Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Services climatiques'
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Breton, Florentin. "European climate change : co-development of local climate services and clustering approaches." Electronic Thesis or Diss., université Paris-Saclay, 2021. http://www.theses.fr/2021UPASJ012.
Full textClimate change has various impacts on society, but future changes are uncertain and a wide gap remains between the scientific knowledge and societal action (mitigation, adaptation). The gap in climate adaptation was partly addressed by the recent growth of climate services, but their local usability is associated to many barriers. France is an example of lacking climate adaptation at territorial level, and this thesis focuses on the Gulf of Morbihan as a case study. My research aims first to identify the role of climate change in the territory, second to support the local development of adaptation planning, and third to explore future climate change through the angle of clustering approaches.To identify the local role of climate change, I analyze the literature (grey and academic) and engage in field interviews with various stakeholders. Particular features of the territory emerge: the coastal-inland contrast (economy, demography), the socioeconomic life organized seasonally, and the dependence and conflict between agriculture and tourism. The local role of climate change is complex, impacting emblematic activities (oyster farming, salt production), overlapping with existing issues (socioeconomic imbalance, land-use conflict), and affecting agriculture negatively (warmer and drier summers) but tourism positively (longer summer weather). The local experiences are generally consistent with scientific knowledge (ongoing changes, link to climate change), although some elements are scarce in local perceptions (heatwaves).To assist local adaptation, I participated to the experimentation of different foresight activities (scenario workshop, art-science exhibition, conference-debate) with local stakeholders, based on an assessment of climate services and on creative art-design tools (e.g. poker design cards). The main outcomes are two long-term scenarios, multiple short-term actions and several hinge points on which the scenarios depend. The two scenarios represent divergent visions of the territory: continued occupation of the coast despite increasing risks, or withdrawal from the coast and densification of urban areas inland. The scenarios depend on the issue development of urbanization and spatial planning, food and energy autonomy, and demographic balance. The theme of food and energy autonomy concentrates conflicting views between inhabitants, highlighting fears and desires about long-term territorial choices.My investigation of the territory highlighted several climatic themes (e.g. seasonality of weather conditions) that are linked to atmospheric circulation, but future circulation changes are highly uncertain. To investigate the future seasonality of atmospheric circulation, I classify year-round patterns of geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) from a reanalysis and several climate models. Despite their biases, climate models reproduce similar evolution of circulation seasonality as the reanalysis. During the last decades, winter conditions have decreased while summer conditions have increased, and these changes strengthen under future climate change. Yet circulation seasonality remains similar relatively to the increase in average Z500, and the same happens for surface temperatures associated to the circulation patterns. I additionally developed the perspective of a new approach to study the local evolution of weather seasonality, based on the classification of multiple variables (temperature, precipitation, windspeed).In addition to the effects from future climate change, the Gulf of Morbihan will probably welcome new populations, and an active collective strategy of adaptation is required. Several routes have been featured in my research to address the local needs in climate adaptation, including perspectives inspired from existing climate services in other countries. The findings from this thesis highlight the physical and social dimensions of climate change
Mballo, Souleymane. "Quantification et modélisation des services climatiques rendus par les arbres dans une rue canyon." Thesis, Rennes, Agrocampus Ouest, 2022. http://www.theses.fr/2022NSARD097.
Full textGlobal climate change and the extreme events it induces have become one of the major issues of this century. Understanding the microclimate in urban areas has received increasing attention from researchers in recent years, due to the overheating phenomena observed in cities and the population density that makes them a sensitive environment for heat waves. Several studies have shown that vegetation can reduce air temperature in cities, but these benefits depend on the built environment, and on many variables often not controlled in cities, such as water availability for plants. In this context, this thesis aims to analyze and quantify the climatic services provided in a canyon street by well-watered trees. It is based on a double approach combining experimentation and modeling. Field campaigns were carried out on a tree model at scale (1/5) installed in an outdoor environment on the site of the Institut Agro, in Angers, France. On the numerical approach, 2D simulations of the distributed climate in unsteady regime were performed using a CFD approach. Among other results, the work of this thesis showed that the canyon street creates overheating of up to 2.8 °C during the night, and up to 2.4 °C during the day, and that trees can reduce the air temperature in the street by 2.7 °C during the day, and improve human thermal comfort by reducing mid-day UTCI values by up to 8 °C. This work provides quantification elements that can help decision makers in their planning policies
Dumas, Guillaume. "Co-construction d'un réseau d'observation du climat urbain et de services climatiques associés : cas d'application sur la métropole toulousaine." Thesis, Toulouse 3, 2021. http://www.theses.fr/2021TOU30256.
Full textThis thesis provides a description of the development of climate services within Toulouse Métropole, France. They are articulated around a automated weather station network for micro-climatology studies, in particular the analysis of air temperature of the urban canopy heat island. The first one decomposes the climate services based on observation networks into distinct objects attached to separate and interacting disciplinary fields. The approach is based on a classification of the bibliography and the work of the World Meteorological Organization on climate services. This part also explains the volontee to mobilize methods relating to participation and in particular co-construction with the purpose to bring work flow and dynamic. While the first axis presents a theoretical, methodological framework for action-research work, the second axis is intended to be its practical application. In other words the transformation of the different components of a climate service based on a measurment network into a technical solution deployed and operational according to international norms and standards. A focus is brought on the choice of measurement sites with the help of thematic maps and a mobile measurement campaign. The third axis, finally, proposes an analysis of the heat island of the Toulouse territory from the data measured by the network. The heat island is approached from the classic angle of the urban/rural dichotomy and according to optimal weather conditions at its formation. In a second step, the approach of weather types is mobilized to deepen the analyses according to various types of weather conditions. Finally, a finer spatial analysis is carried out using Local Climate Zones (LCZ) with a focus on the activity zones (LCZ 8)
Fedele, Giacomo. "Stratégies de gestion des terres dans les réponses aux aléas climatiques en Indonésie." Thesis, Paris, Institut agronomique, vétérinaire et forestier de France, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017IAVF0021.
Full textEcosystems play an important role in strategies for facing climate change because they address both its causes and effects through the delivery of ecosystem services. Ecosystems act as safety nets for rural livelihoods and as buffers against damages by supplying provisioning services (e.g., food and timber) and regulating services (e.g., water regulation and erosion control). In addition, carbon sequestration by ecosystems contributes to mitigate climate change. Land management affects ecosystem services in diverse ways and, because of trade-offs, can enhance the supply of one ecosystem service of interest at the expense of others. For example, the conversion of forests to agriculture to increase food production may degrade water regulation. Although trade-offs are recognized, knowledge on how changes in land management affect ecosystem services and their beneficiaries is still limited. This research aims to increase our understanding of how land management changes impact the resilience of local communities to climate hazards and the provision of ecosystem services at regional and global level. We combined multi-disciplinary and participatory methods to analyze changes in the management of forests and trees in the responses of local communities to climate hazards. Across four rural communities affected by floods and droughts in tropical forest landscapes in Indonesia, we inventoried forests, surveyed households, discussed with focus groups, and analysed satellite images. To analyse how ecosystem services are affected by changes in land management, we developed a conceptual framework to account for the multiple human contributions in the delivery of ecosystem services. The findings showed how communities used ecosystems in their responses to climatic impacts and how changes in land management affected the supply of ecosystem services. In the study sites with least forests, communities had the highest needs for forest ecosystem services to help them adapt to drought. Between 5 and 45% of the households reported at least one coping strategy based on products from forests and trees, for example harvesting timber or collecting leaves, rubber, and wild vegetables. Several anticipatory strategies at the community level aimed to protect or restore forests to reduce the impacts of droughts and floods on soil and water. Communities were not passive beneficiaries of ecosystem services but actively contributed to their delivery in multiple ways. They managed land, mobilized human and human-made assets (e.g. skills, fertilizers), allocated benefits, and appreciated their contribution to well-being. Such actions determined who benefited from ecosystems and how. The human contributions in the delivery of ecosystem services depended on community rules (e.g. logging restrictions or taxes), assets (e.g. access to transportation or irrigation systems), values (e.g. perception of environmental degradation), and spatial factors (e.g., location of houses and crops in disaster prone areas). The land management strategies of local communities in response to climate hazards also affected the delivery of ecosystem services at regional and global scales, through changes in biodiversity, water regulation, and carbon sequestration. An improved understanding of human inputs and trade-offs in the delivery of ecosystem services can inform the design of sound ecosystem-based solutions for strengthening the resilience of local people to climate hazards while providing other global benefits for sustainable development
Hamdi, Salwa. "Vulnérabilité des services écosystémiques des sols tunisiens face aux changements climatiques régionaux : sensibilité de la respiration du sol à la température." Thesis, Montpellier 2, 2010. http://www.theses.fr/2010MON20137.
Full textTo better understand and assess the impact of climate change on the stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC) and carbon fluxes, and particularly heterotrophic soil respiration (SR), it is necessary to study the sensitivity of SR to temperature. Several studies have been achieved to improve the understanding of factors controlling the temperature dependence of SR and showed that the temperature sensitivity of SR decreases with temperature. These studies suggested that this decrease in temperature sensitivity of SR was related to change in substrate availability. Other studies presented microbial adaptation to warmed conditions. The temperature sensitivity of SR is especially critical in semi-arid regions, such as North West Tunisia, where the SOC stock is low. It is necessary to know the influence of substrate availability on the sensitivity of SR to temperature. In this study, soil samples were incubated for 28 days after a 28-day pre-incubation per iod. Pre-incubation and incubation were carried out at 20, 30, 40 and 50°C. To test the substrate availability effect on the temperature sensitivity of SR, glucose was added to soil at the beginning of the incubation period. Results showed that the highest pre-incubation temperature reduced the temperature sensitivity of SR during the subsequent incubation period. Glucose addition reduced the effect of high pre-incubation temperature on SR response. Thus, it appears that the observed decrease in SR sensitivity to temperature after one month pre-incubation at high temperature was due to a reduce in substrate availability and to a decrease in microbial biomass. Since the soil used in this study is a Calcari-Leptic Cambisol, a second experiment was also performed to determine the amount of CO2 from carbonates and the amount of CO2 from SOC. This study was carried out by measurements of the isotopic signatures (δ13C) of SOC, carbonates and emitted CO2. After 28 days of inc ubation, 23±9% of CO2 came from carbonates. This contribution was low compared to the high initial C-CaCO3 content in soil (4.3%), and it was independent to the incubation temperature. This study showed that reduce in the sensitivity of SR to high temperatures was probably due to a reduction in the substrate availability and to a decrease in microbial biomass
Lemoine, Anthony. "Indicateurs d’impacts des changements hydroclimatiques sur la gestion des réservoirs hydroélectriques." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Sorbonne université, 2021. http://www.theses.fr/2021SORUS107.
Full textThe hydropower sector is sensitive to climate. The current challenge is to develop indicators based on climate services to facilitate decision-making at the regional and local levels in the context of climate change adaptation. This thesis aims at identifying relevant indicators to characterize the impacts of climate change on the management of hydropower reservoirs. We have built a hydroclimatic modelling chain applied to four French catchments and reservoirs of major energy interest (Dordogne at Bort-les-Orgues, Ain at Vouglans, Durance at Serre-Ponçon and Verdon at Castillon). Our study illustrates a conceptual approach to reservoir management that allow us to develop an indicator to characterize the flexibility of water-energy systems in future climates. The results obtained show the conditions under which water volumes are available (or not) to optimize hydropower production. Finally, we adapted a stochastic dynamic programming model for optimal reservoir management to be used with hydrological projections. The analysis highlighted that, even in the optimized context, climate change might impact the management of large reservoirs, especially those with a predominantly multi-use purpose and current nival regime of hydrological inflows. Our approach provides a new methodological framework for climate impact studies on the water-energy sector and for the future development of climate services
Locatelli, Bruno. "Services écosystémiques et changement climatique." Habilitation à diriger des recherches, Université de Grenoble, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00931871.
Full textComte, Adrien. "Coral reefs ecosystem services under global environmental change : interdisciplinary approaches to guide science and action." Thesis, Brest, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018BRES0002/document.
Full textGlobal environmental change (GEC) in the ocean threatens marine ecosystems and the people who depend on them. A growing scientific effort is attempting to evaluate the impacts of environmental changes on ecosystems and ecosystem services and guide policy-making to respond to this global issue. Focusing on social-ecological systems of coral reefs, this thesis critically reviews the approaches put forward in the literature to understand gaps and to design new methodologies, assessments, and indicators to guide science and policy. Our findings show that a regionally targeted strategy of research should address complexity and provide more realistic projections about the impacts of GEC on coral reefs ecosystems and ecosystem services. We map global-scale indicators to understand where human dependence on coral reef ecosystems will be affected by globally-driven threats expected in a high-CO2 world. We then analyze how science is responding to the challenge posed by GEC on coral reefs and to identify gaps in research.Finally, we attempt to operationalize an overlooked component of vulnerability assessments, ecological adaptive capacity, to serve as a tool to help assess where local actions can be effective in the context of climate change. This manuscript contributes to theoretical and methodological advances to evaluate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to GEC. It develops interdisciplinary approaches for the study of social-ecological systems and ecosystem services, targeting coral reefs as a case study. Finally, it synthesizes critically the emergence of a scientific field on solutions to GEC for coral reef social-ecological systems
Rioust, Émilie. "Gouverner l’incertain : adaptation, résilience et évolutions dans la gestion du risque d’inondation urbaine : les services d’assainissement de la Seine-Saint-Denis et du Val-de-Marne face au changement climatique." Thesis, Paris Est, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012PEST1047/document.
Full textIn Seine-Saint-Denis and Val-de-Marne (France) several cities are exposed to pluvial flooding. This situation could worsen with climate change. This research develops a social and political perspective of pluvial flooding and climate change risks, in order to define the specificities of local systems which manage pluvial flooding and the contents of the adaptation policy. From the analysis of different policy instruments used to organize pluvial flooding management and climate change adaptation, as well as interviews with urban water management professionals, local officials elected, and citizens who are living in floodable areas, this study describes the local practices and their evolutions. The current evolutions in local practices correspond only partially to those promoted by the climate change policy. The evolutions of risks management practices also depend on resources and political strategies of local stake holders. This work highlights the political program of climate change adaptation and the evolutions in risk management at the local scale. It emphasizes the concepts of policy statements and strategic interactions as keys to analyse risks policies
Varin, Mathieu. "Cartographie de trois fonctions écologiques des milieux humides à l’aide d’indicateurs spatiaux dans un contexte d’aide à la décision." Mémoire, Université de Sherbrooke, 2013. http://savoirs.usherbrooke.ca/handle/11143/81.
Full textVarin, Mathieu. "Cartographie de trois fonctions ??cologiques des milieux humides ?? l???aide d???indicateurs spatiaux dans un contexte d???aide ?? la d??cision." Mémoire, Universit?? de Sherbrooke, 2013. http://savoirs.usherbrooke.ca/handle/11143/81.
Full textImbach, Pablo. "Impacts du changement climatique sur les services des écosystèmes en Méso-Amérique." Paris 6, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011PA066318.
Full textHe, Zhihai. "Évaluation des temps de protection de produits antigivrants dans différentes conditions climatiques /." Thèse, Chicoutimi : Université du Québec à Chicoutimi, 1995. http://theses.uqac.ca.
Full textGraux, Anne-Isabelle. "Modélisation des impacts du changement climatique sur les écosystèmes prairiaux. Voies d'adaptation des systèmes fourrragers." Phd thesis, Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand II, 2011. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00653360.
Full textMoulin, Thibault. "Modélisation mathématique de la dynamique des communautés herbacées des écosystèmes prairiaux." Thesis, Bourgogne Franche-Comté, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018UBFCD075/document.
Full textDynamic modelling of ecological systems is an essential method to understand, predict and control thedynamics of semi-natural ecosystems, which involves complex processes. The main objective of this PhDthesis is to develop a simulation model of the medium- and long-term dynamics of the herbaceous vegetationin permanent grasslands, taking into account both biodiversity and productivity. Grasslandecosystems are often hot spots of biodiversity, which contributes to the temporal stability of their services.On an agricultural perspective, this important biodiversity contributes to the forage quality, andbesides, it induces a higher ability of the vegetation cover to resist to different climatic scenarios (globalwarming, heat and drought waves).However, this key aspect of biodiversity is only poorly included in grassland models : often absent ofmodelling or included in a very simple form. Building on those considerations, this PhD work exposes thewriting of a process-based succession model, described by a system of Ordinary Differential Equationsthat simulates the aboveground vegetation dynamics of a temperate grassland. This model implementedthe main ecological factors involved in growth and competition processes of herbaceous species, and couldbe adjust to any level of diversity, by varying the number and the identity of species in the initial plantcommunity. This formalism of mechanistic models allows us to analyse relationships that link diversity,productivity and stability, in response to different climatic conditions and agricultural management.In mathematical grassland models, plant communities may be represented by a various number of statevariables, describing biomass compartments of some dominant species or plant functional types. The sizeof the initial species pool could have consequences on the outcome of the simulated ecosystem dynamicsin terms of grassland productivity, diversity, and stability. This choice could also influence the modelsensitivity to forcing parameters. To address these issues, we developed a method, based on sensitivityanalysis tools, to compare behaviour of alternative versions of the model that only differ by the identityand number of state variables describing the green biomass, here plant species. This method shows aninnovative aspect, by performing this model sensitivity analysis by using multivariate regression trees. Weassessed and compared the sensitivity of each instance of the model to key forcing parameters for climate,soil fertility, and defoliation disturbances. We established that the sensitivity to forcing parameters ofcommunity structure and species evenness differed markedly among alternative models, according tothe diversity level. We show a progressive shift from high importance of soil fertility (fertilisation level,mineralization rate) to high importance of defoliation (mowing frequency, grazing intensity) as the sizeof the species pool increased.These results highlight the need to take into account the role of species diversity to explain the behaviourof grassland models. Besides, to properly take into account those interactions in the grassland cover, theconsidered species pool size considered in the model needs to be high enough. Finally, we compare modelsimulations of the aboveground vegetation to measures from two experimental sites, the mowing grasslandof Oensingen, and the grazing grassland of Laqueuille. Results of these comparison are promising andhighlight the relevance of the choice and the representation of the different ecological processes includedin this mechanistic model.Thus, this PhD work offers a model, perfectly fitting with current needs on grassland modelling, whichcontribute to a better understanding of the herbaceous vegetation dynamics and interactions betweenproductivity, diversity and stability
Ibrango, Schadrac. "Nouvelle approche méthodologique pour l'analyse de la sécurité hydrologique des barrages en contexte sahélien soumis à une variabilité climatique /." Darmstadt : Institut für Wasserbau und Wasserwirtschaft, Technische Universität, 2006. http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&doc_number=014802215&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA.
Full textRioust, Emilie. "Gouverner l'incertain : adaptation, résilience et évolutions dans la gestion du risque d'inondation urbaine : les services d'assainissement de la Seine-Saint-Denis et du Val-de-Marne face au changement climatique." Phd thesis, Université Paris-Est, 2012. http://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/pastel-00793160.
Full textLeplay, Solenn. "Les instruments économiques pour la réduction de la déforestation tropicale : l’exemple du mécanisme REDD (Réduction des Emissions liées à la Déforestation et la Dégradation des Forêts)." Thesis, Montpellier, SupAgro, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011NSAM0003/document.
Full textCurbing deforestation in tropical countries is one of the main current challenges for international community in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Indeed, deforestation is the second leading cause of greenhouse gas emissions just behind industrial emissions. Since 2005, a new instrument to slow down CO2 emissions from tropical deforestation is under negotiations at the UNFCCC. This mechanism, called REDD+ (for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) is supported by a simple principle: it consists to reward developing countries for their efforts to avoid deforestation. However, the national and international implementations of REDD+ raise lot of methodological questions and meet several hurdles. The aims of the thesis are twofold. First, it proposes a description and an analysis of the REDD+ mechanism. Second, it is composed by three essays, which raise some questions about REDD+ design and implementation, in order to offer new perspectives on this mechanism. The first essay develops a game-theoretic bargaining model, simulating the on-going negotiation process over the REDD+ mechanism. It shows that the conditions under which developing countries are left to bargain over the allocation of the global forest fund may lead to an ineffective system of incentives. The second essay used a panel data analysis to reveal contrasted deforestation behaviors of tropical countries according to their relative endowment in forest cover. The aim of the third essay offered an illustration of REDD+ implementation, comparing the outcomes in terms of avoided deforestation and utility of two payments for environmental services designs for two types of governments. The model developed in this article is applied in the Indonesian context of deforestation, thanks to a database supplied by the NGO Conservation International
Lamour, Anais. "L’adoption de technologies climato-intelligentes par les petits producteurs au Costa Rica." Thesis, Montpellier, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018MONTD042/document.
Full textSmallholding agriculture lies at the crossroads of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Both mitigation efforts to limit the atmospheric accumulation of greehouse gases and adaptation measures that aim to at least maintain agricultural yields and incomes in the face of climate change will be instrumental in eradicating extreme poverty and hunger. This dissertation explores the adoption of climate-smart technologies by Costa Rican smallholders in the two main farming systems of the country, namely high-quality coffee plantations and extensive cattle-ranching farms. I present the resultsof three studies that use primary data to investigate opportunities and challenges for scaling-up agroforestry and silvopastoralism. Potential barriers that put strain on technology adoption by rural households in the developing world are outlined in the introduction. In the first Chapter, a representative coffee farm model of land allocation between production technologies is used to explore the tradeoff between adopting coffee agroforestry - a well-documented option for both mitigation and adaptation - and dealing with market risks. Based on a Choice Experiment conducted with 207 farmers, Chapter 2 assesses the willingness of coffee farmers to adopt various agroforestry-based strategies, under various types of support. Chapter 3 evaluates the effectiveness of a national cost-share program promoting the adoption of technological packages consistent with silvopastoralism-based intensification among cattle ranchers. It provides estimates of the impact of participating into the program on both the technology adoption and the land use patterns. Overall, the results of these studies suggest that the adoption of agroforestry and silvopastoralism is costly and can be slowed down due to market frictions. Public interventions can in turn be effective in encouraging smallholders to adopt these technologies through economic incentives. The choice of the technology to be promoted is found to be crucial for the cost-efficiency of such interventions, stressing the relevance of the research conducted
Desrousseaux, Maylis. "La protection juridique de la qualité des sols." Thesis, Lyon 3, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014LYO30080.
Full textThe soil is the upper layer of the earth’s crust, the plan surface that stretches from one horizon to the other. It is the crop lands, the scattering sand, the ground we trample on, the link between men and their territory: garden, region, state. The soils, those fragile and multifunctional ecosystems, provide many ecological services and guarantee the environmental quality. The law contains several conceptions of the notion of soils quality. But, far from constituting a protection status, this integration ignores, a priori, their environmental qualities. However, the soils are a finite resource and their non-sustainable use leads to their degradation, often irreversible, and to their growing scarcity. Progressively, the law added elements of soils multifonctionality, integrating sustainable practices. This utilitarian approach of soil quality proves to be selective and remains focused on the preservation of a small part of all the ecological services: the ones that men directly need, like food production and ignores the indirect ones like carbon storage. Nevertheless, this approach is complemented by the raising of an objectivist conception of quality, which reveals the propensity of the law to take into account the intrinsic value of soils