Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Structural reliability'

This thesis considers control of moored marine structures, referred to as position mooring. Moored marine structures can take on a number of different forms, and two applications are considered in this work, namely aquacultural farms and petroleum producing vessels. It is anticipated that future aquacultural farms will be significantly larger than the existing ones, and placed in much more exposed areas. Hence, there is a significant technology transfer potential between the two seemingly different fields of aquaculture and petroleum exploitation.

Today’s implemented state of the art positioning controllers use predetermined safety regions and gain-scheduling for evaluating the necessary thruster force for the vessel to operate safely. This represents a suboptimal solution; the operator is given a significant number of variables to consider, and the thrusters are run more than necessary. Also, it is likely that a more conservative controller regime does not necessarily increase the overall reliability of the structure as compared with a less conservative but better designed controller.

Motivated by this, a new control methodology and strategy for position mooring is developed. Two controllers using information about the reliability of the mooring system are implemented and tested, both via numerical simulations and model scale experiments. The first controller developed uses a reliability criterion based on the tension in the mooring system as a pretuning device. A nonlinear function based on the energy contained by the system is included in the controller to ensure that the thrusters are run only when needed. The controller is an output-feedback controller, based on measurement of position and estimated values of the velocities and slowly varying environmental loads. The second controller developed contains the reliability criterion intrinsically, thus, less pretuning is needed. The backstepping technique is applied during the design process, and the controller has global asymptotical stability properties.

In general, because of the unpredictable nature of fire and the various uncertainties related, for example, to material properties at elevated temperature, the reliability of structural fire design can be justifiably questioned. In this project, a typical structural steel design for fire condition is assessed for its reliability. The assessment consists of estimating the probability of failure of structural steel elements exposed to a wide range of fully developed fires. A number of scenarios to account for different passive protection systems and the variability in properties of related parameters are modelled. The main tool of analysis is Monte Carlo simulation using a software named @RISK. The estimated probabilities of failure or reliability indices are measured against acceptable or target values so that definite conclusion with regards to safe or unsafe design can be made. The target probability of failure and the reliability index are also worked out in this project. The overall results show that applying reliability assessment to structural fire design is of great value in pointing out shortcomings in the design and in enhancing the performance assessment of real structures.

CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO
Neste trabalho são apresentados conceitos usados na avaliação da confiabilidade estrutural com o objetivo de calcular a probabilidade de falha de uma estrutura enquanto ela atende aos fins para os quais foi projetada durante sua vida útil. Uma metodologia de análise de confiabilidade estrutural foi desenvolvida, tendo como foco os dutos de transporte de óleo e gás natural, embora possa ser aplicada a diferentes equipamentos. A metodologia permite o acoplamento de diferentes eventos que possam ocorrer na vida de uma estrutura. Entende-se por eventos a aparição de defeitos por diferentes vias: processos corrosivos, danos por terceiros, operações incorretas, etc., ou, eventos relacionados à inspeção da estrutura, duto ou equipamento. Cada evento é descrito por uma função de estado limite do tipo capacidade x demanda. O acoplamento desses estados limites é dado pela união ou interseção deles (sistemas em série, paralelo, ou combinação deles). A análise é reduzida ao cálculo da confiabilidade de um sistema, cuja solução é feita usando a função padrão multinormal e os métodos de primeira ordem FORM, para o cálculo da probabilidade de falha de cada estado limite, e os métodos do produto das probabilidades condicionais PCM e I-PCM, para o cálculo da probabilidade de falha do sistema através da integral multinormal. As informações obtidas dos resultados desta metodologia podem ser úteis na geração de planos de inspeção, análises preditivas e análises de risco, para contribuir na tomada de decisões sobre prazos e técnicas de inspeção a serem empregadas. A metodologia mencionada acima pode ser implementada em um programa de gerenciamento de confiabilidade estrutural, o qual deve ser capaz de acoplar todos os eventos, os dados conhecidos, as incertezas próprias dos dados e as novas informações ao longo da vida útil de uma estrutura.
This work presents concepts used in the assessment of structural reliability in order to calculate the probability of failure of a structure as it serves the purposes for which it was designed during their lifetime. A methodology for structural reliability analysis has been developed for the pipeline transportation of oil and natural gas, although, this methodology can be applied to different equipment. The methodology allows the coupling of different events that may occur in the life of a structure. The events can be understood as defects by corrosion, damage by third parties, incorrect operations, etc. or events related to inspection of the structure, pipeline or equipment. Each event is described by a limit state function of the type capacity vs. demand. The coupling of these states limit is given by the union or intersection of these (series systems, parallel systems, or combination of them). The analysis is reduced to system reliability computation and the solution is reached using the integration of the standard multinormal function and first order reliability methods- FORM to calculate the probability of failure of system. The multinormal integral is computation using the product of conditional marginal method-PCM and the improvement of PCM method. The results obtained of this methodology may be useful in the generation of inspection plans and in predictive and risk analysis. The methodology described can be implemented in a structural reliability management program. The program should be able to coupling all events that occur in the lifetime of a pipeline or structure.

A simulation-based reliability analysis method is presented and evaluated. This method is intended for problems for which most probable point of failure (MPP) search-based methods fail or provide inaccurate results, and for which Monte Carlo simulation and its variants are too costly to apply. This may occur in the evaluation of complex engineering problems of low failure probability. The method used to address this problem is a variant of conditional expectation and works by sampling on the failure boundary without relying on the MPP. The effectiveness of the method is compared to a selection of other commonly available reliability methods considering a variety of analytical as well as more complex engineering problems. The results indicate that the method has the potential to deliver solutions of high efficiency and accuracy for a wide range of difficult reliability problems.

Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2014.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Standards define target reliability levels that govern the safety of designed structures. These target levels should be around an economic optimum for the class of structure under consideration. However, society may have safety requirements in excess of that required to achieve an economic optimum. The LQI criterion can be used to determine society’s willingness to invest in safety, thereby defining a minimum acceptable safety- or reliability level. This thesis determines economically optimised reliability levels for reliability class two concrete structures in South Africa, over a range of typical input parameters. Rackwitz’s (2000) approach is used here, adjusted for the South African context. The structure is described using a simple limit state function, defined as the difference between load and resistance, with resistance a function of a global safety parameter. South African construction costs, costs of increasing safety, failure costs and discount rates are used in the objective function for economic optimisation. Life Quality Index (LQI) theory is used as a basis to derive society’s willingness to pay (SWTP) for safety and the corresponding reliability level is found by applying the LQI criterion. In the South African context the derivation of SWTP presents some challenges, which is discussed. Situations where the minimum required reliability would exceed the economically optimum reliability level are discussed. Various reliability based cost optimization case studies are conducted covering a broad range of typical concrete design situations. From these case studies a range of target reliability indices are derived for typical concrete structural components and failure modes. Obtained values are compared to current South African target levels of reliability provided by the South African loading code and recommendations are made. The approach used by Rackwitz (2000) is compared with results obtained from case studies and used as basis to estimate optimum reliability levels for other types of buildings. Functions are written in MATLAB to allow replication of the study for others seeking to derive optimum reliability indices.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Standaarde spesifiseer teiken betroubaarheidsvlakke wat die veiligheidsvlak van ontwerpte strukture bepaal. Hierdie teikenvlak moet rondom die ekonomiese optimum wees vir die klas van struktuur onder oorweging. Die samelewing verkies moontlik ‘n hoër veiligheidsvlak as wat deur die ekonomiese optimum dikteer word. Die LKI (Lewens Kwaliteit Indeks) maatstaf kan gebuik word om die samelewing se bereidwilligheid om in veiligheid te belê te bepaal en sodoende ‘n minimum veiligheidsvlak bepaal. Hierdie tesis bepaal die ekonomiese optimum betroubaarheidsvlak vir klas twee beton strukture in Suid-Afrika vir wisselende parameters. Rackwitz (2000) se benadering word in hierdie studie gebruik en is aangepas vir Suid-Afrikaanse omstandighede. Die struktuur word beskryf deur ‘n eenvoudige limiet staat funksie, gedefinieer as die verskil tussen die las en weerstand, met die weerstand as die funksie van ‘n globale veiligheidsparameter. Suid-Afrikaanse konstruksie koste, veiligheidsvermedering koste, falingskoste en diskonteer koerse word gebruik vir optimering. Die LKI teorie word gebruik om SBB (Samelewing Bereidheid om te Belê) vir veiligheid af te lei en die ooreenkomstige betroubaarheidsvlak word bepaal deur die LKI maatstaf toe te pas. In die afleiding hiervan vir Suid-Afrikaanse omstandighede is sekere uitdagings teegekom wat bespreek word. Situasies waar die minimum betroubaarheidsvlak hoer is as die ekonomiese optimum word bespreek. Verskillende betroubaarheids gebaseerde optimering gevalstudies word gedoen op tipiese beton struktuur elemente. Van hierdie gevalstudies is optimum betroubaarheidsindekse vir die tipiese beton elemente en galingsmodusie afgelei. Die betroubaarheidsindekse word vergelyk met huidige betroubaarheidsindekse soos wat voorgeskryf is in die Suid-Afrikaanse laskode (SANS10160-1(2011)). Rackwitz (2000) se benadering word vergelyk met die resultate van die gevallestudies en word gebruik as basis om optimum betroubaarheidsvlakke vir ander tipes geboue te voorspel. MATLAB funksies is geprogrameer om minimum en optimum betroubaarheidsindekse af te lei.

Structural reliability technology provides analytical tools for management of uncertainty in all relevant design factors in structural and mechanical systems. Generally, the goal of analysis is to compute probabilities of failure in structural components or system having single or multiple failure mode. Alternately, modern optimization methods provide efficient numerical algorithms for locating optima, particularly in large-scale systems having prescribed deterministic constraints. Optimization procedure can accommodate random variables either directly in its objective function or as one of the primary constraints. The combination of elementary optimization and probabilistic design techniques is the subject of this study. Presented herein is a general strategy for optimization when the design factors are random variables and some or all of the constraints are probability statements. A literature review has indicated that optimization technology in a reliability context has not been fully explored for the general case of nonlinear performance functions and nonnormal variates associated multiple failure modes. This research focuses upon development of the theory to address this general problem. Because analysis algorithms are complicated, a computer code, program RELOPT, is constructed to automate the analysis. The objective function to be minimized is arbitrary, but would generally be the total expected lifetime costs including all initial costs as well as all costs associated with failure. Uncertainty is assumed to be possible in all design factors (including the factors to be determined), and they are modeled as random variables. In general, all of the constraints can be probability statements. The generalized reduce gradient (GRG) method was used for optimization calculations. Options for point probability calculations are first order reliability analysis using the Rackwitz-Fiessler (R-F) or advanced reliability analysis using Wu/FPI. For system reliability analysis either the first order Cornell's bounds or the second order Ditlevsen's bounds can be specified. Several examples are presented to illustrate the full range of capabilities of RELOPT. The program is validated by checking with independent and exact solutions. An example is provided which demonstrates that the cost of running RELOPT can be substantial as the size of the problem increases.

Cost and quality are key properties of a product, possibly even the two most important. Onedefinition of quality is fitness for purpose. Load-bearing products, i.e. structural components,loose their fitness for purpose if they fail. Thus, the ability to withstand failure is a fundamentalmeasure of quality for structural components. Reliability based design optimization(RBDO) is an approach for development of structural components which aims to minimizethe cost while constraining the probability of failure. However, the computational effort ofan RBDO applied to large-scale engineering problems has prohibited it from employment inindustrial applications. This thesis presents methods for computationally efficient RBDO.A review of the work presented on RBDO algorithms reveals that three constituentsof an RBDO algorithm has rendered significant attention; i ) the solution strategy for andnumerical treatment of the probabilistic constraints, ii ) the surrogate model, and iii) theexperiment design. A surrogate model is ”a model of a model”, i.e. a computationally cheapapproximation of a physics-based but computationally expensive computer model. It is fittedto responses from the physics-motivated model obtained via a thought-through combinationof experiments called an experiment design.In Paper A, the general algorithm for RBDO employed in this work, including the sequentialapproximation procedure used to treat the probabilistic constraints, is laid out. A singleconstraint approximation point (CAP) is used to save computational effort with acceptablelosses in accuracy. The approach is used to optimize a truck component and incorporatesthe effect that production related design variables like machining and shot peening have onfatigue life.The focus in Paper B is on experiment design. An algorithm employed to construct anovel experiment design for problems with multiple constraints is presented. It is based onan initial screening and uses the specific problem structure to combine one-factor-at-a-timeexperiments to a several-factors-at-a-time experiment design which reduces computationaleffort.In Paper C, a surrogate model tailored for RBDO is introduced. It is motivated by appliedsolid mechanics considerations and the use of the first order reliability method to evaluate theprobabilistic constraint. An optimal CAP is furthermore deduced from the surrogate model.In Paper D, the paradigm to use sets of experiments rather than one experiment at atime is challenged. A new procedure called experiments on demand (EoD) is presented. TheEoD procedure utilizes the core of RBDO to quantify the demand for new experiments andaugments it by a D-optimality criterion for added robustness and numerical stability.
QC 20120229

The main aim of this thesis is to develop a probabilistic methodology, based on structural reliability theory, which allows information gained during manufacture, fabrication, construction and service life of a particular structural system to be systematically combined with data available at the design stage in order to improve reliability predictions about the structure's performance during its remaining service life. Broadly speaking, the objectives of the thesis can be summarised as follows: • To develop generic strategies and methods for reliability-based structural integrity assessments focussing on specific structures or plant • To further develop reliability-updating procedures so as to sharpen predictions of remaining life • To determine the value of obtaining additional in-service data in terms of improved SI calculations and reduction of model uncertainty. To achieve these objectives, consideration is restricted to two factors affecting the SI of offshore steel jacket structures, namely fatigue crack growth and system reliability performance under the influence of environmental loading.

This thesis aims at developing new methodologies for the reliability analysis of structural systems with applications to offshore and aeronautical fields. In general, sructures of practical interest are complex redundant systems, in which more than one element is required to fail in order to have catastrophic failure. Moreover, ramdomness inherently exists in both material properties and external loads. As a result, complex structural systems are typically characterised by a huge number of possible failure sequences, of which only some are most likely to occour. Therefore, for an efficient risk analysis, only the dominant failure modes need to be considered, so as to minimise the number of failure paths as well as the computational costs associated to their enumeration and evaluation. However, although several techniques have been developed for the identification of the critical failure sequences, these methods are still either time-demanding or prone to miss potential failure modes. These challenges motivated the first part of the thesis, in which the merits of a risk assessment framework recently developed for truss and frame structures are here investigated in view of its extensive application to the offshore field. To this end, the case study of a jacket-type platform under an extreme sea state is considered. First, the dominant failure modes of the structure are rapidly identified by a multi-point parallel search employing a genetic algorithm. Then, a multi-scale system reliability analysis is performed, in which the statistical dependence among both structural elements and failure modes is fully considered through simple matrix operations. Finally, the accuracy and the efficiency of the proposed approach are successfully validated against crude Monte Carlo simulation. In the second part of the thesis, system reliability theory is applied to the uncertainty quantification of the longitudinal tensile strength of UniDirectional (UD) composites, a structural component very common in aircraft structures. Predictive models for size effects in this class of materials are paramount for scaling small-coupon experimental results to the design of large composite structures. In this respect, a Monte Carlo progressive failure analysis is proposed to calculate the strength distributions of hierarchical fibre bundles, which are formed by grouping a predefined number of smaller-order bundles into a larger-order one. The present approach is firstly validated against a recent analytical model to be later applied to more complex load-sharing configurations. The resulting distributions are finally used to analyse the damage accumulation process and the formation of clusters of broken fibres during progressive failure.
Lo scopo principale di questa tesi è lo sviluppo di nuove metodologie per determinare l’affidabilità dei sistemi strutturali con applicazioni sia in campo offshore che aeronautico. In generale, strutture di interesse pratico sono caratterizzate da un elevato grado di ridondanza, per cui il collasso globale richiede la rottura simulatanea e/o progressiva di più elementi. Inoltre, i sistemi fisici sono influenzati da diverse fonti di incertezza, quali le prorietà dei materiali e le condizioni ambientali e operative. Pertanto, il collasso strutturale può avvenire con diverse modalità (modi di guasto), di cui solo alcune possiedono una probabilità di accadimento significativa (modi di guasto dominanti). Per una valutazione efficiente del rischio risulta dunque indispensabile limitare l’analisi ai soli modi dominanti, così da ridurre il costo computazionale associato alle fasi di identificazione e di valutazione dei modi stessi. Tuttavia, nonostante in letteratura vi siano numerose soluzioni per l’analisi del rischio, tali metodi richiedono ancora tempi di calcolo notevoli e sono inclini a tralasciare potenziali modi di guasto. Queste motivazioni conducono alla prima parte delle tesi, in cui si ripropone un metodo recentemente sviluppato per l’analisi del rischio di strutture discrete (reticolari e telai) in previsione di una sua applicazione al campo offshore. A tale scopo si considera il caso di studio di una piattaforma di tipo jacket in condizioni di mare estremo. Dapprima, i modi di guasto dominanti vengono rapidamente identificati per mezzo di un algoritmo genetico. In seguito, l’affidabilità del sistema viene calcolata mediante un approccio multi-scala che fa uso di semplici operazioni matriciali, in cui la dipendenza statistica viene considerata sia tra le componenti strutturali che tra i modi di guasto dominanti. Infine, l’accuratezza e l’efficienza del metodo vengono testate con successo tramite comparazione con Monte Carlo. Nella seconda parte della tesi, la teoria dell’affidabilità dei sistemi viene applicata per la quantificazione dell’incertezza nella resistenza a trazione di compositi UniDirezionali (UD), problema di notevole interesse per l’ambito aeronautico e non solo. Infatti, il comportamento aletorio di questi materiali è fortemente influenzato da effetti di scala, che limitano la progettazione di strutture in composito di grandi dimensioni sulla base dei dati sperimentali ricavati da provini. In quest’ottica, si propone di modellare fasci di fibre secondo una legge di scala gerarchica, ossia raggruppando un numero prestabilito di fasci più piccoli in un fascio di ordine superiore. La distribuzione di resistenza di tali fasci viene quindi simulata attraverso un’analisi di collasso progressivo. Questo approccio, dapprima validato rispetto ad un modello analitico recentemente sviluppato per disposizioni semplici di fasci, viene poi esteso a configurazioni più realistiche. I risultati così ottenuti sono infine processati per l’analisi statistica del danno.

Thesis (Degreee of Aeronautical and Astronautical Engineering) Naval Postgraduate School, September 1998.
Thesis advisor(s): Edward M. Wu. "September 1998." Includes bibliographical references (p. 53). Also available online.

Research in the field of reliability based design is mainly focused on two sub-areas: The computation of the probability of failure and its integration in the reliability based design optimization (RBDO) loop. Four papers are presented in this work, representing a contribution to both sub-areas. In the first paper, a new Second Order Reliability Method (SORM) is presented. As opposed to the most commonly used SORMs, the presented approach is not limited to hyper-parabolic approximation of the performance function at the Most Probable Point (MPP) of failure. Instead, a full quadratic fit is used leading to a better approximation of the real performance function and therefore more accurate values of the probability of failure. The second paper focuses on the integration of the expression for the probability of failure for general quadratic function, presented in the first paper, in RBDO. One important feature of the proposed approach is that it does not involve locating the MPP. In the third paper, the expressions for the probability of failure based on general quadratic limit-state functions presented in the first paper are applied for the special case of a hyper-parabola. The expression is reformulated and simplified so that the probability of failure is only a function of three statistical measures: the Cornell reliability index, the skewness and the kurtosis of the hyper-parabola. These statistical measures are functions of the First-Order Reliability Index and the curvatures at the MPP. In the last paper, an approximate and efficient reliability method is proposed. Focus is on computational efficiency as well as intuitiveness for practicing engineers, especially regarding probabilistic fatigue problems where volume methods are used. The number of function evaluations to compute the probability of failure of the design under different types of uncertainties is a priori known to be 3n+2 in the proposed method, where n is the number of stochastic design variables.

QC 20160317

This research has arisen from recent changes in attitudes to offshore safety. To help demonstrate structural safety to the Health and Safety Executive, operators are increasingly using structural system reliability assessments. While significant developments have been achieved in this area, there are still a number of uncertainties associated with such assessments. Unresolved technical issues also introduce significant variability in the results. The aim of this project is to develop a framework for system reliability, which will set a basis for moving towards more consistent reliability assessments. An extensive review study was undertaken first to establish the state of the art in the area of structure system reliability analysis of offshore structures. Based on the findings of this study, a generic system reliability framework was developed which was then developed further for specific application to fixed offshore platforms. These initial studies identified some of the key technical issues that required further investigation. The subsequent offshore application and sensitivity study, using a representative fixed platform model, concentrated on these issues and in particular on the effects of foundation parameters on ultimate strength and their interaction with other key parameters in determining the resistance function. The effect of foundation parameters and different modelling methods on system strength and reliability of fixed offshore platforms, which has largely been neglected in the past, was also investigated. The response surface methodology was developed for system reliability assessment of offshore structures incorporating the effect of foundation reliability. The findings were then used to revise the framework and provide more comprehensive account of key steps in the process of system reliability assessment. Some guidelines on the application of the response surface technique to fixed platform assessment were developed. In addition, an initial screening tool was also proposed for assessing the level of complexity required for the resistance model of the reliability assessment. The presentation of the reliability framework provides a comprehensive account of the various steps, methods and decisions associated with system reliability analysis. The framework, which can be used in both the design and reassessment of structures, can provide a basis for moving towards more consistent reliability assessments. Recommendations on areas that require further research are also presented.

Standardized formative mathematics assessments typically fail to capture the depth of current standards and curricula. Consequently, these assessments demonstrate limited utility for informing the instructional implementation choices of teachers. This problem is particularly salient as it relates to the mathematical problem solving process. The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate the psychometric characteristics of Structural-Symbolic Translation Fluency, a curriculum-based measure (CBM) of mathematical problem solving. The development of the assessment was based on previous research describing the cognitive process of translation (Mayer, 2002) as well as mathematical concept development at the quantitative, structural, and symbolic levels (Dehaene, 2011; Faulkner, 2009; Griffin, 2004). Data on the Structural-Symbolic Translation Fluency assessment were collected from 11 mathematics and psychometrics experts and 42 second grade students during the spring of 2016. Data were analyzed through descriptive statistics, frequencies, Spearman-Brown correlation, joint probability of agreement, Pearson correlation, and hierarchical multiple regression. Psychometric features of interest included internal consistency, inter-rater reliability, test-retest reliability, content validity, and criterion-related validity. Testing of the 9 research questions revealed 9 significant findings. Despite significant statistical findings, several coefficients did not meet pre-established criteria required for validation. Hypothesized modifications to improve the psychometric characteristics are suggested as the focus of future research. In addition, recommendations are made concerning the role of assessing the translation process of mathematical problem solving.

The subject of this thesis is framed in the field of vibration based monitoring. In particular the work is focused on: implementing techniques of extraction of features, the use of collected data to recognize damages and the combined application of knowledge coming from monitoring systems with the classical structural safety formulations to a real case study.

Reliability analysis of series structural systems with emphasis on problems typical for metal fatigue is addressed. Specific goals include the following: (1) Given the distribution of strength of the components and the distribution of external loads on the system what is the probability of failure of the system? (2) Given the target safety index for the system, what would be the target safety index for the components? Exact solutions in the analysis of series structural systems only exists for some special problems. Some of these special problems are investigated. In particular some special cases of the problem of unequal element reliabilities are considered and some interesting observations are made. Numerical integration is in general required even when an exact solution exists. A correction or adjustment factor is developed for an important class of problems. This factor makes it possible to relate element and system probabilities of failure without numerical integration. However in most cases no exact solution to the structural series system problem exists. Approximations by for instance bounds on the probability of failure or Monte Carlo simulation has been the only way of approximating solutions. These two methods are generally not good approximation schemes since they are either too crude or too expensive. In this dissertation an approximation scheme for analysis of series systems where no exact solution exists is developed. The method only requires a simple numerical integration if the component safety index and the correlation coefficient between failure modes is known. Numerous examples are used to verify the method against known exact results and excellent estimates are obtained. Applications by practical examples is also given. In the appendix the problem of convergence of fatigue life distribution is also summarized.

The twin aims of this research were to improve the presentation of codified design information and to investigate the methods used to calibrate the partial safety factors applied to resistance functions (ΎR-factors) so as to improve both the economy and the reliability of the predictions. A restructured version of EC3 (known as F-EC3) was developed by rearranging the design clauses on the basis of design tasks. This system enables the code to become more user-friendly. Hypertext versions of both EC3 and F-EC3 have been created on PC-based Microsoft Windows compatible software. The implications of hypertext on structural codes are investigated. The procedure used for calibrating the ΥR-factors contained within EC3 - (the Annex Z method) was reviewed and an alternative technique involving less assumption is proposed. A comprehensive set of measurements recording the material strength and the geometric properties of steel were obtained and collated. The large data set (over 7000 tests) was sufficient to evaluate the type of probability distribution characterising the variability of the basic material and geometric properties of structural steel. The resulting data were combined with experimental test results to determine the reliability of plate girder design and restrained beam design. The theoretical shear buckling resistance of plate girders (predicted by the simple post-critical and tension field, methods) was compared with experimental test results to determine reliability. The analysis demonstrated that plate girder design falls well short of the target reliability and an adjustment to the design methods is required in order to ensure safe design. A series of 4-point bending tests on laterally restrained beams were conducted to establish the accuracy of the Mpl.Rd resistance function. This study quantifies the degree of conservatism inherent in the Mpl.Rd design method and provides convincing evidence of the need to reduce the ΥR-factor applied to this resistance function. A modification is proposed to the design formulae which improves accuracy and permits the full moment capacity of restrained beams to be utilised.

The structural systems in practice are often very complex consisting of iber of components having intricate geometries. Each component may have different failure modes which depend upon variability of material properties, production processes and loadings. Optimisation on design requirements of the complex structural system requires adopting modern computer techniques for evolution and analysis. Finite Element Methods (FEM) is widely used computing technique in engineering design. Since structural analysis tools, such as Finite Element Analysis (FEA) software, are traditionally developed independent of reliability technologies. Consequently, it is common and conventional approach to perform structural analysis and reliability analysis separately, mainly, because established methods and tools for combined analysis are not readily available as yet. Each of the technology domain viz. structural analysis and reliability analysis, however, have established state of the art tools which are under evolution for integrated and combined application in structures reliability analysis and design. These studies shall encompass review of the various available methods & tools for reliability analysis and integration of these techniques to Finite Element Methods to fully utilize the state of art development in the fields of structural analysis and reliability analysis.

This dissertation addresses the ultimate strength analysis of nonlinear beam-columns under axial compression, the sensitivity of the ultimate strength, structural optimization and reliability analysis using ultimate strength analysis, and Reliability-Based Design Optimization (RBDO) of the nonlinear beam-columns. The ultimate strength analysis is based on nonlinear beam theory with material and geometric nonlinearities. Nonlinear constitutive law is developed for elastic-perfectly-plastic beam cross-section consisting of base plate and T-bar stiffener. The analysis method is validated using commercial nonlinear finite element analysis. A new direct solving method is developed, which combines the original governing equations with their derivatives with respect to deformation matric and solves for the ultimate strength directly. Structural optimization and reliability analysis use a gradient-based algorithm and need accurate sensitivities of the ultimate strength to design variables. Semi-analytic sensitivity of the ultimate strength is calculated from a linear set of analytical sensitivity equations which use the Jacobian matrix of the direct solving method. The derivatives of the structural residual equations in the sensitivity equation set are calculated using complex step method. The semi-analytic sensitivity is more robust and efficient as compared to finite difference sensitivity. The design variables are the cross-sectional geometric parameters. Random variables include material properties, geometric parameters, initial deflection and nondeterministic load. Failure probabilities calculated by ultimate strength reliability analysis are validated by Monte Carlo Simulation. Double-loop RBDO minimizes structural weight with reliability index constraint. The sensitivity of reliability index with respect to design variables is calculated from the gradient of limit state function at the solution of reliability analysis. By using the ultimate strength direct solving method, semi-analytic sensitivity and gradient-based optimization algorithm, the RBDO method is found to be robust and efficient for nonlinear beam-columns. The ultimate strength direct solving method, semi-analytic sensitivity, structural optimization, reliability analysis, and RBDO method can be applied to more complicated engineering structures including stiffened panels and aerospace/ocean structures.
Ph. D.

Thesis (M. Phil.)--Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, 2003.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 113-116). Also available in electronic version. Access restricted to campus users.

Thesis (MScEng)-- Stellenbosch University, 2013.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Most of the parameters involved in the design and analysis of structures are of stochastic nature. This is, therefore, of paramount importance to be able to perform a fully stochastic analysis of structures both in component and system level to take into account the uncertainties involved in structural analysis and design. To the contrary, in practice, the (computerised) analysis of structures is based on a deterministic analysis which fails to address the randomness of design and analysis parameters. This means that an investigation on the algorithmic methodologies for a component and system reliability analysis can help pave the way towards the implementation of fully stochastic analysis of structures in a computer environment. This study is focused on algorithm development for component and system reliability analysis based on the various proposed methodologies. Truss structures were selected for this purpose due to their simplicity as well as their wide use in the industry. Nevertheless, the algorithms developed in this study can be used for other types of structures such as moment-resisting frames with some simple modi cations. For a component level reliability analysis of structures different methods such as First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) and simulation methods are proposed. However, implementation of these methods for the statistically indeterminate structures is complex due to the implicit relation between the response of the structural system and the load effect. As a result, the algorithm developed for the purpose of component reliability analysis should be based on the concepts of Stochastic Finite Element Methods (SFEM) where a proper link between the finite element analysis of the structure and the reliability analysis methodology is ensured. In this study various algorithms are developed based on the FORM method, Monte Carlo simulation, and the Response Surface Method (RSM). Using the FORM method, two methodologies are considered: one is based on the development of a finite element code where required alterations are made to the FEM code and the other is based on the usage of a commercial FEM package. Different simulation methods are also implemented: Direct Monte Carlo Simulation (DMCS), Latin Hypercube Sampling Monte Carlo (LHCSMC), and Updated Latin Hypercube Sampling Monte Carlo (ULHCSMC). Moreover, RSM is used together with simulation methods. Throughout the thesis, the effciency of these methods was investigated. A Fully Stochastic Finite Element Method (FSFEM) with alterations to the finite element code seems the fastest approach since the linking between the FEM package and reliability analysis is avoided. Simulation methods can also be effectively used for the reliability evaluation where ULHCSMC seemed to be the most efficient method followed by LHCSMC and DMCS. The response surface method is the least straight forward method for an algorithmic component reliability analysis; however, it is useful for the system reliability evaluation. For a system level reliability analysis two methods were considered: the ß-unzipping method and the branch and bound method. The ß-unzipping method is based on a level-wise system reliability evaluation where the structure is modelled at different damaged levels according to its degree of redundancy. In each level, the so-called unzipping intervals are defined for the identification of the critical elements. The branch and bound method is based on the identification of different failure paths of the structure by the expansion of the structural failure tree. The evaluation of the damaged states for both of the methods is the same. Furthermore, both of the methods lead to the development of a parallel-series model for the structural system. The only difference between the two methods is in the search approach used for the failure sequence identification. It was shown that the ß-unzipping method provides a better algorithmic approach for evaluating the system reliability compared to the branch and bound method. Nevertheless, the branch and bound method is a more robust method in the identification of structural failure sequences. One possible way to increase the efficiency of the ß-unzipping method is to define bigger unzipping intervals in each level which can be possible through a computerised analysis. For such an analysis four major modules are required: a general intact structure module, a damaged structure module, a reliability analysis module, and a system reliability module. In this thesis different computer programs were developed for both system and component reliability analysis based on the developed algorithms. The computer programs are presented in the appendices of the thesis.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Meeste van die veranderlikes betrokke by die ontwerp en analise van strukture is stogasties in hul aard. Om die onsekerhede betrokke in ontwerp en analise in ag te neem is dit dus van groot belang om 'n ten volle stogastiese analise te kan uitvoer op beide komponent asook stelsel vlak. In teenstelling hiermee is die gerekenariseerde analise van strukture in praktyk gebaseer op deterministiese analise wat nie suksesvol is om die stogastiese aard van ontwerp veranderlikes in ag te neem nie. Dit beteken dat die ondersoek na die algoritmiese metodiek vir komponent en stelsel betroubaarheid analise kan help om die weg te baan na die implementering van ten volle rekenaarmatige stogastiese analise van strukture. Di e studie se fokus is op die ontwikkeling van algoritmes vir komponent en stelsel betroubaarheid analise soos gegrond op verskeie voorgestelde metodes. Vakwerk strukture is gekies vir die doeleinde as gevolg van hulle eenvoud asook hulle wydverspreide gebruik in industrie. Die algoritmes wat in die studie ontwikkel is kan nietemin ook vir ander tipes strukture soos moment-vaste raamwerke gebruik word, gegewe eenvoudige aanpassings. Vir 'n komponent vlak betroubaarheid analise van strukture word verskeie metodes soos die "First Order Reliability Methods" (FORM) en simulasie metodes voorgestel. Die implementering van die metodes vir staties onbepaalbare strukture is ingewikkeld as gevolg van die implisiete verband tussen die gedrag van die struktuur stelsel en die las effek. As 'n gevolg, moet die algoritme wat ontwikkel word vir die doel van komponent betroubaarheid analise gebaseer word op die konsepte van stogastiese eindige element metodes ("SFEM") waar 'n duidelike verband tussen die eindige element analise van die struktuur en die betroubaarheid analise verseker is. In hierdie studie word verskeie algoritmes ontwikkel wat gebaseer is op die FORM metode, Monte Carlo simulasie, en die sogenaamde "Response Surface Method" (RSM). Vir die gebruik van die FORM metode word twee verdere metodologieë ondersoek: een gebaseer op die ontwikkeling van 'n eindige element kode waar nodige verandering aan die eindige element kode self gemaak word en die ander waar 'n kommersiële eindige element pakket gebruik word. Verskillende simulasie metodes word ook geïmplimenteer naamlik Direkte Monte Carlo Simulasie (DMCS), "Latin Hypercube Sampling Monte Carlo" (LHCSMC) en sogenaamde "Updated Latin Hypercube Sampling Monte Carlo" (ULHCSMC). Verder, word RSM tesame met die simulasie metodes gebruik. In die tesis word die doeltreffendheid van die bostaande metodes deurgaans ondersoek. 'n Ten volle stogastiese eindige element metode ("FSFEM") met verandering aan die eindige element kode blyk die vinnigste benadering te wees omdat die koppeling tussen die eindige element metode pakket en die betroubaarheid analise verhoed word. Simulasie metodes kan ook effektief aangewend word vir die betroubaarheid evaluasie waar ULHCSMC as die mees doeltre end voorgekom het, gevolg deur LHCSMC en DMCS. The RSM metode is die mees komplekse metode vir algoritmiese komponent betroubaarheid analise. Die metode is egter nuttig vir sisteem betroubaarheid analise. Vir sisteem-vlak betroubaarheid analise is twee metodes oorweeg naamlik die "ß-unzipping" metode and die "branch-and-bound" metode. Die "ß-unzipping" metode is gebaseer op 'n sisteem-vlak betroubaarheid ontleding waar die struktuur op verskillende skade vlakke gemodelleer word soos toepaslik vir die hoeveelheid addisionele las paaie. In elke vlak word die sogenaamde "unzipping" intervalle gedefinieer vir die identifikasie van die kritiese elemente. Die "branch-and-bound" metode is gebaseer op die identifikasie van verskillende faling roetes van die struktuur deur uitbreiding van die falingsboom. The ondersoek van die skade toestande vir beide metodes is dieselfde. Verder kan beide metodes lei tot die ontwikkeling van 'n parallelserie model van die strukturele stelsel. Die enigste verskil tussen die twee metodes is in die soek-benadering vir die uitkenning van falingsmodus volgorde. Dit word getoon dat die "ß-unzipping" metode 'n beter algoritmiese benadering is vir die ontleding van sisteem betroubaarheid vergeleke met die "branch-and-bound" metode. Die "branch-and- bound" metode word nietemin as 'n meer robuuste metode vir die uitkenning van die falings volgorde beskou. Een moontlike manier om die doeltre endheid van die "ß-unzipping" metode te verhoog is om groter "unzipping" intervalle te gebruik, wat moontlik is vir rekenaarmatige analise. Vir so 'n analise word vier hoof modules benodig naamlik 'n algemene heel-struktuur module, 'n beskadigde-struktuur module, 'n betroubaarheid analise module en 'n sisteem betroubaarheid analise module. In die tesis word verskillende rekenaar programme ontwikkel vir beide sisteem en komponent betroubaarheid analise. Die rekenaar programme word in die aanhangsels van die tesis aangebied.

Condition assessment and safety verification of existing bridges and decisions as to whether bridge posting is required are addressed through analysis, load testing, or a combination of methods. Bridge rating through structural analysis is by far the most common procedure for rating existing bridges. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Manual for Bridge Evaluation (MBE), First Edition permits bridge capacity ratings to be determined through allowable stress rating (ASR), load factor rating (LFR) or load and resistance factor rating (LRFR); the latter method is keyed to the AASHTO LRFD Bridge Design Specifications, which is reliability-based and has been required for the design of new bridges built with federal findings since October, 2007. A survey of current bridge rating practices in the United States has revealed that these three methods may lead to different ratings and posting limits for the same bridge, a situation that carries serious implications with regard to the safety of the public and the economic well-being of communities that may be affected by bridge postings or closures. To address this issue, a research program has been conducted with the overall objective of providing recommendations for improving the process by which the condition of existing bridge structures is assessed. This research required a coordinated program of load testing and finite element analysis of selected bridges in the State of Georgia to gain perspectives on the behavior of older bridges under various load conditions. Structural system reliability assessments of these bridges were conducted and bridge fragilities were developed for purposes of comparison with component reliability benchmarks for new bridges. A reliability-based bridge rating framework was developed, along with a series of recommended improvements to the current bridge rating methods, which facilitate the incorporation of various in situ conditions of existing bridges into the bridge rating process at both component and system levels. This framework permits bridge ratings to be conducted at three levels of increasing complexity to achieve the performance objectives, expressed in the terms of reliability, that are embedded in the LRFR option of the AASHTO Manual of Bridge Evaluation. This research was sponsored by the Georgia Department of Transportation, and has led to a set of Recommended Guidelines for Condition Assessment and Evaluation of Existing Bridges in Georgia.

This report presents the structural reliability analysis of the hull girder ultimate strength for the ship shaped FPSO Triton. The ultimate strength of the hull girder was calculated using a component approach, where the behaviour of the hull is evaluated based on the behaviour of the single structural components. Three collapse conditions were investigated; failure initiated by plate compression, failure initiated by stiffener tension and failure initiated by stiffener compression. Only vertical bending moment has been considered and the hull girder loads are divided into stillwater and wave induced components. The two loading components have been considered independent and Ferry Borges - Castenheta load combination method has been applied to obtain load combination factors for the Full Load, Partial Load (50 % loaded) and Ballast condition. The distributions of the extreme values of the vertical wave bending moments (VWBM) were calculated, based on linear strip theory and a long-term formulation. The vertical mooring forces are small and they were considered to have an insignificant influence on the bending moment response. The reliability analysis was carried out using a SORM analysis. Annual reliability indices (ß) and probabilities of failures were calculated for hogging and sagging conditions. The calculated ß values were higher than the annual reliability indices proposed in DNV Classification Notes 30.6 for serious failures in redundant structures. This indicates that the design is safe and reliable for operation in this particular location.

EDF Energy own and operate seven Advanced Gas cooled Reactor (AGR) nuclear power plants which are the only commercially operated high temperature nuclear reactors in the world. Being high temperature means that considerable numbers of components operate within the creep regime and as a result, creep-fatigue is a life limiting degradation mechanism for many reactor components. Nuclear safety is the overriding priority for the operator, EDF Energy. Therefore demonstrating the integrity of structural components is an important activity. This poses the greatest challenge for components within the reactor pressure vessel, such as boilers, insulation and support structures, because they can not be easily inspected or repaired due to accessibility. Therefore there is reliance upon theoretical structural integrity assessments to demonstrate components are safe to operate, using procedures such as the RS assessment procedure. This research reviews the requirements placed upon high temperature structural integrity assessments and the current solutions provided by the deterministic assessment procedures, using a systems engineering approach. This identified clear disparities, including: deterministic structural integrity output versus a probabilistic safety requirement; lack of communication about the extent and nature of uncertainty in deterministic assessment results; plant observations (survival, failure and inspections) cannot be reconciled with deterministic assessment results; deterministic assessments consider components in isolation and do not consider the functionality of a structural system. These disparities are of growing concern when considering the aged AGR plants, as component failures become more likely and lifetime extensions are sought. To address these disparities, a physics-of-failure reliability framework has been proposed as a solution for creep-fatigue assessments. An important aspect of this paradigm shift, from deterministic to probabilistic assessments, was in the management of uncertainty. Two classifications of uncertainty were defined to do this; aleatory uncertainty which is caused by variation within a structural system and epistemic uncertainty which arises from a lack of understanding about the structural system. These two definitions can be applied to all variables and uncertainties allowing them to be managed appropriately within the structural integrity reliability framework. Uncertainties which are involved in a structural integrity analysis, including material properties, operating conditions and geometric properties were explored, classified and quantified where possible. The use of plant data, including survival and failure data and inspection data was also considered within the reliability framework.

A general framework to design structural systems for a system-reliability goal is proposed. Component-based structural design proceeds on a member to member basis, insuring acceptable failure probabilities for every single structural member without explicitly assessing the overall system safety, whereas structural failure consequences are related to the whole system performance (the cost of a building or a bridge destroyed by an earthquake) rather than a single beam or column failure. Engineering intuition tells us that the system is safer than each individual component due to the likelihood of load redistribution and al- ternate load paths, however such conservatism cannot be guaranteed without an explicit system-level safety check. As a result, component-based structural designs can lead to both over-conservative components and a less-than-anticipated system reliability. System performance depends on component properties as well as the load-sharing network, which can possess a wide range of behaviors varying from a dense redundant system with scope for load redistribution after failure initiates, to a weakest-link type network that fails as soon as the first member exceeds its capacity. The load-sharing network is characterized by its overall system reliability and the system-reliability sensitivity, which quantifies the change in system safety due to component reliability modifications. A general algorithm is proposed to calculate modified component reliabilities using the sensitivity vector for the load-sharing network. The modifications represent an improvement on the structural properties of more critical components (more capacity, better ductility), and provide savings on less important members which do not play a significant role. The general methodology is applied to light steel-framed buildings under seismic loads. The building is modeled with non-linear spring elements representing its subsystems. The stochastic response of this model under seismic ground motions provides load-sharing, system reliability and sensitivity information, which are used to propose target diaphragm and shear wall reliability to meet a building reliability goal. Finally, diaphragm target reliability is used to propose modified component designs using stochastic simulations on geometric and materially non-linear finite-element models including every individual component.
Ph. D.

Structures subject to oscillatory stresses are vulnerable to fatigue and/or fracture failure. But some fatigue and fracture design factors are subject to considerable uncertainty. Therefore, probabilistic and statistical methods are appropriate as tools for making design decisions and reliability assessments of structural systems. System reliability can be improved by a maintenance program of periodic inspection and repair or replacement of damaged members. But there are also uncertainities introduced by the inspection process. In summary, the fatigue/fracture reliability and maintainability (FRM) process for a structural system is a "replacement/repair renewal" process complicated by a large number of random variables and small failure probabilities for a typical system. The goal of this research is to develop an efficient numerical method to estimate the reliability and performance of structural systems subject to the FRM process. Reliability methods such as first order reliability methods (FORM) and second order reliability methods (SORM) are not appropriate as tools to analyze the FRM process. As a continuation of the FRM study by Torng (1989), an equivalent member approach is introduced. A sampling simulation procedure is employed. The "equivalent member approach" considers each member (a series system) as a single member having one single stress concentration representing the "weakest" component. Elementary extreme value theory is applied to approximate the distribution of ultimate strength and fatigue strength of the member. It is demonstrated that significant savings in computer (CPU) time is achieved without sacrificing accuracy in reliability and performance estimates. Typically, the sampling scheme employed herein will result in an improvement in computer time by a factor of 1000 relative to the direct Monte Carlo method. One goal of this research is to study the relationship between the design factors of the tension-leg platform (TLP) tendon system. Effects on system reliability and maintenance performance (repair and replacement rates) are studied as a function of (a) number of joints, J, (b) number of members, M, (c) inspection frequency, (d) inspection sensitivity as defined by the POD (probability of detection) curve, (e) ultimate tensile strength, (f) repair policy, etc. The performance of an initially damaged or flawed tendon system is investigated. The reliability of a tendon system that uses pressurized tendon to detect through thickness cracks is studied as is the vulnerability of the tendon system before replacement of broken tendon.

AlGaN based nanoscale high-electron-mobility transistors (HEMTs) are the next generation of transistor technology that features the unique combination of higher power, wider bandwidth, low noise, higher efficiency, and temperature/radiation hardness than conventional AlGaAs and Si based technologies. However, as evidenced by recent stress tests, reliability of these devices (characterized by a gradual decrease in the output current/power leading to failure of the device in just tens of hours of operation) remains a major concern. Although, in these tests, physical damages were clearly visible in the device, the root cause and nature of these damages have not yet been fully assessed experimentally. Therefore, a comprehensive theoretical study of the physical mechanisms responsible for degradation of AlGaN HEMTs is essential before these devices are deployed in targeted applications. The main objective of the proposed research is to computationally investigate how degradation of state-of-the-art nanoscale AlGaN HEMTs is governed by an intricate and dynamical coupling of thermo-electromechanical processes at different length (atoms-to-transistor) and time (femtosecondto- hours) scales while operating in high voltage, large mechanical, and high temperature/radiation stresses. This work centers around a novel hypotheses as follows: High voltage applied to AlGaN HEMT causes excessive internal heat dissipation, which triggers gate metal diffusion into the semiconducting barrier layer and structural modifications (defect ii formation) leading to diminished polarization induced charge density and output current. Since the dynamical system to be studied is complex, chaotic (where the evolution rule is guided by atomicity of the underlying material), and involve coupled physical processes, an in-house multiscale simulator (QuADS 3-D) has been employed and augmented, where material parameters are obtained atomistically using firstprinciples, structural relaxation and defect formations will be modeled by integrating molecular dynamics, and the influence of atomistic processes on charge and phonon transport and current degradation will be simulated using a coupled drift-diffusionthermodynamic framework.

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Structural design standards based on the principles of structural reliability are gaining worldwide acceptance and are fast becoming the new basis of structural safety verification. The application of these principles to establish a standardised basis for structural design using partial factor limit states design procedures is done in the European Standard for the Basis of Structural Design EN 1990 from which it is adapted to the South African Basis of Design Standard for Building and Industrial Structures SANS 10160-1. The basis of design requirements stipulated in EN 1990 and SANS 10160-1 apply to all aspects of structural design: This includes reliability levels of structural performance and their differentiation and management; identification of various limit states and design situations; the specification of all the basic variables; separate treatment of actions and material-based resistance. However, application of these requirements is then primarily focused on actions whilst the provision for structural concrete is then left to the materials based design standards. This two-part thesis describes a systematic assessment of the degree to which the application of the reliability framework presented in the basis of design requirements has been achieved in the present generation of structural concrete design standards. More importantly, attempts are made to identify ways in which the process can be advanced. Special attention is drawn to issues that are specific to South African conditions and practice in structural concrete. Part One of the thesis focuses on the key elements of the reliability framework presented in EN 1990 and traces to what extent the requirements have been propelled through the design stipulations of the Eurocode Standard for Design of Concrete Structures EN 1992-1-1. The implications of the different reference level of reliability between the Eurocode default value of ß = 3.8 and that characteristic of South African practice ß = 3.0 through various issues are highlighted. The use and advantage of explicit treatment of reliability performance on reliability management related to some aspects of quality control are explored. A critical aspect is the shear prediction model providing unconservative estimates of shear resistance. Part Two of the thesis focuses on characterising the model factor of the EN 1992-1-1 shear prediction model for members requiring design shear reinforcement. This is done by a comparison to a compiled experimental database with special focus on situations with high reinforcement ratios. The significance of the modelling uncertainty in shear prediction is verified by this comparison. The use of the more conceptually rational modified compression field theory (MCFT) to improve on the quality of shear predictions is investigated and proves to yield more precise values with lower scatter hence making it a more reliable tool for predicting shear. The MCFT can then be used as reference for the reliability calibration and possible improvement for the Eurocode procedure.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Strukturele ontwerpstandaarde gebaseer op die beginsels van strukturele betroubaarheid verkry wêreldwye aanvaarding en word vinnig die nuwe basis van strukturele veiligheid bevestiging. Die toepassing van hierdie beginsels om ʼn gestandaardiseerde basis vir strukturele ontwerp is bevestig deur gebruik te maak van gedeeltelike-faktorbeperkende stadiums ontwerpprosedures in die Europese Standaard vir die Basis van Strukturele Ontwerp EN 1990 waarvandaan dit herbewerk is na die Suid-Afrikaanse Basis van Ontwerp Standaarde vir Bou en Industriële Strukture SANS 10160-1. Die basis van ontwerpvereistes bepaal in EN 1990 en SANS 10160-1 is van toepassing op alle aspekte van strukturele ontverp: Dit sluit inbetroubaarheidsvlakke van struktureele prestasie en hul diversifikasie en bestuur; identifikasie van verskeie beperkende state en ontwerpsituasies; die spesifikasie van al die basiese veranderlikes; afsonderlike behandeling van aksies en materiaal-gebaseerde weerstand. Desnieteenstaande, die toepassing van hierdie voorwaardes is dan hoofsaaklik gefokus op aksies terwyl die voorsiening van strukturele beton is dan gelaat op die materiaalgebaseerde ontwerpstandaarde. Hierdie tweeledige verhandeling beskryf ʼn stelselmatige beoordeling van die graad waartoe die toepassing van die betroubaarheidsraamwerk aangebied word in die basis van ontwerpvereistes bereik in die huidige generasie van strukturele beton-ontwerp standaarde is. Meer belangrik, pogings is aangewend om die maniere hoe die proses bevorder kan word te identifiseer. Spesiale aandag word gevestig op kwessies wat spesifiek op Suid-Afrikaanse toestande en praktyke in strukturele beton toepaslik is. Deel Een van die verhandeling fokus op die sleutel-dele van die betroubaarheidsraamwerk aangebied in EN 1990 en skets die mate waartoe die vereistes aangespoor word deur die ontwerp voorskrifte van die Eurocode Standard for the Design of Concrete Structures EN 1992-1-1. Die implikasie van die verskillende verwysingsvlakke van betroubaarheid tussen die Eurocode standaardwaarde van ß = 3.8 en die eienskap van Suid-Afrikaanse praktyk ß = 3.0 deur verskillende kwessies word uitgelig. Die gebruik en voordeel van spesifieke behandeling van betroubaarheidsuitvoering op betroubaarheidsbestuur verwantskap met sekere aspekte van kwaliteit kontrole word ondersoek. ʼn Kritiese aspek is die model vir die voorspelling van skuif-weerstand wat die onkonserwatiewe beramings vir skuif-weerstand gee. Deel Twee van die verhandeling fokus op karakterisering die modelfaktor van die EN 1992- 1-1 skuif-weerstand voorspellings-model. Dit word gedoen deur ʼn vergelyking na ʼn saamgestelde eksperimentele databasis met spesifieke fokus op situasies met hoe herbevestigingsvergelykings. Die oorheersing van die modellering- onsekerheid in skuifweerstand voorspelling is bevestig deur hierdie vergelyking. Die gebruik van ʼn meer konseptuele rasionele gemodifiseerde druk-veld teorie (bekend as MCFT) om die kwaliteit van skuif voorspelling te verbeter is ondersoek en verskaf ‘n meer presiese waarde met laer verspreiding wat lei tot ʼn meer betroubaree instrument om skuif mee te voorspel. Die MCFT word dan gebruik as verwysing vir die betroubaarheid-samestelling en moontlike verbetering van die Eurocode prosedures.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2015.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Structural design standards based on the principles of structural reliability are gaining worldwide acceptance and are fast becoming the new basis for structural safety verification. The application of these principles to establish a standardised basis for structural design using partial factor limit states design procedures is done in the European Standard for the Basis of Structural Design EN 1990 from which it is adapted to the South African Standard Basis of Design for Building and Industrial Structures SANS 10160-1. South Africa (SA) is on the advent of adopting the European Concrete Design Standard EN 1992-1-1 (EC2) as the equivalent standard for local use. This investigation seeks to provide a transparent quantitative reliability basis for the SA’s adoption of EC2, as well as provide for its subsequent implementation under local conditions and practice. The investigation kicks-off with a critical review of the reliability framework for structural resistance. The review establishes the relationships between the key elements of the framework, shedding light on issues SA needs to consider as it adopts EC2. Important issues for SA to consider include (1) target levels of structural performance ( -values), (2) partial factors, (3) model uncertainties, and (4) quality control. Design for shear resistance was investigated in greater detail by comparison of EC2’s Variable Strut Inclination Method (VSIM) for stirrup design against alternative approaches, namely, (1) South Africa’s currently operational SANS 10100-1 procedure, and (2) the fib Model Code 2010 first Level of Approximation (LoA I) and fib LoA III, which are based on the Modified Compression Field Theory (MCFT). Unbiased capacity predictions from the MCFT-based sectional analysis Program Response-2000 (R2k) served as LoA IV best-estimate results during this assessment. Results of this investigation showed that EC2 offers higher capacity predictions in excess of 1 MPa of stirrup reinforcement, with significantly higher predictions in the range of 1 to 2 MPa. A reliability performance assessment was therefore commissioned to assess safety regimes in terms of achieved reliability across a parametric range of the amount of stirrup reinforcement (from 0.45 to 2.0 MPa). The First Order Reliability Method (FORM) was implemented as part of the reliability performance assessment of the EC2’s VSIM design procedure. The model uncertainty for shear resistance (stirrup failures) was characterised according to a database of published stirrupreinforced concrete beam shear tests. Three cases of the Model Factor for shear resistance were derived from the experimental database for alternative shear resistance prediction models; two of which formed part of basic investigations conducted using the conventionally formulated performance function, and the other was integrated as part of an independent validation procedure using R2k predictions to obtain the reliability model. Results obtained from the basic reliability model ( -values) generally indicated lower levels of reliability with an increase in stirrup reinforcement and concrete strength, compared to those estimated from the R2k-based reliability model ( -values). The disparity between and -values revealed that systematic effects affect each model’s ability to predict the expected value of true shear resistance . There is reasonable evidence to suggest that the predictions of can be improved by accounting for each model’s peculiar sensitivity to concrete strength, consequently providing more representative estimates of . However, in the interim, and -values, respectively, represent reasonable lower and upper bound estimates of the performance of EC2’s VSIM design procedure.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die beginsels van struktuur betroubaarheid word wêreldwyd aanvaar as basis vir struktuur ontwerp standaarde en die versekering van voldoende struktuur veiligheid. Hierdie beginsels word in die Europese Standaard Basis of Structural Design EN 1990 toegepas om gestandaardiseerde partiële faktor gebaseerde limietstaat ontwerp prosedures daar te stel, van waar dit aangepas is vir die Suid-Afrikaanse Standaard Basis of Design for Building and Industrial Structures SANS 10160-1. Suid-Afrika (SA) staan op die punt om die Europese beton ontwerp standaard EN 1992-1-1 (EC2) aan te neem as die ekwivalente standaard vir plaaslike gebruik. Hierdie ondersoek het as doel om ‘n deursigtige kwantitatiewe betroubaarheidsbasis daar te stel vir die aanneming van EC2 as SA standaard en om voorsiening te maak vir die implementering daarvan onder plaaslike toestande en –praktyk. Die ondersoek begin met ‘n kritiese oorsig van die betroubaarheidsraamwerk vir strukturele weerstand. Die oorsig stel die verhouding vas tussen sleutel elemente van die raamwerk en werp lig op aspekte wat SA moet oorweeg in die aanneming van EC2. Belangrike aspekte vir oorweging sluit (1) teiken betroubaarheidsvlakke vir struktuur gedrag ( -waardes), (2) partiele faktore, (3) model onsekerhede en (4) kwaliteitsbeheer in. Skuif weerstandsontwerp is in groter detail ondersoek deur die EC2 se Veranderbare Stut Hoek Metode (VSHM) vir skuifbeuel ontwerp te vergelyk met alternatiewe benaderings, naamlik, (1) Suid Afrika se huidig operasionele SANS 10100-1 prosedure, (2) fib Model Code 2010 se sogenaamde eerste Vlak van Benadering (VvB I) en fib VvB III, gebaseer op die Aangepaste Drukveld Teorie (ADT). Onbevooroordeelde kapasiteit voorspellings van die ADT-gebaseerde snit analise program “Response-2000 (R2k)” is in die evaluering gebruik as VvB IV bes benaderde resultate. Die ondersoek toon dat EC2 hoër kapasiteit voorspel vir skuifbeuel bewapening tot 1 MPa en beduidend hoër kapasiteite voorspel vir skuifbeuel bewapening tussen 1 en 2 MPa. ‘n Betroubaarheidsprestasie studie is vervolgens geloots om die veiligheid in terme van behaalde betroubaarheid te bepaal oor ‘n parametriese bereik van 0.45 tot 2.0 MPa skuifbeuel bewapening. Die Eerste Orde Betroubaarheids Metode (EOBM) is implementeer as deel van die betroubaarheidsprestasie beoordeling van die EC2 VSHM ontwerp prosedure. ‘n Databasis van gepubliseerde skuifbeuel-bewapende betonbalk skuiftoetse is gebruik om die model onsekerheid vir die verskillende skuifweerstandsmodelle statisties te beskryf. Drie Model Faktore is uit die eksperimentele databasis afgelei, twee waarvan gebruik is in basiese ondersoeke met die konvensioneel geformuleerde prestasie funksie en die derde as deel van ‘n onafhanklike bevestigingsprosedure gebaseer op R2k voorspellings. Resultate wat verkry is uit die basiese betroubaarheidsmodel ( -waardes) was laer (meer konserwatief), en het ook vinniger afgeneem met ‘n toename in skuifbeuel bewapening as die waardes wat uit die R2k-gebaseerde betroubaarheidsmodel ( -waardes) verkry is. Die verskil tussen β en β -waardes toon dat sistematiese effekte die vermoë van elk van die modelle beïnvloed om die verwagte waarde van die werklike skuifweerstand V te voorspel. Daar is redelike bewyse om aan te voer dat die voorspellings van V verbeter sal kan word deur elke model se unieke sensitiwiteit teenoor betonsterkte in ag te neem, om sodoende meer verteenwoordigende β waardes te verkry. Intussen verteenwoodig die β en β -waardes onderskeidelik redelike onder- en bogrens skattings vir die prestasie van EC2 se VSHM ontwerp prosedure.

A review of the developments within the field of structural reliability theory shows that some gaps still exist in the reliability prediction process and hence there is an urgent desire for improvements such that the estimated structural reliability will be capable of expressing a physical property of the given structure. The current reliability prediction process involves the continuous estimation and use of reliability index as a way of estimating the safety of any given structure. The reliability index β depends on the Probability Density Function (PDF) distribution for the wave force and the corresponding PDF of resistance from respective structural members of the given structure. The PDF for the applied wave force will depend on the PDF of water depth, wave angular velocity and wave direction hence the reliability index as currently practiced is a statistical way of managing uncertainties based on a general probabilistic model. This research on Smart Offshore Structure for Reliability Prediction has proposed the design of a measurement based reliability prediction process as a way of closing the gap on structural reliability prediction process. Structural deflection and damping are some of the measurable properties of an offshore structure and this study aims at suggesting the use of these measurable properties for improvements in structural reliability prediction process. A design case study has shown that a typical offshore structure can deflect to a range of only a few fractions of a millimetre. This implies that if we have a way of monitoring this level of deflection, we could use the results from such measurement for the detection of a structural member failure. This advocated concept is based on the hypothesis that if the original dynamic characteristics of a structure is known, that measurement based modified dynamic properties can be used to determine the onset of failure or failure propagation of the given structure. This technology could reveal the location and magnitude of internal cracks or corrosion effects on any given structure which currently is outside the current probability based approach. A simple economic analysis shows that the recommended process shows a positive net present value and that some $74mln is the Value of Information for any life extension technology that could reveal the possibility of extending the life of a given 10,000bopd production platform from 2025 to 2028.