Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Systems of making'
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Azarova, А. A., and А. О. Азарова. "Bank system of making decision on the basis of multilevel multi–purpose systems of making decision." Thesis, Politechnika Zielonogorska, 1998. http://ir.lib.vntu.edu.ua//handle/123456789/23610.
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Hope, Susannah Jayne. "Decision making under spatial uncertainty /." Connect to thesis, 2005. http://repository.unimelb.edu.au/10187/1150.
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Errors are inherent to all spatial datasets and give rise to a level of uncertainty in the final product of a geographic information system (GIS). There is growing recognition that the uncertainty associated with spatial information should be represented to users in a comprehensive and unambiguous way. However, the effects on decision-making of such representations have not been thoroughly investigated. Studies from the psychological literature indicate decision-making biases when information is uncertain. This study explores the effects of representing spatial uncertainty, through an examination of how decision-making may be affected by the introduction of thematic uncertainty and an investigation of the effects of different representations of positional uncertainty on decision-making.Two case studies are presented. The first of these considers the effects on decision-making of including thematic uncertainty information within the context of an airport siting decision task. An extremely significant tendency to select a zone for which the thematic classification is known to be of high certainty was observed. The reluctance to select a zone for which the thematic classification is of low certainty was strong enough to sometimes lead to decision-making that can only be described as irrational.
The second case study investigates how decision-making may be affected by different representations of positional uncertainty within the context of maritime navigation. The same uncertainty information was presented to participants using four different display methods. Significant differences in their decisions were observed. Strong preferences for certain display methods were also exhibited, with some representations being ranked significantly higher than others.
The findings from these preliminary studies demonstrate that the inclusion of uncertainty information does influence decision-making but does not necessarily lead to better decisions. A bias against information of low certainty was observed, sometimes leading to the making of irrational decisions. In addition, the form of uncertainty representation itself may affect decision-making. Further research into the effects on decision-making of representing spatial uncertainty is needed before it can be assumed that the inclusion of such information will lead to more informed decisions being made.
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Vlado, Veldic. "GIS for spatial decision-making." Diss., University of Pretoria, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/29747.
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El, Zein Musadag. "Off-grid Wind Power Systems: Planning and Decision Making." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-396057.
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There are definitely many reasons for choosing off-grid wind power systems. Few key ones involve the positive enhancement of societies, economies and natural environments. From a project developers’ perspective these systems provide a large potential market, which can cover a wide range of applications with relatively reasonable costs. In spite of this, many challenges may interfere with the diffusion and the success of such systems. In the report we discuss the various factors affecting the implementation of off-grid wind power systems and demonstrate some of the challenges project developers may be facing during the planning stage. Some of these include the acceptance of stakeholders (local inhabitants in particular) and the securing of the financing of the projects. Another noted challenge lying outside the control of project developers was found to be the absence of encouraging policies and incentives. As a conclusion the thesis provides a set of self-interpreted recommendations along with a flow chart. The concluded summary indicates some key factors that project developers should be aware of and careful when dealing with, these which include: The choice of the site, verification of projects’ economics along with the securing of a convenient finance. The recommendations also point out the great advantage in having local developers as these tend to be more capable in building relations with the local citizens and politicians.
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Fairley, Andrew. "Information systems for tactical decision making." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 1994. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.241479.
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Clinch, Peter Charles. "Systems of reporting judicial decision making." Thesis, University of Sheffield, 1989. http://clok.uclan.ac.uk/20643/.
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Law reports, publications containing reports of cases heard in the courts, are one of the major sources of English law. However, the historical development and present day characteristics of this conmiunication of information system have never been comprehensively studied. Interleaved with the appraisal of contemporary comment on the system are the results of a bibliometric analysis of law reports published between 1511 and 1985, covering external influences acting on the system, the characteristics of reporters and publishing firms, reasons stated for publishing new titles, variations in format, frequency, delay, indexing standards, subject content and court coverage, with, in addition, detailed analysis of variations in the format of individual case reports. Comparison is made with investigations in the United States and Canada and two English enquiries into the law reporting system; unpublished evidence submitted to and transcripts of meetings of the Lord Chancellor's Law Reporting Committee, 19381940, are presented and evaluated for the first time. The law reports published in 1985 are subjected to very detailed analysis to determine coverage of cases by jurisdiction, courts and subjects, the extent of additional material provided by reporters (such as catchwords and headnotes), the length of judgements, delay in publication and duplication of coverage. The results of a citation analysis of all materials cited in law reports published in 1985 are presented to ascertain variations in the citation of sources from different jurisdictions, citation patterns by different courts and in different subject areas, and determine the use of unreported cases and the ageing of authority. Based on the results of all the analyses recommendations are made for the improvement of the information system with suggestions as to how they might be implemented; areas for further research are also highlighted.
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Barkalow, Daniel J. (Daniel James) 1977. "On making modular artificial intelligence systems." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/86648.
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Yasarer, Hakan. "Decision making in engineering prediction systems." Diss., Kansas State University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/16231.
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Doctor of PhilosophyDepartment of Civil Engineering
Yacoub M. Najjar
Access to databases after the digital revolutions has become easier because large databases are progressively available. Knowledge discovery in these databases via intelligent data analysis technology is a relatively young and interdisciplinary field. In engineering applications, there is a demand for turning low-level data-based knowledge into a high-level type knowledge via the use of various data analysis methods. The main reason for this demand is that collecting and analyzing databases can be expensive and time consuming. In cases where experimental or empirical data are already available, prediction models can be used to characterize the desired engineering phenomena and/or eliminate unnecessary future experiments and their associated costs. Phenomena characterization, based on available databases, has been utilized via Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for more than two decades. However, there is a need to introduce new paradigms to improve the reliability of the available ANN models and optimize their predictions through a hybrid decision system. In this study, a new set of ANN modeling approaches/paradigms along with a new method to tackle partially missing data (Query method) are introduced for this purpose. The potential use of these methods via a hybrid decision making system is examined by utilizing seven available databases which are obtained from civil engineering applications. Overall, the new proposed approaches have shown notable prediction accuracy improvements on the seven databases in terms of quantified statistical accuracy measures. The proposed new methods are capable in effectively characterizing the general behavior of a specific engineering/scientific phenomenon and can be collectively used to optimize predictions with a reasonable degree of accuracy. The utilization of the proposed hybrid decision making system (HDMS) via an Excel-based environment can easily be utilized by the end user, to any available data-rich database, without the need for any excessive type of training.
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Drevin, Lynette. "Making sense of information systems failures." Thesis, Middlesex University, 2014. http://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/14410/.
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Information systems (IS) are used almost everywhere around us and we cannot even conceive of a world without computerised systems. IS support essential functions in most areas and levels of society. These include education, business, leisure, and medical and scientific areas. Moreover, IS add to the competitiveness of companies and support the continuous change that takes place in business and its environment. Literature frequently reports on Information systems that fail or are abandoned in many domains and in many countries. Often IS are seen by users as underperforming, failing to meet expectations and not delivering value to customers. In order to reduce IS failures numerous studies have been conducted resulting in solutions being offered to improve the situation. Post-project reviews are often used to learn from mistakes. Social sciences regularly use narrative analysis methods to analyse stories to understand the experiences of people in settings such as psychology and education. This study borrows from the social sciences and proposes the use of narrative analysis in investigating IS failure research. A case history was identified in which IS stakeholders were asked to share their experiences regarding the development and use of the IS. Three narrative analysis approaches were applied in this study to analyse the accounts of the stakeholders taking into account the perspectives of multiple user groups. This was done in order to study the thesis statement: narrative analysis methods can be useful to make sense of Information systems’ failures. A multi-perspective framework for analysing IS stakeholders’ accounts was constructed, during the study, which could be used by developers to gain insight from the users of previous systems in order to learn from mistakes for subsequent systems. It is shown in this qualitative study, where narrative approaches were followed to gather, analyse and interpret the rich, multi-voiced and incoherent stories of IS stakeholders, that each approach helps to make sense from the accounts of stakeholders in different ways and highlight important elements. It is shown that narrative analysis methods that were used in this study can produce deeper insights into the experience of involved stakeholders. The insights obtained from applying narrative methods can be used for internal learning within organisations as well as externally within the discipline. It is shown in this study that all voices must be heard; the small stories of stakeholders should also be taken into account when listening to users. Reading between the lines reveals information that cannot be ignored if IS are to be developed to the satisfaction of all stakeholders. Indeed, systems become alive and take on a character of their own when the accounts are analysed on a deeper level and systems can therefore be designed in new ways that enable developers to address a wider set of constraints representing multiple groups of stakeholders. The contribution of this work is on more than one level. Information systems development practice can be influenced and enriched by gaining deeper insights that address the concerns of the diverse groups of stakeholders. The research methodology field of IS has also been impacted upon by the successful importing of methods from another domain and has thereby also given back to the discipline it has borrowed from. Narrative practice and theory can make use of the new insights gained in a new area of application, namely IS failures. The conclusion of this study is that narrative approaches and storytelling can be useful and applicable when investigating IS failures and improves the understanding of IS development and users’ concerns taking into account multiple perspectives of stakeholders.
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Vlado, Veldic. "GIS for spatial decision-making." Pretoria : [s.n.], 2005. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-11242005-101724/.
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Scott, Dan. "Microdata: making metadata matter." Evergreen International Conference, 2013. https://zone.biblio.laurentian.ca/dspace/handle/10219/1993.
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In this session, Dan Scott (the contributor of the schema.org microdata enhancement for Evergreen and a participant in the schemabibex effort to extend schema.org to better support bibliographic data) will discuss the origins of the microdata standards, explain how nominally machine-readable cataloguing data can fit into the machine-actionable semantic web, reflect on the impact that a microdata-enabled catalogue has had at Laurentian University to date, and offer some thoughts about the future of microdata – including the schema.org and RDFa Lite standards.WARNING: you may come away with ideas not only for enriching your library system, but for your web site and other web-based library applications as well! Microdata enables search engines and other automated processes to make sense of the data on a web page — like identifying the title, author, and identification number of a book from all of the other content on a given page. Web pages enhanced with microdata contribute to the semantic web, and in turn are more likely to be incorporated into search engines and advanced web applications. If it sounds like we should publish microdata from Evergreen’s catalogue, you will be pleased to know that Evergreen was (naturally) the first library system to incorporate microdata in its default public catalogue with the 2.2.0 release in June 2012.
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Francis, John Charles. "Qualitative system theory : a systems approach to modelling complex physical processes." Thesis, Heriot-Watt University, 1986. http://hdl.handle.net/10399/1080.
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Gasparini, Luca. "Severity sensitive norm analysis and decision making." Thesis, University of Aberdeen, 2017. http://digitool.abdn.ac.uk:80/webclient/DeliveryManager?pid=231873.
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Normative systems have been proposed as a useful abstraction to represent ideals of behaviour for autonomous agents in a social context. They specify constraints that agents ought to follow, but may sometimes be violated. Norms can increase the predictability of a system and make undesired situations less likely. When designing normative systems, it is important to anticipate the effects of possible violations and understand how robust these systems are to violations. Previous research on robustness analysis of normative systems builds upon simplistic norm formalisms, lacking support for the specification of complex norms that are often found in real world scenarios. Furthermore, existing approaches do not consider the fact that compliance with different norms may be more or less important in preserving some desirable properties of a system; that is, norm violations may vary in severity. In this thesis we propose models and algorithms to represent and reason about complex norms, where their violation may vary in severity. We build upon existing preference-based deontic logics and propose mechanisms to rank the possible states of a system according to what norms they violate, and their severity. Further, we propose mechanisms to analyse the properties of the system under different compliance assumptions, taking into account the severity of norm violations. Our norm formalism supports the specification of norms that regulate temporally extended behaviour and those that regulate situations where other norms have been violated. We then focus on algorithms that allow coalitions of agents to coordinate their actions in order to minimise the risk of severe violations. We propose offline algorithms and heuristics for pre-mission planning in stochastic scenarios where there is uncertainty about the current state of the system. We then develop online algorithms that allow agents to maintain a certain degree of coordination and to use communication to improve their performance.
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Hong, I.-Hsuan Ethan. "Decentralized Decision-making for Reverse Production Systems." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/14099.
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Reverse production systems are often comprised of several tiers with independent members competing at each tier. This research develops and designs a decision-making process for decentralized reverse production systems where each participant in the network determines its decisions in a self-interested way.
This dissertation includes three major parts. The first part develops a prototype model for a decentralized reverse production system with two tiers, collectors and processors, focusing on the coordination of transactions of recycled items between these two tiers. The collectors determine the individual material flow allocation mechanisms, based on predictions of the range of prices from the processors, that relate the flow amount to the overall vector of acquisition prices that will be offered by the processors to all the collectors. The processors compete for the flow from the collectors and reach an equilibrium state where no entity is willing to change its decisions.
In the second part, we extend the prototype model for a general multi-tiered recycling network comprised of the upstream boundary tier, several intermediate tiers, and the downstream boundary tier where each of the tiers has multiple independent entities. Recycled items flow from the top tier to the downstream tier, but acquisition prices are set from the downstream tier back to the upstream tier.
Finally the third part provides a comparison of centralized and decentralized models for reverse production systems and addresses several numerical insights of different system subsidy schemes.
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Pedersen, Sindre Sønvisen. "Decentralized Decision Making in Multi-Agent Systems." Thesis, Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, Institutt for teknisk kybernetikk, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-13461.
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The literature in the feld of multi-agent manufacturing control predom-inantly presents qualitative arguments to motivate its usage. This workpresents quantitative meaning to some of these arguments. The work alsodiscusses the control structuring process and puts it into perspective withmulti-agent control. A suitable example for the analysis of multi-agent con-trol is developed. A two layered approach for the control of this exampleprocess is proposed and it is shown that agents can be used in both of theselayers. An ad-hoc analysis is made of the top layer and simulation resultsshows that a distributed control approach introduces an optimality gap whencompared to a centralized approach. Further simulation results show thata layered approach to multi-agent control for the proposed process improvesoverall performance by increasing agent coordination.To date there has been a lack of industry adoption of multi-agent tech-nologies. The industry seems to favor control approaches that are well testedand with quantifiable evidence supporting their efficiency. The developmentof simulators that capture the full complexity of manufacturing processes isa time consuming task. The example process proposed in this work onlycaptures some core dynamics. Further work on presenting more quantifiablearguments for the use of multi-agent control is thus motivated throughoutthe thesis.The ideas presented in this thesis are included in the article MAS formanufacturing control: A layered case study by Pedersen et al. The articleis aimed for submission to the AAMAS 2012 conference in Valencia.
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Kaufman, Maike Jennifer. "Local decision-making in multi-agent systems." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2011. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:e8ebc360-906d-4733-9f24-f3ed98735e89.
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This thesis presents a new approach to local decision-making in multi-agent systems with varying amounts of communication. Here, local decision-making refers to action choices which are made in a decentralized fashion by individual agents based on the information which is locally available to them. The work described here is set within the multi-agent decision process framework. Unreliable, faulty or stochastic communication patterns present a challenge to these settings which usually rely on precomputed, centralised solutions to control individual action choices. Various approximate algorithms for local decision-making are developed for scenarios with and without sequentiality. The construction of these techniques is based strongly on methods of Bayesian inference. Their performance is tested on synthetic benchmark scenarios and compared to that of a more conservative approach which guarantees coordinated action choices as well as a completely decentralized solution. In addition, the method is applied to a surveillance task based on real-world data. These simulation results show that the algorithms presented here can outperform more traditional approaches in many settings and provide a means for flexible, scalable decision-making in systems with varying information exchange between agents.
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Farve, Niaja Nichole. "Designing personal systems for mindful decision making." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/105667.
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Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2016.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 169-177).
Today's personal technologies are generally seen as reducing mindfulness. Users are so absorbed in their devices that they behave in more distracted ways, are less engaged in face-to-face social interactions and increase their sedentary behaviors. This often results in behaviors and habits that are misaligned with the user's goals. Current attempts to use technology to improve well-being, such as fitness trackers, do not take advantage of some of the benefits that mobile, personal technologies have to offer. Specifically, increasingly mobile personal technologies have the opportunity to intervene in the moment when a person is making a decision with personalized, "just-in- time" nudges that may result in a more mindful decision. This thesis explores how to design personalized, wearable technologies that can support more mindful behavior. It investigates the various challenges that exists when designing such systems-.and provides design considerations for future systems. Human behavior researchers have argued that although a user may have the motivation and the ability to change behavior, a trigger is required to make a new behavior happen. This thesis specifically focuses on considerations that should be made when designing triggers for persuasive, wearable systems. These include ensuring the user's attention, utilizing contextual cues to determine timing of triggers and using personalized messages in a trigger. The thesis presents several pilots studies in using personal, wearable technologies to offer "just-in-time" triggers for behavior. The design and implementation of these systems is detailed and preliminary data regarding their effectiveness is discussed. These systems explore what challenges emerge when applying traditional behavior change theories on personalized, wearable systems.
by Niaja Nichole Farve.
Ph. D.
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Gryshchenko, O., and A. N. Dyadechko. "Marketing information systems in decision-making process." Thesis, Видавництво СумДУ, 2012. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/26023.
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Economides, M. W. "Multiple value systems for adaptive decision-making." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2015. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1466759/.
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Values, rewards, uncertainty and risk play a central role in economic and psychological theories of decision-making. Over the past decade, numerous experiments have used neuroimaging techniques to uncover the neural realization of such decision variables while individuals engage in a range of tasks. These have led to a consensus that economic choice involves interplay between multiple systems that enjoy both cooperative and competitive relations. In this thesis, I utilize functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and computational formalizations of choice to explore how these different brain systems interact to support adaptive decision-making. In Chapters 4 and 5, I present data from a task in which the inclusion of a dynamic environment required subjects to sometimes approach an option they would normally avoid, or avoid an option they would normally approach. This allowed me to uncover brain systems that track time-varying components of the environment, or immediate reward information, as well as the mechanisms by which these components are integrated. I found that adaptive control in this context involves downstream integration, via functional coupling, of distinct decision components that are computed in separate, often widespread, networks. Yet, choice variables represented in the striatum may in some cases be resistant to modulation, contributing to maladaptive behaviour. In Chapter 6, I investigate whether task training alters the way in which these different value systems manifest in choice; or more broadly, whether value computations in the brain adapt as humans become more proficient at internalizing models of the world. To address this, I trained subjects on a value-guided decision-making task for 3 consecutive days. The data are suggestive of a shift in the implementation of value-guided planning with training, from a more cumbersome, resource-dependant mechanism, to a more efficient and robust process that remains resistant to attentional load.
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McFarland, Sean Alan. "Decision making theory with geographic information systems support." CSUSB ScholarWorks, 2008. https://scholarworks.lib.csusb.edu/etd-project/3393.
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Decisions are made with varying degrees of effectiveness and efficiency and are influenced by a myriad of internal and external forces. Decision Support Systems (DSS) software can effectively aid decision making through processing the facts and producing meaningful outputs for use by the person or team in making the final choice. Geographic Information Systems (GIS), a form of DSS, are very effective when locational data are present. This thesis talks about using GIS software in decision making procedures.
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Judge, Kevin D. "Decision making in spectroscopy /." View online ; access limited to URI, 2007. http://0-digitalcommons.uri.edu.helin.uri.edu/dissertations/AAI3276987.
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Moore, Jeanne. "Visualisation of data to optimise strategic decision making." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/25478.
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1.1 Purpose of the study: The purpose of this research was to explain the principles that should be adopted when developing data visualisations for effective strategic decision making. 1.1.1 Main problem statement: Big data is produced at exponential rates and organisational executives may not possess the appropriate skill or knowledge to consume it for rigorous and timely strategic decision-making (Li, Tiwari, Alcock, & Bermell-Garcia, 2016; Marshall & De la Harpe, 2009; McNeely & Hahm, 2014). 1.1.2 Sub-problems: Organisational executives, including Chief Executive Officers (CEOs), Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) and Chief Operating Officers (COOs) possess unique and differing characteristics including education, IT skill, goals and experiences impacting on his/her strategic decision-making ability (Campbell, Chang, & Hosseinian-Far, 2015; Clayton, 2013; Krotov, 2015; Montibeller & Winterfeldt, 2015; Toker, Conati, Steichen, & Carenini, 2013; Xu, 2014). Furthermore, data visualisations are often not "fit-forpurpose", meaning they do not consistently or adequately guide executive strategic decision-making for organisational success (Nevo, Nevo, Kumar, Braasch, & Mathews, 2015). Finally, data visualisation development currently faces challenges, including resolving the interaction between data and human intuition, as well as the incorporation of big data to derive competitive advantage (Goes, 2014; Moorthy et al., 2015; Teras & Raghunathan, 2015). 1.1.3 Research Questions: Based on the challenges identified in section 1.1.1 and 1.1.2, the researcher has identified 3 research questions. RQ1: What do individual organisational executives value and use in data and data visualisation for strategic decision-making purposes? RQ2: How does data visualisation impact on an executive's ability to use and digest relevant information, including on his/her decision-making speed and confidence? RQ3: What elements should data analysts consider when developing data visualisations? 1.2 Rationale: The study will provide guidance to data analysts on how to develop and rethink their data visualisation methods, based on responses from organisational executives tasked with strategic decision-making. By performing this study, data analysts and executives will both benefit, as data analysts will gain knowledge and understanding of what executives value and use in data visualisations, while executives will have a platform to raise their requirements, improving the effectiveness of data visualisations for strategic decision-making. 1.3 Research Method: Qualitative research was the research method used in this research study. Qualitative research could be described as using words rather than precise measurements or calculations when performing data collection and analysis and uses methods of observation, human experiences and inquiry to explain the results of a study (Bryman, 2015; Myers, 2013). Its importance in social science research has increased, as there is a need to further understand the connection of the research study to people's emotions, culture and experiences (Creswell, 2013; Lub, 2015). This supports the ontological view of the researcher, which is an interpretivist's view (Eriksson & Kovalainen, 2015; Ormston, Spencer, Barnard, & Snape, 2014). The epistemology was interpretivism, as the researcher interviewed executives and data analysts (Eriksson & Kovalainen, 2015; Ritchie, Lewis, Nicholls, & Ormston, 2013). Furthermore, literature relating to decision-making supported the researcher's interpretivist view, as people generally make decisions based on what they know at the time (Betsch & Haberstroh, 2014). Therefore, the researcher cannot separate the participant from his/her views (Dhochak & Sharma, 2016).The population for this research comprised of 13 executives tasked with strategic decision-making, as well as 4 data analysts who are either internal (permanent employees) or external (consultants) of the organisation within the private sector. 1.4 Conclusion: RQ1: What do individual organisational executives value and use in data and data visualisation for strategic decision-making purposes? Based upon the findings, to answer RQ1, organisational executives must first be clear on the value of the decision. No benefit will be derived from data visualisation if the decision lacks value. The executives also stressed the importance of understanding how data relevancy was identified, based on the premise used by the data visualisation developers. Executives also value source data accuracy and preventing a one-dimensional view by only incorporating data from one source. Hence the value of dynamism, or differing data angles, is important. In terms of the value in data visualisation, it must provide simplicity, clarity, intuitiveness, insightfulness, gap, pattern and trending capability in a collaboration enabling manner, supporting the requirements and decision objectives of the executive. However, an additional finding also identified the importance of the executive's knowledge of the topic at hand and having some familiarity of the topic. Finally, the presenter of the visualisation must also provide a guiding force to assist the executive in reaching a final decision, but not actually formulate the decision for the executive. RQ2: How does data visualisation impact on an executive's ability to use and digest relevant information, including on his/her decision-making speed and confidence? Based on the findings, to answer RQ2, themes of consumption, speed and confidence can be used. However; the final themes of use and trust overlap the initial 3 theme. Consumption is impacted by the data visualisation's ability to talk to the objective of the decision and the ability of the technology used to map the mental model and thinking processes of the decision-maker. Furthermore, data visualisations must not only identify the best decision, but also help the executive to define actionable steps to meet the goal of the decision. Executives appreciate the knowledge and skill of peers and prefer an open approach to decision-making, provided that each inclusion is to the benefit of the organisation as a whole. Benchmark statistics from similar industries also add to the consumption factor. Speed was only defined in terms of the data visualisation design, including the use of contrasting elements, such as colour, to highlight anomalies and areas of interest with greater speed. Furthermore, tolerance limits can also assist the executive in identifying where thresholds have been surpassed, or where areas of underperformance have occurred, focussing on problem areas within the organisation. Finally, confidence is not only impacted by the data visualisation itself but is also affected by the executive's knowledge of the decision and the factors affecting the decision, the ability of the data visualisation presenter to understand, guide and add value to the decision process, the accuracy and integrity of the data presented, the familiarity of the technology used to present the data visualisation and the ability of the data visualisation to enable explorative and collaborative methods for decision-making. RQ3: What elements should data analysts consider when developing data visualisations? Based on the findings, to answer RQ3, the trust theme identifies qualitative factors, relating to the presenter. The value, consumption and confidence themes all point to the relevance of having an open and collaborative organisational culture that enables the effective use of data visualisation. Collaboration brings individuals together and the power of knowledgeable individuals can enhance the final decision. In terms of the presenter, his/her organisational ranking, handling of complexity and multiple audience requirements, use of data in the data visualisation, ability to answer questions, his/her confidence and maturity, professionalism, delivery of the message when presenting, knowledge of the subject presented, understanding of the executive's objectives and data visualisation methodology, creation of a "WOW" factor and understanding the data journey are all important considerations.
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Calliess, Jan-Peter. "Conservative decision-making and inference in uncertain dynamical systems." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2014. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:b7206c3a-8d76-4454-a258-ea1e5bd1c63e.
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The demand for automated decision making, learning and inference in uncertain, risk sensitive and dynamically changing situations presents a challenge: to design computational approaches that promise to be widely deployable and flexible to adapt on the one hand, while offering reliable guarantees on safety on the other. The tension between these desiderata has created a gap that, in spite of intensive research and contributions made from a wide range of communities, remains to be filled. This represents an intriguing challenge that provided motivation for much of the work presented in this thesis. With these desiderata in mind, this thesis makes a number of contributions towards the development of algorithms for automated decision-making and inference under uncertainty. To facilitate inference over unobserved effects of actions, we develop machine learning approaches that are suitable for the construction of models over dynamical laws that provide uncertainty bounds around their predictions. As an example application for conservative decision-making, we apply our learning and inference methods to control in uncertain dynamical systems. Owing to the uncertainty bounds, we can derive performance guarantees of the resulting learning-based controllers. Furthermore, our simulations demonstrate that the resulting decision-making algorithms are effective in learning and controlling under uncertain dynamics and can outperform alternative methods. Another set of contributions is made in multi-agent decision-making which we cast in the general framework of optimisation with interaction constraints. The constraints necessitate coordination, for which we develop several methods. As a particularly challenging application domain, our exposition focusses on collision avoidance. Here we consider coordination both in discrete-time and continuous-time dynamical systems. In the continuous-time case, inference is required to ensure that decisions are made that avoid collisions with adjustably high certainty even when computation is inevitably finite. In both discrete-time and finite-time settings, we introduce conservative decision-making. That is, even with finite computation, a coordination outcome is guaranteed to satisfy collision-avoidance constraints with adjustably high confidence relative to the current uncertain model. Our methods are illustrated in simulations in the context of collision avoidance in graphs, multi-commodity flow problems, distributed stochastic model-predictive control, as well as in collision-prediction and avoidance in stochastic differential systems. Finally, we provide an example of how to combine some of our different methods into a multi-agent predictive controller that coordinates learning agents with uncertain beliefs over their dynamics. Utilising the guarantees established for our learning algorithms, the resulting mechanism can provide collision avoidance guarantees relative to the a posteriori epistemic beliefs over the agents' dynamics.
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Johansson, Alexander. "Strategic Decision-Making in Platoon Coordination." Licentiate thesis, KTH, Reglerteknik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-275670.
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The need for sustainable transportation solutions is urgent as the demand for mobility of goods and people is expected to multiply in the upcoming decades. One promising solution is truck platooning, which shows great potential in reducing the fuel consumption and operational costs of trucks. In order to utilize the benefits of truck platooning to the fullest, trucks with different routes in a transportation network need coordination to efficiently meet and form platoons. This thesis addresses platoon coordination when trucks form platoons at hubs, where some trucks need to wait for others in order to meet, and there is a reward for platooning and a cost for waiting. Three contributions on the topic platoon coordination are presented in this thesis. In the first contribution, we consider platoon coordination among trucks that have pre-defined routes in a network of hubs, and the travel times are either deterministic or stochastic. The trucks are owned by competing transportation companies, and each truck decides on its waiting times at hubs in order to optimize its own operational cost. We consider a group of trucks to form a platoon if it departs from a hub and enters the road at the same time. The strategic interaction among trucks when they coordinate for platooning is modeled by non-cooperative game theory, and the Nash equilibrium is considered as the solution concept when the trucks make their decisions at the beginning of their journeys. In case of stochastic travel times, we also develop feedback-based solutions wherein trucks repeatedly update their decisions. We show in a simulation study of the Swedish transportation network that the feedback-based solutions achieve platooning rates up to 60 %. In the second contribution, we propose models for sharing the platooning profit among platoon members. The platooning benefit is not equal for all trucks in a platoon; typically, the lead truck benefits less than its followers. The incentive for transportation companies to cooperate in platooning may be low unless the profit is shared. We formulate platoon coordination games based on profit-sharing models, and in a simulation of a single hub, the outcomes of the platoon coordination games are evaluated. The evaluation shows that the total profit achieved when the trucks aim to maximize their own profits, but the platooning benefit is evened out among platoon members, is nearly as high as when each truck aims to maximize the total profit in the platooning system. In the last contribution, we study a problem where trucks arrive to a hub according to a stochastic arrival process. The trucks do not share a priori information about their arrivals; this may be sensitive information to share with others. A coordinator decides, based on the statistical distribution of arrivals, when to release the trucks at the hub in the form of a platoon. Under the assumption that the arrivals are independent and identically distributed, we show that it is optimal to release the trucks at the hub when the number of trucks exceeds a certain threshold. This contribution shows that simple and dynamic coordination approaches can obtain a high profit from platooning, even under high uncertainty and limited a priori information.Under de kommande decennierna förväntas efterfrågan på transport av varor och passagerare mångfaldigas, vilket innebär att behovet av hållbara transportlösningar är brådskande. En lovande lösning är konvojkörning, som visar stor potential att minska bränsleförbrukningen och driftskostnaderna för lastbilar. För att utnyttja fördelarna med konvojkörning till fullo behöver lastbilar koordineras för att effektivt mötas och bilda konvojer. Den här avhandlingen behandlar koordinering av lastbilar som kan bilda konvojer på transporthubbar, där vissa lastbilar måste vänta på andra lastbilar för att bilda konvojer, och det finns en belöning för konvojkörning och en kostnad för att vänta. Tre bidrag som behandlar konvojkoordinering presenteras i den här avhandlingen. Det första bidraget behandlar koordinering av lastbilar med förutbestämda rutter i ett transportnätverk med deterministiska eller stokastiska restider. Lastbilarna ägs av konkurrerande transportföretag, och varje lastbil beslutar om sina väntetider på hubbarna längs med sin rutt för att optimera sin driftskostnad. Vi antar att lastbilar bildar en konvoj om de avgår från en hubb och kör in på vägen samtidigt. Den strategiska interaktionen mellan lastbilar när de koordinerar för konvojbildning modelleras med icke-kooperativ spelteori, och vi betraktar Nashjämvikt som lösningskoncept när lastbilarna beslutar om sina väntetider i början av sina resor. I fallet med stokastiska restider utvecklar vi även lösningar där lastbilarna tillåts uppdatera sina väntetider längs med sina resor. I en simuleringsstudie över det svenska transportnätverket visas att när lastbilarna tillåts uppdatera sina väntetider uppnås en konjovkörningsgrad på 60%. I det andra bidraget utreds modeller för att dela på vinsten från konvojkörning. Fördelarna med konvojkörning är inte lika för alla lastbilar i en konvoj; vanligtvis är fördelen större för följarlastbilarna än för ledarlastbilen. Således kan incitamenten för transportföretag att samarbeta i form av konvojkörning vara låga om inte vinsterna från konvojkörning delas. Baserat på vinstdelningsmodeller formulerar vi konvojkoordineringsspel. I en simulering av en transporthubb utvärderar vi utfallet från konvojkoordinationsspelen. Det visar sig att den totala vinsten som uppnås när lastbilarna försöker maximera sina egna vinster, men vinsten från konvojkörning jämnas ut helt bland konvojmedlemmar, är nästan lika hög som när varje lastbil försöker att maximera den totala vinsten i systemet. I det sista bidraget studeras ett koordineringsproblem där lastbilar anländer till en transporthubb enligt en stokastisk ankomstprocess. Lastbilarna delar inte förhandsinformation om sina ankomster; detta kan vara känslig information att dela. En koordinator bestämmer, baserat på den statistiska sannolikhetsfördelningen av ankomster, när lastbilarna på transporthubben ska släppas iväg i form av en konvoj. Under antagandet att ankomsterna är statistiskt oberoende och likafördelade, visar vi att det är optimalt att släppa iväg lastbilarna från transporthubben i form av en konvoj när antalet lastbilar överskrider en viss tröskel. Detta bidrag visar att enkla och dynamiska koordineringsmetoder kan erhålla en hög vinst från konvojkörning, även under hög osäkerhet och begränsad förhandsinformation.
Länk till den offentliga granskningen tillkännages via: https://www.kth.se/profile/alexjoha
QC 20200609
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Dunford, Charlotte Natalie. "Making systems thinking routine systems engineering capability improvement in Rolls-Royce plc." Thesis, University of Bristol, 2015. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.702498.
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The business of Rolls-Royce pic makes the routine use of systems thinking a requirement for excellence. Systems Engineering enables systems thinking and their combination is systems practice. This study investigates the improvement of systems practice, focusing on the defence aerospace project design engineers at the Bristol site of the company. Best practice for the assessment and improvement of systems practice in engineering has not been established. Evidence of Systems Engineering impact is lacking. This study contributes to these areas. Systems practice is, in part, a way of thinking so a participative approach to conducting this research is necessary for success. An action research spiral is used as a framework for the research methodology. This research uses surveys, interviews and workshops to build a grounded theory, shown graphically as influence and system dynamic models, describing the engineers' ways of working, how systems practice contributes to it and how to better enable systems practice. The models articulate dynamic hypotheses of abstract concepts to the engineers in an accessible, engaging way and are used to aid discussions of the research findings and develop a shared understanding of the situation. This theory informs the development, implementation and assessment of improvement activities to assist engineers in choosing and using Systems Engineering techniques. This study found that among the engineers involved in the research the use of formal Systems Engineering techniques is usually valuable. Systems Engineering is valued but its lack of application does not reflect this. This study shows that the methodology used provides a means to identify the issues preventing systems practice, and the connections between these issues. This brings clarity and an evidence-base to the Systems Engineering capability improvement work within a company. This knowledge leads to specific improvement activities and a method through which to validate their success.
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Xu, Lu. "Hierarchical behavior planning in distributed decision making systems." Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2006. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1157037697.
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Borer, Nicholas Keith. "Decision Making Strategies for Probabilistic Aerospace Systems Design." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/10469.
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Modern aerospace systems design problems are often characterized by the necessity to identify and enable multiple tradeoffs. This can be accomplished by transformation of the design problem to a multiple objective optimization formulation. However, existing multiple criteria techniques can lead to unattractive solutions due to their basic assumptions; namely that of monotonically increasing utility and independent decision criteria. Further, it can be difficult to quantify the relative importance of each decision metric, and it is very difficult to view the pertinent tradeoffs for large-scale problems. This thesis presents a discussion and application of Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) to aerospace systems design and quantifies the complications associated with switching from single to multiple objectives. It then presents a procedure to tackle these problems by utilizing a two-part relative importance model for each criterion. This model contains a static and dynamic portion with respect to the current value of the decision metric. The static portion is selected based on an entropy analogy of each metric within the decision space to alleviate the problems associated with quantifying basic (monotonic) relative importance. This static value is further modified by examination of the interdependence of the decision metrics. The dynamic contribution uses a penalty function approach for any constraints and further reduces the importance of any metric approaching a user-specified threshold level. This reduces the impact of the assumption of monotonically increasing utility by constantly updating the relative importance of a given metric based on its current value. A method is also developed to determine a linearly independent subset of the original requirements, resulting in compact visualization techniques for large-scale problems.
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Perman, Lesley Marion Victoria. "Cognitive control and decision making in complex systems." Thesis, University of Hertfordshire, 1990. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.254501.
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Joneidy, S. "Making sense of the information systems use field." Thesis, University of Salford, 2015. http://usir.salford.ac.uk/35919/.
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Information Systems (IS) Use has been discussed for more than three decades. During this time various perspectives of IS Use are found in the literature, which leads to a complex picture. Thus the main research question is “How to make sense of the IS Use field?” To begin to address this question I discuss the diversity and development of IS Use discourses as contributing to this complexity. The standard ways of understanding diversity and development of perspectives or discourses as paradigms (Burrell and Morgan, etc.) are found to be insufficient. A deeper understanding of what paradigm means is required. Yet, discussion of what paradigms are in philosophy of science (Kuhn, etc.) is controversial and is unable to address both diversity and development in the IS Use field. This thesis argues that Dooyeweerd’s philosophy can provide fruitful understanding of these. This is given an indicative test by investigating ‘what is important’ to the authors of seminal papers who stimulated the main IS Use discourses. A desk study approach was used to aspectually analyse the relevant texts in these papers. The findings are that I) Dooyeweerd's philosophy can provide new insight into the nature of paradigms. II) Dooyeweerd's aspects can provide a rich understanding of the diversity and development of Information Systems Use paradigms. These give one way of making sense of IS Use field that overcomes problems of existing approaches. This way making sense of the IS Use field can contribute: I) To theory, first in IS, by bringing integration to the field of IS Use and stimulating new avenues of research, Second to philosophy of science, by Dooyeweerdian insight into the nature of paradigms; II) To methodology in IS by using Dooyeweerd’s aspects as a tool to investigate what is implicitly held as important to the authors; III) To Dooyeweerd research community by showing the application of it in addressing the diversity and development of IS Use perspectives. Limitations of the research and possible further research are discussed in the conclusion.
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Guillot, Stephen L. "Community warning systems: factors influencing citizen decision-making." Thesis, University of South Wales, 2013. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.591055.
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The ability to alert/warn all segments of a community regarding the potential of severe weather is essential for the safety and well-being of those affected. Such alerts/warnings must be tailored to accommodate all facets of the diverse population within communities. Essential to this is the construction and conveyance of a clear, concise message that identifies and encourages adequate, appropriate protective actions to be taken. This can be accomplished through the concerted efforts of communities to improve levels of preparedness with public education and outreach programmes, via collaboration of broadcast media, broadcast meteorologists and emergency management. Electronic web-based surveys were made available to the general public, to broadcast media and to emergency management personnel to collect quantitative data related to severe weather warning systems information. Qualitative data was obtained through the convening of six focus groups (three general public groups, one broadcast media group, one meteorology group and one emergency management group). The key results of this research indicated the need for: a broader community outreach and education programme related to severe weather; a comprehensive severe weather exercise programme; improvements in the NOAA Weather Radio and the Emergency Alert System (EAS); standardized back-up generators for broadcast radio; enhancement of the existing power grid; along with the need for increased capabilities of broadcast media and emergency management to alert and communicate with the non ~ English speaking and hard-of-hearing communities. In conclusion, this research indicated a continuing need for community education related to severe weather. In addition, there is also a need for standardization of initial disaster messages, along with conformity in the display of specific graphics and colours by television meteorologists
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Martin, Cheryl Elizabeth Duty. "Adaptive decision-making frameworks for multi-agent systems." Access restricted to users with UT Austin EID, 2001. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/utexas/fullcit?p3023557.
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Li, Yibing. "Making navigation easier in object-oriented programming systems." Thesis, Open University, 1992. http://oro.open.ac.uk/56452/.
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It has been reported that non-expert users have difficulties in finding reusable software components in large object-oriented programming systems and there is a need for help tools. The research reported in this thesis addresses this issue. Described in this thesis is the design of a tool called BRRR, which aims to help non-expert users overcome such difficulties. It is developed for Smalltalk-80, the target system of this research. BRRR is a query tool with a browsing capacity. It allows users to find necessary components by query. Its design is based on the 'retrieval by reformulation' paradigm (Williams, 1984) which was originally used in the domain of information retrieval. This paradigm allows users to incrementally specify a query by reformulation. When users specify an initial query, BRRR presents the users with an example component which satisfies the query. The users can then construct further queries by using the information presented by the system. In this way, users who are not familiar with the system or who do not know exactly what they want can be guided towards the appropriate information. During this research, two versions of BRRR were developed: BRRRl and BRRR2. BRRRl was developed initially, based on the 'retrieval by reformulation' principle. After its implementation, a formative, empirical evaluation was conducted on it with a group of users. Based on the findings of the evaluation, BRRR2, an improved version of BRRR1 was developed. BRRR2 incorporates enhanced classification methods and explanation facilities. This new version of the tool was then evaluated empirically with a group of ten users. The empirical evaluation of BRRR2 showed encouraging results. It demonstrates that the 'retrieval by reformulation' approach used in this research could be used successfully in helping users find reusable software components in object-oriented programming systems.
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Lange, Connor. "A GENERIC DECISION MAKING FRAMEWORK FOR AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS." DigitalCommons@CalPoly, 2013. https://digitalcommons.calpoly.edu/theses/992.
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With the rising popularity of small satellites, such as CubeSats, many smaller institutions previously incapable of developing and deploying a spacecraft have starting to do so. Institutions with a history of space flight, such as NASA JPL, have begun to put projects on CubeSats that would normally fly on much larger satellites. As a result, the institutions with space flight heritage have begun to port spacecraft software that was previously designed for much larger and more complex satellites to the CubeSat platform. Unfortunately for universities, who are the majority of all institutions devel- oping CubeSats, these ported systems are too large and complex to be a practical control solution. Student teams have a high turnover rate due to graduation and when a student becomes an expert on the control system, they graduate; most students get a maximum of two or three years of experience before graduating. This thesis proposes the Generic Decision Making Framework for Autonomous Systems (GDMFAS) as an accessible, easily extensible, component-based executive system architecture. The architecture is designed for Linux distributions, including the custom Linux distribution used by PolySat, and is implemented using C++. The proposed framework provides much of the same functionality as systems designed for larger satellites in a smaller, more straightforward pack- age, which includes both scheduling and executive components. This thesis also provides validation for the prototype implementation and evaluates the system according to six metrics. The metric analysis for this work is then compared with the metric analyses of previous works.
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Grobler, Schalk Willem. "Organisational structure and Elliot Jaques' stratified systems theory." Unisa, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/146.
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Conduct an exploratory study on operationally focussed managers within a South African company, using both quantitative and qualitative analysis, to determine the correlation between the required and actual levels of complexity and time-span of control at specific hierarchical levelsOrganisational design needs to be in line with capabilities of the individual-inrole. The structure of an organization directly impacts the overall effectiveness and ultimately the success of such an organization and the number of layers required in any given hierarchy is a product of the organization’s mission (Jaques, 1989). Stratified Systems Theory (Jaques, 1989) defines work in seven strata based on a basis of decision-making complexity. The research presented here identifies a specific organisation’s current level of work based on complexity and the time-span of decision-making. Research was done in one specific geographical region of a company operating in the Supply Chain and Logistics industry in South Africa. Qualitative data collection was done by means of interviews with a defined sample group that provided an adequate cross-section of the main functions of the business, however, the sampling technique used may not provide results representative of the entire population. ii The Brunel Institute for Organisation and Social Studies’ (BIOSS) Matrix of Working Relationships was used as main basis for reporting results. The research indicates that the organisation is presently, according to Jaques Stratified Systems Theory (Jaques, 1989), operating at one level below their intended level that will allow them to effectively meet their longterm strategic objectives. The report identifies shortcomings in terms of the current capabilities of the individual-in-role and the actual work requirements, setting a foundation for further analysis of individual capabilities for effective organisational design.
Graduate School of Business Leadership
MBL
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Cao, Elaine Phu. "Decision making in the HIV/AIDS supply chain." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/40108.
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Thesis (M. Eng. in Logistics)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2007."June 2007." Vita.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 54-55).
During the first two decades of HIV/AIDS awareness, the U.S. and foreign governments responded slowly to the crisis. In contrast today, as the pandemic continues, initiatives of nonprofit organizations have dramatically increased the amount of available funding. Countries must work to effectively allocate the influx of resources. This paper examines one area for improvement within the context of the developing world: supply chain management. The HIV/AIDS supply chain in a resource-poor setting differs from traditional networks. In order to properly manage operational activities, it is important to understand inherent system complexities, such as bureaucratic funding, forced ordering, shrinkage, and human capital constraints. This research explores these issues and identifies five scenarios that impact performance measures. The model, developed through an integrated supply chain approach, simulates the effects of scenarios on inventory level, cycle service level, and missed treatment dosages. Supply chain planning without accounting for system complexities leads to significant drops in service performance from theoretical expectations. Countries should order excess inventory to compensate for these issues.
(cont.) Funding efforts should focus on training resources to properly manage treatment demand and target operational changes that yield the highest improvements on performance metrics. Short-run and long-run tactics must be aligned to avoid the threat of widespread resistance, which results from inconsistent treatment and poor patient care. The goal of this research is to understand the HIV/AIDS supply chain and identify the best areas for resource investment.
by Elaine Phu Cao.
M.Eng.in Logistics
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Chuang, Poon-Hwei. "Fuzzy mathematical programming in civil engineering systems." Thesis, Imperial College London, 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/7802.
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Aiken, Milam Worth. "An expert systems approach to group decision support systems pre-session planning." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1991. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/31253019.html.
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Won, Henry Thome. "A system-of-systems modeling methodology for strategic general aviation design decision-making." Diss., Atlanta, Ga. : Georgia Institute of Technology, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/26469.
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Thesis (Ph.D)--Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009.Committee Chair: Mavris, Dimitri; Committee Member: Gallman, John; Committee Member: Lewe, Jung-Ho; Committee Member: Schrage, Daniel; Committee Member: Upton, Eric. Part of the SMARTech Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Collection.
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Nilekar, Shirish K. "A system-oriented analysis of team decision making in data rich environments." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/90698.
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Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, System Design and Management Program, 2013.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 78-80).
The information processing view of organizations [1] and subsequent works highlight the primary role of information processing in the effective functioning of markets and organizations. With the current wave of "big data" and related technologies, data-oriented decision making is being widely discussed [2] as a means of using this vast amount of available data for better decisions which can lead to improved business results. The focus of many of these studies is at the organization level. However, decisions are made by teams of individuals and this is a complex socio-technical process. The quality of a decision depends on many factors including technical capabilities for data analysis and human factors like team dynamics, cognitive capabilities of the individuals and the team. In this thesis, we developed a systems theory based framework for decision making and identified four socio technical factors viz., data analytics, data sensing, power distribution, and conflict level which affect the quality of decisions made by teams. We then conducted "thought experiments" to investigate the relative contribution of each of these factors to the quality of decisions. Our experiments and subsequent analyses show that while improved data analytics does result in better decisions, human factors have an out-sized contribution to the quality of decisions, even in data rich environments. Moreover, when the human factors in a team improve, the predictability of the positive impacts due to improvements in technical capabilities of the team also increases.
by Shirish K. Nilekar.
S.M. in Engineering and Management
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Griendling, Kelly Ann. "Architect: the architecture-based technology evaluation and capability tradeoff method." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/42880.
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The use of architectures for the design, development, and documentation of system-of-systems engineering has become a common practice in recent years. At the same time, acquisition guidance has been recently reformed to move from the bottom-up approach of the Requirements Generation System (RGS) to the top-down approach mandated by the Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS), which requires the use of DoDAF to support acquisition. Defense agencies have had difficulty adjusting to these new policies, and are struggling to determine how to meet new acquisition requirements. This research has developed the Architecture-based Technology Evaluation and Capability Tradeoff (ARCHITECT) Methodology to respond to these challenges and address concerns raised about the defense acquisition process. The methodology integrates existing tools and techniques for systems engineering and system of systems engineering with several new modeling and simulation tools and techniques developed as part of this research to fill gaps noted in prior CBAs. Additional criteria for the methodology were developed by leveraging lessons learned from similar fields, including management science and cognitive psychology. A suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) mission is used to demonstrate the application of ARCHITECT and to show the plausibility of the approach. Overall, it is shown that the ARCHITECT methodology results in an improvement over current CBAs in the criteria developed here.
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Hubbard, Ella-Mae. "Supporting the Configuration of Decision-Making Systems for Complex, Long-Life Engineered Systems." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2009. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.519717.
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Hennings, Chad F. "Designing realistic human behavior into multi-agent systems." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2001. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA397090.
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Thesis (M.S. in Modeling, Virtual Environments and Simulation (MOVES))--Naval Postgraduate School, Sept. 2001.Thesis advisors: Hiles, John ; Darken, Rudolph. "September 2001." Includes bibliographical references (p. 59). Also Available in print.
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Tang, Yu-wen S. M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "Tradespace as a decision making tool in bioprocess design." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/107362.
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Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, System Design and Management Program, Engineering and Management Program, 2016.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 80-83).
The field of systems engineering upholds that fundamental engineering principles exist and are applicable across different domains and contexts. In this thesis, a state-of-the art decision and design evaluation method developed for aerospace systems, Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration (MATE) is complemented with Design of Experiments (DoE) and applied for the first time to a bioprocess design problem. The implementation of DoE was necessary due to the high complexity of bioprocess systems, where a design variable (or a reasonably small number of design variables) cannot be easily identified to explain a given attribute of the product or process. DoE not only allows the identification of design variables that most influence a given attribute, but also allows the development of Single-Utility-Functions facilitating the incorporation of the Multi- Utility component of the MATE method. The proposed new MATE-DoE method was implemented in two case studies to assess its applicability; namely bio-production of DHA and bio-production of a lipase enzyme. Based on published DoE experimental results, utility functions and cost estimations were carried out to develop a Tradespace. The resulting Tradespace demonstrates: (a) the possible implementation of the proposed method, (b) that the use of Tradespace complements the traditional bioprocess development practice by allowing decision makers to choose an architecture that optimizes for more than one objective (multi-objective), (c) that the proposed method takes into consideration the complex decision making process of customers (multi-attribute), and (d) that simultaneous comparison analysis to competitors and market standards are possible using the method. While the method was proven to be applicable, it is relatively complex and the number of experiments and market data required might prevent its broad implementation. Also, potential errors and misleading results might result from inaccurate input data. Special attention and effort need to be put in accurate Single-Utility Function (SUF) weight designation to avoid this problem. The importance of assessing the complete bioprocess, as opposed to individual unit operations, is highlighted. Finally, further studies to develop "rules of thumb" in order to simplify the proposed MATE-DoE method is suggested.
by Yu-wen Tang.
S.M. in Engineering and Management
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Choo, Christopher Ledesma Weisen. "Real-time decision making in motorsports : analytics for improving professional car race strategy." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/100310.
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Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, System Design and Management Program, 2015.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (page 77).
We discuss features contained in a machine learning software developed at MIT for professional car racing, to improve the predictions of track position changes within a race. We study pit crew performance and driver performance within selected races, and find that good combined performance for both correlates to better finish positions. Secondly, we classify tracks based on tire wear and the ratio of 2 versus 4 tire change decisions for pit stops. We find that a driver's performance in early stages of the race is similar to performance in later stages, suggesting that final race outcomes may be inferred from earlier stages of the race. Thirdly, we look at how tire change decisions vary from track to track depending on tire wear, caution periods, and stages of the race to understand how teams adapt their tire change strategies as each race progresses. We propose heuristics based on these observations that may be used to improve the software. Next, we test whether the construction of the machine learning dataset using similar and different track characteristics has a discernible impact on the predictive capability of the software. Our tests indicate that it may be preferable to aggregate different races together because there is no distinct difference in the results when compared to only selecting similar races. Finally, we cover ideas about how new features could be implemented in the software, and touch on other factors affecting pit stop strategy in the quest for better predictive capability in the software.
by Christopher Ledesma Weisen Choo.
S.M. in Engineering and Management
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Dombayci, Canan. "Conceptual modelling for integrated decision-making in process systems." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/667022.
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This Thesis addresses the systematic construction of Decision Making Models (DMMs) from the conceptualization stage to its application in specific situations, with special emphasis on !he treatment of scenarios where there is a hierarchy of decision levels, common in the Process Systems (PS). Although the methodologies developed are generic, the scope of this Thesis is limited to the perspective of Process Engineering.
The central component required to construct a DMM is the conceptual description of the reality, which supports the system alisation of management procedures . During this description, two different dom ains can be identified: the PS Domain, useful to describe the structure of the process as such (physical reality and the way in which its elements are related), and the Management Domain, identified in this Thesis as associated with the Conceptual Constraints (CC) that describe the restrictions associated with the management of the process . In this way, the PS Domain includes concepts and relationships that appear in the control standards of the process followed by the company: the description of the process to be developed, the description of the physical equipment in which it is developed , and that of its interactions, giving rise to the control of the execution of the procedures; this domain should allow managing the construction, design,
operation and control of any manufacturing system. On the other hand, the CC Domain contains the information associated with the concepts and relationships that m ust be fulfilled to ensure a coherent set of decisions, with the purpose of identifying and representing the systematics to follow during the decision-making process, giving rise to the conceptual representation of this system and, finally, the construction of the corresponding DMM.
The first challenge addressed in this thesis is associated with the systematisation of conceptual modelling from semantic information, for the construction ofontologies from textual sources and a procedure to verify the interna! coherence of lhese sources. The application of this methodology has been used for the identification of the essential concepts and relationships in the PS Domain, allowing creating a generic, common and shared model, unlike the existing models.
In the next step, this PS Domain has been used to solve management problems in systems that comprise multi-level hierarchies. The resulting decision-making process allows integrating the decisions made al each level, ensuring their consistency from an approach that simultaneously considers the management of all available information (data and knowledge).
On the other hand, the introduction of the necessary concepts and relationships to ensure the feasibility of the process management decisions, through the CC Domain, allows the development of systematic DMM creation procedures: this domain classifies the constrains (balances, sequence, etc.), adds abstrae! elements to them (e.g.: produced and consumed amounts) and allows to generalize the relation of its compone nis with the information associated to the PS Domain.
The last part of this Thesis deals with the integration of the PS and CC Domains, and their application for the generation of new decision-making systems . For this, algorithms have been designed that, starting from the previously identified and classified restrictions, and patterns of DMMs also previously identified from existing cases, exploit the information available through the instances in the PS Domain, to generate new DMMs according to the user's specifications. lts use is illustrated through cases from different environments, demonstrating the generalisation capacity of the created systematics.Esta Tesis aborda la construcción sistemática de Modelos para la toma de Decisiones (DMMs) desde la etapa de conceptualización hasta su aplicación en situaciones concretas, con especial énfasis en el tratamiento de escenarios en los que existe una jerarquía de niveles de decisión, habitual en la Industria de Proceso (PS). Aunque las metodologías desarrolladas son genéricas, el alcance de esta Tesis se limita a la perspectiva de la Ingeniería de Procesos. El componente central requerido para construir un DMMs es la descripción conceptual de la realidad a la que se orienta, que a su vez respalda la sistematización de los procedimientos de gestión. Durante esta descripción, se pueden identificar planteamientos asociados a dos dominios diferentes: el Dominio del Proceso (PS), útil para describir la estructura del proceso como tal (realidad física y forma en la que se relacionan sus elementos), y el Dominio de Gestión, asociado a las Restricciones Conceptuales (CC) que describen las restricciones asociadas a la gestión del proceso. El Dominio PS incluye conceptos y relaciones que aparecen en los estándares de control del proceso que sigue la empresa: la descripción del proceso a desarrollar, la descripción de los equipos físicos en los que se desarrolla, y la de sus interacciones, que dan lugar al control de ejecución de los procedimientos; este dominio debe permitir la construcción, el diseño, la operación y el control de cualquier sistema de fabricación. Por su parte, el Dominio CC contiene la información asociada a los conceptos y las relaciones que deben cumplirse para asegurar un conjunto coherente de decisiones, con el propósito de identificar y representar la sistemática a seguir durante el proceso de toma de decisiones, dando lugar a la representación conceptual de esta sistemática y, finalmente, a la construcción del correspondiente DMM. El primer reto abordado en esta Tesis está asociado a la sistematización del modelado conceptual a partir de información semántica, para construcción de ontologías a partir de fuentes textuales y de un procedimiento para verificar la coherencia interna de dichas fuentes. La aplicación de esta metodología se ha utilizado para la identificación de los conceptos y las relaciones esenciales en el Dominio PS, permitiendo crear un modelo genérico, común y compartido, a diferencia de los modelos existentes. En el siguiente paso, este Dominio PS se ha utilizado para la resolución de problemas de gestión en sistemas que comprenden múltiples niveles de jerarquías funcionales. El proceso de toma de decisiones resultante permite integrar las decisiones tomadas en cada nivel, asegurando su coherencia a partir de un enfoque que contempla simultáneamente la gestión de toda la información disponible (datos y conocimiento). Por su parte, la introducción de los conceptos y relaciones necesarios para asegurar la factibilidad de las decisiones de gestión del proceso, a través del Dominio CC, permite el desarrollo de procedimientos sistemáticos de creación de DMMs: este Dominio clasifica las restricciones (balances, secuencia, etc.), agrega elementos abstractos a dichas restricciones (p.e.: cantidad producida y consumida) y permite generalizar la relación de sus componentes con la información asociada al Dominio PS. En la última parte de esta Tesis se aborda la integración de los Dominios PS y CC, y su aplicación para la generación de nuevos sistemas de toma de decisiones. Para ello, se han diseñado algoritmos que, partiendo de las restricciones anteriormente identificadas y clasificadas, y patrones de DMMs también previamente identificados a partir de casos ya existentes, explotan la información disponible a través de las instancias del Dominio PS, para generar de nuevos modelos de toma de decisión de acuerdo con las especificaciones del usuario. Su utilización se ilustra a través de casos procedentes de diferentes entornos, demostrando la capacidad de generalización de la sistemática creada.
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Alotaibi, Sati Fehaid. "A decision-making framework for purchasing product-service systems." Thesis, Cranfield University, 2016. http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/10252.
Full textAbstract:
As technologies become more complex and competition becomes tougher than ever before, manufacturers in the developed world acknowledge the significance of a competitive strategy in increasing sales to their customers. These strategies not only include offering the products, but also offering service contracts and integrated bundles of products and services, where the supplier is responsible for the required engineering services, typically for a relatively long period of time. This is also known as Product-Service Systems (PSS). For many commercial and governmental organisations, purchasing PSS remains challenging. Despite the considerable work that has been conducted to investigate and improve the methodological applications of the concept of PSS from PSS providers’ perspective, purchasing PSS positions the PSS customers halfway between PSS providers’ strategies and the PSS customer traditional strategies. Little effort in the literature describing how to assist PSS customers in the selection and evaluation of the PSS offerings has been observed. Consequently, this research attempts to satisfy the gap in the body of knowledge by proposing a decision-making framework to enable PSS customer to evaluate and select from the various PSS offers. The research began by reviewing the state-of-art of PSS, followed by the identification of the most likely characteristics exhibited by PSS customers. Then, the research investigates the existing PSS frameworks and analyses it to identify its appropriateness for use by PSS customers. The basis of the PSS framework is initially structured on the findings from the literature review, then modified by the result obtained from the field study in Saudi Arabia. The PSS framework is refined through expert feedback. Then, a computerised software tool was developed for the purpose of validation. Finally, the proposed PSS framework is validated by conducting five case studies. The proposed framework can guide purchasing practitioners through a step by step process, from evaluation to selection the most suitable PSS offers, by considering the degree of fitness between the PSS offerings and customer’s characteristics. This research has satisfied the industrial need and filled the gap in the literature, and has made a significant contribution to the knowledge on PSS customers to overcome the challenge of purchasing PSS.
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Foroughi, Behzad. "Decision-making in manufacturing systems, an IPA/fuzzy approach." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp01/MQ38629.pdf.
Full text
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Naidoo, Sherylene Shamma. "Business Intelligence Systems Input| Effects on Organizational Decision-Making." Thesis, Capella University, 2019. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=13805358.
Full textAbstract:
The purpose of this study was to examine the factors affecting the use of information from business intelligence systems (BIS) on decision-making culture. The relationship between analytical decision-making culture and BIS success factors was measured by data integration, analytic capabilities, information content quality, information access quality, and use of information in business processes. A quantitative statistical analysis approach was utilized to answer one research question. The construct of critical success factors was measured using a predefined model developed by Popovic, Hackney, Coelho, and Jaklic (2012). Survey responses were collected from 227 participants who were decision makers. The responses to the survey indicated a high degree of data integration, analytical capabilities, information content quality, information access quality, use of information in business processes, and analytical decision-making culture within organizations. Notably, the uploaded data reflected that data integration, analytical capabilities, and information content quality were not significantly related to analytical decision-making culture. However, information access quality and use of information in business processes were significantly and positively related to the analytical decision-making culture. With the exponential growth of business intelligence, managers are facing extreme challenges with rapid analytical decision making. Therefore, this study is not only significant to practitioners and the scholarly literature, but it also provided crucial information on BIS success factors for organizations in the Midwestern state.
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Reymondet, Lucie. "A framework for sense-making of complex sociotechnical systems." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/105642.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2016.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 126-133).
Contemporary engineering systems are often highly complex, large-scale, open sociotechnical systems, with strongly interwoven technical systems and social players within a dynamic environmental context that influences both social and technical spheres. Examples of such systems include online social networks, air and maritime traffic control systems, urban transportation systems, net-centric warfare systems and humanitarian disaster relief supply chains. Growing complexity in sociotechnical systems is often blamed for unanticipated (emergent) behaviors in the system or its development, such as accidents, cascading failures, operational bottlenecks, development cost overruns and delays. A literature review highlighted the types of complexity usually tackled by systems architecting researchers and practitioners. The scope of this thesis is sociotechnical systems, and it is apparent from literature and from the examination of three example systems that types of complexity are diverse among complex sociotechnical systems. A taxonomy is proposed that compiles major threads of this review. Essentially, complexity and emergence increase the difficulty of sense making, which can be briefly defined as the ability to foresee system-level impacts of architectural decisions. Complex sociotechnical systems present challenges for systems architects: they are difficult to understand, study, predict, control or change, and often display emergent behavior, which may or may not be desirable. This thesis goes a step beyond classifying complexity to propose a framework for guiding sense-making of complexity in sociotechnical systems architecting. The systems community has developed and instantiated many modeling approaches, practices, formal languages and toolsets, to help system architects and engineers with sense-making and decision-making. This work proposes a phenomena-based framework to leverage established modeling practices and guide the selection and composition of model-centric approaches for complex sociotechnical systems architecting. The framework is applied to the Collaborative Decision Making System at Paris Charles De Gaulle airport.
by Lucie Reymondet.
S.M.
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Bertuccelli, Luca Francesco 1981. "Robust decision-making with model uncertainty in aerospace systems." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/46554.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2008.Includes bibliographical references (p. 161-168).
Actual performance of sequential decision-making problems can be extremely sensitive to errors in the models, and this research addressed the role of robustness in coping with this uncertainty. The first part of this thesis presents a computationally efficient sampling methodology, Dirichlet Sigma Points, for solving robust Markov Decision Processes with transition probability uncertainty. A Dirichlet prior is used to model the uncertainty in the transition probabilities. This approach uses the first two moments of the Dirichlet to generates samples of the uncertain probabilities and uses these samples to find the optimal robust policy. The Dirichlet Sigma Point method requires a much smaller number of samples than conventional Monte Carlo approaches, and is empirically demonstrated to be a very good approximation to the robust solution obtained with a very large number of samples. The second part of this thesis discusses the area of robust hybrid estimation. Model uncertainty in hybrid estimation can result in significant covariance mismatches and inefficient estimates. The specific problem of covariance underestimation is addressed, and a new robust estimator is developed that finds the largest covariance admissible within a prescribed uncertainty set. The robust estimator can be found by solving a small convex optimization problem in conjunction with Monte Carlo sampling, and reduces estimation errors in the presence of transition probability uncertainty. The Dirichlet Sigma Points are extended to this problem to reduce the computational requirements of the estimator. In the final part of the thesis, the Dirichlet Sigma Points are extended for real-time adaptation. Using insight from estimation theory, a modified version of the Dirichlet Sigma Points is presented that significantly improves the response time of classical estimators. The thesis is concluded with hardware implementation of these robust and adaptive algorithms on the RAVEN testbed, demonstrating their applicability to real-life UAV missions.
by Luca Francesco Bertuccelli.
Ph.D.