Relevant bibliographies by topics / Sensitivity to Uncertain Threat

Academic literature on the topic 'Sensitivity to Uncertain Threat'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 10 December 2022
Last updated: 28 January 2023

Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles

Select a source type:

Contents

Consult the lists of relevant articles, books, theses, conference reports, and other scholarly sources on the topic 'Sensitivity to Uncertain Threat.'

Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.

You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.

Journal articles on the topic "Sensitivity to Uncertain Threat"

1

Phan, Liem G., Charles A. Manzler, and Stephanie M. Gorka. "Neural and self-report indices of cognitive reappraisal moderate the association between sensitivity to uncertain threat and problem alcohol use." International Journal of Psychophysiology 175 (May 2022): 54–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpsycho.2022.03.002.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
2

Lan, Qin-ying, Ke Xia, Xiao-feng Wang, Jun-wei Liu, Jin Zhao, and Yun-hong Tan. "Seed storage behaviour of 101 woody species from the tropical rainforest of southern China: a test of the seed-coat ratio–seed mass (SCR–SM) model for determination of desiccation sensitivity." Australian Journal of Botany 62, no. 4 (2014): 305. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/bt14037.

Full text
Abstract:
The Xishuangbanna tropical rainforest in Yunnan Province is the greatest biodiversity hotspot in China. However, the biodiversity of this region is under threat, making seed conservation through seed and/or germplasm banking particularly urgent and crucial. Seed desiccation sensitivity limits the possibility of seed banking of 47% of tropical rainforest species. Thus, knowing if a species has desiccation-sensitive seeds is an important first step in seed banking; however, often resources are limited, making it difficult to determine storage behaviour for all the species in a region. Prediction of seed sensitivity using the SCR–SM model based on seed-coat ratio (SCR) and seed dry mass (SM) might be an alternative for determining desiccation sensitivity of seeds of each species. Here, seed-desiccation sensitivity of 101 woody species from the Xishuangbanna tropical forest were analysed using this model, and physiological determinations were made for a total of 25 species. Seed storage behaviour for 59 species was used for model validation, and storage behaviour of 88% of these species was successfully predicted. Seed storage behaviour of 83% of the 59 species was successfully predicted using the 1000-seed weigth–moisture content (TSW–MC) criteria, which include seeds with 1000-seed weight >500 g and seed moisture content at shedding of 30 –70%. The two predictive methods were subsequently used to predict seed desiccation sensitivity for another 42 species from Xishuangbanna whose storage behaviour was uncertain. Our results indicated that ~50% of the species in Xishuangbanna are likely to have desiccation-sensitive seeds.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
3

Savchenko, Olena. "THE MODEL OF PERSONAL PSYCHOLOGICAL SECURITY AS A COMPLEX PHENOMENON." PSYCHOLOGICAL JOURNAL 6, no. 12 (December 30, 2020): 66–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.31108/1.2020.6.12.7.

Full text
Abstract:
Increasing number and frequency of threatening factors that occur in the world raises the issue of the necessity to study psychological security as a complex phenomenon that combines a number of components, determines human behavior in uncertain and threatening situations. The article analyzes the main approaches to the study of personality`s psychological security as a separate psychological phenomenon: 1) the study of the behavior of the safe type of personality; 2) the analysis of security as a characteristic of the environment where an individual grows and interacts; 3) axiological approach broadcasting of the safe living values; 4) a comprehensive psychological approach. The authors propose to consider the personality`s psychological security as a complex personal formation that combines motivational, cognitive, emotional and behavioral components that ensure the resilience of an individual to environmental factors, the optimal level of their functioning and the integrated type of interaction with the world, other individuals, themselves. The purpose of the study is to develop a model of personality`s psychological security, to analyze its internal structure. The methodological basis of the study is a systematic approach. The following diagnostic methods were used in the study: the method "Diagnosis of the degree of basis needs satisfaction" (V. Skvorczov, modification by I. Akindinova), "Scale of basic beliefs" (R. Janoff-Bulman, adaptation by O. Kravczova), test-questionnaire "Sensitivity to threats" (V. Maralov, E. Maly`sheva, O. Nifontova, E. Perchenko, I. Tabunov), test-questionnaire "Identifying of the ways of responding to situations of danger" (V. Maralov, E. Maly`sheva, O. Smirnova, E. Perchenko, I. Tabunov). The study has been conducted on the sample of 43 university students in Kyiv (Ukraine). A proposed conceptual model of personality`s psychological security combines 4 components: 1) the need for security (motivational component); 2) beliefs about the security of the world and one's own ability to interact constructively with others (cognitive component); 3) experiencing one's own security (emotional component); 4) readiness to activate self-defense tactics in the threatening situation (behavioral component). The use of factor analysis (Principal components method, Varimax normalized rotation procedure) has allowed to identify 3 independent factors that explain 68.6% of the total variance. The following components have been identified: motivational-cognitive, emotional-behavioral (constructive), destructive behavioral component that confirms the importance of behavioral aspects of psychological security, which reflect the means of human interaction with the world and other people in situations of real or imagined threat. The results of the application of correlation analysis have revealed the independence of the three components of personality`s psychological security. A general indicator that reflects the development level of psychological security as a complex phenomenon has been introduced. Students who demonstrate a high level of psychological security have the following characteristics: adequate satisfaction of the need for security, positive beliefs about the goodness of the world and the reliability of others, high sensitivity to threats, they often use adequate or uncertain means of responding to threats, try to avoid the anxious and ignoring behavioral strategies in threatening situations.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
4

Sosna, Matthew M. G., Colin R. Twomey, Joseph Bak-Coleman, Winnie Poel, Bryan C. Daniels, Pawel Romanczuk, and Iain D. Couzin. "Individual and collective encoding of risk in animal groups." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116, no. 41 (September 23, 2019): 20556–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1905585116.

Full text
Abstract:
The need to make fast decisions under risky and uncertain conditions is a widespread problem in the natural world. While there has been extensive work on how individual organisms dynamically modify their behavior to respond appropriately to changing environmental conditions (and how this is encoded in the brain), we know remarkably little about the corresponding aspects of collective information processing in animal groups. For example, many groups appear to show increased “sensitivity” in the presence of perceived threat, as evidenced by the increased frequency and magnitude of repeated cascading waves of behavioral change often observed in fish schools and bird flocks under such circumstances. How such context-dependent changes in collective sensitivity are mediated, however, is unknown. Here we address this question using schooling fish as a model system, focusing on 2 nonexclusive hypotheses: 1) that changes in collective responsiveness result from changes in how individuals respond to social cues (i.e., changes to the properties of the “nodes” in the social network), and 2) that they result from changes made to the structural connectivity of the network itself (i.e., the computation is encoded in the “edges” of the network). We find that despite the fact that perceived risk increases the probability for individuals to initiate an alarm, the context-dependent change in collective sensitivity predominantly results not from changes in how individuals respond to social cues, but instead from how individuals modify the spatial structure, and correspondingly the topology of the network of interactions, within the group. Risk is thus encoded as a collective property, emphasizing that in group-living species individual fitness can depend strongly on coupling between scales of behavioral organization.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
5

Bardsley, Tim, Andrew Wood, Mike Hobbins, Tracie Kirkham, Laura Briefer, Jeff Niermeyer, and Steven Burian. "Planning for an Uncertain Future: Climate Change Sensitivity Assessment toward Adaptation Planning for Public Water Supply." Earth Interactions 17, no. 23 (October 1, 2013): 1–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2012ei000501.1.

Full text
Abstract:
Abstract Assessing climate change risk to municipal water supplies is often conducted by hydrologic modeling specific to local watersheds and infrastructure to ensure that outputs are compatible with existing planning frameworks and processes. This study leverages the modeling capacity of an operational National Weather Service River Forecast Center to explore the potential impacts of future climate-driven hydrologic changes on factors important to planning at the Salt Lake City Department of Public Utilities (SLC). Hydrologic modeling results for the study area align with prior research in showing that temperature changes alone will lead to earlier runoff and reduced runoff volume. The sensitivity of average annual flow to temperature varies significantly between watersheds, averaging −3.8% °F−1 and ranging from −1.8% to −6.5% flow reduction per degree Fahrenheit of warming. The largest flow reductions occur during the high water demand months of May–September. Precipitation drives hydrologic response more strongly than temperature, with each 1% precipitation change producing an average 1.9% runoff change of the same sign. This paper explores the consequences of climate change for the reliability of SLC's water supply system using scenarios that include hydrologic changes in average conditions, severe drought scenarios, and future water demand test cases. The most significant water management impacts will be earlier and reduced runoff volume, which threaten the system's ability to maintain adequate streamflow and storage to meet late-summer water demands.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
6

Sjölander, Arvid, and Ola Hössjer. "Novel bounds for causal effects based on sensitivity parameters on the risk difference scale." Journal of Causal Inference 9, no. 1 (January 1, 2021): 190–210. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jci-2021-0024.

Full text
Abstract:
Abstract Unmeasured confounding is an important threat to the validity of observational studies. A common way to deal with unmeasured confounding is to compute bounds for the causal effect of interest, that is, a range of values that is guaranteed to include the true effect, given the observed data. Recently, bounds have been proposed that are based on sensitivity parameters, which quantify the degree of unmeasured confounding on the risk ratio scale. These bounds can be used to compute an E-value, that is, the degree of confounding required to explain away an observed association, on the risk ratio scale. We complement and extend this previous work by deriving analogous bounds, based on sensitivity parameters on the risk difference scale. We show that our bounds can also be used to compute an E-value, on the risk difference scale. We compare our novel bounds with previous bounds through a real data example and a simulation study.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
7

Chisolm, Rachel E., and Daene C. McKinney. "Dynamics of avalanche-generated impulse waves: three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations and sensitivity analysis." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 18, no. 5 (May 17, 2018): 1373–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1373-2018.

Full text
Abstract:
Abstract. This paper studies the lake dynamics for avalanche-triggered glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the Cordillera Blanca mountain range in Ancash, Peru. As new glacial lakes emerge and existing lakes continue to grow, they pose an increasing threat of GLOFs that can be catastrophic to the communities living downstream. In this work, the dynamics of displacement waves produced from avalanches are studied through three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of Lake Palcacocha, Peru, with an emphasis on the sensitivity of the lake model to input parameters and boundary conditions. This type of avalanche-generated wave is an important link in the GLOF process chain because there is a high potential for overtopping and erosion of the lake-damming moraine. The lake model was evaluated for sensitivity to turbulence model and grid resolution, and the uncertainty due to these model parameters is significantly less than that due to avalanche boundary condition characteristics. Wave generation from avalanche impact was simulated using two different boundary condition methods. Representation of an avalanche as water flowing into the lake generally resulted in higher peak flows and overtopping volumes than simulating the avalanche impact as mass–momentum inflow at the lake boundary. Three different scenarios of avalanche size were simulated for the current lake conditions, and all resulted in significant overtopping of the lake-damming moraine. Although the lake model introduces significant uncertainty, the avalanche portion of the GLOF process chain is likely to be the greatest source of uncertainty. To aid in evaluation of hazard mitigation alternatives, two scenarios of lake lowering were investigated. While large avalanches produced significant overtopping waves for all lake-lowering scenarios, simulations suggest that it may be possible to contain waves generated from smaller avalanches if the surface of the lake is lowered.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
8

Coe, Michael T., Toby R. Marthews, Marcos Heil Costa, David R. Galbraith, Nora L. Greenglass, Hewlley M. A. Imbuzeiro, Naomi M. Levine, et al. "Deforestation and climate feedbacks threaten the ecological integrity of south–southeastern Amazonia." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 368, no. 1619 (June 5, 2013): 20120155. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0155.

Full text
Abstract:
A mosaic of protected areas, including indigenous lands, sustainable-use production forests and reserves and strictly protected forests is the cornerstone of conservation in the Amazon, with almost 50 per cent of the region now protected. However, recent research indicates that isolation from direct deforestation or degradation may not be sufficient to maintain the ecological integrity of Amazon forests over the next several decades. Large-scale changes in fire and drought regimes occurring as a result of deforestation and greenhouse gas increases may result in forest degradation, regardless of protected status. How severe or widespread these feedbacks will be is uncertain, but the arc of deforestation in south–southeastern Amazonia appears to be particularly vulnerable owing to high current deforestation rates and ecological sensitivity to climate change. Maintaining forest ecosystem integrity may require significant strengthening of forest conservation on private property, which can in part be accomplished by leveraging existing policy mechanisms.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
9

Lai, Christopher K. C., Zigui Chen, Grace Lui, Lowell Ling, Timothy Li, Martin C. S. Wong, Rita W. Y. Ng, et al. "Prospective Study Comparing Deep Throat Saliva With Other Respiratory Tract Specimens in the Diagnosis of Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019." Journal of Infectious Diseases 222, no. 10 (August 1, 2020): 1612–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiaa487.

Full text
Abstract:
Abstract Background Self-collected specimens have been advocated to avoid infectious exposure to healthcare workers. Self-induced sputum in those with a productive cough and saliva in those without a productive cough have been proposed, but sensitivity remains uncertain. Methods We performed a prospective study in 2 regional hospitals in Hong Kong. Results We prospectively examined 563 serial samples collected during the virus shedding periods of 50 patients: 150 deep throat saliva (DTS), 309 pooled-nasopharyngeal (NP) and throat swabs, and 104 sputum. Deep throat saliva had the lowest overall reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-positive rate (68.7% vs 89.4% [sputum] and 80.9% [pooled NP and throat swabs]) and the lowest viral ribonucleic acid (RNA) concentration (mean log copy/mL 3.54 vs 5.03 [sputum] and 4.63 [pooled NP and throat swabs]). Analyses with respect to time from symptom onset and severity also revealed similar results. Virus yields of DTS correlated with that of sputum (Pearson correlation index 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.62–0.86). We estimated that the overall false-negative rate of DTS could be as high as 31.3% and increased 2.7 times among patients without sputum. Conclusions Deep throat saliva produced the lowest viral RNA concentration and RT-PCR-positive rate compared with conventional respiratory specimens in all phases of illness. Self-collected sputum should be the choice for patients with sputum.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
10

Ibne Hossain, Niamat Ullah, Morteza Nagahi, Raed Jaradat, Chiranjibi Shah, Randy Buchanan, and Michael Hamilton. "Modeling and assessing cyber resilience of smart grid using Bayesian network-based approach: a system of systems problem." Journal of Computational Design and Engineering 7, no. 3 (April 4, 2020): 352–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jcde/qwaa029.

Full text
Abstract:
Abstract Due to the widespread of new technologies, the modern electric power system has become much more complex and uncertain. The Integration of technologies in the electric power system has increased the exposure of cyber threats and correlative susceptibilities from malicious cyber-attacks. To better address these cyber risks and minimize the effects of the power system outage, this research identifies the potential causes and mitigation techniques for the smart grid (SG) and assesses the overall cyber resilience of smart grid systems using a Bayesian network approach. Bayesian network is a powerful analytical tool predominantly used in risk, reliability, and resilience assessment under uncertainty. The quantification of the model is examined, and the results are analyzed through different advanced techniques such as predictive inference reasoning and sensitivity analysis. Different scenarios have been developed and analyzed to identify critical variables that are susceptible to the cyber resilience of a smart grid system of systems. Insight drawn from these analyses suggests that overall cyber resilience of the SG system of systems is dependent upon the status of identified factors, and more attention should be directed towards developing the countermeasures against access domain vulnerability. The research also shows the efficacy of a Bayesian network to assess and enhance the overall cyber resilience of the smart grid system of systems.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
More sources

Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Sensitivity to Uncertain Threat"

1

Moradi, Shahrzad. "Convergent-Methods Examination of Acute Threat and Potential Threat in the Context of Anxiety Sensitivity and Intolerance of Uncertainty." Ohio University / OhioLINK, 2020. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou1597152577986068.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
2

Borger, Sharon C. "Attentional bias for threat information and anxiety sensitivity in a nonclinical sample." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp01/MQ56112.pdf.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
3

Jacob, Filho Jorge Rodrigues. "The price of threat: the role of identity-safe marketplaces in predicting intergroup price sensitivity." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/16579.

Full text
Abstract:
Submitted by JORGE JACOB FILHO (jorgejacob@gmail.com) on 2016-05-24T18:36:39Z No. of bitstreams: 2 ~$e price of the threat - dissertação 06.05 (completo).docx: 162 bytes, checksum: 2ae824f3602b738b79fd94cffe5d470f (MD5) Dissertação final para biblioteca 24.mai.pdf: 1505142 bytes, checksum: ed1c813b8dd0d5ad8dadcd26d9c6ebac (MD5)
Approved for entry into archive by ÁUREA CORRÊA DA FONSECA CORRÊA DA FONSECA (aurea.fonseca@fgv.br) on 2016-06-03T12:36:21Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 ~$e price of the threat - dissertação 06.05 (completo).docx: 162 bytes, checksum: 2ae824f3602b738b79fd94cffe5d470f (MD5) Dissertação final para biblioteca 24.mai.pdf: 1505142 bytes, checksum: ed1c813b8dd0d5ad8dadcd26d9c6ebac (MD5)
Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2016-06-07T14:42:38Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 ~$e price of the threat - dissertação 06.05 (completo).docx: 162 bytes, checksum: 2ae824f3602b738b79fd94cffe5d470f (MD5) Dissertação final para biblioteca 24.mai.pdf: 1505142 bytes, checksum: ed1c813b8dd0d5ad8dadcd26d9c6ebac (MD5)
Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-07T14:42:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 ~$e price of the threat - dissertação 06.05 (completo).docx: 162 bytes, checksum: 2ae824f3602b738b79fd94cffe5d470f (MD5) Dissertação final para biblioteca 24.mai.pdf: 1505142 bytes, checksum: ed1c813b8dd0d5ad8dadcd26d9c6ebac (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-04-26
In field experiments with subjects living either inside or outside Brazilian slums (n=955), we show that consumers living in slums are less price sensitive, in opposition with recent price sensitivity research. Comparing slum and non-slum dwellers, we found that negatively stereotyped consumers (e.g. slum dwellers) were more likely to pay higher amounts for friendlier customer service when facing social identity threats (SITs) in marketplaces such as banks. The mechanism which makes them less price sensitive is related to the perception of how other people evaluate their social groups, and we argue that they pay more because they are seeking identity-safe commercial relationships. This work, besides extending the literature in SITs, presents a perspective for the exchange between economics and psychology on price sensitivity, showing that consumers living in slums are willing to pay more to avoid possibly social identity threating experiences.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
4

Ahmad, Sara, and Vanessa Sved. "COVID-19-related anxiety predicted by three different psychological behaviors; Health anxiety, Disgust sensitivity and Intolerance of uncertainty." Thesis, Örebro universitet, Institutionen för juridik, psykologi och socialt arbete, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-88970.

Full text
Abstract:
The aim of this study was to examine whether three different psychological predictors; Health anxiety (SHAI), Disgust sensitivity (DS-R) and intolerance of uncertainty (IUS-12) could predict COVID-19-related anxiety in students at Orebro University, Sweden. It was hypothesized that there would be a significant relationship between the three psychological behaviors and pandemic-related anxiety. An online survey, consisting of both standardized and non-standardized questionnaires, was constructed. The survey was completed by 199 participants, aged between 19-48 (M = 25.14 and SD = 5.35) from Orebro University, Sweden through Limesurvey. A correlation revealed that Health anxiety and Disgust sensitivity were significantly correlated with COVID-19-related anxiety. The regression analysis revealed that there was a significance between the three psychological behaviors and COVID-19-related anxiety. In conclusion, Health anxiety, Disgust sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty, could indeed be associated with COVID-19-related anxiety in the students.
Syftet med studien är att examinera huruvida tre olika psykologiska beteenden; Health anxiety (SHAI), Disgust sensitivity (DS-R) och Intolerance of uncertainty (IUS-12) kan förutse COVID-19-relaterad ångest i studenter på Örebro Universitet. Det hypotiserades att det skulle finnas en signifikant relation baserat på tidigare studier. En online enkät, med både standardiserade och icke-standardiserade frågeformulär, konstruerades. Antal deltagare som kompletterade enkäten genom Limesurvey var 199 studenter mellan åldrarna 19–48 (M = 25.14 och SD = 5.35) från Örebro Universitet. Genom en korrelationsanalys kunde man se att både Health anxiety och Disgust sensitivity var signifikant korrelerade med COVID-19-relaterad Pandemi. Avslutningsvis, en multipel regressionsanalys visade att Health anxiety, Disgust sensitivity och Intolerance of uncertainty var signifikant relaterat med COVID-19-relaterad ångest i studenterna.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
5

Martin, Rebecca. "Sensitivity analysis of offshore wind farm availability and operations & maintenance costs subject to uncertain input factors." Thesis, University of Strathclyde, 2016. http://oleg.lib.strath.ac.uk:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=27078.

Full text
Abstract:
The deployment of offshore wind farms (OWFs) has increased in response to the threat of diminishing fossil fuel resources, climate change and the need for security of supply. The cost of offshore wind generation has not reached parity with established forms of electricity production. Operators need to simultaneously decrease the total project costs and increase energy yield to achieve a levelised cost of energy of £100/MWh. However, aspects of the Operations and Maintenance (O&M) remain uncertain, either through stochastic processes or through inexperience in the field. One way to handle uncertainty is to define how much the variance in these aspects affect the cost and availability. The thesis in hand introduces an O&M model and seeks to quantify the effects of uncertain inputs using complex sensitivity analysis methods. The sensitivity analysis is applied to an O&M computer simulation model for offshore wind that was developed prior to this project. Case study OWFs are identified to assess if the important factors are different when projects are comprised of a large number of wind turbine generators (WTGs) and are further offshore from the O&M hub port. The set of cases for the global sensitivity analysis comprises of three projects, to provide information applicable to the industry and demonstrate pertinence of sensitivity analysis on a case by case basis. A screening analysis, using the Morris method, is conducted to identify the most important factors on project cost and availability. This resulted in a list of twenty factors, relating to failure rates; duration of operations and information relating to vessels costs. An in-depth uncertainty analysis is conducted with the important factors to establish their distributions where possible. A global, variance-based sensitivity analysis, using the Sobol’ method, is performed to quantify the effect on the variance of the two outputs. No single factor dominated the effect on O&M cost and availability for all cases. For each case, one to five factors contributed most to output variances. As an example, for a case of 30 WTGs located 20km offshore from the O&M hub port, the output variances are mainly a result of the change of number of crew transfer vessels and heavy lift vessel mobilisation time for nacelle component replacement. For an OWF with more WTGs, further from shore; the availability variance is dominated by more routine repair operations. Moreover, costs are largely dominated by WTG reliability. This work has confirmed that O&M costs are affected by the cost of deploying heavy-lift vessels even though only a small proportion of repairs require them. Significant factors are inconsistent across all the scenarios, supporting the conclusion that sensitivity analysis of each case is a necessary part of O&M costs and availability simulation. Using the most up-to-date information on current O&M practices, the analysis provides an indication of where to focus efforts for O&M cost reduction and improved availability.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
6

Dande, Ketan Kiran. "Eco-Inspired Robustness Analysis of Linear Uncertain Systems Using Elemental Sensitivities." The Ohio State University, 2012. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1331104551.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
7

Nash, Claire-Louise. "The mediational effect of self-regulatory capacity on the relationship between temperament, childhood invalidation and interpersonal functioning : testing a new neuro-regulatory model." Thesis, University of Exeter, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10036/3721.

Full text
Abstract:
Based on existing theories of personality and socio-emotional functioning (e.g. Clark, 2005; Lynch, Hempel & Clark, in press) a new model is proposed and tested. The model hypothesises that (i) temperament (reward and threat sensitivity) and childhood invalidation predict problems with interpersonal functioning, (ii) this effect is mediated by self-regulatory capacity; where self-regulatory capacity comprises self-control (ranging from emotional over-control to emotional under-control) and flexible control and (iii) self-regulatory capacity itself has a quadratic relationship with interpersonal functioning. A UK community sample (n= 512) completed a self-report survey, measuring each of the aforementioned latent variables. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was used to determine the goodness-of-fit of this and variations of this model. SEM identified that a non-mediation model provided the best fit (χ²=49.403, p< 0.001; CFI=0.98; RMSEA=0.056). Good-fit was obtained for a model including flexible control as a partial mediator (χ²=269.06, p< 0.001; CFI=0.956; RMSEA=0.081) and adequate-fit for a model including over-control as a partial mediator (χ²= 91.744, p < 0.001, CFI=0.932; RMSEA= 0.096). Correlation analyses suggested that over-control and under-control correlated positively with interpersonal problems. Results from SEM provided promising initial evidence for the mediating role of self-regulatory capacity, particularly for the flexible control component. Correlation analyses provided support for the non-linear relationship between self-regulatory capacity and interpersonal functioning, whereby extreme over-control or extreme under-control is associated with interpersonal problems. Findings have implications for identifying mechanisms of change for therapeutic approaches to emotion dysregulation and for understanding the over-controlled population, which has previously been overlooked.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
8

Barnsley, Megan Christina. "The social consequences of defensive physiological states." Thesis, University of Exeter, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10036/4062.

Full text
Abstract:
This thesis examines the validity of polyvagal theory as a model of normal socio-emotional responding (Porges, 1995, 2001, 2003a). Polyvagal theory makes several claims, and to date many of its predictions lack empirical testing. In the current research, five main hypotheses stemming from polyvagal theory were identified and tested using healthy participants. The initial empirical study examined the influence of laboratory stressors on autonomic function. The findings revealed that social evaluative threat increases activation of the sympathetic nervous system more than a virtual reality maze, and that arousal remains elevated for longer during anticipation of social evaluative threat in comparison to recovery from social evaluative threat. The second study investigated the effects of emotion regulation strategies on autonomic function, and highlighted the effectiveness of two meditation practices in reducing defensive physiological arousal and increasing subjective positive emotion. These studies were followed with a set of studies designed to evaluate the effects of defensive physiological arousal on socio-emotional functioning, as a direct test of polyvagal theory. The first study examined the effects of a laboratory stressor on facial expressivity, revealing that social evaluative threat had little impact on expressive regulation. A second study investigated the effects of a laboratory stressor on emotional sensitivity and spontaneous facial mimicry. Some limited support was found for polyvagal theory, although neither emotional sensitivity nor facial mimicry was significantly affected by laboratory stress. A final empirical study investigated the effects of a laboratory stressor on affiliation tendencies. The laboratory stressor did not influence participants’ willingness to spend time with others, however the experiment did reveal significant relationships between markers of social safeness and affiliation. The overall conclusion of this thesis is that polyvagal may not be a representative model of socio-emotional functioning in healthy participants. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to the validity of polyvagal theory as a universal model of socio-emotional responding.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
9

Hiebenthal, Claas [Verfasser]. "Sensitivity of A. islandica and M. edulis towards environmental changes : a threat to the bivalves ; an opportunity for palaeo-climatology? = Sensitivität von A. islandica und M. edulis gegenüber Umweltveränderungen / Claas Hiebenthal." Kiel : Universitätsbibliothek Kiel, 2009. http://d-nb.info/101986687X/34.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
10

Abu-Sheikh, Khalil. "Reviewing and Evaluating Techniques for Modeling and Analyzing Security Requirements." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Avdelningen för programvarusystem, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-6203.

Full text
Abstract:
The software engineering community recognized the importance of addressing security requirements with other functional requirements from the beginning of the software development life cycle. Therefore, there are some techniques that have been developed to achieve this goal. Thus, we conducted a theoretical study that focuses on reviewing and evaluating some of the techniques that are used to model and analyze security requirements. Thus, the Abuse Cases, Misuse Cases, Data Sensitivity and Threat Analyses, Strategic Modeling, and Attack Trees techniques are investigated in detail to understand and highlight the similarities and differences between them. We found that using these techniques, in general, help requirements engineer to specify more detailed security requirements. Also, all of these techniques cover the concepts of security but in different levels. In addition, the existence of different techniques provides a variety of levels for modeling and analyzing security requirements. This helps requirements engineer to decide which technique to use in order to address security issues for the system under investigation. Finally, we found that using only one of these techniques will not be suitable enough to satisfy the security requirements of the system under investigation. Consequently, we consider that it would be beneficial to combine the Abuse Cases or Misuse Cases techniques with the Attack Trees technique or to combine the Strategic Modeling and Attack Trees techniques together in order to model and analyze security requirements of the system under investigation. The concentration on using the Attack Trees technique is due to the reusability of the produced attack trees, also this technique helps in covering a wide range of attacks, thus covering security concepts as well as security requirements in a proper way.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
More sources

Books on the topic "Sensitivity to Uncertain Threat"

1

Jackson, Brian A. Marrying prevention and resiliency: Balancing approaches to an uncertain terrorist threat. Santa Monica: Rand, 2008.

Find full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
2

Jackson, Brian A. Marrying prevention and resiliency: Balancing approaches to an uncertain terrorist threat. Santa Monica: Rand, 2008.

Find full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
3

Jackson, Brian A. Marrying prevention and resiliency: Balancing approaches to an uncertain terrorist threat. Santa Monica: Rand, 2008.

Find full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
4

Jackson, Brian A. Marrying prevention and resiliency: Balancing approaches to an uncertain terrorist threat. Santa Monica: Rand, 2008.

Find full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
5

Center for Strategic and International Studies (Washington, D.C.), ed. Confronting an uncertain threat: The future of Al Qaeda and associated movements. Washington, D.C: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2011.

Find full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
6

1946-, Bush George W., and United States. Congress. House. Committee on International Relations., eds. Report on the status of United States Efforts in Lebanon: Communication from the President of the United States transmitting a letter notifying Congress, consistent with the War Powers Resolution, that on July 14, 2006, due to the uncertain security situation and the possible threat to American citizens and the American Embassy in Lebanon, Department of Defense assistance has been requested to assist in the departure of American citizens in Lebanon. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2006.

Find full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
7

Clinton), United States President (1993-2001 :. Status on Sierra Leone: Communication from the President of the United States transmitting a letter notifying Congress that on May 29 and May 30, due to the uncertain security situation and the possible threat to American citizens and the American embassy in Sierra Leone, approximately 200 U.S. military personnel, including an 11-member special forces detachment, were positioned in Freetown to prepare for the evacuation of certain U.S. government employees and private U.S. citizens. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 1997.

Find full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
8

M, Adelman Howard, Sobieski Jaroslaw, and Langley Research Center, eds. Optimization for minimum sensitivity to uncertain parameters. Hampton, Va: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Langley Research Center, 1994.

Find full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
9

Kang, Sonia K. Stigma sensitivity and stereotype threat in older adults. 2006.

Find full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
10

Uncertain Allies: Nixon, Kissinger, and the Threat of a United Europe. Yale University Press, 2022.

Find full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
More sources

Book chapters on the topic "Sensitivity to Uncertain Threat"

1

Denefrio, Samantha, and Tracy A. Dennis-Tiwary. "Threat Sensitivity." In Encyclopedia of Personality and Individual Differences, 5503–4. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24612-3_869.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
2

Denefrio, Samantha, and Tracy A. Dennis-Tiwary. "Threat Sensitivity." In Encyclopedia of Personality and Individual Differences, 1–3. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-28099-8_869-1.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
3

Weinmann, Alexander. "Transition Matrix Differential Sensitivity." In Uncertain Models and Robust Control, 107–13. Vienna: Springer Vienna, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-6711-3_7.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
4

Weinmann, Alexander. "Characteristic Polynomial Differential Sensitivity." In Uncertain Models and Robust Control, 115–22. Vienna: Springer Vienna, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-6711-3_8.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
5

Weinmann, Alexander. "Eigenvalue and Eigenvector Differential Sensitivity." In Uncertain Models and Robust Control, 95–106. Vienna: Springer Vienna, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-6711-3_6.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
6

Weinmann, Alexander. "Optimal Control and Performance Sensitivity." In Uncertain Models and Robust Control, 123–36. Vienna: Springer Vienna, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-6711-3_9.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
7

Preusser, Tobias, Robert M. Kirby, and Torben Pätz. "Sensitivity Analysis." In Stochastic Partial Differential Equations for Computer Vision with Uncertain Data, 117–30. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-02594-5_7.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
8

Mitra, Abhijit. "Climate Change: A Threat of the Era." In Sensitivity of Mangrove Ecosystem to Changing Climate, 1–31. New Delhi: Springer India, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-81-322-1509-7_1.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
9

Schoenwald, Dave A., and Ümit Özgüner. "Decentralized Control of Uncertain Systems via Sensitivity Models." In Topics in Control and its Applications, 171–87. London: Springer London, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-0543-5_10.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
10

Pham, Khanh D. "Towards a Risk Sensitivity and Game-Theoretic Approach of Stochastic Fault-Tolerant Systems." In Resilient Controls for Ordering Uncertain Prospects, 27–48. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-08705-4_3.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

Conference papers on the topic "Sensitivity to Uncertain Threat"

1

Sallaberry, Cédric J., Robert E. Kurth, Frederick W. Brust, and Elizabeth A. Kurth. "Sensitivity Analysis for XLPR Acceptance Testing." In ASME 2017 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2017-65991.

Full text
Abstract:
The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) have jointly funded the development of the probabilistic analysis tool xLPR (extremely Low Probability of Rupture) version 2.0 for calculating the probability of a leak before break for welded pipes [1]. The acceptance testing for the program was completed in July of 2016. This allowed the release of the code to the development team. The released version of xLPR v 2.0 was used to run probabilistic simulations on selected scenarios and then perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on selected results. Uncertainty Analysis (UA) informs on how much the uncertainty affect the outputs while Sensitivity Analysis (SA) ranks the uncertain parameters in term of importance (i.e., influence over uncertainty) for selected outputs. In this paper, we present the methodology used to perform Sensitivity Analysis using three regression techniques as well as scatterplots for graphical study. The results generated are consistent both with the experts’ expectations and our understanding of the equations used in the sub-models.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
2

Jayaraman, Buvana, Manas Khurana, Andrew Wissink, and Rohit Jain. "Uncertainty Quantification Approach for Rotorcraft Simulations." In Vertical Flight Society 78th Annual Forum & Technology Display. The Vertical Flight Society, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4050/f-0078-2022-17462.

Full text
Abstract:
The goal of this work is to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of freestream velocity and wind direction on wing download and rotor thrust predictions for the Joint Vertical Experiment (JVX) tiltrotor configuration in hover. Even light winds can have a significant impact on hover performance. Accordingly, an accurate representation of hover performance with uncertainties due to variability in atmospheric wind conditions needs to be understood. To support this effort, mid-fidelity simulations with a Reduced Order Aerodynamic Model in CREATETM-AV Helios is used to generate training and testing data for constructing the surrogate models. Uncertainty propagation is facilitated using a surrogate-based approach which integrates stochastic expansions based non-intrusive polynomial chaos method in the Dakota�environment. The first test case considers wind velocity and directions treated as epistemic uncertain variables. Post uncertainty analysis, parameter sensitivities are established using Sobol indices to rank the relative contribution of input parameters to the total uncertainty in download and thrust. Sensitivity analysis showed that the interaction of wind velocity and direction has the largest influence on download predictions. The second case includes collective as an uncertain input and additionally carries out a sensitivity analysis. Computed Sobol indices identified collective as the major contributor of uncertainty. Ultimately, uncertainty quantification procedure laid out in this work can facilitate informed design decisions based on quantifiable data that is formed using validated computational approaches integrated with established data science principles with statistical metrics.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
3

Muscolino, Giuseppe, Roberta Santoro, and Alba Sofi. "Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis of Structural Systems With Interval Uncertainties." In ASME 2013 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2013-63482.

Full text
Abstract:
Interval sensitivity analysis of linear discretized structures with uncertain-but-bounded parameters subjected to stationary multi-correlated Gaussian stochastic processes is addressed. The proposed procedure relies on the use of the so-called Interval Rational Series Expansion (IRSE), recently proposed by the authors as an alternative explicit expression of the Neumann series expansion for the inverse of a matrix with a small rank-r modification and properly extended to handle also interval matrices. The IRSE allows to derive approximate explicit expressions of the interval sensitivities of the mean-value vector and Power Spectral Density (PSD) function matrix of the interval stationary stochastic response. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through numerical results pertaining to a seismically excited three-storey frame structure with interval Young’s moduli of some columns.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
4

Dourado, Arinan De P., Jefferson S. Barbosa, Tobias S. Morais, Aldemir Ap Cavalini, and Valder Steffen. "Uncertainty Analysis of a Francis Hydropower Unit." In ASME 2018 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2018-85428.

Full text
Abstract:
This contribution is dedicated to the analysis of uncertainties affecting the vibration responses of a Francis hydropower unit. The system is composed by a vertical rotor and three hydrodynamic bearings: i) a combined tilting-pad guide/thrust bearing, located close to the generator; ii) an intermediate radial tilting-pad bearing; iii) and a cylindrical bearing located close to the Francis turbine. The bearings are represented by using linearized stiffness and damping coefficients. A fuzzy uncertainty analysis was applied aiming at determining the extreme vibration responses of the system. In this case, the bearings stiffness coefficients, generator mass, and Young’s modulus of the shaft were considered as uncertain information. The fuzzy analysis was carried out through the so-called α-level optimization approach due to its mathematical simplicity. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed based on the obtained results to determine the uncertain parameters that most affect the rotor responses. The obtained results demonstrate the representativeness of the conveyed methodology.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
5

Zhe, Wang, Qiang Tian, and Hiayan Hu. "Dynamics Study and Sensitivity Analysis of Flexible Multibody Systems With Interval Parameters." In ASME 2016 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2016-59349.

Full text
Abstract:
The dynamics of flexible multibody systems with interval parameters is studied based on a non-intrusive computation methodology. The Absolute Nodal Coordinate Formulation (ANCF) is used to model the rigid-flexible multibody system, including the finite elements of the ANCF and the ANCF Reference Nodes (ANCF-RNs). The Chebyshev sampling methods including Chebyshev tensor product (CTP) sampling method and Chebyshev collocation method (CCM), are utilized to generate the Chebyshev surrogate model for Interval Differential Algebraic Equations (IDAEs). For purpose of preventing the interval explosion problem and maintaining computation efficiency, the interval bounds of the IDAEs are determined by scanning the deduced Chebyshev surrogate model. To further improve the computation efficiency, OpenMP directives are also used to parallelize the solving process of the Differential Algebraic Equations (DAEs) by fixing the uncertain interval parameter at the given sampling points. The sensitivity analysis of flexible multibody systems with interval parameters is initially performed by using the direct differentiation method. The direct differentiation method differentiates the dynamic equations with respect to the design variable, which yields the system sensitivity equations governed by DAEs. The generalized alpha method is introduced to integrate the sensitivity DAEs. The sensitivity equations of flexible multibody systems with interval parameters are also described by the IDAEs. Based on the continuum mechanics, the computational efficient analytical formulations for the derivative items of the system sensitivity equations are deduced. Three examples are studied to validate the proposed methodology, including the complicated spatial rigid-flexible multibody systems with a large number of uncertain interval parameters, the flexible system with uncertain interval clearance size joint, and the first order sensitivity analysis of flexible multibody systems with interval parameters. Firstly, the dynamics analysis of a six-arm space robot with six interval parameters is performed. For this case study, the interval dynamics cannot be obtained by directly scanning the IDAEs because extremely huge sets of DAEs with deterministic samples have to be solved. The estimated total computational time for solving the scanned IDAEs will be 1850 days! However, the computational time for solving the scanned Chebyshev surrogate model is 9796.97 seconds. It shows the effectiveness of the proposed computation methodology. Then, the nonlinear dynamics of a planar slider-crank mechanism with uncertain interval clearance size joint is studied in this work. The kinetics model of the revolute clearance joints is formulated under the ANCF-RN framework. Moreover, the influence of the LuGre and the modified Coulomb’s friction force models on the system’s dynamic response is investigated. By analyzing the bounds of dynamic response, the bifurcation diagrams are observed. It must be highlighted that with increasing the size of clearance, it does not automatically lead to unstable behaviors. Finally, the first order sensitivity analysis of flexible multibody systems with interval parameters is also studied in this work. The third one of a flexible mechanism with interval parameters is used to perform the sensitivity analysis.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
6

Avdonin, Alexander, and Wolfgang Polifke. "Quantification of the Impact of Uncertainties in Operating Conditions on the Flame Transfer Function With Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos Expansion." In ASME Turbo Expo 2018: Turbomachinery Technical Conference and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/gt2018-75476.

Full text
Abstract:
Non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion (NIPCE) is used to quantify the impact of uncertainties in operating conditions on the flame transfer function of a premixed laminar flame. NIPCE requires only a small number of system evaluations, so it can be applied in cases where a Monte Carlo simulation is unfeasible. We consider three uncertain operating parameters: inlet velocity, burner plate temperature, and equivalence ratio. The flame transfer function (FTF) is identified in terms of the finite impulse response from CFD simulations with broadband velocity excitation. NIPCE yields uncertainties in the FTF due to the uncertain operating conditions. For the chosen uncertain operating bounds, a second-order expansion is found to be sufficient to represent the resulting uncertainties in the FTF with good accuracy. The effect of each operating parameter on the FTF is studied using Sobol indices, i.e. a variance-based measure of sensitivity, which are computed from the NIPCE. It is observed that in the present case uncertainties in the finite impulse response as well as in the phase of the FTF are dominated by the equivalence-ratio uncertainty. For frequencies below 150 Hz, the uncertainty in the gain of the FTF is also attributable to the uncertainty in equivalence-ratio, but for higher frequencies the uncertainties in velocity and temperature dominate. At last, we adopt the polynomial approximation of the output quantity, provided by the NIPCE method, for further UQ studies with modified input uncertainties.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
7

Davis, Brad, Gregory Langone, and Nicholas Reisweber. "Sensitivity Analysis and Bayesian Calibration of a Holmquist-Johnson-Cook Material Model for Cellular Concrete Subjected to Impact Loading." In ASME 2022 Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification Symposium. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/vvs2022-86800.

Full text
Abstract:
Abstract Periodic updates to small caliber weapon systems and projectiles used in military and law enforcement have resulted in consistently increasing material penetration capabilities. With each new generation, ballistics technology outpaces the lifecycle replacement of live-fire training facilities. For this reason, it is necessary to develop and maintain constitutive material models for use in analyzing the effects new threats will have on existing facilities and for designing new training facilities using numerical methods. This project utilizes material testing data to characterize cellular concretes used in the construction of live-fire training facilities with a 13-parameter Holmquist-Johnson-Cook (HJC) concrete constitutive model. Various statistical tools are used in this analysis to successfully describe the importance of each model parameter and quantify their uncertainty. First, Bayesian linear regression was used to calibrate the parameters in the strength and pressure components of the HJC material model given testing data of cellular concrete. These uncertain parameters were then used to construct computer simulations of penetration and perforation experiments that were previously conducted by Collard and Lanham. Then, Latin Hypercube Sampling of the parameter space was used to generate training data for a Gaussian Process surrogate model of the computer simulation. Using the surrogate model, a global variance-based sensitivity analysis of the material model was completed by computing main and total effect Sobol indices. Finally, a Bayesian calibration of the computer simulation based on the physical experiments was conducted to fully characterize the stochastic behavior of the material subjected to perforation impacts. These approaches can be used to inform decision makers about the potential risk associated with existing facilities and by designers of future live fire training facilities.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
8

Zhao, Xike, Wei Song, Hae Chang Gea, and Limei Xu. "Topology Optimization With Unknown-but-Bounded Load Uncertainty." In ASME 2014 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2014-35210.

Full text
Abstract:
In this paper, convex modeling based topology optimization with load uncertainty is presented. The load uncertainty is described using the non-probabilistic based unknown-but-bounded convex model, and the strain energy based topology optimization problem under uncertain loads is formulated. Unlike the conventional deterministic topology optimization problem, the maximum possible strain energy under uncertain loads is selected as the new objective in order to achieve a safe solution. Instead of obtaining approximated solutions as used before, an exact solution procedure is presented. The problem is first formulated as a single level optimization problem, and then rewritten as a two-level optimization problem. The upper level optimization problem is solved as a deterministic topology optimization with the load which generated from the worst structure response in the lower level problem. The lower level optimization problem is to identify this worst structure response, and it is found equivalent to an inhomogeneous eigenvalue problem. Three different cases are discussed for accurately evaluating the global optima of the lower level optimization problem, while the corresponding sensitivities are derived individually. With the function value and sensitivity information ready, the upper level optimization problem can be solved through existing gradient based optimization algorithms. The effectiveness of the proposed convex modeling based topology optimization is demonstrated through different numerical examples.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
9

Ayello, Francois, Guanlan Liu, and Jiana Zhang. "Decision Making Through the Application of Bayesian Network for Internal Corrosion Assessment of Pipelines." In ASME 2018 37th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2018-78677.

Full text
Abstract:
Decision making for a new pipeline’s design and provision of the most effective maintenance or repair measures for a pipeline in operation can be a long and costly process. The final decision made, whether during design or operation, may not always reduce the risk or remediate the threat. This is mainly due to the uncertainty and missing information regarding the field chemistry for current and future pipeline operating conditions, that were not considered and quantified during the assessment. In this paper, two case studies of pipeline internal corrosion risk are presented, one for pipeline in design and the latter for pipeline in operation. Both cases were assessed using Bayesian Networks. Bayesian Networks (BN) have been used to quantify the value of information of uncertain and missing data. BN displays the cause-effect relationships of these data in the form of conditional probabilities to describe how one’s data is influencing internal corrosion rates probability. Thus, predicting the pipeline’s conditions over the design life. Operators can visualize the development of internal corrosion within a pipeline over time and gain clearer understanding of the causal relationships that could lead to pipeline failure. The results allowed operators to confirm the effects of the parameter and followed by a sensitivity analysis to find out which data to prioritize in acquisition and validation before proceeding to decide on how the pipeline should be designed and maintained/inspected in future.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
10

Petruzzi, A., and F. D’Auria. "Uncertainties in Predictions by Thermal-Hydraulic Codes: Approaches and Results." In ASME 2010 3rd Joint US-European Fluids Engineering Summer Meeting collocated with 8th International Conference on Nanochannels, Microchannels, and Minichannels. ASMEDC, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/fedsm-icnmm2010-31280.

Full text
Abstract:
The present paper deals with the description of the salient features of three independent approaches for estimating uncertainties associated with predictions of complex system codes. The 1st approach is the “standard” one and the most used at the industrial level: it is based upon the selection of input uncertain parameters, on assigning related ranges of variations and, possibly, PDF (Probability Density Functions) and on performing a suitable number of code runs to get the combined effect of variation on the results. In the 2nd approach the uncertainty derives from the comparison between relevant measured data and results of corresponding code calculations. The 3rd approach is based upon a sensitivity analysis procedure and uses the experimental data to characterize the ranges of variation of ‘all’ input parameters. Selected results from the application of the 2nd approach are outlined.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

Reports on the topic "Sensitivity to Uncertain Threat"

1

Vowels, Christopher L. Asymmetric Attention: Visualizing the Uncertain Threat. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, March 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada516567.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
2

Tucker, W. Troy, and Scott Ferson. Sensitivity in risk analyses with uncertain numbers. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), June 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/886899.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
3

Wolf, Michael M., Youssef M. Marzouk, Brian M. Adams, Karen Dragon Devine, Jaideep Ray, and Habib N. Najm. Distributed micro-releases of bioterror pathogens : threat characterizations and epidemiology from uncertain patient observables. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), October 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/945910.

Full text
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
4

McDowell Peek, Katie, Blair Tormey, Holli Thompson, Allan Ellsworth, and Cat Hawkins Hoffman. Climate change vulnerability assessments in the National Park Service: An integrated review for infrastructure, natural resources, and cultural resources. National Park Service, June 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.36967/nrr-2293650.

Full text
Abstract:
Climate changes are affecting virtually all National Park Service units and resources, and an assessment of climate vulnerabilities is important for developing proactive management plans to respond appropriately to these changes and threats. Vulnerability assessments typically evaluate exposure and sensitivity of the assessment targets and evaluate adaptive capacity for living resources. Chapters in this report review and evaluate climate vulnerability assessments of National Park Service units and resources including infrastructure, natural resources, and cultural resources. Striking results were the diversity of approaches to conducting vulnerability assessments, the small number of vulnerability assessments for National Park Service cultural resources, and the large differences in the “state of the science” of conducting assessments among the three resource groups. Vulnerability assessment methodologies are well established for evaluating infrastructure and natural resources, albeit with very different techniques, but far less is known or available for designing and/or conducting cultural resources assessments. Challenges consistently identified in the vulnerability assessments, or the chapters were: Limited capacity of park staff to fully engage in the design and/or execution of the vulnerability assessments. Most park staff are fully engaged in on-going duties. Inconsistent use of terms, definitions, and protocols, sometimes resulting in confusion or inefficiencies. Discovering and acquiring National Park Service vulnerability assessments because results were inconsistently archived. Aligning results with park needs due to differences in level of detail, scope, and/or resolution, or format(s) for reporting results. Best practices and recommendations identified in multiple chapters were: Ensure that vulnerability assessments are designed to match parks’ needs, and that results are reported in ways that inform identified management decisions. Prioritize resources to be thoroughly assessed so effort is directed to the most important threats and resources. Evaluate all components of vulnerability (not just exposure). Explicitly and systematically address uncertainty, recognizing the range of climate projections and our understanding of potential responses. Identify and, where possible, focus on key vulnerabilities that most threaten conservation or management goals. Embrace partnerships and engage others with necessary expertise. Good vulnerability assessments usually require expertise in a broad range of subject areas.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
5

Bacharach, Eran, W. Ian Lipkin, and Avigdor Eldar. Identification of the etiological agent of tilapia disease in the Lake of Galillee. United States Department of Agriculture, January 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2013.7597932.bard.

Full text
Abstract:
Background to the topic. Tilapines serve as the second most important group of farmed fish worldwide. Massive mortality of wild and cultured tilapia has been observed recently in Israel but the pathogen of this disease has not been identified. We proposed to identify the agent responsible for disease.  Major conclusions, solutions, achievements. We characterized the lesions in diseased fish and found that the brain was one of the affected organs. We found conditions to isolate from brains of diseased fish the etiological agent of the tilapia disease and to propagate it in cell culture. This led to the identification of the pathogen as a novel RNA virus, which we named Tilapia Lake Virus (TiLV). Electron microscopy of TiLV revealed virion-like particles and ether/chloroform-sensitivity assays demonstrated that TiLV is enveloped. Low passage TiLV, injected intra-peritoneally to tilapia, induced a disease with over 80% mortality. Cohabitation of healthy with diseased fish demonstrated that the disease is contagious, and that mortalities occur within few days. Fish surviving initial mortality were immune to further TiLV infections, suggesting the mounting of protective immune response. Screening cDNA libraries and high throughput sequencing determined the sequence of TiLV genome. This demonstrated that TiLV is indeed a novel virus and allowed the design of a PCRbased diagnostic test.  Implications, both scientific and agricultural. The characterization of a novel, emerging RNA virus that imposes major threat to the tilapia industry, enables the specific identification of the virus in tilapines. This allows prompt screening and surveillance of TiLV, epidemiological studies, and disease containment. This also potentially opens the way for the development of vaccines against TiLV.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
6

Holland, Darren, and Nazmina Mahmoudzadeh. Foodborne Disease Estimates for the United Kingdom in 2018. Food Standards Agency, January 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.46756/sci.fsa.squ824.

Full text
Abstract:
In February 2020 the FSA published two reports which produced new estimates of foodborne norovirus cases. These were the ‘Norovirus Attribution Study’ (NoVAS study) (O’Brien et al., 2020) and the accompanying internal FSA technical review ‘Technical Report: Review of Quantitative Risk Assessment of foodborne norovirus transmission’ (NoVAS model review), (Food Standards Agency, 2020). The NoVAS study produced a Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment model (QMRA) to estimate foodborne norovirus. The NoVAS model review considered the impact of using alternative assumptions and other data sources on these estimates. From these two pieces of work, a revised estimate of foodborne norovirus was produced. The FSA has therefore updated its estimates of annual foodborne disease to include these new results and also to take account of more recent data related to other pathogens. The estimates produced include: •Estimates of GP presentations and hospital admissions for foodbornenorovirus based on the new estimates of cases. The NoVAS study onlyproduced estimates for cases. •Estimates of foodborne cases, GP presentations and hospital admissions for12 other pathogens •Estimates of unattributed cases of foodborne disease •Estimates of total foodborne disease from all pathogens Previous estimates An FSA funded research project ‘The second study of infectious intestinal disease in the community’, published in 2012 and referred to as the IID2 study (Tam et al., 2012), estimated that there were 17 million cases of infectious intestinal disease (IID) in 2009. These include illness caused by all sources, not just food. Of these 17 million cases, around 40% (around 7 million) could be attributed to 13 known pathogens. These pathogens included norovirus. The remaining 60% of cases (equivalent to 10 million cases) were unattributed cases. These are cases where the causal pathogen is unknown. Reasons for this include the causal pathogen was not tested for, the test was not sensitive enough to detect the causal pathogen or the pathogen is unknown to science. A second project ‘Costed extension to the second study of infectious intestinal disease in the community’, published in 2014 and known as IID2 extension (Tam, Larose and O’Brien, 2014), estimated that there were 566,000 cases of foodborne disease per year caused by the same 13 known pathogens. Although a proportion of the unattributed cases would also be due to food, no estimate was provided for this in the IID2 extension. New estimates We estimate that there were 2.4 million cases of foodborne disease in the UK in 2018 (95% credible intervals 1.8 million to 3.1 million), with 222,000 GP presentations (95% Cred. Int. 150,000 to 322,000) and 16,400 hospital admissions (95% Cred. Int. 11,200 to 26,000). Of the estimated 2.4 million cases, 0.9 million (95% Cred. Int. 0.7 million to 1.2 million) were from the 13 known pathogens included in the IID2 extension and 1.4 million1 (95% Cred. Int. 1.0 million to 2.0 million) for unattributed cases. Norovirus was the pathogen with the largest estimate with 383,000 cases a year. However, this estimate is within the 95% credible interval for Campylobacter of 127,000 to 571,000. The pathogen with the next highest number of cases was Clostridium perfringens with 85,000 (95% Cred. Int. 32,000 to 225,000). While the methodology used in the NoVAS study does not lend itself to producing credible intervals for cases of norovirus, this does not mean that there is no uncertainty in these estimates. There were a number of parameters used in the NoVAS study which, while based on the best science currently available, were acknowledged to have uncertain values. Sensitivity analysis undertaken as part of the study showed that changes to the values of these parameters could make big differences to the overall estimates. Campylobacter was estimated to have the most GP presentations with 43,000 (95% Cred. Int. 19,000 to 76,000) followed by norovirus with 17,000 (95% Cred. Int. 11,000 to 26,000) and Clostridium perfringens with 13,000 (95% Cred. Int. 6,000 to 29,000). For hospital admissions Campylobacter was estimated to have 3,500 (95% Cred. Int. 1,400 to 7,600), followed by norovirus 2,200 (95% Cred. Int. 1,500 to 3,100) and Salmonella with 2,100 admissions (95% Cred. Int. 400 to 9,900). As many of these credible intervals overlap, any ranking needs to be undertaken with caution. While the estimates provided in this report are for 2018 the methodology described can be applied to future years.
APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles
You might also be interested in the extended bibliographies on the topic 'Sensitivity to Uncertain Threat' for particular source types:
Journal articles Dissertations / Theses Books
We offer discounts on all premium plans for authors whose works are included in thematic literature selections. Contact us to get a unique promo code!

To the bibliography