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Wang, Xiao Lu. "Charging Characteristics of Electric Vehicles and Charging Cost Analysis." Advanced Materials Research 953-954 (June 2014): 1363–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.953-954.1363.
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This paper investigates the “Vehicle-charging mode” and the “Battery-changing mode” of the electric vehicles. Firstly, it analyzes the vehicle-charging time, the battery-changing time and the charging power under two modes. Secondly, this paper searches into different sorts of charging and sets up three scenarios based on the differences: scenario1, disorderly; scenario2, continuous; scenario 3, off-peak. Thirdly, this paper considers the combination of generator sets that reaches the requirements of electric vehicle charging based on the characteristics of different sorts of charging, concerns the increased fuel costs, O&M costs and start cost generated along, and draws conclusions with the comparison of the elements.
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Xiao, Yang, Qinli Xiong, and Kaiwen Pan. "What Is Left for Our Next Generation? Integrating Ecosystem Services into Regional Policy Planning in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China." Sustainability 11, no. 1 (December 20, 2018): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11010003.
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Land use/Land cover (LULC) changes as a result of policy planning influence ecosystem structures, processes, and functions, which are the basis for providing a wide range of ecosystem services (ES). There is an increasing consensus about the importance of integrating ES into ecological policy but quantifying the potential impacts of different policy on ES has proven difficult. We designed a remote sensing, geographic information system and scenario analysis-based approach to estimate and analyze the relationship between ES (soil conservation and carbon sequestration) and ecological policy designed to improve human welfare in the Chongqing municipality in the upper reaches of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China; a densely populated, highly modified watershed with serious soil erosion and flood hazard. Three alternative scenarios in 2050 were modeled for the Three Gorges Reservoir Area watershed. The model GEOMOD was used to predict future LULC changes due to policy planning. The ES models (Universal Soil Loss Equation model and Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model) were designed to inform decisions, with an aim to align economic forces with conservation. We examine policy effectiveness by comparing scenarios for 2050 (Scenario1: Maintain current policy with no considerations of ES; Scenario2: Integrate ES into policy planning; Scenario3: Integrate ES into policy planning in view of the need of local people). Scenario-based LULC change analysis revealed that if the current afforestation policy continues (scenario 1), total ES would be further increased in 2050 due to expansion of forest cover. However, by targeting policy to improve ES provision (scenarios 2 and 3), ecological risks of soil loss can be significantly reduced and carbon sequestration enhanced. Scenario 3, thus, provided the best future environmental development scenario considering the need of local people in each region for ES. This scenario will theoretically help the Three Gorges Dam to harvest more ecological benefits through improvements in soil conservation and carbon sequestration. This study highlights the observation that including ES in policy planning and has a great potential to generate opportunities to maximize ES. This study highlights that including ES in policy planning has a great potential to generate opportunities to maximize ES. Hence, there is a need to encourage proper implementation of ecological policy to maintain and improve ES.
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Jo, Hanghun, Seong-A. Kim, and Heungsoon Kim. "Forecasting the Reduction in Urban Air Pollution by Expansion of Market Shares of Eco-Friendly Vehicles: A Focus on Seoul, Korea." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 22 (November 19, 2022): 15314. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192215314.
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Due to global climate change, various countries have agreed upon the use of conventions. In this study, the eco-friendly vehicular policy on carbon neutrality implemented in Seoul, Korea, was examined. To this end, various policy-based scenarios were set, and the changes in automotive exhaust gas emissions were evaluated and compared. The evaluation method combined macroscopic and microscopic emission models as its analysis framework. Micro-traffic data available in Korea were used for analyses, and the results for all autonomous districts were derived to cover the entire area of Seoul. The findings confirmed that the most effective measure is the initial replacement of old, mid-size, or large diesel passenger cars with eco-friendly vehicles (Middle-sized: Scenario 2-1 5.52%, Scenario 2-2 6.86%, Scenario 3-1 80.93%, and Scenario 3-2 83.98%). The replacement of old vehicles exhibited the highest effect in all tested scenarios, while the initial replacement of diesel vehicles was more effective than the replacement of gasoline and liquified petroleum gas vehicles (Diesel: Scenario2-1 6.64%, Scenario 2-2 8.21%, Scenario3-1 86.23%, and Scenario 3-2 90.51%). Among the autonomous districts of Seoul, the Gangnam-gu area exhibited the largest emission-reduced effect among all the tested scenarios (Gangnam-gu: Scenario 2-1 5.80%, Scenario 2-2 6.74%, Scenario 3-1 80.44%, and Scenario 3-2 82.62%). Overall, it was demonstrated that the findings of this study may have significant policy implications in terms of urban emission changes pertaining to transportation.
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Nashih, AM Sa’dun, Kuncoro Harto Widodo, and Dyah Ismoyowati. "Inventory Level Analysis of Horticultural Commodities Exported by PT BSL from Central Java Indonesia to Singapore." KnE Life Sciences 3, no. 3 (January 1, 2016): 129. http://dx.doi.org/10.18502/kls.v3i3.407.
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<p>Horticultural commodities, in Indonesia, are one of the main clusters of export commodities. The demand of the commodities is relatively high due to the high economic level of consumers in Singapore. The exporter, e.g., PT BSL, had difficulties to meet the demand of Singapore’s importer. This problem will be analyzed with inventory system in the supply chain of vegetables and fruits exported from Central Java Indonesia to Singapore. To identify the problem, we combine a dynamic system approach and its validation. The data on existing conditions (with the level of rejection = 20%) were then formulated and modeled with two alternative scenarios, scenario1 and 2. In scenario 1, the level of rejection was set at the level of 10%, while scenario2 at the level of 30%. Based on the simulation results, it was found that the average level of inventory in the scenario 1 was at 661.9 kg per day, while in scenario 2 were 112.34 kg per day.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong>: dynamic systems, horticultural commodities, inventory, supply chain </p>
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Paltsev, Sergey. "Energy scenarios: the value and limits of scenario analysis." Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment 6, no. 4 (December 28, 2016): e242. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wene.242.
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Witt, Tobias, Katharina Stahlecker, and Jutta Geldermann. "Morphological analysis of energy scenarios." International Journal of Energy Sector Management 12, no. 4 (November 5, 2018): 525–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-09-2017-0003.
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PurposeEnergy scenarios have long been successfully used to inform decision-making in energy systems planning, with a wide range of different methodological approaches for developing and evaluating them. The purpose of this study is to analyze the existing approaches and classify them with a morphological box.Design/methodology/approachThis paper builds upon the methodological literature on developing and evaluating energy scenarios and presents a morphological box, which comprises parameters describing the scenario properties, (energy system) model properties, scientific practice and institutional settings of energy scenarios. The newly developed morphological box is applied to four selected energy scenarios of the German energy transition.FindingsThe morphological box is a suitable tool to classify current energy scenarios. The exemplary application also points toward four challenges in the current practice of energy scenario development and evaluation: increasing complexity of decision problems, transparency of the scenario development process, transparency of the decision support process and communication of uncertainty.Originality/valueThe morphological box of energy scenarios helps researchers soundly document and present their methodological approaches for energy scenario development and evaluation. It also facilitates the work of analysts who want to classify, interpret and compare energy scenarios from a methodological perspective. Finally, it supports the identification of gaps between current practice and the methodological literature on energy scenarios, leading to the development of new types of energy scenarios.
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Batsch, Felix, Alireza Daneshkhah, Vasile Palade, and Madeline Cheah. "Scenario Optimisation and Sensitivity Analysis for Safe Automated Driving Using Gaussian Processes." Applied Sciences 11, no. 2 (January 15, 2021): 775. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app11020775.
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Assuring the safety of automated vehicles is essential for their timely introduction and acceptance by policymakers and the public. To assess their safe design and robust decision making in response to all possible scenarios, new methods that use a scenario-based testing approach are needed, as testing on public roads in normal traffic would require driving millions of kilometres. We make use of the scenario-based testing approach and propose a method to model simulated scenarios using Gaussian Process based models to predict untested scenario outcomes. This enables us to efficiently determine the performance boundary, where the safe and unsafe scenarios can be evidently distinguished from each other. We present an iterative method that optimises the parameter space of a logical scenario towards the most critical scenarios on this performance boundary. Additionally, we conduct a novel probabilistic sensitivity analysis by efficiently computing several variance-based sensitivity indices using the Gaussian Process models and evaluate the relative importance of the scenario input parameters on the scenario outcome. We critically evaluate and investigate the usefulness of the proposed Gaussian Process based approach as a very efficient surrogate model, which can model the logical scenarios effectively in the presence of uncertainty. The proposed approach is applied on an exemplary logical scenario and shows viability in finding concrete critical scenarios. The reported results, derived from the proposed approach, could pave the way to more efficient testing of automated vehicles and instruct further physical tests on the determined critical scenarios.
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Pan, Xing, Lunhu Hu, Ziling Xin, Shenghan Zhou, Yanmei Lin, and Yong Wu. "Risk Scenario Generation Based on Importance Measure Analysis." Sustainability 10, no. 9 (September 7, 2018): 3207. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10093207.
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A risk scenario is a combination of risk events that may result in system failure. Risk scenario analysis is an important part of system risk assessment and avoidance. In engineering activity-based systems, important risk scenarios are related to important events. Critical activities, meanwhile, mean risk events that may result in system failure. This article proposes these definitions of risk event and risk scenario based on the characteristics of risk in engineering activity-based systems. Under the proposed definitions, a risk scenario framework generated based on importance measure analysis is given, in which critical activities analysis, risk event identification, and risk scenario generation are the three main parts. Important risk events are identified according to activities’ uncertain importance measure and important risk scenarios are generated on the basis of a system’s critical activities analysis. In the risk scenario generation process based on importance analysis, the importance degrees of network activities are ranked to identify the subject of risk events, so that risk scenarios can be combined and generated by risk events and the importance of scenarios is analyzed. Critical activities are analyzed by Taguchi tolerance design, mathematical analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation methods. Then the degrees of uncertain importance measure of activities are solved by the three methods and these results are compared. The comparison results in the example show that the proposed method of uncertain importance measure is very effective for distinguishing the importance level of activities in systems. The calculation and simulation results also verify that the risk events composed of critical activities can generate risk scenarios.
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Jakimavičius, Marius, and Marija Burinskienė. "ASSESSMENT OF VILNIUS CITY DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS BASED ON TRANSPORT SYSTEM MODELLING AND MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS." JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT 15, no. 4 (December 31, 2009): 361–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/1392-3730.2009.15.361-368.
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The paper describes the assessment of 3 Vilnius city development scenarios according to transport system parameters multi‐criteria analysis and performing transport system modelling for 2015 and 2025 years. Vilnius city development scenarios such as concentrated development, extensive development and decentralized concentrated development have been evaluated from a transport viewpoint. Vilnius city development scenarios have been evaluated by using SAW (Simple Additive Weighting) multi‐criteria method. According to this method development scenarios ranking calculations have been performed using transport system indicators. Urban transport system analysis model was developed for Vilnius conditions, which estimates the fuel consumption, average travel distance and driven time by car in morning peak hours depending on urban areas development scenario and socio‐economic data. This model should be used when calculating new projects of the transport infrastructure (by‐passes, new bridges) and when evaluating the economic efficiency of traffic organization projects. Santrauka Straipsnyje analizuojami trys susisiekimo sistemos požiūriu Vilniaus miesto plėtros scenarijai. Miesto plėtros scenarijai, kaip sutelktoji plėtra, decentralizuotai sutelktoji plėtra ir ekstensyvioji plėtra, vertinami daugiakriteriu metodu SAW ir atliekant Vilniaus miesto plėtros scenarijų modeliavimą 2015 m. ir 2025 m. Daugiakriteriu metodu nustatoma plėtros scenarijų prioritetinė eilė, vertinant Vilniaus miesto susisiekimo sistemos rodiklius. Modeliuojant plėtros scenarijų, nustatomi tokie rytinio piko metu rodikliai: kuro naudojimas, suminis nuvažiuotas atstumas, suminis kelionės laikas. Modeliavimas remiasi esamais ir numatytais bendrojo Vilniaus plano miesto gatvių tinklo duomenimis, transportinių rajonų dabartiniais ir prognozuojamais socialiniais bei ekonominiais duomenimis. Sukurtas modelis gali būti sėkmingai naudojamas vertinant transporto infrastruktūros ir eismo organizavimo projektų įtaką miesto susisiekimo sistemai.
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Densing, M., E. Panos, and S. Hirschberg. "Meta-analysis of energy scenario studies: Example of electricity scenarios for Switzerland." Energy 109 (August 2016): 998–1015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.020.
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Nazarko, Joanicjusz, and Anna Kononiuk. "THE CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF SCENARIO CONSTRUCTION IN THE POLISH FORESIGHT INITIATIVES." Technological and Economic Development of Economy 19, no. 3 (October 3, 2013): 510–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2013.809030.
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The aim of the article is to present the diagnosis of scenario method application in the Polish foresight initiatives. The concept of scenario method, its evolution, the state of the art of the Polish foresight studies and the critical analysis of the application of this method have been presented. From the questionnaire results the authors have identified (i) the approach used in scenario construction, (ii) the most important phases of scenario construction, (iii) the interconnection of scenario method with other methods of scenario construction, (iv) the profile of experts involved in foresight projects, (v) the profile of experts involved in scenario construction, (vi) the application of the triangulation principle in scenario construction, (vii) the application of wild cards in scenario construction and techniques to identify them, (viii) the average time of scenario construction process, (ix) the linkage of scenarios to other documents, (x) the number of scenarios elaborated upon, and (xi) the main difficulties in the process of scenario construction. To achieve article aims there have been used the following research methods: a literature review, the method of critical analysis and logical construction, survey research, the status of Polish foresight projects, interim and final report analysis. The research has been funded by the National Science Centre in Poland within a research project entitled Scenarios in future shaping and anticipation for foresight studies, project number: 4194/B/H03/2011/40.
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Ciaian, P. "Land use changes in the EU: Policy and macro impact analysis." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 53, No. 12 (January 7, 2008): 565–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/900-agricecon.
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This paper analyses the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and macroeconomy on land use changes in the EU. Three scenarios are simulated up to 2030: baseline, macro scenario and policy scenario. Simulation results indicate that GDP leads to a stronger effect on land use changes than the CAP. Stronger changes in land use are observed at the crop disaggregated level than at the aggregated level for the total agricultural area, arable land, grassland and permanent crops.
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Meng, Bin, Na Lu, Xinyao Guo, Qingmin Si, and Owen Bai. "Scenario Analysis of Emergency in Civil Aviation Airports Based on the Pressure- State-Response Model and Bayesian Network." Journal of Engineering Science and Technology Review 13, no. 5 (2020): 143–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.25103/jestr.135.18.
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The emergency response capability of civil aviation airports is the core to ensure the efficient handling of civil aviation emergencies. The dynamic characterization of the multi-scenario evolution paths of emergencies in civil aviation airports and quantitative targeted evaluation have become the study foci urgently needed to be solved by the current academic circles and airport departments for emergency management. To clarify the emergency mechanism, evolution mechanism, and multi-scenario evolution paths, this study first constructed the pressure-state-response (PSR) network expression of emergency scenario evolution in civil aviation airports. Then, the evolution path of airport emergency scenarios and the probability of different evolution scenarios were evaluated on the basis of the PSR model and Bayesian network (BN). Lastly, the specific process of the analysis method for emergency scenarios based on PSR and BN was demonstrated in consideration of emergency rescue drills in civil aviation airports as example. Results show that different emergency response measures are adopted for the critical scenarios of emergencies, and the development and evolution paths of emergency scenarios completely differ. The PSR-BN model for emergency scenario analysis can realize the reasoning process of combining the qualitative and quantitative scenarios of the dynamic evolution of civil aviation emergencies. It can comprehensively and systematically analyse the evolution of emergency scenarios in civil aviation airports, prove the feasibility and effectiveness of the analysis method, and effectively compensate for the shortcomings in the static analysis of emergency events. The model provides reference for the emergency analysis of civil aviation airports.
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Al Hasibi, Rahmat Adiprasetya. "The Analysis of CO2 Emission Reduction Scenarios in Industry Sector of Yogyakarta Province of Indonesia." Semesta Teknika 14, no. 1 (December 16, 2015): 33–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/st.v14i1.568.
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The final energy demand and energy-related CO2 emission in industrial sector of Yogyakarta Province were analyzed in this study. The potential of energy saving and reduction of CO2 emission were estimated. The analysis was based on energy model. The model was constructed by LEAP model that describe the pattern of energy demand in industrial sector. Energy modeling and scenario analysis were used to simulate the impacts of various policies in energy demand and CO2 emission. Three scenarios were implemented in the model. Initially, the model was developed under business as usual (BAU) scenario that include current situation of energy-related activity in industrial sector. 2008 was selected as base year with projection period was terminated in 2025. Then, two alternative scenarios were developed that focus on energy efficiency improvement (EE scenario) and fuel switching to cleaner fuel (FS scenario). The two alternative scenarios were integrated into mitigation scenario. The result of alternative and mitigation scenario compare to BAU scenario in term of the final energy demand and energy-related CO2 emission. The result of the model showed the potential of energy saving by implementing mitigation scenario is 24.16% compare to BAU scenario. The expected reduction of CO2 emission under mitigation scenario is 20.22% compare to BAU scenario.
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Anklam III, PhD, Charles, Adam Kirby, MS, Filipo Sharevski, MS, and J. Eric Dietz, PhD, PE. "Mitigating active shooter impact: Analysis for policy options based on agent/computer-based modeling." Journal of Emergency Management 13, no. 3 (May 1, 2015): 201. http://dx.doi.org/10.5055/jem.2015.0234.
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Active shooting violence at confined settings, such as educational institutions, poses serious security concerns to public safety. In studying the effects of active shooter scenarios, the common denominator associated with all events, regardless of reason/intent for shooter motives, or type of weapons used, was the location chosen and time expended between the beginning of the event and its culmination. This in turn directly correlates to number of casualties incurred in any given event. The longer the event protracts, the more casualties are incurred until law enforcement or another barrier can react and culminate the situation.Objective: Using AnyLogic technology, devise modeling scenarios to test multiple hypotheses against free-agent modeling simulation to determine the best method to reduce casualties associated with active shooter scenarios.Design, setting, subjects: Test four possible scenarios of responding to active shooter in a public school setting using agent-based computer modeling techniques—scenario 1: basic scenario where no access control or any type of security is used within the school; scenario 2, scenario assumes that concealed carry individual(s) (5-10 percent of the work force) are present in the school; scenario 3, scenario assumes that the school has assigned resource officer; scenario 4, scenario assumes that the school has assigned resource officer and concealed carry individual(s) (5-10 percent) present in the school.Main outcomes measured: Statistical data from modeling scenarios indicating which tested hypothesis resulted in fewer casualties and quicker culmination of event.Results: The use of AnyLogic proved the initial hypothesis that a decrease on response time to an active shooter scenario directly reduced victim casualties.Conclusions: Modeling tests show statistically significant fewer casualties in scenarios where on-scene armed responders such as resource officers and concealed carry personnel were present.
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Villa, Guillermo, Lucía Fernández–Ortiz, Jesús Cuervo, Pablo Rebollo, Rafael Selgas, Teresa González, and Javier Arrieta. "Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the Spanish Renal Replacement Therapy Program." Peritoneal Dialysis International: Journal of the International Society for Peritoneal Dialysis 32, no. 2 (March 2012): 192–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.3747/pdi.2011.00037.
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♦BackgroundWe undertook a cost-effectiveness analysis of the Spanish Renal Replacement Therapy (RRT) program for end-stage renal disease patients from a societal perspective. The current Spanish situation was compared with several hypothetical scenarios.♦MethodsA Markov chain model was used as a foundation for simulations of the Spanish RRT program in three temporal horizons (5, 10, and 15 years). The current situation (scenario 1) was compared with three different scenarios: increased proportion of overall scheduled (planned) incident patients (scenario 2); constant proportion of overall scheduled incident patients, but increased proportion of scheduled incident patients on peritoneal dialysis (PD), resulting in a lower proportion of scheduled incident patients on hemodialysis (HD) (scenario 3); and increased overall proportion of scheduled incident patients together with increased scheduled incidence of patients on PD (scenario 4).♦ResultsThe incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of scenarios 2, 3, and 4, when compared with scenario 1, were estimated to be, respectively, -€83 150, -€354 977, and -€235 886 per incremental quality-adjusted life year (ΔQALY), evidencing both moderate cost savings and slight effectiveness gains. The net health benefits that would accrue to society were estimated to be, respectively, 0.0045, 0.0211, and 0.0219 ΔQALYs considering a willingness-to-pay threshold of €35 000/ΔQALY.♦ConclusionsScenario 1, the current Spanish situation, was dominated by all the proposed scenarios. Interestingly, scenarios 3 and 4 showed the best results in terms of cost-effectiveness. From a cost-effectiveness perspective, an increase in the overall scheduled incidence of RRT, and particularly that of PD, should be promoted.
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Carlsen, Henrik, E. Anders Eriksson, Karl Henrik Dreborg, Bengt Johansson, and Örjan Bodin. "Systematic exploration of scenario spaces." Foresight 18, no. 1 (March 14, 2016): 59–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-02-2015-0011.
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Purpose – Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios. Findings – The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research. Originality/value – The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios.
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Lindkvist, Emma, Magnus Karlsson, and Jenny Ivner. "System Analysis of Biogas Production—Part II Application in Food Industry Systems." Energies 12, no. 3 (January 28, 2019): 412. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12030412.
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Biogas production from organic by-products is a way to recover energy and nutrients. However, biogas production is not the only possible conversion alternative for these by-products, and hence there is interest in studying how organic by-products are treated today and which alternatives for conversion are the most resource efficient from a systems perspective. This paper investigates if biogas production is a resource efficient alternative, compared to business as usual, to treat food industry by-products, and if so, under what circumstances. Five different cases of food industries were studied, all with different prerequisites. For all cases, three different scenarios were analysed. The first scenario is the business as usual (Scenario BAU), where the by-products currently are either incinerated, used as animal feed or compost. The second and third scenarios are potential biogas scenarios where biogas is either used as vehicle fuel (Scenario Vehicle) or to produce heat and power (Scenario CHP). All scenarios, and consequently, all cases have been analysed from three different perspectives: Economy, energy, and environment. The environmental perspective was divided into Global Warming Potential (GWP), Acidification Potential (AP), and Eutrophication Potential (EP). The results show, in almost all the systems, that it would be more resource efficient to change the treatment method from Scenario BAU to one of the biogas scenarios. This paper concludes that both the perspective in focus and the case at hand are vital for deciding whether biogas production is the best option to treat industrial organic by-products. The results suggest that the food industry should not be the only actor involved in deciding how to treat its by-products.
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Primasari, Indah. "Project Investment Plan Valuation Using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (Case Study of LLP Compression Project Investment Plan at Tango Field, Mehacca Block)." European Journal of Business and Management Research 7, no. 4 (August 25, 2022): 342–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.24018/ejbmr.2022.7.4.1596.
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This article performs a valuation analysis of LLP Compression in project investment plan at Tango Field in Mehacca Block. The LLP Compression investment project plan is currently under consideration for a Final Investment Decision (FID). The analysis is conducted by using quantitative methodology approach to evaluate 2 project scenario based on its cash flow. The outcome of financial valuation could assist decision maker in the company, in determining whether the project is economically profitable, whether it should be executed, what scenario can generate maximum economic profit for the company, and also what financial factor affecting LLP Compression Project cash flow that should be managed to avoid negative financial results and to forecast project likelihood of success. For DCF analysis, with company discount rate at 10.2%, the Net Present Value (NPV) result is 1.12 Million USD for Scenario 1 and 0.91 Million USD for Scenario 2. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for both scenarios are higher than company’s discount rate. Payback Period for both scenarios are also the same in year 2026, or 2 years after production. Profitability Index (PI) for Scenario 1 is slightly higher than Scenario 1 amounting at 1.07, while PI for scenario 2 is 1.03. All of the parameters from DCF gives positive result more than expected return, with scenario 1 that provide better value than scenario 2. Monte Carlo simulation is also used to provide a likelihood of having a negative NPV. The result is that both scenarios have probability negative NPV amounting 28% for scenario 1 and 30% for scenario 2. Based on Monte Carlo Simulation result, scenario 1 has slightly lower probability of generating negative NPV than Scenario 2. Sensitivity analysis is also being used to look how large NPV project varies if the parameter inputs are changed. Four parameters tested with assumption change at ± 25% from original condition. Based on sensitivity analysis, it is observed that Gas Production, Gas Price are the most sensitive parameter for both scenarios of LLP Compression project. In summary, the LLP Compression Project investment plan is feasible to be executed for both scenarios, with scenario 1 provides higher economic profit than scenario 2, and it also generates slightly lower probability negative NPV than scenario 2. Since LLP Compression Project has probability of gaining negative NPV based on Monte Carlo Simulation Result, hence several strategies to minimize project risk exposure are required to be determined before project execution.
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Parra Santiago, Jose Ignacio, Alberto Camarero Orive, and Nicoletta González Cancelas. "DEA-Bootstrapping Analysis for Different Models of Spanish Port Governance." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 9, no. 1 (December 30, 2020): 30. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse9010030.
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The Spanish port system is subjected to a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)-Bootstrapping analysis of its operational and financial efficiency to be compared to two other scenarios. One of these presents a port cluster based on the grouping of ports because of their proximity, and the second scenario proposes a port cluster based on seafronts. The analysis is made up of a DEA-Bootstrapping of two inputs and two outputs for both the operational and financial efficiency analyses. The results of the DEA-Bootstrapping analysis show a series of results that favour these two scenarios against the present situation, as both the operational and financial efficiency are improved in relation to the current scenario or scenario 0.
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Loukil, Slim, Lamia Chaari Fourati, Anand Nayyar, and K. W. A. Chee. "Analysis of LoRaWAN 1.0 and 1.1 Protocols Security Mechanisms." Sensors 22, no. 10 (May 13, 2022): 3717. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s22103717.
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LoRaWAN is a low power wide area network (LPWAN) technology protocol introduced by the LoRa Alliance in 2015. It was designed for its namesake features: long range, low power, low data rate, and wide area networks. Over the years, several proposals on protocol specifications have addressed various challenges in LoRaWAN, focusing on its architecture and security issues. All of these specifications must coexist, giving rise to the compatibility issues impacting the sustainability of this technology. This paper studies the compatibility issues in LoRaWAN protocols. First, we detail the different protocol specifications already disclosed by the LoRa Alliance in two major versions, v1.0 and v1.1. This is done through presenting two scenarios where we discuss the communication and security mechanisms. In the first scenario, we describe how an end node (ED) and network server (NS) implementing LoRaWAN v1.0 generate session security keys and exchange messages for v1.0. In the second scenario, we describe how an ED v1.1 and an NS v1.1 communicate after generating security session keys. Next, we highlight the compatibility issues between the components implementing the two different LoRaWAN Specifications (mainly v1.0 and v1.1). Next, we present two new scenarios (scenarios 3 and 4) interchanging the ED and NS versions. In scenario three, we detail how an ED implementing LoRaWAN v1.1 communicates with an NS v1.0. Conversely, in scenario four, we explain how an ED v1.0 and an NS v1.1 communicate. In all these four scenarios, we highlight the concerns with security mechanism: show security session keys are generated and how integrity and confidentiality are guaranteed in LoRaWAN. At the end, we present a comparative table of these four compatibility scenarios.
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Jafari, Hamid, Ahmad Jonidi Jafari, Mahmoud Nekoei-Moghadam, and Salime Goharinezhad. "The use of uncertain scenarios in disaster risk reduction: a systematic review." foresight 21, no. 3 (May 30, 2019): 409–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-11-2018-0099.
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Purpose In recent years, futures study methods, especially scenario analysis, are used to plan for disaster and emergency management. Scenario method is suitable for public level policy making. Scenarios generated alternative descriptive futures in all of the development field such as disaster studies. This paper aims to systematically review the articles that generated scenarios in disaster management to attain gaps, challenges and opportunities related to use of scenario analysis in disasters. Design/methodology/approach This is a systematic review that was conducted based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The keywords that searched included “disaster,” “emergency,” “crisis,” “disruptive event,” “futures study,” “foresight,” “scenario,” “community-based scenario planning,” “participatory scenario planning,” “scenario planning” and “scenario analysis.” The Google Scholar, ISI Web of Science, Science Direct, PubMed and Scopus databases were searched. Findings A total of 981 article gathered after initial search between electronic databases. At final step, only ten articles included in the study. The selected articles compared according to many aspects. Most of the scenarios that developed in disaster management and planning concentrated on climate change and flooding related hazards. Many of studies developed three or four scenarios that it seems the number is suitable for disaster planning. Originality/value The paper serves as an original guideline for disaster planning.
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Giertz, S., B. Diekkrüger, A. Jaeger, and M. Schopp. "An interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in Benin." Advances in Geosciences 9 (September 26, 2006): 3–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-9-3-2006.
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Abstract. This paper presents an interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the influence of global and regional change on future water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in central Benin. For the region three development scenarios were evolved. These scenarios are combined with climate change scenarios based on the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). In the modelling approach the quantification of the land use/land cover change is performed by the cellular automata model CLUE-S. The future climate scenarios are computed with the regional climate model REMO driven by the global ECHAM model. Using this data different land use and climate change scenarios can be calculated with the conceptual hydrological model UHP-HRU to assess the effects of global changes on the future water availability in Benin. To analyse the future water availability also the water consumption has to be taken into account. Due to high population growth an increase in water need in the future is expected for the region. To calculate the future household water consumption data from a regional survey and demographic projections are used. Development of the water need for animal husbandry is also considered. The first test run of the modelling approach was performed for the development scenario 'business as usual' combined with the IPCC scenario B2 for the year 2025. This test demonstrates the applicability of the approach for an interdisciplinary scenario analysis. A continuous run from 2000–2025 will be simulated for different scenarios as soon as the input data concerning land use/land cover and climate are available.
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Maslikhina, V. Yu. "Scenario planning for the development of spatial economic and social systems: Methodological approaches." Regional Economics: Theory and Practice 18, no. 10 (October 15, 2020): 1839–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/re.18.10.1839.
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Subject. This article reviews and systematizes methodological approaches to generate scenarios and develop a scenario planning algorithm in relation to spatial socio-economic systems. Objectives. The article aims to analyze and classify scenarios and algorithms of scenario planning, as well as choose and justify an approach to scenario planning of the development of spatial socio-economic systems. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, comparison, and classification. Results. The article clarifies the definitions of Scenario and Scenario Planning and categorizes scenarios according to different criteria. It reveals the gap between the theory and practice of scenario planning in Russian regions. The article also offers certain recommendations on the use of scenarios in regional planning. Conclusions. The article concludes that the hybrid approach in scenario planning of the development of spatial socio-economic systems (countries, regions, cities, municipalities) is more preferable than the exploratory or normative ones.
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Asadi, Mahdi, Iman Larki, Mohammad Mahdi Forootan, Rouhollah Ahmadi, and Meisam Farajollahi. "Long-Term Scenario Analysis of Electricity Supply and Demand in Iran: Time Series Analysis, Renewable Electricity Development, Energy Efficiency and Conservation." Sustainability 15, no. 5 (March 4, 2023): 4618. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su15054618.
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Electricity plays a vital role in the economic development and welfare of countries. Examining the electricity situation and defining scenarios for developing power plant infrastructure will help countries avoid misguided policies that incur high costs and reduce people’s welfare. In the present research, three scenarios from 2021–2040 have been defined for Iran’s electricity status. The first scenario continues the current trend and forecasts population, electricity consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions from power plants with ARIMA and single and triple exponential smoothing time series algorithms. As part of the second scenario, only non-hydro renewable resources will be used to increase the electricity supply. By ensuring the existence of potential, annual growth patterns have been defined, taking into account the renewable electricity generation achieved by successful nations. The third scenario involves integrating operating gas turbines into combined cycles in exchange for buyback contracts. Economically, this scenario calculates return on investment through an arrangement of various contracts for the seller company and fuel savings for the buyer.
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Witt, Tobias, Marcel Dumeier, and Jutta Geldermann. "Combining scenario planning, energy system analysis, and multi-criteria analysis to develop and evaluate energy scenarios." Journal of Cleaner Production 242 (January 2020): 118414. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118414.
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khademi Jolgeh Nejad, Afsaneh, Reza Ahmadi Kahnali, and Ali Heyrani. "Developing Hospital Resilient Supply Chain Scenario through Cross-Impact Analysis Method." Depiction of Health 12, no. 4 (November 3, 2021): 310–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.34172/doh.2021.30.
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Background and Objectives The hospital and its supply chain must be resilient in the critical situations. Developing scenario is an important tool for planning and decision-making process in these situations. Therefore, this study intended to develop possible scenarios for hospital supply chain resilience. Material and Methods This research study is applied in terms of purpose and is based the scenario method and the probabilistic trends approach. The participants of the study were 14 experts from two hospitals who were selected through a purposeful sampling method. The data obtained in the first phase of the semi-structured interviews, were coded and analyzed through using MAXQDA Software. In the next phase, the cross impact analysis questionnaire was used to develop the scenario and the analysis of the data was performed through Scenario Wizard software. Results The results of combining 35 states for 12 factors affecting hospital resilience which also included all possible future states, showed that 7 scenarios with high adaptation and 467 scenarios with poor adaptation can be considered. Strong scenarios were divided into three groups of scenarios as "optimistic", "intermediate" and "pessimistic" based on similarity and degree of desirability. Conclusion The Findings revealed that the strength of the impact of unfavorable states was more than that of favorable states. Therefore, for the resilience of the hospital supply chain, it is necessary to pay more attention to unfavorable scenarios to provide the necessary preparation to face those states, and with proper planning, the desired states can be achieved. Extended Abstract Background and Objectives The complexity and intensity of environmental fluctuations combined with unexpected accidents and dangers have increased the probability of hospital supply chain disruptions. The hospital and its supply chain must be intelligent to resist unforeseen events, so that in different situations, there is no work stoppage in their activities. Scenarios are an important tool for improving the planning and decision-making process in these situations. The purpose of this paper is to develop a scenario for hospital supply chain resilience. Material and Methods This research is based on the scenario method, and it is applied in terms of purpose. In addition, in the category of normative scenarios and based on the probabilistic modified trends (PMT) school. The Participants were 14 experts from two hospitals who were purposefully selected. The data obtained in the first phase from interviews, were coded and analyzed through MAXQDA Software. In the second phase, based on the participants' viewpoints, the possible states of each of the identified factors in the previous stage were defined, and the cross impact questionnaire was designed. The cross impact questionnaire is in the form of a matrix in which respondents determine the effect of each state on other states. Finally, cross impact analysis method and Scenario Wizard software were used to compile the scenario and compatibility coefficients and total impact score indices were used to examine compatible scenarios. Results Based on analysis results of the semi-structured interviews, 30 drivers of hospital supply chain resilience were identified. These factors were clustered in the form of 12 main components including: "staff preparedness and accountability in the event of a disaster", "safety of infrastructure and equipment", "recovery of infrastructure after disaster", "cooperation and participation of various organizations and communication systems among them", "support systems and potential hospital capacity", "coordination and flexibility of suppliers", "planning and management of disaster", "nature of accidents", "government policies", "sanctions on drugs and equipment", "people's culture at the time of the accident", and "funding". The output of Scenario Wizard software showed 7 strong scenarios that were divided into three groups of scenarios as "Optimistic", "pessimistic" and "interstitial" based on their rank and degree of desirability. The Optimistic scenarios include ideal resilient and hard resilient scenarios, the interstitial scenarios comprise high-capacity and troublesome challenging scenarios, and the pessimistic scenarios consist of vulnerable, defenseless and fragmented scenarios. Conclusion The results showed that the strength of the impact of undesirable situations was more than that of desirable situations. Hence, for the resilience of the hospital supply chain, it is necessary to pay more attention to undesirable scenarios in comparison to desirable ones in order to provide the necessary preparation to face those situations and to reach the desirable situations through proper planning. Practical Implications of Research Due to the challenges of traditional planning in the face of the future, in this study, the scenario developing approach was used as a tool to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of planning in the hospital supply chain. Managers and planners can substitute alternative futures for a single future and plan to take advantage of favorable future situations and avoid or reduce the effects of unfavorable future situations to be better prepared to face the future. Ethical Considerations In the present study, all ethical considerations have been observed based on the recommendations and regulations. Conflict of Interest The authors stated that there is no conflict of interest. Aknowledgment This article is based on the result of Afsaneh Khademi-Jolgehnejad’s Master thesis submitted to the University of Hormozgan and received approval code Under 11130.Authors are grateful to the consultants of the Clinical Research Development Center of Shahid Mohammadi Hospital and Bandar Abbas Children's Hospital for their cooperation and guidances.
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Di Maio, Francesco, Matteo Vagnoli, and Enrico Zio. "Risk-Based Clustering for Near Misses Identification in Integrated Deterministic and Probabilistic Safety Analysis." Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations 2015 (2015): 1–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/693891.
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In integrated deterministic and probabilistic safety analysis (IDPSA), safe scenarios and prime implicants (PIs) are generated by simulation. In this paper, we propose a novel postprocessing method, which resorts to a risk-based clustering method for identifying Near Misses among the safe scenarios. This is important because the possibility of recovering these combinations of failures within a tolerable grace time allows avoiding deviations to accident and, thus, reducing the downtime (and the risk) of the system. The postprocessing risk-significant features for the clustering are extracted from the following: (i) the probability of a scenario to develop into an accidental scenario, (ii) the severity of the consequences that the developing scenario would cause to the system, and (iii) the combination of (i) and (ii) into the overall risk of the developing scenario. The optimal selection of the extracted features is done by a wrapper approach, whereby a modified binary differential evolution (MBDE) embeds aK-means clustering algorithm. The characteristics of the Near Misses scenarios are identified solving a multiobjective optimization problem, using the Hamming distance as a measure of similarity. The feasibility of the analysis is shown with respect to fault scenarios in a dynamic steam generator (SG) of a nuclear power plant (NPP).
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Kharvari, Farzam, Sara Azimi, and William O’Brien. "A preliminary scenario analysis of the impacts of teleworking on energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2069, no. 1 (November 1, 2021): 012077. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2069/1/012077.
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Abstract This paper uses scenario analysis to investigate the broader impact of teleworking in four scenarios including the COVID-19 pandemic, worst-, moderate-, and best-case scenarios on building-level energy use, energy consumption in transportation, and information and communication technology (ICT) usage by using the databases of the Government of Canada. The COVID-19 scenario relies on the available data for the pandemic period. The worst-case scenario is when telework has an adverse effect on energy use while the moderate-and best-case scenarios are when the minimum and maximum savings are achieved by telework. The data includes commuting distances, electricity and natural gas consumption for offices and residential buildings, and ICT usage. Then, the associated GHG emissions are calculated for transportation, residential and office buildings, and ICT and the analysis are carried out by applying a potential fraction of saving to the associated GHG emissions of each domain and scenario. This paper demonstrates the potential energy savings of teleworking significantly depends on teleworker behavior to a degree that in the worst-case scenario no potential saving is observed while the savings are significant in the best-case scenario. Therefore, the impact of telework is highly uncertain and complicated and current statistics are insufficient for accurate estimates.
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Vesali, Leila, Seyed Reza Naqib Sadat, Hossein Afkhami, and Ali Asghar Kia. "Managing uncertainties for effective social network: Strategic analysis of media literacy with Scenario Planning Method." Journal of Governance and Accountability Studies 2, no. 1 (January 25, 2022): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.35912/jgas.v2i1.755.
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Abstract Purpose: This research was conducted to identify future scenarios in the field of media literacy and explore alternative futures in this field in Iran. Research methodology: The method of this research was scenario planning or scenario design with an exploratory futuristic approach. In this method, in several steps from identifying the factors affecting the future of media literacy to exploring future uncertainties, creating the logic of scenarios, describing the narrative of scenarios, identifying and strategically analyzing opportunities and threats related to each scenario, and finally identifying strategies for the future Includes with each scenario. Results: In this study, 30 factors affecting the future were identified and analyzed perceptually/cognitively. The output of the research is to present four possible future scenarios of media literacy with the letters of Paradise Lost, Titanic, Leviathan, and The Dark Knight, each of which is described in the following article. Limitations: Each of the strategies is derived from the matrix analysis of opportunities and threats and their interaction. Contribution: The present study will theoretically contribute to the academic and theoretical richness as well as promote the culture and literature of futurism in the field of communication sciences and especially in the field of media literacy. It has operational importance and necessity.
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JI, XIAODONG, XIUJUAN ZHAO, and XIULI CHAO. "A NOVEL METHOD FOR MULTISTAGE SCENARIO GENERATION BASED ON CLUSTER ANALYSIS." International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making 05, no. 03 (September 2006): 513–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219622006002106.
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Based on cluster analysis, a novel method is introduced in this paper to generate multistage scenarios. A linear programming model is proposed to exclude the arbitrage opportunity by appending a scenario to the generated scenario set. By means of a cited stochastic linear goal programming portfolio model, a case is given to exhibit the virtues of this scenario generation approach.
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Erdmann, Lorenz, and Lorenz M. Hilty. "Scenario Analysis." Journal of Industrial Ecology 14, no. 5 (October 2010): 826–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1530-9290.2010.00277.x.
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Choi, Doo Sung, Jong-Sang Youn, Im Hack Lee, Young-Kwon Park, Byung Jin Choi, and Ki-Joon Jeon. "Analysis of National PM2.5 (FPM and CPM) Emissions by Past, Current, and Future Energy Mix Scenarios in the Republic of Korea." Sustainability 11, no. 16 (August 8, 2019): 4289. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11164289.
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The main purpose of this study was to analyze the Korean PM2.5 emissions according to the past, present, and future energy mix scenarios from 1970 to 2035, with the aim of identifying a sustainable, future environmentally friendly energy mix scenario for Korea related to PM2.5 emissions. To calculate the PM2.5 emissions according to an energy mix plan, we assumed two scenarios: (1) Scenario 1 is based on an energy conversion scenario established by the Korean government’s 7th electric power demand supply program; and (2) Scenario 2 is enhancement of fuel cell usage. In Scenario 1, filterable PM2.5 (FPM2.5) emission was calculated as 61,158 ton/year, which includes contributions of anthracite (46.8%), petroleum (39.7%), natural gas (LNG) (10.0%), and LPG (0.1%). In Scenario 2, FPM2.5 emission was calculated as 36,917 ton/year, which includes contributions of petroleum (47.8%), anthracite (40.3%), bituminous coal (10.1%), and LNG (1.7%). Thus, we concluded that the FPM2.5 mitigation effect from fuel cell policy enforcement is about 38.13% higher than the Korean national energy conversion policy. PM2.5 (FPM2.5 + condensable PM2.5 (CPM2.5)) emissions dramatically increased in both energy mix scenarios so that CPM2.5 should be considered when estimating PM2.5 emissions and PM2.5 reduction.
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Takeda, Seiji, Yoshihisa Inoue, and Hideo Kimura. "Sensitivity Analysis for the Scenarios on Deterioration or Loss of Safety Functions Expected in Disposal System Due to Human Error on Application of Engineering Technology." MRS Proceedings 1518 (2013): 237–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1557/opl.2013.89.
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ABSTRACTThe sensitive analysis of radionuclide migration for the scenarios on deterioration or loss of safety functions expected in HLW disposal system due to the human error (initial defective scenarios) is performed in this study. Release rates for Cs-135 and Se-79 are estimated from Monte Carlo-based analysis. Maximum release rates of Se-79 and Cs-135 from natural barrier in initial defective scenarios for vitrified waste and overpack are approximately equivalent to that in normal scenario on all safety function working. Maximum release rate of Se-79 in initial defective scenario of buffer under the condition of colloidal migration is about 30 times as high as that in normal scenario. Maximum release rate of Cs-135 in initial defective scenario of plugs is about two orders of magnitude higher than that in normal scenario. These results especially indicate the need to understand the feasibility on two types of initial defective scenario, leading to the loss of restraint for colloidal migration in buffer and the loss of restraint with plugs from short-circuit migration.
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Insan, Dokrak, Wattanapong Rakwichian, Parichart Rachapradit, and Prapita Thanarak. "The Business Analysis of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations to Power Environmentally Friendly Tourism: A Case Study of the Khao Kho Route in Thailand." International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 12, no. 6 (November 28, 2022): 102–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.13535.
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The growing demand for electric vehicle charging stations is due to the increasing number of electric vehicles due to the rapid development of electric vehicle production and people buying more. This has also increased the demand for electric vehicle charging stations to travel between cities. This is because most combustion cars nowadays use fossil fuels. It harms clean air, producing carbon dioxide (CO2), PM2.5, and greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in climate changes and natural environmental impacts. Directly affect people in terms of health, living, and present life. By emphasizing the participation of business and government sectors, Thailand has encouraged investment in producing and importing electric vehicles to replace fossil fuel combustion. They also promoted the development of electric cars to be more efficient and run longer distances. The cumulative number of electric vehicles from 2017 to the present is increasing, making business opportunities for EV charging stations available in Thailand. From business model analysis was designed in 3 scenarios, resulting in Scenario1 Normal charger 6 outlets, in which the cost is low, the cost recovery time is the most, and it has a low net profit margin installed in shopping malls, restaurants, and residential condominiums. Scenario2 Quick charger 6 outlets take less time to charge. A high charging and increased investment cost have a short payback period installed in front of convenience stores and the current gas station. Scenario3 is a combination of an electric vehicle charging station with a normal charger and quick charger total of 2 outlets, installed in large areas such as current gas stations, logistics centers, and department stores with souvenir shops and convenience stores. This information can help analyze costs and plan investment decisions on the ownership of electric vehicle charging stations. In addition, electric vehicle charging station scenarios can be compared to predict the net profit margin of the business model.
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Hertz, Morten, Iben Ravnborg Jensen, Laura Østergaard Jensen, Iben Vejrum Nielsen, Jacob Winde, Astrid Vik Stronen, Torsten Nygaard Kristensen, and Cino Pertoldi. "Population viability analysis on a native Danish cattle breed." Animal Genetic Resources/Ressources génétiques animales/Recursos genéticos animales 59 (October 26, 2016): 105–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s2078633616000205.
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SummaryMany domestic breeds face challenges concerning genetic variability, because of their small population sizes along with a high risk of inbreeding. Therefore, it is important to obtain knowledge on their extinction risk, along with the possible benefits of certain breeding strategies. Since many domestic breeds face the same problems, results from such studies can be applied across breeds and species. Here a Population Viability Analysis (PVA) was implemented to simulate the future probability of extinction for a population of the endangered Danish Jutland cattle (Bos taurus), based on the software Vortex. A PVA evaluates the extinction risk of a population by including threats and demographic values. According to the results from the PVA the population will go extinct after 122 years with the current management. Four scenarios were created to investigate which changes in the breeding scheme would have the largest effect on the survival probabilities, including Scenario 1: More females in the breeding pool, scenario 2: More males in the breeding pool, scenario 3: Increased carrying capacity, and scenario 4: Supplementing males to the population through artificial insemination using semen from bulls used in the populations in past generations. All scenarios showed a positive effect on the population's probability of survival, and with a combination of the different scenarios, the population size seems to be stabilized.
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Huang, Kui, Wen Nie, and Nianxue Luo. "A Method of Constructing Marine Oil Spill Scenarios from Flat Text Based on Semantic Analysis." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 8 (April 13, 2020): 2659. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082659.
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Constructed emergency response scenarios provide a basis for decision makers to make management decisions, and the development of such scenarios considers earlier historical cases. Over the decades, the development of emergency response scenarios has mainly implemented the elements of historic cases to describe the grade and influence of an accident. This paper focuses on scenario construction and proposes a corresponding framework based on natural language processing (NLP) using text reports of marine oil spill accidents. For each accident, the original textual reports are first divided into sentence sets corresponding to the temporal evolution. Each sentence set is regarded as a textual description of a marine oil spill scenario. A method is proposed in this paper, based on parsing, named entity recognition (NER) and open information extraction (OpenIE) to process the relation triples that are extracted from the sentence sets. Finally, the relation triples are semantically clustered into different marine oil spill domains to construct scenarios. The research results are validated and indicate that the proposed scenario construction framework can be effectively used in practical applications.
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Nugrahanto, Candra Arie, Jaka Windarta, and Jaka Aminata. "Analysis of Causality Relationship Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions to Economic Growth based on the LEAP Model Case Study of Energy Consumption in Indonesia 2010-2025)." E3S Web of Conferences 73 (2018): 01002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20187301002.
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This study discusses scenarios and analyzes the causal relationship of energy consumption and CO2 emissions to economic growth in Indonesia period 2010-2025. The modeling scenario is divided into 6 sections, namely BAU scenario, High scenario, Low scenario, High-Low scenario, Low-High scenario and Policy scenario. The result of scenario data is processed by performing statistical data modeling and econometric period 2010-2025. The research method used interpolation method and causality testing method. The tools are used in this research is LEAP and EViews. LEAP is used for energy modeling as well as CO2 emissions and EViews is used to manage data, analyze econometrics and statistics. The results of this study show that economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions at 6 scenario indicate fluctuated competitive growth. This study proves that only 1 scenario has direct causality relationship that is only energy consumption which statistically significant influence economic growth in Policy scenario. For economic growth and CO2 emissions there are 4 scenarios that have direct causality (BAU, High, High -Low, Low-High scenario), 1 scenario has no causality relationship (Low scenario) and 1 scenario has two -way causality relationship (Policy scenario).
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Maeda, Takahiro, Hiroyuki Fujiwara, Toshihiko Hayakawa, Satsuki Shimono, and Sho Akagi. "Cluster Analysis of Long-Period Ground-Motion Simulation Data with Application to Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake Scenarios." Journal of Disaster Research 13, no. 2 (March 19, 2018): 254–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2018.p0254.
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We developed a clustering method combining principal component analysis and the k-means algorithm, which classifies earthquake scenarios based on the similarity of the spatial distribution of earthquake ground-motion simulation data generated for many earthquake scenarios, and applied it to long-period ground-motion simulation data for Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake scenarios. Values for peak ground velocity and relative velocity response at approximately 80,000 locations in 369 earthquake scenarios were represented by 15 principal components each, and earthquake scenarios were categorized into 30 clusters. In addition, based on clustering results, we determined that extracting relationships between principal components and scenario parameters is possible. Furthermore, by utilizing these relationships, it may be possible to easily estimate the approximate ground-motion distribution from the principal components of arbitrary sets of scenario parameters.
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Gunasekara, N. K., S. Kazama, D. Yamazaki, and T. Oki. "The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 9, no. 8 (August 3, 2012): 9239–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-9-9239-2012.
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Abstract. The effectiveness of population policy scenarios in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest Representative Concentration Pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that in combination with a more heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world, a more convergent, environmentally friendly emissions scenario, such as B1, can result in a high-impact climate scenario, similar to A2, for the already water-stressed low latitudes. However, the effect of population change supersedes the changes in the climate scenarios. In 2100, Africa, Middle-East and parts of Asia are in extreme water-stress under all scenarios. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the no-policy scenario and the scenario with fertility- reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective at reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the space for adaptation.
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Wibowo, Yuli, Nidya Shara Mahardika, and Lia Sumi Karmila. "PROSPEK PENGEMBANGAN MINAPOLITAN DI KABUPATEN SITUBONDO." JURNAL AGROTEKNOLOGI 14, no. 01 (August 14, 2020): 78. http://dx.doi.org/10.19184/j-agt.v14i01.16598.
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The Government of Situbondo Regency has implemented an agropolitan program in its region since 2013 to develop the potential of fisheries and marine resources. However, the program has not been able to develop as expected and still lacks the impact. This study aimed to determine the prospects for the development of the Minapolitan program in Situbondo Regency. The results of this study were expected to provide guidelines for the development of the Minapolitan program in Situbondo Regency. This study used a prospective analysis method. Method of minapolitan development strategy formulation used Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). This research produced scenarios that might occur in the future. These scenarios could serve as a guideline for the preparation of the minapolitan development strategy in Situbondo Regency. The results of the study showed that there were four scenarios will occur in the future, namely the optimistic developing scenario, the pessimistic developing scenario, there was still hope scenario and alert scenario. Based on discussions with experts, the most likely scenario to occur were an optimistic developing scenario and there was still hope scenario. Based on the scenarios that were most likely to occur, the strategy that can be applied for the development of Minapolitan in Situbondo Regency based on AHP method was to provide assistance and facilitate access to technology, markets, and capital.Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, minapolitan, prospective analysis
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Shi, Zhong Guo. "A Fuzzy Model of Scenario Planning Based on the Credibility Theory and Fuzzy Programming." Advanced Materials Research 328-330 (September 2011): 2423–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.328-330.2423.
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Uncertainty, complexity and paradigm shift are three challenges that are inherent in emerging technologies. Scenarios provide background for decision-making by clarifying possible paths of emerging technologies. Based on the analysis of three basic stages of empirical scenario construction, i.e. analysis phase, subsystem analysis phase and syntheses phase, credibility theory and fuzzy programming are introduced to dissolve scenario planning problems. This paper adopt such research road as (1) measurement of factors’ credibility, (2) analysis of pairwise factors’ compatibility, (3) eliminate incompatible scenarios through pruning rules, and (4) choice of scenarios through fuzzy programming. And then, the choice of scenarios can be conducted by expected value model. In the end, the further research fields are also discussed.
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Zhang, Nan, Timo Smura, Björn Grönvall, and Heikki Hämmäinen. "Scenario analysis for commercial Internet content delivery." info 16, no. 3 (May 6, 2014): 54–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/info-06-2013-0038.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify and analyze the key uncertainties and to construct alternative future scenarios for Internet content delivery. The relative positions and roles of different actors and content delivery technologies in each scenario are then discussed. As traffic volume rapidly grows, the current Internet architecture faces scalability issues. To meet the demand, technical solutions utilizing caching and name-based routing are developed. Design/methodology/approach – This work followed a scenario planning process, and two workshops were organized for identifying the key trends and uncertainties. Industry architecture notation was used to systematically illustrate and compare the constructed scenarios. Findings – Of the 94 forces identified, the revenue model and Internet service provider's (ISP’s) role in content provision were singled out as the two most important uncertainties, upon which four scenarios were constructed. In-network caching technologies are strong candidates in ISP-dominated scenarios. Content delivery networks are more likely outcomes in scenarios, where content providers’ role is significant. Research limitations/implications – The paper focuses on qualitative analysis of scenarios. Utilizing, for instance, system dynamics to model interdependencies between the trends and uncertainties could provide a path toward quantitative analysis. Originality/value – The paper increases understanding of relative positions and roles of different actors and technologies in possible future scenarios. The findings are important, especially for ISPs, content providers and technology vendors. The scenarios can be used to identify desirable futures and strategies to achieve them and to make informed choices in technology design to meet the demands of key actors.
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Reid, Robin. "Performative Script analysis for additional language classrooms." Scenario: A Journal of Performative Teaching, Learning, Research X, no. 1 (January 1, 2016): 49–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.33178/scenario.10.1.4.
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This paper discusses a variation of theatrical rehearsal practice that I adapted for a university level English for Academic Purposes (EAP) English course on which I taught and is also based, in part, on a workshop presentation I gave at the 2013 WATESOL conference in Wellington, New Zealand. The activity and its procedures, which are described in this paper, originated in my experiences and training as an undergraduate in theatre studies and also draws from my subsequent career in the performing arts. While the practice of script analysis is definitely not a new invention, being, as it is, one of the most fundamental activities that modern actors undertake in preparing for rehearsal, I feel this particular procedural variation of the practice is novel for second or additional (L2) language classrooms. I had wanted to experiment with scripted performance in my classrooms for some time, so I designed this activity to be feasible for students without any experience with the performing arts.This paper is arranged as follows: Firstly, I provide a brief background and rationale for the activity. Next, I explain in detail the procedures of the task. Lastly, I will briefly discuss students’ post-task feedback collected from an exploratory study ...
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Wiebe, Keith, Monika Zurek, Steven Lord, Natalia Brzezina, Gnel Gabrielyan, Jessica Libertini, Adam Loch, Resham Thapa-Parajuli, Joost Vervoort, and Henk Westhoek. "Scenario Development and Foresight Analysis: Exploring Options to Inform Choices." Annual Review of Environment and Resources 43, no. 1 (October 17, 2018): 545–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-030109.
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In an increasingly globalized and interconnected world, where social and environmental change occur ever more rapidly, careful futures-oriented thinking becomes crucial for effective decision making. Foresight activities, including scenario development, quantitative modeling, and scenario-guided design of policies and programs, play a key role in exploring options to address socioeconomic and environmental challenges across many sectors and decision-making levels. We take stock of recent methodological developments in scenario and foresight exercises, seek to provide greater clarity on the many diverse approaches employed, and examine their use by decision makers in different fields and at different geographic, administrative, and temporal scales. Experience shows the importance of clearly formulated questions, structured dialog, carefully designed scenarios, sophisticated biophysical and socioeconomic analysis, and iteration as needed to more effectively link the growing scenarios and foresight community with today's decision makers and to better address the social, economic, and environmental challenges of tomorrow.
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Ali, Hassan, Han Phoumin, Steven R. Weller, and Beni Suryadi. "Cost–Benefit Analysis of HELE and Subcritical Coal-Fired Electricity Generation Technologies in Southeast Asia." Sustainability 13, no. 3 (February 2, 2021): 1591. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13031591.
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A large potential exists in the Southeast Asia region for deployment of high-efficiency, low-emission (HELE) electricity generation technologies. A cost–benefit analysis of HELE technologies compared to the less efficient subcritical electricity generation plants is thus carried out to find a persuasive scenario supporting quicker transition from subcritical stations towards HELE technologies in the region. A levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) analysis is carried out for both technologies under four potential policy scenarios. Scenario 1 does not take into consideration any carbon pricing or costs associated with the desulphurization (deSOx) and denitrification (deNOx) facilities. Scenario 2 (Scenario 3) incorporates carbon pricing (costs associated with the deSOx and deNOx facilities), and Scenario 4 includes both carbon pricing and costs associated with the deSOx and deNOx facilities. Under each scenario, a sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the uncertainty affecting the future coal prices. This study demonstrates that HELE technologies are competitive against the subcritical plants under all four scenarios and both the technologies derive benefit from lifetime extensions and low coal prices. It is revealed that future deployments of HELE technologies can be best expedited by factoring in carbon pricing in LCOE costs of coal-fired power plants under Scenario 2.
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Pan, Lei, and Li Xian Xing. "Development Prospect of Chinese Photovoltaic Industry with Scenario Analysis." Applied Mechanics and Materials 672-674 (October 2014): 38–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.672-674.38.
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Currently most researches on photovoltaic are for a single field such as market, policy and technology. This paper with scenario analysis method, considers the impact of various factors to build a variety of possible development scenarios. It forecasts the development trend of Chinese photovoltaic industry with situational analysis. And it raises suggestions of resolution for the different scenarios.
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Gomes, Carlos Francisco Simões, Helder Gomes Costa, and Alexandre P. de Barros. "Sensibility analysis of MCDA using prospective in Brazilian energy sector." Journal of Modelling in Management 12, no. 3 (August 14, 2017): 475–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jm2-01-2016-0005.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present a hybrid modelling that combines concepts and techniques for scenario building together with a Multi-criteria Decision Aid (MCDA) outranking approach. The paper presents a case to illustrate the proposed methodology. Design/methodology/approach The research method is a qualitative and quantitative mixture and it is presented as a study case. Bibliographic research is used to construct the theoretical framework. There are a number of studies that develop a sensibility analysis in MCDA modelling; however, none of them explore the robustness of the MCDA solution with use of scenarios variation. Findings The methodology allows the criteria that must be taken into account, according to the decision makers’ values and preferences. It is interesting to note that, depending on the scenario, different weights were applied for each criterion, and the performances of alternatives under each criterion has changed as well. Practical implications This need arises in decision problems that are susceptible to the influence of scenario variation. Originality/value This proposal was applied to a real case that has taken into account six alternatives, with a prospective analysis of three scenarios, evaluated by four criteria. The authors use prospective scenarios to choose the criterion weights and alternatives evaluation.
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Davidovsky, Anatoly G., and Natalya V. Lapitskaya. "Social consequences of the education digital transformation in the conditions of the coronacrisis." Journal of the Belarusian State University. Sociology, no. 2 (June 29, 2022): 56–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.33581/2521-6821-2022-2-56-65.
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A bioinspired quasi-molecular scenario analysis algorithm has been developed, on the basis of which seven scenarios of the social consequences of the digital transformation of education, as well as five scenarios of the development of the social consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, have been proposed. The scenario approach is an effective tool for system analysis and forecasting of various variants of social activity of Internet users in the conditions of the coronacrisis.
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Kanugrahan, Satria Putra, Dzikri Firmansyah Hakam, and Herry Nugraha. "Techno-Economic Analysis of Indonesia Power Generation Expansion to Achieve Economic Sustainability and Net Zero Carbon 2050." Sustainability 14, no. 15 (July 23, 2022): 9038. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14159038.
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Indonesia’s power generation roadmap aspires to achieve 23%, 28%, and 31% of power from renewable energy by 2025, 2038, and 2050, respectively. This study presents a technoeconomic analysis of Indonesia’s power generation development plans using the LEAP model in the post-COVID-19 period, with a focus on achieving the renewable target. In this study, four scenarios were modeled: business as usual (BAU), cost optimization (CO), national plan (NP), and zero-carbon (ZC). The BAU scenario is based on the PLN Electricity Business Plan 2019–2028, which does not include a target for renewable energy. The CO scenario aims to meet the renewable energy mandate at the lowest possible cost. The NP scenario aims to achieve renewable energy, with an additional natural gas target of 22% by 2025 and 25% by 2038. The ZC scenario aims to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2050 at the lowest possible cost. In comparison to the other scenarios, the BAU scenario has the highest total cost of power production, with a total of 180.51 billion USD by 2050. The CO scenario has the lowest total cost of production with a total of 89.21 billion USD; however, it may not be practical to implement.