Journal articles on the topic 'States, Small Econometric models'
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1
Carruthers, Bruce G., Timothy W. Guinnane, and Yoonseok Lee. "Bringing “Honest Capital” to Poor Borrowers: The Passage of the U.S. Uniform Small Loan Law, 1907–1930." Journal of Interdisciplinary History 42, no. 3 (November 2011): 393–418. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/jinh_a_00256.
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The Uniform Small Loan Law (usll)—the primary tool of the Russell Sage Foundation (rsf) intended to improve credit conditions for poor people in the United States during first decades of the twentieth century—created a new class of lenders who could legally make small loans at interest rates exceeding those allowed for banks. By the 1930s, about two-thirds of the states had passed the usll. Econometric models show that urbanization, state-level economic characteristics, and the nature of a state's banking system all affected the chance of passage. That party-political affiliations had no effect is consistent with the usll's “progressive” character. The passage of the usll in one state, however, made passage less likely in neighboring or similar states. The evidence suggests that the rsf only imperfectly understood the political economy of the usll, and that a different overall approach might have produced a result closer to its real aims.
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HAIM, DAVID, RALPH J. ALIG, ANDREW J. PLANTINGA, and BRENT SOHNGEN. "CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE LAND USE IN THE UNITED STATES: AN ECONOMIC APPROACH." Climate Change Economics 02, no. 01 (February 2011): 27–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010007811000218.
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An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and projections from integrated assessment models of agricultural prices and agricultural and forestry yields. For both scenarios, we project large increases in urban land by the middle of the century, while the largest declines are in cropland area. Significant differences among regions in the projected patterns of land-use change are evident, including an expansion of forests in the Mountain and Plains regions with declines elsewhere. Comparisons to projections with no climate change effects on prices and yields reveal relatively small differences. Thus, our findings suggest that future land-use patterns in the U.S. will be shaped largely by urbanization, with climate change having a relatively small influence.
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Andrei, Jean Vasile, Luminita Chivu, Ileana Georgiana Gheorghe, Aleksandar Grubor, Teodor Sedlarski, Violeta Sima, Jonel Subić, and Mile Vasic. "Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises, Business Demography and European Socio-Economic Model: Does the Paradigm Really Converge?" Journal of Risk and Financial Management 14, no. 2 (February 4, 2021): 64. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14020064.
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Although the European business environment induces important premises and assures conditions in determining economic growth and social well-being, the determinant and existent connections between the evolution of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), business demography characteristics and the European socio-economic model have been scarcely studied in recent years. The dimensions of the European socio-economic model design a very specific framework in developing business demography and assuring a favorable environment for future SME development. The main aim of the manuscript is to investigate the evolution of the European SMEs sector and the perspective of business demography evolution to converge with exigencies of the European socio-economic model. In order to argue the research objective, eight specific and representative business demography variables were employed, from 12 European Union member states (EU-MS), during 2009–2017. Further, the SMEs’ performances, determined by changing the economic functional paradigm, were assessed. For proving this, an econometric model was designed considering labor productivity as an endogenous variable. Our preliminary analysis shows considerable differences in business demography indicators and SMEs development among all five socio-economic sub-models of the main European socio-economic model, proving a tight connection between European socio-economic models and SMEs’ performance and arguing the necessity of a paradigm convergence. Within some sub-models, there is clear evidence of clustering and convergence in terms of business demography and SMEs future development.
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Keating, Michael, and Malcolm Harvey. "The Political Economy of Small European States: And Lessons for Scotland." National Institute Economic Review 227 (February 2014): R54—R66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002795011422700107.
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An independent Scotland would be a small European state. Small states may be at a disadvantage in world markets but can also adapt successfully. There are different modes of adaptation, notably the market-liberal mode and the social investment state. Either mode is dependent on internal institutions, social relationships and modes of policymaking. It is not possible to pick and choose items of different models since they have an internal coherence. The Scottish White Paper on independence supports the social investment state. Scotland has some, but not all, of the prerequisites for this so that independence would require internal adaptation.
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Safaynikou, Hamid, Mohammad Taher Ahmadi Shadmehri, Ahmad Sabahi, and Mohammad Javad Razmi. "Modeling the Effective Factors on Bank Loans Default Rate UsingDelphi, SEM and Tobit Techniques (Evidence from Iran)." Modern Applied Science 11, no. 4 (January 24, 2017): 13. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/mas.v11n4p13.
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Banks entering a developing market face a lot of uncertainty about the risks involved in lending. This paper models the effective factors on default rate (DR) loans to small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) in Iran based on the case study of branches of Melli Bank in Khorasan Razavi province. For this purpose a set of data about loans made to 300 SMEs between years 2004 to 2015 and Delphi, SEM and Tobit models were applied. Results of Delphi technique indicated that 48 factors affect the DR. The structural equation model (SEM) estimations showed that between 10 latent variables which describe the DR, the “loans properties” latent variable have the most effect. Also, findings of Tobit econometric model stated that between 48 variables which affect the DR, “loan volume” variable has the most effect. These and other factors emphasize the need for SMEs credit scoring in developing countries.
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Ramirez, Octavio A., Samarendu Mohanty, Carlos E. Carpio, and Megan Denning. "Issues and Strategies for Aggregate Supply Response Estimation for Policy Analyses." Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 36, no. 2 (August 2004): 351–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s107407080002664x.
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We demonstrate the use of the small-sample econometrics principles and strategies to come up with reliable yield and acreage models for policy analyses. We focus on demonstrating the importance of proper representation of systematic and random components of the model for improving forecasting precision along with more reliable confidence intervals for the forecasts. A probability distribution function modeling approach, which has been shown to provide more reliable confidence intervals for the dependent variable forecasts than the standard models that assume error term normality, is used to estimate cotton supply response in the Southeastern United States.
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Kuz'min, D. "Risk Factors in Equilibrium Models of Open Economies." World Economy and International Relations, no. 9 (2010): 23–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2010-9-23-28.
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World liquidity crisis, which started in the USA in 2007, is reputed to be the first full-fledged global financial crisis. The liquidity crisis became global exactly due to the influence of large economies' national financial markets on many small ones. The analysis of the crisis expansion and development in these states (the USA, China, Iceland, Mexico, CEE countries) demonstrated that not only working accounts and reserves, but also foreign and internal borrowings, and therefore, household consumption, investments and government consumption proved to be affected by cyclic processes.
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Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh, Peter Josef Stauvermann, Arvind Patel, Selvin Prasad, and Nikeel N. Kumar. "Profitability Determinants of the Insurance Sector in Small Pacific Island States: A Study of Fiji’s Insurance Companies." Engineering Economics 33, no. 3 (June 30, 2022): 302–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.33.3.19583.
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We examine the determinants of profitability of insurance companies in Fiji as a reference country. In Fiji, insurance companies and the services have grown over the years. The study uses a financial evaluation approach. Profitability is measured by the return on assets and the return on equity. Using the two measures and the data published in the key disclosure statements as a mandatory requirement by the Reserve Bank of Fiji, we develop regression models. The fixed-effects regression model and a balanced panel are considered for the analysis. The sample comprises eight insurance companies’ financial data over the period 2010-2015. First, a base model is estimated, followed by additional models which include interaction effects as part of the sensitivity analysis and further insights. The general outcome of the estimation is that premium income, underwriting expenses, administrative expenses, and volume of capital are positively associated with profitability, whereas leverage measured by total liability over equity, and contingent liability are negatively associated with profitability. Inclusion of interaction effects provides results consistent with the base model. The study is a first attempt to analyse Fiji’s insurance sectors and provides useful information in terms of financial management of the sector. The findings can assist the insurance sector and the policy makers to formulate strategies for revenue and cost management.
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Gallant, A. Ronald, Han Hong, and Ahmed Khwaja. "A Bayesian approach to estimation of dynamic models with small and large number of heterogeneous players and latent serially correlated states." Journal of Econometrics 203, no. 1 (March 2018): 19–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.04.004.
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Faraglia, Elisa, Albert Marcet, Rigas Oikonomou, and Andrew Scott. "Government Debt Management: The Long and the Short of It." Review of Economic Studies 86, no. 6 (October 17, 2018): 2554–604. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy061.
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Abstract Standard optimal Debt Management (DM) models prescribe a dominant role for long bonds and advocate against issuing short bonds. They require very large positions in order to complete markets and assume each period that governments repurchase all outstanding bonds and reissue (r/r) new ones. These features of DM are inconsistent with U.S. data. We introduce incomplete markets via small transaction costs which serves to make optimal DM more closely resemble the data : r/r are negligible, short bond issuance substantial and persistent and short and long bonds positively co-vary. Intuitively, long bonds help smooth taxes over states and short bonds over time. Solving incomplete market models with multiple assets is challenging so a further contribution of this article is introducing a novel computational method to find global solutions.
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Ngai, L. Rachel, and Silvana Tenreyro. "Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market." American Economic Review 104, no. 12 (December 1, 2014): 3991–4026. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.12.3991.
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Every year housing markets in the United Kingdom and the United States experience systematic above-trend increases in prices and transactions during the spring and summer (“hot season”) and below-trend falls during the autumn and winter (“cold season”). House price seasonality poses a challenge to existing housing models. We propose a search-and-matching model with thick-market effects. In thick markets, the quality of matches increases, rising buyers' willingness to pay and sellers' desire to transact. A small, deterministic driver of seasonality can be amplified and revealed as deterministic seasonality in transactions and prices, quantitatively mimicking seasonal fluctuations in UK and US markets. (JEL C78, R21, R31)
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Estrin, Saul. "Towards a framework to understand the relative performance of state-owned firms." Ekonomski anali 65, no. 225 (2020): 11–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/eka2025011e.
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This paper considers the factors influencing the comparative performance of state-owned and privately-owned enterprises (SOE/POE). The economics literature has argued that firm performance is influenced by governance arrangements, leading to expectations of inferior performance from SOEs. Meanwhile, a political economy literature classifies countries according to the model of state engagement, which also has implications for SOE performance. We combine these two frameworks to provide a taxonomy. The first framework relating to governance concerns the relationship between owners and managers, the relationship between large and small owners, and the functioning of the managerial labour market. The second framework considers three types of model of state engagement: the Welfare State, the Developmental State, and the Predatory State. Each of the six resulting taxonomies yields distinct outcomes in terms of SOE versus POE performance. In all models, SOEs perform better in a better governance environment than in a worse governance environment, and this ranking is the same in Welfare States and Predatory States. However, in Developmental States with strong governance, SOEs may outperform POEs if they can benefit from superior state resources.
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Herzer, Dierk. "Semi-endogenous Versus Schumpeterian Growth Models: A Critical Review of the Literature and New Evidence." Review of Economics 73, no. 1 (April 1, 2022): 1–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/roe-2021-0023.
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Abstract Several studies have tested semi-endogenous versus Schumpeterian growth models using different methodological approaches. This paper critically reviews these studies including their approaches and provides new evidence on this issue, by analyzing both time-series data from the United States and panel data from 19 OECD countries over the period 1980–2014. The review finds much support for Schumpeterian growth theory, but shows that all studies reviewed have several limitations. These limitations include conceptual problems associated with the use of the number/stock of patents as a measure of the flow/stock of knowledge, the possibility of spurious regressions due to non-stationary data, potential mismeasurement of R&D inputs due to possible interpolation and deflation errors, misspecification problems that can arise in difference models when variables are cointegrated, and potential spurious rejections of the unit root hypothesis for R&D intensity when the lag length in unit root tests is too small. The present study avoids these limitations and finds strong evidence in favor of semi-endogenous growth.
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Kehoe, Patrick J., Virgiliu Midrigan, and Elena Pastorino. "Evolution of Modern Business Cycle Models: Accounting for the Great Recession." Journal of Economic Perspectives 32, no. 3 (August 1, 2018): 141–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.3.141.
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Modern business cycle theory focuses on the study of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models that generate aggregate fluctuations similar to those experienced by actual economies. We discuss how these modern business cycle models have evolved across three generations, from their roots in the early real business cycle models of the late 1970s through the turmoil of the Great Recession four decades later. The first generation models were real (that is, without a monetary sector) business cycle models that primarily explored whether a small number of shocks, often one or two, could generate fluctuations similar to those observed in aggregate variables such as output, consumption, investment, and hours. These basic models disciplined their key parameters with micro evidence and were remarkably successful in matching these aggregate variables. A second generation of these models incorporated frictions such as sticky prices and wages; these models were primarily developed to be used in central banks for short-term forecasting purposes and for performing counterfactual policy experiments. A third generation of business cycle models incorporate the rich heterogeneity of patterns from the micro data. A defining characteristic of these models is not the heterogeneity among model agents they accommodate nor the micro-level evidence they rely on (although both are common), but rather the insistence that any new parameters or feature included be explicitly disciplined by direct evidence. We show how two versions of this latest generation of modern business cycle models, which are real business cycle models with frictions in labor and financial markets, can account, respectively, for the aggregate and the cross-regional fluctuations observed in the United States during the Great Recession.
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Miao, Jianjun, Jieran Wu, and Eric R. Young. "Macro‐financial volatility under dispersed information." Theoretical Economics 16, no. 1 (2021): 275–315. http://dx.doi.org/10.3982/te3872.
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We provide a production‐based asset pricing model with dispersed information and small deviations from full rational expectations. In the model, aggregate output and equity prices depend on the higher‐order beliefs about aggregate demand and individual stochastic discount factors. We prove that equity price volatility becomes arbitrarily large as the volatility of idiosyncratic shocks diverges to infinity due to the interaction of signal extraction with idiosyncratic trading decisions, while aggregate output volatility falls. We propose a two‐step spectral factorization method that permits closed‐form solutions in the frequency domain applicable to a wide range of models with more hidden states than signals. Our model can quantitatively match output and equity volatilities observed in U.S. data.
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Andrijauskiene, Meda, Daiva Dumciuviene, and Alina Stundziene. "EU framework programmes: positive and negative effects on member states' innovation performance." Equilibrium 16, no. 3 (September 30, 2021): 471–502. http://dx.doi.org/10.24136/eq.2021.017.
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Research background: Seeking to ensure competitiveness in the global market, the EU is constantly improving its innovation policy. Compared to other EU initiatives, the Framework Programs for Research and Innovation (FPs) act as the main instrument with the longest history and the largest budget to boost member states' innovation performance. Despite the initial presumptions that these financial inflows should bring positive and constructive effects, the results significantly diverge across the countries with highly uneven and incoherent progress. Therefore, complex and reliable tools must be adopted to evaluate the long-term influence of EU investment and the reasons which distort the innovation performance in separate member states.
Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to evaluate the influence of EU investment on its member states? innovation performance by using a redeveloped national innovative capacity framework and including technological, non-technological and commercial innovative output.
Methods: Panel unit root tests were used to assess the time series stationarity. Autoregressive distributed lag models helped in calculating the long-term influence of EU investment on member states? innovation performance. Finally, by employing dummies, it was analysed how this influence varied over time and across different countries.
Findings & value added: The findings provide evidence that EU investment exerts positive long-term influence on the technological innovative output proxied as total, business and higher education institutions? patent applications, as well as product and process innovations. The effects were also positive on trademarks and marketing, and organisational innovations. However, small but negative influence was found in the case of patent applications by the government sector and the exports of hi-tech products and knowledge-intensive services. These insights may serve in the designing process of the specific instruments and the future innovation policies, which would bring the maximum benefit for the society and economy.
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Andrijauskiene, Meda, Daiva Dumciuviene, and Alina Stundziene. "EU framework programmes: positive and negative effects on member states' innovation performance." Equilibrium 16, no. 3 (September 30, 2021): 471–502. http://dx.doi.org/10.24136/eq.2021.017.
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Research background: Seeking to ensure competitiveness in the global market, the EU is constantly improving its innovation policy. Compared to other EU initiatives, the Framework Programs for Research and Innovation (FPs) act as the main instrument with the longest history and the largest budget to boost member states' innovation performance. Despite the initial presumptions that these financial inflows should bring positive and constructive effects, the results significantly diverge across the countries with highly uneven and incoherent progress. Therefore, complex and reliable tools must be adopted to evaluate the long-term influence of EU investment and the reasons which distort the innovation performance in separate member states.
Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to evaluate the influence of EU investment on its member states? innovation performance by using a redeveloped national innovative capacity framework and including technological, non-technological and commercial innovative output.
Methods: Panel unit root tests were used to assess the time series stationarity. Autoregressive distributed lag models helped in calculating the long-term influence of EU investment on member states? innovation performance. Finally, by employing dummies, it was analysed how this influence varied over time and across different countries.
Findings & value added: The findings provide evidence that EU investment exerts positive long-term influence on the technological innovative output proxied as total, business and higher education institutions? patent applications, as well as product and process innovations. The effects were also positive on trademarks and marketing, and organisational innovations. However, small but negative influence was found in the case of patent applications by the government sector and the exports of hi-tech products and knowledge-intensive services. These insights may serve in the designing process of the specific instruments and the future innovation policies, which would bring the maximum benefit for the society and economy.
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SHKUROPAT, A. V., and V. M. STEPANOV. "METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES FOR INCLUSION OF FACTORS OF A "GREEN ECONOMY" INTO MEDIUM TERM FORECASTING MODELS FOR REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT." Economic innovations 21, no. 4(73) (December 20, 2019): 199–210. http://dx.doi.org/10.31520/ei.2019.21.4(73).199-210.
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Topicality. This is based on the importance of coordinating national and regional socio-economic policy with a recognition of the need for “green” growth and an assessment of government policy measures based on the application of multi-regional modeling methodology to analyze the effects of public policy in a regional context, and on medium-term forecasting of a country's sustainable socio-economic development.Aim and tasks. The aim of the study is to improve the scientific validity of methodology for medium-term forecasting of the main parameters of a country's socio-economic development in terms of individual regions by aligning the objectives and priorities of public policy. The objective is to develop, based on a review of international literature, methodological approaches for obtaining coherent medium-term forecast estimates of major groups of territorial economic, social and environmental indicators, based on modern methodologies for measuring the targeted effects of improving living standards, “green” growth, and overall competitiveness of the national economy in its spatial dimension.
Research results. The results of the research are based on a review of international literature and the justification for methodology to apply modern multi-regional models for the assessment of the effects of interconnected economic, social and environmental policies in the analysis of interactions between national and regional factors of sustainable economic growth, regional disparities, and strengthening of national competitiveness.
Conclusion. Modern multi-regional models for medium-term forecasting have passed several stages of development, and have incorporated into them theories of the regional economy and the mathematical tools for socio-economic systems modeling. The most effective current policy application is in the practice of recent EU regional policy. Methodology for application of complex multi-regional models has to be flexible, with the application of complementary modeling tools, and providing for further development of model modules to describe the mutual interaction of national and regional factors of sustainable economic growth, including indicators for “green” investment. A number of specific modeling tools (special engineering simulation models, GIS-based models) are usedto assess environmental parameters of spatial development. Our research proposes to incorporate the main indicators of “green” growth into national and regional blocks of multi-regional models, starting with the simplest options such as small econometric models of partial equilibrium, into which - based on a specially conducted analysis - the most significant factors of sustainable economic growth and exogenous parameters of public policy are included. A special place is given to testing the effectiveness of “green” economy measures.
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Belke, Ansgar, and Christian Dreger. "Did Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound Affect Lending of Commercial Banks? Evidence for the Euro Area." Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 239, no. 5-6 (September 25, 2019): 841–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2018-0098.
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Abstract The paper examines the bank lending activities of banks in a low interest rate environment. External financing of small- and medium-sized enterprises in the euro area primarily takes place via bank loans and not through capital markets. Based on the Bankscope database, bank balance sheet data is utilized. Control variables are included, such as for the system of banking regulation. The panel estimation includes 706 banks from 15 Euro area member states and is conducted for the period 2000 to 2015. All models show a significant positive impact of lower interest rates on net lending. In particular, the results do not indicate that credit is restricted if interest rates move towards the zero-lower bound.
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Roman, Angela, and Valentina Diana Rusu. "Digital Technologies and the Performance of Small and Medium Enterprises." Studies in Business and Economics 17, no. 3 (December 1, 2022): 190–203. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/sbe-2022-0055.
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Abstract The profound negative effects of the current pandemic crisis on firms, especially small and medium-sized ones, have forced them to rethink their business models. In order to survive and compete, many businesses have focused on adopting and using digital technologies. Several studies have shown that digital technologies could facilitate business continuity and increase their resilience to shocks. Starting from the fact that SMEs are an important source of innovation and the predominant form of business organization, the European Commission has repeatedly emphasized the importance of digital business transformation and the need to support the digitalisation of SMEs. Our study aims to analyse the degree of digitalisation of SMEs in EU countries and the obstacles they face in digitizing their business. In addition, we aim to examine the extent to which the use of various forms of digital technology could stimulate the growth of SME performance. The analysis covers the 27 EU member states and is mainly based on data provided by the European Commission and the OECD, as well as information provided by European Investment Bank surveys. Our paper complements the literature focused on the digitization of SMEs, especially by highlighting the gaps between EU countries in terms of digitization of the SME sector, but also by empirically examining the impact of digital technologies on the performance of SMEs in EU countries. Through its content, our study emphasizes the crucial importance of digitizing SMEs so that these companies are drivers of economic growth and development of countries. The results of our research may be of interest to both researchers concerned with business digitalisation and decision-makers at various levels, who should prioritize the identification of appropriate measures to stimulate digital innovation and investment in information and communication technology infrastructure.
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Patra, Soma. "ENERGY IN A MODEL OF FIRM ENTRY." Macroeconomic Dynamics 24, no. 2 (August 1, 2018): 231–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100518000159.
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Nine out of the last ten recessions in the United States have been preceded by an increase in the price of oil as noted by Hamilton [Palgrave Dictionary of Economics]. Given the small share of energy in gross domestic product this phenomenon is difficult to explain using standard models. In this paper, I show that firm entry can be an important transmission and amplifying channel for energy price shocks. The results from the baseline dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model predict a drop in output that is two times the impact in a model without entry. The model also predicts an increase in energy prices would lead to a decline in real wages, investment, consumption, and return on investment. Additionally, using US firm level data, I demonstrate that a rise in energy prices has a negative impact on firm entry as predicted by the DSGE model. This lends further support toward endogenizing firm entry when analyzing the effects of energy price shocks.
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Bidabad, Bijan. "A Small Macro-Econometric Model." American Finance & Banking Review 4, no. 1 (June 4, 2019): 22–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.46281/amfbr.v4i1.287.
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Different sizes of macro-econometric models are used for different policy purposes. In this paper, we introduce a small macro-econometric model that includes macro-aggregates variables that can be solved dynamically and be used as a sample model to be estimated for other countries.
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Kravtsova, Margarita V. "The Public Procurement and the Quality of Services: The Case of Moscow Hospitals." Economics of Contemporary Russia, no. 4 (December 31, 2020): 118–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.33293/1609-1442-2020-4(91)-118-131.
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The work is devoted to the search for answers to the question: “Are there any differences in the public procurement of customers who provide services of different quality?”. The article identifies the stages of the hospital procurement process in the contract system and highlights the main customer strategies used in the auction. The results of an independent quality assessment are examined and comparative hospital characteristics with low and high quality rating are conducted. The hospital needs according to the types of purchases and their annual volumes of contracts are analyzed. The advantages of competitive procedures are determined and the key factors affecting the level of competition with possible risks of unreliable execution of contracts are identified. The empirical study is based on the database which includes 5390 contracts of 2 hospitals in Moscow for years of 2011–2017. Using the methods of econometric analysis, in particular, the method of least squares and the difference in the average, the hypothesis is tested the high competition has a positive effect on the quality of medical services. The constructed regression models show that the customer providing high quality services has low competition and small rebates at the auction. At the same time there are more contract terms, delays in the supply of goods and services as compared with the customer providing low quality services. Thus it was found that the underestimation of competition at the auction indicates the desire of the hospital to guarantee a higher quality of medical services to patients while as aggressive bids of participants lead to the supply of poor purchases. The results of the study may be useful for the competent authorities in the development of legal acts for the participants of the contract system in the field of health procurement.
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Wendling, Zachary A., David C. Warren, Barry M. Rubin, Sanya Carley, and Kenneth R. Richards. "A Scalable Energy–Economy Model for State-Level Policy Analysis Applied to a Demand-Side Management Program." Economic Development Quarterly 34, no. 4 (July 10, 2020): 372–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0891242420937792.
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Over the past two decades, states and cities implemented low-carbon energy development, renewable portfolio standards, demand-side management (DSM), renewable energy production incentives, green building requirements, regional carbon trading agreements, and other energy-based economic development initiatives. Yet the dearth of state-level and substate-level models makes it difficult to predict the effects of such actions. This article addresses this shortcoming by presenting the performance results of the new Indiana Scalable Economy and Energy Model (IN-SEEM)—a model utilizing a dynamic, simultaneous equations framework—and demonstrates the model’s capabilities with an analysis of electricity price increases from a DSM program in the state of Indiana. Overall performance of the model is strong, with high adjusted R2 values and low mean absolute percent errors for most of 30 endogenous variables. A DSM price increase analysis finds variation in impact across the state’s 10 major economic sectors and small changes in energy consumption.
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Bruneckiene, Jurgita, and Dovile Paltanaviciene. "Measurement of Export Competitiveness of the Baltic States by Composite Index." Engineering Economics 23, no. 1 (February 15, 2012): 50–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.23.1.1218.
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Theoretical and practical aspects of the measurement of export competitiveness are analyzed in this article. The relevance and timeliness of analysis of the concept of export competitiveness proves the fact that competition is a very important precondition, which affects the effectiveness of development of national economy under the conditions of globalization. The research of the concept of export competitiveness and the ways of improving competitiveness of national economy are especially relevant for the countries in the period of recovering from the outcomes of economic crisis of 2008 -2009. In the European Union, the worst influence of economics recession was brought on Baltic States – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia economies. One of the most important factors, which could stimulate the development of national economy, is export. Its development is especially essential for small countries, which are too small to consume all the production made by these countries. Higher export competitiveness could help the country to overcome after-effects of economic recession and stimulate the development of the total national economy. Export is often associated with competitiveness of the country at the international level. While the academic understanding of international competitiveness of the country is still forming, the factors of international competitiveness are still being identified in scientific literature, export competitiveness can be measured in different ways: by analyzing one or several factors of the country's export, creating composite indices, analyzing factors and conditions which stimulate the international trade, etc. As every method has its advantages and disadvantages, the scientists seek to find the most reliable, methodologically justified, understandable, convenient to practical use and objective method, which could be accepted generally and widely used in strategic planning on improving competitiveness of the national export and total national economy. But why the measurement of export competitiveness is so important? The answer to this question is related to the fact, that if competitiveness can not be measured, it can not be improved. As Baltic States and other countries compete directly among each other for the export markets, the identification of the current situations of export competitiveness in comparison with other competitors and its variation in the period of time will provide the information necessary for the government, business and scientist sectors, which are creating, updating, implementing and evaluating efficiency of the export improvement strategy and various means for its stimulation. This article presents the problems related to the increase of export competitiveness in the Baltic States and its measurement. The factors enhancing export development are distinguished, possibilities on application of the basic competitiveness models and methods and their application for measurement of the export competitiveness are analysed. Based on the conducted theoretical analysis, the index of measurement of the Baltic States export competitiveness was established, thus allowing to identify the main factors determining competitiveness of the Baltic States export and quantitative measure the competitiveness of the Baltic States export. The established index is empirically based when assessing competitiveness of the Baltic States export within the period of 2005 – 2010. The article ends by providing strategic proposals regarding increase in export competitiveness of Lithuania. The newly created Baltic States export competitiveness index, presented in the article, is one of the ambitions to promote the methodological background for measurement of export competitiveness and promote establishment of conditions, stimulating national enterprises to export and be competitive within international markets.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.23.1.1218
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Ospina-Holguín, Javier Humberto, and Ana Milena Padilla-Ospina. "THE SEARCH FOR TIME-SERIES PREDICTABILITY-BASED ANOMALIES." Journal of Business Economics and Management 23, no. 1 (November 29, 2021): 1–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2021.15650.
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This paper introduces a new algorithm for exploiting time-series predictability-based patterns to obtain an abnormal return, or alpha, with respect to a given benchmark asset pricing model. The algorithm proposes a deterministic daily market timing strategy that decides between being fully invested in a risky asset or in a risk-free asset, with the trading rule represented by a parametric perceptron. The optimal parameters are sought in-sample via differential evolution to directly maximize the alpha. Successively using two modern asset pricing models and two different portfolio weighting schemes, the algorithm was able to discover an undocumented anomaly in the United States stock market cross-section, both out-of-sample and using small transaction costs. The new algorithm represents a simple and flexible alternative to technical analysis and forecast-based trading rules, neither of which necessarily maximizes the alpha. This new algorithm was inspired by recent insights into representing reinforcement learning as evolutionary computation.
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Zylbersztajn, Decio, and Lygia B. Nadalini. "Explaining agro-industrial contract breaches: the case of Brazilian tomatoes processing industry." Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural 45, no. 4 (December 2007): 899–920. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s0103-20032007000400005.
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Three hundred small tomato growers located in Brazilian northeast states, supplied a processing industry. In view of the large number of contract hazards and weak enforcement of clauses, managers have decided to move to the Midwest, where a reduced number of larger farmers have been contracted. The industry blamed high transaction costs due to the weak mechanism of public enforcement of property rights. The industry blamed some farmers of selling the product at the market for fresh consumption. Also, farmers blamed the industry for taking advantage of asymmetric information related to quality. This study presents an analysis of contract architecture and an evaluation of effects of transaction costs related variables on the likelihood of contract breaches. A panel data study with 1,523 observations and limited dependent variable models has been formulated to test hypothesis based on transaction cost theory. Results show that opportunism and the absence of courts guarantees of property rights precluded the possibility of achieving a stable contract relationship in the region.
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Askarzadeh, Taraneh, and Raj Bridgelall. "Micromobility Station Placement Optimization for a Rural Setting." Journal of Advanced Transportation 2021 (September 30, 2021): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/9808922.
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Micromobility is an evolving form of transportation modality that uses small human- or electric-powered vehicles to move people short distances. Planners expected that bike sharing, the first form of micromobility, would reduce traffic congestion, cut travel cost, reduce pollution, enable connectivity with other modes of transport, and promote public health. However, micromobility options also brought new challenges such as the difficulty of placement decisions to encourage adoption and to minimize conflict with other transport modes. Sound deployment decisions depend on the unique environmental characteristics and demographics of a location. Most studies analyzed deployments in high-density urban areas. This research determines the best locations for 5 new bike-sharing stations in Fargo, North Dakota, a small urban area in the rural United States. The workflow combines a geographic information system (GIS), level of traffic stress (LTS) ratings, and location-allocation optimization models. The spatial analysis considered 18 candidate station locations and eliminated those that fell within the 700-meter isochrone walking distance of the 11 existing stations. This case study demonstrates a scalable workflow that planners can repeat to achieve sustainable micromobility deployments by considering the land use, population density, activity points, and characteristics of the available pathways in their unique setting.
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Kaboudan, Mahmoud A. "Oil Revenue and Kuwait's Economy: An Econometric Approach." International Journal of Middle East Studies 20, no. 1 (February 1988): 45–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0020743800057500.
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This paper presents a macroeconomic model for a small developing oil-exporting economy: Kuwait. The model is a simultaneous system of difference equations. Historic effects of changes in revenues from oil exports on the country's economic conditions are simulated. The model is then used to forecast these conditions through 1990, and to test two fiscal policy alternatives under the assumption that revenues from Kuwait's oil exports will remain constant from 1986 to 1990. The following are key words: developing economies; oil-exporting economies; Middle East economies; Kuwait; Kuwait's economy; policy models; macroeconomic models; econometric models; macroeconometric models; forecasting models; and policy models.
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Gan, Christopher, Dao Le Trang Anh, and Quang Thi Thieu Nguyen. "Psychological impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on Vietnamese community." International Journal of Social Economics 48, no. 9 (June 11, 2021): 1347–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijse-08-2020-0552.
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PurposeThis study investigates the psychological impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on Vietnamese people and examines the factors affecting their psychological well-being during and after the lockdown period.Design/methodology/approachBased on the survey answers of 701 Vietnamese respondents, this study explores the psychological impact associated with COVID-19 lockdown in Vietnam. Using a newly developed “mvord” package in R that controls the heterogeneity in error structure of the sample units (Hirk et al., 2020), the study runs multivariate ordinal logistic regression models to examine the determinants of the emotional outcomes.FindingsThe study discloses negative psychological states among the Vietnamese community during and after the lockdown, including boredom, anxiety, sadness, stress, anger, precautionary measures and post-traumatic stress symptoms. Demographic characteristics (male gender, young age, poor-health condition, high educational level, small family size, officers or professionals, using public transport, quarantine experience before the lockdown, non-extended lockdown period and living in rural areas) and various difficulties during lockdown (insufficient information about COVID-19, income loss, having daily-life difficulties and unhappy experiences during lockdown) are related to higher degrees of different psychological symptoms during and after lockdown in Vietnam.Originality/valueThis study identifies the importance of mitigating the detrimental effects of the COVID-19 lockdown on Vietnamese well-being and prepares the Vietnamese government better to handle the public mental issues during future lockdowns.
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Anwer, Md Ejaz, Bimal Kishore Sahoo, and Simantini Mohapatra. "Spatio-temporal variations in agricultural diversification in India." Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies 9, no. 5 (October 14, 2019): 476–502. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jadee-11-2018-0161.
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Purpose Agriculture diversification acts as income enhancing as well as distress mitigating strategy. India has witnessed rise in per-capita income which in turn has increased the demand for food particularly high-valued food items but agricultural production has failed to keep pace with the growing demand. The purpose of this paper is to examine spatio-temporal variations in agricultural diversification (AD) in India. Second, the authors try to identify the determinants of AD. Third, the authors examine the convergence hypothesis with reference to agriculture diversification across Indian states. Design/methodology/approach The study is based on the panel data constituting 20 major states of India during 1990–1991 to 2013–2014. It uses Simpson Diversification Index to measure AD. The heteroskedasticity-corrected panel regression model is applied to find out the determinants of AD. The fixed-effects model is used to examine β-convergence in AD across the sample states. Alternative time series models are applied to examine σ-convergence in AD. Findings The rising per-capita income and urbanization are driving dietary diversity towards high-valued crops and providing ample opportunity for AD. But poor and inadequate cold storage facility and rising cost of cultivation are posing major hindrance to it. Small land holding and road length have negatively influenced AD which is contrary to the traditional wisdom. The study found divergence in diversification and rising inequality in diversification. Research limitations/implications The study is based on secondary data. A primary study to complement this could have been better. It is only based on one country. Social implications Food inflation has serious adverse effect on the society at large. It is necessary to promote AD for controlling food price inflation. Minimum support price provided by the government should be extended to all crops; otherwise, it will fuel inflation. Given the fact fragmentation of land holding is adversely affecting AD, community based farming and consolidation of farm land should be the way forward to improve farmers’ income as well as reduce risk. Originality/value To best of the authors’ study, this is the first study that examines determinants of AD and convergence in AD during the high growth period of India.
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Roljic, Lazo. "An expert system for national economy model simulations." Yugoslav Journal of Operations Research 12, no. 2 (2002): 247–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/yjor0202247r.
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There are some fundamental economic uncertainties. We cannot forecast economic events with a very high scientific precision. It is very clear that there does not exist a unique 'general' model, which can yield all answers to a wide range of macroeconomic issues. Therefore, we use several different kinds of models on segments of the macroeconomic problem. Different models can distinguish/solve economy desegregation, time series analysis and other subfactors involved in macroeconomic problem solving. A major issue becomes finding a meaningful method to link these econometric models. Macroeconomic models were linked through development of an Expert System for National Economy Model Simulations (ESNEMS). ESNEMS consists of five parts: (1) small-scale short-term national econometric model, (2) Methodology of Interactive Nonlinear Goal Programming (MINGP), (3) data-base of historical macro-economic aggregates, (4) software interface for interactive communications between a model and a decision maker, and (5) software for solving problems. ESNEMS was developed to model the optimum macro-economic policy of a developing country (SFRY-formerly Yugoslavia). Most econometric models are very complex. Optimizing of the economic policy is typically defined as a nonlinear goal programming problem. To solve/optimize these models, a new methodology, MINGP, was developed as a part of ESNEMS. MINGP is methodologically based on linear goal programming and feasible directions method. Using Euler's Homogeneous Function Theorem, MINGP linearizes nonlinear homogeneous functions. The highest priorities in minimizing the objective function are the growth of gross domestic product and the decrease of inflation. In the core of the optimization model, MINGP, there is a small-scale econometric model. This model was designed through analysis of the causal relations in the SFRY's social reproduction process of the past 20 years. The objective of the econometric model is to simulate potential short term (one-year) national economic policies. Ex-ante simulation and optimization of economic policy for 1986 showed that, in SFRY, non-consistent macro-economic policy was resolute and led to both slower economic development and more rapid growth of inflation.
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Foster, John. "The Relationship between Remittances and Savings in Small Pacific Island States: Some Econometric Evidence." Asian and Pacific Migration Journal 4, no. 1 (March 1995): 117–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/011719689500400106.
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The relationship between remittances and savings is examined for Tonga and Western Samoa using an econometric modelling approach. Savings deposits of various types held in banks in these countries are modelled and evidence is discovered of a strong relationship with the income level of migrants. Remittances are also found to be interest sensitive. The implications of the results for the “remittance decay” hypothesis are considered and preliminary conclusions are drawn with regard to the feasibility of introducing strategies to increase migrant saving flows into these and other South Pacific countries.
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Ionescu, Romeo Victor, Valentin Marian Antohi, Monica Laura Zlati, Lucian Puiu Georgescu, and Catalina Iticescu. "To a Green Economy across the European Union." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 19 (September 29, 2022): 12427. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912427.
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“Is the green economy a real solution to the present economic development?” represents the main question of the present research. The paper deals with assessing the impact of innovation on the green economy and quality of life through policies promoted at the European Union (EU) level. The objectives of the paper are to assess the impact level of the policy implementation across the Member States through the research and development (R&D) process and to identify models for the development of the green economy in Europe. The applied methods are empirical and analytical based on the study of literature, econometric modeling, pivoting econometric models, trend synthesis, prioritization, and staging of policy experimentation in the Member States through data processing and statistical programs. The results consist in obtaining development models for the green economy at the EU and national levels. In conclusion, the paper contributes to the early identification of vulnerabilities that may affect the development of European strategic projects in relation to events and security breaches occurring at the EU level at any given time.
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Suryan, Viktor. "ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODELS FOR AIR TRAFFIC PASSENGER OF INDONESIA." Journal of the Civil Engineering Forum 3, no. 1 (August 29, 2017): 303. http://dx.doi.org/10.22146/jcef.26594.
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One of the major benefits of the air transport services operating in bigger countries is the fact that they provide a vital social economic linkage. This study is an attempt to establish the determinants of the passenger air traffic in Indonesia. The main objective of the study is to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of panel data and to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of time series data. This research also predicts the upcoming number of air traffic passenger until 2030. Air transportation and the economic activity in a country are interdependent. This work first uses the data at the country level and then at the selected airport level for review. The methodology used in this study has adopted the study for both normal regression and panel data regression techniques. Once all these steps are performed, the final equation is taken up for the forecast of the passenger inflow data in the Indonesian airports. To forecast the same, the forecasted numbers of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and population (independent variables were chosen as a part of the literature review exercise) are used. The result of this study shows the GDP per capita have significant related to a number of passengers which the elasticity 2.23 (time-series data) and 1.889 for panel data. The exchange rate variable is unrelated to a number of passengers as shown in the value of elasticity. In addition, the total of population gives small value for the elasticity. Moreover, the number of passengers is also affected by the dummy variable (deregulation). With three scenarios: low, medium and high for GDP per capita, the percentage of growth for total number of air traffic passenger from the year 2015 to 2030 is 199.3%, 205.7%, and 320.9% respectively.
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Capps, Oral. "Dynamics of macroeconomic factor effects on food assistance program participation in the United States." PLOS ONE 17, no. 6 (June 13, 2022): e0269442. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0269442.
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Using polynomial distributed lag (PDL) models, the impacts of macroeconomic factors relating to economic, financial, and sociological stress and designed to be short-run predictors of U.S. economic performance are identified and assessed concerning participation in key food assistance programs (SNAP, WIC, and NSLP). The econometric analysis covers the period October 1999 to September 2020. The impact of COVID-19 on participation in these programs also is quantified. Based on the parameter estimates obtained from the econometric PDL models, ex-ante forecasts of participation in the SNAP, WIC, and NSLP subsequently are made and evaluated over the period October 2020 to August 2021. The empirical results show that different sets of macroeconomic drivers affect participation levels across the respective food assistance programs. No macroeconomic factor is common across SNAP, WIC, and NSLP participation. Changes in macroeconomic conditions which influence SNAP, WIC and NSLP participation are not just contemporaneous but also affect participation levels anywhere from 1 month to 12 months later. Importantly, this research allows not only the determination of the macroeconomic factors which affect program participation but also allows the determination of the ability of the respective models to forecast program participation. As such, the Food and Nutrition Service will be in better position to assess program needs as well as to forecast program participation levels to minimize errors in the budgetary process.
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Tuskov, Andrey A., and Daria A. Goldueva. "ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF THE INTERNATIONAL HAPPINESS INDEX." Krasnoyarsk Science 11, no. 4 (December 29, 2022): 77–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2070-7568-2022-11-4-77-95.
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Purpose – offer different variants of building multiple regression models to describe real economic processes.
Method or methodology of the work: the article uses the econometric method of data analysis.
Results: it was shown that econometric methods are effective in describing the hidden dependencies of the economic system. The study proposes several ways to build regression models: the classical version using the matrix of pairwise correlation coefficients (correlation pleiades method), the method of inflation factors, denying the presence of “moderately strong” dependence, after which the removal of “unnecessary” factors was performed using Gretl tool “Test for excess variables”, as well as using the principal components method to consider the influence of all factors on the dependent variable. In order to facilitate the interpretation of the results obtained, the article shows the transition from the principal components to the original data. The model is built on a publicly available dataset available to the research community.
The sphere of application of the results: in practice, the results are useful for planning effective strategies for the development of individual states, as well as a manual for beginner econometricians wishing to learn different approaches to econometric modeling with the use of effective tools.
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Słaba – Wiącek, Marcelina. "Checking econometric models in times of market and consumer change." VUZF Review 7, no. 2 (June 28, 2022): 127–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.38188/2534-9228.22.2.13.
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The aim of the article is to present the checking of econometric models in times of market and consumer changes. The development of the SFP balance, the budget deficit against real GDP in the years 2010-2019 and the debt forecast for the years 2021-2024 are presented here. It can be noted that different factors in different countries shape the budget balance. In 2009, the Baltic States were in the most difficult situation. The budget deficit and real GDP in Poland mean that a large part of the deficits in the economic situation is subordinated here. This shows that it is not cyclical factors that are behind it, but factors related to fiscal policy. The biggest problem was the problem in which the global financial crisis began and our deficits began to increase rapidly. The source of coverage had to be found. An additional problem was the pension reform related to OFE when we did not see it in the deficit, but we still had to incur a debt for funds transferred to OFE about PLN 20 billion per year. There was an idea to take some of these funds out of the sector. The pandemic has cast a shadow over our finances. The strategy prepared before the pandemic assumed that public debt would increase in nominal terms, but there would also be a significant decrease in relative terms to GDP. The flexibility that took place in 2015 caused that there was an expenditure expansion in Poland, and this consequently led to the appearance of the "gluttony effect". In Poland, there was a high increase in GDP, but Poles spent more, which made Poles "overeat" this increase. In addition, we are glad that we have a high GDP, and in fact it is falsified by inflation.
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Zadadaev, Sergey A., and Pavel B. Lukyanov. "SOFT COMPUTING AND SMALL DATA IN AN ECONOMETRIC STUDY OF NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT GOALS." SOFT MEASUREMENTS AND COMPUTING 11, no. 60 (2022): 65–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.36871/2618-9976.2022.11.006.
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The aim of the work was to model the mechanism of the influence of an exogenous resource variable on the predicted indicator of the national development goal, in which one model was selected from an infinite family of hypothetical resource allocation models within a year, reflecting the uncertainty inherent in soft computing. The study of problems based on small sample data in the age of big data is substantiated by the fact that there are a number of longitudinal tasks of longterm research in which, after 5–6 years of testing any methods, it is necessary to obtain data on their effectiveness and predictability in general. At the same time, the data slice occurs strictly at the end of the year as a control and summary measurement. In such cases, special econometric specifications of models are required that take into account the "physics" of relationships. This situation is similar to the situation in mechanics, when small data are compensated by the laws of motion and play the role of initial data in the Cauchy problem for differential equations – when the law itself is known and does not need to be estimated using big data.
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Doszyń, Mariusz. "Econometric Models of Real Estate Prices with Prior Information. Mixed Estimation." Real Estate Management and Valuation 30, no. 3 (September 1, 2022): 61–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/remav-2022-0021.
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Abstract The purpose of this paper is to estimate econometric models with sample and prior information. Prices of land property for residential development in Szczecin are modeled (the price level was determined for 2018). Modeling property prices only based on sample data generates numerous problems. Transaction databases from local real estate markets often contain a small number of observations. Properties are frequently similar, which results in low variability of property characteristics, and thus – low efficiency of parameter estimators. In such a situation, the impact of some features cannot be estimated from the sample data. As a solution to this problem, the paper proposes econometric models that consider prior information. This information can be, for example, in the form of property feature weights proposed by experts. The prior information will be expressed in the form of stochastic restrictions imposed on the model parameters. In the simulation experiment, the predictive power of mixed estimation models is compared with two kind of models: OLS models and model with only prior information. It turned out that mixed estimation results are superior with regard to formal criteria and predictive abilities.
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Mendonca, Mario J. C., Tito Belchior Silva Moreira, Paulo R. A. Loureiro, Michel Constantino, and Rosa Meguerian-Faria. "DOES THE NEW DRUG LAW AFFECT THE HOMICIDE RATE? THE BRAZILIAN EXPERIENCE." Economic Analysis of Law Review 11, no. 3 (June 6, 2021): 311. http://dx.doi.org/10.31501/ealr.v11i3.12395.
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This article aims to analyze the effect of the new drug law, in force since 2006, on the efficiency of incarceration in reducing the homicide rate. There exists a reasonable consensus in the literature that the incarceration rate is valid for reducing the homicide rate, i.e., arresting more offenders usually entails lower homicide rates. However, by hypothesis, since the new drug law does not make clearly differentiating between user and drug dealer, this could increase the punishment of drug users and weakened punishment to the trafficker. Hence, we test this hypothesis based on panel data econometric models considering data from Brazilian states between 2004 and 2014. Results from the econometric models show, based on empirical evidence, that with the new drug law there was increased the efficacy of incarceration in reducing the homicide rate, contrary to what we expected.
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Stavytskyy, Andriy, and Daria Martynovych. "THE ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF UKRAINIAN MACROECONOMIC TENDENCIES." Ekonomika 91, no. 1 (January 1, 2012): 79–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.15388/ekon.2012.0.906.
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Econometric models are widely used in economic policies of many states. They help to build a great variety of econometric systems for every country and take into account the specifics of each economy.In this article, the structural macroeconomic models that describe the main aspects of the economic policy were applied. The interdependence between the level of inflation, the value of investment, savings, consumption, export and import transactions, taxes on the foreign trade were defined based on the analysis of the key macroeconomic parameters of Ukraine. After investigating all economic indicators, they were transformed into stationary time series for a correct use in the model. In addition, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation of residuals were excluded in all econometric equations.As a result, the research shows that a large share of black economy leads to a rather high level of inflation in the state, because its value is primarily determined by expectations of the population under such circumstances. The paper indicates that the further export growth leads to a lower consumption growth and also to a lower growth of savings. Such a situation indicates an insufficient development of the domestic market. Investment growth has been fund not to be directly linked to consumption increase and economic development in general. Unfortunately, the main sources of investment in Ukraine are the funds of enterprises and foreign sources. The analysis shows a need to encourage public involvement into investment processes. For example, the creation of public–private partnerships is especially useful while implementing infrastructural projects.
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Zoidov, Kobiljon Kh, and Zafar K. Zoidov. "Gravitational econometric models of foreign trade of the EAEU+ countries: analysis, assessment and search for sources of inclusive economic growth." Market economy problems, no. 3 (2021): 196–226. http://dx.doi.org/10.33051/2500-2325-2021-3-196-226.
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The article presents an analysis and assessment of Russia's foreign trade cooperation based on the gravitational econometric model with other EAEU+ countries with which there are stable economic relations. Inclusive growth is understood as economic growth aimed at creating favorable conditions for improving the quality of life and ensuring equal opportunities for all groups of the population in the national economy. Ensuring economic inclusion is the most important condition for sustainable economic growth. The main idea of the approach is a gravitational econometric model of foreign trade and foreign trade turnover, which directly depends on the economic capabilities of trading countries (GDP) and inversely depends on the distance between these countries. Goal. To test the hypothesis that the growth of income from trade is possible in the future, taking into account the growth of GDP in the EAEU+ member states. To develop gravitational econometric models of Russia's foreign trade within the framework of the development and expansion of the EAEU. Tasks. To present a retrospective analysis of the foreign economic activity of Russia and other EAEU+ countries in the period from 1991 to 2021. To analyze, evaluate and search for sources of inclusive economic growth based on the use of gravitational econometric models of foreign trade of the EAEU+ countries. Methodology. The methods of system analysis, classification and comparison, evolutionary-institutional theory and analytical approach were applied in the course of the study. Results. The high empirical accuracy of gravitational econometric models, demonstrated by their use in research, allows us to build the most reliable medium-term forecasts of economic growth and development of foreign trade, to search for the optimal scenario for the realization of the export potential of the national economy to adapt to the geo-graphical trade race. It should be noted that the use of gravitational economic models to identify trade relations that can be implemented both locally and globally. Conclusions. Based on the results of the gravitational econometric model of foreign trade, it is established that in the future the growth of trade turnover between the EAEU+ countries are possible taking into account the GDP growth of these countries. The EAEU+ countries have significant economic potential to increase mutual trade flows and further integration into world trade.
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Surmann, Markus, Wolfgang Brunauer, and Sven Bienert. "How does energy efficiency influence the Market Value of office buildings in Germany and does this effect increase over time?" Journal of European Real Estate Research 8, no. 3 (November 2, 2015): 243–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jerer-04-2015-0018.
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Purpose – The paper aims to estimate the effect of energy efficiency on the Market Value of office buildings and consider whether this effect increases over time. Design/methodology/approach – The authors analyze a dataset of office building valuations from 2009 to 2011, provided by the German Investment Property Database. The authors use hedonic regression models to determine the effect of energy efficiency and energy consumption on Market Values. Using generalized additive models (GAM) for modeling nonlinear covariate effects, the authors control for further building characteristics and location. Due to the small sample size, the authors introduce an innovative econometric approach that mitigates this problem. Findings – Mainly due to the small sample size, and in spite of the newly developed econometric methodology, the authors do not find clear evidence of the relationship between energy efficiency and the Market Value. However, the study nonetheless provides interesting insights into the composition of office building Market Values in Germany. Originality/value – In addition to the empirical results for the German office market, the main contribution of this paper lies in the econometric methodology. Beside the application of cutting-edge statistical techniques, the authors develop a method for handling datasets, for which the variable of interest is rarely observed, leveraging on the total available data. Thus, the methodology offers promising prospects for future research in similar settings.
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Svetlana V. Doroshenko Ksenia A. Posysoeva, Svetlana V. Doroshenko Ksenia A. Posysoeva, and Svetlana V. Doroshenko Ksenia A. Posysoeva Svetlana V. Doroshenko Ksenia A. Posysoeva. "Econometric Estimation of Strategic Development Factors of Russian Border Regions." Economy of Region 17, no. 2 (June 2021): 431–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2021-2-6.
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Cross-border development is significantly influenced by global events, such as 1990s transformations, when different inland areas across the world became borderlands. Further, due to 2014 geopolitical changes, the Russian Federation had to establish a new institutional framework regulating the border regional development. The research aims to assess the impact of strategic factors on socio-economic development of these regions. For that purpose, we analysed 47 of 50 Russian border entities divided into two groups of old and new (established after the collapse of the USSR in 1991) border regions. We hypothesise that the factors considered as strategic in these territories manifest differently in old and new border regions. Empirical data, obtained from the Federal State Statistics Service and Unified Interdepartmental Statistical Information System, cover the period from 2000 to 2018. The simulation was conducted using the statistical package Stata 14. We analysed five groups of factors (transport infra- structure, small business, foreign trade, tourism, ecology) as well as corresponding indicators. Gross regional product per capita in comparable prices of 2018 was considered as a dependent variable. Then, we assessed three models explaining the impact of the examined factors on old and new border regions individually and in combination. For each model, pooled regression, as well as random and fixed effects models were constructed. Conducted simulations revealed that the fixed effects models best describe the analysed data. The research results confirmed the hypothesis, showing that transport infrastructure and tourism are more important for new border regions, while the factors of ecology, small business and foreign trade have a greater impact on the development of old borderlands.
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KECK, ALEXANDER, BRUCE MALASHEVICH, and IAN GRAY. "A ‘probabilistic’ approach to the use of econometric models in sunset reviews." World Trade Review 6, no. 3 (October 31, 2007): 371–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1474745607003436.
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AbstractEconomists have increasingly become involved in trade remedy and litigation matters that call for economic interpretation or quantification. The literature on the use of econometric methods in response to legal requirements of trade policy is rather limited. This article contributes to filling this gap by demonstrating the efficacy of using a simple ‘probabilistic’ model in analyzing the ‘likelihood’ of injury to the local industry concerned, following a finding of continuation or recurrence of dumping (or countervailable subsidies). The legal concept of ‘likelihood’ is not only particularly well-suited to illustrate the systemic need for trade lawyers and economists to cooperate. It is also of imminent practical relevance with a groundswell of ‘sunset’ reviews looming on the horizon. We discuss the significance of economic analysis for trade remedy investigations by reviewing the literature, the applicable WTO rules, and, in particular, the pertinent case law. The potential value of probabilistic simulations for ‘likelihood’ determinations is exemplified using a real-world application. Using data from past United States International Trade Commission investigations, we find that a probabilistic model that takes account of the uncertainty surrounding economic parameters reduces the risk of misjudging the effect on the domestic industry of a termination of trade remedies.
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UZLAU, MARILENA CARMEN, NICOLAE MIHAILESCU, CORINA MARIA ENE, CONSTANTIN AURELIAN IONESCU, LILIANA PASCHIA, NICOLETA LUMINITA GUDANESCU NICOLAU, SORINA GEANINA STANESCU, and MIHAELA DENISA COMAN. "MATHEMATICAL ASSESSMENT ON DYNAMICS OF GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA, IN ROMANIA AND EUROPEAN UNION." Journal of Science and Arts 21, no. 1 (March 30, 2021): 199–220. http://dx.doi.org/10.46939/j.sci.arts-21.1-a16.
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The research purpose represents the identification and mathematical definition of some models expressed by regression equations describing the GE per inhabitant according to the GDP per inhabitant. The study is customized at EU level and in seven states located in the Eastern-EU (RO, PL, GR, BG, SI, SK and HU) for the period 2009-2018. The research methodology is based on econometric modelling and testing of their viability. Relevant conclusions are also made regarding RO's position in the European Union in terms of government spending. The research provides useful information to substantiate micro and macroeconomic decisions designed to ensure a dynamic of GE’s sustainable growth on education, health, general public services, defense, public order and safety. Based on the developed econometric models, values of endogenous variables (GE per capita) can be estimated depending on the variants of predictable scenarios for the size of the GDP per capita.
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Sheng, Shuyang. "A Structural Econometric Analysis of Network Formation Games Through Subnetworks." Econometrica 88, no. 5 (2020): 1829–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.3982/ecta12558.
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The objective of this paper is to identify and estimate network formation models using observed data on network structure. We characterize network formation as a simultaneous‐move game, where the utility from forming a link depends on the structure of the network, thereby generating strategic interactions between links. With the prevalence of multiple equilibria, the parameters are not necessarily point identified. We leave the equilibrium selection unrestricted and propose a partial identification approach. We derive bounds on the probability of observing a subnetwork, where a subnetwork is the restriction of a network to a subset of the individuals. Unlike the standard bounds as in Ciliberto and Tamer (2009), these subnetwork bounds are computationally tractable in large networks provided we consider small subnetworks. We provide Monte Carlo evidence that bounds from small subnetworks are informative in large networks.
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Shpak, Nestor, Solomiya Ohinok, Ihor Kulyniak, Włodzimierz Sroka, Yuriy Fedun, Romualdas Ginevičius, and Joanna Cygler. "CO2 Emissions and Macroeconomic Indicators: Analysis of the Most Polluted Regions in the World." Energies 15, no. 8 (April 15, 2022): 2928. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15082928.
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There is no sector of the economy that is not dependent on the state of development of the energy sector. This sector produces a significant share of global CO2 emissions. Harmful CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas emissions accelerate global warming. Therefore, more and more countries are adopting a strategy for the transition to carbon-neutral energy. However, energy independence and economic competitiveness are closely linked. One cannot analyze them separately. Given these facts, we focused on conducting an econometric study of the impact of key macroeconomic indicators on the level of CO2 emissions into the air in the United States and the Asia-Pacific region as the regions with the largest CO2 emissions. The modeling was carried out using the method of a correlation–regression analysis with the subsequent construction of econometric models. The quality of the built econometric models was checked using the coefficient of determination and Fisher’s criterion. The sample of statistics was formed from all the available values of the World Bank’s annual indicators for the period 1970–2020. The findings achieved showed that: (i) The results of our study confirmed the dependence of CO2 emissions on macroeconomic factors such as GDP, exports and imports, the rate of inflation, and unemployment. It allows the governments of many countries to use research findings to diagnose, monitor, and forecast macroeconomic outcomes to reduce or maintain allowable CO2 emissions. (ii) Identifying and assessing economic losses from environmental pollution by CO2 emissions using econometric models will allow to ensure effective public environmental and economic policies aimed at reducing harmful CO2 emissions into the air. It may be regarded as the practical importance of our study.
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Maharramov, S. "Econometric Assessment of Azerbaijan's Logistics Capabilities in Terms of Relations with Turkic-Speaking States." Economic Herald of the Donbas, no. 4 (66) (2021): 45–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.12958/1817-3772-2021-4(66)-45-52.
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Modern world grows very fast every day. The main arrow of every state economy is logistics sector, which is increasing very dynamically. The Turkic Speaking States are locating on the Historical Great Silk Road. The total of territory and population of those countries are 4 732 082 km2 and 157 949 505 people. After collapsing the USSR, the five Turkic Speaking States get independence (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan), economy and political policy of those states have been changed to the modern market rules. The most of those countries economy base on the raw materials, gas and petroleum. For exporting of all those raw materials the States need strong logistics systems. The article illustrates the economic development of logistics sectors and trade over between Turkic Speaking States. This research will help to open the problems and find out the solution, implementation of the logistics policy for all of them. Using strong and different fundamental databases, such as statistic of those countries, trade balance, logistics relations, import and export dates, different correlation methods and economic models, the international resource and powerful academic literature help to describe the potential of economy relation and real situations, perspectives, problems and logistics power of the Turkic Speaking States.