Academic literature on the topic 'Simple climate model'
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Journal articles on the topic "Simple climate model"
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Garzoli, K. "A SIMPLE GREENHOUSE CLIMATE MODEL." Acta Horticulturae, no. 174 (December 1985): 393–400. http://dx.doi.org/10.17660/actahortic.1985.174.52.
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TSUTSUI, Junichi. "SEEPLUS: A SIMPLE ONLINE CLIMATE MODEL." Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research) 67, no. 3 (2011): 134–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.2208/jscejer.67.134.
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Kováč, Eugen, and Robert C. Schmidt. "A simple dynamic climate cooperation model." Journal of Public Economics 194 (February 2021): 104329. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104329.
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Rombouts, J., and M. Ghil. "Oscillations in a simple climate–vegetation model." Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 22, no. 3 (May 7, 2015): 275–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-275-2015.
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Abstract. We formulate and analyze a simple dynamical systems model for climate–vegetation interaction. The planet we consider consists of a large ocean and a land surface on which vegetation can grow. The temperature affects vegetation growth on land and the amount of sea ice on the ocean. Conversely, vegetation and sea ice change the albedo of the planet, which in turn changes its energy balance and hence the temperature evolution. Our highly idealized, conceptual model is governed by two nonlinear, coupled ordinary differential equations, one for global temperature, the other for vegetation cover. The model exhibits either bistability between a vegetated and a desert state or oscillatory behavior. The oscillations arise through a Hopf bifurcation off the vegetated state, when the death rate of vegetation is low enough. These oscillations are anharmonic and exhibit a sawtooth shape that is characteristic of relaxation oscillations, as well as suggestive of the sharp deglaciations of the Quaternary. Our model's behavior can be compared, on the one hand, with the bistability of even simpler, Daisyworld-style climate–vegetation models. On the other hand, it can be integrated into the hierarchy of models trying to simulate and explain oscillatory behavior in the climate system. Rigorous mathematical results are obtained that link the nature of the feedbacks with the nature and the stability of the solutions. The relevance of model results to climate variability on various timescales is discussed.
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Rombouts, J., and M. Ghil. "Oscillations in a simple climate–vegetation model." Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Discussions 2, no. 1 (February 2, 2015): 145–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npgd-2-145-2015.
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Abstract. We formulate and analyze a simple dynamical systems model for climate–vegetation interaction. The planet we consider consists of a large ocean and a land surface on which vegetation can grow. The temperature affects vegetation growth on land and the amount of sea ice on the ocean. Conversely, vegetation and sea ice change the albedo of the planet, which in turn changes its energy balance and hence the temperature evolution. Our highly idealized, conceptual model is governed by two nonlinear, coupled ordinary differential equations, one for global temperature, the other for vegetation cover. The model exhibits either bistability between a vegetated and a desert state or oscillatory behavior. The oscillations arise through a Hopf bifurcation off the vegetated state, when the death rate of vegetation is low enough. These oscillations are anharmonic and exhibit a sawtooth shape that is characteristic of relaxation oscillations, as well as suggestive of the sharp deglaciations of the Quaternary. Our model's behavior can be compared, on the one hand, with the bistability of even simpler, Daisyworld-style climate–vegetation models. On the other hand, it can be integrated into the hierarchy of models trying to simulate and explain oscillatory behavior in the climate system. Rigorous mathematical results are obtained that link the nature of the feedbacks with the nature and the stability of the solutions. The relevance of model results to climate variability on various time scales is discussed.
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Chaumont, Sébastien, Peter Imkeller, Matthias Müller, and Ulrich Horst. "A Simple Model for Trading Climate Risk." Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 74, no. 2 (April 2005): 175–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.3790/vjh.74.2.175.
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Emanuel, Kerry. "A simple model of multiple climate regimes." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 107, no. D9 (May 8, 2002): ACL 4–1—ACL 4–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2001jd001002.
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Schwarber, Adria K., Steven J. Smith, Corinne A. Hartin, Benjamin Aaron Vega-Westhoff, and Ryan Sriver. "Evaluating climate emulation: fundamental impulse testing of simple climate models." Earth System Dynamics 10, no. 4 (November 13, 2019): 729–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-729-2019.
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Abstract. Simple climate models (SCMs) are numerical representations of the Earth's gas cycles and climate system. SCMs are easy to use and computationally inexpensive, making them an ideal tool in both scientific and decision-making contexts (e.g., complex climate model emulation, parameter estimation experiments, climate metric calculations, and probabilistic analyses). Despite their prolific use, the fundamental responses of SCMs are often not directly characterized. In this study, we use fundamental impulse tests of three chemical species (CO2, CH4, and black carbon – BC) to understand the fundamental gas cycle and climate system responses of several comprehensive (Hector v2.0, MAGICC 5.3, MAGICC 6.0) and idealized (FAIR v1.0, AR5-IR) SCMs. We find that while idealized SCMs are widely used, they fail to capture the magnitude and timescales of global mean climate responses under emissions perturbations, which can produce biased temperature results. Comprehensive SCMs, which have physically based nonlinear forcing and carbon cycle representations, show improved responses compared to idealized SCMs. Even the comprehensive SCMs, however, fail to capture the response timescales to BC emission perturbations seen recently in two general circulation models. Some comprehensive SCMs also generally respond faster than more complex models to a 4×CO2 concentration perturbation, although this was not evident for lower perturbation levels. These results suggest where improvements should be made to SCMs. Further, we demonstrate here a set of fundamental tests that we recommend as a standard evaluation suite for any SCM. Fundamental impulse tests allow users to understand differences in model responses and the impact of model selection on results.
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SZILDER, Krzysztof, Kimiteru SADO, and Edward P. LOZOWSKI. "Climate Stability in a Simple Climate Model with a Hydrological Cycle." Journal of Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources 9, no. 1 (1996): 68–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.3178/jjshwr.9.68.
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Monckton of Brenchley, Christopher, Willie W. H. Soon, David R. Legates, and William M. Briggs. "Keeping it simple: the value of an irreducibly simple climate model." Science Bulletin 60, no. 15 (August 2015): 1378–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11434-015-0856-2.
Full textDissertations / Theses on the topic "Simple climate model"
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Abiven, Claude. "Studies of climate variability in a simple coupled model." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/40977.
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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, 2007.Includes bibliographical references (p. 74-76).
The mechanisms of variability of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model are investigated through the study of two coupled configurations: an aquaplanet in which gyres are absent, and an aquaplanet in which a ridge extending from pole to pole supports gyres. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) are used to explore the main features of variability exhibited by extended integrations of both configurations. In the aquaplanet a decadal variability is observed in the atmosphere and the ocean. Stochastic driving of the annular modes in the atmosphere generates an anomalous Sea Surface Temperature (SST) dipole through latent heat fluxes and Ekman pumping. A feedback of this SST dipole on the atmosphere enables a damping slow enough for anomalies to persist over decadal time scales. This air-sea feedback combined with a slow advection of the anomalies by mean ocean currents result in the observed decadal oscillation. A simple stochastic model captures the essence of this mechanism. In the ridge decadal variability is absent but centennial variability is observed in the atmosphere and the ocean. Stochastic driving of the annular modes in the atmosphere generates a weak SST tripole due to latent heat fluxes. The weak amplitude of this tripole prevents the existence of any significant air-sea feedback, implies a stronger damping than in the aquaplanet, and ultimately results in the absence of oscillations. The classic stochastic model of Hasselmann [19] explains the evolution of the SST anomaly through time. Within a delay of one year stochastic atmospheric variability additionally generates a baroclinic streamfunction as well as baroclinic Rossby waves at the eastern boundary of the basin. The former is slowly advected by the mean flow while the latter propagates towards the western boundary, inducing a feedback on the atmosphere with a delay of sixty years. A simple model is found to capture the essence of this mechanism. The results of the aquaplanet and the ridge are used to interpret the Drake, a third configuration in which a band of land extends from the North Pole to the line of -45' of latitude. In the northern hemisphere of the Drake mean state and variability are similar to the ones observed in the ridge. The observed centennial oscillation would correspond to a decadal oscillation in the Atlantic. In the southern hemisphere of the Drake, mean state and variability have elements of both the ridge and the aquaplanet.
by Claude Abiven.
S.M.
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Ingram, William. "A simple physically-based model for the water vapour feedback on climate change with applications." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.496977.
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Wang, Zhaomin. "A simple coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land surface-ice sheet model for climate and paleoclimate studies." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape9/PQDD_0020/NQ55391.pdf.
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Wang, Zhaomin 1963. "A simple coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land surface-ice sheet model for climate and paleoclimate studies /." Thesis, McGill University, 1999. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=36068.
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We develop a new coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land surface-ice sheet model for long-term climate change studies. This five-component model incorporates the seasonal cycle, and the three major ocean basins, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region and the major continents are resolved. The model variables are sectorially averaged across the different ocean basins and continents.The above coupled model (less the ice sheet component) is first used to simulate the major features of the present day climate. In a global warming (cooling) experiment, the thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic Ocean is weakened (intensified) due to the increased (reduced) moisture transport to, and warmer (cooler) sea surface temperatures at northern high latitudes.
Secondly, the above four-component model is employed to investigate the initiation of glaciation, which is accomplished by reducing the solar radiation and increasing the planetary emissivity only in high northern latitudes. When land ice is growing, the THC in the North Atlantic Ocean is intensified, resulting in a warm subpolar North Atlantic Ocean. The intensified THC maintains a large land-ocean thermal contrast at high latitudes, which leads to enhanced land ice accumulation. We conclude that increased fresh water or massive iceberg discharge from land is responsible for a weak or collapsed THC.
Lastly, a dynamic ice sheet model is coupled to the above four-component model. Sensitivity experiments show that a smaller lateral (east-west) ice discharge rate maintains a larger ice volume and extent in our model. Also, a reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration, which is parameterized as an increased planetary emissivity, may lead to the expansion of the ice sheets and hence a larger ice volume and extent. A simple iceberg calving scheme is next introduced to investigate ice sheet-THC interactions on the millennial timescale. We find that the longer the duration of iceberg calving, the longer the time that must elapse before the next calving event can occur. Also, it is shown that the strength of the THC in the North Atlantic Ocean is very sensitive to the discharge rate of the ice sheets. This makes the simulation of the interactions between ice sheets and the THC extremely challenging.
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Entekhabi, Dara 1961. "Landsurface hydrology parameterization for atmospheric general circulation models : inclusion of subgrid scale spatial variability and screening with a simple climate model." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/17246.
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Kim, Dong Eon. "Approche simple et novatrice pour l’évaluation des inondations dans un contexte pauvre en données : solutions alternatives aux MNT haute résolution et aux données locales de précipitation." Thesis, Université Côte d'Azur (ComUE), 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019AZUR4029.
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De nombreuses villes d’Asie du Sud-Est subissent de graves inondations liées d’une part à l’intensité croissante des précipitations et d’autre part à une urbanisation rapide souvent due à une planification urbaine non maitrisée. L'évaluation quantitative des risques d'inondation nécessite deux éléments essentiels : (1) un modèle numérique de terrain (MNT) haute définition, et (2) une chronologie de précipitations la plus longue possible. Un MNT haute définition est à la fois coûteux et long à acquérir. Les chronologies de précipitations longues sont fréquemment indisponibles dans de nombreux sites et ne présentent pas toujours une durée suffisante pour une définition pertinente des valeurs extrêmes. Cette thèse présente une approche opérationnelle pour générer des MNT haute définition et suggère une stratégie pour définir des pluies extrêmes en dehors de chronologies de précipitations longues. Des données pour la production des MNT issues de capteurs satellitaires - mission SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) et images multi spectrales Sentinel 2 - ont été utilisées et mises en œuvre. Un réseau de neurones artificiels (ANN) est utilisé afin d'améliorer la qualité du MNT. Dans la phase d’apprentissage du réseau de neurones, la qualité des MNE utilisés comme référence est essentielle et conditionne la performance de l’outil dans son application ultérieure. A la suite de cet apprentissage, le réseau de neurones peut être mis en œuvre pour générer, à faible coût, des MNT haute résolution dans des secteurs où les données sont partiellement indisponibles.Les performances de la méthode d’amélioration du MNT sont évaluées dans des différents secteurs caractérisés par des occupations du sol variées (secteur urbain dense, secteurs boisés par exemple) et dans différents pays (Nice, France, Singapour, Jakarta, Indonésie). La qualité des résultats est analysée avec différents indicateurs tels que les diagrammes de dispersion, la clarté visuelle, l’erreur quadratique moyenne (RMSE) et l’adéquation avec les réseaux de drainage réels. Le MNT issu des données SRTM améliorées montre (1) une qualité nettement supérieure au MNT initial puisque le RMSE passe de 34% à 57% du RMSE ; (2) la clarté visuelle est largement améliorée ; et (3) le réseau de drainage calculé correspond davantage au réseau réel. La production de ce MNT amélioré permet une meilleure modélisation des processus d’inondation et augmente la qualité des résultats des simulations hydrauliques. Des données de précipitation issues d'un Modèle Climatologique Régional (RCM) haute résolution spatiale ainsi que des prévisions issues de données ERA-Interim (WRF / ERAI) ont été extraites, analysées et comparées avec les observations haute résolution enregistrées à Singapour. Les comparaisons ont également été effectuées avec les courbes Intensité-Durée-Fréquence (IDF) qui sont utilisées pour l'évaluation des risques d'inondation. Les résultats sont très satisfaisants et valident les données produites par le modèle régional. Cette validation permet d’utiliser les données pluviométriques issues du modèle régional pour le site de la métropole de Jakarta (Indonésie) où les enregistrements pluviométriques ne sont pas disponibles pour la production des courbes IDF.Un modèle hydraulique détaillé a été construit avec le système de modélisation MIKE 21 pour toute la métropole de Jakarta à partir d’un MNT amélioré et des précipitations associées à des périodes de retour de 50 et 100 ans. Des cartes d’inondation ont été générées et sont utilisées par les services gestionnaires. Cet exemple démontre que les nouvelles méthodes et approches proposées dans cette thèse sont pertinentes pour produire une évaluation des risques d’inondation pertinente lorsque des données locales (MNT haute résolution et données pluviométriques sur une période longue) sont insuffisantes ou indisponiblesMany urban cities in Southeast Asia witness severe flooding associated to increasing rainfall intensity and rapid urbanization often due to poor urban planning. Two important inputs required in flood hazard assessment are: (1) high accuracy Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and (2) long rainfall record. High accuracy DEM is both expensive and time consuming to acquire. Long rainfall records for areas of interest are often not available or not sufficiently long to determine the probable extremes. This thesis presents a notably cost-effective and efficient approach to derive high accuracy DEM, and suggests proxies for long rainfall data.DEM data from a publicly accessible satellite, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and Sentinel 2 multispectral imagery are selected and used to train the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to improve the quality of the DEM. In the training of ANN, high quality observed DEM is the key leading to a well-trained ANN. The trained ANN will then be ready to efficiently and effectively generate high quality DEM, at low cost, for places where DEM data is not available.The performance of the DEM improvement scheme is evaluated in places of various land-use types (e.g. dense urban city, forested areas), and in different countries (Nice, France; Singapore; Jakarta, Indonesia) through various matrices, e.g. whenever possible visual clarity, scatter plots, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and/or drainage networks. The DEM resulting from the latest version of improved SRTM (iSRTM_v2 DEM) shows (1) significantly better than the original SRTM DEM, a 34 % to 57 % RMSE reduction; (2) the visual clarity is so much clearer as well; and (3) much closer drainage network with the actual. The much improved DEM allows flood modelling to proceed with high confidence.Rainfall data resulting from a high spatial resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM), Weather Research and Forecasting driven by ERA-Interim (WRF/ERAI) dataset, is extracted, analyzed, and compared its accuracy with high quality observed rainfall data of Singapore. The comparisons are performed, among others, on their Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves, the essential design curves for flood risk assessment; they matched quite well. The rainfall data (from the RCM) are then used as proxies for Greater Jakarta (Indonesia), where no rainfall data made available, to derive the IDF curves required for the flood analysis.MIKE 21 Flow Model Flexible Mesh (MIKE 21 FM) is applied to Greater Jakarta, with input data from the above mentioned much improved DEM and precipitation proxy data, for flood simulations of 2 return periods (50- and 100-years). Finally flood maps are generated. This demonstrates the applications of the approaches/methodologies, proposed in this thesis, on catchments where most essential data for flood risk assessment (high resolution and high accuracy DEM and long and high accuracy rainfall data) are not available.This thesis should be of interest to readers in the areas of remote sensing, artificial intelligence and flood management, especially for the policy makers in proposing relevant flood mitigation measures under climate change with increasing devastating flood damages and casualties
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Zeng, Ning. "Climatic impact of Amazon deforestation: A study of underlying mechanism through simple modeling." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1994. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/186999.
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An intermediate level model for tropical climatology including atmosphere-land-ocean interaction is developed. The model contains basically linearized steady state primitive equations with simplified thermodynamics. A simple hydrological cycle is also included. Special attention has been paid to land surface processes in attempting to study climate change caused by Amazon deforestation. In comparison with previous simple modeling work on tropical climatology or anomaly, the present model is more sophisticated in the sense that it predicts all the important meteorological variables with little input, while being computationally simple. The modeled tropical climatology appears to be realistic. The model generally better simulates the ENSO anomaly compared to many previous simple model simulations. We provide analysis of model results and discuss model deficiencies and possible improvements of the model. The climatic impact of Amazon deforestation is studied in the context of this model. Model results show a much weakened Atlantic Walker/Hadley circulation as a result of the existence of a strong positive feedback loop in the atmospheric circulation system and the hydrological cycle. The regional climate is very sensitive to albedo change and sensitive to evapotranspiration change. The pure dynamical effect of surface roughness on convergence is small, but the surface flow anomaly displays intriguing features. Analysis of the thermodynamic equation reveals the balance among convective heating, adiabatic cooling and radiation largely determines the deforestation response. The model provides a plausible mechanism for the common results of many GCM simulations. Studies of the consequences of hypothetical continuous deforestation suggest that the replacement of forest by desert may be able to sustain a desert-like climate. When a simple mixed layer ocean model is coupled with the atmospheric model, the results suggest a 1 °C decrease in SST gradient across the equatorial Atlantic ocean in response to Amazon deforestation. The magnitude of the decrease depends on the coupling strength.
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Beater, Anne Brenda. "The applicability of two simple single event rainfall-runoff models to catchments with different climate and physiography." Thesis, Rhodes University, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001896.
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The study presents the results of applying two isolated event, constant runoff proportion, conceptual models to a range of catchments drawn from various climatic and physiographic regions of South Africa and the USA. The models can be operated in either lumped or semi-distributed modes. The research progressed through the following stages. The initial stage involved the calibration of both models on two sets of catchments so that an initial evaluation of the performance of the models could be carried out and any deficiencies in the model structure identified, and where practical, corrected. The models were then calibrated on a further 8 catchments. An important result of the calibration is that for both models to produce reasonably acceptable simulations, at least one parameter has to vary between storms on the same catchment to account for variations in storm or antecedent moisture characteristics. The next stage consisted of compiling quantitative descriptions of the physical characteristics of the catchments and rainfall events and an attempt to relate the calibrated parameter values to relevant physical characteristics for the purpose of estimating parameter values when calibration is not possible. Despite the difficulties encountered in quantifying some of the hydrological characteristics the general trends exhibited by many of the relationships are encouraging and the format of the combinations of physical variables used, do make sense with respect to the original parameter conceptualisations. The relationships between storm characteristics and parameters of both models are less satisfactory. There is a high degree of scatter and the between-catchment variation in the form of the relationships, indicates that the derived relationships are likely to be of little use for parameter estimation purposes. The final stage involved a validation exercise in which new parameters were estimated from the physical variable-parameter relationships for all the catchments previously used, as well as a further four. The new parameters were used to re-simulate all the storms and comparison of these results were made with the original calibration results. Both models produced poor results and are unlikely to give reliable results where calibration is not possible. The parameter relationships for the parameters related to storm characteristics are so catchment specific that transfer to other areas will produce unpredictable results. Foot note:- For compatability with computer printouts decimal full stops are used in the format of real numbers in tables etc
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Bateman, Brooke Lee. "Beyond simple means: integrating extreme events and biotic interactions in species distribution models: conservation implications for the northern bettong (Bettongia tropica) under climate change." Thesis, 2010. https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/19015/1/01front.pdf.
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In order to adopt pertinent management strategies for a species, it is imperative to have an understanding of its distribution and requirements. Species distribution models (SDMs) are broadly applied in ecological studies to generate hypotheses on both current and future distributions of a species. These models utilise statistical approaches to link where a species occurs with environmental data from those locations to infer hypotheses about factors limiting the species' distribution. SDMs have many applications in conservation biology, including being one of the few tools capable of predicting the impacts of climate change on a species. However, applications of SDMs are often limited to using long-term climate means and some measure of variability to represent 'environment'. Although climate is an important factor determining a species distribution, it is not the sole driver. These models exclude important influences such as biotic interactions, physiological limitations, and extreme weather events. Models based only on long-term climate overlook these factors. As these models are used for assessing conservation goals, it is critical to assess their limitations and usefulness.
I address the limitations of current SDM applications in my thesis, with the goal of improving their theoretical underpinning. I used the endangered northern bettong (Bettongia tropica), a tropical rat-kangaroo, as a study species for my research. The northern bettong is an ideal SDM candidate: it is a small, narrowly endemic species, restricted in habitat and diet. The ecology of the species is well understood, with knowledge on key process, interactions, and dietary requirements. I examined the links between climate, limiting resources, biotic interactions (competition with the more generalist rufous bettong (Aepyprymnus rufescens)) and extreme weather events to enhance the ecological theory of SDMs. Additionally, I developed suggestions for the proactive management of the northern bettong. In order to do this, this thesis had several components: 1) examination of the distribution and limits of northern bettong key resources for inclusion into SDMs; 2) assessment of the role of biotic interactions in SDMs; and 3) investigation of the impact of extreme weather events on current distributions.
Two crucial food resources for the northern bettong are 'truffles' and cockatoo grass (Alloteropsis semialata); I assessed site- and regional-scale effects of short-term weather, long-term climate and habitat on the distribution of these resources. Habitat type did have an influence on truffles, as did key soil nutrients, although these factors could only explain a small percentage of the variation in truffle availability. The availability of truffles was directly influenced by weather and climate, with temperature and precipitation driving productivity at both the site and regional scale. The long-term reliability of truffles as a resource may be linked to weather and could be detrimentally affected by increasing seasonality and dry season severity, particularly within the range edges of northern bettong distribution. Key 'extreme' weather events were identified to limit truffle abundance, which in turn would limit the distribution of the northern bettong; thus this resource provided a good modelling candidate for use in biotic interaction assessment. Cockatoo grass has a broad tolerance to temperature and precipitation values although appears to be limited by drought conditions in the dry season. Habitat features have a strong role in determining cockatoo grass density, with a positive response to a late dry season burn indicating this species may benefit from fire. Cockatoo grass distribution was also affected by climate, making it an appropriate variable for inclusion into biotic interaction models, although more research on the affect of fire and climate change on its distribution is warranted.
In order to assess the influence of biotic interactions on SDM predictions under climate change, the spatial distribution of the northern bettong was modelled with and without biotic interactions (two resources and the potential competitor) and their predictions compared under varying degrees of global warming. Climate-only models increasingly diverged from those including biotic interactions with increasing global warming. I showed that SDM exercises that explicitly include known biological interactions provide better, ecologically realistic predictions under climate change. As interactions are currently not included in the vast majority of SDMs, this has ramifications for the usefulness of current climate change impact assessments that employ SDM.
Long-term climate data masks short-term weather events; these weather events may be 'extreme' relative to a species and as such, have huge implications on local population densities. To explore this, I defined extreme weather events in terms of the ecology of the northern bettong. These extreme weather events (e.g. droughts and heat waves) were used to model the temporal variability in the short-term suitability of habitat for both the northern bettong and its potential competitor, the rufous bettong. Severe drought and temperature variability limited local population densities of the northern bettong at the edge of this species' range, and induced contractions in its distribution and niche tracking. Such contractions coincided with beneficial outcomes for the rufous bettong. Populations close to the edge of the range of this species occur in low densities as a result of frequent changes in the suitability of weather and increased pressure from their competitor. Traditional SDMs utilise data limited to spatial scale and do not detect dynamic processes such as temporal shifts in suitable weather and competitive outcomes between species. Failure to include extreme events can lead to overestimation of suitable habitat, which has implications for use in management decisions.
I integrated all of the results from my data chapters to improve our ecological understanding of the northern bettong. Northern bettongs may be vulnerable to climate change, particularly within populations at the edge of its range. Proactive conservation planning to mitigate the impacts of climate change can begin with the knowledge of predicted distributions, identified refugial areas (areas likely to maintain resources under climate change), and the impacts of extreme weather events, variable weather, and competitive pressure from the rufous bettong.
I demonstrate that although the use of SDM in climate change impact assessments is beneficial as a first pass for conservation and adaptation efforts, they can be improved with species-specific, ecologically relevant knowledge. The importance of my study was to highlight how climate-only models are limited in detecting important influences on a species distribution in time, as well as space. Improving on models by addressing these limitations provides for more realistic model outputs that can be utilized with greater confidence in proactive conservation efforts. The models developed here will be used in management decisions for the endangered northern bettong, to help ensure its continued persistence in a changing climate.
Books on the topic "Simple climate model"
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Danny, Harvey, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group I., eds. An introduction to simple climate models used in the IPCC second assessment report. [S.l.]: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1997.
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Croley, Thomas E. Modified Great Lakes hydrology modeling system for considering simple extreme climates. Ann Arbor, Mich: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, 2006.
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1961-, Entekhabi Dara, Eagleson Peter S, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Civil Engineering., and United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration., eds. Atmospheric water vapor transport: Estimation of continental precipitation recycling and parameterization of a simple climate model. Cambridge, Mass: Dept. of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, Massachussetts Institute of Technology, 1991.
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Chance, Kelly, and Randall V. Martin. Radiation and Climate. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199662104.003.0008.
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Global climate is controlled by an energy balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation. An energy balance is first developed using a simple one-layer model of the atmosphere and then made more realistic by distributing the atmospheric optical depth smoothly in a Gray Atmosphere Model. Wavelength-specific and altitude-dependent absorption and emission for the ultraviolet through long-wave infrared are described. Knowledge is combined into an overall Earth energy budget. The sensitivity of the climate to radiative forcing is examined.
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Lovejoy, Shaun. Weather, Macroweather, and the Climate. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190864217.001.0001.
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Weather, Macroweather, and the Climate is an insider's attempt to explain as simply as possible how to understand the atmospheric variability that occurs over an astonishing range of scales: from millimeters to the size of the planet, from milliseconds to billions of years. The variability is so large that standard ways of dealing with it are utterly inadequate: in 2015, it was found that classical approaches had underestimated the variability by the astronomical factor of a quadrillion (a million billion). Author Shaun Lovejoy asks - and answers - many fundamental questions such as: Is the atmosphere random or deterministic? What is turbulence? How big is a cloud (what is the appropriate notion of size itself)? What is its dimension? How can we conceptualize the structures within structures within structures spanning millimeters to thousands of kilometers and milliseconds to the age of the planet? What is weather? What is climate? Lovejoy shows in simple terms why the industrial epoch warming can't be natural - much simpler than trying to show that it's anthropogenic. We will discuss in simple terms how to make the best seasonal and annual forecasts - without giant numerical models. Above all, the book offers readers a new understanding of the atmosphere.
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Walker, James C. G. Numerical Adventures with Geochemical Cycles. Oxford University Press, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195045208.001.0001.
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The dynamic, evolving Earth, and the mathematical representation of its geochemical changes are the subject of this timely, helpful handbook. Global warming, changes in the ocean, and the effects of fossil fuel combustion are just a few of the phenomena that make the development of geochemical models critical. But what computational methods will help to accurately carry out this task? This new text teaches the methodology of computational simulation of environmental change. The author presents interesting applications of his methods to describe the response of the ocean and atmosphere to the infusion of pollutants, the effect of evaporation on seawater composition, climate change, and many other aspects of the Earth's evolving ecosystem. He also presents simple approaches for solving non-linear systems, calculating isotope ratios, and dealing with chains of identical reservoirs. With creative programs that can be executed on any personal computer, Walker offers earth scientists the techniques necessary to address the key problems in their field.
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Rayner, Cynthia, and François Bonnici. The Systems Work of Social Change. Oxford University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198857457.001.0001.
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The issues of poverty, inequality, racial justice, and climate change have never been more pressing or paralyzing. Current approaches to social change—which rely on industrial models of production and power—are not helping. In fact, they are designed to entrench the status quo. In The Systems Work of Social Change, Cynthia Rayner and François Bonnici draw on two hundred years of history and a treasure trove of stories of committed social change-makers to uncover principles and practices for social change that radically depart from industrial approaches. Rather than delivering “solutions,” these principles and practices focus on the process of change itself. Through rich storytelling and lucid analysis, Rayner and Bonnici show that connection, context, and power sit at the heart of the change process, ensuring broader agency for people and communities to create social systems that are responsive and representative in a rapidly changing world. Simple yet profound, this book distils a timely set of lessons for practitioners, leaders, scholars, and policymakers. "It will guide those who work in and think about systems change for a generation. A breakthrough book.” - Stephan Chambers, Director, Marshall Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science
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Peterson, Anna L. Works Righteousness. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197532232.001.0001.
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Works Righteousness is the first full-length study of the place of practice in ethical theory. It is a critique of the idealism of dominant approaches, an analysis of alternative models in which practice plays a more significant role, and an argument for taking practice seriously both in broad questions about ethical theory and in concrete case studies. The book’s main argument is that what people actually do should be central to ethical theory. Rather than assuming that pre-established moral ideas guide action, ethicists should acknowledge and explore the ways that practices generate values and the mutual shaping between ideas and actions. This argument challenges dominant philosophical and religious theories that assume that ideas are what really matter. Works Righteousness analyses the place of practice in these traditions, showing the links between their emphasis on internal states and simple, linear relationships between ideas, actions, and results. These themes are challenged by alternative models such as pragmatism, Marxism, and religious pacifism, which give practice a larger role and in the process highlight important themes such as the way social structures condition moral ideas and actions, the dangers of thinking about moral problems as polarized dilemmas, and the complex mutual shaping of ideas and actions. A practice-focused approach sheds new light on concrete case studies, underlining the value of attention to people’s concrete experiences and relationships in efforts to analyse and address contemporary problems such as hate speech, euthanasia, and climate change.
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Isendahl, Christian, and Daryl Stump, eds. The Oxford Handbook of Historical Ecology and Applied Archaeology. Oxford University Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199672691.001.0001.
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This volume presents theoretical discussions, methodological outlines, and case-studies describing the discursive overlap of the theoretical and methodological framework of historical ecology, and the emerging sub-discipline of applied archaeology. Historical ecology is based on the recognition that humans are not only capable of modifying their environments, but that all environments on earth have already been directly or indirectly modified. This includes anthropogenic climate change, widespread deforestations, and species extinctions, but also very local alterations, the effects of which may last a few years, or may have legacies lasting centuries or more. The volume presents a range of case-studies that highlight how modern environments and landscapes have been shaped by humans, and includes outlines of the methods we can use to better understand these changes. Authors include anthropologists, archaeologists, human geographers, and historians, all of whom are focussed not just on defining human impacts in the past, but on the ways that understanding these changes can help inform contemporary practices and development policies. Some present examples of how ancient or current societies have modified their environments in sustainable ways, while others highlight practices that had unintended long-term consequences. The possibility of learning from these practices are discussed, as is the potential of using the long history of human resource exploitation as a method for building or testing models of future change. Rather than merely acting as advocates for historical data, the chapters collected here also warn of the limitations of drawing simple lessons from the history of interactions between humans and their environments, and note that doing so is potentially just as damaging as ignoring these rich sources of data.
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Holden, Richard, and Rosalind Dixon. From Free to Fair Markets. Oxford University Press, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197625972.001.0001.
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Liberalism—and its promise of market-led prosperity—was in crisis well before Covid-19. Recent decades have seen a rise in concentrated unemployment, and a long-term stagnation in real wages, in many of the world’s leading economies. At the same time, the world has witnessed a dramatic rise of corporate power, and the wealth of the top 1%. Alongside this has been the failure of liberal societies to address some of the most pressing challenges of our time, including climate change. Covid-19 has only exacerbated the fragility of work, and the effects of corporate power and inequality. When Covid-19 is over, liberalism will therefore be badly in need of renovation. Indeed, to survive, liberalism will need a radical reboot—to find new ways of tackling the current challenges posed by corporate power, inequality, and climate change. This also means moving beyond recent “neoliberal” versions of liberalism toward a more truly democratic form of liberalism, or from the idea of free markets to a vision of fair markets. Fair market policies are not democratic socialist: they hold on to the idea of markets as promoting growth and freedom. But they insist that markets must be subject to wide-ranging democratic regulation. This book offers a new vision of a “fair markets” approach–and the concrete policies that could make this ideal a reality. It proposes: (1) a universal “green” jobs guarantee; (2) a significant increase in the minimum wage and government support for wages; (3) universal healthcare based on a two-track model of public and private provision, and (4) a similar public baseline for childcare and basic leave benefits for all workers; (5) a new critical infrastructure policy for nation states to sit alongside a commitment to global free trade; and (6) universal pollution taxes, with all proceeds returned directly to citizens by way of a green dividend. The common theme of all the policies is that they combine a commitment to markets with democratic commitments to equal dignity for all citizens, and the regulation of markets in line with majority interests and understandings—or the idea that markets should be both free and fair, and well-functioning, as opposed to simply “free.” Because of this, they are also policies that are “blue,” “pink,” and “green.” The book also explains how to pay for these ideas, and the kind of democratic politics needed to make them a reality.
Book chapters on the topic "Simple climate model"
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Imbrie, John. "A Simple Systems Model of the Major Glaciation Cycles." In Ice in the Climate System, 255–69. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-85016-5_16.
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Sellers, P. J., Y. Mintz, Y. C. Sud, and A. Dalcher. "A Brief Description of the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB)." In Physically-Based Modelling and Simulation of Climate and Climatic Change, 307–30. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3041-4_7.
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Sakai, K., and W. R. Peltier. "Oscillatory Modes of Behavior in a Simple Model of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation." In Ice in the Climate System, 459–79. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-85016-5_26.
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Gottinger, Hans W. "A Simple Endogenous Model of Economic Activity and Climate Change." In Global Environmental Economics, 187–223. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-5435-6_6.
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Wilby, Robert L. "Stress-Testing Adaptation Options." In Springer Climate, 41–49. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86211-4_6.
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AbstractThis technical contribution discusses ways of testing the performance of adaptation projects despite uncertainty about climate change. Robust decision making frameworks are recommended for evaluating project performance under a range of credible scenarios. Stress-testing options help to establish conditions under which there may be trade-offs between or even failure of project deliverables. Stress-tests may be undertaken for specified portfolios of management options, using models of the system being managed (including inputs and drivers of change), and then assessed against decision-relevant performance indicators with agreed options appraisal criteria. Field experiments and model simulations can be designed to test costs and benefits of adaptation measures. Simple rules may help to operationalize the findings of trials—such as ‘plant 1 km of trees along a headwater stream to cool summer water temperatures by 1 °C’. However, insights gained from field-based adaptation stress-testing are limited by the conditions experienced during the observation period. These may not be severe enough to represent extreme weather in the future. Model simulations overcome this constraint by applying credible climate changes within the virtual worlds of system models. Nonetheless, care must be taken to select meaningful change metrics and to represent plausible changes in boundary conditions for climate and non-climate pressures. All stress-testing should be accompanied by monitoring, evaluation and learning to benchmark benefits and confirm that expected outcomes are achieved.
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Veling, E. J. M., and M. E. Wit. "A Simple Two-Dimensional Climate Model with Ocean and Atmosphere Coupling." In Predictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural Sciences and Economics, 95–112. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-0962-8_9.
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Loizou, Pinelopi, Mark Guishard, Kevin Mayall, Pier Luigi Vidale, Kevin I. Hodges, and Silke Dierer. "Development of a Simple, Open-Source Hurricane Wind Risk Model for Bermuda with a Sensitivity Test on Decadal Variability." In Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate, 143–60. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08568-0_7.
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AbstractA hurricane-catastrophe model was developed for assessing risk associated with hurricane winds for Bermuda by combining observational knowledge with property value and exposure information. The sensitivity of hurricane wind risk to decadal variability of events was tested. The historical record of hurricanes passing within 185 km of Bermuda was created using IBTrACS. A representative exposure dataset of property values was developed by obtaining recent governmental Annual Rental Value data, while Miller et al. (Weather Forecast 28:159–174, 2013) provided a vulnerability relationship between increasing winds and damage. With a probabilistic approach, new events for 10,000 years were simulated for three different scenarios using (1) the complete record of annual TC counts; (2) two high-frequency periods and; (3) two low-frequency periods. Exceedance probability curves were constructed from event loss tables, focusing on aggregating annual losses from damaging events. Expected losses of low-frequency scenarios were less than losses of high-frequency scenarios or when the whole historical record was used. This framework suffers from uncertainties due to different assumptions and biases within IBTrACS. Small data sizes limit our ability to conduct a formal model validation and results should be interpreted in this context. In the future, sensitivity tests on the different components of the model will be performed.
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Kawaye, Floney P., and Michael F. Hutchinson. "Maize, Cassava, and Sweet Potato Yield on Monthly Climate in Malawi." In African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation, 617–37. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_120.
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AbstractClimate change and climate variability in Malawi have negatively affected the production of maize, a staple food crop. This has adversely affected food security. On the other hand, there have been increases in growing area, production, yield, consumption, and commercialization of both cassava and sweet potato. Factors behind these increases include the adaptive capacity of these crops in relation to climate change and variability, structural adjustment programs, population growth and urbanization, new farming technologies, and economic development. Cassava and sweet potato are seen to have the potential to contribute to food security and alleviate poverty among rural communities.This study used a simple generic growth index model called GROWEST to model observed yields of maize, cassava, and sweet potato across Malawi between 2001 and 2012. The method can be viewed as a hybrid approach between complex process-based crop models and typical statistical models. For each food crop, the GROWEST model was able to provide a robust correlation between observed yields and spatially interpolated monthly climate. The model parameters, which included optimum growing temperatures and growing seasons, were well determined and agreed with known values. This indicated that these models could be used with reasonable confidence to project the impacts of climate change on crop yield. These projections could help assess the future of food security in Malawi under the changing climate and assist in planning for this future.
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Fraedrich, Klaus. "Simple climate models." In Stochastic Climate Models, 65–100. Basel: Birkhäuser Basel, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-8287-3_2.
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Visconti, Guido. "Simple Climate Models." In Fundamentals of Physics and Chemistry of the Atmosphere, 335–58. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-04540-4_14.
Full textConference papers on the topic "Simple climate model"
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Patidar, Sandhya, David Jenkins, Phil Banfill, and Gavin Gibson. "Simple Statistical Model for Complex Probabilistic Climate Projections: Overheating Risk and Extreme Events." In World Renewable Energy Congress – Sweden, 8–13 May, 2011, Linköping, Sweden. Linköping University Electronic Press, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.3384/ecp11057596.
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Bower, D., M. Bielski, E. Mangan, D. Schell, K. Ghahremani, and D. Gee. "Achieving Climate Control With Renewable Energy." In ASME 2019 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2019-10751.
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Abstract The purpose of this project was to explore the feasibility of powering a climate control system solely from a renewable energy source. The off-the-shelf cooling system components were taken from a ca. 1986 R-12 residential refrigerator and then reassembled onto a custom enclosure which was constructed to serve as the climate-controlled compartment. The enclosure design was purposefully simple: a rectangular shaped box constructed out of plywood and mounted on wheels together with a plexiglass door which was substituted for the front face. The overall design provided for enhanced mobility while also allowing for easy observation of the interior temperature via an interior-mounted, digital, commercial residential thermostat integrated into the control system. The system, nominally, is triggered by incident solar radiation; the initial set-point temperature was 21 °C. Compressor power was derived solely from renewable energy. Specifically, a pair of 100W 12V monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic solar panels was used to generate electricity which was subsequently stored in a deep-cycle battery. Under steady-state AC operation, the compressor draws approximately 2.1A. Due to system inefficiencies, the corresponding DC current draw is necessarily higher and approaches 22.3A. For a compressor duty cycle ranging from 50–100%, the current draw over a model 9 hr day would range from between 100.1–200.3 A-H. The lower limit is within the energy storage capacity for the fully-charged system, as currently designed.
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WIGLEY, T. M. L. "SIMPLE CLIMATE MODELS." In The 32nd Session of International Seminars and International Collaboration. WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789812701787_0010.
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Malinin, Valeriy, Valeriy Malinin, Svetlana Gordeeva, Svetlana Gordeeva, Oleg Shevchuk, Oleg Shevchuk, Yuliya Mitina, Yuliya Mitina, Александра Ершова, and Alexandra Ershova. "VARIATIONS OF SEA LEVEL AND GLOBAL CLIMATE IN MODERN CONDITIONS." In Managing risks to coastal regions and communities in a changing world. Academus Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.31519/conferencearticle_5b1b9476800645.51196268.
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Global warming can result in the rise of Sea Level (SL) by 40–100 cm by the end of the XXI century with possible catastrophic consequences for coastal zone. Study and prediction of long-term fluctuations of sea level is among the most important problems of modern hydrometeorology. A series of studies of SL interannual fluctuations have been carried out in RSHU. A reconstruction of SL fluctuations during the observation period of 1861-2010, i.e. 150 years, was performed on the basis of the developed statistical model showing a powerful linear trend describing 94% of the initial row dispersion. During the XX century the trend approached 1.8 mm/year. The comparison of actual and calculated SL trends for two periods (1980–2005 and 1993-2003) has shown that the residual error makes respectively 0.21 and 0.22 mm/year that is three times less, than in the Fourth IPCC report. Also, for the first time the complex of methods of SL longterm forecast was developed: the main advantage of a simple statistical model of SL longterm forecast is a minimum of initial information, but the model accuracy is comparable with complex and expensive ocean and atmosphere circulation models. The two-decade range physical-statistical sea level prediction model was developed for the first time based on the idea that Global Air Temperature (GAT) is a major factor of SL changes. It was experimentally shown that there is a long delay (20 and 30 years) of SL fluctuations with respect to Global Air Temperature.
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Malinin, Valeriy, Valeriy Malinin, Svetlana Gordeeva, Svetlana Gordeeva, Oleg Shevchuk, Oleg Shevchuk, Yuliya Mitina, Yuliya Mitina, Александра Ершова, and Alexandra Ershova. "VARIATIONS OF SEA LEVEL AND GLOBAL CLIMATE IN MODERN CONDITIONS." In Managing risks to coastal regions and communities in a changing world. Academus Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.21610/conferencearticle_58b4316be3ef5.
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Global warming can result in the rise of Sea Level (SL) by 40–100 cm by the end of the XXI century with possible catastrophic consequences for coastal zone. Study and prediction of long-term fluctuations of sea level is among the most important problems of modern hydrometeorology. A series of studies of SL interannual fluctuations have been carried out in RSHU. A reconstruction of SL fluctuations during the observation period of 1861-2010, i.e. 150 years, was performed on the basis of the developed statistical model showing a powerful linear trend describing 94% of the initial row dispersion. During the XX century the trend approached 1.8 mm/year. The comparison of actual and calculated SL trends for two periods (1980–2005 and 1993-2003) has shown that the residual error makes respectively 0.21 and 0.22 mm/year that is three times less, than in the Fourth IPCC report. Also, for the first time the complex of methods of SL longterm forecast was developed: the main advantage of a simple statistical model of SL longterm forecast is a minimum of initial information, but the model accuracy is comparable with complex and expensive ocean and atmosphere circulation models. The two-decade range physical-statistical sea level prediction model was developed for the first time based on the idea that Global Air Temperature (GAT) is a major factor of SL changes. It was experimentally shown that there is a long delay (20 and 30 years) of SL fluctuations with respect to Global Air Temperature.
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Kenjeresˇ, S., K. Hanjalic´, and S. B. Gunarjo. "A T-RANS/VLES Approach to Indoor Climate Simulations." In ASME 2002 Joint U.S.-European Fluids Engineering Division Conference. ASMEDC, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/fedsm2002-31400.
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For accurate prediction of flow, scalar transport and wall heat and mass transfer in complex building space we propose a time-dependent RANS (T-RANS) approach which resolves in time and space the large-scale convective motion and associated deterministic eddy structure. The residual (“subscale”) turbulence is modeled by a single-point closure. The method can be regarded as Very Large Eddy Simulations (VLES) since the deterministic and modeled contribution to the turbulence moments are of the same order of magnitude. The modeled part becomes dominant in the near-wall regions where there are no large eddies and the proper choice of the subscale model is especially important for predicting wall friction and heat transfer. We use an ensemble-averaged 〈k〉 - 〈ε〉 - 〈θ2〉 algebraic stress/flux/concentration closure as the subscale model which can provide information about the stress and heat/species flux anisotropies. The method is especially advantageous for predicting flows driven or affected by thermal buoyancy, for which the conventional eddy-viscosity/diffusivity RANS models and gradient transport hypotheses are known to fail even in simple generic configurations. The approach was validated in a series of buoyancy-driven flows for which experimental, DNS and LES data are available. Examples of full-scale application include computational simulations of real occupied and furnished residential or office space in which the furniture elements and persons are treated as passive blocking elements. The simulation showed that the T-RANS approach can be used as a reliable tool for a variety of applications such as optimization of heating and ventilation system, building space insulation, indoor quality, safety measures related to smoke and fire spreading, as well as for accurate wall heat and mass transfer predictions.
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Brown, Alison, Ag Stephens, Ben Rabb, Richenda Connell, and Jon Upton. "Including the Impact of Climate Change in Offshore and Onshore Metocean Design Criteria to Ensure Asset Robustness." In ASME 2019 38th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2019-95205.
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Abstract While a significant amount of attention surrounding climate change has focused on mitigation of the causes, there is growing interest and need to adapt to physical climate change impacts which are already being experienced and in anticipation of future changes. Changes in climate have the potential to create hazards in the oil and gas sector although vulnerabilities to these changes are often specific to asset types. Preparedness for climate change can help to reduce damaging effects from acute as well as chronic climate changes. This paper focuses on a simple approach developed to ensure that climate change is included in engineering design, by considering climate change risk and the uncertainty inherent in future projections of climate change into design requirements. It involves using the best available climate change data and an understanding of the relationships between asset performance and environmental (climate-related) conditions. The risk level associated with climate change for a specific asset is determined by consideration of the severity and confidence level of the climate change hazard, the exposure of the asset to the hazard, the vulnerability of the exposed asset to the hazard and the capacity of the asset to adapt to the hazard. The method considers the risk levels, the selection of climate model data, the ‘natural variability’ baseline period to be applied to the climate change data, the climate change model validation, the asset life time and specifically how to modify metocean design criteria to account for climate change to ensure both the ‘start of life’ criteria (typically derived from observed and hindcast data) and ‘end of life’ criteria (including an estimate for the impact of climate change at the end of the asset life) meet the required annual probability of exceedance.
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de Valk, Cees, Peter Groenewoud, Sander Hulst, and Gert Klopman. "Building a Global Resource for Rapid Assessment of the Wave Climate." In ASME 2004 23rd International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. ASMEDC, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2004-51308.
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In order to provide rapid access to reliable wave and wind climate information worldwide, a resource has been created combining: • a global offshore wind- and wave data-base, currently containing calibrated and validated spectral wave data from a wave hindcast model as well data from several satellite microwave sensors; • a simple but effective numerical model to predict nearshore wave conditions from the offshore spectra; • analysis tools to extract various climate parameters from the data such as scatter tables, extreme value analysis and persistency; • a web interface giving instantaneous access to the most commonly needed information. The resource is primarily intended for use in planning and design of operations typically requiring five years of data, but it an also be used for the design of certain structures, as there are now 16 years of significant wave height data from satellite radar altimeter available. This paper describes the components of the system and discusses their merits and limitations. We also present some results of the validation of the global satellite wave and wind data, of the global and regional wave model hindcasts, and of the nearshore wave transformation employed to obtain wave climate at sheltered or shallow-water sites.
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Dai, Guohua, Yufei Wan, Chunyu Liu, Jun Sang, Wenguang Wang, Xin Qian, Ming Hao, and Renwei Liu. "A Simple and Effective Method to Predict the Generation of Black Carbon in Oilfields." In ASME 2020 39th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2020-18432.
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Abstract As an important safety discharge facility in petrochemical industry, flare is widely used in offshore and onshore oil and gas fields to relieve pressure, vent unwanted gases. This open-air combustion system oxidizes the fuel gases into carbon dioxide and water vapor and hence avoids the contamination of air with harmful gases that cause air pollution and climate change. With the increasingly strict requirements of environmental protection and the implementation of low-carbon development policy, the black carbon (soot) caused by incomplete combustion from the flare will be strictly controlled. At present, there is no simple and effective method to determine whether the flare produces visible black carbon which exacerbates the pollution. According to the investigation on site, there are different degrees of black carbon emission from the flares both in the onshore and offshore oilfield, which brings some troubles to the petroleum corporation. Based on a flare tip and the associated gas from an oilfield in Bohai Bay of China, a simulation model, which in accordance with the actual situation, was established with the Computational Fluid Dynamics software. The Non-Premixed Combustion model was used to simulate the Combustion, the P-1 model was adopted to calculate the thermal radiation and the Moss-Brookes model was selected to compute the generation of black carbon. The feasibility of the model was demonstrated by comparing the simulation results with the field test results. Then the limitation of current conventional practice to predict whether the soot is produced, was demonstrated with the model. At the same time, the production rate of black carbon under different conditions of components and fraction were calculated. After a comprehensive analysis and comparison, a simple, directly and effective method to predict the soot was proposed. When the C-to-H ratio of fuel gas is greater than 0.273, it tends to visible soot, and when the C-to-H ratio is greater than 0.285, it tends to heavy soot, which is in line with the actual in site. Therefore, the method can be applied to predict the level of the generation of black carbon in the engineering.
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Anand, Nadish, and Richard D. Gould. "A Convenient Low Order Thermal Model for Heat Transfer Characteristics of Single Floored Low-Rise Residential Buildings." In ASME 2016 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2016-65254.
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A low order thermal model is introduced to determine the thermal characteristics of a Low-Rise Residential (LRR) building and then predict the energy usage by its Heating Ventilation & Air Conditioning (HVAC) system according to future weather conditions. The LRR buildings are treated as a simple lump and the model is derived using the lumped capacitance model for transient heat transfer from bodies. Most contemporary HVAC systems have a thermostat control, which has an offset temperature, and user defined set point temperatures, which defines when the HVAC system will switch on and off. The aim is to predict, with minimal error, the inside air temperature, which is used to determine the switching on and off, of the HVAC system. To validate this lumped capacitance model we have used the EnergyPlus simulation engine, which simulates the thermal behavior of buildings with considerable accuracy. We have predicted using the low order model the inside air temperature of a single family house located in three different climate zones (Detroit, Raleigh & Austin) and different orientations for summer and winter seasons. The prediction error between the model and EnergyPlus is less than 10% for almost all the cases with the exception of Austin in summer. Possible factors responsible for error in prediction are also noted in this work, paving way for future research.
Reports on the topic "Simple climate model"
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Alexander, Serena E., Mariela Alfonzo, and Kevin Lee. Safeguarding Equity in Off-Site Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Mitigation in California. Mineta Transportation Institute, November 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.31979/mti.2021.2027.
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Historically, the State of California assessed the environmental impacts of proposed developments based on how it was projected to affect an area’s level of service (LOS). However, as LOS focused on traffic delays, many agencies simply widened roads, which was an ineffective way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). With the passage of Senate Bill (SB)743 in 2013, LOS was replaced by Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) as a more appropriate metric by which to gauge the environmental impacts of proposed development. Additionally, SB 743 presented an opportunity for off-site VMT mitigation strategies through banking and exchanges– allowing multiple development projects to fund a variety of strategies to reduce VMT elsewhere in the city or region. While the shift from LOS to VMT has generally been lauded, concerns remain about how to apply SB 743 effectively and equitably. This study aimed to: 1) understand how local governments are addressing this shift toward VMT while ensuring equity, including its approaches to off-site VMT mitigation; and 2) evaluate the various built environment factors that impact VMT, which should be considered by local governments, using both qualitative and quantitative research designs. The study posited that both micro and macro level aspects of the built environment needed to be considered when evaluating the impacts of proposed development on VMT, not only to ensure higher accuracy VMT models, but also because of the potential equity implications of off-site mitigation measures. Using multiple linear regression, the study shows that macroscale built environment features such as land use, density, housing, and employment access have a statistically significant impact on reducing VMT (35%), along with transit access (15%), microscale features such as sidewalks, benches, and trees (13%), and income (6%). More notably, a four-way interaction was detected, indicating that VMT is dependent on the combination of macro and micro level built environment features, public transit access, and income. Additionally, qualitative interviews indicate that transportation practitioners deal with three types of challenges in the transition to VMT impact mitigation: the lack of reliable, standardized VMT measure and evaluation tools; the lack of a strong legal foundation for VMT as a component of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA); and the challenge of distributing off-site VMT mitigation equitably. Overall, findings support a nuanced, multi-factor understanding of the context in which new developments are being proposed, both in terms of modeling VMT, but also when considering whether offsite mitigation would be appropriate. The results of this study can help California ensure equitable VMT mitigation that better aligns with the state’s climate goals.