To see the other types of publications on this topic, follow the link: Scenario method.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Scenario method'
Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles
Consult the top 50 dissertations / theses for your research on the topic 'Scenario method.'
Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.
You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.
Browse dissertations / theses on a wide variety of disciplines and organise your bibliography correctly.
1
Bengtsson, Jonna. "Scenario-Based Evaluation of a Method for System Security Assessment." Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Electrical Engineering, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-6004.
Full textAbstract:
<p>This thesis evaluates a method for system security assessment (MASS), developed at the Swedish Defence Research Agency in Linköping. The evaluation has been carried out with the use of scenarios, consisting of three example networks and several modifications of those. The results from the scenarios are then compared to the expectations of the author and a general discussion is taken about whether or not the results are realistic.</p><p>The evaluation is not meant to be exhaustive, so even if MASS had passed the evaluation with flying colors, it could not have been regarded as proof that the method works as intended. However, this was not the case; even though MASS responded well to the majority of the modifications, some issues indicating possible adjustments or improvements were found and commented on in this report.</p><p>The conclusion from the evaluation is therefore that there are issues to be solved and that the evaluated version of MASS is not ready to be used to evaluate real networks. The method has enough promise not to be discarded, though. With the aid of the issues found in this thesis, it should be developed further, along with the supporting tools, and be re-evaluated.</p>
2
Hooper, Seth T. "Enhancing the enhanced scenario-based method of cost risk analysis." Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/10622.
Full textAbstract:
The current S-Curve method of cost risk analysis for major DON acquisitions projects does not accurately estimate actual cost when the program reaches Full Rate Production. Another, sometimes more effective method of measuring cost risk, is by using the enhanced scenario-based method (eSBM) of risk analysis. The reason that cost estimations from the milestone B costs are inaccurate is that very little, if any, real information about the project is known. eSBM allows managers a less statistically tasking method of determining cost risk for a project while still maintaining the requirements of the Weapons System Acquisitions Reform Act. The key factors in measuring the usefulness of eSBM should be focused on the acquisition strategy being used for the project and the time frame from Milestone B to later Milestones. I presume that different acquisition strategies will yield different levels of success in estimating cost risk for eSBM.
3
Thomas, Victoria Katherine. "A Method for Scenario-based Risk Assessment for Robust Aerospace Systems." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/14536.
Full textAbstract:
A methodology for the conceptual design phase risk assessment of an aerospace system was proposed. The method was designed to examine political, social, and economic risk over a systems lifecycle through the use of future scenarios to bound uncertainty. A decision support framework was developed to allow the user to visualize the differences in performance and economic metrics between design options as well as allowing the user to visualize the effects of mitigating certain risks. A historical proof of concept was developed to test the methodology. The results indicated that the new method will work to examine political, social, and economic risk during conceptual level design, and that this information can be used to aid in design down-selection and decision making. The use of scenario-based analysis as an alternative to traditional probabilistic analysis allowed for better traceability and bounding of uncertainty. Other findings regarding the use of a risk analysis early during concept design and future work are also discussed.
4
KREMER, VALERIE JACOBS. "TOWARDS EXPANDING A METHODOLOGY: UTILIZING SCENARIO PLANNING IN FASHION FORECASTING." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2002. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1022782166.
Full text
5
Siketina, Natalya Hennadievna. "Strategies for sustainable development of machine-building enterprise." Thesis, Mieszko I School of Education and Administration, 2018. http://repository.kpi.kharkov.ua/handle/KhPI-Press/36610.
Full textAbstract:
Enterprises must identify those that affect its activities, identify the acceptable level of risk and how to calculate it, in order to reduce or prevent the risk of making managerial decisions. Since in the process of functioning of the enterprise there is a lagging of the values of the actually obtained indicators from the desired, there is not only the need to respond to changes in the environment of the enterprise, as well as their prediction. Consequently, the management of machine-building enterprises should develop a forecast of possible changes (positive and negative deviations) in the dynamics of the main indicators of its activities
6
Sundmark, Thomas. "Improvement and Scenario-Based Evaluation of the eXtended Method for Assessment of System Security." Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Electrical Engineering, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-16555.
Full textAbstract:
<p>This master’s thesis consists of a scenario-based evaluation of an IT-security assessment method known as the eXtendedMethod for Assessment of System Security (XMASS), as well as an assessment of a real-world network using the softwareimplementation of this method known as the Security AssessmeNT Application (SANTA).This thesis also describes a number of improvements made to the software implementation, some which could also be addedto the method itself. These were performed during the preparation of the assessment but had no effect on the outcome.The evaluation showed that the method and implementation contained a number of flaws in the way the filtering effect ofthe traffic mediators of a network, such as network-based firewalls, was implemented. When it comes to the assessment ofthe real-world network it was seen that the network, given the supplied information regarding the software and hardwaresetup of its entities, appeared to be sufficiently secure to handle the transmission of data at the lowest classification level(Restricted). However, as with almost all security assessments, this does not mean that the network is guaranteed to besecure enough; it just indicates that, given the information specified, the network has the potential of being sufficientlysecure.The main conclusion of this thesis is that the way XMASS and SANTA calculates the effect of filtering traffic mediatorsshould be looked into and improved to increase the usability of the tool. The method can however still be used in its currentstate, but requires the individual(s) performing the assessment to be aware of the drawbacks of the current implementationand thus compensate for these when producing the input for the assessment method.</p>
7
Siketina, Natalya Hennadievna. "Scenario approach to develop machine-building enterprise’s strategy." Thesis, Аналітичний центр "Нова Економіка", 2017. http://repository.kpi.kharkov.ua/handle/KhPI-Press/32893.
Full textAbstract:
During the last years maintenance of competitive activity changed and the that subject of management, that creates competitive potential, finds out potential of any value, generates unique ideas and knowledge that can interest the future consumers of his products. For reduction or prevention of risk of acceptance of administrative decisions the enterprises must find out those that influence on its activity, find out the possible level of risk and methods of his calculation .
8
Jiang, Hongjun. "The development of a scenario independent method for evaluating the evacuation complexity of a building." Thesis, University of Greenwich, 2012. http://gala.gre.ac.uk/8783/.
Full textAbstract:
Over the past two decades, more than 30 evacuation models have been developed to reproduce people’s movement patterns in evacuation. However, evacuation models cannot assess whether one building is better than another in regards to evacuation wayfinding. There exist techniques that attempt to compare different buildings for evacuation complexity. However, these graph measures are primarily used to measure the relative accessibility of different locations in a spatial system and were not generated for the purpose of comparing the complexity of different buildings. Currently only one method exists, Donegan’s method [DT98] [PD96] [DT99], which can be applied to compare building for evacuation ability. However, this technique is severely limited to specific building layouts and only considers connectivity. Taking the Donegan’s method as a first step, this thesis extends this algorithm to obtain a new Distance Graph Method, which considers travel distance as well as being able to be applied to graphs with circuits. Then a further building complexity measures is presented, the Global Complexity (PAT) method. This is shown to be a valid measure which considers additional important factors such as wayfinding time, travel distance and the areas of compartments. The Distance Graph Method and Global Complexity (PAT) methods are based on a room graph representation which does not have the descriptive power to describe the actual routes taken during the wayfinding process. To resolve this drawback a further method is presented which utilises a ‘route-based graph’ that has the ability to represent the real route that an evacuee will take during the wayfinding process. Furthermore the Distance Graph Method and Global Complexity (PAT) methods assume a “worst state” calculation for the nodal information. This means for buildings with more than one exit these methods calculate a global building complexity according to a mathematical formula, which considers all exits separately. To address these problems, the final method, Complexity Time Measure, is presented, which is based around a number of wayfinding behaviour rules over a ‘route-based graph’ representation. This addresses the question: ‘If an occupant is positioned at a random location within a building, on average how long does the occupant need to spend to find an available exit?’ Hence, provides a means to compare complex buildings, with circuits, in relation to evacuation capability.
9
Stix, Volker. "Stochastic branch & bound applying target oriented branch & bound method to optimal scenario tree reduction." Institut für Informationsverarbeitung und Informationswirtschaft, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2002. http://epub.wu.ac.at/1212/1/document.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
In this article a new branch & bound method is described. It uses an artificial target to improve its bounding capabilities. Therefore the new approach is faster compared to the classical one. It is applied to the stochastic problem of optimal scenario tree reduction. The aspects of global optimization are emphasized here. All necessary components for that problem are developed and some experimental results underline the benefits of the new approach. (author's abstract)<br>Series: Working Papers on Information Systems, Information Business and Operations
10
Pradhan, Ligaj. "User Interface Test Automation and its Challenges in an Industrial Scenario." Thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för innovation, design och teknik, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-14126.
Full textAbstract:
The growing demand for UI test automation has triggered the development of many tools. Researchers and developers have been continuously working to further improvise the existing approaches. If we look at GUI test evolution we can observe a clear progress from manual testing towards complete automation. Numerous approaches have been made to automate the GUI testing process. Record and playback tools, key-word driven methodologies, event flow exploration strategies, model based approaches are continuously evolving with higher level of automation. Similarly, new ideas and strategies to make these tests efficient are also emerging. Optimization of this resource consuming activity is another very important aspect in this area. Dependencies between different tests can create deadlock scenarios, while running larger test suites. A concept of Ordered Test Suite can be used to cope with such dependencies. Following the Model Driven Architecture initiative by Object Management Group, a new global trend of Model Driven Engineering is creating a big sensation in the field of model based software development. Using the same principle, studies have also been made to automatically generate tests from models. Behavioral models can be made using the model driven approaches and these models can be analyzed to generate tests automatically. This master thesis addresses different approaches made for Graphical User Interface test automation, some optimization issues and solutions, a case study done at a software company to automate User Interface testing and a model driven approach for automatic test case generation.
11
Ely, Geoffrey Palarz. "A method for dynamic earthquake rupture simulation with applications to a large Southern San Andreas scenario." Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2008. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3303629.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2008.<br>Title from first page of PDF file (viewed June 12, 2008). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Vita. Includes bibliographical references.
12
Coroamǎ, Vlad-Constantin. "Scenario-driven prototyping for ubiquitous computing : a novel method for the assessment of technological challenges and societal implications /." Zürich : ETH, 2008. http://e-collection.ethbib.ethz.ch/show?type=diss&nr=17850.
Full text
13
Alkhairy, Ibrahim H. "Designing and Encoding Scenario-based Expert Elicitation for Large Conditional Probability Tables." Thesis, Griffith University, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/390794.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis focuses on the general problem of asking experts to assess the likelihood of many scenarios, when there is insufficient time to ask about all possible scenarios. The challenge addressed here is one of experimental design: How to choose which scenarios are assessed; How to use that limited data to extrapolate information about the scenarios that remain unasked? In a mathematical sense, this problem can be constructed as a problem of expert elicitation, where experts are asked to quantify conditional probability tables (CPTs). Experts may be relied on, for example in the situation when empirical data is unavailable or limited. CPTs are used widely in statistical modelling to describe probabilistic relationships between an outcome and several factors. I consider two broad situations where CPTs are important components of quantitative models. Firstly experts are often asked to quantify CPTs that form the building blocks of Bayesian Networks (BNs). In one case study, CPTs describe how habitat suitability of feral pigs is related to various environmental factors, such as water quality and food availability. Secondly CPTs may also support a sensitivity analysis for large computer experiments, by examining how some outcome changes, as various factors are changed. Another case study uses CPTs to examine sensitivity to settings, for algorithms available through virtual laboratories, to map the geographic distribution of species such as the koala.
An often-encountered problem is the sheer amount of information asked of the expert: the number of scenarios. Each scenario corresponds to a row of the CPT, and concerns a particular combination of factors, and the likely outcome. Currently most researchers arrange elicitation of CPTs by keeping the number of rows and columns in the CPT to a minimum, so that they need ask experts about no more than twenty or so scenarios. However in some practical problems, CPTs may need to involve more rows and columns, for example involving more than two factors, or factors which can take on more than two or three possible values. Here we propose a new way of choosing scenarios, that underpin the elicitation strategy, by taking advantage of experimental design to: ensure adequate coverage of all scenarios; and to make best use of the scarce resources like the valuable time of the experts. I show that this can be essentially constructed as a problem of how to better design choice of scenarios to elicit from a CPT. The main advantages of these designs is that they explore more of the design space compared to usual design choices like the one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) design that underpins the popular encoding approach embedded in “CPT Calculator”.
In addition this work tailors an under-utilized scenario-based elicitation method to ensure that the expert’s uncertainty was captured, together with their assessments, of the likelihood of each possible outcome. I adopt the more intuitive Outside-In Elicitation method to elicit the expert’s plausible range of assessed values, rather than the more common and reverse-order approach of eliciting their uncertainty around their best guess. Importantly this plausible range of values is more suitable for input into a new approach that was proposed for encoding scenario-based elicitation: Bayesian (rather than a Frequentist) interpretation.
Whilst eliciting some scenarios from large CPTs, another challenge arises from the remaining CPT entries that are not elicited. This thesis shows how to adopt a statistical model to interpolate not only the missing CPT entries but also quantify the uncertainty for each scenario, which is new for these two situations: BNs and sensitivity analyses. For this purpose, I introduce the use of Bayesian generalized linear models (GLMs).
The Bayesian updating framework also enables us to update the results of elicitation, by incorporating empirical data. The idea is to utilise scenarios elicited from experts to constructan informative Bayesian “prior” model. Then the prior information (e.g. about scenarios) is combined with the empirical data (e.g. from computer model runs), to update the posterior estimates of plausible outcomes (affecting all scenarios).
The main findings showed that Bayesian inference suits the small data problem of encoding the expert’s mental model underlying their assessments, allowing uncertainty to vary about each scenario. In addition Bayesian inference provides rich feedback to the modeller and experts on the plausible influence of factors on the response, and whether any information was gained on their interactions. That information could be pivotal to designing the next phase of elicitation about habitat requirements or another phase of computer models. In this way, the Bayesian paradigm naturally supports a sequential approach to gradually accruing information about the issue at hand. As summarised above, the novel statistical methodology presented in this thesis also contributes to computer science. Specifically computation for Bayesian Networks and sensitivity analyses of large computer experiments can be re-designed to be more efficient. Here the expert knowledge is useful to complement the empirical data to inform a more comprehensive analyses.<br>Thesis (PhD Doctorate)<br>Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)<br>School of Info & Comm Tech<br>Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology<br>Full Text
14
Ulin, Samuel. "Digging deep : A data-driven approach to model reduction in a granular bulldozing scenario." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för fysik, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-152498.
Full textAbstract:
The current simulation method for granular dynamics used by the physics engine AGX Dynamics is a nonsmooth variant of the popular Discrete Element Method (DEM). While powerful, there is a need for close to real time simulations of a higher spatial resolution than currently possible. In this thesis a data-driven model reduction approach using machine learning was considered. A data-driven simulation pipeline was presented and partially implemented. The method consists of sampling the velocity and density field of the granular particles and teaching a machine learning algorithm to predict the particles' interaction with a bulldozer blade as well as predicting the time evolution of its velocity field. A procedure for producing training scenarios and training data for the machine learning algorithm was implemented as well as several machine learning algorithms; a linear regressor, a multilayer perceptron and a convolutional neural network. The results showed that the method is promising, however further work will need to show whether or not the pipeline is feasible to implement in a simulation.
15
Sharma, Kritika. "Comparing the Effectiveness of Scenario-Based Learning vs. Traditional Training Method on an Individual’s Call Quality Score: A Case Study." Thesis, North Dakota State University, 2018. https://hdl.handle.net/10365/29227.
Full textAbstract:
This study investigated the effect of Scenario-Based Learning versus the traditional training method used in customer service employee call quality scores. A secondary purpose was to see how Scenario-Based Training method would impact customer service representative’s perceptions of their learning environment. The research questions were generated and tested by interviews, examining the mean scores for call quality in the two methods of training and a t-test was also conducted to see if there was a significance difference between the call quality scores from the use of both training methods. The findings showed that altering the training method from traditional to Scenario-Based Learning/training did increase employee productivity but not by much. The change in quality scores was very small but significant. The study therefore recommended that additional research is conducted to examine possible effects of Scenario- Based Training on other criteria such as retention of content, training-relevant behavior, and organizational impact.
16
Sharma, Kritika. "Comparing the Effectiveness of Scenario-Based Learning vs. Traditional Training Method on an Individual?s Call Quality Score: A Case Study." Thesis, North Dakota State University, 2018. https://hdl.handle.net/10365/29227.
Full textAbstract:
This study investigated the effect of Scenario-Based Learning versus the traditional training method used in customer service employee call quality scores. A secondary purpose was to see how Scenario-Based Training method would impact customer service representative?s perceptions of their learning environment. The research questions were generated and tested by interviews, examining the mean scores for call quality in the two methods of training and a t-test was also conducted to see if there was a significance difference between the call quality scores from the use of both training methods. The findings showed that altering the training method from traditional to Scenario-Based Learning/training did increase employee productivity but not by much. The change in quality scores was very small but significant. The study therefore recommended that additional research is conducted to examine possible effects of Scenario- Based Training on other criteria such as retention of content, training-relevant behavior, and organizational impact.
17
Johansson, Karin, and Frida Ljungek. "ADDRESSING GRID CAPACITY THROUGH TIME SERIES : Deriving a data driven and scenario-based method for long-term planning of local grids." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Solcellsteknik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-413377.
Full textAbstract:
Simultaneously as the societal trends of urbanization, digitalization and electrification of society are moving at a high speed, the Swedish power grid is undergoing a necessary transition to a renewable energy system. Even though there are difficulties on all grid levels, the lack of capacity in some local grids is among the most present problems and originates from the long lead time of grid expansion as well as the challenges within long-term planning of grids. This thesis aims to improve the understanding of future trends’ impact on grid capacity needs. More specifically, a scenario-based and data driven method, with an accompanying model, is derived to target local capacity challenges. The trends identified to pose impact on the future grid capacity were electrification of different sectors, energy efficiency actions, decentralized energy generation, energy storage solutions, flexibility, smart grids, urbanization and climate. The thesis concludes that the impact of a trend on national level is not simply equal to the impact on a local level. Similarly, a long-term increase of the national electricity consumption does not necessarily worsen local capacity challenges. Furthermore, the developed model in this project shows potential to provide more detailed and accurate information about consumption than currently used methods based on standardized power estimations, which could favor more transparent decision making when dimensioning local grids.
18
Gunzenhauser, Jan. "Application of real-time HRV biofeedback in the scenario of meditation practice : Feasibility, usability and medical fidelity." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för medieteknik (ME), 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-45420.
Full textAbstract:
Chronic stress is a prevalent and universally present hazard in modern society. It lowers the quality of life for individuals and significantly con- tributes to unsustainable health care costs. Therefore it is important to have natural and noninvasive ways of controlling stress. One such way is meditation, a technique which has been practiced for over five thousand years to improve stress regulation. Also, proceedings in sensing technologies lead to the discovery of biofeedback as another cost-effective technique for stress assessment and reduction. In continuation of research on real-time reflective human-computer-interfaces, this thesis combines these techniques by exploring the application of electrocardiography sensing technology in a heart rate variability (HRV) biofeedback system for the scenario of medita- tion practice. A proof-of-concept prototype was designed and implemented which quantifies stress and gives feedback on meditation effectiveness. For evaluation, a user study has been performed. Results were analysed in a systematic way to evaluate the feasibility and acceptance of the solution as well as the fidelity of HRV data that was measured during user tests. The prototype was found to be feasible in the context of technology acceptance while the fidelity of data, acquired by an algorithm for time and frequency domain analysis of HRV, was confirmed. A final conclusion is that the reflective aspect of the implemented real-time biofeedback system helps to improve regulatory capacity and thus lowers stress in individuals.
19
Dai, Xu. "Extended travelling fire method framework with an OpenSees-based integrated tool SIFBuilder." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/33088.
Full textAbstract:
Many studies of the fire induced thermal and structural behaviour in large compartments, carried out over the past two decades, show a great deal of non-uniformity, unlike the homogeneous compartment temperature assumption in the current fire safety engineering practice. Furthermore, some large compartment fires may burn locally and they tend to move across entire floor plates over a period of time as the fuel is consumed. This kind of fire scenario is beginning to be idealized as 'travelling fires' in the context of performance‐based structural and fire safety engineering. However, the previous research of travelling fires still relies on highly simplified travelling fire models (i.e. Clifton's model and Rein's model); and no equivalent numerical tools can perform such simulations, which involves analysis of realistic fire, heat transfer and thermo-mechanical response in one single software package with an automatic coupled manner. Both of these hinder the advance of the research on performance‐based structural fire engineering. The author develops an extended travelling fire method (ETFM) framework and an integrated comprehensive tool with high computational expediency in this research, to address the above‐mentioned issues. The experiments conducted for characterizing travelling fires over the past two decades are reviewed, in conjunction with the current available travelling fire models. It is found that no performed travelling fire experiment records both the structural response and the mass loss rate of the fuel (to estimate the fire heat release rate) in a single test, which further implies closer collaboration between the structural and the fire engineers' teams are needed, especially for the travelling fire research topic. In addition, an overview of the development of OpenSees software framework for modelling structures in fire is presented, addressing its theoretical background, fundamental assumptions, and inherent limitations. After a decade of development, OpenSees has modules including fire, heat transfer, and thermo‐mechanical analysis. Meanwhile, it is one of the few structural fire modelling software which is open source and free to the entire community, allowing interested researchers to use and contribute with no expense. An OpenSees‐based integrated tool called SIFBuilder is developed by the author and co‐workers, which can perform fire modelling, heat transfer analysis, and thermo-mechanical analysis in one single software with an automatic coupled manner. This manner would facilitate structural engineers to apply fire loading on their design structures like other mechanical loading types (e.g. seismic loading, gravity loading, etc.), without transferring the fire and heat transfer modelling results to each structural element manually and further assemble them to the entire structure. This feature would largely free the structural engineers' efforts to focus on the structural response for performance-based design under different fire scenarios, without investigating the modelling details of fire and heat transfer analysis. Moreover, the efficiency due to this automatic coupled manner would become more superior, for modelling larger structures under more realistic fire scenarios (e.g. travelling fires). This advantage has been confirmed by the studies carried out in this research, including 29 travelling fire scenarios containing total number of 696 heat transfer analysis for the structural members, which were undertaken at very modest computational costs. In addition, a set of benchmark problems for verification and validation of OpenSees/SIFBuilder are investigated, which demonstrates good agreement against analytical solutions, ABAQUS, SAFIR, and the experimental data. These benchmark problems can also be used for interested researchers to verify their own numerical or analytical models for other purposes, and can be also used as an induction guide of OpenSees/SIFBuilder. Significantly, an extended travelling fire method (ETFM) framework is put forward in this research, which can predict the fire severity considering a travelling fire concept with an upper bound. This framework considers the energy and mass conservation, rather than simply forcing other independent models to 'travel' in the compartment (i.e. modified parametric fire curves in Clifton's model, 800°C‐1200°C temperature block and the Alpert's ceiling jet in Rein's model). It is developed based on combining Hasemi's localized fire model for the fire plume, and a simple smoke layer calculation by utilising the FIRM zone model for the areas of the compartment away from the fire. Different from mainly investigating the thermal impact due to various ratios of the fire size to the compartment size (e.g. 5%, 10%, 25%, 75%, etc.), as in Rein's model, this research investigates the travelling fire thermal impact through explicit representation of the various fire spread rates and fuel load densities, which are the key input parameters in the ETFM framework. To represent the far field thermal exposures, two zone models (i.e. ASET zone model & FIRM zone model) and the ETFM framework are implemented in SIFBuilder, in order to provide the community a 'vehicle' to try, test, and further improve this ETFM framework, and also the SIFBuilder itself. It is found that for 'slow' travelling fires (i.e. low fire spread rates), the near‐field fire plume brings more dominant thermal impact compared with the impact from far‐field smoke. In contrast, for 'fast' travelling fires (i.e. high fire spread rates), the far‐field smoke brings more dominant thermal impact. Furthermore, the through depth thermal gradients due to different travelling fire scenarios were explored, especially with regards to the 'thermal gradient reversal' due to the near‐field fire plume approaching and leaving the design structural member. This 'thermal gradient reversal' would fundamentally reverse the thermally‐induced bending moment from hogging to sagging. The modelling results suggest that the peak thermal gradient due to near‐field approaching is more sensitive to the fuel load density than fire spread rate, where larger peak values are captured with lower fuel load densities. Moreover, the reverse peak thermal gradient due to near‐field leaving is also sensitive to the fuel load density rather than the fire spread rate, but this reverse peak value is inversely proportional to the fuel load densities. Finally, the key assumptions of the ETFM framework are rationalised and its limitations are emphasized. Design instructions with relevant information which can be readily used by the structural fire engineers for the ETFM framework are also included. Hence more optimised and robust structural design under such fire threat can be generated and guaranteed, where we believe these efforts will advance the performance‐based structural and fire safety engineering.
20
Ronstad, David. "A Comparison between two different Methods to Verify Fire Safety Design in Buildings." Thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, Byggkonstruktion och brand, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-62258.
Full textAbstract:
In today’s Nordic construction industry, it is difficult for new and innovative building solutions to be introduced due to prescriptive and inflexible regulations. Trading products and services cross-border is something that could loosen the tough market, but this is not possible due to the lack of common international frameworks that is performance based with the possibility to perform fire safety engineering. This is something that the Nordic Innovation project group called Fire Safety Engineering for Innovative and Sustainable Building Solutions wants to change. By introducing a new probabilistic method to verify fire safety in buildings, with the intention to become a Nordic standard, so will hopefully parts of these problems be resolved. The fourth work package of the project includes field testing of the new method which this thesis is a part of. The idea is to asses and improve the new probabilistic approach by comparing it to an existing non-probabilistic method and introduce ameliorating recommendations. Comparison of the probabilistic method is performed against a Swedish verification process that’s based on the General recommendations on analytical design of fire safety strategy (BBRAD) by verifying fire safety in a car park, that is located below an office building, with both verification methods. The two performance-based analyses treat deviations from a prescriptive solution, performed with the Boverket’s Building Regulations (BBR), and the results of these verifications is compared. The requirements that is verified are; escape in event of fire, protection against the outbreak of fire, protection against the development and spread of fire and smoke in buildings, protection against spread of fire between buildings, possibility of rescue responses and ensuring fire resistance in the structural members. Fire safety designs and approaches for treatment of the deviations are compared and analysed which concludes in the improvement recommendation that’s been presented. Questions that has been answered during the work process is: How do the methods treat the possibility of a fire safety design without sprinkler? What is the main difference between the two verification methods? Which improvements could be done to the new Probabilistic method? The recommendations of improvement that has been presented is based on the work process of the probabilistic approach and the comparison with the Swedish verification process. Development of the following areas is advocated: Treatment of critical levels for evacuation scenarios Form a common Nordic statistical database Improved guidance of how to complete the validation analysis The thesis does not include all parts that’s required in a fire safety design but will merely focus on the deviations of the pre-accepted solution. The verification is only performed on the car park, i.e. the office part of the building is not included.<br>I dagens nordiska byggbransch är det svårt för nya och innovativa byggnadslösningar att införas på grund av de preskriptiva och fyrkantiga regelverk som finns. Handel av produkter och tjänster över gränserna är något som kan luckra upp den tuffa marknaden, men det är svårt på grund av bristen utav gemensamma internationella regelverk som är funktionsbaserade med möjlighet till fire safety engeinnering. Det är något som ett nordiskt innovationsprojekt kallat Fire Safety Engineering for Innovative and Sustainable Building Solutions vill förändra. Genom att införa en ny probabilistisk metod för att verifiera brandsäkerheten i byggnader, med avsikten att skapa en nordisk standard, kan förhoppningsvis delar av dessa problem lösas. Det fjärde arbetspaketet inom projektet består av att testa den nya metoden, vilket denna avhandling är en del av. Tanken är att bedöma och ta fram förbättringsförslag till den nya probabilistiska metoden genom att jämföra den med en befintlig scenariobaserad metod och presentera förbättringsrekommendationer. Jämförelse av probabilistiska metoden utförs mot en svensk verifieringsprocess som baseras på Boverkets allmänna råd om analytisk dimensionering av byggnaders brandskydd (BBRAD) genom att verifiera brandsäkerheten i ett parkeringsgarage, som ligger under en kontorsbyggnad, med båda verifieringsmetoderna. De två funktionsbaserade analyserna behandlar avvikelser från en förenklad dimensionering, som är utförd enligt Boverkets Byggregler (BBR), och resultaten av dessa verifikationer jämförs. De krav som verifieras är; utrymning i händelse av brand, skydd mot uppkomst av brand, skydd mot utveckling och spridning av brand och rök i byggnader, skydd mot brandspridning mellan byggnader, möjlighet till räddningsinsats och att säkerställa bärförmåga vid brand. Brandskyddets utformning och metodernas behandling av avvikelserna jämförs och analyseras vilket konkluderar i de rekommendationer för förbättring som presenteras. Frågor som har besvarats under arbetsprocessen är: Hur behandlar metoderna möjligheten att dimensionera brandsäkerheten utan sprinklersystem? Vad är den stora skillnaden mellan de två verifieringsmetoderna? Vilka förbättringar kan göras på den nya probabilistiska metoden? Rekommendationerna till förbättring som har tagits fram är baserad på arbetsprocessen i den probabilistiska metoden och jämförelsen med den svenska verifieringsprocessen. Utveckling av följande områden förespråkas: Behandling av kritiska nivåer i utrymningsscenarion Uppställning av en gemensam statistiskdatabas för de nordiska länderna Förbättrad förklaring om hur man utför valideringarna av analysen Avhandlingen omfattar inte alla delar som behövs vid bandskyddsprojektering utan fokusera endast på avvikelserna från den förenklade dimensioneringen. Verifikationen är endast utförd på parkeringsgaraget, det vill säga kontorsdelen av byggnaden behandlas inte.<br>Fire Safety Engineering for Innovative and Sustainable Building Solutions
21
Endrikat, Jan, Franziska Schlage, and Julia Hillmann. "Ökonomische und ökologische Bewertung der Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf die Siedlungsentwässerung." Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2011. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-38553.
Full textAbstract:
In recent publications it is questioned whether the existing wastewater management system is suitable for future requirements. The today’s wastewater infrastructure is a complex socio-technical system characterized by centralization, very long life-spans and sunk costs. Thus, it appears questionable whether this system is suitable against the background of a context of dynamic conditions as demographic change, climate change and the emerging requirements in terms of sustainability.
This paper adds a contribution to the growing body of literature on prospective waste water management systems. Focusing on long term developments this paper aims to build up scenario-modules towards the year 2050. Our approach combines three methodologies which appear to be suitable with each other, namely the method of explorative scenario development, a modified Delphi method and content analysis.
As the waste water sector is a very complex system with various impact factors which are characterized by high dynamics and strong uncertainty the scenario technique appears as an appropriate method. Within the scenario building process a modified Delphi method had been applied to generate the input for the scenario-modules. Key drivers and uncertainties in the field of waste water management were identified by interviewing 16 experts who are scientists or practitioners in the waste water sector. The interviews had been transliterated and then evaluated by using the content analysis approach. Afterwards scenario-modules were derived which provide a basis for further procedure towards complete scenarios for future wastewater infrastructure.
22
Kůdela, Jakub. "Stochastická optimalizace v programu AIMMS." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta strojního inženýrství, 2014. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-231064.
Full textAbstract:
Tato diplomová práce uvádí základní poznatky matematického a především stochastického programování. Navíc se zabývá použitím softwaru AIMMS při vytváření a řešení optimalizačních problémů. Naším hlavním cílem je naprogramovat v softwaru AIMMS několik metod řešení problémů stochastického programování a ukázat jejich použití a užitečnost na vybraných problémech. Jedním z problémů, který jsme si zvolili, je model spalovny. Všechny AIMMS programy, které v našem textu použijeme a popíšeme, a jejich zdrojové kódy budou přiloženy v dodatcích.
23
Kwon, Saerom. "Study on tritium production property by D-T and D-D neutrons of LiPb blanket for fusion reactor." Kyoto University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/188826.
Full text
24
Janhager, Jenny. "User Consideration in Early Stages of Product Development : Theories and Methods." Doctoral thesis, Stockholm : Department of Machine Design, Royal Institute of Technology [Institutionen för maskinkonstruktion, Kungl. Tekniska högskolan], 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-174.
Full text
25
Vaišnoras, Tomas. "Eenergetinio saugumo scenarijai: Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Lenkijos atvejis." Master's thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2010. http://vddb.laba.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2010~D_20100616_111730-69988.
Full textAbstract:
Susidomėjimas ateities studijomis kaip moksline veikla ypač padidėjo pastaraisiais metais, tai paskatino poreikis prognozuoti galimus socialinius, ekonominius, ekologinius ar politinius pokyčius sparčiai besivystančiame pasaulyje. Socialiniuose bei politikos moksluose prognostiniai metodai ilgą laiką buvo laikomi nepatikimais, tačiau, pastaruoju metu, suvokdami prognozavimą kaip neatsiejamą strateginio planavimo dalį politinių procesų tyrėjai vis dažniau taiko scenarijų konstravimo metodą, mėgindami atrasti galimus ateities įvykių raidos variantus.
Patikimas energijos išteklių tiekimas yra vienas pagrindinių valstybės saugumo garantų. Ateities energetikos sektoriaus vystymasis priklauso nuo daugelio kintamųjų, tokių kaip augantis energijos poreikis, aplinkosaugos reikalavimai, technologinis progresas, liberalizavimo procesai ir t.t., todėl norint tinkamai pasiruošti galimiems pokyčiams reikalingas nuoseklus ir racionalus politinis planavimas. Labai svarbu įvertinti būsimus iššūkius, galimybes bei tikėtinas raidos kryptis, o scenarijų kūrimas yra tinkamiausias metodinis įrankis šiems tikslams pasiekti.
Pagrindinis darbo tikslas yra sukonstruoti galimus Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Lenkijos energetinio saugumo scenarijus. Norint pasiekti šį tikslą pirmiausiai reikia apsibrėžti energetinio saugumo sąvoką bei scenarijų konstravimo metodą. Svarbu apžvelgti visų trijų valstybių energetikos sektorius, jų stipriąsias ir silpnąsias puses. Kadangi Lietuva, Latvija ir Lenkija yra Europos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]<br>Over the last decade policy analysts around the world demonstrate a growing interest in future studies. It is influenced by the need to foresee economic, social or political changes in rapidly developing world. For a long time future studies in political and social sciences were considered unreliable. However, in the recent years, foresight became an important part of strategic planning, thus scenario building method is more and more often used by policy analysts.
Uninterrupted and reliable energy supply is one of the main pillars of country’s national security. Future development of the energy sector depends on many variables such as the growing energy demand, the technological development, the liberalization of the energy markets etc. Therefore, if countries want to prepare properly for possible changes, consistent and rational political planning is needed. It is very important to assess the future challenges, possibilities and the most likely trends of development, whereas scenario building is the most suitable method for reaching these objectives.
The main objective of this research paper is to build possible energy security scenarios for Lithuania, Latvia and Poland. First of all, to achieve this objective one needs to define energy security and scenario building method. It is also important to review the energy sector of each of the three countries, in order to find strengths, weaknesses and main threats to their security. The EU common energy policy has a direct... [to full text]
26
ASSUMMA, VANESSA. "Assessing the Resilience of Socio-Ecological Systems to Shape Scenarios of Territorial Transformation." Doctoral thesis, Politecnico di Torino, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/11583/2903476.
Full text
27
Limousin, Philippe. "Contribution à la scénarisation pédagogique d’exercices de crise." Thesis, Lyon, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017LYSEM033/document.
Full textAbstract:
Les crises naturelles ou anthropiques récentes montrent la nécessité de former les gestionnaires de crises à réagir rapidement, sous stress et dans une position d’inconfort. Ce mémoire traite de la scénarisation des exercices de crise pour des exercices pratiques (fonctionnels, grandeur réelle et sur simulateur) impliquant une cellule de crise stratégique. L’état de l’art des méthodes de scénarisation a montré des lacunes dans l’accompagnement des scénaristes pour créer des scénarios pédagogiques et représentatifs d’une crise. Fort de ce constat, les travaux de recherche se sont orientés sur l’élaboration d’une méthode permettant de solliciter les compétences de gestion de crise à travers les scénarios d’exercices de crise. Pour reproduire la dynamique d’une crise dans les scénarios créés, une grille de lecture basée sur des caractéristiques spécifiques aux situations de crise et liée aux types de stimuli injectables dans un scénario a été appliquée à six crises passées. Parallèlement, l’étude des compétences des gestionnaires de crise a permis de créer une base de données d’objectifs de formation couplée aux stimuli.In fine, la méthodologie développe une démarche pas à pas permettant au scénariste de créer et positionner dans le scénario les stimuli nécessaires à la sollicitation des compétences à mobiliser pour différents profils de participants.Les scénarios sont ensuite vérifiés à travers des critères validant la scénarisation effectuée et le caractère pédagogique du scénario.La méthode de scénarisation a été testée pour un exercice fonctionnel et appliquée par plusieurs catégories de scénaristes qui ont validé son caractère opérationnel<br>Recent major crises show the necessity to train crisis managers to react quickly, under stress and in an uncomfortable position. This thesis deals with the scripting of crisis exercises for practical exercises (functional, large scale and simulator) involving strategic crisis cell. The art state of scriptwriting methods has shown shortcomings in accompanying scriptwriters to create pedagogical scenarios representative of a crisis. This work leads to the creation of a method that calls crisis management skills through crisis exercise scenarios. On the basis of this analysis, research has oriented on developing a method to solicit crisis management skills through crisis scenarios. To reproduce the crisis dynamic in created scenarios, a reading grid based on specific characteristics of crisis situations and related to the types of injectable stimuli in a scenario has been applied to six past crises. At the same time, the study of crisis managers skills allow us to create a database of training objectives coupled with stimuli.Finally, the methodology develops a step-by-step approach. It creates and situates the stimuli in the scenario. This original approach inserts these stimuli to solicit needed skills for several profiles of participants.Then, the scenarios are verified using criteria that validate the scriptwriting and the pedagogical nature of the scenario.The scriptwriting method was tested through a functional exercise and applied by several categories of scriptwriters (novice or crisis management experts) which validated its operational nature
28
Correia, Raquel Sequeira. "Methods of capital allocation in a Solvency II environment." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/14722.
Full textAbstract:
Mestrado em Actuarial Science<br>De acordo com a regulamentação de Solvência II, o SCR é geralmente calculado usando uma fórmula padrão que considera os riscos que uma seguradora enfrenta. Devido à agregação dos diferentes riscos, são originados benefícios de diversificação e um valor de SCR total menor que a soma dos requisitos de capital de cada risco. Para ter em conta estes benefícios de diversificação, o capital total deve ser alocado de volta aos níveis mais baixos de risco, aplicando um método apropriado de alocação de capital. Este relatório é resultado de um estágio curricular que decorreu na EY. Um dos objetivos foi encontrar o método mais apropriado para realizar a alocação do SCR de uma empresa de seguros. Foram estudados cinco métodos de alocação, Proporcional, Variância-Covariância, Merton e Perold, Shapley e Euler. Os métodos são comparados teoricamente, analisando as suas respetivas propriedades e, com base em vários estudos presentes na literatura, conclui-se que o método de Euler é o mais apropriado. Este trabalho contribui para uma melhor compreensão dos métodos de alocação de capital e permite demonstrar como alocar o SCR. Contribui também para mostrar como construir o SES para fins do cálculo do ajustamento LAC DT. Visto que esta tarefa foi uma das dificuldades referidas no QIS 5, este trabalho pode servir como base literária, sendo útil para superar essas dificuldades.<br>Under Solvency II regulation the SCR is mainly calculated using a standard formula which considers the risks that an insurer faces. Due to this aggregation of risks, a diversification benefit is achieved and the global SCR is smaller than the sum of the capital requirements of each risk. To take these diversification benefits into account the total capital should be allocated back to the lower levels of risk by applying a proper method of capital allocation. This report is the result of a curricular internship that took place at EY. One of the goals was to find the most appropriate method to perform a capital allocation of the SCR of an insurance company. Five methods of allocation were studied, Proportional, Variance-Covariance, Merton and Perold, Shapley and Euler. The methods were compared theoretically by analyzing their respective properties, and based on several studies in the literature it is concluded that the Euler method is the most appropriate to apply. This report contributes to a better understanding of capital allocation methods and allows to demonstrate how to allocate the SCR. It also contributes to show how to construct the SES for the purpose of the calculation of the adjustment of LAC DT. Since this task was one of the difficulties enumerated in the Fifth Quantitative Impact Study (QIS 5), this work can serve as a literary base, being useful to overcome these difficulties.<br>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
29
Kremer, Stefan [Verfasser], P. [Akademischer Betreuer] Wölfle, and R. [Akademischer Betreuer] Frésard. "Thermal and Electric Properties of the Delafossites : The Apparent Fermi Liquid Scenario and the Extension of the Density Matrix Renormalization Group Method to Finite Temperatures / Stefan Kremer. Betreuer: P. Wölfle ; R. Frésard." Karlsruhe : KIT-Bibliothek, 2011. http://d-nb.info/101481779X/34.
Full text
30
Boutahar, Jaouad. "Méthodes de réduction et de propagation d'incertitudes : application à un mùodèle de Chimie-Transport pour la modélisation et la stimulation des impacts." Marne-la-vallée, ENPC, 2004. https://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00007557.
Full textAbstract:
Dans une modélisation intégrée des impacts, l'objectif est de tester plusieurs scénarios d'entrées de modèle et/ ou d'identifier l'effet de l'incertitude des entrées sur les sorties de modèle. Dans les deux cas, un grand nombre de simulations de modèle sont nécessaires. Cela reste bien évidemment infaisable avec un modèle de Chimie-Transport à cause du temps CPU demandé. Pour surmonter cette difficulté, deux approches ont été étudiées dans cette thèse. La première consiste à construire un modèle réduit. Deux techniques ont été utilisées : la première est la méthode POD (Proper Orthogonal Decomposition) liée au comportement statistique du système. La seconde méthode est une méthode efficace de prétabulation fondée sur la troncature d'un développement multivariables de la relation Entrées/ sorties associé au modèle. La seconde est relative à la réduction du nombre de simulations demandé par la méthode Monte-Carlo classique de propagation d'incertitude. La technique utilisée ici est basée sur une représentation d'une sortie de modèle incertaine comme un développement de polynômes orthonormaux de variables d'entrées. Un autre point clé dans la modélisation intégrée d'impacts est de développer des stratégies de réduction des émissions en calculant des matrices de transfert sur plusieurs années de simulation. Une méthode efficace de calcul de ces matrices a été ainsi développée, notamment en définissant des scénarios "chimiquement" représentatifs. L'ensemble de ces méthodes a été appliqué au modèle POLAIR3D, modèle de Chimie-Transport développé dans le cadre de cette thèse
31
Von, der Gracht Heiko A. Jahns Christopher Darkow Inga-Lena. "The future of logistics : scenarios for 2025 /." Wiesbaden : Gabler, 2008. http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&doc_number=016522983&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA.
Full text
32
Von, der Gracht Heiko A. Jahns Christopher. "The future of logistics scenarios for 2025 /." Wiesbaden : Gabler, 2008. http://site.ebrary.com/id/10245906.
Full text
33
Au, Oliver T. S. "Requirements specification using concrete scenarios." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2009. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/6642.
Full textAbstract:
The precision of formal specifications allows us to prove program correctness. Even if formal methods are not used throughout the software project, formalisation improves our understanding of the problem. Formal specifications are amenable to automated analysis and consistency checking. However using them is challenging. Customers do not understand formal notations. Specifiers have difficulty tackling large problems. Once systems are built, formal specifications quickly become outdated during software maintenance. A method of developing formal specifications using concrete scenarios is proposed to tackle the disadvantages just mentioned. A concrete scenario describes system behaviour with successive steps. The pre- and post-states of scenario steps are expressed with actual data rather than variables. Concrete scenarios are expressed in a natural language or formal notation. They increase customer involvement in the creation of formal specifications. Scenarios may be ranked by priorities allowing specifiers to focus on a small part of the system. Formal specifications are constructed incrementally. New requirements are also captured in concrete scenarios which guide the modification of formal specifications. On one hand, concrete scenarios assist the creation and maintenance of formal specifications. On the other hand, they facilitate program correctness proofs without using conventional formal specifications. This is achieved by adding implementation details to customer scenarios. The resulting developer scenarios, encapsulating decisions of data structures and algorithms, are generalised to operation schemas. With the implementation details, the schemas written in formal notations are programs rather than specifications.
34
Bushehri, Yousef. "Application of the functional scenarios method on alternative settings." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/55066.
Full textAbstract:
Goals of this study are to set up the frame-work for analyzing residential buildings using the functional scenarios method and to tests the applicability of the method on large scale projects. The metrics for the analysis are based on guidelines for designing spaces that promote healthy aging. In addition, the study was providing an opportunity to developing and refined the method.
The result of the analysis determines that the functional scenarios method is applicable to large scale buildings as effectively as smalls scale buildings; design configurations can be extracted from the results of the analysis to inform future designs. The limitations of the analysis are due to the available resources. Opportunities for continued work include 1) developing standard ways of representing the results of the analysis; and 2) developing a systematic approach for extracting design configurations based on the research questions asked.
35
Löhndorf, Nils. "An empirical analysis of scenario generation methods for stochastic optimization." Elsevier, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2016.05.021.
Full textAbstract:
This work presents an empirical analysis of popular scenario generation methods for stochastic optimization, including quasi-Monte Carlo, moment matching, and methods based on probability metrics, as well as a new method referred to as Voronoi cell sampling. Solution quality is assessed by measuring the error that arises from using scenarios to solve a multi-dimensional newsvendor problem, for which analytical solutions are available. In addition to the expected value, the work also studies scenario quality when minimizing the expected shortfall using the conditional value-at-risk. To quickly solve problems with millions of random parameters, a reformulation of the risk-averse newsvendor problem is proposed which can be solved via Benders decomposition. The empirical analysis identifies Voronoi cell sampling as the method that provides the lowest errors, with particularly good results for heavy-tailed distributions. A controversial finding concerns evidence for the ineffectiveness of widely used methods based on minimizing probability metrics under high-dimensional randomness.
36
Star, Jonathan, Erika L. Rowland, Mary E. Black, et al. "Supporting adaptation decisions through scenario planning: Enabling the effective use of multiple methods." ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/622731.
Full textAbstract:
Scenario planning is a technique used to inform decision-making under uncertainty, and is increasingly applied in the field of climate change adaptation and policy. This paper describes applications that combine previously distinct scenario methods in new and innovative ways. It draws on numerous recent independent case studies to illustrate emerging practices, such as far stronger connections between researcher-driven and participatory approaches and cycling between exploratory and normative perspectives. The paper concludes with a call for greater support for, and collaboration among, practitioners with the argument that mixed methods are most effective for decision-making in the context of climate change challenges.
37
Guarino, de Vasconcelos Luis Eduardo, André Yoshimi Kusumoto, Nelson Paiva Oliveira Leite, and Cristina Moniz Araújo Lopes. "Using Agile Methods for Software Development in R&D Scenario." International Foundation for Telemetering, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/596431.
Full textAbstract:
ITC/USA 2015 Conference Proceedings / The Fifty-First Annual International Telemetering Conference and Technical Exhibition / October 26-29, 2015 / Bally's Hotel & Convention Center, Las Vegas, NV<br>Due to the quick change of business processes in organizations, software needs to adapt quickly to meet new requirements by implementing new business rules. In Research and Development (R&D) scenario, the research is highly non-linear and changes are inevitable. In this context, it is known that traditional methodologies (e.g. waterfall) may lead to the detection of failures late, increase the time and cost of development and maintenance of software. On the other hand, agile methodologies are based on Test- Driven Development (TDD), maintain the technical debt under control, maximize the Return on Investment and reduce the risks for customers and companies. In this paper, we show the use of Scrum and TDD in the development of an experimental tool that aims to make the calibration in real time of the rudder of a fighter aircraft. The preliminary results allowed to increase the coverage testing of the software and hence the quality of the tool.
38
Crous, Duncan. "Biorefineries : a method to compare process alternatives using different economic scenarios." Diss., University of Pretoria, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/24528.
Full textAbstract:
A general overview on biorefineries and cost estimation methods is presented to provide background knowledge needed to create software focused on comparing different biorefinery configurations. The software is implemented in Microsoft Excel 2003 and can account for the capital cost, operating cost and utility requirements of different process operations based on their operating scale. To facilitate consistency in estimating capital costs an equipment factored capital cost method is implemented based on the Guthrie method. Factors used determine the capital cost includes: <ul> <li> purchased equipment cost</li><li> paterials of construction</li><li> operating pressure</li><li> time index factors</li> </ul> The program also includes a custom search algorithm that cycles through the processes to give candidates, based on feasibility equations, of single product focused configurations that can be further customised for analysis. With the program’s focus on comparing alternatives hypothetical processes are created that give the same product but use different possessing routes and starting materials. The solver was used to calculate the candidate configurations and then manually configured to evaluate energy production from side products. The program’s functionality and purpose was then shown by altering costs to give results for a different techno-economic scenario.<br>Dissertation (MEng)--University of Pretoria, 2011.<br>Chemical Engineering<br>unrestricted
39
Šabartová, Zuzana. "Prostorová dekompozice úloh stochastického programování s omezeními ve tvaru diferenciálních rovnic." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta strojního inženýrství, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-230116.
Full textAbstract:
Rozsáhlá třída inženýrských optimalizačních úloh vede na modely s omezeními ve tvaru obyčejných nebo parciálních diferenciálních rovnic (ODR nebo PDR). Protože diferenciálních rovnice je možné řešit analyticky jen v nejjednodušších případech, bylo k řešení použito numerických metod založených na diskretizaci oblasti. Zvolili jsme metodu konečných prvků, která umožňuje převod omezení ve tvaru diferenciálních rovnic na omezení ve tvaru soustavy lineárních rovnic. Reálné problémy jsou často velmi rozsáhlé a přesahují dostupnou výpočetní kapacitu. Výpočetní čas lze snížit pomocí progressive hedging algoritmu (PHA), který umožňuje paralelní implementaci. PHA je efektivní scénářová dekompoziční metoda pro řešení scénářových stochastických úloh. Modifikovaný PHA byl využit pro původní přístup prostorové dekompozice. Aproximace diferenciálních rovnic v modelu problému je dosaženo pomocí diskretizace oblasti. Diskretizace je dále využita pro prostorovou dekompozici modelu. Algoritmus prostorové dekompozice se skládá z několika hlavních kroků: vyřešení problému s hrubou diskretizací, rozdělení oblasti problému do překrývajících se částí a iterační řešení pomocí PHA s jemnější diskretizací s využitím hodnot z hrubé diskretizace jako okrajových podmínek. Prostorová dekompozice byla aplikována na základní testovací problém z oboru stavebního inženýrství, který se zabývá návrhem rozměrů průřezu nosníku. Algoritmus byl implementován v softwaru GAMS. Získané výsledky jsou zhodnoceny vzhledem k výpočetní náročnosti a délce překrytí.
40
Mathur, Prashant. "Adaptation Methods for Statistical Machine Translation In Business Scenarios." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Trento, 2017. https://hdl.handle.net/11572/368157.
Full textAbstract:
Adaptation methods for phrase-based statistical Machine Translation (MT) have been explored in the literature under different paradigms, such as domain adaptation and topic adaptation, and most of the times in rather ideal experimental set-ups. We address this subject in three real-life industrial use cases, in which MT has to quickly adapt in accordance with specific operating conditions.
In particular, we explore domain adaptation when no in-domain parallel data are available, which is a typical use case of MT service providers. Then, we investigate topic adaptation for the translation of short highly ambiguous item titles in an e-commerce setting.
Finally, we consider the Computer Assisted Translation (CAT) scenario, in which MT interacts with a human translator by providing them with translation drafts and by adapting from their post-editions. In this scenario, we investigate online adaptation from human post-editions, respectively, in a single-user setting and in a multi-user setting, in which multiple translators are working on different parts of the same document. In addition, for the single-user case we also discuss the optimisation of the hyper-parameters of the employed online adaptation method.
41
Mathur, Prashant. "Adaptation Methods for Statistical Machine Translation In Business Scenarios." Doctoral thesis, University of Trento, 2017. http://eprints-phd.biblio.unitn.it/1992/1/PrashantThesis-uploaded.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
Adaptation methods for phrase-based statistical Machine Translation (MT) have been explored in the literature under different paradigms, such as domain adaptation and topic adaptation, and most of the times in rather ideal experimental set-ups. We address this subject in three real-life industrial use cases, in which MT has to quickly adapt in accordance with specific operating conditions.
In particular, we explore domain adaptation when no in-domain parallel data are available, which is a typical use case of MT service providers. Then, we investigate topic adaptation for the translation of short highly ambiguous item titles in an e-commerce setting.
Finally, we consider the Computer Assisted Translation (CAT) scenario, in which MT interacts with a human translator by providing them with translation drafts and by adapting from their post-editions. In this scenario, we investigate online adaptation from human post-editions, respectively, in a single-user setting and in a multi-user setting, in which multiple translators are working on different parts of the same document. In addition, for the single-user case we also discuss the optimisation of the hyper-parameters of the employed online adaptation method.
42
Postma, Maarten Jacobus. "Assessment of the economic impact of aids at national and multi-national level development of a scenario-analytic approach to support health-care policy /." [Maastricht : Maastricht : Universiteit Maastricht] ; University Library, Maastricht University [Host], 1998. http://arno.unimaas.nl/show.cgi?fid=8426.
Full text
43
Юрьева, Е. С., та E. S. Yureva. "Подходы к стратегическому планированию в высшем образовании : магистерская диссертация". Master's thesis, б. и, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10995/100865.
Full textAbstract:
В работе рассматривается применение стратегического планирования в образовании, его методы, этапы и технологии. В первой части работы рассматривается понятие «стратегическое планирование», его инструменты и этапы. Также изучаются методы и технологии стратегического планирования, говорится о значении и реализации стратегического планирования в образовании. Во второй части работы изучается и анализируется опыт России в стратегическом планировании в высшем образовании. Рассматриваются стратегии развития высшего образования, как в целом, так и на примере НИУ ВШЭ и КФУ – вузов участников программы 5-100, проводится сравнительный анализ стратегических планов данных вузов. Пользуясь результатами данного исследования, можно изучить и проанализировать картину условий развития высшего образования в РФ, выявить проблемы или преимущества использования технологий стратегического планирования в высшем образовании. Опыт применения стратегического планирования в высшем образовании может служить основой для поиска теоретических решений многих существующих проблем в высшем образовании России.<br>The paper examines the use of strategic planning in education, its methods, stages and technologies. The first part of the work examines the concept of "strategic planning", its tools and stages. Methods and technologies of strategic planning are also studied; the importance and implementation of strategic planning in education are discussed. The second part of the work examines and analyzes Russia's experience in strategic planning in higher education. Strategies for the development of higher education are considered, both in general and on the example of the HSE and KFU - universities participating in the 5-100 program, a comparative analysis of the strategic plans of these universities is carried out. Using the results of this study, one can study and analyze the picture of the conditions for the development of higher education in the Russian Federation, identify problems or advantages of using strategic planning technologies in higher education. The experience of using strategic planning in higher education can serve as a basis for finding theoretical solutions to many existing problems in higher education in Russia.
44
Derrick, Deborah Chippington. "Models, methods and algorithms for supply chain planning." Thesis, Brunel University, 2011. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/6024.
Full textAbstract:
An outline of supply chains and differences in the problem types is given. The motivation for a generic framework is discussed and explored. A conceptual model is presented along with it application to real world situations; and from this a database model is developed. A MIP and CP implementations are presented; along with alternative formulation which can be use to solve the problems. A local search solution algorithm is presented and shown to have significant benefits. Problem instances are presented which are used to validate the generic models, including a large manufacture and distribution problem. This larger problem instance is not only used to explore the implementation of the models presented, but also to explore the practically of the use of alternative formulation and solving techniques within the generic framework and the effectiveness of such methods including the neighbourhood search solving method. A stochastic dimension to the generic framework is explored, and solution techniques for this extension are explored, demonstrating the use of solution analysis to allow problem simplification and better solutions to be found. Finally the local search algorithm is applied to the larger models that arise from inclusion of scenarios, and the methods is demonstrated to be powerful for finding solutions for these large model that were insoluble using the MIP on the same hardware.
45
Maina, Marcelo Fabián. "Design of pedagogical scenarios: adapting the MISA method to the IMS LD specification." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/9130.
Full textAbstract:
This research supports the choice of a Design and Development Research approach for the creation and validation of ID methods, thus providing a theoretically-grounded and pedagogically-inclusive method for designing reusable pedagogical scenarios. It also presents a framework for articulating a generic instructional design theory with a coherent instructional design method, and hence, it contributes to augmenting the instructional design knowledge base. <br/>This dissertation presents a research divided into four main phases of development and validation. <br/>The first phase grounds the research in a theory of instructional design that aligns it with other related design disciplines, and decomposes the design problem into layers of artifact functionalities. This theory corresponds to software-engineering-infused instructional design methods also known as courseware engineering.<br/>The second phase explores ways to integrate an educational modeling language within an instructional design method for enabling the representation of pedagogical scenarios of computational facture. To reflect and experiment on this issue, we have chosen to study the MISA instructional design method developed at the LICEF research center and the IMS LD specification. <br/>The third phase presents an initial developmental solution, which is tested in a case study. We studied the introduction, into the MISA method, of a new technique supporting the design of a MISA pedagogical scenario according to IMS LD constraints. The aim was to test an 'economic' solution that would not require further modifications to the MISA method. We therefore conducted a case study where a technique for the representation of a conformed to IMS LD pedagogical scenario was applied to the transposition of a MISA pedagogical scenario by an expert instructional designer. <br/>The fourth and final phase exends the development and validation of a solution by way of a two-round Delphi method. We requested the participation of four experts. This developmental step included a selection and introduction of minor modifications of a set of MISA documentation elements identified as crucial for the design of IMS LD compliant pedagogical scenario. The Delphi enabled agreement on an adapted version of the MISA method that fulfills the design purpose. The final outcome of the design process is a pedagogical scenario with all the information required to run an IMS LD-like pedagogical scenario organized in a semi-formal manner and capable of translation into a structured markup language for running in a compliant learning management system. In this sense, the pedagogical scenario results in a document that can be understood as an intermediate state between a blueprint and an executable UoL.
46
Satt, Junior Sérgio. "Construção de cenário para uma refinaria de petróleo com baixa escala e não integrada: um estudo de caso." Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, 2012. http://www.repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/4108.
Full textAbstract:
Submitted by Maicon Juliano Schmidt (maicons) on 2015-06-30T19:19:44Z
No. of bitstreams: 1
Sergio Satt Junior.pdf: 2776264 bytes, checksum: de08438865c711b12dacc3721b268331 (MD5)<br>Made available in DSpace on 2015-06-30T19:19:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
Sergio Satt Junior.pdf: 2776264 bytes, checksum: de08438865c711b12dacc3721b268331 (MD5)
Previous issue date: 2012-07-06<br>Nenhuma<br>O ambiente empresarial atual apresenta determinados eventos de alta incerteza e de difícil previsibilidade, é necessário que as empresas e seus gestores estejam preparados para atuar em novos e diferentes ambientes de negócios. A mudança no ambiente do refino de petróleo no Brasil iniciou com a abertura do mercado de combustíveis em 1997, Lei 9.478/97. Essa lei propiciou a participação de outros agentes, além da Petrobras, no exercício das atividades de importação e exportação de derivados de petróleo. O segmento de refino no Brasil tem apresentado ciclos de baixa e alta, pois os preços dos derivados nas refinarias não têm sido reajustados na mesma velocidade dos movimentos de preços dos derivados no mercado internacional. Com isso, as refinarias não integradas, é o caso estudado neste trabalho - a Refinaria de Petróleo Riograndense, têm apresentado menor rentabilidade se comparadas com refinarias integradas. Portanto, é necessário identificar eventuais vantagens competitivas que permitam sustentar o negócio deste tipo de refinaria a partir de uma perspectiva de longo prazo. Para tal, foi aplicado o método de construção de cenário Global Business Network (GBN), a fim de criar cenários futuros que apontem alternativas de atuação para uma refinaria de petróleo de baixa escala e não integrada. Além disso, verificar quais as contribuições que o método de construção de cenários GBN trouxe para a empresa e seus gestores. A pesquisa foi caracterizada como qualitativa, exploratória, utilizando o método pesquisa-ação para descrever melhor a construção dos cenários na empresa pesquisada. O resultado da pesquisa foi a geração de dois cenários futuros para a Refinaria Riograndense, onde se apresentam caminhos distintos de atuação no segmento de refino, considerando o ambiente futuro dos negócios e as características da empresa, ou seja, refinaria de petróleo de baixa escala e não integrada. As conclusões do trabalho indicam que o método de construção de cenário GBN contribui para melhorar a percepção da empresa e dos seus gestores sobre o ambiente do futuro do negócio, reduzindo erros no processo de tomada de decisão. Com isso, foi possível apontar caminhos futuros de sobrevivência para a empresa em um ambiente de forte competitividade e restrições ambientais. Também, o método GBN mostrou-se ser flexível às características da empresa, permitindo valorizar os conhecimentos e experiências dos gestores, bem como incentivar o envolvimento dos gestores no processo de construção de cenários.<br>In the current business environment, there are certain events with high uncertainty that make predictability difficult; thus, companies and their managers must be prepared to act in new and different business environments. Changes in the environment of oil refining in Brazil began with the opening of the fuel market in 1997, since Law 9,478/97 enabled other agents, in addition to Petrobras, to participate in activities related to the import and export of oil products. The refining segment in Brazil has experienced cycles with low and high prices because they have not been adjusted at the same speed as the ones of oil products in the international market. From this perspective, non-integrated refineries were analyzed in this study, mainly the Riograndense Oil Refinery, which has shown lower profitability than integrated ones. Therefore, potential competitive advantages that enable the business to support this type of refinery in the long term were identified. The method of building Global Business Network (GBN) scenarios was applied in order to create future scenarios which can suggest alternatives to a small-scale and non-integrated oil refinery. Besides, the contributions that the method of building GBN scenarios brought to the company and its managers were verified. This qualitative and exploratory research used action research to better describe scenario building in the company. Results generated two scenarios (Maverick and Revolution) for the future of the Riograndense Refinery; they showed distinct paths to be followed in the refining segment, taking into consideration the future of the business environment and the characteristics of the company, i. e., a small-scale and non-integrated oil refinery. The study concludes that the method of constructing GBN scenario helps to improve the perception of the company and its managers about the future of the business environment, reducing errors in the process of decision making. In addition, future directions for the company to survive in an environment with strong competition and environmental constraints could be identified. Furthermore, the GBN method proved to be flexible concerning the characteristics of the company since it valued managers’ knowledge and experience and encouraged them to get involved in the process of scenario building.
47
Flowerdew, Tom. "Methods for the identification and optimal exploitation of profitable betting scenarios." Thesis, Lancaster University, 2016. http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/80398/.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis tackles the issue of how gamblers can profit from betting on the outcome of sporting events. In particular, it addresses issues which have arisen in recent years concerning both the inception of betting exchanges, and the technique of building complex statistical models to accurately predict the sporting outcomes. This thesis shows that bias in predictive models can be quantified from a collection of model outputs. It is shown that a Bayesian method can be constructed to derive accurate bias estimates, even when the model outputs are merely a collection of independent Bernoulli trials. In addition, the method is expanded, to allow the quantification of a time-varying bias, as long as it changes in a known, deterministic setting. The utility of this method is demonstrated via the correction of a simple football prediction model. The movements seen in betting markets before the event in question occurs are investigated. It is conjectured that the rate of increase of the amount of capital invested in the betting market is central to understanding other market movements. With this in mind, two approaches are derived, which both use a collection of historic market movements for past events for their predictions. It is shown that in many cases, some mix of the two approaches achieves the most accurate forecasts. A new gambling strategy, dubbed consolidated wagering is introduced. It is demonstrated that consolidated wagering outperforms all other candidate methods when considering string bets (multiple bets on the same event, at different odds). The application of these methods to investing in restricted markets in betting exchanges is demonstrated. Finally, the problem of string wagers under uncertainty is explored.
48
DESOGUS, CRISTINA. "Models and Methods for Network Selection and Balancing in Heterogeneous Scenarios." Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Cagliari, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/11584/284402.
Full textAbstract:
The outbreak of 5G technologies for wireless communications can be considered a response to the need for widespread coverage, in terms of connectivity and bandwidth, to guarantee broadband services, such as streaming or on-demand programs offered by the main television networks or new generation services based on augmented and virtual reality (AR / VR).
The purpose of the study conducted for this thesis aims to solve two of the main problems that will occur with the outbreak of 5G, that is, the search for the best possible connectivity, in order to offer users the resources necessary to take advantage of the new generation services, and multicast as required by the eMBMS.
The aim of the thesis is the search for innovative algorithms that will allow to obtain the best connectivity to offer users the resources necessary to use the 5G services in a heterogeneous scenario. Study UF that allows you to improve the search for the best candidate network and to achieve a balance that allows you to avoid congestion of the chosen networks. To achieve these two important focuses, I conducted a study on the main mathematical methods that made it possible to select the network based on QoS parameters based on the type of traffic made by users. A further goal was to improve the computational computation performance they present.
Furthermore, I carried out a study in order to obtain an innovative algorithm that would allow the management of multicast. The algorithm that has been implemented responds to the needs present in the eMBMS, in realistic scenarios.
49
Schaffer, Jennifer Lynn. "Performance of a sampling stochastic dynamic programming algorithm with various inflow scenario generation methods." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/51884.
Full textAbstract:
We present the implementation of a Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SSDP) algorithm to maximize water value, while meeting consumer demand for the BC Hydro hydroelectric system in British Columbia, Canada. The implementation includes power generation facilities on the Columbia and Peace River systems.
Variability of natural streamflow into a reservoir is a major source of uncertainty when developing reservoir operation policies and determining the value of water within a system. This study investigates SSDP model performance with various hydrologic inputs. Sixty years of historical data are used to generate hydrologic scenarios comprised of inflow and forecast sequences as input to the SSDP model. Scenario types studied include historical record data, inflows and forecasts generated from an autoregressive lag-1 model, and BC Hydro ensemble streamflow prediction forecasts.
We present results of our implementation of the SSDP algorithm including a discussion on improved reservoir operation policy and the future value of water with various hydrologic inputs. We also present our investigation of the marginal value of water with the evolution of forecasts. Results indicate that forecasts are most valuable in determining the value of water during the early freshet, and the value added from updating future forecasts diminishes as the time in which the forecast is made progresses through the melting period.<br>Applied Science, Faculty of<br>Civil Engineering, Department of<br>Graduate
50
Gaskill-Clemons, Robert John. "Scenario Planning for Organizational Adaptability: The Lived Experiences of Executives." ScholarWorks, 2018. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/5078.
Full textAbstract:
Organizational adaptability is critical to organizational survival, and executive leadership's inability to adapt to extreme disruptive complex events threatens survival. Scenario planning is one means of adapting to extreme disruptive complex events. In this qualitative interpretive phenomenological study, 20 executives who had lived experience with extreme disruptive complex events and applied scenario planning to help adapt participated in phenomenological interviews to share their experiences related to the application of scenario planning as a means adaptation to extreme disruptive complex events. Participants were from a single large organization with executives distributed throughout the United States and executives from 10 state agencies located within a single state. Using the thematic analysis process, 14 themes emerged. The themes included knowing the difference between adaptation and response, not being afraid to tackle difficult questions, scenario planning is never over because the environment constantly changes, the true measures of scenario planning value are the benefits achieved via the planning exercise versus the business application, and participation should be individuals who can or could have a direct influence on adaptation and do not get bogged down in structured and/or rigid processes, methods, or tools because while useful, they are not required to be successful. The implications for positive social change include the ability for organizations to reduce economic injury and the compound effects of disruption including the social impacts of business injury, disruption, recovery, job loss, and reduced revenue on communities and local economies.