Relevant bibliographies by topics / Scenarios

Academic literature on the topic 'Scenarios'

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Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 30 July 2024

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Journal articles on the topic "Scenarios"

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Jo, Hanghun, Seong-A. Kim, and Heungsoon Kim. "Forecasting the Reduction in Urban Air Pollution by Expansion of Market Shares of Eco-Friendly Vehicles: A Focus on Seoul, Korea." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 22 (November 19, 2022): 15314. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192215314.

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Due to global climate change, various countries have agreed upon the use of conventions. In this study, the eco-friendly vehicular policy on carbon neutrality implemented in Seoul, Korea, was examined. To this end, various policy-based scenarios were set, and the changes in automotive exhaust gas emissions were evaluated and compared. The evaluation method combined macroscopic and microscopic emission models as its analysis framework. Micro-traffic data available in Korea were used for analyses, and the results for all autonomous districts were derived to cover the entire area of Seoul. The findings confirmed that the most effective measure is the initial replacement of old, mid-size, or large diesel passenger cars with eco-friendly vehicles (Middle-sized: Scenario 2-1 5.52%, Scenario 2-2 6.86%, Scenario 3-1 80.93%, and Scenario 3-2 83.98%). The replacement of old vehicles exhibited the highest effect in all tested scenarios, while the initial replacement of diesel vehicles was more effective than the replacement of gasoline and liquified petroleum gas vehicles (Diesel: Scenario2-1 6.64%, Scenario 2-2 8.21%, Scenario3-1 86.23%, and Scenario 3-2 90.51%). Among the autonomous districts of Seoul, the Gangnam-gu area exhibited the largest emission-reduced effect among all the tested scenarios (Gangnam-gu: Scenario 2-1 5.80%, Scenario 2-2 6.74%, Scenario 3-1 80.44%, and Scenario 3-2 82.62%). Overall, it was demonstrated that the findings of this study may have significant policy implications in terms of urban emission changes pertaining to transportation.
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Murphy, Michael D., and Don R. Day. "A scenario for writing creative scenarios." Socio-Ecological Practice Research 3, no. 2 (June 2021): 207–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s42532-021-00081-8.

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Uchitel, Sebastian, Jeff Kramer, and Jeff Magee. "Negative scenarios for implied scenario elicitation." ACM SIGSOFT Software Engineering Notes 27, no. 6 (November 2002): 109–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/605466.605484.

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Xiao, Yang, Qinli Xiong, and Kaiwen Pan. "What Is Left for Our Next Generation? Integrating Ecosystem Services into Regional Policy Planning in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China." Sustainability 11, no. 1 (December 20, 2018): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11010003.

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Land use/Land cover (LULC) changes as a result of policy planning influence ecosystem structures, processes, and functions, which are the basis for providing a wide range of ecosystem services (ES). There is an increasing consensus about the importance of integrating ES into ecological policy but quantifying the potential impacts of different policy on ES has proven difficult. We designed a remote sensing, geographic information system and scenario analysis-based approach to estimate and analyze the relationship between ES (soil conservation and carbon sequestration) and ecological policy designed to improve human welfare in the Chongqing municipality in the upper reaches of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China; a densely populated, highly modified watershed with serious soil erosion and flood hazard. Three alternative scenarios in 2050 were modeled for the Three Gorges Reservoir Area watershed. The model GEOMOD was used to predict future LULC changes due to policy planning. The ES models (Universal Soil Loss Equation model and Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model) were designed to inform decisions, with an aim to align economic forces with conservation. We examine policy effectiveness by comparing scenarios for 2050 (Scenario1: Maintain current policy with no considerations of ES; Scenario2: Integrate ES into policy planning; Scenario3: Integrate ES into policy planning in view of the need of local people). Scenario-based LULC change analysis revealed that if the current afforestation policy continues (scenario 1), total ES would be further increased in 2050 due to expansion of forest cover. However, by targeting policy to improve ES provision (scenarios 2 and 3), ecological risks of soil loss can be significantly reduced and carbon sequestration enhanced. Scenario 3, thus, provided the best future environmental development scenario considering the need of local people in each region for ES. This scenario will theoretically help the Three Gorges Dam to harvest more ecological benefits through improvements in soil conservation and carbon sequestration. This study highlights the observation that including ES in policy planning and has a great potential to generate opportunities to maximize ES. This study highlights that including ES in policy planning has a great potential to generate opportunities to maximize ES. Hence, there is a need to encourage proper implementation of ecological policy to maintain and improve ES.
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Freeman, Oliver, and Hugh M. Pattinson. "Exploring client scenarios associated with scenario planning." Futures 42, no. 4 (May 2010): 304–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.016.

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Chapagain, Kamal, Samundra Gurung, Pisut Kulthanavit, and Somsak Kittipiyakul. "Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting Using Deep Neural Networks: An Analysis for Thai Data." Applied System Innovation 6, no. 6 (October 27, 2023): 100. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/asi6060100.

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Electricity demand forecasting plays a significant role in energy markets. Accurate prediction of electricity demand is the key factor in optimizing power generation and consumption, saving energy resources, and determining energy prices. However, integrating energy mix scenarios, including solar and wind power, which are highly nonlinear and seasonal, into an existing grid increases the uncertainty of generation, creating additional challenges for precise forecasting. To tackle such challenges, state-of-the-art methods and algorithms have been implemented in the literature. Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based deep learning models can effectively handle the information of long time-series data. Based on patterns identified in datasets, various scenarios can be developed. In this paper, several models were constructed and tested using deep AI networks in two different scenarios: Scenario1 used data for weekdays, excluding holidays, while Scenario2 used the data without exclusion. To find the optimal configuration, the models were trained and tested within a large space of alternative hyperparameters. We used an Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based Feedforward Neural Network (FNN) to show the minimum prediction error for Scenario1 and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN)-based Gated Recurrent Network (GRU) to show the minimum prediction error for Scenario2. From our results, it can be concluded that the weekday dataset in Scenario1 prepared by excluding weekends and holidays provides better forecasting accuracy compared to the holistic dataset approach used in Scenario2. However, Scenario2 is necessary for predicting the demand on weekends and holidays.
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Wang, Xiao Lu. "Charging Characteristics of Electric Vehicles and Charging Cost Analysis." Advanced Materials Research 953-954 (June 2014): 1363–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.953-954.1363.

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This paper investigates the “Vehicle-charging mode” and the “Battery-changing mode” of the electric vehicles. Firstly, it analyzes the vehicle-charging time, the battery-changing time and the charging power under two modes. Secondly, this paper searches into different sorts of charging and sets up three scenarios based on the differences: scenario1, disorderly; scenario2, continuous; scenario 3, off-peak. Thirdly, this paper considers the combination of generator sets that reaches the requirements of electric vehicle charging based on the characteristics of different sorts of charging, concerns the increased fuel costs, O&M costs and start cost generated along, and draws conclusions with the comparison of the elements.
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Anggara Purba, Reno Dias, M. Iqbal Sabit, and Joko Sulistio. "Evaluation of SME (Small Medium Enterprise) production system with discrete system simulation method." MATEC Web of Conferences 154 (2018): 01067. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201815401067.

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Like manufacturing companies that have flowshop production lines, SME facing the amount of flow time and makespan. Unfulfilled production targets, buildup on some machines that result in other machines being idle, increasing waiting times across multiple machines, and poor performance of workers are a series of problems facing SME. This article uses a discrete system simulation method to analyze and evaluate SME production lines to improve performance. Simulation is an appropriate tool used when experiments are needed in order to find the best response from system components. From the results of modeling and simulation done found the root of the problem is due to accumulation that occurs in one machine and the lack of utility of the operator in producing bags. So do the experimental design with 3 scenarios on the system that have been modeled and obtained some solutions that can be offered to solve the problem. Furthermore, after the alternative selection is obtained the best scenario based on the alternative selection test is the scenario3 by adding 2 new machines and 1 new operator on the production line obtained a significant output increase compared to other scenarios of approximately 30%. While the best scenario based on the minimum cost is the scenario2 by adding 2 new operators obtained output that is not much different than the scenario3. However, it has not been able to solve a series of problems facing SME. Therefore, the results of this study to solve a series of problems faced by SME is to add facilities in the production line of 2 new machines and 1 operator (scenario3).
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Wilkinson, Angela, and Esther Eidinow. "Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology." Environmental Research Letters 3, no. 4 (October 2008): 045017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/045017.

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Golub, Bennett, David Greenberg, and Ronald Ratcliffe. "Market-Driven Scenarios: An Approach for Plausible Scenario Construction." Journal of Portfolio Management 44, no. 5 (April 5, 2018): 6–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2018.1.079.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Scenarios"

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Holt, Jim, Kevin Metzger, Brandon Mizell, John Ross, Shelby Sheldon-Deuser, Luke Spencer, Katherine Stone, and Richard Veerman. "MIPS Scenarios." Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2018. https://dc.etsu.edu/etsu-works/6467.

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Rosales, Jorge Enrique. "Revolving Scenarios." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/32872.

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Revolving Scenarios is an arts-performing center located in San Juan, Puerto Rico, intended to hold different cultural / theatrical and social events. The project is presented as a sequence of acts or events that directs the observer through its different spaces. Revolving scenarios becomes a performing piece which tries to recreate a monumental and dramatic architectural spectacle in itself. It is a play performing in the landscape where the visitors / spectators become the leading actor. Due to the nature of the buildingâ s geometry and location (inspired by the siteâ s curvilinear lines and the nautilus shell), the project continuously provides multiple opportunities for scenic tropes from the indoor / outdoors. Therefore, views revolve around the landscape, different theatre halls which continuously change and revolve around the theatrical spectacles. As humans, we constantly move and live among scenarios that continuously change, evolve and revolve around ordinary life. The performing arts center becomes a microcosm of the macrocosmic everyday performances occurring in Puerto Rico. The performing piece allows us to expand our vision, vision of the worldâ ¦our worldviews. The thesis allowed discovering poetic architectural views revolving around the theatre, the arts and culture which are constantly changing and evolving along time.
Master of Architecture
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Uchitel, Sebastian. "Incremental elaboration of scenario-based specifications and behaviour models using implied scenarios." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2003. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.401938.

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Broms, Engblom Jacob. "Pattern Extraction : Scenarios." Thesis, Kungl. Konsthögskolan, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kkh:diva-505.

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"Pattern Extraction - Scenarios" is a documentation of experiences inside of the collective subconscious that is the internet and an attempt at understanding and highlighting mechanisms and effects of algorithmic governance and cultural automation.
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Imamoglu, Berker Yalin. "Operation Of Cascade Dams Considering Various Scenarios And Financial Analysis Of Scenarios." Master's thesis, METU, 2013. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12615413/index.pdf.

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In assuring the energy supply of Turkey, hydroelectric energy plays one of the most important roles in plans formulated to realize equilibrium between energy production and consumption. Hydroelectric power plants on Murat River, a tributary of Euphrates, is a part of the development plan for energy production. Operation of four dams in cascade on Murat River are simulated by using program package HECResSim. For this purpose, ten scenarios are formulated to utilize the hydraulic potential of Murat River between the elevations of 870 m 1225 m. This study provides detailed financial analyses of scenarios and shows how HEC-ResSim program can be used in formulation of alternative scenarios. Electric energy storage requirement due to the rising demand for peaking power is creating a completely new market value, which is also increasing the attractiveness of pumped storage power plants. The results of the simulation performed in Scenario 10 in which two pumped storage power plants are considered have 15% higher internal rate of return value than the other scenarios with conventional turbines. Results demonstrate the increasing attractiveness of the cascade system with reversible pump turbines.
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Penim, Ana Sofia Conceição. "Integrating the theme approach with aspectual scenarios." Master's thesis, FCT - UNL, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/1962.

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Dissertação de Mestrado em Engenharia Informática
Aspect-oriented requirements engineering emerged to deal with crosscutting requirements, i.e. requirements that are scattered in the requirements document and tangled with other requirements. There are several aspect-oriented requirements approaches - Theme, proposed by Baniassad and Clarke [7], is one of them. This approach is characterized by the identification of a set of actions associated to verbs present in requirements documentation. These actions are then analyzed in order to identify crosscutting behaviours, each one constituting a potential theme. One problem with this approach is that the composition mechanism is not expressive enough even when the Theme models are integrated to analysis models (e.g. UML diagrams). The MATA approach [24] provides powerful composition mechanisms, based on graph transformations that used UML models, in particular behaviour models (e.g. sequence or activity like diagrams). These models express scenarios that constitute a very popular and used technique to specify a system’s behaviour. Therefore, the result of the integration of these two approaches will be synergetic. Also, considering that in a system not only the expected situations happen, scenarios can also be used to illustrate unexpected situations, making their treatment possible. Negative scenarios are thus also considered, besides the positive ones: their representation is similar, only differing from an optimist and mostly assumed vision of the system’s behavior. These scenarios could be identified with Theme and mapped into MATA. In summary, the objective of this dissertation is twofold: firstly, we will integrate Theme with Aspectual Scenarios (specified in MATA); secondly, we will extend Theme to include the modeling of negative scenarios. The result will be the synergy between two complementary techniques, including the specification of undesirable situations, where behavioral and structural aspect modeling are integrated.
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Dreborg, Karl Henrik. "Scenarios and structural uncertainty." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Infrastructure, 2004. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-3697.

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Hoyle, Richard A. "Scenarios, discourse and translation." Thesis, University of Surrey, 2001. http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/844384/.

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This thesis demonstrates how new theories concerning language and cognition can be applied to our understanding of specific languages, and to the task of translation. Section one documents the theory of scenarios, how people store, categorize, and access information in the brain, and demonstrates how these mental scenarios are reflected in the grammar and lexicon of texts. It shows how scenarios shared by speaker and audience allow effective communication without enormous verbal detail, and explains how miscommunication occurs, especially across cultural and linguistic divides. Section two applies scenario theory to the Greek New Testament, demonstrating how specific grammatical forms, such as Participles and the Article, are linked to scenarios. This affects discourse analysis and exegesis, by giving textual evidence that certain scenarios are open, and thus certain information is implicit and intended to be communicated. Scenario theory is also applied to lexical choice, providing a theoretical framework for determining the topic of a passage, and clarifying exegetical decisions. Section three applies scenario theory to texts in the Parkari language of Pakistan. This not only helps in textual analysis, explaining the choice and significance of certain grammatical forms, but also demonstrates that although Parkari, like New Testament Greek and English, uses different grammatical forms depending on whether a scenario is currently open or not, the specific forms used differ between languages. Section four shows how the mismatch of mental scenarios, between original speakers of New Testament Greek and modem Parkaris, highlights potential problem areas in translation. It also suggests possible solutions to such problems, by using scenario theory not only to determine the author's intended meaning, but also to provide strategies for communicating that same meaning in translation, specifically addressing the issue of what information is implicit in the source text, and when and how to make it explicit in translation.
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Dolnicar, Sara, Friedrich Leisch, and Andreas Weingessel. "Artificial binary data scenarios." SFB Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 1998. http://epub.wu.ac.at/846/1/document.pdf.

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This manual describes artificial binary data scenarios. These data sets can be used to compare the performance of algorithms for market segmentation. The data sets described in this manual are available as packages for R (Splus) and as ASCII-files under htttp://www.ci.tuwien.ac.at/SFB/. (author's abstract)
Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"
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Au, Oliver T. S. "Requirements specification using concrete scenarios." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2009. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/6642.

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The precision of formal specifications allows us to prove program correctness. Even if formal methods are not used throughout the software project, formalisation improves our understanding of the problem. Formal specifications are amenable to automated analysis and consistency checking. However using them is challenging. Customers do not understand formal notations. Specifiers have difficulty tackling large problems. Once systems are built, formal specifications quickly become outdated during software maintenance. A method of developing formal specifications using concrete scenarios is proposed to tackle the disadvantages just mentioned. A concrete scenario describes system behaviour with successive steps. The pre- and post-states of scenario steps are expressed with actual data rather than variables. Concrete scenarios are expressed in a natural language or formal notation. They increase customer involvement in the creation of formal specifications. Scenarios may be ranked by priorities allowing specifiers to focus on a small part of the system. Formal specifications are constructed incrementally. New requirements are also captured in concrete scenarios which guide the modification of formal specifications. On one hand, concrete scenarios assist the creation and maintenance of formal specifications. On the other hand, they facilitate program correctness proofs without using conventional formal specifications. This is achieved by adding implementation details to customer scenarios. The resulting developer scenarios, encapsulating decisions of data structures and algorithms, are generalised to operation schemas. With the implementation details, the schemas written in formal notations are programs rather than specifications.
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Books on the topic "Scenarios"

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Heijden, Kees Van der. Scenarios. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 2005.

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Vanoye, Francis. Scenarios modeles, modeles de scenarios. Paris: Nathan, 1991.

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Tom, Leney, and European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training, eds. Scenarios toolkit. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2004.

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Mariam, Alizade Alcira, and International Psychoanalytical Association. Committee on Women and Psychoanalysis, eds. Masculine scenarios. London: Karnac, 2003.

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Berlatsky, Noah. Doomsday scenarios. Detroit: Greenhaven Press, 2011.

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Oscar, Hijuelos, and PaceWildenstein (Firm), eds. Rauschenberg: Scenarios. New York: PaceWildenstein, 2005.

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Network, ASEF Public Health. ASEF-ASAP scenarios: Accurate scenarios, active preparedness. Singapore: Asia-Europe Foundation, 2011.

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Young, Laurie. Scenarios in Marketing. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 2007.

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Costola, Sergio, and Olly Crick. Commedia dell'Arte Scenarios. London: Routledge, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003100676.

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Ringland, Gill, and Laurie Young, eds. Scenarios in Marketing. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9780470666265.

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Book chapters on the topic "Scenarios"

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Reisig, Wolfgang. "Scenarios." In Understanding Petri Nets, 51–56. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-33278-4_5.

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Maier, Ronald. "Scenarios." In Knowledge Management Systems, 514–42. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-24779-1_17.

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Ressenig, Alfred. "Scenarios." In Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 491. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bfb0013440.

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Zheng, Jiaran. "Scenarios." In New Feminism in China, 143–51. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-0777-4_8.

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Maier, Ronald. "Scenarios." In Knowledge Management Systems, 436–64. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-04380-6_17.

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VanDeveer, Stacy, and Simone Pulver. "Scenarios." In Essential Concepts of Global Environmental Governance, 227–29. Second edition. | Abingdon, Oxon; New York: Routledge, 2021.: Routledge, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780367816681-93.

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Branagan, Anna, Melanie Cross, and Stephen Parsons. "Scenarios." In Language for Behaviour and Emotions, 139–261. Other titles: Language for behavior and emotions Description: First Edition. | Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge, 2020.: Routledge, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780429318320-5.

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Plösch, Reinhold. "Scenarios." In Contracts, Scenarios and Prototypes, 57–77. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-18564-9_4.

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Pohl, Klaus. "Scenarios." In Requirements Engineering, 139–209. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-12578-2_8.

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Christoph, M., B. Reichert, and A. Jaeger. "Scenarios." In Impacts of Global Change on the Hydrological Cycle in West and Northwest Africa, 394–448. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-12957-5_12.

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Conference papers on the topic "Scenarios"

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Uchitel, Sebastian, Jeff Kramer, and Jeff Magee. "Negative scenarios for implied scenario elicitation." In the tenth ACM SIGSOFT symposium. New York, New York, USA: ACM Press, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/587051.587069.

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Osawa, Keitaro, and Atsushi Ohnishi. "Scenario Similarity Map for Visualizing Classified Scenarios." In Second International Workshop on Requirements Engineering Visualization (REV 2007). IEEE, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/rev.2007.5.

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Ren, Hongping, Hui Gao, He Chen, and Guangzhen Liu. "A Survey of Autonomous Driving Scenarios and Scenario Databases." In 2022 9th International Conference on Dependable Systems and Their Applications (DSA). IEEE, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/dsa56465.2022.00107.

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Waern, Annika, Paulina Rajkowska, Karin B. Johansson, Jon Bac, Jocelyn Spence, and Anders Sundnes Løvlie. "Sensitizing Scenarios." In CHI '20: CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems. New York, NY, USA: ACM, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3313831.3376620.

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Huh, Jina, Mark S. Ackerman, Mark W. Newman, and Ayse G. Buyuktur. "Progressive scenarios." In the 16th ACM international conference. New York, New York, USA: ACM Press, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/1880071.1880077.

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Ljungblad, Sara, and Lars Erik Holmquist. "Transfer scenarios." In the SIGCHI Conference. New York, New York, USA: ACM Press, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/1240624.1240738.

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Nathan, Lisa P., Predrag V. Klasnja, and Batya Friedman. "Value scenarios." In CHI '07 extended abstracts. New York, New York, USA: ACM Press, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/1240866.1241046.

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Coughlan, Tim, Michael Brown, Glyn Lawson, Richard Mortier, Robert J. Houghton, and Murray Goulden. "Tailored scenarios." In CHI '13 Extended Abstracts on Human Factors in Computing Systems. New York, New York, USA: ACM Press, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/2468356.2468417.

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Wolf, Christine T. "Explainability scenarios." In IUI '19: 24th International Conference on Intelligent User Interfaces. New York, NY, USA: ACM, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3301275.3302317.

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Yuille, Jeremy, Laurene Vaughan, Markus Rittenbruch, Stephen Viller, and Ian MacColl. "Spontaneous scenarios." In Proceeding of the twenty-sixth annual CHI conference extended abstracts. New York, New York, USA: ACM Press, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/1358628.1358642.

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Reports on the topic "Scenarios"

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Moran, Kevin, Dalibor Stevanovic, and Stéphane Surprenant. Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts. CIRANO, May 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.54932/dcxi8467.

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This paper discusses the usefulness of risk scenarios – forecasts conditional on specific future paths for economic variables and shocks – for monitoring the Canadian economy. To do so, we use a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach to produce macroeconomic forecasts conditional on four risk scenarios: high oil prices, a US recession, a tight labor market, and a restrictive monetary policy. The results show that these scenarios represent significant risk factors for the evolution of the Canadian economy. In particular, the high-oil-price scenario is beneficial for the Canadian economy, while a US recession induces a significant slowdown. The very tight labor market scenario leads to additional price increases relative to benchmark and the restrictive monetary policy scenario increases the unemployment rate while lowering the inflation rate slightly.
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Sullivan, Patrick, Wesley Cole, Nate Blair, Eric Lantz, Venkat Krishnan, Trieu Mai, David Mulcahy, and Gian Porro. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), July 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1215209.

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Even, R., and N. Ismail. Conferencing Scenarios. RFC Editor, August 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.17487/rfc4597.

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Langner, Linda L., Linda A. Joyce, David N. Wear, Jeffrey P. Prestemon, David Coulson, and Claire B. O’Dea. Future scenarios. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, May 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.2737/rmrs-gtr-412.

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Baqaee, David, Emmanuel Farhi, Michael Mina, and James Stock. Reopening Scenarios. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, May 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w27244.

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Aabakken, J., and W. Short. Domestic Energy Scenarios. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), January 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/15003224.

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Parlatore, Cecilia, and Thomas Philippon. Designing Stress Scenarios. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w29901.

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Bentley Tammero, L., P. Hullinger, T. Dahlgren, S. Hazlett, D. Slone, and S. Smith. Software Requirements Specification: Scenario bank for the storage of simulated epidemiological scenarios. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), July 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1601949.

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None, None. Description of GPRA08 scenarios. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), January 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1216521.

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Tritten, James J. Scenarios, Simulations, and Games. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, October 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada201633.

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