monolinguals in a Stroop task. Participants were instructed to respond to the color of the words (e.g., blue in yellow font) by clicking on response options on the screen. We recorded participants’ movements of a computer mouse: when participants started moving (initiation times), and how fast they moved towards the correct response (x-coordinates over time). Interestingly, initiation times were longer for bilinguals than monolinguals. Nevertheless, when comparing mouse trajectories, bilinguals moved faster towards the correct response. Taken together, these results indicate that bilinguals behave qualitatively differently from monolinguals; bilinguals are “experts” at managing conflicting information. Experts across many different domains take longer to initiate a response, but then they outperform novices. These qualitative differences in performance could be at the root of apparently contradictory findings in the bilingual literature.

Introduction: Resuscitation is a dynamic, complex and time-sensitive field which encompasses management of both critically-ill patients as well as large multidisciplinary teams. Expertise in this area has not been adequately defined, and to date, no research has directly examined the decision-making and cognitive processes involved. The evolving paradigm of competency-based medical education (CBME) makes better defining expertise in this field of critical importance to aid in the development of both educational and assessment methods. The technique of cognitive task analysis (CTA) has been used in a variety of fields to explicate the cognitive underpinnings of experts. Experts, however, often have limited insight and incomplete recall of their decision-making processes. We hypothesized that the use of eye-tracking, which provides the combination of first-person video as well as an overlying gaze indicator, could be used to enhance CTA to better understand the defining characteristics of experts in resuscitation. Methods: Over an 18-month period a sample of 11 traumatic resuscitations were obtained, each led by one of four pre-selected expert physicians outfitted with the Tobii Pro Eye-Tracking Glasses. After each resuscitation, the participant was debriefed using a cued-recall, think-aloud protocol while watching his or her corresponding eye-tracking video. A subsequent qualitative analysis of the resulting video and debrief transcript was performed using an ethnographic approach to establish emerging themes and behaviours of the expert physicians. Results: The expert participants demonstrated specific, common patterns in their cognitive processes. In particular, participants exhibited similar anticipatory and visual behaviours, dynamic communication strategies and the ability to distinguish between task-relevant and task-redundant information. All participants reported that this technique uncovered otherwise subconscious aspects of their cognition. Conclusion: The novel combination of eye-tracking technology to supplement the CTA of expert resuscitationists enriched our understanding of expertise in this field and yielded specific findings that can be applied to better develop and assess resuscitation skills.

In-Audible Experts? Managing the Perception of Expert’s Statements in the Era of Multimodal Media, on the Example of Selected Material From an Information Service ‒ Pilot Study The article discusses the perception studies of experts commenting political events on television. The aim of the study was to determine to what extent the expert hypothesis works in the era of multimodal communication and information noise. In addition, an attempt was made to identify elements of viewers’ attention management, such as: attractors and visual distractors, and to determine the importance of emblems of expertise in qualifying people who speak to this group. Two research techniques were used in the study: eye tracking and surveys, which allowed for comprehensive analysis of multimodal message. Research shows that in the case of such messages, viewers usually use the face-caption-face scheme, with the face being the attractor for both groups – a single person and a crowd. The elements of the background turned out to be distractors, which can be of great importance in the perception of expert statements, since in the media we recently tend to place the expert outside, in a dynamic surrounding. At the same time, the analysis showed that expert emblems, e.g. title or clothing, are an indicator of the speaker’s belonging to this group. Despite of this, expert statements were considered by the respondents to be aggressive, non-substantive and not adding anything to their knowledge of politics, which supports the recognition of Tom Nichols’s thesis about the death of experts and their expertise, and at the same time about the inadequacy of the hypothesis referring to experts in the age of multimodal media.

Research Experiences for Undergraduate (REU) programs often introduce students to scientific research and STEM career possibilities. However, the program impact on students and their research skill development is not well understood. In a case study with 10 REU students, the authors used eye-tracking and self-report data to determine student strategies for reading scientific papers and interpreting graphs at the beginning and end of the program. The strategies of REU students and science experts were then compared. The REU students changed their strategies and performed more like experts at posttest. These findings indicate that, during the REU, students acquired expert-like strategies necessary to engage with scientific articles and extract key information from graphs. The study demonstrates that eye-tracking can document skill growth in REU students.

This study examines how geoscience experts and novices make meaning from an iconic type of data visualization: shaded relief images of bathymetry and topography. Participants examined, described, and interpreted a global image, two high-resolution seafloor images, and 2 high-resolution continental images, while having their gaze direction eye-tracked and their utterances and gestures videoed. In addition, experts were asked about how they would coach an undergraduate intern on how to interpret this data. Not unexpectedly, all experts were more skillful than any of the novices at describing and explaining what they were seeing. However, the novices showed a wide range of performance. Along the continuum from weakest novice to strongest expert, proficiency developed in the following order: making qualitative observations of salient features, making simple interpretations, making quantitative observations. The eye-tracking analysis examined how the experts and novices invested 20 seconds of unguided exploration, after the image came into view but before the researcher began to ask questions. On the cartographic elements of the images, experts and novices allocated their exploration time differently: experts invested proportionately more fixations on the latitude and longitude axes, while students paid more attention to the color bar. In contrast, within the parts of the image showing the actual geomorphological data, experts and novices on average allocated their attention similarly, attending preferentially to the geologically significant landforms. Combining their spoken responses with their eye-tracking behavior, we conclude that the experts and novices are looking in the same places but “seeing” different things.

In this study, Concept map (CM) development processes of the experts and novices were explored. This studyaimed to investigate the similarities and differences among novices and experts&rsquo
CM development process regarding their cognitive processes. Two experiments were designed
eye-tracking, written and verbal data were collected from 29 pre-service teachers and 6 subject matter experts.Data were analyzed by using qualitative and quantitative data analysis methods. The results indicated that eventhough some of the strategies were similar, there were different patterns followed by the experts and novices during the CM development process. Both experts and novices embraced &lsquo
deductive reasoning&rsquo
, and preferred &lsquo
hierarchical&rsquo
type of CMs. The other patterns recognized during the process were&lsquo
filling information in an order&rsquo
, &lsquo
branch construction pattern&rsquo
,&lsquo
content richness&rsquo
and &lsquo
progress pattern&rsquo
. Novices and experts were distinguished in their content richness measures which used to determine the quality of the maps. Regarding the progress pattern, novices and experts differed in terms of the frequency and duration for specific acts invarious phases of their progress in CM development process. Furthermore, expert participants differed from novices in their fixation count numbers, fixation durations, visit duration periods for specific actions. Fixation count numbers of the novices were higher than the experts during the entire process and in specific dimensions of the CM development process. As a conclusion, these pattern differences affect the CM development process directly and the instructors need to give emphasis to these critical points while using CM during the instruction, and with the help of these pattern differences, instructors could guide the learner effectively and acquire content rich CMs.

Doctor of Philosophy
Department of Mathematics
Andrew G. Bennett
This dissertation investigates and compares the methods of proof validation utilized by novice and expert mathematicians within the realm of Euclidean geometry. With the use of eye tracking technology, our study presents empirical evidence supporting claims previously studied only through the use of verbal protocols. Our investigation settles a series of contentious results surrounding the practical implementation of the generalized validation strategy called zooming out (Inglis and Alcock, 2012; Weber, Mejia-Ramos, Inglis, and Alcock, 2013). This strategy analyzes the overall structure of a proof as an application of methods or logical chunks. Settling the debate through use of longer and more complicated proofs devoid of blatant errors, we found that validators do not initially skim-read proofs to gain structural insight. We did however confirm the practical implementation of zooming out strategies. The literature identifies within the proof validation process specific differences between novices and experts. We are interested in a holistic understanding of novice and expert validations. We therefore present the direct comparison of entire validation processes that assess the similarity of novice and expert overall validation attempts. We found that the validation processes of novices and experts share a certain degree of similarity. In fact novices tend to be closer to experts than to other novices. And when validations are clustered, the groups are heterogeneous with regard to mathematical maturity. Our investigation expands the proof validation literature by including diagrams in the proof validation process. We found that experts tend to spend more time proportionally on the diagram than novices and that novices spend more time on the text. Furthermore, experts tend to draw more connections within the diagram than novices as indicated by a higher proportion of attentional changes within the diagrams. Experts seem to draw on the power of visualizations within the mathematics itself, spending more time on conceptual understanding and intended connections.

Large open-source software projects involve developers with a wide variety of backgrounds and expertise. Such software projects furthermore include many internal APIs that developers must understand and use properly. According to the intended purpose of these APIs, they are more or less frequently used, and used by developers with more or less expertise. In this paper, we study the impact of usage patterns and developer expertise on the rate of defects occurring in the use of internal APIs. For this preliminary study, we focus on memory management APIs in the Linux kernel, as the use of these has been shown to be highly error prone in previous work. We study defect rates and developer expertise, to consider e.g., whether widely used APIs are more defect prone because they are used by less experienced developers, or whether defects in widely used APIs are more likely to be fixed.

Online learning algorithms have several key advantages compared to their batch learning algorithm counterparts: they are generally more memory efficient, and computationally mor efficient; they are simpler to implement; and they are able to adapt to changes where the learning model is time varying. Online algorithms because of their simplicity are very appealing to practitioners. his thesis investigates several online learning algorithms and their application. The thesis has an underlying theme of the idea of combining several simple algorithms to give better performance. In this thesis we investigate: combining weights, combining hypothesis, and (sort of) hierarchical combining.¶ Firstly, we propose a new online variant of the Bayes point machine (BPM), called the online Bayes point machine (OBPM). We study the theoretical and empirical performance of the OBPm algorithm. We show that the empirical performance of the OBPM algorithm is comparable with other large margin classifier methods such as the approximately large margin algorithm (ALMA) and methods which maximise the margin explicitly, like the support vector machine (SVM). The OBPM algorithm when used with a parallel architecture offers potential computational savings compared to ALMA. We compare the test error performance of the OBPM algorithm with other online algorithms: the Perceptron, the voted-Perceptron, and Bagging. We demonstrate that the combinationof the voted-Perceptron algorithm and the OBPM algorithm, called voted-OBPM algorithm has better test error performance than the voted-Perceptron and Bagging algorithms. We investigate the use of various online voting methods against the problem of ranking, and the problem of collaborative filtering of instances. We look at the application of online Bagging and OBPM algorithms to the telecommunications problem of channel equalization. We show that both online methods were successful at reducing the effect on the test error of label flipping and additive noise.¶ Secondly, we introduce a new mixture of experts algorithm, the fixed-share hierarchy (FSH) algorithm. The FSH algorithm is able to track the mixture of experts when the switching rate between the best experts may not be constant. We study the theoretical aspects of the FSH and the practical application of it to adaptive equalization. Using simulations we show that the FSH algorithm is able to track the best expert, or mixture of experts, in both the case where the switching rate is constant and the case where the switching rate is time varying.

In the digitally mediated world that we live in, self-tracking and monitoring technologies have been observed to become part of the various realms of our social lives, shaping and even disturbing relations that we take part in. This thesis has sought to explore how tensions emerge between digital tracking technologies, players and other human members of an elite football team and, thus, to address how those tensions are dealt with. By applying the ethnographic research methodology and adopting the theoretical framework of Actor-Network Theory (ANT), the study has pursued to investigate how the technologies participate in the players’ everyday practices as well as how the players navigate between the expertise of different human and non-human sources in the team. The results indicate that the involvement of tracking technologies can increase the possibility of tensions to arise between different participants in a network such as the studied football team. To deal with these tensions, this thesis has contributed with a prototype of a system around a player monitoring technology. It suggests roles, relations, factors and actions in order to enhance the understanding among those who manage such a technology, helping them to acknowledge and overcome possible tensions in the social process of tracking a football team. This service blueprint is constructed through co-design workshops together with the player participants.

Thesis advisor: Natalia Sarkisian
The recent proliferation of technologies to collect and analyze “Big Data” has changed the research landscape, making it easier for some to use unprecedented amounts of real-time data to guide decisions and build ‘knowledge.’ In the three articles of this dissertation, I examine what these changes reveal about the nature of expertise and the position of the researcher. In the first article, “Monopoly or Generosity? ‘Rock Stars’ of Big Data, Data Democrats, and the Role of Technologies in Systems of Expertise,” I challenge the claims of recent scholarship, which frames the monopoly of experts and the spread of systems of expertise as opposing forces. I analyze video recordings (N= 30) of the proceedings of two professional conferences about Big Data Analytics (BDA), and I identify distinct orientations towards BDA practice among presenters: (1) those who argue that BDA should be conducted by highly specialized “Rock Star” data experts, and (2) those who argue that access to BDA should be “democratized” to non-experts through the use of automated technology. While the “data democrats” ague that automating technology enhances the spread of the system of BDA expertise, they ignore the ways that it also enhances, and hides, the monopoly of the experts who designed the technology. In addition to its implications for practitioners of BDA, this work contributes to the sociology of expertise by demonstrating the importance of focusing on both monopoly and generosity in order to study power in systems of expertise, particularly those relying extensively on technology. Scholars have discussed several ways that the position of the researcher affects the production of knowledge. In “Distance Makes the Scholar Grow Fonder? The Relationship Between Analytical Distance and Critical Reflection on Methods in Big Data Analytics,” I pinpoint two types of researcher “distance” that have already been explored in the literature (experiential and interactional), and I identify a third type of distance—analytical distance—that has not been examined so far. Based on an empirical analysis of 113 articles that utilize Twitter data, I find that the analytical distance that authors maintain from the coding process is related to whether the authors include explicit critical reflections about their research in the article. Namely, articles in which the authors automate the coding process are significantly less likely to reflect on the reliability or validity of the study, even after controlling for factors such as article length and author’s discipline. These findings have implications for numerous research settings, from studies conducted by a team of scholars who delegate analytic tasks, to “big data” or “e-science” research that automates parts of the analytic process. Individuals who engage in self-tracking—collecting data about themselves or aspects of their lives for their own purposes—occupy a unique position as both researcher and subject. In the sociology of knowledge, previous research suggests that low experiential distance between researcher and subject can lead to more nuanced interpretations but also blind the researcher to his or her underlying assumptions. However, these prior studies of distance fail to explore what happens when the boundary between researcher and subject collapses in “N of one” studies. In “The Collapse of Experiential Distance and the Inescapable Ambiguity of Quantifying Selves,” I borrow from art and literary theories of grotesquerie—another instance of the collapse of boundaries—to examine the collapse of boundaries in self-tracking. Based on empirical analyses of video testimonies (N=102) and interviews (N=7) with members of the Quantified Self community of self-trackers, I find that ambiguity and multiplicity are integral facets of these data practices. I discuss the implications of these findings for the sociological study of researcher distance, and also the practical implications for the neoliberal turn that assigns responsibility to individuals to collect, analyze, and make the best use of personal data
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2015
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Sociology

The electrocardiogram (ECG) is a graphical representation of the electrical activity of the heart. The 12-lead ECG shows this activity in 12 "views" called "leads", relative to the location of sensors attached to the body surface. The ECG is a routinely applied cost effective diagnostic medical test, utilised in healthcare settings around the world. Although more than three hundred million ECGs are recorded each year, correctly interpreting them is considered a complex task. Failure to make correct interpretations can lead to injury or death and costs vast sums in litigation payments. Many automated attempts at interpreting ECGs have been implemented and continue to be developed and improved. Despite this, automated methods are still considered to be less reliable than expert human interpretation. As ECG interpretation is both a cognitive and visual task, eye-tracking holds great potential as an investigative methodology. This thesis aims to identify any cues in visual behaviour that may indicate differences in subsequent ECG interpretation accuracy. This is the first work that uses eye-tracking to analyse how practitioners interpret ECGs as a function of accuracy. In order to investigate these phenomenon, several experiments were carried out using eye-movements captured from clinical practitioners that interpret ECGs as part of their usual clinical role. The findings presented in this thesis have advanced research in the understanding of ECG interpretation. Specifically: Clinical history makes a difference to how people look at ECGs; different gaze patterns are often found in accurate and inaccurate interpretation groups. Grouping data to account for within ECG lead behaviour (eye-movement patterns within a lead) is more revealing than analysis at the level of the lead (eye-movements between leads). Findings suggest analysing visual behaviour at this level is crucial in order to detect behaviour in ECG interpretation. Further to this the thesis presents eye-tracking techniques that can be applied to wider areas of task performance. These methods work over complex stimuli, are able to deal post hoc with differently sized groups and generate appropriate areas of interest on a stimulus. These methods detect important differences in eye-movement behaviour between groups that are missed when applying standard inferential statistical techniques.

Situations-spezifische Fertigkeiten sind ein wichtiger Teil von Lehrerexpertise und insbesondere im Bereich des Klassenmanagements bedeutsam. Vor dem Hintergrund der Kompetenz- und Expertiseforschung synthetisiert die vorliegende Dissertation bisherige Befunde systematisch und untersucht, wie sich Novizen- und Expertenlehrpersonen in ihren Fertigkeiten hinsichtlich des Klassenmanagements unterscheiden. Studie 1 fasst den Forschungsstand in einem systematischen Review von 60 empirischen Studien zusammen und arbeitet Erkenntnisse zu Fertigkeiten und ihrer Förderung sowie zum konzeptuellen Rahmen der Studien heraus. Für Studie 2 und Studie 3 werden die Fertigkeiten von 20 Noviz*innen und 20 Expert*innen mit Hilfe von Videoausschnitten untersucht, die für das Klassenmanagement relevante Ereignisse zeigen. Studie 2 erforscht mit Hilfe von Eye-Tracking-Methoden insbesondere die Fertigkeit der Wahrnehmung sowie formatspezifische Expertiseeffekte. Es fand sich bei Expert*innen ein Fokus auf Schüler*innen, während Noviz*innen vor allem beim Partnerarbeitsformat weniger ausgeprägte Fertigkeiten zeigten. Studie 3 untersucht anhand von retrospektiven verbalen Analysen Expertiseeffekte hinsichtlich des Wahrnehmens, Interpretierens und Entscheidens. Expertise war erneut durch einen Fokus auf Schüler*innen gekennzeichnet. Zudem boten Expert*innen mehr Handlungsmöglichkeiten an als Noviz*innen. Zusammenfassend lässt sich feststellen, dass Expert*innen vor allem hinsichtlich des Entscheidens überlegen sind. Weiterhin deuten die Ergebnisse darauf hin, dass offenere Unterrichtsformate für Noviz*innen besonders herausfordernd sind. Die Bedeutung der Ergebnisse wird hinsichtlich der allgemeinen Expertise- und Kompetenzforschung sowie der Klassenmanagementforschung diskutiert. Die Studien zeigen theoretische Inkohärenz hinsichtlich des Konstrukts situations-spezifischer Fertigkeiten auf, sowie eine starke Fokussierung bisheriger Forschung auf Störungen in Frontalunterrichtsszenen.
Situation-specific skills are an important part of teacher expertise and are particularly relevant in the area of classroom management. Against the background of general and classroom management-specific teacher competence and expertise research, this dissertation systematically synthesized previous findings and also investigated how novice and expert teachers differ in their skills with regard to classroom management. Study 1 summarized the state of research in a systematic review of 60 empirical studies, thereby identifying insights into teachers’ skills and their facilitation, as well as the conceptual frameworks of the studies. For Study 2 and Study 3, the skills of 20 novice and 20 expert teachers were examined using video clips that show events relevant to classroom management. Study 2 investigated format-specific expertise effects and, in particular, the skill of perception by using eye tracking methods. Experts were found to focus on students and their learning, while novices showed less pronounced skills, especially in the partner work format. Using teachers’ retrospective verbal analyses of classroom management events, Study 3 examined expertise effects with respect to teachers’ perception, interpretation and decision-making. Again, expertise was characterized by a focus on students. In addition, experts proposed more alternative courses of action than novices. In summary, it can be concluded that experts are superior to novices especially with regard to the skill of decision-making. Furthermore, the results indicate that more open formats of instruction are particularly challenging for novices. The relevance of the results is discussed with regard to general expertise and competence research as well as classroom management research. The studies point to theoretical ambiguities regarding the construct of situation-specific skills, as well as an overemphasis of previous research on behavioral management in whole-group instruction settings.

Neuroimaging has significantly contributed to our understanding of human learning by tracking the neural correlates underlying the acquisition of new expertise. Studies using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) suggest that the acquisition of arithmetic competence is reflected in a decrease of activation in frontal brain regions and a relative increase of activation in parietal brain regions that are important for arithmetic processing. Activation of the angular gyrus (AG) is related to fact learning, skilled retrieval, and level of automatization. fMRI investigations extend the findings of cognitive studies showing that behavioural differences between trained and untrained sets of items, between different arithmetic operations, and between different training strategies are reflected by specific activation patterns. fMRI studies also reveal inter-individual differences related to arithmetic competence, with low performing individuals showing lower AG activation when answering calculation problems. Importantly, training attenuates inter-individual differences in AG activation. Studies with calculation experts suggest that different strategies may be used to achieve extraordinary performance. While some experts recruit a more extended cerebral network compared with the average population, others use the same frontoparietal network, but more efficiently. In conclusion, brain imaging studies on arithmetic learning and expertise offer a promising view on the adaptivity of the human brain. Although evidence on functional or structural modifications following intervention in dyscalculic patients is still scarce, future studies may contribute to the development of more efficient and targeted rehabilitation programmes after brain damage or in cases of atypical numerical development.

Defining relevant outcomes for mental health and related intervention trials requires consultation with a range of experts and stakeholders and the population for whom the services are being provided. The latter is not often consulted systematically, but doing so is necessary to ensure that their priorities are addressed within the study objectives and outcomes, and that instruments measure the outcomes accurately. Doing so will increase the likelihood that the services being tested, if found effective, will be sustained after the trial is completed. Changes in the types of outcomes assessed in these trials are not static. Once the intervention is over these changes may continue to accumulate or decline with time. Wherever possible it is important to measure outcomes over time, at specific intervals after the intervention is completed. Outcomes that measure amount of change will be more appropriate to tracking long-term impacts of interventions.

This collection of chapters on the latest methods and tools for applied research in aviation psychology guides the diverse range of professionals working within aviation on how to adapt flexibly to the continuously evolving requirements of the aeronautical landscape. Experts from the industry and academia explore selected applications, ranging from aviation system engineering to bridging the gap between research and industrialization, safety culture, training and examination. Psychological tools are explored, including designing biocybernetic adaptive systems, predictive automation, and support for designing the human role in future human–machine teaming concepts. Special chapters are dedicated to spatial disorientation, reactivity, stress, eye-tracking, electrodermal and cardiac assessment under the influence of G forces. This is essential reading for aviation psychologists, human factors practitioners, engineers, designers, operational specialists, students and researchers in academia, industry, and government. The practitioners and researchers working in other safety critical domains (e.g., medicine, automotive) will also find the handbook valuable.

AbstractOften underestimated, (semi-)structured textual data sources are an important cornerstone in the manufacturing sector for product and process quality tracking. The ELG pilot project SLAPMAN develops novel methods for industrial text analytics in the form of scalable, reusable, and potentially stateful microservices, which can be easily orchestrated by domain experts in order to define quality anomaly patterns, e. g., by analysing machine states and error logs. The results are fully available as open source and integrated into the IIoT toolbox Apache StreamPipes.

AbstractThis book explains that after long periods of prehistoric research in which the importance of the archaeological as well as the natural context of rock art has been constantly underestimated, research has now begun to take this context into focus for documentation, analysis, interpretation and understanding. Human footprints are prominent among the long-time under-researched features of the context in caves with rock art. In order to compensate for this neglect an innovative research program has been established several years ago that focuses on the merging of indigenous knowledge and western archaeological science for the benefit of both sides. The book composes first the methodological diversity in the analysis of human tracks. Here major representatives of anthropological, statistical and traditional approaches feature the multi-layered methods available for the analysis of human tracks. It second compiles case studies from around the globe of prehistoric human. For the first time the most important sites which have been found worldwide are published in a single publication. The third focus of this book is on first hand experiences of researchers with indigenous tracking experts from around the globe, expounding on how archaeological science can benefit from the ancestral knowledge.

AbstractThe Tuc d’Audoubert cave (Ariège, France) offers unique insights into the life of Late Pleistocene hunters-gatherers due to its exceptionally good preservation conditions. This is especially true for the 300 footprints in the upper gallery of the cave. Even for the layperson, some trackways are easily recognized. Short episodes of past life become tangible. The spectrum of scientific analytic methods used in western science has not yet provided an option to interpret these visible episodes satisfactorily. For this reason, tracking experts, i.e. indigenous ichnologists, were invited to analyse the footprints in Tuc d’Audoubert. With their dynamic approach of identification, they are able to do justice to the dynamics embodied in the footprints. In total, eight main concentrations in four different locations were studied. Two hundred fifty-five footprints were identified and grouped into 24 events. In view of the group compositions and the assumption that humans did not climb alone into the upper gallery for security reasons, it can be concluded that a maximum of five visits by two to six subjects were carried out. Among the events, the couple of an adult man and an adult woman, who appear together in a total of ten different spots, is particularly noteworthy. Altogether, this study is a first step of a multi-stage procedure. Further analyses based on measurements and plantar pressure analyses will follow.

According to Grayson et al. , risk behavior in driving consists of hazard detection, threat appraisal, action selection and implementation. Hazard perception tests often include the task to react quickly to hazards within traffic scenarios. Thus, two components of risk behavior are included in one measure and therefore confounded: hazard detection and threat appraisal. Tracking the eye movements, researchers found evidence for novices having deficits regarding hazard detection . In contrast, Hystegge et al. revealed, that novice drivers were as fast as expert drivers in looking at still hazards but needed more time to evaluate them. The aim of the present eye tracking experiment was to investigate, whether experienced drivers outperform novices with regard to hazard detection or threat appraisal. 22 experienced drivers and 15 learner drivers were presented 32 animated traffic scenarios in a computer based hazard perception test. The depended variables were accuracy and speed of hazard detection (first fixation) and threat appraisal (reaction after detection). Experts outperformed novices clearly in hazard detection: They focused on more hazards and detected them faster than the novices. Moreover, after having detected a hazard, experts react to it more reliable but not faster than the novices.

Healthy and resilient ecosystems underpin our societies and economies. Collapse of just a few ecosystem services such pollination, timber from forests and food from marine fisheries, could result in a global GDP decline of USD 2.7 trillion annually by 2030. We are not investing sufficiently in nature, resulting in an estimated nature funding gap as high as US$800 billion per year. Redirecting financial flows towards nature-positive investments and activities is critical. Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) play an instrumental role to support a nature-positive future, aligned with the forthcoming post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework, the G7 Climate, Energy and Environment Ministers Communiqué of May 27th, 2022, and with the Joint Statement on Nature, People, and Planet endorsed by the 10 MDBs at COP27. This Statement included an intention to work towards a joint understanding of the term 'nature positive' in the context of operations and investments and a goal to develop tools and methodologies for tracking 'nature positive' investments across MDB portfolios. This technical note is a first step towards meeting this commitment. This work presents options for defining nature-positive finance, based on definitions and principles identified in a bibliographical review drawing on global expertise and developing frameworks and taxonomies. Acknowledging the variety of institutional and ecological contexts in which MDBs operate, the report offers a menu of options to screen nature-positive activities as well as a variety of approaches to determine the nature-positive contribution to investments. Finally, the report proposes principles for tracking and reporting on these investments.

The main criterion for the competitiveness of a teacher or expert in the field of science is a good ability to present their knowledge to students in an interactive form without spending a lot of time in preparation. The purpose of the study is to analyze modern editors to create educational information content in the modern educational space and to present a modern tool for creating web books based on the latest IT technologies. Modern editors of web material creation have been analyzed, statistics of situations on mastering of knowledge by listeners, using interactive methods of information submission have been investigated. Using the WYSIWYG concept and analyzing modern information tools for presenting graphic material, an effective tool for teaching interactive web material was presented. An adapted version of the MarkHub online editor based on cloud technologies is presented. Using MarkHub cloud-based online editor for the unified development of educational content can significantly increase the author’s productivity in the content creation process. At the same time, the effects of reducing the time spent on formatting the external presentation of the content, making synchronous changes to different versions of the content, tracking the versions of the content, organizing remote teamwork in the network environment are achieved.

Post-shipment on-site inspections and international assistance in physical security and stockpile management (PSSM) have different scopes and objectives. On-site inspections allow exporting states to check exported military materiel to ensure that the importer is complying with its commitments, while PSSM assistance aims to improve states’ weapons and ammunition management systems. However, both instruments allow foreign specialists to visit a state’s weapons and ammunition storage facilities and enable information gathering to assess their integrity and identify possible diversion risks. This policy brief highlights that building informal linkages between these instruments, especially with regard to states and actors that conduct inspections and are involved in funding or implementing PSSM assistance, could contribute towards establishing more comprehensive forms of post-shipment cooperation. In addition, applying lessons learned from PSSM assistance in terms of gaining access to states’ facilities, cooperating with the beneficiary importing states, and identifying limitations and opportunities associated with the use of tracking technologies could help to address some of the challenges encountered when conducting on-site inspections. PSSM assistance programmes could also include modules to raise awareness about on-site inspections and be a source of expertise that could assist states when implementing these controls.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.