Academic literature on the topic 'Standard and Poor’s Corporation'

This short note discusses the importance of the decision facing the US Justice Department in the near future regarding whether or not to take action against Moody’s Corp. for its actions in the lead up to the Financial Crisis. Having already fined Standard & Poor’s a record USD 1.375 billion for defrauding investors, the Justice Department faces a much different proposition. This note establishes just some of the reasons why it is imperative that Moody’s is punished, even if ultimately the punishment is less noticeable than that given to Standard & Poor’s.

ABSTRACT This research proposes a Corporation Network Centrality Score (CNCS) that exploits the social network implicit in Twitter interactions that are relevant to capital markets. The CNCS is the eigenvector network centrality score for interactions about corporations. The CNCS provides a summary numeric metric that captures a wide range of market-relevant information about the corporation it represents. The study asserts that the CNCS will assist the monitoring of corporations by auditors, regulators, and other market participants. The research calculates the CNCS for Standard & Poor's (S&P) 1500 firms and then tests the robustness of the metric by regressing CNCS on a set of variables that are known to convey firm fundamentals information to the capital markets. The study finds that CNCS is strongly associated with firm-led disclosures, market-based firm characteristics, and accounting-based firm fundamentals information. JEL Classifications: M41.

This study focuses on the narrative strategies corporations utilize to communicate their annual results to investors and the financial community. Specifically, the study looks at the sample of overperforming and underperforming companies and analyzes how management shapes their performance results using a variety of narrative strategies in their annual reports. The study uses DICTION software in order to perform a computerized content analysis of annual reports of a purposive sample of Standard & Poor’s 500 corporations and identify and compare the usage of the 35 narrative strategies.

The changes generated by the natural economic and social development have configured a scenario where the companies’ survival is gradually decreasing. This process is also impacting on the big corporations that were strongly consolidated for many years. This research has analysed that which of these major companies of the Fortune 500 Index have adapted themselves over the years and have survived. After locating the surviving companies, this paper studied the presence of elements of business quality in each of these firms. Then, using a fuzzy set methodology, this study obtained results that identified some of the main elements that might be considered as inductors of the business durability in the case of the big corporations: the effectiveness of the companies, the coherence with the mission, and the capacity of organisation are essential for the long-term sustainability of the companies especially if they are associated with a formalised structure of governance. The results also conclude that the simple presence of these elements is not enough for the permanence of the companies and only the progresses and improvements in these variables can guarantee the sustainability of the companies.

ABSTRACT We examine the taxation of corporate income earned in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and how the repeal of the possession tax credit available under Internal Revenue Code (IRC) §936 resulted in many U.S. companies converting former possessions corporations into controlled foreign corporations. Although Puerto Rico is a U.S. territory, the conversions highlight that corporations organized under the laws of the Commonwealth generally are foreign corporations for U.S. tax purposes. A U.S. Senate Subcommittee reports Microsoft Corporation shifted offshore the recognition of nearly one-half of its U.S. net retail sales revenue for the period 2009–2011 by transferring intellectual property rights to a controlled subsidiary in Puerto Rico. We find that the corresponding U.S. tax benefits are significant compared to the credits once claimed under IRC §936, and over 20 percent of Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 firms were in a similar position to avoid federal taxation by shifting income between political subdivisions of the United States.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine listed companies, grouped by sector, that for decades have shown a dividend growth. Referring to the food and beverage (F&B) industry, the authors have investigated the adoption of an open innovation model in order to fill a gap in the existing literature. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses a multi-method design linking qualitative and quantitative approaches. The quantitative study was planned in order to identify some US-listed companies, called Dividend Champions that have distributed consistently growing dividends for over 50 years and have beaten the markets. The qualitative study was designed to provide insight into the adoption or not of an open innovation model by the listed companies in the F&B industry in the US market that were selected by the quantitative analysis. Findings The research is based on an empirical analysis undertaken with 816 listed companies in US markets. In particular, the authors underline 20 companies that over the past 50 years have systematically increased dividend paid, and at the same time, have beaten the market (Standard & Poor’s 500). In all, 30 per cent of the selected companies belong to the consumer goods sector, and F&B companies represent 50 per cent of them. All of these companies (The Coca-Coca Company, Hormel Foods Corporation, and Lancaster Colony Corporation) implement an open innovation model. Originality/value To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first exploratory study based on value maximisation and open innovation. An open innovation model increases competitiveness and the durability of competitive advantage, which are main sources of value creation. The paper highlights evidence from the F&B industry, referred to as Dividend Champions, and the adoption of an open innovation model.

For many investors, dividends play a key role in evaluating the return of a common stock and the main reason for making the investment. For those investors, dividends are a necessary aspect since they are a vital source of income. But with the Covid-19 pandemic, many corporations have been adversely affected by a global economic slowdown. For publicly traded corporations, depending on its industry, dividends have been sharply affected to the point of either being reduced or suspended indefinitely. Using the Standard and Poor’s 500 stock index as a guide, stock analysts can possibly acquire a better understanding as to how reduced or suspended dividend income will affect different investors. The aim and purpose of this paper is to examine the affect the reduction and suspension of dividends will have as a source of needed income for private investors, pension funds, mutual funds, insurance companies, and real estate investment trusts.

The impact of failure of financial institutions is beyond just the failure of a public corporation. The failure of financial institutions in the USA, is a clear evidence that the greater macro impact is beyond just the failure of few financial institutions. It can bring down the entire economy and can have global devastating impact. By realizing the grave systemic risk of the failure, US government is forced to intervene and bail out many institutions for greater macro-economic reasons. It raises the view that perhaps the current regulating policies and methods are lacking efficiency in predicting the possibility of failure ahead of time and hence not effective in preventing that to happen. In this research we apply several existing methods of institutional failure and test the signaling ability of each method in predicting the bankruptcy well ahead of time. We apply Moody’s financial ratios, Standard and Poor’s financial ratio, vaziri’s financial ratio, Altman’s Z score and then applying logit model and discriminant analysis, we test each of these model’s predictive ability for future use. We analyze the reasons like changes in market, policy, economy, and political influence which have led to bankruptcy. Banks or financial institutions from Europe, United States and Asia are considered as samples. Samples are taken from same period to analyze the effect of different methods. The results from this analysis should help us find the most significant method that could be used to identify the risk, so that necessary action could be taken to prevent the effect or reject the project which could lead to bankruptcy in the future. This research would also offer policy recommendations for regulating agencies as to which factors should be analyzed deeply and how to implement a preventive measure ahead of any potential problems.

O objetivo do estudo é analisar o efeito da reputação corporativa na tax avoidance de empresas brasileiras de capital aberto. O tema é pouco explorado na área de contabilidade e tributos e, no Brasil não foi encontrado estudo que relacione de forma direta a reputação corporativa com a tax avoidance, o que garante o pioneirismo do estudo. Para alcançar tal propósito, utilizam-se regressões de dados em painel (estimadores FE-LSDV, RE e GMM) e testa-se a hipótese de associação da reputação corporativa com a tax avoidance. Utiliza a Effective Tax Rate – ETR e a ETR Diferencial como proxie de tax avoidance. A reputação corporativa é mensurada através de cinco proxies: (i) presença da firma no ranking Melhores e Maiores empresas do Brasil da revista Exame; (ii) ratings da Standard & Poor’s; (iii) Índice de Responsabilidade Empresarial – ISE; (iv) cobertura de analistas de mercado, e; (v) Índice de Reputação Corporativa – IRC, construída neste estudo para capturar a reputação estabelecida. A amostra de pesquisa contempla 225 empresas brasileiras de capital aberto, totalizando 1.575 observações/ano no período de 2010 a 2016. Em conjunto, os resultados confirmam parcialmente a hipótese de pesquisa, uma vez que nem todas as proxies de reputação se mostraram eficientes. Contudo, evidenciam a propensão das empresas com reputação forte a aumentarem a tax avoidance. Uma possível explicação para os achados é que essas empresas ignoram possíveis fatores de riscos fiscais e danos à reputação, sugerindo a existência do fenômeno do licenciamento moral no contexto dessas empresas.

Swimming pools have become major recreation facilities for leisure and sports in cities across the world, but the standard guidelines, particularly in developing countries, are not adhered to because little is known about the contaminants in the pools and the possible health risks involved. This study provides a survey of bacterial quality of water from swimming pools in Kampala. A total of 26 water samples were collected from 13 outdoor swimming pools in Kampala between January and June 2016 and analysed for total aerobic plate count (TPC), Escherichia coli, coliforms, and Salmonella. The heterotrophic bacterial load ranged between 0 and 6.35 × 105 cfu/ml, where 6.35 × 105 cfu/ml was the highest load and 3 × 101 cfu/ml the least. The highest average TPC was 6.19 × 105 cfu/ml and the lowest 5.07 × 103 cfu/ml. 30.8% of the pools had TPC within acceptable limits (≤5 × 102 cfu/ml), whereas 69.2% were highly contaminated and did not conform to the Uganda National Water and Sewerage Corporation standards of recreational water quality for both treated (0 cfu/100 mls) water and untreated (10 cfu/100 mls) water. Although no positive results were yielded for E. coli, coliforms, and Salmonella, TPC represented the presence of heterotrophic bacteria which are often indicated in opportunistic infections.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--George Mason University, 2008.
Vita: p. 75. Thesis director: Willem Thorbeck. Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics. Title from PDF t.p. (viewed Aug. 27, 2008). Includes bibliographical references (p. 70-74). Also issued in print.

In this study a two-part mixed probability density function was derived which described the relative changes in the Standard and Poor's 100 Stock Index over various intervals of time. The density function is a mixture of two different halves of normal distributions. Optimal values for the standard deviations for the two halves and the mean are given. Also, a general form of the function is given which uses linear regression models to estimate the standard deviations and the means. The density functions allow stock market participants trading index options and futures contracts on the S & P 100 Stock Index to determine probabilities of success or failure of trades involving price movements of certain magnitudes in given lengths of time.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:20:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2001-07-13T00:00:00Z
Análise dos critérios determinantes dos ratings de risco soberano emitidos pela agência Standard & Poor's, evidenciando variáveis de cunho econômico e político. Realização de testes empíricos de regressão linear e análise dos coeficientes determinantes do risco soberano em moeda estrangeira.

Background: Increasingly, companies choose to finance their business with corporate bonds which has resulted in an increased demand on credit ratings. As such the rating agencies have a very important role in the financial markets. Examining the value of a credit-rating can be very interesting for both issuer and investor.

Purpose: The purpose of the study is to identify and define the value of rating.

Execution: The study is built upon nine interviews with rated and non-rated firms and investors.

Result: The most important value of rating is the greater access to the corporate- and CP market. This infers that additional capital can be issued, in comparison to that available from bank loans, however, not necessarily at a lower rate. Consequently, the rate is not the driving factor concerning the choice of buying a rating. Rating has great effect on the pricing of bonds and CP’s, which is a result of the reliance investors have on the rating agencies. Rating affects the investment decision directly through the investment mandates, and indirectly through the effect on the individual investment decision.

As a result from the latest financial crisis, the banking industry has undergone major modifications during the last years in order to limit banks’ risks. A vast majority of existing literature tends to focus upon credit risk evaluation methods and techniques mainly concerning quantitative measures and large companies. Thus, the lack of research regarding credit risk evaluation of SMEs is profound, especially considering Sweden. With the dominant market share of SMEs compared to large corporations the authors found it interesting to further explore this area of the credit assessment process as SMEs largely impact the Swedish business sector.   The purpose of the thesis at hand is to explore and provide empirical evidence of which criteria banks assess when evaluating credit risk of SMEs in Sweden. In regards to the purpose the authors have chosen to adapt the perspective of the banking industry throughout the thesis. In order to bridge the research gap the following question was established, “How do banks evaluate credit risk of SMEs in Sweden?” In light of the lack of research regarding qualitative assessment of credit risk, the authors found it interesting in terms of developing new theoretical and practical knowledge to establish the following sub-question, “What are the qualitative criteria used by banks when evaluating credit risk of SMEs in Sweden?” Further, as existing literature mainly focus on large companies the authors found it interesting to compare the findings regarding credit risk evaluation on SMEs to the evaluation process of one of the largest credit rating agencies. As a result the second sub-question was established as following, “Are these criteria similar to the criteria used by Standard & Poor’s in their rating model?” These questions were conducted in order to provide the authors and the reader with further insight regarding the criteria used by banks in their evaluation process.   An inductive approach was adopted, in line with the epistemological stance of interpretivism and the ontological belief of constructivism. With this in mind, the authors of the thesis conducted a qualitative exploratory research employing narrative interviews in order to collect the data needed, as of the lack of existing research to address the research questions.   The results of the research were that the criteria used in the assessment of credit risk tend to alter from advisor to advisor. The most commonly used criteria by the advisors are budget, business plan, customer’s customers, internal and external discipline, financial statements, industry specifics, historical accounts, key individuals, relationship, repayment capacity and the owner/individual. It was discovered that the qualitative criterion of assessing the individual majorly impacts the credit risk evaluation. However, what matters in the end is the overall impression of both qualitative and quantitative measures of the firm.   In regards to sub-question one, the authors established a list of qualitative criteria used by advisors in their credit risk evaluation of SMEs, the most widely used criteria among the advisors are the owner/individual, key individuals, internal discipline, industry specifics, external discipline, customer’s customers, relationship and business plan. In comparison with the criteria used by Standard and Poor’s and the banks, it was evident that the criteria used in the evaluation differed a lot between the two.

Dissertação de Mestrado em Engenharia Informática
Com a crescente sensibilização dos problemas energéticos que atravessamos, torna-se evidente a necessidade de adoptar uma atitude mais inteligente frente à utilização que fazemos dos recursos que temos disponíveis. Seja por uma questão financeira, motivos estratégicos ou simplesmente consciência ambiental, as grandes empresas começaram a preocupar-se com a forma como estão a gastar energia. Esta crescente tendência mundial reflecte-se numa oportunidade de negócio que não passou despercebida aos grandes produtores de hardware, e tem sido notória a preocupação em vender produtos “amigos do ambiente” e de “baixo consumo”. Diversos artigos têm sido publicados sobre este tema, que chegou a ser considerado pela conceituada consultora Gartner como a primeira preocupação das grandes empresas de tecnologias de informação para o ano de 2008. Sendo este um tema “fresco”, poucos casos práticos são conhecidos do resultado de uma “atitude verde” no dimensionamento, arquitectura e gestão dos parques tecnológicos. Esta dissertação irá mostrar um caso prático num dos centros de dados de referência em Portugal, do impacto positivo que pode ter a adopção dessa “atitude verde”, e principalmente as vantagens que podemos retirar ao conhecer todos os aspectos relacionados com o consumo energético de cada um dos elementos que constituem a realidade tecnológica de uma empresa. Um sistema de monitorização energética está a ser desenvolvido no âmbito deste Mestrado, e da informação recolhida por esse sistema serão realizados diversos estudos que ajudarão a conhecer qual o estado actual, e que melhorias poderão ser feitas ao centro de dados utilizado.

While much has been written on the Australian film and television industry, little has been presented by actual producers, filmmakers and technicians of their time and experiences within that same industry. Similarly, with historical documentaries, it has been academics rather than filmmakers who have led the debate. This thesis addresses this shortcoming and bridges the gap between practitioner experience and intellectual discussion, synthesising the debate and providing an important contribution from a filmmaker-academic, in its own way unique and insightful. The thesis is presented in two voices. First, my voice, the voice of memoir and recollected experience of my screen adventures over 38 years within the Australian industry, mainly producing historical documentaries for the ABC and the SBS. This is represented in italics. The second half and the alternate chapters provide the industry framework in which I worked with particular emphasis on documentaries and how this evolved and developed over a 40-year period, from 1970 to 2010. Within these two voices are three layers against which this history is reviewed and presented. Forming the base of the pyramid is the broad Australian film industry made up of feature films, documentary, television drama, animation and other types and styles of production. Above this is the genre documentary within this broad industry, and making up the small top tip of the pyramid, the sub-genre of historical documentary. These form the vertical structure within which industry issues are discussed. Threading through it are the duel determinants of production: ‘the market’ and ‘funding’. Underpinning the industry is the involvement of government, both state and federal, forming the three dimensional matrix for the thesis. For over 100 years the Australian film industry has depended on government support through subsidy, funding mechanisms, development assistance, broadcast policy and legislative provisions. This thesis aims to weave together these industry layers, binding them with the determinants of the market and funding, and immersing them beneath layers of government legislation and policy to present a new view of the Australian film industry.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2009.
Title from title screen (site viewed October 13, 2009). PDF text: 118 p. ; 11 Mb. UMI publication number: AAT 3358959. Includes bibliographical references. Also available in microfilm and microfiche formats.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (the S&P 500) includes the stocks of 500 of the most widely traded stocks in the U.S. It represents about 80% of the total value of U.S. stock markets. The basic aims of this paper are: firstly, to create the simple chaotic stock market index growth model that is capa­ble of generating stable equilibrium, cycles, or chaos; secondly, to analyze the local stability of the S&P 500 index movements in the period 1932-1982; thirdly, to analyze the local stability of the S&P 500 index movements in the period 1982-2009; and fourthly, to discover the equilibrium levels of the S&P 500 index in the observed periods. This paper confirms the existence of the stable convergent fluctuations of the S&P 500 index in the observed periods. Further, two Elliot wave patterns were identified in the period 1932-2009. Also, the golden ratio can be used to define the equilibrium level of the S&P 500 index in the presented chaotic model.

The prediction of stock prices dynamics is a challenging task since these kind of financial datasets are characterized by irregular fluctuations, nonlinear patterns and high uncertainty dynamic changes.The deep neural network models, and in particular the LSTM algorithm, have been increasingly used by researchers for analysis, trading and prediction of stock market time series, appointing an important role in today’s economy.The main purpose of this paper focus on the analysis and forecast of the Standard & Poor’s index by employing multivariate modelling on several correlated stock market indexes and interest rates with the support of VECM trends corrected by a LSTM recurrent neural network.

A major source of information can be taken from financial news articles, which have some correlations about the fluctuation of stock trends. In this paper, we investigate the influences of financial news on the stock trends, from a multi-instance view. The intuition behind this is based on the news uncertainty of varying intervals of news occurrences and the lack of annotation in every single financial news. Under the scenario of Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) where training instances are arranged in bags, and a label is assigned for the entire bag instead of instances, we develop a flexible and adaptive multi-instance learning model and evaluate its ability in directional movement forecast of Standard & Poor’s 500 index on financial news dataset. Specifically, we treat each trading day as one bag, with certain amounts of news happening on each trading day as instances in each bag. Experiment results demonstrate that our proposed multi-instance-based framework gains outstanding results in terms of the accuracy of trend prediction, compared with other state-of-art approaches and baselines.

Hg pencil-type discharge lamps are widely used for alignment and calibration of instruments in analytical spectroscopy laboratories. Their wide availability, easy operation, and simple spectrum make them an attractive source for wavelength calibration; however, no precise measurements of the Hg lines as emitted by these lamps have previously been published. As one component of a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with Oriel Corporation, we have observed several Hg pencil lamps with a high-resolution Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) and have evaluated their suitability as a source of wavelength standards.

Large drop in creep rupture strength in the long-term is a noticeable phenomenon for high Cr ferritic creep resistant steels, and the neglecting this phenomenon may result in overestimation of 100,000h creep rupture strength, and allowable stress. A committee at Japan Power Engineering and Inspection Corporation was organized to evaluate long-term creep strength and to review current allowable stresses of high Cr ferritic creep resistant steels. Life prediction method for high Cr ferritic creep resistant steels with tempered martensite microstructure is discussed. Appropriateness of current allowable tensile stress regulated in METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) Thermal Power Standard Code has been assessed on a modified 9Cr-1Mo steel (ASME Gr.91) and KA-SUS410J3 type steels. KA-SUS410J3 is a material specification in METI Thermal Power Standard Code and corresponds to ASME Gr.122. The validity of existing allowable stress was shown on a modified 9Cr-1Mo steel. Those for KA-SUS410J3 type steels, however, have been revised to the lower values.

Abstract This paper presents the Trimming Technique™, an alternative to standard methods for improving manufacturing processes. The basic goal of this method is to reduce the number of necessary manufacturing operations by eliminating carefully selected operations. The functions of the eliminated operations are then redistributed among the remaining operations. The Trimming Technique™ includes function analysis of the manufacturing process and iterative procedures for eliminating operations according to sets of conditions that are specific to each type of operation. The Technique is implemented in TechOptimizer™, a computer-aided invention software package developed by Invention Machine Corporation. The application of the Trimming Technique is demonstrated by a specific example — a process for the manufacture of crystalline soap.

Through an alliance established in 1992 between Westinghouse Electric Corporation and Rolls-Royce plc, a program has been implemented that will bring the industrial Trent aero engine to the power generation marketplace. The Rolls-Royce Trent has been initially sized at 50 MW, with a development potential to higher power ratings, and is offered by Westinghouse as a complete power generation package, the “Trent EconoPac”. The Trent EconoPac sets a new performance standard in the industry with a nominal simple cycle efficiency of 42 percent. It is also ideal for combined cycle and cogeneration applications; a net combined cycle power of 63 MW at 52 percent efficiency can be developed. This paper describes the Trent industrial engine and EconoPac and reviews the development program with emphasis on unique features that benefit the power plant operator.

In 2001, the Compressor and Pump Station Technical Committee (CAPSTC) recognized the importance of cylinder level sensing and control to minimize NOx emissions while maintaining optimum engine performance, therefore, a CAPSTC member brought the concept of ion sense to the committee as an alternative to fiber optic pressure sensors for continuous combustion performance monitoring. Derived from automotive technology, ion sense utilizes post ignition ionization measurements from a standard spark plug to monitor the combustions process. Based on successful feasibility tests at Colorado State University�s (CSU) GMV-4, the commercialization team focused their efforts on developing a product for Open Combustion Chamber (OCC) Two Stroke Cycle (2SC) lean burn engines. By 2010, the commercialization team of Advanced Engine Technologies Corporation (AETC), Altronic, and Mecel developed commercial hardware and conducted extensive mapping and long term testing on three different 2SC OCC engines operated by three different companies.

1.1 Resumen macroeconómico En el segundo trimestre la economía enfrentó varios choques, principalmente de oferta y de costos, la mayoría de los cuales no fueron anticipados, o los previstos fueron más persistentes de lo esperado, y que en conjunto interrumpieron la recuperación de la actividad económica observada a comienzos de año y llevaron la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta. La inflación básica (sin alimentos ni regulados: SAR) aumentó, pero se mantuvo baja y acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico. A comienzos de abril se inició una tercera ola de pandemia, más acentuada y prolongada que la anterior, con un elevado costo en vidas humanas y algún impacto negativo en la recuperación económica. Entre mayo y mediados de junio los bloqueos de las carreteras y los problemas de orden público tuvieron un fuerte efecto negativo sobre la actividad económica y la inflación. Se estima que la magnitud de estos dos choques combinados habría generado una caída en niveles en el producto interno bruto (PIB) con respecto al primer trimestre del año. Adicionalmente, los bloqueos causaron un aumento significativo de los precios de los alimentos. A estos choques se sumaron los efectos acumulados de la disrupción global en algunas cadenas de valor y el incremento en los fletes internacionales que desde finales de 2020 vienen generando restricciones de oferta y aumentos de costos. Todos estos factores, que afectaron principalmente el índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) de bienes y de alimentos, explicaron la mayor parte del error de pronóstico del equipo técnico y el aumento de la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta del 3 %. El incremento en la inflación básica y de los precios de los regulados fue acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico, y se explica principalmente por la eliminación de varios alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. A todo esto se suma la mayor percepción de riesgo soberano y las presiones al alza que esto implica sobre el costo de financiamiento externo y la tasa de cambio. A pesar de los fuertes choques negativos, el crecimiento económico esperado para la primera mitad del año (9,1%), es significativamente mayor que lo proyectado en el informe de abril (7,1%), signo de una economía más dinámica que se recuperaría más rápido de lo previsto. Desde finales de 2020 las diferentes cifras de actividad económica han mostrado un crecimiento mayor que el esperado. Esto sugiere que los efectos negativos sobre el producto de las recurrentes olas de contagio estarían siendo cada vez menos fuertes y duraderos. No obstante, la tercera ola de contagio del Covid-19, y en mayor medida los bloqueos a las vías y los problemas de orden público, habrían generado una caída del PIB durante el segundo trimestre, frente al primero. Pese a lo anterior, los datos del índice de seguimiento a la economía (ISE) de abril y mayo han resultado mayores que lo esperado, y las nuevas cifras de actividad económica sectoriales sugieren que el impacto negativo de la pandemia sobre el producto se sigue moderando, en un entorno de menores restricciones a la movilidad y de mayor avance en el ritmo de vacunación. Los registros de transporte de carga (junio) y la demanda de energía no regulada (julio), entre otros, indican una recuperación importante después de los bloqueos en mayo. Con todo lo anterior, el incremento anual del PIB del segundo trimestre se habría situado alrededor del 17,3 % (antes 15,8 %), explicado en gran parte por una base baja de comparación. Para todo 2021 el equipo técnico incrementó su proyección de crecimiento desde un 6 % hasta el 7,5 %. Este pronóstico, que está rodeado de una incertidumbre inusualmente elevada, supone que no se presentarán problemas de orden público y que posibles nuevas olas de contagio del Covid-19 no tendrán efectos negativos adicionales sobre la actividad económica. Frente al pronóstico del informe pasado, la recuperación de la demanda externa, los niveles de precios de algunos bienes básicos que exporta el país y la dinámica de las remesas de trabajadores han sido mejores que las esperadas y seguirían impulsando la recuperación del ingreso nacional en lo que resta del año. A esto se sumaría la aún amplia liquidez internacional, la aceleración en el proceso de vacunación y las bajas tasas de interés, factores que continuarían favoreciendo la actividad económica. La mejor dinámica del primer semestre, que llevó a una revisión al alza en el crecimiento de todos los componentes del gasto, continuaría hacia adelante y, antes de lo esperado en abril, la economía recuperaría los niveles de producción de 2019 a finales de 2021. El pronóstico continúa incluyendo efectos de corto plazo sobre la demanda agregada de una reforma tributaria de magnitud similar a la proyectada por el Gobierno. Con todo eso, en el escenario central de este informe, el pronóstico de crecimiento para 2021 es del 7,5 % y para 2022 del 3,1 %. A pesar de esto, el nivel de la actividad económica seguiría siendo inferior a su potencial. La mejora en estas proyecciones, sin embargo, está rodeada de una alta incertidumbre. En junio la inflación anual (3,63 %) aumentó más de lo esperado debido al comportamiento del grupo de alimentos, mientras que la inflación básica (1,87 %) fue similar a la proyectada. En lo que resta del año el mayor nivel del IPC de alimentos persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta. A finales de 2022 la inflación total y básica retornarían a tasas cercanas al 3 %, en un entorno de desaceleración del IPC de alimentos y de menores excesos de capacidad productiva. En los meses recientes el aumento en los precios internacionales de los fletes y de los bienes agrícolas, y las mayores exportaciones de carne y el ciclo ganadero han ejercido presiones al alza sobre el precio de los alimentos, principalmente de los procesados. A estas fuerzas persistentes se sumaron los bloqueos de las vías nacionales y los problemas de orden público en varias ciudades registrados en mayo y parte de junio, los cuales se reflejaron en una fuerte restricción en la oferta y en un aumento anual no esperado del IPC de alimentos (8,52 %). El grupo de regulados (5,93 %) también se aceleró, debido a la baja base de comparación en los precios de la gasolina y a la disolución de parte de los alivios a las tarifas de servicios públicos otorgados en 2020. Como se proyectaba, la inflación SAR repuntó al 1,87 %, debido a la reactivación de los impuestos indirectos de algunos bienes y servicios eliminados un año atrás, y por las presiones al alza que ejercieron los alimentos sobre las comidas fuera del hogar (CFH), entre otros. En lo que resta del año se espera que el aumento en los alimentos perecederos se revierta, siempre y cuando no se registren nuevos bloqueos duraderos a las vías nacionales. El mayor nivel de precios de los alimentos procesados persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta a finales de año. La inflación SAR continuaría con una tendencia creciente, en la medida en que los excesos de capacidad productiva se sigan cerrando y registraría un aumento transitorio en marzo de 2022, debido principalmente al restablecimiento del impuesto al consumo en las CFH. Con todo esto, para finales de 2021 y 2022 se estima una inflación total del 4,1 % y 3,1 %, y una inflación básica del 2,6 % y 3,2 %, respectivamente. El comportamiento conjunto de los precios del IPC SAR, junto con continuas sorpresas al alza en la actividad económica, son interpretados por el equipo técnico como señales de amplios excesos de capacidad productiva de la economía. Estos persistirían en los siguientes dos años, al final de los cuales la brecha del producto se cerraría. El mayor crecimiento económico sugiere una brecha del producto menos negativa que la estimada hace un trimestre. Sin embargo, el comportamiento de la inflación básica, especialmente en servicios, indica que el PIB potencial se ha recuperado de forma sorpresiva y que los excesos de capacidad siguen siendo amplios, con una demanda agregada afectada de forma persistente. Esta interpretación encuentra soporte en el mercado laboral, en donde persiste un desempleo alto y la recuperación de los empleos perdidos se estancó. Adicionalmente, los aumentos en la inflación en buena medida están explicados por choques de oferta y de costos y por la disolución de algunos alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. Los pronósticos de crecimiento y de inflación descritos son coherentes con una brecha del producto que se cierra más rápido y es menos negativa en todo el horizonte de pronóstico con respecto al informe de abril. No obstante, la incertidumbre sobre los excesos de capacidad es muy alta y es un riesgo sobre el pronóstico. Las perspectivas de las cuentas fiscales de Colombia se deterioraron, Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings (S&P) y Fitch Ratings (Fitch) redujeron su calificación crediticia, los bloqueos y problemas de orden público afectaron el producto y el país enfrentó una nueva ola de contagios de Covid-19 más acentuada y prolongada que las pasadas. Todo lo anterior se ha reflejado en un aumento de las primas de riesgo y en una depreciación del peso frente al dólar. Esto ha ocurrido en un entorno favorable de ingresos externos. Los precios internacionales del petróleo, del café y de otros bienes básicos que exporta el país aumentaron y han contribuido a la recuperación de los términos de intercambio y del ingreso nacional, y han mitigado las presiones al alza sobre las primas de riesgo y la tasa de cambio. En el presente informe se incrementó el precio esperado del petróleo para 2021 a USD 68 por barril (antes USD 61 bl) y para 2022 a USD 66 bl (antes USD 60 bl). Esta mayor senda presenta una convergencia hacia precios menores que los observados recientemente, como resultado de una mayor oferta mundial esperada de petróleo, la cual más que compensaría el incremento en la demanda de este bien básico. Por ende, se supone que el aumento reciente de los precios tiene un carácter transitorio. En el escenario macroeconómico actual se espera que las condiciones financieras internacionales sean algo menos favorables, a pesar de la mejora en los ingresos externos por cuenta de una mayor demanda y unos precios del petróleo y de otros productos de exportación más altos. Frente al informe de abril el crecimiento de la demanda externa fue mejor que el esperado, y las proyecciones para 2021 y 2022 aumentaron del 5,2 % al 6,0 % y del 3,4 % al 3,5 %, respectivamente. En lo corrido del año las cifras de actividad económica muestran una demanda externa más dinámica de la esperada. En los Estados Unidos y China la recuperación del producto ha sido más rápida que la registrada en los países de la región. En estos últimos la reactivación económica ha estado limitada por los rebrotes del Covid-19, las limitaciones en la oferta de vacunas y el poco espacio fiscal para enfrentar la pandemia, entre otros factores. La buena dinámica en el comercio externo de bienes se ha dado en un entorno de deterioro en las cadenas de valor y de un aumento importante en los precios de las materias primas y en el costo de los fletes. En los Estados Unidos la inflación sorprendió al alza y su valor observado y esperado se mantiene por encima de la meta, al tiempo que se incrementó la proyección de crecimiento económico. Con esto, el inicio de la normalización de la política monetaria en ese país se daría antes de lo proyectado. En este informe se estima que el primer incremento en la tasa de interés de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos se dé a finales de 2022 (antes del primer trimestre de 2023). Para Colombia se supone una mayor prima de riesgo frente al informe de abril y se sigue esperando que presente una tendencia creciente, dada la acumulación de deuda pública y externa del país. Todo esto contribuiría a un incremento en el costo del financiamiento externo en el horizonte de pronóstico. La postura expansiva de la política monetaria sigue soportando unas condiciones financieras internas favorables. En el segundo trimestre la tasa de interés interbancaria y el índice bancario de referencia (IBR) se han mantenido acordes con la tasa de interés de política. Las tasas de interés promedio de captación y crédito continuaron históricamente bajas, a pesar de algunos incrementos observados a finales de junio. La cartera en moneda nacional detuvo su desaceleración anual y, entre marzo y junio, el crédito a los hogares se aceleró, principalmente para compra de vivienda. La recuperación de la cartera comercial y de los desembolsos a ese sector fue importante, y se alcanzó de nuevo el elevado saldo observado un año atrás, cuando las empresas requirieron niveles significativos de liquidez para enfrentar los efectos económicos de la pandemia. El riesgo de crédito aumentó, las provisiones se mantienes altas y algunos bancos han retirado de su balance una parte de su cartera vencida. No obstante, las utilidades del sistema financiero se han recuperado y sus niveles de liquidez y solvencia se mantienen por encima del mínimo regulatorio. A partir de este informe se implementará una nueva metodología para cuantificar y comunicar la incertidumbre que rodea los pronósticos del escenario macroeconómico central, en un entorno de política monetaria activa. Esta metodología se conoce como densidades predictivas (DP) y se explica en detalle en el Recuadro 1. Partiendo del balance de riesgos que contiene los principales factores que, de acuerdo con el juicio del equipo técnico, podrían afectar a la economía en el horizonte de pronóstico, la metodología DP produce distribuciones de probabilidad sobre el pronóstico de las principales variables (v. g.: crecimiento, inflación). Estas distribuciones reflejan el resultado de los posibles choques (a variables externas, precios y actividad económica) que podría recibir la economía y su transmisión, considerando la estructura económica y la respuesta de política monetaria en el futuro. En este sentido, permiten cuantificar la incertidumbre alrededor del pronóstico y su sesgo. El ejercicio DP muestra un sesgo a la baja en el crecimiento económico y en la brecha del producto, y al alza en la inflación. El balance de riesgos indica que las disyuntivas para la política monetaria serán potencialmente más complejas que lo contemplado en el pasado. Por el lado de las condiciones de financiamiento externo, se considera que el mayor riesgo es que se tornen un poco menos favorables, en un escenario en el cual la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos incremente con mayor prontitud su tasa de interés. Esto último, ante un crecimiento económico y del empleo mayor que el esperado en los Estados Unidos que genere presiones significativas sobre la inflación de ese país. A esto se suma la incertidumbre sobre el panorama fiscal en Colombia y sus efectos sobre la prima de riesgo y el costo del financiamiento externo. En el caso del crecimiento, la mayoría de los riesgos son a la baja, destacándose los efectos de la incertidumbre política y fiscal sobre las decisiones de consumo e inversión, la aparición de nuevas olas de contagio de la pandemia del Covid-19 y sus impactos sobre la actividad económica. En el caso de la inflación, se incorporó el riesgo de una mayor persistencia de los choques asociados con la disrupción de las cadenas de valor, mayores precios internacionales de las materias primas y de los alimentos, y una recuperación más lenta que la esperada de la cadena agrícola nacional afectada por los pasados bloqueos a las vías. Estos riesgos presionarían al alza principalmente los precios de los alimentos y de los bienes. Como principal riesgo a la baja se incluyó un alza de los arriendos menor que el esperado en el escenario central, explicada por una demanda débil y por una mayor oferta en 2022 dadas las altas ventas de vivienda observadas en el presente año. Con todo, el crecimiento económico presenta un sesgo a la baja y, con el 90 % de confianza, se encontraría entre un 6,1 % y 9,1 % para 2021 y entre el 0,5 % y 4,1 % para 2022. La brecha del producto tendría un sesgo a la baja, principalmente en 2022. El sesgo de la inflación es al alza, y se encontraría entre el 3,7 % y 4,9 % en 2021, y el 2,2 % y 4,7 % en 2022, con un 90 % de probabilidad. 1.2 Decisión de política monetaria En las reuniones de junio y julio la JDBR decidió mantener la tasa de política monetaria inalterada en 1,75 %.