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Thomson, Nicolas Maxwell, and n/a. "Scenario planning in Australian government." University of Canberra. Busisness & Government, 2006. http://erl.canberra.edu.au./public/adt-AUC20061129.091600.
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Is scenario planning a process that can be used by agencies of the Australian Public Service to generate and develop information that is relevant to the future, and thereby make possible improved strategic planning? This is the core question of this dissertation. The first part of the thesis is devoted to the case for investigating the benefits of scenario planning. Literature defining and describing the benefits of scenario planning for both private and public sector organisations is examined, and factors that appear to be critical to effective implementation of the process are discussed.
Against this theoretical background the empirical evidence of seven cases of the application of scenario planning in six agencies of the Australian Public Service is considered. Several conclusions are drawn on the basis of the data obtained from the seven cases studied. Scenario planning is more likely to make possible improved strategic planning of public sector agencies such as those that comprise the Australian Public Service (irrespective of their function or size) if it has the active involvement of senior management during the developmental phase of the process, and their ongoing support for any follow-up activity. In addition, a well resourced and in-depth research phase is integral to the success of the process. Even if these elements are not present to a high degree, a well managed scenario planning exercise will improve to some degree the ability of an agency�s senior executive to think more openly and proactively about its future business context. In addition, well resourced and properly supported scenario planning can also help a public sector agency to improve the quality of its information gathering, test the viability of its strategy options and develop appropriate contingency plans.
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Wright, Alexis Duncan. "Scenario planning and strategizing : an integrated approach." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2007. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/11630/.
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This thesis presents an analysis of how one UK Regional Development Agency (RDA) used scenario planning in its construction of the region’s Regional Economic Strategy (RES). Strategists are broadly defined to include those within the RDA charged with developing and enacting a consultative strategy making process, the consultants engaged to provide advice and expertise to ensure workshops were conducted effectively, and, individuals representing stakeholder organizations that attended these workshops and responded to written consultations. Four scenarios depicting the region in the year 2020 were produced, which were subsequently presented as an evidence-base for the strategy process. A draft RES was created and issued for consultation. Previous RES development processes had been criticized for their lack of consultation, in this iteration strategists skilfully utilized a recognized strategy making practice as a means of responding to this. The scenario planning approach they adopted bore little resemblance to to the sanitised and context-free recipes commonly presented in the strategy textbooks. The research is a reflective, longitudinal study with data drawn from forty-six semi-structured interviews producing an authentic rich description that illustrates how actors enacted a strategizing process in the complex environment of the UK public sector. The analysis highlights how the strategists were influenced by sometimes conflicting desires and aspirations, and that to reconcile these and ensure deadlines were met inductive, interpretive and subjective acts were required. This analysis presents strategists as bricoleurs, with the documents and draft strategies produced being socially situated co-constructions emerging from negotiated, temporally-bound, power-laden and politically-infused interactions.
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D'Acierno, Charlotte, Clarence Lee, and Jaehun Woo. "Ferrous futures : scenario planning for global steel." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2021. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/132764.
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Thesis: M. Arch., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Architecture, February, 2021Cataloged from the official pdf of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 186-189).
2 trillion kilograms of steel are produced around the world on an annual basis, enough to construct 17,000 Birds Nest Stadiums, 31,000 Empire State Buildings, or 480,000 Guggenheim Bilbao skeletons. If all of this steel were to fill Central Park, this single ingot would be nearly 10 meters tall. If this steel were to wrap around the earth, it would circle the equator more than 3 times. As populations grow and urban centers densify, so too will our material dependence. This thesis combines methods from scientific research and scenario planning to develop a series of speculative futures as a response to this ever-changing and challenging environment. These scenarios provide plausible futures that operate within the confines of the current capitalist system; they highlight the absurdity of our current practice without becoming absurdly unrelatable. The goal of scenario design is not to produce an alternative material but to question the consequences of our current practice, while acknowledging that we as designers operate within a larger geopolitical context. While there are many disciplines involved in the global steel industry, architecture is still culpable. At 56%, the built environment is the single largest consumer of steel. In imagining these scenarios, we reconstruct our material culture and the effects that these speculations might have in the complex networks in which this material is embedded. "They allow us to prepare for the future...by providing a context for speaking about the unspeakable." While this thesis questions the pervasiveness of steel in the built environment, it is our hope that this reciprocal research-design methodology could be expanded or applied to other issues of global complexity.
by Charlotte D'Acierno, Clarence Lee and Jaehun Woo.
M. Arch.
M.Arch. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Architecture
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Nicol, Paul W. "Scenario planning as an organisational change agent /." Full text available, 2005. http://adt.curtin.edu.au/theses/available/adt-WCU20060327.164011.
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Nicol, Paul. "Scenario planning as an organisational change agent." Thesis, Curtin University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/2127.
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The thesis was based on a unique opportunity to compare the perceptions of participants before and after a scenario planning project conducted in a water utility. The researcher was able to explore the perceptions of the participants of scenario planning as a change agent directly, and so address a concern in some of the literature that much of the body of knowledge on scenario planning has been filtered through the viewpoints of scenario planning practitioners. Through the use of an adapted grounded theory approach, the perceptions of the participants emerged independently of a pre-conceived theoretical framework and explanations of the outcomes of the process were developed from this data. As well, the assumptions behind the practice of scenario planning were explored and from this a theory for scenario planning was developed. This was effected while constant comparison of concepts emerging from the data was in progress and provided a theoretical framework for the discussion of the empirical research. In this case scenario planning was perceived more as an instrument than as an agent of change, with a role of setting a framework for the strategic conversation in the subsequent phases of the change initiative. The outcomes of the research illustrated that uncertainties internal to the organisation had affected the implementation of change. In particular the conceptual ecologies of people in the organisation were not explored in depth, and this perpetuated a driving force for the future of the organisation that was not merely uncertain but remained unknowable. It was concluded that whether a scenario planning project achieved its objectives was matter of perception, with evaluation differing depending on the viewpoint taken.Change of mind-set was not necessarily needed for a change of strategic direction, which could be explained using a political metaphor. However, for cultural change to be effected, there was a need for operatives to identify with it. It was concluded from this case that unless change and/or the change process were adapted to resonate with the world views of the operatives, it was unlikely it would become embedded in the organisation and may be resisted. Conceptual ecologies needed to be explored for this adaptation to occur.
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Nicol, Paul. "Scenario planning as an organisational change agent." Curtin University of Technology, Graduate School of Business, 2005. http://espace.library.curtin.edu.au:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=16321.
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The thesis was based on a unique opportunity to compare the perceptions of participants before and after a scenario planning project conducted in a water utility. The researcher was able to explore the perceptions of the participants of scenario planning as a change agent directly, and so address a concern in some of the literature that much of the body of knowledge on scenario planning has been filtered through the viewpoints of scenario planning practitioners. Through the use of an adapted grounded theory approach, the perceptions of the participants emerged independently of a pre-conceived theoretical framework and explanations of the outcomes of the process were developed from this data. As well, the assumptions behind the practice of scenario planning were explored and from this a theory for scenario planning was developed. This was effected while constant comparison of concepts emerging from the data was in progress and provided a theoretical framework for the discussion of the empirical research. In this case scenario planning was perceived more as an instrument than as an agent of change, with a role of setting a framework for the strategic conversation in the subsequent phases of the change initiative. The outcomes of the research illustrated that uncertainties internal to the organisation had affected the implementation of change. In particular the conceptual ecologies of people in the organisation were not explored in depth, and this perpetuated a driving force for the future of the organisation that was not merely uncertain but remained unknowable. It was concluded that whether a scenario planning project achieved its objectives was matter of perception, with evaluation differing depending on the viewpoint taken.Change of mind-set was not necessarily needed for a change of strategic direction, which could be explained using a political metaphor. However, for cultural change to be effected, there was a need for operatives to identify with it. It was concluded from this case that unless change and/or the change process were adapted to resonate with the world views of the operatives, it was unlikely it would become embedded in the organisation and may be resisted. Conceptual ecologies needed to be explored for this adaptation to occur.
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Moayer, Sorousha. "Robust intelligent scenario planning for industrial systems." Thesis, Moayer, Sorousha (2009) Robust intelligent scenario planning for industrial systems. PhD thesis, Murdoch University, 2009. https://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/3493/.
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Uncertainty about the future significantly impacts on the planning capacities of organisations. Scenario planning provides such organisations with an opportunity to be aware of the consequences of their future plans. By developing plausible scenarios, scenario planning methodologies assist decision-makers to make systematic and effective decisions for the future. This research aims to review existing scenario planning methodologies and develop a new framework to overcome the shortcomings of previous methodologies. The new framework has two major phases: a „scenario generation phase‟ and an „intelligent robust optimisation phase‟. The scenario generation phase creates future scenarios by applying fuzzy logic and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) concepts. With these concepts, it is possible to deal with qualitative data and also learn from expert data. The intelligent robust optimisation phase identifies the best strategic option which is suitable for working with the most probable scenarios. This second phase includes fuzzy programming and robust optimisation methods to deal with uncertain and qualitative data which usually exists in generated scenarios. The case study for this thesis focuses on Western Australia‟s power capacity expansion needs and demonstrates the application of this new methodology in managing the uncertainties associated with future electricity demand. Scenarios which are generated based on different future population trends and industrial growth are used as the basis of determining the best strategic option for the expansion in WA‟s electricity industry. Furthermore, transition to renewable energy and technological constraints for WA‟s electricity industry are considered in the proposed framework. The result of this case study is an investment plan that satisfies WA‟s electricity demand growth and responds to technological and environmental constraints. The new intelligent robust scenario planning framework has the potential to deal with uncertainties in business environments and provides a strategic option that has the ability to work with plausible scenarios for the future.
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McMurray, Gerald. "Macroeconomic scenario building for Strategic National Defense Planning." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2001. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA401550.
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Krishnan, Vinod. "Scenario Planning Process of Energy Companies in Sweden." Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekonomi och organisation (Avd.), 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-35586.
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Scenario Planning as a tool for planning for the future has widespread use in the industry today and enjoys an envious status as the primary tool of futures thinking. However, the development in this field has been mired with confusion on its application and purpose. Since popularized by Shell in its use to anticipate the oil crisis in the 70s, scenario thinking has grown in use to aid public policy making, corporate strategic planning and even in the natural sciences. This paper attempts to study the scenario planning process design from a corporate perspective by studying its use in energy companies in Sweden. Energy companies present an ideal industry for this study as it is embroiled with obvious uncertainties in future power and carbon prices but also with subjective uncertainties tied to the political interest in the industry and the industry being in the centre of the climate change debate. Furthermore, the extremely long term nature of investment projects in this industry further exacerbates the need for deep insights into the future. This paper studies the nature of the scenario planning process based on two past papers; that have identified the key characteristics of scenarios. Firm specific internal factors are used to explain the differences in the process designs found in empirical data. Finally a framework to design a scenario planning process is proposed. This framework takes into account these internal factors to enable companies to leverage their internal resources and make full use of scenario planning as a tool.
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Гончаренко, Т. П. "Сценарне планування як сучасний інструмент стратегічного управління банком." Thesis, Українська академія банківської справи Національного банку України, 2011. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/63141.
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В роботі авторами досліджено економічну сутність поняття «сценарне планування», здійснена дефініція поняття «сценарне планування», запропонований авторський погляд на процес сценарного планування в банку.Іn this paper the authors investigated the economic substance of the concept of "scenario planning", made definition of the concept of "scenario planning" proposed by the author's view on the process of scenario planning in the bank.
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Akgul, Edvin, and Gabriel Wadsten. "Scenario Planning : Preparing for the future during uncertain times." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Företagsekonomiska institutionen, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-446453.
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Background and past studies: The effects of uncertain times include fluctuating markets anddemands rapid and agile means to cope with said fluctuations and occurring changes. Scenarioplanning is considered a great tool for coping with uncertainties and preparing means for futureevents. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to study how businesses implement and use scenarioplanning as a tool to minimize uncertainty in a volatile environment. Research question: How is Scenario planning utilized to minimize uncertainties in a volatileenvironment in large organizations within Sweden? Method: The study implements a qualitative approach where semi-structured interviews wereconducted with members within the top management of said seven companies. Complementarydocuments shared by the respondents have been utilized. Results and Conclusions: The results indicate that the organizations mainly conduct threescenarios ranked by either impact or probability of occurrence. The main purpose of scenarioplanning is readiness for action in case of sudden deviations with less focus on prediction offuture deviations. The process of conducting scenario planning is interactive and multi-leveledwithin the organizations with mainly a bottom-up approach.
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Anderson, Paul. "The business idea: problems of readiness and abandonment as a prerequisite to scenario thinking and planning." Thesis, Curtin University, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/1442.
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Documenting organisational history and heritage, it is argued, is an increasingly critical precursor to effective corporate and scenario planning. This study proposes that organisational history and heritage can be encapsulated in any local setting through the application of van der Heijden's (1996) conceptual framework i.e. the "business" idea. The study demonstrates that documenting the organisational business idea in use is a valid and meaningful planning activity. Secondly, the possession of multiple perspectives on the business idea in use, means that current and future planning teams will collectively be better informed, more competent and ready to abandon established ways of doing business and to strategise about unknown futures.Interpretivist methodology utilising an embedded single case study method was applied to an organisation undergoing change: the Family Planning Association of Western Australia, Inc. (FPWA). A stratified sample of thirty-four members from FPWA's institutional (Board of Management), corporate, organisational (service managers and coordinators) and technical (service delivery) organisational levels were interviewed, with the intent of capturing broad perceptions from each organisational level of the derived categories of the business idea framework. The categories investigated were those of organisational purpose, customer value created, distinctive competencies, competitive advantage, organisational uniqueness, positive and negative forces, and results. The study sought evidence to support each of the derived categories, as well as looking to elaborate on the process and task of business idea investigation and articulation.Interview outcomes were transcribed, coded and analysed using NUD*IST, the intent being to craft a consolidated model of the business idea in use at FPWA. Multiple perspectives from the four nominated organisational levels were isolated by copying the core NUD*IST database four times. A copy was assigned to each organisational group wherein interviews belonging to the assigned group were retained, and the remainder deleted, thereby allowing the differences between each group to emerge. Elements of the NUD*IST index system for the core and four derived databases were then exported to Decision Explorer for graphical representation and gap analysis. Narrative analysis was applied to relate the study's findings.Key internal and external factors were identified as both driving and hindering evolution of FPWA's corporate culture. It was in these areas that key insights to the meta value of the study emerged. The key driving external force was the changing face of sexual health community issues, specifically the expansion of services beyond women's health to cover men's, gay, lesbian and special need groups-FPWA is about sex (positive external force).The question of who should pay for sexual health services is also challenged. Concerns over the withdrawal of government funding (negative external force) and a lack of perceived direction (negative internal force) by members at the organisational and technical levels, has led to behaviour aimed at corporate survival and maintenance of the status quo. Many staff at FPWA were interpreted as clinging tightly to social justice, women's rights issues, reflecting the humanitarian (positive internal force) value-based aspects that have sustained FPWA's service over its twenty-five years of service.The conceptual framework associated with the business idea proved to be essentially a system that maps the organisation's corporate and commercial rationale. The systemic insights that emerged from the study at FPWA enabled the researcher to build a four level hierarchical model of systemic appreciation with van der Heijden's framework as the foundation. Issues of corporate age and stage of growth, systemic archetype and the key question facing the scenario planning team made up the higher levels of an emergent model of scenario planning readiness. The critical thinking associated with documenting the organisational history and heritage in the form of the business idea system has therefore generated a crucial link in the corporate and scenario planning process: the articulation of the key question as a catalyst to the next stage of corporate strategy formulation.
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Boasson, Yishai 1973. "An evaluation of scenario planning for supply chain design." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/28504.
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Thesis (M. Eng. in Logistics)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2004.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 49-52).
When trying to envision what the future might look like, different methods of forecasting are often used. However, there is a growing consensus that discontinuity and abrupt change are inherent to the very nature of the future and should be incorporated into futurist studies. One such study is the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics' Future of Supply Chain 2020 (SC2020). This paper reviews the future-studies method of Scenario Planning and evaluates its applicability to the SC2020 project.
by Yishai Boasson.
M.Eng.in Logistics
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Fu, Xin. "Developing an Integrated Scenario-based Urban Resilience Planning Support System." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1505209563652198.
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Nowack, Martin. "Possibilities of scenario planning for sanitation organizations facing demographic change." Doctoral thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2013. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-98554.
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Der Abwassersektor in Deutschland sieht sich mit zunehmend turbulentem Umfeld konfrontiert. Auf Grund der langen Nutzungsdauer ihrer Infrastruktur und ihrer Kapitalintensität ist die Abwasserwirtschaft durch hohe Fixkosten und durch ihre Anfälligkeit gegenüber Pfadabhängigkeiten charakterisiert. Dies zeigt sich besonders im Zusammenhang mit den Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels in den letzten Jahren, in Folge dessen abnehmende Bevölkerungszahlen zu einem Verlust von Gebührenzahlern geführt haben. Zusätzlich wurde dieser Effekt durch einen beträchtlichen Rückgang der Wassernachfrage pro Kopf verstärkt. Die herkömmlichen Planungsansätze in der Siedlungsentwässerung basieren hauptsächlich auf Prognosen und Trendfortschreibungen und berücksichtigen somit nur unzureichend sich ändernde Rahmenbedingungen. Aus diesem Grund untersucht diese Dissertation inwiefern die geringe Anpassungsfähigkeit, die im Zusammenhang mit dem demografischen Wandel offensichtlich wurde, durch eine Stärkung der strategischen Planungskompetenzen, und speziell durch die Anwendung der Szenarioplanung, erhöht werden kann. Hierfür werden sowohl die prediktiven als auch die explorative Möglichkeiten der Szenarioplanung bewertet. Im ersten prediktiven Ansatz liegt der Fokus auf den spezifischen Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf die Abwassergebühren. Der zweite explorative Ansatz basiert auf einer Kombination der Delphi-Technik mit der Szenarioplanung, in der die bedeutendsten zukünftigen Herausforderungen identifiziert und in vier Szenarien zusammengefasst werdenThe sanitation sector in Germany is challenged by an increasingly turbulent environment. Due to the long use-life of the infrastructure and its capital intensity, the sector is characterized by low rates of return, high fixed-costs and vulnerability to path dependency. This became particularly obvious in the last years within the context of demographic change, when a decreasing population led to the loss of fee payers, and was intensified by a considerable decline in the water demand per capita, which caused increasing wastewater fees. The traditional planning instruments in the sanitation sector rely mainly on forecasts and forward projections, while disregarding key dynamics of the surrounding political-legal, economic, societal, technological and environmental framework conditions. Therefore, this dissertation assesses if the low adaptive capacity of the sanitation sector, which became obvious with demographic change, can be enhanced by strengthening the long range planning competencies by means of scenario planning. The dissertation evaluates the possibilities of scenario planning as alternative planning instrument and explores the predictive as well as the explorative possibilities in two separate research streams. The predictive research stream analyzes the specific impacts of demographic change on wastewater fees. The focus lies on a short time horizon and one specific trend. The latter explorative research stream is addressed by a Delphi-based scenario study, in which the most relevant future challenges of the sanitation sector are identified and summarized in four scenarios
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Brands, Christian. "Scenario-based strategic planning and strategic management in family firms." Doctoral thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2013. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-125931.
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This cumulative dissertation covers the concepts of scenario-based strategic planning and strategic management in family firms over five articles. The first article gives an overview of the cumulative dissertation explaining the research gap, approach and contribution of the dissertation.
The paper highlights the two research areas covered by the dissertation with two articles focusing on scenario-based strategic planning and two on strategic management in family firms.
The second article is the first of two focusing on scenario-based strategic planning. It introduces and describes a set of six tools facilitating the implementation of scenario-based strategic planning in corporate practice. The third paper adapts these tools to the financial management and
controlling context in private companies highlighting the tools’ flexibility in managing uncertain and volatile environments. The fourth article is the first of two focusing on strategic management in family firms. It analyzes organizational ambidexterity as a factor explaining family firm performance. The article shows that a high level of organizational ambidexterity in family firms leads to a higher family firm performance. The final paper concludes the dissertation examining the tendency of family firms to focus on capability exploration or resource exploitation over different generations managing the family firm.
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Mott, Lacroix Kelly, Ashley Hullinger, Mark Apel, William Brandau, and Sharon B. Megdal. "Using Scenario Planning to Prepare for Uncertainty in Rural Watersheds." College of Agriculture, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/593579.
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10 pp.Planning for an uncertain future presents many challenges. Thinking systematically and creatively about what is in store through a process called scenario planning can help illuminate options for action and improve decision-making. This guide focuses on a process for developing scenarios to help communities and watershed groups explore what might happen in the years to come, make more informed decisions today, and build a watershed management process. The systematic approach to scenario planning described here is based on the lessons learned through a yearlong scenario planning process in the Upper Gila Watershed in southeastern Arizona and Water Resource Research Center’s (WRRC) research on scenario planning.
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Heynes, Wynford Gustav. "Selection of multicriteria decision making methodologies in scenario based planning." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/14722.
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Bibliography: leaves 131-136.This dissertation investigates the application of Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) methodologies to the area of scenario based policy planning. We examine how the tools of MCDM can be used to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) that would allow management or policy planners to resolve conflicting goals and interests. Ideally, the resolution would be obtained by the various decision makers (DMs) in such a manner, that it satisfies all the relevant interest groupings at a maximum level of achievement for all concerned. This is not always possible and compromises need to be made that are fair and equitable to all the relevant interests. Stewart et al. (1993), in a report entitled: "Scenario Based Multicriteria Policy Planning for Water Management in South Africa", develop the principles of a procedure for implementing scenario based multicriteria policy planning. Their iterative procedure is illustrated in figure 2.1, chapter 2, of this paper. In this dissertation, we refine certain parts of this procedure and the two areas in particular that we have looked at are: (1) filtering a large set of policy scenarios (Background Set), that could be a continuum, to form a smaller set (Foreground Set), and (2) further reducing the smaller set to form a solution set of policy scenarios. (The generic terms "Background Set" and "Foreground Set" are defined in section 2.1 of chapter 2.) The main objectives of this study were therefore mainly twofold and are as follows: (1) to determine what MCDM methods are relevant to natural resources management (using water as a case study), and (2) to investigate how these methods need to be adopted for use in an interactive DSS. We address the first objective by surveying the literature in an attempt to identify potential MCDM approaches that are suitable to (i) reduce a large set of alternatives, analogous to the Background Set, to a more manageable smaller set, analogous to the Foreground Set of alternatives, and (ii) refine this Foreground Set in order to present the DMs with a solution set of alternatives from which University of Cape Town they will make their final selection. The literature has until now not dealt explicitly with these two issues and we had to adapt certain MCDM approaches, many of which have been developed in a linear programming context, to suit our purposes.
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KREMER, VALERIE JACOBS. "TOWARDS EXPANDING A METHODOLOGY: UTILIZING SCENARIO PLANNING IN FASHION FORECASTING." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2002. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1022782166.
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Rico, Florentino Antonio. "Emergency department capacity planning for a pandemic scenario : nurse allocation." [Tampa, Fla] : University of South Florida, 2009. http://purl.fcla.edu/usf/dc/et/SFE0003245.
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Gaskill-Clemons, Robert John. "Scenario Planning for Organizational Adaptability: The Lived Experiences of Executives." ScholarWorks, 2018. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/5078.
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Organizational adaptability is critical to organizational survival, and executive leadership's inability to adapt to extreme disruptive complex events threatens survival. Scenario planning is one means of adapting to extreme disruptive complex events. In this qualitative interpretive phenomenological study, 20 executives who had lived experience with extreme disruptive complex events and applied scenario planning to help adapt participated in phenomenological interviews to share their experiences related to the application of scenario planning as a means adaptation to extreme disruptive complex events. Participants were from a single large organization with executives distributed throughout the United States and executives from 10 state agencies located within a single state. Using the thematic analysis process, 14 themes emerged. The themes included knowing the difference between adaptation and response, not being afraid to tackle difficult questions, scenario planning is never over because the environment constantly changes, the true measures of scenario planning value are the benefits achieved via the planning exercise versus the business application, and participation should be individuals who can or could have a direct influence on adaptation and do not get bogged down in structured and/or rigid processes, methods, or tools because while useful, they are not required to be successful. The implications for positive social change include the ability for organizations to reduce economic injury and the compound effects of disruption including the social impacts of business injury, disruption, recovery, job loss, and reduced revenue on communities and local economies.
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Sainte, Catherine Maxime. "Motion planning for an AGV fleet in a logistics scenario." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-272114.
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As warehouses are becoming more autonomous the number of Autonomous Guided Vehicles (AGV) increases. Ensuring that the motion planning is safe despite the large number of agents and despite sharing the workspace with humans is the problem we tackle in this thesis. We propose a solution based on velocity obstacles that ensures the collision avoidance and a global planner that takes into account the human comfort. This solution is evaluated in simulation with dynamic unicycle type robots with and without inter-robot communication and offers improvements over Hybrid Reciprocal Velocity Obstacles (HRVO) in the case without communication.I takt med att lager blir mer autonoma ökar antalet AGV:er (Autonomous Guided Vehicles). I detta examensarbete studeras problemet att styra dessa AGV:er så att de på ett effektivt och säkert sätt undviker kollisioner med både varandra och människor, samt inte orsakar obehag genom att köra för nära människor. De studerade AGV:erna är av typen “unicycle” och kan ofta, men inte alltid, kommunicera med varandra. Ett antal möjliga lösningar identifieras, anpassas och utvärderas i olika scenarier och erbjuder en förbättring i jämförelse med "Hybrid Reciprocal Velocity Obstacles (HRVO)" i fall där kommunikation inte sker.
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PENNA, DEBORA DIAS JARDIM. "DEFINITION OF THE STREAMFLOW SCENARIO TREE TO LONG-TERM OPERATION PLANNING." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2009. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=14867@1.
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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRONo modelo atualmente utilizado para o planejamento da operação de médio prazo do Sistema Interligado Nacional, a incerteza referente às afluências é considerada explicitamente no cálculo de valores da função de custo futuro bem como ao se percorrer o espaço de estados através da utilização de cenários hidrológicos multivariados. O conjunto de todas as possíveis realizações do processo estocástico de afluências, ao longo de todo horizonte de planejamento, forma uma árvore de cenários. Esta árvore representa todo o universo probabilístico sobre o qual é efetuado o processo de otimização da operação energética. Como a árvore possui uma cardinalidade bastante elevada, torna-se impossível do ponto de vista computacional percorrer completamente a árvore. Portanto, apenas uma porção da árvore (sub-árvore) é percorrida. Atualmente a sub-árvore é definida utilizando amostragem aleatória simples. Este trabalho tem o objetivo de propor um método para a definição da sub-árvore a ser visitada durante o processo do cálculo da política ótima de operação por programação estocástica dual com o intuito de tornar mais robusto os resultados obtidos por esta política de operação em relação a variações no número de cenários das simulações forward e backward e em relação a variações da amostra de cenários hidrológicos utilizada. Duas propostas são aplicadas na definição da sub-árvore: (i) utilizar a amostragem por hipercubo latino ou amostragem descritiva no modelo de geração de cenários hidrológicos multivariados, e (ii) aplicar técnicas estatísticas multivariadas capazes de agrupar objetos similares em determinados grupos (técnicas de agregação). Estas propostas podem ser aplicadas separadamente ou em conjunto.
In the planning operation the currently used model in the long-term operation planning of the Brazilian Interconnected System, the uncertainty concerning streamflow is considered explicitly in the estimation of the expected cost-to-go function, as well as in the covering of the state space, by the use of multivariate hydrological scenarios. The set of all possible realizations of the streamflow stochastic process throughout the planning horizon forms a scenario tree. This tree represents the entire probabilistic universe on which are calculated the optimal operation strategies. As the scenario tree of the long-term operation planning problem has a high cardinality, makes it impossible to visit the complete tree due to computational effort. Therefore, only a portion of the tree (sub-tree) is covered. Currently the sub-tree is selected using the Monte-Carlo method with classical simple random sampling. The objective of this work is to propose a method for defining the sub-tree to be visited during the calculation of the optimal operating strategy for the Brazilian hydro-thermal power system by stochastic dual dynamic programming in order to obtain more robust results from this operation policy with regard to variations in the number of scenarios of forward and backward simulations, and variations in the sample hydrological scenario. There are two proposals for definition of the sub-tree: (i) change the simple random sampling to latin hypercube sampling or descriptive sampling in the multivariate streamflow scenario generation model, and (ii) apply multivariate statistical techniques to develop criteria that allow grouping similar objects in certain groups (clustering techniques). The proposals can be applied together or separately.
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Sánchez-Valero, Miguel Ángel. "Merging qualitative and quantitative criteria for freight investment using scenario planning." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/68902.
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Thesis (M. Eng. in Logistics)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division; and, (S.M. in Transportation)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2011.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 164-168).
Freight transportation is vital to the economy of the United States. The total volume of freight moving inside the nation is expected to continue growing, while the U.S. transportation system is aging and becoming more costly to maintain. The revenue streams that allow for its preservation and expansion are decreasing rapidly. Because resources are scarce and long-range consequences difficult to anticipate, great care must be placed in freight transportation investment decisions, a complex process usually involving many stakeholders with diverse interests, modal and jurisdictional silos, diverse and vocal constituents, and a set of final system users that are typically removed from the decision-making process. This thesis explores how freight investment decisions can be helped by the use of scenario planning, a collaborative approach that enhances consensus-building and helps organizations to shift from prediction to preparation for the future, converting uncertainty into a competitive advantage. First, a review of the relevant literature is conducted in order to present a comprehensive description of scenario planning and the transportation planning process. Afterwards, case studies are presented to picture the observed practices in transportation infrastructure planning at different stages of a project lifecycle, followed by a characterization of past and current uses of scenario planning in transportation investment decisions. At that point, a methodology to evaluate alternative investments, strategies or policies under different scenarios is introduced, providing a hypothetical example of use. Finally, a list of recommendations are identified and explained.
by Miguel Ángel Sánchez-Valero.
S.M.in Transportation
M.Eng.in Logistics
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Eriksson, Oskar. "Scenario dose prediction for robust automated treatment planning in radiation therapy." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-302568.
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Cancer is a group of diseases that are characterized by abnormal cell growth and is considered a leading cause of death globally. There are a number of different cancer treatment modalities, one of which is radiation therapy. In radiation therapy treatment planning, it is important to make sure that enough radiation is delivered to the tumor and that healthy organs are spared, while also making sure to account for uncertainties such as misalignment of the patient during treatment. To reduce the workload on clinics, data-driven automated treatment planning can be used to generate treatment plans for new patients based on previously delivered plans. In this thesis, we propose a novel method for robust automated treatment planning where a deep learning model is trained to deform a dose in accordance with a set of potential scenarios that account for the different uncertainties while maintaining certain statistical properties of the input dose. The predicted scenario doses are then used in a robust optimization problem with the goal of finding a treatment plan that is robust to these uncertainties. The results show that the proposed method for deforming doses yields realistic doses of high quality and that the proposed pipeline can potentially generate doses that conform better to the target than the current state of the art but at the cost of dose homogeneity.Cancer är ett samlingsnamn för sjukdomar som karaktäriseras av onormal celltillväxt och betraktas som en ledande dödsorsak globalt. Det finns olika typer av cancerbehandling, varav en är strålterapi. Inom strålterapiplanering är det viktigt att säkerställa att tillräckligt med strålning ges till tumören, att friska organ skonas, och att osäkerheter som felplacering av patienten under behandlingen räknas med. För att minska arbetsbelastningen på kliniker används data-driven automatisk strålterapiplanering för att generera behandlingsplaner till nya patienter baserat på tidigare levererade behandlingar. I denna uppsats föreslår vi en ny metod för robust automatisk strålterapiplanering där en djupinlärningsmodell tränas till att deformera en dos i enlighet med en mängd potentiella scenarion som motsvarar de olika osäkerheterna medan vissa statistiska egenskaper bibehålls från originaldosen. De predicerade scenariodoserna används sedan i ett robust optimeringsproblem där målet är att hitta en behandlingsplan som är robust mot dessa osäkerheter. Resultaten visar att den föreslagna metoden för dosdeformation ger realistiska doser av hög kvalitet, vilket i sin tur kan leda till robusta doser med högre doskonformitet än tidigare metoder men på bekostnad av doshomogenitet.
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Anderson, Paul. "The business idea: problems of readiness and abandonment as a prerequisite to scenario thinking and planning." Curtin University of Technology, Curtin Business School, 1999. http://espace.library.curtin.edu.au:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=10209.
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Documenting organisational history and heritage, it is argued, is an increasingly critical precursor to effective corporate and scenario planning. This study proposes that organisational history and heritage can be encapsulated in any local setting through the application of van der Heijden's (1996) conceptual framework i.e. the "business" idea. The study demonstrates that documenting the organisational business idea in use is a valid and meaningful planning activity. Secondly, the possession of multiple perspectives on the business idea in use, means that current and future planning teams will collectively be better informed, more competent and ready to abandon established ways of doing business and to strategise about unknown futures.Interpretivist methodology utilising an embedded single case study method was applied to an organisation undergoing change: the Family Planning Association of Western Australia, Inc. (FPWA). A stratified sample of thirty-four members from FPWA's institutional (Board of Management), corporate, organisational (service managers and coordinators) and technical (service delivery) organisational levels were interviewed, with the intent of capturing broad perceptions from each organisational level of the derived categories of the business idea framework. The categories investigated were those of organisational purpose, customer value created, distinctive competencies, competitive advantage, organisational uniqueness, positive and negative forces, and results. The study sought evidence to support each of the derived categories, as well as looking to elaborate on the process and task of business idea investigation and articulation.Interview outcomes were transcribed, coded and analysed using NUD*IST, the intent being to craft a consolidated model of the business idea in use at FPWA. Multiple perspectives from the four nominated organisational ++levels were isolated by copying the core NUD*IST database four times. A copy was assigned to each organisational group wherein interviews belonging to the assigned group were retained, and the remainder deleted, thereby allowing the differences between each group to emerge. Elements of the NUD*IST index system for the core and four derived databases were then exported to Decision Explorer for graphical representation and gap analysis. Narrative analysis was applied to relate the study's findings.Key internal and external factors were identified as both driving and hindering evolution of FPWA's corporate culture. It was in these areas that key insights to the meta value of the study emerged. The key driving external force was the changing face of sexual health community issues, specifically the expansion of services beyond women's health to cover men's, gay, lesbian and special need groups-FPWA is about sex (positive external force).The question of who should pay for sexual health services is also challenged. Concerns over the withdrawal of government funding (negative external force) and a lack of perceived direction (negative internal force) by members at the organisational and technical levels, has led to behaviour aimed at corporate survival and maintenance of the status quo. Many staff at FPWA were interpreted as clinging tightly to social justice, women's rights issues, reflecting the humanitarian (positive internal force) value-based aspects that have sustained FPWA's service over its twenty-five years of service.The conceptual framework associated with the business idea proved to be essentially a system that maps the organisation's corporate and commercial rationale. The systemic insights that emerged from the study at FPWA enabled the researcher to build a four level hierarchical model of systemic appreciation with van der Heijden's framework as the ++
foundation. Issues of corporate age and stage of growth, systemic archetype and the key question facing the scenario planning team made up the higher levels of an emergent model of scenario planning readiness. The critical thinking associated with documenting the organisational history and heritage in the form of the business idea system has therefore generated a crucial link in the corporate and scenario planning process: the articulation of the key question as a catalyst to the next stage of corporate strategy formulation.
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Star, Jonathan, Erika L. Rowland, Mary E. Black, Carolyn A. F. Enquist, Gregg Garfin, Catherine Hawkins Hoffman, Holly Hartmann, Katharine L. Jacobs, Richard H. Moss, and Anne M. Waple. "Supporting adaptation decisions through scenario planning: Enabling the effective use of multiple methods." ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/622731.
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Scenario planning is a technique used to inform decision-making under uncertainty, and is increasingly applied in the field of climate change adaptation and policy. This paper describes applications that combine previously distinct scenario methods in new and innovative ways. It draws on numerous recent independent case studies to illustrate emerging practices, such as far stronger connections between researcher-driven and participatory approaches and cycling between exploratory and normative perspectives. The paper concludes with a call for greater support for, and collaboration among, practitioners with the argument that mixed methods are most effective for decision-making in the context of climate change challenges.
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Van, de Putte Alexander. "The evolution of scenario planning : a perspective from a capital-intensive, slow clockspeed industry." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2013. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.608140.
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Karlsson, Matilda, and Karin Leander. "How to face the future? : A model for scenario planning at VLC." Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-10246.
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In this report a model for logistics activities at Volvo Logistics Corporation, VLC, in the future has been constructed. The study is part of a project called Vision 2015 & Beyond, which started in the beginning of 2006, and focuses on what changes in the business environment that VLC as a TPL provider faces in the future. Within the scope of this project threats in the business environment as well as internal issues that are considered as concerns for the future are identified. The already identified threats are complemented and investigated by the researchers and further structured into a model in this report. The model shall be used as a tool in scenario planning within VLC. As to guide the practitioners in using the model a manual which describes the construction of the model and how it is going to be used has been set up. The model is adapted to VLC's activities within the automotive industry and their directives have continuously been taken into account, resulting in a model specific for VLC.
Theories in scenario planning and modelling has been revised as to construct the model, and as a result of this four types of components has been determined as to constituting in the model. Those components are; targets, scenario agenda, variables and driving forces. The process of identifying the different components was conducted step wisely, starting with the targets. The targets of the model represent what VLC want to focus on in the future, i.e. what is considered as important performance indicators. Transportation costs, Customer satisfaction, Security & Safety, Environment and Market Share have been chosen as the targets in the model. Next the components which VLC have a concern about, and that have an impact on those targets, are identified and decomposed starting with the areas on the scenario agenda and ending with determining the driving forces.
The model is built in two dimensions, one external part that represents the business environment, i.e. what VLC can not affect, and the second, the internal part, which represents the organisation itself. Both parts are constructed out of the type of components mentioned earlier and are connected by the targets In each part of the model relations among the components exist, however it is only the most important out of VLC’s perspective that takes part in the final network in the model.
The manual explains to the practitioner the concept behind the model and how it should be used. To verify the guidelines in the manual a mini-scenario was constructed. The mini-scenario is a fictitious case, which is thought to resemble those that VLC will use the model for in the future. In the mini-scenario presented in this report a future where the Kyoto Protocol implies transports are set up. The mini-scenario has an impact on a certain number of driving forces in the business environment, and by following the manual areas of recommendations for VLC's behaviour as to face this change will be generated.
The result of the study is a kit consisting of a model and an accompanying manual for VLC to use in scenario planning. The researchers have focused on constructing a model that is easy to understand for those that work within VLC, however to be able to use it in a proper way it is necessary to be familiar with VLC’s logistic activities. It is preferable to work in teams when using the model since the model is based on qualitative reasoning. Limits in time and resources has left quantification out of the scope in this report, but the researchers believe that the model could be improved and extended in that direction if it is found desirable in the future. The model is not static, rather the framework that exist today should be complemented in the future when new concerns are discovered, old ones can be disregarded etcetera.
The model offers VLC a structured methodology as to consider and respond to changes in the business environment.
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OLIVEIRA, FERNANDO LUIZ CYRINO. "NEW APPROACH TO GENERATING STREAMFLOW SCENARIO TO LONG-TERM ENERGETIC OPERATION PLANNING." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2010. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=15500@1.
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COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIORO modelo autorregressivo periódico da família Box & Jenkins, PAR(p), é empregado na modelagem e geração das séries de vazões hidrológicas e/ou de energias naturais afluentes utilizadas no modelo de otimização do despacho hidrotérmico no Brasil. Recentemente, alguns aspectos da modelagem têm sido alvo de estudos e diversas pesquisas vêm sendo realizados. Inicialmente, este trabalho visou o estudo da fase de identificação das ordens p dos modelos, fundamental para a correta definição da estrutura de modelagem e para a geração de cenários sintéticos. Atualmente, a identificação é feita com base na avaliação da significância dos coeficientes da função de autocorrelação parcial (FACP), baseados na aproximação assintótica de Quenouille. A proposta deste estudo foi a aplicação da técnica de computação intensiva Bootstrap para estimar a real significância dos referidos coeficientes. O segundo objetivo deste trabalho foi o emprego da mesma técnica com vistas à geração de cenários. A metodologia adotada atualmente ajusta uma distribuição Lognormal com três parâmetros para a geração de ruídos aleatórios, o que parece causar uma não-linearidade indesejável ao modelo original. Neste trabalho, os próprios resíduos gerados pelo modelo PAR(p), quando aplicado às séries históricas, foram utilizados na geração dos cenários. Os resultados mostraram que o Bootstrap levou à identificação de ordens inferiores na maioria dos casos e que os cenários conservaram satisfatoriamente as propriedades estatísticas das séries originais. Finalmente, os resultados obtidos foram bastante satisfatórios, corroborando alguns pontos levantados em estudos anteriores sobre a abordagem tradicional.
The periodic autoregressive model, a particular structure of the Box & Jenkins family, denoted by PAR(p), is employed to model the series of hydrological streamflow used for estimating the operational costs of the Brazilian hydro-thermal optimal dispatch. Recently, some aspects of this approach began to be studied and several researches on this topic are being developed. This work focused on the identification phase of the order "p" of the PAR(p), essential to the correct definition of the model structure, as well as to generate synthetic scenarios to be used in the optimization procedure. Nowadays, the identification is based on evaluating the significance of the estimated partial autocorrelation coefficients function (PACF), based on the asymptotic result of Quenouille. The purpose of this study was on the application of a computer-intensive technique, called Bootstrap, to estimate the real statistical significance of such the estimated. The second goal of this study was use the Bootstrap technique in order to generate synthetic scenarios. The current methodology uses an approach for noise generation through a three parameters Lognormal distribution. Such approach seems to cause an undesirable non-linearity in the model. In this work, the PAR (p) resulted noises were used during the scenarios generation. The results showed that the Bootstrap led to the identification of lower orders models, in comparison with the traditional approach, in almost all cases. In addition, the scenarios retained the statistical characteristics of the original series. The obtained results were quite satisfactory, corroborating some points raised in previous studies about the traditional approach.
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Guertin, Jane. "Practical example of developing and implementing an optimization & scenario planning tool." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/90784.
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Thesis: M.B.A., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 2014. In conjunction with the Leaders for Global Operations Program at MIT.Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2014. In conjunction with the Leaders for Global Operations Program at MIT.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 64-65).
There is significant complexity facing the Global Footwear Planning team when sourcing production, especially for sandals. The challenges include increasing manufacturing costs coupled with a changing tariff landscape and a high degree of complexity to produce the products. This thesis provides a practical example of the use of an optimization model for determining where to produce, and how much to produce, of each product, including the ability to perform strategic what-if scenarios. The model is based on minimizing the total landed cost for each product. This includes the manufacturing, transportation, holding, and tariff costs. The initial pilot model results suggested a 4-11% decrease in spending for a given year. This model provides the starting point for additional work to improve optimization in the sourcing group. The implementation of this model reinforces the notion of how much support is needed in an organization to change processes and implement new software models. Future work should include the addition of simulation, as the data are highly variable at the decision point.
by Jane Guertin.
M.B.A.
S.M.
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Poskitt, Samuel. "Investigating the benefits of Participatory Scenario Planning for tackling social-ecological problems." Thesis, University of Reading, 2018. http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/79998/.
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Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is a method in which diverse groups of participants imagine alternative narratives of plausible future events, conditions and trajectories. Researchers and practitioners commonly regard PSP as a useful method for tackling social-ecological problems (SEPs) by incorporating the knowledges of different stakeholders in dialogue to help build a holistic understanding of them. However, within PSP practice in the field of social-ecological resilience the literature is imprecise on the benefits it may have for those whose knowledge it incorporates. Seminal critiques of participation indicate that the outcomes of participatory processes typically reflect the interests of those who initiate them. This doctoral research therefore investigated the benefits PSP may have for those whose knowledge it incorporates. My analysis focused on learning, given the emphasis in the literature on using PSP to facilitate dialogue between participants with different knowledges. I collected data from: a critical review of 23 cases of PSP described in the peer-reviewed literature, semi-structured interviews with PSP practitioners, and two case studies of PSP processes. I analysed this data to explore: 1) the expected and reported benefits of PSP; 2) how and under what conditions learning occurs; and 3) how and why learning varies. To understand learning in PSP, I developed an innovative conceptual framework, built on a seminal learning theory, the ‘Zone of Proximal Development’. This postulates that learning occurs through interactions between different participants, which enable them to push beyond their usual range of thinking. My analysis indicates that learning is the most commonly expected and reported benefit associated with PSP. I reason that PSP stimulates learning by prompting focused discussions, which expose participants to different assumptions about the future. PSP thus encourages creative, focused thinking, that can help participants to push beyond their usual range of thinking. I found that learning varies according to participants’ relative prior expertise in specific topics, social and economic backgrounds, previous experience (if any) of PSP, and the design of specific PSP processes. I reason that learning varies because of the relative extent to which different participants consider the knowledge encountered in PSP to be relevant to their interests, as well as developed through a fair and unbiased process. This perception is strongly influenced both by facilitators and the objectives of wider projects in which specific PSP processes are embedded. I conclude that, although PSP can be a useful method for learning, there is a need for more robust governance to ensure critical reflection and evaluation of the use of PSP in this context.
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Andrews, Clinton James. "Improving the analytics of open planning processes : scenario-based multiple attribute tradeoff analysis for regional electric power planning." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/13566.
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Fazakerley, Victor William. "Critical issues for the future of the Australian urban water supply industry." Thesis, Curtin University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/1246.
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This study makes a contribution to the Australian urban water supply industry because it highlights some of the critical issues the industry faces in the future. Through the scenarios it illuminates an alternative method to develop strategies for the future. Ultimately the end result of scenario planning is not a more accurate picture of the future, but better decision making for the future. This is a significant piece of research because it demonstrates the advantages of the scenario planning process as a method to illuminate the potential future dangers and opportunities in the water industry's business environment. The scenarios can be used as a launching pad for strategic planning and to prepare the water industry for the uncertainties it faces. Water is precious and essential to life. Water supply is arguably the ultimate essential service. Australia uses about 22,000 gigalitres of water [l gigalitre (GL) = 1,000,000,000 litres, approximately 444 Olympic swimming pools (ABS 2004)] per annum across all sectors, irrigation, industry and domestic. The aim of this study was to determine the critical issues for the future of the Australian urban water supply industry. The study achieved this with the aid of scenarios that tell stories about urban water supply to the year 2025. A key to this study is the concept of organisations as living organisms, which are capable of learning and adapting to changes in their business environment. Today's business environment is constantly changing through globalisation, technological innovation and society's values. To survive, organisations must be able to anticipate and adapt to this often uncertain environment.Traditional methods, from a mechanistic perspective, of developing strategic plans for the future have a poor track record because they invariably rely on forecasting and predicting the future from historical information that, in an increasingly uncertain and fast changing world, may no longer be appropriate. Scenarios are stories about the future. They combine uncertainty and trends with creativity, insight and intuition to enable an organisation to learn and develop strategies for the future from an organic perspective. Scenarios are not predictions, but they are plausible stories about the future. The stories do allow an organisation to re-perceive a different world by questioning prevailing paradigms and assumptions. The underlying philosophical basis for scenario planning is constructivist which is consistent with the ontological position taken for this study. This study was undertaken under a qualitative research paradigm. The ontological position taken to answer the research question was constructivist with a critical perspective where realities are intangible mental constructs based on the culture and experience of individuals or groups. Constructs are more or less informed and changeable. From an epistemological perspective the constructivist position assumes that the enquirer and subject of the research are interactively linked so that findings are created. Research under a constructivist paradigm requires a hermeneutical and dialectical methodology leading to interpretation.The methodology adopted for this study was grounded research, being a modification of grounded theory and applicable to the business environment. Data were initially gathered by semi-structured interview, the objective being two fold. 1. The data were used to elicit critical issues for the future of the Australian urban water supply industry. 2. The data were used to develop 'plausible' futures for the urban water supply industry in the form of scenarios. The data were analysed using grounded research principles and organised using NVivo (Richards 1999; NVivo 2002). After two stages of analysis, 16 major categories, focusing on the future emerged from the data. In order to write the scenarios two key uncertainties critical to the future of the urban water supply industry were required for the scenario matrix. The two selected were 'Water availability' and 'Technological change' from the water industry's contextual environment. These two key uncertainties were considered to be the most uncertain and have the greatest impact on the future of the water industry. These two key uncertainties formed the context for the scenarios into which over 200 other issues were de-dimentionalised, as in the scenario planning method, and crafted into four scenarios. A time horizon of 2025 was selected for the scenarios to reflect the water industry's long term planning horizon.The scenarios were called 'Decadent water use', which depicts a future where there is plenty of water and technology addresses the cost of service delivery; 'Smart water world', which depicts a future where water is scarce but is addressed by technology providing alternative sources of water; 'Muddy waters', which depicts a future where there is plenty of water but technology does not address the cost of delivery and issues of infrastructure deterioration and 'Mad Max water world', which depicts a future where water is scarce and technology does not address the scarcity, the situation becomes a crisis. From the scenarios and using concepts from complex adaptive systems theory a number of critical issues emerged from the data. Some were at a philosophical level such as whether water, as a common good, fits with society's philosophy about water. Others were at a practical level for example expressing the criticality for the water industry to build community trust and support. The research notes the potential for further qualitative research in the fields of community attitudes and behaviours towards water, water services, recycling wastewater and the preparedness to pay for water services. In addition there is potential to further develop scenarios presented in this study; 'Decadent water use', 'Smart water world', 'Muddy waters' and 'Mad Max water world'; for the Australian urban water supply industry using the data from this research as a basis for group consultation.
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Lindh, Björn. "Four stories about the future - Exploring possible futures for the technical writer in a collaborative media landscape." Thesis, Malmö högskola, Fakulteten för kultur och samhälle (KS), 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-23369.
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As a technical writer I have come to see that the collaborative media landscape has started to change the way many B2C companies work with support information. It is companies producing software based consumer products that has taken the lead in this new way of approaching the customers. More and more companies in other product segments are starting to go in the same direction. But what happens to the technical writer when more and more customers are creating their own support information? The death of the technical writer has been proclaimed for several years. It is no wonder that one asks: What is the future role of the technical writer facing the challenges with collaborative media? That is also the research question for this thesis.To investigate this I have experimented with a method called scenario planning and scenario writing. In order to get a well-grounded base of trends to create the scenarios from I’ve concluded a rigorous empirical base. The following methods where used: In-depth interviews with practitioners in the technical writer field Content analysis of a support forum Email interviews with frequent forum users.It was clear that when implementing new media structures it also involves new challenges. These challenges could potentially also lead to new roles for the technical writer. The challenges I consider to be most important were; trust, transparency, motivation and information overload. To facilitate those needs and challenges roles like community manager, content curator and content strategist are needed.With those roles in mind I created four scenarios. Each with a different take on collaborative media (and one that actually ignored this emerge). The names of the scenarios are: The outcasts The insider matter Sharing is caring The third player
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Raford, Noah (Noah A. ). "Large scale participatory futures systems : a comparative study of online scenario planning approaches." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/68444.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 2011.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 224-231).
This dissertation explores the role that participatory online collective intelligence systems might play in urban planning research. Specifically, it examines methodological and practical issues raised by the design and use of such systems in long-term policy formulation, with a focus on their potential as data collection instruments and analytical platforms for qualitative scenario planning. The research questions addressed herein examine how the use of collective intelligence platforms informs the process of scenario planning in urban public policy. Specifically, how (if at all) does the design and deployment of such platforms influence the number and type of participants involved, people's reasons for participation, the kinds of activities they perform, and the speed and timeline of the scenario creation process? Finally, what methodological considerations does the use of such instruments raise for urban planning research in the future? In-depth interviews with experts in the fields of urban planning, public participation, crowdsourcing, and scenarios were conducted, combined with secondary analysis of comparable approaches in related fields. The results were used to create an analytical framework for comparing systems across a common set of measurement constructs. Findings were then used to develop a series of prototypical online platforms that generated data for two related urban planning cases. These were then analyzed relative to a base case, using the framework described above. The dissertation closes with a reflection on how the use of such online approaches might impact the role and process of qualitative scenario research in public policy formulation in the future, and what this suggests for subsequent scholarly inquiry.
by Noah Raford.
Ph.D.
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Cox, Brian Anthony. "Discovering the essence of organisational learning by studying the effectiveness of scenario planning." Thesis, University of Strathclyde, 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.248733.
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Ntombela, Sifiso Mboneni. "Scenario development to support strategic planning in the south african table grape industry." Thesis, Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/4160.
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Thesis (MScAgric (Agricultural Economics))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The South African table grape industry has evolved significantly in the last two decades. Ever improving supply chain technologies, post-harvest technology innovation, and more efficient production inputs have all stimulated the production of table grapes in all five South African production regions. While the industry in general is well developed, from the late 1990s the competitiveness status of the South African table grape industry has been negative as far as international competitiveness is rated. Prior to this, from 1961 to 1998, the industry had recorded positive trends in competitiveness. The recent decline, from as early as the 2000s, in the competitiveness of the industry can be attributed to rising competition from alternate Southern Hemisphere suppliers, increasing production costs and export costs, as well as inadequate market diversification. As a result of its negative competitiveness status, the table grape industry wants to diversify its export markets in order to improve and protect the industry‟s position in the global table grape markets. The objective of this study is to investigate the viability of specific export market diversification scenarios. The aim is to evaluate the potential impact on the table grape industry if export volumes were to be relocated from traditional to emerging markets, and the potential risk if the industry were to maintain the current market distribution. The study developed a deterministic farm-level model based on accounting principles as a tool for simulating and analysing the impact of changes in markets on the financial viability of farms under different scenarios. A scenario development process is adopted in this study as it offers the possibility of integrating various kinds of data in a consistent manner, and it can represent the views and expectations of several stakeholders simultaneously. Three scenarios were developed: (i) Scenario 1 presents the continuation of current market distributions (i.e. 85% of South African exports are marketed in Europe and another 15% are distributed to other global markets); (ii) Scenario 2A depicts a situation where export volumes are slowly redistributed to emerging markets; and (iii) Scenario 2B presents a situation where export volumes are rapidly redistributed to emerging markets. The targets for both Scenarios 2A and 2B are to market 60% of South African exports to Europe and 40% to other global markets. Scenarios 2A and 2B are driven by similar factors, including improving industry information, globalisation, increasing competition, and table grape prices An analysis of factors shaping the table grape export sector shows that the industry can no longer afford to send large export quantities predominantly to its traditional markets, due to increasing competition and diminishing market prices. Furthermore, the analysis shows that continuing with the current market diversification will have a negative impact on the industry, as farm returns, employment and farm units will decline under this scenario. The results suggest that the industry would be better off if export volumes were redistributed away from Europe to other markets.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Gedurende die laaste twee dekades het die Suid Afrikaanse Tafeldruif Industrie met rasse skrede vooruitgegaan. Dit kan grootliks toegeskryf word aan verbeterde tegnologiese ontwikkeling en innovasie in die voorsieningsketting en na-oes tegnologie arenas, asook aan meer doeltreffende produksie insette wat produksie toenames in al vyf die Suid Afrikaanse produksie areas gestimuleer het. Alhoewel die industrie relatief goed ontwikkeld was sedert sy ontstaan, was die kompeterende status daarvan meestal negatief sedert die 1990‟s, gemeet aan internasionale kompetisie. Daar was egter tussen 1961 en 1998 ook positiewe mededinging tendense. Die onlangse verlaagde vlakke van mededingendheid van die industrie (veral sedert die vroeë 2000‟s) kan toegeskryf word aan verhoogde kompetisie vanaf ander Suidelike Halfrond verskaffers, verhoogde produksie- en uitvoerkoste, asook aan onvoldoende mark diversifisering. As gevolg van die negatiewe mededingendheid status, wil die tafeldruif industrie sy uitvoer markte diversifiseer om te verseker dat die industrie sy posisie in die globale tafeldruif mark kan beskerm. Die doel van hierdie studie is dus om die lewensvatbaarheid van spesifieke uitvoer mark diversifisering scenario‟s te ondersoek. Daarmee saam is die potensiële impak op die industrie ook bepaal vir (a) „n hoë persentasie uitvoer volumes wat verskuif vanaf tradisionele markte na ontluikende market, of (b) wat die risiko sal wees indien die huidige markverspreiding vlakke behou word. Die studie ontwikkel „n deterministiese plaasvlak model, gebaseer op rekeningkundige beginsels, om as hulpmiddel te dien vir die simulering en analise van die impak van verandering van teikenmarkte op die fnansiële lewensvatbaarheid van plase onder verskillende omstandighede. „n Scenario intwikkelings proses word in hierdie studie aangeneem aangesien dit toelaat vir die integrasie van verskillende tipes data op „n eenvormige wyse, terwyl dit ook die sieninge en verwagtinge van verskeie rolspelers terselfdertyd kan verteenwoordig. Drie scenario‟s word ontwikkel naamlik (i) Scenario 1: Dit verteenwoordig die huidige mark verspreiding (85% van Suid Afrikaanse uitvoere word in Europa bemark terwyl 15% versprei word na ander globale markte); (ii) Scenario 2A: Hier word die situasie uitgebeeld indien uitvoer volumes stadig herverdeel word na ontluikende markte; en (iii) Scenario 2B: Hier word die situasie uitgebeeld indien uitvoer volumes vinnig herverdeel word na ontluikende markte. Die teikens vir beide Scenario 2A en 2B is om 60% van die Suid Afrikaanse uitvoere in Europa te bemark en 40% in ander globale markte. Beide scenario‟s word deur dieselfde faktore gestu wat onder andere verbeterde industrie inligting, globalisering, verhoogde kompetisie en produk pryse insluit. „n Ontleding van die vormende faktore van die tafeldruif uitvoer sektor toon dat die industrie nie langer kan bekostig om hoë uitvoer volumes na die tradisionele markte te stuur nie, as gevolg van sterker kompetisie en krimpende markpryse. Die ontleding toon ook verder dat, indien voortgegaan word met die huidige mark diversifiserings model, die industrie negatief beïnvloed sal word in terme van verlaagde plaas inkomste, werkverskaffing en die aantal boerdery eenhede. Die uitslae dui dus daarop dat die industrie beter daaraan toe sal wees indien die huidige uitvoer volumes herverdeel kan word na ander (nie-Europese) markte.
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Mbasuen, Timothy Sesugh. "The sustainability assessment of energy policy in Nigeria : scenario planning and integrated modelling." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2013. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:2512a910-2294-4682-a7ef-5f7b791cc1fd.
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This thesis presents a novel policy assessment tool that serves as a decision support framework for analysis of energy policy problems involving multilevel, multidimensional and multi-stakeholder complexity. This new approach, The Energy Policy Assessment Technique (E-PAT), integrates System Dynamics Simulation and Multi-Criteria Evaluation models into a unified assessment framework. The E-PAT doubles as a systems-thinking model and a multi-criteria evaluation archetype. The E-PAT is designed for assessing policy issues, particularly those relating to energy planning in a national context. It is a suitable tool for evaluation and selection of optimal policies from competing and conflicting alternatives. To test its robustness and practical application, a case study on energy policy evaluation in Nigeria is carried out with this tool. A model of the Nigerian energy economy was constructed, and three proposed government policies for Sustainable Energy Development were evaluated relative to a Business-As-Usual case. The evaluation process identified âbestâ policy options according to stakeholder viewpoints. The original contribution of this research is the creation of an integrated, transparent and comprehensive assessment tool, and the development of measurable Energy Sustainability Indicators (ESI), to aid policymakers in diverse policy analysis. The new tool is intended to support assessment of energy policies in relation to impacts on the economy, society and environment.
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Derrick, Deborah Chippington. "Models, methods and algorithms for supply chain planning." Thesis, Brunel University, 2011. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/6024.
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An outline of supply chains and differences in the problem types is given. The motivation for a generic framework is discussed and explored. A conceptual model is presented along with it application to real world situations; and from this a database model is developed. A MIP and CP implementations are presented; along with alternative formulation which can be use to solve the problems. A local search solution algorithm is presented and shown to have significant benefits. Problem instances are presented which are used to validate the generic models, including a large manufacture and distribution problem. This larger problem instance is not only used to explore the implementation of the models presented, but also to explore the practically of the use of alternative formulation and solving techniques within the generic framework and the effectiveness of such methods including the neighbourhood search solving method. A stochastic dimension to the generic framework is explored, and solution techniques for this extension are explored, demonstrating the use of solution analysis to allow problem simplification and better solutions to be found. Finally the local search algorithm is applied to the larger models that arise from inclusion of scenarios, and the methods is demonstrated to be powerful for finding solutions for these large model that were insoluble using the MIP on the same hardware.
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Bowman, Gary. "An empirical analysis of a scenario-informed strategic planning process : a public sector case." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/1978.
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This thesis lies at the nexus of scenario planning and strategy. Scenario planning is a foresight activity used extensively in strategic planning and public policy development to imagine alternative, plausible futures as means to understand the driving forces behind the uncertainties and possibilities of a changing environment. Despite significant application in both private and public sectors, and a growing body of academic and practitioner-orientated literature, little empirical evidence exists about how organisations actually use scenario planning to inform strategy. Moreover, the emerging Strategy-as-Practice (S-as-P) perspective, which has exposed strategy to more sociological pursuits, presented a way of conceiving and studying strategy not as something an organisation has, but rather as something people do. By examining the activities of scenario planning, understanding its use as an example of episodic, interactive strategizing, S-as-P provides a theoretical lens through which to perform a much-needed empirical analysis of the scenario-to-strategy process. A second goal of the thesis is to advance understanding of the S-as-P perspective by addressing recent criticisms as well as contributing to the growing body of practice-based research. The central research question which guides the thesis is, how does an organisation use scenario planning to inform the strategic planning process? To answer this question, the research vehicle is a single, in-depth case study of community planning in Fife, which extends from 1999 until April 2008. A detailed, longitudinal narrative of Fife’s scenario planning and strategy process is presented before using empirical evidence from the case to understand how an organisation manages the scenario planning process, how scenario planning affects policy development, and how cognitive processes manifest physically in an organisation. The thesis concludes that scenario planning created a sensemaking/sensegiving framework that provided structural and interpretive legitimacy which facilitated communicative activities and helped the Fife Partnership understand and improve the interconnectedness of Fife’s public services and community planning process. While contributing to the S-as-P research agenda, the investigation of the scenario-to-strategy process also revealed, and solidified, a number of criticisms that challenge the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical validity of the strategy-as-practice perspective.
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Burgess, Amy G. "Promoting Domestic Water Conservation through the Utilization of a Scenario-Based Planning Support System." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2010. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1277000131.
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Lang, Trudi J. "Essays on how scenario planning and the building of new social capital are related." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2012. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:8a081082-0d41-4022-b323-e026239cfdec.
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This dissertation explores the relationship between scenario planning and the building of new social capital in addressing potential or actually perceived environmental turbulence. In particular, the research explores how, when environments around organizations risk unpredictable and disruptive change, people in those organizations can act to develop new social capital that contributes to their survival. In this research, I present scenario planning as a mechanism for organizations to build this new social capital. Scholars have suggested that certain forms of social capital are more conducive to being directly built than others. My research indicates that scenario planning entails aspects which, in effect, are direct investments in creating the cognitive social capital resources that make new sense of turbulence. These resources are created with the scenario process articulating new conceptual framings and possibilities for the future, thereby re-conceptualizing the situation. The resources enable new shared meanings to be created - directly building the cognitive dimension of new social capital while enabling the more researched structural and relational dimensions to be built as by-products. This dissertation also suggests that social capital can be built more quickly than researchers have previously indicated. By directly investing in the creation of new shared meanings, scenario planning can build new social capital faster than the centuries that Putnam and generations that Emery and Trist suggested were needed. The dissertation’s contribution to the social capital literature is to suggest how new social capital, by foregrounding the cognitive dimension, can be purposefully and more quickly built to address turbulent conditions. The contribution to the scenario planning literature is to propose a scholarly explanation for how scenario planning builds new social capital, suggested in practice but not yet theorized, and in so doing, provide practitioners with a new purpose to strengthen the return on investments these efforts require.
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Robinson, Thomas Russell. "Assessment of coseismic landsliding from an Alpine fault earthquake scenario, New Zealand." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Department of Geological Sciences, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/10029.
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Disasters can occur without warning and severely test society’s capacity to cope, significantly altering the relationship between society and the built and natural environments. The scale of a disaster is a direct function of the pre-event actions and decisions taken by society. Poor pre-event planning is a major contributor to disaster, while effective pre-event planning can
substantially reduce, and perhaps even avoid, the disaster. Developing and undertaking effective planning is therefore a vital component of disaster risk management in order to achieve
meaningful societal resilience. Disaster scenarios present arguably the best and most effective basis to plan an effective emergency response to future disasters.
For effective emergency response planning, disaster scenarios must be as realistic as possible. Yet for disasters resulting from natural hazards, intricately linked secondary hazards and effects make development of realistic scenarios difficult. This is specially true for large earthquakes in mountainous terrain. The primary aim of this thesis is therefore to establish a detailed and realistic disaster scenario for a Mw8.0 earthquake on the plate boundary Alpine fault in the South Island of New Zealand with specific emphasis on secondary effects. Geologic evidence of re-historic earthquakes on this fault suggest widespread and large-scale landsliding has resulted throughout the Southern Alps, yet, currently, no attempts to quantitatively model this landsliding have been undertaken. This thesis therefore provides a first attempt at quantitative assessments of the likely scale and impacts of landsliding from a future Mw8.0 Alpine fault earthquake.
Modelling coseismic landsliding in regions lacking historic inventories and geotechnical data (e.g. New Zealand) is challenging. The regional factors that control the spatial distribution of landsliding however, are shown herein to be similar across different environments. Observations from the 1994 Northridge, 1999 Chi-Chi, and 2008 Wenchuan earthquakes
identified MM intensity, slope angle and position, and distance from active faults and streams as factors controlling the spatial distribution of landsliding. Using fuzzy logic in GIS, these factors are able to successfully model the spatial distribution of coseismic landsliding from both the 2003 and 2009 Fiordland earthquakes in New Zealand. This method can therefore be applied to estimate the scale of landsliding from scenario earthquakes such as an Alpine fault event.
Applied to an Mw8.0 Alpine fault earthquake, this suggests that coseismic landsliding could affect an area >50,000 km2 with likely between 40,000 and 110,000 landslides occurring.
Between 1,400 and 4,000 of these are expected to present a major hazard. The environmental impacts from this landsliding would be severe, particularly in west-draining river catchments, and sediment supply to rivers in some catchments may exceed 50 years of background rates. Up to 2 km3 of total landslide debris is expected, and this will have serious and long-term consequences. Fluvial remobilisation of this material could result in average aggradation depths on active alluvial fans and floodplains of 1 m, with maximum depths substantially larger. This is of particular concern to the agriculture industry, which relies on the fertile soils on many of the active alluvial fans affected.
This thesis also investigated the potential impacts from such landsliding on critical infrastructure. The State Highway and electrical transmission networks are shown to be particularly
exposed. Up to 2,000 wooden pole and 30 steel pylon supports for the transmission network are highly exposed, resulting in >23,000 people in the West Coast region being exposed
to power loss. At least 240 km of road also has high exposure, primarily on SH6 between Hokitika and Haast, and on Arthur’s and Lewis Passes. More than 2,750 local residents in Westland District are exposed to isolation by road as a result. The Grey River valley region is identified as the most critical section of the State Highway network and pre-event mitigation is strongly recommended to ensure the road and bridges here can withstand strong shaking and liquefaction hazards. If this section of the network can remain functional post-earthquake,
the emergency response could be based out of Wellington using Nelson as a forward operating base with direct road access to some of the worst-affected locations. However, loss of functionality of this section of road will result in >24,000 people becoming isolated across almost the entire West Coast region.
This thesis demonstrates the importance and potential value of pre-event emergency response planning, both for the South Island community for an Alpine fault earthquake, and globally for all such hazards. The case study presented demonstrates that realistic estimates of potential coseismic landsliding and its impacts are possible, and the methods developed herein can be applied to other large mountainous earthquakes. A model for developing disaster scenarios in collaboration with a wide range of societal groups is presented and shown to be an effective method for emergency response planning, and is applicable to any hazard and location globally. This thesis is therefore a significant contribution towards understanding mountainous earthquake hazards and emergency response planning.
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Albert, Christian [Verfasser]. "Scenario-based landscape planning : influencing decision-making through substantive outputs and social learning / Christian Albert." Hannover : Technische Informationsbibliothek und Universitätsbibliothek Hannover (TIB), 2012. http://d-nb.info/1022753908/34.
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Kafka, Concepcion Alexandra. "Understanding supply chain trade-offs through models and scenario planning with a focus on postponement." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/99006.
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Thesis: M.B.A., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 2015. In conjunction with the Leaders for Global Operations Program at MIT.Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2015. In conjunction with the Leaders for Global Operations Program at MIT.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 65-66).
The two objectives of this project were to develop an understanding of the challenges and opportunities of the supply chain of a family of currently marketed products manufactured overseas and distributed/sold worldwide and to increase the agility of the supply chain while achieving a target service level of 99% and maintaining or decreasing costs. A model was created to explore the current supply chain as well as the idea of supply chain agility through the implementation of postponement as models can easily be used to understand the cause and effect relationships through the ability to analyze any number of possible outcomes in a time and cost effective manner. Monthly demand and forecast data was analyzed to determine if there were in biases in the forecasts and to understand the relation between demand and forecast error through the use of a power law model. The forecast and demand data demonstrated a strong log-log relationship between RMSE and demand implying that there are economies of scale when demand is aggregated. The model shows that the implementation of postponement can reduce overall inventory levels, leading to decreased supply chain costs (if the cost of implementing postponement is less than the savings achieved through the inventory decrease). In looking at air versus ocean transport, the savings coming from inventory reduction due to decreasing lead times outweighed the increase in costs for both supply chain designs. As expected, increasing forecast accuracy leads to a decrease in safety stocks while decreasing forecast accuracy leads to an increase. Finally, increasing demand lead to increasing safety stocks and costs while decreasing demand had the opposite effect. For the forecast accuracy and changing demand scenarios there is a larger magnitude of savings for the current design of the supply chain than for one with postponement.
by Concepcion Alexandra Kafka.
M.B.A.
S.M.
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Gordon, Adam Victor. "Adaptive vs. visionary-advocacy approaches in scenario planning : implications of contrasting purposes and constraint conditions." Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/10526.
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Includes bibliographical references.Scenario planning has steadily grown to become a significant part of business and organisational foresight processes, particularly where planning situations demand approaches beyond traditional forecasting, due to extent of uncertainty variables or length of future time under consideration. However, despite general consensus as to the importance of the scenario approach in general, and rapid growth in both theory and practice in the field, fundamental questions remain over which situations are most tractable to scenario planning and why; and, in the face of uneven success in application, which among an apparent myriad scenario planning approaches best serves different planning situations, or organisations holding different goals. This dissertation makes an intervention into this problem, investigating to what extent scenario planning projects can be separated by underlying project purpose, and, based on original primary case studies and case-based structured interviews, finds that two meta-categories of purpose exist, which are here referred to as 'adaptive' and 'visionary-advocacy' purposes. It is argued that a purpose-based distinction of scenario modes provides part-explanation of the effective basis, or absence thereof, of scenario work for different situations - a basis which is achieved via congruence of scenario project purpose with (a) underlying organisational planning purpose, and (b) the extent of organisational influence over external conditions, including macro-variables of change, that constrain it. These findings suggest additions to scenario method as currently understood, particularly pre-project analysis (audits) of both an organisation's planning purpose and its external constraint conditions, to ascertain the presence of absence of necessary congruencies, so as to inform adoption of the purpose platform (and allied methodology) more likely to produce successful outcomes in application.
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Meyerowitz, Danielle Loretta. "The use of foresight and scenario planning in strategic decision making by South African executives." Diss., University of Pretoria, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/52254.
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In today s modern world an executive s ability to make sense of complexity in order to make effective strategic decisions is of the upmost importance. Strategic foresight, and scenario planning specifically, has frequently been proposed as an effective method of overcoming the inherent cognitive limitations decision makers face. However, in spite of this the prevalence and perceived usefulness of scenario planning as a strategic decision making tool has yet to be established. This research is therefore an attempt to address this issue while at the same time exploring different methods of managing complexity in a dynamic South African market.
The research involves a qualitative study containing 15 in-depth, face to face interviews with South African executives. The use of an exploratory research method allowed for a broad enquiry into the presence, utilisation, antecedents and enablers of scenario planning in South African executives decision making. Content and thematic data analysis was done in order to determine key themes from the data obtained during the interview process.
The outcome of this research study has resulted in three models that can be applied in order to improve strategic decision making and foresight. The first model relates to the key enablers of a strategic decision and integrates the various intrapersonal, interpersonal and environmental elements involved in a strategic decision. The second model contributes to the current research about leadership in complex systems and strategic foresight by identifying the entrepreneurial mind-set as a way of managing increasing complexity and developing a competitive advantage in the South African marketplace. The third is an integrated model representing the enablers, benefits, process challenges and potential inhibitors of scenario planning as a strategic decision making tool by South African executives.Mini-disseration (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2015.
nk2016
Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS)
MBA
Unrestricted
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Lin, Kuan-Wen, and 林貫文. "Scenario Planning as Framing." Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/90128217398892257498.
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碩士國立清華大學
科技管理研究所
102
In today's democratic society, whether politicians or business leaders need an effective policy marketing strategy powerful tool to persuade their followers to do. The concept of framing is that the leader motivates followers to achieve the set goal through making emphasize some communication or promotional content, and guide the people to focus on a particular viewing angle. The approach of scenario planning provides a variety of possible future scenarios to expand the frames of reference, and take more broad and liberal thinking way to have consensus-building. The process of scenario planning approach as the framing tool is to design some possible future scenarios, develop common language, and therefore reaching a consensus within the organization. This article also serves several cases ,which is related to scenario planning as the framing tool. Including Shell coping with the oil crisis successfully with using scenarios; the role of Icarus scenario in the democratization in South Africa; the scenarios about students occupied Legislative Yuan, the scenarios related to government's housing policy; and analyzing records of the 9th national science and technology conference.
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Lin, Yu-ting, and 林玉婷. "Scenario Planning of Handheld Device." Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/9npcz3.
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碩士國立中央大學
企業管理研究所
96
In order to look for the appearance of future handheld device, the characteristics included in and the way to use or operate the handheld device are researched and explored. Scenario Planning which is one of the methods of Foresight Analysis is used to find out the results. After Scenario Planning analysis, the key decision factors of “way of data input / output” and “interface of data input / output” of future handheld device are light、thin、short、small、easy to carry、using in human nature and readable image. The external driving forces are found and located into the impact and uncertainty matrix. The uncertainty axes are：input through hand controlling、input through voice、interface of electronic paper and interface of projector. The 16 scenarios are developed according to each of the realizable and non-realizable uncertainty axes. 4 particular scenarios of those are described to provide the ways to develop the related technologies for research centers or organizations.