Academic literature on the topic 'Thought dynamics'

A Hebbian model for speech generation opens a number of paths. A cross-linguistic scheme of functional relationships (inspired by Aristotle) dispenses with distraction by the “parts of speech” distinctions, while bridging the gap between “content” and “structure” words. A gradient model identifies emotional and rational dynamics and shows speech generation as a process where a speaker's dissatisfaction gets minimized.

Humans spend much of their lives engaging with their internal train of thoughts. Traditionally, research focused on whether or not these thoughts are related to ongoing tasks, and has identified reliable and distinct behavioral and neural correlates of task-unrelated and task-related thought. A recent theoretical framework highlighted a different aspect of thinking—how it dynamically moves between topics. However, the neural correlates of such thought dynamics are unknown. The current study aimed to determine the electrophysiological signatures of these dynamics by recording electroencephalogram (EEG) while participants performed an attention task and periodically answered thought-sampling questions about whether their thoughts were 1) task-unrelated, 2) freely moving, 3) deliberately constrained, and 4) automatically constrained. We examined three EEG measures across different time windows as a function of each thought type: stimulus-evoked P3 event-related potentials and non–stimulus-evoked alpha power and variability. Parietal P3 was larger for task-related relative to task-unrelated thoughts, whereas frontal P3 was increased for deliberately constrained compared with unconstrained thoughts. Frontal electrodes showed enhanced alpha power for freely moving thoughts relative to non-freely moving thoughts. Alpha-power variability was increased for task-unrelated, freely moving, and unconstrained thoughts. Our findings indicate distinct electrophysiological patterns associated with task-unrelated and dynamic thoughts, suggesting these neural measures capture the heterogeneity of our ongoing thoughts.

Abstract In this introduction we approach egalitarianism as an upsetting force that in various ways has shaped much of modern, especially Western, human history. We outline philosophical trajectories from the Enlightenment onward; consider the historical realization of an agency of ‘the people’ for the articulation of state, society, and politics; and highlight some issues that arise when the claims to freedom and equality clash against established institutions and values. Stressing the dynamic intertwining of the egalitarian with the hierarchical, we portray egalitarian life forms as modes of relationality that negate, subvert, or take advantage of open potentials in existing systems. Egalitarian life strives toward reconfiguring social orders through rupturing moments of effervescence and liminality while attempting to redefine central categories of life.

AbstractIn this article, we address the problem of predication, or the problem of connecting conceptual predicates to the sets of properties and attributes that correspond to these predicates. We take as our starting point Mark Wilson’s work, especially “Predicate meets Property,” and add to it a metaphysics of problems that one finds in the work of Gilles Deleuze. This enables us to understand the relationship between a predicate and the set of properties in terms of the relationship between a solution to a problem. The advantage of this approach is that it helps to illuminate the key issues involved in contemporary work on human reasoning. We sketch some of these advantages by looking to recent work on literacy and how literacy affects the capacity to engage in formal reasoning.

Cette thèse porte sur la pensée juridique des comparatistes euro-américains. Elle analyse les travaux d’un nombre important de comparatistes, qui ont eu une place significative au sein de la discipline en Europe et aux Etats-Unis entre les années 1860 et le début des années 2000. En examinant les représentations du monde non-occidental, elle met en avant les tensions entre l’inclusion et l’exclusion des spécificités non-occidentales, tout en insistant sur la nécessité de développer une pratique critique de résistance. En s’inspirant des théories postcoloniales, ce travail aborde les questions suivantes: comment le savoir sur les sociétés non-occidentales est-il construit dans la pensée juridique des comparatistes euro-américains ? Quelles sont les préconceptions qui facilitent la production de ce savoir ? Quel est le fondement théorique qui anime ces constructions et quelles sont leurs implications politiques ? Dans quelle mesure la pensée juridique comparative alimente-t-elle les attitudes de domination ou bien les remet-elle en question ? De quelle manière les réponses à ces questions sont-elles reproduites ou modifiées d’une époque à l’autre, d’un auteur à l’autre ?
This dissertation focuses on Euro-American comparative legal thought. It analyses the works of an important number of comparatists operating in Europe and in the United States, roughly from the 1860s to the early 2000s. Examining their representations of non-Western societies, it puts emphasis on the tensions between inclusion and exclusion of particularism and it argues in favor of a critical praxis of particularism. Inspired from postcolonial theories, it addresses the following questions: how are non-Western societies constructed in Euro-American comparative legal thought? What are the preconceptions that make the production of such knowledge possible? What is the theoretical framework that animates these constructions and what are their political implications? What elements internal to comparative legal knowledge fuel attitudes of domination or/and challenge them? How do they change and how are they reproduced from one epoch to another, from one author to another?

Les pensées humaines changent constamment : on regarde, on se souvient, on prévoit... Mais comment les gens accèdent-ils à cette succession de leur propres pensées ? Cette thèse a étudié l’introspection de la dynamique des pensées en capitalisant sur le phénomène saillant et surprenant de la rêverie éveillée (Chapitre 1). Les rêveries sont ces pensées spontanées à propos de nos préoccupations personnelles. Je décris d’abord comment des fluctuations lentes permettent de prédire ces épisodes de rêverie (Ch. 2, 3). Mais ces dynamiques pourraient aussi déterminer le contenu et l’introspection des pensées. En effet, les patients avec des troubles de l’attention (TDAH) rapportent plus de pensées “vides” : ce qui pourrait venir de troubles de la dynamique et/ou de l’introspection de leurs pensées (Ch. 4). Par ailleurs, deux expériences et une étude sur smartphone suggèrent que le langage intérieur facilite la conscience de la rêverie (Ch. 5). Le langage contribue aux capacités de contrôle : les pensées verbales pourraient donc être plus stables et plus vives. Finalement, je suggère que la détection des pensées n’est pas un accès direct à des éléments bien définis. Il s’agirait plutôt d’un mécanisme décisionnel ajustable, qui s’applique à des variables internes continues et dynamiques, comme dans la perception où une décision s’applique à des variables externes (Ch. 6). En somme, ces études jettent une lumière nouvelle sur l’introspection humaine et retrouvent des intuitions anciennes (Ch. 7). En effet, nos données appuient une proposition philosophique faite il y a 125 ans par William James, un des pères fondateurs de la psychologie scientifique : nos pensées sont un flux continu, et détecter la rêverie dépend aussi des dynamiques de ce flux
Humans’ conscious experience is always changing: now seeing, now remembering, now planning. Yet, how people notice the unfolding of their own thoughts remains unclear. The present thesis studied the dynamics and introspective monitoring of thoughts, by capitalizing on the salient and often unnoticed phenomenon of mind-wandering (Chapter 1). Mind-wandering is the rise of thoughts about personal concerns. Against the idea that this rise is unpredictable, I first describe the characteristics of slow rhythms that predict mind-wandering occurrences during goal-directed tasks (Ch. 2, 3). Interestingly, these dynamics may determine thought content and introspection. Indeed, patients with Attention deficits (ADHD), who would likely experience alterations in both the dynamics and introspection of mind-wandering, report more “empty thoughts” (Ch. 4). Also, two experiments and a study using smartphones suggest that inner speech facilitates awareness of mind-wandering (Ch. 5). Inner speech contributes to monitoring capacities, thus verbal thoughts could be better sustained in time, increasing their vividness. Finally, I suggest that the detection of inner thoughts is not a direct access to clear-cut elements, but rather an adjustable decision mechanism applied to internal continuous and dynamic variables, similar to what happens in perception (Ch. 6). In sum, these studies shed a new light on human’s introspection and confirm old insights (Ch. 7). Indeed, they provide empirical support to a philosophical claim made 125 years ago by William James, one of the fathers of scientific psychology: we experience a continuous stream of thought, and detecting mind-wandering may depend on these dynamics

PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO
CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO
O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a noção fregeana de pensamento e discutir o problema da dinâmica cognitiva. Para tal, serão seguidos os seguintes passos. Inicialmente, faremos uma análise da noção de pensamento tal como elaborada por Gottlob Frege. A teoria fregeana será contrastada com sua principal teoria alternativa, a saber, a explicação de Bertrand Russell dos pensamentos ou proposições. Em seguida, será discutido o problema da dinâmica cognitiva, a questão que diz respeito à preservação de crenças e conhecimento por um indivíduo diante das mudanças de contexto. Entende-se ser este um problema com o qual qualquer teoria do pensamento deve lidar. Nosso objetivo é avaliar as soluções para o problema desenvolvidas tanto pelos fregeanos quanto pelos neo-fregeanos, mostrando que elas têm méritos, mas também fraquezas. Questionar-se-á também a viabilidade das propostas de solução avaliadas e será apontada qual delas parece ser a mais plausível. Por fim, discutimos um tipo específico de pensamento que também concerne à questão da dinâmica cognitiva: tratam-se dos pensamentos na primeira pessoa, ou pensamentos de se, ou seja, pensamentos que têm como seu objeto o sujeito referido pelo pronome da primeira pessoa eu . Eles são um caso especial de pensamentos para os quais a questão da dinâmica cognitiva também vale, embora apresentem atributos típicos. Um desses atributos é a imunidade ao erro por má-identificação, já discutida na obra de Gareth Evans. Outras características dos pensamentos na primeira pessoa também serão discutidas, buscando-se apontar para aquela que parece ser a melhor forma de explicar sua natureza e a dinâmica cognitiva que eles envolvem.
The aim of this essay is to analyze the fregean notion of thought and discuss the problem of cognitive dynamics. To this end, I shall take the following steps. To begin with, I analyze the very notion of thought as put forward by Gottlob Frege. Frege s theory is to be contrasted with its main alternative, that is, Russell s account of thoughts or propositions. I proceed, then, to discuss the issue of cognitive dynamics, which is the issue of how it is that the subject is able to maintain his beliefs through context changes. This is, I take it, a difficulty that any theory of thought has to face. My aim is to assess the solutions devised both by the Fregeans and the Neo-Fregeans, showing that they have merits as well as weaknesses. I also question the viability of the would-be solutions and tell which seems the soundest. Finally, I discuss a specific type of thought the issue of cognitive dynamics concerns too: the so-called I-thoughts, or de se thoughts, that is, thoughts that have as their object the very subject referred to by the first person pronoun I . They are a special case of thoughts for which the issue of cognitive dynamics holds too, although they present their own characteristic features. One of these features is the immunity to error through misidentification, already discussed in the work of Gareth Evans. Other characteristics of the I-thoughts will also be discussed, with a view to figure out what seems to be the best way to account for their nature and the cognitive dynamics they involve.

PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO
COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR
PROGRAMA DE SUPORTE À PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO DE INSTS. DE ENSINO
COMITÊ FRANCÊS DE AVALIAÇÃO DA COOPERAÇÃO UNIVERSITÁRIA COM O BRASIL
O objetivo global deste trabalho é mostrar que precisamos explicar a dinâmica de pensamentos de se ou pensamentos em primeira pessoa (ou ainda, pensamentos normalmente expressos com o uso do pronome da primeira pessoa) dentro de um quadro mais amplo de uma teoria dinamista dos atos mentais – nos moldes da teoria defendida por Dokic (2001). Argumento que esse movimento é necessário se quisermos lidar com o assim chamado problema da dinâmica cognitiva de tal forma que a explicação seja capaz de capturar as características distintivas dos pensamentos de se e atitudes relacionadas. A tese está dividida em quatro partes principais. No Capítulo 1, faço uma revisão dos argumentos a favor da afirmação de que pensamentos de se são especiais e irredutíveis a outros tipos de pensamentos - de re e de dicto em particular. O Capítulo 2 lida com o problema da dinâmica cognitiva como este foi originalmente formulado por Kaplan (1989), e discute até que ponto ele se aplica a pensamentos de se enquanto pensamentos indexicais. No Capítulo 3, considero algumas das objeções levantadas por céticos com relação ao de se (notadamente, Cappelen e Dever 2013) contra a ideia de que o de se e a indexicalidade essencial como um todo são fenômenos profundos e interessantes e que precisamos dar respostas a eles. O Capítulo 4 mostra que os pensamentos de se apresentam características que não são capturadas por uma teoria dos indexicais. No entanto, dado que uma explicação de sua dinâmica ainda é necessária, aponto para a possibilidade de expandir o escopo do problema que foi formulado por Kaplan para pensamentos indexicais. Uma vez que, como argumento, o problema da dinâmica cognitiva está para além de pensamentos indexicais e tem a ver com o desenrolar de todos os estados intencionais no decorrer do tempo, podemos reformulá-lo como um problema da continuidade interna (mental). Concluo que um estudo das condições nas quais pensamentos de se são apreendidos com o passar do tempo equivale a elaboração de uma teoria (neo-Lockeana) da identidade pessoal.
The overall aim of this work is to show that we need to account for the dynamics of de se or I-thoughts (or else, thoughts usually expressed by the use of the first-person pronoun) within the broader picture of a dynamist theory of mental acts - of the kind advocated by Dokic (2001). I argue that the move is necessary if we are to deal with the so-called problem of cognitive dynamics in such a way that the account be able to capture the distinguishing features of de se thoughts and related attitudes. The doctoral dissertation is divided into four main parts. In Chapter One I review the arguments in support of the claim that de se thoughts are special and irreducible to other kinds of thoughts - in particular, de re and de dicto. Chapter Two tackles the issue of cognitive dynamics as originally put by Kaplan (1989) and discusses the extent to which it applies to de se thoughts qua indexical thoughts. Chapter Three considers some of the objections raised by de se skeptics (notably, Cappelen and Dever 2013) against the view that de se and essential indexicality on the whole are deep and interesting phenomena and tries to answer them. Chapter 4 shows that de se thoughts exhibit features not captured by a theory of indexicals. However, given that an account of their dynamics is still needed, I point toward the possibility of broadening the scope of the problem formulated by Kaplan for indexical thoughts. If the problem of cognitive dynamics, as I argue, outstrips indexical thoughts and concerns the unfolding of all intentional states over time, one might want to reformulate it as a problem of internal (mental) continuity. I conclude that a study of the conditions under which de se thinkings are entertained over time amounts to elaborating a (neo-Lockean) theory of personal identity.

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Universidade Federal Fluminense
Desde a primeira edição em 1936, o livro “Raízes do Brasil”, escrito por Sérgio Buarque de Holanda, é uma fonte importante para o pensamento social brasileiro, investigando as origens da fraca coesão social demonstrada pelos brasileiros, entre outras categorias de interesse para a ciência da Administração, que ele teceu, no esforço de explicar a partir das raízes históricas o tecido social brasileiro. Neste trabalho se encetou a revisitação daqueles insights junto com o modelo do Espaço-Dinâmica Organizacional de Paulo Emílio Martins, que proporciona um roteiro para a análise das organizações sociais, situando em cinco parâmetros primários em contínua mudança a historicidade das organizações.
Since the first edition in 1936, the book “Raízes do Brasil”, written by Sérgio Buarque de Holanda, is a remarkable source for the Brazilian Social Thinking, investigating the origins of the poor social cohesion demonstrated by the Brazilians, among other categories of interest for the science of Management which he wove in an effort to explain since the historical roots the Brazilian social tissue. In the present work, it happened a revisiting of those insights, together with the model of Organizational Space-dynamic (Espaço-Dinâmica Organizacional), from Paulo Emílio Matos Martins, that provide a guide for analysis of social organizations, situating in five dynamic parameters in permanent transformation, the historicity of the organizations.

Neste trabalho de pesquisa, buscou-se detectar o modelo de gestão e a visão ética do Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Ceará Campus Iguatu, adotados para o período de 2009 a 2013, sob a ótica das escolas de pensamento estratégico. Para tanto, após o estudo bibliográfico e a construção dos capítulos teóricos, efetuou-se uma descrição do Plano de Desenvolvimento Institucional (PDI) dessa instituição, assim como, uma análise documental desse PDI para o período citado, tomando-se como base as características principais das escolas de pensamento estratégico que estavam presentes no PDI para a constatação do modelo de gestão. Em seguida, tomando-se por base a ética corporativa, com ênfase na responsabilidade social corporativa, buscou-se constatar a visão ética da gestão do IFCE Campus Iguatu para o período já mencionado e realizou-se, também, uma confrontação entre o panorama histórico da gestão na escola pública e as características da escola estratégica com a qual a gestão da instituição teve semelhanças para se entender melhor a dinâmica dessa gestão. Por fim, foi possível concluir que a gestão do IFCE Campus Iguatu caracteriza-se como uma gestão de planejamento estratégico (a segunda das escolas de pensamento estratégico abordadas neste trabalho) e que a visão ética dessa gestão segue os preceitos da ética de responsabilidade social corporativa.
This research work aimed at detecting the specific administration model and the ethical vision of the Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of the state of Ceará Campus Iguatu, adopted for the period from 2009 to 2013, from the perspective of the schools of strategic thought. To this end, after the bibliographical study and the construction of the theoretical chapters, a description of the Institutional Development Plan (PDI, in Portuguese) of the said institution follows, as well as a documental analysis of that PDI for the mentioned period, on the basis of the main characteristics of the schools of strategic thought that were present in the PDI, in order to identify the underlying administration model. As a next step, from the perspective of corporate ethics, with emphasis in corporate social responsibility, it was sought to verify the ethical vision of the administration of the IFCE Campus Iguatu for the period already mentioned. Furthermore, a confrontation between the historical panorama of the administration in the public school and the characteristics of the strategic school with which the administration of the institution had similarities was undertaken in order to better understand the dynamics of that administration. Finally, it was possible to end that the administration of the IFCE Campus Iguatu is characterized as an administration of strategic planning (second of the schools of strategic thought approached in this work) and that the ethical vision of that administration follows the precepts of the ethics of corporate social responsibility.

Orientador: Antonio Carlos Zambon
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Tecnologia
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Resumo: Esta pesquisa fundamenta-se no desenvolvimento de um método de aquisição de conhecimento de agentes textuais baseada em MORPH - Modelo Orientado à Representação do Pensamento Humano - que permite que se extraia o modelo mental de agentes textuais. O objetivo é evidenciar o conhecimento contido no agente textual, representá-lo graficamente para compreendê-lo, facilitando o processo de aprendizagem e refinando o estudo dos conteúdos de um texto. Pois considera-se que nem sempre autores deixam as ideias explícitas (suas estruturas mentais) em artigos científicos, de forma clara e objetiva. O MACAT é um processo composto por três etapas, estruturadas em diretrizes para a extração de objetos de agentes textuais diversos. Apresenta-se além do desenvolvimento do método, a aplicação do MACAT baseado em MORPH, para investigação de artigos científicos, visando à exemplificação de sua utilização e demonstrando sua utilidade na explicitação de conhecimento. Com isso, é póssível evidenciar a dinâmica dos processos contidos nos sistemas organizacionais, que apresentam dificuldades de construir o aprendizado, em razão da ausência de instrumentos pelos quais se possa avaliar a progressão do conhecimento. Como resultado, demonstra-se que o método torna possível a extração e representação do conhecimento de agentes humanos externalizados em agentes textuais, permitindo a compreensão de modelos mentais, alavancando a tomada de decisão em situações complexas
Abstract: This research is based on developing on a method for the Knowledge Acquisition of Textual Agents based on MORPH - Oriented Model to the Human Thought Representation - which allows you to extraction of a textual agent's mental model. The goal is to demonstrate the knowledge present in textual agent, representing it graphically by facilitating its understanding and the learning process and refining the study of the contents of a text. Because it is considered that the authors don't always make explicit ideas (mental structures) of scientific articles, clearly and objectively. The MACAT is a process composed of three steps, structured guidelines for the extraction of objects of various textual agents. It is presented in addition to method development, the application of MACAT based on MORPH for research papers, aimed at the exemplification of its use and demonstrating its usefulness in explicit knowledge. This makes it possible to demonstrate the dynamics organizational processes in computer systems in those which have difficulty in learning to build, due to the lack of instruments that can evaluate the evolution of knowledge. As a result, it is shown that the method makes possible the extraction and representation of knowledge into human agents that externalized in textual agents, able to understanding the mental models, leveraging the decision-making in complex situations
Mestrado
Tecnologia e Inovação
Mestre em Tecnologia

De nombreuses situations font intervenir la notion de communication ainsi que des restrictions sur cette communication. C'est le cas lorsque l'on pense à des informations militaires, des communications médicales, des normes morales, des jeux, etc. Dans certaines des ces situations, il se peut qu'existent des structures pour penser et organiser le droit de communiquer. Dans l'armée par exemple une telle structure est assez simple et facile à comprendre: plus on est haut-placé dans la hiérarchie militaire, plus on a le droit de savoir et moins on a l'autorisation de dire. Le champ médical est un exemple où des restrictions plus subtiles empêchent un patron d'avoir accès à des données médicales d'un de ses travailleurs, alors qu'un docteur devrait pouvoir y avoir accès. Souvent, ces structures sont présentées sous la forme d'un ensemble de règles informelles, ensemble qui peut être incomplet et même contradictoire, laissant la justice décider ce qu'il convient de faire en cas de conflits. L'objectif de ce mémoire est d'apporter quelques éléments, dans le champ de la logique, pour une meilleure compréhension de la notion de `droit de savoir', éléments qui pourraient nous aider à comprendre et répondre aux problèmes pour lesquels cette notion rentre en jeu. On concentre notre réflexion sur la partie informative de la communication, ce qui amène notre sujet central à la notion de `droit de donner une information'
Many situations involve communication and some kind of restrictions on this communication. This is the case when we think about military information, medical communication, moral norms, games, etc. In some situations, we may have structures to think about and organize the right to communicate in such situations. In the army, for example, such a structure is quite simple and easy to understand: the higher you are in the hierarchy, the more you may know and the less you are allowed to say. Indeed, a general can know any secret information but have no right to reveal it to his soldiers, while a soldier can give any information he wants (and may have to give the information he has) without having the right to access most of the information. As another example, in the medical field, more subtle restrictions prevent a boss from getting one of his workers' medical information, while a doctor may have access to it. Often such structures are presented as an informal and incomplete set of rules, that may be contradictory (and let the justice decide what should be done in case of conflict). But we have no general framework to analyze such situations. The aim of this dissertation is to make some progress, in the field of logic, in the understanding of the notion of `right to say', progress that may help us understand and answer problems that involve such a notion. We focus on the informative part of communication (and not on its form) leading our topic to the notion of `right to give a piece of information'

The research undertaken for this largely qualitative dissertation draws on newspaper articles, oral histories, historical documentation, open-ended interviews, and to a lesser extent, questionnaires, in the effort to ultimately confirm the extent to which the benefitting forces of globalization have fractured any existing traditional-historical cultural body of knowledge and expression among the Caymanian people. Indeed, by 2009 some Caymanians had long been verbally denouncing the social and cultural ills of globalization – inclusive of multiculturalism – on their so-called traditional, unassuming way of life, some of them clamoring for an extensive purge of the many foreign nationals in “their” Cayman Islands. Yet, other Caymanians have become somewhat invested in the idea of multicultural “oneness” ostensibly for the sake of peaceful coexistence, harmony and prosperity as these work towards the promotion of a global, borderless cultural awareness. This dissertation relies on theoretical frames centred both on the discrete natures of, and the dualistic struggle between, these two opposing ideological-cultural forces. That this struggle is taking place in the present age, I anticipate the ways in which more modern understandings, which are potentially open to liberating subjectivities, must clash with “historical”, xenophobic and nationalistic viewpoints, viewpoints which have constantly proven contradictory given their adherents’ complacent acceptance of, and participation in, a localised economic prosperity substantively dependent on foreign input. Thus in aggregate terms, this dissertation pinpoints the various effects of an evolving scheme of values and counter-values on an ideologically torn Caymanianness whose contradictory traditional half is especially fighting for its “cultural purity” in an era where its ‘reinvented’ logic is being more and more regarded as anachronistic and somewhat irrational.

The idea of complexity in the teaching and practice of architectural design is linked to formal processes or their programmatic features, leaving aside relevant aspects of the complete cycle of an emergent building: the relationships with the communities involved, management of financial and material resources, technical designs, environmental qualities, construction, and performance. In this way, too much relevance is given to the production of architectural representations and the student’s individual work, in detriment to the real impact that the student's activities may have on our society. In the Clouds of Wood Design-Build Studio (Medellín, Colombia, 2013–17), complexity was understood as the passage of a team of two professors and thirty students through the stages of design and construction of small-format buildings, made in association with rural communities near Medellín and a local company specializing in building with immunized wood. Constructions with a light program, low cost, and high impact on the communities’ daily lives were agreed on between all parties. Excessive production of drawings, models, and simulations was avoided, and collaboration between students, teachers, community leaders, representatives of municipal governments, and construction instructors was encouraged. In each semester of this course (ten studios in five years), the students worked in an articulated way in five groups with defined roles and responsibilities (fund-raising, drawing, wooden models, budget, construction). They only drew plans after knowing in depth the materials and construction technologies to be implemented; they only designed after visiting the communities involved; and they only built after understanding the budgets and the various constraints in play. If in a traditional design studio the students spend at least 80 percent of their time in activities of representation, often disconnected from everyday reality, in this course, they spent half of their time in meetings with experts and leaders, generating not only a balance in favor of the project but also a limited number of precise drawings. The course ran in four one-month modules: the first one to define in a group the overall aspects of the design (program, size, location, qualities) and evaluate five variants; the second, to develop the chosen design proposal; the third, to plan the construction phase; and the last, to build and inaugurate the building with the community. The result was the creation of a family of permeable buildings that are resistant and adapted to the tropical climate; have minimal geometric, structural, and tectonic variations; and made use of the constructive advantages of immunized wood. In addition, the consolidation of a group of students committed to the particular problems of communities, who can propose necessary, relevant, and unexpected buildings, raised the question about what is significant or even radical, today, in the education of architectural design: (a) the exploration of worlds (not yet seen) through images and models, or (b) the incorporation of design into the (already existing) complex and restrictive dynamics through a built architecture project?

Fractional calculus is a mathematical paradigm that has been increasingly adopted to describe the dynamics of systems with hereditary characteristics, or that reflect an average of a large population of micro elements. In this line of thought, this article analyzed the statistical dynamics of a system composed of a large number of micro-mechanical masses with backlash and impacts. We conclude that, while individual dynamics of each element has an integer order nature, the global dynamics reveal the existence of both integer and fractional dynamics.

This work involves the methodology used in the University of Valladolid for Mechanical Engineering students to learn Computational Fluid Dynamics playing an active role. Students pretend to be engineers in a consulting or design office carrying out a fluid mechanics scale down projects. Later they act as reviewers evaluating a project from a colleague. There is a deeper understanding of the topic when they need to discuss the strategies to accomplish the project, to write a technical report and finally to justify the evaluation of other works. Furthermore, they develop their critical thought, writing skills and synthesis capacity. Multimedia material from other institutions that review the concepts learned in the course can be a suitable way to improve the understanding of concepts.

Best practices in product design require engineers to perform preliminary hazard analyses on the most promising conceptual designs, as well as a more rigorous hazard analysis when the details of the product are being finalized. When the product is a complex dynamic system that interacts directly with a human, the engineers must consider the wide range of possible motions and forces that the device could create. Such an analysis goes beyond a simple thought exercise and requires detailed knowledge about the system dynamics and operating environment. This paper presents such an analysis of an inverted-pendulum human transporter. The list of hazards is constructed by using fundamental knowledge of the dynamics and the mechanical design obtained through simulation and experimentation. However, the dynamics are so complex that the list is augmented with hazards that are revealed by searching through accident videos posted on the Internet. The severity of each hazard is estimated using an energy-based measurement of the hazard onset conditions. While this case study is interesting, it also provides a systematic approach to hazard analysis that can be applied to other complex and dangerous dynamic systems.

In the last years, increasing interest has been focused on an innovative concept of Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) characterized by a fast neutron spectrum that combines the favorable characteristics of MSRs adopting molten salt fluorides both as fuel and coolant with those ones of fast neutron reactors. As a matter of fact, the Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR) has been recognized as a long term alternative to solid-fuelled fast neutron systems and has been identified as reference Gen-IV configuration. Although considerable studies have been carried out for the analysis of the graphite-moderated MSR dynamics, the adoption of a fast spectrum configuration without graphite in the core is expected to notably modify the dynamic behavior of the system, thus requiring further investigation. In this paper, a preliminary analysis of the MSFR dynamics is performed allowing for the evaluation of the impact of some safety parameters (e.g., feedback coefficients and delayed neutron fraction) on the system behavior for different fuel cycle strategies. For this purpose, a simplified non-linear one-dimensional model of the primary circuit has been developed and the dynamic response of the system has been investigated with reference to different significant transient initiators, namely: unprotected transient overpower, unprotected loss of flow, and unprotected loss of heat sink. These analyses are thought to give a basic understanding of the MSFR dynamics, as well as significant indications in terms of the system safety parameters.

Red blood cells (RBCs) or erythrocytes are biconcave disks with diameter of 8μm and thickness of 2 μm. RBC can be considered as a nucleus free deformable capsule enclosed by a flexible membrane and consisting of an incompressible viscous fluid [8, 9]. The deformation of RBCs is thought to play a major role in both RBC dynamics and functionality. Previous studies have indicated that two important characteristics related to deformation of the RBC [1]: i) the interior of the RBC is a liquid state that surrounded by an elastic membrane, ii) the biconcave shape of the RBC enables it to deform into a wide varieties of shapes without inducing any stresses in the cell membrane.

This report presents a review of quasi-static and dynamic properties of various iron, titanium, nickel, cobalt, and aluminum metals. The physical and mechanical properties of these materials are crucial for developing composite armoring systems vital for protecting critical bridges from terrorist attacks. When the wide range of properties these materials encompass is considered, it is possible to exploit the optimal properties of metal alloys though proper placement within the armoring system, governed by desired protective mechanism and environmental exposure conditions.

This rapid research review provides an overview of the current state of knowledge on the scale and dynamics of trade-based money laundering (TBML) and key challenges and opportunities in relation to TBML, both globally and in relation to the United Kingdom (UK) specifically. The study took place over ten days in August and September 2022, and involved a review of existing literature, as well as two interviews with experts. Much of the literature reviewed originated from international organisations and publications by national governments, supplemented by news reports and publications by private sector firms. Academic papers were also reviewed, though the availability of relevant, recent, peer-reviewed papers was limited.

Global oyster abundance has declined ~85 % over the past 200 years, primarily because of overharvesting (Beck, Brumbaugh, and Airoldi 2011; Kirby 2004). Healthy oyster reef systems benefit the environment in many ways, including water-quality improvement, shoreline protection, increased biological and habitat diversity, and carbon sequestration. To maintain these environmental benefits, reef-restoration efforts that produce healthy, sustainable oyster reefs are essential. To this end, the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has been involved in reef-restoration projects in many locations, including extensive efforts in the Chesapeake Bay (Virginia, Maryland), coastal regions of New York and New Jersey, and the Gulf of Mexico. There are many benefits to creating and maintaining oyster reef systems that are well connected, for both oysters and other organisms within the reef and surrounding habitats. This technical note presents the current knowledge of benefits and costs to restore oyster-reef connectivity along the East and Gulf Coasts of North America. Connectivity of oyster reefs can refer to the physical location of reefs with respect to one another as well as to the dynamics of the genetic links within a metapopulation or to the extent to which larval transport and recruitment unite reef communities. For the purposes of this technical note, connectivity is defined as the spatial aggregation of reefs, though we address impacts of genetic and larval flow as well. Reef connectivity positively affects many ecosystem services and dynamics but can also have unintended consequences (that is, negative externalities). This technical note reviews the benefits and costs of increasing connectivity and presents a brief example of how trade-offs may occur between these potentially opposing ecological objectives. Here, we focus on the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, which inhabits the East and Gulf Coasts of North America, though many of the concepts and principles discussed may apply to other oyster species as well.

We explore how Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) can help to fill a large infrastructure financing gap in developing countries by indirectly mobilizing resources from other entities. The analysis focuses on more than 6,500 transactions in 2005-2020 to developing and emerging markets from the Infrastructure Journal database. Using granular data, we analyze the dynamics of flows from different actors to infrastructure at the country-subsector level, and control for a wide range of fixed effects. MDB lending significantly increases the inflows from other sources. Cross-border and domestic resources are mobilized from both the public and the private sectors. Effects exhibit country heterogeneity. Mobilization occurs in countries of all income levels, though it is stronger in low and lower-middle income countries. In countries that use capital controls frequently mobilization effects are undermined. When the global financial crisis of 2008 hit, no difference in mobilization effects was found, unlike the COVID-19 pandemic when mobilization effects were weakened. The findings survive a long battery of robustness checks, and no evidence of anticipation effects is found.

In 2018, jetties and a sill were constructed by the US Army Corps of Engineers adjacent to the Sheep Pen Gut Federal Channel at Rhodes Point, Smith Island, Maryland. These navigation improvements were constructed under Section 107 of the Continuing Authorities Program. Material dredged for construction of the structures and realignment of the channel were used to restore degraded marsh. Following construction and dredging, 2 years of monitoring were performed to evaluate the performance of navigation improvements with respect to the prevention of shoaling within the channel, shoreline changes, and impacts to submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Technical Report ERDC/CHL TR-20-14 describes the first year of post-project monitoring and the methodologies employed. This report describes conclusions derived from 2 years of monitoring. While the navigation improvements are largely preventing the channel from infilling, shoaling within is occurring at rates higher than expected. The placement site appears stable and accreting landward; however, there continues to be erosion along the shoreline and through the gaps in the breakwaters. SAV monitoring indicates that SAV is not present in the project footprint, even though turbidity is comparable to the reference area. Physical disturbance of the bottom sediment during construction may explain SAV absence.

The article deals with the ways in which social networks and the blogosphere influence the formation and implementation of a PR campaign. Examples from the political sphere (election campaigns, initiatives), business (TV brands, traditional and online media) have revealed the opportunities that Facebook, Telegram, Twitter, YouTube and blogs promote in promoting advertising, ideas, campaigns, thoughts, or products. Author blogs created on special websites or online media may not be as much of a tool in PR as an additional tool on social media. It is noted that choosing a blog as the main tool of PR campaign has both positive and negative points. Social networks intervene in the sphere of human life, become a means of communication, promotion, branding. The effectiveness of social networks has been evidenced by such historically significant events as Brexit, the Arab Spring, and the Revolution of Dignity. Special attention was paid to the 2019 presidential election. Based on the analysis of individual PR campaigns, the reasons for successful and unsuccessful campaigns from the point of view of network communication, which provide unlimited multimedia and interactive tools for PR, are highlighted. In fact, these concepts significantly affect the effectiveness of the implementation of PR-campaign, its final effectiveness, which is determined by the achievement of goals. Attention is drawn to the culture of communication during the PR campaign, as well as the concepts of “trolls”, “trolling”, “bots”, “botoin industry”. The social communication component of these concepts is unconditional. Choosing a blog as the main tool of a marketing campaign has both positive and negative aspects. Only a person with great creative potential can run and create a blog. In addition, it takes a long time. In fact, these two points are losing compared to other internet marketing tools. Further research is interesting in two respects. First, a comparison of the dynamics of the effectiveness of PR-campaign tools in Ukraine in 2020 and in the past, in particular, at the dawn of state independence. Secondly, to investigate how/or the concept of PR-campaigns in social networks and blogs is constantly changing.

The Women, Peace and Security or Gender Peace and Security (WPS/GPS) agenda has expanded significantly over the 20+ years of concerted efforts at many levels to expand the role of women in conflict resolution and peacebuilding. Yet many authors note that the expansion of international agreements and national plans to support greater women’s participation in decision-making have yet to translate into concrete changes. This report examines progress in promoting women’s meaningful participation in decision making processes in conflict prevention and peacebuilding, with a focus on changes since 2018. Evidence on women’s meaningful participation in decision-making tends to focus on a small range of measurable outcomes with some studies considering the outcomes of women’s involvement in those processes to determine the extent to which they might be ‘meaningful’. Few studies examine differential outcomes of such initiatives for different groups of women, and most data does not allow for the disaggregation of intersecting identities between gender, ethnicity, race, disability, migration status and other key factors. Evidence collected for this report suggests that policies and programmes seeking to support greater women’s participation in decision-making in conflict prevention and peacebuilding often struggle to address the broader structural factors that inhibit women’s empowerment. Tackling longstanding and often deeply embedded harmful social norms has proven challenging across sectors, and in conflict or post-conflict settings with highly complex social dynamics, this can be especially difficult. Many of the issues highlighted in the literature as hindering progress on the WPS agenda relate to cross-cutting issues at the heart of gender inequality. Multiple authors from within women’s movements in conflict and post-conflict settings emphasise the need for policies and programmes that support women to act as agents of change in their own communities and which amplify their voices rather than speak on their behalf. Recent achievements in South Sudan and the Pacific region are indicative of the potential of women’s movements to affect change in conflict prevention and peacebuilding and suggest progress is being made in some areas, though gender equality in these processes may be a long way off.

Information security and associated vulnerabilities have long been a pressing challenge, from the fundamental scientific backstage to the frontline across the most diverse sectors of society. At the tip of the iceberg of this problem, the citizens immediately feel that the reservation of privacy and the degradation of the quality and security of the information and communication on which they depend for the day-to-day activities, already of crucial relevance, are at stake. Naturally though, the challenges do not end there. There is a whole infrastructure for storing information, processing and communication, whose security and reliability depend on key sectors gearing modern society – such as emergency communication systems (medical, civil and environmental protection, among others), transportation and geographic information, the financial communications systems at the backbone of day-to-day transactions, the information and telecommunications systems in general. And crucially the entire defence ecosystem that in essence is a stalwart in preventing our civilisation to self-annihilate in full fulfilment of the second principle of thermodynamics. The relevance of the problem further encompasses the preservation of crucial values such as the right to information, security and integrity of democratic processes, internal administration, justice, defence and sovereignty, ranging from the well-being of the citizen to the security of the nation and beyond. In the present communication, we take a look at how to scientifically and technically empower society to address these challenges, with the hope and pragmatism enabled by our emerging pathways in information physics and complexity. Edging beyond classical and quantum frontiers and their vulnerabilities to unveil new principles, methodologies and technologies at the core of the next generation system dynamic intelligence and security. To illustrate the concepts and tools, rather than going down the road of engineered systems that we can ultimately control, we take aim at the bewildering complexity of nature, deciphering new secrets in the mathematical codex underlying its complex coevolutionary phenomena that so heavily impact our lives, and ultimately bringing out novel insights, methods and technologies that propel information physics and security beyond quantum frontiers.

Over the last decade there has been a dramatic shift in global agricultural practice. The increase in human population, especially in underdeveloped arid and semiarid regions of the world, poses unprecedented challenges to production of an adequate and economically feasible food supply to undernourished populations. Furthermore, the increased living standard in many industrial countries has created a strong demand for high-quality, out-of-season vegetables and fruits as well as for ornamentals such as cut and potted flowers and bedding plants. As a response to these imminent challenges and demands and because of a ban on methyl bromide fumigation of horticultural field soils, soilless greenhouse production systems are regaining increased worldwide attention. Though there is considerable recent empirical and theoretical research devoted to specific issues related to control and management of soilless culture production systems, a comprehensive approach that quantitatively considers all relevant physicochemical processes within the growth substrates is lacking. Moreover, it is common practice to treat soilless growth systems as static, ignoring dynamic changes of important physicochemical and hydraulic properties due to root and microbial growth that require adaptation of management practices throughout the growth period. To overcome these shortcomings, the objectives of this project were to apply thorough physicochemical characterization of commonly used greenhouse substrates in conjunction with state-of-the-art numerical modeling (HYDRUS-3D, PARSWMS) to not only optimize management practices (i.e., irrigation frequency and rates, fertigation, container size and geometry, etc.), but to also “engineer” optimal substrates by mixing organic (e.g., coconut coir) and inorganic (e.g., perlite, pumice, etc.) base substrates and modifying relevant parameters such as the particle (aggregate) size distribution. To evaluate the proposed approach under commercial production conditions, characterization and modeling efforts were accompanied by greenhouse experiments with tomatoes. The project not only yielded novel insights regarding favorable physicochemical properties of advanced greenhouse substrates, but also provided critically needed tools for control and management of containerized soilless production systems to provide a stress-free rhizosphere environment for optimal yields, while conserving valuable production resources. Numerical modeling results provided a more scientifically sound basis for the design of commercial greenhouse production trials and selection of adequate plant-specific substrates, thereby alleviating the risk of costly mistrials.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.