Books: 'Scenario uncertainty'

1

Georgantzas, Nicholas C. Scenario-driven planning: Learning to manage strategic uncertainty. Westport, Conn: Quorum Books, 1995.

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2

Hlaváček, Ivan. Uncertain input data problems and the worst scenario method. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2004.

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3

Lantermann, Ernst-Dieter. Ravenhorst: Gefühle, Werte und Unbestimmtheit im Umgang mit einem ökologischen Scenario. München: Quintessenz, 1992.

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4

Hammitt, James K. Subjective-probability-based scenarios for uncertain input parameters: Stratospheric ozone depletion. Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 1990.

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5

Hammitt, James K. Subjective probability based scenarios for uncertain input parameters: Stratospheric ozone depletion. Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 1990.

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6

Schwartz, Peter. The art of the long view: Scenario planning - protecting your company against an uncertain future. London: Century Business, 1992.

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7

Schwartz, Peter, and Peter Schwartz. The art of the long view: Planning for the future in an uncertain world. New York: Currency Doubleday, 1995.

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8

Schwartz, Peter. The art of the long view: Planning for the future in an uncertain world. New York: Currency Doubleday, 1995.

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9

Schwartz, Peter. The art of the long view: Planning for the future in an uncertain world. Chichester: Wiley, 1998.

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10

Campi, Marco C., and Simone Garatti. Introduction to the Scenario Approach. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 2019.

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11

Samimian-Darash, Limor. Uncertainty by Design: Preparing for the Future with Scenario Technology. Cornell University Press, 2022.

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12

Martelli, A. Models of Scenario Building and Planning: Facing Uncertainty and Complexity. Palgrave Macmillan, 2014.

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13

Martelli, A. Models of Scenario Building and Planning: Facing Uncertainty and Complexity. Palgrave Macmillan, 2014.

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14

Martelli, A. Models of Scenario Building and Planning: Facing Uncertainty and Complexity. Palgrave Macmillan, 2016.

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15

Samimian-Darash, Limor. Uncertainty by Design: Preparing for the Future with Scenario Technology. Cornell University Press, 2022.

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16

Babuska, Ivo, Ivan Hlavacek, and Jan Chleboun. Uncertain Input Data Problems and the Worst Scenario Method, Volume 46 (North-Holland Series in Applied Mathematics and Mechanics). Elsevier Science, 2004.

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17

Forlenza, Rosario. The Liminal Origins of Italian Democracy. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198817444.003.0002.

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This chapter conceptualizes the end of Fascism and the beginning of the civil war, after the armistice of September 8, 1943, as the collapse of the markers of certainty and the beginning of a liminal period of chaos and political, as well as existential, uncertainty. It takes the reader for a ride in what was a confusing and bewildering scenario that followed the removal of the Duce, the collapse of the nation, the dissolution of the structure of power, and the disintegration of national unity. A situation of pure liminality and radical uncertainty, pulling and pushing, imbued with a deep sense of disorientation and confusion pervaded all sectors of Italian society: the governmental level, the army units inside and outside the country, as well as people in the cities and in the countryside. Yet, it was precisely this situation of uncertainty that paved the way for passage to democracy.

18

Wilson, Ian, and Bill Ralston. Scenario Planning Handbook: Developing Strategies in Uncertain Times. South-Western Educational Pub, 2006.

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19

Brindley, Sue, Peter Aubusson, Sandy Schuck, and Kevin Burden. Uncertainty in Teacher Education Futures: Scenarios, Politics and STEM. Springer, 2019.

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20

Brindley, Sue, Peter Aubusson, Sandy Schuck, and Kevin Burden. Uncertainty in Teacher Education Futures: Scenarios, Politics and STEM. Springer, 2018.

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21

Uncertain Input Data Problems and the Worst Scenario Method. Elsevier, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0167-5931(04)x8001-3.

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22

Babuska, Ivo, Ivan Hlavacek, Jan Chleboun, and Jan Achenbach. Uncertain Input Data Problems and the Worst Scenario Method. Elsevier Science & Technology Books, 2004.

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23

Stapleton, Jeremy. How to Use Exploratory Scenario Planning: Navigating an Uncertain Future. Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, 2020.

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24

Stapleton, Jeremy. How to Use Exploratory Scenario Planning: Navigating an Uncertain Future. Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, 2020.

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25

Wulf, Torsten, Christian Krys, and Burkhard Schwenker. Scenario-Based Strategic Planning: Developing Strategies in an Uncertain World. Springer Gabler. in Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, 2013.

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26

Wulf, Torsten, Christian Krys, and Burkhard Schwenker. Scenario-based Strategic Planning: Developing Strategies in an Uncertain World. Springer Gabler, 2014.

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27

Sheffi, Yossi, Shardul Phadnis, and Chris Caplice. Strategic Planning for Dynamic Supply Chains: Preparing for Uncertainty Using Scenarios. Springer International Publishing AG, 2022.

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28

Phadnis, Shardul S., Yossi Sheffi, and Chris Caplice. Strategic Planning for Dynamic Supply Chains: Preparing for Uncertainty Using Scenarios. Springer International Publishing AG, 2022.

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29

Clasen, Mathias. Never Go Swimming Again. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190666507.003.0010.

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Steven Spielberg’s Jaws (1975) terrified audiences through its convincing depiction of shark attacks off the coast of the New England island Amity. A great white shark terrorizes bathers, but local politicians refuse to acknowledge the danger, fearing a drop in tourism. The protagonist, Chief Brody, faces the truth and unselfishly attempts to save his community from the danger. This chapter argues that the power of Jaws to engage and disturb audiences comes from its success in immersing viewers in a primal scenario of predation by a malevolent monster, the shark, which meets the input specifications of evolved anti-predatory mechanisms in the human mind. The monster film compounds the fear of predation with the anxiety of uncertainty and sympathetic fear for protagonists in peril. We never know when the shark will strike, but we are alerted ahead of characters through aesthetic means, such as the film’s soundtrack.

30

Goodspeed, Robert. Scenario Planning for Cities and Regions: Managing and Envisioning Uncertain Futures. Columbia University Press, 2020.

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31

Watson, Max, Caroline Lucas, Andrew Hoy, and Jo Wells. Ethical issues. Oxford University Press, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199234356.003.0001.

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Chapter 1 discusses four clinical scenarios andapplyies the principles of ethics in order to reach a balanced compromise that can help provide a path through uncertainty. The chapter also looks at consent and compliance, and euthanasia.

32

Steinmüller, Karlheinz, Hans-Liudger Dienel, and Roman Peperhove. Envisioning Uncertain Futures: Scenarios as a Tool in Security, Privacy and Mobility Research. Springer VS, 2019.

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33

Carvalho, Carlos, and Jill Rickershauser. Characterizing the uncertainty of climate change projections using hierarchical models. Edited by Anthony O'Hagan and Mike West. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198703174.013.20.

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This article focuses on the use of Bayesian hierarchical models for integration and comparison of predictions from multiple models and groups, and more specifically for characterizing the uncertainty of climate change projections. It begins with a discussion of the current state and future scenarios concerning climate change and human influences, as well as various models used in climate simulations and the goals and challenges of analysing ensembles of opportunity. It then introduces a suite of statistical models that incorporate output from an ensemble of climate models, referred to as general circulation models (GCMs), with the aim of reconciling different future projections of climate change while characterizing their uncertainty in a rigorous fashion. Posterior distributions of future temperature and/or precipitation changes at regional scales are obtained, accounting for many peculiar data characteristics. The article confirms the reasonableness of the Bayesian modelling assumptions for climate change projections' uncertainty analysis.

34

Cook, Kerry H. Climate Change Scenarios and African Climate Change. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.545.

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Accurate projections of climate change under increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas levels are needed to evaluate the environmental cost of anthropogenic emissions, and to guide mitigation efforts. These projections are nowhere more important than Africa, with its high dependence on rain-fed agriculture and, in many regions, limited resources for adaptation. Climate models provide our best method for climate prediction but there are uncertainties in projections, especially on regional space scale. In Africa, limitations of observational networks add to this uncertainty since a crucial step in improving model projections is comparisons with observations. Exceeding uncertainties associated with climate model simulation are uncertainties due to projections of future emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Humanity’s choices in emissions pathways will have profound effects on climate, especially after the mid-century.The African Sahel is a transition zone characterized by strong meridional precipitation and temperature gradients. Over West Africa, the Sahel marks the northernmost extent of the West African monsoon system. The region’s climate is known to be sensitive to sea surface temperatures, both regional and global, as well as to land surface conditions. Increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases are already causing amplified warming over the Sahara Desert and, consequently, increased rainfall in parts of the Sahel. Climate model projections indicate that much of this increased rainfall will be delivered in the form of more intense storm systems.The complicated and highly regional precipitation regimes of East Africa present a challenge for climate modeling. Within roughly 5º of latitude of the equator, rainfall is delivered in two seasons—the long rains in the spring, and the short rains in the fall. Regional climate model projections suggest that the long rains will weaken under greenhouse gas forcing, and the short rains season will extend farther into the winter months. Observations indicate that the long rains are already weakening.Changes in seasonal rainfall over parts of subtropical southern Africa are observed, with repercussions and challenges for agriculture and water availability. Some elements of these observed changes are captured in model simulations of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, especially an early demise of the rainy season. The projected changes are quite regional, however, and more high-resolution study is needed. In addition, there has been very limited study of climate change in the Congo Basin and across northern Africa. Continued efforts to understand and predict climate using higher-resolution simulation must be sustained to better understand observed and projected changes in the physical processes that support African precipitation systems as well as the teleconnections that communicate remote forcings into the continent.

35

Rouse, William B. Computing Possible Futures. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198846420.001.0001.

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This book discusses the use of models and interactive visualizations to explore designs of systems and policies in determining whether such designs would be effective. Executives and senior managers are very interested in what “data analytics” can do for them and, quite recently, what the prospects are for artificial intelligence and machine learning. They want to understand and then invest wisely. They are reasonably skeptical, having experienced overselling and under-delivery. They ask about reasonable and realistic expectations. Their concern is with the futurity of decisions they are currently entertaining. They cannot fully address this concern empirically. Thus, they need some way to make predictions. The problem is that one rarely can predict exactly what will happen, only what might happen. To overcome this limitation, executives can be provided predictions of possible futures and the conditions under which each scenario is likely to emerge. Models can help them to understand these possible futures. Most executives find such candor refreshing, perhaps even liberating. Their job becomes one of imagining and designing a portfolio of possible futures, assisted by interactive computational models. Understanding and managing uncertainty is central to their job. Indeed, doing this better than competitors is a hallmark of success. This book is intended to help them understand what fundamentally needs to be done, why it needs to be done, and how to do it. The hope is that readers will discuss this book and develop a “shared mental model” of computational modeling in the process, which will greatly enhance their chances of success.

36

Maliszewska, Maryla, Jakob Engel, Guillermo Arenas, and Barbara Kotschwar. Small African Economies in a More Uncertain Global Trade Environment: The Potential Impact of Post-AGOA Scenarios for Lesotho. World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8861.

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37

Howes, Andrew, Xiuli Chen, Aditya Acharya, and Richard L. Lewis. Interaction as an Emergent Property of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198799603.003.0011.

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In this chapter we explore the potential advantages of modeling the interaction between a human and a computer as a consequence of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) that models human cognition. POMDPs can be used to model human perceptual mechanisms, such as human vision, as partial (uncertain) observers of a hidden state are possible. In general, POMDPs permit a rigorous definition of interaction as the outcome of a reward maximizing stochastic sequential decision processes. They have been shown to explain interaction between a human and an environment in a range of scenarios, including visual search, interactive search and sense-making. The chapter uses these scenarios to illustrate the explanatory power of POMDPs in HCI. It also shows that POMDPs embrace the embodied, ecological and adaptive nature of human interaction.

38

Schwartz, Peter. The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. Random House Audio, 1995.

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39

Schwartz, Peter. The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. Currency, 1996.

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40

Fry, Tony. Writing Design Fiction. Bloomsbury Publishing Plc, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.5040/9781350217331.

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Written by leading design philosopher Tony Fry, Writing Design Fiction: Relocating a City in Crisis is both an introduction to the power of “design fiction” in the design process, and a novella-length work of fiction in itself—telling the dramatic story of the relocation of the City of Harshon. Set in the near future, Harshon, a delta city, is facing environmental catastrophe due to rising sea levels—consequently, a decision is made to relocate the entire city inland. A diverse cast of voices—including an architect, a journalist, an economist, a construction worker, and residents—narrate the extraordinary challenges and complexities which follow. This work presents a real-world scenario which, in coming decades, will face many of the world’s cities. The fictional format provides a novel way of exploring the very serious inherent technical, social, political, economic and cultural challenges. The story provides a rehearsal of the design challenges which are likely to face architects, planners, and designers in an uncertain global future. “Design fiction” is a fast-growing area within design and architecture, increasingly deployed as a serious methodology by designers as a tool in scenario planning. Writing Design Fiction takes the practice to a higher level conceptually and theoretically, but also practically. The book is divided into four parts, with the fictional narrative bookended by further critical analysis. Part One shows how a critique of existing modes of design fiction can lead to more grounded and critical thinking and practice. Part Three critically reflects on the narrative, while Part Four presents the practical application of the second order design fiction approach. This book demonstrates the value of a more developed mode of design fiction to students, professional designers and architects across the breadth of design practices, as well as to other disciplines interested in the future of cities.

41

Steffen (Lead Author), Will. Australia's Biodiversity and Climate Change. CSIRO Publishing, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/9780643098190.

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Australia's unique biodiversity is under threat from a rapidly changing climate. The effects of climate change are already discernible at all levels of biodiversity – genes, species, communities and ecosystems. Many of Australia's most valued and iconic natural areas – the Great Barrier Reef, south-western Australia, the Kakadu wetlands and the Australian Alps – are among the most vulnerable. But much more is at stake than saving iconic species or ecosystems. Australia's biodiversity is fundamental to the country's national identity, economy and quality of life. In the face of uncertainty about specific climate scenarios, ecological and management principles provide a sound basis for maximising opportunities for species to adapt, communities to reorganise and ecosystems to transform while maintaining basic functions critical to human society. This innovative approach to biodiversity conservation under a changing climate leads to new challenges for management, policy development and institutional design. This book explores these challenges, building on a detailed analysis of the interactions between a changing climate and Australia's rich but threatened biodiversity. Australia's Biodiversity and Climate Change is an important reference for policy makers, researchers, educators, students, journalists, environmental and conservation NGOs, NRM managers, and private landholders with an interest in biodiversity conservation in a rapidly changing world.

42

Biel Portero, Israel, Andrea Carolina Casanova Mejía, Amanda Janneth Riascos Mora, Alba Lucy Ortega Salas, Luis Andrés Salas Zambrano, Franco Andrés Montenegro Coral, Julie Andrea Benavides Melo, et al. Challenges and alternatives towards peacebuilding. Edited by Ángela Marcela Castillo Burbano and Claudia Andrea Guerrero Martínez. Ediciones Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.16925/9789587602388.

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Rural development and peacebuilding in Colombia have been highly prioritized by higher education institutions since the signing of the Peace Agreement between the National Government and the FARC-EP. This has resulted in the need to further analyze rural strategies that contribute towards a better life for the population of territories where armed conflict is coming to an end, whilst understanding the pressing uncertainty that this process implies; on the one hand, for the urgency of generating rapid and concrete responses to social justice and equity, and on the other, because fulfilling the agreement guarantees scenarios of non-repetition of the war in the country. These were some of the reflections that motivated the research project “Rural development alternatives for peacebuilding: educational strategies to strengthen the ability of producers and young people that contribute to the coffee production chain in the municipalities of Leiva, Policarpa and Los Andes of the department of Narino, with international impact in the province of Carchi-Ecuador”. This work is presented as an investigative result that contains the analysis of theoretical and territorial Dynamic contributions regarding the construction of peace, education and the economy for rural development. The book is made up of three parts: Part 1 gathers sociological, legal and demographic works on the challenges of peacebuilding with the national and departmental context of Narino, and looks at human rights from the perspective of population health and quality of life. Part 2 presents texts on the dynamics of rural education in Colombia; national challenges and lessons learned based on case studies of specific forms of education. Part 3 presents economic analyses regarding the models that are behind the conception of rural development and the productive and institutional dynamics of the local sphere for the generation of employment and income. All three parts are relevant at both the national level and also the more specific area of the department of Narino and within this, the Cordillera region. This area, historically affected by the armed conflict, despite experiencing continuing uncertainty regarding the resurgence of violence and the increase in illegal crops, has also reignited hope with regards to finding solutions to the problems seen in the countryside; through educational, community and productive experiments. Although there are contradictory dynamics, the authors agree that the rural territory is a scene of permanent and collective construction, mediated by constant social struggles and power disputes with the State. It is therefore necessary to rethink the strategies for implementing the Peace Agreement in this region, with participatory scenarios being provided to include the rationale specific to rurality, such as: justice and reconciliation, social pedagogy, pertinence of study and student retention rates, social and solidarity economy, productive associativity, demographic conditions and health; including the physical, mental and social wellbeing of rural workers. With this work, we hope to reflect collectively with academics and human rights activists, spurring an increase in studies of rural areas and those analyses of community and innovative strategies that reinforce the road towards the construction of a lasting peace with social justice in Colombia.

43

MacLean, Allan B. Vulval pain. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780198749547.003.0009.

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Vulval pain or pain involving the vulval tissue is discussed in Chapter 9. It becomes chronic when lasting for at least three months. Vulvodynia is a subset of chronic vulval pain, once known causes (infective, inflammatory, neoplastic, neurological, traumatic, iatrogenic and hormone deficiencies) are excluded. It reportedly affects one in six women at some stage of their lives. Uncertain terminology has hampered understanding. Even the latest classification from the International Society for the Study of Vulvovaginal Disease has deficiencies but it allows the discarding of previously used unhelpful terms. Differentiating features between provoked (entry dyspareunia), and unprovoked, localised and generalised, overlap, both in diagnosis and management. Older theories on causation included infection, irritation and inflammation but laboratory-based research has not supported these. Hormonal and neural mechanisms seem more likely to cause the pain, while the interplay of biological, psychological, and social factors has recently gained credence. Publications on successful management demonstrate a powerful placebo effect. The role of specially designated vulval pain clinics, multidisciplinary approaches, and team working is emphasised. General measures in vulval care, such as wearing clothes made of natural fibre, using emollients or carrying out pelvic floor exercises besides reducing stress, can minimise the pain. Topical anaesthetic creams or systemic treatments with antidepressants or anti-epileptics have advocates. Treatment is most effective when careful selection, adequate counselling, and ongoing psychosomatic evaluation address all the interactive factors that initiate, and maintain vulval pain besides modulating patient response. Case scenarios illustrate the complexities of diagnosis and management.

44

Busuioc, Aristita, and Alexandru Dumitrescu. Empirical-Statistical Downscaling: Nonlinear Statistical Downscaling. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.770.

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This is an advance summary of a forthcoming article in the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. Please check back later for the full article.The concept of statistical downscaling or empirical-statistical downscaling became a distinct and important scientific approach in climate science in recent decades, when the climate change issue and assessment of climate change impact on various social and natural systems have become international challenges. Global climate models are the best tools for estimating future climate conditions. Even if improvements can be made in state-of-the art global climate models, in terms of spatial resolution and their performance in simulation of climate characteristics, they are still skillful only in reproducing large-scale feature of climate variability, such as global mean temperature or various circulation patterns (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation). However, these models are not able to provide reliable information on local climate characteristics (mean temperature, total precipitation), especially on extreme weather and climate events. The main reason for this failure is the influence of local geographical features on the local climate, as well as other factors related to surrounding large-scale conditions, the influence of which cannot be correctly taken into consideration by the current dynamical global models.Impact models, such as hydrological and crop models, need high resolution information on various climate parameters on the scale of a river basin or a farm, scales that are not available from the usual global climate models. Downscaling techniques produce regional climate information on finer scale, from global climate change scenarios, based on the assumption that there is a systematic link between the large-scale and local climate. Two types of downscaling approaches are known: a) dynamical downscaling is based on regional climate models nested in a global climate model; and b) statistical downscaling is based on developing statistical relationships between large-scale atmospheric variables (predictors), available from global climate models, and observed local-scale variables of interest (predictands).Various types of empirical-statistical downscaling approaches can be placed approximately in linear and nonlinear groupings. The empirical-statistical downscaling techniques focus more on details related to the nonlinear models—their validation, strengths, and weaknesses—in comparison to linear models or the mixed models combining the linear and nonlinear approaches. Stochastic models can be applied to daily and sub-daily precipitation in Romania, with a comparison to dynamical downscaling. Conditional stochastic models are generally specific for daily or sub-daily precipitation as predictand.A complex validation of the nonlinear statistical downscaling models, selection of the large-scale predictors, model ability to reproduce historical trends, extreme events, and the uncertainty related to future downscaled changes are important issues. A better estimation of the uncertainty related to downscaled climate change projections can be achieved by using ensembles of more global climate models as drivers, including their ability to simulate the input in downscaling models. Comparison between future statistical downscaled climate signals and those derived from dynamical downscaling driven by the same global model, including a complex validation of the regional climate models, gives a measure of the reliability of downscaled regional climate changes.

Books on the topic 'Scenario uncertainty'

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