Journal articles: 'Sex offenders risk assessment'

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Beech, Anthony R., Dawn D. Fisher, and David Thornton. "Risk assessment of sex offenders." Professional Psychology: Research and Practice 34, no. 4 (August 2003): 339–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0735-7028.34.4.339.

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Ferguson, Glenn E., Roy J. Eidelson, and Philip H. Witt. "New Jersey's Sex Offender Risk Assessment Scale: Preliminary Validity Data." Journal of Psychiatry & Law 26, no. 3 (September 1998): 327–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/009318539802600303.

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The Registrant Risk Assessment Scale (RRAS) was developed to aid New Jersey law enforcement representatives in assigning convicted sex offenders to risk tier classifications. The three risk tier classifications (low, moderate, and high risk) are linked to corresponding levels of community notification. The present study examined the scores of 574 adult males convicted of sex offenses in New Jersey on the seven RRAS items that assess static indicators of recidivism risk. Based on sentencing decisions, the sample included three groups of offenders: probationers, state prisoners, and those assigned to the Adult Diagnostic and Treatment Center (ADTC), an inpatient sex offender treatment facility for repetitive and compulsive offenders. An exploratory factor analysis of the RRAS items identified two important orthogonal factors: a forcible assault factor and a sexual deviance factor. One-way ANOVAs revealed significant differences among the three placement groups, with state prisoners tending to score highest on items reflecting antisocial orientation and forcible sexual assault and ADTC offenders scoring highest on items reflecting deviant sexual behavior. A discriminant analysis generated two distinct functions that classified well over half of the sample into their correct sentencing groups. Taken as a whole, the results provide preliminary support for the use of the RRAS in making sex offender risk determinations.

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Witt, Philip H., Joseph DelRusso, Jessica Oppenheim, and Glenn Ferguson. "Sex Offender Risk Assessment and the Law." Journal of Psychiatry & Law 24, no. 3 (September 1996): 343–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/009318539602400302.

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After discussing the historical, legal, and criminal justice context, the article reviews risk assessment principles for sex offenders. Issues of actuarial vs. clinical prediction, base-rate considerations, and duration of prediction are reviewed. The article next addresses specific factors found to predict sex offender recidivism, factors such as indicators of deviant sexual interest and an antisocial, psychopathic lifestyle. Finally, the article provides a current application in the form of New Jersey's Registrant Risk Assessment Scale to illustrate the risk assessment principles.

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Šobot, Valentina, Svetlana Ivanović-Kovačević, Vladimir Knežević, and Ana-Marija Vejnović. "Risk assessment of adolescent sex offenders: A case overview." Engrami, no. 00 (2022): 5. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/engrami43-35947.

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One of the most important roles of mental health professionals in the forensic evaluation of the adolescent sex offenders is to assess the risk of future delinquent behavior. A psychiatric and psychological expertise of a 17-year-old male adolescent, who was accused of rape, was conducted at court's request in order to determine the maturity of the juvenile, the risk of reoffending and the need for treatment. The current case report demonstrates risk assessment based on the structured professional evaluation. This approach integrates clinical with empirical knowledgeand it has been proven highly useful in risk assessment of sexual recidivism in adolescent sex offenders. The assessment was based on the integration of tha data obtained from the structured risk assessment tool Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (JSOAP-II,Prentky and Righthand, 2003) and data based on standard professional expertise by forensic clinicians. The aim of the present case report was to show the advantages of a structured approach to risk assessment in adolescent sex offenders, as well as to assess the practical implications related to appropriate case management and the need for treatment.

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Sahota, Kirpal Kaur. "Transgender sex offenders: gender dysphoria and sexual offending." Journal of Criminological Research, Policy and Practice 6, no. 3 (May 20, 2020): 255–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jcrpp-03-2020-0031.

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Purpose Transgender sex offenders are a small, complex and atypical group. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the issues in relationship to the assessment of gender dysphoria in transgender sex offenders and approaches to risk management. Design/methodology/approach Clinical and research experience as a Gender Specialist and Consultant Forensic Psychiatrist who has managed sex offender populations has informed this publication. Findings Little is known about the relationship between gender dysphoria and criminality. More research is required to develop a typology of transgender sex offenders and develop actuarial risk instruments. Protective factors in relation to gender affirmative care are also important to understand. Research limitations/implications There is little empirical research to guide gender specialists and criminal justice professionals in the management of gender dysphoria and address risk and recidivism in transgender offender populations. The treatment of gender dysphoria could result in improved well-being and better psychosocial adjustment but cannot be relied to reduce future recidivism. Practical implications There is no evidence that treatment of gender dysphoria reduces risk and recidivism in transgender sex offenders and that research is required to identify specific gender related dynamic risk factors. Social implications Recommendations are directly relevant to the work of prison and probation staff, community supervisors and gender identity specialists. Originality/value As far as the author is aware it is the first paper on the assessment and management of gender diverse sex offenders integrating approaches to gender dysphoria assessment and treatment and risk management. It has implication for gender identity specialists, criminal justice professionals, research and policy.

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JUNG, SANDY, and EDWARD P. RAWANA. "Risk and Need Assessment of Juvenile Offenders." Criminal Justice and Behavior 26, no. 1 (March 1999): 69–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0093854899026001004.

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The validity of a newly developed probation risk and need assessment instrument, the Ministry Risk/Need Assessment Form (MRNAF), was evaluated in a medium-sized Canadian city over-represented by Native Canadians. In the present study, 263 young offenders were assessed on the MRNAF. At 6 months, 250 youths were followed-up to determine if they had offended subsequent to their initial assessment. Results indicated that the total risk/need score and all of the eight risk/need factors could discriminate between recidivists and nonrecidivists. Moreover, despite some differences between Native and non-Native youths and between male and female youths, the ethnicity and sex of young offenders were inconsequential with regards to the instrument's prediction of recidivism. Therefore, the findings support MRNAF as a robust risk/need assessment instrument to ethnicity and sex.

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Christodoulides, T. E., G. Richardson, F. Graham, P. J. Kennedy, and T. P. Kelly *. "Risk assessment with adolescent sex offenders." Journal of Sexual Aggression 11, no. 1 (January 2005): 37–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13552600410001697848.

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Zgoba, Kristen M., Michael Miner, Jill Levenson, Raymond Knight, Elizabeth Letourneau, and David Thornton. "The Adam Walsh Act." Sexual Abuse 28, no. 8 (August 2, 2016): 722–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063215569543.

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This study was designed to compare the Adam Walsh Act (AWA) classification tiers with actuarial risk assessment instruments and existing state classification schemes in their respective abilities to identify sex offenders at high risk to re-offend. Data from 1,789 adult sex offenders released from prison in four states were collected (Minnesota, New Jersey, Florida, and South Carolina). On average, the sexual recidivism rate was approximately 5% at 5 years and 10% at 10 years. AWA Tier 2 offenders had higher Static-99R scores and higher recidivism rates than Tier 3 offenders, and in Florida, these inverse correlations were statistically significant. Actuarial measures and existing state tier systems, in contrast, did a better job of identifying high-risk offenders and recidivists. As well, we examined the distribution of risk assessment scores within and across tier categories, finding that a majority of sex offenders fall into AWA Tier 3, but more than half score low or moderately low on the Static-99R. The results indicate that the AWA sex offender classification scheme is a poor indicator of relative risk and is likely to result in a system that is less effective in protecting the public than those currently implemented in the states studied.

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Elwood, Richard W. "Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment." International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 60, no. 16 (July 28, 2016): 1928–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0306624x15587912.

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There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals’ risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals’ risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals’ risk of sexual recidivism.

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Elwood, Richard W. "Calculating Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment." International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 62, no. 5 (November 18, 2016): 1262–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0306624x16677784.

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Risk is the probability of an adverse event or outcome. In a previous article, I compared the Bayesian and Frequentist models of defining probability. This article compares the Bayesian and regression models of quantifying probability. Both approaches are widely used in the biomedical and behavioral sciences even though they yield different results. No consensus has emerged as to which is more appropriate. The choice between them remains controversial. This article concludes that the Bayesian model provides a viable alternative to logistic regression and may be more useful in quantifying the absolute recidivism risk of individual sex offenders. It shows how evaluators can easily calculate Bayesian probabilities and their associated credible intervals from an actuarial data set. Last, the article proposes a forensic practice guideline that evaluators do not conclude that an offender meets an absolute risk threshold unless the subject’s risk exceeds the threshold by a credible margin of error.

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Vess, James. "Ethical Practice in Sex Offender Assessment." Sexual Abuse 23, no. 3 (October 13, 2010): 381–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063210382045.

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The current generation of community protection laws represents a shift in priorities that may see the individual rights of sex offenders compromised for the goal of public safety. At the center of many judicial decisions under these laws are the risk assessment reports provided by mental health practitioners. The widespread enactment of laws allowing for additional sanctions for sex offenders, and a burgeoning research literature regarding the methods used to assess risk have served to heighten rather than resolve the ethical concerns associated with professional practice in this area. This article examines ethical issues inherent in the use of two assessment methods commonly used with sex offenders in the correctional context, focusing on actuarial measures and polygraph tests. Properly conducted and adequately reported actuarial findings are considered to provide useful information of sufficient accuracy to inform rather than mislead judicial decision makers, although careful consideration must be given to the limitations of current measures in each individual case. Despite its increasing use, polygraph testing is considered controversial, with little consensus regarding its accuracy or appropriate applications. On the basis of the current state of the professional literature regarding the polygraph, its use with sex offenders raises unresolved ethical concerns.

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HARRIS, GRANT T., and MARNIE E. RICE. "Actuarial Assessment of Risk among Sex Offenders." Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 989, no. 1 (January 24, 2006): 198–210. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-6632.2003.tb07306.x.

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13

Morgan, Wendy, and Elizabeth Gilchrist. "Risk assessment with intimate partner sex offenders." Journal of Sexual Aggression 16, no. 3 (September 30, 2010): 361–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13552600.2010.502976.

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Drury, Alan J., Matt DeLisi, and Michael Elbert. "Federal sex offender registration and notification act (SORNA) offenders: sexual versatility, criminal careers and supervision outcomes." Journal of Criminal Psychology 11, no. 4 (October 4, 2021): 357–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jcp-07-2021-0033.

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Purpose Sex offender registration and notification act (SORNA) offenders are a source of scholarly study across the social, behavioral, forensic and legal sciences with the bulk of literature focusing on the legal standing and deterrent value of sexual offender registries. Less research focuses on the offending careers of current SORNA offenders relative to other types of sexual offenders whose current offense is not SORNA. The purpose of the current study is to examine this issue empirically. Design/methodology/approach Using cross-sectional data from a census of male federal offenders who ever perpetrated a sexual offense from the central USA between 2016 and 2020, the current study used t-tests, logistic regression and negative binomial regression to compare current SORNA offenders to other federal correctional clients in terms of their lifetime offending history, sexual violence and compliance on federal supervision. Findings Current SORNA offenders are significantly more severe and versatile in their sexual offending, have more extensive criminal careers and criminal justice system involvement, and exhibit significantly increased odds of revocation on supervised release despite controls for age, race and ethnicity. However, sensitivity models that specified the federal Post-Conviction Risk Assessment reduced the effects of SORNA status to non-significance in all models. Originality/value SORNA offenders are potentially a significant offender group with evidence of both and given their versatile and specialized lifetime offending and noncompliance on federal supervision. However, current SORNA status is rendered spurious once a risk assessment is controlled suggesting more research is needed to evaluate whether sex offender registries posit greater crime control benefit.

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Ilacqua, Giorgio E., Grant E. Coulson, Diana Lombardo, and Verna Nutbrown. "Predictive Validity of the Young Offender Level of Service Inventory for Criminal Recidivism of Male and Female Young Offenders." Psychological Reports 84, no. 3_suppl (June 1999): 1214–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.2466/pr0.1999.84.3c.1214.

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164 male and female young offenders were given the Young Offender Level of Service Inventory. Scores from this 76-item risk assessment were used to produce a matched sample of 82 female and 82 male young offenders. Sex did not influence the 1-yr. criminal recidivism rate, a result consistent with other findings.

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Hempel, Inge, Nicole Buck, Maaike Cima, and Hjalmar van Marle. "Review of Risk Assessment Instruments for Juvenile Sex Offenders." International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 57, no. 2 (December 5, 2011): 208–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0306624x11428315.

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Risk assessment is considered to be a key element in the prevention of recidivism among juvenile sex offenders (JSOs), often by imposing long-term consequences based on that assessment. The authors reviewed the literature on the predictive accuracy of six well-known risk assessment instruments used to appraise risk among JSOs: the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (J-SOAP-II), Juvenile Sexual Offence Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool-II (J-SORRAT-II), Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offence Recidivism (ERASOR), Juvenile Risk Assessment Scale (JRAS), Structured Assessment of Violent Risk in Youth (SAVRY), and Hare Psychopathy Checklist:Youth Version (PCL:YV). Through a systematic search, 19 studies were reviewed. Studies showed differences in the predictive accuracies for general, violent, and sexual recidivism, and none of the instruments showed unequivocal positive results in predicting future offending. Not unexpectedly, the accuracy of the SAVRY and PCL:YV appeared to be weaker for sexual recidivism compared with specialized tools such as the J-SOAP-II or the ERASOR. Because of the rapid development of juveniles, it is questionable to impose long-term restrictions based on a risk assessment only. New challenges in improving risk assessment are discussed.

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Scott, Russ. "Risk Assessment and Sentencing of Serious Sex Offenders." Psychiatry, Psychology and Law 15, no. 2 (July 2008): 188–201. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13218710802132584.

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Lee, Seung C., and R. Karl Hanson. "Similar Predictive Accuracy of the Static-99R Risk Tool for White, Black, and Hispanic Sex Offenders in California." Criminal Justice and Behavior 44, no. 9 (June 7, 2017): 1125–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0093854817711477.

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Although considerable research has found overall moderate predictive validity of Static-99R, a sex offender risk prediction tool, relatively little research has addressed its potential for cultural bias. This prospective study evaluated the predictive validity of Static-99R across the three major ethnic groups (White, n = 789; Black, n = 466; Hispanic, n = 719) in the state of California. Static-99R was able to discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists among White, Black, and Hispanic sex offenders (all area under the curve [AUC] values >.70; odds ratios >1.39). Base rates (at a Static-99R score of 2) with a fixed 5-year follow-up across ethnic groups were very similar (2.4%-3.0%) but were significantly lower than the norms (5.6%). The current findings support the use of Static-99R in risk assessment procedures for sex offenders of White, Black, and Hispanic heritage, but it should be used with caution in estimating absolute sexual recidivism rates, particularly for Hispanic sex offenders.

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Grubin, Don. "Predictors of risk in serious sex offenders." British Journal of Psychiatry 170, S32 (April 1997): 17–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1192/s000712500029867x.

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With the exception of a very few prolific offenders, sex offending is not a high rate activity. Even recidivist offenders will commit only a small number of offences in their careers, and these may be separated by intervals of years. Because of this, anyone setting out to predict reoffending by sex offenders will do best if they simply assume that none will reoffend, in which case they will be right more often than not. But such an approach, of course, would be criticised for being oversimplistic. Sex offenders have a history, and there is a common belief that if we know enough about an individual's past we should be able to predict his future with great accuracy. This has led some workers to claim that if the right variables can be discovered and plugged into a risk assessment algorithm, then the resulting desktop prediction of risk will outperform any competing clinical method.

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Duwe, Grant, and Pamela J. Freske. "Using Logistic Regression Modeling to Predict Sexual Recidivism." Sexual Abuse 24, no. 4 (January 30, 2012): 350–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063211429470.

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This study presents the results from efforts to revise the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised (MnSOST-R), one of the most widely used sex offender risk-assessment tools. The updated instrument, the MnSOST-3, contains nine individual items, six of which are new. The population for this study consisted of the cross-validation sample for the MnSOST-R ( N = 220) and a contemporary sample of 2,315 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2006. To score and select items for the MnSOST-3, we used predicted probabilities generated from a multiple logistic regression model. We used bootstrap resampling to not only refine our selection of predictors but also internally validate the model. The results indicate the MnSOST-3 has a relatively high level of predictive discrimination, as evidenced by an apparent AUC of .821 and an optimism-corrected AUC of .796. The findings show the MnSOST-3 is well calibrated with actual recidivism rates for all but the highest risk offenders. Although estimating a penalized maximum likelihood model did not improve the overall calibration, the results suggest the MnSOST-3 may still be useful in helping identify high-risk offenders whose sexual recidivism risk exceeds 50%. Results from an interrater reliability assessment indicate the instrument, which is scored in a Microsoft Excel application, has an adequate degree of consistency across raters (ICC = .83 for both consistency and absolute agreement).

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21

Lawson, Louanne. "Female Sex Offenders’ Relationship Experiences." Violence and Victims 23, no. 3 (June 2008): 331–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1891/0886-6708.23.3.331.

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Interventions for child sexual abusers should take into account their perspectives on the context of their offenses, but no descriptions of everyday life from the offender’s point of view have been published. This study therefore explored female offenders’ views of their strengths and challenges. Documented risk assessments of 20 female offenders were analyzed using inductive content analysis (Cavanagh, 1997; Priest, Roberts, & Woods, 2002; Woods, Priest, & Roberts, 2002). The Good Lives Model provided the initial coding framework and ATLAS.ti software (Muhr, 1997) was used for simultaneous data collection and analysis. The content analysis yielded 999 coding decisions organized in three themes. The global theme was relationship experiences. Offenders described the quality of their relationship experiences, including their personal perspectives, intimate relationships, and social lives. These descriptions have implications for treatment planning and future research with women who have molested children.

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Kewley, Stephanie. "Policing registered sex offenders." Journal of Forensic Practice 19, no. 4 (November 13, 2017): 296–300. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jfp-03-2017-0006.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to outline current police risk assessment and management practice when working with those convicted of sexual offences. The paper introduces the newly implemented Active Risk Management System (ARMS), a risk- and strengths-based tool used by the police across England and Wales. Design/methodology/approach A brief review of the literature and current practice is discussed. Findings The paper notes that in order for practitioners to work in a context of rehabilitation and reintegration, particularly one that supports clients convicted of sexual offending, there is a real need for practitioners to have the skills and experiences to work with this group. They also need to hold core values that support the notion of change and they ought to be fully supported through formal supervision and training. Practical implications Following are the practical implications of this paper: ∙training ought to be regular and ongoing; formal supervision sessions should be made available for all ARMS assessors; assessors ought to be assessed and observed in practice; and performance measures must be related to the quality and effectiveness of the design and implementation of risk management plans rather than the quantity of plans or home visits. Originality/value Very little has been written about this unique group of police practitioners who work to assess and manage people with sexual convictions. Even less is known of the effectiveness and applicability of the ARMS tool. Thus, this review is of value to academic and practitioner audiences.

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Merdian, Hannah L., Nima Moghaddam, Douglas P. Boer, Nick Wilson, Jo Thakker, Cate Curtis, and Dave Dawson. "Fantasy-Driven Versus Contact-Driven Users of Child Sexual Exploitation Material: Offender Classification and Implications for Their Risk Assessment." Sexual Abuse 30, no. 3 (April 6, 2016): 230–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063216641109.

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Since the advent of the Internet, convictions for the possession, display, trading, and distribution of child sexual exploitation material (CSEM) have risen steadily, but little is known about their appropriate assessment and treatment, especially concerning their risk of reoffending. It has been suggested that a conceptual distinction of fantasy- versus contact-driven CSEM users might be of merit. Sixty-eight offenders recruited from sex offender treatment providers were assessed via an anonymous computer survey including a variety of clinical and risk-related variables; the findings showed differences in the psychological profiles between CSEM users and contact child sex offenders. Numerical and spatial methods of data analysis were used to identify subgroups of CSEM users; these confirmed the twofold distinction of fantasy- versus contact-driven offending. The spatial representation of participants identified three dimensions as crucial in the classification of these subgroups: direct sexual contact with a minor, possession of fantasy-generating material, and social contact with other users with a sexual interest in minors; potentially differentiating distinct offender subgroups with different risks and needs. The current study informed the development of an empirical model of CSEM users that could aid in the assessment of risk of reoffending and cross-over to contact sex offending.

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Boer, Douglas P., Susan Tough, and James Haaven. "Assessment of Risk Manageability of Intellectually Disabled Sex Offenders." Journal of Applied Research in Intellectual Disabilities 17, no. 4 (December 2004): 275–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-3148.2004.00214.x.

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Zaitchik, Matt C. "Risk Assessment of Juvenile Sex Offenders: A Case Report." Journal of Forensic Psychology Practice 5, no. 4 (December 2, 2005): 83–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1300/j158v05n04_06.

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GRUBIN, DON. "Actuarial and Clinical Assessment of Risk in Sex Offenders." Journal of Interpersonal Violence 14, no. 3 (March 1999): 331–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/088626099014003007.

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Wood, Melisa, and James R. P. Ogloff. "Victoria's Serious Sex Offenders Monitoring Act 2005: Implications for the Accuracy of Sex Offender Risk Assessment." Psychiatry, Psychology and Law 13, no. 2 (November 2006): 182–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1375/pplt.13.2.182.

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Duwe, Grant. "Better Practices in the Development and Validation of Recidivism Risk Assessments: The Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–4." Criminal Justice Policy Review 30, no. 4 (July 13, 2017): 538–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0887403417718608.

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This study examines the development and validation of the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–4 (MnSOST-4) on a dataset consisting of 5,745 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2012. Bootstrap resampling was used to select predictors, and k-fold and split-sample methods were used to internally validate the MnSOST-4. Using sex offense reconviction within 4 years of release from prison as the failure criterion, the data showed that 130 (2.3%) offenders in the overall sample were recidivists. Multiple classification methods and performance metrics were used to develop the MnSOST-4 and evaluate its predictive performance on the test set. The results from the regularized logistic regression algorithm showed that the MnSOST-4 performed well in predicting sexual recidivism in the test set, achieving an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.835. Additional analyses on the test set revealed that the MnSOST-4 outperformed the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–3 (MnSOST-3), Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised (MnSOST-R), and Static-99 in predicting sexual reoffending.

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Greenberg, David M. "Sexual Recidivism in Sex Offenders." Canadian Journal of Psychiatry 43, no. 5 (June 1998): 459–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/070674379804300502.

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Objective: To examine the recidivism rates of the various types of adult sex offenders including incest offenders, extrafamilial child molesters, exhibitionists, and rapists. Method: An examination of the literature over the past 4 decades and the data from our own study group. Results: Methodological shortfalls and differences across the studies make statistical appraisal of the results difficult. Nevertheless, there is a consensus that incest offenders are less likely to reoffend compared with extrafamilial child molesters. Rapists and exhibitionists are thought to be at a higher risk for recidivism. Conclusion: A combined actuarial predictive approach in conjunction with empirically guided clinical assessment is probably the best method to predict recidivism of sex offenders.

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Larcombe, Wendy. "Sex Offender Risk Assessment." Violence Against Women 18, no. 4 (April 2012): 482–501. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1077801212452249.

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Olver, Mark E., and Lindsay A. Sewall. "Cross-Validation of the Discrimination and Calibration Properties of the VRAG-R in a Treated Sexual Offender Sample." Criminal Justice and Behavior 45, no. 6 (March 14, 2018): 741–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0093854818762483.

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The present study featured an examination of the predictive properties of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide–Revised (VRAG-R) in a treated sample of sexual offenders, using modern risk metrics. The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) and the original Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) were examined for comparison purposes. The three measures were rated archivally on 296 treated sexual offenders followed up 17.6 years. VRAG-R scores demonstrated good discrimination of recidivists from nonrecidivists for sexual (area under the curve [AUC] = .60-.67) and violent (AUC = .70-.78) recidivism, and were incremental in the prediction of violent, but not sexual, recidivism after controlling for baseline sexual violence risk and treatment change. The VRAG-R bin structure demonstrated good calibration, although the present sample generated lower 5-year estimates of general violence compared with the normative sample. Application of the VRAG-R in the assessment and management of violence risk, via integration with dynamic risk assessment information, is discussed.

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Martínez-Catena, Ana, Santiago Redondo, Nina Frerich, and Anthony R. Beech. "A Dynamic Risk Factors–Based Typology of Sexual Offenders." International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 61, no. 14 (February 12, 2016): 1623–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0306624x16629399.

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The purpose of this article was to develop an Spanish psychometric typology of sexual offenders taking into account dynamic risk factors. The sample comprised 94 sex offenders imprisoned in Spain (52 rapists and 42 child molesters). The analysis yielded two different offender categories based on the subjects’ criminogenic needs level (high and low). The results also showed that social desirability has a strong influence on the developed typologies, whereas the offence type, sociodemographic characteristics, and criminal history do not. A dynamic risk factors typology, such as the one proposed here, could help criminal and correctional facilities to fulfill their remit. It could also be useful for linking treatment intensity to offenders’ criminogenic needs, as well as providing a platform for recidivism risk assessments.

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Langton, Calvin M., Howard E. Barbaree, Michael C. Seto, Edward J. Peacock, Leigh Harkins, and Kevin T. Hansen. "Actuarial Assessment of Risk for Reoffense Among Adult Sex Offenders." Criminal Justice and Behavior 34, no. 1 (January 2007): 37–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0093854806291157.

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34

Pouls, Claudia, and Inge Jeandarme. "Reliability and validity of the Static-99R in sex offenders with intellectual disabilities." Journal of Intellectual Disabilities and Offending Behaviour 13, no. 1 (December 7, 2021): 20–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jidob-08-2021-0013.

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Purpose Risk assessment studies involving recidivism in sex offenders with intellectual disabilities (SOIDs) continue to be scarce, limited and producing mixed results. This study aims (to test the ability ...) to test the ability of one such instrument (the Static-99R) to predict intramural sexual and violent incidents involving members of this group. Design/methodology/approach The Static-99R was prospectively scored for 38 SOIDs. Occurrences of any violent or sexual incident and/or illegal sexual behaviour were recorded during a minimum period of six months. Predictive accuracy was analysed using several performance indicators. Findings The Static-99R significantly predicted sexual incidents (area under the curve = 0.70) but failed to predict violent and illegal sexual incidents. Regarding illegal sexual incidents, the instrument was better at detecting low-risk individuals than high-risk offenders. Originality/value Risk assessment studies, both in offenders with and without an intellectual disability (ID), rarely use multiple accuracy estimates. The current study used both discrimination and calibration indicators to evaluate the ability of the Static-99R to detect low- and high-risk offenders.

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Roberts, Caton F., Dennis M. Doren, and David Thornton. "Dimensions Associated with Assessments of Sex Offender Recidivism Risk." Criminal Justice and Behavior 29, no. 5 (October 2002): 569–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/009385402236733.

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This research explored empirical dimensions of sex offender recidivism risk. Study 1 portrayed descriptive statistics and factor structure information concerning actuarial risk instruments and diagnoses derived from a sample of sex offenders being evaluated for civil commitment in Wisconsin. Study 2 used a sample from England and Wales to analyze the relationships between individual risk factors commonly found as items within actuarial scales. Factor structure results from Study 2 conceptually overlapped those found in the first sample, and variables developed from this factor structure predicted sexual reconviction as well. Results from these two studies are discussed in terms of separable components of risk for sexual recidivism and the roles those components may play in processes underlying sexual reoffense.

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Rettenberger, Martin, Marnie E. Rice, Grant T. Harris, and Reinhard Eher. "Actuarial risk assessment of sexual offenders: The psychometric properties of the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG)." Psychological Assessment 29, no. 6 (June 2017): 624–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pas0000390.

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Stevenson, Megan T., and Jennifer L. Doleac. "The Counterintuitive Consequences of Sex Offender Risk Assessments at Sentencing." University of Toronto Law Journal 73, Supplement 1 (August 1, 2023): 59–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.3138/utlj-2023-0014.

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Virginia adopted a risk assessment to help determine sentencing for sex offenders. It was incorporated as a one-way ratchet toward higher sentences: expanding the upper end of the sentence guidelines by up to 300 per cent. This led to a sharp increase in sentences for those convicted of sexual assault. More surprisingly, it also led to a decrease in sentences for those convicted of rape. This raises two questions: (a) why did sentencing patterns change differently across these groups, and (b) why would risk assessment lead to a reduction in sentence length? The first question is relatively easy to answer. While both groups saw an expansion in the upper end of the sentencing guidelines, only sexual assault had the floor lifted on the lower end, making leniency more costly. The second question is less straightforward. One potential explanation is that the risk assessment served as a political or moral shield that implicitly justified leniency for those in the lowest risk category. Even though the risk assessment did not change sentencing recommendations for low-risk individuals, it provided a ‘second opinion’ that could mitigate blame or guilt should the low-risk offender go on to reoffend. This decreased the risks of leniency and counterbalanced any increase in severity for high-risk individuals.

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Garland, Brett, Brian Calfano, and Eric Wodahl. "College Student Perceptions of Notification About Sex Offenders on Campus." Criminal Justice Policy Review 29, no. 3 (June 7, 2016): 240–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0887403416651670.

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Sexual victimization is a growing concern on college campuses. Although academic literature has examined the extent and perceived risk and fear of sexual assault at universities, studies focusing on college student attitudes about appropriate sex crime–related policies are severely limited. The Campus Sex Crimes Prevention Act of 2000 requires post-secondary institutions to provide a statement giving the campus community guidance on how to access information about registered sex offenders. Colleges and universities are afforded wide discretion regarding whether to use more direct and involved methods for notifying faculty, staff, and students. The current study examines how college students attending a Midwestern university feel about various approaches to notification about sex offenders on campus. Results indicate that impressions of vulnerability are driving some of student opinion about notification, but that other considerations, such as character assessment, privacy concerns, and feelings of uneasiness, are possibly having an impact as well. The findings also strongly support that female student input should be factored heavily into campus sex offender notification strategies.

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Kewley, Stephanie. "Policing people with sexual convictions using strengths-based approaches." Journal of Criminal Psychology 7, no. 3 (August 7, 2017): 168–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jcp-09-2016-0026.

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Purpose Effective risk management planning ought to include strategies that help control and mitigate risk, as well as develop and strengthen client’s protective factors. The active risk management system (ARMS) is a structured risk assessment and management planning tool designed to assess both dynamic factors known to be related to sexual recidivism, along with protective factors that might support the desistance process. The tool was recently implemented across all police forces in England and Wales. The purpose of this paper is to examine police practitioner’s experience of the tool, their attitudes towards risk assessment, risk management planning, interviewing clients for the assessment and their perspective on strengths-based approaches in general. Design/methodology/approach A mixed method approach is adopted including one attitudinal measure: community attitudes towards sexual offender-revised (CATSO-R); and four focus groups, analysed using interpretive phenomenological analysis (IPA). Findings CATSO-R results indicate that when compared to other populations, police officers appear to perceive sex offenders as dangerous, requiring severe punishment. These findings are supported in the IPA analysis where three themes highlight the following: principles and practices of the ARMS tool are incongruent with traditional policing; the negative values officers hold conflicts with a role that supports a process of reintegration and Training and supervision is insufficient to equip management of sexual offenders and violent offender’s with the skills and knowledge needed. Originality/value Only one study exists in which ARMS training and its pilot test were examined, this is the first empirical examination of its application in practice. Findings are therefore, of relevance to practitioners and academics alike.

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Vess, James, Tony Ward, and Rachael Collie. "Case formulation with sex offenders: An illustration of individualized risk assessment." Journal of Behavior Analysis of Offender and Victim Treatment and Prevention 1, no. 3 (2008): 284–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/h0100450.

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Mandeville-Norden, Rebecca, and Anthony R. Beech. "Risk assessment of sex offenders: the current position in the UK." Child Abuse Review 15, no. 4 (2006): 257–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/car.944.

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GRUBIN, DON, and DAVID THORNTON. "A National Program for the Assessment and Treatment of Sex Offenders in the English Prison System." Criminal Justice and Behavior 21, no. 1 (March 1994): 55–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0093854894021001005.

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A new national prison strategy for the assessment and treatment of sex offenders in England is described. Its main features are the potential inclusion of all convicted sex offenders sentenced to 4 or more years in prison, a coordinated and systematized assessment and treatment package, reliance on nonspecialist personnel to deliver treatment, and the integration of population and program research. Individuals are allocated to treatment depending on an assessment of the seriousness of their offending and their risk of reoffending, using an algorithm based on conviction history. The rationale underlying key decisions is described, and issues raised by the program are discussed.

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Campbell, Terence W. "Sex offenders and actuarial risk assessments: ethical considerations." Behavioral Sciences & the Law 21, no. 2 (March 2003): 269–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/bsl.530.

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Gualco, Barbara, Franco Scarpa, and Regina Rensi. "Assessment of Recidivism Risk in Sex Offenders: A Pilot Study in Central Italy." Healthcare 9, no. 11 (November 20, 2021): 1590. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/healthcare9111590.

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Knowing the risk factors of recidivism in sex offenders is important in order to prepare effective preventative interventions and treatment in custody. In this regard, the following paper shows the results of a pilot study carried out in the prisons of central Italy in which 44 sex offenders participated. These participants were given the following tests: Historical Clinical Risk Management-20-version 3 (HCR20v3), Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) and Personal Inventory Dimensional (PID-5). The results show a high positivity in the factors of the sub-scales H (historical factors) and C (clinical factors) of HCR20v3; the average total score of the PCR-L is 16.47, with five subjects who are in the “high psychopathy” range (X ≥ 30); with regard to PID-5, the most positive domain is negative affectivity (56.10%).

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Beshears, Michelle L., Mike L. Beshears, Dena Weiss, and Catherine D. Crocker. "Sex Offender Community Notification Law Reform: A Call for More Active, Consistent, and Detailed Information about High-Risk Offenders." International Journal of Social Science Studies 5, no. 5 (April 18, 2017): 71. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/ijsss.v5i5.2361.

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There has been quite a bit of controversy surrounding the enforcement of sex offender registration and community notification laws. A major argument against such laws involves the lumping of all sex offenders into a single category, which hinders offender management and public safety. Further exacerbating this problem is the fact that less than 35% of state registries provide the information necessary for citizens to make informed decisions regarding their safety, such as the victim’s age or gender. In some cases, law enforcement will go door-to-door and in other cases, community members need to look up information on their own. Misinformation and inconsistencies can cause unnecessary angst among community members. Therefore, states should consider the value of enacting uniformed legislation that is more active in its pursuit to provide consistent and detailed information about high-risk offenders and the offense(s) committed. This will better enable community members to more effectively form their own risk assessments and make better informed decisions.

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Rossegger, A., and A. Laubacher. "Results from a Validation Study Comparing Ideographic and Nomothetic Risk Assessment Instruments." European Psychiatry 24, S1 (January 2009): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0924-9338(09)70382-7.

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During the judicial process there are several decision points which require an assessment of recidivism risk: e.g. decisions regarding sentence severity or the form of detention (i.e. low or high security unit), level of treatment, or decisions regarding transfers to open correctional facilities or release. Psychiatric experts called on by the court are required to not only assess recidivism risk, but also state if risk may be lowered by forensic psychotherapy. In the case of treated sex and violent offenders treatment progress has to be evaluated by the therapist and by external experts, before an offender will be released from a correctional institution. When considering the variety of available risk assessment instruments the question arises, which instrument is most suited for decision making. For instance, the “value” of an instrument can be determined by its validity for a specific target population, and by its validity for a specific outcome: Is the instrument valid for a specific offender population or judicial or correctional setting? For what kind of outcome criterion has the instrument been developed and validated?

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Hanson, R. Karl. "Introduction to the Special Section on Dynamic Risk Assessment With Sex Offenders." Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment 14, no. 2 (April 2002): 99–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/107906320201400202.

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Studer, Lea H., and A. Scott Aylwin. "Male victims and post treatment risk assessment among adult male sex offenders." International Journal of Law and Psychiatry 31, no. 1 (January 2008): 60–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijlp.2007.11.009.

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Booth, Brad D., and Drew A. Kingston. "Sex Offender Risk Assessment and Management." Psychiatric Clinics of North America 39, no. 4 (December 2016): 675–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.psc.2016.07.011.

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Duwe, Grant. "Predicting First-Time Sexual Offending Among Prisoners Without a Prior Sex Offense History." Criminal Justice and Behavior 39, no. 11 (October 5, 2012): 1436–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0093854812453911.

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In an effort to reduce first-time sexual offending, this study focuses on the development of a risk assessment tool, the Minnesota Sexual Criminal Offending Risk Estimate (MnSCORE), designed for prisoners without any prior sexual offending history. Logistic regression modeling was used to develop the MnSCORE on a sample of 9,064 male offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2006. Bootstrap resampling was used to not only refine the selection of predictors but also internally validate the model. With an optimism-corrected area under the curve (AUC) of 0.763, the results showed the MnSCORE has moderately high predictive discrimination. Because the risk of first-time sexual offending was significantly lower for offenders who completed prison-based chemical dependency (CD) treatment, it is anticipated the MnSCORE may best be used as a trailer assessment to help better prioritize prisoners for CD treatment—both in prison and in the community following release.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Sex offenders risk assessment'

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