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Hofer, Heiko. "Large-Scale Gradual Change Detection." Neubiberg Universitätsbibliothek der Universität der Bundeswehr, 2010. http://d-nb.info/1001920856/34.
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Eversole, Dolan. "Large-Scale Beach Change: Kaanapali, Hawai'i." Thesis, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/10125/6946.
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Using monthly beach profile surveys and historical aerial photographs, the seasonal and long-term (48 year) beach morphology for Kaanapali Beach, Maui is described. By identifying the shoreline position in historical aerial photographs it is determined that the Kaanapali area is subject to long periods of mild erosion and accretion punctuated by severe erosional events related to short-period Kona storms and hurricane waves. Increased Central Pacific tropical cyclone activity of the late 1950's and early 1960's and Hurricane Iniki in 1992 are identified as contributing factors to the observed volume change during these periods. Between these erosional periods the Kaanapali shoreline is relatively stable characterized by light erosion to moderate accretion suggesting the recovery time may be on the order of roughly 20 years. Over the 48-year period 1949 to 1997, the Kaanapali and Honokowai cells have experienced a net sediment volume loss of 43,000 ±730 m3 and 30,700 ±630 m3 respectively for a total net volume loss of 73,700 ± 990 m3. The Kona storms and hurricanes of the early 1960's and 1992 collectively account for 136,000 m3 of sediment lost or approximately 62% of the gross volume change for the entire period, revealing the significant erosional effect of these storms. Recovery after each of these storms accounts for 73,900 m3 or approximately 33% of the gross volume change. A residual loss of 10,600 m3 representing 5% of the gross volume change is inferred as chronic erosion and may be a product of relative sea-level rise (RSLR). An increase in short-period southwesterly wave energy during these erosional periods is well documented and may have transported beach sediment further offshore than normal (beyond the reef) and is identified as a possible mechanism for long-term erosion in this area. The spatial distribution of historical shoreline movement suggests the majority of sediment transport occurs in the central portion of Kaanapali near Kekaa and Hanakoo Point and is driven by longshore rather than cross-shore transport. Surveyed beach profiles reveal a strong seasonal variability with net erosion in the summer and accretion in the winter with an along the shore-alternating pattern of erosion and accretion. 65% of the net volume change occurs south of Kekaa Point confirming the more dynamic nature of the southern (Kaanapali Cell). Net beach profile volume change from the mean suggests that June and January are the most dynamic months each with approximately 14% of the total volume change. We attribute the significant and rapid erosion and accretion events due to wave-induced longshore transport of sediment. Field observations of monthly beach sediment impoundment in the Kaanapali cell are examined and compared to three models that predict longshore sediment transport (LST). Beach profile results indicate sediment impoundment occurs seasonally with a nearly balanced longshore sediment transport system between profile 5 and 9. Longshore transport rates are derived from seasonal cumulative net volume change in the middle of Kaanapali Beach at profile 7. Cumulative net sediment transport rates are 29,379 m3/yr ±15% to the north and 22,358 m3/yr ± 6% to the south for summer and winter respectively, a net annual rate of 7,021 m3/yr ± 10% to the north and a gross annual rate of 51,736 m3/yr ± 2%. Predictive transport formulas such as CERC (1984), CERC (1991) and Kamphius (1991) predict net annual transport rates at 3 x 103 percent, 77 percent and 6 x 103 percent of the observed transport rates respectively. The presence of fringing reef significantly effects the ability of the LST models to accurately predict sediment transport. When applying the CERC (1984, 1991) and Kamphius (1991) formulas, the functional beach profile area available for sediment transport is assumed much larger than actually exists in Kaanapali because of the presence of a fringing reef that truncates a portion of the sandy profile area. The CERC (1984, 1991) and Kamphius (1991) formulas don't account for the presence of a reef system which may contribute to the models overestimate of longshore sediment transport as they assume the entire profile is mobile sediment. However the fact that the CERC (1991) model underestimates the observed transport implies that additional environmental parameters (such as wave height, direction and period) playa more substantial role than the influence of the reef in the model results. The CERC (1991) Genesis model is found to be superior in fitting the observed longshore transport at Kaanapali Beach. The success of the Genesis model is partly attributed to its' ability to account for short-term changes in near-shore parameters such as wave shoaling, refraction, bathymetry, antecedent conditions and several other shore face parameters not accounted for in the CERC (1984) or Kamphius (1991) formulas. The use of the CERC (1984) formula is prone to practical errors in its' application particularly in the use of the recommended "K" coefficient and wave averaging that may a significantly overestimate the LST. A better fit to the observed LST is achieved with the CERC (1984) if the K value is decreased by an order of magnitude from 0.77 to 0.07. The Kamphius (1991) formula is especially sensitive to extremes in wave period and tends to deviate from observed transport estimates for unusually high wave periods (this study) and approximates observations nicely in areas with low wave periods (Ping Wang et al. (1998). Many of the studied predictive LST formulas are prone to overestimate transport and thus their use requires a comprehensive understanding of the complexities and errors associated with employing them. Great care must be used when applying LST models in areas with significant hard bottom or shallow reefs that alter the beach profile shape. Due to these errors, the use of the CERC (1984) and Kamphius (1991) formulas are better suited as a qualitative interpretative tool of transport direction rather than magnitude.ix, 62 leaves
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McChesney, Ronald John. "A Three Scale Metropolitan Change Model." Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2008. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1209393707.
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Harden, Tamara Shank. "Changes of University of Rhode Island Change Assessment Over Time Associated with Stages of Change." University of Toledo / OhioLINK, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo1492972365458096.
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Cogan, Richard Brian. "Large-scale computer implementations and systemic organizational change." Case Western Reserve University School of Graduate Studies / OhioLINK, 2003. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=case1054672515.
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Rowlands, Daniel James. "Quantifying uncertainty in projections of large scale climate change." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2011. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.555296.
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A systematic approach to quantifying uncertainty in climate projections is through the application of observational constraints to an ensemble of climate model simulations. In this thesis we investigate how large perturbed physics ensembles of atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations can be used to represent modelling uncertainty in climate projections. We start by considering the challenges involved in ensemble design owing to the high dimensional parameter space in AOGCMs, introducing the technique of emulation that can be used to efficiently target regions of parameter space having properties of interest for a particular research question. We then present results from the climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment (BBC CCE), the first multi-thousand member coupled AOGCM ensemble exploring un- certainties in the transient response. We find a "likely" range (66% confidence interval) of 1.4-3K for global mean warming by 2050 relative to 1961-1990 under a mid-range emissions scenario. The range is larger than observed in multi-model ensembles of opportunity, especially at the upper end and is more consistent with the subjective estimate given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). The results provide the first direct AOGCM evidence of high response worlds that are consistent with the recent observed warming, providing an additional set of physically coherent input scenarios that can support climate impact assessments. Application of observational constraints in calculating model error requires a met- ric to weight individual components, often through an inverse covariance matrix. We demonstrate how the sample covariance matrix is a poor estimator in many situations faced in climate research and follow up previous work introducing regularized covariance estimation, which is applied to the analysis of the BBC CCE. This stabilises uncertainty estimates removing the need for empirical choices of the truncation in the model error calculation. Finally we introduce objective Bayesian statistics as a methodology to address some of the difficulties faced when specifying prior distributions for AOGCM parameters. Results from applying Jeffreys' prior to a simplified energy balance model of the climate system suggest the approach can be applied to complex AOGCMs and therefore provides a complementary alternative to more traditional subjective Bayesian methods. However, we conclude that the probabilistic framework adopted in quantifying uncertainty should be partially motivated by the forecast of interest and strength of relevant observational constraints in the climate system.
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Graham, Tabitha. "INVESTIGATION OF MEDIA INGREDIENTS AND WATER SOURCES FOR ALGAE CO2 CAPTURE AT DIFFERENT SCALES TO DEMONSTRATE THE CORRELATIONS BETWEEN LAB-SCALE AND LARGE-SCALE GROWTH." UKnowledge, 2013. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/bae_etds/16.
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As energy use increases globally the environmental burdens increase alike. Many accusations have been made that carbon dioxide is a culprit of climate change. The University of Kentucky and Duke Energy Power have partnered to test carbon capture technology in a large scale project. To this end, the objective of this thesis is to investigate potential water media sources and nutrient sources at different volume scales for algae cultivation to help create a more environmentally viable and economically feasible solution. This work will conduct a life cycle assessment of water media sources and the effects of the inputs and outputs needed for each medium. The up-scaling objective of the research is to identify which parameters vary as a result of up-scaling and how to maintain a culture at the large scale that is standardized to the lab scale culture.
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Hwang, Anthony D. "Classifying Symptom Change in Eating Disorders: Clinical Significance Metrics for the Change in Eating Disorder Symptoms Scale." BYU ScholarsArchive, 2010. https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/etd/2563.
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Despite well-established diagnostic measures and measures of specific dimensions of eating disorder symptomatology, little work has been done to develop a brief, comprehensive, and valid measure for assessing change in eating disorder symptoms. Further, empirically-supported change indices to assess treatment progression and outcome have not yet been developed. The Change in Eating Disorder Symptoms Scale (CHEDS) is a new comprehensive measure designed to assess progress and change during treatment in persons with diagnoses on the eating disorder spectrum. Previous studies have demonstrated the subscale structure, reliability, and validity of the CHEDS. This study determined clinically significant change criteria for the CHEDS to complement the studies that have supported the CHEDS as a reliable and valid measure of eating disorder symptomatology. The CHEDS was also compared to a life functioning scale, the Clinical Impairment Assessment. A reliable change index (RCI) was developed, which generated an inferential statistic that estimates the magnitude of change in a score necessary for a change score to be considered statistically reliable. A cutscore was also developed, which differentiates between functional and dysfunctional populations, between eating disordered clinical subjects and non-clinical subjects. Trajectories were identified using hierarchical linear modeling methods for use in conjunction with clinical significance criteria to aid in the tracking of symptoms during treatment, treatment decision-making, and tailoring treatment according to expected and observed progress. The clinical significance change criteria were then applied to the clinical sample to determine change patterns descriptive of recovered, reliable improvement, deterioration, and no change. Finally, a scoring program with clinical significance change criteria and trajectory analyses for total and subscale scores was developed.
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Osofsky, Hari. "Scales of Law: Rethinking Climate Change Governance." Thesis, University of Oregon, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1794/13297.
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The international treaty regime on climate change is failing to address this problem adequately and cannot fully capture the scales of the problem or of efforts to address it. This dissertation draws from geographic conceptions of scale and legal governance theory to: (1) argue for the value of polycentric, multi-scalar approaches to climate change governance, (2) explore the nuances of what such approaches entail, and (3) propose strategies for improving their effectiveness. It does so by applying these theoretical approaches to three case studies: climate change litigation, federal climate change regulation, and suburban action on climate change. For each of these case studies, it demonstrates the complexity of defining scales and scalar dynamics and considers how the activity being described does and should fit into multi-scalar governance approaches. It concludes by reflecting upon the lessons from the case studies for how to understand the geography of multi-level governance approaches and to approach its core principles of hybridity, multi-scalar, and inclusion.
This dissertation includes previously published material.
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Askari, Mina. "Information Theoretic Evaluation of Change Prediction Models for Large-Scale Software." Thesis, University of Waterloo, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10012/1139.
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During software development and maintenance, as a software system evolves, changes are made and bugs are fixed in various files. In large-scale systems, file histories are stored in software repositories, such as CVS, which record modifications. By studying software repositories, we can learn about open source software development rocesses. Knowing where these changes will happen in advance, gives power to managers and developers to concentrate on those files. Due to the unpredictability in software development process, proposing an accurate change prediction model is hard. It is even harder to compare different models with the actual model of changes that is not available. In this thesis, we first analyze the information generated during the development process, which can be obtained through mining the software repositories. We observe that the change data follows a Zipf distribution and exhibits self-similarity. Based on the extracted data, we then develop three probabilistic models to predict which files will have changes or bugs. One purpose of creating these models is to rank the files of the software that are most susceptible to having faults.
The first model is Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), which simply counts the number of events i. e. , changes or bugs that occur in to each file, and normalizes the counts to compute a probability distribution. The second model is Reflexive Exponential Decay (RED), in which we postulate that the predictive rate of modification in a file is incremented by any modification to that file and decays exponentially. The result of a new bug occurring to that file is a new exponential effect added to the first one. The third model is called RED Co-Changes (REDCC). With each modification to a given file, the REDCC model not only increments its predictive rate, but also increments the rate for other files that are related to the given file through previous co-changes.
We then present an information-theoretic approach to evaluate the performance of different prediction models. In this approach, the closeness of model distribution to the actual unknown probability distribution of the system is measured using cross entropy. We evaluate our prediction models empirically using the proposed information-theoretic approach for six large open source systems. Based on this evaluation, we observe that of our three prediction models, the REDCC model predicts the distribution that is closest to the actual distribution for all the studied systems.
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Wiebe, Edward Carl. "Climate change and sub-grid-scale mixing in a coupled model." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1998. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/tape15/PQDD_0002/MQ36625.pdf.
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Box, Matthew Robert. "Response of the Nile and Sahara to Millennial-Scale Climate Change." Thesis, University of Leeds, 2008. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.494127.
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Jordan, Mandy. "Decisional Balance Scale: Restructuring a Measurement of Change for Adolescent Offenders." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2005. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc4865/.
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The transtheoretical model has a substantial history of measuring the change process. Hemphill and Howell validated the Stages of Change Scale (SOCS) on adolescent offenders. The current study expands their research by developing an additional component of the TTM, the Decisional Balance Scale for Adolescent Offenders (DBS-AO). This measure assesses movement through the stages of change and provides insight into mechanisms through which adolescent offenders attempt to change their criminal behaviors. Two hundred thirty-nine adolescent offenders at the Gainesville State School completed the SOCS, DBS-AO, Paulhus Deception Scales (PDS), and the Antisocial Process Screening Device (APSD). The study found the DBS-AO is psychometrically sound, demonstrates excellent reliability and has an underlying three-factor solution: Cons, Pros-Self, and Pros-Others. Offenders in the early stages of change scored significantly higher on the Cons scale. Offenders actively changing their behavior scored significantly higher on the Pro-Self and Pros-Other scales.
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Åsfält, Pär, and Jan Stüeken. "Controlling Changes in Large-Scale Software Development." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Avdelningen för programvarusystem, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-2039.
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Changes to a software system are the result of changing requirements or defects during the development. Each change consumes resources for the analysis, decision making, implementation, and verification. Hence, having control over changes is crucial for software development projects to meet schedules, keep quality standards and budgets. Reuse of functionality helps to create new products based on already existing building blocks. Integrating mature components enables to create reliable systems. Software product lines provide means to develop several similar systems based on reuse. Often new products also need to be released frequently to fulfil the customer needs. Shortened lead time for the development then strengthens the importance of reuse. At the same time, limited budgets and competition on the market requires projects to utilize resources efficiently. Developing several releases in parallel enables an even distribution of tasks among different roles in a development organization. Both developing software based on a product line approach and parallel releases put requirements on how changes need to be controlled. In this thesis, software engineering literature is reviewed regarding the knowledge areas of software release management, software product lines and software configuration management. Beyond the most considerable research results also related case studies are presented to show how industry practices counter existing problems. The major part of the thesis is a case study conducted at Sony Ericsson Mobile Communications AB. The outcome of the thesis is an identification of challenges of controlling changes regarding parallel development and using software product lines based on available research results and industry case studies. It further provides a case of a software development organization which faces a high market-pace, uses a software product line approach, and develops several software releases in parallel on different sites around the world.
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Raei, Mohammed. "Development and Validation of the Adaptive Leadership with Authority Scale." Antioch University / OhioLINK, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=antioch153684122004308.
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Lu, Lee-Hsing. "The readiness and willingness in China for OD change a mixed method study of Chinese management /." online access from Digital Dissertation Consortium access full-text, 2005. http://libweb.cityu.edu.hk/cgi-bin/er/db/ddcdiss.pl?3180740.
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Brandefelt, Jenny. "Atmospheric circulation regimes and climate change." Doctoral thesis, Stockholm : Dept. of Meteorology, Stockholm University, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-530.
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Lukacs, Karrin S. "Quantifying 'the ripple in the pond' the development and validation of the teacher change agent scale /." Fairfax, VA : George Mason University, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1920/3066.
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Thesis (Ph.D.)--George Mason University, 2008.Vita: p. 108. Thesis director: Gary Galluzzo. Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Education. Title from PDF t.p. (viewed July 3, 2008). Includes bibliographical references (p. 95-107). Also issued in print.
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Teutschbein, Claudia. "Hydrological Modeling for Climate Change Impact Assessment : Transferring Large-Scale Information from Global Climate Models to the Catchment Scale." Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK), 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-84197.
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A changing climate can severely perturb regional hydrology and thereby affect human societies and life in general. To assess and simulate such potential hydrological climate change impacts, hydrological models require reliable meteorological variables for current and future climate conditions. Global climate models (GCMs) provide such information, but their spatial scale is too coarse for regional impact studies. Thus, GCM output needs to be downscaled to a finer scale either through statistical downscaling or through dynamic regional climate models (RCMs). However, even downscaled meteorological variables are often considerably biased and therefore not directly suitable for hydrological impact modeling. This doctoral thesis discusses biases and other challenges related to incorporating climate model output into hydrological studies and evaluates possible strategies to address them. An analysis of possible sources of uncertainty stressed the need for full ensembles approaches, which should become standard practice to obtain robust and meaningful hydrological projections under changing climate conditions. Furthermore, it was shown that substantial biases in current RCM simulations exist and that correcting them is an essential prerequisite for any subsequent impact simulation. Bias correction algorithms considerably improved RCM output and subsequent streamflow simulations under current conditions. In addition, differential split-sample testing was highlighted as a powerful tool for evaluating the transferability of bias correction algorithms to changed conditions. Finally, meaningful projections of future streamflow regimes could be realized by combining a full ensemble approach with bias correction of RCM output: Current flow regimes in Sweden with a snowmelt-driven spring flood in April will likely change to rather damped flow regimes that are dominated by large winter streamflows.
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Chung, Baul. "A qualitative case study of a self-initiated change in South Korea." Thesis, Boston College, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/2506.
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Thesis advisor: Andy HargreavesAfter a decade of large-scale educational reform there is now a growing interest in grass-roots self-initiated change (Datnow et al., 2002; Hargreaves, 2009; Hargreaves & Shirley, 2009; Shirley, 2009). Yet, self-initiated change (SIC) remains largely undertheorized in the literature of educational change. Even the advocates of self-initiated change do not clearly specify the underlying mechanisms and the multi-dimensional processes by which SIC occurs. Utilizing a qualitative case study approach and a conceptual framework that draws from incremental institutional change theory and the literature on social movements within institutions, this study explored the following research questions: * What mechanisms do the change agents of SIC employ, How do they implement these mechanisms and why do they employ these mechanisms? * What are the characteristics of the processes of SIC? What is the pacing and sequencing of the change? * How does SIC unfold over time, and why? In answering these three initial questions a fourth research question emerged that summates the other three: *What implications does an investigation of self-initiated change in one school have for understanding existing theories of self-initiated and imposed educational change? Findings from this study revealed that self-initiated change involved a recombination that embodied the ideal of "change without pain" by balancing change and stability (Abrahamson, 2004). The process of self-initiated change turned out to be slow-moving (Pierson, 2004; Thelen & Mahoney, 2010). Mindful juxtaposition (Huy, 2001) and a dialectical perspective (Hargrave & Van de Ven, 2009) were required to address the multiple and contradictory dimensions of change. Based on these analyses, I propose ways of conceptualizing SIC as: "change without pain"; "slow-moving change"; and "dialectical/ cyclical change."
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2011
Submitted to: Boston College. Lynch School of Education
Discipline: Educational Administration and Higher Education
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Norte, Pinto Nuno. "Multi-scale integrated cellular modelling for the study of urban change phenomena." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/403851.
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The development of urban models based on mathematical and physics concepts has been one of the most intense scientific areas of research for the last two decades in urban studies.
Cellular automata (CA), a mathematical approach to the evolution of systems ,is one of these concepts that have gained the attention of geographers and many other urban studies scholars since the 1970s.CAhave two main features that are quite interesting for urban modelling. First, CA formulation and early development are very close to the development of computation sciences themselves. Second, CA benefits from an inherent spatiality that suits the modelling of a wide range of spatial phenomena. They allow the simulation of complex patterns of, for example, land use, starting from a very simple and perceivable conceptual framework that includes five simple concepts:
(1) the cell and the cell space (representing form);(2) a finite set of cell states (representing, for example, land uses); (3) a neighbourhood of cells (representing spatial interaction); (4) a finite set of transition rules (representing behaviours ,the urban function);and (5) the evolution of a system over time (representing the dynamic nature of complex system s).
CA models are commonly used to simulate land use change at a regional or metropolitan level considering land use dynamics at a local level. They consider increasingly smaller cells, making use of the high resolution of today's remote sense images to capture many interactions that occur at a very large scale. Regular cells are used at the local scale (traditionally image pixels} and at a regional scale, as aggregations of smaller cells. Neighbourhoods are user defined in the majority of the cases , fixing beforehand one of the most important abilities of CA models in capturing spatial interaction and its extent Transition rules are usually applied to the entire region, making no real difference in the types of interactions that occur at different scales. CA models usually consider external drivers such as accessibility or land suitability as external attributes of cell, disregarding interdependencies between those drivers.
This dissertation presents the research on these previous features by developing a multiscale CA model to simulate land use change both at the regional and at the local scales, taking accessibility not as an exogenous cell attribute but as a part of the modelling package, improving the models' capacity to capture the interdependence s between all drivers.
The research addressed the issues of scale, cell form, neighbourhood definition, and calibration. A multiscale CA modelling framework aims to simulate land use dynamics at two different spatial and time scales: a macroscale CA that tries to model the aggregated land use change at a regional level; and a microscale CA that tries to model land use allocation at local scale.
Irregular cells are used at both scales. Neighbourhood extension is defined at both scales as a model parameter, thus defined by the calibration procedure. The macroscale model generates aggregate values of land use demand as an input for the microscale model, which tries to allocate land use to best fit simulation to reality. Model calibration is made using an optimization procedure based on the particle swarm optimization heuristic.
The dissertation presents and discusses the main features of the models and of the calibration process. A set of modular modelling tools were developed to simulate complex urban phenomena that constitute the foundation of urban growth/urban change. The models have been applied to case studies in Portugal and Spain, with different scales and spatial structures, to illustrate the main findings.El desarrollo de modelos urbanos basados en conceptos matemáticos y físicos ha sido una de las áreas más intensas de investigación científica en el campo de los estudios urbanos. Desde la década de 1970, los autómatas celulares (CA), un enfoque matemático para la evolución de sistemas, es uno de esos conceptos que ha ido ganando la atención de geógrafos y otros académicos dedicados a los estudios urbanos. Los CA tiene dos características bastante interesantes para la modelación urbana. Primero, la formulación y el temprano desarrollo de los CA estuvieron íntimamente vinculados al desarrollo de las ciencias. Segundo, los CA se benefician de una inherente espacialidad adecuada al modelaje de un amplio rango de fenómenos espaciales. Lo anterior permite la simulación de complejos patrones con un marco conceptual simples y perceptible que incluye cinco conceptos simples: (1) la célula y el espacio de la célula (que representa la forma); (2) un conjunto finito de estados de célula (que representa por ejemplo el uso de suelo); (3) una vecindad de células (representando la interacción espacial); (4) un conjunto finito de reglas de transición (representando comportamientos, es decir, la función urbana); y (5) la evolución del sistema a través del tiempo (representando la naturaleza dinámica de sistemas complejos). Los modelos CA se usan comúnmente para simular el cambio en el uso del suelo a nivel regional o metropolitano considerando las dinámicas en el uso del suelo a nivel local. Estos consideran cada vez más, células regulares menores (tradicionalmente imágenes basadas en pixels) y a escala regional, como agregados de células menores. Las vecindades son definidas en la mayoría de casos por los usuarios, fijando de antemano una de las habilidades más importantes de los modelos CA para capturar las interacciones espaciales y su extensión. Las reglas de transición por lo general son aplicadas a regiones enteras, sin que haga ninguna diferencia real en el tipo de interacciones que ocurre a distintas escalas. Los modelos CA usualmente consideran los drivers externos como la accesibilidad o la idoneidad del suelo como atributos externos de las células, ignorando las interdependencias entre estos drivers. Esta tesis presenta la investigación de las características anteriores, desarrollando un modelo CA de escala múltiple que simula el cambio en el uso del suelo tanto a escalas regionales como locales, tomando la accesibilidad no como un atributo exógeno de la célula, sino como parte de un paquete de modelaje, que mejora la capacidad de los modelos para capturar la interdependencia entre todos los drivers. La investigación aborda los temas de escala, la forma de célula, la definición de vecindad, y la calibración. Un marco para el modelaje CA de escala múltiple tiene como objetivo simular la dinámica del uso de suelo a escalas espaciales y temporales diferentes: a nivel macro la CA trata de modelar de manera agregada el uso del suelo, y a nivel macro la CA trata de modelar el uso del suelo a escala local. Células irregulares se usan en ambas escalas. La extensión del vecindad se define a ambas escales como un parámetro del modelo. La escala macro del modelo genera valores de demanda agregada del uso del suelo que son un insumo al modelo de escala micro, que intenta asignar el uso del suelo para que mejor encaje la simulación con la realidad. La calibración del modelo se hace usando el procedimiento de optimización basado en la optimización heurística denominada particle swarm. La tesis presenta y discute las características principales de los modelos y procesos de calibración. Un conjunto de herramientas modulares de modelación fueron desarrolladas para simular fenómenos urbanos complejos que constituyen la base para el cambio y el crecimiento urbano. Para ilustrar los hallazgos más importantes, los modelos fueron aplicados a estudios de caso en Portugal y España, con diferentes escalas y estructuras espaciales.
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Axelsson, Anna-Lena. "Forest landscape change in boreal Sweden 1850-2000 : a multi-scale approach /." Umeå : Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences (Sveriges lantbruksuniv.), 2001. http://epsilon.slu.se/s183.pdf.
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Kehoe, Courtney. "Understanding Small-Scale Fisheries in Thailand: Ecological Change and Local Governance Systems." Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/35306.
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With the state of the world’s marine fisheries in decline and an ever increasing global demand for seafood products, there is rising concern for the future of both our oceans and the more than 180 million people living in the developing world who depend on fisheries for their livelihood. In a country like Thailand, where approximately 3.3 million individuals are working within the fishing industry either full-time or part-time and where catch per unit effort has decreased significantly over the years, understanding ecological change (especially as perceived by fishers whose knowledge is derived and continually updated through everyday lived experience) is paramount. At the same time, recognizing management schemes that realize local realities and acknowledge not only the resource system but the actors that depend on it and the interactions therein is also of great importance. By adopting Ostrom’s general framework for analyzing the sustainability of socio-economic systems the following research explores how ecological, social, and institutional factors are affecting small-scale fishers in the village of Khan Kradai, Prachuap Khiri Khan province. In doing so it contributes towards a deeper understanding of the reasons why small-scale fishers choose to either exploit local resources or use them in a more sustainable way.
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Delaroche, Martin. "Policy change or values change? The evolution of the environmental behavior of large-scale soybean producers in Mato Grasso, Brazil." Thesis, Sorbonne Paris Cité, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019USPCA038/document.
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La production de commodities continue de s’étendre dans le monde. Historiquement, ces aires de production ont créé des opportunités économiques mais ont également eu des implications sociales et environnementales discutables. En 40 ans, l'État du Mato Grosso est devenu le principal producteur de soja du Brésil, représentant un quart de la production brésilienne et de 9% de la production mondiale, une expansion fulgurante vivement critiquée pour avoir causé des taux élevés de déforestation. Cette production est le résultat de petits exploitants agricoles qui ont émigré du sud du Brésil dans les années 1970 pour devenir aujourd'hui des grands producteurs de soja. Bien que les politiques environnementales adoptées dans les années 2000 aient réduit la déforestation, l’interaction entre ces politiques, les conditions de marché, la technologie agricole et l’évolution des valeurs des producteurs n’est pas claire. Quels sont les éléments constitutifs du comportement environnemental de ces producteurs et comment expliquer son changement ? Afin d’examiner cette évolution, nous avons choisi une approche multi-méthodes fondée sur une enquête de terrain comprenant 104 entretiens semi-structurés avec des producteurs, ainsi que des données quantitatives (changement d’utilisation des sols et analyse statistique). Bien que ce changement de comportement soit en partie lié aux conditions de marché et aux politiques environnementales, nous démontrons que l’identité techno-culturelle et les valeurs pro-environnementales de ces producteurs ont contribué de manière significative à ce changement. Cette thèse contient des enseignements précieux pour comprendre les mécanismes complexes susceptibles de limiter l'impact environnemental des futures frontières agricolesCommodity production keeps expanding around the world. Past areas of commodity production have provided economic opportunities, but mixed social and environmental outcomes. In 40 years, Mato Grosso state has turned into the largest Brazilian soybean producer, representing a quarter of the country’s and 9% of the world’s production. Criticism of deforestation outcomes abounded. Much of that production was the result of smallholder farmers who migrated from southern Brazil in the 1970s and turned today into large-scale soybean producers. While environmental policies since the mid-2000s contributed to deforestation reduction in the region, the interplay between these policies, market conditions, technology and changing farmers’ values is unclear. What constitutes the environmental behavior of these producers and what explains that it evolves over time? To examine this evolution, I used a multi-methods approach based on extensive field research, 104 semi-structured interviews with producers, and quantitative data (land-use change and statistical analysis). Although the behavioral change of large-scale soybean producers has partly to do with market conditions and environmental policies, I demonstrate that their evolution in that regard is the result of a particular techno-cultural identity and pro-environmental values developed over time. This dissertation holds valuable lessons for understanding the complex mechanisms that could limit the environmental impact of future commodity frontiers
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Hashmi, Muhammad Zia ur Rahman. "Watershed scale climate change projections for use in hydrologic studies: exploring new dimensions." Thesis, University of Auckland, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2292/10876.
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Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are considered the most reliable source to provide the necessary data for climate change studies. At present, there is a wide variety of GCMs, which can be used for future projections of climate change using different emission scenarios. However, for assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change at the watershed and the regional scale, the GCM outputs cannot be used directly due to the mismatch in the spatial resolution between the GCMs and hydrological models. In order to use the output of a GCM for conducting hydrological impact studies, downscaling is used to convert the coarse spatial resolution of the GCM output into a fine resolution. In broad terms, downscaling techniques can be classified as dynamical downscaling and statistical downscaling. Statistical downscaling approaches are further classified into three broad categories, namely: (1) weather typing; (2) weather generators; and (3) multiple regression-based. For the assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change at the watershed scale, statistical downscaling is usually preferred over dynamical downscaling as station scale information required for such studies may not be directly obtained through dynamical downscaling. Among the variables commonly downscaled, precipitation downscaling is still quite challenging, which has been recognised by many recent studies. Moreover, statistical downscaling methods are usually considered to be not very effective for simulation of precipitation, especially extreme precipitation events. On the other hand, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are very likely to be impacted by envisaged climate change in most parts of the world, thus posing the risk of increased floods and droughts. In this situation, hydrologists should only rely on those statistical downscaling tools that are equally efficient for simulating mean precipitation as well as extreme precipitation events. There is a wide variety of statistical downscaling methods available under the three categories mentioned above, and each method has its strengths and weaknesses. Therefore, no single method has been developed which is considered universal for all kinds of conditions and all variables. In this situation there is a need for multi-model downscaling studies to produce probabilistic climate change projections rather than a point estimate of a projected change. In order to address some of the key issues in the field of statistical downscaling research, this thesis study includes the evaluation of two well established and popular downscaling models, i.e. the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) and Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG), in terms of their ability to downscale precipitation, with its mean and extreme characteristics, for the Clutha River watershed in New Zealand. It also presents the development of a novel statistical downscaling tool using Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and compares its performance with the SDSM-a widely used tool of similar nature. The GEP downscaling model proves to be a simpler and more efficient solution for precipitation downscaling than the SDSM model. Also, a major part of this study comprises of an evaluation of all the three downscaling models i.e. the SDSM, the LARS-WG and the GEP, in terms of their ability to simulate and downscale the frequency of extreme precipitation events, by fitting a Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the annual maximum data obtained from the three models. Out of the three models, the GEP model appears to be the least efficient in simulating the frequency of extreme precipitation events while the other two models show reasonable capability in this regard. Furthermore, the research conducted for this thesis explores the development of a novel probabilistic multi-model ensemble of the three downscaling models, involved in the thesis study, using a Bayesian statistical framework and presents probabilistic projections of precipitation change for the Clutha watershed. In this way, the thesis endeavoured to contribute in the ongoing research related to statistical downscaling by addressing some of the key modern day issues highlighted by other leading researchers.Whole document restricted until Feb. 2013, but available by request, use the feedback form to request access.
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Törnqvist, Rebecka. "Basin-scale change in water availability and water quality under intensified irrigated agriculture." Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK), 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-93214.
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Changes in land use and water use can greatly impact the cycling of water and water-borne substances. Increased redistribution of river water to irrigated fields can cause enhanced evapotranspiration and decreased river discharge. Additionally, the water quality can be affected by the external input of fertilisers and pesticides, and by changed pollutant transport pathways in expansive irrigation canal systems. This thesis examines basin-scale changes in water use, river discharge, water quality and nitrogen (N) loading under conditions of intensified irrigated agriculture, using the Aral Sea drainage basin (ASDB) with its two large rivers Syr Darya and Amu Darya in Central Asia as study area. Results show that more efficient irrigation techniques could reduce outtake of river water to the cotton fields in the ASDB by about 10 km3/year, while the corresponding river water saving at the outlet would be 60% lower. The result illustrates the importance of accounting for return flows of irrigation water in basin-scale water saving assessments. Moreover, a decrease in riverine N concentrations at the outlet of the Amu Darya River Basin (ADRB) was observed during a 40-year period of increasing N fertiliser input. The decrease was identified to be primarily caused by increased recirculation of river water in the irrigation system, leading to increased flow-path lengths and enhanced N attenuation. Decreasing N loads were shown to be primarily related to reduced discharge. N export from the basin may further decrease due to projected discharge reductions related to climate change. Furthermore, nutrients and metals were occasionally found at concentrations above drinking water guideline values in surface waters in the ADRB. However, metal concentrations in groundwater in the lower ADRB were subject to orders of magnitude higher health hazards. Projected decrease in downstream surface water availability would thus imply decreased access to water suitable for drinking.At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 4: Submitted. Paper 5: Manuscript.
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James, Philip A. S. "Climate change adaptation by small scale farmers : Case studies in Nigeria and Uganda." Thesis, University of York, 2009. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.516514.
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Griffin, Nicholas B. "Building, sustaining and dissolving large scale change proposal coalitions in top management teams." Thesis, Loughborough University, 1998. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/7147.
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Recent studies into the political aspects of large scale change in organisations have highlighted the need for a deeper understanding of managerial elites in the change context. The extant literature is guilty of conflating large scale change into a single process, and commentators describe and prescribe political processes and behaviours without differentiating between the proposal and implementation stages of change. The research presented in this thesis provides insights into the nature and characteristics of large scale change proposal coalitions and the behaviours and tactics of coalition leaders in top management teams across a range of organisational settings in the UK private sector. Data was collected and analysed using a qualitative methodology. An elite style semistructured interview schedule was used with a research sample of fifty members of top management teams drawn from across fourteen organisations in thirteen industries. The findings suggest that large scale change proposal coalitions follow a five phase lifecycle: initiate, build, sustain, dissolve, and capture and transfer. Within these phases coalition leaders tend to perform three primary roles: builder, sustainer and dissolver. The sequence of gathering support to build a coalition is heavily influenced by the hierarchical position of the builder, and the behaviours and tactics used are contingent upon whether an individual is engaged in an upward inter-tier, intra-tier, or downward inter-tier support gathering exercise. Once a large scale change proposal coalition had been established the leadership role changes from building to sustaining. Four principal types of coalition are identified: aligned coalitions, unaligned coalitions, unfocused coalitions and fragmented coalitions. Different leadership skills are required for each. Once a proposal has been approved or rejected the evidence suggests that coalitions should be dissolved as rapidly as practically possible using one or a combination of three dissolution techniques. These findings have important implications for academic enquiry and practitioners.
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Perry, Alison L. "Regional scale impacts of climate change on coral reefs and fishing-dependent countries." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2008. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.445532.
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Kimmage, Kevin. "The socio-economic impact of technical change in small-scale irrigation in Nigeria." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1994. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.318559.
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Shrestha, Rudra Kumar. "Towards an improved understanding of regional scale climate change in the Nepal Himalayas." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2013. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/towards-an-improved-understanding-of-regional-scale-climate-change-in-the-nepal-himalayas(e2fe4192-a0ef-4d4e-be16-107b5c572d47).html.
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The effects of enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations on Earth’s climate are well understood. However, the impacts of anthropogenic aerosol particles, in particular due to the many aerosol-cloud indirect feedback mechanisms are not fully or even explicitly quantified as yet. This PhD seeks to contribute to improve our knowledge and understanding of aerosol – precipitation interactions over the Nepal Himalayas region and their consequences for precipitation patterns there. The research was carried out using the cloud-resolving Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model through a series of sensitivity studies and supported by literature reviews of satellite and field observations, although the latter are sparse. To complement the modelling studies, from March to December 2011, aerosols and surface meteorology were also continuously measured at Nagarkot (Lat: 27.7°N, Lon: 85.5° E, Alt: 1900m), Nepal, located in the eastern flank of a bowl shaped Kathmandu valley. The location was chosen to provide a representative vertical profile of aerosol and the impact on topographical flows. Our results showed a unique pattern of diurnal pollution circulation within the valley with a morning and evening peak. The evening peak, which is higher than the morning peak is attributed to the light wind blowing through the valley carrying locally generated fresh evening pollution, further enhanced by re-circulations of aged pollutants through suppression of the mixing layers as suggested by a previous study at a different location. The morning peak is caused by calm wind conditions followed by the transitional growth of the nocturnal boundary layer. It is found that the thermally driven mountain – valley wind circulations are responsible for ventilation of pollutants. The WRF simulations showed that a sophisticated double moment bulk microphysics parameterization scheme performed best, which did not show any statistically significant difference compared to the observed data at 80% confidence interval using a Chi-squared goodness of best fit test. A sensitivity analysis of aerosol and temperature perturbations on the monsoon precipitation was conducted. We found that the model represented the first indirect effect reasonably well however, rainfall was not particularly sensitive to the aerosol perturbations used, due to the poorly documented role of the ice phase processes which assume a greater importance in this region due to the influence of topography and diurnal heating cycle. Further model studies focusing on chemical properties of aerosol and sensitivity of Ice Nuclei (IN) to precipitation in this region are recommended. In contrast, the effects of temperature perturbation were found to be significant, more so than the currently modelled aerosol indirect effects, suggesting that reduced frequency but intense rain events are likely over the Himalayas as the climate warms.
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Blain, Alasdair Peter. "Understanding and Modelling Large-Scale Change in the Vegetation of the British Countryside." Thesis, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, 2010. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.512156.
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Caban, Alisia Rose 1979. "Development and initial validation of the Multicultural Competence Change Scale for psychology trainees." Thesis, University of Oregon, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1794/11143.
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xvii, 169 p. : ill. A print copy of this thesis is available through the UO Libraries. Search the library catalog for the location and call number.The development, maintenance, and integration of multicultural competence into all aspects of psychologists' work is critical to ethical practice in an increasingly diverse society. Measurement of multicultural competency is critical to investigating the development of multicultural competence and the effectiveness of multicultural competency training. However, existing measures of multicultural competence are limited in scope and are not congruent with the conceptualization of multicultural competence as a lifelong process. The purpose of this dissertation study was to address the limitations of existing instrumentation through development and initial validation of the Multicultural Competence Change Scale (MCCS). The MCCS assesses the development of multicultural competence from a "stages of change" perspective. The stages of change model provides a framework for assessing subtle cognitive, emotional, and behavioral modifications indicative of change. Participants included 221 counseling, clinical, and school psychology graduate students. An exploratory factor analysis and the generalized graded unfolding model were used to establish the MCCS factor structure. The MCCS was found to have a five factor structure, with each factor representing one of the stages of change. Internal consistency reliabilities for the MCCS subscales ranged from .64 - .74. Estimates of validity were obtained by examining relationships between the MCCS and other measures, such as the Multicultural Awareness, Knowledge, and Skills Survey, Counselor Edition, Revised (MAKSS-CE-R). The MCCS Precontemplation, Contemplation, and Preparation subscales were significantly and negatively correlated with the MAKSS-CE-R, and the Action and Maintenance subscales were significantly and positively correlated with the MAKSS-CE-R. Examination of the sensitivity of the MCCS to respondent variability revealed that psychology trainees' who participated in a greater number of diversity-related trainings, who currently participate in diversity-related research, and who are members of underrepresented groups based on ethnicity, sexual orientation, and ability were more likely to be in either the action or maintenance stage of change. The MCCS provides a novel approach to multicultural competence assessment; however, it is still in the initial stages of development and additional items are needed to strengthen the factor structure and psychometric properties of the instrument.
Committee in charge: Ellen McWhirter, Chairperson, Counseling Psychology and Human Services; Paul Yovanoff, Member, Educational Methodology, Policy, and Leadership; Krista Chronister, Member, Counseling Psychology and Human Services; Michael Hames-Garcia, Outside Member, Ethnic Studies
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Lee, Sang Hyun 1973. "Dynamic quality and change management for large scale concurrent design and construction projects." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/85383.
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Moll, Peter Graham. "The structure of commercial agriculture in South Africa : a quantitative approach to economies of scale, farm size change and technical change." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1988. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.302977.
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Krapek, John P. "Landscape-scale establishment and population spread of yellow-cedar (Callitropsis nootkatensis) at a leading northern range edge." Thesis, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2016. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10246079.
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Yellow-cedar is a long-lived conifer of the North Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest region that is thought to be undergoing a continued natural range expansion in southeast Alaska. Yellow-cedar is locally rare in northeastern portions of the Alexander Archipelago, and the fairly homogenous climate and forest conditions across the region suggest that yellow-cedar’s rarity could be due to its local migrational history rather than constraints on its growth. Yellow-cedar trees in northern range edge locations appear to be healthy, with few dead trees; additionally, yellow-cedar tend to be younger than co-dominant mountain and western hemlock trees, indicating recent establishment in existing forests.
To explore yellow-cedar’s migration in the region, and determine if the range is expanding into unoccupied habitat, I located 11 leading edge yellow-cedar populations near Juneau, Alaska. I used the geographic context of these populations to determine the topographic, climatic, and disturbance factors associated with range edge population establishment. I used those same landscape variables to model suitable habitat for the species at the range edge. Based on habitat modeling, yellow-cedar is currently only occupying 0.8 percent of its potential landscape niche in the Juneau study area. Tree ages indicate that populations are relatively young for the species, indicating recent migration, and that most populations established during the Little Ice Age climate period (1100 – 1850).
To determine if yellow-cedar is continuing to colonize unoccupied habitat in the region, I located 29 plots at the edges of yellow-cedar stands to measure regeneration and expansion into existing forest communities. Despite abundant suitable habitat, yellow-cedar stand expansion appears stagnant in recent decades. On average, seedlings only dispersed 4.65 m beyond stand boundaries and few seedlings reached mature heights both inside and outside of existing yellow-cedar stands. Mature, 100 – 200-year-old trees were often observed abruptly at stand boundaries, indicating that most stand boundaries have not moved in the past ~150 years. When observed, seedlings were most common in high light understory plant communities and moderately wet portions of the soil drainage gradient, consistent with the species’ autecology in the region.
Despite an overall lack of regeneration via seed, yellow-cedar is reproducing via asexual layering in high densities across stands. Layering may be one strategy this species employs to slowly infill habitat and/or persist on the landscape until conditions are more favorable for sexual reproduction. This study leads to a picture of yellow-cedar migration as punctuated, and relatively slow, in southeast Alaska. Yellow-cedar’s migration history and currently limited spread at the northeastern range edge should be considered when planning for the conservation and management of this high value tree under future climate scenarios.
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Slater, Steven J. "Wyoming's riparian bird communities issues of scale and human-caused vegetation and landscape change /." Laramie, Wyo. : University of Wyoming, 2006. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1212779261&sid=1&Fmt=2&clientId=18949&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
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Rivington, Michael. "Climate change uncertainty evaluation, impacts modelling and resilience of farm scale dynamics in Scotland." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/5274.
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This Thesis explored a range of approaches to study the uncertainty and impacts associated with climate change at the farm scale in Scotland. The research objective was to use a process of uncertainty evaluation and simulation modelling to provide evidence of how primary production components of agriculture in Scotland may change under a future climate. The work used a generic Integrated Modelling Framework to structure the following sequence of investigations: Evaluate a Regional Climate Model‟s hindcast estimates (1960-1990) against observed weather data; Develop bias correction „downscaling factors‟ to be applied to the Regional Climate Model‟s future estimates; Evaluate the impacts of weather data sources (observed and modelled) on estimates made by a cropping systems model (CropSyst); Estimate values for a range of agro-meteorological metrics using observed and estimated downscaled future weather data; Simulate spring barley and winter wheat growth using CropSyst with observed and modelled weather data; Develop CropSyst in order to represent grass growth, evaluate estimates against a set of a priori criteria and determine suitability for use in a whole farm model. Conduct counter-factual assessments of the impacts of climate change and potential adaptation options using a whole farm model (LADSS). The study aimed to use tools on a spectrum of land use modelling complexity: agro-meteorological metrics (simple), CropSyst (intermediate), and the whole-farm integrated model (complex). Such an approach had a path dependency, in that to use the livestock system model component within the whole farm model, CropSyst had to make estimates of an acceptable quality for grass production. CropSyst however failed to meet the a priori evaluation criteria. This, coupled with technical and time constraints in running LADSS, led to the decision not to run the whole farm model. The findings were organised within the concepts of resilience and adaptive capacity. Results gained showed that the HadRM3 Regional Climate Model was capable of making both good and poor estimates of weather variables in the UK, and that downscaling improved the match between hindcast and observed weather data significantly. A sensitivity analysis involving introducing uncertainty from weather data sources within CropSyst showed that care was needed in interpreting estimates of future crop production. The agro-meteorological metrics indicated that whilst growing season length increases, the date of end of field capacity does not. The projected changes in crop production will likely be more positive if crop responses to elevated CO2 are considered. However, there will be additional constraints on crop growth due to increases in duration and magnitude of periods of growth limiting soil water deficits. Without adaptation to crop varieties with slower phenological development, yield decreases are seen in spring barley and winter wheat. The thesis concludes, whilst recognising the caveats and limitations of the methods used and the multiple range of external influencing issues, that the biophysical impacts at the farm scale in Scotland are within the boundaries of resilience, given that achievable adaptation options exist and are undertaken. The dynamics of farm scale management will need to adjust to cope with higher levels of water stress, but opportunities will also arise for greater flexibility in land use mixes. Crop yield can increase due to more favourable growing conditions and cultivar adaptations. These conclusions, when placed within the context of climate change impacts and adaptive cycles at a global scale, indicate that agriculture in Scotland has the potential to cope with the impacts but that substantial changes are required in farming practices.
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Smart, Simon. "National scale vegetation change in Britain since 1978 : an analysis of pattern, and process." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.417157.
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Costa, Sérgio Souza. "Regional scale agent-based modelling of land change: evolving institutional arrangements in frontier areas." Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), 2012. http://urlib.net/sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19/2012/10.30.12.50.
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Esta tese discute o uso de modelos baseados em agentes para capturar a mudança de uso da terra em grandes áreas de fronteira. Os modelos baseados em agentes atuais são empregados em pequenas áreas, onde informações individuais são mais acessíveis. Em escalas regionais, os modeladores precisam descrever as tomadas de decisão coletiva. O trabalho apresenta duas ideias para lidar com as complexidades de modelos baseados em agentes em tais escalas: arranjos institucionais e autômatos híbridos. Arranjos institucionais ajudam a modelar a interação multi- agente, explicando por que, apesar de existirem regras e normas de uso da terra, essas regras nem sempre são seguidas. Um autômato híbrido combina uma máquina de estado discreto com ações contínuas em um dado estado. Este formalismo captura estados e transições de agentes em uma simulação e ajuda a construir modelos expressivos, onde as estratégias dos agentes evoluem dependendo de fatores locais e externos. Nós validamos nossas ideias através da construção de um modelo de desmatamento em uma área de 60.000 km2 na Amazônia. Os resultados mostram que precisamos definir arranjos diferentes para capturar as mudanças no comportamento dos agentes e como eles reagem as condições externas. Assim, combinando as ideias de arranjos institucionais e autômatos híbridos melhoramos o poder explicativo dos modelos de agentes para escalas regionais.This thesis discusses the use of agent-based models for capturing land change in large frontier areas. Applying agent models in such areas is not straightforward, given the lack of data. To date, most agent based models of land frontiers study local areas using in-situ information. At regional scales, agent-based modellers need additional ways to describe collective decision-making. The work presents two ideas to deal with the complexities of agent-based models at such scales: institutional arrangements and states. Institutional arrangements help to model multi-agent interaction by explaining why, although there are rules and norms for land use, these rules are not always followed. This formalism captures states and transitions of agents in a simulation and helps to build expressive models, where the agent strategies evolve depending of local and external factors. We validate our ideas by building a deforestation model in an area of 60,000 km2 in Amazonia. Results show that we need to set different arrangements to capture changes in agents´ behaviour, as they react to external conditions. Thus, combining the ideas of institutional arrangements and states improves the explanatory power of agent models for regional scales.
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Wimmer, Christian L. "Assessing item and scale sensitivity to therapeutic change on the College Adjustment Scales : working toward a counseling center specific outcome questionnaire /." Diss., CLICK HERE for online access, 2007. http://contentdm.lib.byu.edu/ETD/image/etd2405.pdf.
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Wimmer, Christian L. "Assessing Item and Scale Sensitivity to Therapeutic Change on the College Adjustment Scales: Working Toward a Counseling Center Specific Outcome Questionnaire." BYU ScholarsArchive, 2008. https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/etd/1384.
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Many college counseling centers use outcome measures to track therapeutic change for their clientele. These questionnaires have traditionally looked primarily at a client's symptom distress (e.g. depression, anxiety, suicidality, etc.) and are used to detect changes in the client's life that are due to therapy. Unfortunately, there is no measure that has been exclusively created and validated for use with college students. The College Adjustment Scales (CAS) form a multidimensional psychological measure designed specifically for use in college and university settings. Even though the CAS was created as a screening tool, it contains items that provide insight into changes that are possibly taking place for college students in therapy that are not measured by current outcome questionnaires. The purpose of this study was to determine which items and scales on the CAS were sensitive to therapeutic change for college students, thus assessing the validity of the test as an outcome measure and providing data for the development of future college counseling specific outcome questionnaires. This study used hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) to generate slopes that represent change over time for treatment and control groups. These slopes were compared to each other in order to determine whether each item and scale was sensitive to therapeutic change. The control sample consisted of 127 student participants that were not in therapy. The treatment sample was archival and consisted of 409 student clients. Seven of the nine scales were found to be sensitive to therapeutic change. However, 45 of the 108 individual items did not meet the set criteria. Because of these findings, the creators of the CAS are encouraged to revise the measure if it is to be used as an outcome questionnaire. In addition, researchers and clinicians should consider these results and take care not to treat this measure as an instrument that is wholly sensitive to therapeutic change for the college population. Items found to be sensitive to therapeutic change can be used to create a new outcome measure specifically for counseling centers.
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Santos, Mateus Costa. "Towards understanding the impact of climate change on livelihoods, local knowledge and agriculture-based climate change coping practices of small-scale farmers of the Ebenhaeser community." University of the Western Cape, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/11394/4796.
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Magister Artium (Development Studies) - MA(DVS)Climate Change (CC) is arguably the most pressing topic of our modern society. The acceleration in magnitude and frequency of climate variability associated with it, along with the overall change of climate patterns threatens to push their adaptive capacity to breaking point, hinting at the significant impact that CC will have on the livelihoods of small-scale farmers of the developing world, and on South Africa in particular. This research project aims to investigate how local knowledge and agriculture-based coping practices of small-scale farmers of the Ebenhaeser community are adapted to deal with and attempt to reduce the vulnerability of their livelihood strategies to CC. This illustrative study followed a qualitative methodology, using qualitative data collection (in-depth and semistructured interviews, as well as special focus group discussions) and analysis (thematic ordering) methods to fulfil its aim. This study revealed that local farmers were able to identify changes in climate which were hazardous to their livelihoods and that they have been developing coping practices in response the CC. Furthermore, this analysis showed that local small-scale farmers used their local body of knowledge as a basis for the development of these coping practices, and that this local knowledge base itself has been affected by CC. An important finding of this study was the extent to which local social, historic, economic, political and physical conditions influence the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the smallscale farmers of the Ebenhaeser community. The findings of this study opened our eyes to the realities of CC and its impacts on and adaptation efforts of small-scale farmers of the Ebenhaeser community. The study show ed that unless these issues are addressed in a comprehensive and holistic manner, there is no real prospect of sustainable, long-term CC adaption solutions for the small-scale farmers of this area, and conceivably none for many more rural communities in South Africa.
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Cohen, Jeremy. "Climate Change Drives Outbreaks of Emerging Infectious Disease and Phenological Shifts." Scholar Commons, 2016. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/6483.
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Climate change is expected to impact species by altering infectious disease outcomes, modifying community composition, and causing species to shift their phenology, body sizes and range distributions. However, the outcomes of these impacts are often controversial; for example, scientists have debated whether climate change will exacerbate emerging infectious disease and which species are at greatest risk to advance their phenology. There reason for these controversies may be that climate change is impacting diverse processes across a wide range of ecological scales, as the interplay between fine-scale processes and broad-scale dynamics can often cause unpredictable changes to the biosphere. Therefore, it is important to consider how ecological processes change across spatial, temporal and allometric scales in order to understand the impacts of climate change. For example, if community composition controls disease distributions at small spatial scales while abiotic factors do so at large, regional scales, studies conducted at a single spatial scale may misestimate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Because small organisms acclimate quickly, they may track their phenology to climatic factors over shorter temporal scales than large organisms. In addition, small organisms have wider thermal breadths, or temperature ranges where performance is relatively strong, than large organisms. This may cause cold-adapted hosts to face performance gaps with parasites at warmer temperatures than those where host or parasite performance peaks, putting them at risk when the climate warms.
I began my dissertation work by examining how spatial scale modulates the observed effects of human modifications to ecological processes. Humans are altering the distribution of species by changing the climate and disrupting biotic interactions and dispersal. A fundamental hypothesis in spatial ecology suggests that these effects are scale-dependent; biotic interactions should shape distributions at local scales while climate should control them at regional scales. Thus, common single-scale analyses might be unable to accurately estimate the impacts of anthropogenic modifications on biodiversity and the environment because they may miss effects at other scales. However, the large-scale datasets and computing power necessary to test scale hypotheses have not been available until recently. I conducted a cross-continental, cross-scale (almost five orders of magnitude) analysis of the influence of biotic, abiotic, and dispersal processes on the distribution of three emerging pathogens: the amphibian chytrid fungus implicated in worldwide amphibian declines, and West Nile virus and the bacterium that causes Lyme disease (Borrelia burgdorferi), which are responsible for ongoing human health crises. For all three pathogens, biotic factors were only significant predictors of distributions at local scales (~102-103 km2), whereas climate factors and a proxy for dispersal limitations were almost always only significant at relatively larger, regional scales (>104 km2). Spatial autocorrelation analyses revealed that biotic factors were relatively more variable at smaller scales whereas climatic factors were more variable at larger scales, consistent with the prediction that factors should be important at the scales they vary the most. Finally, no single scale could detect the importance of all three categories of processes. My results highlight that common, single-scale analyses can misrepresent the true impact of anthropogenic modifications on biodiversity and the environment.
Although it is important to understand how ecological processes affect patterns across scales, a critical step towards understanding the ecological impacts of climate change is to develop cross-scale frameworks that can predict these patterns. Thus, I proceeded to develop a framework to help understand how species are altering their phenology, or the timing of seasonal activities, using data collected across spatial and temporal scales. Phenological shifts are concerning because they can cause species declines by creating asynchronies or “mismatches” in plant–pollinator, plant–herbivore, and host–parasite interactions. Although advancements in the phenology of plants and animals have been widely reported and synthesized, several open knowledge gaps of critical concern have persisted. First, although many phenological studies and syntheses assume climate change as an important driver of phenological shifts, many do so without explicitly testing for any effect of climate, and among those that have, standardized climate data are rarely used. As a consequence, it remains unclear which climatic variables are driving shifts in phenology and whether geographical heterogeneity in these variables across regional scales has impacted their predictive power to detect ecological trends. Second, one of the chief concerns about species shifting the timing of their phenologies is the possibly of ecological mismatches, or asynchrony in the timing of species interactions, especially in mutualisms. I hypothesized that across regional scales, factors driving seasonality would also drive phenological shifts. I also hypothesized that small species might shift their phenology faster than large organisms because they acclimate to new conditions more easily. I addressed these questions by synthesizing 1,011 published time series of animal phenology and historic global climate data using a meta-analytical framework. I found that while temperature drives phenological responses at high latitudes, low-latitude shifts are driven by precipitation. Small body size and ectothermy were associated with strong phenological shifts, suggesting emerging asynchrony between hosts and parasites and predators and prey.
Finally, I looked at how variation across allometric scales might impact host-parasite interactions in the context of changing temperatures. Small organisms have larger performance breadths, or temperature ranges where performance is relatively high, than large organisms, and thus pathogens should typically have broader performance breadths than hosts. Therefore, the performance gap between pathogens and cold- and warm-adapted hosts should occur at relatively warm and cold temperatures, respectively. To test this hypothesis, which I coin the thermal mismatch hypothesis, we quantified the temperature-dependent susceptibility of “cold-“ and “warm-adapted” amphibian species (Atelopus zeteki, Osteopilus septentrionalis, and Anaxyrus terrestris) to the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) using laboratory experiments and field prevalence estimates from 4,775 host populations. In both the laboratory and field, I found that peak susceptibility for cold- and warm-adapted hosts occurred at relatively warm and cool temperatures, respectively, providing support for the thermal mismatch hypothesis. Finally, I found that the temperature-dependent A. zeteki mortality patterns observed in our experiment accurately predicted historic extinctions of Atelopus spp., suggesting that climate change contributed to the extinctions. My results suggest that as climate change shifts hosts away from their optimal temperatures, the probability of infectious disease outbreaks may increase, but the effect will depend on the host species and the direction of the climate shift. My findings partly explain the tremendous variation in species’ responses to climate change.
Based on the results of my dissertation, I conclude that climate change has diverse effects on ecology across scales. Biotic interactions control disease distributions at small, local spatial scales while abiotic factors do at large scales, suggesting that climate change may impact species distributions differently at different scales. Across temporal scales, differences in acclimation rates could be affecting which species are more likely to shift their phenology. Finally, across allometric scales, differences in thermal breadths between individuals of different body sizes could alter host-parasite interactions by causing hosts to be susceptible to disease even at conditions far from where parasites perform best. Thus, I believe that my dissertation has contributed to what we understand about how scale relates to disease and biodiversity declines in the context of climate change.
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Wee, Sang-Kwon. "Microscale observables for heat and mass transport in sub-micron scale evaporating thin film." Diss., Texas A&M University, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/312.
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A mathematical model is developed to describe the micro/nano-scale fluid flow and heat/mass transfer phenomena in an evaporating extended meniscus, focusing on the transition film region under nonisothermal interfacial conditions. The model incorporates thermocapillary stresses at the liquid-vapor interface, a slip boundary condition on the solid wall, polarity contributions to the working fluid field, and binary mixture evaporation. The analytical results show that the adsorbed film thickness and the thin film length decrease with increasing superheat by the thermocapillary stresses, which influences detrimentally the evaporation process by degrading the wettability of the evaporating liquid film. In contrast, the slip effect and the binary mixture enhance the stability of thin film evaporation. The slip effect at the wall makes the liquid in the transition region flow with smaller flow resistance and thus the length of the transition region increases. In addition, the total evaporative heat flow rate increases due to the slip boundary condition. The mixture of pentane and decane increases the length of the thin film by counteracting the thermocapillary stress, which enhances the stability of the thin film evaporation. The polarity effect of water significantly elongates the thin film length due to the strong adhesion force of intermolecular interaction. The strong interaction force restrains the liquid from evaporation for a polar liquid compared to a non-polar liquid. In the experimental part, laser induced fluorescence (LIF) thermometry has been used to measure the microscale temperature field of a heated capillary tube with a 1 mm by 1 mm square cross section. For the temperature measurement, the calibration curve between the temperature and the fluorescent intensity ratio of Rhodamine-B and Rhodamine-110 has been successfully obtained. The fluorescent intensity ratio provides microscale spatial resolution and good temperature dependency without any possible bias error caused by illuminating light and background noise usually encountered in conventional LIF techniques. For the validation of the calibration curve obtained, thermally stratified fields established inside a glass cuvette of 10 mm width were measured. The measurement result showed a good agreement with the linear prediction. The temperature measurement in a 1 mm capillary tube could provide the feasible method of temperature measurement for the thin film region in the future.
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Titley, David W. "Intensification and structure change of super Typhoon Flo as related to the large-scale environment." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 1998. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA350746.
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Dissertation (Ph.D. in Meteorology) Naval Postgraduate School, June 1998."June 1998." Dissertation supervisor(s): Russell L. Elsberry. Includes bibliographical references (p. 355-365). Also available online.
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Miller, Scott N. "Scale effects of geometric complexity, misclassification error and land cover change in distributed hydrologic modeling." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2002. http://etd.library.arizona.edu/etd/GetFileServlet?file=file:///data1/pdf/etd/azu_e9791_2002_216_sip1_w.pdf&type=application/pdf.
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McCathie, Giles Nolan. "A large scale analysis of the JETS programme using a model of clinically significant change." Thesis, University of Leicester, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/36074.
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Purpose: The study investigates the effectiveness of JETS, a Cognitive Behavioural Programme, designed for young people (16-18 years) in custody. The research explores group and individual level change against short and long term outcomes, including reconviction and re-imprisonment. Associations between outcomes are investigated, as is the role of individual response to treatment. Method: JETS participants were compared with a custody comparison group on short term measures that are: Malevolent Aggression, Social Anxiety, Social Self Esteem, Impulsivity, Venturesomeness, Empathy, and Locus of Control. Individual change on each measure was explored using a model of Clinically Significant Change (Jacobson and Truax, 2001). Reconviction and re-imprisonment rates at both 12 and 24 months were investigated, including analysis of days post release. Interactions between response to treatment and reconviction were explored. Results: JETS participants improved significantly better than the comparison group on Malevolent Aggression and Locus of Control. JETS participants showed significantly higher levels of Reliable Change and Cut off on Locus of Control as well as being significantly more likely to achieve Reliable Change on 1 or more of the short term measures. JETS participants were significantly less likely to be reconvicted or receive a sentence of imprisonment at 12 and 24 months post release. They also achieve significantly longer periods of release prior to reconviction or re-imprisonment over both 12 and 24 months, whilst controlling for risk. No associations between change on short term measures and reconviction or re-imprisonment were identified. Associations between Time 2 scores on Impulsivity Locus of Control and Social Anxiety and measures of reoffending were observed over both 12 and 24 months periods. Conclusions: This research supports JETS as an effective Offending Behaviour intervention for young people in custody. It demonstrates the importance of multiple level evaluations for both treatment and research purposes. Implications for treatment are discussed.
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Centoni, Federico. "Global scale modelling of ozone deposition processes and interaction between surface ozone and climate change." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/25454.
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Atmospheric concentrations of surface ozone (O3) are strongly affected by deposition to the biosphere. Deposition processes are very sensitive to turbulence, temperature, relative humidity and soil moisture deficit and are expected to respond to global climate change, with implications for both air quality (e.g. human health) and ecosystem services (e.g. crop yields). In this PhD study, the global chemistry aerosol model UKCA (United Kingdom Chemistry Aerosol model) dry deposition scheme was thoroughly investigated. Some errors in the existing implementation of the current UKCA stomatal resistance and in-canopy aerodynamic resistance terms for O3 and NOw (NO2, PAN, PPAN, MPAN) were identified and corrected (WES scheme). These model corrections led to a decrease of the total annual dry deposition of -150 Tg(O3) yr-1 (-13%) which brings UKCA more in line with multi-model inter-comparison estimates. This was associated with a large increase of surface O3 concentration over land in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) with values up to 12 ppb (+50%) higher on annual average. Many studies have shown that O3 stomatal uptake by vegetation, which is the pathway leading to damage, accounts for 40-60% of total deposition on average. The remaining non-stomatal deposition flux is to external foliar surfaces, and soil. A more mechanistic non-stomatal dry deposition approach along with a scheme to simulate the effect of moisture on foliar surfaces on the stomatal transport (ZHG scheme) was introduced in UKCA to study the relative contributions of O3 flux occurring to stomatal and non-stomatal pathways at the global scale, and to explore the sensitivity of simulated surface O3 and O3 deposition flux. The ZHG scheme, led to significant changes in the O3 dry deposition velocity (Vd) (+40% in the North Hemisphere over boreal forests and -30% over tropical regions on annual average). The results of this study show that the ZHG scheme significantly changes the partitioning between stomatal and non-stomatal O3 flux. The non-stomatal fraction increased throughout the year and considerably during the cooler season and in spring (with maxima values by up to 60% for C3 grass and by up to 70% for needle leaf trees). The performance of both UKCA dry deposition schemes were compared with measurements, focussing on the diurnal and seasonal variations of the dry deposition velocity terms and the partitioning of O3 fluxes between stomatal and non-stomatal sinks. Overall, both UKCA dry deposition schemes capture the diurnal variations of Vd reasonably well. However, this study highlighted difficulties in comparing large grid (~280 x 390 km at mid-latitudes) averaged modelled values with site and vegetation specific characteristics of the measured exchange processes (~1 km2) and the driving meteorological variables. These differences in scale are a large source of uncertainty in the comparison of measured and modelled O3 Vd. Off-line simulation tests conducted on the non-stomatal deposition component with the ZHG scheme demonstrated the importance of modelling some key environmental and meteorological factors accurately (e.g. relative humidity, friction velocity, leaf area index). This was found to be crucial in order to improve O3 Vd model performance as well as improving the representation of specific vegetation properties. A comparison of the modelled global surface O3 concentration against observations both in the NH and SH revealed that the model performs well in the NH using both schemes, capturing the observed surface O3 cycle and the absolute values. The ZHG scheme led to a reduction of the annual bias (up to -13.5% on average) in the NH monitoring sites considered for this study. This is associated with a decrease in O3 deposition simulated with ZHG (as much as of -20% on annual average). By contrast, the seasonal cycle and absolute values of the observed surface O3 are not well reproduced by the model across the SH monitoring sites used in this study and a larger bias was found using the ZHG scheme (60% on average) compared to WES scheme (47% on average), as a consequence of an increase in O3 deposition (as much as of +20% on annual average) calculated with ZHG. A future climate integration for the 2090s using RCP 8.5 scenario was used to investigate the response of UKCA modelled O3 to climate change. The effect of climate change (by altering only the GHG concentrations predicted with RCP 8.5) on the dry deposition sink of O3 was addressed contrasting the two non-stomatal deposition parameterizations, and ignoring the changes in land-use and anthropogenic emissions. The study showed that O3 Vd over land declines from 2000 to 2100, and most strongly over vegetated areas (up to -24% over S. America, -17% over N. America and -10% over Europe). Climate change led to an increase of surface O3 concentration over land (by up to 20%). Whilst the two schemes behave similarly, and an increase in turbulence has been identified as the main driver, the decrease in land Vd is generally stronger in ZHG. This effect is more important over N. America and Eurasia where ZHG exhibits larger differences in deposition compared to WES as a result of changing climate. The increase in surface O3 over Arctic and Antarctic regions shows the effect that changes in O3 deposition might have on the long-range transport of O3. Finally, the influence of climate change on the partitioning of the O3 deposition flux was examined. This analysis revealed that more O3 is predicted to deposit through stomatal pathways with ZHG over N. America, C. Europe and E. Asia (up to +30%) compared to WES as a result of changing climate. Given that ZHG scheme captures the influence of meteorology and changing climate on surface O3 better than WES, it was concluded that modelled surface O3 using ZHG scheme showed a larger sensitivity to a changing climate than WES. These results imply potentially important effects of climate change on tropospheric O3, degrading air quality through the later decades of this century.
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Chávez-Presa, Jorge A. "Economies of scale, economies of scope and structural change in the Mexican commercial banking system /." The Ohio State University, 1988. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu14875882498246.
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