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Journal articles on the topic 'Seasonal climatology'

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Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 19 February 2022

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1

McDonald, Jessica, Alan Srock, and Joseph Charney. "Development and Application of a Hot-Dry-Windy Index (HDW) Climatology." Atmosphere 9, no. 7 (July 20, 2018): 285. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos9070285.

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In this paper, we describe and analyze a climatology of the Hot-Dry-Windy Index (HDW), with the goal of providing fire-weather forecasters with information about the daily and seasonal variability of the index. The 30-year climatology (1981–2010) was produced using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) for the contiguous United States, using percentiles to show seasonal and geographical variations of HDW contained within the climatology. The method for producing this climatology is documented and the application of the climatology to historical fire events is discussed. We show that the HDW climatology provides insight into near-surface climatic conditions that can be used to identify temperature and humidity trends that correspond to climate classification systems. Furthermore, when used in conjunction with daily traces of HDW values, users can follow trends in HDW and compare those trends with historical values at a given location. More usefully, this climatology adds value to HDW forecasts; by combining the CFSR climatology and a Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble history and forecast, we can produce a single product that provides seasonal, climatological, and short-term context to help determine the appropriate fire-management response to a given HDW value.
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2

Gatebe, C. K., P. D. Tyson, H. Annegarn, S. Piketh, and G. Helas. "A seasonal air transport climatology for Kenya." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 104, no. D12 (June 1, 1999): 14237–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1998jd200103.

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3

Willmott, Cort J., Clinton M. Rowe, and Yale Mintz. "Climatology of the terrestrial seasonal water cycle." Journal of Climatology 5, no. 6 (November 1985): 589–606. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370050602.

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4

Henderson‐Sellers, A., K. McGuffie, and J. G. Cogley. "Seasonal climatology of cloud at resolute (75°N)." Atmosphere-Ocean 23, no. 1 (March 1985): 80–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07055900.1985.9649216.

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5

Moraes, Bergson Cavalcanti, Giordani Rafael Conceição Sodré, Everaldo Barreiros Souza, João Batista Miranda Ribeiro, Luiz Gylvan Meira Filho, Douglas Batista da Silva Ferreira, and Juarez Ventura Oliveira. "Climatology of seasonal rainfall in the eastern Amazon." Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física 8, no. 5 (2015): 1359–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.5935/1984-2295.20150074.

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6

Wallace, Emily, and Alberto Arribas. "Forecasting with Reference to a Specific Climatology." Monthly Weather Review 140, no. 11 (November 1, 2012): 3795–802. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-12-00159.1.

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Abstract Seasonal forecasts are most commonly issued as anomalies with respect to some multiyear reference period. However, different seasonal forecasting centers use different reference periods. This paper shows that for near-surface temperature, precipitation, and mean sea level pressure, over most regions of the world there is evidence that these differences between reference periods should not be ignored, especially when forecasters combine outputs from several prediction systems. Three methods are presented by which reference periods could be adjusted, and it is shown that the differences between the proposed methods are smaller than the errors that result from not correcting for different reference periods.
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7

Horan, Matthew F., and Thomas Reichler. "Modeling Seasonal Sudden Stratospheric Warming Climatology Based on Polar Vortex Statistics." Journal of Climate 30, no. 24 (December 2017): 10101–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0257.1.

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This study investigates the climatological frequency distribution of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). General circulation models (GCMs) tend to produce SSW maxima later in winter than observations, which has been considered as a model deficiency. However, the observed record is short, calling into question the representativeness of the observational record. To study the seasonality of SSWs and the factors behind it, the authors use observations, a long control simulation with a stratosphere resolving GCM, and also a simple statistical model that is based on the climatological seasonal cycle of the polar vortex winds. From the combined analysis, the authors conclude that the late-winter SSW maximum seen in most climate models is realistic and that observations would also have a late-winter SSW maximum if more data were available. The authors identify the seasonally varying strengths of the polar vortex and stratospheric wave driving as the two main factors behind the seasonal SSW distribution. The statistical model also indicates that there exists a continuum of weak polar vortex states and that SSWs simply form the tail of normally distributed stratospheric winds.
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8

Crochemore, Louise, Maria-Helena Ramos, Florian Pappenberger, and Charles Perrin. "Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21, no. 3 (March 14, 2017): 1573–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1573-2017.

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Abstract. Many fields, such as drought-risk assessment or reservoir management, can benefit from long-range streamflow forecasts. Climatology has long been used in long-range streamflow forecasting. Conditioning methods have been proposed to select or weight relevant historical time series from climatology. They are often based on general circulation model (GCM) outputs that are specific to the forecast date due to the initialisation of GCMs on current conditions. This study investigates the impact of conditioning methods on the performance of seasonal streamflow forecasts. Four conditioning statistics based on seasonal forecasts of cumulative precipitation and the standardised precipitation index were used to select relevant traces within historical streamflows and precipitation respectively. This resulted in eight conditioned streamflow forecast scenarios. These scenarios were compared to the climatology of historical streamflows, the ensemble streamflow prediction approach and the streamflow forecasts obtained from ECMWF System 4 precipitation forecasts. The impact of conditioning was assessed in terms of forecast sharpness (spread), reliability, overall performance and low-flow event detection. Results showed that conditioning past observations on seasonal precipitation indices generally improves forecast sharpness, but may reduce reliability, with respect to climatology. Conversely, conditioned ensembles were more reliable but less sharp than streamflow forecasts derived from System 4 precipitation. Forecast attributes from conditioned and unconditioned ensembles are illustrated for a case of drought-risk forecasting: the 2003 drought in France. In the case of low-flow forecasting, conditioning results in ensembles that can better assess weekly deficit volumes and durations over a wider range of lead times.
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9

Iona, Athanasia, Athanasios Theodorou, Sylvain Watelet, Charles Troupin, Jean-Marie Beckers, and Simona Simoncelli. "Mediterranean Sea Hydrographic Atlas: towards optimal data analysis by including time-dependent statistical parameters." Earth System Science Data 10, no. 3 (July 16, 2018): 1281–300. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1281-2018.

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Abstract. The goal of the present work is to provide the scientific community with a high-resolution atlas of temperature and salinity for the Mediterranean Sea based on the most recent datasets available and contribute to the studies of the long-term variability in the region. Data from the pan-European marine data infrastructure SeaDataNet were used, the most complete and, to our best knowledge, best quality dataset for the Mediterranean Sea as of today. The dataset is based on in situ measurements acquired between 1900 and 2015. The atlas consists of horizontal gridded fields produced by the Data-Interpolating Variational Analysis, in which unevenly spatial distributed measurements were interpolated onto a 1∕8° × 1∕8° regular grid on 31 depth levels. Seven different types of climatological fields were prepared with different temporal integration of observations. Monthly, seasonal and annual climatological fields have been calculated for all the available years, seasonal to annual climatologies for overlapping decades and specific periods. The seasonal and decadal time frames have been chosen in accordance with the regional variability and in coherence with atmospheric indices. The decadal and specific-period analysis was not extended to monthly resolution due to the lack of data, especially for the salinity. The Data-Interpolating Variational Analysis software has been used in the Mediterranean region for the SeaDataNet and its predecessor Medar/Medatlas Climatologies. In the present study, a more advanced optimization of the analysis parameters was performed in order to produce more detailed results. The past and present states of the Mediterranean region have been extensively studied and documented in a series of publications. The purpose of this atlas is to contribute to these climatological studies and get a better understanding of the variability on timescales from months to decades and longer. Our gridded fields provide a valuable complementary source of knowledge in regions where measurements are scarce, especially in critical areas of interest such as the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) regions and subregions. The dataset used for the preparation of the atlas is available from https://doi.org/10.12770/8c3bd19b-9687-429c-a232-48b10478581c.The climatologies in netCDF are available at the following sources: annual climatology (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1146976), seasonal climatology for 57 running decades (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1146938), seasonal climatology (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1146953), annual climatology for 57 running decades (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1146957), seasonal climatology for six periods (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1146966), annual climatology for six periods (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1146970), monthly climatology (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1146974).
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10

Allen, Douglas R., and Noboru Nakamura. "A seasonal climatology of effective diffusivity in the stratosphere." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 106, no. D8 (April 1, 2001): 7917–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2000jd900717.

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11

Mao, Zexi, Zhihua Mao, Cédric Jamet, Marc Linderman, Yuntao Wang, and Xiaoyan Chen. "Seasonal Cycles of Phytoplankton Expressed by Sine Equations Using the Daily Climatology from Satellite-Retrieved Chlorophyll-a Concentration (1997–2019) Over Global Ocean." Remote Sensing 12, no. 16 (August 18, 2020): 2662. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs12162662.

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The global coverage of Chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) has been continuously available from ocean color satellite sensors since September 1997 and the Chl-a data (1997–2019) were used to produce a climatological dataset by averaging Chl-a values at same locations and same day of year. The constructed climatology can remarkably reduce the variability of satellite data and clearly exhibit the seasonal cycles, demonstrating that the growth and decay of phytoplankton recurs with similarly seasonal cycles year after year. As the shapes of time series of the climatology exhibit strong periodical change, we wonder whether the seasonality of Chl-a can be expressed by a mathematic equation. Our results show that sinusoid functions are suitable to describe cyclical variations of data in time series and patterns of the daily climatology can be matched by sine equations with parameters of mean, amplitude, phase, and frequency. Three types of sine equations were used to match the climatological Chl-a with Mean Relative Differences (MRD) of 7.1%, 4.5%, and 3.3%, respectively. The sine equation with four sinusoids can modulate the shapes of the fitted values to match various patterns of climatology with small MRD values (less than 5%) in about 90% of global oceans. The fitted values can reflect an overall pattern of seasonal cycles of Chl-a which can be taken as a time series of biomass baseline for describing the state of seasonal variations of phytoplankton. The amplitude images, the spatial patterns of seasonal variations of phytoplankton, can be used to identify the transition zone chlorophyll fronts. The timing of phytoplankton blooms is identified by the biggest peak of the fitted values and used to classify oceans as different bloom seasons, indicating that blooms occur in all four seasons with regional features. In global oceans within latitude domains (48°N–48°S), blooms occupy approximately half of the ocean (50.6%) during boreal winter (December–February) in the northern hemisphere and more than half (58.0%) during austral winter (June–August) in the southern hemisphere. Therefore, the sine equation can be used to match the daily Chl-a climatology and the fitted values can reflect the seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, which can be used to investigate the underlying phenological characteristics.
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12

Cowie, S. M., P. Knippertz, and J. H. Marsham. "A climatology of dust emission events from northern Africa using long-term surface observations." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 14, no. 6 (March 18, 2014): 7425–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-7425-2014.

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Abstract. Long-term (1984–2012) surface observations from 70 stations in the Sahara and Sahel are used to explore the diurnal, seasonal and geographical variations in dust emission events and thresholds. The frequency of dust emission (FDE) is calculated using the present weather codes of SYNOP reports. Thresholds are estimated as the wind speed for which there is a 50% probability of dust emission and are then used to calculate strong wind frequency (SWF) and dust uplift potential (DUP), where the latter is an estimate of the dust-generating power of winds. Stations are grouped into six coherent geographical areas for more in-depth analysis. FDE is highest at stations in Sudan and overall peaks in spring north of 23° N. South of this, where stations are directly influenced by the summer monsoon, the annual cycle in FDE is more variable. Thresholds are highest in northern Algeria, lowest in the latitude band 16–21° N and have greatest seasonal variations in the Sahel. Spatial variability in thresholds partly explain spatial variability in frequency of dust emission events on an annual basis. However, seasonal variations in thresholds for the six grouped areas are not the main control on seasonal variations in FDE. This is demonstrated by highly correlated seasonal cycles of FDE and SWF which are not significantly changed by using a fixed, or seasonally varying, threshold. The likely meteorological mechanisms generating these patterns such as low-level jets and haboobs are discussed.
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13

Cowie, S. M., P. Knippertz, and J. H. Marsham. "A climatology of dust emission events from northern Africa using long-term surface observations." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 14, no. 16 (August 25, 2014): 8579–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-8579-2014.

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Abstract. Long-term (1984–2012) surface observations from 70 stations in the Sahara and Sahel are used to explore the diurnal, seasonal and geographical variations in dust emission events and thresholds. The frequency of dust emission (FDE) is calculated using the present weather codes of SYNOP reports. Thresholds are estimated as the wind speed for which there is a 50% probability of dust emission and are then used to calculate strong wind frequency (SWF) and dust uplift potential (DUP), where the latter is an estimate of the dust-generating power of winds. Stations are grouped into six coherent geographical areas for more in-depth analysis. FDE is highest at stations in Sudan and overall peaks in spring north of 23° N. South of this, where stations are directly influenced by the summer monsoon, the annual cycle in FDE is more variable. Thresholds are highest in northern Algeria, lowest in the latitude band 16–21° N and have greatest seasonal variations in the Sahel. Spatial variability in thresholds partly explain spatial variability in frequency of dust emission events on an annual basis. However, seasonal variations in thresholds for the six grouped areas are not the main control on seasonal variations in FDE. This is demonstrated by highly correlated seasonal cycles of FDE and SWF which are not significantly changed by using a fixed, or seasonally varying, threshold. The likely meteorological mechanisms generating these patterns such as low-level jets and haboobs are discussed.
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14

Krakauer, Nir Y., Michael D. Grossberg, Irina Gladkova, and Hannah Aizenman. "Information Content of Seasonal Forecasts in a Changing Climate." Advances in Meteorology 2013 (2013): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/480210.

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We study the potential value to stakeholders of probabilistic long-term forecasts, as quantified by the mean information gain of the forecast compared to climatology. We use as a case study the USA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of 3-month temperature and precipitation anomalies made at 0.5-month lead time since 1995. Mean information gain was positive but low (about 2% and 0.5% of the maximum possible for temperature and precipitation forecasts, resp.) and has not increased over time. Information-based skill scores showed similar patterns to other, non-information-based, skill scores commonly used for evaluating seasonal forecasts but tended to be smaller, suggesting that information gain is a particularly stringent measure of forecast quality. We also present a new decomposition of forecast information gain into Confidence, Forecast Miscalibration, and Climatology Miscalibration components. Based on this decomposition, the CPC forecasts for temperature are on average underconfident while the precipitation forecasts are overconfident. We apply a probabilistic trend extrapolation method to provide an improved reference seasonal forecast, compared to the current CPC procedure which uses climatology from a recent 30-year period. We show that combining the CPC forecast with the probabilistic trend extrapolation more than doubles the mean information gain, providing one simple avenue for increasing forecast skill.
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15

Yilmaz, M. Tugrul, and Timothy DelSole. "Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation Using Joint Probabilities." Journal of Hydrometeorology 11, no. 2 (April 1, 2010): 533–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jhm1187.1.

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Abstract This paper tests whether seasonal mean precipitation is predictable using a new method that estimates and analyzes joint probabilities. The new estimation method is to partition the globe into boxes, pool all data within the box to estimate a single joint probability of precipitation for two consecutive seasons, and then apply the resulting joint probability to individual pixels in the box. Pooling data in this way allows joint probabilities to be estimated in relatively small sample sizes; however, the new method assumes that the transition probabilities of pixels in a box are homogeneous and stationary. Joint probabilities are estimated from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project dataset in 21 land boxes and 5 ocean boxes during the period 1979–2008. The state of precipitation is specified by dry, wet, or normal terciles of the local climatological distribution. Predictability is quantified by mutual information, which is a fundamental measure of predictability that allows for nonlinear dependencies, and is tested using bootstrap methods. Predictability was verified by constructing probabilistic and quantitative forecasts directly from the transition probabilities and showing that they have superior cross-validated skills than forecasts based on climatology, persistence, or random selection. Spring was found to be the most predictable season, whereas summer was the least predictable season. Analysis of joint probabilities reveals that although the probabilities are close to climatology, the predictability of precipitation arises from a slight tendency of the state to persist from one season to the next, or if a transition occurs, then it is more often from one extreme to normal than from one extreme to the other.
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16

Loveless, Michelle, E. Eva Borbas, Robert Knuteson, Kerry Cawse-Nicholson, Glynn Hulley, and Simon Hook. "Climatology of the Combined ASTER MODIS Emissivity over Land (CAMEL) Version 2." Remote Sensing 13, no. 1 (December 31, 2020): 111. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13010111.

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The Combined ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Emissivity over Land (CAMEL) Version 2 (V002) has been available since March 2019 from the NASA LP DAAC (Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center) and provides global, monthly infrared land surface emissivity and uncertainty at 0.05 degrees (~5 km) resolution. A climatology of the CAMEL V002 product is now available at the same spatial, temporal, and spectral resolution, covering the CAMEL record from 2000 to 2016. Characterization of the climatology over case sites and IGBP (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme) land cover categories shows the climatology is a stable representation of the monthly CAMEL emissivity. Time series of the monthly CAMEL V002 product show realistic seasonal changes but also reveal subtle artifacts known to be from calibration and processing errors in the MODIS MxD11 emissivity. The use of the CAMEL V002 climatology mitigates many of these time dependent errors by providing an emissivity estimate which represents the complete 16-year record. The CAMEL V002 climatology’s integration into RTTOV (Radiative Transfer for TOVS) v12 is demonstrated through the simulation of IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) radiances. Improved stability in CAMEL Version 3 is expected in the future with the incorporation of the new MxD21 and VIIRS VNP21 emissivity products in MODIS Collection 6.1.
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17

Evan, Amato T., and Suzana J. Camargo. "A Climatology of Arabian Sea Cyclonic Storms." Journal of Climate 24, no. 1 (January 1, 2011): 140–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3611.1.

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Abstract On average 1–2 tropical cyclones form over the Arabian Sea each year, and few of these storms are intense enough to be classified as very severe or super cyclonic storms. As such, few studies have explicitly identified the seasonal to interannual changes in environmental conditions that are associated with Arabian Sea tropical cyclogenesis. However, over the last 30 yr several intense Arabian storms did form and make landfall, with large impacts, which motivates this new study of the basin. The conclusions of earlier studies are visited by utilizing modern observational and reanalysis data to identify the large-scale features associated with Arabian tropical cyclone variability on seasonal time scales. Then year-to-year changes in environmental conditions that are related to interannual variability in Arabian storms during the pre- and postmonsoon periods are elucidated. The analysis of the relationship between large-scale environmental variables and seasonal storm frequency supports conclusions from work completed more than 40 yr prior. Investigation of the year-to-year changes in premonsoon storm frequency suggests that May (June) storms are associated with an early (late) onset of the southwest monsoon. The findings also demonstrate that November cyclones (the month when the majority of postmonsoon cyclogenesis occurs) primarily form during periods when the Bay of Bengal experiences a broad region of high sea level pressure, implying that November storms form in either the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal but not in both during the same year. Finally, the analysis of changes in a genesis potential index suggests that long-term variability in the potential for a storm to form is dictated by changes in midlevel moisture.
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18

McGregor, Glenn. "Climatology in support of climate risk management." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 39, no. 4 (April 26, 2015): 536–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0309133315578941.

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Climate risk management has emerged over the last decade as a distinct area of activity within the wider field of climatology. Its focus is on integrating climate and non-climate information in order to enhance the decision-making process in a wide range of climate-sensitive sectors of society, the economy and the environment. Given the burgeoning pure and applied climate science literature that addresses a range of climate risks, the purpose of this progress report is to provide an overview of recent developments in the field of climatology that may contribute to the risk assessment component of climate risk management. Data rescue and climate database construction, hurricanes and droughts as examples of extreme climate events and seasonal climate forecasting are focused on in this report and are privileged over other topics because of either their fundamental importance for establishing event probability or scale of societal impact. The review of the literature finds that historical data rescue, climate reconstruction and the compilation of climate data bases has assisted immensely in understanding past climate events and increasing the information base for managing climate risk. Advances in the scientific understanding of the causes and the characterization of hurricanes and droughts stand to benefit the management of these two extreme events while work focused on unravelling the nature of ocean–atmosphere interactions and associated climate anomalies at the seasonal timescale has provided the basis for the possible seasonal forecasting of a range of climate events. The report also acknowledges that despite the potential of climate information to assist with managing climate risk, its uptake by decision makers should not be automatically assumed by the climatological community.
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19

Marcos, Raül, Marco Turco, Joaquín Bedía, Maria Carmen Llasat, and Antonello Provenzale. "Seasonal predictability of summer fires in a Mediterranean environment." International Journal of Wildland Fire 24, no. 8 (2015): 1076. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wf15079.

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In this study we explore the seasonal predictability of summer wildfires in a Mediterranean region (north-eastern Spain), developing a multiple linear regression model with antecedent and current-summer drought indices (Standardised Precipitation Index; and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index). This model is based on the assumption that large summer fires in Mediterranean environments are favoured by current-summer drought (proxy for the climatic factors that affect fuel flammability) and by antecedent wet conditions (proxies for the climatic factors influencing fine fuel availability and connectivity). We test three forecast systems based on (i) seasonal European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System-4 forecasts; (ii) persistence and (iii) climatology. These approaches are evaluated through a leave-one-out cross-validation over the period 1983–2012. The climatology forecast, which considers only antecedent wet or dry conditions with a time lag of 2 years, shows some amount of skill in simulating above- or below-normal summer fire activity. ECMWF System-4 proves to be of limited added value with respect to the climatology forecast. Finally, the persistence forecast, which is driven by antecedent conditions and drought conditions just before the start of the fire season, allows more satisfactory results (correlation of 0.49). The results suggest that long-term forecasts of above-normal burned area are feasible in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain), information that could be potentially applied also to other Mediterranean-type regions.
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Naakka, Tuomas, Tiina Nygård, and Timo Vihma. "Arctic Humidity Inversions: Climatology and Processes." Journal of Climate 31, no. 10 (April 12, 2018): 3765–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0497.1.

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Abstract The occurrence and characteristics of Arctic specific humidity inversions (SHIs) were examined on the basis of two reanalyses (ERA-Interim and JRA-55) and radiosonde sounding data from 2003 to 2014. Based on physical properties, the SHIs were divided into two main categories: SHIs below and above the 800-hPa level. Above the 800-hPa level, SHIs occurred simultaneously with relative humidity inversions and without the presence of a temperature inversion; these SHIs were probably formed when a moist air mass was advected over a dry air mass. SHIs below the 800-hPa level occurred simultaneously with temperature inversions in conditions of high relative humidity, which suggests that condensation had an important role in SHI formation. Below the 800-hPa level, SHI occurrence had a large seasonal and spatial variation, which depended on the surface heat budget. In winter, most SHIs were formed because of surface radiative cooling, and the occurrence of SHIs was high (even exceeding 90% of the time) on continents and over the ice-covered Arctic Ocean. In summer, the occurrence of SHIs was highest (70%–90%) over the coastal Arctic Ocean, where SHIs were generated by warm and moist air advection over a cold sea surface. In the reanalyses, the strongest SHIs occurred in summer over the Arctic Ocean. The comparisons between radiosonde soundings and the reanalyses showed that the main features of the seasonal and spatial variation of SHI occurrence and SHI strength were well represented in the reanalyses, but SHI strength was underestimated.
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Lehmann, Paul. "A seasonal climatology of the Melbourne 1965-1975 ozonesonde record." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 66, no. 3 (2016): 262. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/es16018.

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A seasonal climatology of the 1965-1975 Melbourne ozonesonde ozone profile record is presented, spanning a period when minimal stratospheric ozone chemical depletion existed and prior to adequate satellite ozone profiling. Results are presented as monthly isentropic weighted means of ozone mixing ratio and partial pressure, with associated uncertainties, plotted against potential temperature and altitude. Corrections for pump inefficiency and referencing to the current ozonesonde type are included. The general seasonal and altitudinal features of the results are consistent with our current understanding of ozone variations in the southern mid-latitudes. These results are of value to atmospheric chemical and climate change models.
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Chen, Fei, and Hans von Storch. "Trends and Variability of North Pacific Polar Lows." Advances in Meteorology 2013 (2013): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/170387.

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The 6-hourly 1948–2010 NCEP 1 reanalyses have been dynamically downscaled for the region of the North Pacific. With a detecting-and-tracking algorithm, the climatology of North Pacific Polar Lows has been constructed. This derived climatology is consistent with the limited observational evidence in terms of frequency and spatial distribution. The climatology exhibits strong year-to-year variability but weak decadal variability and a small positive trend. A canonical correlation analysis describes the conditioning of the formation of Polar Lows by characteristic seasonal mean flow regimes, which favor, or limit, cold air outbreaks and upper air troughs.
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23

Dowdy, A., and Y. Kuleshov. "Climatology of lightning activity in Australia: spatial and seasonal variability." Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 64, no. 2 (June 2014): 103–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.22499/2.6402.002.

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Lehmann, Paul. "A seasonal climatology of the Melbourne 1965-1975 ozonesonde record." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science 66, no. 3 (September 30, 2016): 262–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.22499/3.6003.00002.

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Lehmann, Paul. "A seasonal climatology of the Melbourne 1965-1975 ozonesonde record." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science 66, no. 03 (September 30, 2016): 262–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.22499/3.6603.00002.

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Lehmann, Paul. "A seasonal climatology of the Melbourne 1965-1975 ozonesonde record." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science 66, no. 3 (2016): 262–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.22499/3.6603.002.

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Yuchechen, Adrián E., S. Gabriela Lakkis, and Pablo O. Canziani. "A seasonal climatology of UV reflectivity for southern South America." International Journal of Remote Sensing 38, sup1 (October 16, 2017): 28–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2017.1388935.

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Martinez, Carlos, Lisa Goddard, Yochanan Kushnir, and Mingfang Ting. "Seasonal climatology and dynamical mechanisms of rainfall in the Caribbean." Climate Dynamics 53, no. 1-2 (January 14, 2019): 825–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04616-4.

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Burgos-Cuevas, Andrea, David K. Adams, Jorge Luis García-Franco, and Angel Ruiz-Angulo. "A Seasonal Climatology of the Mexico City Atmospheric Boundary Layer." Boundary-Layer Meteorology 180, no. 1 (April 6, 2021): 131–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10546-021-00615-3.

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Smith, Craig M., Darko Koračin, and Kristian Horvath. "Day-Ahead Predictability of Complex Terrain Flows for Wind Resource Production: A Case Study of the Washoe Zephyr." Weather and Forecasting 29, no. 6 (December 1, 2014): 1343–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-14-00021.1.

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Abstract A detailed description of the meteorological conditions of the Washoe Valley (Nevada) and simulations that examine the predictability of the westerly high wind event known as the Washoe Zephyr are presented. Numerical weather model prediction skill is computed for day-ahead (24–48 h) forecasts of wind speed at a meteorological tower on the Virginia Hills range relative to a persistence forecast based on a seasonal climatology constructed of hourly mean observations. The model predictions are shown to be more skillful than a climatology based on seasonal and hourly means during winter and less skillful than the seasonal-hourly climatology (SHC) during summer. Overall skill of the forecasted winds tends to increase with finer horizontal grid spacing. Phase errors compose the largest component of the error decomposition and large phase errors are associated with the onset and decay of the diurnally forced Washoe Zephyr during summer and synoptically forced high wind events and valley rotors during winter. The correlation coefficient between forecasts and observations for all forecast horizontal grid spacings considered is shown to depend roughly linearly on the ratio of the integrated power spectral density in the synoptic band to the integrated power spectral density in the combined diurnal and subdiurnal band.
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Block, P. "Tailoring seasonal climate forecasts for hydropower operations." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15, no. 4 (April 29, 2011): 1355–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1355-2011.

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Abstract. Integration of seasonal precipitation forecasts into water resources operations and planning is practically nonexistent, even in regions of scarcity. This is often attributable to water manager's tendency to act in a risk averse manner, preferring to avoid consequences of poor forecasts, at the expense of unrealized benefits. Convincing demonstrations of forecast value are therefore desirable to support assimilation into practice. A dynamically linked system, including forecast, rainfall-runoff, and hydropower models, is applied to the upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia to compare benefits and reliability generated by actual forecasts against a climatology-based approach, commonly practiced in most water resources systems. Processing one hundred decadal sequences demonstrates superior forecast-based benefits in 68 cases, a respectable advancement, however benefits in a few forecast-based sequences are noticeably low, likely to dissuade manager's adoption. A hydropower sensitivity test reveals a propensity toward poor-decision making when forecasts over-predict wet conditions. Tailoring the precipitation forecast to highlight critical dry forecasts minimizes this inclination, resulting in 97% of the sequences favoring the forecast-based approach. Considering managerial risk preferences for the system, even risk-averse actions, if coupled with forecasts, exhibit superior benefits and reliability compared with risk-taking tendencies conditioned on climatology.
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Manrique-Suñén, Andrea, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Verónica Torralba, Nicola Cortesi, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes. "Choices in the Verification of S2S Forecasts and Their Implications for Climate Services." Monthly Weather Review 148, no. 10 (October 1, 2020): 3995–4008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-20-0067.1.

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AbstractSubseasonal predictions bridge the gap between medium-range weather forecasts and seasonal climate predictions. This time scale is crucial for operations and planning in many sectors such as energy and agriculture. For users to trust these predictions and efficiently make use of them in decision-making, the quality of predicted near-surface parameters needs to be systematically assessed. However, the method to follow in a probabilistic evaluation of subseasonal predictions is not trivial. This study aims to offer an illustration of the impact that the verification setup might have on the calculation of the skill scores, thus providing some guidelines for subseasonal forecast evaluation. For this, several forecast verification setups to calculate the fair ranked probability skill score for tercile categories have been designed. These setups use different number of samples to compute the fair RPSS as well as different ways to define the climatology, characterized by different time periods to average (week or month). These setups have been tested by evaluating 2-m temperature in ECMWF-Ext-ENS 20-yr hindcasts for all of the initializations in 2016 against the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Then, the implications on skill score values of each of the setups are analyzed. Results show that to obtain a robust skill score several start dates need to be employed. It is also shown that a constant monthly climatology over each calendar month may introduce spurious skill score associated with the seasonal cycle. A weekly climatology bears similar results to a monthly running-window climatology; however, the latter provides a better reference climatology when bias adjustment is applied.
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Lee, Chia-Ying, Suzana J. Camargo, Fréderic Vitart, Adam H. Sobel, and Michael K. Tippett. "Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Genesis Prediction and MJO in the S2S Dataset." Weather and Forecasting 33, no. 4 (July 3, 2018): 967–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-17-0165.1.

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Abstract Subseasonal probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is investigated here using models from the Seasonal to Subseasonal (S2S) Prediction dataset. Forecasts are produced for basin-wide TC occurrence at weekly temporal resolution. Forecast skill is measured using the Brier skill score relative to a seasonal climatology that varies monthly through the TC season. Skill depends on models’ characteristics, lead time, and ensemble prediction design. Most models show skill for week 1 (days 1–7), the period when initialization is important. Among the six S2S models examined here, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model has the best performance, with skill in the Atlantic, western North Pacific, eastern North Pacific, and South Pacific at week 2. Similarly, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) model is skillful in the western North Pacific, South Pacific, and across northern Australia at week 2. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) modulates observed TC genesis, and there is a relationship, across models and lead times, between models’ skill scores and their ability to accurately represent the MJO and the MJO–TC relation. Additionally, a model’s TC climatology also influences its performance in subseasonal prediction. The dependence of the skill score on the simulated climatology, MJO, and MJO–TC relationship, however, varies from one basin to another. Skill scores increase with the ensemble size, as found in previous weather and seasonal prediction studies.
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Risien, Craig M., and Dudley B. Chelton. "A Global Climatology of Surface Wind and Wind Stress Fields from Eight Years of QuikSCAT Scatterometer Data." Journal of Physical Oceanography 38, no. 11 (November 1, 2008): 2379–413. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jpo3881.1.

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Abstract Global seasonal cycles of the wind and wind stress fields estimated from the 8-yr record (September 1999–August 2007) of wind measurements by the NASA Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) are presented. While this atlas, referred to here as the Scatterometer Climatology of Ocean Winds (SCOW), consists of 12 variables, the focus here is on the wind stress and wind stress derivative (curl and divergence) fields. SCOW seasonal cycles are compared with seasonal cycles estimated from NCEP–NCAR reanalysis wind fields. These comparisons show that the SCOW atlas is able to capture small-scale features that are dynamically important to both the ocean and the atmosphere but are not resolved in other observationally based wind atlases or in NCEP–NCAR reanalysis fields. This is particularly true of the wind stress derivative fields in which topographic, SST gradient, and ocean current influences on surface winds are plainly visible. Discussions of five example regions are presented to highlight these seasonally recurring small-scale features. It is expected that the SCOW atlas will prove valuable to researchers conducting hydrographic and modeling studies.
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Eerme, K., U. Veismann, and R. Koppel. "Estonian total ozone climatology." Annales Geophysicae 20, no. 2 (February 28, 2002): 247–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/angeo-20-247-2002.

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Abstract. The climatological characteristics of total ozone over Estonia based on the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data are discussed. The mean annual cycle during 1979–2000 for the site at 58.3° N and 26.5° E is compiled. The available ground-level data interpolated before TOMS, have been used for trend detection. During the last two decades, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) corrected systematic decrease of total ozone from February–April was 3 ± 2.6% per decade. Before 1980, a spring decrease was not detectable. No decreasing trend was found in either the late autumn ozone minimum or in the summer total ozone. The QBO related signal in the spring total ozone has an amplitude of ± 20 DU and phase lag of 20 months. Between 1987–1992, the lagged covariance between the Singapore wind and the studied total ozone was weak. The spring (April–May) and summer (June–August) total ozone have the best correlation (coefficient 0.7) in the yearly cycle. The correlation between the May and August total ozone is higher than the one between the other summer months. Seasonal power spectra of the total ozone variance show preferred periods with an over 95% significance level. Since 1986, during the winter/spring, the contribution period of 32 days prevails instead of the earlier dominating 26 days. The spectral densities of the periods from 4 days to 2 weeks exhibit high interannual variability.Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (middle atmosphere – composition and chemistry; volcanic effects) – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology)
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36

Taszarek, Mateusz, and Harold E. Brooks. "Tornado Climatology of Poland." Monthly Weather Review 143, no. 3 (February 27, 2015): 702–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-14-00185.1.

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Abstract Very few studies on the occurrence of tornadoes in Poland have been performed and, therefore, their temporal and spatial variability have not been well understood. This article describes an updated climatology of tornadoes in Poland and the major problems related to the database. In this study, the results of an investigation of tornado occurrence in a 100-yr historical record (1899–1998) and a more recent 15-yr observational dataset (1999–2013) are presented. A total of 269 tornado cases derived from the European Severe Weather Database are used in the analysis. The cases are divided according to their strength on the F scale with weak tornadoes (unrated/F0/F1; 169 cases), significant tornadoes (F2/F3/F4; 66 cases), and waterspouts (34 cases). The tornado season extends from May to September (84% of all cases) with the seasonal peak for tornadoes occurring over land in July (23% of all land cases) and waterspouts in August (50% of all waterspouts). On average 8–14 tornadoes (including 2–3 waterspouts) with 2 strong tornadoes occur each year and 1 violent one occurs every 12–19 years. The maximum daily probability for weak and significant tornadoes occurs between 1500 and 1800 UTC while it occurs between 0900 and 1200 UTC for waterspouts. Tornadoes over land are most likely to occur in the south-central part of the country known as the “Polish Tornado Alley.” Cases of strong, and even violent, tornadoes that caused deaths indicate that the possibility of a large-fatality tornado in Poland cannot be ignored.
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Graybeal, Daniel Y., and Daniel J. Leathers. "Snowmelt-Related Flood Risk in Appalachia: First Estimates from a Historical Snow Climatology." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 45, no. 1 (January 1, 2006): 178–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jam2330.1.

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Abstract A first attempt has been made toward quantifying the risk of snowmelt-related flooding in the central and southern Appalachian Mountains of the United States (from 35° to 42°N). In the last decade, two major events occurred within the region, prompting this study. Snowfall and snow depth data were collected from the cooperative observer network, quality controlled, and summarized at seasonal resolution (December–March). For establishing regional patterns, the period of 1971–2000 was selected. For testing fits of candidate probability distributions, and for focusing on the sparsely sampled higher elevations, this criterion was relaxed to include as many data from the mid- to late century as were reasonably admissible. Results indicate that the two-parameter Gumbel distribution fit best both the seasonal total snowfall and seasonal maximum snow depth. That distribution was then used to map return periods associated with critical seasonal snowfall and maximum snow depth masses. Seasonal snowfall amounts linked to a role for snowmelt in flooding were found to occur at return periods of from 2–5 yr in Pennsylvania and West Virginia to 10–200 yr in North Carolina. More generally, at elevations of at least 600 m throughout the region, return periods of 10–25 yr were estimated for critical levels of two flood-related criteria: seasonal total snowfall and maximum snow depth. In addition to providing valuable climatological information to aid forecasters and analysts, the results also support the need for further work toward understanding the role of snow in Appalachian floods.
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Grooß, J. U., and James M. Russell. "Technical note: A stratospheric climatology for O<sub>3</sub>, H<sub>2</sub>O, CH<sub>4</sub>, NO<sub>x</sub>, HCl and HF derived from HALOE measurements." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 5, no. 10 (October 25, 2005): 2797–807. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-5-2797-2005.

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Abstract. The Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) has observed mixing ratios of important trace species in the stratosphere for more than a decade since 1991. Here we present a climatology for the stratosphere compiled from HALOE O3, H2O, CH4, NOx, HCl, and HF data for the period from 1991 to 2002. In this approach, the data are averaged over equivalent latitude instead of latitude in order to correctly reproduce the gradients at the transport barriers like the polar vortex edge. The climatology is compiled for 5 degree equivalent latitude bins. Seasonal dependence is taken into account by choosing intervals of one month. The climatology is available as an electronic supplement.
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Grooß, J. U., and J. M. Russell. "Technical note: A stratospheric climatology for O<sub>3</sub>, H<sub>2</sub>O and CH<sub>4</sub> derived from HALOE measurements." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 5, no. 3 (May 12, 2005): 2973–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-5-2973-2005.

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Abstract. The Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on board the Upper Atmosphere research satellite (UARS) has observed mixing ratios of important trace species in the stratosphere over more than a decade since 1991. Here we present a climatology for the stratosphere compiled from the HALOE data for ozone, H2O and CH4 for the period from 1991 to 2002. In this approach, the data are averaged over equivalent latitude instead of latitude in order to correctly reproduce the gradients at the transport barriers like the polar vortex edge. The climatology is compiled for 5 degree equivalent latitude bins. The seasonal dependence is taken into account by choosing intervals of one month. The climatology is available as an electronic supplement.
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Chang, Pao-Liang, Pin-Fang Lin, Ben Jong-Dao Jou, and Jian Zhang. "An Application of Reflectivity Climatology in Constructing Radar Hybrid Scans over Complex Terrain." Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 26, no. 7 (July 1, 2009): 1315–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jtecha1162.1.

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Abstract Three years’ worth of radar reflectivity data from four radars in an area of complex terrain (Taiwan) from 2005 to 2007 were analyzed and a reflectivity climatology was developed. The climatology was applied in the construction of new hybrid scans to minimize the impacts of ground clutter and beam blockages. The reflectivity climatology showed significant seasonal variations and captured distributions of ground/sea clutters, beam blockages, and anomalous propagations in addition to precipitation systems in the radar domains. By comparing the reflectivity climatology with gauge observations, it was found that 15 (20) dBZ was a good approximation for rain/no-rain segregation during cool (warm) seasons. Comparisons between the standard (i.e., based on terrain and scan strategies only with the assumption of standard propagations) and nonstandard (i.e., standard plus the clutter and blockage mitigation using the reflectivity climatology) hybrid scans showed that the former did not accurately reflect the clutter and blockage distributions in the real atmosphere. The application of the reflectivity climatology was shown to significantly reduce the impacts of clutter and blockages and provided improved radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) in the complex terrain.
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Sheode, N., B. M. Sinnhuber, A. Rozanov, and J. P. Burrows. "Towards a climatology of stratospheric bromine monoxide from SCIAMACHY limb observations." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 6, no. 4 (July 13, 2006): 6431–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-6-6431-2006.

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Abstract. Retrievals of stratospheric bromine monoxide (BrO) profiles from two years of limb measurements from the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) instrument onboard ENVISAT are analysed and a global climatology of stratospheric BrO is prepared. A comparison of the SCIAMACHY BrO retrievals with a set of four balloon-borne BrO profiles shows mean relative differences in the altitude range from 18 to 30 km between −42%. The SCIAMACHY BrO observations provide for the first time a picture of the seasonal variation of stratospheric BrO on a global scale. At mid-latitudes of both hemispheres BrO shows a strong seasonal cycle with a maximum in winter and a minimum in summer. The seasonal variation of BrO is closely correlated with changes in nitrogen dioxide (NO2), confirming our present understanding of gas phase bromine chemistry. Using the SCIAMACHY BrO observations together with the calculated bromine partitioning from a photochemical model constrained by the SCIAMACHY NO2 observations, the total stratospheric bromine loading is estimated to be 18.5±4 pptv. This indicates a contribution of about 3.5±4 pptv from short lived bromine species in addition to methyl bromide and the halons.
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42

E. Naimie, Christopher, Cheryl Ann Blain, and Daniel R. Lynch. "Seasonal mean circulation in the Yellow Sea — a model-generated climatology." Continental Shelf Research 21, no. 6-7 (April 2001): 667–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0278-4343(00)00102-3.

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Lau, K.-M., G. J. Yang, and S. H. Shen. "Seasonal and Intraseasonal Climatology of Summer Monsoon Rainfall over Eeat Asia." Monthly Weather Review 116, no. 1 (January 1988): 18–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1988)116<0018:saicos>2.0.co;2.

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Nandintsetseg, Banzragch, and Masato Shinoda. "Seasonal change of soil moisture in Mongolia: its climatology and modelling." International Journal of Climatology 31, no. 8 (March 30, 2010): 1143–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2134.

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45

Kelley, Colin, Mingfang Ting, Richard Seager, and Yochanan Kushnir. "Mediterranean precipitation climatology, seasonal cycle, and trend as simulated by CMIP5." Geophysical Research Letters 39, no. 21 (November 2012): n/a. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012gl053416.

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46

Hatzaki, Maria, Helena A. Flocas, Ian Simmonds, John Kouroutzoglou, Kevin Keay, and Irina Rudeva. "Seasonal Aspects of an Objective Climatology of Anticyclones Affecting the Mediterranean." Journal of Climate 27, no. 24 (December 10, 2014): 9272–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00186.1.

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Abstract An objective climatology of anticyclones over the greater Mediterranean region is presented based on the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) for a 34-yr period (1979–2012) and the Melbourne University automatic identification and tracking algorithm. The scheme’s robustness and reliability for the transient extratropical propagation of anticyclones, with the appropriate choices of parameter settings, has been established and the results obtained here present new research perspectives on anticyclonic activity affecting the Mediterranean. Properties of Mediterranean anticyclones, such as frequency, generation and dissipation, movement, scale, and depth are investigated. The highest frequency of anticyclones is found over continental areas, while the highest maritime frequency occurs over closed basins exhibiting also maxima of anticyclogenesis. There is a significant seasonality in system density and anticyclogenesis maxima, this being associated with the seasonal variations of the larger-scale atmospheric circulation that affect the greater Mediterranean region.
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Lynch, Daniel R., Keston W. Smith, and Bronwyn Cahill. "Seasonal mean circulation on the Irish shelf—a model-generated climatology." Continental Shelf Research 24, no. 18 (December 2004): 2215–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2004.07.022.

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48

Barriopedro, David, Ricardo García-Herrera, Anthony R. Lupo, and Emiliano Hernández. "A Climatology of Northern Hemisphere Blocking." Journal of Climate 19, no. 6 (March 15, 2006): 1042–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3678.1.

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Abstract In this paper a 55-yr (1948–2002) Northern Hemisphere blocking climatology is presented. Traditional blocking indices and methodologies are revised and a new blocking detection method is designed. This algorithm detects blocked flows and provides for a better characterization of blocking events with additional information on blocking parameters such as the location of the blocking center, the intensity, and extension. Additionally, a new tracking procedure has been incorporated following simultaneously the individual evolution of blocked flows and identifying coherently persistent blocked patterns. Using this method, the longest known Northern Hemisphere blocking climatology is obtained and compared with previous studies. A new regional classification into four independent blocking sectors has been obtained based on the seasonally preferred regions of blocking formation: Atlantic (ATL), European (EUR), West Pacific (WPA), and East Pacific (EPA). Global and regional blocking characteristics have been described, examining their variability from the seasonal to interdecadal scales. The global long-term blocking series in the North Hemisphere showed a significant trend toward weaker and less persistent events, as well as regional increases (decreases) in blocking frequency over the WPA (ATL and EUR) sector. The influence of teleconnection patterns (TCPs) on blocking parameters is also explored, being confined essentially to wintertime, except in the WPA sector. Additionally, regional blocking parameters, especially frequency and duration, are sensitive to regional TCPs, supporting the regional classification obtained in this paper. The ENSO-related blocking variability is evident in blocking intensities and preferred locations but not in frequency. Finally, the dynamical connection between blocking occurrence and regional TCPs is examined through the conceptual model proposed by Charney and DeVore. Observational evidence of a dynamical link between the asymmetrical temperature distributions induced by TCPs and blocking variability is provided with a distinctive contrast “warm ocean/cold land” pattern favoring the blocking occurrence in winter. However, the conceptual model is not coherent in the WPA sector, suggesting different blocking mechanisms operating in this sector.
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Kumar, Vinay, and T. N. Krishnamurti. "Improved Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts for the Asian Monsoon Using 16 Atmosphere–Ocean Coupled Models. Part I: Climatology." Journal of Climate 25, no. 1 (January 1, 2012): 39–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli4125.1.

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Abstract The goal of this study is to utilize several recent developments on rainfall data collection, downscaling of available climate models, training and forecasts from such models within the framework of a multimodel superensemble, and first a detailed examination of the seasonal climatology. The unique aspect of this study is that it became possible to use the forecast results from as many as 16 state-of-the-art coupled climate models. A downscaling component, with respect to observed rainfall estimates, uses a very dense Asian rain gauge network. This feature enables the forecasts of each model to be bias corrected to a common 25-km resolution. The downscaling statistics for each model, at each grid location, are developed during a training phase of the model forecasts. This is done wherever the observed rainfall estimates are available. In the “forecast phase,” the forecasts from all of the member models use the downscaling coefficients of the “training phase.” The downscaling and the extraction of the superensemble weights are done during the training phase. This makes use of the cross-validation principle. This means that the season to be forecasted is left out of the entire forecast dataset. Thus all of the statistics for downscaling and the superensemble construction are done separately for the forecasts of each season for all the years. The forecast phase is the season that is being forecast, where the aforementioned statistics are deployed for constructing the final downscaled superensemble. These forecasts are next used for the construction of a multimodel superensemble. The geographical distributions of the downscaling coefficients provide a first look at the systematic errors of the member model forecasts. This combination of multimodels, the vast rain gauge dataset, the downscaling, and the superensemble provides a major improvement for the rainfall climatology and anomalies for the forecast phase. One of the main results of this paper is on the improvement of rainfall climatology of the member models. The downscaled multimodel superensemble shows a correlation of nearly 1.0 with respect to the observed climatology. This high skill is important for addressing the rainfall anomaly forecasts, which are defined in terms of departures from the observed (rather than a model based) climatology. This first part of the paper provides a description of the member models, the length of the training and forecast phases, the sensitivity of results as the numbers of forecast models are increased, and the skills of the downscaled climatology forecasts.
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Liu, J., D. W. Tarasick, V. E. Fioletov, C. McLinden, T. Zhao, S. Gong, C. Sioris, J. J. Jin, G. Liu, and O. Moeini. "A global ozone climatology from ozone soundings via trajectory mapping: a stratospheric perspective." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13, no. 22 (November 25, 2013): 11441–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11441-2013.

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Abstract. This study explores a domain-filling trajectory approach to generate a global ozone climatology from relatively sparse ozonesonde data. Global ozone soundings comprising 51 898 profiles at 116 stations over 44 yr (1965–2008) are used, from which forward and backward trajectories are calculated from meteorological reanalysis data to map ozone measurements to other locations and so fill in the spatial domain. The resulting global ozone climatology is archived monthly for five decades from the 1960s to the 2000s on a grid of 5° × 5° × 1 km (latitude, longitude, and altitude), from the surface to 26 km altitude. It is also archived yearly for the same period. The climatology is validated at 20 selected ozonesonde stations by comparing the actual ozone sounding profile with that derived through trajectory mapping of ozone sounding data from all stations except the one being compared. The two sets of profiles are in good agreement, both overall with correlation coefficient r = 0.991 and root mean square (RMS) of 224 ppbv and individually with r from 0.975 to 0.998 and RMS from 87 to 482 ppbv. The ozone climatology is also compared with two sets of satellite data from the Satellite Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) and the Optical Spectrography and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS). The ozone climatology compares well with SAGE and OSIRIS data in both seasonal and zonal means. The mean differences are generally quite small, with maximum differences of 20% above 15 km. The agreement is better in the Northern Hemisphere, where there are more ozonesonde stations, than in the Southern Hemisphere; it is also better in the middle and high latitudes than in the tropics where reanalysis winds are less accurate. This ozone climatology captures known features in the stratosphere as well as seasonal and decadal variations of these features. The climatology clearly shows the depletion of ozone from the 1970s to the mid 1990s and ozone increases in the 2000s in the lower stratosphere. When this climatology is used as the upper boundary condition in an Environment Canada operational chemical forecast model, the forecast is improved in the vicinity of the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS) region. This ozone climatology is latitudinally, longitudinally, and vertically resolved and it offers more complete high latitude coverage as well as a much longer record than current satellite data. As the climatology depends on neither a priori data nor photochemical modeling, it provides independent information and insight that can supplement satellite data and model simulations of stratospheric ozone.
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