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Author: Grafiati
Published: 10 December 2022
Last updated: 28 January 2023

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1

Jackson, Brian A. Marrying prevention and resiliency: Balancing approaches to an uncertain terrorist threat. Santa Monica: Rand, 2008.

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Jackson, Brian A. Marrying prevention and resiliency: Balancing approaches to an uncertain terrorist threat. Santa Monica: Rand, 2008.

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Jackson, Brian A. Marrying prevention and resiliency: Balancing approaches to an uncertain terrorist threat. Santa Monica: Rand, 2008.

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4

Jackson, Brian A. Marrying prevention and resiliency: Balancing approaches to an uncertain terrorist threat. Santa Monica: Rand, 2008.

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5

Center for Strategic and International Studies (Washington, D.C.), ed. Confronting an uncertain threat: The future of Al Qaeda and associated movements. Washington, D.C: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2011.

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6

1946-, Bush George W., and United States. Congress. House. Committee on International Relations., eds. Report on the status of United States Efforts in Lebanon: Communication from the President of the United States transmitting a letter notifying Congress, consistent with the War Powers Resolution, that on July 14, 2006, due to the uncertain security situation and the possible threat to American citizens and the American Embassy in Lebanon, Department of Defense assistance has been requested to assist in the departure of American citizens in Lebanon. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2006.

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7

Clinton), United States President (1993-2001 :. Status on Sierra Leone: Communication from the President of the United States transmitting a letter notifying Congress that on May 29 and May 30, due to the uncertain security situation and the possible threat to American citizens and the American embassy in Sierra Leone, approximately 200 U.S. military personnel, including an 11-member special forces detachment, were positioned in Freetown to prepare for the evacuation of certain U.S. government employees and private U.S. citizens. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 1997.

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8

M, Adelman Howard, Sobieski Jaroslaw, and Langley Research Center, eds. Optimization for minimum sensitivity to uncertain parameters. Hampton, Va: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Langley Research Center, 1994.

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9

Kang, Sonia K. Stigma sensitivity and stereotype threat in older adults. 2006.

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10

Uncertain Allies: Nixon, Kissinger, and the Threat of a United Europe. Yale University Press, 2022.

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11

1945-, Williams John Allen, ed. Catastrophic terrorism: Imminent threat, uncertain response : Cantigny conference report, June 22-23, 2000. Chicago, Ill: Robert R. McCormick Tribune Foundation, 2001.

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12

Catastrophic terrorism: Imminent threat, uncertain response : Cantigny conference report, June 22-23, 2000. Chicago, Ill: Robert R. McCormick Tribune Foundation, 2001.

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13

Catastrophic terrorism: Imminent threat, uncertain response : Cantigny conference report, June 22-23, 2000. Chicago, Ill: Robert R. McCormick Tribune Foundation, 2001.

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14

Davis, Paul, Walter Perry, John Hollywood, and David Manheim. Uncertainty-Sensitive Heterogeneous Information Fusion: Assessing Threat with Soft, Uncertain, and Conflicting Evidence. RAND Corporation, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.7249/rr1200.

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15

Walter. Uncertainty-Sensitive Heterogeneous Information Fusion: Assessing Threat with Soft, Uncertain, and Conflicting Evidence. Ran, 2016.

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16

Oakley, Jeremy E., and Helen E. Clough. Sensitivity analysis in microbial risk assessment: Vero-cytotoxigenic E. coli O157 in farm-pasteurized milk. Edited by Anthony O'Hagan and Mike West. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198703174.013.4.

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This article discusses the use of Bayesian methods for performing uncertainty analysis in complex computer models, focusing on a mechanistic model that has been applied in a risk assessment of contamination of farm-pasteurized milk with the bacterium Vero-cytotoxigenic E. coli (VTEC) O157. The VTEC model has uncertain input parameters, which makes outputs from the model used to inform the risk assessment also uncertain. The question that arises is how to reduce output uncertainty in the most efficient manner possible. The article first provides an overview of microbial risk assessment before analysing the frequency and consequences of food-borne outbreaks associated with VTEC O157. It then introduces the risk assessment model, along with model input distributions. Finally, it presents the results of a variance-based sensitivity analysis that was conducted to identify the most important uncertain model inputs.
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17

Lubell, Noam. The Problem of Imminence in an Uncertain World. Edited by Marc Weller. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/law/9780199673049.003.0032.

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This chapter deals with the concept of imminence within the context of anticipatory self-defence under international law. It examines the meaning of imminence, its interpretation, what it might justify and/or exclude, and whether it can be upheld as a criterion to face modern challenges. It outlines the requirement of imminence in relation to the debatable right to anticipatory self-defence, paying particular attention to the development of state practice and the opinions of commentators. It considers the specific context of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction, and examines the reasons that these are sometimes seen as necessitating a new conception of imminence. The chapter provides an analysis of what new approaches might mean, and whether they can be contained within an understanding of imminence. In so doing, the chapter analyses the notion of certainty, the need for evidence, and the effect of the scale of threat on the decision-making process.
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18

Hatlebrekke, Kjetil Anders. The Problem of Secret Intelligence. Edinburgh University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3366/edinburgh/9780748691838.001.0001.

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Why is intelligence so hard to define? Why is there no systematic or adequate theory of intelligence? This book argues that classic intelligence production has been premised on an ill-founded belief in an automatic inference between history and the future, and that the lack of a working theory has exacerbated this problem. The book uses classic cases of intelligence failure to demonstrate how this problem creates a restricted language in intelligence communities that undermines threat perception. From these cases it concludes that intelligence needs to be re-thought, and argues that good intelligence is the art of threat perception beyond the limits of our habitual thinking and shared experience. This book therefore argues that intelligence can never be truths, only uncertain theories about the future. Qualified intelligence work is, accordingly, ideas that lead to theories about the future. These theories should always seek to explain a comprehension of the wholeness of threats. The hypothesis derived from these theories must thereafter be tested, as tests that make the theories less uncertain. This implies that intelligence never can be anything but uncertain theories about the future that are made less uncertain through scientific, critical tests of hypotheses derived from these theories. High quality intelligence institutions conduct these tests in what is known as the intelligence cycle. This cycle works well if it mirrors good thinking.
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19

Essential facts about Covid-19: the disease, the responses, and an uncertain future. For South African learners, teachers, and the general public. Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf), 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.17159/assaf.2021/0072.

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The first cases of a new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) were identified toward the end of 2019 in Wuhan, China. Over the following months, this virus spread to everywhere in the world. By now no country has been spared the devastation from the loss of lives from the disease (Covid-19) and the economic and social impacts of responses to mitigate the impact of the virus. Our lives in South Africa have been turned upside down as we try to make the best of this bad situation. The 2020 school year was disrupted with closure and then reopening in a phased approach, as stipulated by the Department of Education. This booklet is a collective effort by academics who are Members of the Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf) and other invited scholars to help you appreciate some of the basic scientific facts that you need to know in order to understand the present crisis and the various options available to respond to it. We emphasise that the threat of infectious diseases is not an entirely new phenomenon that has sprung onto the stage out of nowhere. Infectious diseases and pandemics have been with us for centuries, in fact much longer. Scientists have warned us for years of the need to prepare for the next pandemic. Progress in medicine in the course of the 20th century has been formidable. Childhood mortality has greatly decreased almost everywhere in the world, thanks mainly, but not only, to the many vaccines that have been developed. Effective drugs now exist for many deadly diseases for which there were once no cures. For many of us, this progress has generated a false sense of security. It has caused us to believe that the likes of the 1918 ‘Spanish flu’ pandemic, which caused some 50 million deaths around the world within a span of a few months, could not be repeated in some form in today’s modern world. The Covid-19 pandemic reminds us that as new cures for old diseases are discovered, new diseases come along for which we are unprepared. And every hundred or so years one of these diseases wreaks havoc on the world and interferes severely with our usual ways of going about our lives. Today’s world has become increasingly interconnected and interdependent, through trade, migrations, and rapid air travel. This globalisation makes it easier for epidemics to spread, somewhat offsetting the power of modern medicine. In this booklet we have endeavoured to provide an historical perspective, and to enrich your knowledge with some of the basics of medicine, viruses, and epidemiology. Beyond the immediate Covid-19 crisis, South Africa faces a number of other major health challenges: highly unequal access to quality healthcare, widespread tuberculosis, HIV infection causing AIDS, a high prevalence of mental illness, and a low life expectancy, compared to what is possible with today’s medicine. It is essential that you, as young people, also learn about the nature of these new challenges, so that you may contribute to finding future solutions.
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20

Brandon, Anna R., Geetha Shivakumar, Elizabeth H. Anderson, and Anne Drapkin Lyerly. Specific Populations. Edited by John Z. Sadler, K. W. M. Fulford, and Cornelius Werendly van Staden. Oxford University Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198732365.013.16.

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It is estimated that more than 500,000 women annually experience a mental illness during pregnancy. Although approximately a third of these women will be prescribed medication, the majority receives no treatment, partly because ethical challenges to including pregnant women in research protocols have impeded studies necessary to establish maternal and fetal effects of medication, appropriate dosing, and the relative risks of undertreated mental illness. Because mental illness is a frequent complication of pregnancy (particularly anxiety and depression), clinicians will be called upon to ethically navigate uncertain treatment recommendations with sensitivity to patient values. The following discussion reviews the history of current guidelines to research with pregnant women, common clinical presentations of women experiencing mental illness in the perinatal context, and relevant ethical frameworks to inform patient care.
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21

Ball, Derek. Semantics as Measurement. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198739548.003.0014.

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This chapter defends a view of semantics on which developing a semantic theory closely resembles developing a scale of measurement. The view helps explain how semantics has made so much progress despite deep disagreements about the target of semantic theorizing (e.g., between those who maintain that semantics is characterizing something psychological, and those who maintain that it is characterizing something social), how appeals to set-theoretic abstracta make sense despite Benacerraf-style worries and despite the fact that set-theoretic entities fit badly with standard (e.g., causal) metasemantic views, and why the threat of radical context sensitivity does not undermine the semantic project.
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22

Gattringer, Thomas, Christian Enzinger, Stefan Ropele, and Franz Fazekas. Brain imaging (CT/MRI). Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780198722366.003.0007.

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In the acute phase of a suspected stroke, timely brain imaging with rapid and qualified interpretation is a crucial diagnostic step to inform patient management. While brain computed tomography is usually sufficient to indicate thrombolysis within the approved time window (by rapidly excluding intracranial haemorrhage), it often fails to show the actual site and extent of infarction as well as other pathologies, which may mimic a stroke. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has a much higher sensitivity and specificity for ischaemic vascular brain changes and thus allows direct demonstration of the area(s) of acute ischaemic damage. This helps in the diagnosis of clinically uncertain cases, may give aetiological clues, and can also provide pathophysiologic insights into stroke evolution with respective consequences for patient treatment. The capability to rule out many other disorders that may mimic stroke is also an important asset of MRI. All these advantages make MRI the preferred tool in the workup of young individuals with suspected stroke. However, this needs ready availability and adequately tailored and short imaging protocols in order not to delay treatment.
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23

Steglich-Petersen, Asbjørn. Fictional Persuasion and the Nature of Belief. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198805403.003.0010.

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Psychological studies on fictional persuasion demonstrate that being engaged with fiction systematically affects our beliefs about the real world, in ways that seem insensitive to the truth. This threatens to undermine the widely accepted view that beliefs are essentially regulated in ways that tend to ensure their truth, and may tempt various non-doxastic interpretations of the belief-seeming attitudes we form as a result of engaging with fiction. This chapter evaluates this threat, and argues that it is benign. Even if the relevant attitudes are best seen as genuine beliefs, their lack of appropriate sensitivity to the truth does not undermine the essential tie between belief and truth. To this end, this chapter considers what is taken to be the three most plausible models of the cognitive mechanisms underlying fictional persuasion, and argues that on none of these models does fictional persuasion undermine the essential truth-tie.
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24

Batson, C. Daniel. Some Bad. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190651374.003.0014.

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Despite its virtues, empathy-induced altruism can at times harm those in need, other people, and the altruistically motivated person. Specifically, it can hurt those in need when acted on without wisdom and sensitivity or when a cool head is required. It can produce paternalism. It is less likely to be evoked by nonpersonalized, abstract, chronic needs. It can be a source of immoral action, leading us to show partiality toward those for whom we feel empathic concern even when we know that to do so is neither fair nor best for all. Indeed, when our behavior is public, empathy-induced altruism can pose a more serious threat to the common good than does self-interest. Finally, it can at times jeopardize our mental and physical health—even our life. Any attempt to call on empathy-induced altruism to build a more humane society needs to take these problems into account lest we do more harm than good.
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25

Robinson-Dunn, Diane. ‘Fairer to the Ladies’ and of Benefit to the Nation. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190688349.003.0005.

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By examining his writings, speeches, poetry and actions, as well as those of his contemporaries involved with the Liverpool Muslim community, this chapter explores Abdullah Quilliam’s relationship with gender roles and constructs. It considers his creative self-fashioning, for which he drew from both "Eastern" and "Western" influences in order to present a version of British Muslim masculinity characterized by sensitivity, chivalry, reverence for motherhood, and the pursuit of social justice. Quilliam believed that the limited polygamy, or more accurately polygyny, as sanctioned by the Qur’an, which he, in fact, practiced, not only benefited individuals and family life, but also strengthened nation and empire by encouraging population growth and thereby preventing degeneration and decay. In addition, Quilliam’s belief in the benefits of racial and cultural “miscegenation” became an issue of no small importance during a time when his critics and even officials in the British Home and Foreign Offices expressed concern that his willingness to perform “mixed marriages” posed a threat to national security.
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26

Schneier, Franklin R., Hilary B. Vidair, Leslie R. Vogel, and Philip R. Muskin. Anxiety, Obsessive-Compulsive, and Stress Disorders. Oxford University Press, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199326075.003.0006.

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Patients with generalized anxiety disorder experience anxiety related to multiple areas, such as work, finances, and illness. Discrete, unexpected panic attacks and anticipatory anxiety characterize patients with panic disorder. Patients with social anxiety disorder have fear of embarrassment in social situations. Patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder are preoccupied with and distressed by inappropriate thoughts, urges, and images. The four cardinal features of posttraumatic stress disorder are intrusive reexperiencing of the initial trauma, avoidance, persistent negative alterations in cognitions and mood, and alterations in arousal and activity. One element common to patients suffering from most of the anxiety disorders is an elevated sensitivity to threat, which appears to involve brain systems identified to mediate “fear” responses, including the amygdala. The selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (SNRIs) are the first-line pharmacotherapy treatment for obsessive-compulsive disorder and most of the anxiety and stress disorders. Cognitive-behavioral therapy for anxiety, obsessive-compulsive, and stress disorders is an empirically validated time-limited treatment.
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27

Lekander, Mats. The Inflamed Feeling. Oxford University Press, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198863441.001.0001.

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What do wanting to stay in bed, feeling sick, and being afraid of strangers have in common? The answer is that these feelings can reflect a drive which evolved in our ancestors to combat the threat of infection to survival. Listening to the body’s message to the brain that you are sick allows you to save energy that can be used for recuperation and recovery. Urges of staying still, noticing pain, feeling sorry for yourself, and focusing inward are thus bodily messages that benefit the immune defense. Similarly, superficial signs of ill health in others, or even the prejudicial idea of a person with a foreign bacterial culture, can cause anxiety and avoidance as part of the defense strategy. Being at a life or death juncture, your brain and your immune system join forces to preserve or regain health. Having a too high or too low sensitivity to inner or outer disease signals is therefore connected to a risk for mental as well as somatic disorders. In this book, Mats Lekander explains the science behind perceived health, using an arsenal of Barbie dolls, visual illusions, personal experiences, placebo, hypochondriacs, and historical anecdotes against a backdrop of the latest neuroscience and psychoneuroimmunology (the science of the brain, behavior, and immunity). He describes when he poisoned himself at work and enjoyed it, and why white blood cells and inflammation are key players when our brains try to guess what is going on in our inner worlds.
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28

Frantz, Erica. Autocracy. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.3.

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Dictatorships have dominated global politics for hundreds of years, from the pharaohs of Egypt to the absolute monarchs of Europe. Though democracy has since spread to much of the world, about a third of today’s countries are still ruled by dictatorship. And yet, compared to democracies, we know very little about how dictatorships work, who the key political actors are, and where decision-making powers lie. Political processes are opaque, and information is often intentionally distorted. Political survival depends not on maintaining the favor of voters, as in democracies, but on securing the backing of a considerably smaller coalition of supporters. The absence of a reliable third party to enforce compromises among key players means that power-sharing deals lack credibility and the threat of forced ouster is omnipresent. Uncertainty pervades authoritarian politics.Modern autocrats respond to this uncertain environment in a variety of ways. They use political parties, legislatures, elections, and other institutions typically associated with democracies to lessen their risk of overthrow. Despite the façade of democracy, these institutions are key components of most autocrats’ survival strategies; those that incorporate them last longer in power than those that do not. The specific ways in which autocratic institutions are used and the extent to which they can constrain leadership choices to prevent consolidation of power into the hands of a single individual, however, vary enormously from one dictatorship to the next. Better understanding the conditions that push autocracies down a path of collegial versus strongman rule remains a critical task, particularly given that the latter is associated with more war, economic mismanagement, and resistance to democratization.
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29

Räisänen, Jouni. Future Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region and Environmental Impacts. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.634.

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The warming of the global climate is expected to continue in the 21st century, although the magnitude of change depends on future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the sensitivity of climate to them. The regional characteristics and impacts of future climate change in the Baltic Sea countries have been explored since at least the 1990s. Later research has supported many findings from the early studies, but advances in understanding and improved modeling tools have made the picture gradually more comprehensive and more detailed. Nevertheless, many uncertainties still remain.In the Baltic Sea region, warming is likely to exceed its global average, particularly in winter and in the northern parts of the area. The warming will be accompanied by a general increase in winter precipitation, but in summer, precipitation may either increase or decrease, with a larger chance of drying in the southern than in the northern parts of the region. Despite the increase in winter precipitation, the amount of snow is generally expected to decrease, as a smaller fraction of the precipitation falls as snow and midwinter snowmelt episodes become more common. Changes in windiness are very uncertain, although most projections suggest a slight increase in average wind speed over the Baltic Sea. Climatic extremes are also projected to change, but some of the changes will differ from the corresponding change in mean climate. For example, the lowest winter temperatures are expected to warm even more than the winter mean temperature, and short-term summer precipitation extremes are likely to become more severe, even in the areas where the mean summer precipitation does not increase.The projected atmospheric changes will be accompanied by an increase in Baltic Sea water temperature, reduced ice cover, and, according to most studies, reduced salinity due to increased precipitation and river runoff. The seasonal cycle of runoff will be modified by changes in precipitation and earlier snowmelt. Global-scale sea level rise also will affect the Baltic Sea, but will be counteracted by glacial isostatic adjustment. According to most projections, in the northern parts of the Baltic Sea, the latter will still dominate, leading to a continued, although decelerated, decrease in relative sea level. The changes in the physical environment and climate will have a number of environmental impacts on, for example, atmospheric chemistry, freshwater and marine biogeochemistry, ecosystems, and coastal erosion. However, future environmental change in the region will be affected by several interrelated factors. Climate change is only one of them, and in many cases its effects may be exceeded by other anthropogenic changes.
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