Academic literature on the topic 'Supported housing'

His paper looks at the implications of a judicial review last July of four cases concerned with the eligibility of service charges for Housing Benefit funding. It explains why the NHF recommends that funding for tenancy support should remain part of the housing system rather than be moved to social services.

The purpose of this study was to explore the perceptions and experiences of people living with serious mental illness (SMI) receiving housing assistance. A qualitative method was used to interview five adults with SMI living in a supported housing model. An Ecological Systems Theory (EST) was used as the theoretical orientation for the study. The major themes related to success of the supported housing that emerged were independence, involvement of owners, bonds with tenants, having access and means to resources, and positive engagement in well-being. No themes of unmet needs were presented. The study concluded people with SMI in need of housing will benefit by being in a supported housing model such as the one in the study. The two main limitations of the study are small sample size and limits in generalizing beyond the one location.

This project focused on how increasing social capital enhances the well-being of young homeless people, as reported in Chapter 8 of this project. The research re-examined the concept of homelessness from both the theoretical and practical views of vulnerable homeless people. In effect, the effect of homelessness on the well-being of young people was explored from the points of view of socio-economic participation and community engagement. The project also evaluates the concept of social capital from various perspectives, such as theoretical views, policy context and from the realm of supported housing and the professional sphere. This project discusses how increasing social capital in supported housing can improve the well-being of young homeless people from the perspectives of health, social and economic engagements. This is a different approach from that arguing that homelessness is commonly associated with a range of other social circumstances, beyond the simple need for shelter (Fitzpatrick, Kemp & Klinker, 2000; Third & Yanetta, 2000). Literature research and enquiries with homeless people and other participants confirmed that vulnerable homeless people in supported housing encounter many problems beyond a lack of suitable accommodation, and most of these problems are social disadvantages such as reduced access to private and public services, healthcare, education, and not being seen as suitable for employment, and general rejection or discrimination from other people. The Shelter report on homelessness (2007) highlighted that helping homeless people (with personal factors) to resolve their problems could become a complex situation and, as such, requires support from specialist agency services, supported housing, family support, friends, and day centre services. Therefore, this report argues from a theoretical and professional perspective, as well as within a policy context, that the concept of social capital is central to features of social life — networks, norms and trust — that enable participants to act together more effectively to pursue shared objectives (Putnam, 1995: 664–665). In order to provide evidence for how increasing social capital in supported housing can enhance the well-being of homeless young adults, adults and older people, as well as their pertinent contribution to community, we carried out the review of the wider issues around social capital from theoretical, policy and professional perspectives. This shows how this research project has drawn its theoretical and practical understanding from the review of academic literature. This project explores the contribution made by policymakers to the concept of social capital and, in particular, its effect on vulnerable homeless people. The literature review also examines the work produced by professionals on social capital by using the example of the research document on Dream Deferred (Lemos & Durkacz, 2002) to justify how social networks can help vulnerable people to rebuild their relationship with old friends and families. Woolcock (2001) suggests that a social capital framework also provides a base for bridging and linking ties to existing resources that could be used to do something about weaknesses and the nature of external resources that may complement these existing resources. Three main types of social capital were identified in this research: bonding social capital (e.g. among family members or ethnic groups); bridging social capital (e.g. across ethnic groups); and linking social capital (e.g. between different social classes). Berkman and Syme (1979) clarified the benefit of social networks to vulnerable people and the need to promote social networks through at least five primary pathways: (1) from provision of social support, (2) social influence, (3) social engagement, (4) person-to-person contact, and (5) access to resources and material goods. For this project the action research approach was considered an appropriate means of investigating how ‘increasing in social capital can support the integration of young people into the community and in the process, its contribution to community’. The framework and the structure of the research question were determined following the preliminary planning and project consultation with Supported Housing Ltd. The framework for the research questions was designed to obtain information from the participants, such as staff of Supported Housing Ltd, and to be used in conjunction with the interviews with their residents and the chief executives of Thames Reach Housing. The application of an action research approach assisted with the findings around the following: Exclusion of young homeless people from employment; Stigmatisation imposed on homeless people and their exclusion from the wider community as a result of historical crimes by previous young homeless people; and, Exclusion of young homeless people from local consultation on development and new initiatives. The effect of homelessness on young people was extensively covered in the research in the areas of health and economic status. The effect of homelessness on health is not confined to rough sleepers, but extends to other categories of homelessness. A solution was developed in this project to confirm that social capital can be maximised for young homeless people in supported housing through the implementation of: a structured support network model in the context of specialist health professionals working together to promote the physical and mental health of the young people according to their needs; support plan tools; an employment service and education service through joint working with local employers and local colleges to support the socio-economic engagement of the young people. This project identified how joint working between support agencies from specialist services from health, education, Local Authority, and supported housing could make a difference in the life of people. For example, Narayan and Pritchett argued that people should work together as cohesive groups in order to achieve their objectives through rules and obligations embedded in social capital In effect, they suggest that ‘the rules, norms, obligations, reciprocity and trust embedded in social relations, social structures and society’s institutional arrangements… enable members to achieve their individual and community objectives’ (Narayan & Pritchett, 1997). This project report was concluded by recommending an action plan on how an increase in social capital can be achieved for young homeless people in supported housing. The relevant support service provisions include health promotion, education and employment, financial capacity, and social networks that integrate young people into community-integrated services and promote their well-being through social inclusion — the aspects of health promotion, human capital (skills and training to engage in the labour market), social engagement in the community, developing new relationships in society, and getting involved with the local agenda through consultation. The physical manifestation of this project saw an increase in numbers of young homeless people at the Moonday Supported Housing project in employment, education and training and their involvement in the local consultation. The outcomes also include the design of outcome star toolkits that motivate young homeless people to identify their needs and the measurement of the progress they are making through person-centred action.

This study explores the implementation and impact of Supporting People, a policy of the New Labour and Coalition governments of 1997 to the present designed to provide housing related support to those considered vulnerable. The theoretical framework uses concepts from past studies of implementation, policy networks, governmentality, path dependency, other temporal concepts and a recent heuristic that provides an independent framework for analysing policy success. This conceptual framework was used in exploring the history of care and support services in the UK; assessing the successes and failures of the past. The study then looks at the drivers and policy goals for Supporting People and at some of the key reviews and studies of it thus far. The fieldwork uses a “mixed methods” approach utilising both quantitative and qualitative methods. An initial survey gathered views from a range of supported housing professionals, followed by a series of in-depth interviews with management practitioners from Supporting People funded organisations. Both stages utilised ideas from the conceptual framework in asking about implementation processes and successes and failures of the programme. This section also explores the use of evidence, dissemination and impact. In terms of the Supporting People policy, the study found a number of areas of strengths on which to build e.g. increased funding and improved strategic frameworks, but also many areas of weakness that require improvement. These include protection for funding, consistency across local authorities, fragmented structures of related policy networks and the top-down implementation style of the policy – there were lessons from No Second Night Out (NSNO) – Leicester in this regard. This was a piece of evaluative research carried out in tandem with the main study and integrated into it. The study found a consistent failure to provide adequate services for vulnerable people; services had failed to build up sufficient path dependent processes to protect them from funding and other resources being diverted to other priorities. The lack of a legislative and conceptual consensus around what it means to be “well housed” was key.

The concept of social accounting dates back to the mid 1970’s as one response within third sector organisations to traditional monetised accounting systems. As third sector organisations face increased funding challenges alternative reporting and measurement systems support information provision within a competitive funding market. A growing accountability movement within the sector supports this increased reporting. Yet, despite a substantial effort towards addressing accountability concerns and taking the fact that social accounting is an important enabler of third sector organisations; the concept of accountability and its role are not well specified or theorised. The focus of much literature is on the theoretical or political determination of a business with the concept of accountability as a mechanism to demonstrate moral obligation. Yet, there are few in-depth studies illustrating the issues in designing, implementing, and using social accounting in practice. The thesis is set within a third sector supported housing organisation and demonstrates the nature of reflective change and development within a social situation. Hence, the objective of this study was to define a practical model of accountability in respect to ‘social accounting’ whilst exploring the concept of ‘social impact measurement’ and its purpose within the case organisation. The study involves theoretical and practical understandings of developing a social impact measurement framework from the initial plan, design, implementation and usage of the framework. This research extends knowledge of accountability practice as cumulative process over time, an understanding of the potential challenges to such development in nonprofits, and draw attention to the complex, interrelated and cumulative relationships between accountability dimensions in practice. The research also illuminates how social impact measurement supports organisational dynamic change and development and the accountability obligation to stakeholders throughout social impact measurement implementation. The chosen methodological framework takes that of an insider action research approach to offer an explanation of the journey of understanding the theoretical alongside the practical experience. This is achieved through the critical reflection on the development of social impact measurement within the case organisation. The focus is to demonstrate the reflective ongoing process of change and maturation in a social situation in the ii workplace within a third sector supported housing organisation. This study highlights the importance of measuring social impact in facilitating and shaping a practical model of accountability in respond to the sustainability of nonprofits within a competitive funding market.

Thesis (M.A.)--Central Connecticut State University, 1998.
Thesis advisor: Marc B. Goldstein. " ... in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts [in Psychology]." Includes bibliographical references (leaves 39-41).

This study describes relocation experiences of older people moving to supported housing in Scotland focusing on the nature of support. Using mixed methods, Phase one involved a Scottish cross-sectional survey of all people aged 65 and over moving into Coburg (Scotland) Housing Association supported accommodation during the first six months of 2008. A total of 122 respondents were included in the survey (59% response rate). People moved locally at advanced ages with moderate disability levels to achieve more manageable housing and support, suggesting ‘assistance migration'. Expectations were high, with many seeing it as a new start in life and generally positive views of moving were reported. In Phase two, five in-depth multiple-perspective longitudinal case studies were conducted to explore the experience of relocation into supported housing. In each case an older person, primary carer and the housing manager - all women – were interviewed over six months following relocation. Analysis was undertaken using a thematic framework approach (Ritchie et al., 2003). Findings suggested older women acted with agency to adapt to their new lives; recreating ‘normality' through organising space and routines. It is argued that returning to normality formed the overarching objective of the older women as they sought to feel ‘in place'. Responsibilities for meeting assistance needs were often implicit, contested and shifting, leading to fragile, uncertain and transitory arrangements. Drawing on recent advances in developmental psychology it is argued ‘longings' of older people, and others, to achieve an optimal life can relate and motivate towards actions such as relocation. Yet, personal ‘longings' can be prioritised differently and may result in disputes over goal setting and ways needs are met. Further, utopian ideals must be reconciled with the reality of daily life. Policy and practitioners could adopt broader, dignity based objectives to assist older people to identify ways of aiding such reconciliation.

On the basis of characteristics of vibration in the rotor system with spring nonlinearity, a new method for vibration control has been developed. In the method, the spring characteristics of a bearing housing are controlled to be of softening nonlinearity when the rotor supported on it is accelerated and to be of hardening one when it is decelerated. So vibratory amplitudes of the rotor system always vary along the smallest solution curve in the whole operating process. A model of vibration of the rotor system supported on the controllable hearing housing is derived. Its dynamic behaviour is predicted and verified by experiments. Both theoretical and experimental results show that not only vibratory amplitudes and transmitted forces are suppressed significantly but also nonlinear vibration performance of the rotor supported on squeeze film dampers, such as “lock up” at rotor pin-pin critical speeds and asynchronous vibration, can be avoided.

In this paper, a herringbone grooved aerodynamic floating bush bearing is proposed and the instability of a rigid rotor supported by the proposed bearings is investigated, numerically and experimentally. The proposed floating bush bearing is flexibly supported by three- or four-layered foils with hemispherical bumps. Accordingly, it is expected that the rigid rotor supported by the proposed bearings will be able to rotate stably at higher speeds compared with conventional herringbone grooved bearings which are rigidly mounted on housing. It was found that the proposed floating bush bearing with 6 mm in diameter can stably support a rotor at more than 0.6 million rpm.

<p>The problems concerning the design, construction and use of buildings in a city environment or even other, less dense, environments, constitute a complex scenario in which various different disciplines are called to give their contribution: energy efficiency, reduction of the footprint, comfort, affordability and new living standards all play a key role in the design of new housing solutions. In the present paper, a new design idea is presented for the construction of buildings, capable of guaranteeing a high level of comfort for the users while safeguarding the surrounding territory. The proposed system, named GEODE, consists of a 120m diameter spherical steel or concrete structure with internal cores acting as shear-resistant elements. The shell contains five decks supported by mega-beams, on which 5-story high buildings can be erected, following design guidelines that have as a primary objective the preservation of high livability conditions. Among the defining characteristics of the system are its enhanced performance with respect to buildings of equal volume but different shape and the possibility of building the spherical shell using two different structural materials. These are distinctive features, which allow for the construction of small self-sufficient cities that synergically interact with their surrounding environment. In the present paper, an initial feasibility study is presented while the performance of different possible structural solutions, i.e. using R.C. or steel elements, are compared.</p>

Despite the current building sector slowdown in Italy, timber housing industry market is growing. But its growth has been limited mainly by the high costs of ad-hoc full-customized buildings and the lack of customer appreciation for mass-produced buildings. In order to satisfy the current demand for affordable customized housing, building industry should focus on solutions based on the combination of personalized and mass-produced parts. In this way, clients would have the chance to personalize crucial parts, and building industry can limit costs by the mass-production of the others. This combination between mass production and customization involves artefact flexibility and robustness with regard to the designer’s viewpoint. These requirements are set in the conceptual design phase, but in this stage architect’s decision making is not adequately supported. Since Axiomatic Design (AD) is able to support the analysis of designs with respect to the specified requirements, AD is applied to the review of prefabricated housing archetypes and current timber construction systems. This study shows the effectiveness of applying AD to prefabricated building design: crucial design decisions that affect the specified requirements are identified; inputs limiting their fulfilment in the timber building prefabrication are highlighted, and recommendations for developing adequate systems are provided.

External vibration testing was performed on a semi-hermetic, direct drive compressor on magnetic bearings intended for US Navy Shipboard use. The compressor was placed on a US Navy MIL-STD-167 shaker platform and driven at sinusoidal frequencies from 4 to 33 Hz at graduated displacements equal to a maximum of 1.5Gs. During the machine design phase, a linear forced response analysis of the coupled rotordynamic system model of the rotor, housing and magnetic bearings was performed to predict rotor/housing displacements and actuator loads. The results were used to guide bearing sizing and control algorithm design. The measured rotor motion and actuator currents correlated well with predictions at all tested frequencies, amplitudes and orientations. Analysis methodology, test results, and comparisons are reported here.

This study examines the response of a flexible rotor supported by load sharing between linear bearings and an auxiliary clearance bearing. The objective of the work is to develop a better understanding of the dynamical behavior of a magnetic bearing supported rotor system interacting with auxiliary bearings during a critical operating condition. Of particular interest is the effect of coupling between the bearing/housing and shaft vibration on the rotordynamical responses. A simulation model is developed and a number of studies are performed for various parametric configurations. An experimental investigation is also conducted to compare and verify the rotordynamic behavior predicted by the simulation studies. A strategy for reducing sychronous shaft vibration through appropriate design of coupled shaft/bearing/housing vibration modes is identified. The results are presented and discussed.

Qualification shock testing has been completed for a new chilled water plant developed for the US Navy. The variable speed compressor at the heart of the chiller system includes a direct drive, high-speed permanent magnet (PM) motor, PM bias active magnetic bearings, and a backup bearing system. For MIL-S-901D shock certification, the chiller was mounted on a Navy floating shock platform (barge) and subjected to a standard sequence of four different shock impacts generated from high explosive charges from varying angles and standoff distances. The chiller was fully operational during three blasts and in standby mode for the fourth blast. In the standby mode, the shaft is de levitated and stationary on the backup bearings and the chiller secured. The backup bearing system of the motor absorbed the response to the shock impacts and the magnetic bearings subsequently recovered levitation as designed. The shock testing was simulated using a transient, nonlinear rotordynamic analysis including the magnetic bearing control and saturation features, backup bearings with resilient mounts and associated clearances, and structural dynamic models of the rotor and housing. Compressor/motor housing acceleration measured during the testing was used as the driving input into the simulation. Some rotor position data recorded during shock testing, the simulation approach and comparisons are reported and discussed.

This paper is to present an experimental study that measures ground-based response of a spinning, cyclic, symmetric rotor-bearing-housing system. In particular, the study focuses on rotor-housing coupled modes that are significantly dominated by housing deformation. In the experiments, a ball-bearing spindle motor, carrying a disk with four evenly spaced slots (i.e., the rotor), is mounted onto a stationary housing. The housing is a square plate supported with steel spacers at four corners and fixed to the ground. Two different ways are used to excite the rotor-housing system to measure frequency response functions (FRFs). One is to use an automatic hammer tapping at the disk, and the other is to use a piezoelectric actuator attached to the housing. Vibration of the rotor and housing is measured via a laser Doppler vibrometer and a capacitance probe. The experiments consist of two parts. The first part is to obtain FRFs when the rotor is not spinning. The measured FRFs reveal two rotor-housing coupled modes dominated by the housing. Their mode shapes are characterized by one nodal line in housing and one nodal diameter in the rotor. The second part is to obtain waterfall plots when the rotor is spinning at various speeds. The waterfall plots show that the housing dominant modes split into primary branches and secondary branches as the spin speed varies. The primary branches almost do not change with respect to the spin speed. In contrast, the secondary branches evolve into forward and backward branches. Moreover, their resonance frequencies increase and decrease at four times of the spin speed. The measured results agree well with the predictions found in the authors’ previous theoretical study [1].

A method for field identification of stiffness and damping characteristics of fluid film bearings FFB is derived. The method relies on measuring both the shaft and the housing’s vibration response. Two independent unbalance runs are performed and the synchronous response is recorded. Using the housing vibration data, the amount of unbalance acting on the bearing, as well as the flexible shafts’ “modal mass” can be experimentally determined. Thus, with this method, field engineers can identify the bearings impedance in flexible rotor-bearing systems. A test rig comprising a flexible shaft supported on two cylindrical journal bearings is used to verify the proposed method. The amount of uncertainty in the derived coefficients is calculated.

This paper presents a Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) test setup used for studying the dynamics of an elastomer supported machine bed. The setup uses real elastomer dampers and modeled machine dynamics (process model) connected together via real-time interface. The HIL approach was chosen since the elastomers are a critical part of the system, however, determining their properties for engineering needs can be a challenging task. Accurate elastomer models include many parameters that can only be determined by experimentally, and even then their implementation for real-life applications is not always practical. Using real elastomers supports in the simulation removes uncertainties associated with classic elastomer models, while simulated process makes it possible to test different scenarios fast and with good repeatability. The process model includes a description of the machine body, a rotating unbalanced drive mechanism creating cyclic loading and external excitation forces acting on the machine. The method enables testing of machine bed supports in a realistic operating environment. A test rig was built for housing the elastomers incorporating a hydraulic actuator for producing the process movement. The hydraulic circuit was designed for good dynamic performance with predictive control to minimize delays in the real-time interface. It was found that the HIL-setup can provide fast and accurate information about the plant model behavior in different operating scenarios using the elastomer supports.

This working paper examines the push and pull factors that shape return migration in the People’s Republic of China. This study draws on primary qualitative research in Dianjiang County of Chongqing Municipality. The push and pull factors are associated with the availability of assets both in migration destinations and back at home that the migrants can draw upon to support their livelihoods. These assets comprise financial, human, and social capital; family relations; access to social security, housing and infrastructure; and productive assets such as land.

This study assesses the empirical relevance of the Harris-Todaro model at high levels of urbanization a feature that characterizes an increasing number of developing countries, which were largely rural when the model was created 50 years ago. Using data from Brazil, the paper compares observed and model-based predictions of the equilibrium urban employment rate of 449 cities and the rural regions that are the historic sources of their migrant populations. Little support is found in the data for the most basic version of the model. However, extensions that incorporate labor informality and housing markets have much better empirical traction. Harris-Todaro equilibrium relationships are relatively stronger among workers with primary but no high school education, and those relationships are more frequently found under certain conditions: when cities are relatively larger; and when associated rural areas are closer to the magnet city and populated to a greater degree by young adults, who are most likely to migrate.

Key Message Ontario long-term care (LTC) home residents have experienced disproportionately high morbidity and mortality, both from COVID-19 and from the conditions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. There are several measures that could be effective in preventing COVID-19 outbreaks, hospitalizations, and deaths in Ontario’s LTC homes, if implemented. First, temporary staffing could be minimized by improving staff working conditions. Second, homes could be further decrowded by a continued disallowance of three- and four-resident rooms and additional temporary housing for the most crowded homes. Third, the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in staff could be minimized by approaches that reduce the risk of transmission in communities with a high burden of COVID-19. Summary Background The Province of Ontario has 626 licensed LTC homes and 77,257 long-stay beds; 58% of homes are privately owned, 24% are non-profit/charitable, 16% are municipal. LTC homes were strongly affected during Ontario’s first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Questions What do we know about the first and second waves of COVID-19 in Ontario LTC homes? Which risk factors are associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in Ontario LTC homes and the extent and death rates associated with outbreaks? What has been the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the general health and wellbeing of LTC residents? How has the existing Ontario evidence on COVID-19 in LTC settings been used to support public health interventions and policy changes in these settings? What are the further measures that could be effective in preventing COVID-19 outbreaks, hospitalizations, and deaths in Ontario’s LTC homes? Findings As of January 14, 2021, a total of 3,211 Ontario LTC home residents have died of COVID-19, totaling 60.7% of all 5,289 COVID-19 deaths in Ontario to date. There have now been more cumulative LTC home outbreaks during the second wave as compared with the first wave. The infection and death rates among LTC residents have been lower during the second wave, as compared with the first wave, and a greater number of LTC outbreaks have involved only staff infections. The growth rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections among LTC residents was slower during the first two months of the second wave in September and October 2020, as compared with the first wave. However, the growth rate after the two-month mark is comparatively faster during the second wave. The majority of second wave infections and deaths in LTC homes have occurred between December 1, 2020, and January 14, 2021 (most recent date of data extraction prior to publication). This highlights the recent intensification of the COVID-19 pandemic in LTC homes that has mirrored the recent increase in community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 across Ontario. Evidence from Ontario demonstrates that the risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks and subsequent deaths in LTC are distinct from the risk factors for outbreaks and deaths in the community (Figure 1). The most important risk factors for whether a LTC home will experience an outbreak is the daily incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the communities surrounding the home and the occurrence of staff infections. The most important risk factors for the magnitude of an outbreak and the number of resulting resident deaths are older design, chain ownership, and crowding. Figure 1. Anatomy of Outbreaks and Spread of COVID-19 in LTC Homes and Among Residents Figure from Peter Hamilton, personal communication. Many Ontario LTC home residents have experienced severe and potentially irreversible physical, cognitive, psychological, and functional declines as a result of precautionary public health interventions imposed on homes, such as limiting access to general visitors and essential caregivers, resident absences, and group activities. There has also been an increase in the prescribing of psychoactive drugs to Ontario LTC residents. The accumulating evidence on COVID-19 in Ontario’s LTC homes has been leveraged in several ways to support public health interventions and policy during the pandemic. Ontario evidence showed that SARS-CoV-2 infections among LTC staff was associated with subsequent COVID-19 deaths among LTC residents, which motivated a public order to restrict LTC staff from working in more than one LTC home in the first wave. Emerging Ontario evidence on risk factors for LTC home outbreaks and deaths has been incorporated into provincial pandemic surveillance tools. Public health directives now attempt to limit crowding in LTC homes by restricting occupancy to two residents per room. The LTC visitor policy was also revised to designate a maximum of two essential caregivers who can visit residents without time limits, including when a home is experiencing an outbreak. Several further measures could be effective in preventing COVID-19 outbreaks, hospitalizations, and deaths in Ontario’s LTC homes. First, temporary staffing could be minimized by improving staff working conditions. Second, the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in staff could be minimized by measures that reduce the risk of transmission in communities with a high burden of COVID-19. Third, LTC homes could be further decrowded by a continued disallowance of three- and four-resident rooms and additional temporary housing for the most crowded homes. Other important issues include improved prevention and detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection in LTC staff, enhanced infection prevention and control (IPAC) capacity within the LTC homes, a more balanced and nuanced approach to public health measures and IPAC strategies in LTC homes, strategies to promote vaccine acceptance amongst residents and staff, and further improving data collection on LTC homes, residents, staff, visitors and essential caregivers for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic. Interpretation Comparisons of the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in the LTC setting reveal improvement in some but not all epidemiological indicators. Despite this, the second wave is now intensifying within LTC homes and without action we will likely experience a substantial additional loss of life before the widespread administration and time-dependent maximal effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. The predictors of outbreaks, the spread of infection, and deaths in Ontario’s LTC homes are well documented and have remained unchanged between the first and the second wave. Some of the evidence on COVID-19 in Ontario’s LTC homes has been effectively leveraged to support public health interventions and policies. Several further measures, if implemented, have the potential to prevent additional LTC home COVID-19 outbreaks and deaths.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

South Africa is a country with significant socio-economic development challenges, with the majority of South Africans having limited or non-existent access to basic infrastructure, services, housing and socio-economic opportunities etc. The urban housing backlog currently exceeds 2.4 million houses, with many families living in informal settlements. The Breaking New Grounds Policy, 2014 for the creation of sustainable human settlements, acknowledges the challenges facing human settlements, such as, decreasing human settlements grants allocation, increasing housing backlog, mushrooming of informal settlements and urbanisation. The White Paper on Science, Technology and Innovation (STI), 2019 notes that South Africa has not yet fully benefited from the potential of STI in addressing the socio-economic challenges and seeks to support the circular economy principles which entail a systematic change of moving to a zero or low waste resource-efficient society. Further to this, the Science and Technology Roadmap’s intention is to unlock the potential of South Africa’s human settlements for a decent standard of living through the smart uptake of science, technology and innovation. One such novel technology is the Three-Dimensional (3D) printing technology, which has produced numerous incredible structures around the world. 3D printing is a computer-controlled industrial manufacturing process which encompasses additive means of production to create 3D shapes. The effects of such a technology have a potential to change the world we live in and could subsequently pave the roadmap to improve on housing delivery and reduce the negative effects of conventional construction methods on the environment. To this end, the Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf), in partnership with the Department of Science and Innovation (DSI) and the University of Johannesburg (UJ) hosted the second virtual IID seminar titled: Exploring the Prospects of Using 3D Printing Technology in the South African Human Settlements, on 01 March 2021 to explore the potential use of 3D printing technology in human settlements. The webinar presented preliminary findings from a study conducted by UJ, addressing the following topics: 1. The viability of 3D printing technology 2. Cost comparison of 3D printed house to conventional construction 3. Preliminary perceptions on 3D printing of houses Speakers included: Dr Jennifer Mirembe (NDoHS), Dr Jeffrey Mahachi, Mr Refilwe Lediga, Mr Khululekani Ntakana and Dr Luxien Ariyan, all from UJ. There was a unanimous consensus that collaborative efforts from all stakeholders are key to take advantage of this niche technology. @ASSAf_Official; @dsigovza; @go2uj; @The_DHS; #SA 3D_Printing; #3D Print_Housing; #IID