Academic literature on the topic 'Telecommunications in business'

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Journal articles on the topic "Telecommunications in business"

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Singh, N. P. "Competitive Landscape of Mobile Telecommunications Tower Companies in India." International Journal of Interdisciplinary Telecommunications and Networking 2, no. 1 (January 2010): 49–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/jitn.2010010104.

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With the entry of 3G and WiMAX players, the Indian mobile subscriber base is expected to reach 1110 million by the end of 2015. To meet mobile infrastructure demand, India will require approximately 350,000 to 400,000 mobile telecommunications towers in the next 7 to 8 years. Presently only 40% of mobile telecommunications towers are shared in India. The high growth of subscribers and initial cost of mobile telecommunications towers and license conditions will force mobile network operators to share infrastructure with other mobile network operators, specifically with new operators. The Indian government has allowed sharing of passive and active components of mobile telecommunication infrastructure. With the changing demand of the telecommunications infrastructure, many new telecommunications tower business entities and companies and mobile telecommunications tower business models are being explored. In this paper, the author presents the landscape of the mobile telecommunications tower industry in India, which consists of four types of companies and trends with respect to the strategies of telecommunication tower companies, especially tenancy ratio. Emerging features of the mobile telecommunication towers industry in India are also presented.
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Lewin, David. "Using Telecommunications for Competitive Advantage—the Approach of the European Multinationals." Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics 8, no. 1 (January 1997): 43–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/02601079x9700800105.

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This paper looks at the business drivers facing European companies and the way these drivers are changing their use of telecommunications. The findings are based on Ovum’s European Telecommunications Users Panel. This consists of over 100 international and multinational companies providing information to Ovum five times a year on their changing use of telecommunications. The paper looks at trends from the telecommunications manager’s viewpoint. It identifies three main forces which affect him: the business strategies of his organisation which, with improvements in economic climate, are moving from cost cutting to global business expansion. the changing information systems requirements of his organisation, where the demand for high bandwidth data services is growing rapidly the changing patterns of supply of telecommunication services—in terms of products available, price and quality of supply. Here competition is changing the situation rapidly Overall the paper shows that the role of the telecommunications manager in Europe is changing. Up until now the telecommunications manager has dealt with the operational and technical issues involved in running a private network for his company. Now he is adopting more of a strategic, business oriented role in which he matches business and information system needs to the most effective telecommunications solutions, selected from a range of competing suppliers.
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Nataliia, GESELEVA, and SHESTAKOVA Polina. "OPTIMIZATION OF BUSINESS PROCESSES OF A TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANY." INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC-PRACTICAL JOURNAL "COMMODITIES AND MARKETS" 40, no. 4 (December 22, 2021): 37–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.31617/tr.knute.2021(40)04.

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Background. Telecommunications play a significant role in the social and economic activities of society, providing operational or interactive (dialogue) transmission ofinformation. Today, none of the economic activities has a chance to survive without the participation of modern information and communication technologies. After all, the speed and quality of information transfer is a key factor in increasing competitiveness in the market. An important prerequisite for the competitiveness of telecommunications companies is to improve service and quality of customer service. The aim of the studyis to analyze the activities of a telecommunications company and optimize business processes to minimize errors, costs, improve the quality of services provided. Materials and methods. The information base of the research is the works of leading scientists, dictionaries, manuals, reference books, legislation in the field of telecommunications and information resources of the global Internet. To solve the above problems, a general scientific analytical method, a method of systematization and generalization of the problem, methods of economic and mathematical modeling, a method of modular design were used. Results. Theoretical information on the telecommunication sphere, features of development of telecommunication companies in modern conditions are analyzed. The system analysis of business processes of the telecommunication company is carried out and the ways of their optimization are investigated. A functional model of modern work organization (AS-IS) has been developed, which is implemented using CASE-tools BPwin 7.0 and reveals all stages of connecting a new client to the SMS hub from processing the client’s application to making a technical connection. Gantt chart illustrates the need to introduce business process automation to accelerate the connection of new customers. Conclusion. The business processes that can be optimized are highlighted, and it is proved that business process automation and parallel execution significantly speed up the process of connecting new customers, which reduces the company’s costs and provides a competitive advantage in attracting new customers.
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Shi, Tao, Peng Zhang, and Fang Cheng. "The Design and Application of Telecommunication Network Resources Abstract Model." Applied Mechanics and Materials 602-605 (August 2014): 3451–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.602-605.3451.

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Model Tao Shi ,Peng Zhang and Fang Cheng School of Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing 400065, China shitao12300@163.com Keywords: telecommunications network resources, resource model, object-oriented, virtualization technology, network management system Abstract. In order to manage and utilize telecommunication network resources more effectively, aiming at the shortage of the resource management of telecom network management system, through the study the concept of the shared information data (SID) model in the new generation of telecom operation support system (NGOSS) , according to the characteristics of the telecommunications network resources, telecommunications network resource model with object-oriented approach is proposed and designed. Meanwhile, Combined with telecommunication network business resource model to illustrate the mechanism of telecom network resource by users applications in network management system. Experiments have proved that resource model can provide powerful support for complex network management.
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Russell, Chris, Pete Barnsley, and Maff Holladay. "Business patterns within telecommunications." Production Planning & Control 12, no. 2 (January 2001): 188–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09537280150501284.

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Anandhita, Vidyantina Heppy. "Economic Value of Equalization of Access and ICT Infrastructure for Rural Communities." Jurnal Penelitian Pos dan Informatika 10, no. 2 (December 28, 2020): 113–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.17933/jppi.v10i2.314.

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The government has initiated access and telecommunication infrastructure equalization program in Indonesia by deploying BTS to provide signals in the frontier, outermost, and least developed (3T) regions and providing rural internet access services. Government investment through the provision of telecommunications and internet access in rural areas is expected to be able to provide economic benefits for improving the people’s welfare. This study aims to identify the economic benefits of equitable access and infrastructure in rural areas (mainly 3T villages) with the Ranti Generic IS/IT Business Value Table. Based on the study results, it can be concluded that in ideal conditions, equitable access to the internet and telecommunications infrastructure can contribute directly to cost efficiency for rural communities by reducing distribution costs and telecommunications costs. Also, the use of telecommunications and internet access can improve the people’s welfare by increasing business capacity and expanding market segmentation.
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Luo, Guande. "Application of Optical Network Transmission Technology in Telecommunication Network." Journal of Networking and Telecommunications 2, no. 3 (October 18, 2020): 62. http://dx.doi.org/10.18282/jnt.v2i3.1363.

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<p>In the telecommunication network, the optical network transmission system is one of the most important components. The system mainly includes two elements, namely transmission media and node equipment. In the specific operation process, the effective use of the system can fundamentally provide practical and effective support for the telecommunication network, and it is safer and more effective applied in the telecommunication support network and various business networks. Moreover, it can carry out long-distance and large-capacity business transmission. Optical network transmission system and technology has a vital direct impact on the safe operation and innovative development of telecommunications networks, so it is very important and necessary to analyze and discuss the application of this technology in telecommunications networks. This article focuses on the analysis and discussion of the application of optical network transmission technology in telecommunication network and the specific implementation strategy, aiming to provide some reference for relevant practitioners.</p>
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Anandhita, Vidyantina Heppy. "Economic Value of Equalization of Access and ICT Infrastructure for Rural Communities." Jurnal Penelitian Pos dan Informatika 10, no. 2 (December 28, 2020): 113. http://dx.doi.org/10.17933/jppi.2020.100203.

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<p><em>The government has initiated access and telecommunication infrastructure equalization program in Indonesia by deploying BTS to provide signals in the frontier, outermost, and least developed (3T) regions and providing rural internet access services. Government investment through the provision of telecommunications and internet access in rural areas is expected to be able to provide economic benefits for improving the people’s welfare. This study aims to identify the economic benefits of equitable access and infrastructure in rural areas (mainly 3T villages) with the Ranti Generic IS/IT Business Value Table. Based on the study results, it can be concluded that in ideal conditions, equitable access to the internet and telecommunications infrastructure can contribute directly to cost efficiency for rural communities by reducing distribution costs and telecommunications costs. Also, the use of telecommunications and internet access can improve the people’s welfare by increasing business capacity and expanding market segmentation.</em></p>
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Gregory, Mark A. "Telecommunications Performance Monitoring and Unlimited Data." Journal of Telecommunications and the Digital Economy 5, no. 1 (March 31, 2017): ii—iv. http://dx.doi.org/10.18080/jtde.v5n1.95.

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The Australian telecommunications industry has been slow to call for or to adopt new practices and the National Broadband Network has exacerbated the problem of technology adoption lag. There are two key issues facing telecommunication consumers today. The cost of optical networking has significantly reduced over the past five years so there is no justification for the network congestion that occurs on Australian telecommunication networks. To remedy this situation the introduction of performance monitoring is fully supported. It is time for the telecommunications industry to adopt new broadband business models that are based on the provision of unlimited data and a maximum of 90 to 95 per cent utilisation on optical network links.
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Atsu, Francis, Charles Agyei, William Phanuel Darbi, and Sussana Adjei-Mensah. "The impact of telecommunication revenue on economic growth: evidence from Ghana." African Journal of Economic and Management Studies 5, no. 2 (July 1, 2014): 195–208. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ajems-10-2011-0076.

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-run impact of telecommunications revenue and telecommunications investment on economic growth of Ghana for the time horizon 1976-2007. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses the Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron unit root test to explore the stationarity property of the variables and the Engle-Granger residual-based test of cointegration to model an appropriate restricted error correction model. Findings – The outcome of the analysis produced mixed results. Telecommunications revenue does not contribute significantly whilst telecommunications investment does. Practical implications – Policy makers will have to deal with a conundrum; while designing targeted policies that will attract more telecommunication investment in order to maximize the corresponding revenues and the economic growth it brings in its wake, they must at the same time find ways and resources to grow the economy to a point or threshold where revenue from telecommunications can have the much needed impact on their economies. Originality/value – The study is one of the first that has investigated the line of causality between telecommunication revenue and economic growth unlike previous research that mainly focused on the impact of telecommunication infrastructure on economic development.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Telecommunications in business"

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Or, Tin-lun, and 柯天倫. "Review of the deregulating telecommunications business and the regulatory environment in telecommunications business." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1998. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31269163.

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Or, Tin-lun. "Review of the deregulating telecommunications business and the regulatory environment in telecommunications business /." Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 1998. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B19872586.

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Weston, Christopher Philip Anthony. "Costing telecommunications services." Thesis, Imperial College London, 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.307352.

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Tripattana, Kanyika. "Telecommunications reform in Thailand : state-business relations." Thesis, University of Leicester, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/30552.

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This study is about relations between the Thai state and telecommunications business during the reform between 1980 and 2000. These relations have changed from a 'Bureaucratic Polity' model before the late 1980s to partnership during the 1990s. These changes were resulted from the internal economic and political development and the external force of globalization; both bring the internationalisation of state, capital and labour. Through the reform, the business sector is gaining its influence through the implementation of liberalization policy. However, this study argues that the Thai state has been able to maintain a certain degree of autonomy in relation to the business sector during the reform. In explaining Thai state-business relations, this study applies Robert Cox's 'Mediator' State and a 'Framework for Action' and Gramsci's notion of hegemony as an analytical approach. These combined theoretical insights not only help to explain the changing relations of the Thai state and business during the reform, they also assist in addressing the relations between the Thai state and the world telecommunications order, as well as revealing conflict and co-operation among state agencies and between state-business players involved in the reform.
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McCormack, Andrew. "A business continuity solution for telecommunications billing systems." [Denver, Colo.] : Regis University, 2008. http://165.236.235.140/lib/AMcCormack2008.pdf.

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Runge, D. A. "Using telecommunications for competitive advantage." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1985. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.235120.

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Leong, Gary. "Business network of telecommunication industry in Hong Kong /." Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 1996. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B18023939.

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Basalisco, Bruno. "User interaction and business model innovation in the telecommunications industry." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2009. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.509801.

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AJMAL, KHAN, and YANG HAN. "An Analysis of the Telecommunications Business in China by Linear Regression." Thesis, Högskolan Dalarna, Statistik, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:du-4826.

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In this paper, we study the influence of the National Telecom Business Volume by the data in 2008 that have been published in China Statistical Yearbook of Statistics. We illustrate the procedure of modeling “National Telecom Business Volume” on the following eight variables, GDP, Consumption Levels, Retail Sales of Social Consumer Goods Total Renovation Investment, the Local Telephone Exchange Capacity, Mobile Telephone Exchange Capacity, Mobile Phone End Users, and the Local Telephone End Users. The testing of heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity for model evaluation is included. We also consider AIC and BIC criterion to select independent variables, and conclude the result of the factors which are the optimal regression model for the amount of telecommunications business and the relation between independent variables and dependent variable. Based on the final results, we propose several recommendations about how to improve telecommunication services and promote the economic development.
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Kasim, Abdul. "Evaluating a business strategy for the telecommunications company of the future." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/34333.

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Books on the topic "Telecommunications in business"

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Rowe, Stanford H. Business telecommunications. Chicago: Science Research Associates, 1988.

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Rowe, Stanford H. Business telecommunications. 2nd ed. New York: Macmillan, 1991.

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Telecommunications for business. Boston: PWS-KENT Pub. Co., 1990.

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Donald, Riecks, ed. Introduction to business telecommunications. 2nd ed. Columbus: Merrill Pub. Co., 1988.

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Telecommunications and business strategy. Chicago: Dryden Press, 1991.

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Pareek, Deepak. Business Intelligence for Telecommunications. London: Taylor and Francis, 2006.

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Business intelligence for telecommunications. Boca Raton, FL: Auerbach Publications, 2007.

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Obaidat, Mohammad S., and Jalel Ben-Othman, eds. E-Business and Telecommunications. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-90428-9.

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Filipe, Joaquim, and Mohammad S. Obaidat, eds. E-business and Telecommunications. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-88653-2.

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Obaidat, Mohammad S., ed. E-Business and Telecommunications. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-67876-4.

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Book chapters on the topic "Telecommunications in business"

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Locker, Yvonne. "Telecommunications." In Business Workshop, 121–32. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-11727-7_12.

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Locker, Yvonne. "Telecommunications." In Business Skills, 170–82. London: Macmillan Education UK, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-13273-7_13.

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Taylor, Lester D. "Business Telecommunications Demand." In Telecommunications Demand in Theory and Practice, 65–84. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-0892-8_4.

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Grover, Kenneth C. "Telecommunications Terminals." In Foundations of Business Telecommunications Management, 25–37. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-2193-4_6.

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Grover, Kenneth C. "Telecommunications Switching." In Foundations of Business Telecommunications Management, 45–50. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-2193-4_8.

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Nicholson, Margaret. "Telecommunications and data transmission." In Mastering Business Administration, 82–99. London: Macmillan Education UK, 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-14248-4_5.

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Grover, Kenneth C. "Monopoly of Telecommunications." In Foundations of Business Telecommunications Management, 159–61. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-2193-4_30.

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Grover, Kenneth C. "Regulation of Telecommunications." In Foundations of Business Telecommunications Management, 163–77. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-2193-4_31.

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Grover, Kenneth C. "Local Telecommunications Networks." In Foundations of Business Telecommunications Management, 39–43. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-2193-4_7.

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Grover, Kenneth C. "Main Telecommunications Networks." In Foundations of Business Telecommunications Management, 51–56. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-2193-4_9.

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Conference papers on the topic "Telecommunications in business"

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Bekyarova-Tokmakova, Anna, Nevena Mileva, and Dimitar Tokmakov. "Classification of Business Processes in Telecommunications." In 2021 29th National Conference with International Participation (TELECOM). IEEE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/telecom53156.2021.9659690.

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Denic, Nebojsa, Zoran Nesic, Miroslav Radojicic, and Jasmina Vesic Vasovic. "Some considerations on business intelligence application in business improvement." In 2014 22nd Telecommunications Forum Telfor (TELFOR). IEEE, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/telfor.2014.7034609.

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Wulf, J., R. Zarnekow, and M. Duser. "Analysis of future telecommunication business models using a business model ontology." In 2010 9th Conference on Telecommunications Internet and Media Techno-Economics (CTTE). IEEE, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ctte.2010.5557706.

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Borivoje, Milosevic, Obradovic Slobodan, and Stojanovic Nenad. "Business Intelligence Development Studio." In 2011 19th Telecommunications Forum Telfor (TELFOR). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/telfor.2011.6143770.

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Avramov, Josif. "Innovative Approaches in Teaching Business and Economics of Telecommunications at NBU Department of Telecommunications." In 2020 28th National Conference with International Participation (TELECOM). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/telecom50385.2020.9299538.

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Radak, Zlata, and Vesna Radonjic Dogatovic. "Customized charging option for business customers." In 2016 24th Telecommunications Forum (TELFOR). IEEE, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/telfor.2016.7818719.

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Doko, Fisnik, Igor Mishkovski, and Sonja Filiposka. "Integrated business collaboration in the cloud." In 2012 20th Telecommunications Forum Telfor (TELFOR). IEEE, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/telfor.2012.6419487.

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Vukovic, Dijana R., and Igor M. Dujlovic. "Facebook messenger bots and their application for business." In 2016 24th Telecommunications Forum (TELFOR). IEEE, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/telfor.2016.7818926.

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Lin Peishan, Muhammad Khalil Shahid, and Tang Shoulian. "The business model of internet application services for telecommunications operators." In 2007 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management. IEEE, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ieem.2007.4419492.

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Li, Yongping, and Rongjun Li. "A Fuzzy Neural Network Model with Application to Telecommunications Business." In 2006 IEEE Asia-Pacific Conference on Services Computing. IEEE, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/apscc.2006.7.

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Reports on the topic "Telecommunications in business"

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Christie, Lorna, and Alison Tully. Security of UK Telecommunications. Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, August 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.58248/pn584.

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Telecommunications networks are essential for the day-to-day running of UK businesses and public services, however, concerns have been raised recently over their security. This POSTnote outlines the threats to these networks, the ability of networks to cope with disruption, and possible protective measures.
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Herbert, George, and Lucas Loudon. The Size and Growth Potential of the Digital Economy in ODA-eligible Countries. Institute of Development Studies (IDS), December 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.19088/k4d.2021.016.

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This rapid review synthesises evidence on the current size of the digital market, the countries promoting development of digital business and their approach through Trade Policies or Incentive Frameworks, and the current and potential size of the market with the UK / China / US / other significant countries. It draws on a variety of sources, including reports by international organisations (such as the World Bank and OECD), grey literature produced by think tanks and the private sector, and peer reviewed academic papers. A high proportion of estimates of the size of the digital economy come from research conducted by or for corporations and industry bodies, such as Google and the GSMA (which represents the telecommunications industry). Their research may be influenced by their business interests, the methodologies and data sources they utilise are often opaque, and the information required to critically assess findings is sometimes missing. Given this, the estimates presented in this review are best seen as ballpark figures rather than precise measurements. A limitation of this rapid evidence review stems from the lack of consistent methodologies for estimating the size of the digital economy. The OECD is attempting to develop a standard approach to measuring the digital economy across the national accounts of the G20, but this has not yet been finalised. This makes comparing the results of different studies very challenging. The problem is particularly stark in low income countries, where there are frequently huge gaps in the relevant data.
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Vargas-Herrera, Hernando, Juan Jose Ospina-Tejeiro, Carlos Alfonso Huertas-Campos, Adolfo León Cobo-Serna, Edgar Caicedo-García, Juan Pablo Cote-Barón, Nicolás Martínez-Cortés, et al. Monetary Policy Report - April de 2021. Banco de la República de Colombia, July 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr2-2021.

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1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
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