Academic literature on the topic 'Social impacts of climate change and variability'
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Journal articles on the topic "Social impacts of climate change and variability"
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TIANA, Bam H. R. "Rural Community’s Livelihood Security and Perception of Climate Variability and Change to Better Address Climate Change Adaptation -Case Study in East Central Madagascar." Volume 5 - 2020, Issue 9 - September 5, no. 9 (September 29, 2020): 634–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt20sep332.
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Madagascar is exposed to a variety of natural hazards, including seasonal cyclones, floods and droughts that have severe impacts on the national economy, mainly dependent on agriculture. Due to these problems, the security of livelihoods is threatened and although Madagascar people had the historic ability to cope with these threats, it is of prime importance to consider climate change adaptation in a more holistic manner in the face of climate change and variability. However, for adaptation to be appropriately enacted there is a need to understand how local context and conditions are. For that, this study aims to understand livelihood security as well as rural community’s perception to climate variability and change and their impacts in order to better address climate change adaptation. The first step is to understand how local livelihoods are characterized, what local conditions are, and how they are related to occurring changes and impacts through a case study in Alaotra Region in East Central Madagascar. An analysis of livelihood resources (human, natural, social, physical and financial capital), livelihood strategies and outcomes was coupled with an investigation of communities’ perception on the climate variability and impacts on their lives and livelihoods. Findings showed that livelihoods of local communities, living mainly from agriculture and fisheries, are threatened by a degrading environment and related impacts, exacerbated by a changing climate. Households are facing climate extremes which directly affect their livelihoods, already characterized by limited assets and entitlements. Outputs from this study are believed to further contribute to understand the factors that need to be considered to better address adaptation strategies based on the current vulnerability and climate variability, both at present time and in the future.
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Basiru, Adeniyi Okanlawon, Abiodun Olusegun Oladoye, Olubusayo Omotola Adekoya, Lucas Aderemi Akomolede, Vincent Onguso Oeba, Opeyemi Oluwaseun Awodutire, Fredrick Charity, and Emmanuel Kolawole Abodunrin. "Livelihood Vulnerability Index: Gender Dimension to Climate Change and Variability in REDD + Piloted Sites, Cross River State, Nigeria." Land 11, no. 8 (August 4, 2022): 1240. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land11081240.
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Vulnerability to climate change and variability impacts has been identified as a major cog in the wheel of both livelihood and resilience, particularly in vulnerable groups in rural areas. This study aims to assess genders’ vulnerability dimension to climate change and variability in REDD + (Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation+) piloted site/clusters, Cross River State, Nigeria. Data were proportionately collected from selected 200 respondents on gender disaggregated level using questionnaires. The assessment adopted the sustainable livelihood approach (livelihood vulnerability index) and compared the results with the IPCC vulnerability standard of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity weighted mean. The results revealed a significant difference in the vulnerability dimension of both women and men disaggregated levels (LVI: men 0.509, women 0.618). The women category was more vulnerable to six out of seven major components of LVI assessed: (livelihood strategies (0.646), social networks (0.364), water (0.559), health (0.379), food and nutrition (0.507), and natural hazards and climate variability (0.482), while men only vulnerable to socio-demographic major component (0.346). Vulnerability indices also showed women to be more exposed (0.482), and sensitive (0.489) with the least adaptive capacities (0.462) to the climate change and variability impacts. Overall, on the IPCC-LVI index, women are more vulnerable (0.0098) to climate change and variability impacts than men (−0.0093). The study recommends that the women's category resilience and adaptive capacity should be empowered in adaptation projects in climate change such as REDD + (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation+) to reduce their vulnerability to impacts of climate change and variability in the context of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacities. This will be instrumental in formulating policies to address the specific needs of gender categories in reducing vulnerability to climate change and variability. This pragmatic approach may be used to monitor gender vulnerability dimension, and livelihood enhancement and evaluate potential climate change adaptation programs. Additionally, the introduction of IPCC-LVI as a baseline instrument will enhance information on gender resilience and adaptive capacity for policy effectiveness in a data-scarce region particularly Africa.
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Ojoyi, Mercy M., and Jean-Marc Mwenge Kahinda. "An analysis of climatic impacts and adaptation strategies in Tanzania." International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 7, no. 1 (March 16, 2015): 97–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-12-2012-0072.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate climate change perceptions and adaptation strategies in the communities of Morogoro region of Tanzania. Climate change is a vital issue of global concern. Design/methodology/approach – Rain fall data trends collected from different meteorological stations in the region were useful in assessment of climate variability and change trends from the historical perspective. In addition, quantitative interviews, surveys and focussed discussion groups were used to collect data capturing past and present trends in the catchment, and reasons provided by 199 respondents from a total of six villages. The data were collected with the aid of trained research assistants and trained graduates selected from each of the randomly select villages. Findings – Significant differences in rainfall intensities have been recorded by use of feedback results from analysis of variance tests conducted. Major indicators of climate variability and change include: increased dry spells (39.7 per cent), drying of rivers (34.7 per cent), a reduction in water flows (14.6 per cent) and poor economy of the area (11.1 per cent). Research limitations/implications – The scope of the study does not cover certain aspects such as the spatial and temporal changes in daily temperature which could have provided important and additional dimension. This study also did not take into consideration institutional arrangements required to successfully implement national adaptation programmes to climate change. Finally, it is important to remember that peoples’ perceptions determine the social mental picture of climate change. Practical implications – The study suggests the need for leverage on resource use through education and good governance strategies to be employed by resource planners, leaders and policy makers. Social implications – This study links scientific and participatory data as an approach for incorporating modern technologies and local knowledge into the design of useful practices and strategies as well as their successful implementation. Opinions from communities supported the urgent need for effective use and management of resources while laying emphasis on advancement of both indigenous and imported technologies. Originality/value – An understanding of how the community views climate change is crucial in design of practices aimed at improving their well-being. In this regard, a study investigating smallholder farmers’ views regarding major drivers of change, assessing main factors leading to changes in climate experienced and identifying potential coping strategies against climate change, was conducted in East Africa, Tanzania between 2009 and 2010. This paper identifies potential resilient practices intended to minimize destruction and maximize opportunities likely to benefit Morogoro region.
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Bonzemo, Sindani Bon. "To Examine Coping Adaptive Strategies Used by Households and Make Policy Recommendations for Addressing Future Climate Change Impacts on Livelihoods in Kapsokwony Division, Mt. Elgon Sub-County, Bungoma County, Kenya." International Journal of Educational Studies 1, no. 4 (December 28, 2018): 251–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.53935/2641-533x.v1i4.94.
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Long and short term changes in climate are disproportionately affecting all parts of the world in equal measure. The most impacted by vagaries of climate change are the most vulnerable and the poor who live in the developing world. Climate change and climate variability impacts the smallholder farmers though they continue to apply traditional technologies in order to cope with climate change vulnerability. In most of the parts the world over, coping strategies are lacking especially in the African States. Trans-disciplinary research approach was used to analyze the perception of community’s’ responses to climate change and climate variability at the household level. The purpose of this study was to build new transformation knowledge by integrating the traditional and the modern adaptive technologies in order to transform lives of the indigenous communities in the study area. This paper therefore explores and highlights the existing and modern technologies which can be employed by farmers to counteract the impacts of climate change and climate variability. Primary data was collected through in-depth and informant interviews together with Focused Group Discussions (FGDs) and a structured questionnaire administered to 384 household heads in twelve sub-locations in the study area (Kapsokwony Division) formed the basis of these policy recommendations. Secondary data constituting rainfall and temperature parameters was collected from Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). The long and short term integrated adaptive strategies and policy recommendations generated and developed by all the actors including those from the academia and the traditional communities during the research are meant to build climate resilience and adaptive capacity at local and national levels. A framework that has been developed by this research will help support policy decisions in conservation agriculture and livestock rearing systems, water resource management, change in social behavior, accessing early warning information, promotion of organic farming and human health systems. If fully implemented these policy recommendations will go a long way to bring a paradigm shift that will improve livelihoods and social economic development in the region. These recommendations can be replicated in any other region of the world to bring about desired changes to a people impacted by climate change. The research study achieved capacity building, resilience, adaptive learning, change in attitude and behavior, community empowerment, application of transformation knowledge as well as climate change awareness amongst area residents. The new societal knowledge was used to elucidate long term policies and adaptive strategies to enhance climate resilience, help eliminate poverty levels, improve livelihoods and sustain social economic development. The study recommends collaboration among stakeholders and integration of various sources of knowledge in addressing climate change and climate variability among residents in Kapsokwony Sub-county. Further research should be carried out in the future to corroborate these findings.
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Hlahla, Sithabile, Mulala Danny Simatele, Trevor Hill, and Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi. "Climate–Urban Nexus: A Study of Vulnerable Women in Urban Areas of KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa." Weather, Climate, and Society 14, no. 3 (July 2022): 933–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-20-0180.1.
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Abstract The changes in climatic conditions and their associated impacts are contributing to a worsening of existing gender inequalities and a heightening of women’s socioeconomic vulnerabilities in South Africa. Using data collected by research methods inspired by the tradition of participatory appraisals, we systematically discuss the impacts of climate change on marginalized women and the ways in which they are actively responding to climate challenges and building their adaptive capacity and resilience in the urban areas of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We argue that changes in climate have both direct and indirect negative impacts on women’s livelihoods and well-being. Less than one-half (37%) of the women reported implementing locally developed coping mechanisms to minimize the impacts of climate-related events, whereas 63% reported lacking any form of formal safety nets to deploy and reduce the impacts of climate-induced shocks and stresses. The lack of proactive and gender-sensitive local climate change policies and strategies creates socioeconomic and political barriers that limit the meaningful participation of women in issues that affect them and marginalize them in the climate change discourses and decision-making processes, thereby hampering their efforts to adapt and reduce existing vulnerabilities. Thus, we advocate for the creation of an enabling environment to develop and adopt progendered, cost-effective, transformative, and sustainable climate change policies and adaptation strategies that are responsive to the needs of vulnerable groups (women) of people in society. This will serve to build their adaptive capacity and resilience to climate variability and climate change–related risks and hazards.
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Silva, A. C. S., C. O. Galvão, and G. N. S. Silva. "Droughts and governance impacts on water scarcity: an~analysis in the Brazilian semi-arid." Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences 369 (June 11, 2015): 129–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-129-2015.
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Abstract. Extreme events are part of climate variability. Dealing with variability is still a challenge that might be increased due to climate change. However, impacts of extreme events are not only dependent on their variability, but also on management and governance. In Brazil, its semi-arid region is vulnerable to extreme events, especially droughts, for centuries. Actually, other Brazilian regions that have been mostly concerned with floods are currently also experiencing droughts. This article evaluates how a combination between climate variability and water governance might affect water scarcity and increase the impacts of extreme events on some regions. For this evaluation, Ostrom's framework for analyzing social-ecological systems (SES) was applied. Ostrom's framework is useful for understanding interactions between resource systems, governance systems and resource users. This study focuses on social-ecological systems located in a drought-prone region of Brazil. Two extreme events were selected, one in 1997–2000, when Brazil's new water policy was very young, and the other one in 2012–2015. The analysis of SES considering Ostrom's principle "Clearly defined boundaries" showed that deficiencies in water management cause the intensification of drought's impacts for the water users. The reasons are more related to water management and governance problems than to drought event magnitude or climate change. This is a problem that holdup advances in dealing with extreme events.
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Hu, Guozheng, Jocelyn Davies, Qingzhu Gao, and Cunzhu Liang. "Response of ecosystem functions to climate change and implications for sustainable development on the Inner Mongolian Plateau." Rangeland Journal 40, no. 2 (2018): 191. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/rj18041.
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The responses of ecosystem functions in Inner Mongolian grasslands to climate change have implications for ecosystem services and sustainable development. Research published in two previous Special Issues of The Rangeland Journal shows that recent climate change added to overgrazing and other factors caused increased degradation of Inner Mongolian rangelands whereas on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, climate change tended to ameliorate the impacts of overgrazing. Recent climate change on the Mongolian Plateau involved warming with increasingly variable annual precipitation and decreased summer rainfall. Future climate projections are different, involving modest increases in precipitation and further climate warming. Research published in the current Special Issue shows that precipitation is the climate factor that has the most substantial impact on ecosystem functions in this region and is positively correlated with plant species diversity, ecosystem carbon exchange and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index. Increased flows of provisioning and regulating ecosystem services are expected with future climate change indicating that its impacts will be positive in this region. However, spatial heterogeneity in the environments and climates of Inner Mongolia highlights the risk of over-generalising from local-scale studies and indicates the value of increased attention to meta-analysis and regional scale models. The enhanced flows of ecosystem services from climate change may support sustainable development by promoting recovery of degraded grasslands with flow-on benefits for livelihoods and the regional economy. However, realising these potential benefits will depend on sound landscape management and addressing the risk of herders increasing livestock numbers to take advantage of the extra forage available. Investment in education is important to improve local capacity to adapt rangeland management to climate change, as are policies and strategies that integrate social, economic and ecological considerations and are tailored to specific regions. Gaps in understanding that could be addressed through further research on ecosystem functions include; belowground carbon exchange processes; the impact of increased variability in precipitation; and the impact of different management practices under changed climates.
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C. Jacobs, Brent, Christopher Lee, David O’Toole, and Katie Vines. "Integrated regional vulnerability assessment of government services to climate change." International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 6, no. 3 (August 12, 2014): 272–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-12-2012-0071.
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Purpose – This paper aims to describe the conduct and outcomes of an integrated assessment (IA) of the vulnerability to climate change of government service provision at regional scale in New South Wales, Australia. The assessment was co-designed with regional public sector managers to address their needs for an improved understanding of regional vulnerabilities to climate change and variability. Design/methodology/approach – The study used IA of climate change impacts through a complex adaptive systems approach incorporating social learning and stakeholder-led research processes. Workshops were conducted with stakeholders from NSW government agencies, state-owned corporations and local governments representing the tourism, water, primary industries, human settlements, emergency management, human health, infrastructure and natural landscapes sectors. Participants used regional socioeconomic profiling and climate projections to consider the impacts on and the need to adapt community service provision to future climate. Findings – Many sectors are currently experiencing difficulty coping with changes in regional demographics and structural adjustment in the economy. Climate change will result in further impacts on already vulnerable systems in the forms of resource conflicts between expanded human settlements, the infrastructure that supports them and the environment (particularly for water); increased energy costs; and declining agricultural production and food security. Originality/value – This paper describes the application of meta-analysis in climate change policy research and frames climate change as a problem of environmental pollution and an issue of development and social equity.
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PERRY, R. I. "Potential impacts of climate change on marine wild capture fisheries: an update." Journal of Agricultural Science 149, S1 (December 23, 2010): 63–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021859610000961.
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SUMMARYThis paper provides a brief update on the potential impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and marine wild capture fisheries based on the scientific literature published since 2007. Current models predict shifts in fish distributions of 45–60 km per decade, with 0·80 of species moving poleward. With a high CO2 emissions scenario, little overall change in the global maximum potential fisheries catch is projected (±1%), although with high spatial variability: decreases of 40% are projected for the tropics, with increases of 30–70% for higher latitudes. Tropical nations appear to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on fisheries production. Coupled atmosphere–ocean–fish production–human society models are beginning to be developed for specific market systems. Results suggest that how society responds can have as large or larger an effect as the strength of the climate impact. Good observations of the impacts of climate change exist for high latitude, coral reef and North Atlantic systems. Management strategies are being developed to address climate change and fisheries, including risk and vulnerability assessment frameworks, pro-active planning with stakeholders regarding potential impacts and responses and examining existing regulations to identify gaps created by altered species distributions (e.g. unregulated fishing in newly ice-free areas). Overall, fisheries governance systems are needed which are flexible and can quickly adapt to changing ecological and human societal conditions. Significant knowledge gaps include a comprehensive and co-ordinated global network of observations to help distinguish climate change from variability, and increased detail in the structure and processes of models. Necessary next steps include reducing the uncertainties of climate impacts models at present, understanding the synergistic effects of multiple stressors and the inclusion of humans into coupled models and socio-economic analyses, in particular at regional and local scales. In the intermediate term, developing nations in tropical regions are likely to be most negatively impacted, whereas developed nations at higher latitudes are most likely to benefit. In the longer term, overall marine food security will depend on the impacts of climate change on marine primary production, for which the present projections are highly uncertain. Adoption of an integrated social–ecological approach that improves the adaptive capacities of ecological and human social systems will help to sustain food security from marine wild capture fisheries.
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Akinyemi, Felicia O. "Climate Change and Variability in Semiarid Palapye, Eastern Botswana: An Assessment from Smallholder Farmers’ Perspective." Weather, Climate, and Society 9, no. 3 (April 12, 2017): 349–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-16-0040.1.
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Abstract Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and variability in semiarid contexts. Despite the limited adaptation options often used and the largely subsistence agriculture practiced, studies have shown that smallholders have accumulated local knowledge about changes in climatic conditions. Farmers with field experience and an extensive stay in three sites in Palapye, eastern Botswana, were interviewed. This study related farmers’ perceptions of changes in climate with results from analysis of climate data. Major changes perceived are a reduction in rainfall amount, rising temperature, and increasing frequency of drought conditions. Perceived reduction in rainfall amount is confirmed by analysis results as variability in rainfall amount is high throughout the series. Rainfall was poorly distributed and below average at the beginning of the cropping seasons for four years between 2013 and 2017. For 1990, 2003, and 2012, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was −1.77 (severe drought), −1.37 (moderate drought), and −2.32 (extreme drought), respectively. To minimize impacts on crop production, farmers simultaneously planted different crops based on the perception that climatic impacts on different crops vary and favored crops perceived as drought resistant. Livestock farmers supplemented with livestock feeds, reduced herd size, and moved livestock to areas with better forage. Off-farm incomes from selling products harvested from the wild are important to farmers as a coping strategy, particularly when rain fails. Some female farmers brewed and sold alcohol made locally from sorghum. That local knowledge and perceptions exist and are used by smallholder farmers to adapt to climate change and variability is suggested. Engaging with local knowledge systems is an imperative for climate change policy making.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Social impacts of climate change and variability"
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Raymond, Florian. "Longs épisodes secs hivernaux dans le bassin méditerranéen et conditions atmosphériques associées : variabilité contemporaine et future (1957-2100)." Thesis, Bourgogne Franche-Comté, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017UBFCK017/document.
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Dans un contexte de changement climatique actuel et futur, se traduisantnotamment par un assèchement déjà observé en Méditerranée, cette thèse seconcentre sur l’étude de la variabilité contemporaine et future (1957-2100)des événements de très longs épisodes secs (eTLES) hivernaux (septembreavril)dans le bassin méditerranéen. Une méthodologie originale a été développéeau cours de cette thèse pour appréhender les eTLES comme desévénements climatiques singuliers, caractérisés par des critères de localisation,de durée et d’extension spatiale.Sur la période contemporaine (1957-2013), 76 eTLES ont été détectésdans le bassin méditerranéen. Ces événements sont répartis en 4 principalesconfigurations géographiques : Nord-Est, Ouest, Dispersés & Restreints etSud-Est. Les configurations de types Nord-Est et Ouest sont associées àdes blocages anticycloniques localisés à environ 1 000 km au nord-ouestdes secteurs principalement affectés par les eTLES, favorisant un ciel dégagéet l’absence de précipitations. Les configurations de types Dispersés& Restreints et Sud-Est sont particulières, car la première est caractériséecomme étant une classe résiduelle regroupant des eTLES à faible extensionspatiale répartis dans l’ensemble du bassin, la seconde est caractérisée pardes eTLES saisonniers qui s’insèrent dans la continuité de l’été sec observéà l’est du bassin méditerranéen.Les grands régimes de circulation atmosphérique du domaine Euro-Atlantique montrent un certain contrôle sur les eTLES. Ainsi, la phasepositive de l’oscillation nord-atlantique (NAO+) est le seul régime à êtreclairement favorable au développement d’eTLES sur la quasi-totalité du bassin.Le régime est-atlantique (EA) ne montre pas de contrôle sur les eTLES,atlantic ridge (AR) et la phase négative de l’Oscillation Nord-Atlantique(NAO-) sont deux régimes généralement défavorables aux eTLES. Cependant,des eTLES sont pourtant associés aux régimes AR, EA et NAO-. Pourcela, il faut que ces trois régimes de circulation soient associés à des pressionsatmosphériques légèrement plus élevées au nord-ouest des secteursimpactés par les eTLES, comparativement à leur climatologie respective.Les longues séquences des régimes AR, EA et NAO+, représentatives d’unecertaine stabilité atmosphérique durable dans le temps, sont préférentiellementassociées aux eTLES, contrairement aux courtes séquences de ces troisrégimes. À l’inverse, les longues séquences du régime NAO-, renforçant les basses pressions atmosphériques sur l’Europe et le bassin méditerranéen,sont peu associées aux eTLES.Bien que les deux modèles ALADIN52 et LMDZ4-NEMOMED8 affichentdes résultats différents à plusieurs niveaux, ils s’accordent tout demême à montrer que les eTLES devraient être de plus en plus longs d’icià l’horizon 2100, de façon encore plus marquée pour la trajectoire RCP8.5que RCP4.5. Une analyse multi-modèles comprenant 12 simulations CMIP5montre qu’en moyenne par saison, la pression réduite au niveau de la meraurait tendance à augmenter sur l’océan Atlantique, au large des côtes françaiseset sur le centre du bassin méditerranéen, de façon robuste pour latrajectoire RCP8.5. À l’inverse, la fréquence et la durée des séquences des 4régimes de circulation atmosphérique ne semblent pas être amenées à évoluerd’ici à l’horizon 2100.Une étude est enfin menée pour constater les impacts des eTLES surla production agricole en Espagne. Le nombre de jours d’eTLES impactedavantage les rendements d’orge, de blé et d’avoine (espèces d’hiver et cultivéesau travers d’une agriculture pluviale) que les simples ratios de jourssecs et les cumuls de pluie en Espagne. Une étude de cas réalisée sur deuxsaisons ayant reçu des cumuls de pluie comparables montre qu’en plus desrendements, un eTLES provoque une baisse significative de l’humidité dessols et du débit du fleuve ÈbreIn the context of climate change, as reflected by a dryer Mediterraneanbasin, this thesis focused on the study of the contemporary and future variability(1957-2100) of the wintertime (September to April) very long dryspells events (called VLDSe) in the Mediterranean basin. An original methodologywas developed in this thesis in order to define VLDSe as singularclimatic events, characterized by location, duration and spatial extent criteria.76 VLDSe were detected in the Mediterranean basin on the contemporaryperiod (1957-2013). These events are divided into 4 main geographicalpatterns: North-East, West, Scattered Localized and South-East. North-East and West configurations are associated with anticyclonic conditionslocated approximately 1 000 km northwestern to the areas affected by theVLDSe, favoring a clear sky and no precipitations. The Scattered Localizedand South-East configurations are special: the first one is characterized asa residual class grouping VLDSe with small spatial extent and distributedthroughout the entire basin, and the second one is characterized by seasonalVLDSe which are the continuation of the dry summer observed in the eastof the Mediterranean basin.Euro-Atlantic weather regimes have some control on the VLDSe. Thepositive phase of the north-atlantic oscillation regime (NAO+) is the onlyone that is clearly favorable to the development of VLDSe on almost the entirebasin. The east-atlantic regime (EA) does not show any control on theVLDSe, and the atlantic ridge (AR) and the negative phase of the northatlanticoscillation (NAO-) regimes are generally detrimental to VLDSe. However,some VLDSe can sometimes be associated with AR, EA and NAOregimes.This requires these three weather regimes to be associated withslightly higher atmospheric pressure northwest of the areas impacted bythe VLDSe, compared to their respective climatology. Long duration of theAR, EA and NAO+ regimes, which are coupled with sustained atmosphericstability, are preferentially associated with VLDSe, in contrast to the shortduration. Conversely, the long duration of the NAO- regime, reinforcingthe low atmospheric pressure on Europe and the Mediterranean basin, areweakly associated with VLDSe.Although the two climate models ALADIN52 and LMDZ4-NEMOMED8 differ in several respects, they agree in that VLDSe should be longer by 2100,especially in the RCP8.5 trajectory. A multi-model analysis with 12 CMIP5simulations shows that wintertime sea-level pressure tends to increase in theAtlantic Ocean, off the French coast and in the central the Mediterraneanbasin for the RCP8.5 trajectory. Conversely, the frequency and duration ofthe 4 weather regimes do not show significant trends until the end of the21st century.Finally, a study is carried out to assess the impact of VLDSe on agriculturalproduction in Spain. The number of VLDSe days has a larger impactson the yields of barley, wheat and oats (winter species and cultivatedthrough rainfed agriculture) than the simple ratio of dry days or seasonalrainfall amounts in Spain. A two-season case study, based on seasons withcomparable rainfall amounts, shows that in addition to yields, a VLDSecauses a significant decrease in soil moisture and in the Ebro River flow
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Lau, Hoppa. "Impacts of climate variability and climate change on prairie wheat yield." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2001. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp04/MQ58810.pdf.
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Parsons, Luke Alexander, and Luke Alexander Parsons. "Sources and Impacts of Modeled and Observed Low-Frequency Climate Variability." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/625552.
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Here we analyze climate variability using instrumental, paleoclimate (proxy), and the latest climate model data to understand more about the sources and impacts of low-frequency climate variability. Understanding the drivers of climate variability at interannual to century timescales is important for studies of climate change, including analyses of detection and attribution of climate change impacts. Additionally, correctly modeling the sources and impacts of variability is key to the simulation of abrupt change (Alley et al., 2003) and extended drought (Seager et al., 2005; Pelletier and Turcotte, 1997; Ault et al., 2014).
In Appendix A, we employ an Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) simulation to study the impacts of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the climate of the American Tropics. The AMOC drives some degree of local and global internal low-frequency climate variability (Manabe and Stouffer, 1995; Thornalley et al., 2009) and helps control the position of the tropical rainfall belt (Zhang and Delworth, 2005). We find that a major weakening of the AMOC can cause large-scale temperature, precipitation, and carbon storage changes in Central and South America. Our results suggest that possible future changes in AMOC strength alone will not be sufficient to drive a large-scale dieback of the Amazonian forest, but this key natural ecosystem is sensitive to dry-season length and timing of rainfall (Parsons et al., 2014).
In Appendix B, we compare a paleoclimate record of precipitation variability in the Peruvian Amazon to climate model precipitation variability. The paleoclimate (Lake Limón) record indicates that precipitation variability in western Amazonia is ‘red’ (i.e., increasing variability with timescale). By contrast, most state-of-the-art climate models indicate precipitation variability in this region is nearly'‘white' (i.e., equally variability across timescales). This paleo-model disagreement in the overall structure of the variance spectrum has important consequences for the probability of multi-year drought. Our lake record suggests there is a significant background threat of multi-year, and even decade-length, drought in western Amazonia, whereas climate model simulations indicate most droughts likely last no longer than one to three years. These findings suggest climate models may underestimate the future risk of extended drought in this important region.
In Appendix C, we expand our analysis of climate variability beyond South America. We use observations, well-constrained tropical paleoclimate, and Earth system model data to examine the overall shape of the climate spectrum across interannual to century frequencies. We find a general agreement among observations and models that temperature variability increases with timescale across most of the globe outside the tropics. However, as compared to paleoclimate records, climate models generate too little low-frequency variability in the tropics (e.g., Laepple and Huybers, 2014). When we compare the shape of the simulated climate spectrum to the spectrum of a simple autoregressive process, we find much of the modeled surface temperature variability in the tropics could be explained by ocean smoothing of weather noise. Importantly, modeled precipitation tends to be similar to white noise across much of the globe. By contrast, paleoclimate records of various types from around the globe indicate that both temperature and precipitation variability should experience much more low-frequency variability than a simple autoregressive or white-noise process.
In summary, state-of-the-art climate models generate some degree of dynamically driven low-frequency climate variability, especially at high latitudes. However, the latest climate models, observations, and paleoclimate data provide us with drastically different pictures of the background climate system and its associated risks. This research has important consequences for improving how we simulate climate extremes as we enter a warmer (and often drier) world in the coming centuries; if climate models underestimate low-frequency variability, we will underestimate the risk of future abrupt change and extreme events, such as megadroughts.
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Parry, Louise Margaret. "Monsoon variability, climate change and impacts on hydrology in the Himalaya." Thesis, University of Bristol, 2016. https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.715813.
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Crimmins, Michael, and Gregg Garfin. "Climate Change and Wildfire Impacts in Southwest Forests and Woodlands (Climate Change and Variability in Southwest Ecosystems Series)." College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/146955.
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4 pp.Southwest forests are complex systems that are influenced by climate variability. Wildfires naturally occur in these forests and woodlands, but with an increasing population, land management decisions are becoming more difficult. This publication is a result of discussions from the "Workshop on Climate Variability and Ecosystem Impacts" that was sponsored by UA Cooperative Extension in February 2005. It provides a summary of the current situation, a summary of climate change science for land management, and a brief description of suggested future research in climate science as it relates to forests and woodlands.
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Thanke, Wiberg Joakim. "Local Impacts of Climate Change on Fortum´s Hydropower Production." Thesis, KTH, Vattendragsteknik, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-183396.
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Background: Climate change and the consequences of global warming is probably one of the greatest issues of our time. Among other concerns, global warming is thought to have a great impact on hydrology worldwide. When the atmosphere warms up, river runoff patterns are altered. Nevertheless these future changes are assumed to increase the hydropower potential in some countries. In the public debate it is often referred to a nine year old investigation claiming an increase of 15-20 % in Swedish energy production from hydropower due to the river runoff increase. On the other hand recent research is hinting that the effect of global warming might be masked by climate variability in the nearest future. This study seeks to investigate whether or not the hydropower-intensive company Fortum will benefit from increased future hydropower potential due to climate change. Methods: Using historical data, the impacts of global warming on the future potential power production in different types of hydropower plants are estimated by the statistical approach of probability density functions. Moreover spectral analysis is used to investigate the impacts of climate variability in various Swedish watersheds. The study investigates both the nearest future, represented by the years 2021-2050, and the end of the century, represented by the years 2069-2098. Results: The future hydropower production is shown to be strongly dependent on the geographical location of a power plant and of the specific power plant type. Although all Swedish rivers where Fortum operates is given more river runoff in the future, some hydropower plants might suffer from lower hydropower potential due to increased runoff variability. However all reservoir-type power plants in the study, with ability to store water, are calculated to benefit from increased river runoff. Only the run-of-river type power plants, operating with unregulated river flow, are not yet proven to benefit from a changing climate. When considering both specific river and type of power plant, this study indicates that the hydropower potential in the rivers where Fortum operates is expected to increase with 4-15 % towards the end of the century. The one exception is the unregulated river Västerdalälven where this study indicates a possibility of decreased hydropower potential due to climate change. The results of the spectral analysis indicates that up to 30 % of the coefficient of variation in the monthly mean runoff data is explained by low-frequent periodic fluctuations due to natural climate variability, linked to somewhat predictable climate indices. Conclusion: Natural climate variability is likely to be the dominating factor in the nearest future, at least in regulated rivers. Although there are uncertainties about the future potential power production in the run-of-river type power plants, one cannot deny that most of the Swedish rivers where the major hydropower companies operate are strongly regulated. Adding the fact that river runoff will increase as a consequence of global warming, Fortum is likely to gain from an increased hydropower potential. However, this present study highlights the inaccuracies in using the out-of-date estimation of 15-20 % hydropower-potential increase as a forecast of future potential power production in all Fortum-operated hydropower plants.
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Fowler, Hayley Jane. "The impacts of climatic change and variability on water resources in Yorkshire." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/10443/432.
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Observational evidence and future climate change scenarios suggest an amplification of climatic contrasts across the UK. This is seen most prominently in the marked increase in notable flood events and drought episodes and may profoundly affect water resource systems in vulnerable areas, as exemplified by the 1995 Yorkshire drought. The 1995-96 drought resulted in severe stress to the Yorkshire water supply, necessitating the emergency measure of tanking in water from outside the region, and was caused by an unusual pattern of weather and precipitation. This research is an investigation into both natural climatic variability and possible future climate change in Yorkshire aiming to quantify the risk of future occurrence of severe drought events, such as that of 1995. Historical drought characteristics and spatial-temporal precipitation variability in Yorkshire are examined and linked to synoptic weather patterns. A multi-site stochastic rainfall model is then developed using conditioning by synoptic weather types. The model can account for spatial variability and allows the concurrent simulation of precipitation time-series for very different climatological sub-regions within the same water resource area. This model is used to investigate the impact of natural climatic variability and possible future climate change upon water resource reliability, resilience and vulnerability in Yorkshire. The structure of the stochastic rainfall model enables the impact of variations in weather type persistence or frequency to be investigated. In addition, rainfall model statistics can be altered to simulate instances of increased precipitation intensity or proportion dry days for example, for individual weather groups. The UKCIP98 Medium-High climate change scenarios for 2021- 2050 and 205 1-2080 are investigated using modifications to weather type frequency, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Results indicate that water resources in Yorkshire are likely to become more reliable on average under the examined climate change scenarios due to increased winter precipitation. However, model simulations also suggest a reduction in resource resilience and increased vulnerability to drought. Severe droughts comparable to that of 1995 show only a slight increase in frequency by 2080. However, there will be a significant increase in both magnitude and duration of severe drought, as a consequence of summer precipitation reductions and increased climatic variability. This methodology of simulating the impacts of potential atmospheric circulation change on precipitation regimes can provide a basis for the future planning and management of water resource systems.
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O'Brien, Geoff. "Disaster management, climate change and variability and social resilience." Thesis, Northumbria University, 2008. http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/3142/.
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Accelerated climate change and increasing climate variability caused by increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is the single largest threat to the international goals of sustainable development, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and disaster risk reduction. Global discourses recognise the need for effective and sustainable responses to produced climate risks. The risk types likely to occur are known, but only in broad terms. That they are produced by human action is accepted; but their scale, severity, longevity and frequency are not known. The challenge for policymakers is developing an effective framework within which sustainable responses can be formulated. Addressing the problems of produced risks requires a comprehensive approach to risk management to be effective. The mechanisms within the climate change, sustainable development and disaster risk reduction discourses are not sufficiently effective or integrated to respond to this challenge. Fundamental reform to current modes of risk reduction is needed, but this can only be achieved by a shift in the dominant perspective on formulating sustainable responses. This requires a shift to an enabling policy framework that encourages bottom-up resilient responses. Resilience is argued as a tool for policy development that can enhance adaptive capacity to current climate risks and shape energy policy to respond to mitigate future climate risks.
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Ambrosino, C. "Rainfall variability in southern Africa : drivers, climate change impacts and implications for agriculture." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2011. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1322446/.
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Southern Africa is characterised by a high degree of rainfall variability affecting agriculture among other sectors. The focus of this study is to investigate such variability and to identify stable relationships with its potential drivers in the climate system. These relationships are used as the basis for the statistical downscaling of climate model (GCM) outputs. From the simulated rainfall, indices representative of growing season characteristics are computed with the final purpose of studying the implications on maize cropping under a future climate change scenario. The analysis uses generalized linear models (GLMs), which allow the investigation of the relationships between different components of the climate system (geographical and climatic drivers) simultaneously. Initially, the effects of various climate indicators upon monthly regional (for all southern Africa) precipitation occurrences and amounts are characterised. Six climate factors are found to drive part of the rainfall variability in the region and their modelled effect upon rainfall occurrences and amounts agrees broadly with previous studies. Among the retained indices, relative humidity and El Niño accounted for the highest degree of explained variability. The location and intensity of the jet stream is also found to have a statistically significant and physically meaningful effect upon rainfall variability. Although effective for the analysis of monthly regional precipitation, and used to investigate future regional projections, the models do not perform adequately at more local spatial scales such as station locations or few km grids. The same methodology is, therefore, applied to characterise daily precipitation variability at multiple locations within a smaller region. The small scale statistical models capture adequately the seasonal and annual rainfall structure in the area. Indeed, the observations can not be distinguished from the simulated time series. However, the simulated rainfall values tend to be slightly too high throughout the seasons, possibly due to the spatial correlation structure not completely appropriate for such a complex region. From the simulated rainfall sequences, seven growing season indices (including the onset and length of the growing season, proportion of rainy days and total precipitation during the growing season) are derived and their projected change investigated under a climate change scenario. There is little consensus between the 18 selected GCMs, regarding changes in growing season indices between two investigated periods in the 20th and 21st centuries. For the next couple of decades the dominant source of variation in the indices appears to be the natural rainfall variability. Such information should therefore be taken into account when planning adaptation and mitigation strategies. The research presented here emerges as the first comprehensive assessment of different climatic factors linked to southern Africa rainfall variability as well as the first attempt to evaluate the GLMs suitability for the generation of rainfall sequences for agricultural impact studies.
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Rogstad, Alix, Michael Crimmins, and Gregg Garfin. "Climate Change and Wildfire Impacts in Southwest Forests and Woodlands." College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/239605.
Full textBooks on the topic "Social impacts of climate change and variability"
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Siegfried, Demuth, IAHS International Commission on Water Resources Systems., and Flow Regimes from International Experimental and Network Data (Project), eds. Climate variability and change--hydrological impacts. [Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK]: IAHS, 2006.
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Matthias, Ruth, Donaghy Kieran, and Kirshen Paul H, eds. Regional climate change and variability: Impacts and responses. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Pub., 2006.
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Lau, Hoppa. Impacts of climate variability and climate change on prairie wheat yield. Ottawa: National Library of Canada, 2001.
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Mote, Philip W. Impacts of climate variability and change in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle, Wash: The Group, 1999.
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Mearns, Linda O., ed. Issues in the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Agriculture. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1984-1.
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National Assessment Synthesis Team (U.S.). Climate change impacts on the United States: The potential consequences of climate variability and change : overview. Washington, D.C: The Team, 2000.
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National Assessment Synthesis Team (U.S.). Climate change impacts on the United States: The potential consequences of climate variability and change : overview. Washington, D.C: The Team, 2000.
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Orlandini, Simone, and Pavol Nejedlik, eds. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in Europe. Florence: Firenze University Press, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.36253/978-88-6655-207-9.
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COST Action 734 was launched thanks to the coordinated activity of 29 EU countries. The main objective of the Action was the evaluation of impacts from climate change and variability on agriculture for various European areas. Secondary objectives were: collection and review of existing agroclimatic indices and simulation models, to assess hazard impacts on European agricultural areas; to apply climate scenarios for the next few decades; the definition of harmonised criteria to evaluate the impacts of climate change and variability on agriculture; the definition of warning systems guidelines. Based on the result, possible actions (specific recommendations, suggestions, warning systems) were elaborated and proposed to the end-users, depending on their needs.
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Center, WorldFish. Impacts of climate change and variability on fish value chains in Uganda. Penang, Malaysia]: WorldFish Center, 2012.
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Impacts of climate change and variability on pastoralist women in Sub-Saharan Africa. Kampala: Fountain Publishers, 2013.
Find full textBook chapters on the topic "Social impacts of climate change and variability"
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Patz, Jonathan. "Climate Variability and Change: Food, Water, and Societal Impacts." In Global Climate Change and Public Health, 211–35. New York, NY: Springer New York, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-8417-2_12.
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Patz, Jonathan A. "Climate Variability and Change: Food, Water, and Societal Impacts." In Climate Change and Global Public Health, 311–38. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54746-2_14.
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Temba, Pontian L., Noah M. Pauline, and Patrick M. Ndaki. "Living and responding to climate variability and change among coffee and banana farmers in the highlands of Moshi rural district, Tanzania." In Climate change impacts and sustainability: ecosystems of Tanzania, 9–22. Wallingford: CABI, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781789242966.0009.
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Abstract The study aimed at exploring perceived impacts of climate variability on coffee and banana farming and community responses in the highlands of Moshi Rural District. A socio-economic survey employing qualitative and quantitative research approaches was used. Data were collected using questionnaires, key informant interviews, focus group discussions as well as field observation. A total of 96 farmers were involved in the study. SPSS Statistics software package and Microsoft Excel were used for data processing and analysis. Findings showed that communities are knowledgeable about climate variability. Their knowledge is based on perceptions of the impacts already felt and attributed to climate variability, including unpredictable patterns of rainy seasons. Climate variability is associated with decrease in household food supply, unpredictable farming calendar and drying of water sources for irrigation and domestic use. Coffee yields showed a decreasing trend (at the rate of R2 = -0.494) during the years 1990-2016. This was contrary to bananas, which indicated an increasing trend (R2 = 0.036) of production during the same period. Communities were responding to impacts of climate variability in various ways, including intercropping, planting early maturing and drought-resistant varieties and gravity canal irrigation. Projected climate changes showed that the future was uncertain for farmers depending on rain-fed farming. Therefore, further research on viable options would help farmers adapt to current and future climatic stresses. Options may include intensified irrigation of crops and conservation farming which have the potential to increase banana and coffee production, thereby improving productivity and food security for communities.
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Muller, Mike. "Managing Current Climate Variability Can Ensure Water Security Under Climate Change." In African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation, 2311–37. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_243.
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AbstractWater resources will be significantly impacted upon by climate change, and these impacts will be transmitted to the many sectors and services dependent on them. The nature, extent, and timing of these impacts remain uncertain, but the long lifetime of water infrastructures requires that their planning, development, and operations should be resilient to climate changes. An effective approach is to focus on the management of current climate variability as it relates to water, which strengthens the ability of communities and countries to foresee, manage, and adapt to the impacts of longer-term climate change on water-related activities. This approach is illustrated by cases from Southern and Eastern Africa.Current “stationary” stochastic methods of hydrological analysis can still be used under assumptions of a “dynamic stationarity” although more regular updating of hydrological data will be required. Methodologies to evaluate economic dimensions of risk reduction introduce additional uncertainties but may help decision-makers to understand the risks and opportunities. Diversification of sources and sequencing of resource development pathways are helpful strategies to adapt to climate change but must ensure that risks affecting different sources are not correlated. Attention must also be given to demand-side interventions in order to reconcile supply and demand, and these perspectives must be shared with social, economic, and political actors to ensure that strategies are communicated, understood, and supported by the wider community.
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Muller, Mike. "Managing Current Climate Variability Can Ensure Water Security Under Climate Change." In African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation, 1–27. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42091-8_243-1.
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AbstractWater resources will be significantly impacted upon by climate change, and these impacts will be transmitted to the many sectors and services dependent on them. The nature, extent, and timing of these impacts remain uncertain, but the long lifetime of water infrastructures requires that their planning, development, and operations should be resilient to climate changes. An effective approach is to focus on the management of current climate variability as it relates to water, which strengthens the ability of communities and countries to foresee, manage, and adapt to the impacts of longer-term climate change on water-related activities. This approach is illustrated by cases from Southern and Eastern Africa.Current “stationary” stochastic methods of hydrological analysis can still be used under assumptions of a “dynamic stationarity” although more regular updating of hydrological data will be required. Methodologies to evaluate economic dimensions of risk reduction introduce additional uncertainties but may help decision-makers to understand the risks and opportunities. Diversification of sources and sequencing of resource development pathways are helpful strategies to adapt to climate change but must ensure that risks affecting different sources are not correlated. Attention must also be given to demand-side interventions in order to reconcile supply and demand, and these perspectives must be shared with social, economic, and political actors to ensure that strategies are communicated, understood, and supported by the wider community.
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Ekanem, Jemimah Timothy, and Idongesit Michael Umoh. "Social Vulnerability of Rural Dwellers to Climate Variability: Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria." In African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation, 2269–91. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_232.
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AbstractFor their livelihood activities, rural farming communities depend more on extractive capital. Their capacity to cultivate sufficiently for their family maintenance is greatly impeded by the absence of either temperature or rainfall quantity pattern or uniformity. The divergent effects of recent extreme weather events around the world, including within relatively small geographical areas, exemplify the unequal impacts of climate change on populations. Akwa Ibom State has been found vulnerable to extreme weather events, such as flooding, severe storms, and rising sea levels, leading to homelessness, poverty, conflicts, and war for millions of people. All of these have resulted in social disturbances and dislocations among rural populations, especially in coastal communities, making them more vulnerable to climate variability. In the field of social vulnerability in the state, not much has been achieved. This chapter analyzes the vulnerability of the rural population to climate variability; the socio-economic characteristics of the rural population; the index of social vulnerability of rural dwellers to climate variability; social vulnerability factors; and the rural population’s social vulnerability mitigation initiatives in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. Social science approaches to human vulnerability draw critical attention to the root causes and factors why people are forced to respond to risks from climate change. A complex social approach to vulnerability is most likely to enhance mitigation and adaptation preparation efforts, given that vulnerability is a multidimensional mechanism rather than an invariable state.
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Ekanem, Jemimah Timothy, and Idongesit Michael Umoh. "Social Vulnerability of Rural Dwellers to Climate Variability: Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria." In African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation, 1–23. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42091-8_232-1.
Full textAbstract:
AbstractFor their livelihood activities, rural farming communities depend more on extractive capital. Their capacity to cultivate sufficiently for their family maintenance is greatly impeded by the absence of either temperature or rainfall quantity pattern or uniformity. The divergent effects of recent extreme weather events around the world, including within relatively small geographical areas, exemplify the unequal impacts of climate change on populations. Akwa Ibom State has been found vulnerable to extreme weather events, such as flooding, severe storms, and rising sea levels, leading to homelessness, poverty, conflicts, and war for millions of people. All of these have resulted in social disturbances and dislocations among rural populations, especially in coastal communities, making them more vulnerable to climate variability. In the field of social vulnerability in the state, not much has been achieved. This chapter analyzes the vulnerability of the rural population to climate variability; the socio-economic characteristics of the rural population; the index of social vulnerability of rural dwellers to climate variability; social vulnerability factors; and the rural population’s social vulnerability mitigation initiatives in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. Social science approaches to human vulnerability draw critical attention to the root causes and factors why people are forced to respond to risks from climate change. A complex social approach to vulnerability is most likely to enhance mitigation and adaptation preparation efforts, given that vulnerability is a multidimensional mechanism rather than an invariable state.
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Lempert, Robert J., Michael E. Schlesinger, Steven C. Bankes, and Natalia G. Andronova. "The Impacts of Climate Variability on Near-Term Policy Choices and the Value of Information." In Societal Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change, 129–61. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-3010-5_8.
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Cyrilo, Eugen, and Claude G. Mung'ong'o. "Assessment of socio-ecological resilience of agropastoralists to climate change and variability impacts in Bariadi district, Tanzania." In Climate change impacts and sustainability: ecosystems of Tanzania, 122–52. Wallingford: CABI, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781789242966.0122.
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Abstract In developing countries like Tanzania, societal vulnerability to the risks of climate change and variability (CC&V) exacerbate ongoing social and economic challenges because people's livelihoods are largely dependent on resources that are sensitive to climate change such as agriculture. Although studies show that most communities in Africa have low adaptive capacity, for centuries people have developed traditional adaptation strategies to face climate inter-annual variability and extreme events based on their long-term experiences. Various studies show how CC&V have impacted the socio-economic and and environmental conditions among the pastoral and agropastoral societies. However, little emphasis has been given to studying the community's resilience status to CC&V impacts. Much of the focus has been placed on studying the community vulnerability and impacts of CC&V as well as coping and adaptation strategies to avert CC&V impacts. Little is known on how the interaction between society and nature can enhance or reduce community resilience under changing climate. The study was conducted in two villages, Ibulyu and Mahaha, in Bariadi District. The main objective of the study was to deepen our understanding of the socio-ecological resilience of agropastoral communities to CC&V impacts in a semi-arid district. The study employed both qualitative and quantitative research designs. Quantitative data were captured through a household survey whereas qualitative data was collected through focus group discussion, key informant interviews and field observation. The results show that CC&V have negatively affected the farming system in the study area. The ecological setting of the area has significantly been altered to the extent that it cannot provide the required ecosystem services and products that are important for human and livestock sustainance. Changes in the production system have negatively affected community resilience and increased their vulnerability.
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Mwasha, Saumu Ibrahim, and Zoe Robinson. "Building Livelihoods Resilience in the Face of Climate Change: Case Study of Small-Holder Farmers in Tanzania." In African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation, 829–48. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_49.
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AbstractThe impacts of climate change are already being felt on human and environmental systems, with the brunt of the impacts being felt by communities in the Global South, particularly small-holder farmers due to their poverty levels and greater direct dependency on natural resources for their livelihoods. Hence, there is a need to understand how to build small-holder farmers’ resilience to climate change. Climate change adaptation strategies need to build livelihood resilience in the face of climate change as well as address the factors that contribute to farmers’ vulnerability. This chapter draws from a mixed-method study conducted in three villages each in a different agro-ecological zone in the Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania, to explore how to build farmers’ livelihood resilience through addressing factors that increase livelihood vulnerability to climate change. These farmers’ livelihoods are vulnerable because of both the impacts of climate variability on the farmers’ livelihood assets and certain social and environmental structures and characteristics. Building small-holder farmers’ livelihood resilience that can ensure the desired levels of livelihood outcomes in the face of climate variability and change, requires integration of strategies across household resource management as well as farm-based livelihood assets, and a holistic rather than piecemeal approach to small-holder farmers’ livelihoods.
Conference papers on the topic "Social impacts of climate change and variability"
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"Impacts of Variability of Climate Datasets on Watershed Hydrology under Changing Climate." In 1st Climate Change Symposium: Adaptation and Mitigation. American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.13031/cc.20152123915.
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"Impacts of Variability of Climate Datasets on Watershed Hydrology under Changing Climate." In ASABE 1st Climate Change Symposium: Adaptation and Mitigation. American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.13031/cc.2015212391.
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Orcesi, Andre, Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga, Olga Markogiannaki, Yue Li, Franck Schoefs, Jorge Ballester, Alan O'Connor, et al. "Investigating the effects of climate change on structural resistance and actions." In IABSE Congress, Ghent 2021: Structural Engineering for Future Societal Needs. Zurich, Switzerland: International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2749/ghent.2021.0974.
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<p>One major issue when considering the effects of climate change is to understand, qualify and quantify how natural hazards and the changing climate will likely impact infrastructure assets and services as it strongly depends on current and future climate variability, location, asset design life, function and condition. So far, there is no well-defined and agreed performance indicator that isolates the effects of climate change for structures. Rather, one can mention some key considerations on how climate change may produce changes of vulnerability due to physical and chemical actions affecting structural durability or changes of the exposure in terms of intensity/frequency of extreme events. This paper considers these two aspects and associated challenges, considering some recent activities of members of the IABSE TG6.1.</p>
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Orcesi, Andre, Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga, Olga Markogiannaki, Yue Li, Franck Schoefs, Jorge Ballester, Alan O'Connor, et al. "Investigating the effects of climate change on structural resistance and actions." In IABSE Congress, Ghent 2021: Structural Engineering for Future Societal Needs. Zurich, Switzerland: International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2749/ghent.2021.0974.
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<p>One major issue when considering the effects of climate change is to understand, qualify and quantify how natural hazards and the changing climate will likely impact infrastructure assets and services as it strongly depends on current and future climate variability, location, asset design life, function and condition. So far, there is no well-defined and agreed performance indicator that isolates the effects of climate change for structures. Rather, one can mention some key considerations on how climate change may produce changes of vulnerability due to physical and chemical actions affecting structural durability or changes of the exposure in terms of intensity/frequency of extreme events. This paper considers these two aspects and associated challenges, considering some recent activities of members of the IABSE TG6.1.</p>
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Dissanayaka, K. D. C. R., and R. L. H. L. Rajapakse. "CLIMATE EXTREMES AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS IN KELANI RIVER BASIN, SRI LANKA AND IMPACTS ON STREAMFLOW VARIABILITY UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE." In International Conference on Climate Change. The International Institute of Knowledge Management - TIIKM, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.17501/2513258x.2018.2201.
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Asadnabizadeh, Majid. "Status of Impacts of Extreme Climate Events at the UN Climate Change Conference (Cop25)." In 3rd International Conference on Research in Social Sciences. GLOBALKS, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.33422/3rd.rssconf.2020.11.101.
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DIOP, MBARECK. "REGIONAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON WEST AND CENTRAL AFRICAN REGION." In International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies 38th Session. WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789812834645_0057.
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Galkin, Denis G. "Climate Change: Impacts And Adaptation For Agriculture In Altai Territory." In II International Conference on Economic and Social Trends for Sustainability of Modern Society. European Publisher, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2021.09.02.287.
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Erdélyi, Dániel. "Climate change among the least developed." In The Challenges of Analyzing Social and Economic Processes in the 21st Century. Szeged: Szegedi Tudományegyetem Gazdaságtudományi Kar, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.14232/casep21c.12.
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Climate Change is a global phenomenon that has geographically varying impacts. To fulfill Hungary’s climate obligations and implement effective adaptation practices, we need to understand the working mechanism of climate change in smaller territorial units. Regional differentiating is of paramount importance in regional strategy making. As part of an on-going research that aims to identify the local impacts of climate change and the local answers against it, this paper is analyzing the local properties and opportunities of the case study of Sarkad LAU 1 region. Sarkad region is one of the most underdeveloped yet one of the richest areas in natural resources like biodiversity, landscape, and cultural heritage. This duality highlights the need to act against the negative outcomes of climate change. The local main climate effects of climate change are indicated by using the cartograms of the National Adaptation and Geoinformation System database. It is crucial to identify the local vulnerability in order to take effective measurements promoting adaptivity and mitigation. As a result of the research, the unique properties of the LAU 1 region the ways of adaptation in connection with climate change are indicated.
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Nemaniute-Guziene, Jolanta, and Justas Kazys. "Climate Change and Lithuanian Roads: Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation." In Environmental Engineering. VGTU Technika, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/enviro.2017.138.
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In Lithuania, like in other countries, climate change causes and will cause changes in natural and anthropogenic environment. The entire transport sector will be impacted, influencing the way it plans, designs, constructs and maintains infrastructure in the future. Roads are already sensitive to current climate variability. If today’s extreme weather events become both more frequent and extreme, so too will the level of disruption that they cause. Thus, roads must be adapted to changing climate conditions. The aim is to ensure resilience, to ensure that roads remain open under extreme weather conditions. The easiest and the most effective economically way is to implement adaptation measures for the new or reconstructed roads. But the existing older roads should be adapted also. The steps required to improve and maintain resilience of roads are definition of climate projections, identification of key roads and their vulnerability, identification and research on technologies for adaptation, preparation of methodologies, establishment of field operational trials. The aim of the research is to review Lithuanian roads in the context of climate change and its consequences. Methodology: climate and associated data collection and review, initial prognoses of the change (in short, medium and long term perspective) of meteorological elements, vulnerability assessment of the study area and the roads. Results: initial recommendations for adaptation action planning.
Reports on the topic "Social impacts of climate change and variability"
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White, Andrew, and Howard D. Passell. Climate Change Science Review 2018 and Associated Social and Economic Impacts. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), April 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1614962.
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Janowiak, Maria, Daniel Dostie, Michael Wilson, Michael Kucera, Howard Skinner, Jerry Hatfield, David Hollinger, and Christopher Swanston. Adaptation Resources for Agriculture: Responding to Climate Variability and Change in the Midwest and Northeast. United States Department of Agriculture, January 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2018.6960275.ch.
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Changes in climate and extreme weather are already increasing challenges for agriculture nationally and
globally, and many of these impacts will continue into the future. This technical bulletin contains information and resources designed to help agricultural producers, service providers, and educators in the Midwest and Northeast regions of the United States integrate climate change considerations and action-oriented decisions into existing farm and conservation plans. An Adaptation Workbook provides producers a flexible, structured process to identify and assess climate change impacts, challenges, opportunities, and farm-level adaptation tactics and continuously evaluate adaptation actions for improving responses to extreme and uncertain conditions. A synthesis of Adaptation Strategies and Approaches serves as a “menu” of potential responses organized to provide a clear rationale for making decisions by connecting planned actions to broad adaptation concepts. Responses address both short- and long-range timeframes and extend from incremental adjustments of existing practices to major alterations that transform the entire farm operation. Example adaptation tactics—prescriptive actions for agricultural production systems common in the region—for each approach guide producers, service
providers, and educators to develop appropriate responses for their farms and location. Four Adaptation
Examples demonstrate how these adaptation process resources are used.
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Cooper, Rachel. Water, Climate Change, and Conflict. Institute of Development Studies (IDS), June 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.19088/k4d.2022.030.
Full textAbstract:
There is a growing global water crisis and that this is one of the of the most significant threats the world is facing. Climate change is one of the key drivers of the water crisis as it changes the global water cycle, increases variability in availability and water stress and scarcity, as well as degrading water quality. Water can also be a risk for conflict and instability. It can also be a trigger for conflict at the local level. However, a range of factors and intervening variables are likely to influence whether conflict arises. At the international level, whilst political tensions in some basins are, water historically has more often led to cooperation than conflict between countries. This paper considers interactions between water, climate change and conflict as a spectrum that includes protests, through political tensions to violent conflict, at different scalar levels of analysis. However, the local, intrastate and international levels are linked. This rapid literature review provides a snapshot of this literature and largely focuses on literature from 2017 onwards. Whilst in the literature, water and climate change are often linked to conflict and instability through climate change’s impacts on water security, the consensus in the literature reviewed for this report is that this does not mean there are direct causal linkages. Establishing whether or not incidences of water-related conflict, or conflict over water is increasing, is challenging and contested.
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Aalto, Juha, and Ari Venäläinen, eds. Climate change and forest management affect forest fire risk in Fennoscandia. Finnish Meteorological Institute, June 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.35614/isbn.9789523361355.
Full textAbstract:
Forest and wildland fires are a natural part of ecosystems worldwide, but large fires in particular can cause societal, economic and ecological disruption. Fires are an important source of greenhouse gases and black carbon that can further amplify and accelerate climate change. In recent years, large forest fires in Sweden demonstrate that the issue should also be considered in other parts of Fennoscandia. This final report of the project “Forest fires in Fennoscandia under changing climate and forest cover (IBA ForestFires)” funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, synthesises current knowledge of the occurrence, monitoring, modelling and suppression of forest fires in Fennoscandia. The report also focuses on elaborating the role of forest fires as a source of black carbon (BC) emissions over the Arctic and discussing the importance of international collaboration in tackling forest fires. The report explains the factors regulating fire ignition, spread and intensity in Fennoscandian conditions. It highlights that the climate in Fennoscandia is characterised by large inter-annual variability, which is reflected in forest fire risk. Here, the majority of forest fires are caused by human activities such as careless handling of fire and ignitions related to forest harvesting. In addition to weather and climate, fuel characteristics in forests influence fire ignition, intensity and spread. In the report, long-term fire statistics are presented for Finland, Sweden and the Republic of Karelia. The statistics indicate that the amount of annually burnt forest has decreased in Fennoscandia. However, with the exception of recent large fires in Sweden, during the past 25 years the annually burnt area and number of fires have been fairly stable, which is mainly due to effective fire mitigation. Land surface models were used to investigate how climate change and forest management can influence forest fires in the future. The simulations were conducted using different regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Simulations, extending to 2100, indicate that forest fire risk is likely to increase over the coming decades. The report also highlights that globally, forest fires are a significant source of BC in the Arctic, having adverse health effects and further amplifying climate warming. However, simulations made using an atmospheric dispersion model indicate that the impact of forest fires in Fennoscandia on the environment and air quality is relatively minor and highly seasonal. Efficient forest fire mitigation requires the development of forest fire detection tools including satellites and drones, high spatial resolution modelling of fire risk and fire spreading that account for detailed terrain and weather information. Moreover, increasing the general preparedness and operational efficiency of firefighting is highly important. Forest fires are a large challenge requiring multidisciplinary research and close cooperation between the various administrative operators, e.g. rescue services, weather services, forest organisations and forest owners is required at both the national and international level.
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Erkamo, Sanna, Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola, Atte Harjanne, and Heikki Tuomenvirta. Climate Security and Finland – A Review on Security Implications of Climate Change from the Finnish Perspective. Finnish Meteorological Institute, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.35614/isbn.9789523361362.
Full textAbstract:
This report describes the effects of climate change for Finland from the view of comprehensive security. The report examines both direct and indirect climate security risks as well as transition risks related to climate change mitigation. The report is based on previous research and expert interviews. Direct security risks refer to the immediate risks caused by the changing nature of natural hazards. These include the risks to critical infrastructure and energy systems, the logistics system, health and food security. Indirect security risks relate to the potential economic, political and geopolitical impacts of climate change. Climate change can affect global migration, increase conflict risk, and cause social tensions and inequality. Transition risks are related to economic and technological changes in energy transition, as well as political and geopolitical tensions and social problems caused by climate change mitigation policies. Reducing the use of fossil fuels can result in domestic and foreign policy tensions and economic pressure especially in locations dependent on fossil fuels. Political tension can also increase the risks associated with hybrid and information warfare. The security effects of climate change affect all sectors of society and the Finnish comprehensive security model should be utilized in preparing for them. In the short run, the most substantial arising climate change related security risks in Finland are likely to occur through indirect or transition risks. Finland, similar to other wealthy countries, has better technological, economic and institutional conditions to deal with the problems and risks posed by climate change than many other countries. However, this requires political will and focus on risk reduction and management.
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Wiener, Sarah, Gabrielle Roesch-McNally, and Rachel Schattman. National Survey of USDA Field Staff on Climate and Weather. United States Department of Agriculture Climate Hubs, April 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2018.6938607.ch.
Full textAbstract:
In November/December of 2016, a survey collaboratively designed by the USDA Climate Hubs, FSA, and the University of Vermont was administered to capture FSA field staffs' beliefs and attitudes related to climate change and potential impacts, as well as their perceptions about the risk that weather variability poses for U.S. farmers.
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Eise, Jessica, Natalie Lambert, Tiwaladeoluwa Adekunle, and Laura Eise. More Inclusive, More Practical: Climate Change Communication Research to Serve the Future. Purdue University, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.5703/1288284317278.
Full textAbstract:
Climate change impacts are being felt around the world, threatening human well-being and global food security. Social scientists in communication and other fields, in tandem with physical scientists, are critical for implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies effectively and equitably. In the face of rapidly evolving circumstances, it is time to take stock of our current climate change communication research and look toward where we need to go. Based on our systematic review of mid- to current climate change research trends in communication as well as climate change response recommendations by the American Meteorological Society, we suggest future directions for research. We urgently recommend communication research that (1) addresses immediate mitigation and adaptation concerns in local communities and (2) is more geographically diverse, particularly focusing on the African continent, the Caribbean, Latin America, the Middle East and certain parts of Asia.
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Sett, Dominic, Florian Waldschmidt, Alvaro Rojas-Ferreira, Saut Sagala, Teresa Arce Mojica, Preeti Koirala, Patrick Sanady, et al. Climate and disaster risk analytics tool for adaptive social protection. United Nations University - Institute for Environment and Human Security, March 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.53324/wnsg2302.
Full textAbstract:
Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) as discussed in this report is an approach to enhance the well-being of communities at risk. As an integrated approach, ASP builds on the interface of Disaster Risk Management (DRM), Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Social Protection (SP) to address interconnected risks by building resilience, thereby overcoming the shortcomings of traditionally sectoral approaches. The design of meaningful ASP measures needs to be informed by specific information on risk, risk drivers and impacts on communities at risk. In contrast, a limited understanding of risk and its drivers can potentially lead to maladaptation practices. Therefore, multidimensional risk assessments are vital for the successful implementation of ASP. Although many sectoral tools to assess risks exist, available integrated risk assessment methods across sectors are still inadequate in the context of ASP, presenting an important research and implementation gap. ASP is now gaining international momentum, making the timely development of a comprehensive risk analytics tool even more important, including in Indonesia, where nationwide implementation of ASP is currently under way. OBJECTIVE: To address this gap, this study explores the feasibility of a climate and disaster risk analytics tool for ASP (CADRAT-ASP), combining sectoral risk assessment in the context of ASP with a more comprehensive risk analytics approach. Risk analytics improve the understanding of risks by locating and quantifying the potential impacts of disasters. For example, the Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) framework quantifies probable current and expected future impacts of extreme events and determines the monetary cost and benefits of specific risk management and adaptation measures. Using the ECA framework, this report examines the viability and practicality of applying a quantitative risk analytics approach for non-financial and non-tangible assets that were identified as central to ASP. This quantitative approach helps to identify cost-effective interventions to support risk-informed decision making for ASP. Therefore, we used Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, as a case study, to identify potential entry points and examples for the further development and application of such an approach. METHODS & RESULTS: The report presents an analysis of central risks and related impacts on communities in the context of ASP. In addition, central social protection dimensions (SPD) necessary for the successful implementation of ASP and respective data needs from a theoretical perspective are identified. The application of the quantitative ECA framework is tested for tropical storms in the context of ASP, providing an operational perspective on technical feasibility. Finally, recommendations on further research for the potential application of a suitable ASP risk analytics tool in Indonesia are proposed. Results show that the ECA framework and its quantitative modelling platform CLIMADA successfully quantified the impact of tropical storms on four SPDs. These SPDs (income, access to health, access to education and mobility) were selected based on the results from the Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability Assessment (HEVA) conducted to support the development of an ASP roadmap for the Republic of Indonesia (UNU-EHS 2022, forthcoming). The SPDs were modelled using remote sensing, gridded data and available global indices. The results illustrate the value of the outcome to inform decision making and a better allocation of resources to deliver ASP to the case study area. RECOMMENDATIONS: This report highlights strong potential for the application of the ECA framework in the ASP context. The impact of extreme weather events on four social protection dimensions, ranging from access to health care and income to education and mobility, were successfully quantified. In addition, further developments of CADRAT-ASP can be envisaged to improve modelling results and uptake of this tool in ASP implementation. Recommendations are provided for four central themes: mainstreaming the CADRAT approach into ASP, data and information needs for the application of CADRAT-ASP, methodological advancements of the ECA framework to support ASP and use of CADRAT-ASP for improved resilience-building. Specific recommendations are given, including the integration of additional hazards, such as flood, drought or heatwaves, for a more comprehensive outlook on potential risks. This would provide a broader overview and allow for multi-hazard risk planning. In addition, high-resolution local data and stakeholder involvement can increase both ownership and the relevance of SPDs. Further recommendations include the development of a database and the inclusion of climate and socioeconomic scenarios in analyses.
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Naess, Lars Otto, Jan Selby, and Gabrielle Daoust. Climate Resilience and Social Assistance in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Settings. Institute of Development Studies (IDS), February 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.19088/basic.2022.002.
Full textAbstract:
This paper aims to improve our understanding of the nature, causes, and multiple dimensions of how social assistance may address climate vulnerability and resilience within fragile and conflict-affected settings (FCAS), as part of the inception phase of the Better Assistance in Crises (BASIC) Research programme. Over recent years, social assistance, such as cash transfers and voucher programmes, has been seen as a way of reducing the impacts of climate-related shocks and stressors, and of increasing the resilience of recipient households and communities. It has also been seen as a mechanism for delivering adaptation funding, showing promise in tackling short-term shocks as well as longer-term adaptation to climate change. Yet despite FCAS hosting some of the most vulnerable populations in the world, so far there has been little attention to these settings. We examine the linkages between social assistance and climate resilience in FCAS and in turn, implications for BASIC Research. Specifically, we ask what the evidence is on whether existing approaches to social assistance are appropriate to reducing climate vulnerabilities and building climate resilience in FCAS, and, if not, how they might be reformed. We address this through three sub-questions. First, what are the major conceptual discussions on climate resilience and social assistance, and what is the extent of work in FCAS? This is addressed in section 2.1, based on an extensive literature review. Second, to what extent does the literature on social assistance and climate resilience apply to the particular concerns of FCAS? This is covered in section 2.2, based on a framework informed by work in political economy and political ecology. Third, what are possible future research directions? We conclude with reflections on what BASIC Research may contribute in section 3.
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Mote, Philip W., John Abatzoglou, Kathie D. Dello, Katherine Hegewisch, and David E. Rupp. Fourth Oregon climate assessment report. State of climate science : 2019. Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Oregon State University, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.5399/osu/1159.
Full textAbstract:
This report, required by state law under HB3543, provides a comprehensive assessment of the state of science of climate change as it pertains to Oregon, covering the physical, biological, and social dimensions. The first chapter summarizes the current state of knowledge of physical changes in climate and hydrology, focusing on the period since the previous Oregon Climate Assessment Report (OCAR3, Dalton et al. 2017); and the second chapter covers the impacts. The second chapter is, verbatim, the Northwest chapter of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) which was released by the federal government November 23, 2018. It is available for download separately: https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads/NCA4_Ch24_Northwest_Full.pdf