Academic literature on the topic 'Spending behaviors'

Many college undergraduates lack basic financial management knowledge and skills while bearing ever increasing debt burdens upon graduation. In order to encourage students to become aware of their spending patterns and weigh those patterns against personal values, a self-monitoring project was implemented as a class activity. The resulting effect on financial behavior was examined. Analysis of participants’ self-reflection papers revealed that awareness of spending behaviors increased universally among participants, and a significant proportion of students spontaneously modified spending behaviors to more closely conform to personal values. Participants consistently reported the importance of a spending management tool in modifying spending behavior.

Recent studies in consumer behavior have focused on characteristics of a group of “compulsive consumers” and the urge to buy in a general population. However, little has been published on the assessment or treatment of dysfunctional spending behaviors. This article (1) sets forth a heuristic continuum of spending behaviors, (2) provides several case examples to illustrate the continuum, (3) offers suggestions for assessment and therapeutic intervention, and (4) sets forth an agenda for practice-based research on spending behaviors.

This study explores the antecedents and consequences of customer engagement behaviors in the Thai mobile network business. This study found that the approach to switching behavior and cross-buying behavior is connected to customer loyalty behaviors. However, the spending behaviors of customers may not be a good indicator of customer loyalty in the mobile network business because those who do not have the intention to switch to another brand do not necessarily increase their spending. In addition, most respondents are concerned with competitive promotional packages, which influence customer engagement behaviors. Hence, it was proposed that service quality and competitive promotional packages are antecedents to customer engagement behaviors and all these factors are important in explaining customer loyalty toward mobile network providers in Thailand.

Live streaming has enabled eSports to become more accessible, ranging from professionally organized tournaments to individuals hosting from their bedroom. While different aspects of eSports have been investigated in separate contexts, in this article, we report findings of two survey studies to explore eSports as a holistic media ecosystem that includes playing, streaming, viewing, and spending. Study 1 looks at cross-platform patterns between playing and spending within the game as well as between viewing, streaming, and spending on live streaming platforms in the context of Fortnite. Study 2 examines the relationships between viewing and spending patterns on live streaming platforms. Results indicate that playing, viewing, and in-game spending are strongly related. Yet none of these behavioral metrics explain why people spend money on live streaming platforms to support streamers. Rather, psychological factors such as emotional attachment to the streamer and appreciation of the streamers’ talents are what drive streamer support.

AbstractObjective: The study aims to analyze obesogenic behavioral patterns of adolescents living in Mureş County, Romania, as well as to establish a relationship between these behaviors and their Body Mass Index (BMI), in an attempt to provide effective prevention strategies for obesity.Material and Methods: 153 students between 9th to 12th grade, aged between 14 and 19 years old, from the Vocational and Art Highschool of Târgu Mureş were included in the study. All the candidates filled out an evaluation questionnaire of lifestyle and risky behaviors. The analyzed data were sex, age, residence, BMI and risky eating behavior defined as the consumption of carbohydrates (bread, potatoes, sweets), sodas, junk food, alcohol (wine, distilled beverages, beer), beer separately, level of physical activity (school and extra-school sports activities), sedentary behaviors (≥2 hours/day in front of a screen: personal computer-PC and television-TV), and spending ≥2 hours/day separately on the PC and on the TV.Results: A statistically significant association was observed between BMI and consumption of fast-food, tobacco, beer, sedentary behavior and spending ≥2 hours/day in front of the PC. Moreover, there was a statistically significant difference between the BMI values of adolescents presenting all studied risk behaviors compared to those who did not.Conclusions: Obesity among adolescents from Mureş County is influenced by lifestyle choices like fast-food, tobacco, beer, sedentary behavior and spending ≥2 hours/day in front of the PC.

In examining how stress influences consumer saving and spending, the authors propose that consumers who experience a stressful situation allocate their resources strategically to gain control of their environment. A series of studies shows that this strategic allocation of resources occurs in two ways. Consumers experiencing stress may show increased saving behavior, which assures them that monetary resources will be available when needed. Alternatively, consumers experiencing stress may show increased spending behavior, directed specifically toward products that the consumer perceives to be necessities and that allow for control in an otherwise uncontrollable environment. This conceptualization and the related findings can inform assessments of when stress will lead to beneficial or impulsive consumer behaviors.

Gender differences in consumer behaviors of college students in the US resulting from the move to online education as a result of a stay-at-home order relative to the pandemic are investigated. The findings of a survey of students who were forced to attend online classes due to the Covid-19 pandemic are reported. The students in the study had experienced two semesters of online education resulting from Louisiana’s emergency health order encouraging people to social distance, take precautionary health measures, reduce travel and basically stay home as much as possible. The impact of Covid-19 on retailing and spending habits of college students is discussed. Findings of consumer behavior impacts relative to gender are presented. The analysis revealed differences existed between male and female students in their spending patterns and consumer behaviors.

The aim of this paper is to define expenditure and revenue decentralization indicators for Polish municipalities and to analyze if and how the limits of spending and revenue autonomy influence local government spending behaviors. The expenditure decentralization is difficult to measure, that is why the analysis of the effects of limits on spending autonomy are less common in the literature than those which relate to the revenue autonomy. In this paper, I propose indicators of revenue but also expenditure decentralization for Polish municipalities. Using statistical analysis and econometric panel analysis for rural municipalities in years 2000-2014 I study if and how these indicators explain local spending policy. I focus on spending for culture using median voter demand framework. Expenditure for culture is a small part of local budgets, but vital from the social point of view. Municipalities in Poland are important creators of local cultural life, which is especially important in less developed or peripheral regions, where citizens do not have access to private cultural institutions. I present that limits in local governments spending and revenue autonomy influences the local spending behaviors. I found that those limits caused not necessarily effective cost minimizing and create the important problem of horizontal equity. At the same time in less autonomous municipalities spending are less related to citizens demand- so there are problems to attend allocative efficiency. My study presents that the problem of the effects of incomplete expenditure decentralization is very important but poorly recognized in the literature.

The purpose of this study was to examine the budgeting behaviors of traditional-aged upper-division college students (juniors and seniors). Budgeting behaviors were operationally defined as students' spending and financial planning behaviors. These behaviors were studied by tracking participant expenditures and income of three weeks and administering electronic survey questions. The study was conducted at a large, public, research university, and was designed to answer the following research questions:

1. How do traditional-aged upper-division students spend their money?

2. What are the budgeting behaviors of traditional-aged upper-division students?

3. Are there differences in budgeting behaviors between traditional-aged upper-division students who live off campus and those who live on campus?

4. Are there gender differences between budgeting behaviors of traditional-aged upper-division students?

A sample of 32 college juniors and seniors who had moved directly from high school to college participated in the study. Participants tracked their expenses and income of a three-week period using computerized spreadsheets. These data were analyzed to determine participants' spending behaviors and to examine differences by gender and place of residence. Participants also responded to five electronic survey questions that investigated their budgeting behaviors. Responses from these questions were analyzed to identify themes about the budgeting behaviors of college juniors and seniors.

The results of this study provided some interesting information about college students' budgeting behaviors. Several conclusions were drawn. First, students failed to budget effectively because they spent more than they earned. Across all groups, students' expenditures totaled more than their income. Second, students' comments regarding their budgeting behaviors were found to reflect either good or poor ratings. This suggests that while some students seem to have well-developed financial management skills, others do not. Third, off-campus students differ from on-campus students because they have more budgeting experience. Off-campus students seemed to have developed these budgeting skills by paying monthly bills associated with off-campus living. Finally, female students spent money on clothes and beauty items, relied on gifts as sources of income, and seemed more anxious about budgeting than male students. These kinds of behaviors may reinforce certain stereotypical beliefs about men and women.
Master of Arts

Thesis (Master of Education)--University of Cincinnati, 2005.
Title from electronic thesis title page (viewed Jul. 11, 2006). Includes abstract. Keywords: Smoking bans; secondhand smoke; smoke-free. Includes bibliographical references.

In this paper, I replicate Erikson and Palfrey (2000) who propose that the simultaneity problem in measuring the effects of candidate spending can be resolved by restricting the sample to close elections. Vote-on-spending effects, which vary with the expected closeness of the election outcome in a systematic way, determine the extent of simultaneity bias. The simultaneity bias becomes progressively more severe as the anticipated vote margin decreases, plaguing the estimates of spending-on-vote effects on the full sample. In the range of a 50-50 expected vote, however, the vote-on-spending effects approach zero. Thus, by restricting the sample to extremely close races, I obtain unbiased estimates of candidate spending effects. I then extend their model using data that includes elections that took place after a pair of major campaign finance reforms: the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 and the Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission ruling of 2010. The BCRA heightens the perceived effectiveness of candidate spending by removing the hidden substitute for candidates’ campaign funds, namely, soft money. After the Citizens United ruling, however, as soft money starts to play a crucial role in electoral campaigns, candidates’ own funds matter less. The ruling appears to amplify incumbency advantage, perhaps because incumbents take advantage of their non-monetary incumbency benefits to attract soft money donations. This paper contributes to the ongoing debate in academia over the causal connection between candidate spending and vote share by presenting evidence that campaign spending has significant effects on election outcomes.

The aim of this study is to research the possibility of using customer transactional data to identify spending patterns among individuals, that in turn can be used to assess creditworthiness. Two different approaches to unsupervised clustering are used and compared in the study, one being K-means and the other an hierarchical approach. The features used in both clustering techniques are extracted from customer transactional data collected from the customers banks. Internal cluster validity indices and credit scores, calculated by credit institutes, are used to evaluate the results of the clustering techniques. Based on the experiments in this report, we believe that the approach exhibit interesting results and that further research with evaluation on a larger dataset is desired. Proposed future work is to append additional features to the models and study the effect on the resulting clusters.
Målet med detta arbete är att studera möjligheten att använda data om individers kontotransaktioner för att identifiera utgiftsmönster hos individer, som i sin tur kan användas för att utvärdera kreditvärdighet. Två olika tillvägagångssätt som använder oövervakad klustring (eng. unsupervised clustering) används och utvärderas i rapporten, den ena är K-means och den andra är en hierarkisk teknik. De attribut (eng. features) som används i de båda klustrings teknikerna utvinns från data som innehåller kontotransaktioner och som erhålls från banker. Interna kluster värde index (eng. cluster validity indices) och individers riskprognoser, som beräknats av ett kreditinstitut, används för att utvärdera resultaten från klustrings teknikerna. Vi menar att resultaten som presenteras i denna rapport visar att målet till viss del uppnåtts, men att mer data och forskning krävs. Vidare forskning som föreslås är att lägga till fler attribut (eng. features) till modellerna och utvärdera effekten på de resulterande klusterna.

While previous research has examined the effect of income on happiness, we suggest that how people spend their money may be as important for their well-being as how much they earn. Specifically, we hypothesized that spending money on others may have a more positive impact on well-being than spending money on oneself. We found converging evidence for this hypothesis in a nationally representative survey (Study 1), a longitudinal study of windfall spending (Study 2), and an experimental study in which participants were randomly assigned to spend money on themselves or others (Study 3). We also found that people believe that spending on themselves, as opposed to others, will make them happier (Study 4) and that happier people were more likely to spend on others and experience higher happiness as result (Study 5). These results demonstrate that spending money on others may facilitate the translation of wealth into well-being.

This research analyzes the business opportunities created by the "Buy American" movement. Current literature reflects a consensus that most consumers have an initial bias in favor of purchasing domestic products. However, domestic production is frequently more costly than producing abroad. In order for domestic production to increase a firm's profit, consumer willingness to pay more for domestic products is prerequisite. This study investigates whether that prerequisite is satisfied. By collecting revealed preference data from multiple locations, this study finds that, on average, domestic products do carry a price premium over similar foreign imports.

Decentralised cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin offer a new paradigm of electronic payment systems that do not rely on a trusted third-party. Instead, the peers forming the network handle the task traditionally left to the third-party, preventing attackers from spending twice the same resource, and do so in a publicly verifiable way through Bitcoin's main innovation, the blockchain. However, due to a lack of synchrony in the network, Bitcoin peers may transiently have conflicting views of the system: the blockchain is forked. This can happen purely by accident but attackers can also voluntarily create forks to mount other attacks on the system. In this work, we describe Bitcoin and its underlying blockchain protocol; we introduce a formal model to capture the normal operations of the system as well as forks and double-spending attacks. We use it to define Bitcoin's fundamental properties in terms of safety, liveness and validity. We present the current state of the system: first, we analyse some of the most prominent works that academia has produced between 2008 and 2016, as well as some promising leads to improve the system; then, we use the results of a measurement campaign to show that the size of the network is relatively stable because join and leave operations compensate each other, and that blocks propagate to most of the network in a matter of seconds. We further compare our results to those usually accepted by the community. We introduce a Bitcoin network simulator that we have implemented and present the experiment we have performed to validate it. Finally, we propose a modification to Bitcoin's operations that can prevent double-spending attacks and forks without giving up on its main ideological principles, decentralisation and the absence of source of trust.

Abstract This research is based on the phenomenon of Generation Z’s life as the next generation who spends their expenses sparingly due to several current global threats such as the depletion of global resources, the climate crisis, to the Covid-19 pandemic. This frugal lifestyle behavior is characterized differently and for different reasons over time. Therefore, it is necessary to understand frugal living and its relationship with Gen Z as frugal consumers’ acceptance which is also the study’s goal. Data analysis from a survey of 100 student respondents was conducted. Six dimensions of frugality studied were planning and control of spending, usefulness, deals as temptations, bargain-hunting tendency, the triumph of a good deal, and durability. The results of this study will show the relationship between frugality and behavioral intention to use.

AbstractThe Covid-19 pandemic has had a very high impact on students’ monthly expenses. This is indicated by a decrease in pocket money, changes in the source of pocket money income, and a significant change in student spending. This study investigates the effect of family financial socialization on financial behavior mediated by self-efficacy. The survey was conducted online to 157 private and public undergraduate and postgraduate students in Indonesia, including questions about demographics, family financial socialization, financial behavior, and self-efficacy. The research model consists of three hypotheses tested using structural equation modeling. The results show that family financial socialization has a positive effect on financial behavior directly. Family financial socialization has a positive effect on financial behavior indirectly through self-efficacy.

AbstractRobotics researchers are spending many efforts in developing methodologies and techniques that allow robots to work side by side with humans, with the aim of improving the manufacturing processes. Such a level of interaction does not require just the safe coexistence in a common space, which is something completely achieved by the current state of the art. In scenarios like co-assemblies, humans and robots have to execute alternating tasks, with the aim of realizing a set of possible finite products. This requires the robots to adapt, synchronize and actively cooperate with the humans. This work will show that this goal can be reached by providing the cobots with three main abilities: recognizing the human behaviour, predicting the human actions and optimally planning the robotic ones.

AbstractUnsupervised learning is a subfield of machine learning that focuses on learning the structure of data without making use of labels. This implies a different set of learning algorithms than those used for supervised learning, and consequently, also prevents a direct transposition of Explainable AI (XAI) methods from the supervised to the less studied unsupervised setting. In this chapter, we review our recently proposed ‘neuralization-propagation’ (NEON) approach for bringing XAI to workhorses of unsupervised learning such as kernel density estimation and k-means clustering. NEON first converts (without retraining) the unsupervised model into a functionally equivalent neural network so that, in a second step, supervised XAI techniques such as layer-wise relevance propagation (LRP) can be used. The approach is showcased on two application examples: (1) analysis of spending behavior in wholesale customer data and (2) analysis of visual features in industrial and scene images.

AbstractThe online platform is a platform of the future, both in the world and in Bosnia and Herzegovina. “The World Without a Label” is the first counseling center of this kind in BiH, because it brings together experts from behavioral, psychological, and psychiatric problems in one place. As a special problem of sociopolitical context is victims of sexual violence, war rape crimes. A case study shows a young boy is accompanied by a parent due to behavioral problems manifested by extremely bad social interaction with peers and for spending most of his free time on his computer playing video games. The boy’s mother had previously been treated in a psychiatric clinic’s day hospital, where she shared her own trauma of rape in group psychotherapy and the painful problems she faced in her early 20s, where Republika Srpska Army soldiers systematically raped captured Bosniaks. The father is a former member of the Bosnian army, and he himself had lot of war traumas. Experience in working in the Counseling Centers like this one, as well as with all the scientific and technological achievements, we have enabled the development of procedures for solving mental health problems through online platforms and standardization of those procedures.

Abstract This research proposes a framework for designing tangibility into abstract interactions such as managing financial resources, health concerns and environmental impacts. A case study of the tangibility within cashless payments is presented, which adopted this framework to design, fabricate and test a tangible interaction in digital transactions. Digital transactions can significantly influence a consumer’s spending habits and decisions, commonly leading to increased expenditure compared to cash transactions. Several psychological mechanisms which influence conscientious spending due to differing payment methods were analyzed and employed to design a prototype incorporating a tangible interaction that is relevant to the consumer’s spending process. It is proposed that re-introducing tangibility into the payment process can increase one’s psychological ownership over their financial resources and purchased item, as well as the aversion towards paying. Results from the experiments show that the interaction enhances psychological ownership over digital currency but remain inconclusive on behavior change. The broader implications of enhancing tangibility for intangible objects is discussed.

We consider non-cooperative facility location games where both facilities and clients act strategically and heavily influence each other. This contrasts established game-theoretic facility location models with non-strategic clients that simply select the closest opened facility. In our model, every facility location has a set of attracted clients and each client has a set of shopping locations and a weight that corresponds to its spending capacity. Facility agents selfishly select a location for opening their facility to maximize the attracted total spending capacity, whereas clients strategically decide how to distribute their spending capacity among the opened facilities in their shopping range. We focus on a natural client behavior similar to classical load balancing: our selfish clients aim for a distribution that minimizes their maximum waiting time for getting serviced, where a facility’s waiting time corresponds to its total attracted client weight. We show that subgame perfect equilibria exist and we give almost tight constant bounds on the Price of Anarchy and the Price of Stability, which even hold for a broader class of games with arbitrary client behavior. Since facilities and clients influence each other, it is crucial for the facilities to anticipate the selfish clients’ behavior when selecting their location. For this, we provide an efficient algorithm that also implies an efficient check for equilibrium. Finally, we show that computing a socially optimal facility placement is NP-hard and that this result holds for all feasible client weight distributions.

The aim of the paper is to analyze the impacts of the quality of public spending and institutional change on the use of oil royalties. The related research is based on the (re)definition of concepts that are crucial for scholars in public administration. The debate on their utilization involves social and environmental issues, not limited to economic growth. Given the current economic crises faced by governments, there is a more significant limitation on public resources available by local governments. Therefore, one should not ignore the window of opportunity that has opened to give due attention to the quality of public spending. The research has also adopted the New Institutionalism theory that has as a premise that the institutions exert influence on the behavior of actors and on the political decisions. As a result, it is concluded that there is path dependence. The arguments of path dependence and increasing returns are used to explain the continuities. In the institutional analysis, the concept of path dependence helps to understand the possible behavior of economic agents. Thus, in this context, the economy does not represent an increase in the population’s quality of life, and it is necessary to build a work methodology that involves the knowledge of local needs.

This paper outlines an idea of creatively incentivizing home-owners to conserve electricity through a socially competitive lottery-based rewards system. The core idea of this work is in leveraging the power of social network influence to make consumers participate and compete in a lottery so that the resulting engagement consistently enhances the population’s energy spending awareness. The potential value of such a system in generating energy and monetary savings/revenue is investigated via simulation of social influence processes in an agent based simulation framework. The study encompasses three analysis cases: a lottery system with no communication between consumers, a system with the added social influence, and a “fall-back” scenario where people may return to their old habits of not conserving electricity while still communicating among themselves. To model these analysis cases, a standard independent cascade model is employed with influence success thresholds varied between 1% and 10%. The paper concludes by summarizing the simulation results. Pertinent aspects such as generation of lottery prize money, and expected impact on energy savings is also discussed.

Pandemic is an external shock that influenced behavior of con­sumers across the world. During the pandemic, there were apparent chang­es in purchasing patterns in the market given the uncertainty in the markets. The uncertainty in markets generally leads to caution in spending and en­couragement of saving. Another major driver of the change of behavior was the introduction of various anti-pandemic rules and lockdowns. Restrictions led to deferred consumption which was apparent in the global economy in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. This paper provides an insight into con­sumer motivation in the digital economy and the changes associated with such behavior in the pandemic and post-pandemic era. The nature and characteristics of digital business models were essential during the pandem­ic not just because of the reduction of transaction cost and thus higher effi­ciency but also because of the necessity of social distancing.

Despite increased efforts to improve safety in recent years (e.g., the Focus Cities Program in California), California continues to have a high rate of pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities. Currently, the state currently lacks a cohesive messaging strategy to improve behaviors related to pedestrian and cyclist traffic safety practices. To fulfill this need, this research showcases the differential effect of message framing on attitudes and intended behaviors related to pedestrian and cyclists traffic safety practices. This project investigated factors & risky behaviors contributing to accidents involving vulnerable road users, preventive measures to decrease accidents involving vulnerable road users, and more. The qualitative analysis presented a significant lack of coherent, long-term, evidence-based communication strategies that aimed at enhancing the safety of vulnerable road users in California. Quantitatively, this research also experimentally investigated various messages, employing different time horizons and regulatory focus message framings. Findings indicate that the messages with a limited time horizon tend to be associated with better safety perceptions and attitudes than messages with an expansive time horizon. California transportation authorities, professionals, and advocacy groups will be able to use this information to effectively allocate the communication effort and spending to induce attitudinal and behavioral change that can impact the safety of active transportation modes.

Despite increased efforts to improve safety in recent years (e.g., the Focus Cities Program in California), California continues to have a high rate of pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities. Currently, the state currently lacks a cohesive messaging strategy to improve behaviors related to pedestrian and cyclist traffic safety practices. To fulfill this need, this research showcases the differential effect of message framing on attitudes and intended behaviors related to pedestrian and cyclists traffic safety practices. This project investigated factors & risky behaviors contributing to accidents involving vulnerable road users, preventive measures to decrease accidents involving vulnerable road users, and more. The qualitative analysis presented a significant lack of coherent, long-term, evidence-based communication strategies that aimed at enhancing the safety of vulnerable road users in California. Quantitatively, this research also experimentally investigated various messages, employing different time horizons and regulatory focus message framings. Findings indicate that the messages with a limited time horizon tend to be associated with better safety perceptions and attitudes than messages with an expansive time horizon. California transportation authorities, professionals, and advocacy groups will be able to use this information to effectively allocate the communication effort and spending to induce attitudinal and behavioral change that can impact the safety of active transportation modes.

If you could ask 275 senior executive leaders about how to lead change, what would they have to say? What if they talked about the most important factors for success, what you should do more of, do less of, or avoid all together? What if their experiences could help you lead change in your organization and provide an early warning system to avoid failure? Do we have your attention? If you are a leader facing complex business challenges in your organization that require changes in the way people have always done things, we offer the following insights from the senior executives we asked about their experiences in leading change: 1. Change yourself. Leading change successfully means spending time outside of your comfort zone. As the individual leading an initiative you must change your mindset, actions, and behaviors. 2. Don’t go it alone. Leading change is a team activity. People come together driven by a compelling, and frequently communicated, message about why we are changing. 3. Know the signs . Recognize the early warning signs that indicate an initiative is starting to derail.

This paper studies whether changes in the composition of public spending affect the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations. Based on a sample of 44 developing countries and 26 advanced economies during 1980-2019, results show that while fiscal consolidations tend to be on average, contractionary, the size of the output fall depends on the behavior of public investment vis-a-vis public consumption during the fiscal adjustment, with heterogeneous responses growing over time. When public investment is penalized relative to public consumption and thus, its share in public expenditures decreases, a 1 percent of GDP consolidation reduces output by 0.7 percent within three years of the fiscal shock. In contrast, safeguarding public investment from budget cuts vis-a-vis public consumption can neutralize the contractionary effects of fiscal adjustments on impact, and can even spur output growth over the medium term. The component of GDP that mostly drives the heterogeneity between both types of adjustments is private investment. The results hold up to a number of robust-ness tests, including alternative identification strategies of fiscal shocks. The findings have policy implications for the design of fiscal adjustment strategies to protect economic growth as countries recover from the coronavirus pandemic.consolidation reduces output by 0.7 percent within three years of the fiscal shock. In contrast, safeguarding public investment from budget cuts vis-a-vis public consumption can neutralize the contractionary effects of fiscal adjustments on impact, and can even spur output growth over the medium term. The component of GDP that mostly drives the heterogeneity between both types of adjustments is private investment. The results hold up to a number of robustness tests, including alternative identification strategies of fiscal shocks. The findings have policy implications for the design of fiscal adjustment strategies to protect economic growth as countries recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

How can entities responsible for public procurement more reliably detect collusion and other irregular behavior? Most of the existing red flag tools are based on ex post analysis of public procurement data and are not integrated into national procurement systems. This does not allow them to identify irregularities in a timely manner, negatively affecting the efficiency and transparency of public spending. This document describes the red flags solution implemented in Paraguay, which contributes to solving these problems. It combines rule-based and machine learning algorithms to provide public officials with accurate, real-time information to reliably detect irregularities in the procurement process, without reducing efficiency.

This paper examines the effect of intergovernmental fiscal transfers on the fiscal behaviour of local governments in Ethiopia for the period 2004-2018. The empirical findings suggest that central government grants bolster state-level employment and expenditure. However, grants from the central government to states do not crowd out state-level revenue collection. Hence, this paper argues that fiscal decentralisation in Ethiopia has mostly, at least in theory, taken the form of devolution of the power to tax and spend public money. However, on average state-level revenue can only finance up to 26 per cent of their annual expenditure. As a result, fiscal federalism in Ethiopia appears to be a form of delegation of spending responsibilities. It has to be considered in the context of a decentralised tax system, but with a transfer scheme and political hierarchy. The results are found to be robust to alternative econometric estimation techniques.

This report summarizes the results from the twelfth year of a national public opinion survey asking U.S. adults questions related to their views on federal transportation taxes. A nationally-representative sample of 2,516 respondents completed the online survey from February 5 to 23, 2021. The questions test public opinions about raising the federal gas tax rate, replacing the federal gas tax with a new mileage fee, and imposing a mileage fee just on commercial travel. In addition to asking directly about support for these tax options, the survey collected data on respondents’ views on the quality of their local transportation system, their priorities for federal transportation spending, their knowledge about gas taxes, their views on privacy and equity matters related to mileage fees, travel behavior, and standard sociodemographic variables. This large set of variables is used to identify personal characteristics and opinions correlated with support for the tax options. Key findings include that large majorities supported transportation improvements across modes and wanted to see the federal government work towards making the transportation system well maintained, safe, and equitable, as well as to reduce the system’s impact on climate change. Findings related to gas taxes include that only 2% of respondents knew that the federal gas tax rate had not been raised in more than 20 years, and 71% of respondents supported increasing the federal gas tax by 10 cents per gallon if the revenue would be dedicated to maintenance. With respect to mileage fees, roughly half of respondents supported some form of mileage fee, whether that was assessed on all travel or just on commercial travel, 62% believe that low-income drivers should pay a reduced mileage fee rate, and 52% think that electric vehicles should pay a lower rate than gas and diesel vehicles. The analysis of trends across the survey series, which has run from 2010 to 2011, shows that support for both higher gas taxes and a hypothetical new mileage fee has risen slowly but steadily, and Americans’ experience with COVID over the past year has not disrupted those trends. Finally, support for the tax and fee options varies mostly by most personal characteristics, but there are frequently large differences correlated with age, community type, and political affiliation.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.