Journal articles: 'Scenari planning'

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Fea, Alessandro. "Ripensare lo spazio aperto perturbano. Scenari per il contesto milanese." TERRITORIO, no. 60 (March 2012): 81–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/tr2012-060014.

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This paper refl ects on the future of peri-urban outdoor spaces. A construction of a brief picture of the general background and a description of the dynamics of the regional system of which the Milan context forms part is used to formulate important questions for the purpose of imagining possible confi gurations for cultivated areas within heavily urbanised environments.

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Ricci, Alessandro. "La sfida delle migrazioni nella geografia dell' incertezza. Immagini e scenari geopolitici." RIVISTA GEOGRAFICA ITALIANA, no. 4 (December 2020): 75–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/rgi2020-004004.

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Malcevschi, Sergio. "Reti ecologiche polivalenti ed alcune considerazioni sui sistemi eco-territoriali." TERRITORIO, no. 58 (September 2011): 54–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/tr2011-058008.

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Le reti ecologiche polivalenti esprimono la morfologia che il sistema eco-paesaggistico-territoriale dovrŕ assumere per ottimizzare l'adattamento del sistema uomoambiente nei confronti degli scenari critici futuri. Esse associano i temi della biodiversitŕ e dei servizi ecosistemici attivi al contenimento degli impatti ambientali potenzialmente negativi attraverso lo sfruttamento ottimale delle opportunitŕ del sistema eco-territoriale. Si inseriscono nei processi decisionali che accompagnano la pianificazione territoriale proponendosi come infrastruttura prioritaria accanto alle altre tradizionalmente considerate (trasportistiche, energetiche) e come scenario di riferimento sul medio periodo in sede di Vas. Una rete di questo tipo deve garantire un'adeguata base per la biodiversitŕ, partendo dallo scheletro di Natura 2000 e dal sistema dei Parchi, ma deve poi saper utilizzare le matrici intermedie, integrando ad esempio quanto previsto dalle nuove politiche per un'agricoltura multifunzionale.

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Vassallo, Ianira, Francesco Monaco, and Simone Tolosano. "Europan ‘Productive cities'. Il concorso come archivio di idee e scenari progettuali." TERRITORIO, no. 97 (January 2022): 182–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/tr2021-097021.

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Giovinazzi, Oriana. "Citta’ portuali e waterfront urbani: costruire scenari di trasformazione in contesti di conflitto." Méditerranée, no. 111 (June 1, 2008): 69–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.4000/mediterranee.2751.

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Tamini, Luca. "Dal cinema monosala al fenomeno Netflix: temi urbanistici emergenti." TERRITORIO, no. 95 (May 2021): 65–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/tr2020-095008.

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Il saggio restituisce alcuni temi aperti e questioniemergenti dal punto di vista urbanistico sulle dinamichee sugli scenari evolutivi delle sale cinematografiche in uncontesto di profondo mutamento.A partire dalla pluralità di geografie e tipologieinsediative presenti nell'area metropolitana milanese,il contributo prefigura alcune politiche attive diconsolidamento e potenziamento del sistema di offertain un'ottica di integrazione e complementarità trai tradizionali luoghi di fruizione collettiva e i nuoviprocessi di innovazione digitale.

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Salimbeni, Alice. "La favola urbana. Reimmaginare lo spazio attraverso la realizzazione collettiva di film finzionali e parodici." RIVISTA GEOGRAFICA ITALIANA, no. 3 (September 2022): 78–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/rgioa3-2022oa14591.

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Durante la mia ricerca di dottorato, ho organizzato un workshop a Bruxelles per esplorare il rapporto fra le donne bianche cisgenere e lo spazio urbano. A partire dalle esperienze urbane personali delle partecipanti abbiamo scritto tre storie di invenzione e le abbiamo trasformate in tre film collettivi, finzionali e parodici che esplorano ciascuno una diversa discriminazione urbana di genere. In queste storie, che ho chiamato "favole urbane", realtà e immaginazione si intrecciano creando nuovi scenari, e comunicando una morale politica sullo spazio e sul ruolo attivo che svolge nella produzione delle discriminazioni.

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Caggiano, Monica. "E' ritornato il tempo delle ciliegie nei jardins partagés di Parigi." SOCIOLOGIA URBANA E RURALE, no. 98 (July 2012): 28–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/sur2012-098003.

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Il paper presenta una ricerca sui "Jardins Partagés" (JPs) a Parigi e le recenti evoluzioni di questi giardini collettivi gestiti da associazioni di quartiere in terreni pubblici. I JPs, luoghi condivisi e spazi di promozione di legami sociali e culturali, sono capaci di creare una sorta di "effetto di straniamento" (Brecht) tale da suggerire scenari per un futuro sostenibile attraverso forme di autogoverno responsabile delle comunitŕ locali.

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Xiao, Yang, Qinli Xiong, and Kaiwen Pan. "What Is Left for Our Next Generation? Integrating Ecosystem Services into Regional Policy Planning in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China." Sustainability 11, no. 1 (December 20, 2018): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11010003.

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Land use/Land cover (LULC) changes as a result of policy planning influence ecosystem structures, processes, and functions, which are the basis for providing a wide range of ecosystem services (ES). There is an increasing consensus about the importance of integrating ES into ecological policy but quantifying the potential impacts of different policy on ES has proven difficult. We designed a remote sensing, geographic information system and scenario analysis-based approach to estimate and analyze the relationship between ES (soil conservation and carbon sequestration) and ecological policy designed to improve human welfare in the Chongqing municipality in the upper reaches of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China; a densely populated, highly modified watershed with serious soil erosion and flood hazard. Three alternative scenarios in 2050 were modeled for the Three Gorges Reservoir Area watershed. The model GEOMOD was used to predict future LULC changes due to policy planning. The ES models (Universal Soil Loss Equation model and Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model) were designed to inform decisions, with an aim to align economic forces with conservation. We examine policy effectiveness by comparing scenarios for 2050 (Scenario1: Maintain current policy with no considerations of ES; Scenario2: Integrate ES into policy planning; Scenario3: Integrate ES into policy planning in view of the need of local people). Scenario-based LULC change analysis revealed that if the current afforestation policy continues (scenario 1), total ES would be further increased in 2050 due to expansion of forest cover. However, by targeting policy to improve ES provision (scenarios 2 and 3), ecological risks of soil loss can be significantly reduced and carbon sequestration enhanced. Scenario 3, thus, provided the best future environmental development scenario considering the need of local people in each region for ES. This scenario will theoretically help the Three Gorges Dam to harvest more ecological benefits through improvements in soil conservation and carbon sequestration. This study highlights the observation that including ES in policy planning and has a great potential to generate opportunities to maximize ES. This study highlights that including ES in policy planning has a great potential to generate opportunities to maximize ES. Hence, there is a need to encourage proper implementation of ecological policy to maintain and improve ES.

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Costa, Paolo. "Aspetti sociali del risparmio energetico in ambito abitativo. Un modello teorico e un caso studio." SOCIOLOGIA URBANA E RURALE, no. 98 (July 2012): 125–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/sur2012-098009.

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Il saggio propone un modello teorico dei fattori sociali che intervengono nell'adozione di soluzioni tecnologiche orientate al risparmio energetico in ambito abitativo. Alcuni fattori sono direttamente legati alle caratteristiche dei residenti, altri attengono a campi anche molto distanti dagli scenari nei quale si attuano i loro comportamenti quotidiani. L'approfondimento sul caso Toscano č un'occasione per fare luce sulla complessitŕ delle relazioni in gioco e su alcuni nodi critici con cui la ricerca su questi temi deve necessariamente misurarsi.

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Alì, Alessandro. "Romano di Lombardia all'indomani del 20.02.2020: una postfazione." TERRITORIO, no. 93 (January 2021): 95–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/tr2020-093015.

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L'esplosione della emergenza sanitaria dovuta all'epidemia da Covid-19 ha reso necessaria questa postfazione, proprio quando il racconto su Romano di Lombardia si accingeva a concludersi. Essa non aspira a fare bilanci né a tracciare i contorni di probabili (o improbabili) scenari evolutivi delle città all'indomani della pandemia. Vuole essere invece una riflessione (nella forma di appunti di lavoro ancora dall'interno di una condizione di emergenza sanitaria) sulla tenuta delle idee che hanno alimentato i piani e i progetti prodotti in una condizione di ‘normalità' per il territorio di Romano di Lombardia e, eventualmente, sulla loro ri-messa a fuoco alla luce del fenomeno pandemico.

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de Vincenzo, Domenico. "La transizione energetica nell'attuale contesto globale." RIVISTA GEOGRAFICA ITALIANA, no. 1 (March 2022): 81–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/rgioa1-2022oa13368.

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La transizione energetica è un processo di trasformazione del mix di fonti primarie di energia, ma è anche un processo di cambiamento che implica una profonda trasformazione, che porti a una modificazione degli stili di vita e a una trasformazione dei processi economici, affinché si arrivi anche alla riduzione della domanda di energia. Messo da parte (almeno per il momento) il problema dell'esaurimento dei combustibili fossili, che per decenni ha occupato il dibattito sull'energia, vista la rinnovata vitalità nella produzione di petrolio, la transizione energetica è ora esclusivamente dedicata alla riduzione delle emissioni di gas serra e alla mitigazione delle cause del cambiamento climatico. Il processo di sostituzione dei combustibili fossili con energia pulita e rinnovabile, però, non può non tener conto degli aspetti economici (prezzo, domanda e offerta) e tecnici (capacità ecostanza produttiva) che condizionano l'utilizzo delle diverse fonti di energia. Gli scenari della transizione, dunque, dovrebbero tenere conto degli aspetti economici, ma spesso sono completamente avulsi da essi. Il contesto economico globale pone una sfida alla transizione energetica perlomeno sotto due aspetti: 1) la riduzione del prezzo del petrolio e 2) l'abbondante offerta di petrolio. Il prezzo del petrolio, in calo dal 2014 (anche se in ripresa nel 2021) è stato profondamente colpito dal crollo della domanda di energia causata dalla pandemia Covid-19. Questo crollo del prezzo può rendere problematica la transizione energetica, in quanto le fonti rinnovabili potrebbero diventare meno convenienti dei combustibili fossili. La pandemia, peraltro, ha reso improvvisamente obsoleti tutti gli scenari elaborati in precedenza producendo incertezza sugli sviluppi futuri della transizione energetica. L'abbondante offerta di petrolio (causa essa stessa della crisi del suo prezzo), a sua volta, accresce tale incertezza. Infatti, se fino al primo decennio degli anni 2000 era l'esauribilità del petrolio a aprire la strada alla transizione energetica, ora è la sua ampia disponibilità a ostacolarla: è necessario affrontare la transizione non a causa dell'esauribilità del petrolio, ma nonostante l'abbondanza di esso, per contrastare l'effetto serra.

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Freeman, Oliver, and Hugh M. Pattinson. "Exploring client scenarios associated with scenario planning." Futures 42, no. 4 (May 2010): 304–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.016.

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Scudo, Gianni, and Matteo Clementi. "La progettazione ambientale delle filiere alimentari orientata allo sviluppo bioregionale." TERRITORIO, no. 93 (January 2021): 26–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/tr2020-093004.

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Il testo presenta strumenti di analisi e progetto di filiere alimentari elaborati nella ricerca ‘Bioregione'. Lo studio mira ad approfondire i processi che connettono domanda e offerta in un ambito territoriale definito e a formulare scenari migliorativi. Le filiere interessano i principali alimenti che compongono la domanda aggregata associata alla ristorazione collettiva nelle diverse fasi, dalla produzione in campo al conferimento al centro cottura, al consumo e alla gestione degli scarti. Gli indicatori utilizzati sono la domanda energetica complessiva (energia primaria non rinnovabile), la contabilità di terreno agricolo produttivo per quantità di prodotto o pasto equivalente e il costo di produzione. Essi costituiscono strumenti sperimentali di riferimento per una pianificazione territoriale locale che metta al centro un nuovo modello metabolico campagnacittà ambientalmente sostenibile.

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Kunzmann, Klaus R. "Dopo la crisi economica globale: implicazioni sulle politiche per il futuro del territorio europeo." TERRITORIO, no. 58 (September 2011): 7–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/tr2011-058001.

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Il saggio si interroga sulle implicazioni territoriali di una crisi finanziaria non ancora conclusa che si ripercuote sulle economie locali europee. L'autore sottolinea la vulnerabilitŕ del ‘vecchio continente' e delle sue varietŕ regionali. A fronte della difficoltŕ a misurare analiticamente gli esiti spaziali della crisi, il saggio presenta cinque scenari di crescita europei che, in forma non necessariamente alternativa, alludono ad altrettante trame di possibili strategie di sviluppo spaziale nella dimensione continentale. Evocando i temi della societŕ della conoscenza, dell'economia creativa e della formazione permanente, della centralitŕ del paesaggio e dei contesti rurali, dei processi culturali e delle nuove produzioni, come quello dei molteplici legami con le economie emergenti a scala globale, il saggio ci conduce a considerare con realismo l'idea di un'Europa a due velocitŕ.

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Loda, Mirella, and Matteo Puttilli. "History (still) to eat. L' impatto della pandemia sul settore della ristorazione nel centro storico di Firenze." RIVISTA GEOGRAFICA ITALIANA, no. 4 (December 2022): 13–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/rgioa4-2022oa14992.

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Specialmente nei centri storici delle città d'arte, il settore della ristorazione è stato uno dei comparti economici dove più si sono avvertiti gli effetti delle misure contenitive della pandemia di Covid-19, interrompendo almeno temporaneamente un processo espansivo che in precedenti lavori si era definito come foodification. Tale concetto esprimeva una più ampia trasformazione funzionale delle aree centrali in luoghi sempre più marcatamente dedicati al loisir e a esperienze connotate dalla transitorietà, e dove il target di riferimento era incarnato in larga misura da visitatori e frequentatori occasionali. A partire dall'analisi dei dati raccolti su un arco quasi ventennale e ulteriormente aggiornati nell'ultimo biennio, il contributo analizza l'impatto della pandemia sul settore della ristorazione nel centro storico di Firenze e si interroga sui possibili scenari post-pandemici. I risultati, che mostrano la complessiva tenuta del settore, rivelano il carattere ormai fisiologico e non controvertibile dei processi di rifunzionalizzazione in atto nei centri storici; nondimeno, si suggeriscono alcune soluzioni per contenerne gli effetti maggiormente distorsivi.

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Tammaro, Rosanna, Deborah Gragnaniello, and Roberta Scarano. "From the physical learning spaces to the virtual classroom: the role of the teacher in the digitization era." Form@re - Open Journal per la formazione in rete 22, no. 1 (April 30, 2022): 340–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.36253/form-12635.

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In educational contexts, a careful space planning where the training process takes place is indispensable because it promotes changes and innovation and inclusion processes. With the distance learning the design of educational contexts is even more important: online learning environments have peculiar characteristics and, therefore, a simple transposition of traditional practices into virtual environments is not possible. Teaching professionalism and initial and in service training on digital competence and on the inclusion of pupils in virtual educational spaces are fundamental. Therefore, in this article we reflect on the characteristics of the physical and virtual educational spaces and on the role of the teacher in the new educational scenarios. Dagli spazi educativi fisici all’aula virtuale: il ruolo del docente nell’era della digitalizzazione. Nei contesti educativi, è indispensabile un’attenta progettazione dello spazio in cui si realizza il processo di insegnamento-apprendimento perché esso promuove cambiamenti e processi di innovazione e inclusione. Con la didattica a distanza, la progettazione dei contesti educativi è ancora più importante: gli ambienti di apprendimento online presentano caratteristiche peculiari e, pertanto, non è possibile una semplice trasposizione delle pratiche tradizionali negli ambienti virtuali. La professionalità docente e la formazione, iniziale e continua, sulle competenze digitali e sull’inclusione dei discenti negli spazi educativi virtuali sono fondamentali. Pertanto, in questo articolo riflettiamo sulle caratteristiche degli spazi educativi fisici e virtuali e sul ruolo del docente nei nuovi scenari educativi.

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Ciaffi, Daniela, and Emanuela Saporito. "Il diritto alla cura dei beni comuni come palestra di democrazia." SOCIOLOGIA URBANA E RURALE, no. 127 (March 2022): 39–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/sur2022-127004.

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L'incrocio tra il diritto e la sociologia urbana apre a scenari di sperimentazione di modelli democratici nuovi, permettendoci di ridefinire servizi pubblici, spazi urbani, territori come beni comuni. Secondo la prospettiva proposta, le pratiche sempre più diffuse di cittadinanza attiva, che si prende cura dei beni comuni, trasformano i cittadini/abitanti da utilizzatori/consumatori di servizi e spazi a prosumers, suggerendoci che siamo in una fase di cambio di paradigma nella rappresentazione e definizione delle istituzioni pubbliche. La scuola è proposta come campo concreto di riflessione, nel suo passaggio da servizio pubblico a bene comune, quando cioè si territorializza, diventando oggetto di cura di tutta la "comunità educante", per disegnarsi sui caratteri socio-spaziali del bisogno educativo.

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Li, Wei, Chong Chen, Jing Du, and Ling Xu. "A System Dynamic (SD) Model for Logistics Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)." Applied Mechanics and Materials 535 (February 2014): 217–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.535.217.

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Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) plays a role before the logistics planning carrying out, which can effectively avoid environmental problems caused by strategic errors. This paper adopts system dynamic software to set up SD model, and takes Dalians logistics planning as a case. Six alternative scenarios based on the plannings goal and direction are simulated. It is found that the integrated scenario turns out to be the best scenario, and this work can provide scientific decision basis for governments.

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Lotti, Patrizia, and Lorenza Orlandini. "Service-Learning for the interprofessional development of school-community partnership in the LifeComp framework." Form@re - Open Journal per la formazione in rete 22, no. 3 (December 31, 2022): 160–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.36253/form-13574.

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The paper presents a reflection on the LifeComp framework within the planning activities of Service-Learning projects carried out in mixed teams composed of teaching staff and educators from the non-profit sector. By considering the theme of interprofessionality as a central field of the development of the teaching profession within the educational scenarios generated by the pandemic, by national and international indications, the research focuses on the identification of the competences of the LifeComp framework present in the narratives produced by teachers and educators during the first phase of the project. Using service learning is functional to enable the teachers and educators involved to adopt an attitude of research and openness towards the other; at the same time, it is an approach that can provide a methodological framework for designing student-centred interventions and school-territory collaboration that simultaneously develop cognitive and educational skills. Il Service-Learning per lo sviluppo interprofessionale della collaborazione scuola-territorio nel quadro del LifeComp. Il paper presenta una riflessione sul framework LifeComp all’interno delle attività di progettazione di percorsi di Service Learning realizzate in equipe miste, composte da personale docente ed educatori del terzo settore. Considerando centrale il tema dell’interprofessionalità come ambito dello sviluppo della professione docente all’interno degli scenari educativi determinati dalla pandemia, dalle indicazioni nazionali e internazionali, la ricerca si focalizza sull’individuazione delle competenze del framework LifeComp presenti nelle narrazioni prodotte da docenti ed educatori nel corso della prima fase di avvio del percorso. L’apprendimento servizio è funzionale ad attivare nei docenti e negli educatori un atteggiamento di ricerca e apertura verso l’altro; allo stesso tempo è un approccio in grado di fornire una cornice metodologica per la progettazione di interventi centrati sullo studente e sulla collaborazione scuola-territorio che sviluppano contemporaneamente competenze di tipo cognitivo ed educativo.

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Maslikhina, V. Yu. "Scenario planning for the development of spatial economic and social systems: Methodological approaches." Regional Economics: Theory and Practice 18, no. 10 (October 15, 2020): 1839–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/re.18.10.1839.

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Subject. This article reviews and systematizes methodological approaches to generate scenarios and develop a scenario planning algorithm in relation to spatial socio-economic systems. Objectives. The article aims to analyze and classify scenarios and algorithms of scenario planning, as well as choose and justify an approach to scenario planning of the development of spatial socio-economic systems. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, comparison, and classification. Results. The article clarifies the definitions of Scenario and Scenario Planning and categorizes scenarios according to different criteria. It reveals the gap between the theory and practice of scenario planning in Russian regions. The article also offers certain recommendations on the use of scenarios in regional planning. Conclusions. The article concludes that the hybrid approach in scenario planning of the development of spatial socio-economic systems (countries, regions, cities, municipalities) is more preferable than the exploratory or normative ones.

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Moats, Jason B., Thomas J. Chermack, and Larry M. Dooley. "Using Scenarios to Develop Crisis Managers: Applications of Scenario Planning and Scenario-Based Training." Advances in Developing Human Resources 10, no. 3 (June 2008): 397–424. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1523422308316456.

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Kwon, Soon Ho, Donghwi Jung, and Joong Hoon Kim. "Development of a Multiscenario Planning Approach for Urban Drainage Systems." Applied Sciences 10, no. 5 (March 6, 2020): 1834. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10051834.

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A traditional urban drainage system (UDS) planning approach generally considers the most probable future rainfall scenario. However, this single scenario (i.e., scenario-optimal) planning approach is prone to failure under recent climatic conditions, which involve increasing levels of uncertainty. To overcome this limitation, an alternative is to consider multiple scenarios simultaneously. A two-phase multi-scenario-based UDS planning approach was developed. Scenario-optimal solutions were determined for a set of scenarios in Phase I, as the traditional planning approach, while common elements across the scenarios were identified and used to consider components-wise regret cost concept for Phase II optimization, from which a compromise solution was sought. The storm water management model was dynamically linked with the harmony search algorithm for each phase optimization model. The proposed approach was demonstrated in the planning of the grid-type drainage networks of S-city. The compromise solution was compared with the scenario-optimal solutions (Phase I) with respect to cost effectiveness and system performance under scenarios that were not considered in the planning phase.

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Coates, Joseph F. "Scenario planning." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 113 (December 2016): 99–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.10.043.

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Coates, Joseph F. "Scenario Planning." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65, no. 1 (September 2000): 115–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0040-1625(99)00084-0.

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Godet, Michel, Fabrice Roubelat, and Guest Editors. "Scenario Planning." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65, no. 1 (September 2000): 1–2. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0040-1625(99)00119-5.

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Enzmann, Dieter R., Norman J. Beauchamp, and Alexander Norbash. "Scenario Planning." Journal of the American College of Radiology 8, no. 3 (March 2011): 175–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jacr.2010.08.022.

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Erridge, S. "Scenario Planning." Clinical Oncology 19, no. 3 (April 2007): S11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.clon.2007.01.306.

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Lacher, Iara, Thomas Akre, William J. McShea, Marissa McBride, Jonathan R. Thompson, and Craig Fergus. "Engaging Regional Stakeholders in Scenario Planning for the Long-Term Preservation of Ecosystem Services in Northwestern Virginia." Case Studies in the Environment 3, no. 1 (December 31, 2019): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/cse.2018.001180.

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This case study describes the application of a framework for developing stakeholder-driven scenarios of the future. The purpose of these scenarios is to inform land use planning toward the protection of ecosystems and derivable ecosystem services in Northwestern Virginia. We held two scenario development workshops with regional experts in conservation, agriculture, land use planning, policy, and economic development to create scenarios of land use in the northern Piedmont and northern Shenandoah Valley of Virginia. We structured the workshops around a framework that guided stakeholders through several steps eventually resulting in four unique scenarios describing the region in 50 years. Scenario narratives were defined by the intersection of highly influential and uncertain drivers of change relevant to land use planning and ecosystem services. Participants from the northern Shenandoah Valley region selected population growth and climate change adaptation as their scenario defining drivers, while participants from the northern Piedmont region selected planning strategy and climate change impact as their scenario defining drivers. Participants fleshed out scenarios into descriptive narratives that incorporated qualitative and quantitative measures of change. Details from the scenario narratives informed land use change models to further quantify tradeoffs between land use planning decisions and ecosystem services. Individuals interested in using scenario planning to guide research efforts, conservation, or land use planning, or even to broaden perspectives on how to view the future, will find value in this case study.

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Jafari, Hamid, Ahmad Jonidi Jafari, Mahmoud Nekoei-Moghadam, and Salime Goharinezhad. "The use of uncertain scenarios in disaster risk reduction: a systematic review." foresight 21, no. 3 (May 30, 2019): 409–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-11-2018-0099.

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Purpose In recent years, futures study methods, especially scenario analysis, are used to plan for disaster and emergency management. Scenario method is suitable for public level policy making. Scenarios generated alternative descriptive futures in all of the development field such as disaster studies. This paper aims to systematically review the articles that generated scenarios in disaster management to attain gaps, challenges and opportunities related to use of scenario analysis in disasters. Design/methodology/approach This is a systematic review that was conducted based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The keywords that searched included “disaster,” “emergency,” “crisis,” “disruptive event,” “futures study,” “foresight,” “scenario,” “community-based scenario planning,” “participatory scenario planning,” “scenario planning” and “scenario analysis.” The Google Scholar, ISI Web of Science, Science Direct, PubMed and Scopus databases were searched. Findings A total of 981 article gathered after initial search between electronic databases. At final step, only ten articles included in the study. The selected articles compared according to many aspects. Most of the scenarios that developed in disaster management and planning concentrated on climate change and flooding related hazards. Many of studies developed three or four scenarios that it seems the number is suitable for disaster planning. Originality/value The paper serves as an original guideline for disaster planning.

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Van Lente, Harro, Jasper Willemse, Claartje Vorstman, and Johan F. Modder. "Scenario planning as policy instrument: Four scenarios for biotechnology in Europe." Innovation 5, no. 1 (September 2003): 4–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.5172/impp.2003.5.1.4.

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Yusuf, Sri Malahayati. "MODEL OF SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES APPLICATION BASED ON DISTRICT SPATIAL PLANNING IN MAMASA WATERSHED, SOUTH SULAWESI." Geoplanning: Journal of Geomatics and Planning 4, no. 2 (October 13, 2017): 263. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/geoplanning.4.2.263-272.

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Depletion of watershed carrying capacity cannot be omitted from mismanagement of the watershed. The integration between SWAT model and remote sensing data are able to identify, assess, and evaluate watershed problem as well as a tool to apply the mitigation of the problem. The aim of this study was to arrange the scenario of watershed management, and decide the best recommendation of sustainable watershed management of Mamasa Sub Watershed. The best recommendation was decided by hydrology parameters, e.i. surface runoff, sediment, and runoff coefficient. Hydrology characteristics of Mamasa Sub Watershed was analyzed based on land use data of year 2012 and climate data for period of 2010-2012. The scenarios were application of bunch and mulch in slope 1-15%; bunch terrace (scenario 1), mulch and strip grass in slope 15-25% (scenario 2), alley cropping in slope 25-40% (scenario 3), and combination scenario 1, 2, 3 with agroforestry in slope > 40% (scenario4). Surface runoff value of Mamasa Sub Watershed is 581.35 mm, while lateral flow, groundwater flow, runoff coefficient, and sediment yield of 640.72 mm, 228.17 mm, 0.29, and 187.213 ton/ha respectively. Based on the scenarios simulation, the fourth scenario was able to reduce surface runoff and sediment yield of 33.441% and of 51.213%, while the runoff coefficient declined to 0.194. Thereby, the fourth scenario is recommended to be applied in Mamasa Sub Watershed so that the sustainability in the watershed can be achieved.

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Yusuf, Sri Malahayati. "Model of Soil and Water Conservation Measures Application based on District Spatial Planning in Mamasa Watershed, South Sulawesi." Geoplanning: Journal of Geomatics and Planning 4, no. 2 (October 13, 2017): 263. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/geoplanning.4.2.263-274.

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Depletion of watershed carrying capacity cannot be omitted from mismanagement of the watershed. The integration between SWAT model and remote sensing data are able to identify, assess, and evaluate watershed problem as well as a tool to apply the mitigation of the problem. The aim of this study was to arrange the scenario of watershed management, and decide the best recommendation of sustainable watershed management of Mamasa Sub Watershed. The best recommendation was decided by hydrology parameters, e.i. surface runoff, sediment, and runoff coefficient. Hydrology characteristics of Mamasa Sub Watershed was analyzed based on land use data of year 2012 and climate data for period of 2010-2012. The scenarios were application of bunch and mulch in slope 1-15%; bunch terrace (scenario 1), mulch and strip grass in slope 15-25% (scenario 2), alley cropping in slope 25-40% (scenario 3), and combination scenario 1, 2, 3 with agroforestry in slope > 40% (scenario4). Surface runoff value of Mamasa Sub Watershed is 581.35 mm, while lateral flow, groundwater flow, runoff coefficient, and sediment yield of 640.72 mm, 228.17 mm, 0.29, and 187.213 ton/ha respectively. Based on the scenarios simulation, the fourth scenario was able to reduce surface runoff and sediment yield of 33.441% and of 51.213%, while the runoff coefficient declined to 0.194. Thereby, the fourth scenario is recommended to be applied in Mamasa Sub Watershed so that the sustainability in the watershed can be achieved.

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Bloom, Michael J., and Mary K. Menefee. "Scenario Planning and Contingency Planning." Public Productivity & Management Review 17, no. 3 (1994): 223. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3380654.

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Bezrucav, Stefan-Octavian, and Burkhard Corves. "Modelling Automated Planning Problems for Teams of Mobile Manipulators in a Generic Industrial Scenario." Applied Sciences 12, no. 5 (February 23, 2022): 2319. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app12052319.

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Flexible control strategies are required in industrial scenarios to coordinate the actions of mobile manipulators (e.g., robots and humans). Temporal planning approaches can be used as such control strategies because they can generate those actions for the agents that must be executed to reach the goals, from any given state of the world. To deploy such approaches, planning models must be formulated. Although available in the literature, these models are not generic enough such that they can be easily transferred to new use cases. In this work, a generic industrial scenario is derived from real scenarios. For this scenario, a generic planning problem is developed. To demonstrate their generality, the two constructs are configured for a new scenario, where custom grippers are assembled. Lastly, a validation methodology is developed for the generic planning problem. The results show that the generic industrial scenario and the generic planning problem can be easily instantiated for new use cases, without any new modelling. Further, the proposed validation methodology guarantees that these planning problems are complete enough to be used in industrial use cases. The generic scenario, the planning problems, and the validation methodology are proposed as standards for use when deploying temporal planning in industrial scenarios with mobile manipulators.

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Chen, Tser-Yieth, and Chi-Jui Huang. "A Two-Tier Scenario Planning Model of Environmental Sustainability Policy in Taiwan." Sustainability 11, no. 8 (April 18, 2019): 2336. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11082336.

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This study proposes a two-tier scenario planning model, consisting of scenario development and policy portfolio planning, to demonstrate the environmental sustainability policy planning process. Scenario development embodies future scenarios that incorporate the uncertainties regarding the decision values and technological alternatives. Policy portfolio planning is used to assess the selected policy alternatives under each scenario and to develop a robust and responsive plan. We organized first- and second-tier committees of 10–12 experts from diverse professional fields to undertake environmental sustainability policy planning in Taiwan. The first-tier committee generated three scenarios: “live at the mercy of the elements”, “industry convergence”, and “technology pilot”. The second-tier committee ensured that, from cradle-to-cradle (C2C), green supply chain management (GSCM), and industry symbiosis (IS), life-cycle type policies enhance green willingness and capabilities in the businesses. This is the first study to consider the first-tier process with scenario development and the second-tier process with policy portfolio planning for environmental sustainability, and contributes by considering intuitive logics approach-based scenarios and robust policies for extant portfolio plans, providing life-cycle- type policy profiles in environmental sustainability.

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Miesing, Paul, and Raymond K. Van Ness. "Exercise: Scenario Planning." Organization Management Journal 4, no. 2 (September 2007): 148–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/omj.2007.16.

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Young, Jimmy B., and Scott E. Hall. "Individual Scenario Planning." Journal of Workplace Behavioral Health 21, no. 1 (January 11, 2006): 39–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1300/j490v21n01_04.

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Stejskal, Jan. "Scenario-based Planning of State Material Reserves: Case Study of Latvia." Vojenské rozhledy 30, no. 4 (November 30, 2021): 74–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.3849/2336-2995.30.2021.04.074-092.

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The article deals with the issue of identifying required material reserves, also referred to as strategic or emergency reserves. These reserves are managed by state authority as part of national crisis preparedness. The article explores how scenarios can be used as a method for planning, i.e. determining adequate, realistic, and affordable material reserves. A scenario-based analysis, well proven in the defence planning domain, is identified as a method offering a high degree of analytical rigor and traceability of resulting requirements. Selected planning scenarios clearly must reflect national threat/hazard and risk assessments. They also have to reflect other important national policies, such as those governing economy, industry, health care, or environment. The illustrative conduct of the initial steps of the proposed method is demonstrated using Latvia’s security policy circumstances.

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Zhong, Jia Qing, Xiao Hui Zhang, Ke Ke Yan, Li Ye Ma, and Hua Wei Hu. "Comprehensive Decision-Making of Power Planning Including Clean Energy and Low-Carbon Electricity Technology." Applied Mechanics and Materials 347-350 (August 2013): 1383–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.347-350.1383.

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According to the characteristics of power planning, select four key planning scenarios, calculate the initial probability and simulation probability in sequence, and thus calculate the scenario probability. Define the screening considering the scenario probability and incidence of evaluation factor index for the typical scenario. In the decision-making process, the fuzzy decision method of interval numbers based on trapezoidal membership function is used to calculate the scheme membership, which overcomes the difficulty of precise calculation problem for planning index. And according to maximum membership degree for sorting, finally obtaining quality comparison results of the scenarios. As an example of a "twelfth five-year" planning of one city, an integrated decision making of power planning is developed, the simulation results show the scientificity and rationality of the method.

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PSHENYCHNA, Iryna, Yuliia PRODIUS, and Serhii IZOTOV. "Scenario planning for the development of foreign economic activity of the hotel business enterprise in the conditions of the world pandemic." Economics. Finances. Law, no. 6 (June 18, 2021): 9–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.37634/efp.2021.6.2.

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Introduction. The hotel business is traditionally considered a highly profitable area of foreign economic activity. The most significant risk factors are considered to be economic, political and social instability in countries and regions. In 2020, almost all global tourism and hotel businesses faced a serious challenge in their development – a severe crisis caused by the rapid spread of a pandemic of a new species of coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world. In the context of a global pandemic, to support the activities of the hotel business, it is necessary to clearly define the content and sequence of certain actions to achieve the goals, which determines the process of planning and forecasting the activities of the enterprise. Scenario planning is a fairly flexible process of describing possible future scenarios. This is part of strategic planning, which refers to the tools and technologies that manage future uncertainty. The purpose of the paper is to consider the scenario planning of the development of foreign economic activity of the hotel-type enterprise in conditions of economic uncertainty. The paper considers scenario planning as one of the most effective tools of strategic planning at the enterprise, which allows to forecast the development of events in the shortest possible time and update the planned indicators for its effective management. Results. In the course of this research the method of strategic planning is used – scenario planning, with the help of which all possible forecasts of events at the enterprise in crisis conditions are built. An analysis of hotel activities during the pandemic. The methods of scenario planning at the hotel business enterprise in the conditions of economic uncertainty are investigated. The difference between traditional and scenario approaches to strategic planning is clarified. Scenarios of possible events of the hotel business enterprise in the future in the conditions of a pandemic on the example of a scenario cross are developed. Conclusion. Scenario planning proved its effectiveness during the global pandemic, when hotel enterprises that applied scenario planning were ready for change and simply applied a different scenario, continuing to go with the flow. Scenarios for further development of foreign economic activity of the enterprise are determined.

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Go, In-Gyu. "Study on contents and method of practical education in future education through scenario planning." Journal of Korean Practical Arts Education 24, no. 3 (August 31, 2018): 31–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.29113/skpaer.2018.24.3.031.

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Freeth, Rebecca, and Scott Drimie. "Participatory Scenario Planning: From Scenario ‘Stakeholders’ to Scenario ‘Owners’." Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development 58, no. 4 (June 30, 2016): 32–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2016.1186441.

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Sales, Agust, Duberlí Geomar Elera Gonzáles, Thales Guilherme Vaz Martins, Gabriela Cristina Costa Silva, Aline Gonçalves Spletozer, Lucas Arthur de Almeida Telles, Marco Antonio Siviero, and Alexandre Simões Lorenzon. "Optimization of Skid Trails and Log Yards on the Amazon Forest." Forests 10, no. 3 (March 12, 2019): 252. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f10030252.

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Research highlights: We used Dijkstra Algorithm (DA) to define optimal allocation of yards in order to minimize total skid-trail’s distance in the Amazon Forest. DA minimized trails’ distances and associated transportation costs, leading to an even smaller value when the current planning was disregarded and suggesting the reduction of deleterious environmental externalities. Background and objectives: We sought to answer if it is possible to optimize distances and intrinsic costs in the management of Amazonian forests using DA. The objective was to minimize skid trails distances by best allocating yards using DA and to compare four scenarios of forest harvest planning in the Brazilian Amazon. Materials and methods: Tree census data from Gênesis-Salém Farm, state of Pará, Brazil, were used. The yards and roads located by Grupo Arboris (scenario 1) were compared to three alternative scenarios in terms of total skid distance, trails and road densities, and skidding costs for three successive harvests, seeking to minimize total skid-trails’ distance. Alternative scenarios were to keep the number of yards within work units (WU) and place them in the edge of existing roads (scenario 2); keep the number of yards within each WU (scenario 3); and place 23 yards, disregarding the current planning (scenario 4). Results: Total skid-trail’s distance, number of trees above optimal extraction distance and densities of skid trails and roads were smaller in scenarios 2, 3, and 4, compared to the current yard allocation (scenario 1). Scenario 4, with fewer restrictions, reduced skid-trails’ distances by 23%. Harvest costs decreased from scenario 1 to 4 in all three harvest cycles. Conclusions: DA allowed optimized distribution of yards and skid trails and generated efficient results for harvest planning. This reinforces the importance of optimized planning, which establishes satisfactory results in the effort to reduce costs and environmental impact keeping high efficiency.

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Stojanovic, Milica, Petar Mitkovic, and Mihailo Mitkovic. "The scenario method in urban planning." Facta universitatis - series: Architecture and Civil Engineering 12, no. 1 (2014): 81–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/fuace1401081s.

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Scenario planning techniques are increasingly gaining attention in the process of spatial and urban planning because of their usefulness in times of uncertainty and complexity. Scenario planning encourages strategic thinking and helps to overcome thinking limitations by creating multiple futures. In this way, it can help to shape the future according to the values and desires of society. Although scenario planning has been used a lot in the business world, there are scarce examples of its application in the field of urban planning. One of the reasons for this is the huge variety of methods and tools with no general guidelines for the implementation of the appropriate procedure and techniques for constructing scenarios in urban planning. Although each exercise of scenario planning must be unique in its context and actors, the methodological approach may be similar. For this reason, the main goal of this paper is to systematize the known methods for scenario construction, emphasize the featured techniques and tools, and consider the possibility of applying scenario methods in the contemporary city planning.

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Knies, Christian, and Frank Diermeyer. "Data-Driven Test Scenario Generation for Cooperative Maneuver Planning on Highways." Applied Sciences 10, no. 22 (November 18, 2020): 8154. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10228154.

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Future automated vehicles will have to meet the challenge of anticipating the intentions of other road users in order to plan their own behavior without compromising safety and efficiency of the surrounding road traffic. Therefore, the research area of cooperative driving deals with maneuver-planning algorithms that enable vehicles to behave cooperatively in interactive traffic scenarios. To prove the functionality of these algorithms, single test scenarios are used in the current body of literature. The use of a single, exemplary scenario bears the risk that the presented approach only works in the presented scenario and thus no general statement can be made about the performance of the algorithm. Furthermore, there is a risk that fictitious traffic scenarios may be solved which do not occur in reality. Therefore, we present a procedure for generating test scenarios based on real-world traffic datasets that require cooperation of at least one of the involved vehicles and thus are challenging from the perspective of cooperation. This procedure is applied to a large highway traffic dataset, resulting in a test scenario catalog that allows a comprehensive performance evaluation. The extracted scenarios are clustered according to the cooperative actions used to solve the respective scenario, which enables a more detailed understanding of the underlying cooperative mechanisms. In order to serve as a basis for making comparisons between different behavior planners and thus contribute to the development of future maneuver planning algorithms, a tool to extract the test scenarios from the used traffic dataset is made publicly available.

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Chaushevski, Anton, and Sofija Nikolova-Poceva. "Long Term Planning of Macedonian Electricity Supply." Energija, ekonomija, ekologija XXIV, no. 4 (December 2022): 85–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.46793/eee22-4.85c.

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In the paper alternatives for expansion of the Macedonian electricity supply system are presented. MESSAGE tool is used for modelling the system, for developing the scenarios, to analyse cost optimal energy pathways and to determine the optimal electricity generation technology mix. The calculations for the period 2020-2050 are made in a 5-year interval. Two scenarios are developed: Scenario 1 – BAU (Business as Usual) scenario, where the current energy structure prevailed, with trends like the current development. The electricity demand is satisfied by coal-fired thermal power plants, gas-fired thermal power plants, hydro power plants and renewable power plants. Scenario 2 – Green scenario, where gas-fired thermal power plants and nuclear power representative with small modular reactors are base load technologies, and also intensive construction of production capacities on renewable energy sources is forced. By making further analysis, the possibility of flexibility in the construction of new facilities within the interval, economic indicators, and appropriate impact on the environment are obtained. In order to make an economic analysis for a particular technology, calculations are made for parameters that are standard for projects, such as: net present value, benefit – cost ratio, payback period and internal rate of return. The environmental impact is analysed of aspect of CO2 emissions.

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Tian, Chuan, Guohui Feng, Shuai Li, and Fuqiang Xu. "Scenario Analysis on Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions Reduction Potential in Building Heating Sector at Community Level." Sustainability 11, no. 19 (September 29, 2019): 5392. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11195392.

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Energy consumption and carbon emissions of building heating are increasing rapidly. Taking Liaobin coastal economic zone as an example, two scenarios are built to analyze the potential of energy consumption and CO2 emissions reduction from the aspects of laws, regulations, policies and planning. The baseline scenario refers to the traditional way of energy planning and the community energy planning scenario seeks to apply community energy planning within the zone. Energy consumption and CO2 emission are forecast in two scenarios with the driving factors including GDP growth, changes in population size, energy structure adjustment, energy technology progress, and increase of energy efficiency. To improve accuracy of future GDP and population data prediction, an ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model) (1,1,1) model is introduced into GDP prediction and a logistics model is introduced into population prediction. Results show that compared with the baseline scenario, energy consumption levels in the community energy planning scenario are reduced by 140% and CO2 emission levels are reduced by 45%; the short-term and long-term driving factors are analyzed. Policy implications are given for energy conservation and environmental protection.

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Rezaei, Abolfazl, Bahador Samadzadegan, Hadise Rasoulian, Saeed Ranjbar, Soroush Samareh Abolhassani, Azin Sanei, and Ursula Eicker. "A New Modeling Approach for Low-Carbon District Energy System Planning." Energies 14, no. 5 (March 3, 2021): 1383. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14051383.

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Designing district-scale energy systems with renewable energy sources is still a challenge, as it involves modeling of multiple loads and many options to combine energy system components. In the current study, two different energy system scenarios for a district in Montreal/Canada are compared to choose the most cost-effective and energy-efficient energy system scenario for the studied area. In the first scenario, a decentral energy system comprised of ground-source heat pumps provides heating and cooling for each building, while, in the second scenario, a district heating and cooling system with a central heat pump is designed. Firstly, heating and cooling demand are calculated in a completely automated process using an Automatic Urban Building Energy Modeling System approach (AUBEM). Then, the Integrated Simulation Environment Language (INSEL) is used to prepare a model for the energy system. The proposed model provides heat pump capacity and the number of required heat pumps (HP), the number of photovoltaic (PV) panels, and AC electricity generation potential using PV. After designing the energy systems, the piping system, heat losses, and temperature distribution of the centralized scenario are calculated using a MATLAB code. Finally, two scenarios are assessed economically using the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) method. The results show that the central scenario’s total HP electricity consumption is 17% lower than that of the decentral systems and requires less heat pump capacity than the decentral scenario. The LCOE of both scenarios varies from 0.04 to 0.07 CAD/kWh, which is cheaper than the electricity cost in Quebec (0.08 CAD/kWh). A comparison between both scenarios shows that the centralized energy system is cost-beneficial for all buildings and, after applying the discounts, the LCOE of this scenario decreases to 0.04 CAD/kWh.

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Konno, Noboru, Ikujiro Nonaka, and Jay Ogilvy. "Scenario Planning: The Basics." World Futures 70, no. 1 (January 2, 2014): 28–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02604027.2014.875720.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Scenari planning'

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