Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Species distribution modelling (SDM)'
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Urvois, Teddy. "Structure génétique et modélisation de la distribution des populations de deux espèces invasives de Xylosandrus (Scolytinae - Xyleborini) : deux espèces proches aux histoires d’invasion différentes." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Orléans, 2022. https://theses.univ-orleans.fr/prive/accesESR/2022ORLE1031_va.pdf.
Xylosandrus compactus and X. crassiusculus are two ambrosia beetles originating from Southeastern Asia and invasive on several continents, whose atypical biology and ecology favour invasion. During this thesis, a multidisciplinary approach was used to (i) identify the origin of invasive populations and their invasion routes and (ii) determine the areas in which they could spread and establish. Invasion routes were traced using a mitochondrial marker and genomic markers, and the suitable areas for each species were identified using species distribution models (SDM).Despite their ecological and phylogenetic proximity, the two species have different invasion histories. Two lineages were identified in X. compactus, one originating from India or Vietnam, who invaded Africa, and the other from the Shanghai area, who independently invaded the American-Pacific and Europe. X. crassiusculus comprises two very diverging clusters, mostly allopatric and with different ecological niches. Cluster 1 independently invaded Pacific islands and Africa. Cluster 2 is responsible for the invasion in the Americas, Europe, Africa and Oceania, with several independent introductions from multiple sources (including bridgehead, where an invasion occurs from an area already invaded) followed by intra-continental dispersion. For both species, SDM showed suitable areas where the pests are not present yet and which could be invaded. We expect an impact of climate change on their future potential distributions. Conversely, the recent evolution of climate is not responsible for their recent invasion in Europe, which has already been suitable for decades
Fournier, Alice. "Modéliser et prédire les invasions biologiques." Thesis, Université Paris-Saclay (ComUE), 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018SACLS144/document.
Biologicals invasions, the second cause of biodiversity loss worldwide, represent a major threat that our societies have to face. Invasive species correspond to species that, due to human activities, cross geographic and reproduction barriers and expand into new areas in large numbers. This spread into new ecosystems may have severe socio-economic or ecological impacts. The most efficient way to limit these impacts is to predict and avoid biological invasions before they occur by setting up appropriate management plans.The aim of this PhD thesis is to demonstrate that existing predictive models can be further developed and combined together to improve biological invasion predictions. All of the methods developed in this thesis have been applied to social Hymenoptera: ant species (Formicidae) and the Asian hornet (Vespa velutina nigrithorax), but they are generalizable to any other taxa. The questions asked are: can we predict future invader species? Can we improve the spatial predictions of their distribution? Can we predict invasive species impact?First, I show in this thesis that it is possible to develop a model that detects future invasive species, even before they have had the chance to be moved outside their native range. I apply this screening tool to more than 2000 ant species, provide a list of the 15 ant species that are highly likely to become invasive and map their global suitability to highlights the area the most at risk from these invasions. All continents are threatened by at least one of these potential invasions. Second, I set up a methodological framework to improve species distribution predictions by combining multi-scale drivers. I apply this method to the invasive Asian hornet, identify its high affinity habitats, and use this information to refine suitability maps. I show that integrating multiple drivers, while still respecting their scale of effect, produced a potential range 55.9% smaller than that predicted using a climatic model alone. Finally, I propose a method to predict invasive species impacts in a spatially explicit way and I apply it to the estimate the Asian hornet’s impact on honeybee colonies in France. To do so, I estimate the Asian hornet nest density across France and combine it with an agent-based hive model to estimate honeybee mortality risk. I show that up to 41% of the honeybee colonies are likely to collapse due to the Asian hornet.Overall, these studies demonstrate how modelling techniques can provide valuable inputs to improve invasive species management decision by offering tools to optimize prevention strategies and target areas, species or habitats where action is needed in priority. Biological invasions involve our scientific, political and cultural perceptions in an intricate way; this PhD thesis highlights the usefulness of bringing together modelling techniques and the rest of biological invasion knowledge to better grasp invasion science complexity
Dal, Maso Elisa. "Epidemiology and control strategies applied to ash dieback and chestnut ink disease." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Padova, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3424092.
Lo scopo principale della gestione delle malattie forestali è la riduzione dei danni economici, biologici ed estetici e delle perdite di biodiversità dovute alle malattie delle piante. Le molteplici strategie usate nella gestione delle malattie possono essere raggruppate in due azioni principali, la prevenzione (anche detta profilassi) e la terapia (trattamento o cura). La prevenzione è principalmente limitata dalla mancanza di conoscenza in merito all'organismo in oggetto e i suoi ospiti. I modelli matematici sono stati utilizzati per approfondire la conoscenza delle malattie delle piante con vari obiettivi. Essi offrono l'opportunità di affrontare un uso razionale delle risorse riguardo ai costosi monitoraggi e rappresentano un passo fondamentale verso misure di controllo più sostenibili. Da un punto di vista curativo, oggigiorno gli sforzi sono focalizzati allo sviluppo di concetti di gestione delle malattie che bilancino i benefici dei pesticidi con le preoccupazioni in merito ai residui che possono contaminare l'ambiente. In questa tesi, i due principi della gestione della malattia sono stati affrontati con due casi studio: il dissecamento del frassino, causata da Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, che può essere considerata la più grave malattia del genere Fraxinus in Europa, e il mal dell'inchiostro del castagno, causata da Phytophthora cambivora (Petri) Buism. and P. cinnamomi Rands. Nella prima parte della tesi sono state introdotte le due malattie, in modo da poterne appurare somiglianze e differenze (Capitolo I). Successivamente, dal capitolo II al capitolo V sono descritte le prove sperimentali effettuate. In particolare, nel capitolo II è stato approntato uno studio della nicchia ecologica di H. fraxineus, con la caratterizzazione di variabili ecologiche e ambientali associate a zone naturalmente infette. Tale procedura è stata effettuata tramite Species Distribution Models (SDM), ampiamente utilizzati in ambito ecologico e da poco tempo anche nell'ambito della patologia vegetale. La presenza del patogeno è risultata fortemente correlata a tre variabili ambientali estive, in particolare abbondanti precipitazioni, alta umidità del suolo e basse temperature, in comparazione con la media dell'area di studio. Successivamente la tecnica dell'ensemble forecasting è stata applicata per ottenere una predizione della distribuzione potenziale del patogeno a scala europea, considerando la distribuzione di F. excelsior e F. angustifolia, ospiti della malattia. Infine, un innovativo metodo di network analysis ha permesso di individuare le aree ecologicamente adatte al patogeno ma non raggiungibili con una diffusione naturale. Nel capitolo III viene descritto uno studio condotto per valutare sei diversi fungicidi contro H. fraxineus. Inizialmente è stata effettuata una prova in vitro dei prodotti commerciali contro cinque ceppi del patogeno. Tiabendazolo, propiconazolo e allicina sono risultati i fungicidi più efficaci, con dose letale mediana più bassa, rispetto, per esempio, al principio attivo procloraz. Al contrario, il solfato di rame e i fosfiti di potassio si sono rilevati completamente inefficaci. Successivamente, i tre migliori fungicidi sono stati applicati in planta tramite trattamenti endoterapici su frassini maggiori inoculati al tronco con un ceppo autoctono. Tale test è stato anticipato da prove preliminari per massimizzare l'efficienza delle iniezioni; nelle condizioni stazionali e climatiche delle prove, maggiori velocità sono state raggiunte con soluzione acquosa addizionata con 1.2 % di acido acetico, effettuando i trattamenti la mattina presto o nel pomeriggio tardo. Considerando i risultati della prova in planta, tiabendazolo e allicina hanno rallentato in maniera significativa la crescita delle necrosi, al contrario non si è riusciti a iniettare la soluzione a base di propiconazolo. I capitoli IV e V riprendono le metodologie applicate contro la patologia del dissecamento del frassino, applicandole al mal dell'inchiostro del castagno. In particolare nel capitolo IV, la teoria fuzzy è stata adottata nello studio del complesso del mal dell'inchiostro, includendo nella costruzione del modello variabili ambientali quali temperatura minima invernale, siccità estiva, esposizione, distanza da corsi d'acqua e permeabilità del suolo, che più possono influire sullo sviluppo della malattia. Il modello è stato validato con un'ampia ricerca sul campo condotta nei castagneti nell'area di Treviso. Inoltre, sono state prodotte delle mappe dell'incertezza (inerenti a struttura, input e parametri del modello) per la corretta interpretazione della previsione. Buona parte dell'area a castagneto nella zona di studio si è rivelata adatta allo sviluppo del mal dell'inchiostro, mentre solo il 18.8 %, corrispondente alle aree più elevate, presentava rischi inferiori. Un secondo studio (capitolo V) ha riguardato una prova comparativa di efficacia di quattro formulazioni di fosfiti di potassio tramite endoterapia. P. cinnamomi è stata isolata con la tecnica del baiting in un castagneto affetto da mal dell'inchiostro ed è stata inoculata su 50 castagni asintomatici. In seguito ai trattamenti endoterapici, l'unica soluzione che ha significativamente rallentato la crescita delle necrosi è stata quella a base di fosfiti di potassio (35 %) addizionata con 0.1 % di soluzione di micronutrienti. Un'ulteriore prova di endoterapia è stata condotta in via preliminare nel castagneto abbandonato in cui era stata isolata P. cinnamomi, al fine di valutare la stimolazione alla crescita del callo cicatriziale da parte della soluzione iniettata fosfiti di potassio 70 %. I risultati ottenuti in questo caso non hanno evidenziato una differenza significativa rispetto ai controlli trattati con acqua, probabilmente per una necessità di tempi più lunghi considerando piante di età maggiore. In base ai risultati raggiunti, la modellistica epidemiologica e i trattamenti endoterapici sperimentati in merito alle patologie del dissecamento del frassino e al mal dell'inchiostro del castagno possono rappresentare degli strumenti fondamentali nella gestione integrata delle malattie considerate, da applicare insieme ad appropriate tecniche colturali per massimizzarne i benefici.
Andrade, André Felipe Alves de. "Estimativa da vulnerabilidade dos corais brasileiros." Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2016. http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/5592.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES
Coral reefs are of extreme importance to both nature and society, due to being responsible for several services and harbouring hundreds of species. Despite such critical importance, reef corals current suffered heavy losses since the Anthropocene, with 20% of world´s corals damaged beyond recovery due to human pressure and coastal development. This scenario is even worse, since corals are especially vulnerable to climate change and the entire ecosystem could go extinct by 2050. In this study we focus on comparing the already established impacts from human development and the yet happen losses from climate change on Brazilian corals, a unique fauna that still have gaps in knowledge. We created environmental suitability models for 24 species and quantified individual losses from both climate change and human activities. From the individual results we derived an overall pattern, in which we found out that future losses from climate alteration are equivalent to current losses from human activities. We then used the spatial distribution of those activities and key areas for conservation, determined with software Zonation, to select six areas in the Brazilian exclusive economic zone where proactive and reactive conservation strategies should be implanted, given its importance to biodiversity and concentrated anthropogenic impacts. Overall suitability losses were of approximately 30% for both sources and 60% of the areas will continue to be suitable in the future. Therefore, Brazilian corals will experience heavy losses from climate, especially the loss of highly suitable areas, which are compared to effects from human economic activities. Coral situation is likely to be even worse, if we were to consider bleaching, ocean acidification and diseases, events expected to increase with the rising temperature.
Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) is widely used for conservation purposes, predicting species invasion, evolutionary aspects and a whole array of applications. However, for most cases, evaluating the efficiency of those models poses as problematic, as commonly used methods (i.e. random methods) do not assure the required independence between data used to create the model and data used to evaluate the model. We developed a new transferabilitybased framework that ensures the much-needed independence between subsets. We created an alternate approach that geographically splits occurrence datasets, while intrinsically controls issues related to previous transferability approaches, such as overfitting, extrapolation and sampling bias. We used 26 Atlantic coral species to perform three different geographical divisions quantifying the effect of different splits on model predictive efficiency. We demonstrate that transferability should be used as an effective method to evaluate ENMs. Geographical split of the area in deciles proved as a reliable evaluation method, assuring independence between datasets and being less prone to common transferability issues. Our odds-and-evens framework provides improvements to the ongoing debate of ENMs evaluating by its transferability. This new method corrects the issue of artificiality causing sampling bias and overfitting, common in previous methodologies, while also is less prone to extrapolation issues, a common problem in transferability approaches. Moreover, the framework appears as a feasible and useful alternative to the problematic and commonly used random partition of datasets evaluation.
Serrano, Atuesta Yuliett Marcela. "Patterns of distribution of tree species in the neotropical lowland rainforest biome." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/31237.
Robertson, Mark Peter. "Predictive modelling of species' potential geographical distributions." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007189.
Marshall, Charlotte Emily. "Species distribution modelling to support marine conservation planning." Thesis, University of Plymouth, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/1176.
Dube, Qobo. "Species distribution modelling of Aloidendron dichotomum (quiver tree)." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29625.
Hanf, Daniella. "Species Distribution Modelling of Western Pilbara Inshore Dolphins." Thesis, Hanf, Daniella (2015) Species Distribution Modelling of Western Pilbara Inshore Dolphins. Masters by Research thesis, Murdoch University, 2015. https://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/29205/.
Kon, Kam King Guillaume. "Revisiting Species Sensitivity Distribution : modelling species variability for the protection of communities." Thesis, Lyon 1, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015LYO10194/document.
Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) is a method used by scientists and regulators from all over the world to determine the safe concentration for various contaminants stressing the environment. Although ubiquitous, this approach suffers from numerous methodological flaws, notably because it is based on incomplete use of experimental data. This thesis revisits classical SSD, attempting to overcome this shortcoming. First, we present a methodology to include censored data in SSD with a web-tool to apply it easily. Second, we propose to model all the information present in the experimental data to describe the response of a community exposed to a contaminant. To this aim, we develop a hierarchical model within a Bayesian framework. On a dataset describing the effect of pesticides on diatom growth, we illustrate how this method, accounting for variability as well as uncertainty, provides benefits to risk assessment. Third, we extend this hierarchical approach to include the temporal dimension of the community response. The objective of that development is to remove the dependence of risk assessment on the date of the last experimental observation in order to build a precise description of its time evolution and to extrapolate to longer times. This approach is build on a toxico-dynamic model and illustrated on a dataset describing the salinity tolerance of freshwater species
Flessner, Brandon P. "SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING OF AMERICAN BEECH (FAGUS GRANDIFOLIA EHRH.) DISTRIBUTION IN SOUTHWESTERN OHIO." Miami University / OhioLINK, 2014. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=miami1399040680.
Eddings, James B. "The Utility of Environmental DNA and Species Distribution Models in Assessing the Habitat Requirements of Twelve Fish Species in Alaskan North Slope Rivers." DigitalCommons@USU, 2020. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/7708.
Bailey, Joseph John. "Advancing biodiversity and species distribution modelling using geodiversity information." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2018. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/51704/.
Kaky, E. "Species distribution modelling of Egyptian plants under climate change." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2018. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/52119/.
Girardello, Marco. "The application of tree-based methods to species distribution modelling." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 2008. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.500942.
Muñoz, Mas Rafael. "Multivariate approaches in species distribution modelling: Application to native fish species in Mediterranean Rivers." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de València, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/76168.
Esta tesis se centra en el análisis comprensivo de las capacidades de algunos tipos de Red Neuronal Artificial aún no testados: las Redes Neuronales Probabilísticas (PNN) y los Conjuntos de Perceptrones Multicapa (MLP Ensembles). Los análisis sobre las capacidades de estas técnicas se desarrollaron utilizando la trucha común (Salmo trutta; Linnaeus, 1758), la bermejuela (Achondrostoma arcasii; Robalo, Almada, Levy & Doadrio, 2006) y el barbo colirrojo (Barbus haasi; Mertens, 1925) como especies nativas objetivo. Los análisis se centraron en la capacidad de predicción, la interpretabilidad de los modelos y el efecto del exceso de ceros en las bases de datos de entrenamiento, la así llamada prevalencia de los datos (i.e. la proporción de casos de presencia sobre el conjunto total). Finalmente, el efecto de la escala (micro-escala o escala de microhábitat y meso-escala) en los modelos de idoneidad del hábitat y consecuentemente en la evaluación de caudales ambientales se estudió en el último capítulo.
Aquesta tesis se centra en l'anàlisi comprensiu de les capacitats d'alguns tipus de Xarxa Neuronal Artificial que encara no han estat testats: les Xarxes Neuronal Probabilístiques (PNN) i els Conjunts de Perceptrons Multicapa (MLP Ensembles). Les anàlisis sobre les capacitats d'aquestes tècniques es varen desenvolupar emprant la truita comuna (Salmo trutta; Linnaeus, 1758), la madrilla roja (Achondrostoma arcasii; Robalo, Almada, Levy & Doadrio, 2006) i el barb cua-roig (Barbus haasi; Mertens, 1925) com a especies objecte d'estudi. Les anàlisi se centraren en la capacitat predictiva, interpretabilitat dels models i en l'efecte de l'excés de zeros a la base de dades d'entrenament, l'anomenada prevalença de les dades (i.e. la proporció de casos de presència sobre el conjunt total). Finalment, l'efecte de la escala (micro-escala o microhàbitat i meso-escala) en els models d'idoneïtat de l'hàbitat i conseqüentment en l'avaluació de cabals ambientals es va estudiar a l'últim capítol.
Muñoz Mas, R. (2016). Multivariate approaches in species distribution modelling: Application to native fish species in Mediterranean Rivers [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/76168
TESIS
Sutton, T. P. "Integrated species distribution modelling system : a user friendly front end to the GARP modelling toolkit." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/53748.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: At a social, ecological and biological level it is important tha t we gain a better understanding of species distribution and the constraints to species distribution. Various modelling tools and approaches are available to provide this type of functionality. The GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule set Production) Modelling System (GMS) was selected because of its strong predictive modelling abilities and its ability to represent the results of model iterations in both a tabular and cartographic manner. A shortcoming in this system was identified in tha t it requires strong information technology skills in order to carry out the modelling process. This can be attributed to the lack of a user-friendly interface to the system. In order to address this a loosely coupled system was developed that provides an easy to use web-based front end to the GMS. This Integrated Modelling System extends the core functionality of the GMS by providing a system that provides detailed history for each analysis, allows fine tuning of the modelling process, integrates directly with a biodiversity database containing specimen observations, and provides a simple ‘wizard’ interface to the modelling process.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Van ’n sosiale, ekologiese en biologiese standpunt is dit belangrik dat ons spesies verspreiding en die beperkings daarvan verstaan. ’n Verskeidenheid sagteware pakkette en metodologiee is beskikbaar om spesies verspreiding te modelleer. Die GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule set Production) sagteware was gebruik vir sy sterk voorspellingsvermoe, en sy kapasiteit vir kartografiese en tubulere tentoonstelling van model resultate. ’n Tekortkoming met hierdie stelsel was gei'dentifiseer - dit is nie gebruikersvriendelik nie en gebruikers het sterk informasie tegnologie vermoens nodig. Om hierdie tekortkominge aan te spreek was ’n sagteware program ontwerp wat van GARP gebruik maak deur middel van ’n webblaaier. Hierdie ge'integreerde stelsel bou op die basiese funksionaliteit van GARP om ’n werk omgewing te skep wat ’n gedetailleerde geskiedenis van elke model stoor, fyn beheer oor die model toelaat, direk met ’n bio diver siteits databasis koppel, en van ’n eenvoudige ’wizard’ stelsel gebruik maak om gebruikers opsies te bepaal.
Bracken, Jason. "A Consensus Model for Predicting the Distribution of the Threatened Plant Telephus Spurge (Euphorbia Telephioides)." Miami University / OhioLINK, 2016. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=miami1480622681613979.
Nyström, Sandman Antonia. "Modelling spatial and temporal species distribution in the Baltic Sea phytobenthic zone." Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Systemekologiska institutionen, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-54269.
At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 2: Submitted. Paper 3: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript. Paper 5: Manuscript.
Syfert, Mindy Mardean. "Species distribution modelling using presence-only data : applications in ecology and conservation." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2014. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.648801.
Wilkes, Chris. "Modelling the spatial distribution of three marine fish species in the southern Benguela." Bachelor's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/7642.
Rebelo, Hugo Emanuel Vitorino. "Using species distribution modelling and genetic analysis for the conservation of rare species : case studies on European bats." Thesis, University of Bristol, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1983/8498c4b1-266c-4afa-bc41-9c84749ba4c1.
Pearson, Richard G. "Modelling the potential impacts of climate and landscape fragmentation on the distribution of species." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.404872.
Brewer, Peter W. "Modelling the global distribution patterns of leguminosae species in past, present and future climates." Thesis, University of Reading, 2003. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.405474.
Scott-Hayward, Lindesay Alexandra Sarah. "Novel methods for species distribution mapping including spatial models in complex regions." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4514.
Sampson, Mark Robert. "Modelling the distribution and abundance of several demersal fish species on the Agulhas Bank, South Africa." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006207.
Gold, Daniel Alexander Biological Earth & Environmental Sciences Faculty of Science UNSW. "Predicting and preventing the spread of lantana into the Blue Mountains." Awarded by:University of New South Wales. Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences, 2009. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/44260.
Armenteras, Dolors. "Modelling the potential distribution of tree species at the national scale using geographical information systems." Thesis, King's College London (University of London), 2003. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.405762.
JAMWAL, Pushpinder Singh. "Niche modelling, current distribution and future scenarios for the otters in Himalayas." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi del Molise, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/11695/109967.
Maggini, Ramona. "Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland: filling data and tool gaps." Thesis, University of Lausanne, Switzerland, 2011. https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_16EF29C539B2.
Pigott, David Michael. "Mapping the global distribution of zoonoses of public health importance." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2015. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:962dc1a7-c6c1-4878-ab6f-94dcebf7b1e1.
Domisch, Sami [Verfasser], Peter [Akademischer Betreuer] Haase, and Oliver [Akademischer Betreuer] Tackenberg. "Species distribution modelling of stream macroinvertebrates under climate change scenarios / Sami Domisch. Gutachter: Peter Haase ; Oliver Tackenberg." Frankfurt am Main : Univ.-Bibliothek Frankfurt am Main, 2012. http://d-nb.info/1044093919/34.
Hossaini, Ryan. "Very short-lived halogenated species : modelling their tropospheric distribution, contribution to stratospheric bromine and impact on ozone." Thesis, University of Leeds, 2012. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.589027.
Bieleveld, Michel Jan Marinus. "Improving species distribution model quality with a parallel linear genetic programming-fuzzy algorithm." Universidade de São Paulo, 2016. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/3/3141/tde-26012017-113329/.
Biodiversidade, a variedade de vida no planeta, está em declínio às alterações climáticas, mudanças nas interações das populações e espécies, bem como nas alterações demográficas e na dinâmica de paisagens. Avaliações integradas baseadas em modelo desempenham um papel fundamental na compreensão e na exploração destas dinâmicas complexas e tem o seu uso comprovado no planejamento de conservação da biodiversidade. Os objetivos deste estudo de doutorado foram investigar; (1) o uso de técnicas de programação genética e fuzzy para construir modelos de alta qualidade que lida com presença e ausência de dados ruidosos do mundo real, (2) a extensão desta solução para explorar o paralelismo inerente à programação genética para acelerar tomadas de decisão e (3) um framework conceitual para compartilhar modelos, na expectativa de permitir a síntese de pesquisa. Subsequentemente, a qualidade do método, avaliada com a true skill statistic, foi examinado com dois estudos de caso. O primeiro utilizou um conjunto de dados fictícios obtidos a partir da definição de uma espécie virtual, e o segundo utilizou dados de uma espécie de pomba (Zenaida macroura) obtidos do North American Breeding Bird Survey. Nestes estudos, os modelos foram capazes de predizer a distribuição das espécies maneira correta mesmo utilizando bases de dados com até 30% de erros nas amostras de presença e de ausência. A implementação paralela utilizando um cluster de vinte nós c3.xlarge Amazon EC2 StarCluster, mostrou uma aceleração linear devido ao arquitetura de múltiplos deme de granulação grossa. O algoritmo de programação genética e fuzzy gerada em determinadas condições durante os estudos de caso, foram significativamente melhores na transferência do que os algoritmos do BIOMOD.
Guillaumot, Charlène. "Modelling the response of Antarctic marine species to environmental changes. Methods, applications and limitations." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/327073.
Doctorat en Sciences
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
Gies, Maria [Verfasser], Daniel [Akademischer Betreuer] Hering, and Ellen [Akademischer Betreuer] Kiel. "Species distribution modelling of stream macroinvertebrates at the catchment scale / Maria Gies. Gutachter: Ellen Kiel. Betreuer: Daniel Hering." Duisburg, 2015. http://d-nb.info/107647182X/34.
Fook, Karla Donato. "WBCMS - a service oriented Web architecture for enhancing collaboration in biodiversity: the case of species distribution modelling community." Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, 2009. http://urlib.net/sid.inpe.br/mtc-m18@80/2009/03.13.21.32.
Biodiversity conservation has become a most urgent and important theme at present. Biodiversity researchers use species distribution models to make inferences about species occurrences and locations. These models are useful for biodiversity conservation policies. Species distribution modelling tools use large biodiversity datasets which are globally distributed, sometimes in different computational platforms, and are hard to access and manipulate. The scientific community needs infrastructure in which biodiversity researchers can collaborate and share models, data, results, as well as reproduce experiments from others researchers. In this context, we present a Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) that supports the collaboration in species distribution modelling network on the Web. This computational environment is based on a Catalogue of modelling experiments and on a set of Geoweb services, the Web Biodiversity Collaborative Modelling Services WBCMS.
Guillaumot, Charlène. "Modelling the response of Antarctic marine species to environmental changes. Methods, applications and limitations." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Bourgogne Franche-Comté, 2021. http://www.theses.fr/2021UBFCK020.
Among tools that are used to fill knowledge gaps on natural systems, ecological modelling has been widely applied during the last two decades. Ecological models are simple representations of a complex reality. They allow to highlight environmental drivers of species ecological niche and better understand species responses to environmental changes. However, applying models to Southern Ocean benthic organisms raises several methodological challenges. Species presence datasets are often aggregated in time and space nearby research stations or along main sailing routes. Data are often limited in number to correctly describe species occupied space and physiology. Finally, environmental datasets are not precise enough to accurately represent the complexity of marine habitats. Can we thus generate performant and accurate models at the scale of the Southern Ocean ? What are the limits of such approaches ? How could we improve methods to build more relevant models ? In this PhD thesis, three different model categories have been studied and their performance evaluated. (1) Mechanistic physiological models (Dynamic Energy Budget models, DEB) simulate how the abiotic environment influences individual metabolism and represent the species fundamental niche. (2) Species distribution models (SDMs) predict species distribution probability by studying the relationship between species presences and the environment. They represent the species realised niche. (3) Dispersal lagrangian models predict the drift of propagules in water masses. Results show that physiological models can be developed for marine Southern Ocean species to simulate the metabolic variations in link with the environment and predict population dynamics. However, more data are necessary to highlight detailed physiological contrasts between populations and to accurately evaluate models. Results obtained for SDMs suggest that models generated at the scale of the Southern Ocean and future simulations are not relevant, given the lack of data available to characterise species occupied space, the lack of precision and accuracy of future climate scenarios and the impossibility to evaluate models. Moreover, model extrapolate on a large proportion of the projected area. Adding information on species physiological limits (observations, results from experiments, physiological model outputs) was shown to reduce extrapolation and to improve the capacity of models to estimate the species realised niche. Spatial aggregation of occurrence data, which influenced model predictions and evaluation was also succefully corrected. Finally, dispersal models showed an interesting potential to highlight the role of geographic barriers or conversely of spatial connectivity and also the link between species distribution, physiology and phylogeny history. This PhD thesis provides methodological advices, annoted codes and tutorials to help implement future modelling works applied to Southern Ocean marine species
Mesa, Christian Requena. "The ecosystem services of the Cerrado trees : modelling, distribution mapping and implications for conservation." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/170195.
The interest in valuing the ecosystem services provided by the natural vegetation has increased in an effort to mitigate the effects of land use change. In this line of thinking, we developed an index to value the tree communities -from an anthropocentric point of view- of the Brazilian savannah (Cerrado). The index and the cartography produced will serve as a tool for prioritization of conservation, has well as to unveil how colonization and agriculture expansion has taken place. In order to develop the index: new environmental layers at 90m resolution were produced; the most common 93 species’ distribution was modelled; and cartography for each use humans derive from the trees (food, aromatic, fiber, cosmetic, cork, etc., totaling 20 uses) and a total value index were developed. The new index of value, namely the Sum of Uses (SoU), represent the expected number of uses for the potential species assemblage that could be taking place under optimal conditions. The impact of agriculture was assessed by accounting for the area that has been converted to croplands. Our results strongly indicate that human settlement and cropland expansion have cleared the trees of areas that once were better than average ecosystem service providers. On the other hand, we also observe that protected areas in the Cerrado are located where we expect to find marginal value for the optimal communities. These results lead us to think that the conservation strategy might be far from optimal for the largest remaining arable patch in the world.
Hannemann, Henrik Jonathan Nicolai. "Conservation planning in Europe : ecological, financial, and political challenges." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2017. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:6180deed-8bab-4932-8a7c-e5bd54f765ed.
Whitehead, Amy Louise. "Tools for managing threatened species: improving the effectiveness of whio conservation." Thesis, University of Canterbury. School of Biological Sciences, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/3230.
Beton, Damla. "Effects Of Climate Change On Biodiversity: A Case Study On Four Plant Species Using Distribution Models." Phd thesis, METU, 2011. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12613538/index.pdf.
(2) Range expansion, especially for generalist species
and (3) Range contradiction, especially for Euro-Siberian mountainous species. Species modelling can be used to understand possible responses of plant species to climate change in Turkey. Modelling techniques should to be improved, however, especially by integrating other parameters such as biotic interactions and through a better understanding of uncertainties.
Virgili, Auriane. "Modelling distributions of rare marine species : the deep-diving cetaceans." Thesis, La Rochelle, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018LAROS003/document.
Deep-diving cetaceans, sperm- and beaked whales Physeteridae, Kogiidae and Ziphiidae, are rare marine species. Due to their low densities, wide distribution ranges and limited presence at the water surface, visual surveys usually result in low sighting rates. This paucity of data challenges the modelling of their habitat, prerequisite for their conservation. Models have to cope with a great number of zeros that weakens the ability to make sound ecological inferences. Consequently, this thesis aimed at finding a methodology suitable for datasets with a large number of zeros, determining how environmental variables influence deep-diver distributions and predicting areas preferentially used by these species. By testing the predictive performance of various habitat models fitted to decreasing numbers of sightings, I selected the most suitable model and determined that at least 50 sightings were needed to provide reliable predictions. However, individual surveys can rarely provide sufficient deep-diver sightings thus I merged many visual survey datasets to produce the first basin-wide deep-diver density maps in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. Highest densities were predicted in waters from 1500-4000 m deep and close to thermal fronts ; hotspots were predicted along the continental slopes, particularly in the western North Atlantic Ocean. In addition, a model transferability analysis highlighted that habitat drivers selected by the models varied between contrasted large ecosystems. Finally, I discussed challenges related to statistical modelling applied to rare species and the management applications of this thesis
Bussche, Jens von dem. "Modelling the spatial distribution of blackbird (Turdus merula) and ring ouzel (Turdus torquatus) in Switzerland." Master's thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2006. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2007/1401/.
Unter Verwendung von Habitatmodellen beschreiben wir die Habitatpräferenz von Amsel (Turdus merula) und Ringdrossel (T. torquatus) in der Schweiz. Mit Hilfe verschiedener Klimaszenarien prognostizieren wir zudem die künftige potentielle Verbreitung beider Arten. Zur Beschreibung eines eventuell auftretenden Skalensprungs, d.h. einer Änderung in der Beschreibungskraft der Variablen auf verschiedenen räumlichen Ebenen, erstellten wir Modelle auf zwei unterschiedlichen Skalen. Während das Modell auf Makroskala mit einer Maschenweite von einem Quadratkilometer die gesamte Schweiz abdeckt, erstellten wir zudem eine Auswahl an Untersuchungsgebieten auf Revierebene. Ringdrosseln zeigen ihren Verbreitungsschwerpunkt in der subalpinen Lage, während Amseln vornehmlich das Tiefland und die Tallagen besiedeln und nur vereinzelt in hohe Lagen vordringen. In einem Gürtel von ungefähr 400 Höhenmetern siedeln beide Arten parallel.Trotz dieses auf der Makroskala erkennbaren Überschneidungsbereiches konnten wir in unserer Untersuchung auf Revierebene, von einer Ausnahme abgesehen, keine Koexistenz beobachten. Kleinräumige Unterschiede in der Habitatstruktur, insbesondere in der Vegetationsbedeckung scheinen demnach für die Habitatselektion von maßgeblicher Bedeutung zu sein. Auf Makroebene hingegen wurde der Einfluss klimatischer Variablen deutlich, die neben der Höhenlage auch dort typische Vegetationsstrukturen widerspiegeln. Wie die Klimaszenarien zeigen, nehmen geeignete Ringdrosselhabitate bei steigenden Temperaturen ab und die Art weicht im Mittel um 440 m in höhere Lagen zurück. Für Amseln scheint sich eine zunehmende Erwärmung jedoch positiv auszuwirken, während das Verbreitungsgebiet im Tiefland beibehalten wird, dringt sie von den Tälern ausgehend zunehmend in höhere Lagen vor.
Tourne, Daiana Carolina Monteiro. "Combining species distribution modelling and environmental perceptions to support sustainable strategies for Amazon-nut (Bertholletia excelsa Bonpl.) planting and conservation." Universidade de São Paulo, 2018. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/91/91131/tde-14032019-160707/.
Os ecossistemas amazônicos vêm sendo impactados ao longo dos anos por diversos processos de uso e ocupação do território, os quais têm resultado em perdas de habitats e na fragmentação da paisagem nativa. Essas perturbações antrópicas, associadas às mudanças climáticas, têm consequências diretas sobre a distribuição e persistência das espécies in situ. Das 14.003 plantas da Amazônia reconhecidas taxonomicamente, somente 76 estão atualmente listadas pelo Ministério do Meio Ambiente brasileiro como espécies ameaçadas, embora acredita-se que esse número seja muito maior. Entre elas, a Castanha-da-Amazônia (Bertholletia excelsa), uma espécie de árvore nativa, reconhecida nacional e internacionalmente pela sua importância cultural, socioeconômica e nutricional, encontra-se classificada como vulnerável. Para nortear políticas públicas na conservação e no plantio dessa espécie, um profundo entendimento sobre o habitat disponível para ela, bem como a origem e escala das ameaças à esse ambiente, é necessário. A modelagem de distribuição de espécies é uma ferramenta que oferece predições espaciais robustas sobre a adequabilidade de habitat e tolerância das espécies, mas tem sido pouco utilizada no Brasil, sobretudo para espécies Amazônicas. Nesse contexto, esse estudo objetivou modelar a distribuição potencial da B. excelsa no bioma Amazônia, bem como conhecer os fatores que controlam sua distribuição. Para aprofundar essas análises, estudos de caso foram realizados com o objetivo de conhecer a percepção de atores sociais envolvidos com a espécie sobre as principais ameaças e potenciais soluções. Essa tese baseou-se em duas hipóteses: (i) existem áreas com maior adequabilidade para a ocorrência da Castanha-da-Amazônia que demandam diferentes objetivos, para conservação e para o plantio; (ii) se a população local é conciente da vulnerabilidade da espécie, ela pode indicar os fatores que geram essa condição. No capítulo 1, o habitat foi investigado por meio de simulações usando o algoritmo MAXENT. Um total de 3.325 ocorrências e 102 variáveis ambientais foram obtidas, e posteriormente organizadas por categorias climática, edáfica e geofísica. A resolução espacial escolhida foi de 30 arc-segundo (~1km). A multi-colinearidade entre as variáveis foi reduzida por meio da estatística multivariada associada ao conhecimento de especialistas, e as tendências nas ocorrência foram tratadas através da filtragem espacial. O melhor modelo foi selecionado usando métricas quantitativas e examinações visuais. As variáveis biofísicas mais importantes encontradas foram altitude (m), solos com fragmentos grosseiros (<2mm) e argila (%). Por fim, o modelo indicou que 2.3 million km2 i.e., 32% da região amazônica é apropriado para B. excelsa crescer. No capítulo 2, os fatores que afetam a conservação e o plantio da espécie foram discutidos com comunidades, gestores e pesquisadores locais, totalizando 203 participantes. As técnicas de discussão em grupo focal, entrevistas individuais e questionários foram utilizadas para a coleta das informações. Os dados foram categorizados e as opiniões entre os diferentes grupos comparadas utilizando análises quali-quantitativas. Concluiu-se que atualmente existem 36 problemas responsáveis pela vulnerabilidade da espécie, dos quais 72% encontram-se no contexto ambiental e político. O desmatamento foi a principal forçante apontada, seguida pela desvalorização do fruto, falhas na fiscalização e falta de organização nas comunidades. Para os três grupos, as principais soluções foram voltadas para o contexto político. Os resultados obtidos nesse estudo contribuiem para aumentar o conhecimento ecológico da espécie, para demostrar a complexidade do uso sustentável na Amazônia, e orientar tomadores de decisão na seleção de áreas prioritárias para conservação e potenciais para o plantio.
Sheehan, Meghan Marie. "Determining Drivers for Wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) Distribution in the Masai Mara National Reserve and Surrounding Group Ranches." Miami University / OhioLINK, 2016. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=miami1452550498.
Pirathiban, Ramethaa. "Improving species distribution modelling: Selecting absences and eliciting variable usefulness for input into standard algorithms or a Bayesian hierarchical meta-factor model." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2019. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/134401/1/Ramethaa_Pirathiban_Thesis.pdf.
Gontier, Mikael. "Spatial prediction tools for biodiversity in environmental assessment." Doctoral thesis, Stockholm : Land and Water Resource Engineering (Mark- och vattenteknik), Kungliga Tekniskan högskolan, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-4775.
Chatfield, Brenton Sean. "How to find the one that got away : predicting the distribution of temperate demersal fish from environmental variables." University of Western Australia. School of Earth and Geographical Sciences, 2008. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2009.0009.
Steenkamp, Pieter Johannes. "Ecological suitability modelling for anthrax in the Kruger National Park, South Africa." Diss., University of Pretoria, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/23358.
Dissertation (MMedVet)--University of Pretoria, 2013.
Production Animal Studies
unrestricted