Journal articles: 'Scenario'

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Jo, Hanghun, Seong-A. Kim, and Heungsoon Kim. "Forecasting the Reduction in Urban Air Pollution by Expansion of Market Shares of Eco-Friendly Vehicles: A Focus on Seoul, Korea." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 22 (November 19, 2022): 15314. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192215314.

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Due to global climate change, various countries have agreed upon the use of conventions. In this study, the eco-friendly vehicular policy on carbon neutrality implemented in Seoul, Korea, was examined. To this end, various policy-based scenarios were set, and the changes in automotive exhaust gas emissions were evaluated and compared. The evaluation method combined macroscopic and microscopic emission models as its analysis framework. Micro-traffic data available in Korea were used for analyses, and the results for all autonomous districts were derived to cover the entire area of Seoul. The findings confirmed that the most effective measure is the initial replacement of old, mid-size, or large diesel passenger cars with eco-friendly vehicles (Middle-sized: Scenario 2-1 5.52%, Scenario 2-2 6.86%, Scenario 3-1 80.93%, and Scenario 3-2 83.98%). The replacement of old vehicles exhibited the highest effect in all tested scenarios, while the initial replacement of diesel vehicles was more effective than the replacement of gasoline and liquified petroleum gas vehicles (Diesel: Scenario2-1 6.64%, Scenario 2-2 8.21%, Scenario3-1 86.23%, and Scenario 3-2 90.51%). Among the autonomous districts of Seoul, the Gangnam-gu area exhibited the largest emission-reduced effect among all the tested scenarios (Gangnam-gu: Scenario 2-1 5.80%, Scenario 2-2 6.74%, Scenario 3-1 80.44%, and Scenario 3-2 82.62%). Overall, it was demonstrated that the findings of this study may have significant policy implications in terms of urban emission changes pertaining to transportation.

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Xiao, Yang, Qinli Xiong, and Kaiwen Pan. "What Is Left for Our Next Generation? Integrating Ecosystem Services into Regional Policy Planning in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China." Sustainability 11, no. 1 (December 20, 2018): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11010003.

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Land use/Land cover (LULC) changes as a result of policy planning influence ecosystem structures, processes, and functions, which are the basis for providing a wide range of ecosystem services (ES). There is an increasing consensus about the importance of integrating ES into ecological policy but quantifying the potential impacts of different policy on ES has proven difficult. We designed a remote sensing, geographic information system and scenario analysis-based approach to estimate and analyze the relationship between ES (soil conservation and carbon sequestration) and ecological policy designed to improve human welfare in the Chongqing municipality in the upper reaches of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China; a densely populated, highly modified watershed with serious soil erosion and flood hazard. Three alternative scenarios in 2050 were modeled for the Three Gorges Reservoir Area watershed. The model GEOMOD was used to predict future LULC changes due to policy planning. The ES models (Universal Soil Loss Equation model and Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model) were designed to inform decisions, with an aim to align economic forces with conservation. We examine policy effectiveness by comparing scenarios for 2050 (Scenario1: Maintain current policy with no considerations of ES; Scenario2: Integrate ES into policy planning; Scenario3: Integrate ES into policy planning in view of the need of local people). Scenario-based LULC change analysis revealed that if the current afforestation policy continues (scenario 1), total ES would be further increased in 2050 due to expansion of forest cover. However, by targeting policy to improve ES provision (scenarios 2 and 3), ecological risks of soil loss can be significantly reduced and carbon sequestration enhanced. Scenario 3, thus, provided the best future environmental development scenario considering the need of local people in each region for ES. This scenario will theoretically help the Three Gorges Dam to harvest more ecological benefits through improvements in soil conservation and carbon sequestration. This study highlights the observation that including ES in policy planning and has a great potential to generate opportunities to maximize ES. This study highlights that including ES in policy planning has a great potential to generate opportunities to maximize ES. Hence, there is a need to encourage proper implementation of ecological policy to maintain and improve ES.

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Murphy, Michael D., and Don R. Day. "A scenario for writing creative scenarios." Socio-Ecological Practice Research 3, no. 2 (June 2021): 207–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s42532-021-00081-8.

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Uchitel, Sebastian, Jeff Kramer, and Jeff Magee. "Negative scenarios for implied scenario elicitation." ACM SIGSOFT Software Engineering Notes 27, no. 6 (November 2002): 109–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/605466.605484.

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Priess, Joerg A., Jennifer Hauck, Roy Haines-Young, Rob Alkemade, Maryia Mandryk, Clara Veerkamp, Bela Gyorgyi, et al. "New EU-scale environmental scenarios until 2050 – Scenario process and initial scenario applications." Ecosystem Services 29 (February 2018): 542–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.08.006.

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Freeman, Oliver, and Hugh M. Pattinson. "Exploring client scenarios associated with scenario planning." Futures 42, no. 4 (May 2010): 304–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.016.

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Anggreeni, Irene, and Mascha C. van der Voort. "Tracing the Scenarios in Scenario-Based Product Design: A Study to Understand Scenario Generation." Design Principles and Practices: An International Journal—Annual Review 2, no. 4 (2008): 123–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.18848/1833-1874/cgp/v02i04/37564.

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Moats, Jason B., Thomas J. Chermack, and Larry M. Dooley. "Using Scenarios to Develop Crisis Managers: Applications of Scenario Planning and Scenario-Based Training." Advances in Developing Human Resources 10, no. 3 (June 2008): 397–424. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1523422308316456.

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Nashih, AM Sa’dun, Kuncoro Harto Widodo, and Dyah Ismoyowati. "Inventory Level Analysis of Horticultural Commodities Exported by PT BSL from Central Java Indonesia to Singapore." KnE Life Sciences 3, no. 3 (January 1, 2016): 129. http://dx.doi.org/10.18502/kls.v3i3.407.

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Horticultural commodities, in Indonesia, are one of the main clusters of export commodities. The demand of the commodities is relatively high due to the high economic level of consumers in Singapore. The exporter, e.g., PT BSL, had difficulties to meet the demand of Singapore’s importer. This problem will be analyzed with inventory system in the supply chain of vegetables and fruits exported from Central Java Indonesia to Singapore. To identify the problem, we combine a dynamic system approach and its validation. The data on existing conditions (with the level of rejection = 20%) were then formulated and modeled with two alternative scenarios, scenario1 and 2. In scenario 1, the level of rejection was set at the level of 10%, while scenario2 at the level of 30%. Based on the simulation results, it was found that the average level of inventory in the scenario 1 was at 661.9 kg per day, while in scenario 2 were 112.34 kg per day.Keywords: dynamic systems, horticultural commodities, inventory, supply chain

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Wang, Xiao Lu. "Charging Characteristics of Electric Vehicles and Charging Cost Analysis." Advanced Materials Research 953-954 (June 2014): 1363–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.953-954.1363.

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This paper investigates the “Vehicle-charging mode” and the “Battery-changing mode” of the electric vehicles. Firstly, it analyzes the vehicle-charging time, the battery-changing time and the charging power under two modes. Secondly, this paper searches into different sorts of charging and sets up three scenarios based on the differences: scenario1, disorderly; scenario2, continuous; scenario 3, off-peak. Thirdly, this paper considers the combination of generator sets that reaches the requirements of electric vehicle charging based on the characteristics of different sorts of charging, concerns the increased fuel costs, O&M costs and start cost generated along, and draws conclusions with the comparison of the elements.

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Yusuf, Sri Malahayati. "MODEL OF SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES APPLICATION BASED ON DISTRICT SPATIAL PLANNING IN MAMASA WATERSHED, SOUTH SULAWESI." Geoplanning: Journal of Geomatics and Planning 4, no. 2 (October 13, 2017): 263. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/geoplanning.4.2.263-272.

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Depletion of watershed carrying capacity cannot be omitted from mismanagement of the watershed. The integration between SWAT model and remote sensing data are able to identify, assess, and evaluate watershed problem as well as a tool to apply the mitigation of the problem. The aim of this study was to arrange the scenario of watershed management, and decide the best recommendation of sustainable watershed management of Mamasa Sub Watershed. The best recommendation was decided by hydrology parameters, e.i. surface runoff, sediment, and runoff coefficient. Hydrology characteristics of Mamasa Sub Watershed was analyzed based on land use data of year 2012 and climate data for period of 2010-2012. The scenarios were application of bunch and mulch in slope 1-15%; bunch terrace (scenario 1), mulch and strip grass in slope 15-25% (scenario 2), alley cropping in slope 25-40% (scenario 3), and combination scenario 1, 2, 3 with agroforestry in slope > 40% (scenario4). Surface runoff value of Mamasa Sub Watershed is 581.35 mm, while lateral flow, groundwater flow, runoff coefficient, and sediment yield of 640.72 mm, 228.17 mm, 0.29, and 187.213 ton/ha respectively. Based on the scenarios simulation, the fourth scenario was able to reduce surface runoff and sediment yield of 33.441% and of 51.213%, while the runoff coefficient declined to 0.194. Thereby, the fourth scenario is recommended to be applied in Mamasa Sub Watershed so that the sustainability in the watershed can be achieved.

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Yusuf, Sri Malahayati. "Model of Soil and Water Conservation Measures Application based on District Spatial Planning in Mamasa Watershed, South Sulawesi." Geoplanning: Journal of Geomatics and Planning 4, no. 2 (October 13, 2017): 263. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/geoplanning.4.2.263-274.

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Depletion of watershed carrying capacity cannot be omitted from mismanagement of the watershed. The integration between SWAT model and remote sensing data are able to identify, assess, and evaluate watershed problem as well as a tool to apply the mitigation of the problem. The aim of this study was to arrange the scenario of watershed management, and decide the best recommendation of sustainable watershed management of Mamasa Sub Watershed. The best recommendation was decided by hydrology parameters, e.i. surface runoff, sediment, and runoff coefficient. Hydrology characteristics of Mamasa Sub Watershed was analyzed based on land use data of year 2012 and climate data for period of 2010-2012. The scenarios were application of bunch and mulch in slope 1-15%; bunch terrace (scenario 1), mulch and strip grass in slope 15-25% (scenario 2), alley cropping in slope 25-40% (scenario 3), and combination scenario 1, 2, 3 with agroforestry in slope > 40% (scenario4). Surface runoff value of Mamasa Sub Watershed is 581.35 mm, while lateral flow, groundwater flow, runoff coefficient, and sediment yield of 640.72 mm, 228.17 mm, 0.29, and 187.213 ton/ha respectively. Based on the scenarios simulation, the fourth scenario was able to reduce surface runoff and sediment yield of 33.441% and of 51.213%, while the runoff coefficient declined to 0.194. Thereby, the fourth scenario is recommended to be applied in Mamasa Sub Watershed so that the sustainability in the watershed can be achieved.

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Kitessa, Bedassa Dessalegn, Semu Moges Ayalew, Geremew Sahilu Gebrie, and Solomon T/mariam Teferi. "Optimization of urban resources efficiency in the domain of water–energy–food nexus through integrated modeling: a case study of Addis Ababa city." Water Policy 24, no. 2 (January 31, 2022): 397–431. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wp.2022.213.

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Abstract This study aims to understand the long-term (2020–2050) urban water–energy–food (WEF) resources access and sustainability in Addis Ababa city through a nexus modeling approach. Several feasible scenarios in line with improving WEF resources supply and access through conservation, system rehabilitation and technology input are explored. The water system scenarios include rehabilitation and conservation scenario, water supply enhancement scenario, technology input scenario and integrated water improvement scenario. The energy scenario includes energy conservation scenario and new renewable supply enhancement scenarios and integration of both scenarios as integrated energy scenario. The food system scenarios include crop yield productivity and irrigation water use efficiency scenarios of urban agricultural system. The integrated WEF nexus scenario is the integration of all scenarios under one nexus framework. The results are evaluated against baseline scenario. At a system level, the integrated water scenario result provides a water saving potential of 26 and 52% from the baseline scenario by 2030 and 2050, respectively, whereas the integrated energy use scenario saves energy by as much as 22 and 48%. For respective years, under the integrated WEF nexus scenario, the integrated water use scenario for low energy intensity reduces the energy use for urban water system by 23 and 72% from the baseline scenario. Similarly, urban food production have also shown enhancement. Urban food production system in Addis Ababa city is relatively small and does not significantly affect the food import from other parts of the country. Overall, the results WEF nexus modeling approach revealed the importance of exploring integrated nexus approach to sustainable urban water energy and food development and management as a first attempt at the urban scale.

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Anggara Purba, Reno Dias, M. Iqbal Sabit, and Joko Sulistio. "Evaluation of SME (Small Medium Enterprise) production system with discrete system simulation method." MATEC Web of Conferences 154 (2018): 01067. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201815401067.

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Like manufacturing companies that have flowshop production lines, SME facing the amount of flow time and makespan. Unfulfilled production targets, buildup on some machines that result in other machines being idle, increasing waiting times across multiple machines, and poor performance of workers are a series of problems facing SME. This article uses a discrete system simulation method to analyze and evaluate SME production lines to improve performance. Simulation is an appropriate tool used when experiments are needed in order to find the best response from system components. From the results of modeling and simulation done found the root of the problem is due to accumulation that occurs in one machine and the lack of utility of the operator in producing bags. So do the experimental design with 3 scenarios on the system that have been modeled and obtained some solutions that can be offered to solve the problem. Furthermore, after the alternative selection is obtained the best scenario based on the alternative selection test is the scenario3 by adding 2 new machines and 1 new operator on the production line obtained a significant output increase compared to other scenarios of approximately 30%. While the best scenario based on the minimum cost is the scenario2 by adding 2 new operators obtained output that is not much different than the scenario3. However, it has not been able to solve a series of problems facing SME. Therefore, the results of this study to solve a series of problems faced by SME is to add facilities in the production line of 2 new machines and 1 operator (scenario3).

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Freeth, Rebecca, and Scott Drimie. "Participatory Scenario Planning: From Scenario ‘Stakeholders’ to Scenario ‘Owners’." Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development 58, no. 4 (June 30, 2016): 32–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2016.1186441.

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Savushkin, Sergey, Vladimir Borodin, and Vladimir Tsyganov. "INFORMATION AND LOGICAL COMPONENT OF SCENARIO SIMULATION." ITNOU: Information technologies in science, education and management 115 (2021): 70–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.47501/itnou.2021.1.70-76.

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This article discusses the possibilities of developing a scenario modeling technology based on an expandable knowledge base, including formulas, indicators, models, calculations, scenari-os, and an information base of indicators. The technology supports a hierarchical structure of models and scenarios. A unified template for the formation of algorithms for the operation of computational programs is presented. The efficiency of this technology is confirmed by soft-ware implementation in the form of a maquette of the system, which has been tested on the calculations of scenarios for the development of the transport complex in the diversified structure of the country's economy.

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Dunne, Robb, Sae Schatz, Stephen M. Fiore, Glenn Martin, and Denise Nicholson. "Scenario-Based Training: Scenario Complexity." Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting 54, no. 27 (September 2010): 2238–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/154193121005402704.

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Overbeek, Timo, Raja Lala, and Johan Jeuring. "Scenario smells: signalling potential problems in dialogue scenarios in a serious game." International Journal of Serious Games 7, no. 4 (December 4, 2020): 51–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.17083/ijsg.v7i4.364.

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Many serious games employ a scripted dialogue for player interaction with a virtual character. In our serious game for one-to-one communication skills training, Communicate, a scenario author develops a structured, scripted scenario as a sequence of interactions between a player and a virtual character. A player is often a student learning communication skills and a virtual character represents a person that a player talks to, e.g. a patient. A player gets a score on her performance after playing a scenario. Scoring is an important aspect of a scenario. As scenarios get more complex, assigning scores in a scenario also gets more complex, and the risk of an incorrect design increases. To determine what kind of challenges scenario authors experience when assigning scores in a scenario, we conduct a structured interview study with a focus group of scenario authors who use Communicate. Based on these challenges, this paper introduces the concept of scenario smells, and investigates how we can support scenario authors in detecting and addressing such scenario smells. A scenario smell is a symptom of a scenario that couldbe an indicator of an error or incorrect design in the scenario. We develop a tool that supports a scenario author by identifying scenario smells in a scenario in Communicate. Scenario authors evaluate the tool and find most of the scenario smells useful.

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Wilkinson, Angela, and Esther Eidinow. "Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology." Environmental Research Letters 3, no. 4 (October 2008): 045017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/045017.

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Golub, Bennett, David Greenberg, and Ronald Ratcliffe. "Market-Driven Scenarios: An Approach for Plausible Scenario Construction." Journal of Portfolio Management 44, no. 5 (April 5, 2018): 6–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2018.1.079.

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Golub, Bennett, David Greenberg, and Ronald Ratcliffe. "Market-Driven Scenarios: An Approach for Plausible Scenario Construction." Journal of Portfolio Management 44, no. 5 (April 30, 2018): 6–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2018.44.5.006.

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Mason, David H., and James Herman. "Scenarios and strategies: making the scenario about the business." Strategy & Leadership 31, no. 1 (February 2003): 23–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/10878570310455024.

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Paltsev, Sergey. "Energy scenarios: the value and limits of scenario analysis." Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment 6, no. 4 (December 28, 2016): e242. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wene.242.

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Salman, Nurcholis. "OPERATIONAL OF SOLID WASTE HANDLING IN SUBANG DISTRICT." Volume 5 No. 2 September 2021 5, no. 2 (September 17, 2021): 91–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.23969/jcbeem.v5i2.4470.

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The operational technique of waste management in Subang Regency uses simulations in the form of three scenarios, namely scenario-1 is a scenario that has been running so far (existing), in which recycling activities have not yet developed, so it is practically only a collection-transport-disposal system. a better scenario than Scenario-1, in which there are already recycling activities in the TPA, both in the formal and informal sectors (scavenging) and Based on the projections for each scenario above, it is found that Scenario-3 is a moderate scenario, because: the volume of waste transportation to the landfill is the minimum, the volume of waste that must be removed to the landfill is also the minimum which automatically has the minimum volume of landfill among the 3 (three) proposed scenarios. This scenario makes the transportation system efficient, but requires a larger investment to facilitate facilities and infrastructure. However, this is not the case in Scenario-1, in this scenario, the budget required for the procurement of facilities and infrastructure is relatively lighter than the needs in the other two scenarios.

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Maslikhina, V. Yu. "Scenario planning for the development of spatial economic and social systems: Methodological approaches." Regional Economics: Theory and Practice 18, no. 10 (October 15, 2020): 1839–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/re.18.10.1839.

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Subject. This article reviews and systematizes methodological approaches to generate scenarios and develop a scenario planning algorithm in relation to spatial socio-economic systems. Objectives. The article aims to analyze and classify scenarios and algorithms of scenario planning, as well as choose and justify an approach to scenario planning of the development of spatial socio-economic systems. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, comparison, and classification. Results. The article clarifies the definitions of Scenario and Scenario Planning and categorizes scenarios according to different criteria. It reveals the gap between the theory and practice of scenario planning in Russian regions. The article also offers certain recommendations on the use of scenarios in regional planning. Conclusions. The article concludes that the hybrid approach in scenario planning of the development of spatial socio-economic systems (countries, regions, cities, municipalities) is more preferable than the exploratory or normative ones.

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Ismail, Syadan Hussein, and Lilies Setiartiti. "Renewable energy integration for lower emission planning and achieving regional energy independence: study in Yogyakarta." E3S Web of Conferences 508 (2024): 02009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202450802009.

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We propose and try to find a model renewable energy integration for lower emission and achieving regional energy independence. The research uses three stages. First, building an energy system model, to analyze the impact of implementing energy efficiency programs. The second stage is developing an integrated model from the energy demand and supply. Finally, arranging a mitigation scenarios to develop a low-carbon energy and achieving energy independence. Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) software was utilized to simulate two scenarios are used to analyze energy demand and supply, namely Baseline scenarios and Mitigation scenarios. Mitigation Scenario is a combination of Energy Efficiency (EE) scenario, Fuel Substitution (FS), mode change scenario (MC), and efficient vehicle (EV) scenario and is used to analyze their impact on energy demand and GHG emissions. The results showed that mitigation scenarios can reduce energy demand by 22.86% when compared to the baseline scenario. In 2050, energy demand based on the mitigation scenario is 147.15 x 103 TJ, higher than based on the baseline scenario, which energy demand is 113.52 x 103 TJ. The cumulative of GHG emission reaches 1,369.37 x 103 Tons of CO2 Equivalent, based on the baseline scenario, can be reduced 13.54% by mitigation scenario. These results are robust. Overall, this research finding provides some possible steps to develop Yogyakarta energy independence and other regions.

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Carlsen, Henrik, E. Anders Eriksson, Karl Henrik Dreborg, Bengt Johansson, and Örjan Bodin. "Systematic exploration of scenario spaces." Foresight 18, no. 1 (March 14, 2016): 59–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-02-2015-0011.

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Purpose – Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios. Findings – The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research. Originality/value – The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios.

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Gauze, Touao Kah Martine, Kouamé Yao Morton, Mélèdje N’diaye Hermann, Sékongo Guénolé Largaton, and Soro Gnéneyougo Emile. "Impacts des changements de l’occupation du sol et des changements climatiques sur le bassin versant de la rivière Davo, Côte d’Ivoire." European Scientific Journal, ESJ 14, no. 33 (November 30, 2018): 408. http://dx.doi.org/10.19044/esj.2018.v14n33p408.

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The main objective of this study is to asssess the impacts of climate change and land cover change on the hydrology of the Davo river basin located in southwestern of Côte d'Ivoire. Two scenarios of climate change (A2 and B2) and two scenarios of land cover called scenario 1 (deforestation) and scenario 2 (reforestation) were established, and streamflows under these scenarios were simulated by the hydrological model CEQUEAU. Each scenario showed distinct variations in streamflows. Regarding the impacts of land cover change, scenario 1 and scenario 2 indicate increases of 10.6% and 1%, respectively. As for the impacts of climate change, climate models predict a very wide range of possible changes in streamflows. The multimodel approach indicates a decrease in streamflows of 0.5% and 2.75% respectively under the A2 and B2 scenarios by 2050. By 2080, streamflows would increase by 14.75% under the scenario A2 and 3.5% under scenario B2. In order to implement adaptation and mitigation strategies, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios should be used, regional climate models should be applied, and combined assessments of the impacts of climate change and land cover should be made.

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de Souza Pinho, Giusilene Costa, João Luiz Calmon, Diego Lima Medeiros, Darli Vieira, and Alencar Bravo. "Wood Waste Management from the Furniture Industry: The Environmental Performances of Recycling, Energy Recovery, and Landfill Treatments." Sustainability 15, no. 20 (October 17, 2023): 14944. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su152014944.

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Proper management of wood waste (WW) from the furniture industry has become an important issue. Life-cycle assessment (LCA) is a tool that is widely used for identifying environmental gains in WW management strategies. Thus, the aim of this research was to perform a comparative LCA, analyzing the environmental aspects and impacts of different WW management scenarios generated in the furniture industry in the state of Espirito Santo, Brazil. To conduct the study, five scenarios were designed: medium-density fiberboard (MDF) production (Scenario 1), medium-density particleboard (MDP) production (Scenario 2), solid ceramic brick production (Scenario 3), heat production in the ceramics industry (Scenario 4), and landfill disposal (Scenario 5). The results showed that compared to Scenarios 3 and 4, Scenarios 1 and 2 are potentially more favorable for disposing of WW. Scenario 1 achieved more environmental benefits in all of the impact categories evaluated. Notably, 1 m3 of MDF stores 1080 kg CO2 eq/m3, which results in a net impact of −849 kg CO2 eq/m3 of MDF. Scenario 5 is the least favorable practice. This research designs scenarios that contribute to reductions in the demand for virgin sources and increases in environmental gains.

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Fathi, Mohammad Reza, Seyed Mohammad Sobhani, Mohammad Hasan Maleki, and Gholamreza Jandaghi. "Future study of textile industry in Iran using the MICMAC and soft operational research methods." foresight 23, no. 4 (March 29, 2021): 439–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-02-2020-0017.

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Purpose This study aims to formulate exploratory scenarios of the textile industry in Iran based on MICMAC and soft operational research methods. Design/methodology/approach In this study, to formulate plausible scenarios, literature reviews and external experts’ opinions of this field have been gathered through the Delphi approach and uncertainty questionnaires. After the utilization of the most important uncertainties, the textile industry’s plausible scenarios have been mapped with the help of experts through co-thinking workshops. Results show that two factors, including the business atmosphere and membership in World Trade Organization (WTO), play a more important role than the other factors. These two factors were considered for the formulation of the scenario. To formulate plausible scenarios, soft systems methodology, which is a kind of soft operational research methods, is applied. Findings Based on the results, four scenarios are presented. These scenarios include the Elysium scenario, Hades scenario, Tatarus scenario and Sisyphus scenario. In the Elysium scenario, the business atmosphere has improved and Iran has been granted membership of the WTO. In Hades scenario, Iran has joined the WTO, but due to the government’s weakness and inactivity and key decision-makers, the required preparations have not been made. In the Tatarus scenario, Iran is not a WTO member and the business atmosphere is disastrous. In the Sisyphus scenario, the government takes reasonable actions toward a better business environment. Originality/value Formulating plausible scenarios of the textile industry is an excellent contribution to the key beneficiaries and actors of this industry so they can present flexible preparation-based programs in the face of circumstances. Future study of the textile industry familiarizes the actors and beneficiaries of this industry with the procedures and the driving forces that influence this industry’s future and it will ascertain various scenarios for the actors of this field.

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Dunnigan, Brian. "Scenario!" Journal of Media Practice 5, no. 1 (January 1, 2004): 59–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1386/jmpr.5.1.59/0.

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Peterson, Andrew M. "Scenario." American Journal of Health-System Pharmacy 53, no. 7 (April 1, 1996): 760. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ajhp/53.7.760.

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Nugrahanto, Candra Arie, Jaka Windarta, and Jaka Aminata. "Analysis of Causality Relationship Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions to Economic Growth based on the LEAP Model Case Study of Energy Consumption in Indonesia 2010-2025)." E3S Web of Conferences 73 (2018): 01002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20187301002.

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This study discusses scenarios and analyzes the causal relationship of energy consumption and CO2 emissions to economic growth in Indonesia period 2010-2025. The modeling scenario is divided into 6 sections, namely BAU scenario, High scenario, Low scenario, High-Low scenario, Low-High scenario and Policy scenario. The result of scenario data is processed by performing statistical data modeling and econometric period 2010-2025. The research method used interpolation method and causality testing method. The tools are used in this research is LEAP and EViews. LEAP is used for energy modeling as well as CO2 emissions and EViews is used to manage data, analyze econometrics and statistics. The results of this study show that economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions at 6 scenario indicate fluctuated competitive growth. This study proves that only 1 scenario has direct causality relationship that is only energy consumption which statistically significant influence economic growth in Policy scenario. For economic growth and CO2 emissions there are 4 scenarios that have direct causality (BAU, High, High -Low, Low-High scenario), 1 scenario has no causality relationship (Low scenario) and 1 scenario has two -way causality relationship (Policy scenario).

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Sadeghi, Sajad, Bahram Saghafian, and Mohsen Najarchi. "Assessment of impacts of change in land use and climatic variables on runoff in Tajan River Basin." Water Supply 20, no. 7 (July 29, 2020): 2779–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/ws.2020.169.

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Abstract The main objective of the present study was to investigate runoff response to climate variables as well as landuse change over the past 30 years in Tajan River Basin, using the SWAT model. After the model calibration, four different scenarios were simulated and compared. Comparison of simulated runoff results determined from different scenarios indicated that climatic variables reduced the amount of runoff while the landuse change increased this amount in most months of the year. Simulated runoff under three landuse scenarios in all months demonstrated that the runoff achieved from scenario 1 was smaller than scenarios 2 and 4. In scenario 4, the runoff amount increased by 3–21% and 0.8–13% in Kordkheil station compared to those of scenario 1 and scenario 2, respectively. Furthermore, the increase in runoff for scenario 4 is 3–19% and 2–12% in Rig Cheshmeh station relative to those of scenario 1 and scenario 2, respectively. Nonetheless, the maximum change in runoff was only 6% under climatic variables. Hence, landuse had more significant impacts on the runoff compared to climatic variables.

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MAKINO, Masayuki, and Atsushi OHNISHI. "Scenario Generation Using Differential Scenario Information." IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems E95-D, no. 4 (2012): 1044–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1587/transinf.e95.d.1044.

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SHIOTA, Eiji, and Atsushi OHNISHI. "Scenario Retrieval Method Using Differential Scenario." IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems E99.D, no. 9 (2016): 2202–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1587/transinf.2015kbp0001.

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Al Hasibi, Rahmat Adiprasetya. "The Analysis of CO2 Emission Reduction Scenarios in Industry Sector of Yogyakarta Province of Indonesia." Semesta Teknika 14, no. 1 (December 16, 2015): 33–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/st.v14i1.568.

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The final energy demand and energy-related CO2 emission in industrial sector of Yogyakarta Province were analyzed in this study. The potential of energy saving and reduction of CO2 emission were estimated. The analysis was based on energy model. The model was constructed by LEAP model that describe the pattern of energy demand in industrial sector. Energy modeling and scenario analysis were used to simulate the impacts of various policies in energy demand and CO2 emission. Three scenarios were implemented in the model. Initially, the model was developed under business as usual (BAU) scenario that include current situation of energy-related activity in industrial sector. 2008 was selected as base year with projection period was terminated in 2025. Then, two alternative scenarios were developed that focus on energy efficiency improvement (EE scenario) and fuel switching to cleaner fuel (FS scenario). The two alternative scenarios were integrated into mitigation scenario. The result of alternative and mitigation scenario compare to BAU scenario in term of the final energy demand and energy-related CO2 emission. The result of the model showed the potential of energy saving by implementing mitigation scenario is 24.16% compare to BAU scenario. The expected reduction of CO2 emission under mitigation scenario is 20.22% compare to BAU scenario.

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Suppanich, Poonnavich, Raksanai Nidhiritdhikrai, and Weerin Wangjiraniran. "Thailand Energy Scenarios to 2035." Advanced Materials Research 962-965 (June 2014): 1782–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.962-965.1782.

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The objective of this research is to explore Thailand energy scenarios to 2035. Based on decisions focus, energy security, social acceptance, and minimal environmental impact. From the studies by scenario planning method we found two main drivers affect to the scenario decision focus, consists of vulnerability of crude oil prices and government policy sanctioned by political will. The result of this research is Thailand energy scenarios to 2035, consists of 1) Healthy scenario, 2) Reference scenario, and 3) Coma scenario.

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Hendrawan, Riko, and Ariful Ulya. "Do We Believe In Value? : Valuing Toll Road Sub Sector Companies Listed On Idx." Jurnal Manajemen Indonesia 23, no. 1 (April 28, 2023): 83. http://dx.doi.org/10.25124/jmi.v23i1.4011.

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The purpose of this to examining the intrinsic value of the shares of toll road operator companies in IDX in 2021. This research uses data from 2016 to 2020 to calculate the historical performance of each company and is projected from 2021 to 2025. We used pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic scenario. The method used is DCF method with FCFF approach and the calculation of the Relative Valuation method using PER and PBV approaches. The results based on the DCF-FCFF method showed that JSMR was overvalued for the pessimistic scenario and undervalued for the moderate and optimistic scenarios, while the calculation using the RV-PER method on JSMR showed that it was undervalued in the pessimistic and moderate scenarios and overvalued in the optimistic scenario. Also, based on the RV-PBV method, it showed undervalued in all scenarios. The DCF-FCFF results of CMNP issuers were undervalued in all scenarios, the RV-PER method was overvalued in all scenarios, and the RV-PBV were undervalued in all scenarios. Finally, META issuers were undervalued in the pessimistic scenario, and overvalued in the moderate and optimistic scenarios. RV-PER CMNP had undervalued results in the pessimistic scenario and overvalued in the moderate and optimistic scenarios, and the RV-PBV had undervalued results in the pessimistic scenario and overvalued in the moderate and optimistic scenarios. Keywords : DCF, FCFF, PBV, PER

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Lebed, I. V. "The Effect of the Turbulence Coefficient on the Formation of a Turbulent Process: 2. Existing Scenarios for the Occurrence and Development of Turbulence." Химическая физика 42, no. 12 (December 1, 2023): 86–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.31857/s0207401x23120063.

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Some characteristic features of three scenarios for the occurrence and development of turbulenceare presented: the Landau-Hopf scenario, the scenario of transition to turbulence on a strange attractor, andthe scenario followed by the solutions of the multimoment hydrodynamics equations. The analysis of the presentedcharacteristic features allows us to conclude that these scenarios can be used to interpret turbulence.It is shown that only one of the scenarios satisfactorily interprets the experimental data: the scenario followedby the solutions of the multimoment hydrodynamics equations supplemented with stochastic components.The Landau-Hopf scenario leads to a system that has lost stability in the wrong direction. The scenario of thetransition to turbulence on a strange attractor correctly reproduces only the initial stage of the evolution ofthe liquid layer in the Bénard experiment, namely, heat transfer in the resting layer and convective shafts.Analysis of the behavior of solutions of the Lorentz model leaves no hope for the ability of this scenario tointerpret turbulence

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Svatošová, Veronika, and Josef Smolík. "The Scenarios of Social Policy Development in the Czech Republic." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 63, no. 5 (2015): 1749–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201563051749.

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The main objective of this paper is to create scenarios of possible development of social policy in the Czech Republic and evaluate the probability of each scenario. Based on the literature review and scenario method, three scenarios are created (scenario of a positive development, scenario of a negative development, and explorative scenario), which are compared with the current state of Czech social policy and which evaluate the possible development of Czech social policy in the period up to 2050. For the implementation of scenarios, basic factors that influence the development of Czech social policy are identified. The complementary research methods are creative methods brainstorming and mind mapping, modelling, an intuitive method of estimating trends and decision-making method of scoring. The research shows that the Czech social policy system is threatened without accepting the strategic and conceptual social policy solutions. The probability of the scenario of negative development (critical scenario) of Czech social policy is more than ninety percent. This scenario is based on a deep economic crisis, the collapse of the entire system of social policy and great social unrest. The created scenarios are useful for actors of social policy which can reverse the negative development of Czech social policy.

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Batsch, Felix, Alireza Daneshkhah, Vasile Palade, and Madeline Cheah. "Scenario Optimisation and Sensitivity Analysis for Safe Automated Driving Using Gaussian Processes." Applied Sciences 11, no. 2 (January 15, 2021): 775. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app11020775.

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Assuring the safety of automated vehicles is essential for their timely introduction and acceptance by policymakers and the public. To assess their safe design and robust decision making in response to all possible scenarios, new methods that use a scenario-based testing approach are needed, as testing on public roads in normal traffic would require driving millions of kilometres. We make use of the scenario-based testing approach and propose a method to model simulated scenarios using Gaussian Process based models to predict untested scenario outcomes. This enables us to efficiently determine the performance boundary, where the safe and unsafe scenarios can be evidently distinguished from each other. We present an iterative method that optimises the parameter space of a logical scenario towards the most critical scenarios on this performance boundary. Additionally, we conduct a novel probabilistic sensitivity analysis by efficiently computing several variance-based sensitivity indices using the Gaussian Process models and evaluate the relative importance of the scenario input parameters on the scenario outcome. We critically evaluate and investigate the usefulness of the proposed Gaussian Process based approach as a very efficient surrogate model, which can model the logical scenarios effectively in the presence of uncertainty. The proposed approach is applied on an exemplary logical scenario and shows viability in finding concrete critical scenarios. The reported results, derived from the proposed approach, could pave the way to more efficient testing of automated vehicles and instruct further physical tests on the determined critical scenarios.

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Nazarko, Joanicjusz, and Anna Kononiuk. "THE CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF SCENARIO CONSTRUCTION IN THE POLISH FORESIGHT INITIATIVES." Technological and Economic Development of Economy 19, no. 3 (October 3, 2013): 510–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2013.809030.

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The aim of the article is to present the diagnosis of scenario method application in the Polish foresight initiatives. The concept of scenario method, its evolution, the state of the art of the Polish foresight studies and the critical analysis of the application of this method have been presented. From the questionnaire results the authors have identified (i) the approach used in scenario construction, (ii) the most important phases of scenario construction, (iii) the interconnection of scenario method with other methods of scenario construction, (iv) the profile of experts involved in foresight projects, (v) the profile of experts involved in scenario construction, (vi) the application of the triangulation principle in scenario construction, (vii) the application of wild cards in scenario construction and techniques to identify them, (viii) the average time of scenario construction process, (ix) the linkage of scenarios to other documents, (x) the number of scenarios elaborated upon, and (xi) the main difficulties in the process of scenario construction. To achieve article aims there have been used the following research methods: a literature review, the method of critical analysis and logical construction, survey research, the status of Polish foresight projects, interim and final report analysis. The research has been funded by the National Science Centre in Poland within a research project entitled Scenarios in future shaping and anticipation for foresight studies, project number: 4194/B/H03/2011/40.

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Primasari, Indah. "Project Investment Plan Valuation Using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (Case Study of LLP Compression Project Investment Plan at Tango Field, Mehacca Block)." European Journal of Business and Management Research 7, no. 4 (August 25, 2022): 342–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.24018/ejbmr.2022.7.4.1596.

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This article performs a valuation analysis of LLP Compression in project investment plan at Tango Field in Mehacca Block. The LLP Compression investment project plan is currently under consideration for a Final Investment Decision (FID). The analysis is conducted by using quantitative methodology approach to evaluate 2 project scenario based on its cash flow. The outcome of financial valuation could assist decision maker in the company, in determining whether the project is economically profitable, whether it should be executed, what scenario can generate maximum economic profit for the company, and also what financial factor affecting LLP Compression Project cash flow that should be managed to avoid negative financial results and to forecast project likelihood of success. For DCF analysis, with company discount rate at 10.2%, the Net Present Value (NPV) result is 1.12 Million USD for Scenario 1 and 0.91 Million USD for Scenario 2. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for both scenarios are higher than company’s discount rate. Payback Period for both scenarios are also the same in year 2026, or 2 years after production. Profitability Index (PI) for Scenario 1 is slightly higher than Scenario 1 amounting at 1.07, while PI for scenario 2 is 1.03. All of the parameters from DCF gives positive result more than expected return, with scenario 1 that provide better value than scenario 2. Monte Carlo simulation is also used to provide a likelihood of having a negative NPV. The result is that both scenarios have probability negative NPV amounting 28% for scenario 1 and 30% for scenario 2. Based on Monte Carlo Simulation result, scenario 1 has slightly lower probability of generating negative NPV than Scenario 2. Sensitivity analysis is also being used to look how large NPV project varies if the parameter inputs are changed. Four parameters tested with assumption change at ± 25% from original condition. Based on sensitivity analysis, it is observed that Gas Production, Gas Price are the most sensitive parameter for both scenarios of LLP Compression project. In summary, the LLP Compression Project investment plan is feasible to be executed for both scenarios, with scenario 1 provides higher economic profit than scenario 2, and it also generates slightly lower probability negative NPV than scenario 2. Since LLP Compression Project has probability of gaining negative NPV based on Monte Carlo Simulation Result, hence several strategies to minimize project risk exposure are required to be determined before project execution.

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Potirniche, Marius Titi. "Military Scenario Development." Vojenské rozhledy 26, no. 5 (October 16, 2017): 33–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.3849/2336-2995.26.2017.05.033-040.

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Kwon, Soon Ho, Donghwi Jung, and Joong Hoon Kim. "Development of a Multiscenario Planning Approach for Urban Drainage Systems." Applied Sciences 10, no. 5 (March 6, 2020): 1834. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10051834.

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A traditional urban drainage system (UDS) planning approach generally considers the most probable future rainfall scenario. However, this single scenario (i.e., scenario-optimal) planning approach is prone to failure under recent climatic conditions, which involve increasing levels of uncertainty. To overcome this limitation, an alternative is to consider multiple scenarios simultaneously. A two-phase multi-scenario-based UDS planning approach was developed. Scenario-optimal solutions were determined for a set of scenarios in Phase I, as the traditional planning approach, while common elements across the scenarios were identified and used to consider components-wise regret cost concept for Phase II optimization, from which a compromise solution was sought. The storm water management model was dynamically linked with the harmony search algorithm for each phase optimization model. The proposed approach was demonstrated in the planning of the grid-type drainage networks of S-city. The compromise solution was compared with the scenario-optimal solutions (Phase I) with respect to cost effectiveness and system performance under scenarios that were not considered in the planning phase.

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OHNISHI, Atsushi, and Koji KITAMOTO. "A Generation Method of Alternative Scenarios with a Normal Scenario." IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems E93-D, no. 4 (2010): 693–701. http://dx.doi.org/10.1587/transinf.e93.d.693.

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OHNISHI, A. "A Generation Method of Exceptional Scenarios from a Normal Scenario." IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems E91-D, no. 4 (April 1, 2008): 881–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ietisy/e91-d.4.881.

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Chen, Yongjie, and Tieru Wu. "SATVSR: Scenario Adaptive Transformer for Cross Scenarios Video Super-Resolution." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2456, no. 1 (March 1, 2023): 012028. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2456/1/012028.

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Abstract Video Super-Resolution (VSR) aims to recover sequences of high-resolution (HR) frames from low-resolution (LR) frames. Previous methods mainly utilize temporally adjacent frames to assist the reconstruction of target frames. However, in the real world, there is a lot of irrelevant information in adjacent frames of videos with fast scene switching, these VSR methods cannot adaptively distinguish and select useful information. In contrast, with a transformer structure suitable for temporal tasks, we devise a novel adaptive scenario video super-resolution method. Specifically, we use optical flow to label the patches in each video frame, only calculate the attention of patches with the same label. Then select the most relevant label among them to supplement the spatial-temporal information of the target frame. This design can directly make the supplementary information come from the same scene as much as possible. We further propose a cross-scale feature aggregation module to better handle the scale variation problem. Compared with other video super-resolution methods, our method not only achieves significant performance gains on single-scene videos but also has better robustness on cross-scene datasets.

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Jafari, Hamid, Ahmad Jonidi Jafari, Mahmoud Nekoei-Moghadam, and Salime Goharinezhad. "The use of uncertain scenarios in disaster risk reduction: a systematic review." foresight 21, no. 3 (May 30, 2019): 409–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-11-2018-0099.

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Purpose In recent years, futures study methods, especially scenario analysis, are used to plan for disaster and emergency management. Scenario method is suitable for public level policy making. Scenarios generated alternative descriptive futures in all of the development field such as disaster studies. This paper aims to systematically review the articles that generated scenarios in disaster management to attain gaps, challenges and opportunities related to use of scenario analysis in disasters. Design/methodology/approach This is a systematic review that was conducted based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The keywords that searched included “disaster,” “emergency,” “crisis,” “disruptive event,” “futures study,” “foresight,” “scenario,” “community-based scenario planning,” “participatory scenario planning,” “scenario planning” and “scenario analysis.” The Google Scholar, ISI Web of Science, Science Direct, PubMed and Scopus databases were searched. Findings A total of 981 article gathered after initial search between electronic databases. At final step, only ten articles included in the study. The selected articles compared according to many aspects. Most of the scenarios that developed in disaster management and planning concentrated on climate change and flooding related hazards. Many of studies developed three or four scenarios that it seems the number is suitable for disaster planning. Originality/value The paper serves as an original guideline for disaster planning.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Scenario'

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