Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Short terms'
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Cheng, Alexandra. "TERMS: A Short Film." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2018. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1807.
Full textSeybold, Calina Catherine. "Third body short period terms in analytic orbit prediction /." Digital version accessible at:, 2000. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/utexas/main.
Full textFoo, Maw-Der 1965. "Team design and performance : a study of short-term enterpreneurial teams." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/50526.
Full textIncludes bibliographical references (leaves 191-202).
In this dissertation, I study the factors that influence the performance of short-term teams engaged in an entrepreneurial activity. This is an important area to study because team-started businesses account for a disproportionately greater number of high-growth firms (Kamm, Shuman and Seeger, 1990). Unfortunately, there has been limited research on team started businesses. The entrepreneurial teams that I study are participants in the MIT $50K Business Plan Competition. This sample is chosen because business plan competitions are increasingly becoming the meeting place for new ideas, people interested in starting business ventures and others who are interested in participating in these ventures (e.g., patent attorneys, investors and venture capitalists). In addition, the sample overcomes some problems typical of many entrepreneurship studies including left censoring biases, population identification and low response rates. Chapter 1 is an overview of the thesis while chapter 2 describes the entrepreneurial activities at MIT. Chapter 3 describes the MIT $50K Business Plan Competition and elaborates the steps taken to collect information from competition participants. Since entrepreneurial team performance is influenced by factors both internal and external to the team, this thesis takes a comprehensive approach, presenting three papers that explore the effects of team composition, team design and external contacts on entrepreneurial team performance. Both external and team-member evaluations of entrepreneurial team performance are used. Both evaluations are important because positive external evaluations can increase the venture's chances of getting resources (e.g., Roberts, 1991a) while positive internal evaluations can increase the chance that members will be satisfied with their teams and continue in team involvement (e.g., Hackman, 1987). The first paper, described in chapter 4, explores the influence of team design, both team structure and member interaction, on short-term entrepreneurial team performance. The findings show that there are different drivers of performance. While task design predicts external evaluations of performance, the way in which members interact predicts member-rated performance. The second paper, described in chapter 5, explores the influence of team-member functional diversity on short-term entrepreneurial team performance, with team design as the mediating variable. This study shows the need to investigate the indirect effects of functional diversity on performance and to distinguish between external and team-member evaluations. The results show that functional diversity has negative indirect effect on member-rated performance but no effect on external-rated performance. The third paper, described in chapter 6, explores the influence of member contacts with people outside the team on short-term entrepreneurial team performance. The study shows that high-performing teams gather a range of information and are efficient in information gathering. The study shows that social capital concepts, such as strong and weak ties, can be integrated with the team literature. The concluding chapter proposes a model that combines the influence of internal and external factors on entrepreneurial team performance. The chapter also summarizes the findings and compares them to the new venture and team literatures. Finally, areas for future research are proposed.
by Maw-Der Foo.
Ph.D.
Bair, Daniel R. "The integration of North American short-term mission teams into long-term ministry efforts in Central America and Mexico." Columbia, SC : Columbia Theological Seminary, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.2986/tren.023-0219.
Full textTypescript. "December, 2007." Also available in CD-ROM. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 166-173).
Olieman, J. F. "Infantile Short Bowel Syndrome: short and long term evaluation." [S.l.] : Rotterdam : [The Author] ; Erasmus University [Host], 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1765/14961.
Full textGomes, Tânia Tenório. "Rede ARTMAP Euclidiana utilizada na solução do problema de previsão de cargas elétricas." Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/11449/152580.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
A geração e distribuição de energia elétrica fazem parte de um vasto esquema no setor elétrico de cada país, tornando-se cada vez mais necessário criar alternativas para minimizar seu custo. Realizar a previsão de cargas elétricas de forma precisa garante uma infraestrutura mais eficiente e confiável para planejamento e operação do sistema elétrico. A proposta deste trabalho é realizar a previsão de carga elétrica global a curto prazo, utilizando uma técnica que forneça uma boa precisão, seja confiável e de baixo custo computacional. Portanto, foi utilizada a rede neural artificial ARTMAP Euclidiana, que é baseada na Teoria da Ressonância Adaptativa. Com objetivo de analisar a eficiência da metodologia proposta foram realizados 3 casos com diferentes horizontes de treinamento, sendo calculado o erro percentual médio. Os dados utilizados para as simulações são de uma companhia elétrica espanhola. O principal objetivo deste trabalho é aplicar a rede neural ARTMAP Euclidiana na previsão de cargas elétricas 24 horas à frente e para validar e verificar se esta rede é uma boa ferramenta para este tipo de estudo foi utilizada a rede neural ARTMAP Fuzzy com os mesmos dados empregados na rede ARTMAP Euclidiana como critério de comparação para comprovar a eficiência da rede neural ARTMAP Euclidiana.
Generation and distribution of electrical energy are very important for the development of the countries and it is necessary to create alternatives to minimize the costs. Electrical load forecasting must be realized precisely to assure a reliable and secure operation of the electrical system. The proposal of this work is to realize the short term global electrical load forecasting using a technique with good precision and reliable and with low computational cost. Thus, the Euclidian ARTMAP neural network was used which is also based on the adaptive resonance theory. Three different cases with different horizons were used for training and the percentual error is calculated. The data are from a Spanish company. The main objective is to apply the Euclidian ARTMAP neural network to forecast the loads 24 hours ahead. The results are compared with the traditional Fuzzy ARTMAP neural network using the same data and the comparison is effectuated evaluating the MAPE (mean absolute percentual error).
Ericson, Torgeir. "Short-term electricity demand response." Doctoral thesis, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Department of Electrical Power Engineering, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-1484.
Full textFutter, Mark R. "Predicting short term flood risks." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 1990. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.315639.
Full textESTEVES, GHEISA ROBERTA TELLES. "SHORT TERM LOAD FORECASTING MODELS." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2003. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=3715@1.
Full textAplicação de duas metodologias, para prever e modelar o comportamento de uma serie temporal de carga de energia elétrica, a serie histórica de carga elétrica horária de uma das concessionárias de energia elétrica do sudeste brasileiro, a ESCELSA. Foram aplicadas as metodologias de amortecimento direto, e uma metodologia recente, o método de Holt-Winters com múltiplos ciclos. Ambas as metodologias são utilizadas para fazer previsão horária de carga de energia elétrica, portanto, é feita, previsão 24 passos a frente.
Application of two diferent metodologies, in order to model and forecast the behavior of time series of hourly electrical loads generated by ESCELSA. Was applied to the time series studied the metodology of the direct smoothing, and also a recent metodology, the Holt-Winters with multiple sazonalities. In both of them it has been done the hourly forecast (24 hours load forecasting).
Bai, Xiwen. "Forecasting short term trucking rates." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/117796.
Full textThis electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Cataloged student-submitted from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 79-83).
Transportation costs constitute an important part of total logistics costs and have a dramatic impact on all kinds of decisions across the supply chain. Accurate estimation of transportation costs can help shippers make better decisions when planning transportation budgets and can help carriers estimate future cash flows. This study develops a forecasting model that predicts both contract and spot rates for truckload transportation on individual lanes for the next seven days. This study considers several input variables, including lagged values of spot and contract rates, rates on adjacent routes and volumes. The architectural approach to short-term forecasting is a neural network based on Nonlinear Autoregressive Models with eXogenous input (NARX) models. NARX models are powerful when modelling complex, nonlinear and dynamic systems, especially time series. Traditional time series models, including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), are also used and results from different models are compared. Results show that the NAR model provides better short-term forecasting performance for spot rates than the ARIMA model, while the ARIMA model performs slightly better for contract rates. However, for a longer-term forecast, the NARX model provides better results for contract rates. The results from this study can be applied to industrial players for their own transportation rate forecasting. These results provide guidelines for both shippers and carriers regarding what model to use, when to update the model with new information, and what forecasting error can be normally expected from the model.
by Xiwen Bai.
M. Eng. in Supply Chain Management
Li, Li. "Short-term and long-term evolution of lentiviruses." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2011. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.575475.
Full textGohil, Risha. "Short term physiological changes secondary to exercise in intermittent claudication : short term physiological changes in claudication." Thesis, University of Hull, 2013. http://hydra.hull.ac.uk/resources/hull:10090.
Full textJassim, Aimon. "Short-term train crew rescheduling problem /." Leeds : University of Leeds, School of Computer Studies, 2008. http://www.comp.leeds.ac.uk/fyproj/reports/0708/Jassim.pdf.
Full textBalmer, L. "Short term spectral estimation with applications." Thesis, University of Warwick, 1986. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.373072.
Full textHenson, Richard Nevill Astley. "Short-term memory for serial order." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1996. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.396139.
Full textSOARES, LACIR JORGE. "ESSAYS ON SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2003. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=4438@1.
Full textLoad forecasting has been considered a powerful tool in managing and planning power systems. Several tecniques have been recently suggested for short-term load forecasting by a large number of researchers. This work studies the applicability of linear models in the area is intended to be a basis for a real forecasting application. The models were developed and tested on the real load data of a utility company located in the southeast of Brazil. All models are proposed for sectional data, that is, each hour's load is studied separately as a single series. This approach avoids modeling the intricate intra-day pattern (load profile) displayed by the load, wich varies throughout days of the week and seasons. Three models are studied, the first one a Dummy-Adjusted Seasonal Integrated Autoregressive Moving Average model - DASARIMA, acting as a benchmark, the second a two-step modeling that makes use of deterministic components to model trend, seasonality and calendar effects, called Two-Level Seasonal Autoregressive model - TLSAR; and the last one a Dummy-Adjusted Generalized Long Memory model - DAGLM. The test results showed that the hourly models are well suitable for forecasting application. The forecasting errors of the last two approaches were smaller than those of the DASARIMA benchmark. The work suggests that this kind of hourly models should be implemented in a through on-line testing in order to provide a final opinion on its applicability.
Kalm, Kristjan. "Chunk formation in verbal short term memory." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2012. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.609987.
Full textDupré, Aurore. "Sizing of a short term wind forecasting system." Thesis, Institut polytechnique de Paris, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020IPPAX002.
Full textIn a context of global warming and energy transition, the development of renewable energies is essential in order to ensure energy production that meets a constantly growing demand. French wind power producers benefit from a “obligation to purchase” from EDF for 15 years. After that, they have to sell their production in the competitive market. To do so, they must announce in advance the amount of energy they will inject into the grid. In case of imbalance, they are charged penalties. In France, the deadline for selling energy is 30 minutes. Thus, in this thesis, several downscaling approaches, parametric (linear regression) and non-parametric (random forests) are developed, calibrated and evaluated. The considered lead times range from 30 min to 3 h.The downscaling methods considered are rarely used for lead times lower than 1 h since numerical models are generally run every 6 to 12 hours. The use of in-situ measurements in downscaling methods to correct the numerical prediction at initialization, allows a significant performance gain. Compared to traditional statistical methods for short term forecasting, the improvement compared to the persistence method ranges from 1.5%, 10 min ahead, to more than 30%, 3 h ahead. In order to limit the accumulation of errors in the conversion from wind speed forecast to wind power forecast, an analysis of the error induced by different meteorological variables, such as wind direction or air density, is presented. First, the forecast at the farm scale is explored and then the spatial dimension is introduced. Finally, the economic value of such a short term forecasting model is explored. The different steps of the electricity market are studied and the different sources of uncertainty and variability, such as forecast errors and price volatility, are identified and assessed. For the two wind farms considered in this study, the results show that the short term forecasts allow an increase in annual income between 4 and 5%
Estalrich-Lopez, Juan. "Short-term operation of surface reservoirs within long-term goals." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/184854.
Full textWang, Yang. "Modeling of Ultracapacitor Short-term and Long-term Dynamic Behavior." University of Akron / OhioLINK, 2008. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=akron1217029983.
Full textYoung, David K. "Promoting short-term missions as a means of making long-term disciples at the Westfield Evangelical Free Church." Theological Research Exchange Network (TREN), 2008. http://www.tren.com/search.cfm?p006-1591.
Full textÖhman, Jesper, and Knut Benson. "How Short-term Leasing Can Mitigate Vacancies in Retail Stores : Implementing Short-term Leasing in the Retail Industry." Thesis, KTH, Fastigheter och byggande, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-297782.
Full textDetaljhandeln genomgår en förändring. För varje år som går ökar e-handelns andelav detaljhandelns försäljning och antalet butiksvakanser blir allt större. Detta påverkar hurfastighetsbolag jobbar med sina butiksytor för att minimera det ökade antalet vakanser. Etttillvägagångssätt är att arbeta med korttidsuthyrningar, så kallade pop-up butiker. Pop-upbutiker har funnits väldigt länge och i olika former, så som säsongsbutiker och lanthandel. Denmoderna typen av pop-up butiker som kommer tas upp och diskuteras i denna uppsats är dockden som inte alltid är till för att maximera försäljning utan också för att använda imarknadsföringssyfte. Denna studie syftar till att undersöka hur moderna pop-up butiker kanhjälpa till att fylla det vakuum som lämnats av ett ökat antal vakanta butikslokaler.Uppsatsen skrevs genom en litteraturstudie av existerande litteratur om pop-up butiker samtsemistrukturerade intervjuer med fastighetsbolag och konsulter inom fastighetsbranschen. Härlades stor vikt vid de flaskhalsar och problem som uppstår i samband med implementering avkorttidsuthyrning samt hur marknadsplattformar kan hjälpa fastighetsägare att lösa dessa.Studien visade att fastighetsägare har börjat använda sig av korttidsuthyrningar i en störreutsträckning än tidigare. Fastighetsägarna var positiva till att använda sig av korttidsuthyrningarsom ett verktyg för att minska vakanser. Det visade sig också att det finns problem medimplementering av korttidsuthyrningar från ett fastighetsägarperspektiv. De största problemensom studien visade på var transparens av tomma lokaler, hur korttidsuthyrningar kan påverkafastighetsvärden negativt samt tidsåtgången för att skriva ett korttidskontrakt. Vissa problemkan lösas av marknadsplattformar för korttidsuthyrning medans andra behöver lösas avfastighetsbranschen i sin helhet.
Alexander, Justin. "Short-Termism and Corporate Myopia: The Values Assigned by the Market to Short-Term and Long-Term Firms." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2017. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1499.
Full textDegerli, Ahmet. "Short-term Industrial Production Forecasting For Turkey." Master's thesis, METU, 2012. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12614689/index.pdf.
Full textforecasting performances, the relative root mean square forecast error (RRMSFE) is calculated. Overall, results indicate that combining the VAR models with four endogenous variables yields the most substantial improvement in forecasting performance, relative to benchmark autoregressive (AR) model.
Bédard, Joël. "Improvement of short-term numerical wind predictions." Mémoire, École de technologie supérieure, 2010. http://espace.etsmtl.ca/296/1/B%C3%A9dard_Jo%C3%ABl.pdf.
Full textYu, Chunhui. "Managing risk with short term futures contracts." Thesis, [Tuscaloosa, Ala. : University of Alabama Libraries], 2009. http://purl.lib.ua.edu/2138.
Full textHuisken, Giovanni. "Inter-urban short-term traffic congestion prediction." Enschede : University of Twente [Host], 2006. http://doc.utwente.nl/57639.
Full textJones, Erle Baxter 1953. "Short-term variation during asbestos abatement activities." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 1987. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/276531.
Full textHall, Debbora. "Memory for rhythm and short-term memory." Thesis, University of York, 2008. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.495877.
Full textHu, Jun. "Short-term congestion prediction for vehicle navigation." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2011. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.535007.
Full textDahmen, Johannes C. "Short-Term Plasticity in the Auditory System." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2010. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.525284.
Full textRindzevičius, Vytautas. "Short-term effects of controlled conservation burning." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för biologisk grundutbildning, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-234965.
Full textAllcroft, David John. "Statistical models for short-term animal behaviour." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/11132.
Full textElkins, Ronald D. "Short-term planning and forecasting for petroleum." Thesis, Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/23389.
Full textGilburt, Simon John Arthur. "Psychopharmacological aspects of short-term information processing." Thesis, University of Leeds, 1990. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.277353.
Full textBrennan, Richard John. "Novel short-term tests for environmental carcinogens." Thesis, University of Warwick, 1992. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.357499.
Full textThorn, Annabel S. C. "Language specialisation in verbal short-term memory." Thesis, University of Bristol, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.266906.
Full textMikan, Kathrin Angela Maria. "Verbal short-term memory and vocabulary learning." Thesis, University of Sussex, 2013. http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/44799/.
Full textSantos, Gustavo Sato dos. "Towards short-term forecasting of ventricular tachyarrhythmias." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/41620.
Full textIncludes bibliographical references (p. 48-49).
This thesis reports the discovery of spectral patterns in ECG signals that exhibit a temporal behavior correlated with an approaching Ventricular Tachyarrhythmic (VTA) event. A computer experiment is performed where a supervised learning algorithm models the ECG signals with the targeted behavior, applies the models on other signals, and analyzes consistencies in the results. The procedure was successful in discovering patterns that happen before the onset of a VTA in 23 of the 79 ECG signal segments examined. A database with signals from healthy patients was used as a control, and there were no false positives on this database. The patterns discovered by this modeling process, although promising, still require thorough external validation. An important contribution of this work is the experimental procedure itself, which can be easily reproduced and expanded to search for more complicated patterns.
by Gustavo Sato dos Santos.
M.Eng.
Leon, Ojeda Luis. "Short-term multi-step ahead traffic forecasting." Thesis, Grenoble, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014GRENT081/document.
Full textThis dissertation falls within the domain of the Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). In particular, it is concerned with the design of a methodology for the real-time multi-step ahead travel time forecasting using flow and speed measurements from a instrumented freeway. To achieve this objective this thesis develops two main methodologies. The first one, a model-free, uses only speed measurements collected from the freeway, where a mean speed is assumed between two consecutive collection points. The travel time is forecasted using a noise Adaptive Kalman Filter (AKF) approach. The process noise statistics are computed using an online unbiased estimator, while the observations and their noise statistics are computed using the clustered historical traffic data. Forecasting problems are reformulated as filtering ones through the use of pseudo-observations built from historical data. The second one, a model-based, uses mainly traffic flow measurements. Its main appealing is the use of a mathematical model in order to reconstruct the internal state (density) in small road portions, and consequently exploits the relation between density and speed to forecast the travel time. The methodology uses only boundary conditions as inputs to a switched Luenberger state observer, based on the ``Cell Transmission Model'' (CTM), to estimate the road initial states. The boundary conditions are then forecasted using the AKF developed above. Consequently, the CTM model is run using the initial conditions and the forecasted boundaries in order to obtain the future evolution of densities, speeds, and finally travel time. The added innovation in this approach is the space discretization achieved: indeed, portions of the road, called ``cells'', can be chosen as small as desired and thus allow obtaining a finer tracking of speed variations. In order to validate experimentally the developed methodologies, this thesis uses as study case the Grenoble South Ring. This freeway, enclosing the southern part of the city from A41 to A480, consists of two carriageways with two lanes. For this study only the direction east-west was considered. With a length of about 10.5 km, this direction has 10 on-ramps, 7 off-ramps, and is monitored through the Grenoble Traffic Lab (GTL) that is able to provide reliable traffic data every 15 s, which makes it possible for the forecasting strategies to be validated in real-time. The results show that both methods present strong capabilities for travel time forecasting: considering the entire freeway, in 90% of the cases it was obtained a maximum forecasting error of 25% up to a forecasting horizon of 45 min. Furthermore, both methods perform as good as, or better than, the average historical. In particular, it is obtained that for horizons larger than 45 min, the forecasting depended exclusively on the historical data. For the dataset considered, the assessment study also showed that the model-based approach was more suitable for horizons shorter than 30 min
Jay, Oliver Edward. "Short-term fingertip contact with cold materials." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2002. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/33785.
Full textDogan, Gamze. "Grid reliability assessment for short-term planning." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2018. https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/276775/3/Content.docx.
Full textDoctorat en Sciences de l'ingénieur et technologie
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
Söderberg, Max Joel, and Axel Meurling. "Feature selection in short-term load forecasting." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-259692.
Full textI denna rapport undersöks korrelation och betydelsen av olika attribut för att förutspå energiförbrukning 24 timmar framåt. Attributen härstammar från tre kategorier: väder, tid och tidigare energiförbrukning. Korrelationerna tas fram genom att utföra Pearson Correlation och Mutual Information. Detta resulterade i att de högst korrelerade attributen var de som representerar tidigare energiförbrukning, följt av temperatur och månad. Två identiska attributmängder erhölls genom att ranka attributen över korrelation. Tre attributmängder skapades manuellt. Den första mängden innehåll sju attribut som representerade tidigare energiförbrukning, en för varje dag, sju dagar innan datumet för prognosen av energiförbrukning. Den andra mängden bestod av väderoch tidsattribut. Den tredje mängden bestod av alla attribut från den första och andra mängden. Dessa mängder jämfördes sedan med hjälp av olika maskininlärningsmodeller. Resultaten visade att mängden med alla attribut och den med tidigare energiförbrukning gav bäst resultat för samtliga modeller.
Garisch, Jarryd. "Short-term return reversion on the JSE." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/12331.
Full textThis study explores the existence of mean reversion in returns on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Finding that most research on the JSE applies to the long term, this paper investigates mean reversion across relatively shorter periods. Thus investment horizons between 1 and 30 days are considered. This paper finds that the standard short-term reversal strategy can be improved upon by a double application of the strategy. Furthermore, return reversal are found to be strongest when comparing prior 5 day returns with future 5 day returns. The best strategy is found to be the double application of the standard short-term reversal strategy using the 10th percentile of the 5 day prior returns and the 10th percentile of the 10 day prior returns. The long positions of this strategy still generated attractive returns over the market crash of 2008, making this a robust strategy. In general, long strategies outperform short strategies. However, over the crash period of 1 August 2008 to 1 April 2009 the short strategies offered more attractive returns and higher information ratios. Other additions to the strategy, such as moving average and kicker rules, fail to add value or reduce risk. Extending the holding period of the standard short-term reversal strategy generally results in poorer performance across all percentiles. The results in this paper pertain to the top 60 shares on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange ranked by market capitalisation on 10 August 2012. These cover a sample period ranging from 1 January 1998 to 10 August 2012. The analysis presented in this paper does not factor in the influence of trading costs. Such costs may be significant when portfolios are closed and opened frequently. An additional caveat is that many strategies lead to a small average number of positions, which is problematic for institutional traders.
Voráček, Lukáš. "Quantitative approach to short-term financial planning." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-113571.
Full textCicconi, Claudia. "Essays on macroeconometrics and short-term forecasting." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/209660.
Full textis composed of three chapters. The first two chapters are on nowcasting,
a topic that has received an increasing attention both among practitioners and
the academics especially in conjunction and in the aftermath of the 2008-2009
economic crisis. At the heart of the two chapters is the idea of exploiting the
information from data published at a higher frequency for obtaining early estimates
of the macroeconomic variable of interest. The models used to compute
the nowcasts are dynamic models conceived for handling in an efficient way
the characteristics of the data used in a real-time context, like the fact that due to the different frequencies and the non-synchronicity of the releases
the time series have in general missing data at the end of the sample. While
the first chapter uses a small model like a VAR for nowcasting Italian GDP,
the second one makes use of a dynamic factor model, more suitable to handle
medium-large data sets, for providing early estimates of the employment in
the euro area. The third chapter develops a topic only marginally touched
by the second chapter, i.e. the estimation of dynamic factor models on data characterized by block-structures.
The firrst chapter assesses the accuracy of the Italian GDP nowcasts based
on a small information set consisting of GDP itself, the industrial production
index and the Economic Sentiment Indicator. The task is carried out by using
real-time vintages of data in an out-of-sample exercise over rolling windows
of data. Beside using real-time data, the real-time setting of the exercise is
also guaranteed by updating the nowcasts according to the historical release calendar. The model used to compute the nowcasts is a mixed-frequency Vector
Autoregressive (VAR) model, cast in state-space form and estimated by
maximum likelihood. The results show that the model can provide quite accurate
early estimates of the Italian GDP growth rates not only with respect
to a naive benchmark but also with respect to a bridge model based on the
same information set and a mixed-frequency VAR with only GDP and the industrial production index.
The chapter also analyzes with some attention the role of the Economic Sentiment
Indicator, and of soft information in general. The comparison of our
mixed-frequency VAR with one with only GDP and the industrial production
index clearly shows that using soft information helps obtaining more accurate
early estimates. Evidence is also found that the advantage from using soft
information goes beyond its timeliness.
In the second chapter we focus on nowcasting the quarterly national account
employment of the euro area making use of both country-specific and
area wide information. The relevance of anticipating Eurostat estimates of
employment rests on the fact that, despite it represents an important macroeconomic
variable, euro area employment is measured at a relatively low frequency
(quarterly) and published with a considerable delay (approximately
two months and a half). Obtaining an early estimate of this variable is possible
thanks to the fact that several Member States publish employment data and
employment-related statistics in advance with respect to the Eurostat release
of the euro area employment. Data availability represents, nevertheless, a
major limit as country-level time series are in general non homogeneous, have
different starting periods and, in some cases, are very short. We construct a
data set of monthly and quarterly time series consisting of both aggregate and
country-level data on Quarterly National Account employment, employment
expectations from business surveys and Labour Force Survey employment and
unemployment. In order to perform a real time out-of-sample exercise simulating
the (pseudo) real-time availability of the data, we construct an artificial
calendar of data releases based on the effective calendar observed during the first quarter of 2012. The model used to compute the nowcasts is a dynamic
factor model allowing for mixed-frequency data, missing data at the beginning
of the sample and ragged edges typical of non synchronous data releases. Our
results show that using country-specific information as soon as it is available
allows to obtain reasonably accurate estimates of the employment of the euro
area about fifteen days before the end of the quarter.
We also look at the nowcasts of employment of the four largest Member
States. We find that (with the exception of France) augmenting the dynamic
factor model with country-specific factors provides better results than those
obtained with the model without country-specific factors.
The third chapter of the thesis deals with dynamic factor models on data
characterized by local cross-correlation due to the presence of block-structures.
The latter is modeled by introducing block-specific factors, i.e. factors that
are specific to blocks of time series. We propose an algorithm to estimate the model by (quasi) maximum likelihood and use it to run Monte Carlo
simulations to evaluate the effects of modeling or not the block-structure on
the estimates of common factors. We find two main results: first, that in finite samples modeling the block-structure, beside being interesting per se, can help
reducing the model miss-specification and getting more accurate estimates
of the common factors; second, that imposing a wrong block-structure or
imposing a block-structure when it is not present does not have negative
effects on the estimates of the common factors. These two results allow us
to conclude that it is always recommendable to model the block-structure
especially if the characteristics of the data suggest that there is one.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
Nigrini, L. B., and G. D. Jordaan. "Short term load forecasting using neural networks." Journal for New Generation Sciences, Vol 11, Issue 3: Central University of Technology, Free State, Bloemfontein, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/11462/646.
Full textSeveral forecasting models are available for research in predicting the shape of electric load curves. The development of Artificial Intelligence (AI), especially Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), can be applied to model short term load forecasting. Because of their input-output mapping ability, ANN's are well-suited for load forecasting applications. ANN's have been used extensively as time series predictors; these can include feed-forward networks that make use of a sliding window over the input data sequence. Using a combination of a time series and a neural network prediction method, the past events of the load data can be explored and used to train a neural network to predict the next load point. In this study, an investigation into the use of ANN's for short term load forecasting for Bloemfontein, Free State has been conducted with the MATLAB Neural Network Toolbox where ANN capabilities in load forecasting, with the use of only load history as input values, are demonstrated.
Hung, Meng-Chiu, and 洪夢秋. "Applications of TOPMODEL for long/short terms runoff simulation." Thesis, 2005. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/51452165591591020383.
Full text國立臺灣海洋大學
河海工程學系
93
TOPMOEDL is a semi-distributed hydrological model. In the model, the depth from the ground surface to the groundwater table is estimated based on the assumption of an exponential decay of the hydraulic conductivity in relation to the depth, and a quasi-steady state configuration of the water table is parallel to the local surface slope. TOPMODEL is mainly applied to long-term runoff simulations. While the model is applied to short-term runoff simulations, the assumption is violated because the successive steady state cannot be achieved due to low transport velocity of the subsurface flow. Consequently, a dynamic TOPMODEL was developed in this study. In this model, subsurface flow is transported using kinematic-wave theory solved by using a finite difference algorithm. The Heng-Chi watershed, which is located in the Tan-Shui River Basin, is adopted for applying the TOPMODEL and dynamic TOPMODEL for long/short terms runoff simulations. The topographic index and the geomorphic parameters of the watershed were calculated by using a digital elevation model. Hydrologic records of the watershed were collected for model parameters verification and runoff simulations. Variation of the model parameter values, which were calibrated by using the TOPMODEL and dynamic TOPMODEL, was found negligible. In performing these two models for runoff simulations, most interflow were found to be included into the subsurface flow simulation while using the TOPMODEL; nevertheless, most interflow was considered as surface flow in the dynamic TOPMODEL simulations. Moreover, TOPMODEL can obtain better results for the daily-flow simulations, and a better performance can be found in hourly-flow simulations while applying the dynamic TOPMODEL especially for storm peak prediction.
Le, Roux Stefan. "The immediate and short term effect of spinal manipulative therapy (SMT) on asymptomatic amateur golfers in terms of performance indicators." Thesis, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10321/373.
Full textGolfing literature today recommends to both the amateur and professional golfers to try and achieve maximum performance with each golf club (Seaman, 1998 and Bulbulian, Ball and Seaman, 2001). This encourages golfers to use a state of maximum spinal rotation in their golf swing in order to achieve optimal performance (Seaman, 1998), thus resulting in back pain becoming endemic in the golfing population. Thus if it is considered that performance, in terms of the golf swing, is mainly influenced by; • the strength and power of the torso, i.e. the low back and abdominal muscles (Chek, 2003), • as well as muscle balance and flexibility, i.e. those muscles which are responsible for the static and dynamic postural stability of the golf swing (Chek, 2003). It then stands to reason that any decrease in the range of motion of the lumbar or thoracic spine of the amateur golfer, in terms of biomechanics, could affect their performance (Nordin and Frankel, 2001). In this regard it is hypothesised that altered biomechanics could be that of asymptomatic segmental joint dysfunction . In terms of interventions Kirkaldy-Willis and Burton (1992) explained the effect of SMT in the treatment of low back pain, similarly Bergmann et al. (1993) and Vernon and Mrozek (2005) further proposed the following effects of spinal manipulative therapy (SMT): • SMT may stretch or break intra-articular adhesions that form from immobilised facet joints due to acute synovial reactions. • SMT allows entrapped menisci to exit the facet joint in which it became entrapped. • If the capsule of the facet gets lodged between two adjacent articular surfaces, the process of SMT could allow this to be freed. • SMT re-aligns misaligned spinal segments to conform to the centre of gravity. It was thus assumed that if these mechanical and reflex mechanisms occur in the symptomatic amateur golfer, they should also occur in the asymptomatic amateur golfer. Currently however very little is known about the effects of spinal manipulative therapy (SMT) on asymptomatic segmental joint dysfunction. Objective: Therefore, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the immediate and short term effect of spinal manipulative therapy (SMT) on asymptomatic amateur golfers in terms of performance indicators. Methods: Forty three asymptomatic participants were randomized to four equal groups consisting of ten participants each (and three drop outs). Three of the groups received a single intervention, i.e. spinal manipulative therapy (SMT) while the last group acted as a placebo control group and received no intervention. Objective measurements were taken using the EDH Sports-FlightScope Pro Electronic Swing Analyser. All objective data collection took place pre and post SMT. Statistical analysis included various statistical methods and correlation analyses, by means of the latest version of SPSS. Results and conclusions: The main findings were that certain outcomes seem to be better with lumbar manipulation alone (smash, horizontal azimuth) and others better with thoracic manipulation alone (CHV, vertical azimuth, distance), but none are better with both lumbar and thoracic manipulation. Therefore in terms of future studies of this nature the treatment groups should be analysed separately and the research powered for such analyses (e.g. larger sample sizes).
HUANG, JIAN-KAI, and 黃建凱. "Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting Model Using Long Short-Term Memory." Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/3wr7cn.
Full text逢甲大學
電機工程學系
107
The smart grid is considered to be a highly complex system, and its effective management is a huge challenge. Load forecasting is closely related to the development of power systems, such as energy market analysis, economic dispatch and safety assessment, and has therefore been identified as a key issue in how to effectively manage the grid. How to effectively use the vast amount of information provided by smart meters will be the focus of future research. This paper proposes three short-term load forecasting architectures based on Long short-term memory neural networks (LSTM). There are several important improvements to improve forecasting performance. First, to improve the accuracy of neural networks, an algorithm combining wavelet transform and LSTM is proposed. Second, using the autocorrelation coefficient to filter the input data to enhance the value of the data, it can improve the efficiency of machine learning. And combined with different features to improve the overall architecture versatility. In addition, a time-series data segmentation architecture is proposed. For time-series data, data segmentation is performed under different conditions. This can effectively improve the performance of a single LSTM. The amount of data that LSTM needs to process is reduced. If it is combined with parallel computing technology, the required computing time can be greatly reduced. Finally, a time-series multi-step target prediction method is proposed, and the accuracy can still be maintained under the condition of prolonging the predicted target distance time. This study also designed a graphical user interface (GUI) for short-term load forecasting, so that users can get the information quickly and easily.