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1
Bashmakov, I. "Russian Energy Sector: Inertia Strategy or Efficiency Strategy?" Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 8 (August 20, 2007): 104–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2007-8-104-122.
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The paper presents a vision of Russian energy future before 2020. The scenario approach is required to identify potential energy supply and demand future trajectories for Russia facing uncertainties of both global energy system evolution and domestic demographic and economic development in 2007-2020. It allows for assessing energy demand by sectors under different investment, technological and energy pricing policies favoring the least cost balancing of energy supply options and energy efficiency improvements to sustain dynamic economic growth. The given approach provides grounds for evaluation of different energy policies effectiveness. Three scenarios - "Inertia Strategy", "Energy Centrism", and "Efficiency Strategy - Four I" - integral-innovative-intellectual-individual oriented energy systems - are considered in the paper. It shows that ignorance of the last scenario escalates either energy shortages in the country or Russian economy overloading with energy supply investments both preventing from sustaining rates of economic growth which have recently been demonstrated by Russia.
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Harada, H., S. Matsui, N. T. Dong, Y. Shimizu, and S. Fujii. "Incremental sanitation improvement strategy: comparison of options for Hanoi, Vietnam." Water Science and Technology 62, no. 10 (November 1, 2010): 2225–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2010.508.
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Urban sanitation issues should be tackled strategically, and may be addressed effectively when sewerage development is pursued in conjunction with complementary sanitation measures. Five sanitation improvement scenarios employing sewerage, night-soil collection-and-treatment (NSCT) system, and/or septic-tank improvement by annual desludging were analyzed from the perspective of COD loads, total nitrogen loads, and cost under the conditions found in Hanoi, Vietnam. Compared to the development of sewerage alone, the scenario of developing NSCT systems in a complementary manner with sewerage development was estimated to be the most effective for a rapid decrease of both COD and total nitrogen loads. However, it may be difficult in some cases to replace ordinary water-flush toilets by the micro-flush toilets that are used in NSCT systems. In this case, the scenario employing septic-tank improvement in conjunction with sewerage development may be effective for a rapid decrease of COD in locations where septic tanks are widely used under poor maintenance conditions and nitrogen pollution is not serious compared to COD. It was calculated that the two scenarios above would respectively require cost increases of 16 and 22% over the sewerage development scenario.
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Witt, Tobias, Katharina Stahlecker, and Jutta Geldermann. "Morphological analysis of energy scenarios." International Journal of Energy Sector Management 12, no. 4 (November 5, 2018): 525–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-09-2017-0003.
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PurposeEnergy scenarios have long been successfully used to inform decision-making in energy systems planning, with a wide range of different methodological approaches for developing and evaluating them. The purpose of this study is to analyze the existing approaches and classify them with a morphological box.Design/methodology/approachThis paper builds upon the methodological literature on developing and evaluating energy scenarios and presents a morphological box, which comprises parameters describing the scenario properties, (energy system) model properties, scientific practice and institutional settings of energy scenarios. The newly developed morphological box is applied to four selected energy scenarios of the German energy transition.FindingsThe morphological box is a suitable tool to classify current energy scenarios. The exemplary application also points toward four challenges in the current practice of energy scenario development and evaluation: increasing complexity of decision problems, transparency of the scenario development process, transparency of the decision support process and communication of uncertainty.Originality/valueThe morphological box of energy scenarios helps researchers soundly document and present their methodological approaches for energy scenario development and evaluation. It also facilitates the work of analysts who want to classify, interpret and compare energy scenarios from a methodological perspective. Finally, it supports the identification of gaps between current practice and the methodological literature on energy scenarios, leading to the development of new types of energy scenarios.
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Wang, Yu Ning, Hui Ming Zeng, Bing Qing Tang, and Bin Xiang Hu. "System Dynamics Modeling for China's EV Development Strategy." Advanced Materials Research 765-767 (September 2013): 278–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.765-767.278.
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Due to mandatory emission reduction and rising oil prices electric vehicles are about to be introduced in mass markets. This paper presents a system dynamics model of Chinas development strategy of electric vehicle industry. The focus of the paper is to study the influence of four major dynamic factors government policies, technology innovation, market demand and competitive ability. It gives an overall scenario of the development and highlights the major problems faced by Chinese electric vehicles industry, and how SD modeling can be used for the analysis of the industry developing policy. The model has been used to simulate the influence of these dynamic factors for 20 years, and a serious of policy tests and some useful policy suggestions were put forward. The result suggested that government support will still play a key role in a long-term.
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Wang, Yu Ning, Hui Ming Zeng, Bin Qing Tang, and Bin Xiang Hu. "System Dynamics Modeling for China's EV Development Strategy." Applied Mechanics and Materials 378 (August 2013): 483–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.378.483.
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Due to mandatory emission reduction and rising oil prices electric vehicles are about to be introduced in mass markets. This paper presents a system dynamics model of Chinas development strategy of electric vehicle industry. The focus of the paper is to study the influence of four major dynamic factors government policies, technology innovation, market demand and competitive ability. It gives an overall scenario of the development and highlights the major problems faced by Chinese electric vehicles industry, and how SD modeling can be used for the analysis of the industry developing policy. The model has been used to simulate the influence of these dynamic factors for 20 years, and a serious of policy tests and some useful policy suggestions were put forward. The result suggested that government support will still play a key role in a long-term.
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Jakimavičius, Marius, and Marija Burinskienė. "ASSESSMENT OF VILNIUS CITY DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS BASED ON TRANSPORT SYSTEM MODELLING AND MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS." JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT 15, no. 4 (December 31, 2009): 361–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/1392-3730.2009.15.361-368.
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The paper describes the assessment of 3 Vilnius city development scenarios according to transport system parameters multi‐criteria analysis and performing transport system modelling for 2015 and 2025 years. Vilnius city development scenarios such as concentrated development, extensive development and decentralized concentrated development have been evaluated from a transport viewpoint. Vilnius city development scenarios have been evaluated by using SAW (Simple Additive Weighting) multi‐criteria method. According to this method development scenarios ranking calculations have been performed using transport system indicators. Urban transport system analysis model was developed for Vilnius conditions, which estimates the fuel consumption, average travel distance and driven time by car in morning peak hours depending on urban areas development scenario and socio‐economic data. This model should be used when calculating new projects of the transport infrastructure (by‐passes, new bridges) and when evaluating the economic efficiency of traffic organization projects. Santrauka Straipsnyje analizuojami trys susisiekimo sistemos požiūriu Vilniaus miesto plėtros scenarijai. Miesto plėtros scenarijai, kaip sutelktoji plėtra, decentralizuotai sutelktoji plėtra ir ekstensyvioji plėtra, vertinami daugiakriteriu metodu SAW ir atliekant Vilniaus miesto plėtros scenarijų modeliavimą 2015 m. ir 2025 m. Daugiakriteriu metodu nustatoma plėtros scenarijų prioritetinė eilė, vertinant Vilniaus miesto susisiekimo sistemos rodiklius. Modeliuojant plėtros scenarijų, nustatomi tokie rytinio piko metu rodikliai: kuro naudojimas, suminis nuvažiuotas atstumas, suminis kelionės laikas. Modeliavimas remiasi esamais ir numatytais bendrojo Vilniaus plano miesto gatvių tinklo duomenimis, transportinių rajonų dabartiniais ir prognozuojamais socialiniais bei ekonominiais duomenimis. Sukurtas modelis gali būti sėkmingai naudojamas vertinant transporto infrastruktūros ir eismo organizavimo projektų įtaką miesto susisiekimo sistemai.
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Tkachova, Tetiana. "USING OF THE SCENARIO APPROACH FOR FORM A STRATEGY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MACHINE-BUILDING ENTERPRISES." Economics: time realities 2, no. 48 (January 28, 2020): 108–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.15276/etr.02.2020.14.
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Isolation and generalization of theoretical and methodological principles of enterprise strategy formation makes it possible to combine different conceptual approaches in the process of strategizing, as well as to choose the most appropriate principles for a particular situation. Eight stages of the scenario planning process are considered. Thus, each scenario can be implemented on the basis of multivariate solutions. The paper proposes a distributed dynamic model of problem situations in the enterprise without management influences, which is based on the synthesis of a simulation model of situation forecasting, built using the system of system dynamics J. Forrester, which has a hierarchical model structure, the implementation of which allows to obtain scenarios situations with a constant mode of management, to determine the image of the future situation and assess the situation at the enterprise.
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Pašičko, Robert, Zoran Stanić, and Nenad Debrecin. "Modelling Sustainable Development Scenarios of Croatian Power System." Journal of Electrical Engineering 61, no. 3 (May 1, 2010): 157–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10187-010-0022-7.
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Modelling Sustainable Development Scenarios of Croatian Power SystemThe main objective of power system sustainable development is to provide the security of electricity supply required to underpin economic growth and increase the quality of living while minimizing adverse environmental impacts. New challenges such as deregulation, liberalization of energy markets, increased competition on energy markets, growing demands on security of supply, price insecurities and demand to cut CO2 emissions, are calling for better understanding of electrical systems modelling. Existing models are not sufficient anymore and planners will need to think differently in order to face these challenges. Such a model, on the basis on performed simulations, should enable planner to distinguish between different options and to analyze sustainability of these options. PLEXOS is an electricity market simulation model, used for modeling electrical system in Croatia since 2005. Within this paper, generation expansion scenarios until 2020 developed for Croatian Energy Strategy and modeled in PLEXOS. Development of sustainable Croatian energy scenario was analyzed in the paper - impacts of CO2 emission price and wind generation. Energy Strategy sets goal for 1200 MW from wind power plants in 2020. In order to fully understand its impacts, intermittent nature of electricity generation from wind power plant was modeled. We conclude that electrical system modelling using everyday growing models has proved to be inevitable for sustainable electrical system planning in complex environment in which power plants operate today.
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Nizamutdinov, M. M., and V. V. Oreshnikov. "Approach to form the territorial system development strategy using simulation and scenario modeling tools." Russian Journal of Industrial Economics 12, no. 4 (January 3, 2020): 426–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.17073/2072-1633-2019-4-426-442.
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The studies were carried out in the problematic of improving the tools for implementing economic policy which ensure widespread use of strategic planning and regulation methods in real practice of managing the territorial systems development at various levels. The article highlights the most pressing problems of improving the efficiency of socio-economic development planning for territorial systems, including in the context of the modern digital economy development. The need for implementation analytical processing systems and the management information effective use to substantiate strategic decisions is indicated as the priority problem. The comparative assessment of the well-known methodologies, methods and ready-made software solutions in modeling the economy of territorial socio-economic system at the different levels is carried out. Their strengths and weaknesses are identified for solving the identified problems and priority tasks of territorial development. The basic principles and requirements are formulated for the territorial socio-economic system’s development predicting tools. The conceptual scheme for implementing the simulation model is proposed. In general terms, the scheme provides the adaptation of the SAM methodology to formalize economic agents’ expenses and incomes balance. At the same time it involves the use of econometric methods, fuzzy logic theory and soft computing algorithms. The statement of the simulation problem is considered, the structure and the block’s relations logic for the simulation model are described. It is proposed to formalize the basic parameters connections of the model in two groups: in the first group the system relations of the model parameters are identified and formalized by SAM methodology; in the second group the factor relations are identified and formalized using econometric methods. Some results of forecasting calculations are given as part of the substantiation of the strategy for socio-economic development of the of Ufa city for the period until 2030.
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Van Offenbeek, Marjolein A. G., and Paul L. Koopman. "Scenarios for system development: Matching context and strategy." Behaviour & Information Technology 15, no. 4 (January 1996): 250–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/014492996120175.
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van Vierssen Trip, F. W. (Ward), Nam C. Nguyen, and Ockie J. H. Bosch. "R&D Productivity in the Pharmaceutical Industry." International Journal of Strategic Decision Sciences 6, no. 1 (January 2015): 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijsds.2015010101.
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The pharmaceutical industry is in a R&D productivity crisis. Rapidly increasing development costs, decreasing profitability of new medical entities and missing breakthrough innovations are negatively affecting the future of the pharmaceutical industry. This complex problem requires a systems thinking approach to find effective solutions. In this study, a general pharmaceutical R&D productivity system has been modeled as a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). This model is based on a literature review and the mental model of experts in the pharmaceutical field. The model does not only support users to understand the system but is also able to simulate different future scenarios. A blockbuster drug scenario, a generic drug scenario, and a personalized drug scenario has been modeled with three different corresponding outcomes. These simulations enables decision makers to identify the leverage points of the pharmaceutical R&D productivity system. These leverage points could be the foundation of any further strategy development. The R&D productivity system archetype is potentially applicable for other R&D intensive industries.
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MUKANOV, Aidar, Askar SADUOV, Yerbolsyn AKBAYEV, Zhanar DULATBEKOVA, Anarkul OSPANOVA, Irina SELEZNEVA, Elvira MADIYAROVA, and Gulnara JEMPEISSOVA. "Composing of Scenarios Development in Strategic Planning." Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism 9, no. 3 (September 10, 2018): 491. http://dx.doi.org/10.14505//jemt.v9.3(27).09.
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Today, there are different points of view on the strategic planning of the production activity at enterprises and approaches to its implementation. In conditions of high uncertainty and rapid changes in the surrounding environment developing a strategy, relying only on probabilistic forecast is too risky. In an unstable environment, there are many possible options of future, which raises the need to design scenarios for key areas of development.
In addition, it should be noted that many Russian enterprises during strategic planning of production activities "thinking scenario" has not taken root. In part, it happened due to of complication of development process and identification of scenario’s reliability. Preparation of the scenarios required significant time, while in most cases the whole system of industrial relations in the domestic enterprises built with reliance on short-term goals.
In the above scientific paper, the authors reveal some theoretical features of the strategic planning of production activities, the approaches formed in Russia according to strategic planning, as well as the importance of developing the scenarios in the planning of activities, which directed to achieve the strategic goals of the organization. The author notes that the main meaning of development scenarios for strategic planning of industrial activity is to construct different and equally plausible options for the production development in the future. It is emphasized that the development of scenarios should be one of basic conditions for the strategic planning of industrial activity, which is capable of quickly and effectively prepare the production process and the whole enterprise for the new economic conditions.
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Tork, Hamed, Saman Javadi, Seyed Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany, Ronny Berndtsson, and Sami Ghordoyee Milan. "Groundwater Extraction Reduction within an Irrigation District by Enhancing the Surface Water Distribution." Water 14, no. 10 (May 17, 2022): 1610. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w14101610.
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Today, in developing countries, the low surface water distribution efficiency and the lack of supplying water needs of farmers by surface water resources are compensated by excessive aquifer water withdrawal. This mismanagement has caused a sharp drop in the groundwater level in many countries. On the other hand, climate change and drought have intensified the pressure on water resources. This study aims to evaluate novel strategies for developing surface water distribution systems for stress reduction of the Najafabad aquifer in Isfahan, central plateau of Iran. The performance of several strategies for agricultural water distribution and delivery, such as hydro-mechanical operating system, manual-based operating system, and centralized automatic operating system, was evaluated in this study. In the first step, two indices, i.e., water distribution adequacy and dependability, were obtained using a flow hydraulic simulation model. Then, the water distribution adequacy map and amount of reduction in the water withdrawal of existing wells were determined for each strategy. Finally, using the MODFLOW groundwater simulation model, the changes in groundwater levels due to the normal and drought scenarios (15 and 30%) were extracted during five years for each strategy. The findings for the normal scenario showed that the centralized automatic operating system strategy had the most significant impact on agricultural water management in the surface water distribution system with a 30% increase in agricultural water distribution adequacy index compared to the current situation. This strategy increased the groundwater level by 11.6 m and closed 35% of the groundwater wells. In this scenario, the hydro-mechanical operating system strategy had the weakest performance by increasing the aquifer level by only 1.31 m. In the 15% and 30% drought scenarios, the centralized automatic operating system strategy exerted the best performance among other strategies by increasing the aquifer water level by 10.18 and 9.4 m, respectively, compared to the current situation. Finally, the results showed that the spatial segmentation of the aquifer exerted better efficiency and better monitoring in the more susceptible regions.
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Mantel, S. K., D. A. Hughes, and A. S. Slaughter. "Water resources management in the context of future climate and development changes: a South African case study." Journal of Water and Climate Change 6, no. 4 (May 11, 2015): 772–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2015.098.
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Modelling uncertainty under future climate change and socio-economic development is essential for adaptive planning and sustainable management of water resources. This is the first study in South Africa incorporating uncertainty within climate and development scenario modelling for understanding the implications on water availability through comparison of the resulting uncertainty. A Water Evaluation and Planning model application was developed for the Amatole system (South Africa), which consists of three catchments with inter-basin transfers. Outputs for three sets of scenarios are presented, namely development-only, climate-change-only and climate-and-development scenarios. Near future (2046–2065) development uncertainty was estimated from three scenarios (lower, intermediate and upper) and climate change uncertainty from nine downscaled global climate models under the A2 emissions scenario. Consideration of development increased the uncertainty associated with climate-change-only scenarios, particularly at low flows. Water deficits are projected in the future for the Amatole system as the present water infrastructure cannot meet water demands under the near future intermediate and upper development scenarios. The deficits are likely to be exacerbated by inclusion of environmental flows (not included in the model). The recommended strategy is that of adaptive management, in combination with continual monitoring of climate and development changes, for reducing future uncertainty.
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Zicmane, Inga, Sergey Kovalenko, Svetlana Beryozkina, Kristina Berzina, and Aleksejs Sobolevskis. "Evaluation of Latvian Power System Static Stability According to a New Development Strategy until 2025." Sustainability 13, no. 12 (June 17, 2021): 6860. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13126860.
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The current stage of world energy development is characterized by the creation of powerful, territorially unified energy systems under free market conditions as well as renewable energy integration. Such transactions challenge networks’ configurations and their operating modes. Electric power system (EPS) static stability could be considered one of the primary targets in this regard. The aim of this study was to evaluate the undergoing and expected modernization of the Latvian EPS in terms of static stability in a regional scale-based case study. In order to define static stability, a method based on a bus admittance matrix was proposed. A simplified Latvian EPS model was developed and assessed for the following three modes: past (2017), current (2020), and planned (2025), taking into account the Baltic States’ planned development scenarios including large wind farm integration. The evaluation of computation results provided an opportunity to visually inspect changes in the EPS’ sensitive elements such as lines and nodes. As a result, positive changes were observed (decrease of several weak points) for the planned mode (2025) as compared to the past mode (2017) under the considered modernization scenario. The detailed analysis and results are presented in the article.
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Nie, Zifei, and Hooman Farzaneh. "Role of Model Predictive Control for Enhancing Eco-Driving of Electric Vehicles in Urban Transport System of Japan." Sustainability 13, no. 16 (August 16, 2021): 9173. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13169173.
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Electrification alters the energy demand and environmental impacts of vehicles, which brings about new challenges for sustainability in the transport sector. To further enhance the energy economy of electric vehicles (EVs) and offer an energy-efficient driving strategy for next-generation intelligent mobility in daily synthetic traffic situations with mixed driving scenarios, the model predictive control (MPC) algorithm is exploited to develop a predictive cruise control (PCC) system for eco-driving based on a detailed driving scenario switching logic (DSSL). The proposed PCC system is designed hierarchically into three typical driving scenarios, including car-following, signal anticipation, and free driving scenario, using one linear MPC and two nonlinear MPC controllers, respectively. The performances of the proposed tri-level MPC-based PCC system for EV eco-driving were investigated by a numerical simulation using the real road and traffic data of Japan under three typical driving scenarios and an integrated traffic situation. The results showed that the proposed PCC system can not only realize driving safety and comfortability, but also harvest considerable energy-saving rates during either car-following (16.70%), signal anticipation (12.50%), and free driving scenario (30.30%), or under the synthetic traffic situation (19.97%) in urban areas of Japan.
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Kurilo, Anna E., and Pavel V. Druzhinin. "Socio-economic development scenarios of the White Sea regions." Север и рынок: формирование экономического порядка, no. 3-3021 (September 30, 2021): 52–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.37614/2220-802x.3.2021.73.004.
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In the process of creating a national system of strategic planning and within the framework of normative economics, the scenario approach provides opportunities for constructing goals and directions of socio-economic territories development. Being a planning tool the scenario approach allows forming the directions of regional development. These processes take particular relevance for the regions of our country that are the parts of the Arctic zone, especially in increased interest and attention to these territories resources from other external agents. The main aim of this paper is to elaborate development scenarios for the regions, which are fully or partially included in the Arctic zone and the White Sea catchment area. Based on the dynamics analysis of the main macroeconomic indicators and development trends for 1990–2019, the dependence of indicators for forecasting socio-environmental and economic development of these regions, was built. We applied scenario approach to describe possible development scenarios of Arctic regions in the White Sea catchment area. The novelty of the work is the construction of matrix of development scenarios of the Arctic regions, united by belonging to the White Sea catchment area. The analysis results of macroeconomic indicators for three elements of sustainable development show that the regions have rather weak economic development, stagnation of social indicators and difficult environmental situation. We outlined the problems constraining the development of Arctic regions in the White Sea catchment area and the directions to their solutions. To reach the trajectory of sustainable development is possible under condition of coordination and implementation of the measures taken by the state and regional authorities. This scenario of development strategy according to the innovation trajectory will allow to consolidate activity of federal, regional and municipal authorities of these territories. The integrated development program of the Arctic regions in the White Sea catchment area can be a coordinating platform.
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Angelides, Marios C., and Harry W. Agius. "Eight Scenarios of National Information Superhighway Development." Journal of Information Technology 15, no. 1 (March 2000): 53–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/026839620001500106.
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Leading industrialized nations are now involved in the full implementation of national information superhighways. Their efforts will depend largely on the roles and levels of involvement of public institutions and how this is perceived and reacted to by the private sector. Through the evolution of eight scenarios of public institution involvement, this paper extrapolates the consequences that each brings about in the development of a national information superhighway. In particular, this paper examines the consequences of the development of an information superhighway for the UK within the context of each scenario and draws comparisons with developments in other countries. Contrary to popular belief, we show that there is no full solution for the shortcomings experienced in the development of the UK's information superhighway; rather, each scenario offers solutions for a subset of the shortcomings.
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G. Lazareva, Marina. "Entropy and information in scenario modeling of a firm: new approaches in business economics." Problems and Perspectives in Management 17, no. 1 (March 11, 2019): 202–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.17(1).2019.18.
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In the present world featuring rapidly changing conditions of external environment, it is crucial for companies to be adaptive and resistant to any types of fluctuations. When creating scenarios of business portfolio development or medium-/long-term planning of firm activities, it is important to evaluate an efficiency of such scenario implementation. Depending on the degree of openness of the system-firm, one can talk about the different degrees of its adaptability and ability to develop. The degree of freedom of the system is determined by its entropy. The number of degrees of freedom determines the system’s ability to develop, evolve (in general).Thus, it is important to investigate the influence the entropy and information to a firm – a system and create some appropriate instruments for estimation scenarios of development. The author studies the adaptive capabilities of a firm – a system to the external environment conditions and draws a conclusion that a reasonable combination of order and chaos is required for a firm’s evolutionary development, or one should search for optimal balance between an entropy, as a degree of uncertainty (chaos), and a system awareness, as an indicator of its arrangement. The author has proposed an index of strategic adaptability for evaluation of business portfolio development scenarios. The use of system’s information and entropy as evaluation criteria’s for the feasibility of scenarios is proposed. The offered approach and instruments for evaluation of the firm’s asset portfolio development scenarios do not require complex calculations and are convenient enough to be used by any firm, concerned about its adaptability to the external environment conditions in practice.
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Zakharchenko, Pavel, Ganna Kostenko, Tatyana Kungurtseva-Mashchenko, Svitlana Zhvanenko, and Viktor Mukhin. "Modeling of strategies for the development of the resort-recreation sphere of Ukraine." SHS Web of Conferences 107 (2021): 07001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202110707001.
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In modern world economy resort recreations – one of the most high-profitable industries of managing. Ukraine owns the powerful resort and recreational potential, effective development of which can bring a real economic benefit. For this purpose, it is necessary to form a system concept for the development of such industry, which are integral part of the economic transformations. The purpose of the article consists in development of approach to modeling of transformations strategy development of resort-recreation systems in which transformation acts as their internal and necessary part. As a result of research, the concept of transformation strategy development was grounded, as a certain period of cyclic dynamics, and the scenarios of origin of catastrophe, development and introduction of innovations is got. The offered approach assumes opportunity to consider development of economy of resort-recreation systems as process of transformation change of strategies. On this basis the model based on theory of catastrophes, which allows carrying out the scenario description of transformation strategies of resort-recreation systems is constructed.
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Baron, Silja, Jannis Hoek, Inka Kaufmann Alves, and Sabine Herz. "Comprehensive scenario management of sustainable spatial planning and urban water services." Water Science and Technology 73, no. 5 (November 12, 2015): 1041–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2015.578.
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Adaptations of existing central water supply and wastewater disposal systems to demographic, climatic and socioeconomic changes require a profound knowledge about changing influencing factors. The paper presents a scenario management approach for the identification of future developments of drivers influencing water infrastructures. This method is designed within a research project with the objective of developing an innovative software-based optimisation and decision support system for long-term transformations of existing infrastructures of water supply, wastewater and energy in rural areas. Drivers of water infrastructures comprise engineering and spatial factors and these are predicted by different methods and techniques. The calculated developments of the drivers are illustrated for a model municipality. The developed scenario-manager enables the generation of comprehensive scenarios by combining different drivers. The scenarios are integrated into the optimisation model as input parameters. Furthermore, the result of the optimisation process – an optimal transformation strategy for water infrastructures – can have impacts on the existing fee system. General adaptation possibilities of the present fee system are presented.
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Zakharchenko, Pavlo V., Yana V. Glazova, Svitlana Α. Zhvanenko, Ganna P. Kostenko, Stanislav F. Kucher, and Viktor S. Mukhin. "Management of Innovation Processes In the Health Economy System of Ukraine." WSEAS TRANSACTIONS ON ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT 17 (July 9, 2021): 721–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.37394/232015.2021.17.69.
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In today's health economics, resort and recreation is one of the most lucrative areas of the economy. Ukraine has a strong resort and recreational potential, the effective development of which can bring real economic benefits. This requires the formation of a systemic strategy for the development of such systems, an integral part of which are innovations. The purpose of the article is to analyze and develop methods for managing innovations in the health economy of Ukraine with its further development. The author's concept, which is based on the methods of economic dynamics, multicriteria optimization and optimal management, is used as a methodological approach. That is the first time the proposed concept has been used to analyze, forecast and formulate innovation policy and the development of innovation processes in the health economy. It allows to build predictive scenarios of innovation development with a high degree of accuracy compared to existing approaches, and is more adequate and universal in a pandemic. As a result of the research the concept of innovation development strategy as a certain period of cyclical dynamics was substantiated, and scenarios of influence, development and implementation of innovations were obtained. The proposed approach provides an opportunity to consider the development of the health economy and, in particular, resort and recreational systems as a process of transformational change of innovation strategies. On this basis, a model is built that allows for a scenario description of the transformation of innovative strategies of resort and recreational systems. The proposed model allows for choosing an innovation policy, i.e. at what point in time to begin the implementation of a new resort and recreational technology, which includes decisions on the feasibility of its implementation in general. The simulation results can be used to form a new modern strategy for the development of the health economy in Ukraine.
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Abdul Hamid, Umar Zakir, Hairi Zamzuri, Tsuyoshi Yamada, Mohd Azizi Abdul Rahman, Yuichi Saito, and Pongsathorn Raksincharoensak. "Modular design of artificial potential field and nonlinear model predictive control for a vehicle collision avoidance system with move blocking strategy." Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part D: Journal of Automobile Engineering 232, no. 10 (October 24, 2017): 1353–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0954407017729057.
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The collision avoidance (CA) system is a pivotal part of the autonomous vehicle. Ability to navigate the vehicle in various hazardous scenarios demands reliable actuator interventions. In a complex CA scenario, the increased nonlinearity requires a dependable control strategy. For example, during collisions with a sudden appearing obstacle (i.e. crossing pedestrian, vehicle), the abrupt increment of vehicle longitudinal and lateral forces summation during the CA maneuver demands a system with the ability to handle coupled nonlinear dynamics. Failure to address the aforementioned issues will result in collisions and near-miss incidents. Thus, to solve these issues, a nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC)-based path tracking strategy is proposed as the automated motion guidance for the host vehicle CA architecture. The system is integrated with the artificial potential field (APF) as the motion planning strategy. In a hazardous scenario, APF measures the collision risks and formulates the desired yaw rate and deceleration metrics for the path replanning. APF ensures an optimal replanned trajectory by including the vehicle dynamics into its optimization formulation. NMPC then acts as the coupled path and speed tracking controller to enable vehicle navigation. To accommodate vehicle comfort during the avoidance, NMPC is constrained. Due to its complexity as a nonlinear controller, NMPC can be time-consuming. Therefore, a move blocking strategy is assimilated within the architecture to decrease the system’s computational burden. The modular nature of the architecture allows each strategy to be tuned and developed independently without affecting each others’ performance. The system’s tracking performance is analyzed by computational simulations with several CA scenarios (crossing pedestrian, parked bus, and sudden appearing moving vehicle at an intersection). NMPC tracking performance is compared to the nominal MPC and linear controllers. The effect of move blocking strategies on NMPC performance are analyzed, and the results are compared in terms of mean squared error values. The inclusion of nonlinear tracking controllers in the architecture is shown to provide reliable CA actions in various hazardous scenarios. The work is important for the development of a reliable controller strategy for multi-scenario CA of the fully autonomous vehicle.
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Hassan, Sitti Asmah, Intan Nurfauzirah Shafiqah Hamzani, Abd Ramzi Sabli, and Nur Sabahiah Abdul Sukor. "Bus Rapid Transit System Introduction in Johor Bahru: A Simulation-Based Assessment." Sustainability 13, no. 8 (April 15, 2021): 4437. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13084437.
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Bus rapid transit (BRT) is one of the strategies to promote improvements in urban mobility. In this study, BRT scenarios, which integrate exclusive bus lanes and bus priority signal control in mixed traffic scenarios, were modelled using a VISSIM microsimulation. Three scenarios of BRT were modelled to represent 16:84, 38:62 and 54:46 modal splits between public transport and private vehicles. It was found that Scenario 4 (the 54:46 scenario) offers better benefits in terms of delay time saving and economic benefits. In general, it was found that the BRT system enhances the functioning of the transport system and provides people with faster and better mobility facilities, resulting in attractive social and economic benefits, especially on a higher modal split of public transport. It is regarded as one strategy to alleviate traffic congestion and reduce dependency on private vehicles. The finding of this study provides an insight on the effective concept of the BRT system, which may promote the dissemination of an urban mobility solution in the city. The results can help policymakers and local authorities in the management of a transport network in order to ensure reliable and sustainable transport.
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Fauzi, Muhammad, I. W. Sukerayasa, and W. G. Ariastina. "PENGARUH PEMINDAHAN SUTT 150 KV CELUKAN BAWANG – KAPAL TERHADAP ALIRAN DAYA SISTEM BALI." Majalah Ilmiah Teknologi Elektro 17, no. 1 (May 21, 2018): 86. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/mite.2018.v17i01.p12.
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To meet the energy needs in Bali Island which is increasing by 6 - 9% in the next 5 years, the government has been working on the development of Celukan Bawang power plant. The Celukan Bawang power plant project completed since 2013 has been fully operational in August 2015 as an outlet for the transmission of 150kV High Voltage Air Line (SUTT) transmission. Related to the issue of social issues with the keyword of Desa Celukan bawang on the development which is the home for them SUTT, the PT PLN (PERSERO) is asked to implement a strategy for securing the distribution so that the Bali system is safe when the re-route SUTT route. From the simulation result using PSSE Tools, Bali's electric power flow is simulated in 3 scenarios. Scenario 1 is free 1 Circuit Celukan Onion - Ships and Operation of the plant in accordance with the order, scenario 2 off 1 circuit Celukan Onion - Ship and acceleration Plant in South Line, and scenario 3 is done by loose both Celukan Onion - Ship and Southern remote operation. Based on the results of the analysis of the following scenarios filled scenario 1 has more economic value, reliable and quality compare other scenarios.
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Roberts, Owain, Jillian Catherine Henderson, Anna Garcia-Teruel, Donald R. Noble, Inès Tunga, Jonathan Hodges, Henry Jeffrey, and Tim Hurst. "Bringing Structure to the Wave Energy Innovation Process with the Development of a Techno-Economic Tool." Energies 14, no. 24 (December 7, 2021): 8201. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14248201.
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Current wave energy development initiatives assume that available designs have the potential for success through continuous learning and innovation-based cost reduction. However, this may not be the case, and potential winning technologies may have been overlooked. The scenario creation tool presented in this paper provides a structured method for the earliest stages of design in technology development. The core function of the scenario creation tool is to generate and rank scenarios of potential Wave Energy Converter (WEC) attributes and inform the user on the areas of the parameter space that are most likely to yield commercial success. This techno-economic tool uses a structured innovation approach to identify commercially attractive and technically achievable scenarios, with a scoring system based on their power performance and costs. This is done by leveraging performance and cost data from state-of-the-art wave energy converters and identifying theoretical limits to define thresholds. As a result, a list of scored solutions is obtained depending on resource level, wave energy converter hull shape, size, material, degree of freedom for power extraction, and efficiency. This scenario creation tool can be used to support private and public investors to inform strategy for future funding calls, and technology developers and researchers in identifying new avenues of innovation.
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Wulandari, S. "Scenario Development of Implementing Cleaner Production on Pepper Agroindustry." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 950, no. 1 (January 1, 2022): 012048. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/950/1/012048.
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Abstract Smallholder plantations dominate pepper development in Indonesia. In global trade, Indonesia has experienced pepper product detention due to the contamination of microorganisms. It is related to traditional agro-industrial activities that must be improved in quality assurance, hygiene, and food safety. The application of cleaner production is one strategy to overcome this condition. This study aims to analyze the application of a cleaner production approach in the pepper agroindustry. The analysis was performed using Interpretative Structural Modelling (ISM). Cleaner production in the pepper agroindustry is implemented by improving traditional processing systems and mechanical processing applications. The objectives are to increase productivity, process efficiency, and product quality. Both strategies can still be implemented based on conditions in the field. Strategies for improving traditional pepper processing include developing knowledge transfer, enhancing farmer skills, and processing infrastructure and technology provision. The application of machines’ processing requires availability and accessibility of technology and support from farmer organizations, financing institutions, and extension programs. The strategy of mechanical processing application begins with strengthening farmer institutions, improving access to finance and financial facilitating by the government, and building stakeholder engagement.
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Kozlovskyi, Serhii, Roman Grynyuk, Olga Baltremus, and Anna Ivashchenko. "The methods of state regulation of sustainable development of agrarian sector in Ukraine." Problems and Perspectives in Management 15, no. 2 (September 4, 2017): 332–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.15(2-2).2017.03.
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In this article the research of theoretical and methodological approaches to ensuring the sustainable development of the agrarian sector within the region based on the methods of state regulation was conducted. Regulatory and legal measures of the agrarian sectors sustainable development within the regions in crisis where conditions have been developed. The structural scheme of the system of state regulation for pricing of the products in the agrarian sector has been developed. The algorithm for the state regulation of prices for the agrarian market is proposed. It is proposed to construct of an effective management system of sustainability agrarian sector development of the region to combine all actions of management subjects of agrarian relations by the following elements: state regulation, market self-organization, management of agrarian sector. Currently the most optimal agrarian sectors of the region have an innovative development scenario in which innovative resources are used, shifting resource-technological equilibrium in the direction of production growth through more efficient use of natural, financial and other resources as an additional source of sustainable development of the regional agrarian systems. A targeted model of sustainable development of the Vinnitsa region agrarian sector has been developed on the basis of an innovative scenario that envisages achieving this by giving the agrarian sector of the region the main and basic guidelines of development by means of organizational and rational interaction of agroindustrial regional system with the external environment, ensuring its ability to self-development, efficiency of functioning, flexibility and adaptability.
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Aldhafeeri, Zaid M., and Hatem Alhazmi. "Sustainability Assessment of Municipal Solid Waste in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in the Framework of Circular Economy Transition." Sustainability 14, no. 9 (April 23, 2022): 5093. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14095093.
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Life cycle assessment (LCA) tools can be used for the environmental assessment of municipal solid waste management (MSWM) systems. The present study aims to evaluate the impact of an MSWM system in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, under three different scenarios based on the Strategy for 2045 of Riyadh. The current scenario (S0) considers that municipal solid waste (MSW) is landfilled, scenario one (S1) considers waste to energy (WtE) as the main treatment while dry recyclables and organic waste collection schemes are introduced, and scenario two (S2) considers dry recyclables and organic waste collection schemes at the maximum level while the residual portion is treated as WtE. The system boundaries include MSW treatment and disposal by recycling, incineration, composting, and landfilling methods. The scenarios were compared using SimaPro 9.1.1.1 software, and the ReCiPe 2016 Midpoint (H) V1.04/World (2010) H method was used to assess global warming, ozone formation (human health), fine particulate matter formation, terrestrial acidification, freshwater eutrophication, mineral resource scarcity, and fossil resource scarcity. S0 was found to be the scenario with the least impact if considering just the waste treatment. However, S1 and S2 allow material and energy recovery that avoids the impact of obtaining primary resources. S1 and S2 reduced greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions by 55% and 58%, respectively, compared to S0. According to the SV2030, 2% of the electricity generated by the Kingdom would have to come from WtE, but based on the calculations, the maximum electricity from waste would be obtained with S1 fully implemented and would contribute a maximum of 1.51% to Saudi Arabia’s electricity demand. This study contributes by providing useful insights that could help decision-makers to understand the potential environmental impacts by assessing each step considered by the Strategy for 2045 for Riyadh along with the consequences on material and energy supply by using the material and energy potential of MSW.
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Weissenberger-Eibl, Marion, André Almeida, and Fanny Seus. "A Systems Thinking Approach to Corporate Strategy Development." Systems 7, no. 1 (March 12, 2019): 16. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/systems7010016.
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In an increasingly complex business environment, companies need to reassess their strategic choices on a regular basis. However, companies are struggling to collect and efficiently interpret the relevant information on their business environment. Whereas market information is often analyzed, influences from the broader environment (e.g., society) are often neglected. This paper argues that companies often lack a systemic approach to their strategy development process, and that environmental influences are only considered selectively. We suggest that companies themselves need to be seen as systems that are embedded in a complex environment. To develop a successful strategic orientation, a systematic screening of the environment must be coupled with a thorough analysis of the firm’s internal circumstances (e.g., competencies). Therefore, the paper proposes a holistic framework for conceiving companies as systems. Furthermore, we discuss how the scenario technique could support a systematic analysis of the company’s environment. The paper also aims to provide practical guidelines for managers and contributes to integrating a systems thinking approach into strategy development.
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Singh, Rajesh K., Suresh K. Garg, and S. G. Deshmukh. "Strategy development by small scale industries in India." Industrial Management & Data Systems 110, no. 7 (August 24, 2010): 1073–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/02635571011069112.
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PurposeIn the present scenario of e‐globalization, small scale industries (SSIs) are considered engine for economic growth all over the world. After markets globalization, SSIs are facing many pressures and constraints to sustain their competitiveness. The purpose of this paper is to examine various issues in context of Indian SSIs such as nature of pressures and constraints, competitive priorities, competencies development, areas of investment, and their relationship with performance.Design/methodology/approachFor collecting data, a questionnaire‐based survey was conducted. In total, 75 valid responses were received. Statistical analysis of data acquired from survey is done by reliability test, t‐test, and correlation analysis.FindingsCost reduction, quality improvement, and delivery in time have emerged as major challenges for SSIs. Market research, welfare of employees, and research and development are found as major areas for investment. Use of information technology, training of employees, and research and development has significant relationship with performance.Research limitations/implicationsOrganizations should develop their strategies after analysing business environment and SSIs should utilize their resources judiciously. However, it is felt that this study can be further explored by considering other aspects of strategy development such as human resource, vendor development, organization culture, etc.Originality/valueFindings and issues of the paper will be highly useful for SSIs in framing their strategies, and academia for further research in the context of changing market scenario.
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Divithure, Homindra, and Conrad Tang. "Scenario-based strategy selection for a sustainable cadastral system development program – a case study of Sri Lanka." Survey Review 50, no. 361 (December 27, 2016): 301–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00396265.2016.1268776.
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Tang, Jiafu, Wu Zhiqiao, C. K. Kwong, and Xinggang Luo. "Integrated production strategy and reuse scenario: A CoFAQ model and case study of mail server system development." Omega 41, no. 3 (June 2013): 536–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2012.07.003.
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Ali, Sajjad, Imran Khan, Sadaqat Jan, and Ghulam Hafeez. "An Optimization Based Power Usage Scheduling Strategy Using Photovoltaic-Battery System for Demand-Side Management in Smart Grid." Energies 14, no. 8 (April 15, 2021): 2201. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14082201.
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Due to rapid population growth, technology, and economic development, electricity demand is rising, causing a gap between energy production and demand. With the emergence of the smart grid, residents can schedule their energy usage in response to the Demand Response (DR) program offered by a utility company to cope with the gap between demand and supply. This work first proposes a novel optimization-based energy management framework that adapts consumer power usage patterns using real-time pricing signals and generation from utility and photovoltaic-battery systems to minimize electricity cost, to reduce carbon emission, and to mitigate peak power consumption subjected to alleviating rebound peak generation. Secondly, a Hybrid Genetic Ant Colony Optimization (HGACO) algorithm is proposed to solve the complete scheduling model for three scenarios: without photovoltaic-battery systems, with photovoltaic systems, and with photovoltaic-battery systems. Thirdly, rebound peak generation is restricted by using Multiple Knapsack Problem (MKP) in the proposed algorithm. The presented model reduces the cost of using electricity, alleviates the peak load and peak-valley, mitigates carbon emission, and avoids rebound peaks without posing high discomfort to the consumers. To evaluate the applicability of the proposed framework comparatively with existing frameworks, simulations are conducted. The results show that the proposed HGACO algorithm reduced electricity cost, carbon emission, and peak load by 49.51%, 48.01%, and 25.72% in scenario I; by 55.85%, 54.22%, and 21.69% in scenario II, and by 59.06%, 57.42%, and 17.40% in scenario III, respectively, compared to without scheduling. Thus, the proposed HGACO algorithm-based energy management framework outperforms existing frameworks based on Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm, Genetic Algorithm (GA), Hybrid Genetic Particle swarm Optimization (HGPO) algorithm.
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RIZAL, Achmad, Izza M. APRILIANI, and Rega PERMANA. "SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT POLICY STRATEGY OF COASTAL TOURISM IN PANGANDARAN DISTRICT, INDONESIA." GeoJournal of Tourism and Geosites 37, no. 3 (September 30, 2021): 894–904. http://dx.doi.org/10.30892/gtg.37321-723.
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One of the crucial coastal tourism is a region of Pangandaran District coastal tourism. The area represented a coastal region that has various exploiting characteristics and interconnected one another. The primary purpose of this research is to analyze the sustainable management policy strategy of coastal tourism. To reach the especial target, hence there are some activities which require to be conducted as a particular target that is (1) identifying determinant in the future, (2) determining strategic target and importance of the main stakeholder ; and (3) defining and describe of evolution possibility of future. The prospective analysis was conducted to yield a sustainable regional development scenario of coastal tourism in Pangandaran District, with determining key factors that affect system performance. From various possibilities that could happen, is formulated three regional development scenario of Pangandaran District coastal tourism to come, that are : 1) Conservative - Pessimistic by conducting to repair of main key factor only, 2) Moderate - Optimistic by conducting repair about 50 % of the primary key attribute (factor), 3) Progressive - Optimistic by conducting repair to entire key attribute (factor). To increase sustainable status forwards (long-period), a scenario that must be conducted to increase the regional sustainable development status of the coastal of Pangandaran District is Progressive – Optimistic by conducting repair by totally to all sensitive attribute so that all dimension become sustainable for coastal region development.
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Zhou, Suyang, Zijian Hu, Zhi Zhong, Di He, and Meng Jiang. "An Integrated Energy System Operating Scenarios Generator Based on Generative Adversarial Network." Sustainability 11, no. 23 (November 27, 2019): 6699. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11236699.
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The convergence of energy security and environmental protection has given birth to the development of integrated energy systems (IES). However, the different physical characteristics and complex coupling of different energy sources have deeply troubled researchers. With the rapid development of AI and big data, some attempts to apply data-driven methods to IES have been made. Data-driven technologies aim to abandon complex IES modeling, instead mining the mapping relationships between different parameters based on massive volumes of operating data. However, integrated energy system construction is still in the initial stage of development and operational data are difficult to obtain, or the operational scenarios contained in the data are not enough to support data-driven technologies. In this paper, we first propose an IES operating scenario generator, based on a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN), to produce high quality IES operational data, including energy price, load, and generator output. We estimate the quality of the generated data, in both visual and quantitative aspects. Secondly, we propose a control strategy based on the Q-learning algorithm for a renewable energy and storage system with high uncertainty. The agent can accurately map between the control strategy and the operating states. Furthermore, we use the original data set and the expanded data set to train an agent; the latter works better, confirming that the generated data complements the original data set and enriches the running scenarios.
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Supino, Enrico, Federico Barnabè, Maria Cleofe Giorgino, and Cristiano Busco. "Strategic scenario analysis combining dynamic balanced scorecards and statistics." International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management 69, no. 9 (May 1, 2019): 1881–902. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijppm-09-2018-0326.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the way in which system dynamics (SD) can enhance some key success factors of the balanced scorecard (BSC) model and support decision-makers, specifically in analyzing and evaluating the results of hypothetical scenarios. Moreover, the paper aims to emphasize the role played by statistics not only in validating the SD-based BSC, but also in increasing managers’ confidence in the model reliability. Design/methodology/approach The paper presents a case study, developed according to an action research perspective, in which a three-step approach to the BSC implementation was followed. Specifically, the first step requires the development and implementation of a “traditional” BSC, which is refined and transformed into a simulation SD model in the second step. Last, the SD-based BSC is combined with statistics to develop policy making and scenario analysis. Findings The integration of BSC and SD modeling enables the development of a comprehensive approach to strategy formulation and implementation and, more importantly, provides a more reliable basis upon which to build and test sound cause-and-effect relationships, within a specific BSC. This paper exemplifies how an SD-based BSC can be used – and perceived reliable – to evaluate different scenarios and mutually exclusive policy effects in a multidimensional approach. In particular, this study illustrates how to forecast and depict trends for financial and non-financial indicators over the simulation period, with reference to three different scenarios. Originality/value This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the BSC by exploring whether a combination of SD and statistics may enhance the BSC system’s advantages and facilitate its implementation process and use for decision-making and scenario analysis.
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Lapygin, Yu N., and S. A. Boltunov. "Tools for Developing a Regional Education Development Strategy." Administrative Consulting, no. 5 (July 23, 2021): 110–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.22394/1726-1139-2021-5-110-121.
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The framework structure of the federal law on strategic planning leaves a wide field of activity for developers to use various tools in the process of building a development strategy for both the region and its sub-systems, which include the education system of the region. The methodological recommendations of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation regarding the development of a strategy specify only the content of the main directions of the strategy, but allow the use of various methods, models and mechanisms for developing the strategy itself. Therefore, the study of the issues of instrumental support of procedures for developing strategies for regions and its subsystems is of interest from a theoretical and practical point of view.In the study of theoretical and applied problems of instrumental support of the process of developing a strategy, algorithms are built in the form of a general scheme for developing a strategy and performing a comprehensive analysis prior to development. Algorithms for developing a strategy at the initial stage were formed based on the results of a comprehensive analysis, at the stage focused on the main goal (Mission), as well as at the final stage, the goals of which are focused on the ideal state in the future — Vision. Besides. An algorithm for determining the expected results has been built. on the basis of which a scenario for the development of regional subsystems is built.The scientific novelty of the developed procedures lies in the fact that a set of tools for determining strategically significant projects and programs of the final and intermediate stages of strategy implementation is proposed; tools for agreeing strategically significant decisions were formed throughout the cycle of strategic development of the region’s education system; shows the procedure for constructing a tree of goals for the intermediate stage of the strategy implementation; a procedure for the formation of a development strategy at the intermediate stage of strategy implementation has been developed. The proposed approach to building a strategy for the development of socio-economic systems in the region is implemented in the process of adjusting the development strategy of the Vladimir region in terms of vocational education in the region.
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Yu, Pao-Shan, Tao-Chang Yang, Chen-Min Kuo, and Shien-Tsung Chen. "Development of an integrated computational tool to assess climate change impacts on water supply–demand and flood inundation." Journal of Hydroinformatics 16, no. 3 (November 14, 2013): 710–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2013.018.
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This paper aims to propose a decision support system (DSS) for evaluating the climate change impacts on water supply–demand and inundation; and assessing the risks for water shortage and inundation under future scenarios. The proposed DSS framework is universal and flexible, which comprises five modules integrated by a geographic information system platform, including the modules of (1) scenario rainfall and temperature projection under climate change, (2) impact assessment of water supply–demand, (3) impact assessment of inundation, (4) assessment of vulnerability and risk, and (5) adaptation strategy. A case study in southern Taiwan was performed to demonstrate how the DSS provides information on the climate change impacts and risks under future scenarios. The information is beneficial to the authorities of water resources management for understanding the spatial risks for water shortage and inundation, and planning suitable adaptation strategies for the locations with larger risks.
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Liu, Jie, Lang Zhang, and Qingping Zhang. "The Development Simulation of Urban Green Space System Layout Based on the Land Use Scenario: A Case Study of Xuchang City, China." Sustainability 12, no. 1 (December 31, 2019): 326. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12010326.
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The development and evolution of an urban green space system is affected by both natural effects and human intervention. The simulation and prediction of an urban green space system can enhance the foresight of urban planning. In this study, several land use change scenarios of the main urban area of Xuchang City were simulated from 2014 to 2030 based on high-resolution land use data. The layout of each scenario was evaluated using landscape indexes. A Cellular Automata–based method (i.e., future land use simulation, FLUS) was applied to develop the urban green space system, which we combined with urban land use evolution. Using recent data, the FLUS model effectively dealt with the uncertainty and complexity of various land use types under natural and human effects and solved the dependence and error transmission of multiperiod data in the traditional land use simulation process. The root mean square error (RMSE) of probability of the suitability occurrence module and the Kappa coefficient of the overall model simulation accuracy verification index both met accuracy requirements. It was feasible to combine the evolution of the urban green space system with urban land development. Moreover, under the Baseline Scenario, the urban land use layout was relatively scattered, and the urban green space system showed a disordered development trend. The Master Plan Scenario had a compact urban land use layout, and the green space system was characterized by networking and systematization, but it did not consider the service capacity of the green space. The Planning Guidance Scenario introduced constraint conditions (i.e., a spatial development strategy, green space accessibility, and ecological sensitivity), which provided a more intensive and efficient urban space and improved the service function of the green space system layout. Managers and planners can evaluate the urban future land use development mode under different constraints. Moreover, they would be able to adjust the urban planning in the implementation process. This work has transformed the technical nature of the planning work from “static results” to a “dynamic process”.
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Tranchenko, Liudmyla, Nataliya Petrenko, Liliia Kustrich, Nataliya Parubok, and Oleksandr Tranchenko. "Strategic management optimization of the regional agricultural sector by means of modern forecast modeling instruments." Problems and Perspectives in Management 16, no. 4 (October 24, 2018): 64–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.16(4).2018.06.
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Under the conditions of Ukraine’s integration into the world economic space, the agricultural sector is one of the priority and strategically important sectors of the national economy. The research objective is to substantiate the theoretical, methodological and methodical principles of strategic management of economic development of the regional agricultural sector and to solve actual problems in order to optimize strategic management based on cognitive scenarios of supply and demand balancing in the agrarian market, probabilistic modeling, which allows the regions to identify the “growth points”, to optimize the sectoral structures of the economy, to improve the quality and efficiency of the developed and implemented scenarios and the strategies of the agroindustrial production development in the region.As a result of the research, a scenario-probabilistic model of economic development of the regional agrarian sector was proposed, which allows to identify the priority directions for the long-term perspective, to adjust the direction of development if necessary, to explore different scenarios of the development of events on the priorities change at the macro level in the conditions of uncertainty and risks.Thus, the practical value of the research enables to predict the strategic development of the agricultural sector of the region and its individual areas by using a systematic approach and compositions of methodological approaches to analysis and forecasting, considering it as a complex and structured system.
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Mazloumi, Mehdi, and Edwin van Hassel. "Improvement of Container Terminal Productivity with Knowledge about Future Transport Modes: A Theoretical Agent-Based Modelling Approach." Sustainability 13, no. 17 (August 30, 2021): 9702. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13179702.
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Despite all the achievements in improving container terminal performance in terms of equipment and container stacking systems (CSS), terminal operators are still facing several challenges. One of these challenges is the lack of information about further transportation modes of the container, which leads to extra movements of the container inside the stacking area. Hence, we aimed to examine factors that affect container handling processes and to evaluate a container terminal’s overall equipment effectiveness. This study used data from a container terminal at the Port of Antwerp, Belgium. An agent-based model was developed based on a block-stacking strategy to investigate two scenarios: (1) having information about further transportation modes and (2) a base scenario. The Overall Equipment Effectiveness Index (OEE) was also adopted to evaluate the container terminal’s effectiveness in both scenarios. Results showed that having information on further transportation mode significantly increased the container outflow, and the OEE index improved compared to the base scenario’s results. Therefore, we recommend an integrated data-sharing system where all the stakeholders can share their information with no fear of losing their market share.
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Richter, Sören, Nora Szarka, Alberto Bezama, and Daniela Thrän. "What Drives a Future German Bioeconomy? A Narrative and STEEPLE Analysis for Explorative Characterisation of Scenario Drivers." Sustainability 14, no. 5 (March 4, 2022): 3045. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14053045.
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A future bioeconomy pursues the transformation of the resource base from fossil to renewable materials in an effort to develop a holistic, sustainable production and provision system. While the significance of this change in the German context is not yet entirely explored, scenarios analysing possible pathways could support the understanding of these changes and their systemic implications. Bioeconomy in detail depends on respective framework conditions, such as the availability of biomass or technological research priorities. Thus, for scenario creation, transferable methods for flexible input settings are needed. Addressing this issue, the study identifies relevant bioeconomy scenario drivers. With the theoretical approach of narrative analysis, 92 statements of the German National Bioeconomy Strategy 2020 have been evaluated and 21 international studies in a STEEPLE framework were assessed. For a future German bioeconomy 19 important drivers could be determined and specific aspects of the resource base, production processes and products as well as overarching issues were exploratively characterised on a quantitative and qualitative basis. The developed method demonstrate an approach for a transparent scenario driver identification that is applicable to other strategy papers. The results illustrate a possible future German bioeconomy that is resource- and technology-driven by following a value-based objective, and which is supplied by biogenic residue and side product feedstocks. As such, the bioeconomy scenario drivers can be used as a starting point for future research like scenario development or modelling of a future German bioeconomy.
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Krutyakova, V. "Concept of production development strategy biological plant protection products." Mehanization and electrification of agricultural, no. 10(109) (2019): 210–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.37204/0131-2189-2019-10-22.
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The purpose. Increase of biologization level of agriculture in Ukraine on the basis of working out of the development strategy concept of regional networks of the enterprises on manufacture of plants biological protection frames. Methods. The researches were carried out on the basis of the analysis of the current state, necessary literary sources and existing normative-legal documents on the issues of biologization of agriculture in Ukraine. The results. The concept of formation and development of the strategy of regional networks of enterprises for the production of agriculture biologization means, which consists of four blocks: target block – reducing the impact of chemicals on crop production and the environment; forecast-analytical block – determining the structure of crops, the volume of production; block of environmental factors – determining where it is possible to replace chemicals with biological ones; conceptual block – assessment of the possibility of creating a system of biofactories and laboratories and the solution of the problem. In order to implement the strategy for the production of crop biologization agents, the following scenario of development of entomological and microbiological industry is proposed: organizational direction, economic direction, technical and technological direction, normative and legal direction. The paper also proposes the stages of implementation of the scenario of the industry development for the production of plant breeding biologization means: partial modernization of existing production facilities; large-scale investment development of the direction. Conclusions 1.The offered concept of strategy of development of entomological and microbiological industry for biological protection of plants is a necessary condition of development of organic agriculture, maintenance of manufacture of high-quality organic production and essential reduction of influence of chemical methods of struggle against wreckers on an ecological condition of environment. Such concept should be immediately introduced in Ukraine. 2.As a result of implementation of tasks on development of serial production of technological equipment for equipping of biological production, reconstruction, technical re-equipment and creation of new biological factories and biolaboratories the dynamics of increase in production of means of agriculture biologization is predicted. Keywords: biologization of agriculture, entomologist and microbiological industry, concept, development strategy, regulatory framework.
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Ghosh, Robin, Thomas Schilling, and Kai Wicke. "Theoretical framework of systems design for the air transportation system including an inherently quantitative philosophy of scenario development." Journal of Air Transport Management 58 (January 2017): 58–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.09.007.
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Lytvynov, O., and Y. Hladkova. "REGARDING SCENARIO APPROACH AND ITS PROBLEMS IN THE FIELD OF CRIMINOLOGICAL ANALYSIS." Archives of Criminology and Forensic Sciences 1 (June 16, 2020): 80–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.32353/acfs.1.2020.06.
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The current stage of criminological science development is characterized by increased attention of scholars and practitioners to the possibilities of scenario thinking. The main reason for applying scenario approach is the need to choose the method of action in a specific problem situation, to rationalize decisions while minimizing the risks. The conditions for the application of this method, including the field of combating crime, are its temporary and resource-based economy, simplicity of perception of scenario information, which does not require quantitative assessment of future events, the construction of mathematical models, etc. The specificity of the indicated approach consists in the simultaneous consideration of several development options with the opportunities and risks characteristic for each of them, with subjective and objective, internal and external factors, criteria and indicators. The analysis of the risk component plays the key role: most risks with timely and adequate attention lose their fatal nature and can serve to reveal new opportunities. The development of alternative future situations is an important stage of work, the content and quality of the scenarios depend on this. Based on several scenarios, one can develop an integrated strategy that works in all scenarios and ensures minimization of the risk regardless of the realization of future events.
The main barriers to the widespread adoption of the scenario approach in the practice of combating crime are the following factors: 1) the objectively existing predominance of pessimistic scenarios in their total mass; 2) the lag of science from the needs of law enforcement practice, which, in turn, is late in responding to crime transformations; 3) subjective rejection of individual scientific and methodological innovations by managers and law enforcement officials; 4) the complicacy of conducting complex interdisciplinary research; 5) outermost subjection to impacts caused by public authorities actions; 6) the presence of an irrational component in the crime system.
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Koniordos, Michael, Galyna Matvienko-Bilyaeva, and Svitlana Strapchuk. "Strategic scenario of an open source of sustainable development for the food system." Economic Annals-ХХI 165, no. 5-6 (October 2017): 56–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.21003/ea.v165-12.
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NUNES, Viviane G. A., and Júlia S. ABRÃO. "Design, Strategy, and Collaboration: a System an Alternative for Reusing Waste From the Bespoke Furniture Sector." INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INNOVATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 5, no. 1 (2019): 24–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.18775/ijied.1849-7551-7020.2015.51.2002.
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This work describes the proposal of a collaborative inter-organizational network involving different actors operating as a group. The aim was to reuse the waste generated by the custom-made furniture sector, which is very relevant in Brazil. The presented scenario is the city of Uberlandia/MG/Brazil, a medium-sized city, which produces about 30.000m3/year of furniture production waste. The proposed collaborative network involves a furniture micro-enterprise, a primary public school, and a federal University, with the coordination of the last one, linked by design concepts. The theoretical references are based on the building of inter-organizational collaborative networks, Strategic Design, and Design for Social Innovation and Sustainability. The research methodology was based on an action-research process, and the methods were divided into a literature review, case studies, data collection and the development of new and small products. The obtained results are related to the value perception of collaboration among actors and the importance of continuous social innovation practices but also of technological ones. This confirms the feasibility of absorption of new practices into the daily operations both in the microenterprise and the public school as well within the university, as a way of increasing the positive impacts coming from these initiatives and a chance of scaling up the project.
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Xu, Yuting, Songsong Chen, Shiming Tian, and Feixiang Gong. "Demand Management for Resilience Enhancement of Integrated Energy Distribution System against Natural Disasters." Sustainability 14, no. 1 (December 21, 2021): 5. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14010005.
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For energy sustainability, the integrated energy distribution system (IEDS) is an efficient and clean energy system, which is based on the coordinated operation of a power distribution network, a gas distribution network and a district heating system. In this paper, considering the damage of natural disasters to IEDS, a demand management strategy is proposed to improve resilience of IEDS and ensure stable operation, which is divided into three stages. In the first stage, the electricity, natural gas and thermal energy are co-optimized in the simulating fault state to develop the importance ranking of transmission lines and gas pipelines. In the second stage, the natural disasters are classified as surface natural disasters and geological natural disasters. According to the types of natural disasters, the demand management strategy includes semi-emergency demand management scheme and full-emergency demand management scheme in the electrical resilience mode and the integrated resilience mode, respectively. In the third stage, the non-sequential Monte-Carlo simulation and scenario reduction algorithm are applied to describe potential natural disaster scenarios. According to the importance ranking of transmission lines and gas pipelines, a demand management strategy is formulated. Finally, the proposed strategy is applied on an IEEE 33-bus power system and a 19-node natural gas system. Its effectiveness is verified by numerical case studies.
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BIELINSKAS, Vytautas, Marija BURINSKIENĖ, and Askoldas PODVIEZKO. "Choice of abandoned territories conversion scenario according to MCDA methods." Journal of Civil Engineering and Management 24, no. 1 (March 9, 2018): 79–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/jcem.2018.303.
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Urban brownfields are found in all parts of the world. They suffer from a negative image and are generally being viewed as problem areas. However, urban brownfields also offer potentials for new uses and for the ecological regeneration of cities. Strategic decision-making has a long term impact on the quality of life, ecological balance and urban structure. Therefore, the paper is aimed at providing a methodology for selecting the optimal scenario for urban brownfields regarding criteria for urban development and focuses on three possible scenarios representing sustainable urban development in the city. The results of the research are provided as a priority list for each scenario in the context of every neighbourhood of Vilnius city. The obtained results show the scenario optimal for each neighbourhood having the highest priority to implementing solutions in real life. Economic, social, physical (urbanistic) and environmental criteria are considered. Geographic information system (GIS) tools are employed for collecting spatial information, obtaining the initial set of criteria and deriving statistical data. Different MCDA methods, including TOPSIS, EDAS, COPRAS and SAW are used in the research. The correlation between the values of the sets pairs of cumulative criteria for the applied MCDA methods appeared to be satisfactory for the conducted re-search. The developed framework will support the decision-making process in brownfield land redevelopment aiding sustainable urban planning.