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Wise, Gianni Ian Media Arts College of Fine Arts UNSW. "Scenario House." Awarded by:University of New South Wales. Media Arts, 2006. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/26230.
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Scenario House, a gallery based installation, is comprised of a room constructed as a ???family room??? within a domestic space, a television with a looped video work and a sound componant played through a 5.1 sound system. The paper is intended to give my work context in relation to the processes leading up to its completion. This is achieved through clarification of the basis for the installation including previous socio-political discourses within my art practice. It then focuses on ways that the installation Scenario House is based on gun practice facilities such as the Valhalla Shooting Club. Further it gives an explanation of the actual production, in context with other art practices. It was found that distinctions between ???war as a game??? and the actual event are being lost within ???simulation revenge scenarios??? where the borders distinguishing gaming violence, television violence and revenge scenarios are increasingly indefinable. War can then be viewed a spectacle where the actual event is lost in a simplified simulation. Scenario House as installation allows audience immersion through sound spatialisation and physical devices. Sound is achieved by design of a 5.1 system played through a domestic home theatre system. The physical design incorporates the dual aspect of a gun shooting club and a lounge room. Further a film loop is shown on the television monitor as part of the domestic space ??? it is non-narrative and semi-documentary in style. The film loop represents the mediation of the representation of fear where there is an exclusion of ???the other??? from the social body. When considering this installation it is important to note that politics and art need not be considered as representing two separate and permanent realities. Conversely there is a need to distance politicised art production from any direct political campaign work in so far as the notion of a campaign constitutes a fixed and inflexible space for intellectual and cultural production. Finally this paper expresses the need to maintain a critical openness to media cultures that dominate political discourse. Art practices such as those of Martha Rosler, Haacke and Paul McCarthy are presented as effective strategies for this form of production.
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Uchitel, Sebastian. "Incremental elaboration of scenario-based specifications and behaviour models using implied scenarios." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2003. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.401938.
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Hout, Gary K. "Toward XML representation of NSS simulation scenario for mission scenario exchange capability." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2003. http://library.nps.navy.mil/uhtbin/hyperion-image/03sep%5FHout.pddf.
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Thesis (M.S. in Modeling, Virtual Environments and Simulation (MOVES))--Naval Postgraduate School, September 2003.Thesis advisor(s): Don Brutzman, Curtis Blais. Includes bibliographical references (p. 101-102). Also available online.
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Mueller, David S. "Authentication scenario for CyberCIEGE." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2005. http://library.nps.navy.mil/uhtbin/hyperion/05Sep%5FMueller.pdf.
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Thesis (M.S. in Computer Science)--Naval Postgraduate School, September 2005.Thesis Advisor(s): Cynthia E. Irvine, Paul C. Clark. Includes bibliographical references (p. 93-96). Also available online.
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Knight, G. S. "Scenario-based access control." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape3/PQDD_0021/NQ54421.pdf.
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Tideman, Martijn. "Scenario based product design." Enschede : University of Twente [Host], 2008. http://doc.utwente.nl/58863.
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McCahon, Oliver Colin. "Noninferior set scenario analysis." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Business Administration, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/4369.
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Although many Mathematical Programming techniques have been developed for application to decision making under uncertainty, these techniques are based on three implicit assumptions. The first is that probabilities can be determined for the outcomes of the uncertain parameters, the second is that the decision maker is risk neutral, and the third is that all of the decision maker's concerns can be included in the formulation. While there are many decision making situations for which these assumptions are appropriate, there are many other situations for which they are not. In particular, these assumptions are seldom supportable for strategic decision making problems. Strategic decision making must consider possible future events that have seldom, if ever, occurred before, and for which probabilities cannot be determined. Because the situation will occur only once, and the decision will have a large impact, the decision ma.ker is unlikely to be risk neutral. Finally, the decision makers will often have concerns that cannot be represented in a mathematical programming formulation.
In this work we present an approach to decision making under uncertainty that relaxes the three assumptions listed above. We assume that the uncertain future can be described as a small set of scenarios. These scenarios can be considered to have separate, competing objectives, because decisions that prepare well for one scenario generally prepare poorly for the others. The problem is formulated as a multi-objective optimisation problem, and a set of non-dominated decisions is found. The decision maker can choose a decision from this set according to his/her attitudes to risk, and to account for other requirements that cannot be represented in a mathematical programming formulation. This approach is developed for problems with continuous variables, and then extended to problems that include binary variables.
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Melnick, E. S., and D. O. Marchenko. "The alternative policy scenario." Thesis, Вид-во СумДУ, 2011. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/22054.
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Berigan, Michael C. "Task structure and scenario design." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 1996. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA312934.
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Thesis (M.S. in Systems Technology [Command, Control, Communications, Computers, and Intelligence (C4I) Systems]) Naval Postgraduate School, June 1996.Thesis advisor(s): W.G. Kemple, Kishore Sengupta. "June 1996." BIbliography: p. 93. Also available online.
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Ertugrul, Elcin. "An Inquiry Into Architectural Scenario." Master's thesis, METU, 2005. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12606648/index.pdf.
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This study is an inquiry into the phenomenon of &lsquoarchitectural scenario&rsquo
generally understood as architect&rsquo
s temporal projections about his/her real product: the edifice. The means of architectural representation are utilized to display the architect&rsquo
s projections in advance of the realization of an edifice. They can also be considered as tangible products to reveal the &lsquo
architectural scenario&rsquo
. The aim of this study is to examine verbal/written and visual modes of &lsquo
architectural scenario&rsquo
through a historical survey and to uncover its various definitions and interpretations. While elaborating on this issue cinema/filmmaking is used as a paradigm for comprehending the architectural scenario as the process of image construction. &lsquo
Architectural scenario&rsquo
is explored in the frame of architectural representation. This thesis is a reconsideration of the architectural production in terms of conceptualizing &lsquo
AS&rsquo
, which is inherently valid in the form making processes.
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Srivastav, Pushkar K. "Clean Energy Scenario for Nepal." Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekologi, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-32893.
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The focus of this study was to develop energy futures under different growthconditions in Nepal for 2050 and describes how the sustainable energy supply can bemade by using backcasting method to develop scenarios.The major distinguishingcharacteristic of backcasting analysis is a concern, not with what futures are likely tohappen, but with how desirable futures can be attained. It involves workingbackwards from a particular desirable future end-point to the present in order todetermine the physical feasibility of the futures and what policy measures would berequired to reach that point. Typically backcasting is applied on long-term complexissues, involving many aspects of society as well as technological innovations andchange. Furthermore in the long run, though, discontinuities are likely to occur andshould even be deliberately sought in some cases. Under these circumstances abackcasting approach is an interesting alternative. With these reasons, this studyuses the same method to develop scenarios. The future pictures developed bybackcasting approach are self-fulfilling, this study concludes two of three futurepictures are satisfying the aim of the study. There are three scenarios namely, the high growth (HG), the medium growth (MG)and the business as usual (BAU) scenario developed in this study for year 2050.These scenarios are developed on the basis of future population and economicgrowth. The HG scenario considers highest economic growth rate of 9% while MGand BAU scenario considers the growth rate of 6% and 4% respectively. The BAUand MG scenario with 809, 1460 million GJ of energy demand respectively, meet theaim of the study (i.e. to meet the future energy demand by renewable energyresources in sustainable manner) while the HG scenario with energy demand of4300 million GJ unable to meet its energy demand by sustainable energy resources available in the country. The energy crisis in Nepal is a major challenge for the current and future growth ofthe country. The aim of the study is to describe how to establish the sustainableenergy system under different growth scenarios, Nepal may have by 2050.The urgentneeds in Nepal’s energy sector are ; to reduce the country’s energy dependency, touse the resources efficiently and in a sustainable way and to provide the modern energy system on equitable basis. These needs can only be fulfilled with thesustainable use of renewable energy resources, which is sufficient in the country.The scenarios developed in the study are describing how these resources fulfillingthe future energy demand and how the demand can be reduced with the applicationof appropriate technology. The gap of energy use significantly varies across the different strata of population;the study eliminates this gap by allocating energy on equitable basis. Nepal has oneof the lowest per-capita energy consumptions in the world; to know the level of per-capita energy consumption, this study estimates the same for each scenariosdeveloped in this study. Several measures and technologies and their potential are presented in the study (todecrease the energy use or shifting into renewable energy fuels) and these measuresare a reality today or will be in the near future. For example the use of efficientcooking stove saves the fuelwood, passive building design reduces the heating andlighting requirements, and these technologies are already in practice. Thesemeasures have to be adopted in order to meet the demand by sustainable energysupply. Further these measures are fulfilling the objective of providing the cleanenergy to all. In all scenario the energy demand have been projected, afterward final(reduced) energy demand calculated by considering measures and technologies forreduction in energy use. This study primarily considers the measures andtechnologies to reduce the energy demand in residential sector, which is the highestenergy consuming sector. Based on the final demand the sustainable energy supplyhas been proposed for all scenarios. The scenarios are presented with three possiblealternatives for economic and population growth. The energy demand and supplysituation in each scenario tells whether the sustainable energy supply is possible ornot. Rather than comparison, these scenarios present the energy supply and demandsituation under the conditions they developed. The three scenarios developed in this study are not exhausting the possible solutionsfor sustainable energy supply in Nepal. The technologies and measures and thefutures are not evaluated from the cost perspective. This means the study does notestimates, how much investment is required to realise these pictures hence it doesn’tanswer whether they are feasible from cost perspective or even desirable. The study also leaves out other perspectives like emissions reductions, earning through cleandevelopment mechanism (CDM) etc. The purpose to present different energy-futures of Nepal is to encourage andstimulate stakeholders, policymakers and the citizens to take an active interest and tostart making the changes needed that leads to sustainable energy society. The energy-futures show that together with the economic and population growth, theenergy use in future will increase as well. This is the reason for highest energydemand in the scenario which considers highest economic growth and this demandcannot be fulfilled by the renewable energy sources unless the technologicalbreakthrough in future. So high growth scenario does not satisfy the aim of the study;however rest of the two scenarios are well in line with the aim and objectives of the study. The path to the presented energy-futures; the final step in the backcasting approachhas been left out in this study. The reason is due to, that requires further analysis ofthe energy-futures from several other perspectives as well as analysis over decisionmaking and planning processes and involvement of different stakeholders. Howeverthe presented energy-futures may in some cases indicate what type of measures anddecisions that needs to be taken and what kind of investments are needed. The aim of the study is not to present the most probable energy future but the energyfutures that satisfy the objective of establishing the sustainable energy system inNepal. The renewable energy resources and the related technologies are mainlyconsidered to fulfill the future energy demand, which is the aim of the study. Finally,this study involves high degree of uncertainty due to fact that future is unknown and the uncertainty in collected data, calculations and assumptions made.Division Industrial Ecologywww.kth.se/itm/indecowww.ima.kth.se
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Thomson, Nicolas Maxwell, and n/a. "Scenario planning in Australian government." University of Canberra. Busisness & Government, 2006. http://erl.canberra.edu.au./public/adt-AUC20061129.091600.
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Is scenario planning a process that can be used by agencies of the Australian Public Service to generate and develop information that is relevant to the future, and thereby make possible improved strategic planning? This is the core question of this dissertation. The first part of the thesis is devoted to the case for investigating the benefits of scenario planning. Literature defining and describing the benefits of scenario planning for both private and public sector organisations is examined, and factors that appear to be critical to effective implementation of the process are discussed.
Against this theoretical background the empirical evidence of seven cases of the application of scenario planning in six agencies of the Australian Public Service is considered. Several conclusions are drawn on the basis of the data obtained from the seven cases studied. Scenario planning is more likely to make possible improved strategic planning of public sector agencies such as those that comprise the Australian Public Service (irrespective of their function or size) if it has the active involvement of senior management during the developmental phase of the process, and their ongoing support for any follow-up activity. In addition, a well resourced and in-depth research phase is integral to the success of the process. Even if these elements are not present to a high degree, a well managed scenario planning exercise will improve to some degree the ability of an agency�s senior executive to think more openly and proactively about its future business context. In addition, well resourced and properly supported scenario planning can also help a public sector agency to improve the quality of its information gathering, test the viability of its strategy options and develop appropriate contingency plans.
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Anterni, Peter L. "Acid rain : scenario for solution." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/14502.
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Lopes, Sara Bárbara Dutra. "Real World Economic Scenario Generator." Doctoral thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/21442.
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Doutoramento em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e GestãoNeste trabalho apresentamos uma metodologia para simular a evolução das taxas de juros sob medida de probabilidade real. Mais precisamente, usando o modelo de mercado Shifted Lognormal LIBOR multidimensional e uma especificação do vetor do preço de mercado do risco, explicamos como realizar simulações das taxas de juro futuras, usando o método de Euler-Maruyama com preditor-corretor. A metodologia proposta permite acomodar a presença de taxas de juro negativas, tal como é observado atualmente em vários mercados. Após definir a estrutura livre de default, generalizamos os resultados para incorporar a existência de risco de crédito nos mercados financeiros e desenvolvemos um modelo LIBOR para obrigações com risco de crédito classificadas por ratings. Neste trabalho modelamos diretamente os spreads entre as classificações de ratings de acordo com uma dinâmica estocástica que garante a monotonicidade dos preços dos títulos relativamente às classificações por ratings.
In this work, we present a methodology to simulate the evolution of interest rates under real world probability measure. More precisely, using the multidimensional Shifted Lognormal LIBOR market model and a specification of the market price of risk vector process, we explain how to perform simulations of the real world forward rates in the future, using the Euler-Maruyama scheme with a predictor-corrector strategy. The proposed methodology allows for the presence of negative interest rates as currently observed in many markets. After setting the default-free framework we generalize the results to incorporate the existence of credit risk to our model and develop a LIBOR model for defaultable bonds with credit ratings. We model directly the inter-rating spreads according to a stochastic dynamic that guarantees the monotonicity of bond prices with respect to the credit ratings.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Гончаренко, Т. П. "Сценарне планування як сучасний інструмент стратегічного управління банком." Thesis, Українська академія банківської справи Національного банку України, 2011. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/63141.
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В роботі авторами досліджено економічну сутність поняття «сценарне планування», здійснена дефініція поняття «сценарне планування», запропонований авторський погляд на процес сценарного планування в банку.Іn this paper the authors investigated the economic substance of the concept of "scenario planning", made definition of the concept of "scenario planning" proposed by the author's view on the process of scenario planning in the bank.
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Cazzoli, Lorenzo. "Generalize policy on supporting user scenario." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2017. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/14815/.
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In this thesis we present a way of combining previously learned robot be- havior policies of different users. The main idea is to combine a set of policies, in tabular representation, into a final sub-optimal solution for the problem all users have contributed to. We assume that the features/differences of users are unknown and need to be extracted from the different policies generated from same user. This information is used to weight the importance of a set of actions to sum up two policies.
The proposed approach has been tested on a virtual environment finding out that the combined policy works as a general policy suitable for all users, as it always selects actions that are satisfying the users at the border of the defined sensorial possibilities.
All the assumptions has been finally verified on a real environment finding out all the limitations of the proposed model.
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Yong, Yee Sook. "Scenario generation for dynamic fund management." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2007. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/252049.
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Pinto, Jorge Tiago Q. S. "The risk of a vulnerable scenario." Thesis, University of Bristol, 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.250987.
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PEREIRA, GUILHERME ARMANDO DE ALMEIDA. "COPULA MODELS FOR STREAMFLOW SCENARIO SIMULATION." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2017. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=33720@1.
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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIROCOORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR
CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO
PROGRAMA DE EXCELENCIA ACADEMICA
PROGRAMA DE DOUTORADO SANDUÍCHE NO EXTERIOR
Muitos dos modelos de simulação de cenários de vazões, necessários para o planejamento e operação de setores elétricos, são construídos sob hipóteses rígidas. Isto pode restringir sua capacidade de representar dependências não-lineares e\ou distribuições não usuais. Cópulas superam estas limitações. Elas possibilitam que o comportamento marginal das variáveis seja modelado separadamente da estrutura de dependência do vetor aleatório. Além do mais, podem representar os mais diversos tipos de associações. Isto posto, esta tese apresenta 3 artigos onde modelos de cópulas são desenvolvidos visando a simulação de cenários de vazões. No primeiro artigo, propomos um modelo periódico de cópulas vine espaciais para simulação multivariada. As principais contribuições são a extensão para o caso periódico dos modelos de cópulas vine espaciais; a drástica redução do número de parâmetros; o desenvolvimento de um modelo não linear multivariado para simulação de cenários de vazões que incorpora a dependência temporal, a dependência espacial, a variação sazonal e o elevado número de usinas (alta dimensão). No segundo artigo, realizamos algumas modificações no modelo periódico espacial proposto que resultam em uma menor complexidade sem perda de performance. No terceiro artigo, propomos uma metodologia baseada em cópulas vine para modelar a dependência temporal de séries periódicas uni variadas de vazões. Dentre as contribuições destaca-se a construção de uma versão não-linear dos modelos periódicos autorregressivos (PAR(p)) onde a dependência temporal de qualquer ordem pode ser considerada; a possibilidade da incorporação de efeitos lineares e não-lineares; um modelo que não simula cenários com valores negativos; a flexibilidade para se modelar as distribuições marginais mensais.
Many streamflow scenario simulation models, which are needed for the planning and operation of energy systems, are built on rigid assumptions. This may limit their ability to represent nonlinear dependencies and/or nonstandard distribution functions. Copulas overcome these drawbacks and represent a flexible tool for modeling multivariate distributions. They enable the modeling of the marginal behavior of variables separately from the dependence structure of a random vector. Moreover, they can represent any type of association. This thesis is composed of three working papers, wherein copula-based models are proposed, objectifying the simulation of streamflow scenarios. In the first working paper, a periodic spatial copula model is proposed to simulate multivariate streamflow scenarios. The main contributions include periodic extension of the spatial vine copulas; a distinct reduction in the number of parameters; and the development of a multivariate nonlinear model for streamflow scenario generation that incorporates time dependence, spatial dependence, and seasonal variation, and accounts for the dimensionality of the problem (high number of hydroelectric power plants). In the second working paper, some modifications are made to the periodic spatial model, resulting in lower complexity without the loss of performance. In the third working paper, a methodology based on the vine copula is proposed to model the temporal dependence structures in a univariate periodic streamflow time series. Among the contributions, the construction of a nonlinear version of the periodic autoregressive model (PAR(p)) is highlighted. The possibility of modeling linear and nonlinear effects and the flexibility of modeling the monthly marginal distributions are highlighted as well. This model does not simulate negative values.
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BENSLAFA, HADOUDA) (KARIMA. "Synchronisation temporelle dans un scenario multimedia." Nantes, 2000. http://www.theses.fr/2000NANT2034.
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Le travail presente a pour objectif de contribuer au domaine de la creation et de la presentation des scenarios multimedias et tout particulierement dans sa dimension temporelle, en considerant un modele etendu des reseaux de petri. Notre objectif est de repondre aux vrais besoins de l'utilisateur qu'il soit utilisateur final ou auteur. Dans un cadre multimedia, celui-ci doit pouvoir exprimer la synchronisation temporelle sans pour autant negliger les interactions de l'utilisateur. La synchronisation temporelle des donnees multimedias (audio, video, image et texte) consiste a composer temporellement des medias divers. De plus, le systeme doit lui offrir le moyen de stocker, simuler, valider et executer les scenarios. Pour atteindre cet objectif, nous mettons l'accent sur les concepts suivants : - les relations temporelles et causales entre les donnees multimedias, - les relations interactives entre l'utilisateur et le scenario, - la modelisation de l'indeterminisme temporel dans les scenarios, - la modelisation a objets des scenarios multimedias permettant leurs stockage dans une base de donnees a objets, et, - la specification formelle des scenarios basee sur les reseaux de petri p-temporises, permettant ainsi la simulation, la verification et l'execution des scenarios. Les relations temporelles se basent sur les relations d'allen all 83 avec un comportement qui se veut d'etre le plus proche possible de la realite des applications multimedias ou la synchronisation des objets multimedias est basee sur des relations temporelles strictes et sur des relations temporelles causales entre les evenements de debut et de fin des objets multimedias. Les relations interactives traitent les interactions de l'utilisateur. Elles prennent deux formes distinctes. La premiere forme est la navigation a travers plusieurs scenarios. La deuxieme forme est la manipulation temporelle d'un scenario (stopper, avancer, reculer, jouer). Ces operations dependent en partie des techniques de compression, decompression temps reels.
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Rydén, Calle. "Scenario Based Comparison Between Risk AssessmentSchemes." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Institutionen för datavetenskap, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-19722.
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Background. In the field of risk management, focusing on digital infrastructure, there is an uncertainty about which methods and algorithms are relevant and correct. Behind this uncertainty lies a need for testing and evaluation of different risk management analysis methods in order to determine how effective they are in relation to each other. Purpose. The purpose of this thesis is to manufacture a reproducible and universal method of comparison between risk management analysis methods. This is based on the need to compare two risk assessment analysis methods. One method relies solely on impact information and the other expands on that concept by also utilizing information about the network environment. Method. A network is modeled into a scenario. A risk assessment is conducted on the scenario by risk assessment experts which will be used as the correct solution. The tested risk management analysis methods are applied to the scenario and the results are compared with the expert risk assessment. The distance between the assessments are measured with Mean Square Error; A smaller distance between one assessment and the experts assessment indicates that it is more correct. Result. The result shows that it is possible to reproducibly compare risk management analysis methods by comparing the respective output with an established truth. The conducted comparison shows that a method that use network environment data is capable of producing a more correct assessment than one which simply uses impact data. Conclusion. A scenario based approach to compare risk management analysis methods for risk assessment has been proven effective.
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Vu, Van-Thinh. "Temporal scenario for automatic video interpretation." Nice, 2004. http://www.theses.fr/2004NICE4058.
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Holzer, Justin T. "Wideband Channel Characterization for MIMO Scenario." Diss., CLICK HERE for online access, 2004. http://contentdm.lib.byu.edu/ETD/image/etd481.pdf.
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Carlsson, Filip, and Philip Lindgren. "Deep Scenario Generation of Financial Markets." Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-273631.
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The goal of this thesis is to explore a new clustering algorithm, VAE-Clustering, and examine if it can be applied to find differences in the distribution of stock returns and augment the distribution of a current portfolio of stocks and see how it performs in different market conditions. The VAE-clustering method is as mentioned a newly introduced method and not widely tested, especially not on time series. The first step is therefore to see if and how well the clustering works. We first apply the algorithm to a dataset containing monthly time series of the power demand in Italy. The purpose in this part is to focus on how well the method works technically. When the model works well and generates proper results with the Italian Power Demand data, we move forward and apply the model on stock return data. In the latter application we are unable to find meaningful clusters and therefore unable to move forward towards the goal of the thesis. The results shows that the VAE-clustering method is applicable for time series. The power demand have clear differences from season to season and the model can successfully identify those differences. When it comes to the financial data we hoped that the model would be able to find different market regimes based on time periods. The model is though not able distinguish different time periods from each other. We therefore conclude that the VAE-clustering method is applicable on time series data, but that the structure and setting of the financial data in this thesis makes it to hard to find meaningful clusters. The major finding is that the VAE-clustering method can be applied to time series. We highly encourage further research to find if the method can be successfully used on financial data in different settings than tested in this thesis.Syftet med den här avhandlingen är att utforska en ny klustringsalgoritm, VAE-Clustering, och undersöka om den kan tillämpas för att hitta skillnader i fördelningen av aktieavkastningar och förändra distributionen av en nuvarande aktieportfölj och se hur den presterar under olika marknadsvillkor. VAE-klusteringsmetoden är som nämnts en nyinförd metod och inte testad i stort, särskilt inte på tidsserier. Det första steget är därför att se om och hur klusteringen fungerar. Vi tillämpar först algoritmen på ett datasätt som innehåller månatliga tidsserier för strömbehovet i Italien. Syftet med denna del är att fokusera på hur väl metoden fungerar tekniskt. När modellen fungerar bra och ger tillfredställande resultat, går vi vidare och tillämpar modellen på aktieavkastningsdata. I den senare applikationen kan vi inte hitta meningsfulla kluster och kan därför inte gå framåt mot målet som var att simulera olika marknader och se hur en nuvarande portfölj presterar under olika marknadsregimer. Resultaten visar att VAE-klustermetoden är väl tillämpbar på tidsserier. Behovet av el har tydliga skillnader från säsong till säsong och modellen kan framgångsrikt identifiera dessa skillnader. När det gäller finansiell data hoppades vi att modellen skulle kunna hitta olika marknadsregimer baserade på tidsperioder. Modellen kan dock inte skilja olika tidsperioder från varandra. Vi drar därför slutsatsen att VAE-klustermetoden är tillämplig på tidsseriedata, men att strukturen på den finansiella data som undersöktes i denna avhandling gör det svårt att hitta meningsfulla kluster. Den viktigaste upptäckten är att VAE-klustermetoden kan tillämpas på tidsserier. Vi uppmuntrar ytterligare forskning för att hitta om metoden framgångsrikt kan användas på finansiell data i andra former än de testade i denna avhandling
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Santarcangelo, Vito. "Visual Behavior Analysis in Retail Scenario." Doctoral thesis, Università di Catania, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10761/4135.
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The retail world is today highly competitive and has seen its logics completely revolutionized by the introduction of e-commerce that have prompted a reaction from the retail market, requiring greater attention to the consumer. We therefore moved from the world of traditional marketing (generic flyer) to that of 1to1 marketing (specific attention to the customer, profiling and personalization of the assortment offer). In this context the need arises to introduce innovative tools that can allow the physical sales spaces to be kept competitive, interacting more with the customer in order to create a more relevant commercial proposal. As a consequence, the computer vision represented one of the possible means to carry out the behavioral analysis of the consumer useful for dynamically adapting the assortment proposal.
DOOH (Digital Out Of Home) in its most widespread form of interactive point-of sale kiosks is one of the best tools to get in touch with the customer, create a synergy with him, listen to his needs in order to improve the offer, the level of service and therefore customer satisfaction. Next to DOOH, it is necessary to introduce further and time-continuous monitoring tools, which map the entire customer's shopping experience into the point of sale. For this purpose the egocentric vision is introduced through the use of cam narratives on board the trolleys, which allow a timely story of the consumer, called Visual Market Basket Analysis (evolution of Market Basket Analysis), which generates process functional alerts to the improvement of
the service offered. The story of these approaches is provided in this PhD thesis, which tells the three-year course carried out, its experiments and possible future developments.
This study has been conducted thanks to the support of Centro Studi S.r.l., a sister company of a privately owned consumer goods distribution company called Orizzonti Holding Group, located in southern Italy. The study has been implemented through an industrial application approach, in a real context (Futura Supermarkets). Consequently, the PhD thesis has considered the typical difficulties of a challenging environment, starting from the creation and acquisition of a dataset to the integration of the approach in the current business processes.
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Cancrini, Clotilde. "Scenario competitivo del settore tessile-Abbigliamento." Doctoral thesis, La Sapienza, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/11573/917412.
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Lindh, Björn. "Four stories about the future - Exploring possible futures for the technical writer in a collaborative media landscape." Thesis, Malmö högskola, Fakulteten för kultur och samhälle (KS), 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-23369.
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As a technical writer I have come to see that the collaborative media landscape has started to change the way many B2C companies work with support information. It is companies producing software based consumer products that has taken the lead in this new way of approaching the customers. More and more companies in other product segments are starting to go in the same direction. But what happens to the technical writer when more and more customers are creating their own support information? The death of the technical writer has been proclaimed for several years. It is no wonder that one asks: What is the future role of the technical writer facing the challenges with collaborative media? That is also the research question for this thesis.To investigate this I have experimented with a method called scenario planning and scenario writing. In order to get a well-grounded base of trends to create the scenarios from I’ve concluded a rigorous empirical base. The following methods where used: In-depth interviews with practitioners in the technical writer field Content analysis of a support forum Email interviews with frequent forum users.It was clear that when implementing new media structures it also involves new challenges. These challenges could potentially also lead to new roles for the technical writer. The challenges I consider to be most important were; trust, transparency, motivation and information overload. To facilitate those needs and challenges roles like community manager, content curator and content strategist are needed.With those roles in mind I created four scenarios. Each with a different take on collaborative media (and one that actually ignored this emerge). The names of the scenarios are: The outcasts The insider matter Sharing is caring The third player
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Nystedt, Gustav. "Scenario Creation for Stress Testing Using Copula Transformation." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för fysik, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-160352.
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Due to turbulence in the financial market throughout history, stress testing has become a growing part of the risk analysis performed by clearing houses. Events connected to previous crises have increased the demand for prudent risk exposure, and in this thesis we investigate regulators view on how CCPs should construct risk scenarios to meet best practice for stress testing their members’ composite portfolios. A method based on multivariate t-distributions and copula-transformations applied to historical time series data, is proposed for constructing an independent scenario generator which should be used as a compliment to other, more knowledge-based methods. The method was implemented in Matlab to test the theory in practice, and experiments were setup for pure stock portfolios as well as for derivative based portfolios. Backtests were then carried out to validate the underlying theory on historical data spanning 25 years in total. Results show that the method proposed in this thesis indeed has the potential to be a useful approach for creating stress scenarios. Its ability to render specific levels of plausibility seems to show a sufficient level of consistency with real life data, and further research is thereby justified.
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Mahmoud, Mohammed. "Scenario Development for Water Resources Decision-making." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/193925.
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With ever-increasing pressures on limited water supplies in arid regions, water managers are forced to make critical decisions about the management of water resources - sometimes under considerable uncertainty. Given the large number of stresses on existing water systems, proper management requires the consideration of all different factors that may contribute to water use and consumption. As water management becomes more focused on the issue of sustainability, processes traditionally thought of as non-water-related and irrelevant to water management are now becoming very pertinent. In particular, the consequences of changes in climate, population, land use, and various types of water usage (agricultural, environmental, domestic, and urban) are of considerable interest.With increasing uncertainty about the future, conventional methods of decision-analysis are increasingly unable to suitably quantify the future impacts of policy decisions, and they are also unable to provide a clear contrast between impacts of historical policy decisions and possible future management decisions. An analytical approach that is sensitive to qualitative effects of water-related decision-making will therefore be more useful towards improving management practices. Scenario development is one such tool that can be used to examine future implications of water management, and thereby shed light on the potential consequences of implementing different operational and institutional policies. The objective of this work is to propose a formal scenario development methodology applicable to water resources management issues. This framework is applied and evaluated on a regional scale for the U.S. southwest and on a local scale for the state of Arizona.The research presented here is comprised of several components; (i) a review of existing literature on scenarios, scenario studies, and scenario applications; (ii) a retrospective analysis of water management-related scenario applications that examines the implications of scenario-influenced strategies previously implemented in Arizona, (iii) the adoption of a formal scenario development approach for water resource issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S., utilizing an example application in the Upper San Pedro Basin in southern Arizona, and (iv) a comprehensive application of the scenario development process to the Verde River Watershed in northern Arizona through a simplified small-scale scenario case study approach.
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Georgelis, Nikos, and Mikael Nyberg. "A Scenario Based Allocation Model Using Entropy Pooling for Computing the cenarioProbabilities." Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-124026.
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We introduce a scenario based allocation model (SBAM) that uses entropy pooling for computing scenario probabilities. Compared to most other models that allow the investor to blend historical data with subjective views about the future, the SBAM does not require the investor to quantify a level of confidence in the subjective views. A quantitative test is performed on a simulated systematic fund offered by the fund company Informed Portfolio Management in Stockholm, Sweden. The simulated fund under study consists of four individual systematic trading strategies and the test is simulated on a monthly basis during the years 1986-2010. We study how the selection of views might affect the SBAM portfolios, creating three systematic views and combining them in different variations creating seven SBAM portfolios. We also compare how the size of sample data affects the results. Furthermore, the SBAM is compared to more common allocation methods, namely an equally weighted portfolio and a portfolio optimization based only on historical data. We find that the SBAM portfolios produced higher annual returns and information ratio than the equally weighted portfolio or the portfolio optimized only on historical data.
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Cheng, Xu. "Supporting automated system-level test scenario generation." Thesis, University of Ottawa (Canada), 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/27821.
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Software plays a significant role in society. It penetrates every field such as telecommunications, public administration, cooperation management, etc. In a software development life cycle (abbr., SDLC), software testing is a key phase. It accounts for a large part of software development costs. This is a consequence of testing being performed late in an improvised and impromptu way under the discretion of project managers. Continual testing as proposed by the extreme programming approach advocates that automated testing be performed in the early phases of the SDLC. Automation helps avoid disorderly and unsystematic progress of testing tasks and assignments. This thesis presents an approach for the generation of test cases from use cases---a form of requirements used in the early phases of the SDLC.
We first needed a way to combine related use cases in order to infer system-level test cases spawning over several use cases. We developed an approach to infer use case sequential relations based on a comparison of pre-conditions and post-conditions. This approach offers the benefit of obtaining use case sequential relations without solely relying on the traditional UML use case relationships (i.e., include, extend and generalization). It helps to avoid the functional decomposition of use cases.
We then propose an automated approach for die generation of test scenarios, a step toward complete and concrete test cases. Test scenarios are generated using depth-first traversal of control flow-based state machines obtained from use cases. The construction of these control flow-based state machines considers traditional UML use case relationships as well as inferred sequential relations. Depth-first traversal of control flow-based state machines is controlled by a coverage criterion inspired from traditional white-box code coverage.
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Zhang, Qinghua. "Quantum information processing with a geometric scenario." Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2007. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/HKUTO/record/B39557613.
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Wright, Alexis Duncan. "Scenario planning and strategizing : an integrated approach." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2007. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/11630/.
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This thesis presents an analysis of how one UK Regional Development Agency (RDA) used scenario planning in its construction of the region’s Regional Economic Strategy (RES). Strategists are broadly defined to include those within the RDA charged with developing and enacting a consultative strategy making process, the consultants engaged to provide advice and expertise to ensure workshops were conducted effectively, and, individuals representing stakeholder organizations that attended these workshops and responded to written consultations. Four scenarios depicting the region in the year 2020 were produced, which were subsequently presented as an evidence-base for the strategy process. A draft RES was created and issued for consultation. Previous RES development processes had been criticized for their lack of consultation, in this iteration strategists skilfully utilized a recognized strategy making practice as a means of responding to this. The scenario planning approach they adopted bore little resemblance to to the sanitised and context-free recipes commonly presented in the strategy textbooks. The research is a reflective, longitudinal study with data drawn from forty-six semi-structured interviews producing an authentic rich description that illustrates how actors enacted a strategizing process in the complex environment of the UK public sector. The analysis highlights how the strategists were influenced by sometimes conflicting desires and aspirations, and that to reconcile these and ensure deadlines were met inductive, interpretive and subjective acts were required. This analysis presents strategists as bricoleurs, with the documents and draft strategies produced being socially situated co-constructions emerging from negotiated, temporally-bound, power-laden and politically-infused interactions.
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Zhang, Qinghua, and 張清華. "Quantum information processing with a geometric scenario." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2007. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B39557613.
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Tomizawa, Hajime. "AUTOMATED SCENARIO GENERATION SYSTEM IN A SIMULATION." Master's thesis, University of Central Florida, 2006. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/2637.
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Developing training scenarios that induce a trainee to utilize specific skills is one of the facets of simulation-based training that requires significant effort. Simulation-based training systems have become more complex in recent years. Because of this added complexity, the amount of effort required to generate and maintain training scenarios has increased. This thesis describes an investigation into automating the scenario generation process. The Automated Scenario Generation System (ASGS) generates expected action flow as contexts in chronological order from several events and tasks with estimated time for the entire training mission. When the training objectives and conditions are defined, the ASGS will automatically generate a scenario, with some randomization to ensure no two equivalent scenarios are identical. This makes it possible to train different groups of trainees sequentially who may have the same level or training objectives without using a single scenario repeatedly. The thesis describes the prototype ASGS and the evaluation results are described and discussed. SVSTM Desktop is used as the development infrastructure for ASGS as prototype training system.M.S.Cp.E.
School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Engineering and Computer Science
Modeling and Simulation
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Martin, Glenn Andrew. "Automatic Scenario Generation using Procedural Modeling Techniques." Doctoral diss., University of Central Florida, 2012. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/5421.
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Training typically begins with a pre-existing scenario. The training exercise is performed and then an after action review is sometimes held. This “training pipeline” is repeated for each scenario that will be used that day. This approach is used routinely and often effectively, yet it has a number of aspects that can result in poor training. In particular, this process commonly has two associated events that are undesirable. First, scenarios are re-used over and over, which can reduce their effectiveness in training. Second, additional responsibility is placed on the individual training facilitator in that the trainer must now track performance improvements between scenarios. Taking both together can result in a multiplicative degradation in effectiveness. Within any simulation training exercise, a scenario definition is the starting point. While these are, unfortunately, re-used and over-used, they can, in fact, be generated from scratch each time. Typically, scenarios include the entire configuration for the simulators such as entities used, time of day, weather effects, entity starting locations and, where applicable, munitions effects. In addition, a background story (exercise briefing) is given to the trainees. The leader often then develops a mission plan that is shared with the trainee group. Given all of these issues, scientists began to explore more purposeful, targeted training. Rather than an ad-hoc creation of a simulation experience, there was an increased focus on the content of the experience and its effects on training. Previous work in scenario generation, interactive storytelling and computational approaches, while providing a good foundation, fall short on addressing the need for adaptive, automatic scenario generation. This dissertation addresses this need by building up a conceptual model to represent scenarios, mapping that conceptual model to a computational model, and then applying a newer procedural modeling technique, known as Functional L-systems, to create scenarios given a training objective, scenario complexity level desired, and sets of baseline and vignette scenario facets. A software package, known as PYTHAGORAS, was built and is presented that incorporates all these contributions into an actual tool for creating scenarios (both manual and automatic approaches are included). This package is then evaluated by subject matter experts in a scenario-based “Turing Test” of sorts where both system-generated scenarios and human-generated scenarios are evaluated by independent reviewers. The results are presented from various angles. Finally, a review of how such a tool can affect the training pipeline is included. In addition, a number of areas into which scenario generation can be expanded are reviewed. These focus on additional elements of both the training environment (e.g., buildings, interiors, etc.) and the training process (e.g., scenario write-ups, etc.).ID: 031001551; System requirements: World Wide Web browser and PDF reader.; Mode of access: World Wide Web.; Adviser: Charles E. Hughes.; Title from PDF title page (viewed August 23, 2013).; Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Central Florida, 2012.; Includes bibliographical references (p. 112-117).
Ph.D.
Doctorate
Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
Engineering and Computer Science
Modeling and Simulation
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PEREIRA, GUILHERME ARMANDO DE ALMEIDA. "LONG MEMORY MODELS TO GENERATING STREAMFLOW SCENARIO." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2011. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=18252@1.
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COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOREste trabalho tem como objetivo o estudo das séries de energia natural afluente (ENAs) por meio de modelos de memória longa, no intuito de gerar cenários hidrológicos sintéticos. Séries temporais com memória longa são definidas como séries que apresentam persistente dependência entre observações afastadas por um longo período de tempo. Inicialmente procedeu-se uma análise exploratória através da qual foi possível encontrar características de série temporais com longa dependência. Os modelos empregados nesta dissertação foram os SARFIMA (p,d.q)x(P,D.Q)s em que os parâmetros dˆ e Dˆ assumem valores fracionários, para que seja possível a incorporação de efeitos de longa dependência e/ou cíclicos. Também foi utilizada a técnica de computação intensiva bootstrap em diversas etapas, dentre elas a construção de um teste não paramétrico para significância dos parâmetros fracionários, assim como bootstrap nos resíduos do modelo para a geração de séries hidrológicas sintéticas. Para averiguar a adequabilidade dos cenários gerados, foram realizados testes estatísticos de igualdade de médias, igualdade de variâncias, testes de aderência e análise de sequências. Por meio destes, pode-se concluir que os modelos empregados nesta dissertação conseguiram reproduzir de maneira satisfatória o histórico disponível de ENAs.
The aim of this thesis is to study the series of natural energy surging (NES) through long memory models, whose interest is to fit models capable of generating synthetic hydrological series. Time Series with long memory are defined as a series which have persistent dependence between observations separated by a long period of time. Firstly, we proceed to the exploration analysis where we found particulars of long memory time series. The models employed is this work were SARFIMA (p, d, q)x(P, D,Q)s where parameters d and D assume fractional values so as to incorporate long memory and/or cycles effects. It was also used a intensive computational technique called bootstrap in various stages, among them the construction of a non-parametric test for the significant of fractional parameters and the bootstrap in the residual models for generating synthetic hydrological series. In order verify the accuracy of the scenarios generated, statistical tests were performed for equal means, equal variance, adherence test and sequence analysis. Through these, we can conclude that the models used in this thesis could satisfactorily reproduce the history of natural energy surging available.
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D'Acierno, Charlotte, Clarence Lee, and Jaehun Woo. "Ferrous futures : scenario planning for global steel." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2021. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/132764.
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Thesis: M. Arch., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Architecture, February, 2021Cataloged from the official pdf of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 186-189).
2 trillion kilograms of steel are produced around the world on an annual basis, enough to construct 17,000 Birds Nest Stadiums, 31,000 Empire State Buildings, or 480,000 Guggenheim Bilbao skeletons. If all of this steel were to fill Central Park, this single ingot would be nearly 10 meters tall. If this steel were to wrap around the earth, it would circle the equator more than 3 times. As populations grow and urban centers densify, so too will our material dependence. This thesis combines methods from scientific research and scenario planning to develop a series of speculative futures as a response to this ever-changing and challenging environment. These scenarios provide plausible futures that operate within the confines of the current capitalist system; they highlight the absurdity of our current practice without becoming absurdly unrelatable. The goal of scenario design is not to produce an alternative material but to question the consequences of our current practice, while acknowledging that we as designers operate within a larger geopolitical context. While there are many disciplines involved in the global steel industry, architecture is still culpable. At 56%, the built environment is the single largest consumer of steel. In imagining these scenarios, we reconstruct our material culture and the effects that these speculations might have in the complex networks in which this material is embedded. "They allow us to prepare for the future...by providing a context for speaking about the unspeakable." While this thesis questions the pervasiveness of steel in the built environment, it is our hope that this reciprocal research-design methodology could be expanded or applied to other issues of global complexity.
by Charlotte D'Acierno, Clarence Lee and Jaehun Woo.
M. Arch.
M.Arch. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Architecture
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Fairbrother, Jamie. "Problem-driven scenario generation for stochastic programs." Thesis, Lancaster University, 2016. http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/82869/.
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Stochastic programming concerns mathematical programming in the presence of uncertainty. In a stochastic program uncertain parameters are modeled as random vectors and one aims to minimize the expectation, or some risk measure, of a loss function. However, stochastic programs are computationally intractable when the underlying uncertain parameters are modeled by continuous random vectors. Scenario generation is the construction of a finite discrete random vector to use within a stochastic program. Scenario generation can consist of the discretization of a parametric probabilistic model, or the direct construction of a discrete distribution. There is typically a trade-off here in the number of scenarios that are used: one must use enough to represent the uncertainty faithfully but not so many that the resultant problem is computationally intractable. Standard scenario generation methods are distribution-based, that is they do not take into account the underlying problem when constructing the discrete distribution. In this thesis we promote the idea of problem-based scenario generation. By taking into account the structure of the underlying problem one may be able to represent uncertainty in a more parsimonious way. The first two papers of this thesis focus on scenario generation for problems which use a tail-risk measure, such as the conditional value-at-risk, focusing in particular on portfolio selection problems. In the final paper we present a constraint driven approach to scenario generation for simple recourse problems, a class of stochastic programs for minimizing the expected shortfall and surplus of some resources with respect to uncertain demands.
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Pidhrushnyi, D. O. "Scenario analysis model of economic security components." Thesis, Sumy State University, 2015. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/40837.
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Tendencies of recent years have shown that economic security is the
most important part of the sustainable development of nations and the
world in general. That is why the forefront every state puts improves their
economic situation, their international resource dependencies and explores
new methods of management economic situation.
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AL, Halbouni Hadi, and Frank Hansen. "A Scenario-Based evaluation of Game Architecture." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Institutionen för programvaruteknik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-20241.
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When developers or organizations need to develop a game, simulation or a similar project, they phase the question of whether or not to use a game engine as well as the question on which one to use. Are all game engines the same or does the architecture change and how is the game design different between various game engines? The objective of this thesis is to research these questions as well as giving a concrete understanding of the impact of picking one engine over the other and how each engine influences the way games are developed and answer some more specific questions regarding architecture and usability. A project was designed with the goal of developing a game. This game was developed by two separate teams over a period of 6 weeks, using two different game engines. The development was split into separate iterations done simultaneously between the teams and questionnaires were filled in to gather data. The game engines used for projects had similarities but also things which were different. Each engine offered ways to speed up development by allowing the developer to reuse and distribute changes among objects to reduce work. The differences caused one engine’s code architecture to be more complex than the other while allowing a better code structure as well as adding more time to learn how the engine handles certain things such as collisions. In conclusion, there is an importance to properly evaluating different game engines depending on the project a developer or organization is creating, not evaluating this properly will impact development speed and project complexity. Even though each engine has their differences, there is no superior game engine as it all depends on the project being developed. The game developed for this project was only touching on certain areas related to 2D games.
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Kelapure, Rohit Dilip. "Scenario-Based Generation of Digital Library Services." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/33634.
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With the enormous amount of information being created digitally or converted to digital formats and made available through Digital Libraries (DLs), there is a strong demand for building tailored DL services to attend the preferences and needs of diverse targeted communities. However,construction and adaptation of such services takes significant effort when not assisted by methodologies, tools, and environments that support the complete life cycle of DL development,including requirements gathering, conceptual modeling, rapid prototyping, and code generation/reuse. With current systems, these activities are only partially supported, generally in an uncorrelated way that may lead to inconsistencies and incompleteness. Moreover, such existing approaches are not buttressed by comprehensive and formal foundations and theories. To address these issues we describe the development, implementation, and deployment of a new generic digital library generator yielding implementations of digital library services from models of DL â societiesâ and â scenariosâ . The distinct aspects of our solution are: 1) an approach based on a formal, theoretical framework; 2) use of state-of-the-art database and software engineering techniques such as domain-specific declarative languages, scenario-synthesis, and componentized and model-driven architectures; 3) analysis centered on scenario-based design and DL societal relationships; 4) automatic transformations and mappings from scenarios to workflow designs and from these to Java implementations; and 5) special attention paid to issues of simplicity of implementation, modularity, reusability, and extensibility. We demonstrate the feasibility of the approach through a number of examples.Master of Science
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Mandelli, Diego. "SCENARIO CLUSTERING AND DYNAMIC PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT." The Ohio State University, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1306438099.
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Vítor, Nuno Miguel Carreira. "Silent speech interface for an AAL scenario." Master's thesis, Universidade de Aveiro, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10773/18398.
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Mestrado em Engenharia Eletrónica e TelecomunicaçõesSince the 80's started to emerge studies regarding the audio-visual recognition of speech. However, in certain circumstances, the use of the audio information can not be considered due to noisy environments or other types of conditioning. Since than, studies started to emerge regarding visual speech recognition. With the launch of Kinect by Microsoft, which includes a RGB, depth sensor and microphone for a relatively low price compared to other cameras in its segment, permited new possibilities in the speech recognition eld. The launch of Kinect One in 2014 brought a new RGB-D camera with bigger resolution and a depth sensor with "Time of Flight" technology, more precise, witch allows to get better results and better accuracy in Visual Recognition Systems. This dissertation was developed with the Kinect One from Microsoft and has the objective of Visual Speech Recognition, especially commands, in Portuguese, said by the person that is standing in front of the camera, with the intention of controlling the VLC player, a relevant application VLC for an Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) scenario, a multimedia player, the most used in the world. The system developed in this dissertation is projected for an AAL scenario, for people with speech incapacity, noisy environments or only to improve and create a better home cinema experience, without the need for a remote control. The prototype follows a classic approach in pattern recognition, integrating features and classi ers. The adopted features were the position of the lips and chin. In therms of classi ers the Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO), AdaBoost and Naive Bayes algorithms were tested. The prototype developed in this dissertation achieved an accuracy of around 80 percent in a universe of 8 commands chosen to be the most intuitive as possible regarding the objective of this dissertation, to create a working prototype (VLC as chosen) using visual speech recognition.
Desde a década de 80 que começaram a surgir estudos relacionados com o reconhecimento audiovisual da fala. Contudo, chegou-se á conclusão que, em certas circunstâncias, o uso da informação áudio não poderia ser considerada devido a ambientes ruidosos ou outro tipo de condicionantes. Desde então, começaram a realizar-se estudos tendo em conta o reconhecimento visual da fala. Com o lançamento da Kinect por parte da Microsoft, que inclui camara RGB, sensor de profundidade e microfone por um custo relativamente baixo comparativamente a outras câmaras do mesmo segmento, abriu novas portas e trouxe novas possibilidades no âmbito do reconhecimento da fala. Com o lançamento da Kinect One em 2014, uma câmara com maior resolução e um sensor de profundidade com tecnologia de "tempo de voo", mais precisa, permite ainda obter melhores resultados e abrir ainda mais portas no que toca ao reconhecimento visual da fala. Esta dissertação foi desenvolvida com base na Kinect One da Microsoft e tem como objectivo o reconhecimento visual da fala, mais especificamente de comandos, em Português, ditos pela pessoa que se encontra de frente para a câmara, com o intuito de controlar o VLC, uma aplicação relevante para um cenário AAL, um player de conteúdos multimédia, o mais utilizado em todo o mundo. O sistema desenvolvido encontra-se assim projetado para uma realidade de ambiente assistido, para pessoas com dificuldades motoras ou apenas como uma ferramenta de auxílio para uma melhor experiência cinematográfica em casa sem a necessidade do uso de um controlo remoto. O protótipo segue a abordagem clássica em reconhecimento de padrões, integrando extração de features e classificação. As features adotadas no protótipo realizado foram a posição dos lábios e a posição do queixo. Em termos dos classificadores foram experimentados os algoritmos Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO), AdaBoost e Naive Bayes. O protótipo no decorrer desta dissertação demonstrou conseguir atingir taxas de reconhecimento na ordem dos 80 por cento num mundo de 8 comandos escolhidos de forma a serem o mais intuitivos possível tendo em conta o objectivo desta tese, controlar o reprodutor VLC usando reconhecimento visual da fala.
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Nicol, Paul W. "Scenario planning as an organisational change agent /." Full text available, 2005. http://adt.curtin.edu.au/theses/available/adt-WCU20060327.164011.
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Sedor, Lisa Marie. "Scenario thinking and optimism in analysts' forecasts /." Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/8740.
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Moayer, Sorousha. "Robust intelligent scenario planning for industrial systems." Thesis, Moayer, Sorousha (2009) Robust intelligent scenario planning for industrial systems. PhD thesis, Murdoch University, 2009. https://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/3493/.
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Uncertainty about the future significantly impacts on the planning capacities of organisations. Scenario planning provides such organisations with an opportunity to be aware of the consequences of their future plans. By developing plausible scenarios, scenario planning methodologies assist decision-makers to make systematic and effective decisions for the future. This research aims to review existing scenario planning methodologies and develop a new framework to overcome the shortcomings of previous methodologies. The new framework has two major phases: a „scenario generation phase‟ and an „intelligent robust optimisation phase‟. The scenario generation phase creates future scenarios by applying fuzzy logic and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) concepts. With these concepts, it is possible to deal with qualitative data and also learn from expert data. The intelligent robust optimisation phase identifies the best strategic option which is suitable for working with the most probable scenarios. This second phase includes fuzzy programming and robust optimisation methods to deal with uncertain and qualitative data which usually exists in generated scenarios. The case study for this thesis focuses on Western Australia‟s power capacity expansion needs and demonstrates the application of this new methodology in managing the uncertainties associated with future electricity demand. Scenarios which are generated based on different future population trends and industrial growth are used as the basis of determining the best strategic option for the expansion in WA‟s electricity industry. Furthermore, transition to renewable energy and technological constraints for WA‟s electricity industry are considered in the proposed framework. The result of this case study is an investment plan that satisfies WA‟s electricity demand growth and responds to technological and environmental constraints. The new intelligent robust scenario planning framework has the potential to deal with uncertainties in business environments and provides a strategic option that has the ability to work with plausible scenarios for the future.
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Imperial, Sandra. "Scenario-Based Communication Simulation Curriculum and Plan." ScholarWorks, 2018. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/5631.
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The Joint Commission reported that communication failures in United States hospitals contribute to 30% of all malpractice claims, and in 2008, The Joint Commission listed the improvement of effective communication among healthcare providers as a National Patient Safety Goal. The purpose of this practice-focused project was to develop a scenario-based communication simulation for implementation approval by a panel of experts. The approved curriculum was designed to integrate a communication-based simulation scenario into the nurse residency program of a large, urban medical center to improve new graduate nurse communication skills, increase nurse communication competency and self-efficacy, and decrease communication errors. Kolb's experiential learning theory guided the simulation-based educational project. The Delphi technique was used to achieve consensus, which was achieved with 1 Delphi round. The education curriculum was presented to a 5-member expert panel that included chief nursing officers and the staff development directors. The curriculum received panel feedback and approval for implementation in the 2019 nurse residency program. Key comments from the expert panel indicated that the curriculum was approved without major changes. A simulation communication curriculum integrated into the nurse residency program may effect positive social change by decreasing errors and improving patient outcomes.
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Nicol, Paul. "Scenario planning as an organisational change agent." Thesis, Curtin University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/2127.
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The thesis was based on a unique opportunity to compare the perceptions of participants before and after a scenario planning project conducted in a water utility. The researcher was able to explore the perceptions of the participants of scenario planning as a change agent directly, and so address a concern in some of the literature that much of the body of knowledge on scenario planning has been filtered through the viewpoints of scenario planning practitioners. Through the use of an adapted grounded theory approach, the perceptions of the participants emerged independently of a pre-conceived theoretical framework and explanations of the outcomes of the process were developed from this data. As well, the assumptions behind the practice of scenario planning were explored and from this a theory for scenario planning was developed. This was effected while constant comparison of concepts emerging from the data was in progress and provided a theoretical framework for the discussion of the empirical research. In this case scenario planning was perceived more as an instrument than as an agent of change, with a role of setting a framework for the strategic conversation in the subsequent phases of the change initiative. The outcomes of the research illustrated that uncertainties internal to the organisation had affected the implementation of change. In particular the conceptual ecologies of people in the organisation were not explored in depth, and this perpetuated a driving force for the future of the organisation that was not merely uncertain but remained unknowable. It was concluded that whether a scenario planning project achieved its objectives was matter of perception, with evaluation differing depending on the viewpoint taken.Change of mind-set was not necessarily needed for a change of strategic direction, which could be explained using a political metaphor. However, for cultural change to be effected, there was a need for operatives to identify with it. It was concluded from this case that unless change and/or the change process were adapted to resonate with the world views of the operatives, it was unlikely it would become embedded in the organisation and may be resisted. Conceptual ecologies needed to be explored for this adaptation to occur.
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Nicol, Paul. "Scenario planning as an organisational change agent." Curtin University of Technology, Graduate School of Business, 2005. http://espace.library.curtin.edu.au:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=16321.
Full textAbstract:
The thesis was based on a unique opportunity to compare the perceptions of participants before and after a scenario planning project conducted in a water utility. The researcher was able to explore the perceptions of the participants of scenario planning as a change agent directly, and so address a concern in some of the literature that much of the body of knowledge on scenario planning has been filtered through the viewpoints of scenario planning practitioners. Through the use of an adapted grounded theory approach, the perceptions of the participants emerged independently of a pre-conceived theoretical framework and explanations of the outcomes of the process were developed from this data. As well, the assumptions behind the practice of scenario planning were explored and from this a theory for scenario planning was developed. This was effected while constant comparison of concepts emerging from the data was in progress and provided a theoretical framework for the discussion of the empirical research. In this case scenario planning was perceived more as an instrument than as an agent of change, with a role of setting a framework for the strategic conversation in the subsequent phases of the change initiative. The outcomes of the research illustrated that uncertainties internal to the organisation had affected the implementation of change. In particular the conceptual ecologies of people in the organisation were not explored in depth, and this perpetuated a driving force for the future of the organisation that was not merely uncertain but remained unknowable. It was concluded that whether a scenario planning project achieved its objectives was matter of perception, with evaluation differing depending on the viewpoint taken.Change of mind-set was not necessarily needed for a change of strategic direction, which could be explained using a political metaphor. However, for cultural change to be effected, there was a need for operatives to identify with it. It was concluded from this case that unless change and/or the change process were adapted to resonate with the world views of the operatives, it was unlikely it would become embedded in the organisation and may be resisted. Conceptual ecologies needed to be explored for this adaptation to occur.