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Anggara Purba, Reno Dias, M. Iqbal Sabit, and Joko Sulistio. "Evaluation of SME (Small Medium Enterprise) production system with discrete system simulation method." MATEC Web of Conferences 154 (2018): 01067. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201815401067.
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Like manufacturing companies that have flowshop production lines, SME facing the amount of flow time and makespan. Unfulfilled production targets, buildup on some machines that result in other machines being idle, increasing waiting times across multiple machines, and poor performance of workers are a series of problems facing SME. This article uses a discrete system simulation method to analyze and evaluate SME production lines to improve performance. Simulation is an appropriate tool used when experiments are needed in order to find the best response from system components. From the results of modeling and simulation done found the root of the problem is due to accumulation that occurs in one machine and the lack of utility of the operator in producing bags. So do the experimental design with 3 scenarios on the system that have been modeled and obtained some solutions that can be offered to solve the problem. Furthermore, after the alternative selection is obtained the best scenario based on the alternative selection test is the scenario3 by adding 2 new machines and 1 new operator on the production line obtained a significant output increase compared to other scenarios of approximately 30%. While the best scenario based on the minimum cost is the scenario2 by adding 2 new operators obtained output that is not much different than the scenario3. However, it has not been able to solve a series of problems facing SME. Therefore, the results of this study to solve a series of problems faced by SME is to add facilities in the production line of 2 new machines and 1 operator (scenario3).
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Rezaei, Abolfazl, Bahador Samadzadegan, Hadise Rasoulian, Saeed Ranjbar, Soroush Samareh Abolhassani, Azin Sanei, and Ursula Eicker. "A New Modeling Approach for Low-Carbon District Energy System Planning." Energies 14, no. 5 (March 3, 2021): 1383. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14051383.
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Designing district-scale energy systems with renewable energy sources is still a challenge, as it involves modeling of multiple loads and many options to combine energy system components. In the current study, two different energy system scenarios for a district in Montreal/Canada are compared to choose the most cost-effective and energy-efficient energy system scenario for the studied area. In the first scenario, a decentral energy system comprised of ground-source heat pumps provides heating and cooling for each building, while, in the second scenario, a district heating and cooling system with a central heat pump is designed. Firstly, heating and cooling demand are calculated in a completely automated process using an Automatic Urban Building Energy Modeling System approach (AUBEM). Then, the Integrated Simulation Environment Language (INSEL) is used to prepare a model for the energy system. The proposed model provides heat pump capacity and the number of required heat pumps (HP), the number of photovoltaic (PV) panels, and AC electricity generation potential using PV. After designing the energy systems, the piping system, heat losses, and temperature distribution of the centralized scenario are calculated using a MATLAB code. Finally, two scenarios are assessed economically using the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) method. The results show that the central scenario’s total HP electricity consumption is 17% lower than that of the decentral systems and requires less heat pump capacity than the decentral scenario. The LCOE of both scenarios varies from 0.04 to 0.07 CAD/kWh, which is cheaper than the electricity cost in Quebec (0.08 CAD/kWh). A comparison between both scenarios shows that the centralized energy system is cost-beneficial for all buildings and, after applying the discounts, the LCOE of this scenario decreases to 0.04 CAD/kWh.
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Nashih, AM Sa’dun, Kuncoro Harto Widodo, and Dyah Ismoyowati. "Inventory Level Analysis of Horticultural Commodities Exported by PT BSL from Central Java Indonesia to Singapore." KnE Life Sciences 3, no. 3 (January 1, 2016): 129. http://dx.doi.org/10.18502/kls.v3i3.407.
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<p>Horticultural commodities, in Indonesia, are one of the main clusters of export commodities. The demand of the commodities is relatively high due to the high economic level of consumers in Singapore. The exporter, e.g., PT BSL, had difficulties to meet the demand of Singapore’s importer. This problem will be analyzed with inventory system in the supply chain of vegetables and fruits exported from Central Java Indonesia to Singapore. To identify the problem, we combine a dynamic system approach and its validation. The data on existing conditions (with the level of rejection = 20%) were then formulated and modeled with two alternative scenarios, scenario1 and 2. In scenario 1, the level of rejection was set at the level of 10%, while scenario2 at the level of 30%. Based on the simulation results, it was found that the average level of inventory in the scenario 1 was at 661.9 kg per day, while in scenario 2 were 112.34 kg per day.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong>: dynamic systems, horticultural commodities, inventory, supply chain </p>
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Lindkvist, Emma, Magnus Karlsson, and Jenny Ivner. "System Analysis of Biogas Production—Part II Application in Food Industry Systems." Energies 12, no. 3 (January 28, 2019): 412. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12030412.
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Biogas production from organic by-products is a way to recover energy and nutrients. However, biogas production is not the only possible conversion alternative for these by-products, and hence there is interest in studying how organic by-products are treated today and which alternatives for conversion are the most resource efficient from a systems perspective. This paper investigates if biogas production is a resource efficient alternative, compared to business as usual, to treat food industry by-products, and if so, under what circumstances. Five different cases of food industries were studied, all with different prerequisites. For all cases, three different scenarios were analysed. The first scenario is the business as usual (Scenario BAU), where the by-products currently are either incinerated, used as animal feed or compost. The second and third scenarios are potential biogas scenarios where biogas is either used as vehicle fuel (Scenario Vehicle) or to produce heat and power (Scenario CHP). All scenarios, and consequently, all cases have been analysed from three different perspectives: Economy, energy, and environment. The environmental perspective was divided into Global Warming Potential (GWP), Acidification Potential (AP), and Eutrophication Potential (EP). The results show, in almost all the systems, that it would be more resource efficient to change the treatment method from Scenario BAU to one of the biogas scenarios. This paper concludes that both the perspective in focus and the case at hand are vital for deciding whether biogas production is the best option to treat industrial organic by-products. The results suggest that the food industry should not be the only actor involved in deciding how to treat its by-products.
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Santoso, Imam, Miftahus Sa'adah, and Siti Asmaul Mustaniroh. "Scenario development for improving supply chain performance using the system dynamics approach." International Journal of Engineering & Technology 8, no. 4 (November 10, 2019): 535. http://dx.doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v8i4.29796.
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Supply chain management integrates the entire business process of a product from upstream to downstream with the aim of delivering products to consumers in a timely manner and precise quantity without overriding profit. The application of dynamics systems is aimed to provide a holistic view of the system and to identify how interrelationship affects the system as a whole. System dynamics approach is used to analyze the efforts to improve performance. Besides being used as an analysis related to the model, system dynamics can also be used to formulate effective policy related to the profit distribution in case study of bell pepper supply chain. In this study, several scenarios were used as references to improve bell pepper supply chain performance in Regency X. The stake holders in the supply chain were farmer, middleman, and wholesaler. There were three sub-models used in system dynamics, namely the sub-model farmer, middleman, and wholesaler. The model in the system dynamics was then developed to find out the best scenario in improving the performance of bell pepper supply chain. The scenario developed consisted of 4 scenarios in which scenario 1 became the basic scenario as the comparison of simulation results. Then, Scenario 2 was a Supply-Demand arrangement to reduce losses obtained at the level of middleman and wholesaler. The policy of Scenario 3 was warehouse procurement, which was a model improvement scenario in Scenario 3. Lastly, Scenario 4 was an increase in the level of demand / market expansion without an increase in the number of production. The highest total supply chain profit from the four scenarios was in Scenario 3, while the lowest was Scenario 2.
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Kitessa, Bedassa Dessalegn, Semu Moges Ayalew, Geremew Sahilu Gebrie, and Solomon T/mariam Teferi. "Optimization of urban resources efficiency in the domain of water–energy–food nexus through integrated modeling: a case study of Addis Ababa city." Water Policy 24, no. 2 (January 31, 2022): 397–431. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wp.2022.213.
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Abstract This study aims to understand the long-term (2020–2050) urban water–energy–food (WEF) resources access and sustainability in Addis Ababa city through a nexus modeling approach. Several feasible scenarios in line with improving WEF resources supply and access through conservation, system rehabilitation and technology input are explored. The water system scenarios include rehabilitation and conservation scenario, water supply enhancement scenario, technology input scenario and integrated water improvement scenario. The energy scenario includes energy conservation scenario and new renewable supply enhancement scenarios and integration of both scenarios as integrated energy scenario. The food system scenarios include crop yield productivity and irrigation water use efficiency scenarios of urban agricultural system. The integrated WEF nexus scenario is the integration of all scenarios under one nexus framework. The results are evaluated against baseline scenario. At a system level, the integrated water scenario result provides a water saving potential of 26 and 52% from the baseline scenario by 2030 and 2050, respectively, whereas the integrated energy use scenario saves energy by as much as 22 and 48%. For respective years, under the integrated WEF nexus scenario, the integrated water use scenario for low energy intensity reduces the energy use for urban water system by 23 and 72% from the baseline scenario. Similarly, urban food production have also shown enhancement. Urban food production system in Addis Ababa city is relatively small and does not significantly affect the food import from other parts of the country. Overall, the results WEF nexus modeling approach revealed the importance of exploring integrated nexus approach to sustainable urban water energy and food development and management as a first attempt at the urban scale.
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Xiao, Yang, Qinli Xiong, and Kaiwen Pan. "What Is Left for Our Next Generation? Integrating Ecosystem Services into Regional Policy Planning in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China." Sustainability 11, no. 1 (December 20, 2018): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11010003.
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Land use/Land cover (LULC) changes as a result of policy planning influence ecosystem structures, processes, and functions, which are the basis for providing a wide range of ecosystem services (ES). There is an increasing consensus about the importance of integrating ES into ecological policy but quantifying the potential impacts of different policy on ES has proven difficult. We designed a remote sensing, geographic information system and scenario analysis-based approach to estimate and analyze the relationship between ES (soil conservation and carbon sequestration) and ecological policy designed to improve human welfare in the Chongqing municipality in the upper reaches of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China; a densely populated, highly modified watershed with serious soil erosion and flood hazard. Three alternative scenarios in 2050 were modeled for the Three Gorges Reservoir Area watershed. The model GEOMOD was used to predict future LULC changes due to policy planning. The ES models (Universal Soil Loss Equation model and Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model) were designed to inform decisions, with an aim to align economic forces with conservation. We examine policy effectiveness by comparing scenarios for 2050 (Scenario1: Maintain current policy with no considerations of ES; Scenario2: Integrate ES into policy planning; Scenario3: Integrate ES into policy planning in view of the need of local people). Scenario-based LULC change analysis revealed that if the current afforestation policy continues (scenario 1), total ES would be further increased in 2050 due to expansion of forest cover. However, by targeting policy to improve ES provision (scenarios 2 and 3), ecological risks of soil loss can be significantly reduced and carbon sequestration enhanced. Scenario 3, thus, provided the best future environmental development scenario considering the need of local people in each region for ES. This scenario will theoretically help the Three Gorges Dam to harvest more ecological benefits through improvements in soil conservation and carbon sequestration. This study highlights the observation that including ES in policy planning and has a great potential to generate opportunities to maximize ES. This study highlights that including ES in policy planning has a great potential to generate opportunities to maximize ES. Hence, there is a need to encourage proper implementation of ecological policy to maintain and improve ES.
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Zhang, Shu Teng, Ya Jie Dou, and Qing Song Zhao. "Evaluation of Capability of Weapon System of Systems Based on Multi-Scenario." Advanced Materials Research 926-930 (May 2014): 3806–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.926-930.3806.
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The capability planning is a fundamental task when designing a Weapon System of Systems (WSOS). Uncertainties exist when building WSOS. It is difficult to select the most appropriate alternatives under the background of system operations. The programming of capability of WSOS is a multi-criteria decision-making problem. To resolve this problem, a scenario-based multi-criteria decision-making methodology is proposed. Scenario describes the future situation may occur, and also presents the uncertainty of reality. In this paper, scenario was modeled by the key variables in which experts and stakeholders are interested. TOPSIS was also improved based on multiple scenarios. Finally, the method is validated by an example of armored weapon systems.
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Çelik, Muhammed, and Zehra Vildan Serin. "A system dynamics approach to food security: The case of Turkey." International Journal of ADVANCED AND APPLIED SCIENCES 9, no. 2 (February 2022): 22–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2022.02.003.
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Predicting a sustainable food safety policy for the near future is among Turkey's priority problems. In this context, this study aims to predict Turkey's sustainable food safety policies. For this reason, the system dynamics model, which is a dynamic cycle-based method with stock and flow diagrams, is used in this paper. This study supposed the six different scenarios for 2020 and 2050. Data were selected as population, productivity rate, arable land fertility rate, and annual food consumption (per capita). The purpose of creating these scenarios; To determine the most appropriate policy to ensure food safety in Turkey. In the first scenario, we assumed that the current situation continues. In the second scenario, the average productivity rate was increased by 1.5%. The third scenario assumes that annual per capita food consumption rises to 1.2 tonnes per year. In the fourth scenario, the total fertility rate is accelerated by 2%. In the fifth scenario, we assumed that the arable land loss rate decreased by 1/3. Finally, we assumed that the sixth scenario covers all the second, third, fourth, and fifth scenarios and that 2 points reduce food losses. In conclusion, the findings show that food security responds positively in scenarios 2 and 6. However, in other scenarios, food security is negatively affected. The findings show that the sixth scenario is the best-case scenario. To ensure food security, it is necessary to reduce arable land losses and food waste. Training farmers and control of the food supply chain will be beneficial for sustainable food security in Turkey. We recommend that policymakers consider these recommendations.
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Tang, Xiangying, Yan Hu, Zhanpeng Chen, and Guangzeng You. "Flexibility Evaluation Method of Power Systems with High Proportion Renewable Energy Based on Typical Operation Scenarios." Electronics 9, no. 4 (April 10, 2020): 627. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/electronics9040627.
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The development of renewable energy represented by wind, photovoltaic and hydropower has increased the uncertainty of power systems. In order to ensure the flexible operation of power systems with a high proportion of renewable energy, it is necessary to establish a multi-scenario power system flexibility evaluation method. First, this study uses a modified k-means algorithm to cluster operating scenarios of renewable energy and load to obtain several typical scenarios. Then, flexibility evaluation indices are proposed from three perspectives, including supply and demand balance of the zone, power flow distribution of the zone and transmission capacity between zones. Next, to calculate the flexibility evaluation indices of each scenario—and according to the occurrence probability of each scenario—we multiplied the indices of each scenario by the scenario occurrence probability to obtain comprehensive evaluation indices of all scenarios. Based on the actual historical output data of renewable energy and load of a southern power system in China, a flexibility evaluation was performed on the modified IEEE 14 system and modified IEEE 39 system. The results show that the proposed clustering method and flexibility indices can effectively reflect the flexibility status of the power system.
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van Oost, Ellen, Stefan Kuhlmann, Gonzalo Ordóñez-Matamoros, and Peter Stegmaier. "Futures of science with and for society: towards transformative policy orientations." Foresight 18, no. 3 (June 13, 2016): 276–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-10-2014-0063.
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Purpose How to derive policy implications from five future scenarios of transformed research and innovation (R&I) systems? This paper analyzes methodological and content issues of five future scenarios of transformed R&I systems. The aim of this paper is to provide an outlook on strategic policies capable of facilitating or moderating these transformative changes in R&I practices is discussed in light of overarching intentions to foster “responsible” ambitions (in Europe and beyond, discussed as responsible research and innovation, RRI). Design/methodology/approach The paper elaborates a four-step methodology to assess the scenario’s policy implications: first, by articulating the scenario implications for six core dimensions of R&I systems; second, an RRI assessment framework is developed to assess in each scenario opportunities and limitations for transforming R&I systems towards responsibility goals; the third involves a cross-scenario analysis of similarities and differences between the scenarios, allowing the identification of robust policy options that make sense in more than one scenario. The last analytical step includes again the richness of the individual scenario assessments aiming to provide a broader outlook on transformative policy orientations. Findings The paper concludes with outlining the contours of a future-responsible R&I system together with some suggestions for transformative policy orientations that aim to govern the R&I system towards such a future, as a source of inspiration and reflection. Research limitations/implications The analysis is based on five future scenarios that do not systematically cover future developments external to the R&I system. Practical Implications An outlook of strategic policies capable of facilitating or moderating these transformative changes in R&I practices is discussed in light of the overarching European Union goal of encouraging the performance of RRI. Originality/value This paper provides inspirational anticipatory strategic intelligence for fostering the responsible ambitions of research with and for society.
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Xu, Zhicheng, Gang Lu, and Jiujin Zhao. "Multi-scenario generation technology considering extreme scenarios in energy system modeling." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 546 (August 12, 2020): 022057. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/546/2/022057.
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Hu, Z. Y., Li Yang Xie, and Xiao Jin Zhang. "The Optimal Combination Research of System Configuration and T&M Policy of Standby Safety System." Advanced Materials Research 544 (June 2012): 6–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.544.6.
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The unavailability equations of several aging scenarios of standby safety component are derived and the risk of standby safety system is quantified. The different maintenance strategies are adopted for no aging scenario and several aging scenarios respectively. The two kind of test and maintenance (T&M) policies are adopted for no aging scenario and several aging scenarios. A numerical example is introduced for the illustration. The system unavailabilities under different configurations of parallel safety system and T&M policies are computed and compared. It can be derived that the combination of different T&M policies and configurations is significant effect on the risk of standby safety system and optimal STI and T&M interval.
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Pan, Xing, Lunhu Hu, Ziling Xin, Shenghan Zhou, Yanmei Lin, and Yong Wu. "Risk Scenario Generation Based on Importance Measure Analysis." Sustainability 10, no. 9 (September 7, 2018): 3207. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10093207.
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A risk scenario is a combination of risk events that may result in system failure. Risk scenario analysis is an important part of system risk assessment and avoidance. In engineering activity-based systems, important risk scenarios are related to important events. Critical activities, meanwhile, mean risk events that may result in system failure. This article proposes these definitions of risk event and risk scenario based on the characteristics of risk in engineering activity-based systems. Under the proposed definitions, a risk scenario framework generated based on importance measure analysis is given, in which critical activities analysis, risk event identification, and risk scenario generation are the three main parts. Important risk events are identified according to activities’ uncertain importance measure and important risk scenarios are generated on the basis of a system’s critical activities analysis. In the risk scenario generation process based on importance analysis, the importance degrees of network activities are ranked to identify the subject of risk events, so that risk scenarios can be combined and generated by risk events and the importance of scenarios is analyzed. Critical activities are analyzed by Taguchi tolerance design, mathematical analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation methods. Then the degrees of uncertain importance measure of activities are solved by the three methods and these results are compared. The comparison results in the example show that the proposed method of uncertain importance measure is very effective for distinguishing the importance level of activities in systems. The calculation and simulation results also verify that the risk events composed of critical activities can generate risk scenarios.
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Luo, Li Zhe, Xue Hong Yang, Wen Zhen Yu, and Shao Hua Pan. "Diversion System Scenarios Optimization Considering Indicators Correlation." Advanced Materials Research 1065-1069 (December 2014): 2554–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.1065-1069.2554.
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The decision-making indicators of hydropower engineering diversion scenario are always related with diversion risk, and for determining the optimal scenario, correlation analysis and decoupling for indicators is the key problem. Using k-additive fuzzy measure to characterize and decouple the relevance of indicators on the base of the analysis and quantization of indicators, and determining the weights of indicators according to maximum fuzzy measure entropy principle, finally the synthetic appraisal value for diversion scenarios can be calculated with choquet integral to rank and select optimal scenario. The case study shows that the decision-making method is effective for characterizing and decoupling the relevance of the indicators and enhancing the decision-making veracity to provide an effective method for the diversion scenario decision of hydropower engineering.
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Gürer, Eren. "Equity-efficiency implications of a European tax and transfer system." Social Choice and Welfare 57, no. 2 (March 19, 2021): 301–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00355-021-01314-1.
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AbstractThis study simulates three income tax scenarios in a Mirrleesian setting for 24 EU countries using data from the 2014 Structure of Earnings Survey. In scenario 1, each country individually maximizes its own welfare (benchmark). In scenarios 2 and 3, total welfare in the EU is maximized over a common budget constraint. Unlike scenario 2, the social planner of scenario 3 differentiates taxes by country of residence. If a common tax and transfer system were implemented in the EU, countries with a relatively higher mean wage rate—particularly those in Western and some of the Northern European countries—would transfer resources to the others. Scenario 2 implies increased labor distortions for almost all countries and, hence, leads to a contraction in total output. Scenario 3 produces higher (lower) marginal taxes for high- (low-) mean countries compared to the benchmark. The change in total output depends on the income effects on labor supply. Overall, total welfare is higher for the scenarios involving a European tax and transfer system despite more than two thirds of all the agents becoming worse off relative to the benchmark. A politically more feasible integrated tax system improves the well-being of almost half of all the EU but considerably reduces the aggregate welfare benefits.
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Gheorghita, Stefan Valentin, Martin Palkovic, Juan Hamers, Arnout Vandecappelle, Stelios Mamagkakis, Twan Basten, Lieven Eeckhout, et al. "System-scenario-based design of dynamic embedded systems." ACM Transactions on Design Automation of Electronic Systems 14, no. 1 (January 2009): 1–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/1455229.1455232.
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Glocker, E., and D. Schmitt-Landsiedel. "Modeling of temperature scenarios in a multicore processor system." Advances in Radio Science 11 (July 4, 2013): 219–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/ars-11-219-2013.
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Abstract. In modern CMOS integrated Systems-on-Chip global temperature variations arise as well as local fluctuations in regions of high activity, resulting in the arise of local hot spots. This in turn can greatly affect reliability and life-time of a chip. Economically affordable processor packaging cannot be provided for the worst case hot spot scenario. In a multicore system a reciprocal influence between the temperatures of neighbouring cores occur leading to increasing core temperature compared to a single core. This results in the need to monitor and regulate the operating temperature during runtime in order to keep it at tolerable values. This can be done in an easy way in an invasive architecture. In this paper the temperature distributions of cores in a multicore system are simulated for various scenarios. Different task allocation techniques and application characteristics as well as different physical conditions such as package types, material parameters and cooling all result in different system power scenarios. The impact of different scenarios which affect the system temperature scenario is investigated. The results are analysed and compared to determine the worst case scenario. With regard to simulation results and practicability the best temperature levelling measures are chosen.
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Azimi, Ahmad Nadim, Sébastien M. R. Dente, and Seiji Hashimoto. "Analyzing Waste Management System Alternatives for Kabul City, Afghanistan: Considering Social, Environmental, and Economic Aspects." Sustainability 12, no. 23 (November 25, 2020): 9872. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12239872.
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Our earlier work identified social issues of stakeholders who are highly exposed to poor social performance in the current waste management system (WMS) of Kabul city, Afghanistan. The present work builds on earlier findings to elaborate four alternative scenarios with better social outcomes. For each scenario of the current system, greenhouse gas (GHG) and economic assessments were conducted. Results show that Scenario 2, considering increase waste collection coverage, recycling, unsanitary landfilling, and integration of informal workers, was found as the best alternative. Scenario 3, which added a source-separated system to Scenario 2, was the second-best alternative. These two scenarios address social issues and can reduce GHG emissions, save costs, and provide more jobs than the current system. In contrast, the absence of recycling in Scenario 1, and the conversion of unsanitary landfill into sanitary landfill in scenario 4 result in higher costs and GHG emissions, even though they deal with social issues and generate higher jobs to the existing waste management practice.
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Savushkin, Sergey, Vladimir Borodin, and Vladimir Tsyganov. "INFORMATION AND LOGICAL COMPONENT OF SCENARIO SIMULATION." ITNOU: Information technologies in science, education and management 115 (2021): 70–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.47501/itnou.2021.1.70-76.
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This article discusses the possibilities of developing a scenario modeling technology based on an expandable knowledge base, including formulas, indicators, models, calculations, scenari-os, and an information base of indicators. The technology supports a hierarchical structure of models and scenarios. A unified template for the formation of algorithms for the operation of computational programs is presented. The efficiency of this technology is confirmed by soft-ware implementation in the form of a maquette of the system, which has been tested on the calculations of scenarios for the development of the transport complex in the diversified structure of the country's economy.
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Kwon, Soon Ho, Donghwi Jung, and Joong Hoon Kim. "Development of a Multiscenario Planning Approach for Urban Drainage Systems." Applied Sciences 10, no. 5 (March 6, 2020): 1834. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10051834.
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A traditional urban drainage system (UDS) planning approach generally considers the most probable future rainfall scenario. However, this single scenario (i.e., scenario-optimal) planning approach is prone to failure under recent climatic conditions, which involve increasing levels of uncertainty. To overcome this limitation, an alternative is to consider multiple scenarios simultaneously. A two-phase multi-scenario-based UDS planning approach was developed. Scenario-optimal solutions were determined for a set of scenarios in Phase I, as the traditional planning approach, while common elements across the scenarios were identified and used to consider components-wise regret cost concept for Phase II optimization, from which a compromise solution was sought. The storm water management model was dynamically linked with the harmony search algorithm for each phase optimization model. The proposed approach was demonstrated in the planning of the grid-type drainage networks of S-city. The compromise solution was compared with the scenario-optimal solutions (Phase I) with respect to cost effectiveness and system performance under scenarios that were not considered in the planning phase.
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Suryani, Erma, Ulfa Emi Rahmawati, and Alifia Az Zahra. "Improving Maize Production and Farmers’ Income Using System Dynamics Model." Journal of Agricultural Science 14, no. 6 (May 15, 2022): 68. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/jas.v14n6p68.
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Maize demand for feed, industry, and consumption is increasing in line with the increase in population and industry, while the supply of maize does not meet the demand. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the significant variables that affect maize cultivation and scenarios to increase maize production and farmers’ income using simulation model. As a method to develop the models, a system dynamics simulation model is used to accommodate internal and external variables that affect the production and farmers’ income which can be done using organic fertilizer, the integration between land expansion and organic fertilizer, and the implementation of precision agriculture. The simulation results show that land area, use of fertilizers, and technology adoption affect the production and income of maize farmers. The scenarios developed include organic fertilizer scenario, expansion and organic fertilizer scenario, and precision agriculture scenario. The resulting scenario can be used as a recommendation for the government and stakeholders in developing strategies and policies related to a sustainable maize farming system that can help increase the production and income of maize farmers.
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Li, Ni, Min He, Zhi Ming Ren, and Guang Hong Gong. "CGF-SDP: Development of Simulation Scenario and Scenario Editor." Applied Mechanics and Materials 441 (December 2013): 431–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.441.431.
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Military Scenario Definition Language (MSDL) is intended to provide a standard mechanism for loading Military Scenarios independent of the applications. Some customized scenario specifications lack scalability and interoperability with Command and Control (C2) applications. And how to integrate MSDL with simulation models still needs further implementation. This paper extended and modified MSDL to propose a feasible simulation scenario specification based on our existed CGF (Computer Generated Force) model system. A CGF-SDP (Scenario Development tool) was also developed to facilitate generating course of action (COA) of a military scenario graphically based on a GIS system. A simulation scenario was generated by this editor and it was effectively used in a combat simulation system’s execution process.
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Salman, Nurcholis. "OPERATIONAL OF SOLID WASTE HANDLING IN SUBANG DISTRICT." Volume 5 No. 2 September 2021 5, no. 2 (September 17, 2021): 91–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.23969/jcbeem.v5i2.4470.
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The operational technique of waste management in Subang Regency uses simulations in the form of three scenarios, namely scenario-1 is a scenario that has been running so far (existing), in which recycling activities have not yet developed, so it is practically only a collection-transport-disposal system. a better scenario than Scenario-1, in which there are already recycling activities in the TPA, both in the formal and informal sectors (scavenging) and Based on the projections for each scenario above, it is found that Scenario-3 is a moderate scenario, because: the volume of waste transportation to the landfill is the minimum, the volume of waste that must be removed to the landfill is also the minimum which automatically has the minimum volume of landfill among the 3 (three) proposed scenarios. This scenario makes the transportation system efficient, but requires a larger investment to facilitate facilities and infrastructure. However, this is not the case in Scenario-1, in this scenario, the budget required for the procurement of facilities and infrastructure is relatively lighter than the needs in the other two scenarios.
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Carvalho, Caio Victor Damasceno, and Thereza Cristina Calmon de Bittencourt. "Breeding objectives for a Nellore cattle rearing system." Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira 50, no. 9 (September 2015): 814–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s0100-204x2015000900010.
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Abstract:The objective of this work was to define the traits that should be included as breeding objectives for Nellore cattle, according to simulations with a bio-economic model for rearing systems. The economic values (EVs) of the traits were calculated as the differences between the profits due to an increased performance of 1% in each trait, with the others traits remaining constant. To determine the impact of each selection on the revenue system, two scenarios were simulated based on the traits being selected. In the first scenario, the adopted selection criteria were: weaning weight (WW), weaning rate (WR), yearling weight (YW), and mature cow weight (MCW). In the second scenario, the cumulative productivity (CP) of dams was used as an indirect evaluation of the performance of calves, with all the other traits included, except WW. In the first scenario, an EV of R$ 1.44 kg-1 was obtained for WW. In the second scenario, an EV of R$ 2.91 kg-1 was obtained for CP. The trait with the highest EV in both scenarios was WR, which enhanced the profits by R$ 3.21 for each 1% increased performance. The meat price paid to the producer is the factor with the greatest impact on the EVs of all examined traits.
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Yang, Lina, and Zhongtian Liu. "Modeling and verification of train departure scenario for next generation train control system." MATEC Web of Conferences 336 (2021): 02008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/202133602008.
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As a complex and safety-critical system, any failure in the Next Generation Train Control System (NGTC) departure scenario may cause serious personal injuries and property losses. It is very necessary to study NGTC scenario scheme and effective modeling and verification methods. This paper investigates the key technologies of the NGTC, optimizes the system structure and redistribution functions, and proposes the train control system scheme and typical operating scenarios. Firstly, the structure, equipment function and information interaction of NGTC are analyzed, and the operation scenarios of the system scheme are designed. This paper also uses UML language to describe the train departure scenario, and uses NuSMV modeling to verify accessibility and certainty of the scenario scheme. The results show that, the scheme proposed in this paper provides a reference for the design and implementation of the NGTC.
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Gao, Feng, Jianli Duan, Yingdong He, and Zilong Wang. "A Test Scenario Automatic Generation Strategy for Intelligent Driving Systems." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2019 (January 15, 2019): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/3737486.
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In this paper, a methodology of automatic generation of test scenarios for intelligent driving systems is proposed, which is based on the combination of the test matrix (TM) and combinatorial testing (CT) methods together. With a hierarchical model of influence factors, an evaluation index for scenario complexity is designed. Then an improved CT algorithm is proposed to make a balance between test efficiency, condition coverage, and scenario complexity. This method can ensure the required combinational coverage and at the same time increase the overall complexity of generated scenarios, which is not considered by CT. Furthermore, the way to find the best compromise between efficiency and complexity and the bound of scenario number has been analyzed theoretically. To validate the effectiveness, it has been applied in the hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) test of a lane departure warning system (LDW). The results show that the proposed method can ensure required coverage with a significantly improved scenario complexity, and the generated test scenario can find system defects more efficiently.
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Хранилов, В. П., П. В. Мисевич, and А. Э. Ермилов. "MODELS FOR DESCRIBING AND SUPPORTING AUTOMATED SYSTEM SCENARIOS." СИСТЕМЫ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ И ИНФОРМАЦИОННЫЕ ТЕХНОЛОГИИ, no. 4(82) (December 1, 2020): 18–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.36622/vstu.2020.72.37.004.
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В статье представлены модели описания сценариев функционирования автоматизированных систем (АС). Вводится и анализируется категория "жизненный цикл сценариев АС". Наиболее важными этапами жизненного цикла сценария являются следующие: этап формирования событийного набора для формирования сценария, этап выполнения последовательности сценарных событий и этап ситуационного анализа внешней и внутренней среды события. В статье предложена математическая модель функционирования АС, которая используется для поддержки этапа выполнения последовательности сценарных событий и основана на принципе информационной логистики: каждый параметр (набор данных) находится в нужном месте в АС, "точно в срок" и в нужном формате. Для поддержки ситуационного анализа предлагается модифицированная фреймовая модель. Ситуационный анализ используется для разработки алгоритмов событий и определения следующего события в сценарии. Модифицированная фреймовая модель основана на использовании нечетких логических процедур в фреймовой сети. The paper presents models for describing the operating scenarios of automated systems. The authors introduce and analyze the category “the life cycle of automated system scenarios”. The life cycle consists of a sequence of stages. The leading success factor of any scenario is the support of the scenario during all stages of its life cycle. The most important stages of the scenario life cycle are the following: the stage of forming the event set for generating the scenario, the stage of performing the sequence of scenario events and the stage of situational analysis of the external and internal environment of the event. In the article it is proposed to use a theoretical set model in order to select an element from a set of alternatives. The elements are events for designing a scenario. The model uses fuzzy logic and is based on the process of controlling an array of parameters if variants are available. The model is used to support the stage of forming a set of events for generating the scenario. The mathematical model of automated system operation which is used to support the stage of performing the sequence of scenario events is suggested in the article. The model is based on the principle of information logistics: each parameter (a set of data) is in the right place in the automated system, ‘just-in-time’ and in the required format. A modified frame model is proposed to support situational analysis. The situational analysis is used to operate the event algorithms and to determine the next event in the scenario. The modified frame model is based on the use of fuzzy logic procedures in a frame network.
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Sun, Boyang, and Xiaohua Yang. "Simulation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Xiong’an New Area Based on System Dynamics Model." Water 11, no. 5 (May 24, 2019): 1085. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11051085.
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In order to comprehensively evaluate the water resources carrying capacity in Xiong’an New Area, a system dynamics (SD) model was established to evaluate the regional water resources carrying capacity, for which several scenarios were designed: the original development scenario, the accelerated industrialization scenario, the environmental governance scenario, and the optimization development scenario. The results show that, compared with the original development scenario, the water resources carrying capacity in Xiong’an New Area can be improved in other scenarios, but a water supply and demand gap will be generated due to the lack of groundwater overdraft and a water transfer project. In 2026, under the accelerated industrialization scenario, the population carrying capacity will be 2.652 million, and the water supply and demand gap will be 1.13 × 108 m3; under the environmental governance scenario, the population carrying capacity will be 2.36 million, and the water supply and demand gap will be 0.44 × 108 m3; under the optimal development scenario, the population carrying capacity will be 2.654 million, and since the supply of water resources will be greater than the demand, there will not be a gap between supply and demand, making it the most feasible scenario to effectively alleviate the tension between industry restructuring, environmental management, and water resources development and utilization. The findings of this study can provide reference and decision support for optimizing regional water resources allocation and enhancing water resources carrying capacity in Xiong’an New Area.
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Dongsheng, Chen, He Yan, and Zhou Mengqian. "Research on operation scenario based aircraft power system architecture analysis and modelling." E3S Web of Conferences 271 (2021): 01017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202127101017.
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Aircraft power system is a complex system consisting of the power generation system, the power management and distribution system, and the power consumption system, which accounts for the aircraft's major fuel consumption and emissions. This paper proposes a scenario-based comprehensive power requirement analysis and system architecture methodology in order to alleviate the risk of systems over-design and discoordination caused by traditional bottom-up load collection and individual system design. Starting from the operation scenario, system functions are identified and corresponding physical architecture and power loads are analysed. Given the complexity of operation scenarios and aircraft power system, model-based system engineering methodology is applied to the top-down aircraft power system architecture design. SysML tool is used to carry out to analyse the aircraft power system architecture during taxi scenario, which provides great advantages on model tracing and reuse.
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Zhu-Zhou, Fangfang, Roberto Gil-Pita, Joaquín García-Gómez, and Manuel Rosa-Zurera. "Robust Multi-Scenario Speech-Based Emotion Recognition System." Sensors 22, no. 6 (March 18, 2022): 2343. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s22062343.
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Every human being experiences emotions daily, e.g., joy, sadness, fear, anger. These might be revealed through speech—words are often accompanied by our emotional states when we talk. Different acoustic emotional databases are freely available for solving the Emotional Speech Recognition (ESR) task. Unfortunately, many of them were generated under non-real-world conditions, i.e., actors played emotions, and recorded emotions were under fictitious circumstances where noise is non-existent. Another weakness in the design of emotion recognition systems is the scarcity of enough patterns in the available databases, causing generalization problems and leading to overfitting. This paper examines how different recording environmental elements impact system performance using a simple logistic regression algorithm. Specifically, we conducted experiments simulating different scenarios, using different levels of Gaussian white noise, real-world noise, and reverberation. The results from this research show a performance deterioration in all scenarios, increasing the error probability from 25.57% to 79.13% in the worst case. Additionally, a virtual enlargement method and a robust multi-scenario speech-based emotion recognition system are proposed. Our system’s average error probability of 34.57% is comparable to the best-case scenario with 31.55%. The findings support the prediction that simulated emotional speech databases do not offer sufficient closeness to real scenarios.
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Jakimi, A., A. Sabraoui, E. Badidi, A. Salah, and M. El Koutbi. "USING UML SCENARIOS IN B2B SYSTEMS." IIUM Engineering Journal 11, no. 1 (June 21, 2010): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.31436/iiumej.v11i1.50.
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Scenarios has become a popular technique for requirements elicitation and specification building. Since scenarios capture only partial descriptions of the system behavior, an approach for scenario composition and/or integration is needed to produce more complete specifications. The Unified Modeling Language (UML), which has become a standard notation for object-oriented modeling, provides a suitable framework for scenario acquisition using Use Case diagrams and Sequence or Collaboration diagrams. In this paper, we suggest an algorithmic and tool support for composing and integrating scenarios that are represented in form of sequence diagrams. We suggest four operators (;: sequential operator, ||: concurrent operator, ?: conditional operator and * :iteration operator) to compose a set of scenarios that describe a use case of a given system. In this paper, we suggest also to apply the scenario approach to B2B systems (Business to Business). We propose to develop B2B systems as a three activities process deriving formal specifications and code skeletons from UML scenarios. Activities of this proposed process are generally automatic and are supported by a set of developed algorithms and tools.
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Yin, Su, Guan Dongjie, Su Weici, and Gao Weijun. "Integrated assessment and scenarios simulation of urban water security system in the southwest of China with system dynamics analysis." Water Science and Technology 76, no. 9 (June 7, 2017): 2255–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2017.333.
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Abstract The demand for global freshwater is growing, while global freshwater available for human use is limited within a certain time and space. Its security has significant impacts on both the socio-economic system and ecological system. Recently, studies have focused on the urban water security system (UWSS) in terms of either water quantity or water quality. In this study, water resources, water environment, and water disaster issues in the UWSS were combined to establish an evaluation index system with system dynamics (SD) and geographic information systems (GIS). The GIS method performs qualitative analysis from the perspective of the spatial dimension; meanwhile, the SD method performs quantitative calculation about related water security problems from the perspective of the temporal dimension. We established a UWSS model for Guizhou province, China to analyze influencing factors, main driving factors, and system variation law, by using the SD method. We simulated the water security system from 2005 to 2025 under four scenarios (Guiyang scenario, Zunyi scenario, Bijie scenario and combined scenario). The results demonstrate that: (1) the severity of water security in cities is ranked as follows: three cities are secure in Guizhou province, four cities are in basic security and two cities are in a situation of insecurity from the spatial dimension of GIS through water security synthesis; and (2) the major driving factors of UWSS in Guizhou province include agricultural irrigation water demand, soil and water losses area, a ratio increase to the standard of water quality, and investment in environmental protection. A combined scenario is the best solution for UWSS by 2025 in Guizhou province under the four scenarios from the temporal dimension of SD. The results of this study provide a useful suggestion for the management of freshwater for the cities of Guizhou province in southwest China.
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Amland, Robert C., Mark Burghart, and J. Marc Overhage. "Sepsis surveillance: an examination of parameter sensitivity and alert reliability." JAMIA Open 2, no. 3 (June 11, 2019): 339–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jamiaopen/ooz014.
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Abstract Objective To examine performance of a sepsis surveillance system in a simulated environment where modifications to parameters and settings for identification of at-risk patients can be explored in-depth. Materials and Methods This was a multiple center observational cohort study. The study population comprised 14 917 adults hospitalized in 2016. An expert-driven rules algorithm was applied against 15.1 million data points to simulate a system with binary notification of sepsis events. Three system scenarios were examined: a scenario as derived from the second version of the Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (SEP-2), the same scenario but without systolic blood pressure (SBP) decrease criteria (near SEP-2), and a conservative scenario with limited parameters. Patients identified by scenarios as being at-risk for sepsis were assessed for suspected infection. Multivariate binary logistic regression models estimated mortality risk among patients with suspected infection. Results First, the SEP-2-based scenario had a hyperactive, unreliable parameter SBP decrease >40 mm Hg from baseline. Second, the near SEP-2 scenario demonstrated adequate reliability and sensitivity. Third, the conservative scenario had modestly higher reliability, but sensitivity degraded quickly. Parameters differed in predicting mortality risk and represented a substitution effect between scenarios. Discussion Configuration of parameters and alert criteria have implications for patient identification and predicted outcomes. Conclusion Performance of scenarios was associated with scenario design. A single hyperactive, unreliable parameter may negatively influence adoption of the system. A trade-off between modest improvements in alert reliability corresponded to a steep decline in condition sensitivity in scenarios explored.
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Hassanjabbar, Amin, Bahram Saghafian, and Saeed Jamali. "Multi-reservoir system management under alternative policies and environmental operating conditions." Hydrology Research 49, no. 6 (May 4, 2018): 1817–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2018.150.
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Abstract In this paper, alternative reservoir operation models under different environmental operating conditions were developed to analyze the impacts of applying different policies in a multi-reservoir system in order to balance human and environmental requirements. Three scenarios/models were developed under four sub-scenarios/operating conditions. The scenarios were: (1) an optimization model to maximize the hydropower production, (2) an optimization model to minimize the squared of the difference between the release and need, (3) a simulation model under the Hydropower Standard Operating Policy. The sub-scenarios were developed as follows: (i) no environmental flow, (ii) minimum environmental flow, (iii) environmental flow bounded by the minimum and maximum flow, and (iv) maximum environmental flow. Hydropower production and system performance criteria were calculated and compared in all cases. Moreover, the Range of Variability Approach was used to assess the hydrological alterations of each of the 12 cases. The results in a two reservoir cascade of Seimare-Karkheh, located within the Karkheh River Basin in Iran, showed that sub-scenario 3 performed best in all three scenarios. Further comparison indicated that scenario 1, under sub-scenario 3, was a good compromise solution, as it provided adequate hydropower production and performance criteria and the least hydrological alterations.
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Starodubets, Natalia V., Irina S. Belik, and Tamila T. Alikberova. "Sustainability Assessment of the Municipal Solid Waste Management in Russia Using the Decoupling Index." International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning 17, no. 1 (February 28, 2022): 157–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.170115.
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The annual growth of the municipal solid waste (MSW) generated and the exhaustion of existing landfills capacity have led to the processes of reforming the waste sector in Russia. But the question remains open: what is the optimal ratio between waste management practices for building a sustainable MSW management system? The purpose of this article is to evaluate the sustainability of the MSW management system in Russia according to various scenarios of its development using the decoupling index. Based on the strategic documents, authors constructed three scenarios for the MSW industry development in Russia until 2024: scenario 1 (basic), scenario 2 (MSW utilization via recycling), scenario 3 (MSW utilization via recycling and MSW incineration at WTE plants). After that, the decoupling index for all scenarios was calculated. In general, calculations of the decoupling index for 2022-2024 showed that for all scenarios (except for scenario 3 in 2022), the industry is moving into the zone of absolute sustainability. The greatest sustainability is achieved in scenario 2 – for this scenario the absolute value of the decoupling index is maximum in 2023 and 2024, thereby confirming the role of recycling in increasing the sustainability of the MSW management system. The results can be used by decision makers when reforming the MSW management system to choose the optimal ratio between the MSW management practices and the appropriate regulatory tools.
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Pramana, I. P. A. Edi, W. G. Ariastina, and I. W. Sukerayasa. "STUDI RUGI DAYA SISTEM KELISTRIKAN BALI AKIBAT PERUBAHAN KAPASITAS PEMBANGKITAN DI PESANGGARAN." Majalah Ilmiah Teknologi Elektro 14, no. 2 (December 29, 2015): 39. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/mite.2015.v14i02p08.
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In the years of 2014 until 2015 Pesangaran plant capacity undergo changes due to the expiration of employment contract lease diesel units and also the addition of new plant unit of 200 MW PLTMG. An increase or reduction in plant capacity of electrical system Bali will lead to significant changes to the load flow, power losses and energy losses in the circuit of Bali electrical Transmission system. Load flow analysis and power losses in Bali electricity system is simulated in five scenarios. Scenario 1 for the conditions of existing in 2014, scenario 2 is currently experiencing a reduction Pesanggaran plant capacity in December 2014, scenario 3 is currently experiencing Pesanggaran plant capacity additions in 2015 by using a peak load of 2014, scenario 4 is the scenario 3 with using predicted peak load in 2015, and scenario 5 is the scenario 4 with assuming the Celukan Bawang plant operates at 130 MW. Based on the results obtained by analysis, scenario 2 has the most power and energy loss about 46.34 MW and 300.39 GWh. For the loss of power and energy Bali electrical systems after Pesanggaran plants changes in 2015 are 38.57 MW and 250.05 GWh.
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Svatošová, Veronika, and Josef Smolík. "The Scenarios of Social Policy Development in the Czech Republic." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 63, no. 5 (2015): 1749–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201563051749.
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The main objective of this paper is to create scenarios of possible development of social policy in the Czech Republic and evaluate the probability of each scenario. Based on the literature review and scenario method, three scenarios are created (scenario of a positive development, scenario of a negative development, and explorative scenario), which are compared with the current state of Czech social policy and which evaluate the possible development of Czech social policy in the period up to 2050. For the implementation of scenarios, basic factors that influence the development of Czech social policy are identified. The complementary research methods are creative methods brainstorming and mind mapping, modelling, an intuitive method of estimating trends and decision-making method of scoring. The research shows that the Czech social policy system is threatened without accepting the strategic and conceptual social policy solutions. The probability of the scenario of negative development (critical scenario) of Czech social policy is more than ninety percent. This scenario is based on a deep economic crisis, the collapse of the entire system of social policy and great social unrest. The created scenarios are useful for actors of social policy which can reverse the negative development of Czech social policy.
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Hajduk, Stefan. "System und Bedeutung: Zum Kulturtheater in Deutschland." Scenario: A Journal of Performative Teaching, Learning, Research I, no. 2 (July 1, 2007): 56–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.33178/scenario.1.2.5.
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Das deutsche Theater zeichnet sich durch sein flächendeckendes System kommunaler Bühnen in öffentlicher Trägerschaft aus. Die weitgehend aus Steuergeldern geleistete Finanzierung wirft indes immer wieder Fragen nach der gesellschaftlichen Funktion und gesamtkulturellen Bedeutung auf. Diese lassen sich adäquat nur aus einer spezifischen Nationalgeschichte verstehen, in der ästhetische Bildungsideen politische Entwicklungsstrukturen überlagert haben. Die zumal im internationalen Vergleich hohe Qualität des deutschen Kulturtheaters einerseits, seine öffentliche Wahrnehmung andrerseits weisen allerdings einen Mangel an reflexiver Funktionalität auf. Dieses Defizit an kultureller Selbstreflexion scheint selbst ein Inszenierungseffekt der Mediengesellschaft zu sein, in der Theatralität und Realität zunehmend konvergieren.
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Li, Si Wen, Jing Hua Liu, Lei Hu, and Xiao Dong Wei. "Design and Research of Interactive Behaviors in Modern Healthcare Scenarios." Applied Mechanics and Materials 577 (July 2014): 893–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.577.893.
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Healthcare scenarios are human-machine systems which involve diverse linked products. Based on analysis of key elements of healthcare scenario under overall digitalization, the paper proposes a new definition of modern healthcare scenario from a system perspective and summarizes three dimensions of interactive relations in modern healthcare scenarios. According to data from field interview and case study, the paper thoroughly discusses forms and implementations of the interactive relations in healthcare scenarios from three aspects, i.e. information interaction, human-machine interaction and space interaction. We think the in-depth study of interactive relations in modern healthcare scenario can aid in the requirement elicitation process of medical product design and intra-hospital communication technology development.
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PACE, DALE K. "SCENARIO USE IN NAVAL SYSTEM DESIGN." Naval Engineers Journal 98, no. 1 (January 1986): 59–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-3584.1986.tb00615.x.
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Powell, John H. "System/scenario duality—a supporting equivalence." Journal of the Operational Research Society 65, no. 9 (September 2014): 1344–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/jors.2013.76.
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Estefen, Tiago P., Daniel S. Werneck, Diogo do Amaral, João Paulo C. Jorge, Leandro C. Trovoado, Jian Su, Edson Labanca, and Segen F. Estefen. "Scenario Evaluation for Subsea Production System." Marine Systems & Ocean Technology 4, no. 2 (December 2008): 73–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf03449234.
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Haghdoost, Aliakbar, Reza Dehnavieh, Mohammad Hossein Mehrolhssan, Masoud Abolhallaje, Ali Akbar Fazaeli, and Maryam Ramezanian. "Future Financing Scenarios for Iran’s Healthcare System." Archives of Iranian Medicine 25, no. 2 (February 1, 2022): 85–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.34172/aim.2022.14.
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Background: The financing function within a health system is considered inherently complex, so it is of utmost importance to design a suitable future for this system given uncertainties and complexities of the environment. With regard to the current and future complicated conditions, health system financing is also likely to succeed if it can anticipate the impacts of effective factors in the future and further plan appropriate interventions ahead of time. Thus, the purpose of this study was to develop scenarios for the health system financing in Iran. Methods: This mixed-design research of exploratory future studies type was conducted using the scenario method. In this respect, the key variables were evaluated using a questionnaire from two aspects of importance and uncertainty as well as formation of a future studies group (focus group). Finally, sensitivity analysis was carried out through cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis using the Scenario Wizard (Version 4.31) software. Results: A total of 25 factors were selected based on the type and the position of the variables (driving force, bi-dimensional, risk, secondary leverage or modifiable-to-secondary leverage) over the diameter of the MICMAC chart. Considering the degree of significance and uncertainty, eight variables including all four driving force variables (oil sales and economic blockade, leadership and advocacy, bureaucracy and corruption, and possibility of using information technology in providing services), as well as the variables of resource sustainability, natural disasters, regional security, and specialization culture were chosen. Then, five variables were finalized as the key changes that would create the scenario based on sensitivity analysis and final expert opinions. According to the defined conditions, 270 scenarios were developed, of which fourteen scenarios were identified as poorly adaptable and five cases as highly adaptable. Conclusion: The best scenario identified in this study based on the degree of adaptation included the use of massive technology and oil sales, mediocre economic conditions with high probability of occurrence, strong leadership and advocacy, high regional security, as well as bureaucracy and low corruption with medium probability of occurrence.
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Stretton, Milton L., and Janis A. Cannon-Bowers. "Requirements for Objective- and Performance-Based Creation and Modification of Complex Training Materials." Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting 41, no. 2 (October 1997): 1128–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/107118139704100289.
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Implementation of simulation and scenario based training for teams and individuals requires generation and delivery of highly complex instructional material. In this paper, preliminary results of a multi-year effort are presented with a focus on scenario development tools in support of advanced individual and team training. As a first step in this effort, a review of the state-of-the-art in simulation- and scenario-based training systems was conducted examining over 20 simulation-and scenario-based training systems. Consistently recurring limitations were evident across all systems in all aspects from preparation to debrief. These limitations, together with other research in automated data collection and diagnosis, have focused attention on the development of a “learner centered”, software-based training management system. The effort described herein supports the building of a system that allows relative novices to use historical performance data to create and modify scenarios based on specific objectives. This system will also create appropriate support materials for training personnel. Success in this endeavor will provide a model for those who have struggled to harness the considerable potential afforded by simulation- and scenario-based training.
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Abubakar Jumare, Ismail, Ramchandra Bhandari, and Abdellatif Zerga. "Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Grid-Integrated Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems in Northern Nigeria." Sustainability 11, no. 21 (October 23, 2019): 5889. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11215889.
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Life cycle assessment is a crucial tool in evaluating systems performances for sustainability and decision-making. This paper provided environmental impact of integrating renewable energy systems to the utility-grid based on a baseline optimized energy production data from “HOMER” for renewable systems modelling of a site in northern Nigeria. The ultimate goal was to ascertain the best hybrid option(s) in sustaining the environment. Different assumptions and scenarios were modelled and simulated using Ganzleitlichen Bilanz (GaBi). Uncertainty analysis was ensured to the impact data based on pedigree-matrix and Excel-program, as well as overall policy relevance. The results of the impact categories revealed first scenario (i.e., conventional path-based) with the highest impacts on global warming potential (GWP), acidification potential (AP), human toxicity potential (HTP), and abiotic depletion potential (ADPfossils). The lowest impacts arise in the renewable-based scenarios for all the considered categories except the Ozone-layer depletion potential Category where the highest contribution falls in the third scenario (i.e., photovoltaic (PV)/biomass-biogas system) although all values being infinitesimal. In quantitative terms, the reduction in the GWP from the highest being the first scenario to the lowest being the fourth scenario (i.e., wind/biomass-biogas system) was 96.5%. Hence, with the outstanding contributions of the hybrid renewable systems, adopting them especially the lowest impact scenarios with expansions is relevant for environmental sustainability.
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Takeda, Seiji, Yoshihisa Inoue, and Hideo Kimura. "Sensitivity Analysis for the Scenarios on Deterioration or Loss of Safety Functions Expected in Disposal System Due to Human Error on Application of Engineering Technology." MRS Proceedings 1518 (2013): 237–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1557/opl.2013.89.
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ABSTRACTThe sensitive analysis of radionuclide migration for the scenarios on deterioration or loss of safety functions expected in HLW disposal system due to the human error (initial defective scenarios) is performed in this study. Release rates for Cs-135 and Se-79 are estimated from Monte Carlo-based analysis. Maximum release rates of Se-79 and Cs-135 from natural barrier in initial defective scenarios for vitrified waste and overpack are approximately equivalent to that in normal scenario on all safety function working. Maximum release rate of Se-79 in initial defective scenario of buffer under the condition of colloidal migration is about 30 times as high as that in normal scenario. Maximum release rate of Cs-135 in initial defective scenario of plugs is about two orders of magnitude higher than that in normal scenario. These results especially indicate the need to understand the feasibility on two types of initial defective scenario, leading to the loss of restraint for colloidal migration in buffer and the loss of restraint with plugs from short-circuit migration.
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Mauina, G. M., E. A. Chertkova, V. S. Karpov, S. A. Nukusheva, and U. Zh Aytimova. "Information and analytical system of decision-making support for agricultural enterprises of Northern Kazakhstan." Bulletin of the National Engineering Academy of the Republic of Kazakhstan 83, no. 1 (March 15, 2022): 58–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.47533/2020.1606-146x.140.
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This article presents a description of the developed information and analytical decision support system for choosing the optimal production scenario for an agricultural enterprise IAS PPR Kazagro Choice. The problem of making managerial decisions on scenarios for the production of agricultural enterprises in Northern Kazakhstan is due to the presence of many criteria (parameters) of production and market conditions. The correctness of the consideration of the criteria predetermines the quality of management decision-making according to the preferred scenario for the functioning of an agricultural facility. The IAS PPR Kazagro Choice contains the concept of finding the best (optimal) production scenario among all possible alternative scenarios. The development of IAS PPR Kazagro Choice is based on the author’s mathematical model with a dominant hierarchy of the problem of choosing a production scenario and on the implementation of the hierarchy analysis method. IAS PPR Kazagro Choice makes it possible for a decision-maker to choose a preferred (optimal) scenario for the production of an agricultural enterprise in conditions of multifactorial influence and the availability of expert information. Distinctive characteristics of IAS PPR Kazagro Choice: focus on solving poorly structured problems; combination of traditional methods of access and processing of computer data with the capabilities of mathematical modeling. The specific applied value of the work lies in the possibility of using an adaptive implementation model for making managerial decisions on the choice of the preferred production scenario for a wide range of agricultural enterprises.
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Vahidi Monfared, Hossein, and Alireza Moini. "A system dynamics model to forecast the population aging in Iran." Kybernetes 48, no. 6 (June 3, 2019): 1216–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/k-04-2018-0166.
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Purpose The last reformation in Iran’s population policy was announced inside “General Population Policy” (GPP) in 2013. One of the main objectives of the GPP is controlling population aging. The aim was to designing and evaluating different scenarios for achieving this objective. Design/methodology/approach For this purpose, a system dynamics model was built from cohort age groups. The model simulated Iran’s population structure from 2000 to 2050. The system dynamics model was validated in 2000 till 2011 period (R2 = 94%). Data were extracted from the United Nations population division repository and represent a reducing trend in the fertility rate of Iran. This situation was named the “base” scenario. The simulation results for this scenario showed that Iran will face aging such that between 2000 and 2050 the median age will increase from 25 to 43 years. Based on these results, the base scenario could not achieve the GPP objective. So three alternative scenarios were designated: stabilization, increasing and hyper increasing. Findings The median age and the aging index are descending only in the hyper increasing scenario which means controlling aging. Therefore, the hyper increasing scenario is the only way to realize the GPP’s objective. To realize the hyper increasing scenario, it is essential to consider the total dependency ratio which shows the level of pressure on the workforce. Reducing this pressure increases the propensity to have more children (fertility index) and this is essential for maintaining high fertility rate. Originality/value The value of the research rests on a precise simulation model to forecast the population structure and aging. The research will serve as a guide for Iranian policymaker and support strong recommendations to bring the GPP along with supporting policies such as childbearing and child care assistance.
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PLISCOFF, PATRICIO, and TARYN FUENTES-CASTILLO. "Representativeness of terrestrial ecosystems in Chile's protected area system." Environmental Conservation 38, no. 3 (May 9, 2011): 303–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0376892911000208.
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SUMMARYBecause protected areas are a major means of conservation, the extent to which ecosystems are represented under different protection regimes needs to be ascertained. A gap analysis approach was used to assess the representativeness of Chile's terrestrial ecosystems in differing kinds of protected areas. Terrestrial ecosystems were described in terms of potential vegetation, employing three protection scenarios. Scenario 1 was based exclusively on the Chilean National System of Protected Wild Areas (SNASPE). Scenario 2 included all types of public protected areas, namely SNASPE, nature sanctuaries and Ministry of National Heritage lands. Scenario 3 included all items in Scenario 2, but also included private protected areas and biodiversity priority sites. There is insufficient protection of terrestrial ecosystems under the Scenario 2. In addition to the low level of ecosystem protection provided by state protected areas (only 42 of the 127 terrestrial ecosystems had >10% of their area protected), 23 terrestrial ecosystems were identified as having no protection at the national level. Gaps in protection were concentrated in the North (both coastal and inland desertic scrub), Central (thorny scrub, thorny forests, sclerophyllous forests and deciduous coastal forests) and Austral (steppe ecosystems) regions of Chile. These gaps include ecosystems that are of global conservation importance.