Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Substitution (Economics) Econometric models'
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Adam, Christopher S. "The demand for money, asset substitution and the inflation tax in a liberalizing economy : an econometric analysis for Kenya." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1992. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:037dcc1e-edff-4096-89cb-6d24a70742d8.
Full textMcGarry, Joanne S. "Seasonality in continuous time econometric models." Thesis, University of Essex, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.313064.
Full textMavroeidis, Sophocles. "Econometric issues in forward-looking monetary models." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.273303.
Full textKapetanios, George. "Essays on the econometric analysis of threshold models." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.286704.
Full textHall, Stephen George Frederick. "Solving and evaluating large non-linear econometric models." Thesis, Queen Mary, University of London, 1986. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.261290.
Full textLu, Maozu. "The encompassing principle and evaluation of econometric models." Thesis, University of Southampton, 1991. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.316084.
Full textSherrell, Neill. "The estimation and specification of spatial econometric models." Thesis, University of Bristol, 1990. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.281861.
Full textWongwachara, Warapong. "Essays on econometric errors in quantitative financial economics." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2011. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.609240.
Full textNorets, Andriy. "Bayesian inference in dynamic discrete choice models." Diss., University of Iowa, 2007. http://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/148.
Full textWang, Wei. "Three Essays on Spatial Econometric Models with Missing Data." The Ohio State University, 2010. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1275414562.
Full textMcCrorie, James Roderick. "Some topics in the estimation of continuous time econometric models." Thesis, University of Essex, 1996. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.388615.
Full textArellano, Gomez Manuel. "Estimation and testing of dynamic econometric models from panel data." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 1985. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.261293.
Full text黃少軍 and Shaojun Huang. "Service sector development, structural change, and economic growth: international experriences and implicationsfor China." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2001. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31241815.
Full textSteinbach, Max Rudibert. "Essays on dynamic macroeconomics." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/86196.
Full textENGLISH ABSTRACT: In the first essay of this thesis, a medium scale DSGE model is developed and estimated for the South African economy. When used for forecasting, the model is found to outperform private sector economists when forecasting CPI inflation, GDP growth and the policy rate over certain horizons. In the second essay, the benchmark DSGE model is extended to include the yield on South African 10-year government bonds. The model is then used to decompose the 10-year yield spread into (1) the structural shocks that contributed to its evolution during the inflation targeting regime of the South African Reserve Bank, as well as (2) an expected yield and a term premium. In addition, it is found that changes in the South African term premium may predict future real economic activity. Finally, the need for DSGE models to take account of financial frictions became apparent during the recent global financial crisis. As a result, the final essay incorporates a stylised banking sector into the benchmark DSGE model described above. The optimal response of the South African Reserve Bank to financial shocks is then analysed within the context of this structural model.
Quigley, Daniel Hugh. "Essays in the economics of information disclosure." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2014. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.648766.
Full textBorah, Bijan Jyoti. "Econometric models of provider choice and health care use in India." [Bloomington, Ind.] : Indiana University, 2006. http://gateway.proquest.com/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation&res_dat=xri:pqdiss&rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:3240038.
Full text"Title from dissertation home page (viewed July 16, 2007)." Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 67-10, Section: A, page: 3907. Adviser: Pravin Trivedi.
Indralingam, Maheswaran. "Sequential estimation, parameter variation and predictive power of econometric market response models." Thesis, Lancaster University, 1989. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.255352.
Full textLi, Ke 1969. "A general equilibrium analysis of the division of labour : violation and enforcement of property rights, impersonal networking decisions and bundling sale." Monash University, School of Asian Languages and Studies, 2001. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/9256.
Full textVenditti, Fabrizio. "Essays on models with time-varying parameters for forecasting and policy analysis." Thesis, Queen Mary, University of London, 2017. http://qmro.qmul.ac.uk/xmlui/handle/123456789/24868.
Full textHadjiantoni, Stella. "Numerical methods for the recursive estimation of large-scale linear econometric models." Thesis, Queen Mary, University of London, 2015. http://qmro.qmul.ac.uk/xmlui/handle/123456789/27003.
Full textXu, Xingbai Xu. "Asymptotic Analysis for Nonlinear Spatial and Network Econometric Models." The Ohio State University, 2016. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1461249529.
Full textLazim, Mohamad Alias. "Econometric forecasting models and model evaluation : a case study of air passenger traffic flow." Thesis, Lancaster University, 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.296880.
Full textBerger, Loïc. "Essays on the economics of risk and uncertainty." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/209676.
Full textIn the second chapter, I analyze the effect of ambiguity on self-insurance and self-protection, that are tools used to deal with the uncertainty of facing a monetary loss when market insurance is not available (in the self-insurance model, the decision maker has the opportunity to furnish an effort to reduce the size of the loss occurring in the bad state of the world, while in the self-protection – or prevention – model, the effort reduces the probability of being in the bad state).
In a short note, in the context of a two-period model I first examine the links between risk-aversion, prudence and self-insurance/self-protection activities under risk. Contrary to the results obtained in the static one-period model, I show that the impacts of prudence and of risk-aversion go in the same direction and generate a higher level of prevention in the more usual situations. I also show that the results concerning self-insurance in a single period framework may be easily extended to a two-period context.
I then consider two-period self-insurance and self-protection models in the presence of ambiguity and analyze the effect of ambiguity aversion. I show that in most common situations, ambiguity prudence is a sufficient condition to observe an increase in the level of effort. I propose an interpretation of the model in the context of climate change, so that self-insurance and self-protection are respectively seen as adaptation and mitigation efforts a policy-maker should provide to deal with an uncertain catastrophic event, and interpret the results obtained as an expression of the Precautionary Principle.
In the third chapter, I introduce the economic theory developed to deal with ambiguity in the context of medical decision-making. I show that, under diagnostic uncertainty, an increase in ambiguity aversion always leads a physician whose goal is to act in the best interest of his patient, to choose a higher level of treatment. In the context of a dichotomic choice (treatment versus no treatment), this result implies that taking into account the attitude agents generally manifest towards ambiguity may induce a physician to change his decision by opting for treatment more often. I further show that under therapeutic uncertainty, the opposite happens, i.e. an ambiguity averse physician may eventually choose not to treat a patient who would have been treated under ambiguity neutrality.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
Betts, John Maurice 1960. "Just-in-time replenishment and component substitution decisions for assemble-to-order manufacturing when capital is investor-supplied." Monash University, School of Business Systems, 2002. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/9361.
Full textFurtenback, Örjan. "Fuel substitution in district heating plants : CGE modeling with a forest resource /." Umeå : Sveriges lantbruksuniv, 2009. http://epsilon.slu.se/11862745.pdf.
Full textCollado-Vindel, Maria Dolores. "Dynamic econometric models for cohort and panel data : methods and applications to life-cycle consumption." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 1994. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/2829/.
Full textBanerjee, Dyuti Sanker. "Essays on bids and offer matching in the labor market." Diss., Virginia Tech, 1994. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/37259.
Full textPh. D.
Hwang, Jungbin. "Fixed smoothing asymptotic theory in over-identified econometric models in the presence of time-series and clustered dependence." Thesis, University of California, San Diego, 2016. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10128431.
Full textIn the widely used over-identified econometric model, the two-step Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) estimator and inference, first suggested by Hansen (1982), require the estimation of optimal weighting matrix at the initial stages. For time series data and clustered dependent data, which is our focus here, the optimal weighting matrix is usually referred to as the long run variance (LRV) of the (scaled) sample moment conditions. To maintain generality and avoid misspecification, nowadays we do not model serial dependence and within-cluster dependence parametrically but use the heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAR) variance estimator in standard practice. These estimators are nonparametric in nature with high variation in finite samples, but the conventional increasing smoothing asymptotics, so called small-bandwidth asymptotics, completely ignores the finite sample variation of the estimated GMM weighting matrix. As a consequence, empirical researchers are often in danger of making unreliable inferences and false assessments of the (efficient) two-step GMM methods. Motivated by this issue, my dissertation consists of three papers which explore the efficiency and approximation issues in the two-step GMM methods by developing new, more accurate, and easy-to-use approximations to the GMM weighting matrix.
The first chapter, "Simple and Trustworthy Cluster-Robust GMM Inference" explores new asymptotic theory for two-step GMM estimation and inference in the presence of clustered dependence. Clustering is a common phenomenon for many cross-sectional and panel data sets in applied economics, where individuals in the same cluster will be interdependent while those from different clusters are more likely to be independent. The core of new approximation scheme here is that we treat the number of clusters G fixed as the sample size increases. Under the new fixed-G asymptotics, the centered two-step GMM estimator and two continuously-updating estimators have the same asymptotic mixed normal distribution. Also, the t statistic, J statistic, as well as the trinity of two-step GMM statistics (QLR, LM and Wald) are all asymptotically pivotal, and each can be modified to have an asymptotic standard F distribution or t distribution. We also suggest a finite sample variance correction further to improve the accuracy of the F or t approximation. Our proposed asymptotic F and t tests are very appealing to practitioners, as test statistics are simple modifications of the usual test statistics, and the F or t critical values are readily available from standard statistical tables. We also apply our methods to an empirical study on the causal effect of access to domestic and international markets on household consumption in rural China.
The second paper "Should we go one step further? An Accurate Comparison of One-step and Two-step procedures in a Generalized Method of Moments Framework” (coauthored with Yixiao Sun) focuses on GMM procedure in time-series setting and provides an accurate comparison of one-step and two-step GMM procedures in a fixed-smoothing asymptotics framework. The theory developed in this paper shows that the two-step procedure outperforms the one-step method only when the benefit of using the optimal weighting matrix outweighs the cost of estimating it. We also provide clear guidance on how to choose a more efficient (or powerful) GMM estimator (or test) in practice.
While our fixed smoothing asymptotic theory accurately describes sampling distribution of two-step GMM test statistic, the limiting distribution of conventional GMM statistics is non-standard, and its critical values need to be simulated or approximated by standard distributions in practice. In the last chapter, "Asymptotic F and t Tests in an Efficient GMM Setting" (coauthored with Yixiao Sun), we propose a simple and easy-to-implement modification to the trinity (QLM, LM, and Wald) of two-step GMM statistics and show that the modified test statistics are all asymptotically F distributed under the fixed-smoothing asymptotics. The modification is multiplicative and only involves the J statistic for testing over-identifying restrictions. In fact, what we propose can be regarded as the multiplicative variance correction for two-step GMM statistics that takes into account the additional asymptotic variance term under the fixed-smoothing asymptotics. The results in this paper can be immediately generalized to the GMM setting in the presence of clustered dependence.
Baldwin, Elizabeth. "Modelling preferences in economics." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2014. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:8abebfd3-58df-4223-83b8-ce2f43b5dc90.
Full textVashi, Vidyut H. "The effect of price, advertising, and income on consumer demand : an almost ideal demand system investigation /." Diss., This resource online, 1994. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-06062008-165751/.
Full textWONG, Wai Chung Gary. "Three essays on housing market in Hong Kong : implications for public policy and macro economy." Digital Commons @ Lingnan University, 2010. https://commons.ln.edu.hk/econ_etd/2.
Full textEnzinger, Sharn Emma 1973. "The economic impact of greenhouse policy upon the Australian electricity industry : an applied general equilibrium analysis." Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies, 2001. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/8383.
Full textShu, Hui. "Disequilibrium Transition of the Consumer Goods Market in China, 1954-1991." PDXScholar, 1995. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/1161.
Full textChoy, Hung-tat Lennon, and 蔡鴻達. "Pricing under information asymmetry: an analysis of the housing presale market from the new institutionaleconomics perspective." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2007. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B37908133.
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abstract
Real Estate and Construction
Doctoral
Doctor of Philosophy
Kotze, Kevin Lawrence. "The South African business cycle and the application of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/96055.
Full textENGLISH ABSTRACT: This dissertation considers the use of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models for the analysis of South African macroeconomic business cycle phenomena. It includes four separate, but interrelated parts, which follow a logical sequence. The rst part motivates the use of these models before establishing the theoretical foundations for these models. The theoretical foundations are accompanied by detailed derivations that are used to construct a model for a small open economy. The second part considers the properties of South African macroeconomic data that may be used to estimate the parameters in these models. It includes a discussion of the variables that may be included in such a model, as well as various methods that may be used to extract the business cycle. Thereafter, the sample size for the dataset is established, after investigating for possible structural breaks in the rst two moments of the data, using various univariate and multivariate techniques. The nal chapter of this part contains an investigation into the measures of core in ation, whereby a comparison of trimmed means, dynamic factor models and various wavelet decompositions are applied to data for South Africa. The third part considers the application of the dataset that was identi ed in part two, in a DSGE model that incorporates features that are typical of small open economies. It includes a discussion that relates to the role of the exchange rate in these models, which is found to contain key information. In addition, this part also includes a optimal policy investigation, which considers the reaction function of central bank. The nal part of this thesis considers more recent advances that have been applied to DSGE models for the South African economy. It includes an example of a nonlinear model that is estimated with the aid of a particle lter, which is then used for forecasting purposes. The forecasting results of both linear and nonlinear versions of the model are then compared with the results from various Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Bayesian VAR models.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie proefskrif oorweeg die gebruik van Dinamiese Stogastiese Algemene Ewewig (Engels: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE)) modelle vir die analise van besigheidsiklus gebeure in die Suid Afrikaanse makroekonomie. Dit bestaan uit vier aparte dog onderling verwante dele wat in « logiese ontwikkeling vorm. Die eerste deel motiveer die gebruik van dié modelle en daarna word die teoretiese onderbou van die modelle daargestel. Die teoretiese onderbou word aangevul met gedetaileerde stappe van die a eiding van die verhoudings wat gebruik word om « model vir « klein oop ekonomie saam te stel. Die tweede deel oorweeg die eienskappe van Suid Afrikaanse makroekonomiese data wat relevant is vir « ekonometriese model in hierdie konteks. Dit sluit « bespreking in van die veranderlikes wat vir so « model gebruik kan word, asook « bespreking van die verskeie metodes wat gebruik kan word om die besigheidsiklus uit die data te identi seer. Die steekproefgrootte van die data word dan vasgestel, ná die moontlikheid van strukturele onderbrekings van tendens in die eerste en tweede momente van die data ondersoek is met behulp van verskeie enkel en meervoudige-veranderlike tegnieke. Die laaste hoofstuk van dié deel is « studie van verskeie maatstawwe van kern in asie (core in ation), waar « vergelyking getref word tussen die resultate van die volgende metodes toegepas op Suid Afrikaanse data: afgesnede gemiddeldes (trimmed means), dinamiese faktor modelle en verskeie golfvormige onderverdelings (wavelet decompositions). Die derde deel gebruik die datastel, wat in deel twee ontwikkel is, in die passing van « DSGE model wat die tipiese eienskappe van « klein oop ekonomie inkorporeer. Dit sluit « bespreking in van die rol van die wisselkoers in hierdie tipe modelle, en daar word empiries bevind dat die wisselkoers belangrike inligting bevat. Hierdie deel sluit ook « ondersoek in van optimale beleid in terme van die reaksie funksie van die sentrale bank. Die laaste deel van die proefskrif bestudeer die resultate van onlangse ontwikkellinge in DSGE modelle wat toegepas word op die Suid Afrikaanse ekonomie. Dit sluit « voorbeeld van « nie-liniêre model wat met behulp van « partikel lter (particle lter) geskat word en gebruik word vir vooruitskattings. Die vooruitskattings uit beide die liniêre en nie-liniêre modelle word dan vergelyk met dié verkry uit verskeie Vektor
Paul, Pascal. "Essays on financial stability and monetary policy." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2016. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:49999782-6173-4e2b-8645-cab0b1561595.
Full textMalek, Mansour Jeoffrey H. G. "Three essays in international economics." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/210878.
Full textRegarding the approach pursued to tackle these problems, we have chosen to strictly remain within the boundaries of empirical (macro)economics - that is, applied econometrics. Though we systematically provide theoretical models to back up our empirical approach, our only real concern is to look at the stories the data can (or cannot) tell us. As to the econometric methodology, we will restrict ourselves to the use of panel data analysis. The large spectrum of techniques available within the panel framework allows us to utilize, for each of the problems at hand, the most suitable approach (or what we think it is).
Doctorat en sciences économiques, Orientation économie
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
Devaraj, Srikant. "Specification and estimation of the price responsiveness of alcohol demand| A policy analytic perspective." Thesis, Indiana University - Purdue University Indianapolis, 2016. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10032406.
Full textAccurate estimation of alcohol price elasticity is important for policy analysis – e.g.., determining optimal taxes and projecting revenues generated from proposed tax changes. Several approaches to specifying and estimating the price elasticity of demand for alcohol can be found in the literature. There are two keys to policy-relevant specification and estimation of alcohol price elasticity. First, the underlying demand model should take account of alcohol consumption decisions at the extensive margin – i.e., individuals’ decisions to drink or not – because the price of alcohol may impact the drinking initiation decision and one’s decision to drink is likely to be structurally different from how much they drink if they decide to do so (the intensive margin). Secondly, the modeling of alcohol demand elasticity should yield both theoretical and empirical results that are causally interpretable. The elasticity estimates obtained from the existing two-part model takes into account the extensive margin, but are not causally interpretable.
The elasticity estimates obtained using aggregate-level models, however, are causally interpretable, but do not explicitly take into account the extensive margin. There currently exists no specification and estimation method for alcohol price elasticity that both accommodates the extensive margin and is causally interpretable. I explore additional sources of bias in the extant approaches to elasticity specification and estimation: 1) the use of logged (vs. nominal) alcohol prices; and 2) implementation of unnecessarily restrictive assumptions underlying the conventional two-part model. I propose a new approach to elasticity specification and estimation that covers the two key requirements for policy relevance and remedies all such biases. I find evidence of substantial divergence between the new and extant methods using both simulated and the real data. Such differences are profound when placed in the context of alcohol tax revenue generation.
Lee, Huey-Lin 1974. "Modelling private vehicle use in a computable general equilibrium model of Taiwan." Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies, 2002. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/7895.
Full textCaria, Antonio Stefano. "Efficiency and other-regarding preferences in information and job-referral networks." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2015. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:4c243348-af82-4cdc-b402-e75997e4a599.
Full textPham, Tien Duc, and n/a. "A new approach to regional modelling: an Integrated Regional Equation System (IRES)." Griffith University. School of International Business and Asian Studies, 2004. http://www4.gu.edu.au:8080/adt-root/public/adt-QGU20041022.083520.
Full textMo, Lijia. "Examining the reliability of logistic regression estimation software." Diss., Kansas State University, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/7059.
Full textDepartment of Agricultural Economics
Allen M. Featherstone
Bryan W. Schurle
The reliability of nine software packages using the maximum likelihood estimator for the logistic regression model were examined using generated benchmark datasets and models. Software packages tested included: SAS (Procs Logistic, Catmod, Genmod, Surveylogistic, Glimmix, and Qlim), Limdep (Logit, Blogit), Stata (Logit, GLM, Binreg), Matlab, Shazam, R, Minitab, Eviews, and SPSS for all available algorithms, none of which have been previously tested. This study expands on the existing literature in this area by examination of Minitab 15 and SPSS 17. The findings indicate that Matlab, R, Eviews, Minitab, Limdep (BFGS), and SPSS provided consistently reliable results for both parameter and standard error estimates across the benchmark datasets. While some packages performed admirably, shortcomings did exist. SAS maximum log-likelihood estimators do not always converge to the optimal solution and stop prematurely depending on starting values, by issuing a ``flat" error message. This drawback can be dealt with by rerunning the maximum log-likelihood estimator, using a closer starting point, to see if the convergence criteria are actually satisfied. Although Stata-Binreg provides reliable parameter estimates, there is no way to obtain standard error estimates in Stata-Binreg as of yet. Limdep performs relatively well, but did not converge due to a weakness of the algorithm. The results show that solely trusting the default settings of statistical software packages may lead to non-optimal, biased or erroneous results, which may impact the quality of empirical results obtained by applied economists. Reliability tests indicate severe weaknesses in SAS Procs Glimmix and Genmod. Some software packages fail reliability tests under certain conditions. The finding indicates the need to use multiple software packages to solve econometric models.
Raychaudhuri, Subhashis. "Essays on game theory and its application to social discrimination and segregation." Diss., Virginia Tech, 1994. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/37258.
Full textPh. D.
Ndungo, Lusenge Patrick. "Revenue, trade and welfare effects of the COMESA FTA on the Democratic Republic of Congo." Thesis, Nelson Mandela University, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/14256.
Full textAYIVOR, EDWARD CARLOS KOFI. "AN ECONOMETRIC STUDY OF THE DECISION TO SEEK MEDICAL CARE IN WEST AFRICA: A CASE STUDY OF THE GHANA DANFA HEALTH PROJECT USING DISCRETE CHOICE MODELS (DEMAND, LOGIT)." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/187923.
Full textBury, Thomas. "Collective behaviours in the stock market: a maximum entropy approach." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/209341.
Full textThe study of the structure and collective modes of financial markets attracts more and more attention. It has been shown that some agent based models are able to reproduce some stylized facts. Despite their partial success, there is still the problem of rules design. In this work, we used a statistical inverse approach to model the structure and co-movements in financial markets. Inverse models restrict the number of assumptions. We found that a pairwise maximum entropy model is consistent with the data and is able to describe the complex structure of financial systems. We considered the existence of a critical state which is linked to how the market processes information, how it responds to exogenous inputs and how its structure changes. The considered data sets did not reveal a persistent critical state but rather oscillations between order and disorder.
In this framework, we also showed that the collective modes are mostly dominated by pairwise co-movements and that univariate models are not good candidates to model crashes. The analysis also suggests a genuine adaptive process since both the maximum variance of the log-likelihood and the accuracy of the predictive scheme vary through time. This approach may provide some clue to crash precursors and may provide highlights on how a shock spreads in a financial network and if it will lead to a crash. The natural continuation of the present work could be the study of such a mechanism.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
Bauknecht, Klaus Dieter. "A macroeconometric policy model of the South African economy based on weak rational expectations with an application to monetary policy." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/51575.
Full textENGLISH ABSTRACT: The Lucas critique states that if expectations are not explicitly dealt with, conventional econometric models are inappropriate for policy analyses, as their coefficients are not policy invariant. The inclusion of rational expectations in ·conventional model building has been the most common response to this critique. The concept of rational expectations has received several interpretations. In numerous studies, these expectations are associated with model consistent expectations in the sense that expectations and model solutions are identical. To derive a solution, these models require unique algorithms and assumptions regarding their terminal state, in particular when forward-looking expectations are present. An alternative that avoids these issues is the concept of weak rational expectations, which emphasises that expectation errors should not be systematic. Expectations are therefore formed on the basis of an underlying structure, but full knowledge of the model is not essential. The accommodation of this type of rational expectations is accomplished by means of an explicit specification of an expectations equation consistent with the macro econometric model's broad structure. The estimation of coefficients relating to expectations is achieved through an Instrumental Variable approach. In South Africa, monetary policy has been consistent and transparent in line with the recommendations of the De Kock Commission. This allows the modelling of the policy instrument of the South African Reserve Bank, i.e. the Bank rate, by means of a policy reaction function. Given this transparency in monetary policy, the accommodation of expectations of the Bank rate is essential in modelling the full impact of monetary policy and in avoiding the Lucas critique. This is accomplished through weak rational expectations, based on the reaction function of the Reserve Bank. The accommodation of expectations of a policy instrument also allows the modelling of anticipated and unanticipated policies as alternative assumptions regarding the expectations process can be made during simulations. Conventional econometric models emphasise the demand side of the economy, with equations focusing on private consumption, investment, exports and imports and possibly changes in inventories. In this study, particular emphasis in the model specification is also placed on the impact of monetary policy on government debt and debt servicing costs. Other dimensions of the model include the modelling of the money supply and balance of payments, short- and long-term interest rates, domestic prices, the exchange rate, the wage rate and employment as well as weakly rational expectations of inflation and the Bank rate. The model has been specified and estimated by usmg concepts such as cointegration and Error Correction modelling. Numerous tests, including the assessment of the Root Mean Square Percentage Error, have been employed to test the adequacy of the model. Similarly, tests are carried out to ensure weak rational expectations. Numerous simulations are carried out with the model and the results are compared to relevant alternative studies. The simulation results show that the reduction of inflation by means of only monetary policy could impose severe costs on the economy in terms of real sector volatility.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Lucas-kritiek beweer dat konvensionele ekonometriese modelle nie gebruik kan word vir beleidsontleding nie, aangesien dit nie voorsiening maak vir die verandering in verwagtings wanneer beleidsaanpassings gemaak word nie. Die insluiting van rasionele verwagtinge in konvensionele ekonometriese modelle is die mees algemene reaksie op die Lukas-kritiek. Ten einde die praktiese insluiting van rasionele verwagtings III ekonometriese modelbou te vergemaklik, word in hierdie studie gebruik gemaak van sogenaamde "swak rasionele verwagtings", wat slegs vereis dat verwagtingsfoute me sistematies moet wees nie. Die beraming van die koëffisiënte van die verwagtingsveranderlikes word gedoen met behulp van die Instrumentele Veranderlikes-benadering. Monetêre beleid in Suid-Afrika was histories konsekwent en deursigtig in ooreenstemming met die aanbevelings van die De Kock Kommissie. Die beleidsinstrument van die Suid-Afrikaanse Reserwebank, naamlik die Bankkoers, kan gevolglik gemodelleer word met behulp van 'n beleidsreaksie-funksie. Ten einde die Lukas-kritiek te akkommodeer, moet verwagtings oor die Bankkoers egter ingesluit word wanneer die volle impak van monetêre beleid gemodelleer word. Dit word vermag met die insluiting van swak rasionele verwagtings, gebaseer op die reaksie-funksie van die Reserwebank. Sodoende kan die impak van verwagte en onverwagte beleidsaanpassings gesimuleer word. Konvensionele ekonometriese modelle beklemtoon die vraagkant van die ekonomie, met vergelykings vir verbruik, investering, invoere, uitvoere en moontlik die verandering in voorrade. In hierdie studie word daar ook klem geplaas op die impak van monetêre beleid op staatskuld en die koste van staatsskuld. Ander aspekte wat gemodelleer word, is die geldvoorraad en betalingsbalans, korttermyn- en langtermynrentekoerse, binnelandse pryse, die wisselkoers, loonkoerse en indiensneming, asook swak rasionele verwagtings van inflasie en die Bankkkoers. Die model is gespesifiseer en beraam met behulp van ko-integrasie en die gebruik van lang-en korttermynvergelykings. Die gebruiklike toetse is uitgevoer om die toereikendheid van die model te toets. Verskeie simulasies is uitgevoer met die model en die resultate is vergelyk met ander relevante studies. Die gevolgtrekking word gemaak dat die verlaging van inflasie deur alleenlik gebruik te maak van monetêre beleid 'n swaar las op die ekonomie kan lê in terme van volatiliteit in die reële sektor.
Han, Heejoon. "Econometric analysis of ARCH models with persistent covariates." Thesis, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1911/18912.
Full text"Spatial competition, product characteristics, and demand uncertainty." 2009. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5894037.
Full textThesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2009.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 45-46).
Abstract also in Chinese.
Spatial Competition in Two-Dimensional Product Space --- p.1
Chapter 1.1 --- Introduction --- p.1
Chapter 1.2 --- First model: Ordinal characteristics --- p.5
Chapter 1.3 --- Second model: Categorical characteristics --- p.14
Chapter 1.4 --- Conclusion --- p.18
Spatial Competition with Demand Uncertainty --- p.21
Chapter 2.1 --- Introduction --- p.21
Chapter 2.2 --- Model --- p.26
Chapter 2.3 --- Revelation of market density before transportation --- p.29
Chapter 2.4 --- Revelation of market density after transportation --- p.36
Chapter 2.5 --- Perfectly informed consumers --- p.38
Chapter 2.6 --- Application: Negative externality --- p.40
Chapter 2.7 --- Conclusion --- p.42
References --- p.45
Kim, Hyun Jong. "Three essays on oligopoly and financial structure." Thesis, 2002. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/utexas/fullcit?p3101219.
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