Academic literature on the topic 'Thunderstorms Australia'

The impact of thunderstorms on the wildfire situation in Australia in 2017–2020 was investigated using data from the ISS LIS and MODIS space-based observations. To determine lightning-caused wildfires, a Geographic Information System (GIS) method was carried out, which consisted of a combined investigation of the spatial and temporal distributions of strikes and ignition hotspots. The seasonal variability of thunderstorms and wildfire activity was analyzed. It was established that the maximum seasonal distribution of thunderstorm activity does not coincide with wildfire activity. The interannual changes in strikes were recorded, but this was not revealed for the major vegetation types. Of 120,829 flashes, recorded by the ISS LIS sensor, only 23 flashes could be characterized as lightning-caused wildfire events, i.e., the frequency of lightning ignition was equal to 0.00023 fires/stroke. The lightning ignitions usually took place along the boundary of a thunderstorm, in semiarid areas covered by open scrublands. During the dry Australian period (April–September), very few lightning events were detected by the ISS LIS sensor, while fire activity was quite high. Additionally, it was concluded that the impact of thunderstorms on the fire situation is too small to explain the numerous wildfires during the wet period.

Abstract The Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite has previously been used to build climatologies of mean lightning flash rate across the global tropics and subtropics. This new work explores climatologies of thunderstorm occurrence as seen by LIS and the conditional mean flash rates when thunderstorms do occur. The region where thunderstorms are seen most often by LIS extends slightly farther east in central Africa than the corresponding region with the highest total mean annual flash rates. Presumably this reflects a difference between more frequent thunderstorm initiation in the east and upscale growth as storms move westward. There are some differences between locations with the greatest total lightning flash counts and those where thunderstorms occur most often. The greatest conditional mean flash rates—considering only those TRMM orbits that do have lightning in a given grid box—are found in subtropical regions. The highest values are in Argentina, with the central United States, Pakistan, eastern China, and the east coast of Australia also having particularly high values.

Abstract Epidemic asthma events represent a significant risk to emergency services as well as the wider community. In southeastern Australia, these events occur in conjunction with relatively high amounts of grass pollen during the late spring and early summer, which may become concentrated in populated areas through atmospheric convergence caused by a number of physical mechanisms including thunderstorm outflow. Thunderstorm forecasts are therefore important for identifying epidemic asthma risk factors. However, the representation of thunderstorm environments using regional numerical weather prediction models, which are a key aspect of the construction of these forecasts, have not yet been systematically evaluated in the context of epidemic asthma events. Here, we evaluate diagnostics of thunderstorm environments from historical simulations of weather conditions in the vicinity of Melbourne, Australia, in relation to the identification of epidemic asthma cases based on hospital data from a set of controls. Skillful identification of epidemic asthma cases is achieved using a thunderstorm diagnostic that describes near-surface water vapor mixing ratio. This diagnostic is then used to gain insights on the variability of meteorological environments related to epidemic asthma in this region, including diurnal variations, long-term trends, and the relationship with large-scale climate drivers. Results suggest that there has been a long-term increase in days with high water vapor mixing ratio during the grass pollen season, with large-scale climate drivers having a limited influence on these conditions. Significance Statement We investigate the atmospheric conditions associated with epidemic thunderstorm asthma events in Melbourne, Australia, using historical model simulations of the weather. Conditions appear to be associated with high atmospheric moisture content, which relates to environments favorable for severe thunderstorms, but also potentially pollen rupturing as suggested by previous studies. These conditions are shown to be just as important as the concentration of grass pollen for a set of epidemic thunderstorm asthma events in this region. This means that weather model simulations of thunderstorm conditions can be incorporated into the forecasting process for epidemic asthma in Melbourne, Australia. We also investigate long-term variability in atmospheric conditions associated with severe thunderstorms, including relationships with the large-scale climate and long-term trends.

Abstract The influence of a warming climate on the occurrence of severe thunderstorms over Australia is, as yet, poorly understood. Based on methods used in the development of a climatology of observed severe thunderstorm environments over the continent, two climate models [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark, version 3.6 (CSIRO Mk3.6) and the Cubic-Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM)] have been used to produce simulated climatologies of ingredients and environments favorable to severe thunderstorms for the late twentieth century (1980–2000). A novel evaluation of these model climatologies against data from both the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and reports of severe thunderstorms from observers is used to analyze the capability of the models to represent convective environments in the current climate. This evaluation examines the representation of thunderstorm-favorable environments in terms of their frequency, seasonal cycle, and spatial distribution, while presenting a framework for future evaluations of climate model convective parameters. Both models showed the capability to explain at least 75% of the spatial variance in both vertical wind shear and convective available potential energy (CAPE). CSIRO Mk3.6 struggled to either represent the diurnal cycle over a large portion of the continent or resolve the annual cycle, while in contrast CCAM showed a tendency to underestimate CAPE and 0–6-km bulk magnitude vertical wind shear (S06). While spatial resolution likely contributes to rendering of features such as coastal moisture and significant topography, the distribution of severe thunderstorm environments is found to have greater sensitivity to model biases. This highlights the need for a consistent approach to evaluating convective parameters and severe thunderstorm environments in present-day climate: an example of which is presented here.

Abstract. During the SCOUT-O3/ACTIVE field phase in November–December 2005 airborne in situ measurements were performed inside and in the vicinity of thunderstorms over northern Australia with several research aircraft (German Falcon, Russian M55 Geophysica, and British Dornier-228). Here a case study from 19 November is presented in large detail on the basis of airborne trace gas measurements (NO, NOy, CO, O3) and stroke measurements from the German LIghtning Location NETwork (LINET), set up in the vicinity of Darwin during the field campaign. The anvil outflow from three different types of thunderstorms was probed by the Falcon aircraft: 1) a continental thunderstorm developing in a tropical airmass near Darwin, 2) a mesoscale convective system (MCS) developing within the tropical maritime continent (Tiwi Islands) known as Hector, and 3) a continental thunderstorm developing in a subtropical airmass ~200 km south of Darwin. For the first time detailed measurements of NO were performed in the Hector outflow. The highest NO mixing ratios were observed in Hector with peaks up to 7 nmol mol−1 in the main anvil outflow at ~11.5–12.5 km altitude. The mean NOx (=NO+NO2) mixing ratios during these penetrations (~100 km width) varied between 2.2 and 2.5 nmol mol−1. The NOx contribution from the boundary layer (BL), transported upward with the convection, to total anvil-NOx was found to be minor (<10%). On the basis of Falcon measurements, the mass flux of lightning-produced NOx (LNOx) in the well-developed Hector system was estimated to 0.6–0.7 kg(N) s−1. The highest average stroke rate of the probed thunderstorms was observed in the Hector system with 0.2 strokes s−1 (here only strokes with peak currents ≥10 kA contributing to LNOx were considered). The LNOx mass flux and the stroke rate were combined to estimate the LNOx production rate in the different thunderstorm types. For a better comparison with other studies, LINET strokes were scaled with Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) flashes. The LNOx production rate per LIS flash was estimated to 4.1–4.8 kg(N) for the well-developed Hector system, and to 5.4 and 1.7 kg(N) for the continental thunderstorms developing in subtropical and tropical airmasses, respectively. If we assume, that these different types of thunderstorms are typical thunderstorms globally (LIS flash rate ~44 s−1), the annual global LNOx production rate based on Hector would be ~5.7–6.6 Tg(N) a−1 and based on the continental thunderstorms developing in subtropical and tropical airmasses ~7.6 and ~2.4 Tg(N) a−1, respectively. The latter thunderstorm type produced much less LNOx per flash compared to the subtropical and Hector thunderstorms, which may be caused by the shorter mean flash component length observed in this storm. It is suggested that the vertical wind shear influences the horizontal extension of the charged layers, which seems to play an important role for the flash lengths that may originate. In addition, the horizontal dimension of the anvil outflow and the cell organisation within the thunderstorm system are probably important parameters influencing flash length and hence LNOx production per flash.

Abstract. During the SCOUT-O3/ACTIVE field phase in November–December 2005, airborne in situ measurements were performed inside and in the vicinity of thunderstorms over northern Australia with several research aircraft (German Falcon, Russian M55 Geophysica, and British Dornier-228. Here a case study from 19 November is presented in detail on the basis of airborne trace gas measurements (NO, NOy, CO, O3) and stroke measurements from the German LIghtning Location NETwork (LINET), set up in the vicinity of Darwin during the field campaign. The anvil outflow from three different types of thunderstorms was probed by the Falcon aircraft: (1) a continental thunderstorm developing in a tropical airmass near Darwin, (2) a mesoscale convective system (MCS), known as Hector, developing within the tropical maritime continent (Tiwi Islands), and (3) a continental thunderstorm developing in a subtropical airmass ~200 km south of Darwin. For the first time detailed measurements of NO were performed in the Hector outflow. The highest NO mixing ratios were observed in Hector with peaks up to 7 nmol mol−1 in the main anvil outflow at ~11.5–12.5 km altitude. The mean NOx (=NO+NO2) mixing ratios during these penetrations (~100 km width) varied between 2.2 and 2.5 nmol mol−1. The NOx contribution from the boundary layer (BL), transported upward with the convection, to total anvil-NOx was found to be minor (<10%). On the basis of Falcon measurements, the mass flux of lightning-produced NOx (LNOx) in the well-developed Hector system was estimated to 0.6–0.7 kg(N) s−1. The highest average stroke rate of the probed thunderstorms was observed in the Hector system with 0.2 strokes s−1 (here only strokes with peak currents ≥10 kA contributing to LNOx were considered). The LNOx mass flux and the stroke rate were combined to estimate the LNOx production rate in the different thunderstorm types. For a better comparison with other studies, LINET strokes were scaled with Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) flashes. The LNOx production rate per LIS flash was estimated to 4.1–4.8 kg(N) for the well-developed Hector system, and to 5.4 and 1.7 kg(N) for the continental thunderstorms developing in subtropical and tropical airmasses, respectively. If we assume, that these different types of thunderstorms are typical thunderstorms globally (LIS flash rate ~44 s−1), the annual global LNOx production rate based on Hector would be ~5.7–6.6 Tg(N) a−1 and based on the continental thunderstorms developing in subtropical and tropical airmasses ~7.6 and ~2.4 Tg(N) a−1, respectively. The latter thunderstorm type produced much less LNOx per flash compared to the subtropical and Hector thunderstorms, which may be caused by the shorter mean flash component length observed in this storm. It is suggested that the vertical wind shear influences the horizontal extension of the charged layers, which seems to play an important role for the flash lengths that may originate. In addition, the horizontal dimension of the anvil outflow and the cell organisation within the thunderstorm system are probably important parameters influencing flash length and hence LNOx production per flash.

Epidemic thunderstorm asthma (ETA) is an emerging public health threat in Australia, highlighted by the 2016 event in Melbourne, Victoria, that overwhelmed health services and caused loss of life. However, there is limited understanding of the regional variations in risk. We evaluated the public health risk of ETA in the nearby state of Tasmania by quantifying the frequency of potential ETA episodes and applying a standardized natural disaster risk assessment framework. Using a case–control approach, we analyzed emergency presentations in Tasmania’s public hospitals from 2002 to 2017. Cases were defined as days when asthma presentations exceeded four standard deviations from the mean, and controls as days when asthma presentations were less than one standard deviation from the mean. Four controls were randomly selected for each case. Independently, a meteorologist identified the dates of potential high-risk thunderstorm events. No case days coincided with thunderstorms during the study period. ETA was assessed as a very low risk to the Tasmanian population, with these findings informing risk prioritization and resource allocation. This approach may be scaled and applied in other settings to determine local ETA risk. Furthermore, the identification of hazards using this method allows for critical analysis of existing public health systems.

On 16 December 2015 a severe thunderstorm and associated tornado affected Sydney causing widespread damage and insured losses of $206 million. Severe impacts occurred in Kurnell, requiring repairs to Sydney's desalination plant which supplies up to 15% of Sydney water during drought, with repairs only completed at the end of 2018. Climatologically, this storm was unusual as it occurred during the morning and had developed over the ocean, rather than developing inland during the afternoon as is the case for many severe storms impacting the Sydney region. Simulations of the Kurnell storm were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on a double nested domain using the Morrison microphysics scheme and the NSSL 2-moment 4-ice microphysics scheme. Both simulations produced severe storms that followed paths similar to the observed storm. However, the storm produced under the Morrison scheme did not have the same morphology as the observed storm. Meanwhile, the storm simulated with the NSSL scheme displayed cyclical low- and mid-level mesocyclone development, which was observed in the Kurnell storm, highlighting that the atmosphere supported the development of severe rotating thunderstorms with the potential for tornadogenesis. The NSSL storm also produced severe hail and surface winds, similar to observations. The ability of WRF to simulate general convective characteristics and a storm similar to that observed displays the applicability of this model to study the causes of severe high-impact Australian thunderstorms. References J. T. Allen and E. R. Allen. A review of severe thunderstorms in Australia. Atmos. Res., 178:347–366, 2016. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.03.011. Bureau of Meteorology. Severe Storms Archive, 2020. URL http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/stormarchive/. D. T. Dawson II, M. Xue, J. A. Milbrandt, and M. K. Yau. Comparison of evaporation and cold pool development between single-moment and multimoment bulk microphysics schemes in idealized simulations of tornadic thunderstorms. Month. Wea. Rev., 138:1152–1171, 2010. doi:10.1175/2009MWR2956.1. H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, S. Hirahara, A. Horanyi, J. Munoz-Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, D. Schepers, et al. The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146:1999–2049, 2020. doi:10.1002/qj.3803. Insurance Council of Australia. Victorian bushfire losses push summer catastrophe bill past $550m, 2016. E. R. Mansell, C. L. Ziegler, and E. C. Bruning. Simulated electrification of a small thunderstorm with two-moment bulk microphysics. J. Atmos. Sci., 67:171–194, 2010. doi:10.1175/2009JAS2965.1. R. C. Miller. Notes on analysis and severe-storm forecasting procedures of the Air Force Global Weather Central, volume 200. Air Weather Service, 1972. URL https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/AD0744042. H. Morrison, J. A. Curry, and V. I. Khvorostyanov. A new double-moment microphysics parameterization for application in cloud and climate models. Part I: Description. J. Atmos. Sci., 62:1665–1677, 2005. doi:10.1175/JAS3446.1. H. Morrison, G. Thompson, and V. Tatarskii. Impact of cloud microphysics on the development of trailing stratiform precipitation in a simulated squall line: Comparison of one- and two-moment schemes. Month. Wea. Rev., 137:991–1007, 2009. doi:10.1175/2008MWR2556.1. J. G. Powers, J. B. Klemp, W. C. Skamarock, C. A. Davis, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, J. L. Coen, D. J. Gochis, R. Ahmadov, S. E. Peckham, et al. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Overview, system efforts, and future directions. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc., 98:1717–1737, 2017. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00308.1. H. Richter, A. Protat, J. Taylor, and J. Soderholm. Doppler radar and storm environment observations of a maritime tornadic supercell in Sydney, Australia. In Preprints, 28th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Portland OR, Amer. Meteor. Soc. P, 2016. W. C. Skamarock, J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, Z. Liu, J. Berner, W. Wang, J. G. Powers, M. G. Duda, D. Barker, and X.-Y. Huang. A description of the advanced research WRF Model version 4. Technical report, 2019. Storm Prediction Center. The Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF Scale), 2014. URL https://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/. R. A. Warren, H. A. Ramsay, S. T. Siems, M. J. Manton, J. R. Peter, A. Protat, and A. Pillalamarri. Radar-based climatology of damaging hailstorms in Brisbane and Sydney, Australia. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146:505–530, 2020. doi:10.1002/qj.3693.

BACKGROUNDA study was undertaken to assess the importance of thunderstorms as a cause of epidemics of asthma exacerbations and to investigate the underlying mechanism.METHODSA case control study was performed in six towns in south eastern Australia. Epidemic case days (n = 48) and a random sample of control days (n = 191) were identified by reference to the difference between the observed and expected number of emergency department attendances for asthma. The occurrence of thunderstorms, their associated outflows and cold fronts were ascertained, blind to case status, for each of these days. In addition, the relation of hourly pollen counts to automatic weather station data was examined in detail for the period around one severe epidemic of asthma exacerbations. The main outcome measure was the number of epidemics of asthma exacerbations.RESULTSThunderstorm outflows were detected on 33% of epidemic days and only 3% of control days (odds ratio 15.0, 95% confidence interval 6.0 to 37.6). The association was strongest in late spring and summer. Detailed examination of one severe epidemic showed that its onset coincided with the arrival of the thunderstorm outflow and a 4–12 fold increase in the ambient concentration of grass pollen grains.CONCLUSIONSThese findings are consistent with the hypothesis that some epidemics of exacerbations of asthma are caused by high concentrations of allergenic particles produced by an outflow of colder air, associated with the downdraught from a thunderstorm, sweeping up pollen grains and particles and then concentrating them in a shallow band of air at ground level. This is a common cause of exacerbations of asthma during the pollen season.

AbstractFrom the 1851 Exhibition Scholarship Committee to Pawsey on 1 October 1931:Pawsey started out in research in the midst of excitement over the possibilities of radio communications and the iteratively developing physical understanding of the ionosphere and of the equipment that might be used to investigate it. During 1926–28 he completed his BSc at the University of Melbourne, Victoria. In 1929 he began a Master’s Degree, which was at that time a research-only degree, under the direction of Professor T.H. Laby. He was supported by receiving the M.J. Bartlett Research Scholarship. Presumably this, along with his work as a tutor in Physics at Queens College, provided him with a small, but independent, income. He embarked on a study of “atmospherics”—electrical disturbances in the atmosphere that Appleton, at King’s College, London, and others had linked in part with thunderstorm activity—and their impact on radio broadcasting. From January 1930 to August 1931, he carried out observations using a cathode ray direction finder, working with George H. Munro and Lenard Huxley as part of the Australian Radio Research Board (RRB). Pawsey wrote in 1933: “We were able to give strong evidence that all atmospherics originate in lightning flashes, and made measurements of intensity enabling the distance of the thunderstorms to be roughly determined.” (Ratcliffe & Pawsey, 1933)

Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds are difficult to predict and can produce extreme and unexpected wildfire behavior that can be hazardous to fire crews. Many forecasters modify conventional thunderstorm diagnostics to predict pyroCb potential, by adding temperature and moisture increments to represent smoke plume thermodynamics near the expected plume condensation level. An alternative approach is to anticipate the minimum firepower required to generate pyroCb for a given atmospheric environment.This concept, termed the pyroCb firepower threshold (PFT), requires only atmospheric information, removing the need for subjective estimates of the fire contribution. A simple approach to calculating PFT was presented by Tory and Kepert (2021) that incorporates only basic plume-rise physics, and yields an analytic solution for the minimum heat flux required to enter the base of the plume for pyroCb to form. This version takes into consideration the magnitude of any inversion or stable layer the smoke plume must penetrate, the height the smoke plume must rise before sufficiently buoyant cumulus clouds form in the smoke plume, and it incorporates the impact of wind on plume rise via the Briggs plume-rise model. This PFT also offers important insight into plume behavior and pyroCb formation. Many assumptions are made to close the equations and to maximise simplicity. Two of these assumptions are questioned in this paper following the investigation of two deep, moist pyro-convection cases that occurred during ‘Black Summer’ (southern Australia, September 2019—March 2020). The first assumption, consistent with many thunderstorm diagnostics, is that the moist (cloudy) plume is non-entraining, and the second assumption is that the plume is positively buoyant when it saturates and remains buoyant until it rises beyond the -20 ℃ level of the atmosphere. The first assumption underpredicts the fire-power required and the second assumption can overpredict the necessary firepower, since a vigorous plume may have sufficient kinetic energy to penetrate stable layers or capping inversions. Procedures are introduced to address these limitations.