Academic literature on the topic 'Tourism behaviour'

Purpose This paper aims to examine the components or factors influencing tourists’ destination brand selection behaviour in Indian context with evidence-based management modelling by using the Relative to an Identified Distribution (RIDIT) approach. This evidence-based tourism marketing research has contributed to enhance understanding the tourists’ motivation to support decision in tourism marketing domain. The present study has focused on identifying the most relevant factors in the order of priority that influence destination brand-choice behaviour pertaining to Indian tourism sector. The current research has also tried to arrange the different items relating to tourists preferences for better understanding the insight of potential tourists relating to Indian-tourist destinations. Design/methodology/approach A descriptive, survey research design was chosen to investigate and organize the different components or items in degrees of priority to explain the tourists’ destination brand selection behaviour. In total, 387 empirical tourist samples were collected across India covering both domestic and international tourist segments. An evidence-based management modelling with RIDIT analysis is done to examine the factors, which have influencing role on tourist-destination brand choice behaviour related to Indian tourism market. Findings The outcome of this research paper should enable the tourism marketers, tourism service providers, tourism brand managers and consultants to create better linkages between the prospective tourists’ preferences and the marketing mix of the destination brands by using evidence based management modelling. Originality/value The present research is an original and innovative thought process, trying to evaluate the components or factors influencing tourists’ destination brand selection behaviour pertaining to Indian tourism sector by using the RIDIT approach. Research undertaken so far in tourism marketing area has investigated the different components related to tourism behaviour and destination-brand selection intention of the potential tourists in an unintended and less organized manner. This study can be seen as the first empirical evidence in the domain of tourism marketing where evidence based management modelling with RIDIT approach is done.

The basic principles of scientific management applies to all human behavior, tourism management is a branch of modern management, it's a management for the whole tourism activities and system of tourism management. This paper focus on the study of tourism management enterprise owners' behaviour, through modern tourism system model structure characteristics and analysis of tourists' behaviours, and depth profiling the implementation and strategy analysis of management tourism enterprise CRM, doing further research on tourism management enterprise owners behaviour based on evade unevenness theory. Adapting to modern tourism development and tourism management teaching and research needs, and provide a better theoretical guidance for management of modern tourism entrepreneurs.

The tourism industry has grown rapidly in recent years, and IT technology is also having a big impact on tourists. Tourism services, information generated by tourists and other sources can be used to build models of tourist behavior. These models can improve the travel experience in various ways. The author presents the system for analyzing tourist behavior based on the concept of a digital pattern of life. The system determines the tourist, possible data sources, ways of storing and presenting data, as well as tools for analyzing behavior. The author used artifi cial neural networks to analyze behavior from a dataset of tourist travels made with cars. One scenario of tourist behavior using artifi cial neural networks is presented. The collected results will be used for improving tourist services.

Although rural tourism enterprises have played crucial roles in the prosperity of tourist destinations, environmental contamination due to corporate behaviour is also an important issue to consider. In this study, we introduce corporate community involvement theory to explore the antecedents and contingency effects of corporate green behaviour for tourist destination sustainability from the perspective of tourism corporate social responsibility. Using first-hand survey data collected in Guangdong and Anhui provinces, and matching second-hand data from the statistical yearbook and tourist destination government work reports, we found that corporate community involvement has a positive impact on the green behaviour of rural tourism enterprises. This association is moderated by place identity and the gross tourism receipts of destinations. By doing so, this research extends the scope of tourism environmental governance from ‘the bottom’ (for tourists) to ‘the top’ (for tourism enterprises). Meanwhile, this research provides feasible advice to policymakers by highlighting the coordination value of enterprises’ initiative strategies (e.g., corporate community involvement) and destination contingency.

Background: Increased travel abroad has a significant impact on the incidence and prevalence of Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs). Previous reviews have focused on the knowledge, attitudes and behaviour of tourists and acquisition of STIs. Less is known about the impact on tourism operators in countries visited by tourists. The aim of this review is to ascertain factors influencing sexual behaviour between workers in the tourism industry and tourists; exploring the prevalence of sexual behaviour between the two populations, their perceptions of sexual risk while engaging in sexual activities and the knowledge of tourism operators regarding STIs.Methods: A systematic review was conducted. Database searches were performed in Medline/Ovid, EMBASE, Cochrane library and CINAHL for studies published between 2000 and March 2016. Grey literature searches were completed in the NHS database and Google Scholar between 2000 and December 2013. Papers were independently selected by two researchers. Data were extracted and critically appraised using a pre-designed extraction form and adapted CASP checklist.Results: The search identified 1,602 studies and 16 were included after review of the full text. Studies were conducted in nine countries. Findings suggest that STI knowledge, attitude and practice were fairly good among tourists and tourism workers, but there is a need for pre-travel advice for travellers, especially those travelling to low and middle-income countries. Greater importance was given to tourists than to tourism operators and locals interacting with tourists. Studies suggest that as a group both tourist and tourist workers were likely to engage in sexual activities. Overall, both condom use and STI screening were low, among tourists as well as tourism operators. Furthermore, studies reported links between drug and alcohol use and sexual behaviour and risk taking.Conclusion: Although less research appeared to have been conducted among tourism workers than tourists, it does demonstrate the need for education, training and promotion of travel medicine. STI screening, pre-travel advice, travel history in terms of contracting STIs and safe-sex awareness-raising are needed. More and better sexual health education and relevant tourism policies are needed globally.

AbstractThis study focused on the impact of attitude toward tourism on pro-tourism behaviour. The social exchange theory and theory of reasoned action were used to support this model. This study constructed a model for testing the relationship among welcome tourists behaviour, perceived local economy, personal benefit, attitude toward tourism, and pro-tourism behaviour. Empirical testing was used for observing the effect of the model. The sample comprised 408 people from Hua-hin Prachubkirikhan, who were selected by convenience sampling. The research instrument was a questionnaire that was divided into the following 4 parts: general data, perceived tourism impact (welcome tourists behaviour, perceived local economy, and personal benefit), attitude toward tourism, and pro-tourism behaviour. Statistical analysis methods included frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and structural equation modelling. All the hypotheses were supported, indicating a significant positive effect of attitude toward tourism on pro-tourism behavior.

Rural tourism is an important form of tourism in many countries, including Finland. To understand rural tourists’ behaviour and help tourism companies market their products more efficiently many scholars have segmented rural tourists in several different geographical locations. This study aims to combine segmentation approaches used in earlier studies, namely motivation and benefit segmentation, and segment online rural tourists in Finland. Data is collected in a rural tourism affiliate website and analysed using cluster analysis on tourists’ motivations. Among 727 respondents, four rural tourist segments are found: “Social travellers”, “Wellbeing travellers”, “Home region travellers” and “Family travellers”. The segments differ from each other in motivations, preferred destination attributes, travel behaviour and sociodemographic factors. Understanding these differences will provide rural tourism companies important information to successfully market their products by combining both push and pull motivations in their marketing and product development.

The purpose of this study is to (1) know how much influence the product quality of tourisism against the decision of visiting Tanggo Rajo tourism place in Jambi City, (2) Analyze how much influence the decision against tourists behavior after visiting Tanggo Rajo tourism place in Jambi City. In this study, the factors which are considered to affect the decision of visiting are tourist attractions, transportation, accommodation, supporting facilities and infrastructure. The population of this research is the community that resides in the town of Jambi. Unit sample 100 people representing various respondents among groups of people. Data analysis in this study using multiple linear regression techniques with test tool SPSS.

The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened the risk associated with tourism and induced a paradigm shift in tourist behaviour. The study explores the nexus between COVID-19 induced perceived risk the subjective safety associated with tourism activity. A cross-sectional deductive study was conducted. Data were generated from a respondent-driven snowball sample of 323 potential tourists from all over the world. The key findings indicate perceived physical, psychological and social COVID-19 pandemic induced risk negatively influenced the overall subjective safety associated with tourism activity. Moreover, further analysis indicated heterogeneity in the influence of the perceived risk on specific tourism activity. Tourism practitioners are provided with timely empirical evidence-based insights that contribute to a better understanding of tourists' evolving behaviour.

The tourism industry has been rapidly growing over the last years and IT technologies have had a great affect on tourists as well. Tourist behaviour analysis has been the subject of different research studies in recent years. This paper presents the digital pattern of life concept which simplifies the tourist behaviour models’ construction and usage. The digital pattern of life defines the general concepts of tourist behaviour, connects the tourist and the digital world and allows us to track behaviour changes over time. A literature review of the current state of the research in selected fields is performed for identifying the existing problems. The case studies of behaviour analysis based on classification, clustering and time series events behaviour models are shown. An ontological approach and artificial neural networks are used during behaviour model construction, training and evaluation. The gathered results can be used by smart tourism service developers and business stakeholders.

While the role of culture as an influence on consumer behaviour and product/service choice has long been acknowledged, the current literature in marketing offers an incomplete understanding of how and why culture plays its influential role (Overby, Woodruff and Gardial 2005). Research suggests that values provide the link between culture and consumer behaviour and values have been the focus of much research in the social sciences. In particular, values have received significant attention in cross-cultural research, being used to characterise the similarities within and differences across cultures. Values are central to the marketing discipline as they determine value, i.e. what activities, interests, and material goods consumers identify with, enjoy, acquire, or consume (Grunert and Muller 1996). Both directly and indirectly, values drive consumption behaviour. Typically, values have been assessed and compared through the use of standard measures such as Rokeach�s Value Survey, the List of Values and Schwartz�s Value Survey. Recent literature highlights growing concern over the application of standard measures across cultures and issues of cross-cultural invariance. There is a need for new research into cross-cultural applications of consumer value measures and theoretical models. This thesis critiques the use of Western conceptual paradigms and imposed etics in value research, and, using a Japanese tourism context, seeks a deeper understanding of how culture and values affect tourism consumption and experience. This thesis offers an empirical test of the cross-cultural applicability of a commonly used values scale in consumer research, the List of Values (Kahle 1983). The findings of this phase of the research extend the literature concerning methodological issues in values research and highlight the limitiations of the LOV as a cross-cultural measure of values. Based on these findings the thesis adopts an alternative, qualitative methodology to investigate the relationship between Japanese culture, values and tourism behaviour in New Zealand. The findings of the second phase of the research contribute to a recent call in the literature for more qualitative research in tourism, and allow the identification and understanding of the key values relevant to Japanese tourism behaviour. The results of Means-End interviews with Japanese visitors reveal the important cultural assumptions informing values and shaping tourism decisions and behaviours for two key groups of Japanese tourists. The theoretical framework presented in this thesis promotes our understanding of the relationship between cultural beliefs, values, and consumer behaviour. The results of the primary research highlight the importance of cultural and physical history, world-view, self-concept, thought patterns and language in the formation and interpretation of values. The thesis presents a holistic attempt at understanding Japanese culture, values and travel behaviour by examining how these concepts cohere in a logical framework. The thesis argues that, given the inherently cultural nature of values, their interpretation within the context of cultural beliefs is highly important in understanding variability in consumer behaviour across cultures.

Online User Experiences (UXs) act as persuasive technology that can nudge users toward making behaviour change. This makes online UX integral to marketing. The tourism industry relies on UX to attract potential customers. Made up of 80% SMEs, the competition is high, hence the SMEs must deliver robust UXs that capture, persuade and convert users into customers. Tourism, despite being an early adopter of technology lags behind in terms of delivering UXs that meet users’ expectations. Furthermore, scholarly works exploring online UX as a persuasive technology within the tourism SMEs, specifically the day-attraction SMEs segment, are lacking. Using the theoretical framework of the Persuasive Systems Design (PSD) model, this research evaluates day attraction SMEs’ online UXs as persuasive technology. The research uses three mixed-methods to present the service providers’ and the users’ perspectives. The first method is a website content analysis that reviews the persuasive architecture of 102-day attraction websites. The second method uses questionnaires to get insights on tourists’ online usage, motivations, opinions and perceptions of online UX delivered by a single day attraction SME (case study). The third method, an eye tracking experiment is an extension to the questionnaires. The outcomes show that the SMEs’ incorporate persuasive UX elements corresponding to usability, visual aesthetics and credibility, but fail at incorporating strategies to support dialogue. The tourists’ suggest that usability, visual aesthetics and credibility UX elements affect their decision to buy, however, certain strategies that enhance dialogue, such as ability to win rewards, are likely to nudge them toward behaviour change. Furthermore, there appears to be a link between visual aesthetics and perceived usability, and their combined effect on persuasiveness. A final outcome establishes tourist’s website reading patterns, emphasising the placement of call-to-actions within an F-shape region. This research contributes through a customised version of the PSD model applicable for tourism SMEs, delivers empirical evidence suggesting additions to the model and, adds to the overall body of knowledge on tourism online UXs and persuasive technology.

Tourism plays an important role in today’s world. More and more people leave all the issues and problems behind, and just travel to relax and experience something unique in their lives. The main research question of this paper has been created:

“Did consumer behaviour affect what services tourism companies provided in Poland between 1990 and 2005?”

The objective of this paper is to fill the lack of knowledge about tourism offerings in Poland. The purpose of this study is to investigate travellers’ preferences for facilities and services in analysed country between 1900 and 2005. This study also investigates if consumer behaviour affects what services tourism companies will provide.

A pesar de que hi ha més de trenta anys d'investigació sobre els temps d'espera, poc es coneix sobre aquells que estan disposats a pagar més per evitar les esperes i sobre aquells que no ho estan, en el context dels parcs temàtics. La present tesi doctoral examina els factors interns i externs que influeixen en la decisió de compra del passi exprés en un entorn real. Variables com el dia de visita al parc, el mètode a través del qual van conèixer aquest tipus de passi, el nombre de persones del grup, la cultura, l'actitud cap al passi exprés, l'actitud cap als temps d'espera, l'experiència prèvia comprant aquests passis, les expectatives sobre l'espera, les percepcions sobre l'espera i la motivació de la visita al parc apareixen com a variables significatives que permeten caracteritzar els dos grups: els que estan disposats a adquirir el passi i els que no. D'aquesta manera, no tots els consumidors interpreten de la mateixa manera els temps d'espera i els sistemes per evitar-los, i per tant han de ser tractats diferent. Entendre com els consumidors actuen permet a les empreses repensar els sistemes de prioritat i les estratègies de màrqueting per gestionar l'espera.
A pesar de más de treinta años de investigación sobre los tiempos de espera, poco se conoce sobre aquellos que están dispuestos a pagar extra para evitar las esperas y sobre aquellos que no lo están, en el contexto de los parques temáticos. La presente tesis examina los factores internos y externos que influyen en la decisión de compra del pase exprés en un entorno real. Variables como el día de visita al parque, el método a través del cual conocieron el pase exprés, el número de personas en el grupo, la cultura, la actitud hacia el pase exprés, la actitud hacia los tiempos de espera, la experiencia previa comprando pases exprés, las expectativas sobre la espera, las percepciones sobre la espera y la motivación de visita al parque aparecen como variables significativas que permiten caracterizar a ambos grupos. De esta manera, no todos los consumidores interpretan de la misma manera los tiempos de espera y los sistemas para evitarlas, y por tanto deben ser abordados de diferente manera. El entender cómo los consumidores actúan permite a las empresas repensar los sistemas prioritarios y las estrategias de marketing para gestionar la espera.
In spite of more than thirty years of research on waiting, little is known about those who are willing to pay extra to avoid waits and those who don’t in a theme park context. This thesis examines factors that influence on the purchase decision of an express pass in a natural setting. The logit model with both internal and external factors shows a better explanatory capacity to classify individuals over other models. Variables such as visit day, how customers find out about the express pass, number of people in the party, culture, attitude toward the express pass, attitude toward waiting times, prior experiences purchasing an express pass, prior experience visiting theme parks, expectation of average waiting time, perception of waits shorter than expected and visit motivation (thrill and leisure) appear as significant variables that allow to characterize both groups. In this manner, not all consumers interpret waiting times and the systems to avoid them in the same way and, consequently, they should be addressed in different ways. Understanding how customers act allow companies to rethink priority systems and marketing strategies to manage waits.

Tourism mitigation is a contentious issue that requires a multifaceted approach to effectively achieve. The need to reduce personal traveling expenditure in order to mitigate the greenhouse gas emissions caused by tourism has not suitably been infiltrated within the public consciousness. Furthermore, those travellers who have been exposed to the reality that greenhouse gas emissions from tourism has often disregard that information and continue with their behaviour regardless.  This thesis aimed to investigate the reasons why those who travel the most in society, the hypermobile, choses to travel as much as they do and how this demand for travel could be curbed. It focused on three forms of tourism mitigation; government regulations, increases to the price of air travel and social marketing. The study was conducted with 10 individuals who self-identify as being highly mobile (more than 3 international return trips per year). The results showed that those who no single method of tourism mitigation would be effective in the goal of limiting highly mobile behavioural tendencies. A mixture of all three methods would be required in reaching the goal of lowering the levels of distance air travel consumption.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.