Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Scenario method'
Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles
Consult the top 50 dissertations / theses for your research on the topic 'Scenario method.'
Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.
You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.
Browse dissertations / theses on a wide variety of disciplines and organise your bibliography correctly.
Bengtsson, Jonna. "Scenario-Based Evaluation of a Method for System Security Assessment." Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Electrical Engineering, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-6004.
Full textThis thesis evaluates a method for system security assessment (MASS), developed at the Swedish Defence Research Agency in Linköping. The evaluation has been carried out with the use of scenarios, consisting of three example networks and several modifications of those. The results from the scenarios are then compared to the expectations of the author and a general discussion is taken about whether or not the results are realistic.
The evaluation is not meant to be exhaustive, so even if MASS had passed the evaluation with flying colors, it could not have been regarded as proof that the method works as intended. However, this was not the case; even though MASS responded well to the majority of the modifications, some issues indicating possible adjustments or improvements were found and commented on in this report.
The conclusion from the evaluation is therefore that there are issues to be solved and that the evaluated version of MASS is not ready to be used to evaluate real networks. The method has enough promise not to be discarded, though. With the aid of the issues found in this thesis, it should be developed further, along with the supporting tools, and be re-evaluated.
Hooper, Seth T. "Enhancing the enhanced scenario-based method of cost risk analysis." Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/10622.
Full textThomas, Victoria Katherine. "A Method for Scenario-based Risk Assessment for Robust Aerospace Systems." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/14536.
Full textKREMER, VALERIE JACOBS. "TOWARDS EXPANDING A METHODOLOGY: UTILIZING SCENARIO PLANNING IN FASHION FORECASTING." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2002. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1022782166.
Full textSiketina, Natalya Hennadievna. "Strategies for sustainable development of machine-building enterprise." Thesis, Mieszko I School of Education and Administration, 2018. http://repository.kpi.kharkov.ua/handle/KhPI-Press/36610.
Full textSundmark, Thomas. "Improvement and Scenario-Based Evaluation of the eXtended Method for Assessment of System Security." Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Electrical Engineering, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-16555.
Full textThis master’s thesis consists of a scenario-based evaluation of an IT-security assessment method known as the eXtendedMethod for Assessment of System Security (XMASS), as well as an assessment of a real-world network using the softwareimplementation of this method known as the Security AssessmeNT Application (SANTA).This thesis also describes a number of improvements made to the software implementation, some which could also be addedto the method itself. These were performed during the preparation of the assessment but had no effect on the outcome.The evaluation showed that the method and implementation contained a number of flaws in the way the filtering effect ofthe traffic mediators of a network, such as network-based firewalls, was implemented. When it comes to the assessment ofthe real-world network it was seen that the network, given the supplied information regarding the software and hardwaresetup of its entities, appeared to be sufficiently secure to handle the transmission of data at the lowest classification level(Restricted). However, as with almost all security assessments, this does not mean that the network is guaranteed to besecure enough; it just indicates that, given the information specified, the network has the potential of being sufficientlysecure.The main conclusion of this thesis is that the way XMASS and SANTA calculates the effect of filtering traffic mediatorsshould be looked into and improved to increase the usability of the tool. The method can however still be used in its currentstate, but requires the individual(s) performing the assessment to be aware of the drawbacks of the current implementationand thus compensate for these when producing the input for the assessment method.
Siketina, Natalya Hennadievna. "Scenario approach to develop machine-building enterprise’s strategy." Thesis, Аналітичний центр "Нова Економіка", 2017. http://repository.kpi.kharkov.ua/handle/KhPI-Press/32893.
Full textJiang, Hongjun. "The development of a scenario independent method for evaluating the evacuation complexity of a building." Thesis, University of Greenwich, 2012. http://gala.gre.ac.uk/8783/.
Full textStix, Volker. "Stochastic branch & bound applying target oriented branch & bound method to optimal scenario tree reduction." Institut für Informationsverarbeitung und Informationswirtschaft, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2002. http://epub.wu.ac.at/1212/1/document.pdf.
Full textSeries: Working Papers on Information Systems, Information Business and Operations
Pradhan, Ligaj. "User Interface Test Automation and its Challenges in an Industrial Scenario." Thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för innovation, design och teknik, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-14126.
Full textEly, Geoffrey Palarz. "A method for dynamic earthquake rupture simulation with applications to a large Southern San Andreas scenario." Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2008. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3303629.
Full textTitle from first page of PDF file (viewed June 12, 2008). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Vita. Includes bibliographical references.
Coroamǎ, Vlad-Constantin. "Scenario-driven prototyping for ubiquitous computing : a novel method for the assessment of technological challenges and societal implications /." Zürich : ETH, 2008. http://e-collection.ethbib.ethz.ch/show?type=diss&nr=17850.
Full textUlin, Samuel. "Digging deep : A data-driven approach to model reduction in a granular bulldozing scenario." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för fysik, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-152498.
Full textSharma, Kritika. "Comparing the Effectiveness of Scenario-Based Learning vs. Traditional Training Method on an Individual’s Call Quality Score: A Case Study." Thesis, North Dakota State University, 2018. https://hdl.handle.net/10365/29227.
Full textSharma, Kritika. "Comparing the Effectiveness of Scenario-Based Learning vs. Traditional Training Method on an Individual?s Call Quality Score: A Case Study." Thesis, North Dakota State University, 2018. https://hdl.handle.net/10365/29227.
Full textJohansson, Karin, and Frida Ljungek. "ADDRESSING GRID CAPACITY THROUGH TIME SERIES : Deriving a data driven and scenario-based method for long-term planning of local grids." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Solcellsteknik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-413377.
Full textGunzenhauser, Jan. "Application of real-time HRV biofeedback in the scenario of meditation practice : Feasibility, usability and medical fidelity." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för medieteknik (ME), 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-45420.
Full textDai, Xu. "Extended travelling fire method framework with an OpenSees-based integrated tool SIFBuilder." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/33088.
Full textEndrikat, Jan, Franziska Schlage, and Julia Hillmann. "Ökonomische und ökologische Bewertung der Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf die Siedlungsentwässerung." Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2011. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-38553.
Full textRonstad, David. "A Comparison between two different Methods to Verify Fire Safety Design in Buildings." Thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, Byggkonstruktion och brand, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-62258.
Full textI dagens nordiska byggbransch är det svårt för nya och innovativa byggnadslösningar att införas på grund av de preskriptiva och fyrkantiga regelverk som finns. Handel av produkter och tjänster över gränserna är något som kan luckra upp den tuffa marknaden, men det är svårt på grund av bristen utav gemensamma internationella regelverk som är funktionsbaserade med möjlighet till fire safety engeinnering. Det är något som ett nordiskt innovationsprojekt kallat Fire Safety Engineering for Innovative and Sustainable Building Solutions vill förändra. Genom att införa en ny probabilistisk metod för att verifiera brandsäkerheten i byggnader, med avsikten att skapa en nordisk standard, kan förhoppningsvis delar av dessa problem lösas. Det fjärde arbetspaketet inom projektet består av att testa den nya metoden, vilket denna avhandling är en del av. Tanken är att bedöma och ta fram förbättringsförslag till den nya probabilistiska metoden genom att jämföra den med en befintlig scenariobaserad metod och presentera förbättringsrekommendationer. Jämförelse av probabilistiska metoden utförs mot en svensk verifieringsprocess som baseras på Boverkets allmänna råd om analytisk dimensionering av byggnaders brandskydd (BBRAD) genom att verifiera brandsäkerheten i ett parkeringsgarage, som ligger under en kontorsbyggnad, med båda verifieringsmetoderna. De två funktionsbaserade analyserna behandlar avvikelser från en förenklad dimensionering, som är utförd enligt Boverkets Byggregler (BBR), och resultaten av dessa verifikationer jämförs. De krav som verifieras är; utrymning i händelse av brand, skydd mot uppkomst av brand, skydd mot utveckling och spridning av brand och rök i byggnader, skydd mot brandspridning mellan byggnader, möjlighet till räddningsinsats och att säkerställa bärförmåga vid brand. Brandskyddets utformning och metodernas behandling av avvikelserna jämförs och analyseras vilket konkluderar i de rekommendationer för förbättring som presenteras. Frågor som har besvarats under arbetsprocessen är: Hur behandlar metoderna möjligheten att dimensionera brandsäkerheten utan sprinklersystem? Vad är den stora skillnaden mellan de två verifieringsmetoderna? Vilka förbättringar kan göras på den nya probabilistiska metoden? Rekommendationerna till förbättring som har tagits fram är baserad på arbetsprocessen i den probabilistiska metoden och jämförelsen med den svenska verifieringsprocessen. Utveckling av följande områden förespråkas: Behandling av kritiska nivåer i utrymningsscenarion Uppställning av en gemensam statistiskdatabas för de nordiska länderna Förbättrad förklaring om hur man utför valideringarna av analysen Avhandlingen omfattar inte alla delar som behövs vid bandskyddsprojektering utan fokusera endast på avvikelserna från den förenklade dimensioneringen. Verifikationen är endast utförd på parkeringsgaraget, det vill säga kontorsdelen av byggnaden behandlas inte.
Fire Safety Engineering for Innovative and Sustainable Building Solutions
Kůdela, Jakub. "Stochastická optimalizace v programu AIMMS." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta strojního inženýrství, 2014. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-231064.
Full textKwon, Saerom. "Study on tritium production property by D-T and D-D neutrons of LiPb blanket for fusion reactor." Kyoto University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/188826.
Full textJanhager, Jenny. "User Consideration in Early Stages of Product Development : Theories and Methods." Doctoral thesis, Stockholm : Department of Machine Design, Royal Institute of Technology [Institutionen för maskinkonstruktion, Kungl. Tekniska högskolan], 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-174.
Full textVaišnoras, Tomas. "Eenergetinio saugumo scenarijai: Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Lenkijos atvejis." Master's thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2010. http://vddb.laba.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2010~D_20100616_111730-69988.
Full textOver the last decade policy analysts around the world demonstrate a growing interest in future studies. It is influenced by the need to foresee economic, social or political changes in rapidly developing world. For a long time future studies in political and social sciences were considered unreliable. However, in the recent years, foresight became an important part of strategic planning, thus scenario building method is more and more often used by policy analysts. Uninterrupted and reliable energy supply is one of the main pillars of country’s national security. Future development of the energy sector depends on many variables such as the growing energy demand, the technological development, the liberalization of the energy markets etc. Therefore, if countries want to prepare properly for possible changes, consistent and rational political planning is needed. It is very important to assess the future challenges, possibilities and the most likely trends of development, whereas scenario building is the most suitable method for reaching these objectives. The main objective of this research paper is to build possible energy security scenarios for Lithuania, Latvia and Poland. First of all, to achieve this objective one needs to define energy security and scenario building method. It is also important to review the energy sector of each of the three countries, in order to find strengths, weaknesses and main threats to their security. The EU common energy policy has a direct... [to full text]
Limousin, Philippe. "Contribution à la scénarisation pédagogique d’exercices de crise." Thesis, Lyon, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017LYSEM033/document.
Full textRecent major crises show the necessity to train crisis managers to react quickly, under stress and in an uncomfortable position. This thesis deals with the scripting of crisis exercises for practical exercises (functional, large scale and simulator) involving strategic crisis cell. The art state of scriptwriting methods has shown shortcomings in accompanying scriptwriters to create pedagogical scenarios representative of a crisis. This work leads to the creation of a method that calls crisis management skills through crisis exercise scenarios. On the basis of this analysis, research has oriented on developing a method to solicit crisis management skills through crisis scenarios. To reproduce the crisis dynamic in created scenarios, a reading grid based on specific characteristics of crisis situations and related to the types of injectable stimuli in a scenario has been applied to six past crises. At the same time, the study of crisis managers skills allow us to create a database of training objectives coupled with stimuli.Finally, the methodology develops a step-by-step approach. It creates and situates the stimuli in the scenario. This original approach inserts these stimuli to solicit needed skills for several profiles of participants.Then, the scenarios are verified using criteria that validate the scriptwriting and the pedagogical nature of the scenario.The scriptwriting method was tested through a functional exercise and applied by several categories of scriptwriters (novice or crisis management experts) which validated its operational nature
Correia, Raquel Sequeira. "Methods of capital allocation in a Solvency II environment." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/14722.
Full textDe acordo com a regulamentação de Solvência II, o SCR é geralmente calculado usando uma fórmula padrão que considera os riscos que uma seguradora enfrenta. Devido à agregação dos diferentes riscos, são originados benefícios de diversificação e um valor de SCR total menor que a soma dos requisitos de capital de cada risco. Para ter em conta estes benefícios de diversificação, o capital total deve ser alocado de volta aos níveis mais baixos de risco, aplicando um método apropriado de alocação de capital. Este relatório é resultado de um estágio curricular que decorreu na EY. Um dos objetivos foi encontrar o método mais apropriado para realizar a alocação do SCR de uma empresa de seguros. Foram estudados cinco métodos de alocação, Proporcional, Variância-Covariância, Merton e Perold, Shapley e Euler. Os métodos são comparados teoricamente, analisando as suas respetivas propriedades e, com base em vários estudos presentes na literatura, conclui-se que o método de Euler é o mais apropriado. Este trabalho contribui para uma melhor compreensão dos métodos de alocação de capital e permite demonstrar como alocar o SCR. Contribui também para mostrar como construir o SES para fins do cálculo do ajustamento LAC DT. Visto que esta tarefa foi uma das dificuldades referidas no QIS 5, este trabalho pode servir como base literária, sendo útil para superar essas dificuldades.
Under Solvency II regulation the SCR is mainly calculated using a standard formula which considers the risks that an insurer faces. Due to this aggregation of risks, a diversification benefit is achieved and the global SCR is smaller than the sum of the capital requirements of each risk. To take these diversification benefits into account the total capital should be allocated back to the lower levels of risk by applying a proper method of capital allocation. This report is the result of a curricular internship that took place at EY. One of the goals was to find the most appropriate method to perform a capital allocation of the SCR of an insurance company. Five methods of allocation were studied, Proportional, Variance-Covariance, Merton and Perold, Shapley and Euler. The methods were compared theoretically by analyzing their respective properties, and based on several studies in the literature it is concluded that the Euler method is the most appropriate to apply. This report contributes to a better understanding of capital allocation methods and allows to demonstrate how to allocate the SCR. It also contributes to show how to construct the SES for the purpose of the calculation of the adjustment of LAC DT. Since this task was one of the difficulties enumerated in the Fifth Quantitative Impact Study (QIS 5), this work can serve as a literary base, being useful to overcome these difficulties.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Kremer, Stefan [Verfasser], P. [Akademischer Betreuer] Wölfle, and R. [Akademischer Betreuer] Frésard. "Thermal and Electric Properties of the Delafossites : The Apparent Fermi Liquid Scenario and the Extension of the Density Matrix Renormalization Group Method to Finite Temperatures / Stefan Kremer. Betreuer: P. Wölfle ; R. Frésard." Karlsruhe : KIT-Bibliothek, 2011. http://d-nb.info/101481779X/34.
Full textBoutahar, Jaouad. "Méthodes de réduction et de propagation d'incertitudes : application à un mùodèle de Chimie-Transport pour la modélisation et la stimulation des impacts." Marne-la-vallée, ENPC, 2004. https://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00007557.
Full textVon, der Gracht Heiko A. Jahns Christopher Darkow Inga-Lena. "The future of logistics : scenarios for 2025 /." Wiesbaden : Gabler, 2008. http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&doc_number=016522983&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA.
Full textVon, der Gracht Heiko A. Jahns Christopher. "The future of logistics scenarios for 2025 /." Wiesbaden : Gabler, 2008. http://site.ebrary.com/id/10245906.
Full textAu, Oliver T. S. "Requirements specification using concrete scenarios." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2009. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/6642.
Full textBushehri, Yousef. "Application of the functional scenarios method on alternative settings." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/55066.
Full textLöhndorf, Nils. "An empirical analysis of scenario generation methods for stochastic optimization." Elsevier, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2016.05.021.
Full textStar, Jonathan, Erika L. Rowland, Mary E. Black, Carolyn A. F. Enquist, Gregg Garfin, Catherine Hawkins Hoffman, Holly Hartmann, Katharine L. Jacobs, Richard H. Moss, and Anne M. Waple. "Supporting adaptation decisions through scenario planning: Enabling the effective use of multiple methods." ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/622731.
Full textGuarino, de Vasconcelos Luis Eduardo, André Yoshimi Kusumoto, Nelson Paiva Oliveira Leite, and Cristina Moniz Araújo Lopes. "Using Agile Methods for Software Development in R&D Scenario." International Foundation for Telemetering, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/596431.
Full textDue to the quick change of business processes in organizations, software needs to adapt quickly to meet new requirements by implementing new business rules. In Research and Development (R&D) scenario, the research is highly non-linear and changes are inevitable. In this context, it is known that traditional methodologies (e.g. waterfall) may lead to the detection of failures late, increase the time and cost of development and maintenance of software. On the other hand, agile methodologies are based on Test- Driven Development (TDD), maintain the technical debt under control, maximize the Return on Investment and reduce the risks for customers and companies. In this paper, we show the use of Scrum and TDD in the development of an experimental tool that aims to make the calibration in real time of the rudder of a fighter aircraft. The preliminary results allowed to increase the coverage testing of the software and hence the quality of the tool.
Crous, Duncan. "Biorefineries : a method to compare process alternatives using different economic scenarios." Diss., University of Pretoria, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/24528.
Full text- purchased equipment cost
- paterials of construction
- operating pressure
- time index factors
Dissertation (MEng)--University of Pretoria, 2011.
Chemical Engineering
unrestricted
Šabartová, Zuzana. "Prostorová dekompozice úloh stochastického programování s omezeními ve tvaru diferenciálních rovnic." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta strojního inženýrství, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-230116.
Full textPostma, Maarten Jacobus. "Assessment of the economic impact of aids at national and multi-national level development of a scenario-analytic approach to support health-care policy /." [Maastricht : Maastricht : Universiteit Maastricht] ; University Library, Maastricht University [Host], 1998. http://arno.unimaas.nl/show.cgi?fid=8426.
Full textЮрьева, Е. С., and E. S. Yureva. "Подходы к стратегическому планированию в высшем образовании : магистерская диссертация." Master's thesis, б. и, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10995/100865.
Full textThe paper examines the use of strategic planning in education, its methods, stages and technologies. The first part of the work examines the concept of "strategic planning", its tools and stages. Methods and technologies of strategic planning are also studied; the importance and implementation of strategic planning in education are discussed. The second part of the work examines and analyzes Russia's experience in strategic planning in higher education. Strategies for the development of higher education are considered, both in general and on the example of the HSE and KFU - universities participating in the 5-100 program, a comparative analysis of the strategic plans of these universities is carried out. Using the results of this study, one can study and analyze the picture of the conditions for the development of higher education in the Russian Federation, identify problems or advantages of using strategic planning technologies in higher education. The experience of using strategic planning in higher education can serve as a basis for finding theoretical solutions to many existing problems in higher education in Russia.
Derrick, Deborah Chippington. "Models, methods and algorithms for supply chain planning." Thesis, Brunel University, 2011. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/6024.
Full textMaina, Marcelo Fabián. "Design of pedagogical scenarios: adapting the MISA method to the IMS LD specification." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/9130.
Full textThis dissertation presents a research divided into four main phases of development and validation.
The first phase grounds the research in a theory of instructional design that aligns it with other related design disciplines, and decomposes the design problem into layers of artifact functionalities. This theory corresponds to software-engineering-infused instructional design methods also known as courseware engineering.
The second phase explores ways to integrate an educational modeling language within an instructional design method for enabling the representation of pedagogical scenarios of computational facture. To reflect and experiment on this issue, we have chosen to study the MISA instructional design method developed at the LICEF research center and the IMS LD specification.
The third phase presents an initial developmental solution, which is tested in a case study. We studied the introduction, into the MISA method, of a new technique supporting the design of a MISA pedagogical scenario according to IMS LD constraints. The aim was to test an 'economic' solution that would not require further modifications to the MISA method. We therefore conducted a case study where a technique for the representation of a conformed to IMS LD pedagogical scenario was applied to the transposition of a MISA pedagogical scenario by an expert instructional designer.
The fourth and final phase exends the development and validation of a solution by way of a two-round Delphi method. We requested the participation of four experts. This developmental step included a selection and introduction of minor modifications of a set of MISA documentation elements identified as crucial for the design of IMS LD compliant pedagogical scenario. The Delphi enabled agreement on an adapted version of the MISA method that fulfills the design purpose. The final outcome of the design process is a pedagogical scenario with all the information required to run an IMS LD-like pedagogical scenario organized in a semi-formal manner and capable of translation into a structured markup language for running in a compliant learning management system. In this sense, the pedagogical scenario results in a document that can be understood as an intermediate state between a blueprint and an executable UoL.
Flowerdew, Tom. "Methods for the identification and optimal exploitation of profitable betting scenarios." Thesis, Lancaster University, 2016. http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/80398/.
Full textSatt, Junior Sérgio. "Construção de cenário para uma refinaria de petróleo com baixa escala e não integrada: um estudo de caso." Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, 2012. http://www.repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/4108.
Full textMade available in DSpace on 2015-06-30T19:19:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Sergio Satt Junior.pdf: 2776264 bytes, checksum: de08438865c711b12dacc3721b268331 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-07-06
Nenhuma
O ambiente empresarial atual apresenta determinados eventos de alta incerteza e de difícil previsibilidade, é necessário que as empresas e seus gestores estejam preparados para atuar em novos e diferentes ambientes de negócios. A mudança no ambiente do refino de petróleo no Brasil iniciou com a abertura do mercado de combustíveis em 1997, Lei 9.478/97. Essa lei propiciou a participação de outros agentes, além da Petrobras, no exercício das atividades de importação e exportação de derivados de petróleo. O segmento de refino no Brasil tem apresentado ciclos de baixa e alta, pois os preços dos derivados nas refinarias não têm sido reajustados na mesma velocidade dos movimentos de preços dos derivados no mercado internacional. Com isso, as refinarias não integradas, é o caso estudado neste trabalho - a Refinaria de Petróleo Riograndense, têm apresentado menor rentabilidade se comparadas com refinarias integradas. Portanto, é necessário identificar eventuais vantagens competitivas que permitam sustentar o negócio deste tipo de refinaria a partir de uma perspectiva de longo prazo. Para tal, foi aplicado o método de construção de cenário Global Business Network (GBN), a fim de criar cenários futuros que apontem alternativas de atuação para uma refinaria de petróleo de baixa escala e não integrada. Além disso, verificar quais as contribuições que o método de construção de cenários GBN trouxe para a empresa e seus gestores. A pesquisa foi caracterizada como qualitativa, exploratória, utilizando o método pesquisa-ação para descrever melhor a construção dos cenários na empresa pesquisada. O resultado da pesquisa foi a geração de dois cenários futuros para a Refinaria Riograndense, onde se apresentam caminhos distintos de atuação no segmento de refino, considerando o ambiente futuro dos negócios e as características da empresa, ou seja, refinaria de petróleo de baixa escala e não integrada. As conclusões do trabalho indicam que o método de construção de cenário GBN contribui para melhorar a percepção da empresa e dos seus gestores sobre o ambiente do futuro do negócio, reduzindo erros no processo de tomada de decisão. Com isso, foi possível apontar caminhos futuros de sobrevivência para a empresa em um ambiente de forte competitividade e restrições ambientais. Também, o método GBN mostrou-se ser flexível às características da empresa, permitindo valorizar os conhecimentos e experiências dos gestores, bem como incentivar o envolvimento dos gestores no processo de construção de cenários.
In the current business environment, there are certain events with high uncertainty that make predictability difficult; thus, companies and their managers must be prepared to act in new and different business environments. Changes in the environment of oil refining in Brazil began with the opening of the fuel market in 1997, since Law 9,478/97 enabled other agents, in addition to Petrobras, to participate in activities related to the import and export of oil products. The refining segment in Brazil has experienced cycles with low and high prices because they have not been adjusted at the same speed as the ones of oil products in the international market. From this perspective, non-integrated refineries were analyzed in this study, mainly the Riograndense Oil Refinery, which has shown lower profitability than integrated ones. Therefore, potential competitive advantages that enable the business to support this type of refinery in the long term were identified. The method of building Global Business Network (GBN) scenarios was applied in order to create future scenarios which can suggest alternatives to a small-scale and non-integrated oil refinery. Besides, the contributions that the method of building GBN scenarios brought to the company and its managers were verified. This qualitative and exploratory research used action research to better describe scenario building in the company. Results generated two scenarios (Maverick and Revolution) for the future of the Riograndense Refinery; they showed distinct paths to be followed in the refining segment, taking into consideration the future of the business environment and the characteristics of the company, i. e., a small-scale and non-integrated oil refinery. The study concludes that the method of constructing GBN scenario helps to improve the perception of the company and its managers about the future of the business environment, reducing errors in the process of decision making. In addition, future directions for the company to survive in an environment with strong competition and environmental constraints could be identified. Furthermore, the GBN method proved to be flexible concerning the characteristics of the company since it valued managers’ knowledge and experience and encouraged them to get involved in the process of scenario building.
Schaffer, Jennifer Lynn. "Performance of a sampling stochastic dynamic programming algorithm with various inflow scenario generation methods." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/51884.
Full textApplied Science, Faculty of
Civil Engineering, Department of
Graduate
Gaskill-Clemons, Robert John. "Scenario Planning for Organizational Adaptability: The Lived Experiences of Executives." ScholarWorks, 2018. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/5078.
Full textBarth, Andreas. "Spatially comprehensive data for forestry scenario analysis : consequences of errors and methods to enhance usability /." Umeå : Dept. of Forest Resource Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 2007. http://epsilon.slu.se/2007101.pdf.
Full textLeidereiter, Conrad [Verfasser], and Hans Georg [Akademischer Betreuer] Bock. "Numerical Methods for Scenario Tree Nonlinear Model Predictive Control / Conrad Leidereiter ; Betreuer: Hans Georg Bock." Heidelberg : Universitätsbibliothek Heidelberg, 2018. http://d-nb.info/1177691760/34.
Full textWESTCOTT, KATHRYN M. "TEACHING PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION SKILLS TO TEACHER INTERNS: AN ANALYSIS OF INSTRUCTIONAL METHODS." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2002. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1014047935.
Full textZaytseva, K. "Methods of formation scenarios for solving the problems of sustainable development of regions." Thesis, Видавництво СумДУ, 2012. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/26817.
Full textNumberger, Siegfried. "New methods of scenario analysis and their application to detecting future structures of B2C E-commerce /." [S.l.] : [s.n.], 2006. http://opac.nebis.ch/cgi-bin/showAbstract.pl?sys=000254889.
Full text