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Academic literature on the topic 'Tourism Forecasting Methodology'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 10 December 2022
Last updated: 28 January 2023

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Journal articles on the topic "Tourism Forecasting Methodology"

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Krasić, Davor, and Petra Gatti. "Forecasting Methodology of Maritime Passenger Demand in a Tourist Destination." PROMET - Traffic&Transportation 21, no. 3 (March 2, 2012): 183–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.7307/ptt.v21i3.224.

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Maritime passenger demand forecasting is a task that is almost always present in the development studies of passenger ports, both due to operational and investment requirements. If a port belongs to a tourist destination, then there is a reasonable intention to use the forecasting model in order to establish the dependence between the passenger and tourist demand. Since the reliability of forecasting depends to a great extent on the quality and availability of data, the forecasting model is often a compromise between the theoretical assumptions and practical possibilities. This paper presents the approach to maritime passenger demand forecasting using a case study of the tourist destination – Poreč, which has been the strongest destination in Croatia regarding tourist traffic for many years. The presented forecasting models can serve as one of the guidelines for further study of the relations between traffic and tourism. KEY WORDS: forecasting maritime passenger demand, forecasting tourist demand, traffic and tourism
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Li, Xin, and Rob Law. "Forecasting Tourism Demand with Decomposed Search Cycles." Journal of Travel Research 59, no. 1 (January 28, 2019): 52–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0047287518824158.

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This study aims to examine whether decomposed search engine data can be used to improve the forecasting accuracy of tourism demand. The methodology was applied to predict monthly tourist arrivals from nine countries to Hong Kong. Search engine data from Google Trends were first decomposed into different components using an ensemble empirical mode decomposition method and then the cyclical components were examined through statistical analysis. Forecasting models with rolling window estimation were implemented to predict the tourist arrivals to Hong Kong. Results indicate the proposed methodology can outperform the benchmark model in the out-of-sample forecasting evaluation of Choi and Varian (2012). The findings also demonstrate that our proposed methodology is superior in forecasting turning points. This study proposes a unique decomposition-based perspective on tourism forecasting using online search engine data.
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Kyfyak, Vasyl, and Olexander Kyfyak. "A Methodology for Calculating Individual Indicators of Tourism Activity." Turyzm 28, no. 1 (June 1, 2018): 41–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/tour-2018-0005.

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Abstract The purpose of the article is to find modern approaches for calculating the quantity of given characteristic features and accompanying tourist services and goods purchased by tourists, to determine the number of tourists visiting a city and forecasting the volume of travel services for the future. Solutions to the tasks set out in the article have been carried out with the help of both general academic and specialist research methods: analysis and synthesis, systematization and generalization, expert evaluation and extrapolation. Using the example of the city of Chernivtsi (Ukraine) the number of tourists visiting the city has been determined, the volume of services rendered and the average annual growth rate of tourism service implementation over the last five years has been calculated contributing to forecasting the volume of service delivery for the future.
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Kyfyak, Vasyl, and Olexander Kyfyak. "A methodology for calculating individual indicators of tourism activity." Turyzm/Tourism 28, no. 1 (June 30, 2018): 41–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.18778/0867-5856.28.1.13.

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The purpose of the article is to find modern approaches for calculating the quantity of given characteristic features and accompanying tourist services and goods purchased by tourists, to determine the number of tourists visiting a city and forecasting the volume of travel services for the future. Solutions to the tasks set out in the article have been carried out with the help of both general academic and specialist research methods: analysis and synthesis, systematization and generalization, expert evaluation and extrapolation. Using the example of the city of Chernivtsi (Ukraine) the number of tourists visiting the city has been determined, the volume of services rendered and the average annual growth rate of tourism service implementation over the last five years has been calculated contributing to forecasting the volume of service delivery for the future.
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Shulhina, Liudmyla. "Methodology for Forecasting Revenues from the Sale of Innovative Products in the Domestic Tourism Market." Marketing of Scientific and Research Organizations 41, no. 3 (September 1, 2021): 95–114. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/minib-2021-0016.

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Abstract This article presents a methodology for forecasting the expected sales of innovative tourism products in the domestic market. The principles of the product life cycle concept and consumer behavior theory are taken as starting points for calculating the sales volumes of an innovative product as well as the rate of its penetration into the market. A method of measuring the level of consumer commitment to a travel agency and its offerings is posited, and the relationship between the structure of the target market and market activity in purchasing tourist products is demonstrated. Deep market segmentation is applied to take into account the behavioral peculiarities of individual subsegments (Loyalists Market, Sympathizers Market, Qualified Market, Finders Market, Serviced Market, Possible Market, Potential Consumers Market, Perspective Market). Formulas are proposed for calculating the volume of each of the identified markets. An improved and adapted model for the tourist market (by E. Rogers and F. Bass) is used to calculate the diffusion rates of domestic tourist products. This methodology of forecasting the expected sales of innovative tourism products in the domestic market is empirically confirmed based on data on the domestic tourism market in the region of Vinnytsiya, Ukraine.
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Li, Gang, and Xiaoying Jiao. "Tourism forecasting research: a perspective article." Tourism Review 75, no. 1 (January 15, 2020): 263–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/tr-09-2019-0382.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide a short review of tourism forecasting literature and general summary of the trends and developments in tourism forecasting and point out directions for future research in the next 75 years. Design/methodology/approach This is a general literature overview. Findings Key trends are identified for next 75 years. Originality/value First overview in tourism forecasting that provides foresight on long-term future trends (over next 75 years).
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Pirthee, Medha. "Grey-based model for forecasting Mauritius international tourism from different regions." Grey Systems: Theory and Application 7, no. 2 (August 7, 2017): 259–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/gs-04-2017-0008.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand the trend and forecast the number of tourists from different regions of the world to Mauritius. Design/methodology/approach The paper adopts two grey system models, the even model GM(1,1) and the non-homogeneous discrete grey model (NDGM), to forecast the total number of international tourism to Mauritius and its structure from different regions tourist arrivals to Mauritius for the next three years. Grey system theory models were used to account for uncertainties and the dynamism of the tourism sector environment. The two models were applied as a comparison to obtain more reliable forecasting figures. Findings The results demonstrate that both of the grey system models can be successfully applied with high accuracy for Mauritian tourism prediction, and also the number of tourist arrivals to Mauritius shows a continued augmentation for the upcoming years. Practical implications Forecasting is meaningful since the Government of Mauritius, private companies or any concerned authority can adopt the forecasting methods exposed in this paper for the development of the tourism sector through managerial and economic decision making. Originality/value Mauritius is a charming travel destination. Through this paper, it can be seen that future tourism travel to Mauritius has been successfully predicted based on previous data. Moreover, it seems that the grey system theory models have not been utilised yet as forecasting tools for the tourism sector of Mauritius as opposed to other countries such as China and Taiwan.
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Moro, Sérgio, and Paulo Rita. "Forecasting tomorrow’s tourist." Worldwide Hospitality and Tourism Themes 8, no. 6 (December 5, 2016): 643–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/whatt-09-2016-0046.

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Purpose This study aims to present a very recent literature review on tourism demand forecasting based on 50 relevant articles published between 2013 and June 2016. Design/methodology/approach For searching the literature, the 50 most relevant articles according to Google Scholar ranking were selected and collected. Then, each of the articles were scrutinized according to three main dimensions: the method or technique used for analyzing data; the location of the study; and the covered timeframe. Findings The most widely used modeling technique continues to be time series, confirming a trend identified prior to 2011. Nevertheless, artificial intelligence techniques, and most notably neural networks, are clearly becoming more used in recent years for tourism forecasting. This is a relevant subject for journals related to other social sciences, such as Economics, and also tourism data constitute an excellent source for developing novel modeling techniques. Originality/value The present literature review offers recent insights on tourism forecasting scientific literature, providing evidences on current trends and revealing interesting research gaps.
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Hu, Mingming, Mengqing Xiao, and Hengyun Li. "Which search queries are more powerful in tourism demand forecasting: searches via mobile device or PC?" International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management 33, no. 6 (May 31, 2021): 2022–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijchm-06-2020-0559.

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Purpose While relevant research has considered aggregated data from mobile devices and personal computers (PCs), tourists’ search patterns on mobile devices and PCs differ significantly. This study aims to explore whether decomposing aggregated search queries based on the terminals from which these queries are generated can enhance tourism demand forecasting. Design/methodology/approach Mount Siguniang, a national geopark in China, is taken as a case study in this paper; another case, Kulangsu in China, is used as the robustness check. The authors decomposed the total Baidu search volume into searches from mobile devices and PCs. Weekly rolling forecasts were used to test the roles of decomposed and aggregated search queries in tourism demand forecasting. Findings Search queries generated from PCs can greatly improve forecasting performance compared to those from mobile devices and to aggregate search volumes from both terminals. Models incorporating search queries generated via multiple terminals did not necessarily outperform those incorporating search queries generated via a single type of terminal. Practical implications Major players in the tourism industry, including hotels, tourist attractions and airlines, can benefit from identifying effective search terminals to forecast tourism demand. Industry managers can also leverage search indices generated through effective terminals for more accurate demand forecasting, which can in turn inform strategic decision-making and operations management. Originality/value This study represents one of the earliest attempts to apply decomposed search query data generated via different terminals in tourism demand forecasting. It also enriches the literature on tourism demand forecasting using search engine data.
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Panchenko, Svitlana. "Management of the sphere of tourism in a specific market of Ukraine." Problems of innovation and investment-driven department, no. 18 (February 12, 2019): 85–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.33813/2224-1213.18.2019.9.

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he subject of research – religious tourism as a promising direction for the development of tourism. The purpose of the article isimproving the management of religious tourism in the modern tourist market. Methodology of work –applying the methods of analysis, synthesis, comparison, synthesis, forecasting, as well as in the use of historical and cultural approaches. The results of the work – presents proposals for solving the problems of religious tourism, taking into account the specifics of this area. Highlight the problematic issues related to the field of tourism and suggested ways to solve them. Conclusions – as a result of the study, it was established that the religious and tourist potential of our country is not used at the proper level, and the creation of conditions for high-quality religious tourism of our compatriots and foreign citizens requires more active government policies and attracting investments in the tourism.
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Book chapters on the topic "Tourism Forecasting Methodology"

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Song, Haiyan, and Stephen F. Witt. "Traditional methodology of tourism demand modelling." In Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting, 15–26. Elsevier, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-08-043673-9.50005-1.

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"Traditional methodology of tourism demand modelling." In Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting, 22–33. Routledge, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780080519418-6.

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Conference papers on the topic "Tourism Forecasting Methodology"

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Đukec, Damira. "FORECASTING TOURISM DEMAND IN CROATIA USING BOX AND JENKINS METHODOLOGY." In Tourism in Southern and Eastern Europe: Creating Innovative Tourism Experiences: The Way to Extend the Tourist Season. University of Rijeka, Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.20867/tosee.05.18.

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Ntaliakouras, Nikolaos, Gerasimos Vonitsanos, Andreas Kanavos, and Elias Dritsas. "An Apache Spark Methodology for Forecasting Tourism Demand in Greece." In 2019 10th International Conference on Information, Intelligence, Systems and Applications (IISA). IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iisa.2019.8900739.

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Jelušić, Adriana, and Karmen Mikulić. "ENHANCING COMPETITIVENESS FOR ECONOMIC AND TOURISM GROWTH: CASE OF CROATIA." In Tourism in Southern and Eastern Europe 2021: ToSEE – Smart, Experience, Excellence & ToFEEL – Feelings, Excitement, Education, Leisure. University of Rijeka, Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.20867/tosee.06.26.

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Purpose – the Tourism-Led Economic Growth Hypothesis (TLGH) is fundamental to the development of the tourism countries. The following research stresses the ever-growing importance of knowledge and creativity– through various disciplines – on national competitiveness and overall economic and tourism development. Emphasis will be given to the particulars of the tourism industry, the achieved level of economic growth, the tourism and economic competitiveness as well as the level of creativity. The study asserts that the nation’s economic and tourism development corresponds to the acquired competitiveness and creativity level. Methodology – the relationship between the variables which indicate economic and tourism development, knowledge, competitiveness and creative economy, will be examined through the comparative study on the case of EU countries (EU28). Multiple linear regression model (MLR) is tested on the case of Croatia (IBM SPSS). Findings – in today’s global crisis, one of the ways to promote economic wealth and growth is supporting service and creative industries. Tourism, as a part of the economic growth model, has a strong positive impact on the creative economy and competitiveness. The optimal development model of tourism economies is global comprehensive approach and it encompasses multidisciplinary relationship with all economic activities. Competitiveness, creativity, economic and tourism growth can be used as variables in forecasting tourism demand and tourism consumption. Contribution – the research’s contribution is reflected in a comprehensive study of the competitiveness and creative economy with a particular emphasis on tourism. The proposed macroeconomic model forms an excellent basis for the conduction of an economic policy and the employment of the appropriate instruments.
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Reports on the topic "Tourism Forecasting Methodology"

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Baluga, Anthony, and Masato Nakane. Maldives Macroeconomic Forecasting:. Asian Development Bank, December 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/wps200431-2.

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This study aims to build an efficient small-scale macroeconomic forecasting tool for Maldives. Due to significant limitations in data availability, empirical economic modeling for the country can be problematic. To address data constraints and circumvent the “curse of dimensionality,” Bayesian vector autoregression estimations are utilized comprising of component-disaggregated domestic sectoral production, price, and tourism variables. Results demonstrate how this methodology is appropriate for economic modeling in Maldives. With the appropriate level of shrinkage, Bayesian vector autoregressions can exploit the information content of the macroeconomic and tourism variables. Augmenting for qualitative assessments, the directional inclination of the forecasts is improved.
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