Academic literature on the topic 'Terms of trade – Soviet Union'
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Journal articles on the topic "Terms of trade – Soviet Union"
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Rudokvas, Anton D. "Trade Unions and Labour Law in a Modern Russia." International Journal of Comparative Labour Law and Industrial Relations 17, Issue 4 (December 1, 2001): 407–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.54648/394545.
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The author highlights the actual problems of the trade union movement and labour market changes taking place in a modern Russia, analyzes the evolution of trade unionism through the prism of its history. He rightly believes that it is impossible to carry out such a study without addressing the situation in this field in the U.S.S.R. as many realities of that time continue to exist in an adjusted form now. In terms of centralized state soviet trade unions performed the role of one of the divisions of the mechanism of the government. The appearance of alternative trade unions marked an important shift towards decentralization and liberalization of the labour relations. The peculiarity of a trade union movement in Russia of the second half of the 1990s consists in its high degree of politization. In the event of a rigid confrontation between workers and employers the functions of trade unions on the regional level are often taken by small opposition parties and left groupings. The proclamation of the course aimed at the formation of the market economy in a post-communist Russia has brought the questions on the labour law reform. So another important issue touched by the author concerns the reform of the Russian Labour Code which was adopted in the epoch of socialism and now results no more adequate in light of the drastic social economic and political changes taking place in Russia.
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Marrese, Michael. "CMEA: effective but cumbersome political economy." International Organization 40, no. 2 (1986): 287–327. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0020818300027156.
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The Council for Mutual Economic Assistance is primarily a forum for bilateral bargaining between the Soviet Union and each of the other CMEA countries. The bilateral negotiations are conducted with tremendous concern for Soviet long-term preferences and for the short-term economic-political stability of East European countries. The CMEA provides the Soviet Union with an effective but cumbersome politico-economic policy-making apparatus that is becoming less effective and increasingly cumbersome over time. From the East European perspective, the CMEA tends to solidify the positions of the East European leaders yet generate long-term economic costs. What are the preferences upon which the CMEA is constructed? How are CMEA characteristics related to these preferences? What are the economic costs and benefits to member countries in static and dynamic terms? Why have costs for all member countries risen over time? How is intra-CMEA trade likely to change during the next decade?
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Tarr, David G. "The Terms-of-Trade Effects of Moving to World Prices on Countries of the Former Soviet Union." Journal of Comparative Economics 18, no. 1 (February 1994): 1–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/jcec.1994.1001.
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Habibov, Nazim, Elvin Afandi, and Alex Cheung. "Sand or grease? Corruption-institutional trust nexus in post-Soviet countries." Journal of Eurasian Studies 8, no. 2 (July 2017): 172–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euras.2017.05.001.
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This paper empirically tests several hypotheses about the nexus of corruption-institutional trust in Post-Soviet transitional countries of the former Soviet Union and Mongolia. We use two different indices of institutional trust to check the robustness of our analysis and estimate OLS and instrumental variable models with and without interaction terms. All things considered, our findings reject “greases the wheels” and “trust begets an honest political system” hypotheses. Instead, our findings support the “sand the wheels” hypothesis. Furthermore, a multiplicative interaction model suggests that the negative marginal effects of experienced corruption are higher in the environments where satisfaction with services is low. In addition, we found that increases in corruption erode trust at all levels of the societal institutions including political parties, government and financial institutions, international investors, non-profit organizations, and trade unions. This finding is important since it highlights the negative consequences of corruption on the development of broader level economic institutions and on civil society.
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Gilmintinov, Roman. ""We can and we must": The scientificitiy of trade-union history-writing in the Soviet Union in the 1920s." Studia Historiae Scientiarum 18 (November 15, 2019): 219–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.4467/2543702xshs.19.008.11014.
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In the 1920s, the young Soviet Republic, rejecting the old social system, turned to the study of the past. Instead of engaging with professional historians, the new regime initiated a whole range of large-scale participatory projects incorporated into political and public institutions to produce new, revolutionary history. In this article, instead of approaching this topic in terms of ideology and memory I put it in the context of history of science. Focusing on the case of trade unions, I suggest considering the early Soviet non-academic history-writing as a form of radical citizen science. Even though trade unionists had no special education, they dared to use scientific methods in their research that ended with positive results. This story allows us to question the opposition between amateurs and professionals in the field of citizen science. „Możemy i musimy”: Naukowość pisarstwa historycznego o związkach zawodowych w Związku Radzieckim w latach 20. XX wieku Abstrakt W latach 20. XX wieku młoda Republika Radziecka odrzuciwszy stary układ społeczny zwróciła się ku badaniom przeszłości. Zamiast współpracować z profesjonalnymi historykami, nowy reżim zapoczątkował całą gamę dużych projektów partycypacyjnych pod kontrolą instytucji politycznych i publicznych, których celem było stworzenia nowej, rewolucyjnej historii. W tym artykule zamiast podchodzić do tego tematu w kategoriach ideologii i pamięci, umieściłem go w kontekście historii nauki. Skupiając się na przypadku związków zawodowych, sugeruję rozważenie wczesnego sowieckiego, nieakademickiego pisarstwa historycznego jako formie radykalnej nauki obywatelskiej. Mimo że związkowcy nie mieli kierunkowego wykształcenia, odważyli się wykorzystać metodę naukową w swoich badaniach zwieńczonych pozytywnymi rezultatami. Przykład ten pozwala nam kwestionować opozycję między amatorami i profesjonalistami w dziedzinie nauki obywatelskiej.
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Black, Robert. "Reforming Biosecurity Legislation in Developing Countries: Increasing Market Access or Maintaining Unequal Terms of Trade?" Journal of World Trade 53, Issue 5 (October 1, 2019): 833–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.54648/trad2019033.
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This article explores the challenges faced by developing and transitional countries (For the purposes of this article, Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries now mostly in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), with the exception of the Russian Federation itself, are included in the term ‘developing countries’.) in international trade in agricultural goods and other natural resource products in compliance with the normative framework of the World Trade Organisation, and in particular of the Agreement on the Application on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (‘SPS Agreement’). It details the legislative and administrative measures, as justified by ‘scientific evidence’ and ‘risk assessment’, that a WTO member may take to prevent the importation of unsafe food and animal feed, and pests and disease organisms. As well as considering the policy implications and constraints to relevant legislative reform, the article also draws on the author’s experience in biosecurity legislative review and drafting in Africa, Caribbean, Eastern Europe and Central Asia using the umbrella concept of ‘biosecurity’ to reflect on the challenges facing drafting of legislation consistent with the normative international frameworks for biosecurity. Taken into account is the impact of the SPS Agreement on the terms of food trade imposed on developing countries and the connection between international trade and environmental protection.
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Spaulding, Robert Mark. "German trade policy in Eastern Europe, 1890–1990: preconditions for applying international trade leverage." International Organization 45, no. 3 (1991): 343–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0020818300033130.
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Over the past century, Germany has repeatedly attempted to use trade as a tool of foreign policy vis-à-vis Imperial Russia, the Soviet Union, Poland, and Czechoslovakia. Against the background of continual German economic superiority, this article analyzes Germany's ability to apply trade leverage in terms of four other factors: the nature of the prevailing international trade regime, government views of trade leverage as a tool of statecraft, the degree of German state autonomy in setting trade policies, and the availability of an effective bureaucratic mechanism for controlling German imports and exports. The historical record demonstrates that beyond economic superiority, the application of trade leverage requires a permissive international trade regime, state acceptance of trade-based economic statecraft, an autonomous domestic regime, and a rigorous trade control bureaucracy. Surprisingly, this conjunction of factors, as they applied to Eastern Europe, occurred during both the Nazi period and the early years of the Federal Republic. The article closes by pointing out how two important factors—the politicized nature of the East-West trade regime and the Federal Republic's high degree of state autonomy in setting Eastern trade policy–are being eroded by political and economic change in Eastern Europe.
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Kot, Vera, Arina Barsukova, Wadim Strielkowski, Mikhail Krivko, and Luboš Smutka. "International Trade in the Post-Soviet Space: Trends, Threats, and Prospects for the Internal Trade within the Eurasian Economic Union." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 16, no. 1 (December 27, 2022): 16. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16010016.
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This paper discusses the dynamics of foreign trade in the post-Soviet space within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) during the period from 2015 to 2021. Additionally, the paper analyzes export indicators in foreign and mutual trade of the EAEU member countries and diversification of the commodity structure as well as its dynamics based on the commodity concentration index for each member country. Our paper identifies the strengths and weaknesses of the EAEU, analyzes the opportunities and threats of development, and focuses on the trends and prospects. The main strengths include the institutional and legal structure of the EAEU single market, the historical, cultural, and economic proximity of the EAEU member countries, the transit potential of the territory, the high level of domestic trade, and the increasing share of ruble transactions in the trade turnover. The most significant weaknesses are the low efficiency of the institutional structure, the gap in the socio-economic level of development of the participating countries, unstable geopolitical situations in some member countries, the low level of recognition of the EAEU in the world market, economic and political conflicts of interests of the member countries, and the dependence on Western technologies in some key industries. Strategically important opportunities can be found in the creation and implementation of a long-term development strategy, diversification of trade with the Middle East and Asian countries, expansion in terms of the territorial composition, development of the institutional and legal structure as well as cooperation ties, as well as the cooperation in the field of technological innovation and financial security. Among the most significant threats were identified the outpacing growth in the share of EAEU members’ trade with China, the expansion of economic and political contradictions between the EAEU member countries, and the strengthening of the positions of alternative currencies in foreign trade.
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Tsitouras, Antonis, Athanasios Koulakiotis, Georgios Makris, and Harry Papapanagos. "International trade and foreign direct investment as growth stimulators in transition economies: does the impact of institutional factors matter?" Investment Management and Financial Innovations 14, no. 4 (December 23, 2017): 148–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.14(4).2017.13.
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The present paper develops a general production function framework, augmented with two institutional variables namely bureaucracy and corruption on 28 transition economies over the period 2000-2015. The authors use various econometric specifications and apply both the Fixed Effects, as well as the advanced system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) panel data techniques. Empirical findings suggest that the impact of openness in terms of foreign direct investment and international trade is advantageous to all the economies of the panel. Furthermore, the findings indicate that classical growth determinants, such as labor and physical capital, have the expected positive contribution, while macroeconomic instability has a negative effect on real economic activity. Regarding the impact of the two institutional variables, corruption, and bureaucracy, the authors retrieve more influential results, as their impact appears to be diametrically opposite between the former Soviet Union states and the rest of European transition economics.
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Liobikienė, Genovaitė, and Justina Mandravickaitė. "ACHIEVEMENTS OF LITHUANIAN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE INTEGRATION PROCESS INTO THE EUROPEAN UNION." Technological and Economic Development of Economy 17, no. 1 (March 17, 2011): 62–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/13928619.2011.554000.
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After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Lithuania rapidly started turning towards European trade patterns averting from those of the former communist regime. However, European integration has had an effect not only on convergence of gross domestic product (GDP) but also on convergence of prices as well as on alteration of living standards. The goals of Lithuanian integration to the EU were noted in the National Lithuanian Sustainable Development Strategy. The key objective of sustainable development in Lithuania was to achieve the present developmental level of the EU countries according to indicators of economic and social development. Therefore, the paper compares the convergence across the old and newer member-states of the EU in terms of GDP, household final consumption expenditure and comparative price level indices. In addition, it is revealed that Lithuanian expenditure patterns rapidly approach those of the old member-states of the EU. Consequently, Lithuanian integration to the EU contributes to approaching the EU-15 level what means the successful achievements of Sustainable Development Strategy as well. So, the aim of this paper is to show how successful are Lithuanian sustainable development achievements in terms of GDP, comparative price level and household expenditure within framework of integration to the EU.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Terms of trade – Soviet Union"
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Lee, Choongbae. "The geopolitics of South Korean trade relations with the former Soviet Union (1988-1993)." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.268961.
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Bradshaw, Michael Joseph. "East-West trade and the regional development of Siberia and the Soviet Far East." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 1987. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/26964.
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Studies of the role of East-West trade in Soviet economic development often assume that Siberia and the Far East play an important role in trading relations, but few studies have examined the extent of that role and the relationship between trade and economic development within the region. This study addresses two interrelated questions: firstly, what is the role of Siberia and the Far East in trade with the West, and secondly, what is the role of East-West trade in Siberian development.
Regional trade participation data are not available. The study therefore examines the composition of Soviet trade with the West and the industrial structure of the Siberian economy, in order to deduce the extent of regional participation in trade. Soviet exports to the West are dominated by natural resources, while imports from the West comprise machinery and equipment, manufactured goods and agricultural products. Analysis of the Siberian economy reveals a specialisation in the production and processing of natural resources. Estimates of export participation show that since the late 1970s the region has become the Soviet Union's most important source of foreign currency. Imports of Western technology are shown to play an important part in natural resource production and in the creation of Siberia's Territorial-Production Complexes. In many instances compensation agreements tie the use of imports to export production.
Overall the value of Siberian exports exceeds the cost of imports of Western technology, so that the region generates a sizeable foreign currency surplus. In conclusion, a simple model of the trade and development process is presented which relates the pattern of foreign trade participation to the process of regional development. The impact of Western imports is felt mainly in the European core region where they provide additional resources to feed the population and renovate the industrial base; the impact of exports to the West is felt mainly in Siberia and the Far East where they increase demands for natural resource production. Thus, East-West trade serves to perpetuate the existing core-periphery pattern of Soviet regional development.Arts, Faculty of
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Carter, Charles William. "The Importance of Osthandel: West German-Soviet Trade and the End of the Cold War, 1969-1991." The Ohio State University, 2012. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1346850432.
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Brown, James D. J. "The energy impact theory of foreign policy : an analysis of Soviet Union and Russian Federation, 1970-2010." Thesis, University of Aberdeen, 2011. http://digitool.abdn.ac.uk:80/webclient/DeliveryManager?pid=166218.
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This thesis addresses the substantive problem: how does variation in energy wealth impact upon the foreign policies of major energy-producing states? To answer this question, the thesis draws upon the ‘resource curse’ literature, as well as existing works of foreign policy analysis, to formulate a new theory. Based on a framework of neoclassical realism, this energy impact theory of foreign policy proposes that energy wealth, conceived as a national capability, has a significant and reliable effect on major energy-producing states’ foreign policies. Specifically, it is hypothesised that increases in energy capabilities amplify the scale and scope of these states’ international activity; promote boldness, ambition, and aggression; and encourage the adoption of unilateralist approaches to foreign policy. Decreases in energy capabilities are anticipated to have the opposite effects. Having delineated the core features of this middle-range theory, the model is tested using an initial, most-likely case study of the Soviet Union and Russian Federation, 1970 to 2010. The results of this empirical study are enormously encouraging since, following meticulous qualitative analysis of events data, the theory is concluded to have significant explanatory value in this context, as well as substantial promise as a more general model. In this way, the thesis endeavours to make a distinctive contribution, not only to research into the factors shaping Moscow’s international conduct, but also to the broader theoretical literatures on the ‘resource curse’ and foreign policy analysis. It is anticipated that this thesis marks only the beginning of a much more extensive programme of research.
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Nashiraliyev, Yeldos. "Economic integration in the Commonwealth of Independent States: perspectives, problems, solutions : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Public Policy at Massey University, Albany, New Zealand." Massey University, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10179/1080.
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It has been 17 years since the Soviet Union broke up and its constituent countries gained their independence. In the beginning years the sovereignty was considered an indisputable priority, resulting in economic matters being put off. However, in the light of slow economic development in the area, it seemed to be imperative for these countries to pursue economic integration. Backed up by political will, several attempts had been made to establish various integration groupings, one of them being the Commonwealth of Independent States. The established organisation’s main aim was to assist countries in preserving the connecting links inherited from the former Soviet Union. Some of the countries in the region managed to achieve relatively high growth rates mainly due to their individual efforts. Unfortunately, so far, none out of a number of proposed integration projects has proven to be an effective and binding tool in the political and economic development of the region. This thesis aims to identify problems standing in the way of economic integration of the Commonwealth of Independent States. As of now, a free trade area – the initial form of economic integration – has not been established. Although trade ties between the member states function, the main export destination of these states is outside the Commonwealth. It is recommended that the initial steps in setting up a free trade area in this territory should begin with developing integration within regional associations, due to smaller numbers of participants and their common interests.
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Götz, Linde Johanna [Verfasser]. "Trade policy interventions on agricultural markets in countries of the former Soviet Union and the Balkans / Linde Johanna Götz." Halle, 2017. http://d-nb.info/1147380600/34.
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Orjasniemi, S. (Seppo). "Studies on the macroeconomics of monetary union." Doctoral thesis, Oulun yliopisto, 2012. http://urn.fi/urn:isbn:9789514298110.
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Abstract The euro area consists of several small open, fairly heterogeneous economies. The establishment of this common currency area greatly changed the macroeconomic interdependency between its member countries. This thesis examines the fundamental macroeconomic linkages and spillover effects between the monetary union member countries with the focus on the phenomena associated with the countries’ openness to international trade. This doctoral thesis consists of three essays. The first essay examines the impact of the implementation of a monetary union on international economic fluctuations. The essay finds that the implementation reverses the expenditure-switching effects between goods produced inside the monetary union, and helps to stabilize economic fluctuations. The second essay examines the effects of openness to international trade on a small monetary union. The essay shows howmovements in the monetary union’s exchange rate stabilize output fluctuations inside the monetary union and reduce the need for fiscal stabilization. The third essay argues that, under a non-coordinated optimal fiscal policy, government spending should focus on the stabilization of a local output gap and inflation, while union-wide aggregate fluctuations should be stabilized by a common independent monetary policy. The essay also shows how a suboptimal monetary policy increases the spillover effects of countryspecific shocksTiivistelmä Tässä väitöskirjassa tutkitaan rahaliiton maiden välisiä makrotaloudellisia riippuvuussuhteita. Tutkimuksessa keskitytään erityisesti kansainvälisen kaupan ilmiöihin. Väitöskirja koostuu kolmesta erillisestä esseestä. Ensimmäisessä esseessä käsitellään rahaliiton perustamisen vaikutuksia kansainvälisen talouden dynamiikkaan. Tulosten mukaan rahaliiton perustaminen muuttaa vaihtosuhteen dynamiikkaa rahaliiton sisällä. Lisäksi rahaliiton muodostaminen vaimentaa jäsenmaiden makrotaloudellisia heilahteluita. Toisessa esseessä tutkitaan kansainvälisen kaupan merkitystä pienen rahaliiton tapauksessa. Havaitaan, että yhteisvaluutan kurssimuutokset tasapainottavat rahaliiton sisäisiä reaalitalouden muutoksia ja vähentävät tarvetta tasapainottaa taloutta finanssipolitiikan avulla. Kolmannessa esseessä osoitetaan, että rahaliiton jäsenvaltioiden harjoittaman itsenäisen finanssipolitiikan tulisi keskittyä kotimaisen inflaation ja tuotannon tasapainottamiseen. Yhteisen rahapolitiikan tulisi puolestaan tasapainottaa rahaliiton keskimääräisiä muutoksia. Tulosten mukaan epäoptimaalinen rahapolitiikka voimistaa maakohtaisten reaalitaloudellisten muutosten välittymistä muihin rahaliiton maihin
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Boumediene, Farid Jimmy. "Determinacy and learning stability of economic policy in asymmetric monetary union models." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/972.
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This thesis examines determinacy and E-stability of economic policy in monetary union models. Monetary policy takes the form of either a contemporaneous or a forecast based interest rate rule, while fiscal policy follows a contemporaneous government spending rule. In the absence of asymmetries, the results from the closed economy literature on learning are retained. However, when introducing asymmetries into monetary union frameworks, the determinacy and E-stability conditions for economic policy differ from both the closed and open economy cases. We find that a monetary union with heterogeneous price rigidities is more likely to be determinate and E-stable. Specifically, the Taylor principle, a key stability condition for the closed economy, is now relaxed. Furthermore, an interest rate rule that stabilizes the terms of trade in addition to output and inflation, is more likely to induce determinacy and local stability under RLS learning. If monetary policy is sufficiently aggressive in stabilizing the terms of trade, then determinacy and E-stability of the union economy can be achieved without direct stabilization of output and inflation. A fiscal policy rule that supports demand for domestic goods following a shock to competitiveness, can destabilize the union economy regardless of the interest rate rule employed by the union central bank. In this case, determinacy and E-stability conditions have to be simultaneously and independently met by both fiscal and monetary policy for the union economy to be stable. When fiscal policy instead stabilizes domestic output gaps while monetary policy stabilizes union output and inflation, fiscal policy directly affects the stability of monetary policy. A contemporaneous monetary policy rule has to be more aggressive to satisfy the Taylor principle, the more aggressive fiscal policy is. On the other hand, when monetary policy is forward looking, an aggressive fiscal policy rule can help induce determinacy.
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Mann, Samuel. "Essays in international macroeconomics and finance." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2018. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/279973.
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This collection of essays examines the topic of macroeconomic stabilisation in an international context, focusing on monetary policy, capital controls and exchange rates. Chapter 1, written in collaboration with Giancarlo Corsetti and Joao Duarte, reconsiders the effects of common monetary policy shocks across countries in the euro area, using a data-rich factor model and identifying shocks with high-frequency surprises around policy announcements. We show that the degree of heterogeneity in the response to shocks, while being low in financial variables and output, is significant in consumption, consumer prices and macro variables related to the labour and housing markets. Mirroring country-specific institutional and market differences, we find that home ownership rates are significantly correlated with the strength of the housing channel in monetary policy transmission. We document a high dispersion in the response to shocks of house prices and rents and show that, similar to responses in the US, these variables tend to move in different directions. In Chapter 2, I build a two-country, two-good model to examine the welfare effects of capital controls, finding that under certain circumstances, a shut-down in asset trade can be a Pareto improvement. Further, I examine the robustness of the result to parameter changes, explore a wider set of policy instruments and confront computational issues in this class of international macroeconomic models. I document that within an empirically relevant parameter span for the trade elasticity, the gains from capital controls might be significantly larger than suggested by previous contributions. Moreover, I establish that a refined form of capital controls in the shape of taxes and tariffs cannot improve upon the outcome under financial autarky. Finally, results show that the conjunction of pruning methods and endogenous discount factors can remove explosive behaviour from this class of models and restore equilibrating properties. In Chapter 3, I use a panel of 20 emerging market currencies to assess whether a model that combines fundamental and non-fundamental exchange rate forecasting approaches can successfully predict risk premia (i.e. currency excess returns) over the short horizon. In doing so, I aim to overcome three main shortcomings of earlier research: i) Sensitivity to the chosen sample period; ii) seemingly arbitrary selection of explanatory variables that differs from currency to currency; and iii) difficulty in interpreting forecasts beyond the numerical signal. Based on a theoretical model of currency risk premia, I use real exchange rate strength combined with indicators for carry, momentum and economic sentiment to homogeneously forecast risk premia across all 20 currencies in the sample at a monthly frequency. In doing so, the model remains largely agnostic about structural choices, keeping arbitrarily imposed restrictions to a minimum. Results from portfolio construction suggest that returns are significant and robust both across currencies as well as over time, with Sharpe Ratios in out-of-sample tests above 0.7.
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Perničková, Adéla. "Porovnání evropského a asijského přístupu k Africe." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-81877.
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In my diploma thesis I compare European and Asian approach to African continent. In the first chapter natural resources and strategic position of Africa is described. I deal with traditional business relationships with African partner, political relation, their agriculture production and tourism in Africa. In this chapter I apply Leamer's triangle, Dutch disease and terms of trade on relationship between African countries and their business partners. Second chapter analyzes factors which influence interests for cooperation between European and African countries. In the second half of this chapter I try to show how Africa sees European and Asian countries. I deal mainly with relationship between European and African integration, using the theory of the effects of economic blocs. In the last chapter I compare the approach of the European Union and Asian countries to Africa.
Books on the topic "Terms of trade – Soviet Union"
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Tarr, David G. How moving to world prices affects the terms-of-trade in 15 countries of the former Soviet Union. Washington, DC (1818 H St., NW., Washington 20433): Country Economics Dept., World Bank, 1993.
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United States. General Accounting Office., ed. Agricultural trade: Long-term bilateral grain agreements with the Soviet Union and China. Washington, D.C: GAO, 1989.
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Office, General Accounting. Agricultural trade: Long-term bilateral grain agreements with the Soviet Union and China : report to congressional requesters. Washington, D.C: The Office, 1989.
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Office, General Accounting. Agricultural trade: Long-term bilateral grain agreements with the Soviet Union and China : report to congressional requesters. Washington, D.C: The Office, 1989.
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Office, General Accounting. Agricultural trade: Long-term bilateral grain agreements with the Soviet Union and China : report to congressional requesters. Washington, D.C: The Office, 1989.
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Office, General Accounting. Agricultural trade: Long-term bilateral grain agreements with the Soviet Union and China : report to congressional requesters. Washington, D.C: The Office, 1989.
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Office, General Accounting. Agricultural trade: Long-term bilateral grain agreements with the Soviet Union and China : report to congressional requesters. Washington, D.C: The Office, 1989.
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Hunter, David W. Western Trade Pressure on the Soviet Union. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-12002-4.
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Sharma, Subhash Chandra. Indo-Soviet trade since independence. New Delhi: Radha Publications, 1992.
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1945-, Parrott Bruce, and Georgetown University. Center for Strategic and International Studies., eds. Trade, technology, and Soviet-American relations. Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1985.
Find full textBook chapters on the topic "Terms of trade – Soviet Union"
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Pietromarchi, Luca, and Lovett F. Edwards. "Trade Union Safeguards." In The Soviet World, 401–15. London: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003336501-17.
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Nove, Alec, and Desmond Donnelly. "The Soviet Union." In Trade with Communist Countries, 117–30. London: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003243328-16.
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Smith, Alan H. "Foreign Trade." In The Soviet Union Under Gorbachev, 135–55. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-18648-8_8.
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Muckle, James. "The Teachers’ Trade Union." In Portrait of a Soviet School under Glasnost, 169–75. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-21077-0_13.
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Nakamura, Yasushi. "Money Supply and Soviet Foreign Trade." In Monetary Policy in the Soviet Union, 125–50. New York: Palgrave Macmillan US, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-49418-4_6.
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Kemp, Walter A. "Defining the Terms." In Nationalism and Communism in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, 1–21. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230375253_1.
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Laqueur, Walter Z. "Soviet Trade and Economic Aid: 1954-1958." In The Soviet Union and the Middle East, 264–80. London: Routledge, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003195641-14.
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Diebold, William. "The Soviet Union and GATT: Gesture, Metaphor or Serious Trade Policy?" In Soviet Foreign Policy, 104–27. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-11341-5_7.
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Hunter, David W. "Introduction." In Western Trade Pressure on the Soviet Union, 1–13. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-12002-4_1.
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Hunter, David W. "Economic Sanctions: Pre-World War II Through Cold War." In Western Trade Pressure on the Soviet Union, 14–25. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-12002-4_2.
Full textConference papers on the topic "Terms of trade – Soviet Union"
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Tufaner, Mustafa Batuhan, Hasan Boztoprak, and İlyas Sözen. "An Alternative to The European Customs Union for Turkey in The Framework of Economic Integration Theory: Eurasian Customs Union." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c09.01957.
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The liberalization policies begun after 1980 and globalization process bring with new economic associations and trade blocs among countries. The European Customs Union which established to improve economic relations and to make the political integration possible after World War II, reached large trade capacity today. On the other hand, the Post-Soviet countries that followed similar way like European ones established Eurasian Customs Union under the leadership of Kazakhstan, Belarus and Russia. The advantage of European Customs Union for Turkey which became a member of it in 1995 is still discussed. From this viewpoint the study aims to answer a question that Eurasian Customs Union can be an alternative to European Customs Union for Turkey in point of trade capacity. The aim of the study is to discuss the possibility of the Eurasian Customs Union and to compare it with the European Customs Union in which Turkey is involved. In this context, at first, the conceptual framework about the subject will be discussed and European Customs Union and Turkey relations will be examined. After, the current situation of the Eurasian region will be analyzed and the possibility of the Eurasian Customs Union will be discussed. And, which customs union will be more advantageous in terms of Turkey will be examined by VAR analysis.
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Karapınar, Esra. "The Place of Central Asian Turkic Republics in the Global World." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c01.00124.
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Globalization process which started at the end of nineteenth century and goes on at the present shows its impacts more in some countries or less in some other countries but this is a process that closes up countries, blots out authorities’ immunities, makes them become transparent, and strengthens socio-cultural, political and especially economic relations. After the terms of being introverted and self-sufficiency between First and Second World Wars, struggles to liberalized world trade have been accelerated since 1960, and good and service flows between countries grew both as a volume and value. As a result of liberalization and deregulation politics which appears since 1980, the capital could move easier on the world. So, how has this process felt its effect on the Central Asian Turkic Republics includes Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan that arised in 1991 after dissociation in the Soviet Union because of clearing and reconstruction policy applied and after facility of establishing its own, independent states by earning their national identities to Turkish elements who lived under the sovereignty of Russians for years is given? The aim of study here is to analyse the effects of that globalization wave in the Turkic Republics which spread out all over the world. For this purpose, first of all changes in the Soviet Union 's policy will be considered and reflections of it on the economical life are to be investigated, and then applications and what the course of actions about integration with the World determined by mentioned republics after dissociation are to be discussed.
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Akça, Tacinur. "Foreign Trade Relations Between Turkey and the Eurasian Countries: An Empirical Study." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c07.01793.
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The Eurasian Countries incorporates many economic and cultural wealth. The Eurasian countries have attracted attention all over the world with its rich oil and natural gas reserves and geopolitical situation. Due to the increasing importance of the Eurasian countries, as well as being an alternative to a political foreign policy and it has created an economically viable alternative in terms of foreign trade for Turkey. The importance of exports is increasing for the development of Turkey and Eurasia cannot be neglected as an important issue. History of the republic's foreign policy is focused on establishing good relations with the West. Of the Soviet Union collapsed and the Cold War ended after the opening of the new Turkish foreign policy became inevitable to be based in Central Asia and the Caucasus, Turkey aimed to be active in this region.
The main purpose of our study was that Turkey's foreign trade with The Eurasian Countries is to reveal the relationship. The interest in the region began in the beginning of 1990, the economic policies implemented by Turkey has tried to analyze using relevant data. İn our study, in order to analyze the economic relationship between our countries and Eurasian Countries, Turkey's import and export figures which were explained in the form of tables with the countries concerned. We will concentrate on the major Eurasian countries, especially in our work we focus on Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova.
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Karaman, Ömer Faruk. "The Impacts of the Eurasian Economic Union on the Relations Between Kyrgyzstan and Turkey." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c09.02023.
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With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian Federation, trying to develop economic and political relations with various countries, in order to maintain its influence in the newly independent states, is in charge of creating an organization called the Eurasian Economic Union. In this context, the Eurasian Economic Union, which started its activity in January 2015, is an attempt to economic integration among Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. The Turkish foreign policy has changed in multi-vector direction. Thus, the last events in Eurasia began to attract the attention of Turkey. In this paper, focusing on the perceptions of Eurasia by Russia and Turkey, examines the influence of the Eurasian Economic Union on relations between Turkey and Kyrgyzstan. In this context, Kyrgyzstan's membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, in a political sense, may negatively affect relations between two countries and reduce the presence of Turkey in Kyrgyzstan. Also, because of the expected increasing in customs duties and hence rise in prices for goods imported from Turkey, the decline in demand for Turkish goods is expected. Nevertheless, the possibility of signing free trade agreements between member states, including Kyrgyzstan and Turkey in the long term, will change the political, commercial and cultural relations between two countries in a positive way.
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JI- EON, LEE, and YOO NA-YEON. "SOUTH KOREA’S DIPLOMATIC RELATIONSHIP WITH UZBEKISTAN SINCE 1991: STRATEGY AND CHARACTERISTICS OF EACH GOVERNMENT." In UZBEKISTAN-KOREA: CURRENT STATE AND PROSPECTS OF COOPERATION. OrientalConferences LTD, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.37547/ocl-01-03.
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One of the biggest events in international political history at the end of the 20th century was end of the Cold War due to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991, the Cold War system, led by the US and the Soviet Union as the two main axes, disappeared into history, dramatically changing the international situation and creating new independent states in the international community. In the past, as the protagonist of the Silk Road civilization, it was a channel of trade and culture, linking the East and the West, but as members of the former Soviet Union, Central Asian countries whose importance and status were not well known have emerged on the international stage in the process of forming a new international order. After independence, Central Asia countries began to attract attention from the world as the rediscovery of the Silk Road, that is, the geopolitical importance of being the center of the Eurasian continent, and as a treasure trove of natural resources such as oil and gas increased.
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Levchenko, Vladimir. "Development of Creative Activity of Rural Workers in Eastern Siberia in 1966–1970." In Irkutsk Historical and Economic Yearbook 2021. Baikal State University, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.17150/978-5-7253-3040-3.24.
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The subject of this article is the activities of the party, Soviet, trade union organizations of Eastern Siberia to develop the creative activity of rural workers, to achieve high results in their work in 1966–1970.
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Turdubekova, Aigul, and Elmira Kupsuralieva. "Kyrgyzstan and Eurasian Customs Union." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c04.00823.
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This paper looks at the issue of joining the Eurasian Customs Union for Kyrgyzstan. We first provide a short description of how some former Soviet Union countries attempted to rejuvenate their regional integration followed by the review of the economic, social and political background of Kyrgyzstan in joining the Eurasian Customs Union. The main conditions for and the associated impact of joining the Union on customs tariffs and the international trade of Kyrgyzstan are discussed. By comparing the main development indicators of the Customs Union member countries we try to find any advantages for the Kyrgyz economy from joining the Union. An additional discussion of the potential losses and benefits shows that there are more benefits from joining the Customs Union. In general, we find that since the founders of the Customs Union – Russia and Kazakhstan – are also very important geographical, economic and political partners of our country, joining the Union seems inevitable for Kyrgyzstan.
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LĂDARU, Georgiana-Raluca, Bogdan CHIRIPUCI, and Vlad-Constantin TURCEA. "AGRI-FOOD TRADE BALANCE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION." In Competitiveness of Agro-Food and Environmental Economy. Editura ASE, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.24818/cafee/2021/10/08.
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Current paper focuses on the agri-food trade balance representing an up-to-date piece of research due to both its current applicability and broadness. The EU-28 Member States have been overseen in terms of food trade values and, in most of the identified food categories, trade surplus has been recorded. The paper’s preamble points towards the importance of trade in achieving food security, then the specialized literature is quantitatively reviewed highlighting the increasing interest over this topic and, as the last part of the paper, all the 24 food categories are analyzed. The Netherlands, Spain and Germany are some good examples of leading nations in specific food category groups.
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Karluk, S. Rıdvan. "Eurasian Customs Union and Turkey’s Membership." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c06.01343.
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Leaders of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan which are the countries of disintegrated Soviet Union signed an agreement in order to establish a Union named Eurasian Economic Union on the date of 29 May 2014. With this attempt Russia wants to protect its former penetration on former Soviet geography by providing economic integration. Positive messages upon the membership of Turkey to Eurasia Economic Union were given at Eurasia Economic Union meeting which was held in Ankara in January mid-2015 and hosted by Andrey Karlov, Ambassador of Russia. Nursultan Nazarbayev, who is the pioneer of this idea, has stressed that Turkey should be a member of the Community several times before now. The idea of Sergey Markov, who is the point man of Putin as “Turkey should enter Eurasia Union not European Union, it can gain strength in this way”, is void within the scope of international agreements which Turkey signed with European Union and of the rules of WTO. Erdoğan, Prime Minister of the relevant term said Putin that “Take Turkey into Shanghai Cooperation Organization and ease our difficulty”; in Russian- Turkey peak held on 23 November 2013 in St. Petersburg province of Russia. This explanation is not possible in terms of international law. Explanation of Zeybekçi, Minister of Economy as “Eurasia Customs Union is a must for Turkey. We have to be there” is not realistic. In our paper we will deal and explain why Turkey cannot enter Eurasia Customs Union and why an axial dislocation cannot occur in Turkey.
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Gencer, Ayşen Hiç. "Gravity Modeling of Turkey's International Trade under Globalization." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c03.00425.
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Gravity modeling in international trade is developed by Tinbergen and Poyhonen in the 1960s, inspired by Newton's standard gravity formulation. This model suggests that the volume of trade between two countries is proportional to the product of their national income and inversely proportional to the distance between them. This study attempts to answer the question whether the gravity model is still valid for the case of Turkey today in the age of globalization and declining transportation costs due to improvements in logistics and technology. To this end, Turkey's imports as well as exports data with respect to all the countries of the world for the 16 years between 1993 and 2008 are analyzed. The results show that the gravity model, even in its basic form, is still powerful in explaining the trade volumes between Turkey and all other countries. In addition, the basic model is extended to analyze Turkey's trade with specific country groups such as the EU countries, the Islamic countries, the former Soviet Union countries, and the Central Asian countries. The analysis concludes that except for the Central Asian countries, Turkey's trade is not specialized with any particular country group. The 1995 Customs Union with the EU or any other step already taken towards full membership into the EU has not significantly increased Turkey's trade volume with the EU members over the amounts predicted by the basic version of the gravity model for any country pair of similar distance and GDP levels.
Reports on the topic "Terms of trade – Soviet Union"
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Fairlie, Alan. New challenges for the European Union's Multiparty Trade Agreement with Peru, Colombia and Ecuador. Fundación Carolina, February 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.33960/issn-e.1885-9119.dtff02en.
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This document analyses the trade and cooperation relations between the European Union and the Andean countries with which the Multiparty Trade Agreement was signed (Peru, Ecuador and Colombia). It also examines the progress and challenges in terms of the sustainable development agenda, political dialogue and cooperation within the framework of the agreement. From there, it explores the different technical difficulties that have arisen in the implementation of the agreement and the role of the monitoring bodies. The aim is to study the strategic importance of the agreement in relations between the European Union and Peru, Ecuador and Colombia, and its contribution to the post-pandemic economic recovery and the promotion of new development models.
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Lodge, Junior, and Jan Yves. The Promise of a Recalibrated Caribbean-European Union Partnership. Fundación Carolina, March 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.33960/issn-e.1885-9119.dtff03en.
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The Caribbean and the European Union (EU) have been enjoined in a formal bi-regional relationship since the signing of the Lomé Convention in 1975, and are firm proponents of multilateralism, strong advocates of regional integration, democracy and rule of law, and reflect vibrant multi-ethnic and multilingual polities. The bi-regional relationship has evolved considerably over the intervening 45 years, and is reflected in formal agreements between the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) States and the EU, and in the sphere of economic cooperation, has been strengthened with the signing of the Cariforum-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in 2008. The EU also remains a significant source of development cooperation for the Caribbean, complemented by a sui generis project management regime that includes multi-annual programming. Beyond this, the bi-regional ties have expanded into new areas of joint multilateral endeavour such as the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Despite the long and formal engagement, the Cariforum-EU partnership has not engendered either deep understanding of, or universal support in, each other’s conduct of multilateral negotiations. To the contrary, the partnership displays regular flashes of unease and arguably low-level tension. This paper seeks to assess the Caribbean-EU partnership in terms of its contribution of bi-regional trade and economic cooperation to Caribbean development, and possibilities for a renewed partnership considering new impulses shaping the Cariforum-EU relationship, including the post-Cotonou Agreement, Brexit, EU-LAC Political Dialogue and COVID-19 responses. A Cariforum-EU development agenda to fuel post-pandemic Caribbean recovery is mooted with the additional value of harnessing the promise of the revised partnership.
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Prysyazhna-Gapchenko, Julia. VOLODYMYR LENYK AS A JOURNALIST AND EDITOR IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF UKRAINIAN EMIGRATION. Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, March 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.30970/vjo.2021.50.11094.
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In this article considered Journalistic and editorial activity of Volodymyr Lenika (14.06.1922–02.11.2005) – one of the leading figures of Ukrainian emigration in Germany. First outlined basic landmarks of his life and creation. Journalistic and editorial activity of Volodymyr Lenik was during to forty years out of Ukraine. In the conditions of emigration politically zaangazhovani Ukrainians counted on temporality of the stay abroad and prepared to transference of the created charts and instituciy on native lands. It was or by not main part of conception of liberation revolution of elaborate OUN under the direction of Stepan Banderi, and successfully incarnated in post-war years. Volodymyr Lenik, executing responsible commissions Organization, proved on a few directions of activity, which were organically combined with his journalistic and editorial work. As an editor he was promotorom of creation and realization of models of magazines «Avangard», «Krylati», «Znannia», «Freie Presse Korespondenz», newspapers «Shliakh peremogy». As a journalist Volodymyr Lenik left ponderable work, considerable part of which entered in two-volume edition «Ukrainians on strange land, or reporting, from long journeys». Subject of him newspaper-magazine publications directed on illumination of school, youth, student, cultural, scientific problems, organization and activity of emigrant structures, political fight of emigration, to dethronement of the antiukrainskikh Moscow diversions and provocations. Such variety of problematic of works of V. Lenika was directed in the river-bed of retaining of revolutionary temperament in the environment of diaspore, to bringing in of it to activity in public and political life. Problematic of him is systematized publicism and journalistic appearances, which was inferior realization of a few important tasks, namely to the fight for Ukrainian independence in new terms, cherishing and maintainance of national identity, counteraction hostile soviet propaganda. On an example headed Volodymyr Lenikom a magazine «Knowledge» some aspects are exposed him editorial trade.
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Bourrier, Mathilde, Michael Deml, and Farnaz Mahdavian. Comparative report of the COVID-19 Pandemic Responses in Norway, Sweden, Germany, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. University of Stavanger, November 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.31265/usps.254.
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The purpose of this report is to compare the risk communication strategies and public health mitigation measures implemented by Germany, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom (UK) in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic based on publicly available documents. The report compares the country responses both in relation to one another and to the recommendations and guidance of the World Health Organization where available. The comparative report is an output of Work Package 1 from the research project PAN-FIGHT (Fighting pandemics with enhanced risk communication: Messages, compliance and vulnerability during the COVID-19 outbreak), which is financially supported by the Norwegian Research Council's extraordinary programme for corona research. PAN-FIGHT adopts a comparative approach which follows a “most different systems” variation as a logic of comparison guiding the research (Przeworski & Teune, 1970). The countries in this study include two EU member States (Sweden, Germany), one which was engaged in an exit process from the EU membership (the UK), and two non-European Union states, but both members of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA): Norway and Switzerland. Furthermore, Germany and Switzerland govern by the Continental European Federal administrative model, with a relatively weak central bureaucracy and strong subnational, decentralised institutions. Norway and Sweden adhere to the Scandinavian model—a unitary but fairly decentralised system with power bestowed to the local authorities. The United Kingdom applies the Anglo-Saxon model, characterized by New Public Management (NPM) and decentralised managerial practices (Einhorn & Logue, 2003; Kuhlmann & Wollmann, 2014; Petridou et al., 2019). In total, PAN-FIGHT is comprised of 5 Work Packages (WPs), which are research-, recommendation-, and practice-oriented. The WPs seek to respond to the following research questions and accomplish the following: WP1: What are the characteristics of governmental and public health authorities’ risk communication strategies in five European countries, both in comparison to each other and in relation to the official strategies proposed by WHO? WP2: To what extent and how does the general public’s understanding, induced by national risk communication, vary across five countries, in relation to factors such as social capital, age, gender, socio-economic status and household composition? WP3: Based on data generated in WP1 and WP2, what is the significance of being male or female in terms of individual susceptibility to risk communication and subsequent vulnerability during the COVID-19 outbreak? WP4: Based on insight and knowledge generated in WPs 1 and 2, what recommendations can we offer national and local governments and health institutions on enhancing their risk communication strategies to curb pandemic outbreaks? WP5: Enhance health risk communication strategies across five European countries based upon the knowledge and recommendations generated by WPs 1-4. Pre-pandemic preparedness characteristics All five countries had pandemic plans developed prior to 2020, which generally were specific to influenza pandemics but not to coronaviruses. All plans had been updated following the H1N1 pandemic (2009-2010). During the SARS (2003) and MERS (2012) outbreaks, both of which are coronaviruses, all five countries experienced few cases, with notably smaller impacts than the H1N1 epidemic (2009-2010). The UK had conducted several exercises (Exercise Cygnet in 2016, Exercise Cygnus in 2016, and Exercise Iris in 2018) to check their preparedness plans; the reports from these exercises concluded that there were gaps in preparedness for epidemic outbreaks. Germany also simulated an influenza pandemic exercise in 2007 called LÜKEX 07, to train cross-state and cross-department crisis management (Bundesanstalt Technisches Hilfswerk, 2007). In 2017 within the context of the G20, Germany ran a health emergency simulation exercise with WHO and World Bank representatives to prepare for potential future pandemics (Federal Ministry of Health et al., 2017). Prior to COVID-19, only the UK had expert groups, notably the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), that was tasked with providing advice during emergencies. It had been used in previous emergency events (not exclusively limited to health). In contrast, none of the other countries had a similar expert advisory group in place prior to the pandemic. COVID-19 waves in 2020 All five countries experienced two waves of infection in 2020. The first wave occurred during the first half of the year and peaked after March 2020. The second wave arrived during the final quarter. Norway consistently had the lowest number of SARS-CoV-2 infections per million. Germany’s counts were neither the lowest nor the highest. Sweden, Switzerland and the UK alternated in having the highest numbers per million throughout 2020. Implementation of measures to control the spread of infection In Germany, Switzerland and the UK, health policy is the responsibility of regional states, (Länders, cantons and nations, respectively). However, there was a strong initial centralized response in all five countries to mitigate the spread of infection. Later on, country responses varied in the degree to which they were centralized or decentralized. Risk communication In all countries, a large variety of communication channels were used (press briefings, websites, social media, interviews). Digital communication channels were used extensively. Artificial intelligence was used, for example chatbots and decision support systems. Dashboards were used to provide access to and communicate data.
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Monetary Policy Report - July 2022. Banco de la República, October 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr3-2022.
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In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias