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BARONE, ANTONIO. "Regenerating Nature to regenerate Communities? A first approach on a rural area: the case of the Union of Valconca Municipalities." Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10281/331436.
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Questo lavoro di ricerca ha inteso esplorare il ruolo ed i futuri possibili, in un’ottica di sviluppo sostenibile, dei territori rurali. Per raggiungere questo obbiettivo, l’attività di ricerca si è concentrata su un territorio a vocazione rurale della provincia di Rimini. In particolare si è proceduto ad un inquadramento del territorio tramite interviste semi-strutturate alla popolazione e analisi dell’uso del suolo attraverso tecniche di remote sensing. Si è proceduto quindi ad una mappatura tramite “parere di esperti” della fornitura e della domanda di alcuni servizi ecosistemici presenti nel territorio, evidenziando i punti critici. Sulla base di queste analisi si è quindi proceduto all’individuazione di uno scenario “rigenerativo” per il territorio considerato, basato sull’adozione di pratiche di agricoltura biologica. Si sono analizzati in maniera qualitativa gli efffetti di queste pratiche su alcuni servizi ecosistemici, mentre in maniera quantitativa gli effetti relativi al sequestro di carbonio nei suoli. Alcune argomentazioni sull'importanza di rigenerare i servizi ecosistemici e sugli effetti “sistemici” delle pratiche di agricoltura biologica concludono il lavoro.The aim of this research work was to explore the role and possible futures of rural territories with a view to sustainable development. To achieve this objective, the research activity focused on a rural territory in the province of Rimini. In particular, the territory was surveyed by means of semi-structured interviews with the population and analysis of land use through remote sensing techniques. The supply of and demand for certain ecosystem services in the area was then mapped by means of an "expert opinion", highlighting the critical points. On the basis of these analyses, a "regenerative" scenario was identified for the area in question, based on the adoption of organic farming practices.The effects of these practices on some ecosystem services were analysed qualitatively, while the effects on soil carbon sequestration were analysed quantitatively. Some arguments on the importance of regenerating ecosystem services and on the 'systemic' effects of organic farming practices conclude the work.
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McCahon, Oliver Colin. "Noninferior set scenario analysis." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Business Administration, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/4369.
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Although many Mathematical Programming techniques have been developed for application to decision making under uncertainty, these techniques are based on three implicit assumptions. The first is that probabilities can be determined for the outcomes of the uncertain parameters, the second is that the decision maker is risk neutral, and the third is that all of the decision maker's concerns can be included in the formulation. While there are many decision making situations for which these assumptions are appropriate, there are many other situations for which they are not. In particular, these assumptions are seldom supportable for strategic decision making problems. Strategic decision making must consider possible future events that have seldom, if ever, occurred before, and for which probabilities cannot be determined. Because the situation will occur only once, and the decision will have a large impact, the decision ma.ker is unlikely to be risk neutral. Finally, the decision makers will often have concerns that cannot be represented in a mathematical programming formulation.
In this work we present an approach to decision making under uncertainty that relaxes the three assumptions listed above. We assume that the uncertain future can be described as a small set of scenarios. These scenarios can be considered to have separate, competing objectives, because decisions that prepare well for one scenario generally prepare poorly for the others. The problem is formulated as a multi-objective optimisation problem, and a set of non-dominated decisions is found. The decision maker can choose a decision from this set according to his/her attitudes to risk, and to account for other requirements that cannot be represented in a mathematical programming formulation. This approach is developed for problems with continuous variables, and then extended to problems that include binary variables.
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Santarcangelo, Vito. "Visual Behavior Analysis in Retail Scenario." Doctoral thesis, Università di Catania, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10761/4135.
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The retail world is today highly competitive and has seen its logics completely revolutionized by the introduction of e-commerce that have prompted a reaction from the retail market, requiring greater attention to the consumer. We therefore moved from the world of traditional marketing (generic flyer) to that of 1to1 marketing (specific attention to the customer, profiling and personalization of the assortment offer). In this context the need arises to introduce innovative tools that can allow the physical sales spaces to be kept competitive, interacting more with the customer in order to create a more relevant commercial proposal. As a consequence, the computer vision represented one of the possible means to carry out the behavioral analysis of the consumer useful for dynamically adapting the assortment proposal.
DOOH (Digital Out Of Home) in its most widespread form of interactive point-of sale kiosks is one of the best tools to get in touch with the customer, create a synergy with him, listen to his needs in order to improve the offer, the level of service and therefore customer satisfaction. Next to DOOH, it is necessary to introduce further and time-continuous monitoring tools, which map the entire customer's shopping experience into the point of sale. For this purpose the egocentric vision is introduced through the use of cam narratives on board the trolleys, which allow a timely story of the consumer, called Visual Market Basket Analysis (evolution of Market Basket Analysis), which generates process functional alerts to the improvement of
the service offered. The story of these approaches is provided in this PhD thesis, which tells the three-year course carried out, its experiments and possible future developments.
This study has been conducted thanks to the support of Centro Studi S.r.l., a sister company of a privately owned consumer goods distribution company called Orizzonti Holding Group, located in southern Italy. The study has been implemented through an industrial application approach, in a real context (Futura Supermarkets). Consequently, the PhD thesis has considered the typical difficulties of a challenging environment, starting from the creation and acquisition of a dataset to the integration of the approach in the current business processes.
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Pidhrushnyi, D. O. "Scenario analysis model of economic security components." Thesis, Sumy State University, 2015. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/40837.
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Tendencies of recent years have shown that economic security is the
most important part of the sustainable development of nations and the
world in general. That is why the forefront every state puts improves their
economic situation, their international resource dependencies and explores
new methods of management economic situation.
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CALISAYA, EDGAR SARMIENTO. "ANALYSIS OF NATURAL LANGUAGE SCENARIOS." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2016. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=28193@1.
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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIROCOORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR
PROGRAMA DE SUPORTE À PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO DE INSTS. DE ENSINO
PROGRAMA DE EXCELENCIA ACADEMICA
A análise de requisitos desempenha um papel fundamental no processo de desenvolvimento de software. Neste sentido, representações de cenários baseados em linguagem natural são muitas vezes utilizados para descrever especificações de requisitos de software (SRS). Cenários descritos usando linguagem natural podem ser ambíguos e, às vezes, imprecisos. Este problema é parcialmente devido ao fato de que os relacionamentos entre os cenários são raramente representados explicitamente. Como os cenários são utilizados como entrada para as actividades subsequentes do processo de desenvolvimento de software (SD), é muito importante facilitar a sua análise; especialmente para detectar defeitos devido a informações erradas ou falta de informação. Este trabalho propõe uma abordagem baseada em Redes de Petri e técnicas de Processamento de Linguagem Natural como uma forma eficaz para analisar os cenários adquiridos, e que toma descrições textuais de cenários (em conformidade com um metamodelo definido neste trabalho) como entrada e gera um relatório de análise como saída. Para facilitar a análise automática, os cenários são transformados em Redes de Petri (Lugar/Transição) equivalentes. Os cenários e suas Redes de Petri resultantes podem ser analisados automaticamente para avaliar algumas propriedades relacionadas à desambiguidade, completeza, consistência e corretude. Os defeitos identificados podem ser rastreados até os cenários, permitindo a sua revisão. Nós também discutimos como desambiguidade, completeza, consistência e corretude das SRSs baseadas em cenários podem ser decompostas em propriedades relacionadas, e definimos heurísticas para encontrar indicadores de defeitos que prejudicam estas propriedades. Avaliamos nosso trabalho, aplicando a nossa abordagem de análise em quatro estudos de caso. Essa avaliação compara os resultados obtidos pela nossa abordagem automatizada contra os resultados obtidos por um processo de inspeção e com trabalhos relacionados.
Requirements analysis plays a key role in the software development process. Natural language-based scenario representations are often used for writing software requirements specifications (SRS). Scenarios written using natural language may be ambiguous, and, sometimes, inaccurate. This problem is partially due to the fact that relationships among scenarios are rarely represented explicitly. As scenarios are used as input to subsequent activities of the software development process (SD), it is very important to enable their analysis; especially to detect defects due to wrong information or missing information. This work proposes a Petri-Net and Natural Language Processing (NLP) based approach as an effective way to analyze the acquired scenarios, which takes textual description of scenarios (conform to a metamodel defined in this work) as input and generates an analysis report as output. To enable the automated analysis, scenarios are translated into equivalent Place/Transition Petri-Nets. Scenarios and their resulting Petri-Nets can be automatically analyzed to evaluate some properties related to unambiguity, completeness, consistency and correctness. The identified defects can be traced back to the scenarios, allowing their revision. We also discuss how unambiguity, completeness, consistency and correctness of scenario-based SRSs can be decomposed in related properties, and define heuristics for searching defect indicators that hurt these properties. We evaluate our work by applying our analysis approach to four case studies. The evaluation compares the results achieved by our tool-supported approach, with an inspection based approach and with related work.
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Mahmoud, Mohammed. "Scenario Development for Water Resources Decision-making." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/193925.
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With ever-increasing pressures on limited water supplies in arid regions, water managers are forced to make critical decisions about the management of water resources - sometimes under considerable uncertainty. Given the large number of stresses on existing water systems, proper management requires the consideration of all different factors that may contribute to water use and consumption. As water management becomes more focused on the issue of sustainability, processes traditionally thought of as non-water-related and irrelevant to water management are now becoming very pertinent. In particular, the consequences of changes in climate, population, land use, and various types of water usage (agricultural, environmental, domestic, and urban) are of considerable interest.With increasing uncertainty about the future, conventional methods of decision-analysis are increasingly unable to suitably quantify the future impacts of policy decisions, and they are also unable to provide a clear contrast between impacts of historical policy decisions and possible future management decisions. An analytical approach that is sensitive to qualitative effects of water-related decision-making will therefore be more useful towards improving management practices. Scenario development is one such tool that can be used to examine future implications of water management, and thereby shed light on the potential consequences of implementing different operational and institutional policies. The objective of this work is to propose a formal scenario development methodology applicable to water resources management issues. This framework is applied and evaluated on a regional scale for the U.S. southwest and on a local scale for the state of Arizona.The research presented here is comprised of several components; (i) a review of existing literature on scenarios, scenario studies, and scenario applications; (ii) a retrospective analysis of water management-related scenario applications that examines the implications of scenario-influenced strategies previously implemented in Arizona, (iii) the adoption of a formal scenario development approach for water resource issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S., utilizing an example application in the Upper San Pedro Basin in southern Arizona, and (iv) a comprehensive application of the scenario development process to the Verde River Watershed in northern Arizona through a simplified small-scale scenario case study approach.
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Ljungström, Erica. "ISAT : Interactive Scenario Analysis Tool for financial forecasting." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för informations- och kommunikationsteknik (ICT), 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-177128.
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Målet för denna studie har varit att skapa en första version för ett verktyg i vilket analytiker inom finans kan skapa sina långsiktiga scenarion och väga olika rikser samt möjligheter mot varandra.Idén till ett sådant verktyg har funnits inom företaget i flera år, men de tidigare idéerna har varit för specifika för att kunna användas. Detta har främst berott på tidsbrist samt att de som utvecklat dem inte har haft tillgång till en bra utvecklingsmiljö.De enda begränsningarna för verktyget har varit 1) ”Det behöer kunna visa inverkan av manipuleringar”, 2) ”det behöer finnas såmycket funktionalitet som möjligt, utan att det finns knappar överallt” och 3) ”det få inte ädra nåot av input datan”.Eftersom dessa är abstrakta specificationer behövdes mock-ups, observationer och användbarhetstest för att kunna skapa ett verktyg som förenklar de mest använda manipulationerna. Verktyget måste också låta användaren enkelt ticka i och ur sina manipulationer så att dessa inte behöver göras om varje gång användaren vill testa ett nytt utfall.Observationerna och testerna har visat att användarna jobbar på olika sätt, och därför behövde verktyget vara flexibelt. Detta innebar också att det behövdes både generella samt specifika manipulationer. De visade också att verktyget behövde delas in i två delar, en för att skapa rapporter och en för att visa rapporten. Detta då rapporteringsprocessen ej får ändras.Fokus för denna studie har varit MDI, Människa-datorinteraktion. Detta innebär att den färdiga produkten bör vara intuitiv och väldigt enkel att lära sig att använda för användarna. Detta kan vara svårt då användarna arbetar på mycket olika sätt.Den färdiga produkten för denna studie har lyckats klara alla de mål som satts upp. En mock-up som gjorde användarna nyfikna på programmet, skapades i Java. Det bestämdes därmed att detta var det programmeringsspråk som skulle användas. Ett användargränssnitt som var enkel, men samtidigt hade en komplex funktionalitet lades till.Detta gjorde att användarna frågade sig själva ”Kan det verkligen vara såhä enkelt?” samt ”Varfö har vi inte gjort detta innan?”. Tillslut skapades en fungerande produkt som var både enkel att använda samt att den gjorde många av de enkla beräkningarna åt analytikern.Den enda del som ej blivit fullt implementerad innan slutet för denna studie är mallen för de Excel rapporter som ska skapas av verktyget. Denna del av verktyget utformades av en ekonom som vet vilka grafer som kan vara intressanta att ta med i en rapport. Nu, när verktyget genererar en rapport, genereras endast de grafer som syns i verktyget, totalen för scenariona (uppdelade i olika kategorier) samt alla de manipuleringsrader som skapats för de tre olika scenariona.The goal with this study has been to create a first version for a tool in which financial analysts can create their long-term scenarios and weigh different risks and opportunities against each other.The idea to such a tool has been around for years within the company, but the earlier ideas were too specific to be usable. This has mainly been due to the lack of time and available tools to realize the ideas.The only restrictions for the tool have been 1) “It needs to show the impact of manipulations”, 2) “it needs as much functionality as possible without having buttons all over it” and 3) “it should not alter any of the input data”.Because these are quite abstract specifications, mock-ups, observations and usability tests have been used to create a tool that simplifies the most used manipulations and enables the user to tick in and out their manipulations so that the manipulation does not have to be redone every time the user wants to test a new outcome.The observations and tests have shown that the users work very differently from each other, and so, the tool needed to be very flexible. This meant that there needed to be both general and specific manipulations which are based on general formulas. It also showed that the tool needed to be split into two parts, one for creating and one for showing reports, because the reporting process should not be altered.The focus of this study has been HCI, Human Computer Interaction. This means that the finished product should be intuitive and also easy to learn how to operate by the users which could be difficult when the users do work in different ways. The resulting product of this study has reached all of the goals. A mock-up that got the users interested in the program was produced in Java, which decided the programming language. A GUI that was simple, yet had complex functionality was added. It made users ask themselves “Could it really be this easy?” and “Why have we not done this before?”. And, at last, a working product were produced, that was both simple to operate and at the same time did a lot of the calculations for the analyst.The only part of the product that has not been fully implemented before the endof this study is the template in which the Excel Report is supposed to be generated. This part of the tool was taken care of by an economist that knew which graphs that could be interesting to create a report of. Now, the tool generates a report with only the graphs that are shown in the tool, the totals for the scenarios (split into different categories) and all of the adjustment rows for the three scenarios.
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Badger, M. "Stormwater disconnection : transient scenario analysis of intervention flexibility." Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2018. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/22562/.
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Urban drainage networks protect people, society, and the environment from the hazards presented by domestic and industrial effluent, and urban stormwater run-off. However, urban drainage networks are financially and carbon intensive, and their failure results in damage to people and the environment. The likelihood and magnitude of failure is anticipated to increase in the future as a result of pressures including climate change and urbanisation. The rate and extent of these pressures manifesting is uncertain. Sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) are structural measures that can be retrofitted to replace or augment an urban drainage network, reducing the likelihood of failure now and in the future. Adaptation of infrastructure to encroaching future pressures requires infrastructure constructed in the present to be flexible. An existing method for assessing flexibility is combined with transient scenario analysis to enable the flexibility of conventional solutions, and source-control and regional-control retrofit SuDS interventions to be compared in two real-world case-study catchments. A new multi-criteria assessment framework is proposed for the comparison of these interventions. A method for distributing retrofit SuDS within an urban drainage catchment is developed from first principles. It is a hydraulic modelling method based on identifying potentially disparate locations within an urban drainage catchment that possess similar times of concentration to a point of interest within the network. The concept of the efficiency of stormwater disconnection is introduced. The developed method is shown to be more effective at identifying efficient disconnection locations than existing methods in two real-world case study catchments.
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Riaz, Shariq. "Generic Market Modelling for Future Grid Scenario Analysis." Thesis, The University of Sydney, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/18121.
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Power systems worldwide are moving away from being dominated by large-scale synchronous generation and passive consumers. Instead, in the future, new actors on both the generation and the load side will play an increasingly significant role. On the generation side, there are renewable energy resources (RES) such as wind generation (WG), photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar thermal (CST). On the load side, there are demand response (DR), energy storage and price responsive users equipped with a small-scale PV-battery system (called prosumers). The two sides will together shape future grids. However, if connected at a large scale without proper consideration of their effect, they can also jeopardise the reliability and security of electricity supply. For example, the addition of non-synchronous RES will jeopardise the frequency response of the future grids, while the intermittency and variability of RES threats the existing model of electricity supply (supply following demand), complicating balancing and stressing future grids’ ramping capabilities. On the other hand, the inclusion of DR, prosumers and storage without proper consideration of the implications can cause significant changes to the demand profiles and may result in new stresses such as secondary peaks or excessive ramps. In summary, balancing, stability (frequency, voltage, transient) and ultimately reliability are affected by the changes introduced to the future grids’ technology mix. Given that the lifespan of power system assets is well over fifty years, laying out a roadmap to future grid development in an economical fashion without risking its security is a challenging task. The uncertainty of cost, availability and quality of new technologies requires power system planners and policy-makers to evaluate the feasibility and viability of future grids for a diverse range of technology options. To this end, a rigorous and systematic approach is developed in this dissertation to analyse the implications of prosumers, storage and CST on the balancing and stability of future grids. The best features of all these approaches are combined and presented in a single coherent framework. Computation time improvement techniques are then deployed to improve the computational efficiency and solution accuracy. Taken as a whole, the tool will fill the gap to explore the validity of emerging technologies to tackle balancing, stability, security and reliability issues, over a diverse scope of uncertain premises. The tool is developed for an approach to future grids studies called scenario analysis. Traditionally, power systems are planned based on a handful of the most critical scenarios with an aim to find an optimal generation and/or transmission plan. In contradistinction, scenario analysis involves analysing possible evolutionary pathways to facilitate informed decision making by policy-makers and system planners. Specifically, the primary aim of future grids studies is to deal with the uncertainty of long-term decision making and providing outcomes that are technically possible, although explicit costing might be considered. To this end, for any future grids stability framework, the market model is a critical bottleneck. Existing future grids studies mostly look at simple balancing, ignore network constraints and include most of the emerging technologies in an ad hoc fashion. These simplifications are made to combat the high computation time requirement of accurate approaches. Against this backdrop, this dissertation presents: i) a novel optimisation-based models to capture the effects of prosumers (Chapter 2, 3); ii) co-optimise dispatch of PV and CST aggregation to reduce ramping stress on the conventional generators (Chapter 4); iii) efficiently implemented market-based dispatch (Chapter 5); iv) framework for frequency performance assessment of future grids (Chapter 6). In more detail, first, Chapter 2 and 3 develop a novel approach to explicitly model prosumers’ demand in market dispatch (production cost) models. The key novelty of the method is its ability to capture the impact of prosumers without going into specific market structure or control mechanisms, which are computationally expensive. The model is formulated as a bi-level program in which the upper-level unit commitment (UC) problem minimises the total generation cost and the lower-level problem maximises prosumers’ aggregate self-consumption. Unlike the existing bi-level optimisation frameworks that focus on the interaction between the wholesale market and an aggregator, the coupling is through the prosumers’ demand, not through the electricity price. That renders the proposed model market structure agnostic, making it suitable for future grids studies where the market structure is potentially unknown. This model addresses some critical questions such as, How much flexibility can prosumer provide to help with large-scale RES integration? Flexibility is the key to achieve a high RES penetration. One of the major problem in the integration of RES is their intermittent and variable nature. Concentrated solar thermal (CST) presents an excellent resource with inherent flexibility. In contrast to Chapter 2 and 3 (exploring flexibility through DSM), Chapter 4 examines flexibility options from a generation end. In particular, it proposes an RES aggregation (REA) scheme aiming to co-optimise the dispatch of intermittent and dispatchable RES. The principal aim is to keep in check the ramping stress imposed on the conventional generators due to the RES integration. A Stackelberg game is used to capture the interaction between an independent system operator (ISO) and the REA when the ISO tries to minimise the generation cost, while REA seeks to maximise its revenue. This approach also highlights the potential of a ramping market, as proposed by some US studies. In Chapter 5, the utility storage proposed in Chapter 2, prosumers model proposed in Chapter 3, the dispatch model of CST developed in Chapter 4 and inertia constraint detailed in Chapter 6 are combined into a single coherent framework. The addition of these emerging technologies in the energy market model significantly increases the computation burden. Also, to allow for a subsequent stability assessment, an accurate representation of the number of online generation units is required, which affects the power system inertia and the reactive power support capability. This renders a fully-fledged market model computationally intractable, so in Chapter 5 we deploy unit clustering, a rolling-horizon optimisation approach and constraint clipping to improve the computational efficiency. Together, these comprise a computationally efficient market simulation tool (MST) suitable for future grid stability analysis. Finally, developed MST is used in Chapter 6 for a comprehensive frequency performance assessment of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). First, an assessment of minimum inertia requirements is presented, followed by a framework for frequency performance assessment of future grids. The maximum non-synchronous instantaneous range from a frequency performance point of view is established for the NEM. Also, to alleviate the deteriorating effects of the high RES penetration on frequency performance, different technical solutions are proposed and discussed. These efforts will empower policy-makers and system planners with the information on safe penetration levels of different technologies while ensuring reliability and security of future grids.
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Harikrishnan, Yamini. "Performance analysis of vehicular networks for motorway scenario." Thesis, Swansea University, 2011. https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa42234.
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Imamoglu, Berker Yalin. "Operation Of Cascade Dams Considering Various Scenarios And Financial Analysis Of Scenarios." Master's thesis, METU, 2013. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12615413/index.pdf.
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In assuring the energy supply of Turkey, hydroelectric energy plays one of the most important roles in
plans formulated to realize equilibrium between energy production and consumption. Hydroelectric
power plants on Murat River, a tributary of Euphrates, is a part of the development plan
for energy production.
Operation of four dams in cascade on Murat River are simulated by using program package HECResSim.
For this purpose, ten scenarios are formulated to utilize the hydraulic potential of Murat
River between the elevations of 870 m 1225 m. This study provides detailed financial analyses of
scenarios and shows how HEC-ResSim program can be used in formulation of alternative scenarios.
Electric energy storage requirement due to the rising demand for peaking power is creating a
completely new market value, which is also increasing the attractiveness of pumped storage power
plants. The results of the simulation performed in Scenario 10 in which two pumped storage power
plants are considered have 15% higher internal rate of return value than the other scenarios with
conventional turbines. Results demonstrate the increasing attractiveness of the cascade system with
reversible pump turbines.
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Ahmed, Hameed, and Ye Xiaohong. "The Role Scenarios of EU in the World of 2020 : a Comparative Perspective Between European and US based Think Tanks." Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Management and Economics, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-2874.
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This paper aims to tell out a “what next” question of the future scenarios that the European Union (EU), as a security community, is most likely to face in its development as a world power up to the year 2020. The EU is a rapidly evolving concept consolidating with comprehensive internal and external dimension and implication. Key concepts such as power, security, global governance and international order have been used as the underlying themes that will determine the course of the future. In this context Neo-realism, Constructivism and Security Community’s model have been used as the theoretical framework to examine how EU’s role in the international system can be analyzed in the conceptual framework of security. This is followed by a discussion on the concurrent ESDP instruments initiated by the new Constitution as a key momentum of security community buildup internally. To broaden understanding and to get a variety of perspectives, research reports and policy papers of some transatlantic think tanks were analyzed. While multi- perspectives of some prominent think tanks were reviewed, analyzed and discussed, the opinions of policy makers at the United Nations Head Quarters, New York, were also explored to reflect on how EU’s role in international affairs is being perceived in the corridors of power, both concurrently and futuristically. These views were consequently augmented by attending General Assembly and Security Council sessions during September 2004 to January 2005 to observe what sorts of power and influence EU exerts in the contemporary international system and what potential it has for the future. Based on these findings, the paper identified three scenarios that EU is most likely to face in its efforts to be an international power. The paper concluded with the understanding that EU has vision and potential to be a power in the international system futuristically, which can be further enhanced if EU enhances its military capabilities and improves its power perception in the eyes of various stakeholders. However since the international system is volatile, its future role cannot be predicted with accuracy, only alternative options can be identified. EU’s roles are dependent upon the degree of success of the integration process internally and the structural interaction with other major actors in the international system. Whereas EU may enhance its role up to the year 2020, it may not enter into a power conflict with other major powers. However it will play its role comparable with the magnitude of its size, power and influence to manage the international system, futuristically in an improvised way.
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Mandelli, Diego. "SCENARIO CLUSTERING AND DYNAMIC PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT." The Ohio State University, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1306438099.
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Vasilevskaya, Anna. "Port intermodal transportation : Port of Stockholm hinterland scenario analysis." Thesis, KTH, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-192444.
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Population growth, urbanization, globalization of human migration, consumerism; technical and information technology development - are just a few trends of the modern society that set challenges to transport geography. To meet growing market demands new technologies and services were developed. With the introduction of ISO containers shipping performance got a tremendous boost for development. Container standardization made it possible to unify transportation and transshipment technologies, to rationalize ship space utilization and develop sustainable logistic chains between countries and continents. Intermodal transportation is proven to be profitable and sustainable on the long distances, while on short distances road transportation is still more attractive and is continued to be used for high varieties of purposes. This master thesis is an attempt to show that intermodal transport may be successfully used for some special cases of short-distance transportation. One of these special cases is intermodal transportation from ports located in urban areas. The aim of this project was to analyze feasibility of the intermodal short distance transportation in regards to the port of Stockholm. For this purpose, the current logistic system of the port of Stockholm was analyzed and an intermodal system that can be used for the future port operation was evaluated. The goal of the case study conducted in the thesis was to understand how efficiency and environmental factors of port logistics network may be improved. To achieve these goals an extensive analysis was performed concerning current demand and flow distributions, available and proposed infrastructure in the region.
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CUOCO, EDUARDO. "Stakeholder involvement in strategic decision making for the organic food and farming sector in Europe." Doctoral thesis, Università Politecnica delle Marche, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11566/256734.
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Lo scopo di questo studio di dottorato è quello di analizzare e valutare il coinvolgimento delle parti interessate (stakeholder) nei processi decisionali strategici per il settore dell'alimentazione e dell'agricoltura biologica in Europa. La tesi presenta tre casi studio.
Il primo caso di studio indaga, con l’utilizzo della metodologia Q di Stephenson, le prospettive degli stakeholder rispetto ad un futuro desiderato, una visione condivisa, per il settore biologico in Europa.
Il secondo si concentra sulla progettazione di possibili scenari sviluppati in modo partecipativo tramite il coinvolgimento di esperti qualificati.
I terzo caso di studio analizza il coinvolgimento delle parti interessate nella costituzione e sviluppo della Piattaforma Tecnologia Europea per la ricerca e l'innovazione del Biologico e su come questa abbia avuto un impatto sulle politiche Europee di Ricerca and Innovazione.
Le organizzazioni coinvolte nei casi studio sono le organizzazioni più rappresentative del settore biologico in Europa e coinvolgono una vasta gamma di membri:
• La prima, IFOAM EU, associa organizzazioni di base e rappresentanti del settore, dalle aziende agricole alle Piccole Medie Imprese.
• La seconda, TP Organics, coinvolge attivamente organizzazioni europee (ONG / gruppi di interesse), imprese, organizzazioni della società civile, ricercatori ed enti pubblici a livello nazionale ed internazionale attivi nel campo dell'agricoltura biologica e dello sviluppo sostenibile.
In conclusione, il successo del coinvolgimento delle parti interessate nei processi decisionali dipende considerevolmente dalla metodologia applicata per coinvolgere i partecipanti e dal modo in cui gli obiettivi sono definiti. Gli approcci al processo decisionale strategico esplorati in questo studio hanno fornito interessanti modelli di partecipazione e raccomandazioni che possono essere applicate allo sviluppo del settore biologico in futuro.The aim of this PhD study was to analyse and evaluate stakeholder involvement in strategic decision making for the organic food and farming sector. It presents three case studies. The first case study investigates stakeholder perspectives on a desired future for the organic sector in Europe in order to develop a shared vision using the Stephenson’s Q methodology. The second case study focused on how to support the organic sector in designing possible futures using participatory scenario analysis based on qualified expert assessment. The third case study analysed stakeholder involvement in the establishment and development of the European Technology Platform for Organic Food and Farming Research and Innovation – TP Organics – and its impact on European Research and Innovation policies. The organisations involved in the case studies are the most representative organisations for the organic food and farming sector in Europe and involve a broad range of members: • The first, IFOAM EU, has a membership of grass-roots organisations as well as representatives of the organic food and farming business sector (from producers to SMEs) • The second, TP Organics, actively engages EU umbrella organisations (NGOs/Interest groups), businesses, civil society organisations, researchers and national and EU-level public actors in the field of organic agriculture and sustainable development. In conclusion, the success of stakeholder involvement in decision making processes depends very much on the methodology applied to involve the participants and on how well the objectives are defined. The approaches to strategic decision making explored in this study have provided interesting models of stakeholder participation and have resulted in recommendations which can be applied to the development of the organic food and farming sector in the future.
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Akhmetov, Artur. "Analysis of attack scenarios on chemical facilities." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2017.
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In current work the security of chemical facilities is addressed with regard to the elevated terrorist threat due to recent wave of terrorist attacks. Security Vulnerability Assessment using the ANSI/API Standard 780 methodology is conducted. The methodology is applied on an arbitrarily selected oil refinery in Europe as defined in a case study. The facility is characterised in terms of hazards and critical assets. In the course of the assessment 5 attack scenarios are developed. Forensic data about adversary weaponry and capabilities is collected. Vulnerabilities of the selected oil refinery are revealed. The consequences of the formulated scenarios are assessed based on the blast effects of probable improvised explosive devices (IEDs). The blast waves produced by IEDs are simulated in CONWEP© software. The ‘overpressure vs range’ and ‘penetration vs range’ graphs are extracted as a result of the simulation. Afterwards, the escalation thresholds with respect to different types of equipment are applied in order to verify further knock-on effects. Moreover, several overpressure values corresponding to catastrophic rupture, steel support breakage, deformation of vessel are employed in order to estimate the impact zones. Injuries, probable fatalities and glass wounds stand-off zones are estimated. As for human injuries and structural damage, probit analysis is carried out and a percentage of exposed people and buildings is evaluated. Finally, a set of security countermeasures with regard to uncovered vulnerabilities is proposed.
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Zhou, Xinan. "Cellular data traffic, analysis, models, and scenarios." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape3/PQDD_0020/MQ57756.pdf.
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Barros, Pedro Leandro Antunes. "Determination and analysis of PRIIP performance scenarios." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/19640.
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Mestrado em Mathematical FinanceO número cada vez maior de investidores não profissionais a adquirir produtos financeiros complexos levou a União Europeia a adotar regulamentos sobre como os PRIIP lhes devem ser apresentados e como ajudá-los a tomar decisões de investimento informadas através da comparação de produtos oferecidos por diferentes fornecedores. Estes regulamentos - n. 1286/2014 e Regulamento Delegado 2017/653 - apresentam as regras de como avaliar os produtos no que toca ao seu nível de risco, desempenho futuro, custos e como apresentar todas estas métricas num único documento - o Documento de Informação Fundamental (DIF) - de modo a garantir que as instituições financeiras que vendem produtos financeiros atuam em benefício dos interesses dos investidores. Produtos cambiais, produtos financeiros que permitem duas contrapartes adquirir ou vender moeda estrangeira, fazem parte dos produtos para os quais se devem apresentar DIF aos investidores no âmbito dos Regulamentos supramencionados. Se um investidor não profissional desejar assumir uma posição longa ou curta numa moeda estrangeira, o banco deve-lhe fornecer DIF do produto que melhor se aplica aos seus interesses. O DIF deve ser gerado e atualizado tendo em conta: o par de moeda a transacionar; os dados que servem como base de cálculo do nível de risco, dos custos e do desempenho futuro; a maturidade do acordo; e qual a moeda a ser comprada ou vendida em concreto. Este Trabalho leva a cabo o estudo e análise do conteúdo dos DIF referente ao desempenho de produtos cambiais para quatro cenários distintos: stress, desfavorável, moderado e favorável.
The crescent number of non-professional investors taking positions on complicated financial products has led the European Union to adopt regulations about how PRIIPs must be presented to their potential buyers and aid them in making informed investment decisions through comparison amongst a diverse supply of products. These regulations - No 1286/2014 and the Commission Delegated Regulation 2017/653 - present rules on how to assess key pieces of information about the products' types market risk-wise, their risk levels, performance expectations, cost profiles and how to provide all these metrics in a single document - the Key Information Document (KID) - to insure that the institutions that sell investment products act on behalf of the investors' best interests. Foreign Exchange products, financial instruments that allow two counterparties to acquire or dispose of positions on foreign currency, fall in the scope of the aforementioned regulations. Every time a non-professional investor wishes to have a long or short position on a currency, the bank must provide them with the KID of the product that best suits their interest. The KID must be generated and updated according to: the currency pair being traded; the data that serves as a base for market risk, performances and cost calculations; the maximum tenor of the deal; and what currency from the pair is being purchased or sold. This report carries out the study and analysis of the KID's content referring to Foreign Exchange products' performances under four different scenarios: stress, unfavorable, moderate and favorable.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Zhou, Weifeng. "Resilience analysis of nuclear fuel cycle scenarios." Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020GRALI055.
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Les systèmes du cycle du combustible nucléaire, composés de réacteurs, de divers combustibles et de différentes installations de cycle, sont complexes et en constante évolution. Grâce à leur capacité à faire des projections de stratégies industrielles et à évaluer les impacts associés sur le système du cycle du combustible nucléaire, les scénarios électronucléaires sont considérés comme un outil puissant d'aide à la décision. Les études de scénarios aident les décideurs à identifier les forces et les faiblesses des différentes stratégies d'évolution d’un parc nucléaire et puis à proposer des trajectoires d'évolution possibles pour l'industrie nucléaire en fonction des contraintes de la physique, de l'économie, de l'industrie, etc.Cependant, les études de scénarios sont généralement soumises à différents types d'incertitudes, en particulier la soi-disant « incertitude profonde » (« deep uncertainty » en anglais). Ce concept fait référence à des « inconnues inconnues », auxquelles les résultats de l'étude de scénarios ne conviennent pas. En effet, sous l'impact des incertitudes profondes, c'est-à-dire les disruptions, les trajectoires proposées par les études de scénarios peuvent devenir invalides : elles ne satisfont plus aux contraintes du scénario.Afin de rendre les trajectoires valides à nouveau après une disruption due à l'incertitude, la première possibilité est d'étudier la stratégie de résistance. La stratégie de résistance consiste à trouver des trajectoires qui restent valides sous l'impact de l'incertitude sans réajustements exogènes des trajectoires. Cependant, les capacités de résistance des scénarios sont limitées : la résistance n'est adaptée qu'aux incertitudes à faible impact, alors que l'impact d'une incertitude profonde est généralement fort.Comme solution complémentaire à la stratégie de résistance, nous proposons d'utiliser les stratégies de résilience. Les stratégies de résilience consistent à utiliser des mesures préconçues, appelées « leviers », pour réajuster la trajectoire lorsque la stratégie de résistance est insuffisante. Nous cherchons à utiliser l'effet des réajustements exogènes des trajectoires, qui sont introduits à travers les leviers, pour contrebalancer l'impact de la disruption et garder la trajectoire valide. Pour évaluer la résilience des scénarios, nous avons développé un cadre d'analyse de résilience, basé sur l'algorithme SUR (Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction).Nous avons appliqué la stratégie de résilience développée à deux problèmes de scénario dans lesquels un parc nucléaire français simplifié avec une réduction de puissance incertaine est considéré. Pour définir la validité des trajectoires, nous avons imposé cinq contraintes sur le taux d'utilisation des usines de retraitement, la séparation du plutonium, la teneur de plutonium dans le combustible MOX et le stockage du combustible usé. Dans chaque problème, nous avons donné une trajectoire préalable supposée à la suite d'une étude de scénarios avec une hypothèse pour maintenir la puissance installée constante à l’avenir. Nous avons supposé qu'à la suite de la disruption du contexte de l'étude, la puissance électrique totale est disruptée et réduite à l’avenir. Les résultats ont montré que les trajectoires préalables dans les deux problèmes sont résilientes vis-à-vis des disruptions supposées : il est possible de maintenir les trajectoires préalables valides en réajustant le retraitement et les charges de combustible MOX dans les réacteurs. Ces résultats démontrent que les évolutions du parc nucléaire dans les trajectoires préalables sont flexibles face à la disruption de la puissance électrique totaleNuclear fuel cycle systems, composed of reactors, various fuels, and different cycle facilities, are complex and in constant evolution. Thanks to their abilities to make projections of industrial strategies and to assess the associated impacts on nuclear fuel cycle systems, nuclear fuel cycle scenarios are considered as a powerful tool for decision-making analyses. Scenario studies assist decision-makers in identifying the strengths and weaknesses of different strategies for a nuclear fleet evolution and then proposing possible evolution trajectories for the nuclear industry according to constraints from physics, economics, industry, etc.However, scenario studies are usually subject to different kinds of uncertainties, especially the so-called “deep uncertainty.” This concept refers to “unknown unknowns,” which scenario study results are unsuited to address. Indeed, under the impact of deep uncertainty, i.e., disruptions, the trajectories proposed by the scenario studies can become invalid: they do not satisfy the scenario constraints anymore.In order to make the trajectories valid again after disruption due to uncertainty, the first possibility is to study the resistance strategy. The resistance strategy consists of finding scenario trajectories that remain valid under the impact of uncertainty without exogenous readjustments of trajectories. However, the resistance capabilities of scenarios are limited: resistance is only adapted to uncertainties with small impact, while the impact of deep uncertainty is usually strong.As a complementary solution to the resistance strategy, we propose using resilience strategies. The resilience strategies consist of using predesigned measures, called “levers,” to readjust the scenario trajectory when the resistance strategy is insufficient. We aim to use the effect of the exogenous readjustments of trajectories, which are introduced through the levers, to counterbalance the impact of disruption and remain the trajectory valid. To evaluate the resilience of scenarios, we developed a resilience analysis framework, based on the start-of-the-art SUR (Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction) algorithm.We applied the developed resilience strategy to two scenario problems in which a simplified French nuclear fleet with uncertain power reduction is considered. To define the validity of trajectory, we imposed five constraints about the reprocessing plant utilization ratio, plutonium separation, plutonium content in MOX fuel, and spent fuel storage. In each problem, we gave a prior trajectory supposed as a result of a scenario study with a hypothesis to keep the installed power constant in the future. We assumed that following the disruption of the study context, the total electricity power is disrupted and reduced in the future. The results showed that the prior trajectories in both problems are resilient for the assumed disruptions: it is possible to keep the prior trajectories valid by readjusting the reprocessing and the MOX fuel loadings in reactors. Such results demonstrate the evolutions of the nuclear fleet in the prior trajectories are flexible in front of the disruption of total electricity power
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Zhou, Xinan Carleton University Dissertation Computer Science. "Cellular data traffic: analysis, models, and scenarios." Ottawa, 2000.
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Awopone, Albert Kotawoke. "Optimising energy systems of Ghana for long-term scenarios." Thesis, Brunel University, 2017. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/14752.
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This study explored energy solutions for Ghana by analysing alternative pathways from 2010 to 2040. The Long-range Energy Alternating Pathways (LEAP) tool was used the scenarios analysis. Four scenarios were developed based on key influencing factors identified in the literature. These are Base case, Coal, Modest Renewable Energy Technology (RET), and High RET scenarios. The Base case scenario was based on government-planned expansion and assumed no shift in policy. The Coal scenario assumed the same expansion trend as Base case with introduction of coal plants replacing a percentage of natural gas generation. Modest and High RET scenarios examined the development of the system with increased renewable energy integration. The results revealed that overall benefits are achieved with higher integration of renewable energy technologies. Economic benefits of 0.5 –13.23% is achieved in the RET scenarios depending on the cost development over the 30 year study period. The high RET offers the highest economic and environmental benefits. Subsequently, the optimal development of the system was examined using the LEAP/OSeMOSYS (Open Source Energy Modelling System) optimisation methodology. The least cost system developed by LEAP (Optimum scenario), was used as a reference to examine future possible energy policy direction in Ghana. The policy constraints analysed included emission targets, carbon taxes and transmission, distribution losses improvements and demand side efficiency. The results show that: suitable policies for clean power generation have an important role in CO2 mitigation in Ghana. The introduction of carbon minimisation policies will also promote diversification of the generation mix with higher penetration of renewable energy technologies. The study proposes promoting energy efficiency and improvement in transmission and distribution losses and utilisation of renewable energy as the best energy strategy for Ghana. Ghana needs ambitious targets, policies and implementation strategies to enhance energy efficiency, and decrease demand in the long term. Stable funding and promotion of transparent policies are required to promote high development of renewable energy technologies.
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Gül, Timur. "An energy-economic scenario analysis of alternative fuels for transport /." Zürich : ETH, 2008. http://e-collection.ethbib.ethz.ch/show?type=diss&nr=17888.
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Hooper, Seth T. "Enhancing the enhanced scenario-based method of cost risk analysis." Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/10622.
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The current S-Curve method of cost risk analysis for major DON acquisitions projects does not accurately estimate actual cost when the program reaches Full Rate Production. Another, sometimes more effective method of measuring cost risk, is by using the enhanced scenario-based method (eSBM) of risk analysis. The reason that cost estimations from the milestone B costs are inaccurate is that very little, if any, real information about the project is known. eSBM allows managers a less statistically tasking method of determining cost risk for a project while still maintaining the requirements of the Weapons System Acquisitions Reform Act. The key factors in measuring the usefulness of eSBM should be focused on the acquisition strategy being used for the project and the time frame from Milestone B to later Milestones. I presume that different acquisition strategies will yield different levels of success in estimating cost risk for eSBM.
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Wijesinghe, Nadeera. "Rural Electrification - Sri Lanka: A Case study & Scenario Analysis." Thesis, Högskolan i Gävle, Avdelningen för bygg- energi- och miljöteknik, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-17571.
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“Rural electrification” is a key element in the global energy development agenda. While being a developing country, Sri Lanka is enroot to achieve 100% of electrification at present. After the civil war ended in 2009 which lasted for more than 25 years, there has been much focus to fulfill the energy needs of the country. But the studies carried out to assess the impact of electrification are very much limited. This study focuses on meeting the gap of carrying out a scenario analysis of rural electrification and assessing the socio economic impact of electrification. The major focus has been given to see how energy system of a newly electrified village will vary over time. The research intends to identify how far the strategies used to implement a policy is realistic in the real world. Also the research extends to apply the proposed strategies to the energy model and analyze the behavior of the model. During the study a survey was carried out in a rural village in southern part of Sri Lanka and the data obtained were used to model the energy system of the village using a software called - LEAP (Long Range Energy Alternative Planning System). The energy system is simulated under different scenarios to analyze if certain strategies in the policy have been implemented in the village. Two scenarios were energy efficient lighting and energy efficient cooking stoves. A total energy balance has been carried out for the target sample with an analysis of global warming potential of the activities of the target family. The total energy consumption variation with the electrification and the percentage of energy consumed as electricity over time has been analyzed. Further the socio economic impacts of electrification have been studied. The impact of agricultural usage and economic productivity with electricity has been studied. The qualitative measures like attitude changes, modernization & technology adaptation were addressed to the extent possible.
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Löhndorf, Nils. "An empirical analysis of scenario generation methods for stochastic optimization." Elsevier, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2016.05.021.
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This work presents an empirical analysis of popular scenario generation methods for stochastic optimization, including quasi-Monte Carlo, moment matching, and methods based on probability metrics, as well as a new method referred to as Voronoi cell sampling. Solution quality is assessed by measuring the error that arises from using scenarios to solve a multi-dimensional newsvendor problem, for which analytical solutions are available. In addition to the expected value, the work also studies scenario quality when minimizing the expected shortfall using the conditional value-at-risk. To quickly solve problems with millions of random parameters, a reformulation of the risk-averse newsvendor problem is proposed which can be solved via Benders decomposition. The empirical analysis identifies Voronoi cell sampling as the method that provides the lowest errors, with particularly good results for heavy-tailed distributions. A controversial finding concerns evidence for the ineffectiveness of widely used methods based on minimizing probability metrics under high-dimensional randomness.
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Grotti, Simone. "Robotic patrolling: analisi di strategie e applicazione ad uno scenario." Bachelor's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2013. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/6087/.
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Kroén, Johannes. "The Price of Uranium : an Econometric Analysis and Scenario Simulations." Thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-75250.
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The purpose of this thesis is to analyze: (a) the determinants of the global price of uranium; and (b) how this price could be affected by different nuclear power generation scenarios for 2030. To do this a multivariable regression analysis will be used. Within the model, the price of uranium is the dependent variable and the independent variables are generated nuclear power electricity representing demand (GWh), price of coal as a substitute to generated nuclear power electricity, and the price of oil representing uranium production costs. The empirical results show that generated nuclear electricity and the oil price, to be statistically significant at the 5 percent level. The coal price was not however a statistically significant. The scenarios for 2030 are three possible nuclear power generation demand cases; high, medium and low demand. The results for the high demand generated a price of 255 US$/kg and the medium demand 72US$/kg.
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Maschio, Olimpia <1988>. "Enterprise Risk Management e struttura organizzativa: analisi dello scenario europeo." Master's Degree Thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/3569.
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La tesi verterà sullo studio della gestione integrata del rischio d'impresa. Partendo da un'analisi del Risk Management si arriverà a trattare la gestione integrata del rischio, in particolare approfondendo la componente organizzativa. Per affrontare tale studio verrà inviato a un set d'imprese un questionario finalizzato all'individuazione delle principali chiavi organizzative adottate nell'applicazione della gestione integrata del rischio. Il risultato del questionario, oltre ad analizzare la struttura organizzativa che supporta una corretta gestione del rischio, servirà per fornire i dati necessari a una valutazione del valore di mercato delle imprese intervistate, al fine di individuare se vi sia o meno un legame tra l'adozione del sistema di gestione integrata e il valore di mercato dell'impresa.
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Saers, Pauline. "Future Impacts of Variable Renewable Power Production : An analysis of future scenarios effects on electricity supply and demand." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Fasta tillståndets fysik, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-256790.
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Many scenarios try to describe a future of supply and demand for electricity in Sweden. All the studied scenarios contain an increased amount of variable renewable energy (VRE) power production. VRE power sources, such as solar and wind power, depend on weather conditions, like solar irradiance and wind speed. There are also scenarios predicting an increased amount of plug-in electrical vehicles (PEVs), which charge their batteries from the electricity grid and thereby changes the consumption patterns. In a future power system with less nuclear power and increased VRE power production it is of interest to investigate the scenarios impact on supply and demand. The scenarios were compiled into cases for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100. Simulations of each case VRE shares resulted in hourly power production data. Aggregating the data and comparing it with the consumption gives an understanding of the power and regulation need. For Case 2030, a VRE share of 10.3% was calculated. The hydropower in Sweden could cover the power need for the whole year and even peaks in demand. For the larger shares of Case 2050 and 2100, hydropower was not able to cover peaks in power demand solemnly. The consumption of PEVs was small for all cases, reaching shares of 1.5% to 7.1%, compared to the consumption of all other sectors. Considering short-term statistics for wind power and the latest news that some of Sweden’s nuclear reactors might shut down in advance, it is possible that Case 2030 might occur sooner than predicted. If larger shares of VRE power have to be produced to meet consumer needs in the near future, grid-stabilizing measures has to be investigated.
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Camacho, Andersson Emil, and Jonathan Karlsson. "Effekter av Internet of Things : Scenariobaserad studie som beskriver inledande effekter av Internet of Things i en verksamhet." Thesis, Högskolan Dalarna, Informatik, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:du-22582.
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Med begreppet "Internet of Things" menas att ett objekt ur den riktiga världen blir en del av internet. Tunabyggen i Borlänge planerar att implementera ett sådant informationssystem som med hjälp av sensorer och en ständig internetuppkoppling håller uppsikt över temperatur och luftfuktighet i utvalda lokaler. Det är ett enkelt system som till synes inte har så stora effekter på den nuvarande verksamheten. De ekonomiska effekterna går ofta att räkna på i förhand men effekterna på personal, miljö och rutiner kan glömmas bort. Vi har därför med detta examensarbete undersökt vilka inledande effekter som kan tänkas uppkomma efter implementering av ett nytt informationssystem med "Internet of Things" funktionalitet i en verksamhet. Detta sker inom kategorierna ekonomi, arbetsmiljö, miljöpåverkan och systemförvaltning. För att kunna besvara detta har vi gjort en fallstudie baserad på en scenariometodik som består av fyra faser. Fas 1, där vi fick vårt Case och skapade en förståelse för scenariofältet. Fas 2, där vi identifierade nyckelfaktorer. Detta har gjorts genom en litteraturstudie samt intervju med berörd personal på Tunabyggen. Fas 3, där analysen av dessa nyckelfaktorer skedde genom nulägesanalys och framtidsanalys av nyckelfaktorer. Fas 4, där vi genererade scenarier av de analyserade nyckelfaktorerna. Det har sedan gjorts en SWOT-analys för att belysa styrkor, svagheter, möjligheter och hot. Resultatet visar tydliga tecken på att det kommer att bli många effekter för Tunabyggen efter implementering av det nya informationssystemet som yttrar sig i alla kategorier. Slutsatsen är att vid implementation av ett informationssystem som detta är effekterna många. Detta är något som vi anser bör beaktas av alla verksamheter som har tankar på att införskaffa ett nytt informationssystem. De bör inte bara utvärdera informationssystem rent ekonomiskt utan borde ta i beaktning att det finns ett antal andra faktorer som har en avgörande roll om implementation av informationssystem ska bli lyckad.The term "Internet of Things" refers to when an object from the real world becomes a part of the internet. Tunabyggen in Borlänge plans to implement an information system that will monitor temperature and humidity in selected facilities using a constant internet connection and different sensors. It is a simple system that doesn't seem to have a major impact on the current operations. The economic effects is often possible to calculate in advance, but the impact on staff, environment and routines may be forgotten. We have with this thesis examined the initial effects that may occur after the implementation of a new information system with Internet of Things functionality in a business, within the categories of economy, working environment, environmental impact and system management. To answer this we made a case study which is based on a scenario methodology that consists of four phases. Phase 1, where we got our case and created an understanding of the scenario field. Phase 2, identifying the key factors. It has been done through a literature study and interviews with relevant staff on Tunabyggen. Phase 3, where the analysis of these key factors were made through the situation and future analysis. Phase 4, where we generate scenarios of the analyzed key factors. Finally we have done a SWOT analysis to highlight the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. The results clearly show signs that there will be many effects for Tunabyggen after the implementation of the new information system, which manifests itself in all categories. The conclusion is that even the implementation of a menial information system like this one, the impacts are many. This is something that we believe should be considered by all companies that are thinking of acquiring a new system so they do not only evaluate IT-systems in economic terms, but also other factors that play a crucial role for the implementation of an information system to be successful.
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Perveen, Sajida. "Modelling the transport impacts of urban growth scenarios: A perspective from South East Queensland, Australia." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2018. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/122902/1/Sajida_Perveen_Thesis.pdf.
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This research aimed to evaluate alternative urban growth scenarios by using representative transport impact indicators at different spatial and temporal scale. The assessment of key indicators at multi-scale level helped for ranking the alternative scenarios in terms of their suitability for promoting sustainable urban growth with least environmental externalities. In addition to the key transport impact indicators and alternative scenario of the future urban growth as major contributions to knowledge, this research provides an empirical approach to inform and assist decision-makers, practitioners and stakeholders in applying the meta-narrative of sustainable development at regional, city and local level.
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BEN, ACHOUR CAMILLE. "Extraction des besoins par analyse de scenarios textuels." Paris 6, 1999. http://www.theses.fr/1999PA066049.
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Le domaine de recherche dans lequel s'inscrit cette these est celui de l'ingenierie des besoins. Le resultat presente est une approche methodologique d'extraction des besoins basee sur l'utilisation des scenarios textuels comportant d'une part, - un modele des scenarios textuels et d'autre part, - un ensemble d'outils methodologiques supportant le processus d'extraction des besoins. Le modele propose combine la richesse de l'expression informelle des scenarios textuels a la puissance de la modelisation conceptuelle des scenarios. Chaque scenario est decrit sous forme textuelle et fait partie d'une collection structuree hierarchiquement adressant les besoins du systeme a plusieurs niveaux de contexte. La dimension conceptuelle du modele de scenarios, definit de maniere formelle la structure interne des scenarios, leur organisation hierarchique et leur relation avec les besoins. La dimension linguistique du modele de scenarios definit, au niveau de la surface et au niveau profond, le sous-ensemble du langage naturel qui peut etre utilise pour decrire des scenarios textuels. Les outils d'aide methodologique comprennent des mecanismes d'aide a la redaction, a l'organisation et a l'analyse de scenarios. Les outils d'aide a la redaction reposent sur la definition linguistique des scenarios. Ils permettent d'extraire les scenarios dans leur forme informelle et de les transformer jusqu'a atteindre la structure conceptuelle requise par le modele de scenarios. Les outils d'aide a l'analyse permettent de completer une collection donnee de scenarios. Plusieurs strategies d'analyse sont proposees, chacune exploitant de maniere differente la structure conceptuelle des scenarios laquelle est identifiee lors de leur redaction. Chaque scenario decouvert lors de l'analyse peut etre integre de maniere consistante a la collection de scenarios a l'aide des outils d'organisation de scenarios. Le resultat de cette these permet non seulement d'ameliorer l'extraction des besoins de haut en bas, mais aussi de systematiser l'utilisation des scenarios textuels dans une demarche de redaction et d'analyse complete et coherente.
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Sakarya, Basak. "From Delphi To Scenario By Using Cluster Analysis: Turkish Foresight Case." Master's thesis, METU, 2007. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/3/12608424/index.pdf.
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In this thesis, the technologies that appeared to be strategic according to the Vision
2023 Technology Foresight Project were examined in terms of how they might form
up technology clusters. This thesis aims to identify technology clusters in terms of
common knowledge base and to use these clusters in future scenarios as a foresight
tool. In this study, Vision 2023 Delphi survey respondents&rsquointersecting expertise levels in different fields were accepted as indicators of common knowledge base in these fields and technology clusters were formed up in this direction. In order to attain technology clusters, the appropriateness of hierarchical and nonhierarchical clustering methods and projection techniques were examined. Taking the clusters into consideration, Ward&rsquo
s method revealed the healthiest results for our data set. Investigation of scenario building which had not been used in Turkey as a an effective foresight tool, forms the second step of this study. Scenario method was examined from a historical perspective and different approaches were investigated. Finally, using the technology clusters that were gained through Ward clustering, a scenario building study by scenario matrix was conducted as an example.
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Godoy, Stênico Joselaine Andréia de, and Marcela Soares Polato Paes. "Paulo Freire and Social Movements: An Analysis of the Brazilian Scenario." Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2017. http://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/index/handle/123456789/117650.
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This paper presents the thought of Paulo Freire as a perspective of analysis andreflection on the social movement in Brazilian society. It is action and object ofthis reflection to contribute to the task of reinventing the critical pedagogy in theconstruction of social movements. This is a qualitative research that is dividedinto two stages: the first is dedicated to presenting the theoretical framework,and then an analysis of Brazilian social movements, exposing the origin of thestruggles and advanced to the most recent discussions that have undertaken theBrazil in search of freedom and justice in the recovery of stolen humanity. Anincessant struggle that calls for Liberation Pedagogy developed by Freire, key toolin awareness process, and thus the constitution of social movements.En este artículo se presenta el pensamiento de Paulo Freire como una perspectiva de análisis y reflexión sobre el movimiento social en el contexto de la sociedad brasileña. Es objeto de la presente acción y reflexión contribuir a la tarea de reinventar la pedagogía crítica en la construcción de movimientos sociales. Se tratade una investigación cualitativa dividida en dos etapas: la primera está dedicadaa la presentación del marco teórico, y luego de un análisis de los movimientossociales brasileños, se deja al descubierto el origen de las luchas y avance a lasdiscusiones más recientes que se ha emprendido en Brasil en busca de la libertady la justicia en la recuperación de la humanidad. Una lucha incesante que pide laPedagogía Liberadora de Freire, herramienta clave en el proceso educativo, y porlo tanto, en la constitución de los movimientos sociales.
Este artigo apresenta o pensamento de Paulo Freire enquanto uma perspectiva deanálise e reflexão sobre o movimento social no contexto da sociedade brasileira.Constitui ação e objeto desta reflexão contribuir na tarefa de reinventar apedagogia crítica na construção dos movimentos sociais. Trata-se de uma pesquisaqualitativa dividida em dois momentos: o primeiro é dedicado a apresentaçãodo aporte teórico, e em seguida, uma análise dos movimentos sociais brasileiros,expondo a origem das lutas e avançado para as discussões mais recentes que setem empreendido no Brasil na busca da liberdade e da justiça na recuperação dahumanidade roubada. Uma luta incessante que clama pela Pedagogia Libertadorade Freire, instrumento fundamental no processo de conscientização, e, portanto,na constituição dos movimentos sociais.
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Pinchuk, Nataliya. "The scenario analysis ecological and economic efficiency regional policy of Ukraine." Thesis, Сумський державний університет, 2013. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/31702.
Full textAbstract:
In a crisis situation in Ukraine's economy is worsening many problems in society, including a major problem is the relationship between economic and environmental component. Question detection interdependent impact of economic and ecological processes was the subject of extensive discussion and detailed analysis. This requires solving the problem analysis of ecological and economic efficiency regional policy in Ukraine.
When you are citing the document, use the following link http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/31702
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Tracy, Jacob N. "Reduced-Dimension Groundwater Model Emulation for Scenario Analysis and Decision Support." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2019. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1573574885505114.
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Krieger, Benedikt. "The Future of Human-Robot Interaction : A socio-economic Scenario Analysis." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för industriell teknik och management (ITM), 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-289362.
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Advancing research in an interdisciplinary field such as robotics is a complex undertaking. Seldom, it is moved beyond the scope of an individual science and the challenges from other fields of research are incorporated. Research on Human-Robot Interaction (HRI) is attributed interdisciplinarity and, thus, is a case in point. Therefore, this thesis aims to integrate both engineering, psychosocial, and socio-economic research streams. By doing so, the goal is to reveal and to identify underlying questions which are tacitly assumed by either research field, but require explicit contemplation and elaboration. The engineering community is currently focusing on collaboration and cooperation (CoCo) as it enables humans and robots to operate together in heterogenous teams. Human-robot teamwork, in turn, is promising to enable the integration of both a human’s flexibility, dexterity, and creative problem solving with robotic strength, precision, reliability, and efficiency. In contrast, economic considerations evolve around elaborations on technological unemployment and further macroeconomic implications. To unite these streams, this thesis conducts a scoping literature review. Through it, the fundamental design considerations necessary to achieve CoCo are laid out, while pointing towards the currently most promising research direction in each of the design aspects. Both engineering as well as psychosocial aspects are considered. Then, a scenario analysis with a socio-economic scope is conducted. This serves to widen the understanding of the embedding of HRI as a socio-technical system in socio-economic environments, i.e., companies. Finally, the design aspects trust, multimodal communication, and the human role in HRI are used to build an understanding of the relation between socio-economic developments and future scenarios with specific design aspects of HRI. It is found that all future scenarios have distinct but also partly similar implications for HRI. More profoundly though, a number of ethical and open philosophical questions arise from the scenario transfer to HRI. What happens if progress on CoCo is too slow to enable a paradigm shift away from automation through robotics? How much are we willing to subject ourselves to digital technology in order to enable natural interaction with robots? Are we sufficiently knowledgeable about prospective opportunities and risks as we move closer to being able to replicate a considerable number of uniquely human abilities? With these questions, this dissertation aims to contribute to the HRI community on wider considerations necessary for a human-centric future of HRI. Education is posited as a crucial stepping stone to enable such a future.Att främja forskning inom ett tvärvetenskapligt område såsom robotik är ett komplext åtagande. Sällan förflyttas forskningen bortom ramen för en enskild vetenskaplig förgrening och utmaningar från andra forskningsområden integreras. Forskning om mänsklig robotinteraktion (HRI) tillskrivs som tvärvetenskaplig och är således ett exempel. Därför syftar denna avhandling till att integrera tekniska, psykosociala men även socioekonomiska forskningsförgreningar. Genom att göra detta är målet att avslöja underliggande frågor som i sin tystnad antas av vartdera forskningsfält, men som uttryckligen kräver kontemplation och utarbetande. Ingenjörssamhället fokuserar för närvarande på samarbete och samverkan (CoCo) eftersom det gör det möjligt för människor och robotar att arbeta tillsammans i heterogena team. Teamarbete mellan människa och robot är i sin tur en lovande möjliggörare för integrering av både människans flexibilitet, skicklighet och kreativa problemlösning med robotens styrka, precision, tillförlitlighet och effektivitet. I kontrast utvecklas ekonomiska överväganden kring utarbetande av teknisk arbetslöshet och vidare makroekonomiska konsekvenser. För att förena dessa förgreningar genomför denna avhandling en litteraturöversikt. Genom den läggs de grundläggande designbesluten som är nödvändiga för att uppnå CoCo, samtidigt som de indikerar den för närvarande mest lovande forskningsriktningen i var och en av designaspekterna. Både ingenjörsmässiga och psykosociala aspekter tas i beaktning. Därefter genomförs en scenarioanalys med en socioekonomisk omfattning. Detta bidrar till ökad förståelse för att omsluta HRI som ett socio-tekniskt system i socioekonomiska miljöer, dvs. företag. Slutligen används designaspekterna tillit, multimodal kommunikation och den mänskliga rollen i HRI för att bygga en förståelse mellan förhållandet av socioekonomisk utveckling och framtida scenarier med specifika designaspekter av HRI. Det framgår att alla framtidsscenarier har distinkta men också snarlika konsekvenser för HRI. Mer djupgående uppstår dock ett antal etiska och öppna djupgående filosofiska frågor från scenarioöverföringen till HRI. Vad händer om framstegen på CoCo är för långsam för att möjliggöra ett paradigmskifte bort från automatisering genom robotik? Hur mycket är vi villiga att exponera oss för digital teknik för att möjliggöra naturlig interaktion med robotar? Är vi tillräckligt kunniga om potentiella möjligheter och risker när vi närmar oss att kunna replikera ett stort antal unikt mänskliga förmågor? Med dessa frågor syftar denna avhandling till att bidra till intressegruppen för HRI i bredare överväganden som är nödvändiga för en människocentrerad framtid för HRI. Utbildning framställs som ett viktigt steg för att möjliggöra en sådan framtid.
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HEDMAN, MOLLY, and GRETA KNUTSSON. "Adaptation to ClimateChange : Climate Scenario Analysis in the Swedish Banking Sector." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för industriell teknik och management (ITM), 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-300073.
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Climate change presents financial risks for banks and must therefore be treated accordingly. To assess and manage these risks, banks are expected to apply scenarioanalysis and adopt the TCFD’s recommendations on climate-related risk disclosures. This study analyzes how climate scenario analysis is implemented and reported in the Swedish banking sector. Empirical data has been collected through interviews with six banks, as well as through public annual and sustainability reports. The results of the study indicate that banks are in a learning phase characterized by uncertainty and lack of data, resulting in careful considerations in making strategic decisions based on the scenario analysis and when disclosing climate related information. Thus, banks do not disclose their scenario analysis as transparently as the TCFD suggests, thereby affecting the comparability within the sector. Further improvements related to more accessible and granular data are needed. In addition, many banks consider this to be a governmental issue where regulations are beneficial for establishing standardized models and common practices, which in turn could increase transparency and comparability.Klimatförändringar medför finansiella risker som banker behöver beakta. För att bedöma och hantera dem bör banker genomföra scenarioanalyser samt följa de rekommendationer som TCFD gett ut gällande klimatrelaterad rapportering. Denna studie ger en nulägesanalys av hur scenarioanalys implementeras och rapporteras inom den svenska banksektorn. Studien bygger på empirisk data från intervjuer med sex banker, samt från publika års- och hållbarhetsredovisningar. Resultatet av studien visar att bankerna är i en lärandefas präglad av osäkerhet, där bland annat datatillgänglighet är ett stort problem. Bristfälligheterna medför att bankerna är försiktiga med att fatta strategiska beslut utifrån scenarioanalyserna samt med vad de rapporterar publikt, vilket påverkar transparensen och jämförbarheten inom sektorn. Dessutom anser många banker att detta är en samhällsfråga där regleringar kan bidra till ökad standardisering av data och modeller samt etablering av gemensamma standarder, vilket även kan ha en positiv inverkan på rapporteringen och således öka transparensen och jämförbarheten inom sektorn.
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Vitri, Isaia. "Studio, modellazione, sviluppo ed analisi prestazionale multi-scenario di parchi eolici offshore." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2022.
Find full textAbstract:
Fonte pulita, rinnovabile ed inesauribile, l'energia eolica altro non è che l'energia cinetica prodotta dal movimento dell'aria sulla superficie terrestre, tra zone di alta e di bassa pressione.
La centrale eolica viene denominata “Wind farm” ed è formata da un raggruppamento di più aerogeneratori.
Lo scopo di questo elaborato è quello di calcolare e valutare le prestazioni annuali delle wind farm, sia in termini di efficienza di produzione energetica sia in termini economici, tramite la costruzione di un algoritmo che permetta di simularne le prestazioni. Tale algoritmo deve avere carattere generale e non specifico: inserendo gli opportuni input deve adattarsi a qualsiasi situazione di parco eolico.
In questo lavoro viene anche studiata la possibilità di costruire wind farm offshore ‘non uniformi’, ovvero in cui possano coesistere diversi tipi di aerogeneratori, aventi diversi diametri del rotore e posizionati a diverse altezze tra di loro, al fine di valutare se tali configurazioni possano o meno avere influenza positiva sull’effetto scia. Quest’ultimo non è altro che un disturbo del flusso d’aria creato dalle turbine eoliche sopravento che incide su quelle situate sottovento, generando deficit di velocità. Lo scopo di un layout ottimizzato è quindi quello di minimizzare tale effetto. Minore è l’effetto scia, maggiore sarà l’energia prodotta dal parco.
Nella prima parte dell’elaborato si svolge uno studio anemologico in diverse località marittime italiane. Vengono poi studiate le diverse teorie che stanno alla base del funzionamento dell’eolico: Distribuzione di Weibull, legge di Betz, modello di Jensen per la caratterizzazione dell’effetto scia. Vengono poi analizzate le turbine eoliche e il loro funzionamento. Viene quindi sviluppato l’algoritmo, codificato in ambiente Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications di Excel, in grado di simulare il funzionamento di ogni parco eolico e restituirne in output gli indicatori prestazionali ed economici più importanti.
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Jasna, Stepanov. "Model za evaluaciju sistema upravljanja komunalnim otpadom primenom metode ocenjivanja životnog ciklusa." Phd thesis, Univerzitet u Novom Sadu, Fakultet tehničkih nauka u Novom Sadu, 2018. https://www.cris.uns.ac.rs/record.jsf?recordId=107072&source=NDLTD&language=en.
Full textAbstract:
Cilj disertacije je razvoj fleksibilnog modela za evaluaciju sistema upravljanjakomunalnim otpadom baziran na LCA metodi. Model je baziran na bilansumase i energije. LCA analiza sistema komunalnog otpada omogućavasagledavanje uticaja kako svih faza životnog ciklusa otpada, takoi celokupnog sistema upravljanja otpadom. Model je koncipiran kroz modulekoji prate osnovne faze LCA metode. Evaluacija i komparacija različitihscenarija upravljanja otpadom sprovedena je kroz pet indikatora. Ostvarenirezultati istraživanja pokazuju jasne razlike između definisanih scenarijaupravljanja otpadom po pitanju odabranih indikatoria i daju dobru osnovu uprocesu donošenja odluka za unapređenje i izbor optimalnog sistemaupravljanja čvrstim komunalnim otpadom.The goal dissertation is to develop a flexible model for the evaluationwaste management system based on LCA methods. The model isbased on mass and energy balance. LCA analysis of municipal wastesystem assess environmental impacts to all phases of the life cycle ofwaste, and the entire system of waste management. The model isbased on modules corresponding to the main phases of LCAmethods. Evaluation of different scenarios of waste management iscarried out through five indicators. The results show clear differencesbetween the scenarios in terms of impact on selected indicators andprovides basis for decision-making processes for the selection of theoptimal solid waste management system.
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Jayasinghe, L. K. (Laddu Keeth Saliya). "Analysis on MIMO relaying scenarios in wireless communication systems." Doctoral thesis, Oulun yliopisto, 2015. http://urn.fi/urn:isbn:9789526207391.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract The thesis concentrates on evaluating and improving performances of various multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) relaying scenarios that are particularly relevant to future wireless systems. A greater emphasis is placed on important practical situations, considering relay deployments, availability of channel state information (CSI), limitations of spectrum, and information secrecy. Initially, the performance of a non-coherent amplify-and-forward (AF) MIMO relaying is analyzed when the relay is deployed with the relay-to-destination channel having a line-of-sight (LoS) path. The main attention is given to analyzing the performance of orthogonal space-time block coded based non-coherent AF MIMO system. Exact expressions of statistical parameters and performance metrics are derived considering the instantaneous signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) received at the destination. These performance metrics reveal that a strong LoS component in relay-destination channel always limits the performance promised by MIMO scattering environment when both nodes have multiple antennas. The thesis also considers scenarios in MIMO two-way relaying (TWR) with physical layer network coding (PNC) mapping at the relay. PNC mapping becomes complex with multiple streams being combined at the relay node. Joint precoder-decoder schemes are considered to ease this, and various studies are carried out depending on the CSI. The zero-forcing criterion is used at the nodes when perfect CSI is available. For the imperfect CSI scenario, a robust joint precoder-decoder design is considered. The precoder and decoder matrices are obtained by solving optimization problems, which are formulated to maximize sum-rate and minimize weighted mean square error (WMSE) under transmit power constraints on the nodes. Next, a precoder-decoder scheme for MIMO underlay device-to-device (D2D) communication system is investigated by considering two D2D modes; PNC based D2D and direct D2D. The joint design is based on minimizing mean square error (MSE) which is useful to mitigate interference, and to improve the performance of both D2D and cellular communications. Distributed and centralized algorithms are proposed considering bi-directional communication in both D2D and cellular communications. System performance is discussed with two transmit mode selection schemes as dynamic and static selection schemes. The results show that the PNC based D2D mode extends the coverage area of D2D communication. Finally, secure beamforming schemes for the PNC based MIMO TWR systems are investigated when multiple eavesdroppers are attempting to intercept the user information. The CSI of the user-to-eavesdropper channels is imperfect at the users. The channel estimation errors are assumed with both ellipsoidal bound and Gaussian Markov uncertainty models. Robust optimization problems are formulated considering both scenarios to design beamforming vectors at the users and relay. Numerical results suggest that the proposed algorithms converge fast and provide higher securityTiivistelmä Tässä väitöskirjassa keskitytään arvioimaan ja parantamaan suorituskykyä useissa moniantennitoistinjärjestelmissä, jotka ovat ajankohtaisia tulevaisuuden langattomissa verkoissa. Erityisesti työssä analysoidaan tärkeitä käytännön tilanteita, sisältäen toistimien sijoittamisen, kanavatiedon saatavuuden, rajoitetun taajuuskaistan ja tiedon salauksen. Aluksi epäkoherentin, vahvistavan ja jatkolähettävän moniantennitoistimen suorituskykyä analysoidaan tilanteessa, jossa toistin on sijoitettu siten, että kohteeseen on suora yhteys. Suorituskyvyn arvioinnin pääkohteena on ortogonaalinen tila-aika-tason lohkokoodattu epäkoherentti vahvistava ja jatkolähettävä moniantennitoistin. Työssä johdetaan tarkat lausekkeet tilastollisille parametreille ja suorituskykymittareille ottaen huomioon hetkellinen signaalikohinasuhde vastaanottimessa. Nämä suorituskykymittarit ilmaisevat, että toistimen ja kohteen välillä oleva vahva suoran yhteyden komponentti rajoittaa sitä suorituskykyä, jota moniantennijärjestelmän hajontaympäristö ennustaa. Työssä tutkitaan myös kahdensuuntaisia moniantennitoistimia, jotka käyttävät fyysisen kerroksen verkkokoodausta. Koodauksesta tulee monimutkaista, kun monia datavirtoja yhdistetään toistimessa. Tämän helpottamiseksi käytetään yhdistettyä esikoodaus-dekoodausmenetelmää, jota tutkitaan erilaisten kanavatietojen tapauksissa. Täydellisen kanavatiedon tapauksessa käytetään nollaanpakotuskriteeriä. Epätäydellisen kanavatiedon tapauksessa käytetään robustia yhdistettyä esikoodaus-dekoodausmenetelmää. Esikoodaus- ja dekoodausmatriisit saadaan ratkaisemalla optimointiongelmat. Nämä ongelmat on muodostettu maksimoimaan summadatanopeus, ja minimoimaan painotettu keskineliövirhe, kun optimointirajoitteina ovat solmujen lähetystehot. Seuraavaksi esikoodaus-dekoodausmenetelmää tutkitaan moniantennijärjestelmässä, jossa käytetään kahdentyyppistä laitteesta-laitteeseen (D2D) kommunikaatiomenetelmää: fyysisen kerroksen verkkokoodaukseen pohjautuvaa D2D- ja suoraa D2D-kommunikaatiota. Yhteissuunnittelu perustuu keskineliövirheen minimointiin, joka on hyödyllistä, kun halutaan vähentää häiriötä ja parantaa molempien verkkojen suorituskykyä. Työssä ehdotetaan hajautettuja ja keskitettyjä algoritmeja tilanteessa, jossa käytetään kaksisuuntaista kommunikaatiota molemmissa verkoissa. Järjestelmän suorituskykyä arvioidaan, kun käytetään kahta eri lähetystilan valintaa, dynaamista ja staattista. Tulokset osoittavat, että fyysisen kerroksen verkkokoodaukseen pohjautuva D2D kasvattaa D2D-kommunikaatiojärjestelmän kantamaa. Lopuksi, turvallisia keilanmuodostustekniikoita arvioidaan fyysisen kerroksen verkkokoodaukseen pohjautuvassa kahdensuuntaisessa moniantennitoistinjärjestelmässä, kun useat salakuuntelijat yritävät siepata käyttäjätiedon. Käyttäjillä on epäideaalinen kanavatieto heidän ja salakuuntelijoiden välisten linkkien kanavista. Kanavatiedon estimointivirheitä arvioidaan ellipsoidisella ja Gauss-Markov-epävarmuusmallilla. Robustit optimointiongelmat, joissa suunnitellaan keilanmuodostusvektorit käyttäjän ja toistimen välille, muodostetaan molemmille malleille. Numeeriset tulokset osoittavat, että ehdotetut algoritmit konvergoituvat nopeasti ja tarjoavat korkeamman turvallisuuden
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Mehta, Saumil (Saumil Jayant). "Analysis of future ticketing scenarios for transport for London." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/34592.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (M. Eng.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2006."June 2006."
Includes bibliographical references (p. 71).
Rapid advances in information and communications technology in the recent past have opened up new possibilities for ticketing in public transit systems. These systems offer several benefits like replacing cash, deployment of a richer fare structure and minimizing queuing times. Although smart card ticketing systems have existed for several years now, the full potential of the developments in information technology have yet to be leveraged in terms of cost effectiveness and diverse fare collection strategies. In 2002, TfL (Transport for London) has introduced the Oyster card as a means of smart card ticketing. However TfL has the option to extend or possibly depart from the Oyster Card system in the years 2010 or 2015, when the existing contractual agreements for are open to change. With the aim of understanding the future requirements of ticketing systems, TfL wants to explore ticketing policy and technology options that would be effective and feasible over the next 5 to 10 years. The study results will then guide the development of hardware and software concepts to support such systems. We have proposed seven options for future ticketing systems, which can be broadly categorized into seven categories based on their principal technologies used.
(cont.) The present work is aimed at guiding TfL to specify the system requirements of the future technology that will best suit the needs of TfL and its customers. A software model has been developed to analyze the effectiveness of the several possible alternatives by estimating their costs and the potential revenues that each of them can generate. The system costs and revenues that can be generated highly depend upon the fare structure used for pricing tickets which in turn depend on the ticketing media, organization that handles the transactions and type of technology used for fare collection. Another goal of the project is to estimate the transaction times required to validate tickets and possibly use real time pricing by performing simulations using the Java card environment. The analysis will help in understanding the hardware requirements and physical properties of the card.
by Saumil Mehta.
M.Eng.
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Rippel, Milan. "Operattional risk : scenario analysis." Master's thesis, 2008. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-297350.
Full textAbstract:
Operational risk management and measurement has been paid an increasing attention in recent years - namely due to the Basel II requirements that were to be complied with by all international active financial institutions by January 2008 and also due to recent severe operational risk loss events. This diploma thesis focuses on operational risk measurement techniques and on regulatory capital estimation methods. A data sample of operational losses provided by a Central European bank is analyzed using several approaches. Multiple statistical concepts for the Loss Distribution Approach are considered. One of the methods used for operational risk management is a scenario analysis. Under this method custom plausible loss events defined in a particular scenario are merged with the original data sample and their impact on capital estimates and on the financial institution as a whole is evaluated. Two main problems are assessed in this diploma thesis - what is the most appropriate statistical method to measure and model operational loss data distribution and what is the impact of hypothetical plausible events on the financial institution. The g&h distribution was evaluated to be the most suitable one for operational risk modeling because its results are consistent even while using scenario analysis method. The...
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Hshaio-Hshan, Yu, and 于小軒. "Scenario Analysis of Fraud Victim." Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/d56feu.
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碩士國立臺灣科技大學
工業管理系
99
According to National Police Agency and Ministry of The Interior’s data, there are 30,125 fraud cases in 2010. *Fraudster makes the victim lose a lot of money and lost their trust to the system. From the references, there are many types of fraud and the techniques they used are also different from the past. Mobile phone, website, and ATM are the common media used by fraudster. A database containing seven variables related to fraud scenario and victims: victim sex, age, and education, region of Taiwan, type of fraud, techniques, and the way to hand out the money. Cramer’s V correlation and Phi correlation were used to screen out significant relationship between factors and find the similar pattern of victims in all types of fraud. The result from the analysis shows that under-graduated, graduate people(15,821，52.52%), and 20-29 age(14,032，46.58%) are the common victims. Fraudster usually use phone(14,780，49.06%) and internet(13,075，43.40%) connecting to victims, then get their money from ATM(16,420，54.51%). Four major types of fraud technique had been used to manipulate the psychology of the victim the result of the current study can be used to remind general public and police officers about prevention of fraud cases.
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Pan, Yuanyi. "From scenario association to categorical data clustering /." 2005.
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Thesis (M.Sc.)--York University, 2005. Graduate Programme in Mathematics and Statistics.Typescript. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 61-62). Also available on the Internet. MODE OF ACCESS via web browser by entering the following URL: http://gateway.proquest.com/openurl?url%5Fver=Z39.88-2004&res%5Fdat=xri:pqdiss &rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation&rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:MR11874
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Hsiu, Pi-Cheng. "Scenario-Based Threat Detection and Analysis." 2004. http://www.cetd.com.tw/ec/thesisdetail.aspx?etdun=U0001-1307200410444800.
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Hsiu, Pi-Cheng, and 修丕承. "Scenario-Based Threat Detection and Analysis." Thesis, 2004. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/89041070010349583614.
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碩士國立臺灣大學
資訊工程學研究所
92
This thesis targets two essential issues in intrusion detection system designs: the optimization of rule selection and the attack discovery in attack analysis. A scenario-based approach is proposed to correlate malicious packets and to intelligently select intrusion detection rules to fire. We propose algorithms for rule selection and attack scenario identification. Potential threats and their relationship for a gateway and web-server applications are explored as an example in the study. The proposed algorithms are implemented over Snort, a signature-based intrusion detection system, for which we have some encouraging performance evaluation results.
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Jacinto, Tiago Trindade. "Scenario analysis on a hybrid organization." Master's thesis, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/104570.
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This thesis analyses Biovilla, a success case ofsustainable tourismin Portugal that is finally obtaining financial freedom. Having that in mind it is time to rethink what should Biovilla be in the future.How can it grow to have a bigger impact? What alterations to the environment are possible to happen and how should Biovilla react? Knowing thatthe research question was defined as “how should Biovilla grow until 2030?” anda scenario analysis was performed to identify a core strategy and plan how should Biovilla acton each scenario.
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Baksh, MA. "Accident scenario analysis for maritime operations." Thesis, 2018. https://eprints.utas.edu.au/28680/1/Baksh_whole_thesis.pdf.
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Over the years, there has been a significant increase in both size and complexity of processes in marine and offshore operations. One example of maritime operations is that of large-scale Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) processing facilities. Accidents in such facilities can be very complex and would be best characterised by evolving scenarios. This thesis reports on the development of a new methodology to incorporate evolving scenarios in a single model and predicts the likelihood of an accident. The methodology comprises; (a) evolving scenario identification, (b) accident consequence framework development, (c) accident scenario likelihood estimation, and (d) ranking of the scenarios. Resulting events in the present work are modelled using a Bayesian Network (BN) approach, which represents accident scenarios as cause-consequences networks. The methodology developed in this thesis is compared with case studies of ammonia and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from chemical and offshore process facility, respectively. The proposed method can differentiate the consequence of specific events and predict probabilities for such events along with continual updating of the consequence probabilities of fire and explosion scenarios being taken into account. The developed methodology can be used to envisage evolving scenarios that occur in the offshore oil and gas processing industry. However, with further modification, it can be applied to different sections of marine industry to predict the likelihood of such accidents.
Maritime transportation poses risks regarding possible accidents resulting in damage to vessels, crew members and to the ecosystem. The safe navigation of ships, especially in Arctic waters, is a growing concern to maritime authorities. This study proposes a new risk model to investigate the possibility of marine accidents such as collision, foundering and grounding. The model is developed using the BN. The proposed risk model has considered different operational and environmental factors that affect shipping operations. The application of the model is demonstrated through a case study of an oil-tanker navigating the Northern Sea Route (NSR). By running uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of the model, a significant change in the likelihood of the occurrence of accidental events is identified. The model suggests ice effect as a dominant factor in accident causation. The case study illustrates the priority of the model in investigating the operational risk of accidents. The developed methodology can be used to investigate the possibility of preventing and mitigating ship accidents in harsh and cold environments.
Collision avoidance in narrow channel is critical if no early warning is provided. In this thesis, a dynamic risk management system is proposed for the marine vessel so that it can be useful by warning the operator of a vessel of a potential collision threat while travelling along narrow trafficway. This model estimates the level of risk by taking into consideration vessel kinematics, different operational and environmental factors as well as human factors in a confined area and provides early warning. Five decision-making skills viz. general skills, management training, technical knowledge, emergency skills and sailing experience are employed as requirements in an emergency. The applicability of the proposed methodology has been demonstrated through two case scenarios in a narrow channel. The probability obtained through the proposed methodology can be used to make a real-time decision, such as situation assessment, appropriate and immediate action followed by the evasive action. The simulated result shows the increasing level of risk as the probability of warning level increases. Similarly, lower risk decreases as the situation crosses that threshold. The estimated risk allows early warning to take appropriate preventive and mitigative measures to avoid a collision and thus enhance the overall safety of shipping operations.
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Shu-Miau, Weng, and 翁叔淼. "Scenario Analysis of Sports Injuries in Baseball." Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/19652611858588264206.
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碩士亞洲大學
經營管理學系碩士在職專班
98
The purpose of this study is to discuss sports injuries in baseball by scenario analysis. Through a questionnaire survey, we found the factor sports injuries and lack of safety management on the baseball. According to the scenario analysis to identify injuries reason, and improve the baseball player sports injury prevention. The research subjects are the elementary school which has baseball team in Taichung. This student interviews 289 contact baseball players. The research finds: a positive correlation effect is found between unsafe environment, unsafe movement, lack of management and sports injuries. The result suggests that schools should maintain safety facilities equipment and shorten the time for repair. Injuries prevention will help to prevent or decrease the occurrence of the sports injuries. When injury occur, is important to make the correct and appropriate treatment. It not only can reduce the extent of injury and to avoid severe secondary damage, but shorten the recovery time.