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1
Renton, Michael, Roger Lawes, Tess Metcalf, and Michael Robertson. "Considering long-term ecological effects on future land-use options when making tactical break-crop decisions in cropping systems." Crop and Pasture Science 66, no. 6 (2015): 610. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/cp14135.
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In cropping systems where one type of crop dominates for economic reasons, farmers may employ alternative cropping or pasture options for strategic purposes such as controlling weed populations, reducing crop disease, and accumulating soil nitrogen. Tactical decisions regarding break crops often involve understanding the economic implications of several interacting bio-physical factors, along with complex trade-offs between short-term benefits, such as immediate profit, and long-term ecological problems, such as increased weed seedbank. Modelling analysis regarding tactical crop-sequencing and break-crop decisions has generally not addressed these longer term dynamic factors. In this study we adapted an analysis and modelling framework (LUSO), originally designed to aid understanding of the long-term strategic planning of agricultural crop and pasture rotations, so that it can be used to analyse immediate tactical decisions regarding break crops and sequencing, while still accounting for both short- and long-term implications of these decisions. We show how the revised framework was applied to two example scenarios and demonstrate that in both cases it can be used for simple decision-support, as well as more in-depth analysis and insight into the factors influencing the immediate decision.
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Anderson, W. K., R. F. Brennan, K. W. Jayasena, S. Micic, J. H. Moore, and T. Nordblom. "Tactical crop management for improved productivity in winter-dominant rainfall regions: a review." Crop and Pasture Science 71, no. 7 (2020): 621. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/cp19315.
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This study reviews published information on the tactical management decisions needed to maximise economic grain yield in winter-dominant rainfall regions of the Mediterranean type. Tactical decisions are defined as those relating to the period from immediately before sowing to harvest. Tactical management is the principal means by which farmers respond to changing environmental and short-term economic conditions as the season progresses. The review considers published evidence that underpins these decisions and relates to cereal crops (wheat, barley and oats), pulse crops (field pea, faba bean, chickpea and narrow-leaved lupin) and canola. The criteria used to guide management decisions during the season involve soil and tissue tests for nutrients, knowledge of weed numbers and resistance status in the current and previous seasons, weather conditions that favour disease development, and knowledge of thresholds and biology of insect pests that may warrant control measures. All of these decisions can be related to the timing of the opening rains and the length of the growing season; the crop, pasture or weeds present in the previous two seasons; the presence of pest- and disease-bearing crop residues; and the type of tillage in use. Most of these indicators require further refinement through research across environments, soil types, crop types and production systems. The likely interactions between tactical or short-term management decisions, longer term or strategic decisions, and genetic factors are discussed. The prevalent use of chemicals in the management of biotic factors that can impact the crops is noted, as is progress towards various systems of ‘integrated’ management of these threats to crop production. Most tactical decisions in rainfed cropping systems appear to be supported by adequate evidence, although some decisions are still based on practical experience and observations. Application of tactical management practices together with strategic management and use of improved genotypes provides the possibility of achieving rainfall-limited potential grain yield at a regional scale. The papers reviewed have been selected partly on the basis that the experimental treatments achieved the estimated potential grain yield. Where the potential grain yields are not being achieved in commercial crops, it remains unclear whether this is due to inadequate adoption of existing information or inadequate research to identify and address the underlying causes. We highlight the need to devise a simple decision aid to assist farmers and their advisers to respond to the variable seasonal conditions evident since the turn of the Century.
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Michael, Isaac, Benjamin G. Serpell, Carmen M. Colomer, and Jocelyn K. Mara. "Analysing the short-term impact of substitutes vs. starters in international rugby." International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching 14, no. 5 (September 18, 2019): 667–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1747954119874163.
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The aim of this study was to compare the short-term performance of substitute players to starting players during International Rugby Union matches and determine how this performance was influenced by playing position, the timing of the substitution and the score margin between teams. Individual player performances (n = 298) for substitutes and the starters they replaced were observed across 17 matches played between tier 1 rugby nations. Performance was categorised as the total number of involvements, the number of attacking and defensive involvements, as well as the effectiveness of a player's performance for each of the above involvement categories. Results revealed forward substitutes performed more total ( p = 0.001, ES = 0.61), attacking ( p = 0.026, ES = 0.32) and defensive ( p = 0.023, ES = 0.31) involvements than forward starters; however, there were no differences found for backs ( p = 0.819–0.911). In addition, it was observed that an increase in score margin at the time of substitution led to a decrease in the total and attacking involvements per minute that a substitute performed, but an increase in defensive involvements for both forwards and backs. These findings provide a platform for coaches to make tactical decisions regarding substitution patterns during International Rugby matches. Specifically, coaches should prioritise forward substitutions over back substitutions, and implement tactical changes earlier in the second half to gain an advantage over the opposition.
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Behrendt, Karl, Oscar Cacho, James M. Scott, and Randall Jones. "Optimising pasture and grazing management decisions on the Cicerone Project farmlets over variable time horizons." Animal Production Science 53, no. 8 (2013): 796. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/an11174.
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This study addresses the problem of balancing the trade-offs between the need for animal production, profit, and the goal of achieving persistence of desirable species within grazing systems. The bioeconomic framework applied in this study takes into account the impact of climate risk and the management of pastures and grazing rules on the botanical composition of the pasture resource, a factor that impacts on livestock production and economic returns over time. The framework establishes the links between inputs, the state of the pasture resource and outputs, to identify optimal pasture development strategies. The analysis is based on the application of a dynamic pasture resource development simulation model within a seasonal stochastic dynamic programming framework. This enables the derivation of optimum decisions within complex grazing enterprises, over both short-term tactical (such as grazing rest) and long-term strategic (such as pasture renovation) time frames and under climatic uncertainty. The simulation model is parameterised using data and systems from the Cicerone Project farmlet experiment. Results indicate that the strategic decision of pasture renovation should only be considered when pastures are in a severely degraded state, whereas the tactical use of grazing rest or low stocking rates should be considered as the most profitable means of maintaining adequate proportions of desirable species within a pasture sward. The optimal stocking rates identified reflected a pattern which may best be described as a seasonal saving and consumption cycle. The optimal tactical and strategic decisions at different pasture states, based on biomass and species composition, varies both between seasons and in response to the imposed soil fertility regime. Implications of these findings at the whole-farm level are discussed in the context of the Cicerone Project farmlets.
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Prokopy, Linda Stalker, Tonya Haigh, Amber Saylor Mase, Jim Angel, Chad Hart, Cody Knutson, Maria Carmen Lemos, et al. "Agricultural Advisors: A Receptive Audience for Weather and Climate Information?" Weather, Climate, and Society 5, no. 2 (April 1, 2013): 162–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-12-00036.1.
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Abstract As the climate in the midwestern United States becomes increasingly variable because of global climate change, it is critical to provide tools to the agricultural community to ensure adaptability and profitability of agricultural cropping systems. When used by farmers and their advisors, agricultural decision support tools can reduce uncertainty and risks in the planning, operation, and management decisions of the farm enterprise. Agricultural advisors have historically played a key role in providing information and guidance in these decisions. However, little is known about what these advisors know or think about weather and climate information and their willingness to incorporate this type of information into their advice to farmers. In this exploratory study, a diverse set of professionals who advise corn growers, including government, nonprofit, for-profit, and agricultural extension personnel, were surveyed in four states in the midwestern Corn Belt. Results from the survey indicate that advisors are more influenced by current weather conditions and 1–7-day forecasts than longer-term climate outlooks. Advisors predominantly consider historical weather trends and/or forecasts in their advice to farmers on short-term operational decisions versus longer-term tactical and strategic decisions. The main conclusion from this analysis is that opportunities exist to further engage the advisor community on weather and climate issues and, through them, the farmers who are managing the land.
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Ho, C. K. M., W. J. Wales, M. J. Auldist, and B. Malcolm. "Evaluating the economics of short-term partial mixed ration feeding decisions for dairy cows." Animal Production Science 58, no. 8 (2018): 1531. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/an17769.
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Recent research in Australia has measured the marginal milk production responses of cows grazing perennial-based pastures to supplements offered as a partial mixed ration (PMR). In the present study, the milk responses to PMR feeding developed under a restricted pasture allowance were used to examine the contribution to farm profit of decisions about short-term feeding (weekly, monthly). A short-term, or tactical, decision was considered to be one where the infrastructure and equipment needed to mix and feed out a formulated ration were already available. The decision was, therefore, the choice of whether to feed supplements as grain in the dairy at milking and forage in the paddock, or to feed the supplements as a mixed ration on a feed pad. Both of these options were assumed to exist for the farmer decision-maker, with the comparison of rations being based solely on the costs of supplement and milk income. The Control diet in the experiments comprised cereal grain fed in the dairy and pasture silage fed in the paddock, simulating a situation where pasture available for grazing was limiting. The PMR diet consisted of cereal grain, maize grain, maize silage and lucerne hay combined in a mixer wagon and fed on a feed pad. The PMR + canola diet was similar to the PMR diet, but included canola meal. The profitability of the diets for different amounts of supplement intake was compared by estimating the total income from milk produced minus the cost of the supplements. The results indicated that feeding the diet comprising PMR plus canola meal in early lactation contributed more to farm profit than did the Control diet of feeding grain in the dairy and forage in the paddock, or PMR feeding without canola meal, because of higher milk production. At a supplement intake of 12 kg DM/cow.day, the PMR + canola diet added AU$0.97/cow.day and AU$2.11/cow.day more to profit than the Control and PMR without canola meal diets, respectively. For a farm already equipped with a feed pad and mixer wagon, the benefits of feeding a mixed ration exceed the costs in early lactation. In late lactation, each diet made similar contributions to farm profit because of similar milk production.
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Ho, C. K. M., J. W. Heard, W. J. Wales, J. L. Jacobs, P. T. Doyle, and B. Malcolm. "Evaluating the economics of concentrate feeding decisions in grazing dairy cows." Animal Production Science 58, no. 7 (2018): 1329. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/an16122.
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Purchased concentrates are a significant variable cost of a dairy business. Farm economic theory states that feeding supplements will enable a dairy farmer to improve profit as long as the marginal revenue received from the milk produced exceeds the marginal cost of the supplement. To do this, the quantities of milk, milk protein and milk fat produced from a unit of concentrate added to the diet are needed. Recent research has compiled results from short-term concentrate feeding experiments conducted in Victoria over a 30-year period. Using these data, relationships for the response of milk production to cereal grain supplements in dairy cows grazing temperate pastures have been developed and shown to be a better predictor than previous relationships. These response functions were used in the present study to investigate the economics of tactical (short-term; weekly, monthly or seasonally) and strategic (medium- to longer-term) supplementary feeding decisions in a pasture-based system, including, specifically, how much concentrate should be fed in a particular farm situation, given a certain feed cost and milk price. In the present paper, the relevant production economics method is explained and applied to determine the amount of supplement to feed that will maximise the margin of total extra milk income minus the total cost of supplement, thereby adding the most to farm profit. Currently, when dairy farmers make decisions about how much more supplement to feed their herd, they are making implicit judgements about the extra milk, and other potential benefits, that they expect to result as well as what the milk will be worth. More finely tuned decisions about feeding supplements based on comparing marginal cost and marginal revenue would add more to farm profit than decisions based on other common criteria, such as feeding supplement for maximum milk production. While some farmers may already be feeding supplements close to the point where marginal cost equals marginal revenue, the formal method of marginal analysis reported here makes explicit what is done implicitly at present and tests farmers’ intuitive decision-making. More detailed information about the responses to supplements and the costs and benefits of feeding supplements under particular circumstances at different times through the lactation has the potential to enable better, more profitable decisions to be made about feeding cows and managing the whole farm.
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Hess, Svjetlana, and Mirano Hess. "PREDICTABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TERMINAL OPERATIONS IN THE SEA." TRANSPORT 25, no. 2 (June 30, 2010): 148–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/transport.2010.18.
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This paper considers a problem of planning short term operations in a bulk terminal faced by port management when making tactical decisions. Ship loading and discharging, cargo stocking, the maintenance and service of facility equipment are regular operations of a bulk terminal which is a subsystem of a sea port the conduct of which is subject to difficult‐to‐predict or unforeseen influences. The problem that port management encounters in day to day operations looks into making the best possible plan with the scheduled duration of operations/states and transition instants, considering various internal and external factors influencing terminal performance. A state and transition model is used for deriving effective solutions to obtaining the state order and state transition time of a bulk terminal with an objective of minimizing operational costs. The behaviour of the terminal is tested applying the stochastic and deterministic method.
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Ben-Asher, Noam, and Joachim Meyer. "The Triad of Risk-Related Behaviors (TriRB): A Three-Dimensional Model of Cyber Risk Taking." Human Factors: The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 60, no. 8 (July 10, 2018): 1163–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0018720818783953.
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Objective: We identify three risk-related behaviors in coping with cyber threats—the exposure to risk a person chooses, use of security features, and responses to security indications. The combinations of behaviors that users choose determine how well they cope with threats and the severity of adverse events they experience. Background: End users’ coping with risks is a major factor in cybersecurity. This behavior results from a combination of risk-related behaviors rather than from a single risk-taking tendency. Method: In two experiments, participants played a Tetris-like game, attempting to maximize their gains, while exogenous occasional attacks could diminish earnings. An alerting system provided indications about possible attacks, and participants could take protective actions to limit the losses from attacks. Results: Variables such as the costs of protective actions, reliability of the alerting system, and attack severity affected the three behaviors differently. Also, users dynamically adjusted each of the three risk-related behaviors after gaining experience with the system. Conclusion: The results demonstrate that users’ risk taking is the complex combination of three behaviors rather than the expression of a general risk-taking tendency. The use of security features, exposure to risk, and responses to security indications reflect long-term strategy, short-term tactical decisions, and immediate maneuvering in coping with risks in dynamic environments. Application: The results have implications for the analysis of cybersecurity-related decisions and actions as well as for the evaluation and design of systems and targeted interventions in other domains.
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Bacci, Maurizio, Youchaou Ousman Baoua, and Vieri Tarchiani. "Agrometeorological Forecast for Smallholder Farmers: A Powerful Tool for Weather-Informed Crops Management in the Sahel." Sustainability 12, no. 8 (April 16, 2020): 3246. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12083246.
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Agriculture production in Nigerien rural areas mainly depends on weather variability. Weather forecasts produced by national or international bodies have very limited dissemination in rural areas and even if broadcast by local radio, they remain generic and limited to short-term information. According to several experiences in West Africa, weather and climate services (WCSs) have great potential to support farmers’ decision making. The challenge is to reach local communities with tailored information about the future weather to support strategic and tactical crop management decisions. WCSs, in West Africa, are mainly based on short-range weather forecasts and seasonal climate forecasts, while medium-range weather forecasts, even if potentially very useful for crop management, are rarely produced. This paper presents the results of a pilot initiative in Niger to reach farming communities with 10-day forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration—Global Forecast System (NOAA-GFS) produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). After the implementation of the download and treatment chain, the Niger National Meteorological Directorate can provide 10-day agrometeorological forecasts to the agricultural extension services in eight rural municipalities. Exploiting the users’ evaluation of the forecasts, an analysis of usability and overall performance of the service is described. The results demonstrate that, even in rural and remote areas, agrometeorological forecasts are valued as powerful and useful information for decision-making processes. The service can be implemented at low cost with effective technologies making it affordable and sustainable even in developing countries. Nonetheless, the service’s effectiveness depends on several aspects mainly related to the way information is communicated to the public.
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Rudachenko, O. O., V. O. Yesina, and I. O. Tararuiev. "Proposals for the Creation of a Roadmap for Innovative Development of Sectors of the National Economy." Business Inform 2, no. 529 (2022): 16–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2022-2-16-25.
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The article is aimed at substantiating proposals for the development of a roadmap for innovative development of sectors of the national economy. The roadmap is described as a visualization of a strategy that reflects the relation between strategic goals and tactical decisions over a defined period of time. The basis of such a map is the introduction of innovations and innovative technologies. Considering the very interpretation of such a strategy, we can conclude that the roadmap is an algorithm with sequential actions (stages), as presented in the article. The distribution of priority sectors of the national economy of Ukraine into four sectors is proposed: industrial; life-supporting; agricultural; trade. The authors identify four key factors that directly influence the innovative development of sectors of the national economy, i.e.: development of human potential; interaction of scientific and educational institutions with industry; improvement of the regulatory framework; development of the innovative ecosystem. The list of participants in the innovative development of sectors of the national economy that may be involved in strategic planning and participation in planned events is substantiated as follows: government; research and educational institutions; support and innovation services; economic entities; investors. A roadmap for innovative development of sectors of the national economy is developed, which enables direct participants of innovative development to form, control and influence short-term, medium and long-term actions aimed at achieving the strategic goals of the State, city, and community.
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Diviš, Roman, and Antonín Kavička. "Reflective Nested Simulations Supporting Optimizations within Sequential Railway Traffic Simulators." ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation 32, no. 1 (January 31, 2022): 1–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3467965.
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This article describes and discusses railway-traffic simulators that use reflective nested simulations. Such simulations support optimizations (decision-making) with a focus on the selection of the most suitable solution where selected types of traffic problems are present. This approach allows suspension of the ongoing main simulation at a given moment and, by using supportive nested simulations (working with an appropriate lookahead), assessment of the different acceptable solution variants for the problem encountered—that is, a what-if analysis is carried out. The variant that provides the best predicted operational results (based on a specific criterion) is then selected for continuing the suspended main simulation. The proposed procedures are associated, in particular, with the use of sequential simulators specifically developed for railway traffic simulations. Special attention is paid to parallel computations of replications both of the main simulation and of supportive nested simulations. The concept proposed, applicable to railway traffic modelling, has the following advantages. First, the solution variants for the existing traffic situation are analyzed with respect to the feasibility of direct monitoring and evaluation of the natural traffic indicators or the appropriate (multi-criterial) function. The indicator values compare the results obtained from the variants being tested. Second, the supporting nested simulations, which potentially use additional hierarchic nesting, can also include future occurrences of random effects (such as train delay), thereby enabling us to realistically assess future traffic in stochastic conditions. The guidelines presented (for exploiting nested simulations within application projects with time constraints) are illustrated on a simulation case study focusing on traffic assessment related to the track infrastructure of a passenger railway station. Nested simulations support decisions linked with dynamic assignments of platform tracks to delayed trains. The use of reflective nested simulations is appropriate particularly in situations in which a reasonable number of admissible variants are to be analyzed within decision-making problem solution. This method is applicable especially to the support of medium-term (tactical) and long-term (strategic) planning. Because of rather high computational and time demands, nested simulations are not recommended for solving short-term (operative) planning/control problems.
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Levchenko, V. V., P. P. Morgun, A. V. Voldokhin, A. Y. Abu Trabi, and A. S. Maslovsky. "Pyelonephritis in pregnancy: «traditional» drainage tactics and its results." Urology Herald 8, no. 1 (April 20, 2020): 39–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.21886/2308-6424-2020-8-1-39-48.
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Introduction. Urinary tract drainage for pyelonephritis in pregnancy (PiP) is a topic that is rarely covered in the literature. Available sources are based on personal experience and personal opinions of researchers. In this way, a wide range of tactical decisions is born in such conditions.Purpose of the study. To evaluate the effectiveness of the «traditional» draining treatment tactics for pyelonephritis in pregnant women.Materials and methods. The study included 124 cases of PiP with dilatation of the pyelocaliceal system. Signs of urolithiasis and congenital malformations of the upper urinary tract have not been identified. The average age of the patients was 25 (15–40) years. PiP in the first trimester was diagnosed in 11.3% of women, in the second trimester is in 57.3%, in the third trimester is in 31.4%. In 60.5% of cases, a right-sided PiP was observed, in 24.2% is a left-sided PiP, and in 16.1% it was bilateral PiP. Assessment of dilatation of the upper urinary tract revealed a slight and moderate hydronephrosis in 94.4% of patients, and significant in 5.6%. During treatment, all patients underwent stenting of the ureters. Scheduled stent replacement was performed 6–8 weeks after the initial stenting or drainage replacement. Conversion to percutaneous puncture drainage was required in 4 (3.3%) patients.Results. The early draining tactics of PiP was accompanied by a relatively rapid relief of hyperthermia (96.8% within 3 days) and leukocytosis (88.7% of patients within 4 days). The average hospital bed day for PiP was 4.6. 77.4% of patients required stent replacement during gestation. Stent-associated symptoms of varying severity were noted by 74% of women. Recurrent attack of pyelonephritis under stent drainage was observed in 19.4% of patients, the development of septicemia in 6.5%. In 5.7% of patients, a re-development of the pyelonephritis` attack was noted after removal of the internal drainage stent up to 2 months after delivery. Information was available on the birth and condition of the child at birth for 119 women. Delivery in term was observed in 89.5% of patients, premature spontaneous birth in 10.5%, of which with provocation of labor in 8.9%, with termination of pregnancy for medical reasons in 1.6% (development of preeclampsia, progression of the sepsis phenomena). Self-abortion, intrauterine fetal death or stillbirth was not observed in any woman.Conclusion. The relatively rapid relief of hyperthermia, leukocytosis, a short period of inpatient treatment, the absence of fetal death cases, maternal and infant mortality positively characterize the «traditional» draining tactics. At the same time, a high percentage of the frequency of the preterm delivery threat, maintenance therapy on the stent (16.1%), recurrent attacks of pyelonephritis in drainage conditions (19.6%) during gestation, and also after stent removal in the postpartum period (5.7%), other variations of stent-associated symptoms and complications create the basis for reflection, the search for more optimal tactical and therapeutic approaches.
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Korinyev, Valentyn, Serhii Romanchuk, and Svitlana Boiko. "Costs in the Marketing Planning System at the Enterprise." Central Ukrainian Scientific Bulletin. Economic Sciences, no. 5(38) (2020): 182–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.32515/2663-1636.2020.5(38).182-189.
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The problem of planning of marketing activity of domestic enterprises is defined and its features are investigated. An algorithm for the process of planning marketing activities according to the results of this study is proposed. The role of costs from the point of view of pricing at marketing planning is specified. It is established that the key to the success of the enterprise in modern conditions is the planning of its marketing activities, taking into account the peculiarities of the micro and macro environment. It is important for the company to pay attention to reducing marketing risks by reducing the uncertainty of operating conditions and concentration of resources in the most promising areas. Therefore, the company tries to reduce the level of risk in both long-term and short-term, developing and implementing strategic and tactical planning measures.Considerable attention should be paid to the level of costs for production and sales. This will achieve the goals set by the company and will improve the sales of the company's products and increase its profits. It is advisable to conduct a SWOT-analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the enterprise and apply a matrix of varieties of its strategic business units. In all areas and at all levels of planning the marketing activities of the enterprise requires the preparation and streamlining of decisions about the goals, means and measures that should ensure the production and sale of products that meet existing demand and future consumer needs. With such marketing planning, this will allow the company to decide on its pricing policy in order not to lose old and attract new customers, which will achieve production efficiency and product competitiveness.
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Glockner, Gregory D. "Effects of Air Traffic Congestion Delays under Several Flow-Management Policies." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1517, no. 1 (January 1996): 29–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198196151700104.
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Air traffic delays occur when demand for airports or airspace exceeds available capacity. Consequently, these delay effects can be lessened by increasing capacity or by modifying the air traffic demand. Increasing capacity is an important solution, but it is a long-range option involving major changes such as facility construction, fundamental procedural changes, and improvements in navigational equipment. For short-term decision making a tactical-optimization model can suggest alternative flight plans to reduce delays. However, a tactical-optimization model is extremely complex because of the uncertainty in airport-capacity forecasts, which primarily depend on weather. A practical implementation of a tactical-optimization model must therefore make approximations so that a solution may be computed quickly and be of good quality. A practical model framework for the congestion-delay problem is given; this model framework is a generalization of several other flow-management models. Congested situations are simulated, to compare the practical performance of this model to other air traffic management tactics.
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Davis, Robert G., and David L. Martell. "A decision support system that links short-term silvicultural operating plans with long-term forest-level strategic plans." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 23, no. 6 (June 1, 1993): 1078–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/x93-138.
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This paper describes a decision support system that forest managers can use to help evaluate short-term, site-specific silvicultural operating plans in terms of their potential impact on long-term, forest-level strategic objectives. The system is based upon strategic and tactical forest-level silvicultural planning models that are linked with each other and with a geographical information system. Managers can first use the strategic mathematical programming model to develop broad silvicultural strategies based on aggregate timber strata. These strategies help them to subjectively delineate specific candidate sites that might be treated during the first 10 years of a much longer planning horizon using a geographical information system and to describe potential silvicultural prescriptions for each candidate site. The tactical model identifies an annual silvicultural schedule for these candidate sites in the first 10 years, and a harvesting and regeneration schedule by 10-year periods for aggregate timber strata for the remainder of the planning horizon, that will maximize the sustainable yield of one or more timber species in the whole forest, given the candidate sites and treatments specified by the managers. The system is demonstrated on a 90 000 - ha area in northeastern Ontario.
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Borz, Stelian Alexandru. "Development of a Modality-Invariant Multi-Layer Perceptron to Predict Operational Events in Motor-Manual Willow Felling Operations." Forests 12, no. 4 (March 29, 2021): 406. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f12040406.
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Motor-manual operations are commonly implemented in the traditional and short rotation forestry. Deep knowledge of their performance is needed for various strategic, tactical and operational decisions that rely on large amounts of data. To overcome the limitations of traditional analytical methods, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been lately used to deal with various types of signals and problems to be solved. However, the reliability of AI models depends largely on the quality of the signals and on the sensing modalities used. Multimodal sensing was found to be suitable in developing AI models able to learn time and location-related data dependencies. For many reasons, such as the uncertainty of preserving the sensing location and the inter- and intra-variability of operational conditions and work behavior, the approach is particularly useful for monitoring motor-manual operations. The main aim of this study was to check if the use of acceleration data sensed at two locations on a brush cutter could provide a robust AI model characterized by invariance to data sensing location. As such, a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) with backpropagation was developed and used to learn and classify operational events from bimodally-collected acceleration data. The data needed for training and testing was collected in the central part of Romania. Data collection modalities were treated by fusion in the training dataset, then four single-modality testing datasets were used to check the performance of the model on a binary classification problem. Fine tuning of the regularization parameters (α term) has led to acceptable testing and generalization errors of the model measured as the binary cross-entropy (log loss). Irrespective of the hyperparameters’ tunning strategy, the classification accuracy (CA) was found to be very high, in many cases approaching 100%. However, the best models were those characterized by α set at 0.0001 and 0.1, for which the CA in the test datasets ranged from 99.1% to 99.9% and from 99.5% to 99.9%, respectively. Hence, data fusion in the training set was found to be a good strategy to build a robust model, able to deal with data collected by single modalities. As such, the developed MLP model not only removes the problem of sensor placement in such applications, but also automatically classifies the events in the time domain, enabling the integration of data collection, handling and analysis in a simple less resource-demanding workflow, and making it a feasible alternative to the traditional approach to the problem.
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Kharchuk, Yulia, and Alexander Kharchuk. "FORMATION OF A STRATEGY OF TERRITORIAL COMMUNITIES FOR THE PURPOSE OF ENSURING THEIR ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE CONTEXT OF THE LIMITATION THEORY." Scientific Notes of Ostroh Academy National University, "Economics" Series 1, no. 24(52) (March 31, 2022): 111–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.25264/2311-5149-2022-24(52)-111-119.
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The article reveals the peculiarities of the territorial communities strategy interpretation and formation in order to ensure the economic security of TC in the context of the theory of constraints. The authors highlight the legal framework for the activities and development of territorial communities in Ukraine, in particular the Laws of Ukraine "On Voluntary Association of Territorial Communities" and "On Cooperation of Territorial Communities", the Concept of Local Government Reform and Territorial Organization in Ukraine Development for 2021-2027, European Cohesion Policy 2021-2027, European Charter of Local Self-Government, Resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine "On the formation and liquidation of districts", Sustainable Development Goals of Ukraine until 2030, National Economic Strategy until 2030 Methodological recommendations for the formation and implementation of strategic and program documents for the socio-economic development of the territorial community, the Procedure for developing regional development strategies and action plans for their implementation, as well as monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of these regional strategies and action plans. The article considers the principles of TC strategy development: objectivity; validity and expediency; coordination; openness and transparency; parity; non-discrimination and equal access; efficiency; historical continuity; Sustainability. The ranking of Ukraine's regions by the number and type of TC was carried out. The essence of TC economic security is determined and the main limiting exogenous and endogenous factors of territorial communities effective activity in Ukraine are singled out. The authors consider the influence of limiting factors of TC's effective activity on the level of their economic security. The specifics of using the theory of constraints in the activities of territorial communities are considered. The relationship between the local communities development level and the quality of their strategy, concidering the limiting endogenous and exogenous factors. The necessity of development and strict observance of tactical and strategic measures implementation, rationality of making effective managerial decisions on the basis of reliable and relevant information is substantiated. The structure of the territorial communities strategies in the context of the restrictions theory and taking into account the peculiarities functioning in duetime of martial law is proposed. The directions for strengthening the competitive advantages of TG by effective use of their resource potential and ensuring economic security are highlighted. Emphasis was placed on the expediency of forming an TC strategy for the short, medium and long term with constant monitoring of the planned activities implementation and the ability to respond quickly to changes in operating conditions.
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Berezka, K. M., O. V. Kneysler, N. Ya Spasiv, and H. M. Kulyna. "Information technology for forecasting the financial results of insurance companies." Ukrainian Journal of Information Technology 3, no. 2 (November 23, 2021): 87–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.23939/ujit2021.02.087.
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The purpose of time series modelling is to predict future indicators based on the study and analysis of past and present data. Various time series methods are used for forecasting. The article uses econometric extrapolation research methods. Analyzed scientific works are related to extrapolation methods for forecasting time series. The dynamics of the financial formation related to results of Ukrainian insurance companies by the types of their activities have been analyzed. The main factors that determine the effectiveness are determined. It was found that the most rational approach to short-term forecasting of the financial results of insurers is the use of exponential smoothing. The optimal parameters are selected for the model of exponential smoothing of the first and second order by the method on the grid. The following indicators of the quality of the model were used: the mean value of the standard deviation of the model error to the actual data, Theils coefficient of discrepancy, mean absolute percentage error MARE. The net financial result of the activities of Ukrainian insurers was predicted, the lower and upper bounds of the forecast for 2021 for a reliability level of 0.95. To predict the net financial result of the activities of Ukrainian insurers, statistical data for 10 years from 2011 to 2020 were used, the financial results of the main (insurance and other operating) activities before tax, the results of financial activities before tax, the financial results of other ordinary activities (extraordinary events) before tax, income tax. The prototype of the software module for predicting the financial performance of insurance companies was developed in Statistica and Excel. Forecasting results based on the use of econometric modelling make it possible to identify permanent positive shifts in the domestic insurance market and the activities of insurers on it; to confirm the effectiveness of the adopted strategic and tactical financial decisions of insurance companies; to increase the efficiency of insurers management based on the results of quantitative determination the degree of influence of each factor on the formation of the financial results related to their activities; to identify trends in the development of the situation in the future, to more accurately form a set of measures to maximize profits and minimize costs of insurance companies to ensure guarantees of reliable insurance protection and satisfy the interests of their owners. Keywords: financial results; insurance companies; net financial result; exponential smoothing; time series; econometric forecasting methods.
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Linehan, C. J., D. P. Armstrong, P. T. Doyle, and F. Johnson. "A survey of water use efficiency on irrigated dairy farms in northern Victoria." Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture 44, no. 2 (2004): 131. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/ea02234.
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Water use efficiency (WUE) in irrigated dairy systems has been defined, in this paper, as the amount of milk (kg milk fat plus protein) produced from pasture per megalitre of water (irrigation plus effective rainfall). A�farm survey was conducted for the 1997–98 and 1998–99 seasons in the Goulburn Irrigation System (GIS) and Murray Irrigation System (MIS) when the irrigation water allocated to irrigators in the GIS was low (100–120% of water right compared with the MIS which was 130 and 200% of water right). These data were analysed in conjunction with information collected on the same farms in the 1994–95 and 1995–96 seasons when the irrigation water allocated to irrigators in both systems was above 150% of water right (Armstrong et al. 1998, 2000). The aim of the survey was to determine if the management decisions made by dairy farmers in seasons of low irrigation water allocations had an impact on WUE.Milk production averaged across the 2 irrigation systems increased significantly over the 5-year period (57 540–75 040 kg milk fat + protein per farm). Over the same period the amount of irrigation water applied (GIS�7.6 ML/ha, MIS 9.2 ML/ha) and the milking area (GIS 72 ha, MIS 73 ha) remained constant. The amount of concentrates fed per cow (GIS 650–1100 kg DM, MIS 480–860 kg DM) and per farm (GIS 119–228 t DM, MIS�72–157 t DM) increased, but pasture consumption (GIS 8.9–9.5 t DM/ha, MIS 9.1–9.7 t DM/ha) did not increase significantly over the survey period. Therefore, the increase in milk production appeared to come primarily from an increase in supplementary feeding rather than an increase in pasture consumption, resulting in no significant change in WUE in either system (GIS 66 kg milk fat + protein/ML, MIS 61 kg milk fat + protein/ML).The survey results indicate that despite varying water allocations in the 2 major irrigation systems in northern Victoria, milk production on farms in both systems increased while changes in WUE could not be detected by the methods used. This suggests tactical options to increase WUE in response to short-term changes in water allocation were either difficult to implement or not a priority in a business sense.
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Fang, Lei, Qiang Wei, and Cheng Jian Xu. "Technical and Tactical Command Decision Algorithm of Football Matches Based on Big Data and Neural Network." Scientific Programming 2021 (April 7, 2021): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5544071.
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A successful football team not only consists of more than a dozen people on the field but also includes a complete training, analysis, coaching team behind it, and the same basic education and youth training system. With the development of scientific concepts and the advancement of computer technology, more people have begun to study the use of modern technology to replace part of the traditional human work with low creativity and the use of more convenient quantitative analysis, prediction and other technologies to assist football professionals’ decision-making. Based on big data and neural network technology, this paper has designed a novel football technical and tactical command decision algorithm. First, the use of big data technology for analyzing the characteristics of the historical big data of football competitions provides valuable data for the work of this article. Secondly, to formulate scientific and reasonable football technical and tactical command, it requires learning effective offensive or defensive strategies from the big data of football competitions. This article uses deep neural networks to learn massive amounts of football competition data, which can effectively predict the offensive and defensive tactics of each position of the team to a certain extent. In addition, in order to better learn the timing video data of football matches, this paper also has proposed to use long- and short-term memory networks to improve the algorithm of this paper. The proposed method has achieved good results in football technical and tactical command and decision-making and also provides some new ideas for the subject of football combined with computer technology.
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Bhaskar, Rahul. "Data Analysis for Dynamic Pricing in Airline." Journal of Cases on Information Technology 16, no. 1 (January 2014): 14–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/jcit.2014010102.
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The competitors in the airline industry often rely on pricing strategy to capture more sales as a main mean of competition. Thus, dynamic pricing is often utilized to maximize profit while allowing better pricing against competition at the same time. In order for dynamic pricing to be effective, airline company has to take in consideration both internal and external information. Tactical pricing is an important component for airline, for it provides both short term and long term strategies to ticket pricing. The case is an exemplification of how tactical pricing plays an important role in the decision making process of an airline company.
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Aull-Hyde, Rhonda L., and Solomon Tadesse. "A Strategic Agricultural Production Model with Risk and Return Considerations." Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 23, no. 1 (April 1994): 37–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1068280500000393.
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Decision support systems are generally geared to short-term tactical decision making. As an alternative, this paper develops a mathematical programming model to evaluate long-term strategic alternatives in the context of farm-level agricultural production where a broiler farm considers long-term implications of diversification into commercial aquaculture. The model considers a ten-year strategic planning horizon, incorporates financial risk and return considerations, and accommodates capacity variations. Results indicate that a diversification strategy significantly increases farm profitability over a strategic planning horizon while simultaneously maintaining financial risk below a predetermined tolerance level and return on investment above a predetermined level.
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Moschuris, Socrates John. "Decision-making criteria in tactical make-or-buy issues: an empirical analysis." EuroMed Journal of Business 10, no. 1 (May 5, 2015): 2–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/emjb-02-2014-0010.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to seek to contribute to the assessment of the impact of a number of decision-making criteria in resolving tactical make-or-buy issues in enterprises operating in Greece. Moreover, it sheds light on the relationship between the impact of each criterion and a number of independent variables. Design/methodology/approach – Initially, depth interviews were made with purchasing managers in ten industrial firms operating in Greece. The findings of these interviews and the review of the pertinent literature provided the basis for the questionnaire design. Then, a copy of the questionnaire and a prepaid self-addressed return envelope were mailed to a stratified sample of 300 industrial firms operating in Greece. By the end of this process, 85 questionnaires were received, representing a 28.3 percent response rate. Findings – Cost and quality appear to be the criteria with the most impact, which indicates that companies usually resolve tactical make-or-buy issues in order to achieve short-term cost savings or operational advantage. The emphasis placed upon the other criteria tends to vary with the situation under which the particular make-or-buy issue is resolved. Originality/value – It develops a more precise assessment of the impact of each make-or-buy decision-making criterion and investigates the relationship between this impact and a number of independent variables.
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Brown, Pete, Greg DeMarco, Don Keldsen, Hugh Mainzer, John Resta, Ryan Turner, and Leonard Marcus. "Promoting Unity of Effort Regarding the Use of Science to Inform Decision-making during Crises." International Oil Spill Conference Proceedings 2017, no. 1 (May 1, 2017): 2432–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.7901/2169-3358-2017.1.2432.
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Abstract: Following a disaster, decisions are often made under conditions that are volatile and uncertain. Decision-makers have sometimes taken actions during responses that may not adequately reflect scientific or technical input. This may result in longer term harm to people and the environment. This paper will describe the work of a diverse project team that attended Harvard University’s National Preparedness Leadership Initiative Program, which promotes the concept of using meta-leadership principles to improve response to crises. For its meta-leadership project, the team investigated the role of science in informing decision-making through the lens of the DWH response and other natural and man-made disasters. In simple terms, the team recommends a wide, “meta” view to better assess problems, applying a better informed scientific basis for decision making during times of crisis. Furthermore, the team believes that solutions derived from such a “meta” view would better track to the situation at hand. The conclusion was that leaders assuming this perspective are better equipped to do just that. The goal of the project was to utilize meta-leadership principles to:Identify means to better acquire, incorporate and apply scientific input including relative risks and rewards into crisis decision-making.Ensure that decision making protocols regarding response tactics, techniques and procedures include sound science that will lead to outcomes that minimize overall harm to human health and the environment in both the short and longer term.Effectively lead up, down, across and beyond by creating suggestions on how to appropriately create connectivity and communicate the basis for science-based decisions to key stakeholders, partners, and constituencies - including the public.
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Prokopenko, Antonina V., and Valeriia M. Rava. "TRAINING OF THE FUTURE INTERPRETERS’ WORKING MEMORY." Bulletin of Alfred Nobel University Series "Pedagogy and Psychology" 2, no. 22 (2021): 113–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.32342/2522-4115-2021-2-22-13.
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The article is devoted to the issues of functioning and training of short-term and long-term memory of future interpreters. The concept of translation competence is considered, and it is noted that in order for it to be at a rather high level, an interpreter needs to have a good knowledge of at least two cultures, navigate the flow of speech, find equivalents in memory as quickly as possible, make decisions about correct forms, and the most important is to have the idiomatic language skills. It is emphasized that the formation of the message should comply with social and cultural norms to facilitate its integration into the target language. This scientific study examines a model for coordinating the efforts that an interpreter must have in the process of interpreting messages. Techniques for developing the short-term memory of future interpreters are analyzed in detail. A cognitive interpreting model called the “Effort Model” is also studied, which focuses on the interpreter’s attention resources and their distribution during the interpretation. The paper notes that the coding of information is mainly carried out in three ways: acoustic, visual and semantic. Therefore, due to the correct coordination of all efforts, the interpreter will not only be able to perform the task well, but also to process and form the message, as well as save energy for further actions. Tools and tactics which develop short-term memory and improve rapid memory are identified. In particular, such tactics as the mnemonic method, categorization, generalization, comparison, description and creation of notes are presented. It is noted that short-term memory is based on the actual sense of sound, without filtering information, so the interpreter should be careful with the message that he / she transmits. Long-term memory involves neural pathways and synaptic connections, that is why it is better established in the interpreter’s brain. Thus, long-term memory is advantageous when the interpreter is better acquainted with the field to which the translation belongs; therefore, the interpretation is very accurate, due to the correct placement of words in the context. It is noted that one of the difficult tasks is to combine professional skills with theoretical knowledge. The authors conclude that the main goal of training future interpreters is to broaden their horizons and increase the knowledge and skills in several professional fields, and emphasize that future interpreters should identify a number of principles that will help in their professional activities.
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Buss, David M., and David P. Schmitt. "Mate Preferences and Their Behavioral Manifestations." Annual Review of Psychology 70, no. 1 (January 4, 2019): 77–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010418-103408.
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Evolved mate preferences comprise a central causal process in Darwin's theory of sexual selection. Their powerful influences have been documented in all sexually reproducing species, including in sexual strategies in humans. This article reviews the science of human mate preferences and their myriad behavioral manifestations. We discuss sex differences and sex similarities in human sexual psychology, which vary according to short-term and long-term mating contexts. We review context-specific shifts in mating strategy depending on individual, social, and ecological qualities such as mate value, life history strategy, sex ratio, gender economic inequality, and cultural norms. We review the empirical evidence for the impact of mate preferences on actual mating decisions. Mate preferences also dramatically influence tactics of mate attraction, tactics of mate retention, patterns of deception, causes of sexual regret, attraction to cues to sexual exploitability, attraction to cues to fertility, attraction to cues to resources and protection, derogation of competitors, causes of breakups, and patterns of remarriage. We conclude by articulating unresolved issues and offer a future agenda for the science of human mating, including how humans invent novel cultural technologies to better implement ancient sexual strategies and how cultural evolution may be dramatically influencing our evolved mating psychology.
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Gangestad, Steven W., and Jeffry A. Simpson. "Trade-offs, the allocation of reproductive effort, and the evolutionary psychology of human mating." Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23, no. 4 (August 2000): 624–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x00653372.
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This response reinforces several major themes in our target article: (a) the importance of sex-specific, within-sex variation in mating tactics; (b) the relevance of optimality thinking to understanding that variation; (c) the significance of special design for reconstructing evolutionary history; (d) the replicated findings that women's mating preferences vary across their menstrual cycle in ways revealing special design; and (e) the importance of applying market phenomena to understand the complex dynamics of mating. We also elaborate on three points: (1) Men who have indicators of genetic fitness may provide more direct benefits when female demand for extra-pair and short-term sex is very low; (2) both men and women track ecological cues to make mating decisions; and (3) more research on female orgasm is needed.
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Browning, B., J. Bruce, M. Bowling, and M. Veloso. "STP: Skills, tactics, and plays for multi-robot control in adversarial environments." Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part I: Journal of Systems and Control Engineering 219, no. 1 (February 1, 2005): 33–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1243/095965105x9470.
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In an adversarial multi-robot task, such as playing robot soccer, decisions for team and single-robot behaviour must be made quickly to take advantage of short-term fortuitous events. When no such opportunities exist, the team must execute sequences of coordinated team action that increases the likelihood of future opportunities. A hierarchical architecture, called STP, has been developed to control an autonomous team of robots operating in an adversarial environment. STP consists of skills for executing the low-level actions that make up robot behaviour, tactics for determining what skills to execute, and plays for coordinating synchronized activity among team members. The STP architecture combines each of these components to achieve autonomous team control. Moreover, the STP hierarchy allows for fast team response in adversarial environments while carrying out actions with longer goals. This article presents the STP architecture for controlling an autonomous robot team in a dynamic adversarial task that allows for coordinated team activity towards long-term goals, with the ability to respond rapidly to dynamic events. Secondly, the subcomponent of skills and tactics is presented as a generalized single-robot control hierarchy for hierarchical problem decomposition with flexible control policy implementation and reuse. Thirdly, the play techniques contribute as a generalized method for encoding and synchronizing team behaviour, providing multiple competing team responses, and for supporting effective strategy adaptation against opponent teams. STP has been fully implemented on a robot platform and thoroughly tested against a variety of unknown opponent teams in a number of RoboCup robot soccer competitions. These competition results are presented as a mechanism to analyse the performance of STP in a real setting.
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Barba-Martín, Raúl A., Daniel Bores-García, David Hortigüela-Alcalá, and Gustavo González-Calvo. "The Application of the Teaching Games for Understanding in Physical Education. Systematic Review of the Last Six Years." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 9 (May 11, 2020): 3330. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17093330.
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A systematic review of the research conducted on Teaching Games for Understanding in Physical Education in the last six years (2014–2019), updating and expanding with new categories the last published review by Harvey and Jarret in 2014. Four databases were used to select those articles that included information on the implementation of Teaching Games for Understanding in different educational stages. According to PRISMA guidelines and including the PICO strategy after the exclusion criteria, 12 articles were fully assessed based on eight criteria: (1) year and author; (2) country; (3) number of participants, educational level, and duration of implementation; (4) type of research; (5) curricular content; (6) purpose of the research; (7) most relevant results; and (8) learning environment. The results showed how research focuses on both primary and secondary education, primarily in short-term interventions. Quantitative, qualitative and mixed research is used almost equally, and dealt evenly with sports and games, leaving motor skills, physical abilities and body expression underrepresented. Regarding the goals of the studies, motor and cognitive learning were the most frequently assessed, focusing on improvement of game development, such as tactical aspects, decision-making, technical skills or level of physical activity. The implementation of the model is carried out in too short a time to achieve significant outcomes. This review can help researchers and practitioners conduct Teaching Games for Understanding intervention programs in primary and secondary Physical Education. They must be rigorous when they claim that they implement this pedagogical model in schools.
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Owens, Ed, and Richard Santner. "Integration of a Shoreline Response Program (SRP) and SCAT." International Oil Spill Conference Proceedings 2021, no. 1 (May 1, 2021): 679374. http://dx.doi.org/10.7901/2169-3358-2021.1.679374.
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ABSTRACT The Shoreline Response Program (SRP) is an adjustment within an Incident Management System (IMS) intended to improve current practices. An SRP builds on the recognized strengths of an IMS-based organization and of a SCAT program that utilizes an integrated and focused approach to streamline and better coordinate the decision and planning processes and the operational implementation activities. An SRP is an extension of the traditional SCAT program but with a broader focuses on strategic and tactical planning to minimize the short- and long-term impacts of oil on shorelines, the efforts and costs involved in a shoreline response, and the volumes of waste that would be generated. The inclusion of an SRP concept in drills, exercises and preparedness training can directly improve the ability to respond quickly and effectively during the initial response phase. Not implementing an SRP at the very outset of a spill response, when typically the best opportunities exist for the removal of bulk oil, can have significant long-term consequences. Shifting an emphasis on management and physical resources from, often only partially successful, on-water activities to onshore shoreline activities when oil can be picked up more rapidly and effectively can significantly reduce i) the footprint of the response, ii) the duration and scale of the shoreline operation, iii) the exposure of shore zone resources to the oil, and so accelerate environmental recovery, and iv) waste generation.
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Fu, Eugene Yujun, Wai Cheong Tam, Jun Wang, Richard Peacock, Paul A. Reneke, Grace Ngai, Hong Va Leong, and Thomas Cleary. "Predicting Flashover Occurrence using Surrogate Temperature Data." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 35, no. 17 (May 18, 2021): 14785–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v35i17.17736.
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Fire fighter fatalities and injuries in the U.S. remain too high and fire fighting too hazardous. Until now, fire fighters rely only on their experience to avoid life-threatening fire events, such as flashover. In this paper, we describe the development of a flashover prediction model which can be used to warn fire fighters before flashover occurs. Specifically, we consider the use of a fire simulation program to generate a set of synthetic data and an attention-based bidirectional long short-term memory to learn the complex relationships between temperature signals and flashover conditions. We first validate the fire simulation program with temperature measurements obtained from full-scale fire experiments. Then, we generate a set of synthetic temperature data which account for the realis-tic fire and vent opening conditions in a multi-compartment structure. Results show that our proposed method achieves promising performance for prediction of flashover even when temperature data is completely lost in the room of fire origin. It is believed that the flashover prediction model can facilitate the transformation of fire fighting tactics from traditional experience-based decision marking to data-driven decision marking and reduce fire fighter deaths and injuries.
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DiTommaso, Antonio, Kristine M. Averill, Michael P. Hoffmann, Jeffrey R. Fuchsberg, and John E. Losey. "Integrating Insect, Resistance, and Floral Resource Management in Weed Control Decision-Making." Weed Science 64, no. 4 (December 2016): 743–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1614/ws-d-16-00052.1.
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Managing agricultural pests with an incomplete understanding of the impacts that tactics have on crops, pests, and other organisms poses risks for loss of short-term profits and longer-term negative impacts, such as evolved resistance and nontarget effects. This is especially relevant for the management of weeds that are viewed almost exclusively as major impediments to crop production. Seldom considered in weed management are the benefits weeds provide in agroecosystems, which should be considered for optimal decision-making. Integration of weed costs and benefits will become increasingly important as management for pests transitions away from nearly complete reliance on herbicides and transgenic crop traits as the predominant approach for control. Here, we introduce a weed-management decision framework that accounts for weed benefits and exemplify how in-crop weed occurrence can increase crop yields in which a highly damaging insect also occurs. We highlight a case study showing how management decision-making for common milkweed, which is currently controlled primarily with glyphosate in herbicide-tolerant corn, can be improved by integrating management of the European corn borer (ECB), which is currently controlled primarily by the transgenic toxin Cry1 inBacillus thuringiensiscorn. Our data reveal that milkweed plants harboring aphids provide a food source (honeydew) for parasitoid wasps, which attack ECB eggs. Especially at high ECB population densities (> 1 egg mass leaf–1), maintaining low milkweed densities (< 1 stem m–2), effectively helps to minimize yield losses from ECB and to increase the economic injury level of this aggressive perennial weed. In addition, milkweed is the host for the monarch butterfly, so breeding-ground occurrences of the plant, including crop fields, may help sustain populations of this iconic insect. Using a more-holistic approach to integrate the management of multiple crop pests has the capacity to improve decision-making at the field scale, which can improve outcomes at the landscape scale.
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Zilfyan, A. V., S. A. Avagyan, A. A. Muradyan, and E. S. Barsegyan. "Recommended tactics for mass vaccination of healthy individuals and COVID-19 convalescents." NEW ARMENIAN MEDICAL JOURNAL, no. 1 (2022): 4–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.56936/18290825-2022.16.1-4.
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This article presents our views on main scientific and methodological approaches regarding the advantages of conducting mass vaccination of healthy individuals and COVID-19 convalescents. First of all, the focus is on issues regarding the antigenic potencies of SARS-CoV-2, based on which vaccines have been created over the past three years that have successfully passed preclinical and clinical testing, as well as licensing. The subjects of specal discussion were aspects related to the short-term effect of the main vaccines, as a result of which revaccination is recommended. It is assumed that more than one antigenic determinant is expressed on the surface of SARS-CoV-2. In the conclusion paragraph, we have presented our own concept on most topical situational issues among the population of many countries in the process of vaccination against COVID-19. Is it worth getting vaccinated at all if complications can arise that lead to disability and death even in practically healthy individuals, not to mention the elderly contingent with chronic diseases? In making a positive decision, the question arises in terms of choosing a vaccine, since vaccines are used in different countries, in the production of which different scientific, methodological and technological approaches are used. If there is a need for re-vaccination within a short period after the first vaccination? As a rule, it is recommended to re-vaccinate in 14-30 days after the first vaccination. In this regard, there are concerns about the low efficacy (weak selective immunogenic activity) of vaccines. How expedient, if not contraindicated, is to “fully” vaccinate patients in the recovery period, as well as over the next one to two months, if they have high levels of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies? In case of re-vaccination, it is necessary to find out whether it is possible to get the second vaccination using a commercial vaccine of another manufacturer, especially since many developing countries do not currently have such a vaccine that has been introduced during the first vaccination. How competent is it to vaccinate a wide range of healthy individuals against COVID-19 and influenza - for the same time or with the shortest time interval?
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Singh, Shalini. "From Global North-South Divide to Sustainability: Shifting Policy Frameworks for International Development and Education." International and Multidisciplinary Journal of Social Sciences 9, no. 1 (March 30, 2020): 76. http://dx.doi.org/10.17583/rimcis.2020.4923.
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Education policies are becoming increasingly oriented towards employability (economic returns) and subjected to measurements especially post-2015. Despite resistance from different stakeholders, employability has become a global norm and funds for programmes with non-economic objectives, especially in low and middle-income countries have been cut tremendously (Singh & Ehlers, 2020). Is this a short term crisis, a faulty and confused policy decision, or a part of a long term policy agenda aimed at bigger changes with deeper policy linkages? Who is promoting it with what intentions? How should the actors in the education sector deal with it? This paper answers these questions by mapping and analysing the shift in policy framework for International Development from Global North-South Divide (1970s-2015) to Sustainability (2015 onwards) and its impact on the policy of education for development. It shows how International Organisations (IOs) used knowledge, information and policy linkages to gain control over states and UN created a narrative about sustainability rooted in environment to facilitate an obscure OECD agenda for sustainable economic growth, backed by World Bank and the IMF’s measurement and control tactics. It further explains how and why the development policies (reflected in education) of low, middle and high income countries converged post-2015.
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Boogert, Neeltje J., Cedric Zimmer, and Karen A. Spencer. "Pre- and post-natal stress have opposing effects on social information use." Biology Letters 9, no. 2 (April 23, 2013): 20121088. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2012.1088.
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Theoretical models of social learning predict that animals should copy others in variable environments where resource availability is relatively unpredictable. Although short-term exposure to unpredictable conditions in adulthood has been shown to encourage social learning, virtually nothing is known concerning whether and how developmental conditions affect social information use. Unpredictable food availability increases levels of the stress hormone corticosterone (CORT). In birds, CORT can be transferred from the mother to her eggs, and have downstream behavioural effects. We tested how pre-natal CORT elevation through egg injection, and chick post-natal development in unpredictable food conditions, affected social information use in adult Japanese quail ( Coturnix japonica ). Pre-natal CORT exposure encouraged quail to copy the foraging decisions of demonstrators in video playbacks, whereas post-natal food unpredictability led individuals to avoid the demonstrated food source. An individual's exposure to stress and uncertainty during development can thus affect its use of social foraging information in adulthood. However, the stressor's nature and developmental timing determine whether an adult will tend to copy conspecifics or do the opposite. Developmental effects on social information use might thus help explain individual differences in social foraging tactics and leadership.
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Stapff, Manfred. "Controlling the Covid-19 Pandemic without Killing the Economy: About Data Driven Decision Making with a Data Model Assessing Local Transmission Risk." Journal of Public Health International 3, no. 2 (November 20, 2020): 22–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.14302/issn.2641-4538.jphi-20-3621.
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Context In the face of further waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, it becomes essential to find a balance between protective actions to guard public health and restrictive measures which can collapse our economy. Background As a basis for public health decisions, officials still rely on metrics that were helpful in the beginning of the pandemic but are now not precise enough for a focused and targeted approach to keep the spread of the infection under control. This can lead to public mistrust, “pandemic tiredness”, and can cause unnecessary damage to the economy without having the desired protective effect on public health. Methods This article discusses various metrics, their advantages and caveats, and it provides suggestions for use in a more targeted and risk-based approach, as an alternative to the current “general lock-down” practice. It suggests the notion of including a concept of “risk contacts per area” to better describe the possibility of virus transmission than currently published metrics do. The article also suggests specific analyses of real-world data for the identification of populations at risk for severe courses of COVID-19 to allow more targeted protective actions. Discussion Data currently used to describe the COVID-19 pandemic lack important parameters like population density and the local likelihood of potentially infectious contacts. The currently often used “all or nothing” approach of shut-down orders needs to be replaced by more sophisticated tactics considering individual local exposure risks and need to be balanced towards metrics on economic short-term and long-term impact. In addition, smart analyses of real-world data may contribute to the effective protection of individuals at risk.
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Li, Biao, Liwen Wang, Zhiwei Xing, and Qian Luo. "Performance Evaluation of Multiflight Ground Handling Process." Aerospace 9, no. 5 (May 18, 2022): 273. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/aerospace9050273.
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The ever-increasing high density of flights arouses an urgent requirement to improve the effectiveness and performance of ground handling in airport operation. The implementation of coordinated airport decision-making quantifies the ground handling process into a series of key milestone nodes, which is more conducive for operators to reduce resource consumption and flight delays. An innovative performance evaluation method for the multiflight ground handling process is proposed based on shared information of milestone nodes in the ground handling. A dynamic performance evaluation model is established, which should superimpose the performance evaluation results of the single-flight ground handling process. Meanwhile, the indicators and weights of the single-flight performance evaluation are obtained by combining the ground handling process prediction and expected value. As time evolves, a matrix method for the multiflight ground handling performance evaluation is proposed to combine the logic and evolution of the process. It is shown that the average prediction accuracy of single-flight ground handling process nodes can be increased to 87.63%. The experimental analysis demonstrates that the objectivity, effectiveness and dynamics of the proposed approach can be the basis for short-term tactics in airport.
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Vidigal, Geraldo. "Loophole or Fire Alarm? The Consensus Requirement for the Appointment of Appellate Body Members and the Institutional Design of the WTO." Legal Issues of Economic Integration 48, Issue 1 (April 1, 2021): 67–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.54648/leie2021005.
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The past four years have shown that, in contrast to previous assessments that saw the WTO dispute settlement organs as exercising irresistible authority over the WTO Agreements, a WTO Member can single-handedly derail the functioning of the WTO by obstructing appointments to the Appellate Body. This article investigates the origins and character of this feature of theWTO Agreements and examines possible means to overcome it, arguing that merely appointing seven new Appellate Body members will not be sufficient to the future operation of the dispute settlement system. If Members wish to avoid obstruction of appointments becoming a regularly employed negotiation tactic, they must explicitly establish that this possibility is not an integral feature of the institutional design of the WTO– a fire alarm thatMembers can resort to in case they are dissatisfied with developments within the organization – but an unwarranted loophole in the WTO institutional structure. Among the possible courses of action available to address it, one that is both politically feasible in the short term and unlikely to have its legal effects disputed is a decision, made by consensus by theMembership, to clarify the relationship between the decision-making authority of the Ministerial Conference and the provisions governing appointment of Appellate Body members. World Trade Organization, Appellate Body, International Dispute Settlement, Institutional Design, Dispute Settlement Body, International Courts
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Farré, Imma, Michael Robertson, and Senthold Asseng. "Reliability of canola production in different rainfall zones of Western Australia." Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 58, no. 4 (2007): 326. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/ar06176.
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The area of canola in the wheat-based farming systems of the wheatbelt of Western Australia (WA) expanded rapidly during the 1990s and has subsequently decreased. Due to the short history of canola production in WA, there is little information on yield and oil content expectations in relation to rainfall, location, and soil type. In this paper we: (1) present the recent history of canola production in the context of the long-term climate record; (2) assess the effect of location, rainfall, soil type, and soil water at sowing on yield and oil content; and (3) determine cut-off sowing dates for profitable canola production. Simulations were run using the APSIM-Canola model with long-term climate records for 3 selected locations from the low-, medium-, and high-rainfall zones and different soil types. Analysis of recent trends in canola area showed that poor seasons and price volatility in the last few years have contributed to farmers’ perception of risk and hence the decline in area sown. Long-term simulations showed the importance of location, sowing date, soil type, and stored soil water at sowing on grain yield. Yield was negatively related to sowing date. Light-textured soils had lower yields and larger yield penalties with delayed sowing than heavy-textured soils. Soil water at sowing gave a yield advantage in most years in all locations studied, but especially in low- and medium-rainfall locations. Variation in oil content was most strongly affected by sowing date and location, while soil type and soil water at sowing had a minor effect. Long-term simulation analysis can be used as a tool to establish the latest possible sowing date to achieve profitable canola for different locations and soil types, given different canola prices and growing costs. Given the vulnerability of profitability to seasonal conditions, in the low- and medium-rainfall zone, the decision to grow canola should be tactical depending on stored soil water, sowing opportunities, seasonal climate outlook, prices, and costs. In contrast, in the high-rainfall zone, canola production is relatively low risk, and could become a reliable component of rotations.
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Cummings, Daniel B., John T. Groves, and Benjamin L. Turner. "Assessing the Role of Systems Thinking for Stocker Cattle Operations." Veterinary Sciences 10, no. 2 (January 18, 2023): 69. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vetsci10020069.
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Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is recognized as a complex multifactorial disease often resulting in significant economic losses for the stocker industry through reduced health and performance of feeder calves. Conventional approaches to manage BRD in stocker production systems can be challenged with a restricted view of the system, most importantly the structure, which drives the behavior of the system and fails to anticipate unintended consequences. The translation and implementation of systems thinking into veterinary medicine can offer an alternative method to problem-solving. Fundamental to the success of the systems thinker is the conceptualization of the Iceberg Diagram intended to identify root causes of complex problems such as BRD. Furthermore, veterinary and animal health professionals are well-positioned to serve as facilitators to establish creative tension, the positive energy necessary to identify high-leverage strategies. The interrelationships and interconnected behaviors of complex stocker systems warrant an understanding of various archetypes. Archetypes provide the systems thinker with a decision-making tool to explore tactics in a nonlinear fashion for the purpose of recognizing short- and long-term outcomes. Developing literacy in the discipline of systems thinking will further equip professionals with the skillset necessary to address the multitude of challenges ingrained in complex stocker cattle systems.
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Govender, Karthy, and Paul Swanepoel. "Cynicism and the Rule of Law: A Critical Analysis of President of the RSA V M&G Media Limited 2012 2 SA 50 (CC) and Associated Judgments." Southern African Public Law 30, no. 2 (December 1, 2017): 580–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.25159/2522-6800/3593.
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In June 2015 the High Court granted an interim order prohibiting Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir from leaving South Africa. Although Al-Bashir is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and South Africa is a signatory to the Rome Statute and has passed the Implementation Act, the government failed to arrest him as required by an order of court. Short-term political considerations appear to have outweighed the need to respect the rule of law. Parallels can be drawn between this incident and the decision by the executive to refuse access to the Khampepe Report when requested to do so by the Mail and Guardian newspaper. The report was prepared at the request of former President Mbeki by two senior South African judges, after a visit to Zimbabwe shortly before the election held in that country in 2002. In an attempt to prevent disclosure, the executive approached various courts on six different occasions and drew out the process for more than six years. The main issue in this case is the use of section 80 of the Promotion of Access to Information Act by the courts, a discretionary power that is applied sparingly. In terms of PAIA, the state is prevented from making reference to the content of a record in order to support a claim of exemption. In such instances, section 80 provides courts with the power to inspect the record – a procedure known as a ‘judicial peek’ – in order to make a determination as to whether the exemption is justified. This case provides a clear example of how the state cynically used this provision as a dilatory tactic in refusing access to the report. The current system that relies solely on the courts to handle access to information matters undermines the main objectives of the Act and is inefficient and costly. It is recommended that PAIA be amended to provide for an information commissioner with powers to mediate and make binding decisions.
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Kumar, Surender. "Artificial intelligence divulges effective tactics of top management institutes of India." Benchmarking: An International Journal 26, no. 7 (September 2, 2019): 2188–204. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/bij-08-2018-0251.
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Purpose The performance analysis of top 50 management institutions of India is conducted to understand their efficiency in utilizing available resources. The importance of different indicators is investigated to identify most preferred strategies of top management institutions in the country in order to meet the expectations of all stakeholders. Artificial neural networks models are applied for pattern recognition and classification purpose using self-organized map algorithms. A huge reservoir of young generation is being trained every year to meet the demand of business in different sectors of economies. It becomes a matter of concern to know the performance of the management institutes to ensure the overall national progress, which can be done by enabling organizations to improve their efficiency and effectiveness, provided the right information and skills are served. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) and self-organizing maps are utilized together to take advantages of optimization and prediction capabilities inherent in each method, and they may be beneficial to assess institution’s competitive position and design their own strategies in order to improve. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach The DEA is used to understand the utilization of resources by institutions on the bases of efficiency scores. Due to a greater flexibility and adaptability, neural technique, i.e. self-organized map, which is an artificial intelligence-based technique, a popular unsupervised learning model with a capability to capture patterns from data sets, is used. In this study, various parameters like qualification of faculty, research output of faculty members, expenditure made for functioning of the institution, etc., are considered. These academic and operational indicators are investigated in relation to the rank score and the efficiency score of top management institutions, and different strategies as a combination of input as well as output indicators are identified. Findings In the analysis, three types of strategies are identified. At present, the focus on salary packages of graduates seems the most utilized strategy. It is also observed that the strategy of having good performance, in terms of consultancy, peer and employer perception, has the highest success rate (in terms of score used for ranking). Results obtained using both techniques shows that due to high deviation and less explored research publications and sponsored research project is an opportunity that institutions can work upon to have maximum output. But to maintain consistency in terms of the high rank score and efficiency score, management institutions need to focus on consultancy, peer and employer perception. Practical implications This research identifies the different parameters categorized into various inputs and outputs for the management institutions in India for the benchmarking. It studies the importance of identified parameters in terms of success (rank score and efficiency score). Further investigation of relationship between parameters and success is conducted. Different strategies as a combination of parameters are identified. The current choice of top management institutions is revealed in terms of their preference and effectiveness of strategy. This research also provides some insight about long-term and short-term strategies, which may be beneficial to education managers or decision makers. Originality/value It is one of the rare papers in terms of performance measurement through data envelopment method and identification of strategy using artificial intelligence. This paper utilized a hybrid methodology that integrates these two data analytic methods to capture an innovative performance and strategies prediction in education system.
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Van der Heyden, Hervé, Guillaume J. Bilodeau, Odile Carisse, and Jean-Benoit Charron. "Monitoring of Peronospora destructor Primary and Secondary Inoculum by Real-Time qPCR." Plant Disease 104, no. 12 (December 2020): 3183–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1094/pdis-03-20-0687-re.
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Onion downy mildew (ODM), caused by Peronospora destructor, is a serious threat for onion growers worldwide. In southwestern Québec, Canada, a steady increase in occurrence of ODM has been observed since the mid-2000s. On onion, P. destructor can develop local and systemic infections producing numerous sporangia which act as initial inoculum locally and also for neighboring areas. It also produces oospores capable of surviving in soils and tissues for a prolonged period of time. A recent study showed that ODM epidemics are strongly associated with weather conditions related to production and survival of overwintering inoculum, stressing the need to understand the role of primary (initial) and secondary inoculum. However, P. destructor is an obligate biotrophic pathogen, which complicates the study of inoculum sources. This study aimed at developing a molecular assay specific to P. destructor, allowing its quantification in environmental samples. In this study, a reliable and sensitive hydrolysis probe-based assay multiplexed with an internal control was developed on the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region to quantify soil- and airborne inoculum of P. destructor. The assay specificity was tested against 17 isolates of P. destructor obtained from different locations worldwide, other members of the order Peronosporales, and various onion pathogens. Validation with artificially inoculated soil and air samples suggested a sensitivity of less than 10 sporangia g−1 of dry soil and 1 sporangium m−3 of air. Validation with environmental air samples shows a linear relationship between microscopic and real-time quantitative PCR counts. In naturally infested soils, inoculum ranged from 0 to 162 sporangia equivalent g−1 of dry soil, which supported the hypothesis of overwintering under northern climates. This assay will be useful for primary and secondary inoculum monitoring to help characterize ODM epidemiology and could be used for daily tactical and short-term strategic decision-making.
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Saha, Rajib, Mosammat Tahnin Tariq, and Mohammed Hadi. "Deep Learning Approach for Predictive Analytics to Support Diversion during Freeway Incidents." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2674, no. 6 (June 2020): 480–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198120917673.
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Route diversion during incidents on freeways has been proven to be a useful tactic to mitigate non-recurrent congestion. However, the capacity constraints created by the signals on the alternative routes put limits on the diversion process since the typical time-of-day (TOD) signal control cannot handle the sudden increase in the traffic on the arterials because of diversion. Thus, there is a need for active transportation management strategies that support agencies in identifying the potential diversion routes for freeway incidents and the need for adjusting the traffic signal timing under different incident and traffic conditions. This paper investigates the use of a data analytic approach based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) deep neural network method to predict the alternative routes dynamically using incident attributes and traffic status on the freeway, and travel time on both the freeway and alternative routes during the incident. Additionally, a methodology is proposed for the development of special signal plans for the critical intersections on the alternative arterials based on the results from the LSTM neural network, combined with simulation modeling, and signal timing optimization. The methodology developed in the paper can be easily implemented by the transportation agencies, as it is based on data that are generally available to the agencies. The results from this paper indicate that the developed methodology can be used as part of a decision support system (DSS) to manage the traffic proactively during the incidents on the freeways.
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Cherkashin, D. V., and A. V. Lyubimov. "The molecular marker of the preconditioning phenomenon HIF1α is a new pathway for early detection of visceral hypoxic conditions." Terapevticheskii arkhiv 92, no. 4 (May 19, 2020): 121–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.26442/00403660.2020.04.000473.
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Improvement and development of technologies for laboratory and instrumental examination of patients in recent years have greatly facilitated the diagnosis of ischemic myocardial damage. However, a decrease in the rating of cardiovascular diseases is not expected in the short term. This is due to an increase in the life expectancy of the population, general aging of the population and improving diagnostic capabilities and the provision of medical care. The time for verification of the diagnosis of ischemic disease, simplified the decision on treatment tactics were significantly reduced by introduction of X-ray contrast visualization examination methods such as angiography, quantitative and qualitative laboratory tests, development of diagnostic criteria based on the results of ultrasound and electrophysiological examination methods. Unfortunately, all these techniques are secondary in nature and are applied, when organ damage is for the most part already irreversible. Full restoration of organs is possible only if the patient is successfully evacuated to the hospital and there are specialists of the appropriate level of experiebce, X-ray surgical equipment with suitable supplies or pharmacological agents, usefull for quickly restoration the patency of the great vessels and normal blood flow. A large number of studies appear on the phenomenon of preconditioning at the present stage of development of fundamental medical science. The purpose of this article is to reveal the possibilities of using molecular markers of the phenomenon of preconditioning in the framework of the early detection of hypoxic conditions, the assessment of their diagnostic use in the clinic and the prevention of hypoxia-associated diseases.
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Chovnyuk, Yuriy, Sergey Kozupitsa, and Petro Cherednichenko. "CONSIDERATION OF INFLATION FACTORS IN THE TACTICS OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT AND EVALUATION OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS TO RESTORE WAR-LOST UKRAINIAN CITIES AND THEIR INFRASTRUCTURE." Urban development and spatial planning, no. 80 (May 30, 2022): 465–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.32347/2076-815x.2022.80.465-485.
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The aim of this work is not only to formulate and consider the most acute, painful and urgent problem of today's financial activity of modern Ukraine - the problem of accounting inflationary factors in financial management of domestic enterprises, but also to substantiate the basic criteria and methods of long-term and short-term financial decisions in modern complex conditions of inflation, crisis and depression of the state economy, which was destroyed by war Preparation and implementation of any financial transaction requires financial calculations. Today in Ukraine there are a number of problems related to the planning and implementation of financial operations under conditions of the war (and postwar) state and after the final Victory over the enemy of our country. Such problems include: interest accrual, development of operations plans, evaluation of final financial results of operations for their participants, making break-even changes in contracts, analysis of investment projects of reconstruction of cities, towns, settlements Ukraine destroyed by the war and their infrastructure, analysis of credit operations, etc.
Methods of financial calculations are an integral part of quantitative financial analysis and financial management. They distinguish between dynamic and static methods of analysis. Dynamic methods take into account the factor of time in financial operations and are used in planning operations and prospective evaluation of economic projects and investments. Static methods are used in financial control, accounting, the analysis of small investment projects. The theoretical basis of financial calculation methods consists of the financial rent scheme, methods for calculating simple and compound interest, the principle of time value of money and the principle of financial equivalence.
According to the principle of the time value of money, current (modern) money has a greater value than future money. That is, one currency today has more value than one currency tomorrow. The main reasons for the depreciation of money are: inflation, risk, the tendency to liquidity.
The time factor in financial calculations is accounted for by interest (or interest) rates, which allow each present amount of money to find an equivalent value in the future.
Usually under the interest money (interest) understand the absolute amount of income (profit) from the borrowing of money. In this case, the forms of borrowing can be different: the purchase of bonds, sale on credit, lending, investing, etc. Interest is measured in monetary units. Interest rates are the ratio of interest money received over a certain period of time to the amount of debt/investment. Interest rates are usually given as a ratio (in fractions/fractions of a unit) or as a percentage/interest. In financial calculations, interest rates are used as ratios. Interest periods, that is, the time intervals to which interest rates are tied, are usually defined in years for long-term investments (i.e., discrete interest).
A distinction is also made between simple and compound interest. If the amount to which the interest rate applies is the same (fixed with no accruals), accruals are made on simple interest and the interest rate is called simple. If interest for a previous period is added to the amount owed, and interest is charged again on the resulting amount, then compound interest is meant. The corresponding rate in this case is called compound interest (the same rate used in the financial analysis of long-term investment projects). Besides, the interest rate is also used as an indicator of the profitability (return) of a transaction. Therefore, with the help of interest rates it is possible to evaluate the efficiency of financial operations and, in particular, investment projects.
The investment process combines two opposing processes: the creation of a production object - the investment process itself and the process of successive income generation. The analysis of productive investment consists in the evaluation and comparison of the effectiveness of alternative projects. Any method of evaluation is associated with the reduction of monetary values to a single point in time. Usually the interest rate at which compound interest is charged is called the comparison rate. It is usually taken at the level of the average rate on long-term loans, which is valid in the market. At the same time the risk is taken into account in the form of an appropriate term.
During financial analysis of investment efficiency, the following indicators are most frequently used: 1) net cumulative profit; 2) payback period; 3) internal rate of return; 4) profitability. Usually methods of analysis based on discounting are used, i.e. time factor is taken into account. In addition, in this study, all four of the above methods for analyzing the effectiveness of investment projects have also been adjusted for inflation factors. According to the authors, this approach is important in financial management tactics and in the evaluation of investment projects related to the reconstruction of cities, towns and settlements in Ukraine destroyed by the ongoing war with the Russian Federation, as well as their infrastructure (including transportation).
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BESENYO, JANOS. "REVIEW HOW SHOULD WARS BE FOUGHT? MILITARY STRATEGY VS POLITICAL DECISIONS." NOVA VLOGA OBOROŽENIH SIL KOT ODZIV NA ASIMETRIČNE GROŽNJE/THE NEW ROLE OF ARMED FORCES AS A RESPONSE TO ASYMMETRIC THREATS, VOLUME 2020, ISSUE 22/3 (September 30, 2020): 133–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.33179/bsv.99.svi.11.cmc.22.3.rr.
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An extremely interesting read can be had by any reader who buys Professor Donald Stoker’s most recent book Why America Loses Wars – Limited War and US Strategy from the Korean War to the Present (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2019), which analyzes the wars and conflicts fought by the United States of America since the Korean War. After the provocative title of the book, the reader begins to read with some suspicion, as it does not fit into the image of the United States as the world's leading power, one which can persuade almost all the countries of the world to deal with it either in political or economic or military cooperation. This is why it is shocking to face how differently the leaders of American and Western countries think about war; in many cases they do not even know exactly what it means, and what the consequences of its outbreak and the fighting can be. In several conflicts it can be seen that in the world’s leading power, the political decision-makers thought in a completely different way in a given situation, often leading to conflicting decisions. This is not primarily due to political affiliation, but to the fact that the various actors involved in conflicts – politicians and soldiers – do not have a common vision of the goals and the results to be achieved or the strategies to be used. In many cases, it has led to unnecessary losses and wars that have gone on far longer than they needed to – see Iraq and Afghanistan. Policymakers are often unaware of the old wisdom of Carl von Clausewitz – often quoted by Stoker – formulated in his book On War, “War as Politics by other Means”. This assumes that politicians start a conflict with clear objectives, knowing exactly what results they want to achieve. In addition, they are aware that the success of a war, however short-term or limited, may be influenced by factors such as the geographical environment, economic background, logistical capabilities, social support, historical and cultural background, and so on. However, some of these factors may change during the conflict, so the objectives and strategies need to be reviewed from time to time and, if necessary, redesigned according to the realities of the time. Jordan Ellenberg took a similar view of these old truths in his book, How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking; he said “Countries don’t win wars just being braver than the other side, or freer, or slightly preferred by God. The winners are usually the guys who get 5% fewer of their planes shot down, or use 5% less fuel, or get 5% more nutrition into their infantry at 95% of the cost. That’s not the stuff war movies are made of, but it’s the stuff wars are made of. And there’s math every step of the way” . Even so, these things are constantly forgotten by most political decision-makers who lead their countries into endless wars, the consequences of which are suffered by the soldiers fighting the battles and the civilian population in the areas affected. Therefore, Stoker can rightly hold these decision-makers accountable for their lack of the proper application of strategic thinking. This is particularly important in view of the fact that the period of “limited war” which has characterized the last two decades is coming to an end, and the US may face increasingly equal opponents like China or Russia. The conflict against them is expected to be conventional, for which the American political and military leadership, accustomed to anti-insurgency operations and rapid success, is unlikely to be properly prepared. From this point of view, the book could even act as an alarm bell, so that leaders can begin preparations for the later period, although the author did not suggest how what he had articulated could be put into practice. One of the major strengths of the book is that it clarifies commonly used political and military concepts such as unilateralism, multilateralism, types of political objective, strategy, tactics, objectives, operations, pre-emptive and preventive war, gray zone war, limited war, little war, nested war, victory and peace. The other serious strength of the book is that it almost fanatically emphasizes the need for more active, effective dialogue and cooperation between the political and military sides, as a result of which interpretation problems between different groups and actors can be significantly reduced and cooperation can be improved. It was particularly interesting to me that the author presented several political and military events – not only from American but also from international environments – and the decision-making processes leading to them and their background, which many historians and military historians are not fully aware of. In addition to describing historical events, the author lists a large number of military and political strategists, such as Sun Tzu, Carl von Clausewitz, or Bernard Brodie (better known in the United States), and others, and he also outlines their thoughts – even if he disagrees with some of them – which in some way still have an impact on warfare to this day. However, in addition to the many positives, I missed the fact that although the author presented almost every American conflict in recent decades, he only talked about the US “getting into endless wars”, and not how on several occasions the war – as in Grenada, Panama, or the Balkans – also achieved its goal. Here, perhaps, it would have been worthwhile to take a closer look at what these successes were due to and to draw conclusions from them. However, this does not detract from the value of the book. I especially liked that Stoker stayed true to his university teaching past and built his book in a way that even those who are less familiar with the subject could profit from. This is aided by clear explanations and extensive discussions of the various concepts. This helps readers from different backgrounds get a unified picture of how political decision-making takes place, what a war is, how to fight it and, most importantly, how to finish it, what the different actors think about it, and the differences in the way of thinking of politicians and soldiers involved in war. On the other hand, it could also be extremely useful to political and strategic decision-makers, who often make decisions that have a very serious impact with minimal knowledge and a lack of adequate background information. As a veteran of 31 years as a professional soldier, one who began his career as a sergeant in the troops and finished as a colonel on the General Staff, I fully agree with the author's book, which should be read not only by American but all other countries' political and military leaders, as a kind of basic strategic course material to know how to make informed decisions on military issues, how to communicate successfully and intelligibly between political decision-making and the military communities implementing them, and what the consequences of the decisions they make may be.
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Pakhomova, Elena I. "Conflict potential of modern social and labor relations." VESTNIK INSTITUTA SOTZIOLOGII 13, no. 2S (2022): 115–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.19181/vis.2022.13.2s.820.
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The article examines the issues of protection of labour rights by Russian employees, that led to heated discussions at working meetings of employees of the Center for Comprehensive Social Research of FCTAS RAS, when it came to life values and the potential for protest activity. One of the main questions raised by V.V. Petukhov - Why, despite the importance and significance for many Russians of such a sphere of life as work, nevertheless, few people are ready to defend their labour rights by any means, in fact, rather adapting to the situation and often deliberately worsening their situation? The starting point for working on this text was an article by V.V. Petukhov "Crisis and protection of labour rights of citizens”, published in the journal "Sociological Research" in 2016. The main idea expressed in the article is to continue the scientific discussion of the ongoing changes in the social and labour sphere that characterise the behaviour of modern workers in cases of infringement or violation of labour rights. In the presented article, the author, continuing the reflections of V.V. Petukhov, demonstrates, based on the empirical data collected in the course of many years of research by the ISRAS, what tactics of labour behaviour and ways of defending the rights and interests are chosen by Russian workers, how they assess today the level of opportunities to influence the adoption of managerial decisions at the place of work, the ability to influence the improvement of working conditions. Based on the analysis, the author comes to the conclusion that in modern conditions, social and labour relations in Russia are not yet a favourable environment for the development of professional and qualification competencies, for productive and efficient work. Difficulties with the realisation of the labour rights of citizens, when the legal possibility of defending them is either not realised or is blocked, can lead to the radicalisation of certain groups of citizens. Moreover, the "foci" of such radicalisation, in the author´s opinion, will be localised in socio-professional groups and industries where the conditions of short-term (precarious) employment are most widespread.
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J. Miller, Nancy, Carol Engel-Enright, and David A. Brown. "Direct and moderation effects on U.S. apparel manufacturers’ engagement in network ties." Journal of Entrepreneurship, Management and Innovation 17, no. 3 (2021): 67–113. http://dx.doi.org/10.7341/20211733.
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PURPOSE: Firms do not continue and prosper purely on their own individual endeavors, as each firm is influenced by the activities of others, and thus direct and indirect relationships shape the firm’s strategic management. These relationships form the tactics by which knowledge and other strategically important resources are accessed and created. Forming and maintaining ties among members of a network have been the subject of numerous research studies in the social, economic, and business literature. Our work is framed by the resource-based view of the firm perspective along with social capital theory and its shared constructs in network theory. Prior findings suggest that networking ties are strategic actions generated for firm growth and continuance. The ties may be short-term or develop into long-term relationships. The intent of this research is to fill some of the gaps in interorganizational networking strategy by analyzing five antecedents that have been suggested in the literature as individually associated with entrepreneurs’ engagement in network ties. In this way, our work provides another research avenue for examining networking’s contribution to strategic management. We hypothesized positive connections to entrepreneurs’ engagement in network ties from antecedents involving the firm’s knowledge absorptive capacity, business goals, entrepreneurial orientation, social interactions, and support from their environment. METHODOLOGY: In our quantitative approach, we tested our proposed macrolevel direct and moderating connections through an online survey of 125 U.S. apparel manufacturing firms. The apparel manufacturing sector in the U.S., as in many countries, has struggled with multiple disrupting factors contributing to the sector’s decline in firm continuance. FINDINGS: The results from OLS regression analyses support our hypothesized connections in that each of the five antecedents significantly contributed to entrepreneurs’ engagement in network ties; however, when all five were collectively examined only absorptive capacity, social interaction, and business goals were significant (R2 = 0.58). Further examination of moderation effects found the entrepreneurs’ perceptions of a supportive environment to modify both entrepreneurial orientation and business goals. RESEARCH AND PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: The effects of a supportive environment on business goals’ relationship with network ties were greater when perceptions of a supportive environment decreased, while the effects of a supportive environment on entrepreneurship orientation’s relationship with network ties were greater when perceptions of a supportive environment increased suggesting further study of U.S. entrepreneurs’ perceptions of their environments. Entrepreneurs’ interested in building domestic and international supply chain ties may find network ties provide one solution for adapting the firm’s resources for global competitiveness. Future studies may direct attention to other industry sectors or countries for replication with larger sample sizes as we recognize the limitations to generalizability and scale refinement due to our limited sample size. ORIGINALITY AND VALUE: The examination of five constructs to shed light on how an organization’s decisions may relate to engaging in networks and provides theoretical as well as practical implications that contribute to the larger organizational system framework.