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Journal articles on the topic 'Scenarios'

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Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 30 July 2024

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1

Jo, Hanghun, Seong-A. Kim, and Heungsoon Kim. "Forecasting the Reduction in Urban Air Pollution by Expansion of Market Shares of Eco-Friendly Vehicles: A Focus on Seoul, Korea." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 22 (November 19, 2022): 15314. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192215314.

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Due to global climate change, various countries have agreed upon the use of conventions. In this study, the eco-friendly vehicular policy on carbon neutrality implemented in Seoul, Korea, was examined. To this end, various policy-based scenarios were set, and the changes in automotive exhaust gas emissions were evaluated and compared. The evaluation method combined macroscopic and microscopic emission models as its analysis framework. Micro-traffic data available in Korea were used for analyses, and the results for all autonomous districts were derived to cover the entire area of Seoul. The findings confirmed that the most effective measure is the initial replacement of old, mid-size, or large diesel passenger cars with eco-friendly vehicles (Middle-sized: Scenario 2-1 5.52%, Scenario 2-2 6.86%, Scenario 3-1 80.93%, and Scenario 3-2 83.98%). The replacement of old vehicles exhibited the highest effect in all tested scenarios, while the initial replacement of diesel vehicles was more effective than the replacement of gasoline and liquified petroleum gas vehicles (Diesel: Scenario2-1 6.64%, Scenario 2-2 8.21%, Scenario3-1 86.23%, and Scenario 3-2 90.51%). Among the autonomous districts of Seoul, the Gangnam-gu area exhibited the largest emission-reduced effect among all the tested scenarios (Gangnam-gu: Scenario 2-1 5.80%, Scenario 2-2 6.74%, Scenario 3-1 80.44%, and Scenario 3-2 82.62%). Overall, it was demonstrated that the findings of this study may have significant policy implications in terms of urban emission changes pertaining to transportation.
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Murphy, Michael D., and Don R. Day. "A scenario for writing creative scenarios." Socio-Ecological Practice Research 3, no. 2 (June 2021): 207–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s42532-021-00081-8.

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3

Uchitel, Sebastian, Jeff Kramer, and Jeff Magee. "Negative scenarios for implied scenario elicitation." ACM SIGSOFT Software Engineering Notes 27, no. 6 (November 2002): 109–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/605466.605484.

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4

Xiao, Yang, Qinli Xiong, and Kaiwen Pan. "What Is Left for Our Next Generation? Integrating Ecosystem Services into Regional Policy Planning in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China." Sustainability 11, no. 1 (December 20, 2018): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11010003.

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Land use/Land cover (LULC) changes as a result of policy planning influence ecosystem structures, processes, and functions, which are the basis for providing a wide range of ecosystem services (ES). There is an increasing consensus about the importance of integrating ES into ecological policy but quantifying the potential impacts of different policy on ES has proven difficult. We designed a remote sensing, geographic information system and scenario analysis-based approach to estimate and analyze the relationship between ES (soil conservation and carbon sequestration) and ecological policy designed to improve human welfare in the Chongqing municipality in the upper reaches of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China; a densely populated, highly modified watershed with serious soil erosion and flood hazard. Three alternative scenarios in 2050 were modeled for the Three Gorges Reservoir Area watershed. The model GEOMOD was used to predict future LULC changes due to policy planning. The ES models (Universal Soil Loss Equation model and Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model) were designed to inform decisions, with an aim to align economic forces with conservation. We examine policy effectiveness by comparing scenarios for 2050 (Scenario1: Maintain current policy with no considerations of ES; Scenario2: Integrate ES into policy planning; Scenario3: Integrate ES into policy planning in view of the need of local people). Scenario-based LULC change analysis revealed that if the current afforestation policy continues (scenario 1), total ES would be further increased in 2050 due to expansion of forest cover. However, by targeting policy to improve ES provision (scenarios 2 and 3), ecological risks of soil loss can be significantly reduced and carbon sequestration enhanced. Scenario 3, thus, provided the best future environmental development scenario considering the need of local people in each region for ES. This scenario will theoretically help the Three Gorges Dam to harvest more ecological benefits through improvements in soil conservation and carbon sequestration. This study highlights the observation that including ES in policy planning and has a great potential to generate opportunities to maximize ES. This study highlights that including ES in policy planning has a great potential to generate opportunities to maximize ES. Hence, there is a need to encourage proper implementation of ecological policy to maintain and improve ES.
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Freeman, Oliver, and Hugh M. Pattinson. "Exploring client scenarios associated with scenario planning." Futures 42, no. 4 (May 2010): 304–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.016.

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Chapagain, Kamal, Samundra Gurung, Pisut Kulthanavit, and Somsak Kittipiyakul. "Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting Using Deep Neural Networks: An Analysis for Thai Data." Applied System Innovation 6, no. 6 (October 27, 2023): 100. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/asi6060100.

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Electricity demand forecasting plays a significant role in energy markets. Accurate prediction of electricity demand is the key factor in optimizing power generation and consumption, saving energy resources, and determining energy prices. However, integrating energy mix scenarios, including solar and wind power, which are highly nonlinear and seasonal, into an existing grid increases the uncertainty of generation, creating additional challenges for precise forecasting. To tackle such challenges, state-of-the-art methods and algorithms have been implemented in the literature. Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based deep learning models can effectively handle the information of long time-series data. Based on patterns identified in datasets, various scenarios can be developed. In this paper, several models were constructed and tested using deep AI networks in two different scenarios: Scenario1 used data for weekdays, excluding holidays, while Scenario2 used the data without exclusion. To find the optimal configuration, the models were trained and tested within a large space of alternative hyperparameters. We used an Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based Feedforward Neural Network (FNN) to show the minimum prediction error for Scenario1 and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN)-based Gated Recurrent Network (GRU) to show the minimum prediction error for Scenario2. From our results, it can be concluded that the weekday dataset in Scenario1 prepared by excluding weekends and holidays provides better forecasting accuracy compared to the holistic dataset approach used in Scenario2. However, Scenario2 is necessary for predicting the demand on weekends and holidays.
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7

Wang, Xiao Lu. "Charging Characteristics of Electric Vehicles and Charging Cost Analysis." Advanced Materials Research 953-954 (June 2014): 1363–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.953-954.1363.

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This paper investigates the “Vehicle-charging mode” and the “Battery-changing mode” of the electric vehicles. Firstly, it analyzes the vehicle-charging time, the battery-changing time and the charging power under two modes. Secondly, this paper searches into different sorts of charging and sets up three scenarios based on the differences: scenario1, disorderly; scenario2, continuous; scenario 3, off-peak. Thirdly, this paper considers the combination of generator sets that reaches the requirements of electric vehicle charging based on the characteristics of different sorts of charging, concerns the increased fuel costs, O&M costs and start cost generated along, and draws conclusions with the comparison of the elements.
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Anggara Purba, Reno Dias, M. Iqbal Sabit, and Joko Sulistio. "Evaluation of SME (Small Medium Enterprise) production system with discrete system simulation method." MATEC Web of Conferences 154 (2018): 01067. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201815401067.

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Like manufacturing companies that have flowshop production lines, SME facing the amount of flow time and makespan. Unfulfilled production targets, buildup on some machines that result in other machines being idle, increasing waiting times across multiple machines, and poor performance of workers are a series of problems facing SME. This article uses a discrete system simulation method to analyze and evaluate SME production lines to improve performance. Simulation is an appropriate tool used when experiments are needed in order to find the best response from system components. From the results of modeling and simulation done found the root of the problem is due to accumulation that occurs in one machine and the lack of utility of the operator in producing bags. So do the experimental design with 3 scenarios on the system that have been modeled and obtained some solutions that can be offered to solve the problem. Furthermore, after the alternative selection is obtained the best scenario based on the alternative selection test is the scenario3 by adding 2 new machines and 1 new operator on the production line obtained a significant output increase compared to other scenarios of approximately 30%. While the best scenario based on the minimum cost is the scenario2 by adding 2 new operators obtained output that is not much different than the scenario3. However, it has not been able to solve a series of problems facing SME. Therefore, the results of this study to solve a series of problems faced by SME is to add facilities in the production line of 2 new machines and 1 operator (scenario3).
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Wilkinson, Angela, and Esther Eidinow. "Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology." Environmental Research Letters 3, no. 4 (October 2008): 045017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/045017.

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10

Golub, Bennett, David Greenberg, and Ronald Ratcliffe. "Market-Driven Scenarios: An Approach for Plausible Scenario Construction." Journal of Portfolio Management 44, no. 5 (April 5, 2018): 6–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2018.1.079.

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Golub, Bennett, David Greenberg, and Ronald Ratcliffe. "Market-Driven Scenarios: An Approach for Plausible Scenario Construction." Journal of Portfolio Management 44, no. 5 (April 30, 2018): 6–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2018.44.5.006.

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12

Mason, David H., and James Herman. "Scenarios and strategies: making the scenario about the business." Strategy & Leadership 31, no. 1 (February 2003): 23–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/10878570310455024.

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13

Paltsev, Sergey. "Energy scenarios: the value and limits of scenario analysis." Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment 6, no. 4 (December 28, 2016): e242. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wene.242.

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14

Hendrawan, Riko, and Ariful Ulya. "Do We Believe In Value? : Valuing Toll Road Sub Sector Companies Listed On Idx." Jurnal Manajemen Indonesia 23, no. 1 (April 28, 2023): 83. http://dx.doi.org/10.25124/jmi.v23i1.4011.

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The purpose of this to examining the intrinsic value of the shares of toll road operator companies in IDX in 2021. This research uses data from 2016 to 2020 to calculate the historical performance of each company and is projected from 2021 to 2025. We used pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic scenario. The method used is DCF method with FCFF approach and the calculation of the Relative Valuation method using PER and PBV approaches. The results based on the DCF-FCFF method showed that JSMR was overvalued for the pessimistic scenario and undervalued for the moderate and optimistic scenarios, while the calculation using the RV-PER method on JSMR showed that it was undervalued in the pessimistic and moderate scenarios and overvalued in the optimistic scenario. Also, based on the RV-PBV method, it showed undervalued in all scenarios. The DCF-FCFF results of CMNP issuers were undervalued in all scenarios, the RV-PER method was overvalued in all scenarios, and the RV-PBV were undervalued in all scenarios. Finally, META issuers were undervalued in the pessimistic scenario, and overvalued in the moderate and optimistic scenarios. RV-PER CMNP had undervalued results in the pessimistic scenario and overvalued in the moderate and optimistic scenarios, and the RV-PBV had undervalued results in the pessimistic scenario and overvalued in the moderate and optimistic scenarios. Keywords : DCF, FCFF, PBV, PER
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15

Qian, Xinbo, Qiuhua Tang, and Bo Tao. "A Novel Scenario Reduction Method by 3D-Outputs Clustering for Condition-Based Maintenance Optimization." International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering 24, no. 04 (April 19, 2017): 1750018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218539317500188.

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Condition-based maintenance (CBM) optimization involves considering inherent uncertainties and external uncertainties. Since computational complexity increases exponentially with the number of degradation uncertainties and stages, scenario reduction aims to select small set of typical scenarios which can maintain the probability distributions of outputs of possible scenarios. A novel scenario reduction method, 3D-outputs-clustering scenario reduction (3DOCS), is presented by considering the impacts of uncertainty parameters on the output performance for CBM optimization which have been overlooked. Since the output performance for CBM is much more essential than the inputs, the proposed scenario reduction method reduces degradation scenarios by [Formula: see text]-means clustering of the multiple outputs of degradations scenarios for CBM. It minimizes the probabilistic distribution distances of outputs between original and selected scenarios. Case studies show that 3DOCS has advantages as a smaller distance of output performance of selected scenarios compared to that of initial scenarios.
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Rezaei, Abolfazl, Bahador Samadzadegan, Hadise Rasoulian, Saeed Ranjbar, Soroush Samareh Abolhassani, Azin Sanei, and Ursula Eicker. "A New Modeling Approach for Low-Carbon District Energy System Planning." Energies 14, no. 5 (March 3, 2021): 1383. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14051383.

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Designing district-scale energy systems with renewable energy sources is still a challenge, as it involves modeling of multiple loads and many options to combine energy system components. In the current study, two different energy system scenarios for a district in Montreal/Canada are compared to choose the most cost-effective and energy-efficient energy system scenario for the studied area. In the first scenario, a decentral energy system comprised of ground-source heat pumps provides heating and cooling for each building, while, in the second scenario, a district heating and cooling system with a central heat pump is designed. Firstly, heating and cooling demand are calculated in a completely automated process using an Automatic Urban Building Energy Modeling System approach (AUBEM). Then, the Integrated Simulation Environment Language (INSEL) is used to prepare a model for the energy system. The proposed model provides heat pump capacity and the number of required heat pumps (HP), the number of photovoltaic (PV) panels, and AC electricity generation potential using PV. After designing the energy systems, the piping system, heat losses, and temperature distribution of the centralized scenario are calculated using a MATLAB code. Finally, two scenarios are assessed economically using the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) method. The results show that the central scenario’s total HP electricity consumption is 17% lower than that of the decentral systems and requires less heat pump capacity than the decentral scenario. The LCOE of both scenarios varies from 0.04 to 0.07 CAD/kWh, which is cheaper than the electricity cost in Quebec (0.08 CAD/kWh). A comparison between both scenarios shows that the centralized energy system is cost-beneficial for all buildings and, after applying the discounts, the LCOE of this scenario decreases to 0.04 CAD/kWh.
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Priess, Joerg A., Jennifer Hauck, Roy Haines-Young, Rob Alkemade, Maryia Mandryk, Clara Veerkamp, Bela Gyorgyi, et al. "New EU-scale environmental scenarios until 2050 – Scenario process and initial scenario applications." Ecosystem Services 29 (February 2018): 542–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.08.006.

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18

Kitessa, Bedassa Dessalegn, Semu Moges Ayalew, Geremew Sahilu Gebrie, and Solomon T/mariam Teferi. "Optimization of urban resources efficiency in the domain of water–energy–food nexus through integrated modeling: a case study of Addis Ababa city." Water Policy 24, no. 2 (January 31, 2022): 397–431. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wp.2022.213.

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Abstract This study aims to understand the long-term (2020–2050) urban water–energy–food (WEF) resources access and sustainability in Addis Ababa city through a nexus modeling approach. Several feasible scenarios in line with improving WEF resources supply and access through conservation, system rehabilitation and technology input are explored. The water system scenarios include rehabilitation and conservation scenario, water supply enhancement scenario, technology input scenario and integrated water improvement scenario. The energy scenario includes energy conservation scenario and new renewable supply enhancement scenarios and integration of both scenarios as integrated energy scenario. The food system scenarios include crop yield productivity and irrigation water use efficiency scenarios of urban agricultural system. The integrated WEF nexus scenario is the integration of all scenarios under one nexus framework. The results are evaluated against baseline scenario. At a system level, the integrated water scenario result provides a water saving potential of 26 and 52% from the baseline scenario by 2030 and 2050, respectively, whereas the integrated energy use scenario saves energy by as much as 22 and 48%. For respective years, under the integrated WEF nexus scenario, the integrated water use scenario for low energy intensity reduces the energy use for urban water system by 23 and 72% from the baseline scenario. Similarly, urban food production have also shown enhancement. Urban food production system in Addis Ababa city is relatively small and does not significantly affect the food import from other parts of the country. Overall, the results WEF nexus modeling approach revealed the importance of exploring integrated nexus approach to sustainable urban water energy and food development and management as a first attempt at the urban scale.
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Witt, Tobias, Katharina Stahlecker, and Jutta Geldermann. "Morphological analysis of energy scenarios." International Journal of Energy Sector Management 12, no. 4 (November 5, 2018): 525–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-09-2017-0003.

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PurposeEnergy scenarios have long been successfully used to inform decision-making in energy systems planning, with a wide range of different methodological approaches for developing and evaluating them. The purpose of this study is to analyze the existing approaches and classify them with a morphological box.Design/methodology/approachThis paper builds upon the methodological literature on developing and evaluating energy scenarios and presents a morphological box, which comprises parameters describing the scenario properties, (energy system) model properties, scientific practice and institutional settings of energy scenarios. The newly developed morphological box is applied to four selected energy scenarios of the German energy transition.FindingsThe morphological box is a suitable tool to classify current energy scenarios. The exemplary application also points toward four challenges in the current practice of energy scenario development and evaluation: increasing complexity of decision problems, transparency of the scenario development process, transparency of the decision support process and communication of uncertainty.Originality/valueThe morphological box of energy scenarios helps researchers soundly document and present their methodological approaches for energy scenario development and evaluation. It also facilitates the work of analysts who want to classify, interpret and compare energy scenarios from a methodological perspective. Finally, it supports the identification of gaps between current practice and the methodological literature on energy scenarios, leading to the development of new types of energy scenarios.
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Jez, C., B. Coudurier, M. Cressent, and F. Méa. "Scenarios." Advances in Animal Biosciences 4, s2 (October 2013): 106–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s204047001300037x.

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Sonin, Aleksandr A. "MODERN TRENDS OF USING SCENARIO ANALYSIS IN CORPORATE FINANCE." EKONOMIKA I UPRAVLENIE: PROBLEMY, RESHENIYA 9/1, no. 139 (2023): 63–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2023.09.01.008.

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Scenario analysis has become widespread in corporate finance as a tool for planning and risk assessment. Recently, international organizations and institutional investors have been recommending companies to analyze financial stability in various climate change scenarios, which contributes to the growing popularity of the scenario approach. The article describes the main distinctive properties of scenarios as a tool for analyzing future events, offers a classification of scenarios, discusses the main problems when using scenarios in practice, compares scenario analysis with alternative approaches. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of recommendations issued by international institutions regarding the use of scenarios to assess the risks and opportunities associated with climate change.
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Suppanich, Poonnavich, Raksanai Nidhiritdhikrai, and Weerin Wangjiraniran. "Thailand Energy Scenarios to 2035." Advanced Materials Research 962-965 (June 2014): 1782–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.962-965.1782.

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The objective of this research is to explore Thailand energy scenarios to 2035. Based on decisions focus, energy security, social acceptance, and minimal environmental impact. From the studies by scenario planning method we found two main drivers affect to the scenario decision focus, consists of vulnerability of crude oil prices and government policy sanctioned by political will. The result of this research is Thailand energy scenarios to 2035, consists of 1) Healthy scenario, 2) Reference scenario, and 3) Coma scenario.
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Mels, Adriaan R., Arjen F. van Nieuwenhuijzen, Jaap H. J. M. van der Graaf, Bram Klapwijk, Jaap de Koning, and Wim H. Rulkens. "Sustainability criteria as a tool in the development of new sewage treatment methods." Water Science and Technology 39, no. 5 (March 1, 1999): 243–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.1999.0245.

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In The Netherlands a research project is presently conducted, which has the objective to identify new, more sustainable sewage treatment scenarios which are based on physical-chemical pretreatment. After collecting possible treatment scenarios by means of literature research and contacts with international experts the identified scenarios are evaluated on sustainability and costs. For evaluating the sustainability, the following sustainability criteria (derived from the Life Cycle Assessment methodology) are used: energy balance, final sludge production, effluent quality, the use of chemicals and space requirement (footprint). Within this paper the use of these criteria is illustrated and discussed by means of two example scenarios and a reference scenario. The calculation results for the two example scenario's show that physical-chemical pretreatment leads to energy saving when biological post treatment is applied. Besides, more energy can be generated through sludge digestion, due to an increased sludge production. However, the increased particle removal also leads to an increased final sludge production after digestion which will have to be disposed of and to a relatively high consumption of chemicals.
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Polyakov, Sergej Danilovich. "On the Basics of Scenarios for the Development of Social Education." Siberian Pedagogical Journal, no. 6 (December 29, 2020): 151–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.15293/1813-4718.2006.15.

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The article describes the experience of developing scenarios for the development of Russian social education. The concept of a forecast scenario is formulated; the difference between this forecasting method and the foresight method is shown; the technology of developing a predictive scenario for social phenomena is characterized, the foundations for scenarios of the development of social education are presented (background data, description of the object and subject of the stage, scenario parameters); examples of developed scenarios are presented; their assessments by experts; correction of scenarios taking into account the new social and educational situation in 2020. On the basis of the formulated scenario provisions, new research topics are proposed for the problems of social education, the relation of predictive scenarios to the really unfolding processes in the sphere of social education is indicated.
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Polyakov, Sergej Danilovich. "On the Basics of Scenarios for the Development of Social Education." Siberian Pedagogical Journal, no. 6 (December 29, 2020): 151–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.15293/1813-4718.2006.15.

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The article describes the experience of developing scenarios for the development of Russian social education. The concept of a forecast scenario is formulated; the difference between this forecasting method and the foresight method is shown; the technology of developing a predictive scenario for social phenomena is characterized, the foundations for scenarios of the development of social education are presented (background data, description of the object and subject of the stage, scenario parameters); examples of developed scenarios are presented; their assessments by experts; correction of scenarios taking into account the new social and educational situation in 2020. On the basis of the formulated scenario provisions, new research topics are proposed for the problems of social education, the relation of predictive scenarios to the really unfolding processes in the sphere of social education is indicated.
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Fathi, Mohammad Reza, Seyed Mohammad Sobhani, Mohammad Hasan Maleki, and Gholamreza Jandaghi. "Future study of textile industry in Iran using the MICMAC and soft operational research methods." foresight 23, no. 4 (March 29, 2021): 439–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-02-2020-0017.

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Purpose This study aims to formulate exploratory scenarios of the textile industry in Iran based on MICMAC and soft operational research methods. Design/methodology/approach In this study, to formulate plausible scenarios, literature reviews and external experts’ opinions of this field have been gathered through the Delphi approach and uncertainty questionnaires. After the utilization of the most important uncertainties, the textile industry’s plausible scenarios have been mapped with the help of experts through co-thinking workshops. Results show that two factors, including the business atmosphere and membership in World Trade Organization (WTO), play a more important role than the other factors. These two factors were considered for the formulation of the scenario. To formulate plausible scenarios, soft systems methodology, which is a kind of soft operational research methods, is applied. Findings Based on the results, four scenarios are presented. These scenarios include the Elysium scenario, Hades scenario, Tatarus scenario and Sisyphus scenario. In the Elysium scenario, the business atmosphere has improved and Iran has been granted membership of the WTO. In Hades scenario, Iran has joined the WTO, but due to the government’s weakness and inactivity and key decision-makers, the required preparations have not been made. In the Tatarus scenario, Iran is not a WTO member and the business atmosphere is disastrous. In the Sisyphus scenario, the government takes reasonable actions toward a better business environment. Originality/value Formulating plausible scenarios of the textile industry is an excellent contribution to the key beneficiaries and actors of this industry so they can present flexible preparation-based programs in the face of circumstances. Future study of the textile industry familiarizes the actors and beneficiaries of this industry with the procedures and the driving forces that influence this industry’s future and it will ascertain various scenarios for the actors of this field.
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Carlsen, Henrik, E. Anders Eriksson, Karl Henrik Dreborg, Bengt Johansson, and Örjan Bodin. "Systematic exploration of scenario spaces." Foresight 18, no. 1 (March 14, 2016): 59–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-02-2015-0011.

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Purpose – Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios. Findings – The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research. Originality/value – The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios.
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OHNISHI, Atsushi, and Koji KITAMOTO. "A Generation Method of Alternative Scenarios with a Normal Scenario." IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems E93-D, no. 4 (2010): 693–701. http://dx.doi.org/10.1587/transinf.e93.d.693.

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OHNISHI, A. "A Generation Method of Exceptional Scenarios from a Normal Scenario." IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems E91-D, no. 4 (April 1, 2008): 881–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ietisy/e91-d.4.881.

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Chen, Yongjie, and Tieru Wu. "SATVSR: Scenario Adaptive Transformer for Cross Scenarios Video Super-Resolution." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2456, no. 1 (March 1, 2023): 012028. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2456/1/012028.

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Abstract Video Super-Resolution (VSR) aims to recover sequences of high-resolution (HR) frames from low-resolution (LR) frames. Previous methods mainly utilize temporally adjacent frames to assist the reconstruction of target frames. However, in the real world, there is a lot of irrelevant information in adjacent frames of videos with fast scene switching, these VSR methods cannot adaptively distinguish and select useful information. In contrast, with a transformer structure suitable for temporal tasks, we devise a novel adaptive scenario video super-resolution method. Specifically, we use optical flow to label the patches in each video frame, only calculate the attention of patches with the same label. Then select the most relevant label among them to supplement the spatial-temporal information of the target frame. This design can directly make the supplementary information come from the same scene as much as possible. We further propose a cross-scale feature aggregation module to better handle the scale variation problem. Compared with other video super-resolution methods, our method not only achieves significant performance gains on single-scene videos but also has better robustness on cross-scene datasets.
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Batsch, Felix, Alireza Daneshkhah, Vasile Palade, and Madeline Cheah. "Scenario Optimisation and Sensitivity Analysis for Safe Automated Driving Using Gaussian Processes." Applied Sciences 11, no. 2 (January 15, 2021): 775. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app11020775.

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Assuring the safety of automated vehicles is essential for their timely introduction and acceptance by policymakers and the public. To assess their safe design and robust decision making in response to all possible scenarios, new methods that use a scenario-based testing approach are needed, as testing on public roads in normal traffic would require driving millions of kilometres. We make use of the scenario-based testing approach and propose a method to model simulated scenarios using Gaussian Process based models to predict untested scenario outcomes. This enables us to efficiently determine the performance boundary, where the safe and unsafe scenarios can be evidently distinguished from each other. We present an iterative method that optimises the parameter space of a logical scenario towards the most critical scenarios on this performance boundary. Additionally, we conduct a novel probabilistic sensitivity analysis by efficiently computing several variance-based sensitivity indices using the Gaussian Process models and evaluate the relative importance of the scenario input parameters on the scenario outcome. We critically evaluate and investigate the usefulness of the proposed Gaussian Process based approach as a very efficient surrogate model, which can model the logical scenarios effectively in the presence of uncertainty. The proposed approach is applied on an exemplary logical scenario and shows viability in finding concrete critical scenarios. The reported results, derived from the proposed approach, could pave the way to more efficient testing of automated vehicles and instruct further physical tests on the determined critical scenarios.
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Cai, Jinkang, Weiwen Deng, Ying Wang, Haoran Guang, Jiangkun Li, and Juan Ding. "Boundary Scenario Generation for HAVs Based on Classification and Local Sampling." Machines 11, no. 4 (March 27, 2023): 426. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/machines11040426.

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High-level Automated Vehicles (HAVs) are expected to improve traffic safety significantly. However, verifying and evaluating HAVs remains an open problem. Scenario-based testing is a promising method for HAV testing. Boundary scenarios exist around the performance boundary between critical and non-critical scenarios. Testing HAVs in these boundary scenarios is crucial to investigate why collisions cannot be avoided due to small changes in scenario parameters. This study proposes a methodology to generate diverse boundary scenarios to test HAVs. First, an approach is proposed to obtain at least one High-Performance Classifier (HPC) based on two classification algorithms that iteratively guide each other to find uncertain scenarios to improve their performance. Then, the HPC is exploited to find candidate scenarios highly likely to be boundary scenarios. To increase the efficiency of candidate scenario generation, a strategy based on local sampling is presented to find more diverse candidate scenarios based on a small number of them. Numerical experiments show that the HPCs acquired by the method proposed in this study can achieve a classification accuracy of 98% and 99% for random car-following and cut-in scenarios, respectively. Moreover, more than 86% of 271,744 candidate cut-in scenarios derived by local sampling are near the performance boundary.
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33

Nashih, AM Sa’dun, Kuncoro Harto Widodo, and Dyah Ismoyowati. "Inventory Level Analysis of Horticultural Commodities Exported by PT BSL from Central Java Indonesia to Singapore." KnE Life Sciences 3, no. 3 (January 1, 2016): 129. http://dx.doi.org/10.18502/kls.v3i3.407.

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<p>Horticultural commodities, in Indonesia, are one of the main clusters of export commodities. The demand of the commodities is relatively high due to the high economic level of consumers in Singapore. The exporter, e.g., PT BSL, had difficulties to meet the demand of Singapore’s importer. This problem will be analyzed with inventory system in the supply chain of vegetables and fruits exported from Central Java Indonesia to Singapore. To identify the problem, we combine a dynamic system approach and its validation. The data on existing conditions (with the level of rejection = 20%) were then formulated and modeled with two alternative scenarios, scenario1 and 2. In scenario 1, the level of rejection was set at the level of 10%, while scenario2 at the level of 30%. Based on the simulation results, it was found that the average level of inventory in the scenario 1 was at 661.9 kg per day, while in scenario 2 were 112.34 kg per day.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong>: dynamic systems, horticultural commodities, inventory, supply chain </p>
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Gauze, Touao Kah Martine, Kouamé Yao Morton, Mélèdje N’diaye Hermann, Sékongo Guénolé Largaton, and Soro Gnéneyougo Emile. "Impacts des changements de l’occupation du sol et des changements climatiques sur le bassin versant de la rivière Davo, Côte d’Ivoire." European Scientific Journal, ESJ 14, no. 33 (November 30, 2018): 408. http://dx.doi.org/10.19044/esj.2018.v14n33p408.

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The main objective of this study is to asssess the impacts of climate change and land cover change on the hydrology of the Davo river basin located in southwestern of Côte d'Ivoire. Two scenarios of climate change (A2 and B2) and two scenarios of land cover called scenario 1 (deforestation) and scenario 2 (reforestation) were established, and streamflows under these scenarios were simulated by the hydrological model CEQUEAU. Each scenario showed distinct variations in streamflows. Regarding the impacts of land cover change, scenario 1 and scenario 2 indicate increases of 10.6% and 1%, respectively. As for the impacts of climate change, climate models predict a very wide range of possible changes in streamflows. The multimodel approach indicates a decrease in streamflows of 0.5% and 2.75% respectively under the A2 and B2 scenarios by 2050. By 2080, streamflows would increase by 14.75% under the scenario A2 and 3.5% under scenario B2. In order to implement adaptation and mitigation strategies, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios should be used, regional climate models should be applied, and combined assessments of the impacts of climate change and land cover should be made.
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de Souza Pinho, Giusilene Costa, João Luiz Calmon, Diego Lima Medeiros, Darli Vieira, and Alencar Bravo. "Wood Waste Management from the Furniture Industry: The Environmental Performances of Recycling, Energy Recovery, and Landfill Treatments." Sustainability 15, no. 20 (October 17, 2023): 14944. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su152014944.

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Proper management of wood waste (WW) from the furniture industry has become an important issue. Life-cycle assessment (LCA) is a tool that is widely used for identifying environmental gains in WW management strategies. Thus, the aim of this research was to perform a comparative LCA, analyzing the environmental aspects and impacts of different WW management scenarios generated in the furniture industry in the state of Espirito Santo, Brazil. To conduct the study, five scenarios were designed: medium-density fiberboard (MDF) production (Scenario 1), medium-density particleboard (MDP) production (Scenario 2), solid ceramic brick production (Scenario 3), heat production in the ceramics industry (Scenario 4), and landfill disposal (Scenario 5). The results showed that compared to Scenarios 3 and 4, Scenarios 1 and 2 are potentially more favorable for disposing of WW. Scenario 1 achieved more environmental benefits in all of the impact categories evaluated. Notably, 1 m3 of MDF stores 1080 kg CO2 eq/m3, which results in a net impact of −849 kg CO2 eq/m3 of MDF. Scenario 5 is the least favorable practice. This research designs scenarios that contribute to reductions in the demand for virgin sources and increases in environmental gains.
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Narandžić, Milan, Christian Schneider, Wim Kotterman, and Reiner S. Thomä. "Quantification of Scenario Distance within Generic WINNER Channel Model." International Journal of Antennas and Propagation 2013 (2013): 1–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/176704.

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Starting from the premise that stochastic properties of a radio environment can be abstracted by defining scenarios, a generic MIMO channel model is built by the WINNER project. The parameter space of the WINNER model is, among others, described by normal probability distributions and correlation coefficients that provide a suitable space for scenario comparison. The possibility to quantify the distance between reference scenarios and measurements enables objective comparison and classification of measurements into scenario classes. In this paper we approximate the WINNER scenarios with multivariate normal distributions and then use the mean Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify their divergence. The results show that the WINNER scenario groups (A, B, C, and D) or propagation classes (LoS, OLoS, and NLoS) do not necessarily ensure minimum separation within the groups/classes. Instead, the following grouping minimizes intragroup distances: (i) indoor-to-outdoor and outdoor-to-indoor scenarios (A2, B4, and C4), (ii) macrocell configurations for suburban, urban, and rural scenarios (C1, C2, and D1), and (iii) indoor/hotspot/microcellular scenarios (A1, B3, and B1). The computation of the divergence between Ilmenau and Dresden measurements and WINNER scenarios confirms that the parameters of the C2 scenario are a proper reference for a large variety of urban macrocell environments.
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Lee, Jae-Kyoung, and Young-Oh Kim. "Selection of representative GCM scenarios preserving uncertainties." Journal of Water and Climate Change 8, no. 4 (July 27, 2017): 641–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2017.101.

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Abstract Climate change studies usually include the use of many projections, and selecting an essential number of projections is very important, because using all Global Climate Model (GCM) scenarios is impossible in practice. Furthermore, the climate change impact assessment is often sensitive to the choice of GCM scenarios. This study suggests that selecting the best-performing scenarios based on a historical period should be avoided in nonstationary cases like climate change, and then proposes a new approach that can preserve the uncertainty, that all scenarios contain. The new approach groups all GCM scenarios into several clusters, and then selects a single representative scenario among member scenarios of each cluster, based on their skill scores. The proposed approach is termed ‘selecting the principal scenarios’, and applied to select five principal GCM scenarios for the South Korean Peninsula, among 17 GCM scenarios of the 20C3M emission scenario. The uncertainty preservation is measured with the maximum entropy theory. The case study presents that the principal scenarios preserve the full range of total uncertainty, compared to less than 65% for the best scenarios confirming that preserving uncertainty with the principal scenarios is more adequate, than selecting the best-performed scenarios, in climate change studies.
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38

Anggreeni, Irene, and Mascha C. van der Voort. "Tracing the Scenarios in Scenario-Based Product Design: A Study to Understand Scenario Generation." Design Principles and Practices: An International Journal—Annual Review 2, no. 4 (2008): 123–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.18848/1833-1874/cgp/v02i04/37564.

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39

Moats, Jason B., Thomas J. Chermack, and Larry M. Dooley. "Using Scenarios to Develop Crisis Managers: Applications of Scenario Planning and Scenario-Based Training." Advances in Developing Human Resources 10, no. 3 (June 2008): 397–424. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1523422308316456.

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Wang, Xiao Wei, Jian Feng Li, Jian Zhi Li, and Rui Jun Zhang. "A New LCA Method Based on Multi-Scenarios Coexistence." Advanced Materials Research 139-141 (October 2010): 1442–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.139-141.1442.

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Because of the simplification for scenario choices and few reflections of space-time characters, product designers or police makers can’t reference effectively the results of LCA. This paper proposed a new LCA method for design scheme based on multi-scenarios coexistence. First, various life-cycle scenarios of product are summarized and the common attributes are extracted to generate the scenario model. Second, the choice matrix of multi-scenarios is founded based on product statistic. And the probabilities of scenarios calculated from the choice matrix are used to gather together the environmental impacts of multi-scenarios in proportion. Third, the inventory data are collected as per scenario including pollution emissions and character information. The later are used to generate personnel, spatial and temporal factors which reflect the diversity of environmental impacts in different scenarios. Finally, the related issues are discussed including matters needing attention in practical application and what need to research in future.
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K.C., Raj Kumar, and Amrit Man Nakarmi. "Urban Energy Scenario of Household Sector in Bhaktapur Municipality for Sustainable Energy Development." Journal of Advanced College of Engineering and Management 6 (July 9, 2021): 99–109. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/jacem.v6i0.38342.

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This study aims to analyse energy scenarios of Bhaktapur Municipality through primary data survey of 165 houses as a function of household's characteristics. Three scenarios are considered business-as-usual (BAU), Sustainable Energy scenario (SED) and Accelerated Growth Scenario (AGS). BAU, SED and AGS show an expected energy growth at annual rates of4.08%, 3.71% and 4.01%; with economic growth of 4.6%, 7.0% and 9.2% respectively. Whereas, the electricity consumption per household in the SEDand AGS are 3,840KWh and 4,698KWh respectively, lies in tier-5 as per SDG. Fuel imported cost NRs. 471 million and NRs. 523 million can be saved in SED and AGS Scenarios respectively as compare to BAU scenario. Overall, under all three scenarios, it was found that total GHG emission in 2018 was 7.59 kilotons to nil in 2030 for SED and AGS.Furthermore,NPV value in AGS and SED scenarios are in negative value which means both scenarios is economically viable.
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42

Maslikhina, V. Yu. "Scenario planning for the development of spatial economic and social systems: Methodological approaches." Regional Economics: Theory and Practice 18, no. 10 (October 15, 2020): 1839–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/re.18.10.1839.

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Subject. This article reviews and systematizes methodological approaches to generate scenarios and develop a scenario planning algorithm in relation to spatial socio-economic systems. Objectives. The article aims to analyze and classify scenarios and algorithms of scenario planning, as well as choose and justify an approach to scenario planning of the development of spatial socio-economic systems. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, comparison, and classification. Results. The article clarifies the definitions of Scenario and Scenario Planning and categorizes scenarios according to different criteria. It reveals the gap between the theory and practice of scenario planning in Russian regions. The article also offers certain recommendations on the use of scenarios in regional planning. Conclusions. The article concludes that the hybrid approach in scenario planning of the development of spatial socio-economic systems (countries, regions, cities, municipalities) is more preferable than the exploratory or normative ones.
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Rahmanta, Mujammil Asdhiyoga, Rahmat Adiprasetya Al Hasibi, Handrea Bernando Tambunan, Ruly, Agussalim Syamsuddin, Indra Ardhanayudha Aditya, and Benny Susanto. "Towards a Net Zero-Emission Electricity Generation System by Optimizing Renewable Energy Sources and Nuclear Power Plant." Energies 17, no. 8 (April 19, 2024): 1958. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en17081958.

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Greenhouse gas emissions, including CO2 emissions, are an issue in the energy sector that must be addressed urgently. The energy sector, including electricity, has been given a global aim of net zero emissions (NZE). This article examines three scenarios for reaching net-zero emissions in power supply. These scenarios are baseline, NZE1, and NZE2. The baseline scenario represents power plant capacity planning based on existing regulations in the base year. The net zero emissions consisting of the NZE1 and NZE2 scenarios aim to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. The NZE1 and NZE2 scenarios differ in the usage of nuclear power plant technology. The NZE1 scenario employs advanced costs for small modular reactors and large reactors technology, whilst the NZE2 scenario employs the low cost of small modular reactors and large reactors. The three scenarios were implemented and examined using the low emissions analysis platform software. The analytical results demonstrate that the NZE1 and NZE2 scenarios can meet the net zero emission objective by 2058. The baseline scenario results in power plant capacity planning with an average annual CO2 emission growth rate of 3.58%. On the other hand, the baseline scenario has the lowest investment expenses, at only 44 billion USD.
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Nepal, Anil. "Mitigation of GHG Emission by Replacing Diesel Buses with Electric Buses in Kathmandu Valley “A Case Study of Sajha Yatayat”." Journal of Innovations in Engineering Education 3, no. 1 (March 31, 2020): 21–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/jiee.v3i1.34321.

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The net benefit of replacing diesel bus by electric bus in Kathmandu Valley is found positive. The net benefits of replacing diesel bus by electric bus is found to be NRs 8,31,776.So, per bus per year in the context of Sajha yatayat, the government should encourage the introduction of electric bus inside Kathmandu Valley. The four types of scenarios including one Business as usual scenario and other three different replacement scenarios, namely, ESB25, ESB50 and ESB100 for the period 2019-2035 are analyzed in this study. The 15.5, 31.2 and 62.4 Million Mega joule of energy can be saved in ESB25, ESB50 and ESB100 scenarios respectively in comparison to BAU scenario. The cumulative cost saved from avoided energy is 0.12, 0.25 and 0.5 million US dollars at constant price of 2019 under ESB25, ESB50 and ESB100 scenarios respectively in comparison to BAU scenario. The total GHG emissions avoided is 15.6, 31.2 and 62.41 thousand tons under ESB25, ESB50 and ESB100 scenarios respectively in comparison to BAU scenario. The cumulative revenue generated is 0.15, 0.31 and 0.62 million US dollars at constant price of 2019 under ESB25, ESB50 and ESB100 scenarios respectively in comparison to BAU scenario. Since net benefit of replacing both old and new diesel bus is positive, ESB100 scenario is the best option to replace diesel buses by electric uses.
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Li, Xiujun, Yuhui Su, Xiaoshi Liu, Wendian Shi, and Kan Shi. "Prosocial behavior in envy scenarios." Social Behavior and Personality: an international journal 45, no. 11 (December 2, 2017): 1803–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.2224/sbp.6660.

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We investigated prosocial behavior in different envy conditions. Participants (N = 118) responded to partners' requests for help after taking part in either a control scenario or scenarios where they felt that their partner was envious of them based on their performance (input), a reward (output), or both (input–output). Results showed significantly different levels of prosocial behavior, with this being highest in the output envy scenario and lowest in the input–output envy scenario. Effects of benign and malicious envy were also assessed across scenarios. In the input and output scenarios, malicious envy positively predicted prosocial behaviors and benign envy negatively predicted prosocial behaviors, whereas the opposite was true in the input–output scenario. Our results imply that employees experiencing benign envy can be motivated to improve their own abilities and performance, whereas perceiving malicious envy is likely to elicit prosocial behavior by the envied person toward envious employees.
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Park, Sangmin, Sungho Park, Harim Jeong, Ilsoo Yun, and Jaehyun (Jason) So. "Scenario-Mining for Level 4 Automated Vehicle Safety Assessment from Real Accident Situations in Urban Areas Using a Natural Language Process." Sensors 21, no. 20 (October 19, 2021): 6929. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s21206929.

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As the research and development activities of automated vehicles have been active in recent years, developing test scenarios and methods has become necessary to evaluate and ensure their safety. Based on the current context, this study developed an automated vehicle test scenario derivation methodology using traffic accident data and a natural language processing technique. The natural language processing technique-based test scenario mining methodology generated 16 functional test scenarios for urban arterials and 38 scenarios for intersections in urban areas. The proposed methodology was validated by determining the number of traffic accident records that can be explained by the resulting test scenarios. That is, the resulting test scenarios are valid and represent a matching rate between the test scenarios and the increased number of traffic accident records. The resulting functional scenarios generated by the proposed methodology account for 43.69% and 27.63% of the actual traffic accidents for urban arterial and intersection scenarios, respectively.
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van Oost, Ellen, Stefan Kuhlmann, Gonzalo Ordóñez-Matamoros, and Peter Stegmaier. "Futures of science with and for society: towards transformative policy orientations." Foresight 18, no. 3 (June 13, 2016): 276–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-10-2014-0063.

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Purpose How to derive policy implications from five future scenarios of transformed research and innovation (R&I) systems? This paper analyzes methodological and content issues of five future scenarios of transformed R&I systems. The aim of this paper is to provide an outlook on strategic policies capable of facilitating or moderating these transformative changes in R&I practices is discussed in light of overarching intentions to foster “responsible” ambitions (in Europe and beyond, discussed as responsible research and innovation, RRI). Design/methodology/approach The paper elaborates a four-step methodology to assess the scenario’s policy implications: first, by articulating the scenario implications for six core dimensions of R&I systems; second, an RRI assessment framework is developed to assess in each scenario opportunities and limitations for transforming R&I systems towards responsibility goals; the third involves a cross-scenario analysis of similarities and differences between the scenarios, allowing the identification of robust policy options that make sense in more than one scenario. The last analytical step includes again the richness of the individual scenario assessments aiming to provide a broader outlook on transformative policy orientations. Findings The paper concludes with outlining the contours of a future-responsible R&I system together with some suggestions for transformative policy orientations that aim to govern the R&I system towards such a future, as a source of inspiration and reflection. Research limitations/implications The analysis is based on five future scenarios that do not systematically cover future developments external to the R&I system. Practical Implications An outlook of strategic policies capable of facilitating or moderating these transformative changes in R&I practices is discussed in light of the overarching European Union goal of encouraging the performance of RRI. Originality/value This paper provides inspirational anticipatory strategic intelligence for fostering the responsible ambitions of research with and for society.
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48

HONG, JANG-EUI, and DOO-HWAN BAE. "INCREMENTAL SCENARIO MODELING USING HIERARCHICAL OBJECT-ORIENTED PETRI NET." International Journal of Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering 11, no. 03 (June 2001): 357–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218194001000566.

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Scenario-based modeling is emerging as a key technology in software development because scenarios are easy to describe and understand, naturally describing the real world, and highly used in several development phases. Scenario-Based Software Modeling (SBSM) represents scenarios with a formal method, and then integrates each scenario into a global one excluding redundant, incomplete, and inconsistent elements. An issue which is not yet proposed a clear solution in SBSM is the handling of different abstraction levels. In the existing proposals, this problem is hidden with an implicit assumption that all such scenarios have the same abstraction levels, which we believe to be unrealistic. In our research, we propose a Hierarchical Object-Oriented Petri Net (HOONet) as a method to specify the scenarios, and also suggest a method to integrate scenarios including different abstraction levels as well as redundancy, incompleteness, and inconsistency. Coordinating abstraction levels of scenarios can be achieved by considering scenario models as state-based transition models and verifying the transition models with respect to behavioral equivalence. In order to show the effectiveness of our suggestion, overall processes of SBSM using HOONet are explained with a practical example.
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Zhai, Yang, Yufei Zhang, Zhibin Du, Bohua Sun, Yingxin Liu, Shuo Chen, and Chen Chen. "Research on the Data Collection and Scenario Generation Method for Automated Vehicles." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2665, no. 1 (December 1, 2023): 012002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2665/1/012002.

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Abstract Automated vehicles should be tested before they can be driven on the road, and the data collection and scenario generation is of great significance for the functional verification and development of automated vehicles. This research focuses on the methods for data collection and scenario generation. The data collection system is established to form industry recognized standards for the data collection. The data collection platform uses vehicles which are equipped with sensors. Based on functions of automated vehicles, functional scenarios, logical scenarios and specific scenarios are established in sequence. Specific scenarios are obtained by Monte Carlo random sampling with the probability density distribution to improve the efficiency of simulation testings. Results show that the method of data collection and scenario generation is reasonable and the scenarios based on the real world can be generated to verify the effectiveness of the automated vehicles.
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Nault, E., and E. Cattin. "To renovate or to reconstruct – A comparative life-cycle assessment study over an existing building in Fribourg, Switzerland." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2600, no. 15 (November 1, 2023): 152014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2600/15/152014.

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Abstract This study presents a simple and agile yet holistic comparative assessment of the impact, in terms of non-renewable cumulative energy demand (nrCED) and global warming potential (GWP), of two envisioned scenarios for the future of an existing administrative building located in Fribourg, Switzerland: its demolition and reconstruction versus its in-depth renovation. Based on our set of hypotheses, results show that over all life-cycle phases (construction and operation) and the building’s lifetime, the renovation scenario’s GWP is 540 kgCO2-eq/m2 lower than that of the reconstruction scenario, corresponding to a 50% savings. In terms of nrCED, the difference is of about 2 MWh/m2, a 45% savings in the renovation scenario. Both scenarios are found to comply with the SIA 2040 target values. These results, including findings on the most impactful elements, provide useful quantitative information for the decision-making and design team in their next steps toward defining the project.
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