Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Scenari planning'
Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles
Consult the top 50 dissertations / theses for your research on the topic 'Scenari planning.'
Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.
You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.
Browse dissertations / theses on a wide variety of disciplines and organise your bibliography correctly.
Di, Nicola Marco. "Un servizio di route planning per scenari di mobilità elettrica." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2014. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/7209/.
Full textCASARTELLI, VERONICA MARIA. "La gestione dei rischi naturali: la costruzione di scenari per la pianificazione di Protezione Civile." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/621.
Full textThe present study is composed of three main sections. The first, covering the first two chapters, deals with references to knowledge: in order to define the worldwide scenario to which this study is referred, data on really occurred natural disaster and on possible future events are analyzed, considering also the probable influence of the on-going climate changes. The second part, chapters 3-4-5, is a sort of downscaling to the European and Italian territory of the first two chapters’ analysis. The same methodology is detailed and implemented for the analysis of a particular event’s type: flood risk (in Europe and Italy). Third section is about the methodological contribution of the study: a new approach to civil protection planning at local level is suggested, with a particular focus on flood risk scenarios. This new civil protection planning methodology has been applied to a real context and the relative case study is presented.
CASARTELLI, VERONICA MARIA. "La gestione dei rischi naturali: la costruzione di scenari per la pianificazione di Protezione Civile." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/621.
Full textThe present study is composed of three main sections. The first, covering the first two chapters, deals with references to knowledge: in order to define the worldwide scenario to which this study is referred, data on really occurred natural disaster and on possible future events are analyzed, considering also the probable influence of the on-going climate changes. The second part, chapters 3-4-5, is a sort of downscaling to the European and Italian territory of the first two chapters’ analysis. The same methodology is detailed and implemented for the analysis of a particular event’s type: flood risk (in Europe and Italy). Third section is about the methodological contribution of the study: a new approach to civil protection planning at local level is suggested, with a particular focus on flood risk scenarios. This new civil protection planning methodology has been applied to a real context and the relative case study is presented.
Thomson, Nicolas Maxwell, and n/a. "Scenario planning in Australian government." University of Canberra. Busisness & Government, 2006. http://erl.canberra.edu.au./public/adt-AUC20061129.091600.
Full textГончаренко, Т. П. "Сценарне планування як сучасний інструмент стратегічного управління банком." Thesis, Українська академія банківської справи Національного банку України, 2011. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/63141.
Full textІn this paper the authors investigated the economic substance of the concept of "scenario planning", made definition of the concept of "scenario planning" proposed by the author's view on the process of scenario planning in the bank.
Wright, Alexis Duncan. "Scenario planning and strategizing : an integrated approach." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2007. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/11630/.
Full textD'Acierno, Charlotte, Clarence Lee, and Jaehun Woo. "Ferrous futures : scenario planning for global steel." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2021. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/132764.
Full textCataloged from the official pdf of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 186-189).
2 trillion kilograms of steel are produced around the world on an annual basis, enough to construct 17,000 Birds Nest Stadiums, 31,000 Empire State Buildings, or 480,000 Guggenheim Bilbao skeletons. If all of this steel were to fill Central Park, this single ingot would be nearly 10 meters tall. If this steel were to wrap around the earth, it would circle the equator more than 3 times. As populations grow and urban centers densify, so too will our material dependence. This thesis combines methods from scientific research and scenario planning to develop a series of speculative futures as a response to this ever-changing and challenging environment. These scenarios provide plausible futures that operate within the confines of the current capitalist system; they highlight the absurdity of our current practice without becoming absurdly unrelatable. The goal of scenario design is not to produce an alternative material but to question the consequences of our current practice, while acknowledging that we as designers operate within a larger geopolitical context. While there are many disciplines involved in the global steel industry, architecture is still culpable. At 56%, the built environment is the single largest consumer of steel. In imagining these scenarios, we reconstruct our material culture and the effects that these speculations might have in the complex networks in which this material is embedded. "They allow us to prepare for the future...by providing a context for speaking about the unspeakable." While this thesis questions the pervasiveness of steel in the built environment, it is our hope that this reciprocal research-design methodology could be expanded or applied to other issues of global complexity.
by Charlotte D'Acierno, Clarence Lee and Jaehun Woo.
M. Arch.
M.Arch. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Architecture
Nicol, Paul W. "Scenario planning as an organisational change agent /." Full text available, 2005. http://adt.curtin.edu.au/theses/available/adt-WCU20060327.164011.
Full textMoayer, Sorousha. "Robust intelligent scenario planning for industrial systems." Thesis, Moayer, Sorousha (2009) Robust intelligent scenario planning for industrial systems. PhD thesis, Murdoch University, 2009. https://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/3493/.
Full textNicol, Paul. "Scenario planning as an organisational change agent." Thesis, Curtin University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/2127.
Full textNicol, Paul. "Scenario planning as an organisational change agent." Curtin University of Technology, Graduate School of Business, 2005. http://espace.library.curtin.edu.au:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=16321.
Full textChange of mind-set was not necessarily needed for a change of strategic direction, which could be explained using a political metaphor. However, for cultural change to be effected, there was a need for operatives to identify with it. It was concluded from this case that unless change and/or the change process were adapted to resonate with the world views of the operatives, it was unlikely it would become embedded in the organisation and may be resisted. Conceptual ecologies needed to be explored for this adaptation to occur.
McMurray, Gerald. "Macroeconomic scenario building for Strategic National Defense Planning." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2001. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA401550.
Full textKrishnan, Vinod. "Scenario Planning Process of Energy Companies in Sweden." Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekonomi och organisation (Avd.), 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-35586.
Full textAnderson, Paul. "The business idea: problems of readiness and abandonment as a prerequisite to scenario thinking and planning." Thesis, Curtin University, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/1442.
Full textAkgul, Edvin, and Gabriel Wadsten. "Scenario Planning : Preparing for the future during uncertain times." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Företagsekonomiska institutionen, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-446453.
Full textLindh, Björn. "Four stories about the future - Exploring possible futures for the technical writer in a collaborative media landscape." Thesis, Malmö högskola, Fakulteten för kultur och samhälle (KS), 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-23369.
Full textBoasson, Yishai 1973. "An evaluation of scenario planning for supply chain design." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/28504.
Full textIncludes bibliographical references (leaves 49-52).
When trying to envision what the future might look like, different methods of forecasting are often used. However, there is a growing consensus that discontinuity and abrupt change are inherent to the very nature of the future and should be incorporated into futurist studies. One such study is the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics' Future of Supply Chain 2020 (SC2020). This paper reviews the future-studies method of Scenario Planning and evaluates its applicability to the SC2020 project.
by Yishai Boasson.
M.Eng.in Logistics
Fu, Xin. "Developing an Integrated Scenario-based Urban Resilience Planning Support System." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1505209563652198.
Full textNowack, Martin. "Possibilities of scenario planning for sanitation organizations facing demographic change." Doctoral thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2013. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-98554.
Full textThe sanitation sector in Germany is challenged by an increasingly turbulent environment. Due to the long use-life of the infrastructure and its capital intensity, the sector is characterized by low rates of return, high fixed-costs and vulnerability to path dependency. This became particularly obvious in the last years within the context of demographic change, when a decreasing population led to the loss of fee payers, and was intensified by a considerable decline in the water demand per capita, which caused increasing wastewater fees. The traditional planning instruments in the sanitation sector rely mainly on forecasts and forward projections, while disregarding key dynamics of the surrounding political-legal, economic, societal, technological and environmental framework conditions. Therefore, this dissertation assesses if the low adaptive capacity of the sanitation sector, which became obvious with demographic change, can be enhanced by strengthening the long range planning competencies by means of scenario planning. The dissertation evaluates the possibilities of scenario planning as alternative planning instrument and explores the predictive as well as the explorative possibilities in two separate research streams. The predictive research stream analyzes the specific impacts of demographic change on wastewater fees. The focus lies on a short time horizon and one specific trend. The latter explorative research stream is addressed by a Delphi-based scenario study, in which the most relevant future challenges of the sanitation sector are identified and summarized in four scenarios
Brands, Christian. "Scenario-based strategic planning and strategic management in family firms." Doctoral thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2013. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-125931.
Full textMott, Lacroix Kelly, Ashley Hullinger, Mark Apel, William Brandau, and Sharon B. Megdal. "Using Scenario Planning to Prepare for Uncertainty in Rural Watersheds." College of Agriculture, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/593579.
Full textPlanning for an uncertain future presents many challenges. Thinking systematically and creatively about what is in store through a process called scenario planning can help illuminate options for action and improve decision-making. This guide focuses on a process for developing scenarios to help communities and watershed groups explore what might happen in the years to come, make more informed decisions today, and build a watershed management process. The systematic approach to scenario planning described here is based on the lessons learned through a yearlong scenario planning process in the Upper Gila Watershed in southeastern Arizona and Water Resource Research Center’s (WRRC) research on scenario planning.
Heynes, Wynford Gustav. "Selection of multicriteria decision making methodologies in scenario based planning." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/14722.
Full textThis dissertation investigates the application of Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) methodologies to the area of scenario based policy planning. We examine how the tools of MCDM can be used to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) that would allow management or policy planners to resolve conflicting goals and interests. Ideally, the resolution would be obtained by the various decision makers (DMs) in such a manner, that it satisfies all the relevant interest groupings at a maximum level of achievement for all concerned. This is not always possible and compromises need to be made that are fair and equitable to all the relevant interests. Stewart et al. (1993), in a report entitled: "Scenario Based Multicriteria Policy Planning for Water Management in South Africa", develop the principles of a procedure for implementing scenario based multicriteria policy planning. Their iterative procedure is illustrated in figure 2.1, chapter 2, of this paper. In this dissertation, we refine certain parts of this procedure and the two areas in particular that we have looked at are: (1) filtering a large set of policy scenarios (Background Set), that could be a continuum, to form a smaller set (Foreground Set), and (2) further reducing the smaller set to form a solution set of policy scenarios. (The generic terms "Background Set" and "Foreground Set" are defined in section 2.1 of chapter 2.) The main objectives of this study were therefore mainly twofold and are as follows: (1) to determine what MCDM methods are relevant to natural resources management (using water as a case study), and (2) to investigate how these methods need to be adopted for use in an interactive DSS. We address the first objective by surveying the literature in an attempt to identify potential MCDM approaches that are suitable to (i) reduce a large set of alternatives, analogous to the Background Set, to a more manageable smaller set, analogous to the Foreground Set of alternatives, and (ii) refine this Foreground Set in order to present the DMs with a solution set of alternatives from which University of Cape Town they will make their final selection. The literature has until now not dealt explicitly with these two issues and we had to adapt certain MCDM approaches, many of which have been developed in a linear programming context, to suit our purposes.
KREMER, VALERIE JACOBS. "TOWARDS EXPANDING A METHODOLOGY: UTILIZING SCENARIO PLANNING IN FASHION FORECASTING." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2002. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1022782166.
Full textRico, Florentino Antonio. "Emergency department capacity planning for a pandemic scenario : nurse allocation." [Tampa, Fla] : University of South Florida, 2009. http://purl.fcla.edu/usf/dc/et/SFE0003245.
Full textSainte, Catherine Maxime. "Motion planning for an AGV fleet in a logistics scenario." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-272114.
Full textI takt med att lager blir mer autonoma ökar antalet AGV:er (Autonomous Guided Vehicles). I detta examensarbete studeras problemet att styra dessa AGV:er så att de på ett effektivt och säkert sätt undviker kollisioner med både varandra och människor, samt inte orsakar obehag genom att köra för nära människor. De studerade AGV:erna är av typen “unicycle” och kan ofta, men inte alltid, kommunicera med varandra. Ett antal möjliga lösningar identifieras, anpassas och utvärderas i olika scenarier och erbjuder en förbättring i jämförelse med "Hybrid Reciprocal Velocity Obstacles (HRVO)" i fall där kommunikation inte sker.
Gaskill-Clemons, Robert John. "Scenario Planning for Organizational Adaptability: The Lived Experiences of Executives." ScholarWorks, 2018. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/5078.
Full textAnderson, Paul. "The business idea: problems of readiness and abandonment as a prerequisite to scenario thinking and planning." Curtin University of Technology, Curtin Business School, 1999. http://espace.library.curtin.edu.au:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=10209.
Full textlevels were isolated by copying the core NUD*IST database four times. A copy was assigned to each organisational group wherein interviews belonging to the assigned group were retained, and the remainder deleted, thereby allowing the differences between each group to emerge. Elements of the NUD*IST index system for the core and four derived databases were then exported to Decision Explorer for graphical representation and gap analysis. Narrative analysis was applied to relate the study's findings.Key internal and external factors were identified as both driving and hindering evolution of FPWA's corporate culture. It was in these areas that key insights to the meta value of the study emerged. The key driving external force was the changing face of sexual health community issues, specifically the expansion of services beyond women's health to cover men's, gay, lesbian and special need groups-FPWA is about sex (positive external force).The question of who should pay for sexual health services is also challenged. Concerns over the withdrawal of government funding (negative external force) and a lack of perceived direction (negative internal force) by members at the organisational and technical levels, has led to behaviour aimed at corporate survival and maintenance of the status quo. Many staff at FPWA were interpreted as clinging tightly to social justice, women's rights issues, reflecting the humanitarian (positive internal force) value-based aspects that have sustained FPWA's service over its twenty-five years of service.The conceptual framework associated with the business idea proved to be essentially a system that maps the organisation's corporate and commercial rationale. The systemic insights that emerged from the study at FPWA enabled the researcher to build a four level hierarchical model of systemic appreciation with van der Heijden's framework as the ++
foundation. Issues of corporate age and stage of growth, systemic archetype and the key question facing the scenario planning team made up the higher levels of an emergent model of scenario planning readiness. The critical thinking associated with documenting the organisational history and heritage in the form of the business idea system has therefore generated a crucial link in the corporate and scenario planning process: the articulation of the key question as a catalyst to the next stage of corporate strategy formulation.
Karlsson, Matilda, and Karin Leander. "How to face the future? : A model for scenario planning at VLC." Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-10246.
Full textIn this report a model for logistics activities at Volvo Logistics Corporation, VLC, in the future has been constructed. The study is part of a project called Vision 2015 & Beyond, which started in the beginning of 2006, and focuses on what changes in the business environment that VLC as a TPL provider faces in the future. Within the scope of this project threats in the business environment as well as internal issues that are considered as concerns for the future are identified. The already identified threats are complemented and investigated by the researchers and further structured into a model in this report. The model shall be used as a tool in scenario planning within VLC. As to guide the practitioners in using the model a manual which describes the construction of the model and how it is going to be used has been set up. The model is adapted to VLC's activities within the automotive industry and their directives have continuously been taken into account, resulting in a model specific for VLC.
Theories in scenario planning and modelling has been revised as to construct the model, and as a result of this four types of components has been determined as to constituting in the model. Those components are; targets, scenario agenda, variables and driving forces. The process of identifying the different components was conducted step wisely, starting with the targets. The targets of the model represent what VLC want to focus on in the future, i.e. what is considered as important performance indicators. Transportation costs, Customer satisfaction, Security & Safety, Environment and Market Share have been chosen as the targets in the model. Next the components which VLC have a concern about, and that have an impact on those targets, are identified and decomposed starting with the areas on the scenario agenda and ending with determining the driving forces.
The model is built in two dimensions, one external part that represents the business environment, i.e. what VLC can not affect, and the second, the internal part, which represents the organisation itself. Both parts are constructed out of the type of components mentioned earlier and are connected by the targets In each part of the model relations among the components exist, however it is only the most important out of VLC’s perspective that takes part in the final network in the model.
The manual explains to the practitioner the concept behind the model and how it should be used. To verify the guidelines in the manual a mini-scenario was constructed. The mini-scenario is a fictitious case, which is thought to resemble those that VLC will use the model for in the future. In the mini-scenario presented in this report a future where the Kyoto Protocol implies transports are set up. The mini-scenario has an impact on a certain number of driving forces in the business environment, and by following the manual areas of recommendations for VLC's behaviour as to face this change will be generated.
The result of the study is a kit consisting of a model and an accompanying manual for VLC to use in scenario planning. The researchers have focused on constructing a model that is easy to understand for those that work within VLC, however to be able to use it in a proper way it is necessary to be familiar with VLC’s logistic activities. It is preferable to work in teams when using the model since the model is based on qualitative reasoning. Limits in time and resources has left quantification out of the scope in this report, but the researchers believe that the model could be improved and extended in that direction if it is found desirable in the future. The model is not static, rather the framework that exist today should be complemented in the future when new concerns are discovered, old ones can be disregarded etcetera.
The model offers VLC a structured methodology as to consider and respond to changes in the business environment.
Star, Jonathan, Erika L. Rowland, Mary E. Black, Carolyn A. F. Enquist, Gregg Garfin, Catherine Hawkins Hoffman, Holly Hartmann, Katharine L. Jacobs, Richard H. Moss, and Anne M. Waple. "Supporting adaptation decisions through scenario planning: Enabling the effective use of multiple methods." ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/622731.
Full textPENNA, DEBORA DIAS JARDIM. "DEFINITION OF THE STREAMFLOW SCENARIO TREE TO LONG-TERM OPERATION PLANNING." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2009. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=14867@1.
Full textNo modelo atualmente utilizado para o planejamento da operação de médio prazo do Sistema Interligado Nacional, a incerteza referente às afluências é considerada explicitamente no cálculo de valores da função de custo futuro bem como ao se percorrer o espaço de estados através da utilização de cenários hidrológicos multivariados. O conjunto de todas as possíveis realizações do processo estocástico de afluências, ao longo de todo horizonte de planejamento, forma uma árvore de cenários. Esta árvore representa todo o universo probabilístico sobre o qual é efetuado o processo de otimização da operação energética. Como a árvore possui uma cardinalidade bastante elevada, torna-se impossível do ponto de vista computacional percorrer completamente a árvore. Portanto, apenas uma porção da árvore (sub-árvore) é percorrida. Atualmente a sub-árvore é definida utilizando amostragem aleatória simples. Este trabalho tem o objetivo de propor um método para a definição da sub-árvore a ser visitada durante o processo do cálculo da política ótima de operação por programação estocástica dual com o intuito de tornar mais robusto os resultados obtidos por esta política de operação em relação a variações no número de cenários das simulações forward e backward e em relação a variações da amostra de cenários hidrológicos utilizada. Duas propostas são aplicadas na definição da sub-árvore: (i) utilizar a amostragem por hipercubo latino ou amostragem descritiva no modelo de geração de cenários hidrológicos multivariados, e (ii) aplicar técnicas estatísticas multivariadas capazes de agrupar objetos similares em determinados grupos (técnicas de agregação). Estas propostas podem ser aplicadas separadamente ou em conjunto.
In the planning operation the currently used model in the long-term operation planning of the Brazilian Interconnected System, the uncertainty concerning streamflow is considered explicitly in the estimation of the expected cost-to-go function, as well as in the covering of the state space, by the use of multivariate hydrological scenarios. The set of all possible realizations of the streamflow stochastic process throughout the planning horizon forms a scenario tree. This tree represents the entire probabilistic universe on which are calculated the optimal operation strategies. As the scenario tree of the long-term operation planning problem has a high cardinality, makes it impossible to visit the complete tree due to computational effort. Therefore, only a portion of the tree (sub-tree) is covered. Currently the sub-tree is selected using the Monte-Carlo method with classical simple random sampling. The objective of this work is to propose a method for defining the sub-tree to be visited during the calculation of the optimal operating strategy for the Brazilian hydro-thermal power system by stochastic dual dynamic programming in order to obtain more robust results from this operation policy with regard to variations in the number of scenarios of forward and backward simulations, and variations in the sample hydrological scenario. There are two proposals for definition of the sub-tree: (i) change the simple random sampling to latin hypercube sampling or descriptive sampling in the multivariate streamflow scenario generation model, and (ii) apply multivariate statistical techniques to develop criteria that allow grouping similar objects in certain groups (clustering techniques). The proposals can be applied together or separately.
Sánchez-Valero, Miguel Ángel. "Merging qualitative and quantitative criteria for freight investment using scenario planning." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/68902.
Full textCataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 164-168).
Freight transportation is vital to the economy of the United States. The total volume of freight moving inside the nation is expected to continue growing, while the U.S. transportation system is aging and becoming more costly to maintain. The revenue streams that allow for its preservation and expansion are decreasing rapidly. Because resources are scarce and long-range consequences difficult to anticipate, great care must be placed in freight transportation investment decisions, a complex process usually involving many stakeholders with diverse interests, modal and jurisdictional silos, diverse and vocal constituents, and a set of final system users that are typically removed from the decision-making process. This thesis explores how freight investment decisions can be helped by the use of scenario planning, a collaborative approach that enhances consensus-building and helps organizations to shift from prediction to preparation for the future, converting uncertainty into a competitive advantage. First, a review of the relevant literature is conducted in order to present a comprehensive description of scenario planning and the transportation planning process. Afterwards, case studies are presented to picture the observed practices in transportation infrastructure planning at different stages of a project lifecycle, followed by a characterization of past and current uses of scenario planning in transportation investment decisions. At that point, a methodology to evaluate alternative investments, strategies or policies under different scenarios is introduced, providing a hypothetical example of use. Finally, a list of recommendations are identified and explained.
by Miguel Ángel Sánchez-Valero.
S.M.in Transportation
M.Eng.in Logistics
Eriksson, Oskar. "Scenario dose prediction for robust automated treatment planning in radiation therapy." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-302568.
Full textCancer är ett samlingsnamn för sjukdomar som karaktäriseras av onormal celltillväxt och betraktas som en ledande dödsorsak globalt. Det finns olika typer av cancerbehandling, varav en är strålterapi. Inom strålterapiplanering är det viktigt att säkerställa att tillräckligt med strålning ges till tumören, att friska organ skonas, och att osäkerheter som felplacering av patienten under behandlingen räknas med. För att minska arbetsbelastningen på kliniker används data-driven automatisk strålterapiplanering för att generera behandlingsplaner till nya patienter baserat på tidigare levererade behandlingar. I denna uppsats föreslår vi en ny metod för robust automatisk strålterapiplanering där en djupinlärningsmodell tränas till att deformera en dos i enlighet med en mängd potentiella scenarion som motsvarar de olika osäkerheterna medan vissa statistiska egenskaper bibehålls från originaldosen. De predicerade scenariodoserna används sedan i ett robust optimeringsproblem där målet är att hitta en behandlingsplan som är robust mot dessa osäkerheter. Resultaten visar att den föreslagna metoden för dosdeformation ger realistiska doser av hög kvalitet, vilket i sin tur kan leda till robusta doser med högre doskonformitet än tidigare metoder men på bekostnad av doshomogenitet.
Van, de Putte Alexander. "The evolution of scenario planning : a perspective from a capital-intensive, slow clockspeed industry." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2013. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.608140.
Full textOLIVEIRA, FERNANDO LUIZ CYRINO. "NEW APPROACH TO GENERATING STREAMFLOW SCENARIO TO LONG-TERM ENERGETIC OPERATION PLANNING." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2010. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=15500@1.
Full textO modelo autorregressivo periódico da família Box & Jenkins, PAR(p), é empregado na modelagem e geração das séries de vazões hidrológicas e/ou de energias naturais afluentes utilizadas no modelo de otimização do despacho hidrotérmico no Brasil. Recentemente, alguns aspectos da modelagem têm sido alvo de estudos e diversas pesquisas vêm sendo realizados. Inicialmente, este trabalho visou o estudo da fase de identificação das ordens p dos modelos, fundamental para a correta definição da estrutura de modelagem e para a geração de cenários sintéticos. Atualmente, a identificação é feita com base na avaliação da significância dos coeficientes da função de autocorrelação parcial (FACP), baseados na aproximação assintótica de Quenouille. A proposta deste estudo foi a aplicação da técnica de computação intensiva Bootstrap para estimar a real significância dos referidos coeficientes. O segundo objetivo deste trabalho foi o emprego da mesma técnica com vistas à geração de cenários. A metodologia adotada atualmente ajusta uma distribuição Lognormal com três parâmetros para a geração de ruídos aleatórios, o que parece causar uma não-linearidade indesejável ao modelo original. Neste trabalho, os próprios resíduos gerados pelo modelo PAR(p), quando aplicado às séries históricas, foram utilizados na geração dos cenários. Os resultados mostraram que o Bootstrap levou à identificação de ordens inferiores na maioria dos casos e que os cenários conservaram satisfatoriamente as propriedades estatísticas das séries originais. Finalmente, os resultados obtidos foram bastante satisfatórios, corroborando alguns pontos levantados em estudos anteriores sobre a abordagem tradicional.
The periodic autoregressive model, a particular structure of the Box & Jenkins family, denoted by PAR(p), is employed to model the series of hydrological streamflow used for estimating the operational costs of the Brazilian hydro-thermal optimal dispatch. Recently, some aspects of this approach began to be studied and several researches on this topic are being developed. This work focused on the identification phase of the order "p" of the PAR(p), essential to the correct definition of the model structure, as well as to generate synthetic scenarios to be used in the optimization procedure. Nowadays, the identification is based on evaluating the significance of the estimated partial autocorrelation coefficients function (PACF), based on the asymptotic result of Quenouille. The purpose of this study was on the application of a computer-intensive technique, called Bootstrap, to estimate the real statistical significance of such the estimated. The second goal of this study was use the Bootstrap technique in order to generate synthetic scenarios. The current methodology uses an approach for noise generation through a three parameters Lognormal distribution. Such approach seems to cause an undesirable non-linearity in the model. In this work, the PAR (p) resulted noises were used during the scenarios generation. The results showed that the Bootstrap led to the identification of lower orders models, in comparison with the traditional approach, in almost all cases. In addition, the scenarios retained the statistical characteristics of the original series. The obtained results were quite satisfactory, corroborating some points raised in previous studies about the traditional approach.
Guertin, Jane. "Practical example of developing and implementing an optimization & scenario planning tool." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/90784.
Full textThesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2014. In conjunction with the Leaders for Global Operations Program at MIT.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 64-65).
There is significant complexity facing the Global Footwear Planning team when sourcing production, especially for sandals. The challenges include increasing manufacturing costs coupled with a changing tariff landscape and a high degree of complexity to produce the products. This thesis provides a practical example of the use of an optimization model for determining where to produce, and how much to produce, of each product, including the ability to perform strategic what-if scenarios. The model is based on minimizing the total landed cost for each product. This includes the manufacturing, transportation, holding, and tariff costs. The initial pilot model results suggested a 4-11% decrease in spending for a given year. This model provides the starting point for additional work to improve optimization in the sourcing group. The implementation of this model reinforces the notion of how much support is needed in an organization to change processes and implement new software models. Future work should include the addition of simulation, as the data are highly variable at the decision point.
by Jane Guertin.
M.B.A.
S.M.
Poskitt, Samuel. "Investigating the benefits of Participatory Scenario Planning for tackling social-ecological problems." Thesis, University of Reading, 2018. http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/79998/.
Full textAndrews, Clinton James. "Improving the analytics of open planning processes : scenario-based multiple attribute tradeoff analysis for regional electric power planning." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/13566.
Full textFazakerley, Victor William. "Critical issues for the future of the Australian urban water supply industry." Thesis, Curtin University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/1246.
Full textDerrick, Deborah Chippington. "Models, methods and algorithms for supply chain planning." Thesis, Brunel University, 2011. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/6024.
Full textCox, Brian Anthony. "Discovering the essence of organisational learning by studying the effectiveness of scenario planning." Thesis, University of Strathclyde, 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.248733.
Full textRaford, Noah (Noah A. ). "Large scale participatory futures systems : a comparative study of online scenario planning approaches." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/68444.
Full textCataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 224-231).
This dissertation explores the role that participatory online collective intelligence systems might play in urban planning research. Specifically, it examines methodological and practical issues raised by the design and use of such systems in long-term policy formulation, with a focus on their potential as data collection instruments and analytical platforms for qualitative scenario planning. The research questions addressed herein examine how the use of collective intelligence platforms informs the process of scenario planning in urban public policy. Specifically, how (if at all) does the design and deployment of such platforms influence the number and type of participants involved, people's reasons for participation, the kinds of activities they perform, and the speed and timeline of the scenario creation process? Finally, what methodological considerations does the use of such instruments raise for urban planning research in the future? In-depth interviews with experts in the fields of urban planning, public participation, crowdsourcing, and scenarios were conducted, combined with secondary analysis of comparable approaches in related fields. The results were used to create an analytical framework for comparing systems across a common set of measurement constructs. Findings were then used to develop a series of prototypical online platforms that generated data for two related urban planning cases. These were then analyzed relative to a base case, using the framework described above. The dissertation closes with a reflection on how the use of such online approaches might impact the role and process of qualitative scenario research in public policy formulation in the future, and what this suggests for subsequent scholarly inquiry.
by Noah Raford.
Ph.D.
Ntombela, Sifiso Mboneni. "Scenario development to support strategic planning in the south african table grape industry." Thesis, Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/4160.
Full textENGLISH ABSTRACT: The South African table grape industry has evolved significantly in the last two decades. Ever improving supply chain technologies, post-harvest technology innovation, and more efficient production inputs have all stimulated the production of table grapes in all five South African production regions. While the industry in general is well developed, from the late 1990s the competitiveness status of the South African table grape industry has been negative as far as international competitiveness is rated. Prior to this, from 1961 to 1998, the industry had recorded positive trends in competitiveness. The recent decline, from as early as the 2000s, in the competitiveness of the industry can be attributed to rising competition from alternate Southern Hemisphere suppliers, increasing production costs and export costs, as well as inadequate market diversification. As a result of its negative competitiveness status, the table grape industry wants to diversify its export markets in order to improve and protect the industry‟s position in the global table grape markets. The objective of this study is to investigate the viability of specific export market diversification scenarios. The aim is to evaluate the potential impact on the table grape industry if export volumes were to be relocated from traditional to emerging markets, and the potential risk if the industry were to maintain the current market distribution. The study developed a deterministic farm-level model based on accounting principles as a tool for simulating and analysing the impact of changes in markets on the financial viability of farms under different scenarios. A scenario development process is adopted in this study as it offers the possibility of integrating various kinds of data in a consistent manner, and it can represent the views and expectations of several stakeholders simultaneously. Three scenarios were developed: (i) Scenario 1 presents the continuation of current market distributions (i.e. 85% of South African exports are marketed in Europe and another 15% are distributed to other global markets); (ii) Scenario 2A depicts a situation where export volumes are slowly redistributed to emerging markets; and (iii) Scenario 2B presents a situation where export volumes are rapidly redistributed to emerging markets. The targets for both Scenarios 2A and 2B are to market 60% of South African exports to Europe and 40% to other global markets. Scenarios 2A and 2B are driven by similar factors, including improving industry information, globalisation, increasing competition, and table grape prices An analysis of factors shaping the table grape export sector shows that the industry can no longer afford to send large export quantities predominantly to its traditional markets, due to increasing competition and diminishing market prices. Furthermore, the analysis shows that continuing with the current market diversification will have a negative impact on the industry, as farm returns, employment and farm units will decline under this scenario. The results suggest that the industry would be better off if export volumes were redistributed away from Europe to other markets.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Gedurende die laaste twee dekades het die Suid Afrikaanse Tafeldruif Industrie met rasse skrede vooruitgegaan. Dit kan grootliks toegeskryf word aan verbeterde tegnologiese ontwikkeling en innovasie in die voorsieningsketting en na-oes tegnologie arenas, asook aan meer doeltreffende produksie insette wat produksie toenames in al vyf die Suid Afrikaanse produksie areas gestimuleer het. Alhoewel die industrie relatief goed ontwikkeld was sedert sy ontstaan, was die kompeterende status daarvan meestal negatief sedert die 1990‟s, gemeet aan internasionale kompetisie. Daar was egter tussen 1961 en 1998 ook positiewe mededinging tendense. Die onlangse verlaagde vlakke van mededingendheid van die industrie (veral sedert die vroeë 2000‟s) kan toegeskryf word aan verhoogde kompetisie vanaf ander Suidelike Halfrond verskaffers, verhoogde produksie- en uitvoerkoste, asook aan onvoldoende mark diversifisering. As gevolg van die negatiewe mededingendheid status, wil die tafeldruif industrie sy uitvoer markte diversifiseer om te verseker dat die industrie sy posisie in die globale tafeldruif mark kan beskerm. Die doel van hierdie studie is dus om die lewensvatbaarheid van spesifieke uitvoer mark diversifisering scenario‟s te ondersoek. Daarmee saam is die potensiële impak op die industrie ook bepaal vir (a) „n hoë persentasie uitvoer volumes wat verskuif vanaf tradisionele markte na ontluikende market, of (b) wat die risiko sal wees indien die huidige markverspreiding vlakke behou word. Die studie ontwikkel „n deterministiese plaasvlak model, gebaseer op rekeningkundige beginsels, om as hulpmiddel te dien vir die simulering en analise van die impak van verandering van teikenmarkte op die fnansiële lewensvatbaarheid van plase onder verskillende omstandighede. „n Scenario intwikkelings proses word in hierdie studie aangeneem aangesien dit toelaat vir die integrasie van verskillende tipes data op „n eenvormige wyse, terwyl dit ook die sieninge en verwagtinge van verskeie rolspelers terselfdertyd kan verteenwoordig. Drie scenario‟s word ontwikkel naamlik (i) Scenario 1: Dit verteenwoordig die huidige mark verspreiding (85% van Suid Afrikaanse uitvoere word in Europa bemark terwyl 15% versprei word na ander globale markte); (ii) Scenario 2A: Hier word die situasie uitgebeeld indien uitvoer volumes stadig herverdeel word na ontluikende markte; en (iii) Scenario 2B: Hier word die situasie uitgebeeld indien uitvoer volumes vinnig herverdeel word na ontluikende markte. Die teikens vir beide Scenario 2A en 2B is om 60% van die Suid Afrikaanse uitvoere in Europa te bemark en 40% in ander globale markte. Beide scenario‟s word deur dieselfde faktore gestu wat onder andere verbeterde industrie inligting, globalisering, verhoogde kompetisie en produk pryse insluit. „n Ontleding van die vormende faktore van die tafeldruif uitvoer sektor toon dat die industrie nie langer kan bekostig om hoë uitvoer volumes na die tradisionele markte te stuur nie, as gevolg van sterker kompetisie en krimpende markpryse. Die ontleding toon ook verder dat, indien voortgegaan word met die huidige mark diversifiserings model, die industrie negatief beïnvloed sal word in terme van verlaagde plaas inkomste, werkverskaffing en die aantal boerdery eenhede. Die uitslae dui dus daarop dat die industrie beter daaraan toe sal wees indien die huidige uitvoer volumes herverdeel kan word na ander (nie-Europese) markte.
Mbasuen, Timothy Sesugh. "The sustainability assessment of energy policy in Nigeria : scenario planning and integrated modelling." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2013. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:2512a910-2294-4682-a7ef-5f7b791cc1fd.
Full textConklin, Christopher Ryan 1974. "Using scenarios in regional strategic transportation planning : an evolving methodology." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/80605.
Full textIncludes bibliographical references (p. 249-253).
by Christopher Ryan Conklin.
S.M.
Bowman, Gary. "An empirical analysis of a scenario-informed strategic planning process : a public sector case." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/1978.
Full textBurgess, Amy G. "Promoting Domestic Water Conservation through the Utilization of a Scenario-Based Planning Support System." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2010. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1277000131.
Full textLang, Trudi J. "Essays on how scenario planning and the building of new social capital are related." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2012. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:8a081082-0d41-4022-b323-e026239cfdec.
Full textPettit, Christopher James. "Land use planning scenarios for urban growth : a case study approach /." [St. Lucia, Qld.], 2002. http://www.library.uq.edu.au/pdfserve.php?image=thesisabs/absthe17283.pdf.
Full textLin, Kuan-Wen, and 林貫文. "Scenario Planning as Framing." Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/90128217398892257498.
Full text國立清華大學
科技管理研究所
102
In today's democratic society, whether politicians or business leaders need an effective policy marketing strategy powerful tool to persuade their followers to do. The concept of framing is that the leader motivates followers to achieve the set goal through making emphasize some communication or promotional content, and guide the people to focus on a particular viewing angle. The approach of scenario planning provides a variety of possible future scenarios to expand the frames of reference, and take more broad and liberal thinking way to have consensus-building. The process of scenario planning approach as the framing tool is to design some possible future scenarios, develop common language, and therefore reaching a consensus within the organization. This article also serves several cases ,which is related to scenario planning as the framing tool. Including Shell coping with the oil crisis successfully with using scenarios; the role of Icarus scenario in the democratization in South Africa; the scenarios about students occupied Legislative Yuan, the scenarios related to government's housing policy; and analyzing records of the 9th national science and technology conference.
Lin, Yu-ting, and 林玉婷. "Scenario Planning of Handheld Device." Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/9npcz3.
Full text國立中央大學
企業管理研究所
96
In order to look for the appearance of future handheld device, the characteristics included in and the way to use or operate the handheld device are researched and explored. Scenario Planning which is one of the methods of Foresight Analysis is used to find out the results. After Scenario Planning analysis, the key decision factors of “way of data input / output” and “interface of data input / output” of future handheld device are light、thin、short、small、easy to carry、using in human nature and readable image. The external driving forces are found and located into the impact and uncertainty matrix. The uncertainty axes are:input through hand controlling、input through voice、interface of electronic paper and interface of projector. The 16 scenarios are developed according to each of the realizable and non-realizable uncertainty axes. 4 particular scenarios of those are described to provide the ways to develop the related technologies for research centers or organizations.