Academic literature on the topic 'Tourist behaviour'

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Journal articles on the topic "Tourist behaviour":

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Novianti, Syifaa, Eko Susanto, and Wahyu Rafdinal. "Predicting Tourists’ Behaviour Towards Smart Tourism: The Case in Emerging Smart Destinations." Journal of Tourism Sustainability 2, no. 1 (April 28, 2022): 19–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.35313/jtospolban.v2i1.30.

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This paper aims to investigate the tourist behaviour towards smart tourism in the case of emerging smart destinations. The extended model of theory of planned behaviour (TPB) is proposed as a tool to predict the relationship between applying smart tourism technology and tourist behaviour in selecting and visiting the destination. Using the city of Bandung, Indonesia as a case study, data was collected using a structured questionnaire from 524 domestic tourists in several emerging smart destinations. The confirmatory factor analysis was utilised to test the construct validity and reliability of the model, while Partial Least Squares (PLS) modelling was employed to assess the hypotheses developed. The results show that the extended TPB model can reasonably predict the tourist behaviour towards smart tourism, suggesting its applicability to emerging smart destinations. Smart tourism technology directly affects tourists’ attitude, subjective norms, and tourists perceived behavioural control, resulting in their travel intention. Also, their planned behaviour mediates the relationship between smart tourism technology and tourist decision in selecting and visiting destinations. Identifying predictors of tourist behaviour towards smart tourism provides a more accurate forecast of tourist demand, thereby enabling policymakers to tailor and implement a more comprehensive smart tourism planning and development
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Mikhailov, S. A. "Digital pattern of life based tourist behaviour analysis system." Informatization and communication 5 (December 2020): 78–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.34219/2078-8320-2020-11-5-78-83.

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The tourism industry has grown rapidly in recent years, and IT technology is also having a big impact on tourists. Tourism services, information generated by tourists and other sources can be used to build models of tourist behavior. These models can improve the travel experience in various ways. The author presents the system for analyzing tourist behavior based on the concept of a digital pattern of life. The system determines the tourist, possible data sources, ways of storing and presenting data, as well as tools for analyzing behavior. The author used artifi cial neural networks to analyze behavior from a dataset of tourist travels made with cars. One scenario of tourist behavior using artifi cial neural networks is presented. The collected results will be used for improving tourist services.
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Leong, Quee-Ling, Shahrim Ab Karim, Khairil Wahidin Awang, and Ainul Zakiah Abu Bakar. "An integrated structural model of gastronomy tourists’ behaviour." International Journal of Culture, Tourism and Hospitality Research 11, no. 4 (October 2, 2017): 573–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijcthr-05-2016-0047.

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Purpose The purpose of this study is to provide an integrated model to explain the simultaneous impact of gastronomy and destination attractiveness on tourist behaviour. Design/methodology/approach A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Melaka and Penang, Malaysia, targeting international tourists. Structural equation modelling analysis was used to examine and explain the relationships hypothesized in the proposed model. Findings The fit indices indicated the model structure was satisfactory. Examination of the specific paths in the model indicated that gastronomy attractiveness was positively associated with destination attractiveness and tourist behaviour. Meanwhile, the effect of tourists’ variegated gastronomy affection on the perceived attractiveness of a destination and the area’s gastronomy produced mixed results. Research limitations/implications The study contributed to the theoretical understanding of two important theories which are recreation specialization and attitude in the context of gastronomy tourism. The linkages in the model were empirically supported by statistical analyses. Practical implications The varying degrees of gastronomy affection amongst tourists can be used as an input to examine tourist behaviour within the gastronomy tourism context while simultaneously highlighting the importance of gastronomy to tourist destinations. Social implications The findings of this study are also deemed to assist destination marketers who observe that tourists have become more demanding in search of unique experiences offered by destinations. Based on the hypothesized model, tourists’ past gastronomy experience was a superior predictor than gastronomy involvement and knowledge on perceived gastronomy attractiveness which sequentially elevate tourist’s perceived destination attractiveness. Originality/value The study provided an integrated model for predicting tourist behaviour using tourists’ gastronomy affection.
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Bhattacharya, Subhajit, and Rohit Vishal Kumar. "A RIDIT approach to evaluate factors influencing tourist destination brand selection behaviour pertaining to Indian tourism sector." Journal of Modelling in Management 12, no. 4 (November 6, 2017): 583–602. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jm2-05-2015-0029.

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Purpose This paper aims to examine the components or factors influencing tourists’ destination brand selection behaviour in Indian context with evidence-based management modelling by using the Relative to an Identified Distribution (RIDIT) approach. This evidence-based tourism marketing research has contributed to enhance understanding the tourists’ motivation to support decision in tourism marketing domain. The present study has focused on identifying the most relevant factors in the order of priority that influence destination brand-choice behaviour pertaining to Indian tourism sector. The current research has also tried to arrange the different items relating to tourists preferences for better understanding the insight of potential tourists relating to Indian-tourist destinations. Design/methodology/approach A descriptive, survey research design was chosen to investigate and organize the different components or items in degrees of priority to explain the tourists’ destination brand selection behaviour. In total, 387 empirical tourist samples were collected across India covering both domestic and international tourist segments. An evidence-based management modelling with RIDIT analysis is done to examine the factors, which have influencing role on tourist-destination brand choice behaviour related to Indian tourism market. Findings The outcome of this research paper should enable the tourism marketers, tourism service providers, tourism brand managers and consultants to create better linkages between the prospective tourists’ preferences and the marketing mix of the destination brands by using evidence based management modelling. Originality/value The present research is an original and innovative thought process, trying to evaluate the components or factors influencing tourists’ destination brand selection behaviour pertaining to Indian tourism sector by using the RIDIT approach. Research undertaken so far in tourism marketing area has investigated the different components related to tourism behaviour and destination-brand selection intention of the potential tourists in an unintended and less organized manner. This study can be seen as the first empirical evidence in the domain of tourism marketing where evidence based management modelling with RIDIT approach is done.
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Mikhailov, Sergei, and Alexey Kashevnik. "Tourist Behaviour Analysis Based on Digital Pattern of Life—An Approach and Case Study." Future Internet 12, no. 10 (September 28, 2020): 165. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/fi12100165.

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The tourism industry has been rapidly growing over the last years and IT technologies have had a great affect on tourists as well. Tourist behaviour analysis has been the subject of different research studies in recent years. This paper presents the digital pattern of life concept which simplifies the tourist behaviour models’ construction and usage. The digital pattern of life defines the general concepts of tourist behaviour, connects the tourist and the digital world and allows us to track behaviour changes over time. A literature review of the current state of the research in selected fields is performed for identifying the existing problems. The case studies of behaviour analysis based on classification, clustering and time series events behaviour models are shown. An ontological approach and artificial neural networks are used during behaviour model construction, training and evaluation. The gathered results can be used by smart tourism service developers and business stakeholders.
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Astuti, Ratih Dwi, and Diena M. Lemy. "ANALISIS FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHI WISATAWAN DALAM PEMILIHAN DESTINASI WISATA SEMASA PANDEMI COVID-19." Jurnal Pariwisata 9, no. 2 (September 13, 2022): 118–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.31294/par.v9i2.12388.

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AbstrakPenelitian mengenai perilaku wisatawan dalam memilih destinasi pariwisata di masa pandemi Covid-19, masih sangat jarang dilakukan. Hal ini penting, agar wisatawan tetap dapat melakukan kegiatan wisata dengan aman dan nyaman di masa pandemi Covid-19 dan memilih destinasi wisata yang sesuai dengan perilakunya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji dan menganalisis faktor kepribadian wisatawan, sikap wisatawan, kondisi sosial-ekonomi wisatawan, citra destinasi, fasilitas detinasi dan risiko kesehatan destinasi yang memengaruhi perilaku wisatawan JABODETABEK terhadap pemilihan destinasi wisata di masa pandemi Covid-19. Penelitian ini menggunakan teknik survei dengan sampel yang digunakan adalah masyarakat JABODETABEK yang pernah melakukan perjalanan wisata di masa pandemi Covid-19. Uji analisis pada penelitian ini menggunakan metode SEM-PLS dengan jumlah responden sebanyak 100 orang. Dari hasil penelitian diketahui terdapat tiga faktor yang memengaruhi pemilihan destinasi wisata di masa pandemi Covid-19 yaitu faktor kepribadian wisatawan, sikap wisatawan, dan citra destinasi. Kata Kunci : Perilaku wisatawan; Pemilihan Destinasi; Pandemi Covid-19 Abstract The research of tourists behaviour in the selection of tourism destination during pandemic Covid-19 is still very rarely done. This is important, so that tourists can still carry out tourist activities safely and comfortably during the Covid-19 pandemic and choose tourist destinations that are in accordance with their behavior. This research aims to study and analyze of tourist personality factors, tourist attitude factors, tourist socio-economic factors, destination image factors, destination facility factors, and destination health risk factorsthat influencing JABODETABEK tourists behaviour in the selection of tourism destination during Covid-19 pandemic. This is a survey research with a sample of JABODETABEK tourists who have traveled during Covid-19 pandemic. The analysis test in this study used SEM-PLS with a total of 100 respondents. In the results, there are three factors that influence the choice of tourist destinations during Covid-19 pandemic, namely the personality of tourists, tourist attitudes and the image of the destination. Keywords: Tourists Behavior; Destination Choice; Pandemic Covid-19
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Qin, Siyang, Jie Man, Xuzhao Wang, Can Li, Honghui Dong, and Xinquan Ge. "Applying Big Data Analytics to Monitor Tourist Flow for the Scenic Area Operation Management." Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society 2019 (January 1, 2019): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/8239047.

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Considering the rapid development of the tourist leisure industry and the surge of tourist quantity, insufficient information regarding tourists has placed tremendous pressure on traffic in scenic areas. In this paper, the author uses the Big Data technology and Call Detail Record (CDR) data with the mobile phone real-time location information to monitor the tourist flow and analyse the travel behaviour of tourists in scenic areas. By collecting CDR data and implementing a modelling analysis of the data to simultaneously reflect the distribution of tourist hot spots in Beijing, tourist locations, tourist origins, tourist movements, resident information, and other data, the results provide big data support for alleviating traffic pressure at tourist attractions and tourist routes in the city and rationally allocating traffic resources. The analysis shows that the big data analysis method based on the CDR data of mobile phones can provide real-time information about tourist behaviours in a timely and effective manner. This information can be applied for the operation management of scenic areas and can provide real-time big data support for “smart tourism”.
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Vodeb, Ksenija, and Helena Nemec Rudež. "Potential tourist destination development in the Istrian countryside." Tourism and hospitality management 16, no. 1 (May 2010): 75–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.20867/thm.16.1.6.

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The modern comprehension of tourist behaviour shows an urgent need to create a tourist destination as a system. Tourism supply needs to be integrated and well coordinated, including all necessary amenities for an enjoyable stay. The paper analyses tourists’ attitudes in coastal destinations of Istria towards sustainable tourist supply in the Istrian countryside. The Karst landscape of Istria consists of rural areas that provide ideal opportunities for rural tourism development. An empirical research was carried among the sample of 538 tourists in coastal tourist destinations of Slovenian Istria. Findings and implications of the research are given in the paper. There were foundcharacteristics and preferences of potential tourists. The main finding of the research is that more marketing efforts should be made to attract target markets of tourists.
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Zhang, Tonghao, Ping Yin, and Yuanxiang Peng. "Effect of Commercialization on Tourists’ Perceived Authenticity and Satisfaction in the Cultural Heritage Tourism Context: Case Study of Langzhong Ancient City." Sustainability 13, no. 12 (June 17, 2021): 6847. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13126847.

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Although some studies claim that tourism commercialization can promote the authentic experience and behaviour of tourists, there is a lack of empirical support. The main purpose of this study is to identify whether tourism commercialization can positively impact tourists’ perceived authenticity and tourist satisfaction in the context of cultural heritage tourism. We divide tourism authenticity into objective authenticity, constructive authenticity, existential authenticity and postmodern authenticity and propose a relationship model of tourism commercialization, the four authenticities, tourist satisfaction and loyalty. A survey was conducted in Langzhong Ancient City, a representative millennium-old county in China. A total of 618 valid domestic tourist questionnaires were collected. The partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) suitable for theory development was used for the conceptual model validation. The results indicate that tourism commercialization positively affects objective, constructive, existential and postmodern authenticity and tourist satisfaction; the four authenticities positively affect tourist satisfaction, while only objective and existential authenticity and tourist satisfaction positively affect tourist loyalty. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.
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Yang, Xueru, Haoming Li, Wenhong Chen, and Hui Fu. "Corporate Community Involvement and Chinese Rural Tourist Destination Sustainability." Sustainability 11, no. 6 (March 15, 2019): 1574. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11061574.

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Although rural tourism enterprises have played crucial roles in the prosperity of tourist destinations, environmental contamination due to corporate behaviour is also an important issue to consider. In this study, we introduce corporate community involvement theory to explore the antecedents and contingency effects of corporate green behaviour for tourist destination sustainability from the perspective of tourism corporate social responsibility. Using first-hand survey data collected in Guangdong and Anhui provinces, and matching second-hand data from the statistical yearbook and tourist destination government work reports, we found that corporate community involvement has a positive impact on the green behaviour of rural tourism enterprises. This association is moderated by place identity and the gross tourism receipts of destinations. By doing so, this research extends the scope of tourism environmental governance from ‘the bottom’ (for tourists) to ‘the top’ (for tourism enterprises). Meanwhile, this research provides feasible advice to policymakers by highlighting the coordination value of enterprises’ initiative strategies (e.g., corporate community involvement) and destination contingency.

Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Tourist behaviour":

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Tam, Pit-shing, and 譚必成. "Tourist buying behaviour in Hong Kong." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1986. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31263628.

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Tam, Pit-shing. "Tourist buying behaviour in Hong Kong /." Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 1986. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B12325910.

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Zillinger, Malin. "Guided tourism : the role of guidebooks in German tourist behaviour in Sweden." Doctoral thesis, Östersund : Umeå : European Tourism Research Institute (ETOUR) ; Department of Social and Economic Geography, Umeå University, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-1436.

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Ghatnekar, Payal. "Persuasive technology in tourism online experiences and implications on tourist buying behaviour." Thesis, University of Plymouth, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/9648.

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Online User Experiences (UXs) act as persuasive technology that can nudge users toward making behaviour change. This makes online UX integral to marketing. The tourism industry relies on UX to attract potential customers. Made up of 80% SMEs, the competition is high, hence the SMEs must deliver robust UXs that capture, persuade and convert users into customers. Tourism, despite being an early adopter of technology lags behind in terms of delivering UXs that meet users’ expectations. Furthermore, scholarly works exploring online UX as a persuasive technology within the tourism SMEs, specifically the day-attraction SMEs segment, are lacking. Using the theoretical framework of the Persuasive Systems Design (PSD) model, this research evaluates day attraction SMEs’ online UXs as persuasive technology. The research uses three mixed-methods to present the service providers’ and the users’ perspectives. The first method is a website content analysis that reviews the persuasive architecture of 102-day attraction websites. The second method uses questionnaires to get insights on tourists’ online usage, motivations, opinions and perceptions of online UX delivered by a single day attraction SME (case study). The third method, an eye tracking experiment is an extension to the questionnaires. The outcomes show that the SMEs’ incorporate persuasive UX elements corresponding to usability, visual aesthetics and credibility, but fail at incorporating strategies to support dialogue. The tourists’ suggest that usability, visual aesthetics and credibility UX elements affect their decision to buy, however, certain strategies that enhance dialogue, such as ability to win rewards, are likely to nudge them toward behaviour change. Furthermore, there appears to be a link between visual aesthetics and perceived usability, and their combined effect on persuasiveness. A final outcome establishes tourist’s website reading patterns, emphasising the placement of call-to-actions within an F-shape region. This research contributes through a customised version of the PSD model applicable for tourism SMEs, delivers empirical evidence suggesting additions to the model and, adds to the overall body of knowledge on tourism online UXs and persuasive technology.
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Thornton, Paul Robert. "Tourist behaviour on holiday : a time-space approach." Thesis, University of Exeter, 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.294480.

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Sertis, Steve. "Identification as a motivator of environmentally responsible tourist behaviour." Thesis, Edith Cowan University, Research Online, Perth, Western Australia, 1996. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/972.

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This study examined the use of information in motivating environmentally responsible behaviour. In light of the ineffectiveness of traditional educational methods that have focussed upon affecting behaviour by changing attitudes through the manipulation of cognitive variables, an attempt was made to produce a sense of identification with the Rottnest Island Quokka using the tripartite model of motivational bases of attitudes developed by Hills (1993 ). This model used to determine whether different kinds of information would produce changes in environmental behaviour. Three groups of tourists were given either no information; factual information, consistent with current educational techniques used to influence behaviour; or identification information designed to produce feelings of identification with the quokka directed at protecting the quokka and its environment. Results indicated that wording the same information differently affected the self-reported motivational bases of behaviour toward the quokkas and their environment. Identification motivations were reportedly higher with tourists given the identification information brochure compared to those given factual or no information. The literature suggests that with heightened identification motivations, instrumental motivations are likely to be reduced. Results offered no support for this argument. Furthermore, behavioural observations indicated that the manipulation did not lead to differences in the behaviour of tourists across the three information groups. Behavioural observations of the interactions between tourists and quokkas highlighted the role of instrumental motivations among tourists. Whilst instrumental motivations should therefore be recognised and incorporated into any educational or environmental strategy aimed at protecting the environment, it is suggested that further research is needed to better understand how alternative motivations, such as one with an identification base, can better promote a valuing of the environment and its fauna for its own sake
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Dirir, Khalid. "Approaches to behaviour change in highly mobile tourists : Investigating influencers and attitudes to high mobility travel." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för organisation och entreprenörskap (OE), 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-54317.

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Tourism mitigation is a contentious issue that requires a multifaceted approach to effectively achieve. The need to reduce personal traveling expenditure in order to mitigate the greenhouse gas emissions caused by tourism has not suitably been infiltrated within the public consciousness. Furthermore, those travellers who have been exposed to the reality that greenhouse gas emissions from tourism has often disregard that information and continue with their behaviour regardless.  This thesis aimed to investigate the reasons why those who travel the most in society, the hypermobile, choses to travel as much as they do and how this demand for travel could be curbed. It focused on three forms of tourism mitigation; government regulations, increases to the price of air travel and social marketing. The study was conducted with 10 individuals who self-identify as being highly mobile (more than 3 international return trips per year). The results showed that those who no single method of tourism mitigation would be effective in the goal of limiting highly mobile behavioural tendencies. A mixture of all three methods would be required in reaching the goal of lowering the levels of distance air travel consumption.
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McIntosh, Alison Jane. "The experiences and benefits gained by tourists visiting socio-industrial heritage attractions." Thesis, Open University, 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.361458.

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Wilson, Julie. "An holistic approach to tourist place images and spatial behaviour." Thesis, University of the West of England, Bristol, 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.249415.

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In recent years, the city has become a primary setting for a diversity of tourist activities. However, the nature of the urban experience, from the perspective of tourist-city interactions, has not been examined in detail. In this particular arena, the concepts of place image and the tourist experience are very relevant, as processes of tourist image formation and modification are linked to the formation of tourists' expectations. In tum, expectations can have the potential to influence tourist choices and spatial behaviour patterns, in the event of an actual visit. Certainly, probability of patronage of a tourist attraction would appear to relate directly to how well that location fits into the simplified 'cognitive map' held by the individual. Overall, knowledge of how individual and groups of tourists interact and acquire information about the urban environment has also been under researched. The thesis therefore examines the main interrelationships between tourists' place images, expectations and spatial behaviour. It introduces an approach for examining such relationships from a more holistic, interdisciplinary perspective than has been employed in previous tourism image and behaviour research. Notably, a longitudinal dimension is introduced for the study of image modification, using an innovative, multi-stage approach. By elaborating, critiquing and applying some of the key concepts in tourist imagery and spatial behaviour in the context of tourist-historic cities, the thesis identifies a connection between tourists' images and spatial behaviour. The UK historic cities of Exeter and Bath were used as case studies for the empirical application of the multi-method framework, and primary data were collected via questionnaires, an experimental panel of visitors and semi-structured interviews. As well as contributing new themes to current theoretical and conceptual debates, the empirical findings identify a clear niche for image-behaviour relationships as a highly relevant concept for tourism studies. In particular, tourists' spatial behaviour is shown to influence the content of tourists' urban images, and in tum, tourists' images of the city can predispose them to certain activity choices. Conclusions are also drawn regarding the influences of different 'image formation agents' and direct tourist experience of a city as a strong agent of image modification.
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Santos, Vasco Ribeiro dos. "Consumer behaviour in wine tourism: involvement, destination emotions and place attachment in the wine tourist behaviour during the Porto wine cellars visits context." Doctoral thesis, [s.n.], 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10284/5366.

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Tese apresentada à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Ciências Empresariais
This study aims to contribute to the conceptual development of consumer behaviour in wine tourism area by bringing new discussion and empirical evidences. For this, a literature review of the main concepts was conducted in order to develop and support a conceptual model. This model was subsequently validated and empirically tested, and a hypothetical relationship between constructs was established: involvement (personal involvement and wine product involvement), destination emotions and place attachment (place identity and place dependence). This is, so far, the first study that analyses the combined interaction of all these constructs. This research was undertaken in the framework of wine tourism, namely the measurement of the wine tourist behavior after visiting the Porto wine cellars. Methodologically, the first chapter is a qualitative exploratory study that performed a content analysis on the key constructs (involvement and emotions), allowing a better understanding of how they can be defined, and the main dimensions underlying each one of them. The second chapter consisted of a conceptual approach, which focused on the clarification of the definition of wine tourism, and the wine tourist behaviour in particular. It also explored the possible relations between constructs (involvement, destination emotions, place attachment and behavioural intentions), postulating the key preposition that stems from their interaction. In the third chapter, a quantitative research was used, using a personal intercept survey in the Porto wine cellars to validate and to give empirical evidences about the behaviour of the Porto wine cellar visitor. The multilevel analysis of the proposed structural model was made using the SmartPLS software, allowing the confirmation of all the proposed hypotheses. In the first chapter, the findings provided a theoretical support of the relevance of involvement and emotions constructs in the field of tourism. The content analysis produced insights based on concepts and definitions of these two constructs on a more holistic perspective. In the second chapter, the findings sustain the special interest in consumer behaviour in wine tourism, and it stated a set of five prepositions, where the main constructs are interlinked. In the third chapter, the empirical results indicated that wine tourists’ personal involvement and their wine product involvement have a significant influence (and a direct effect) on destination emotions and place attachment, driving their behavioural intentions. The study had direct implications (analysis and evaluation of the wine tourist travel behaviour and wine tourist profile) for the Porto wine cellars. The results led to practical implications and suggestions for wine tourism managers. Este estudo tem como propósito contribuir para o desenvolvimento conceptual do comportamento do consumidor na área do enoturismo, contribuindo com uma nova discussão e evidências empíricas. Foi realizada uma revisão da literatura sobre os principais construtos, a fim de desenvolver e apoiar um modelo conceptual. Este modelo foi posteriormente validado e testado empiricamente, e foi estabelecida uma relação hipotética entre os construtos: envolvimento (envolvimento pessoal e envolvimento com o produto vinho), as emoções do destino e apego ao lugar (identidade do lugar e dependência do lugar). Até agora, este é o primeiro estudo que analisa a interação combinada de todos estes construtos. Esta pesquisa foi realizada no âmbito do enoturismo, ou seja, a medição do comportamento do enoturista após visitar as caves do vinho do Porto. Relativamente à metodologia aplicada, o primeiro capítulo é um estudo qualitativo exploratório que resultou numa análise de conteúdo sobre os construtos chave (envolvimento e emoções), permitindo uma melhor compreensão de como eles podem ser definidos, e as principais dimensões subjacentes a cada um deles. O segundo capítulo consistiu numa abordagem conceptual que incidiu sobre a clarificação da definição de enoturismo, e o comportamento do enoturista em particular. Este capítulo também explorou as possíveis relações entre os construtos (envolvimento, emoções do destino, apego ao lugar e intenções comportamentais), que determinam a preposição chave que decorre de sua interação. No terceiro capítulo, uma pesquisa quantitativa, foi utilizado um questionário estruturado nas caves do vinho do Porto, para validar e dar evidências empíricas sobre o comportamento do visitante nas caves do vinho do Porto. Foi realizada a análise multivariada do modelo estrutural proposto, utilizando o software SmartPLS, que permitiu a confirmação de todas as hipóteses propostas. No primeiro capítulo, os resultados forneceram um suporte teórico da relevância dos construtos do envolvimento e das emoções na área do turismo. A análise de conteúdo produziu perceções com base em conceitos e definições destes dois construtos, numa perspetiva mais holística. No segundo capítulo, os resultados sustentam o especial interesse no comportamento do consumidor no enoturismo, e foi apresentado um conjunto de 5 preposições, onde os principais construtos são interligados. No terceiro capítulo, os resultados empíricos indicam que o envolvimento pessoal dos enoturistas e o seu envolvimento com o produto vinho têm uma influência significativa (e um efeito direto) sobre as emoções do destino e o apego ao lugar, impulsionando as suas intenções comportamentais. O estudo teve implicações diretas (análise e avaliação do comportamento de viagem do enoturista e perfil do enoturista) para as caves do vinho do Porto. Os resultados levaram a implicações práticas e sugestões para os gestores de enoturismo. Cette étude a pour but contribuer pour le développement conceptuel du comportement du consommateur en oenotourisme, apportant une nouvelle discussion et des évidences empiriques. Il a été faite une révision de la littérature à propos des principaux concepts, a fin de développer et soutenir un modèle conceptuel. Ce modèle a été ensuite validé et testé empiriquement, et il a été établi un rapport hypothétique entre les concepts : engagement (engagement personnel et engagement avec le produit vin), émotions du destin, attachement à l’endroit (identité et dépendance de l’endroit). Celle-ci c’est, jusqu`à présent, la première étude qui analyse l’interaction combinée des tous ces concepts. Cette recherche a été réalisée dans le cadre de l’oenotourisme, ça veut dire le mesurage du comportement de l’oenotouriste après visiter les caves du vin Porto. Méthodologiquement le premier chapitre c’est une étude qualitative exploratoire qui a réalisé une analyse du contenu sur les concepts clé (engagement et émotions), en permettant une meilleure compréhension de la façon dont ils peuvent être définis, ainsi que les dimensions principales inhérentes à chacun d’eux. Le second chapitre a consisté dans une approche conceptuelle qui portait sur la précision de la définition de l’oenotourisme, et le comportement de l’oenotouriste en particulier. Ce chapitre a aussi exploité les éventuels rapports entre les concepts (engagement, émotions du destin, attachement à l’endroit et intentions comportementales) qui postulent la préposition clé qui découle de son interaction. Dans le troisième chapitre, une recherche quantitative, il a été utilisé un questionnaire structuré dans les caves du vin Porto, a fin de valider et de donner des évidences empiriques sur le comportement du visiteur dans les caves du vin Porto. Il a été réalisé l’analyse multifactorielle du modèle structurel proposé, en utilisant le software SmartPLS qui a permis la confirmation de toutes les hypothèses proposées. Dans le premier article, les résultats ont fourni un soutien théorique de la pertinence des concepts de l’engagement et des émotions dans le domaine du tourisme. L’analyse du contenu a produit des perceptions ayant comme base des conceptions et définitions de ces deux concepts, dans un point de vue plus holistique. Dans le second article, les résultats soutiennent le spécial intérêt dans le comportement du consommateur dans l’oenotourisme, et il a été présenté un ensemble de 5 prépositions, où les principales constructions sont interconnectées. Dans le troisième article, les résultats empiriques indiquent que l’engagement avec le produit vin ont une influence significative (et un effet direct) sur les émotions du destin et l’attachement à l’endroit, en poussant ses intentions comportementales. L’étude a eu des implications directes (analyse et évaluation du comportement de voyage de l’oenotouriste et profil de l’oenotouriste) pour les caves du vin Porto. Les résultats ont amené à des implications pratiques et suggestions pour les gestionnaires de l’oenotourisme.

Books on the topic "Tourist behaviour":

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Bowen, David. Contemporary Tourist Behaviour. 2nd ed. GB: CABI, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781786391711.0000.

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Wen, Jun, and Metin Kozak. Chinese Outbound Tourist Behaviour. London: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003121329.

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Bowen, D., and J. Clarke, eds. Contemporary tourist behaviour: yourself and others as tourists. Wallingford: CABI, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781845935207.0000.

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Bowen, David. Contemporary tourist behaviour: Yourself and others and tourists. Cambridge, MA: CABI, 2009.

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Kozak, M., and N. Kozak, eds. Tourist behaviour: an international perspective. Wallingford: CABI, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781780648125.0000.

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Pearce, Philip L. Tourist behaviour and the contemporary world. Bristol: Channel View Publications, 2011.

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Roura, Ricardo. The footprint of polar tourism: Tourist behaviour at cultural heritage sites in Antarctica and Svalbard. [ Eelde, the Netherlands]: Barkhuis, 2011.

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Papadimitris, Ioannis N. The short-run and long-run behaviour of the Greek tourist industry. Manchester: University of Manchester, 1994.

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Groshev, Igor', and Evgeniy Korchagin. Tourism for the elderly. ru: INFRA-M Academic Publishing LLC., 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/1027444.

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The monograph proposes a methodology of new marketing, structural and economic-management approaches for tourism organizations in the modern conjuncture of tourism for the elderly. Approaches that take into account the consumer behavior of older people and other age groups, retired, proposed in this paper, can be more effectively used to involve these categories in tourism. The aging of the population and demographic changes in the structure of consumers of tourist products require Russian travel companies to optimize their approaches and strategies, rebuild the tourism infrastructure to organize the supply of products in demand in the world tourism market that meet the needs of older people. The assessment of relevance of tourist products and their elements to requirements of elderly tourists is presented. It is intended for teachers, postgraduates and students of higher educational institutions, specialists in the organization of tourist activities, heads of travel agencies, researchers and all those who are interested in the development of tourism activities.
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Menzies, Christopher. Evaluation of Web based tourist information: Development of a best practice criteria with reference to information design and user behaviour. Birmingham: University of Central England in Birmingham, 2000.

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Book chapters on the topic "Tourist behaviour":

1

Horner, Susan, and Swarbrooke John. "Researching tourist behaviour." In Consumer Behaviour in Tourism, 261–80. Fourth edition. | Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Routledge, 2021. | First and second editions entered under: Swarbrooke, John.: Routledge, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003046721-17.

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Fan, Yedan, Salmi Mohd Isa, and Shaohua Yang. "Experience economy in wellness tourism to attract Chinese outbound tourists." In Chinese Outbound Tourist Behaviour, 92–104. London: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003121329-9.

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Wen, Jun, and Metin Kozak. "Chinese outbound tourist behaviour." In Chinese Outbound Tourist Behaviour, 1–17. London: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003121329-1.

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Gajdošík, Tomáš. "Changing tourist behaviour along the tourist journey." In Smart Tourism Destination Governance, 57–80. London: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003269342-6.

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Acar, Vedat. "Chinese tourists' behavior on package tours in Turkey." In Chinese Outbound Tourist Behaviour, 134–45. London: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003121329-12.

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Horner, Susan, and Swarbrooke John. "Typologies of tourist behaviour and segmentation of the tourism market." In Consumer Behaviour in Tourism, 131–56. Fourth edition. | Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Routledge, 2021. | First and second editions entered under: Swarbrooke, John.: Routledge, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003046721-10.

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Horner, Susan, and Swarbrooke John. "The history of tourist behaviour." In Consumer Behaviour in Tourism, 15–49. Fourth edition. | Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Routledge, 2021. | First and second editions entered under: Swarbrooke, John.: Routledge, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003046721-3.

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Irani, Foad, Sina Vahedi, and Sima Rahimizhian. "Effects of COVID-19 knowledge on Chinese tourists' intentions for medical purposes." In Chinese Outbound Tourist Behaviour, 224–36. London: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003121329-19.

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Hu, Fangli, and Han Shen. "Destination food image." In Chinese Outbound Tourist Behaviour, 146–64. London: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003121329-13.

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Zhao, Xiaodan, and Nitasha Sharma. "Local perceptions and behavior of Chinese tourists at the tulip fields in the Netherlands." In Chinese Outbound Tourist Behaviour, 165–79. London: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003121329-14.

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Conference papers on the topic "Tourist behaviour":

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Ahmadi, Norsyakira, Mohd Hairi Jalis, Fathilah Ismail, Abdul Wahab Mohamad Rahijan, and Wan Zainal Shukri Wan Hafiz. "DOMESTIC TOURISTS NEW DINING BEHAVIOUR IN RELATION TO COVID-19 AT ISLAND SETTING IN TERENGGANU, MALAYSIA." In GLOBAL TOURISM CONFERENCE 2021. PENERBIT UMT, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.46754/gtc.2021.11.030.

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Today, the tourism industry has grown rapidly and many destinations have been recognised as tourist niches in a bid to stay competitive in the industry. Island tourism is one of the most popular tourism niches. Island tourism in Malaysia has lured tourists from all over the world to come to Malaysia, offering tourist a unique and unforgettable tourism experience. It has become one of the most famous types of activities tourists. Moreover, tourists are showing an increasing interest in local foods at the destination and dining has become a special experience while on vacation. Dining itself is a pleasurable sensory experience that is a key part of the holiday experience, which influences a tourists’ experience and makes it memorable and this in turn influences the tourist’s intention to revisit the destination, especially an island destination. However, the recent COVID-19 pandemic, the subsequent Movement Control Order (MCO) and COVID-19 Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) enforced to control the spread of the pandemic have significantly influenced tourists dining behaviours and perceptions particularly with regard to dine-in options at any food establishment/outlets.
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Lily Dianasari, Dewa, Ni Tirtawati, I. B. Negarayana, Hanugerah K L, I. Gede Saputra, and Dewa Aridayanti. "Tourist Behaviour Choosing Homestay In Bali." In Proceedings of the 1st Padjadjaran Communication Conference Series, PCCS 2019, 9 October 2019, Bandung, West Java, Indonesia. EAI, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4108/eai.9-10-2019.2291148.

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SOUCY, ALYSSA, and SANDRA DE URIOSTE-STONE. "TOURIST BEHAVIOUR AND TICK-BORNE DISEASE RISK." In SUSTAINABLE TOURISM 2020. Southampton UK: WIT Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/st200071.

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PANUSBORDEE, SANPET, and SUPA PANUSBORDEE. "Tourist Tragic News A Case of Its Effects on Tourism in Thailand." In Fifth International Conference On Advances In Economics, Social Science and Human Behaviour Study - ESSHBS 2016. Institute of Research Engineers and Doctors, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.15224/978-1-63248-107-8-38.

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Stefanović, Vidoje, and Nedžad Azemović. "PSYCHOLOGICAL DETERMINANTS OF TOURIST DEMANDS IN THE FUTURE TOURISM." In Tourism International Scientific Conference Vrnjačka Banja - TISC. FACULTY OF HOTEL MANAGEMENT AND TOURISM IN VRNJAČKA BANJA UNIVERSITY OF KRAGUJEVAC, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.52370/tisc22615vs.

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Psychological explanation of consumer behaviour is mostly focused on the research of individual behaviour. In this case, psychology studies internal (interpersonal) variables related to the mental state and personality characteristics of individuals. Since it is impossible to directly analyse processes that take place in man, psychology uses the methods and techniques of direct reasoning. Psychology has made a significant contribution in the explanation of the motives and behaviour of tourists as consumers. This is especially true for motivational research which has provided the most complete answer to the question of why consumers behave the way they do when buying products and services. Personality characteristics are the subject of psychological research of consumer behaviour; attitudes, evaluations and emotions of individuals represent an essential component of the thought structure of individuals. The paper will consider various psychological determinants from the aspect of their influence on the present tourist demand as well as on the tourist demand in some future period.
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Ștefănică, Mirela, and Sandu Christiana Brigitte. "Developing a Typology of Green Tourists. Empirical Study From Romania." In 7th International Scientific Conference ERAZ - Knowledge Based Sustainable Development. Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.31410/eraz.2021.319.

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This study seeks to develop a typology of tourists according to their attitude and behaviour in relation to the natural environment. A sur­vey was conducted on a sample of tourists in one of the representative nat­ural tourist areas of Romania based on a face-to-face questionnaire. The typology of green tourists has been created based on 28 items measuring consumer or participatory behaviour. The study provides a segmentation of tourists into three eco-types: eco-destructive, eco-impartial, and eco-in­volved. These segments were analysed by gender, age and level of studies in order to observe specific similarities or differences set for each criterion. The main findings on the impact of tourist activity on the environment un­derline the importance for tourists to be more careful and concerned about solving the environment and enhancing green behaviour.
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Thomas, Alfian, Hassnah Wee, Faiz Izwan Anuar, and Norliza Aminudin. "AUGMENTED S-O-R MODEL ON EDUCATIONAL TOURISM IN MALAYSIA: EDUCATIONAL TOURIST, INSTITUTIONAL AND DESTINATION PERSPECTIVES." In GLOBAL TOURISM CONFERENCE 2021. PENERBIT UMT, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.46754/gtc.2021.11.035.

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The Novel Corona Virus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak has decreased international students’ enrolment in public and private educational institutions. The educational tourism industry can achieve better benefits if the service providers and policymakers become more proactive in understanding educational tourist behaviour when dealing with challenges during the pandemic. This study examines whether educational tourist and institutional physiognomies affect the relationship between motivation facets and destination selection behaviour within an augmented Stimuli-Organism-Response (S-O-R) model. This paper analyses the issues and objectives for the forthcoming study through several works of literature from various disciplines. The outcomes of the review proposed a conceptual framework to extend the S-O-R model in future research focusing on the relationship between educational tourist motivational facets, educational tourist and institution physiognomies, and destination selection behaviour.
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Vacl, Josef. "Microbreweries as Attractive Tourist Destinations in the Czech Republic." In Annual International Conference on Business Strategy and Organizational Behaviour. Global Science & Technology Forum (GSTF), 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.5176/2251-1970_bizstrategy14.28.

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V, Keertika, Taruni B, Bhavan R, Mirza Shafeen Begum, and Shaik Ashiya. "Big data Analytics based Tourist Behaviour Analysis." In 2021 6th International Conference on Communication and Electronics Systems (ICCES). IEEE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icces51350.2021.9489047.

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Almadani, Nadin, Thu Huong Nguyen, and Scott Bingley. "FACTORS INFLUENCING TRAVEL BEHAVIOURAL INTENTIONS OF INTERNATIONAL TOURISTS TO SAUDI ARABIA." In GLOBAL TOURISM CONFERENCE 2021. PENERBIT UMT, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.46754/gtc.2021.11.034.

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This research aims to identify the factors affecting the behaviour of international tourists based on online reviews. To further understand tourist perceptions and opinions from online posts reviews Netnography approach has been implemented. A few studies have used Netnography to investigate online reviews of hotels and restaurants, but there has been limited examinations of online reviews of tourist attractions. To date, no studies have been done on this concerning Saudi Arabia. The OutWit Hub software was used to extract TripAdvisor reviews and content automatically. The data collection focused on attractions (Things To Do) located in Jeddah and Riyadh, the most populated cities in Saudi Arabia with a wide range of attractions and activities, including sights and landmarks, nature parks, and museums. The following approaches were utilised for netnographic analysis: first form the studied culture or group; collect data; analysis and interpretation: report on study findings and comprehend the theoretical consequences. The most significant findings were that the data supported correlations between visitors’ behavioural intentions, travel motivations and experience quality. This research provides evidence that travel motivations and experience quality affect the development of tourist behavioural intentions. This research offers policymakers, destination planners and industry professionals a proper and thorough analysis of tourists’ behaviour and needs.

Reports on the topic "Tourist behaviour":

1

Davis, Lizhu, Xiaowen Qiu, and Dean Davis. Chinese tourists' shopping behavior in the United States. Ames: Iowa State University, Digital Repository, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.31274/itaa_proceedings-180814-296.

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Vargas-Herrera, Hernando, Juan Jose Ospina-Tejeiro, Carlos Alfonso Huertas-Campos, Adolfo León Cobo-Serna, Edgar Caicedo-García, Juan Pablo Cote-Barón, Nicolás Martínez-Cortés, et al. Monetary Policy Report - April de 2021. Banco de la República de Colombia, July 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr2-2021.

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1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
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Monetary Policy Report - October 2021. Banco de la República, December 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr4-2021.

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Abstract:
Macroeconomic summary Economic activity has recovered faster than projected, and output is now expected to return to pre-pandemic levels earlier than anticipated. Economic growth projections for 2021 and 2022 have been revised upward, though significant downward bias remains. (Graph 1.1). Colombia’s economy returned to recovery in the third quarter after significant supply shocks and a third wave of COVID-19 in the second. Negative shocks affecting mobility and output were absent in the third quarter, and some indicators of economic activity suggest that the rate of recovery in demand, primarily in consumption, outpaced estimates from the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) in the context of widely expansive monetary policy. Several factors are expected to continue to contribute to output recovery for the rest of the year and into 2022, including the persistence of favorable international financial conditions, an expected improvement in external demand, and an increase in terms of trade. Increasing vaccination rates, the expectation of higher levels of employment and the consequent effect on household income, improved investment performance (which has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels), and the expected stimulus from monetary policy that would continue to be expansive should also drive economic activity. As a result, output is estimated to have returned to its pre-pandemic level in the third quarter (previously expected in the fourth quarter). Growth is expected to decelerate in 2022, with excess productive capacity projected to close faster than anticipated in the previous report. Given the above, GDP growth projections have been revised upward for 2021 (9.8%, range between 8.4% and 11.2%) and 2022 (4.7%, range between 0.7% and 6.5%). If these estimates are confirmed, output would have grown by 2.3% on average between 2020 and 2022. This figure would be below long-term sustainable growth levels projected prior to the pandemic. The revised growth forecast for 2022 continues to account for a low basis of comparison from this year (reflecting the negative effects of COVID-19 and roadblocks in some parts of the country), and now supposes that estimated consumption levels for the end of 2021 will remain relatively stable in 2022. Investment and net exports are expected to recover at a faster pace than estimated in the previous report. Nevertheless, the downward risks to these estimates remain unusually significant, for several reasons. First, they do not suppose significant negative effects on the economy from possible new waves of COVID-19. Second, because private consumption, which has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could perform less favorably than estimated in this forecast should it reflect a temporary phenomenon related to suppressed demand as service sectors re-open (e.g. tourism) and private savings accumulated during the pandemic are spent. Third, disruptions to supply chains could be more persistent than contemplated in this report and could continue to affect production costs, with a negative impact on the economy. Finally, the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances could translate to increased vulnerability to changes in international financial conditions or in international and domestic economic agents’ perception of risk in the Colombian economy, representing a downward risk to growth. A higher-than-expected increase in inflation, the persistence of supply shocks, and reduced excess productive capacity have led to an increase in inflation projections above the target on the forecast horizon (Graph 1.2). Inflation increased above expectations to 4.51% in the third quarter, due in large part to the price behavior of foods and regulated items, and to a lesser extent to core inflation. Increased international prices and costs continue to generate upward pressure on various sub-baskets of the consumer price index (CPI), as has the partial reversion of some price relief measures implemented in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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