Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Theory of economic crisis'
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1
Giwa, Titilola Opeyemi. "Optimal investment strategy for economies in crisis." Thesis, Royal Holloway, University of London, 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.268801.
Abstract:
The aim of this work is to determine the best response of investment to shocks and crisis situations. The problems that arise during crises vary depending on each country's peculiarities. However, there are some things that are common in almost all situations. In very many cases, we find that from the household level where children are pulled out of school and put to work to support family income to the government decision on education funding, one thing is common - investment tends to be cut. In standard optimal growth models consumption and investment generally turn out to be a fixed fraction of output. When a crisis occurs, this fixed fraction of a lower output means a lower level of investment. In an optimal growth framework with Cobb-Douglas production function and logarithmic utility function, I present a model that adds a feature called 'the gap' that describe the domestic situation. Developing countries are often plagued by sociopolitical and economic factors that constrain their productivity and/or capacity utilisation. When weakened in this way, an exogenous shock that causes a loss of capital could have devastating effects. In such a situation depreciation could conceivable exceed its natural rate and it is this difference between the actual rate experienced and the natural rate that I call 'the gap'. I argue that when 'the gap' exists, there are additional benefits to be reaped from investment. The model I present demonstrates that under certain conditions, rather than investing a fixed fraction, the rate of investment should actually increase such that investment is maintained at itspre-crisis level. This is opti~al and desirable because in the long run, the welfare path of economies that follow this strategy is superior. This result is empirically tested using a simple regression model. First, I determine the investment strategy followed by a sample of countries worst hit by the debt crisis of the mid-eighties, then I examine the income and consumption paths. The results show that the majority of the sample countries followed the implied optimal strategy, and these countries followed a superior income and welfare path in the post-crisis years. This result therefore lends support to the model presented, and also raises an important question. Why is it that countries that followed the optimal path only seem to be marginally better off than those that did not? To answer this question, I examine the issue of financing the investment decision. For many countries in crisis, the availability of credit was a crucial factor. Many faced the dilemma of needing funds, yet being unable to attract it because creditors considered them too risky. In an extended version of the basic model, I show that more debt was not optimal for funding the investment choice. Although following the optimal path would result in higher output, as long as funding was through debt, consumption and welfare would only be marginally better because of the future burden of debt service. On the other hand, selffinancing would require severe cuts in consumption that may not be justifiable in terms of long run gains. The solution - aid and financial support for export oriented adjustment programs should be given by international financial organisations to countries that choose to follow the optimal investment strategy. This would preserve and improve the qualityof such organisations' investment, and ensure an even better welfare path for debtor countries in the long run
2
Wynarczyk, Peter. "Economic crisis and the crisis in economics : internal and external historical aspects of the development of monetary thought in the interwar period - a methodological appraisal." Thesis, University of Kent, 1990. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.236929.
3
Uctug, Cagan. "Regulation Theory And Economic Crises: The Cases Of Greece And Turkey." Master's thesis, METU, 2012. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12615177/index.pdf.
Abstract:
This thesis analyzes the economic crises of recent years through the lens of the Regulation Theory. It focuses on the Greek Crisis of 2009 and the Turkish Financial Crises of 2000 and 2001. Furthermore it also analyzes the crisis in the United States to give a better grounding for the current crises. The thesis tries to answer the questions of whether or not Regulation Theory proves to be a sufficient tool for analyzing these crises and whether or not these fit the definition of crisis that the Regulation Theory puts forward. It is argued that Regulation Theory explains to a great extent both the causes and the structure of the crises.
4
Yildizoglu, Ergin. "A theoretical and historical study of crisis in the capitalist mode of production." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 1989. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.253653.
5
Balachandran, G. "Indian monetary policy and the international liquidity crisis during the inter-war years (1919-1939)." Thesis, SOAS, University of London, 1989. http://eprints.soas.ac.uk/28452/.
Abstract:
This thesis examines the multi-lateral considerations that, in our view, underlay the formulation of monetary policy in India in the period between the two world wars. During and after the First World War, Britain faced a severe liquidity crisis. We argue that monetary policy in India was formulated to take account of this crisis. Traditionally, India was a large absorber of gold on the non-monetary account. The persistent aim of British monetary policy in the Indian context during the entire interwar period was that of not allowing India to set up a monetary demand for gold in addition to her non-monetary demand for it and secondly, through deflationary policies (including exchange rate adjustments), to limit India's non-monetary gold demands to the minimum. Indian gold exports during the depression, which gave room for manoeuvre in the management of the sterling after September 1931, were a logical sequel to this policy. The British liquidity crisis in this period took the form of her current account surpluses being inadequate to support a high level of overseas lending. Besides, in an uncertain financial environment, Britain was a large short-term debtor as the British bank rate acted as much to increase her short-term liabilities as it did by calling in her short-term assets. The British desire to return to gold at the pre-1914 parity required domestic deflation which itself was a matter of severe political contention. In the circumstances, Britain hoped her return to gold would be accomplished by a US inflation and US export of capital. Compounding this situation was the thinly veiled fear, in Britain, of the erosion of the key currency role of the sterling and the loss of its global financial leadership to the USA. Control over Indian monetary policy and its outcome proved valuable to Britain in this environment.
6
Kopec, Andrew. "Economic Crisis and American Literature, 1819-1857." The Ohio State University, 2013. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1365760287.
7
TROMBETTA, FEDERICO. "MODELLING THE EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE TYPE OF GOVERNMENT." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/6224.
Abstract:
Questa tesi contribuisce alla letteratura di economia politica attraverso l’analisi degli effetti di una crisi economica sulla tipologia di governo. In particolare, ci si concentra su due tipologie di governo che possono essere viste come anomalie empiricamente correlate a fenomeni di crisi economica e finanziaria: il populismo e la tecnocrazia.
Dopo una rassegna critica della letteratura esistente, si sviluppano due distinti modelli di teoria dei giochi. Il primo analizza il populismo nel contesto di una relazione principale-agente tra l’elettore e il politico. Concentrandosi su come la probabilità che si affermi un governo populista è influenzata dai parametri che catturano la situazione economica del Paese, si dimostra che, in un contesto di crisi economica, è più probabile che il governo attui provvedimenti populisti.
Il secondo modello spiega la comparsa di un governo tecnocratico (e in parte anche la sua stabilità) in un sistema politico in cui gli agenti principali sono due partiti e, in alcuni casi, un gruppo di tecnocrati. Qui si prova che il governo tecnocratico ha più probabilità di emergere in un contesto di crisi economica, quando il parlamento è equamente diviso e quando la distanza ideologica tra i due partiti è sufficientemente grande.This thesis contributes to the literature on theoretical political economy analyzing the effects of economic crisis on the types of government. In particular, we focus on two types of government that can be seen as anomalies empirically related with the emergence of financial and economic crisis: populism and technocracy. After a critical survey of the existing literature on those topics, we develop two different game-theoretical models. The first one studies populism in the context of a standard political-agency relationship between a voter and a politician. We see how the likelihood of the emergence of a populist government is affected by parameters representing the economic conditions of a country, and we find that, in a context of economic crisis, the government is more likely to make populist decisions. The second model explains the emergence of a technocratic government (and captures some issues related to its stability) in a post-election partisan politics setting where the main players are two parties and possibly a group of technocrats. We prove that the technocratic government is more likely to emerge in a context of economic crisis, when the parliament is evenly split and the ideological distance between the two parties is big enough.
8
TROMBETTA, FEDERICO. "MODELLING THE EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE TYPE OF GOVERNMENT." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/6224.
Abstract:
Questa tesi contribuisce alla letteratura di economia politica attraverso l’analisi degli effetti di una crisi economica sulla tipologia di governo. In particolare, ci si concentra su due tipologie di governo che possono essere viste come anomalie empiricamente correlate a fenomeni di crisi economica e finanziaria: il populismo e la tecnocrazia.
Dopo una rassegna critica della letteratura esistente, si sviluppano due distinti modelli di teoria dei giochi. Il primo analizza il populismo nel contesto di una relazione principale-agente tra l’elettore e il politico. Concentrandosi su come la probabilità che si affermi un governo populista è influenzata dai parametri che catturano la situazione economica del Paese, si dimostra che, in un contesto di crisi economica, è più probabile che il governo attui provvedimenti populisti.
Il secondo modello spiega la comparsa di un governo tecnocratico (e in parte anche la sua stabilità) in un sistema politico in cui gli agenti principali sono due partiti e, in alcuni casi, un gruppo di tecnocrati. Qui si prova che il governo tecnocratico ha più probabilità di emergere in un contesto di crisi economica, quando il parlamento è equamente diviso e quando la distanza ideologica tra i due partiti è sufficientemente grande.This thesis contributes to the literature on theoretical political economy analyzing the effects of economic crisis on the types of government. In particular, we focus on two types of government that can be seen as anomalies empirically related with the emergence of financial and economic crisis: populism and technocracy. After a critical survey of the existing literature on those topics, we develop two different game-theoretical models. The first one studies populism in the context of a standard political-agency relationship between a voter and a politician. We see how the likelihood of the emergence of a populist government is affected by parameters representing the economic conditions of a country, and we find that, in a context of economic crisis, the government is more likely to make populist decisions. The second model explains the emergence of a technocratic government (and captures some issues related to its stability) in a post-election partisan politics setting where the main players are two parties and possibly a group of technocrats. We prove that the technocratic government is more likely to emerge in a context of economic crisis, when the parliament is evenly split and the ideological distance between the two parties is big enough.
9
Santarcángelo, Juan E., and Roberto Lampa. "The international financial crisis: Theoretical debates, economic policies, and lessons." Economía, 2014. http://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/index/handle/123456789/116872.
Abstract:
The global financial crisis has had a strong impact on most European countries. While at first the massive injection of resources helped the financial system not to collapse, the austerity policies implemented throughout the continent have not brought the expected economic growth. Interestingly, the type of intervention undertaken is rooted in the neoclassical tradition, which entails a specific understanding of the functioning of the financial system and the economy. In this context, the objectives of this paper are firstly, to analyze the main theoretical assumptions and the specific way in which the crisis is understood and the applied economic policies are developed under this tradition; and secondly, to account for the social and economic impact of the policies applied, and the different margins of action that each European country still has.La crisis financiera global ha tenido un fuerte impacto en las economías europeas centrales y fundamentalmente en las periféricas. Si bien en un primer momento, la masiva inyección de recursos logró que el sistema financiero no colapse, las políticas de austeridad aplicadas no han podido consolidar las dinámicas de crecimiento esperadas. Lo interesante del tipo de intervención desarrollada, es que las medidas han sido justificadas en base a una serie de trabajos teóricos que presentan una visión particular del funcionamiento del sistema financiero y de la economía. Eneste contexto, los objetivos del presente trabajo son por un lado, analizar los principales supuestos teóricos y modo específico de entender a la crisis que han fundamentado las políticas económicas aplicadas; y por el otro, dar cuenta del impacto económico y social de estas medidas intentando dar cuenta los diferentes márgenes de acción que aún hoy poseen los países europeos.
10
Siddiqui, Asif. "Microeconomic theory and foreign policy crisis decisions : Bangla Desh, 1971." Thesis, McGill University, 1991. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=60684.
Abstract:
This study analyzes the Bangladesh Crisis by building upon previous works that have applied microeconomic theory to international relations. One of the most innovative lines of inquiry from the realist school is to study international relations through analogy with microeconomic theory. Although used to analyze conflict, war, and the workings of the international system, a strict application of microeconomic theory to interstate crises is rare. This thesis will endeavour to contribute to this linkage.
11
Fatouh, Mahmoud. "Post 2007 crisis unconventional monetary policy in the UK." Thesis, University of Essex, 2015. http://repository.essex.ac.uk/16916/.
Abstract:
The main focus of this PhD thesis is to investigate the unconventional monetary policy tools introduced by the Bank of England (BoE) in its response to the recent financial crisis and to analyse its impact on the UK economy and especially the banking sector. The thesis consists of four chapters; an introductory chapter and three self-contained chapters. The first chapter mainly inspects the types and the sizes of the unconventional interventions of the monetary authorities in the UK, the US, and the EU after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. It also describes the transmission channels through which the impact of the unconventional monetary policies is delivered into the wide economy, and includes a survey of the literature of quantitative easing. The second chapter employs a flow of funds (FOFs) analysis based on Godley and Lavoie (2007) balance sheet framework using ONS sectoral data for the period between 2007 and 2011. It focuses on two distinct sub-periods (2007-2008 and 2009-2011) to assess the initial effects of mid-2007 financial crisis on the UK economy and examine the influence of BoE’s asset purchase program (APP) on the sectoral financial positions in the main financial asset categories. The analysis implicates five main results. First, APP was unsuccessful in expanding bank lending which dropped by about £208 billion in the 2009-2011 period. Second, APP might have positive effects on debt securities and equity prices and hence consumer wealth. Third, through reducing the cost of borrowing, it appears that APP induced the majority of sectors to issue more debt securities. Fourth, after the introduction of APP early in 2009, several sectors relied more on equity rather than debt capital. Finally, domestic productive sectors (NFCs, MFIs, OFIs, and INSs) showed some abroad bias and sent massive amounts of money out of the country. The third chapter explains the drop in total bank lending after the introduction of APP from an agent-based computational economics (ACE) point of view. The baseline model contains four types of agents -households (HHs), big firms (BFs), small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and banks-. These agents interact monthly for a period of 50 months in an environment that simulates bank lending markets in the UK after APP was introduced in 2009. The ACE model is anchored to the actual values of several variables -such as homeownership statistics and nonfinancial firms leverage ratio- around the time of the program initiation. The lower bond yields caused by APP encourage BFs to substitute bank borrowing with security debt (bonds). In addition, the risk weight regime of Basel capital adequacy requirements induces banks to favour mortgages over business loans to SMEs. My analysis contrasts the implications on bank behaviour of Basel III capital adequacy requirements (scenario 3) with Basel I (simple capital adequacy requirements with no risk weights) and the case of no capital requirements (scenarios 1 and 2 respectively). The scenario analysis shows that in the absence of risk weighting (i.e. scenarios 1 and 2), both lending to SMEs and total lending would have been higher. The combination of lower bond yields and Basel III capital adequacy requirements on banks appears to play a role in the drop in the amount of bank loans to businesses. Similar to the actual data, simulation results indicate that the rise in the amount of mortgages was not enough to counter the decrease in business loans which represents the main cause of the shrinkage in total bank lending. The fourth chapter tries to analyse the same issue of falling bank lending after APP introduction using a three-sector DSGE model. The main results show that a negative shock in gilts yield -initiated by massive asset purchases under the program- induces big unrestricted firms to shift from bank borrowing to security debt (bonds). The fall in BFs bank borrowing decreases the share of the loans to BFs in banks asset compositions and hence increases the amount of risk weighted assets. Induced by Basel III capital requirements, banks start to adjust their portfolios to accommodate more mortgages and less loans to small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The analysis of the role of capital adequacy requirements points out that while the introduction of strong enough capital requirements decreases the risks in the banking system, it may deprive the bank financing from SMEs.
12
Sippl-Swezey, Nicolas. "Heterogeneous gain forecasting using historic asset information." Oberlin College Honors Theses / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=oberlin1354304083.
13
Gonzalez-Garcia, Jesus R. "Four essays on the 1994 Mexican crisis." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2000. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/111013/.
Abstract:
Most of the thesis is devoted to studying the collapse of the Mexican peso in December 1994 using empirical methods that allow shifts in regimes, as well as a small theoretical model based on the escape clause approach. Also, we present a study of the consumption boom observed in Mexico in the period 1989-1994 to highlight the importance of taking into account structural breaks in co-integration modelling. We use a series of realignment expectations, as well as linear and non-linear methods, to look for evidence that helps to characterise the Mexican crisis. Contrary to the predictions of first-generation models of currency crises, we find that the credibility of the peso did not experience any steady deterioration before its devaluation, and there was no stable relationship between realignment expectations and economic fundamentals. By using a Markov-switching regression model, we show that realignment expectations shifted over time between regimes of relatively high and low credibility, and that these shifts were more frequent during the troubled 1994. This evidence makes it problematic to endorse explanations of the collapse of the peso based on models of speculative attacks, and suggests using the approach of second-generation models of currency crises to study the Mexican experience. The theoretical model is designed to illustrate some specific features of the Mexican experience. We argue that the substitution of peso denominated assets for dollar denominated and indexed assets in investors’ portfolios helped policymakers to resist recurrent periods of confidence crisis during 1994, but it also made it more difficult to eliminate a potential self-fulfilling devaluation. In particular, the sterilisation of reserve losses during 1994 seems to be more important in the onset of the devaluation of the peso than the increase in the stock of dollar indexed bonds. We use an index of pressure in the foreign exchange market and mean-variance Markov- switching models to study the timing and causes of the shifts of the Mexican economy between states of calm and crisis. Models with time-varying transition probabilities do not yield conclusive results. Hence, we adopt a two step approach to obtain the probability of the state of crisis at each date in the sample, and then model this series as a function of economic fundamentals and political events. We find that the reduction of the debt-output ratio and positive political events maintained the economy in the state of calm up to 1994, despite a continuous real appreciation of the peso. However, the end of the declining path of the debt-output ratio and negative political shocks produced a shift towards the state of crisis for most of 1994 that finally led to the collapse of the peso. The study of the consumption boom observed in Mexico in the period 1989-1994 illustrates that structural breaks in long run relationships can be dated and evaluated if we allow regime shifts in co-integration modelling. The available data rejects a stable co-integration relationship between consumption and income. Meanwhile, using Markov- switching models, we find that there was a marked shift in the co-integration vector after the implementation of the program for stabilisation and economic reform in December 1987. The program caused the former unitary income elasticity of consumption to increase by almost 30 per cent, but later the shift was reversed when the currency and financial crisis erupted at the end of 1994.
14
Temizsoy, Asena. "The effects of crisis on the interbank markets and sovereign risk : empirical investigations." Thesis, City University London, 2016. http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/15184/.
Abstract:
The 2007-2008 global financial turmoil is the most severe crisis since the Great Depression. Starting with the sub-prime defaults in the United States, it quickly spills over into other markets leading to the collapses of many financial institutions, worldwide banks bailouts, downturns in asset prices and also to sovereign debt crises. The aim of this thesis is to empirically investigate the repercussions of this financial crisis on interbank market and sovereign risk. In Chapter one, we empirically explore the effect of bank lending relationships in the interbank market. We use data from the e-MID market that represents the only transparent electronic platform in Europe and the United States, unaffected by search costs and other actions. We show that stable relationships exist and that they play a significant role during the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Trading with preferred counterparts is associated with more favorable rates for both lenders and borrowers, and carries larger trading volumes. The results point to a peer monitoring role of relationship lending, which contributes, at a time of financial distress, to a smooth liquidity redistribution among banks. Relationship lending thus plays an important positive role for financial stability. Chapter two investigates the role of banks' network centrality in the interbank market on their funding rates. Specifically we analyze transaction data from the e-MID market, over the 2006-2009 period, which encompasses the global financial crisis. We show that interbank spreads are significantly affected by both local and global measures of connectedness. The effects of network centrality increased as the financial crisis evolved. Local measures show that having more links increases borrowing costs for borrowers and reduces premia for lenders. For global network centrality, borrowers receive a significant discount if they increase their intermediation activity and become more central, while lenders pay in general a premium (i.e. receive lower rates) for centrality. This provides evidence of the `too-interconnected-to-fail' hypothesis. Chapter three draws attention to the effect of monetary policies and international linkages on European countries sovereign risks. Using a Global VAR method that allows for interdependencies across individual variables within and across units, we model government bond credit default swaps (CDS) relative to Germany by domestic, global, monetary and weighted foreign variables, where weights are calculated based on the countries' fiscal positions. We find evidence of positive correlation between sovereign bond CDS and risk aversion for almost all countries in the eurozone. When the European Central Bank (ECB) increases the refinancing rate, we observe an increase in risk of sovereign bonds of all countries due to negative environment in Euro area. A decline in money aggregate (M3) leads to all countries becoming more fragile, hence increasing sovereign risk. The shocks that stem from monetary policy changes (i.e. an increase in ECB refinancing rate) causes a rise in sovereign risk due to sensitivity to crisis and uncertainty in Euro area. In contrast, monetary policies have an opposite impact on Greece due to its relative worse performance.
15
Holland, Curtis Carl. "MBA Students' Perspectives toward the Economic Crisis: Implications for Contemporary Corporate Culture?" Thesis, Boston College, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/1326.
Abstract:
Thesis advisor: Paul GrayThesis advisor: Paul Schervish
The current economic crisis resembles a type of "critical situation" wherein everyday assumptions and routines sustaining hegemonic ideologies and their corresponding forms of social power are prone to be disrupted (Giddens 1987). Such situations provide opportunities for the relative strength of such hegemonies, and how they are effectively restored and/or challenged, to be uncovered. In undertaking this study I sought to discover the social and economic implications and lessons MBA students associate with the current economic crisis and how they frame and rationalize such perceptions. In so doing, I further aimed to uncover specific ideological processes they perform in preserving and/or challenging conventional tenets of liberal capitalism. I reexamine the sociological concept of ideology in reference to the empirical data, and test the capacity of Giddens' (1979, 1984) and Mannheim's (1949) combined methodologies in uncovering interconnections of consciousness, ideology and agency. I conducted semi-structured interviews with 23 MBA students from five universities in Boston, and used a combination of grounded theory and theory testing to analyze the data. Findings reveal not only the specific content comprising hegemonic notions of what constitutes economic and social reality among respondents, but also reflect how ideology functions as a holistic process of social and self understanding and how it reproduces, and is reproduced by, the performance of agencies within particular corporate and educational structures. I argue that the tenets espoused and enacted by many respondents reveal a stark challenge to future social change. Even amid the current crisis -the largest since the Great Depression -most respondents acknowledge that this event had little impact on how they view their professional vocations or the macro economic system. This finding not only speak strongly to the rigidity of conventional tenets underscoring our liberal capitalist culture, but also implies the urgent need to reconsider how our educational institutions should play a greater role in challenging conventional notions of reality espoused so fervently by burgeoning business professionals. I further argue that critical, systematic evaluations of consciousness and ideology should take a more substantial role in the social sciences in determining the restraints and possibilities for social change
Thesis (MA) — Boston College, 2010
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Sociology
16
Gozman, Daniel. "A post financial crisis study of compliance practices and systems in global financial organizations : an institutionalist perspective." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2014. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/3125/.
Abstract:
The financial crisis of 2007–2009 and the resultant pressures exerted on policymakers to prevent future crises have precipitated coordinated regulatory responses globally. As a result, large scale regulatory change is being enacted within this industry to protect investors and economic systems. Very little research exists, either prior to the crisis or since, on how compliance practices are managed through technology within financial organizations. The research objective of this study is to understand how institutional changes to the regulatory landscape may affect corresponding locally institutionalized operational practices within financial organizations. The study adopts an Investment Management System (IMS) as its case and investigates different implementations of this system within eight financial organizations, focused on investment activities within capital markets. This study makes a contribution by outlining a detailed review of this technology and identifying post-crisis practices for organizing compliance and the social forces influencing them through technology. Through symbolic systems, relational systems, routines and artefacts the IMS diffuses new compliance practices and further embeds existing ones. The study shows that this system is not objective and is currently in flux as this dynamic and complex environment evolves in the wake of the global financial crisis. Correspondingly, social, political and functional pressures are acting to deinstitutionalise related behaviours and practices. Yet compliance behaviours and practices are simultaneously being institutionalised through coercive, normative and mimetic mechanisms. However, the study also highlights the ability of some agents to exercise limited control on the impact of regulatory institutions. The research found evidence that some older practices persisted and so the study suggests that the institutionalization of technology induced compliant behaviour is still uncertain. The research makes an additional contribution to practitioners by distilling the findings into a model of IS capabilities for compliance and a model to measure the maturity of a firm’s compliance capabilities.
17
Lodi, Sara <1990>. "Modern Monetary Theory, an answer to Euro crisis." Master's Degree Thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/5266.
Abstract:
As the effects of the crisis became more and more evident, some nations began to show signs of economic decline and some of them started to think about abandoning Euro. Many economists argued that such a proposal was pure mad-ness, stupid and inconvenient if implemented. However, this idea increasingly began to attract attention over time. Numerous hasty and superficial analysis on the use started to flock, stimulating the spread of further opinions and publica-tions. The debate began to deepen and the contrast between the two schools of economic thought (the orthodox and the heterodox neo-classical post-Keynesian) has reinvigorated. The awareness about the seriousness of the matter, though, arose in England in 2011 when a competition with a prize of 250 thousand pounds was organized. The Wolfson prize was awarded to the best piece of aca-demic work which could provide a sensible answer to the question: “If member states leave the Economic and Monetary Union, what is the best way for the eco-nomic process to be managed to provide the soundest foundation for the future growth and prosperity of the current membership?”. The contest was won by Roger Bootle, with his “Leaving the Euro: a practical guide” which will be dis-cussed in the last chapter.
This thesis analyses the global financial and economic crisis from its origins en-tailed in the excesses of Wall Street, until the imbalances in Europe, through the opinions and studies of internationally renowned economists belonging to both schools of economic thought. Particular attention has been given to the economic policies of austerity in Europe and the main macroeconomic effects that these re-strictive policies have had on the member states restrictions, especially on pe-ripheral countries.
Consequently the focus will shifts to the Modern Monetary Theory as a theoretical alternative to interpret the reasons for the imbalances in the Euro area. The cen-tral aspect of this theory is the different interpretation of the deficit of the govern-ment budget on the basis of sectorial balance sheets and their mechanism of supporting the economy in the downturn.
To conclude, referring to the paper that won the Wolfson prize in 2011 a potential exit strategy with a main focus on Italy is described, addressing the more relevant legal and economic issues. As for economic aspects, a comparison is performed to determine which option was the best among the potential solutions to a long period of austerity or the ordered abandonment of the Euro. Finally, several probable drawbacks are listed that should give pause to the countries in question before making such a drastic choice.
18
Artman, Arvid. "Overcoming a financial crisis : A study of which factors predicts the impact of a rapid economic change." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-413825.
Abstract:
This paper investigates which factors best predict the economic state of a Swedish municipality after the 2008 crisis by constructing a linear model that regresses the change in the unemployment rate on a set of variables. The variables used for the model were from a dataset put together using data from a government service and were selected for the model using Bayesian information criterion. From this procedure, a model with six independent variables was estimated. The model’s statistics were examined, and the model was subsequentially tried against the five multiple linear regression assumptions. It was concluded that the model did not fulfil the assumption of homoscedasticity, and because of this, the dependent variable was transformed into a logarithm, thus yielding a log-lin model. This model ended up fulfilling every assumption and had higher explanatory power than the previous model. It is concluded that the variables that denote the number of newly registered businesses per 1000 residents, the share of residents with a high education, the fraction of net-commuters, the number of refugees received with a residence permit per 1000 residents, total net investments per person, the share of long term unemployed residents and the population size all prove significant when included together in a log-lin model of the change in the unemployment rate.
19
Marçal, Gonçalo Simões. "Uma crise das ideias económicas : uma perspectiva histórica." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/7737.
Abstract:
Mestrado em EconomiaEste trabalho propõe-se analisar a presente crise das ideias económicas a partir de uma perspectiva histórica. Para o efeito, proceder-se-á ao levantamento de algumas crises das ideias económicas ocorridas no passado, bem como a um resumo alargado dos factores que estão na origem da presente crise. A análise centra-se na dimensão teórica das crises em estudo e na sua resolução. Com o intuito de comparar as diferentes crises analisadas, procuraremos identificar mecanismos comuns à evolução das mesmas, bem como avaliar o estado de evolução da presente crise. Além disso, procuraremos determinar, de modo global, qual o papel desempenhado pelas crises das ideias económicas na evolução do conhecimento teórico-económico.
The purpose of the present work is to evaluate the current crisis of economic ideas from a historical standpoint. To that end, we will offer a brief survey of a few major crises of economic ideas occurred in the past, as well as an analysis of the different factors responsible for the present crisis. We will focus on the theoretical dimension of the crises and their solutions. Aiming to compare the different crises under analysis, we will try to identify mechanisms shared by all of them, and thereby to assess the current state of evolution of the present crisis. Moreover, on a larger scale, we will try to determine the role played by the crises of economic ideas within the evolution of theoretical knowledge.
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Edvinsson, Rodney. "Growth, Accumulation, Crisis : With New Macroeconomic Data for Sweden 1800-2000." Doctoral thesis, Stockholm : Almqvist & Wiksell International, 2005. http://www.diva-portal.org/diva/getDocument?urn_nbn_se_su_diva-378-1__fulltext.pdf.
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Rastapana, Songklod. "Three essays on financial crises." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2018. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/107782/.
Abstract:
This thesis analyses different aspects of financial crises with a focus on the role of pecuniary externalities. The topics explored in these essays are as follows: Chapter 1 provides background on issues of illiquidity and insolvency, and discusses how the two can interact. Chapter 2 studies pecuniary externalities in a `bank run' model where banks supply credit in the form of marketable securities. An aggregate liquidity shock, which triggers `fire sales' of such securities, can lead to insolvency when their value falls. So, in this type of model, a run on several banks can lead to insolvency driven pecuniary externalities. Chapter 3 explores three explanations of the U.S. subprime crisis; insolvency due to externalities, insolvency due to cheating, and illiquidity driven by panic. We argue that these narratives should be treated as complements (rather than as substitutes), with each playing an important role at different stages of the crisis. Chapter 4 studies the reversibility of shocks in a general equilibrium model of competitive markets with heterogeneous beliefs. I find that heterogeneous beliefs can amplify shocks; and, due to asymmetric adjustment of risky asset prices, they can also lead to systemic default when a group of optimistic agents exits the market.
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Zumbach, Klaus U. "The Role of Cluster Theory for Economic Development: Does Porter's Competitive Diamond Fail to Explain Dubai's Financial Cluster?" Bowling Green State University / OhioLINK, 2010. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1274974773.
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Ochiai, Hiroshi. "Essays on aggregate dynamics : externalities, liquidity and financial crises." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2012. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/12525/.
Abstract:
In the second chapter, we consider a mechanism of unstable fluctuations of aggregate investments by means of a global game approach. For this purpose, we extended a static global game to a dynamic one and paid attention to the effect of past aggregate investments on current profitability. Once this effect of aggregate investments between periods is taken into account, we can show that firms’ equilibrium strategies of investments become highly volatile over time. Moreover, long persistence of high or low economic activity can be explained by this model as well. The third chapter examines the effect of firms’ funding liquidity on macroeconomic dynamics and the role of liquidity markets. Here, we regard liquidity as firms’ accumulated net worth and introduce heterogeneity between firms with regard to their productivities and accumulation of their net worth. From our analysis, we show that under existence of externality between probabilities of liquidity shocks 1) the economy without liquidity markets is highly volatile. 2) Liquidity markets insulate the economy from liquidity shocks. 3) During an unstable economic environment, the economic activity can sharply drop in the existence of liquidity markets. The fourth chapter aims at showing risk shifting behaviour of financial intermediaries in the context of an economic growth model to analyze financial crises. In the low capitalized economy in which a rate of return on safe assets is high and households’ assets are scarce, investing in corporate sectors is more profitable than that of risky assets because the option value from investing in risky assets is low. However, as the economy grows, the rate of return on safe assets is decreasing whereas individual assets are increasing. In this situation, the option values of risky assets are increasing, which gives banks incentive to invest in risky assets leading some of the banks to be insolvent.
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Castro, Fernandez Juan Carlos. "Essays on financial crises, big recessions and slow recoveries." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2017. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/106445/.
Abstract:
In this thesis I presented two essays motivated by the observation that financial crises tend to be accompanied by deeper recessions and slower recoveries, partly due to debt burden (e.g. Reinhart & Rogoff, 2009; Hong and Tornell, 2005; Jordà, et al., 2013). In the first essay I evaluate this claim against the contrasting view that magnitude and persistence of recessions is rather the consequence of bigger and more persistent shocks (Stock & Watson, 2012). To do so, I compute recovery and recession paths through the estimation of impulse responses by local projections methods (Jordà, 2005). I found that the occurrence of financial crises is associated with more severe recessions only if the recession itself is big enough. But this effect disappears when the output loss caused by the recession is below the historical average. More importantly, neither the magnitude of the loss, nor the occurrence of financial crises, nor debt accumulation are associated with sluggish output growth during recoveries. It has also being suggested that expectations prior to the crisis help to determine the magnitude and length of recessions following financial crises (Chauvet and Guo, 2003; Cerra and Saxena, 2008). This and the role of pre-crisis dynamics is not properly reflected in standard DSGE models. In the second essay I account for the effect of pre- crisis dynamics and evaluate whether financial crises are different. To do so, I introduce optimism (in the form of unrealised news about capital quality) in an otherwise standard DSGE model with financial frictions. Under this framework, optimism generates investment–debt / boom-bust cycles accompanied by long recessions. I found that within this framework cycles associated with financial and technology news shocks are different regarding the responses of asset prices and banks’ net worth. Real variables respond similarly to unjustified financial or technological optimism.
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Martinez, Regina. "Essays on Financial Crises and Banking| International, Domestic and Systemic Approach." Thesis, The George Washington University, 2015. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3720089.
Abstract:
Most of the largest economic crises in recent history have been bank related. This dissertation contributes to improve our understanding of the causes and implications of financial crises because it approaches the study from a holistic perspective. It covers international, domestic, and systemic aspects that are necessary to understand the challenges imposed by financial liberalization, globalization, technological change, and interconnectivity. Chapter 1 provides the international perspective by examining the effect of global banking flows on credit booms; chapter 2 gives the domestic perspective by estimating the impact of financial crises on a country's long-run output growth; and chapter 3 zooms in further to get to the banking system level in order to study the propagation of shocks in a banking network endogenously generated by banks' profit maximizing decisions. Therefore, this dissertation accounts for the new challenges derived from the process of financial globalization and complex interconnections, and provides new venues for future analyses in this important research area.
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O'Keeffe, Mícheál. "Essays on the political economy of financial crises : causes, containment and resolution." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2014. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/3097/.
Abstract:
What role does politics play in financial crises and how does this affect economic outcomes? This thesis employs a political economy framework to examine the effect politics has on the causes, containment, and resolution of financial crises. The first paper examines the development of Irish financial regulation and supervision in the context of the politics of financial services policy. It argues that domestic politics prior to the crisis in Ireland played a significant contributing role in fostering a permissive banking environment which allowed the build up of financial imbalances. The second paper, with Christopher Gandrud, aims to understand why policymakers may end up choosing sub-optimal financial crisis containment strategies when taking decisions under uncertainty. We develop a signalling model of financial crisis management to enhance our understanding of the interactions between bureaucrats and decision-makers and to show how asymmetries of information can have significant implications for policy choice. The third paper, with Alessio Terzi, uses cross-country econometric evidence to examine the impact that political and party systems have on the fiscal cost of financial sector intervention. The results of our empirical analysis suggest that there is a systematic relationship between political economy factors and the fiscal cost of financial sector intervention in banking crises. We find that governments in presidential systems are associated with lower fiscal costs when managing banking crises. Looking further at crisis containment strategies, we show that these governments are are less likely to employ costly bank guarantees and bank recapitalisations which expose the state to significant contingent and direct fiscal liabilities, and are more likely to impose losses on depositors. The fourth paper analyses reform of the framework for crises management in the EU from a political economy perspective, following the 2007 financial and subsequent sovereign debt crisis. It explains how the limits of coordination and unprecedented public support led to the proposal for the establishment of a harmonised framework for bank resolution across the EU. However, the distributional consequences of financial sector support and the establishment of the Single Supervisory Mechanism led to deeper integration for euro area Member States and agreement on the Single Resolution Mechanism. It analyses in detail the negotiations on the financing structure for future resolution, decision-making procedures and crisis management tools and demonstrates how the power of certain Member States and distributive conflict with regard to legacy assets shaped the new architecture. It also highlights the important role the European Parliament played in the negotiations. This thesis makes a number of substantive contributions to political economy. The new theoretical and empirical findings will help foster a better understanding as to how governments may react to future financial crises and show what factors lead to and shape reform. It also has a number of policy implications. It stresses the need for a robust regulatory and supervisory architecture which creates the appropriate incentives for bureaucrats to provide timely and accurate information to decision-makers. It also highlights the need for a more intrusive approach to supervision.
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Ahmed, Najeer. "Addressing the Post-Keynesian Critique: Exchange Rate Determination with an Extended Mundell-Fleming Model." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2016. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1335.
Abstract:
The assertion that financial flows are the primary drivers of exchange rates may be considered as financial markets become increasingly large and sophisticated. However, the Post-Keynesian critique leaves little room for the real economy to impact exchange rates. This paper aims to extend the Mundell-Fleming model to address the Post-Keynesian critique of mainstream models, by incorporating wealth effects, expectations, and Taylor-rule interest targeting. Discussion of significant financial events affecting the USDJPY exchange rate finds that wealth effects are significant considerations, and that the real economy cannot be discounted completely. Empirical results find that the real interest rate is a significant factor in exchange rate determination, tying into the discussion over the relationship between savings and consumption.
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Arguile, Wayne Peter. "Performance of defensive shares on the JSE during financial crisis: evidence from analysis of returns and volatility." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002736.
Abstract:
This study analyses whether historically defensive sectors on the JSE have – with respect to the market – proven to be defensive during the recent global financial crisis. By withstanding the shocks of market volatility, defensive industries (such as pharmaceuticals and consumer staples) are renowned for their consistent performance throughout the business cycle. Using daily data for the period 2000–2009, the study compares the descriptive statistics of sector returns before and during the crisis. The volatility of each sector relative to the market index is calculated using the CAPM beta and a simplified volatility ratio. The same comparison is extended to the conditional volatilities of each of the sectors, which is estimated using the GARCH model and two of its extensions: the EGARCH and GJR GARCH models. While no sector experienced a positive mean return during the financial crisis, Healthcare, Consumer Goods, Consumer Services and Industrials all proved less volatile than the market. Surprisingly, Telecommunications proved more volatile than the market and experienced leverage effects during the financial crisis. Since the timing of a recession is difficult to predict, defensive securities were found to be a useful investment tool for protection against adverse movements in the stock market.
29
Granberg, Magnus. "Revolten som uteblev? : Kollektiva aktioner i Sverige 1980-1995." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Sociologiska institutionen, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-58476.
Abstract:
The study explores collective action in Sweden between 1980 to 1995 using time-series data from the European Protest and Coercion Database. In spite of severe hardship during the crisis of the early 1990s, Swedish strike-rates declined. However, contention merely shifted from workplaces into the streets; there was indeed a protest movement against austerity, as shown by a series of large demonstrations, and some riots, between 1989 and 1993. Further analysis indicates this movement faded as it was increasingly chanelled into the electoral campaign of the labor pary; having won the 1994 election, the organised labor movement no longer had an interest in sustaining the protest movement against austerity.
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Lim, Chee Ming. "Noise-augmented asset pricing models : evidence from the Greater China stock markets during two major financial crises." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2017. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/46769/.
Abstract:
The main contribution of the thesis is the construction of noise-augmented asset pricing models. These models are the extension of Fama & French Three Factor Model (1992,1993) and subsequent improved version of Five Factor Model (2015), by adding a behavourial factor - investor sentiment (INVSENT). To the author’s knowledge, this is one of the first attempts to quantitatively reconcile risk based theory and behavioral finance by developing parsimonious asset pricing models for explaining value premium phenomenon, especially in the context of financial crises. Little research has been carried out on the value premium phenomenon over a short horizon during high volatility period. Previous empirical results show that over the long run, value stocks outperformed growth stocks, with considerable firm size effect. There are two competing schools of thoughts that explain the value premium phenomenon - risk based theories and behavior models. However, the occurrence of the Global Financial Crisis and Eurozone Crisis has opened a new and alternative window to study the value premium phenomenon and further examine the underlying reasoning. Firstly, in examining the risk and return relationship of value stocks and growth stocks of the Greater China stock markets during the two major financial crises, it show that growth stocks outperformed value stocks during both the Global Financial Crisis and Euro Zone Crisis in the China and Hong Kong stock markets. However, value stocks outperformed the growth stocks in the Taiwan stock market during the Global Financial Crisis and Euro Zone Crisis. The small size effect did not really diminish in the Greater China stock markets during two major financial crises. Also, standard risk measures – standard deviation and Sharpe ratio do not fully explain the risk and return relationship of these two stock selection strategies. Secondly, in explaining value premium under the Banko, Conover and Jensen Model (2006), mixed results are observed. During the Global Financial Crisis, industry book-to-market ratio is a strong signal in the China and Hong Kong stock markets, whereas the firm book-to-market ratio is a strong signal in the Hong Kong and Taiwan stock markets. Further analysis at the industrial level has revealed that industry book-to-market ratio is a more prominent factor than the firm book-to-market ratio. During the Euro Zone Crisis, the firm level book-to-market ratio is significant the Hong Kong stock markets, even after controlling for market capitalisation and beta. The study under the Fama and French Three Factor Model (1992, 1993) has shown that the three risk measures - market risk premium (MRP) factor, SMB factor and HML factor are semi-strong signals in explaining value premium in the Greater China stock markets during the two major financial crises. Furthermore, the investigation under the Fama and French Five Factor Model (2015) has shed light that the five risk measures - market risk premium (MRP) factor, SMB factor, HML factor, profitability factor (RMW) and investment factor (CMA) are semi-strong signals. Considering the values of adjusted R-squared and varying signals of the risk measures, it is argued that risk factors of the three asset pricing models do not fully explain value premium phenomenon in the Greater China stock markets during the two major financial crises. Thirdly, the study under the noise-augmented capital asset pricing models reveals that the investor sentiment (INVSENT) factor is a statistically significant determinant of the stock returns in the Hong Kong stock markets during the Euro Zone Crisis. The investor sentiment (INVSENT) factor is only weakly significant or insignificant statistically in the China and Taiwan stock markets during these two financial crises. For the risk measures in the Fama and French’s models, market risk premium (MRP) factor, SMB factor, HML factor, profitability factor (RMW) and investment factor (CMA) are semi-strong signals. The adjusted R-squared values of the noise-augmented asset pricing models are higher than the original Fama and French models. The findings of this research are expected to provide a fresh insight to the investment managers in the asset allocation and portfolio management decision. The practical implication is that when investing during the period of financial crises, one has to firstly, be selectively in stocks and hence businesses involved, relying on the principles embodied in the risk based model – Fama and French Five Factor Model. Then, be aware of the mispricing caused by the investor sentiment. The mispricing may present opportunities for contrarian investment strategy.
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Jackson, Jessie Hyman. "Strategies Church Financial Leaders Use for Financial Sustainability during Economic Crises." Thesis, Walden University, 2018. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=13422045.
Abstract:
Church financial leaders were affected by the economic crisis after the 2008 recession. In a 2009 group study conducted nationwide with church financial leaders, 57% stated that the economy had a negative effect on their church budgets. The purpose of this qualitative multiple case study was to explore successful strategies that some church financial leaders used to ensure financial sustainability during economic crises. Resource dependence theory was the conceptual framework. Data were collected from 6 church financial leaders at 4 churches in the northeastern region in the United States; church financial leaders were selected through purposeful sampling to participate in semistructured interviews. Data were also collected from church documents, such as financial records and budget statements. These data were analyzed to identify emerging themes using Yin’s 5-phase process: compiling, disassembling, reassembling (and arraying), interpreting, and concluding. The 3 themes that emerged from the data analysis were (a) provide strategies to acquire external resources, (b) specify plans to establish internal strategic factors, and (c) provide strategies to improve financial and strategic management. Findings and recommendations of the study could contribute to positive social change by providing church financial leaders with successful strategies to ensure financial sustainability during economic crises and by increasing church revenue and improving social programs, which help improve the needs of staff, members, and people in the community.
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Dawood, Mary Hany A. K. "The challenge of predicting financial crises : modelling and evaluating early warning systems." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2016. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/6617/.
Abstract:
The main purpose of constructing "Early Warning Systems" (EWSs) for financial crises is to provide policy makers with some lead time to take pre-emptive actions that would help avoid, or at least mitigate, the damages of an approaching crisis. Accordingly, this study empirically evaluates and compares the effectiveness of the econometric models developed so far to construct EWSs. In addition, a more accurate (dynamic-recursive) forecasting technique is developed to generate better out-of-sample warning signals for currency, banking, and sovereign debt crises in the different regions of the world. The empirical analysis shows that the predictive performance of the EWS is significantly improved when using simple pooled models that account for the heterogeneity of the signalling indicators across the different regions. Moreover, including the entire crisis period in the sample outperforms the more common practice of dropping post-crisis-onset periods or using a multinomial specification of the crisis variable. In addition, the findings reveal that our dynamic-recursive technique provides more accurate out-of-sample forecasts for logit models. Finally, the dynamic signal extraction approach is recommended for policy makers who value avoiding financial crises at all costs, while the binomial logit model is more suitable for less conservative policy makers who consider the economic and social costs of false alarms.
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Samman, Amin Thomas. "Re-imagining the crises of global capital." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2013. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/3970/.
Abstract:
This thesis explores the imaginary dimensions of economic crisis through a study of the interface between practices of historical representation and processes of social construction. Its core argument is that a sense of history cannot be disentangled from the phenomena that it strives to apprehend. As a result, there can be no fixed and objective relation between the evolution of global capitalism and its long history of crises. Instead, the very intelligibility of both ‘crisis’ and ‘history’ is produced through an iterated telescoping of time, whereby more or less distant events and episodes are grasped together in ways that lend meaning to those of the present. This argument is taken forward via an in-depth and quasi-historical analysis of the 2008 crisis. Focusing on how past crises figure within the pronouncements of international policymaking organisations and the commentary of the global financial press between 2007 and 2009, it develops a typology of different practices of historical representation and the various interpretive functions they are capable of performing. In so doing, it makes a theoretical contribution to the constructivist and cultural political economy literatures on the discursive negotiation of crisis.
34
Tsopanakis, Andreas. "Essays on financial stability, systemic risk and the spillover effects of financial crises." Thesis, University of Glasgow, 2014. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/5496/.
Abstract:
This thesis investigates in depth several aspects of economic activity through an aggregated metric, which aims to account for the inherent distressful characteristics of the financial system. This work is strongly motivated by the extraordinary evolution of the financial and economic landscape and the induced fragility within its foundations, especially during the last years. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the theoretical considerations on the topics discussed in this thesis. Additionally, the motivations and a brief presentation of the thesis contents are provided. Chapter 2 empirically investigates the leading indicator properties of the aggregate systemic risk indices to the real economy. In order to do that, I construct a series of financial stress indices for 25 countries. The countries are bundled into three groups (OECD, Asian, Latin American countries) and, apart from the national indexes, regional and a global index are computed. In order to do this, a number of variables from the banking sector, financial and capital markets and the foreign exchange market of each country, have been used for the implementation of these indicators. The indexes are successful early warning indicators, accurately capturing previous financial stress periods, while the financial turmoil of 2007-2009 is, without doubt, the most severe one. Forecasting exercises indicate the improved ability of indices-enhanced models to successfully predict the evolution of economic activity. Chapter 3 investigates the interrelations and financial interconnections of the Eurozone economies. Financial stress indices are constructed for, both, countries and their four most important financial markets (banking, money, equity and bond). Using VAR models, a number of innovative conclusions are reached, such that: 1) not all peripheral countries (and especially Greece and Portugal) should be blamed for the crisis exacerbation 2) there is clear evidence of stronger interdependencies between banking and bond markets and 3) a degree of segregation (in terms of financial stress interdependence) between peripheral and core Eurozone economies. The last essay aims to the deeper empirical investigation of potential crosscovariances and spillover effects between the Eurozone economies and financial markets. Full, asymmetric GARCH-BEKK models are estimated, both on a market (or 3 country) wide level and, then, with the full spectrum of Euro Area markets. In other words, we complete an empirical examination, both “within” and “between” Eurozone economies and markets. The results reveal a number of interesting insights: on country wide level, there is strong volatility transmission channel from the most heavily hit, from the crisis, economies towards the rest. Additionally, the crucial importance and role on this transmission from the banking and bond markets is underlined. Contrary to common wisdom, Greece is not the main propagator of volatility uncertainty, while it is between the most important receivers of volatility risk. The same holds for other peripheral economies, while the importance of money market is also evident in the large, “between”, empirical approach.
35
Li, Xiaojun. "Financial stability of the banking sector - interbank contagion, market discipline, and macroeconomic roots of crises." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2009. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/953/.
Abstract:
This thesis conducts three different empirical studies and finds that some of the pre-2007 risk assessment model could underestimate the systemic risk of the banking sector and justifies an overhaul. First, it simulates the contagion impact of the UK interbank market. Subject to a number of assumptions (netting agreement, seniority, etc), it finds that the contagion is much severer if the simulation uses consolidated data than using unconsolidated data. Second, the thesis tests whether the riskiness of banks can be mitigated by peer interbank monitoring. Applying to UK market, the thesis finds little evidence of market discipline. The results are attributed to the lenders’ assumption of “too-big-to-fail” and the shortness of loan maturity. Last, the thesis investigates whether banking sector difficulties are preceded by macroeconomic distress. In contrast to most existing studies, the thesis finds that economy still thrives in the “pre-crisis” in terms of increasing GDP growth and the recession is generally associated with the “post-crisis” period. The inconsistency of results is very likely due to imprecise crisis identification of earlier studies which identify crises too late on the basis of “event studies”.
36
Ramos, Marcelo Valença. "Releitura sistêmico-teórica das relações entre direito, política e economia: a crise de 2008 como ponto de inflexão para a emergência do constitucionalismo societal." Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, 2014. http://www.bdtd.uerj.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=8615.
Abstract:
O trabalho busca na teoria dos sistemas de Niklas Luhmann, tal como desenvolvida por Gunther Teubner, Marcelo Neves e outros doutrinadores, elementos para explicar as relações entre os subsistemas jurídico, político e econômico na sociedade contemporânea. Com base nas ferramentas teóricas obtidas, revisa o conceito de constituição econômica como a relação de acoplamento estrutural entre o direito e a economia, e a Constituição do Estado como a relação de acoplamento estrutural entre o direito e a política. As crises econômicas são então explicadas pelas tendências inflacionárias na produção de símbolos e pelos choques entre racionalidades sistêmicas parciais. A crise de 2008 consolida a constatação de que a globalização restringe a capacidade de influência da política e do direito sobre o sistema econômico desterritorializado. Em vista disso, propõe-se a adoção da teoria do constitucionalismo societal de Teubner como proposta para a democracia no século XXI; através dela, é possível reconhecer a constitucionalização no interior de cada subsistema social e o desenvolvimento de foros de razão pública internos, nos quais a política pode ser desenvolvida de forma autônoma em relação à política institucionalizada do Estado. Finalmente, vê-se como o combate à crise econômica invariavelmente redesenha os papéis dos Poderes de Estado, reconhecendo certa liberdade ao Executivo, embora isso não signifique ausência de quaisquer freios e contrapesos.The presentwork seeks elements in Niklas Luhmanns systems theory as developed by Gunther Teubner and Marcelo Neves, amongst others to explain the interrelations between the legal, economic and political social subsystems in current society. Based on the theoretical tools gathered, it analyzes the concept of economic constitution as the structural coupling between law and economics, and the State Constitution as a structural coupling between law and politics. Economic crisis is then explained by the inflationary tendencies in the production of symbols and by the conflicts between partial rationalities. The crisis of 2008 strengthened the conclusion that globalization restrains politics and laws capacities to influence the international economic system. In view of that, it is suggested the adoption of Teubners societal constitutionalism as a proposal for XXI centurys democracy. Societal constitutionalism allows the recognition of internal constitutions in each social subsystem and the development of internal public reasoning institutions, where politics can be developed autonomously from State Politics. Finally, the last chapter considers how the measures against economic crises invariably redefine the roles of the Executive, the Legislative and the Judiciary, recognizing some freedom to the Executive, although such freedom does not mean the absence of any checks and balances.
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Eng, Richard. "Exploring Investors' Decision Making Processes During the 2008 Financial Crisis Using Epstein's Cognitive Experiential Self-Theory| A Multiple-case Study." Thesis, Northcentral University, 2015. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3669103.
Abstract:
A longstanding controversy in financial economics is whether investors' rational forces or their emotional responses govern the asset pricing of the financial markets. Some psychology researchers use dual- process models to understand peoples' information processing. The problem is that some investors allow cognitive biases which operate quickly and automatically in the System 1 domain, to affect their decisions rather than respond deliberatively and rationally which are ascribed to the System 2 domain. The purpose of this study was to explore how and why investors, when faced with extreme stress impelled during the 2008 Financial Crisis, yielded to either System 1 or System 2 axis decision-making. Without evaluating the role that cognitive biases play in information processing, investors will not understand why they make inauspicious automatic decisions or grasp the steps that could help avoid realized losses in their stock portfolio. This qualitative research consisted of a multiple-case study that included in-depth semi-structured interviews of 12 investors who had at least $1 million invested in stocks and bonds and triangulation data analysis. The research findings indicated that stock market literacy and risk profiling are foundations for sound investing. When faced with a financial crisis, some investors displayed cognitive biases such as nervousness, worry, and fear that led to myopic loss aversion that caused them to sell their entire stock portfolio or reallocated into more conservative, less risky bonds. Some investors with no emotions and higher stock market literacy considered the financial crisis as a blip in the long-term upward trend performance of stocks and viewed the financial crisis as an opportunity to buy more stocks. For those investors that displayed emotions because of the financial crisis, emotion regulation strategies helped them make more controlled and deliberative investment decisions. Nevertheless, the decisions made by investors may be satisficing because of peoples' bounded rationality, the inherent information processing limitation of the human mind. The specific role of emotion in the duality of information processing was undetermined because the crisis evolved over time rather than a singular event. It is possible that quantitative determination of stock market literacy and the application of Epstein's Rational-Experiential Questionnaire and personality tests including satisfaction questions could shed further information on the dual-process mechanisms.
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Barton, Evan P. "The Messenger and The Crisis during World War I and The Red Scare, 1917-21." Ohio University / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou1307624298.
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von, Seth Carl Johan. "Safeguarding Free Trade in Recessions : - A Game-Theoretic Interpretation of the Multilateral Policy Response to the 2008 Crisis." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-144966.
Abstract:
I propose a simple approach to trade cooperation in economic shocks. A two-country, two-good trade model provides a stage setting. In a dynamic model, international demand for traded goods is allowed to be subject to sudden shocks. Numerical simulations predict that negative, sustained demand shocks may spark trade wars. Negative demand shocks that are short relative to the period it takes for governments to detect violations render instead incentives in free trade agreements more robust. I find that the multilateral policy response to the 2008 crisis - to temporarily enhance multilateral information mechanisms - may have worked to strengthen this effect.I den här uppsatsen analyseras incitament i handelsavtal under ekonomiska chocker utifrån grundläggande spelteori. Jag finner att långa lågkonjunkturer påverkar incitamenten på ett sätt som kan få parterna att frångå avtalet och starta ett tullkrig. Korta lågkonjunkturer stärker i stället incitamenten i avtalet. Jag argumenterar för att brytpunkten mellan en tullkrigsutlösande lågkonjunktur och en incitamentstärkande lågkonjunktur kan regleras genom att tillfälligt stärka informationsmekanismerna kring avtalet och att de multilaterala åtgärderna i krisens spår kan ha haft den effekten.
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Valle-Flôr, Maria Amélia Monteiro de Sacadura Garcia. "Sovereign debt crisis and the use of the community method in the making of EU responses (2010-2011) : the six-pack case on economic governance reform." Doctoral thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/9851.
Abstract:
Doutoramento em Estudos de DesenvolvimentoIn early 2010, the weak design of the Economic and Monetary Union and the tools for economic governance provided by the Treaty of Lisbon proved to be inadequate for preventing or resolving the European sovereign debt crisis. Up to December2011, the EU response comprised legislative files aiming to reform economic governance and the establishment of financial supervision and stabilization mechanisms. Drawing on new institutionalism theories, namely rational choice and historical institutionalism, this research’s main objective is to investigate the use of the Community method in the responses to the EUcrisis. Some of the responses, found within the EU framework, suchasthe ‘SixaPack’adopted in 2011 to streng then the Union´s economic governance, saw the Commission´s role as formal agenda setter- the key feature of the Community method-being challenged by the set up of a Task Force presided by the President of the European Council Van Rompuy. Other responses, found through intergovernmental agreements, are perceived to ascribe a much more central role to supranational institutions like the European Commission and the European Court of Justice, strengthening this way the Community method. The focus on a qualitative case study of economic governance reform highlights the role of the European Parliament in the ‘SixaPack’ legislative process and builds on a novel conceptualization of the Principal-Agent model. Theanalysis covers not only the ‘SixaPack’ agenda setting phase, but also the formal and informal policy-making stage, where most of the decisions were found in the so called ‘trialogues’.
No início de 2010, tanto a fragilidade do desenho da União Económica e Monetária como os instrumentos de governação económica previstos no Tratado de Lisboa, mostraram não ser aptos em prevenir ou resolver a crise Europeia da dívida soberana. Até Dezembro 2011, a resposta Europeia compreendeu um conjunto de dossiers legislativos com vista a reformar a governação económica e o estabelecimento de mecanismos de supervisão financeira e de estabilização.Tendoporbaseasteoriasdo novo institucionalismo, nomeadamente o institucionalismo da escolha racional e o institucionalismo histórico, o principal objectivo desta investigação é analisar o método Comunitário nas respostas à crise da União Europeia. Em algumas dessas respostas, dentro do enquadramento legal Europeu, tal como o ‘SixaPack’ adotado em 2011 para fortalecer a governação económica, a Comissão Europeia viu o seu poder formal de iniciar legislação a principal característica do método Comunitário a ser confrontado com a constituição de um grupo de trabalho presidido pelo Presidente do Conselho Europeu Van Rompuy. Outras respostas, no âmbito de acordos intergovernamentais, terão atribuído um papel central às instituições Europeias como a Comissão e o Tribunal Europeu de Justiça, o que se traduziu num fortalecimento do método Comunitário. A escolha de um caso de estudo qualitativo sobre a reforma da governação económica, pretende sublinhar o papel desempenhado pelo Parlamento Europeu no processo legislativo do ‘SixaPack’. Para o efeito, foi desenvolvida uma nova conceptualização teórica do modelo do Principal-Agente. A análise cobre não somente a fase da iniciação legislativa do ‘SixaPack’, mas também Os processos formais e informais de tomada de decisão, nos chamados ‘trílogos’.
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Stroud, Ian Cecil. "Morality's Alpha: A Case Study Determining Whether Morality Must Be the Basis of Capitalism." Walsh University Honors Theses / OhioLINK, 2020. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=walshhonors1588161944422878.
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Widmaier, Wesley William. "A constructivist theory of international monetary relations monetary understandings, state interests in cooperation, and the construction of crises (1929-2001) /." Access restricted to users with UT Austin EID, 2001. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/utexas/fullcit?p3036613.
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Ozkan, Kadir. "Theoretising the foundational concepts of the process of financial crimes in comparative economic systems : an attempt in grounded theory." Thesis, Durham University, 2014. http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/10934/.
Abstract:
Financial crimes have become one of the most destructive types of crime in post-industrial societies in terms of economic and financial consequences. While the importance of financial institutions in the modern economic system cannot be negated, their critical function in the society with their enormous powers brings about many questions, especially in relation to systems of checks and balances. The increasing number of adverse examples in the last decades provide evidence for the enormous negative consequences of corporate failures resulting from shortcomings in the checks and balances. This study, hence, is motivated by the current financial failures, and aims at exploring and examining financial crimes in terms of the process of becoming a financial white-collar criminal in various financial systems, namely capitalist, socialist and Islamic systems, as well as exploring the vulnerability and propensity of each system in relation to financial crimes. In addition, this study, departing from the shortcomings of Eurocentric understanding and referring to cultural and religious norms, aims to re-conceptualise some of the concepts, subcategories and dimensions with the objective of developing and theorising an improved version of rational choice theory in criminology for a better comparison. In fulfilling the aims of the study, a discourse analysis approach through a deconstruction method is utilised to locate and identify the underpinnings of the existing theoretical frameworks through comparative case study as a method, by comparing extreme cases of market/capitalist finance, socialist/transitional and Islamic/moral finance. In addition, grounded theory is used as a method to construct a modified version of the existing theories by using a number of formal codes such as ‘motivation’, ‘environment’, ‘target’, ‘guardian’ as concepts and ‘opportunity spaces’, ‘real, perceived selves’, ‘ideal and feared’, ‘need and guarding gaps’, ‘haste’, ‘expectations’, ‘deviance’, ‘crime motivation’, ‘act of crime’ etc. as subcategories and ‘material’, ‘social’ and ‘moral’ as dimensions. Such an attempt is rationalised on the ground that the current criminology theories are unfortunately linear theories and they do not make decisions about a regular person. Therefore, there is no crime theory that is confident enough to receive a regular person and make dynamic, relativist, complex analysis about them in prospect, depending on the changing conditions of the inner and outer world of the individual, unlike the ‘complex theory of crime’ produced by this research through grounded theory. A comparative analysis to order the financial systems according to their vulnerability to financial crimes is also provided in this study using the ‘opportunity spaces’ concept of the grounded theory which develops the classical ‘opportunity’ argument of the rational choice theory to almost a small theory of opportunity. This analysis suggests that the most vulnerable financial system to financial crime is the market based financial system, which is followed by socialist/transitional and Islamized financial systems. The comparative analysis of the study on crime propensities of financial systems also confirms the literature on economic and financial systems that argues that the financial systems are converging despite their strong and distinctive ontological and epistemological differences and capacities to enrich and improve each other. The theoretical model developed in this study reveals that crime motivation is only an extension of ordinary motivation and has a dynamic nature. Dynamic in both the micro world of the individual and his/her close social/physical environment and also the macro environment in terms of the wider space of political-economy and social culture. This study fills an important gap in criminology literature which has been sought for decades since the 1970s. Indeed, the resultant theory in this study is unique in its approach because it is a micro-founded macro theory, unlike all the criminology theories which have either micro (biological, psychological theories, control theories) or macro (i.e. symbolic interactions, social bonds theory, life-course theory, conflict theory) foundations.
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Viegas, Eduardo. "A complexity evolutionary theory for the emergence of financial and economic crises : synchronising Gould and Minsky through von Neumann and Mandelbrot." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/44548.
Abstract:
A theoretical complexity framework to analyse the fundamental business dynamics of financial markets and economies is developed through coherently coupling selected aspects of Gould's evolutionary theory concepts to the essence of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis. This framework is grounded, or articulated in quantitative terms, through mathematical methods inspired at its core by von Neumann's automata theory, and by Maldenbrot's fractal geometry. By consistently applying such framework to the analysis of the emerging features within the financial markets and economies through a range of different and diverse datasets, markets, business dynamics and research problems, an embryonic Complexity Evolutionary Theory on Financial and Economic Crises ('CETFEC') is developed. CETFEC characterises financial markets and economies as complex systems, whereby the emergence of financial crises is regarded as the natural consequence of fundamental evolutionary processes that lead relevant agents to adapt to different environmental conditions. As a result, the theory has a marked distinction that it does not pre-define, categorise or exercise a level of judgement about the behaviour of the agents within the system. CETFEC aims to identify the signals that lead the existence of the necessary conditions for the emergence of crises, rather than trying to predict the timing of crises. As a result, the nature of shocks may be either or both, endogenous and exogenous. Fundamentally it holds that the understanding of the distribution and the diversity of the agents provide essential signals to the resilience of the system.
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Sotomayor, Hector. "He_rtland: The Violence of Neoliberalism." Scholar Commons, 2015. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/6027.
Abstract:
Perhaps, under the consciousness of today, “neoliberalism” has defined our world during the previous and current centuries more than any other socioeconomic system. But the evolution of this ideology, which initially aimed to enhance, or rather, reinvent capitalism and individual freedom, has, in essence, induced an unrecognized problem. I argue that neoliberalism is the catalyst for much of the hostility in this globalized society where tensions and poverty are casualties of individual and corporate prosperity. Because of this revelation, I argue that neoliberalism inadvertently instills violence that is both unseen and gendered. In order to formulate my argument, I introduce a historical chronology to the ideological origins of neoliberalism and how it manifested its way to its socioeconomic prominence. I then concentrate my attention to neoconservatism, most notably, Reaganism, with the year 1984, which I feel is the official christening of neoliberalism. From that year, I bring forth, three films about the crisis of farming in the 20th century, Country, Places in the Heart, and The River. Through these “farm crisis films,”which centers their themes around pastoral virtues, I argue that the violence conveyed in these films critiques neoliberalism. On the surface, these films demonstrate violence through an invisible and unrecognizable antagonist. But at the heart of this violence is a gendered angle that has much more to do with neoliberalism than with feminist debates. The gendered violence of neoliberalism is, in actuality, linked to the characters’ struggle to maintain some sense of autonomy, but this possibility is always uncertain because of their failure to recognize their inevitable interdependencies.
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Pavli, Antonia. "Creative Disability Classification Systems : The case of Greece, 1990-2015." Doctoral thesis, Örebro universitet, Institutionen för hälsovetenskaper, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-57830.
Abstract:
Disability classification systems belong to the core of states’ social/disability policies through which persons with disabilities are classified as eligible or ineligible for having access to disability allowances. The study of disability classification systems has stimulated the interest of several scholars from the broader area of disability studies. Either by conducting comparative studies between different states and describing the similarities and differences of these systems around the world or by conducting studies focusing on the politics and semantics in the development of disability classification systems in specific states, all studies have shown a pluralism in the systems for assessing and certifying disability. In Greece, the development of disability classification systems for social welfare reasons emerged as a controversy that lasted for almost twenty years. One factor that strengthened the controversy was the outbreak of the economic crisis late in 2009 followed by the announcement by the governmental authorities of the enactment of a new system for assessing and certifying disability as part of the austeritydriven policies that the Greek state would enact for facing the consequences of the economic crisis. Drawing on an interdisciplinary approach, the overall aim of this study is to describe and analyze the enactment of disability classification systems in the context of Greek social policy from 1990 to 2015. For the collection of empirical material, a qualitative research method was employed, consisting of interviews, written material, and newspaper articles. The main findings of this thesis are: I) the involvement of the political parties in the development of the systems for certifying and assessing disability; II) the involvement of the disability movement in policymaking; III) the “creative” use of statistics by governmental authorities for the enactment of disability/social policies; IV) how the concept of “disability fraud” has been constructed as a “threat” to the society; and V) the vulnerability of disability classification systems in times of austerity.
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Vargas, Cáceres Nancy, and Lam Kelly Hiunyinh Wu. "El efecto del efficient market theory sobre las decisiones de los asesores financieros : ¿por qué creemos que somos mejores inversionistas de lo que de verdad somos?" Bachelor's thesis, Universidad del Pacífico, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/11354/2657.
Abstract:
Después de la Crisis Financiera de 2008, han surgido diversas investigaciones que buscan explicar las causas, consecuencias y las lecciones alrededor de este suceso. De manera específica, la comunidad académica ha tomado interés en revisar la condición de este mercado. El presente trabajo pretende evidenciar que, tomando el Crush 2008, los asesores financieros son capaces de generar ganancias solo en el corto plazo, debido a que el mercado de inversiones es eficiente. Para tal efecto, se ha revisado la literatura y el consenso académico para la Crisis de 2008. Específicamente, en base a lo expuesto por Minsky (1992) sobre la eficiencia del mercado financiero se concluye que no es posible “ganarle” al mercado de manera sostenida. Es decir, los momentos donde los inversionistas son cautelosos, conducen a que el policy maker instaure medidas que lleven a dinamizar el mercado y este a su vez a generar booms de inversiones que estallarán en una Crisis Financiera. Puntualmente sobre lo ocurrido en el 2008, los resultados de la crisis Puntocom de 2000 y los sucesos terroristas de 2001 condujeron a que el Federal Reserve System baje la Tasa de Interés de Referencia a 1%. Dadas estas condiciones se generaron incentivos para el desarrollo de nuevos instrumentos financieros con el fin de que todo aquel que desee adquirir una obligación con los bancos, sin considerar su condición crediticia, sea capaz de hacerlo. En esta coyuntura inició la Crisis Financiera como medida para que el mercado vuelva al equilibrio general.
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Menzies, John Alexander. "Sovereign contingent liabilities : a perspective on default and debt crises." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2014. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:c25e36be-bd42-4a0f-9af6-42d17f87424f.
Abstract:
Chapters 2-3: A global games approach to sovereign debt crises The first chapters present a model that investigates the risks involved when a fiscal authority attempts to roll-over a stock of debt and there is the potential for coordination failure by investors. A continuum of investors, after receiving signals about the authority's willingness to repay, decides whether to roll-over the stock of debt. If an insufficient proportion of investors participates, the authority defaults. With one fiscal authority, private information results in a deterministic outcome. When a public signal is available, the model behaves in a similar manner to a sunspot model. In line with much of the global games literature, improving public information has an ambiguous effect on welfare. Finally, the model is extended to include a second fiscal authority, which captures a similar sunspot result and illustrates the potential for externalities in fiscal policy. Lower debt in the less indebted authority can push a more indebted authority into crisis. Lower debt makes the healthier authority relatively more attractive, which causes the investors to treat the heavily indebted authority more conservatively. In certain circumstances, this is sufficient to cause a coordination failure. Chapter 4: A debt game with correlated information This chapter models of debt roll-over where a continuum of investors receives correlated signals on whether a debtor is solvent or insolvent. The investors face a collective action problem: a sufficient proportion of investors must agree to participate in the debt roll-over for it to be a success. If an insufficient proportion of investors participates in the deal, the debtor will default. The game has a unique switching strategy, which results in global uncertainty being preserved. The ex ante distribution of play (conditional on the true solvency of the debtor) follows a Vasicek credit distribution. The ex ante probability of a debt crisis is affected by the exogenous model parameters. Of particular interest is the observation that increasing private noise unambiguously reduces the probability of a debt crisis. Unsurprisingly, increasing the fiscal space or return on debt also decreases the probability of a crisis. Chapter 5: Bailouts and politics The final chapter examines the political-economic equilibrium in a two-period model with overlapping generations and a financial sector, which is inspired by the model in Tabellini (1989). The public policy is chosen under majority rule by the agents currently alive. It demonstrates that the bailout policy adopted in the second period has important effects on the bank's financing decisions in the first period. By adopting a riskier financing regime (i.e. higher leverage) in the first period, the older generation can extract consumption from the younger generation in the second period. Sovereign backstops of the financial sector are state-contingent: they can appear costless for long periods of time but eventually result in a socialization of private-sector debt. It is this mechanism that makes implementing capital requirements costly to investors yet beneficial to the younger generation. The model also highlights two important issues: (i) bank capital is endogenous and (ii) proposed resolution mechanisms must be politically credible. It suggests that a major benefit of increasing and narrowing equity-capital requirements or increasing liquidity ratios is that they are implemented ex ante and therefore available either to absorb losses in the event of a crisis or to reduce the possibility of large drops in asset values. Finally, this chapter also provides a structure by which to interpret the stylized facts of Calomiris et al. (2014): that more populist political institutions are associated with more fragile financial systems.
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Adams, Gator. "Is Silence The Answer?" Scholarship @ Claremont, 2017. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1606.
Abstract:
This study examines the relationship between company management guidance, and ex-ante crash risk over the duration of 2008(Jan 2006-Dec 2009) financial crisis using the implied volatility skew, which is based upon ex-ante volatility implied by the pricing model developed by Black-Scholes (1973). The study finds that over the duration of this crisis period, management guidance decreases with a rise in ex-ante crash risk. Further, the study provides evidence on the relationship of management guidance and earnings volatility, and how that is affected by a firm's industry product concentration based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) score.
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Spargoli, Fabrizio. "Three essays in banking : theory and empirics." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/117854.
Abstract:
This thesis revolves around financial instability and banking regulation. The first chapter examines whether the disclosure of information about banks maximizes welfare in times of crisis. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we demonstrate that transparency is optimal only if banks' distress can be efficiently resolved. The second chapter provides an explanation for the observed inability of market participants to assess banks' solvency in times of crisis. We demonstrate that banks' incentives to understate losses lead to an equilibrium where no information is available in the market in times of crisis, and this makes banks take excessive risk ex-ante. The third chapter, coauthored with Philipp Ager, provides an empirical analysis of the effects of liberalization on bank competition and bank failures. Using the relaxation of bank entry barriers in the 19th century US as a case study, we find that liberalization increases bank entry by 11% and bank failures by 2.6%.Aquesta tesi tracta sobre la inestabilitat financera i la regulació bancària. El primer capítol examina si la divulgació d'informació sobre els bancs maximitza el benestar en temps de crisi. Contràriament a la saviesa convencional, es demostra que la transparència és òptima només si els problemes dels bancs es poden resoldre de manera eficient. El segon capítol ofereix una explicació de la incapacitat observada dels participants del mercat per avaluar la solvència dels bancs en temps de crisi. Es demostra que els incentius dels bancs a subestimar les pèrdues porten a un equilibri en el qual no hi ha informació disponible al mercat en temps de crisi, i on els bancs prenen riscos excessius ex-ante. El tercer capítol, en coautoria amb Philipp Ager, proporciona una anàlisi empírica dels efectes de la liberalització sobre la competència bancària i fallides bancàries. Utilitzant la relaxació de les barreres a l'entrada dels bancs als EUA al segle XIX com a cas d'estudi, ens trobem que la liberalització augmenta l'entrada de bancs en un 11% i la fallida de bancs en un 2,6%.